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heath_harshman4
01-31-2008, 11:23 PM
Great game Greggy.

speedevil
01-31-2008, 11:26 PM
what does that game show about greg to the success of this team?

DoubleDuke Dad
01-31-2008, 11:26 PM
Great game Greggy.
He is definitely the MOTM.

banneheim
01-31-2008, 11:30 PM
It is amazing how Paulus plays when he has a little confidence, no hesitation on shooting, passing, etc.

pamtar
01-31-2008, 11:33 PM
Greg obviously reads this board!;)

Methodistman
01-31-2008, 11:34 PM
It's amazing how well Paulus plays even when so many people would rather see Smith in the game . . .

Sorry - hate to hate on the doubters (and yes, you know who you are). Paulus is our PG - quit playing both sides of the fence (again, you know how harsh that can be)

watzone
01-31-2008, 11:59 PM
I can honestly say that I never opened the Paulus-Smith thread.

Methodistman
02-01-2008, 12:00 AM
and we are all grateful - thanks Mark

Classof06
02-01-2008, 12:02 AM
Paulus definitely gets the game ball. He was phenomenal. Another 9-point halftime deficit, yet another different player stepping up in the 2nd half. We have to have better 1st halves (against Carolina for sure) but this team is definitely resilient. Extremely impressive performance as was NC State's for most of the game. They were much better than I thought they'd be.

shadowfax336
02-01-2008, 12:03 AM
Is that we should bench Nolan and just let Paulus play 35 minutes a game the rest of the year now that his clear superiority has been demonstrated clearly for all to see

tbyers11
02-01-2008, 12:05 AM
I can honestly say that I never opened the Paulus-Smith thread.

That's impressive. Wish that I had your willpower. You didn't miss anything.

IUGrad03
02-01-2008, 12:11 AM
No only was Greg all around fantastic tonight, he also gives the most humble post game interview I've ever heard (consistently, not just tonight). Bob Harris tried everything he could to get Greg to admit he had a good game, but Greg consistently deflected the attention to his teammates. Bob finally said, laughing, "I'm just not going to get anything out of you tonight am I?" Greg simplied replied, "No sir, No sir." and then signed off by saying "Thank you Mr. Harris." Priceless.

BD80
02-01-2008, 12:27 AM
Great game Greggy.

Thanks for recanting, sort of. Did this change your opinion?

Now all we need is to hear from DukeHoopsGuru, mr. synellinden, elvis14, dukie8, and SilkyJ,

billybreen
02-01-2008, 12:53 AM
Greg was simply phenomenal tonight. What an amazing performance in the second half.

When Greg was coming out of high school, I remember his passing and court vision being his most discussed assets. I frankly wasn't expecting his shooting to be so spectacular.

mehmattski
02-01-2008, 01:13 AM
I must say... after the game I wanted to start this very thread, challenging the nattering nabobs of negativity and such.

I still think Duke is better off having a split-time PG, running the hot hand to victory. It was painfully obvious that Nolan was not the hot hand tonight. Greg stepped it up, and got himself to the foul line a bunch. He also seemed to run off screens and release 3-pointers that reminded me a bit of JJ. Great game.

stickdog
02-01-2008, 02:51 AM
Over Paulus' last eight games, he has 27 assists, 15 threes and 13 steals against just 7 turnovers.

That's a 3.9 assist to turnover ratio, a 5.7 assist plus steal to turnover ratio, and a 1.9 steal to turnover ratio.

Per game averages: 11.9 points, 3.4 assists, 1.9 threes, 1.6 steals, 0.9 turnovers

He's also hit 30-34 free throws (88%) over this span, despite missing 3 tonight.

Devilsfan
02-01-2008, 03:24 AM
but let's not forget it was State! A team that scored all of 15 points in the first half against unc. One single effort can not erase the AWFUL play of the team in the first 20 mins. That said, instead of our usual stall Scheyer to Jordan made lots of fans happy.

dukemomLA
02-01-2008, 04:05 AM
Even with his AMAZING game, Greg P is right to deflect all attention to the TEAM! He showed us all his worth tonight -- and also the fun of playing with N. Smith, and being interchangable parts of the equation.

I repeat, I repeat, I repeat, I LOVE THIS TEAM!! Win or lose, it's a joy to watch them play together each and every night. Every game, it's another guy who steps up to the plate. Every game, they 'watch each other's back."

Awesome! So....you players who follow the DBR website (...as you all should) We LOVE you!! Post us back -- if there's anything you need or want...we're there!

Okay...another post to the team: We know that Captain Extraordinaire Markie is leaving us as a senior, but..... the rest of you guys???? Stick it OUT, let's go for 2-3 NCAA Titles in a row. Get a degree (or two)...have the time of your lives. Cherish the experience.

See ya, this year and the next and the next. (I'm a Duke mom. I know where I'm coming from.... or in Duke speak.... I know from where I'm coming)

cspan37421
02-01-2008, 06:59 AM
I still think Duke is better off having a split-time PG, running the hot hand to victory.

The only problem with that is, statistically, there's no advantage to "riding a hot hand." That is, a player who has hit 3 or 4 shots in a row is no more likely to hit the next one than indicated by their season average FG%.

Lots of people believe in the hot hand, but there is no such thing - or at least, not prospectively, only in retrospect.

4decadedukie
02-01-2008, 07:13 AM
Greg Paulus played a GREAT game last night against NCSU: leadership, athleticism, clutch performance, point guard acuity both defensive and offensive, and superb shooting characterized his effort. I also have a visceral feeling that the "mussel" State attempted to exert -- bordering on dirty play -- only increased Gerg's resolve to demonstrate his mastery, where it really counted: on the court and on the scoreboard.

Our team's put a premium on attitude (rather than flash) and on teamwork (rather than high-visibility solo performance). By those standards, Greg Paulus was a TRUE BLUE DEVIL last night and I sincerely congratulate him.

DevilCastDownfromDurham
02-01-2008, 10:36 AM
The only problem with that is, statistically, there's no advantage to "riding a hot hand." That is, a player who has hit 3 or 4 shots in a row is no more likely to hit the next one than indicated by their season average FG%.

Lots of people believe in the hot hand, but there is no such thing - or at least, not prospectively, only in retrospect.

First off, great game Greg!!!! I've been cheering for you (and JCD'd him a LOT on some other boards). Just like Demarcus carried us at UMd, Greg showed his poise and experience by making a tremendous number of great plays. He hit big shots, played some outstanding D, and his passing was back to the level we were treated to his freshman season. The flip behind his back to a trailer really reminded me of some early games where I was so excited about his potential. Greg came through when Duke needed him and I hope this can resurrect his confidence going forward.

For the "hot hand" idea, I agree with you cspan in a mathematical sense, but I think you're underestimating the effect confidence has on shooting. A player who is "feeling it" hasn't just happened to have some hits like on a random number generator. S/he is actually more assured and thus able to hit shots at a higher clip. Without wandering too far into the mystical "power of positive thinking" world of greybeard ;) I'd argue that confidence is one of the most important aspects of a shot. That's why guys like JJ talk about a "shooter's mentality" where you always expect the next shot to go in. The player with a "hot hand" has more confidence and, I'd argue, a better chance at hitting the next shot. Further, a "hot hand" may indicate that a player is using better form, has a better sense of how to exploit a mismatch, or is just more "dialed in" that evening. In that way, it can also be a good predictor of future success over the course of a game.

Just my .02 and way to go go Greg!

mehmattski
02-01-2008, 10:59 AM
The only problem with that is, statistically, there's no advantage to "riding a hot hand." That is, a player who has hit 3 or 4 shots in a row is no more likely to hit the next one than indicated by their season average FG%.

Lots of people believe in the hot hand, but there is no such thing - or at least, not prospectively, only in retrospect.

Yes, of course, in a vacuum, a 50% FG shooter is only 50% likely to hit his next shot... but confidence and shot selection also have a lot to do with it. When I said "hot hand" I was referring not only to shooting but also to all-around play. I'm no multiple-championship-winning coach, and even I could see that Nolan Smith was playing without confidence last night. His head wasn't fully into the game, and that's why Paulus started playing more minutes. This would have been the correct decision even if Paulus didn't have the game of his life.


So the advantage this team has, with two point guards, is that when one of them is having a bad game, for whatever reason (low confidence, bad matchup, poor shooting night), Coach can put in the other guy for some spark. In addition, Coach can talk to the guy having a bad game and try to get him back into it, without sacrificing much on the court.

dw0827
02-01-2008, 11:02 AM
The only problem with that is, statistically, there's no advantage to "riding a hot hand." That is, a player who has hit 3 or 4 shots in a row is no more likely to hit the next one than indicated by their season average FG%.

Lots of people believe in the hot hand, but there is no such thing - or at least, not prospectively, only in retrospect.

Sorry, but I don't agree with you. If you are talking about the roll of the dice, I obviously agree with you. Dice have no memory.

But shooting. That is different. Have you ever been in the zone? I have . . . and I could guarantee you that the next shot is going down. And it did. I don't know if its muscle memory . . . karma . . . clean living . . . or what . . . but when a guy gets hot, the odds go out the window. Ride that sucker til he drops.

darthur
02-01-2008, 11:15 AM
The only problem with that is, statistically, there's no advantage to "riding a hot hand." That is, a player who has hit 3 or 4 shots in a row is no more likely to hit the next one than indicated by their season average FG%.

Like several other people, I find this claim very hard to believe. Do you actually have stats to back it up?

I know for a fact that people have significantly higher shooting percentages if they have just recently shot than if they haven't - this is a cornerstone of Grinell's offensive strategy. It seems that if you've recently *scored*, your shooting percentage ought to be even better.

allenmurray
02-01-2008, 11:20 AM
It seems he believe that the Gamblers Fallacy (which works only on random events like the flip of a coin or rolling dice) applies to human behavior. It doesn't.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

Bluedog
02-01-2008, 11:25 AM
The only problem with that is, statistically, there's no advantage to "riding a hot hand." That is, a player who has hit 3 or 4 shots in a row is no more likely to hit the next one than indicated by their season average FG%.

Lots of people believe in the hot hand, but there is no such thing - or at least, not prospectively, only in retrospect.

The "hot-hand phenomenon" was debunked by in 1985 by T Gilovich, R Vallone, A Tversky - Cognitive Psychology, 1985 (http://wexler.free.fr/library/files/gilovich%20(1985)%20the%20hot%20hand%20in%20basket ball.%20on%20the%20misperception%20of%20random%20s equences.pdf). However, a more recent book takes articles from several scholars and the results are less clear. Judge from yourself from this 2005 book (see page 155 "It's Okay to Believe in the "Hot Hand", page 169 "The Cold Hard Facts about the Hot Hand," and page 175 "Simpson's Paradox and the Hot Hand in Basketball"): A Tversky, T Gilovich - Anthology of Statistics in Sports, 2005 (http://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=t_YuXkffVYYC&oi=fnd&pg=PA169&dq=hot-hand+phenomenon&ots=ALAdJPqvFH&sig=KD6hXoiDNqra153nVZnouDLhqEI#PPA155,M1).

Note: some of these pages may not be available for viewing for free online. See also http://www.questia.com/googleScholar.qst;jsessionid=HjGDp2Z9tZmm5KhslZnZJ Q6x7nQDpzk3B688nrFBGhjSkwypkyym!-102942798?docId=5000299819 for the Simpson's Paradox article, but this also requires a subscription.

dw0827
02-01-2008, 11:32 AM
The "hot-hand phenomenon" was debunked by in 1985 by T Gilovich, R Vallone, A Tversky - Cognitive Psychology, 1985 (http://wexler.free.fr/library/files/gilovich%20(1985)%20the%20hot%20hand%20in%20basket ball.%20on%20the%20misperception%20of%20random%20s equences.pdf). However, a more recent book takes articles from several scholars and the results are less clear. Judge from yourself from this 2005 book (see page 155 "It's Okay to Believe in the "Hot Hand", page 169 "The Cold Hard Facts about the Hot Hand," and page 175 "Simpson's Paradox and the Hot Hand in Basketball"): A Tversky, T Gilovich - Anthology of Statistics in Sports, 2005 (http://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=t_YuXkffVYYC&oi=fnd&pg=PA169&dq=hot-hand+phenomenon&ots=ALAdJPqvFH&sig=KD6hXoiDNqra153nVZnouDLhqEI#PPA155,M1).

Note: some of these pages may not be available for viewing for free online. See also http://www.questia.com/googleScholar.qst;jsessionid=HjGDp2Z9tZmm5KhslZnZJ Q6x7nQDpzk3B688nrFBGhjSkwypkyym!-102942798?docId=5000299819 for the Simpson's Paradox article, but this also requires a subscription.

Yikes . . . this is getting good. I don't have time . . . so can someone write a book report and send it to me?

Indoor66
02-01-2008, 12:38 PM
The "hot-hand phenomenon" was debunked by in 1985 by T Gilovich, R Vallone, A Tversky - Cognitive Psychology, 1985 (http://wexler.free.fr/library/files/gilovich%20(1985)%20the%20hot%20hand%20in%20basket ball.%20on%20the%20misperception%20of%20random%20s equences.pdf). However, a more recent book takes articles from several scholars and the results are less clear. Judge from yourself from this 2005 book (see page 155 "It's Okay to Believe in the "Hot Hand", page 169 "The Cold Hard Facts about the Hot Hand," and page 175 "Simpson's Paradox and the Hot Hand in Basketball"): A Tversky, T Gilovich - Anthology of Statistics in Sports, 2005 (http://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=t_YuXkffVYYC&oi=fnd&pg=PA169&dq=hot-hand+phenomenon&ots=ALAdJPqvFH&sig=KD6hXoiDNqra153nVZnouDLhqEI#PPA155,M1).

Note: some of these pages may not be available for viewing for free online. See also http://www.questia.com/googleScholar.qst;jsessionid=HjGDp2Z9tZmm5KhslZnZJ Q6x7nQDpzk3B688nrFBGhjSkwypkyym!-102942798?docId=5000299819 for the Simpson's Paradox article, but this also requires a subscription.

I am not a statistician, scholar, psychologist or other highly trained intellectually current person but I am a fan and observer of basketball for about 55 years. IMO uninformed but experienced opinion, good shooters can be "hot" and "streak" for many points in a relatively short period of time. That does not mean that they will hit the next shot or not miss during the "Hot Streak", but it does mean that you will win more betting on them than against them during the hot spell.

elvis14
02-01-2008, 02:20 PM
Thanks for recanting, sort of. Did this change your opinion?

Now all we need is to hear from DukeHoopsGuru, mr. synellinden, elvis14, dukie8, and SilkyJ,

I'll chime in if you wish but don't hold your breath on me recanting. I'm really happy that we won the game last night. I'm very happy for Greg, he played a great game and I really enjoyed watching his play last night. What I have said in the past is that I believe Nolan has a bigger upside and that I'd like to see Nolan take minutes from Greg. I believe I described it as a role reversal in one post. I still feel that way. If I turn out to be wrong, then I'm happy because that means that Greg is playing like he did last night and helping us win. I admit that I have been very frustrated with GP's play this season. In particular, I've been frustrated with his defense. I don't consider expressing support for Nolan bashing GP. I was pretty disappointed with Nolan's play last night. I hated seeing him take such a big step back after making so much progress the last several weeks. I did NOT hate seeing Greg step up and play well and help us win. I'm more interested in our team doing well than I am with me being right.

On the "I told you so" issue. I've watched Nolan get better and better as the season has gone on. I have been frustrated with GP's play and have attempted to minimize negative comments about him. If I failed in that attempt, I apologize. At the same time, the old "I told you so" after GP has his one great game for the season against an NCSU team playing with 2 freshman point guards...well lets just say that I'll minimize comments on that as well. :D

mehmattski
02-01-2008, 02:48 PM
On the "I told you so" issue. I've watched Nolan get better and better as the season has gone on. I have been frustrated with GP's play and have attempted to minimize negative comments about him. If I failed in that attempt, I apologize. At the same time, the old "I told you so" after GP has his one great game for the season against an NCSU team playing with 2 freshman point guards...well lets just say that I'll minimize comments on that as well. :D

Of course, one should also note that against those same two freshman point guards on that same NCSU team, Nolan Smith had his worst game of the season....

Magnolia888
02-01-2008, 02:50 PM
I can honestly say that I never opened the Paulus-Smith thread.

Me neither.

Greg Paulus is our point guard. Period. Nolan is a great freshman backup who will only get better with more experience.

Even some of the Paulus haters had to come around on this one. This is funny:

http://stopvitale.collegehoopsnet.com


And perhaps most notably, he was jumping around the court, slapping the floor, enjoying the crowd. It was like two and a half years of being hated on and unable to prove the haters wrong had finally ended it one loud, asthmatic exultation. It was a catharsis. After the game the NC State players credited his pressure defense. Gavin Grant said he was trash-talking and throwing elbows! Greg Paulus! He used to ask permission before fouling someone!

stickdog
02-01-2008, 02:59 PM
elvis14, you are simply biased against Paulus, and every time he does anything wrong, you use this to confirm your bias. In addition, nothing he ever does right can overcome your bias because you just know he's a liability.

The reality is that over his last eight games, Paulus has 13 steals to just 7 turnovers. By any standard, this is simply amazing! Now add in his 27 assists and 15 threes over this stretch together with his 25 consecutive free throws. Now add in Paulus' 64% effective field goal percentage on the season. Now add in the fact that Duke is 18-1 overall and 6-0 in the ACC, with its only loss coming by one point in OT, and your frustration with Paulus' play this season is obviously more reflective of your bias against him than the reality of his performance so far this season.

If NC State's guards are so easy to shred to pieces, why didn't Nolan Smith shred them?

dukestheheat
02-01-2008, 03:18 PM
We need that from Greg, the fire and the ire. If Gavin Grant is worried about Paulus talking some smack, then so be it. Paulus had ice in this veins on several of those shots and he did challenge Costner in the post, as well as taking body shots all night long.

His football toughness is definitely helping him handle the wallops he's getting on the basketball court.

dth.

BD80
02-01-2008, 03:28 PM
the old "I told you so" after GP has his one great game for the season against an NCSU team playing with 2 freshman point guards...

Well thanks for standing up for your opinions. I think we all share the same frustration when GP drives into traffic and gets caught in the air, or is a half-step slower than an opposing guard. We also share the same enthusiasm for Nolan's quickness and vision and poise.

It was the negativity toward GP that drew the ire of some. I think we all get carried away by our arguments.

However, dismissing this game by Greg is churlish. How many times have we had such a great game by a Duke player and yet not considered him one of our best players?

elvis14
02-01-2008, 03:34 PM
Deleted, inflammatory and unnecessary text deleted.

elvis14
02-01-2008, 03:41 PM
However, dismissing this game by Greg is churlish. How many times have we had such a great game by a Duke player and yet not considered him one of our best players?

I didn't mean to dismiss this game by Greg. He played great and I'm happy about that. If he plays this way against better, more experienced guards, I'll be even more happy. Greg doing well does not bother me, it makes me happy. Same with Nolan and every other Blue Devil. I added the point about the level of NCSU's guard play not to dismiss Greg's play but to get the "I told you so" people on here to keep things in perspective.

Let me state this again. I want GP to play well and I support him even if has frustrated me at times. Just because I would like to see Nolan play more at Greg's expense is about me being more positive on Nolan, not b/c I'm bashing Greg. I'll try to be very careful around here not to be negative because I really don't want a reputation as someone who brings negativity to the only board I read every day.

elvis14
02-01-2008, 03:45 PM
Of course, one should also note that against those same two freshman point guards on that same NCSU team, Nolan Smith had his worst game of the season....

Good point (made by you and stickdog) and very true. I'd say it was obvious that Nolan didn't have it last night and as a result he only played 10 minutes. Last night was Greg's night not Nolan's. We won and I'm happy.

I can't believe I responded to this thread :D

mr. synellinden
02-01-2008, 03:50 PM
Thanks for recanting, sort of. Did this change your opinion?

Now all we need is to hear from DukeHoopsGuru, mr. synellinden, elvis14, dukie8, and SilkyJ,

I didn't realize that expressing an opinion that I think we are a better team with Nolan in the lineup vs. GP (while at the same time recognizing that GP is a very good player with different strengths) means that once GP has a good game I would have to "recant," "eat crow" or "change my opinion."

My opinion of Greg went up yesterday, no doubt. It was the first all-around great (stressing great) game he has had this season among several that I would characterize as sub-par. If he plays as well as he did last night on a relatively consistent basis, my opinion of him will change even more. However, he was playing against inferior PG competition and he still played weak defensively in my opinion. He is just never going to be a good on the ball defender and our defense is dependent upon preventing the ball handler from getting dribble penetration or being able to create passing lanes - and I see that as GP's major deficiency. Improvement in that area more than anything will change my opinion.

I would like to see GP play at this level against teams with quick, agile point guards - the type that killed us last year because we will see those type of teams (on Wednesday for sure and in the NCAAs probably) down the road.

I didn't base my original opinion on one game nor does one game completely change it. I have no problem admitting that last night we were a better team with GP in the lineup. I am not yet convinced that is true as a general matter, although if last night's type of performance were achieved more consistently, my opinion would very likely change.

Do you think people's opinions of Lance Thomas are changing during the last several games? That's how it works - you watch the team play and form opinions based on a group of performances. I still believe that for the last six games (prior to NC St.) we played better with NS in the lineup. Last night, that was clearly not the case. And I absolutely hope that GP plays as well for the rest of the season as he did last night.

One more thing, I am not negative on Paulus. There are things about his game I love. About four or five times last night I said to myself, "Paulus is awesome" or "I love Paulus." I root for the guy because his jersey says Duke. That doesn't mean though he can do no wrong - there are plenty of games this season where he has played poorly in my opinion - and that is what goes into any negativity expressed about his play - simply what I see objectively on the court.

Classof06
02-01-2008, 04:00 PM
I'll chime in if you wish but don't hold your breath on me recanting. I'm really happy that we won the game last night. I'm very happy for Greg, he played a great game and I really enjoyed watching his play last night. What I have said in the past is that I believe Nolan has a bigger upside and that I'd like to see Nolan take minutes from Greg. I believe I described it as a role reversal in one post. I still feel that way. If I turn out to be wrong, then I'm happy because that means that Greg is playing like he did last night and helping us win. I admit that I have been very frustrated with GP's play this season. In particular, I've been frustrated with his defense. I don't consider expressing support for Nolan bashing GP. I was pretty disappointed with Nolan's play last night. I hated seeing him take such a big step back after making so much progress the last several weeks. I did NOT hate seeing Greg step up and play well and help us win. I'm more interested in our team doing well than I am with me being right.

On the "I told you so" issue. I've watched Nolan get better and better as the season has gone on. I have been frustrated with GP's play and have attempted to minimize negative comments about him. If I failed in that attempt, I apologize. At the same time, the old "I told you so" after GP has his one great game for the season against an NCSU team playing with 2 freshman point guards...well lets just say that I'll minimize comments on that as well. :D

I'm not going to talk about Nolan here, but like Elvis, I also don't really understand the whole "I told you so" thing. I'll admit I barely looked at the Nolan/Greg thread so I don't know what was said there. Nevertheless, I said it on another thread and I'll say it again: when Greg plays bad, I have no problem saying he played bad. Likewise, when he plays well, I'll be the first one to say so. Paulus played phenomenal last night and in my opinion, it was the best game of his Duke career. I hope to see many many more performances like it.

But I've long felt that some on DBR are way too sensitive when it comes to Greg; IMO, it seems like anytime someone criticizes Greg, it's unreasonably taken as a personal attack on the kid. Furthermore, some of you seem to think that the people who criticize Greg actually want him to fail, which is simply asinine. Greg playing well is great for Duke...which is great for me. Greg struggling is not good for Duke...which is not good for me. Either way, opinions will be expressed; that's what forums and boards are for. Obviously, there are respectful and disrespectful ways to express opinions but lately it seems like even respectfully expressed opinions are still taken as personal attacks. This website is a place where intelligent and passionate fans can share opinions and ideas; that's why I enjoy this site so much. Let's not get too wrapped up in sensitivity where we can't objectively discuss both good and bad. IMO, that would be a sad day for DBR.

I said coming into this year that Greg would have to prove he could play at a higher level and he's been doing that; even before last night. Kudos to Paulus for the year he's having and--believe it or not--I hope he keeps playing like this. If he does, then we can talk about it; if not, we should be able to discuss that as well. Isn't that why we're here?

Saratoga2
02-01-2008, 04:04 PM
Yes, of course, in a vacuum, a 50% FG shooter is only 50% likely to hit his next shot... but confidence and shot selection also have a lot to do with it. When I said "hot hand" I was referring not only to shooting but also to all-around play. I'm no multiple-championship-winning coach, and even I could see that Nolan Smith was playing without confidence last night. His head wasn't fully into the game, and that's why Paulus started playing more minutes. This would have been the correct decision even if Paulus didn't have the game of his life.


So the advantage this team has, with two point guards, is that when one of them is having a bad game, for whatever reason (low confidence, bad matchup, poor shooting night), Coach can put in the other guy for some spark. In addition, Coach can talk to the guy having a bad game and try to get him back into it, without sacrificing much on the court.

It may just be a matter of confidence, but when a player starts hitting, not only does his confidence improve but it seems infectious and the team seems to catch on. Paulus was on fire but also the passing became crisper and others started hitting a high percentage of their shots.

Even Scheyer, who some fans said had a bad game, hit his only shot and also hit his free throws. Pretty good efficiency. He just had to take on the tough job of gaurding a big and athletic guy. I would say his game was pretty good. Smith played some really energetic defense, so he didn't do badly either. It is great to have two capable of playing the point and to have Scheyer who can back up that position as well.

cspan37421
02-01-2008, 04:07 PM
it does mean that you will win more betting on them than against them during the hot spell.

There is considerable academic research that debunks the "hot hand" notion, some of which is referenced above. I do not doubt that a shooter gets confident after a few in a row go in. I've felt it myself (with no one defending me, of course!). But my personal view is that such confidence is due to retrospective events, and does not cause an increased shooting percentage going forward. It can't, really, logically, else shooting percentages would ever increase.

Now, I'm talking about across many, many data points. Not hand-picked players and data. I can see a high shooting percentage occurring during an entire game if there is a big mismatch and no adjustment (help defense, etc). But generally, I think that what we see as a hot hand is entirely because it happened, and has no predictive value. If it does, by all means, bet on it and make money - let us know how it goes, regardless.

Please note that I am not saying that there aren't streak shooters in basketball. I simply don't believe you can identify them in advance, and that there aren't any more streaks (or aren't any longer) than you would expect by chance. In other words, there's still a 1 in 32 chance of flipping 5 heads in a row, and there's still a % chance of hitting 4 three-pointers in a row (about 3%?). So it will happen. I just don't think it has predictive value in the absence of a clear mismatch that can't be defended. Also, I agree, if there is a mechanics issue, that can cause a negative streak. But it may just re-set the mean shooting percentage to a lower level, and the same statistical properties could be observed.

Just my opinion. I look forward to reading the article claiming that Tversky is not right. What is needed is a good prospective test, not a torturing of the data to get it to agree with our own hypothesis.

Bringing the thread back around: Greg was awesome. I love about this team that just about anyone can be the hero on a given night, and we have seen many different heroes during the season. I think it makes it very hard for other teams to prepare for us - we have so many weapons.

Also although may fret about our lack of a 5/big man, I heard recently in some College BB discussions that smaller lineups (like 3G/2F, or even 4G/1F) are a trend. So I'm not too worried, though Carolina poses a formidable challenge with their speed and size.

CDu
02-01-2008, 04:10 PM
Paulus had a great game last night. And he's played solidly (though not necessarily great) in several others recently. He's also had some subpar performances mixed in there. At the same time, Smith was starting to have some pretty solid games. Why is it unreasonable to discuss when Paulus has a bad game?

stickdog
02-01-2008, 04:25 PM
There's nothing unreasonable about wanting to see Smith get a few more minutes at Paulus' expense. What is unreasonable is to be disappointed in Paulus' recent play, because overall Paulus' recent play has been amazingly good.

In terms of evaluating the claim that Duke is playing better with Smith in the game, plus/minus stats bear this out in just 3 of the last 8 games (UVA, Clemson and VT). Over the last 8 games, Duke has outscored opponents by 67 points while Paulus was in the game and 60 points while Smith was in the game, so their per minute plus/minus marks are very similar.

Over Paulus' last eight games, he has 27 assists, 15 threes and 13 steals against just 7 turnovers. That's a 3.9 assist to turnover ratio, a 5.7 assist plus steal to turnover ratio, and a 1.9 steal to turnover ratio. He's also hit 30-34 free throws (88%) over this span, despite missing 3 last night. Paulus has hit at least one three-pointer in 18 out of 19 games this season and in 46 of 52 games dating back to the start of his sophomore campaign. Paulus' per game averages over his last eight games: 11.9 points, 3.4 assists, 1.9 threes, 1.6 steals and 0.9 turnovers.

That's the kind of performance that calls for a sustained round of applause, not a drastic change in minute distribution.

CDu
02-01-2008, 04:42 PM
There's nothing unreasonable about wanting to see Smith get a few more minutes at Paulus' expense. What is unreasonable is to be disappointed in Paulus' recent play, because overall Paulus' recent play has been amazingly good.

In terms of evaluating the claim that Duke is playing better with Smith in the game, plus/minus stats bear this out in just 3 of the last 8 games (UVA, Clemson and VT). Over the last 8 games, Duke has outscored opponents by 67 points while Paulus was in the game and 60 points while Smith was in the game, so their per minute plus/minus marks are very similar.

Over Paulus' last eight games, he has 27 assists, 15 threes and 13 steals against just 7 turnovers. That's a 3.9 assist to turnover ratio, a 5.7 assist plus steal to turnover ratio, and a 1.9 steal to turnover ratio. He's also hit 30-34 free throws (88%) over this span, despite missing 3 last night. Paulus has hit at least one three-pointer in 18 out of 19 games this season and in 46 of 52 games dating back to the start of his sophomore campaign. Paulus' per game averages over his last eight games: 11.9 points, 3.4 assists, 1.9 threes, 1.6 steals and 0.9 turnovers.

That's the kind of performance that calls for a sustained round of applause, not a drastic change in minute distribution.

You're cherry-picking your example a bit now. It may not be intentional, but it's cherry-picking.

When people were really calling for a redistribution of minutes, Paulus WASN'T playing so well. For example, here is Paulus's statline from a few games back, covering the Pittsburgh game through the Clemson game (6 games):

38.8 fg%, 27.5 3pt fg%, 9 ppg, 2.8 assist/game, 1.8 TO/game (1.54 A/TO)

Those are NOT great numbers, and they are CERTAINLY not reason for a sustained round of applause. They are absolutely worthy of a discussion about playing time, in my opinion.

Following that, Paulus had a mediocre game against Va Tech (3/9 fg, 1/5 3pt fg, 10 points, 3 assists, 0 TO). Then, he had a very solid shooting and defense game against Maryland (3/7, 2/3, 12 pts, 2 assists, 1 TO, 4 steals).

Prior to last night, it wasn't unreasonable to still be having a debate about Paulus as a point guard. He was mostly playing shooting guard and game manager. He had some good games (Temple, UVa), some bad games (Pitt, FSU), and some in-between games (Va Tech, Clemson).

If you add this last game in and take out the Pittsburgh game, the stats look great for Paulus. And that's why people aren't clamoring for his benching right now. But don't let one game cloud your judgement, either. Take this game out and add the Pitt game back, and the stats don't look so great.

Last night was a FANTASTIC performance. No one disagrees with that. If he played more like that more frequently, there'd be no discussion about this. But the problem is he throws in a lot of mediocre games and some real clunkers as well.

mr. synellinden
02-01-2008, 05:01 PM
I'm not going to talk about Nolan here, but like Elvis, I also don't really understand the whole "I told you so" thing. I'll admit I barely looked at the Nolan/Greg thread so I don't know what was said there. Nevertheless, I said it on another thread and I'll say it again: when Greg plays bad, I have no problem saying he played bad. Likewise, when he plays well, I'll be the first one to say so. Paulus played phenomenal last night and in my opinion, it was the best game of his Duke career. I hope to see many many more performances like it.

But I've long felt that some on DBR are way too sensitive when it comes to Greg; IMO, it seems like anytime someone criticizes Greg, it's unreasonably taken as a personal attack on the kid. Furthermore, some of you seem to think that the people who criticize Greg actually want him to fail, which is simply asinine. Greg playing well is great for Duke...which is great for me. Greg struggling is not good for Duke...which is not good for me. Either way, opinions will be expressed; that's what forums and boards are for. Obviously, there are respectful and disrespectful ways to express opinions but lately it seems like even respectfully expressed opinions are still taken as personal attacks. This website is a place where intelligent and passionate fans can share opinions and ideas; that's why I enjoy this site so much. Let's not get too wrapped up in sensitivity where we can't objectively discuss both good and bad. IMO, that would be a sad day for DBR.

I said coming into this year that Greg would have to prove he could play at a higher level and he's been doing that; even before last night. Kudos to Paulus for the year he's having and--believe it or not--I hope he keeps playing like this. If he does, then we can talk about it; if not, we should be able to discuss that as well. Isn't that why we're here?

Beautifully said.

I posted similar ideas about the hyper-sensitivities to criticisms in the infamous Greg or Nolan thread about a week ago, although I think not as well as you have.

stickdog
02-01-2008, 05:13 PM
I'm cherry picking? You produce statistics from Paulus' (by far) worst 6 game stretch of the entire season, but I'm cherry picking?

Seriously, go find another 6 game stretch of the season in which Paulus' stats are worse than the stretch you remember so well. There isn't one.

Pittsburgh was definitely Paulus' worst performance of the season, but the whole team played poorly and the game happened well before Christmas 6 weeks ago. Why in the world would you reach back and include that game other than to cherry pick the exact stretch in which Paulus would look the worst?

Forget about last night. Over Paulus' last seven games before last night, Paulus had 21 assists against just 7 turnovers. Paulus had hit 23 straight free throws, including 14-14 in ACC play. Paulus had averaged 10.4 points, 3 assists, 1.6 steals and 0.3 blocks per game against just 1 turnover per game. And that's when the thread went up saying he needed to be benched in favor of Smith. So who here is actually cherry picking?

mr. synellinden
02-01-2008, 05:26 PM
Forget about last night. Over Paulus' last seven games before last night, Paulus had 21 assists against just 7 turnovers. Paulus had hit 23 straight free throws, including 14-14 in ACC play. Paulus had averaged 10.4 points, 3 assists, 1.6 steals and 0.3 blocks per game against just 1 turnover per game. And that's when the thread went up saying he needed to be benched in favor of Smith. So who here is actually cherry picking?

Putting aside who's cherry-picking, just to be balanced about this argument, and it clearly can't be discussed without it morphing into an argument, during the stretch of play in question Paulus was shooting very poorly from outside (I think 25% is correct) and not playing good defense. The A/TO ratio is very solid however.

Now I am sure that JJ had stretches of games where he shot poorly from outside and other great shooters too - but stats aside even the most ardent Paulus supporters would have to agree that GP was not playing up to his ability from the start of 2008 to last night. Last night's performance actually highlights the point.

CDu
02-01-2008, 05:40 PM
I'm cherry picking? You produce statistics from Paulus' (by far) worst 6 game stretch of the entire season, but I'm cherry picking?

Seriously, go find another 6 game stretch of the season in which Paulus' stats are worse than the stretch you remember so well. There isn't one.

Pittsburgh was definitely Paulus' worst performance of the season, but the whole team played poorly and the game happened well before Christmas 6 weeks ago. Why in the world would you reach back and include that game other than to cherry pick the exact stretch in which Paulus would look the worst?

Forget about last night. Over Paulus' last seven games before last night, Paulus had 21 assists against just 7 turnovers. Paulus had hit 23 straight free throws, including 14-14 in ACC play. Paulus had averaged 10.4 points, 3 assists, 1.6 steals and 0.3 blocks per game against just 1 turnover per game. And that's when the thread went up saying he needed to be benched in favor of Smith. So who here is actually cherry picking?


Yes. You are cherry picking. I was cherry picking too. You obviously missed my point though. My point wasn't that that you were cherry picking and I wasn't. My point was that BECAUSE you're cherry picking, you are overlooking the reason why it was understandable to discuss a redistribution of minutes. Paulus wasn't playing well during that stretch, and Smith was playing better. I'm sorry that you got so hung up on the cherry-picking comment.

At the risk of giving you a chance to overlook my point again, I'll discuss your post a bit. There's a reason why that is Paulus's worst 6 game stretch. The games prior to that were generally against much inferior competition. Those six games included the toughest team we've faced so far (Pitt) and four ACC games, along with Temple.


And actually, go back and look at his numbers PRIOR to the 6-game stretch I pointed out and compare them to his numbers in the 6-game stretch. They are a LOT closer to what he did in that 6-game stretch than what he's done in this last stretch, which is buoyed largely by the great game at the end.

But again, you seem to be neglecting the point of my post. It's a temporal issue. At the time when people were seriously discussing whether Smith may have deserved more minutes, Paulus was in the middle of (as you yourself have now said) his worst stretch of play this year, and hadn't been that great prior to that stretch. At the same time, Smith was playing really well and added a component that isn't Paulus' strength (on the ball defense). And it wasn't, at that time, at ALL unreasonable to wonder if it had to do with the level of competition increasing.

Paulus has since played better and has earned his minutes lately. There's no debating that. What is silly, in my opinion, is expecting apologies from people who were critiquing Paulus when he was not playing great, and saying "I told you so." He's playing markedly better right now than he has at any other point in his career.

stickdog
02-01-2008, 06:10 PM
Putting aside who's cherry-picking, just to be balanced about this argument, and it clearly can't be discussed without it morphing into an argument, during the stretch of play in question Paulus was shooting very poorly from outside (I think 25% is correct) and not playing good defense.

Um, no. During the 7 game stretch before last night, Greg had scored 48 points on 50 shots for an effective FG percentage of 48%. While that is far below Paulus' scorching season long effective FG percentage of 60%, he was still a more than decent offensive option during that stretch.

stickdog
02-01-2008, 06:14 PM
Paulus has since played better and has earned his minutes lately. There's no debating that. What is silly, in my opinion, is expecting apologies from people who were critiquing Paulus when he was not playing great, and saying "I told you so." He's playing markedly better right now than he has at any other point in his career.

I not expecting apologies. Nor am I here to say, "I told you so."

What I am here to do is to point out that Paulus has played well by any objective standard of evaluation so far this calendar year, and this was the case even before he blew up last night.

CDu
02-01-2008, 06:33 PM
I not expecting apologies. Nor am I here to say, "I told you so."

What I am here to do is to point out that Paulus has played well by any objective standard of evaluation so far this calendar year, and this was the case even before he blew up last night.

Then my disagreement is not with you. I don't disagree that he's played fairly well this calendar year. My point was/is simply that, AT THE TIME, the discussion was reasonable.

Clipsfan
02-01-2008, 07:44 PM
I can honestly say that I never opened the Paulus-Smith thread.

I didn't either, and I can also say that I've defended Paulus for a long time. It's great when he gets the points/assists, but his attitude is even more key. He is a winner and will leave everything on the floor trying to get that victory.

heath_harshman4
02-01-2008, 08:08 PM
Thanks for recanting, sort of. Did this change your opinion?

Now all we need is to hear from DukeHoopsGuru, mr. synellinden, elvis14, dukie8, and SilkyJ,

I know I know, I'm not afraid to eat crow on this one...

*achem*

Dear Greg,

PLEASE FORGIVE ME!!!

haha

yes yes yes... I was wrong, I will admit that, and Greg showed his true colors tonight.

More to the point, I was very dissapointed with Nolan last night. Maybe it was the injury or something idk, but he played very poorly.

heath_harshman4
02-01-2008, 08:16 PM
Why is it unreasonable to discuss when Paulus has a bad game?

I think the thread got somewhat out of control though. Which easily happens when people debate a topic. It got to the point where some, I personally don't feel like I did, started, not bashing, but unfairly critisizing Greg for foolish stuff that Nolan has done as well. I don't think its unreasonable to discuss when someone has a bad game, but both sides of the Paulus/Smith debate got somewhat heated and it turned into, what i feel was, a bad thread.

Johnny B
02-01-2008, 08:48 PM
I can honestly say that I never opened the Paulus-Smith thread.

Neither did I....

I didn't even let my kids look at it....

....or my dog,....."deano"

Actually, I might have peeked a bit, but I crossed my eyes at the time, thus the writing was all blurred; I certainly didn't write any comments.....

Ok, perhaps one comment, but I was under the influence of a triple expresso at the time...

does that count? :p

DukeHoopsGuru
02-01-2008, 11:12 PM
Now all we need is to hear from DukeHoopsGuru, mr. synellinden, elvis14, dukie8, and SilkyJ,

Hey I'm not hiding. Greg played a great game. Arguably his best ever as a Blue Devil. However, NC State's point guard play isn't one I'd call attack his weaknesses.

I give him complete props. Played a great game. But I still feel come March Nolan will be more important than Greg. Nobody has to agree with it. I just have visions of Maynor in my head, and nothing can change that.

ice-9
02-02-2008, 02:36 AM
I only read the first few pages of the Nolan vs. Greg thread, but I think the reason there is such a big reaction is that to conclude (or predict) that Nolan is a better PG for this Duke team than Greg is a BIG statement. To me, if you want to make that kind of argument, it should be obvious from both on-court and on-paper points of views that Nolan has been more effective than Greg.

However, for the people defending Greg (and I would include myself in that camp though I did not participate in the thread), that evidence is not apparent. My admittedly untrained eye tells me that both players bring different strengths/weaknesses to the court, but that neither is clearly more valuable than the other. Paper statistics show that they are both performing strongly, but that Greg has an edge thus far over the course of the season. It is just not obvious to me that a redistribution of minutes favoring Nolan over Greg will lead to a better team. Why disrupt something that is clearly working well?

While I agree that this is a message board and that this is a reasonable topic to discuss (the mere fact that we have such strong views for and against prove that), I can't help but feel sorry for Greg and so was particularly excited to read how he had a strong game against State. That's why even though I didn't personally call out for it, I did hope that some of the proponents of Nolan-taking-more-minutes-from-Greg camp will take a few minutes to applaud Greg's play and reconsider their position on the topic. heath_harsman4 did with this thread and I thank him for it.

darthur
02-02-2008, 03:40 AM
There is considerable academic research that debunks the "hot hand" notion, some of which is referenced above.

I have only had a chance to read the first few pages of the original article you linked, and I have not looked at the second one. It is interesting, but I am not yet convinced. There are a few technical things in the article that worry me, but I won't comment on them until/if I get a chance to finish reading it and think it over more fully.

However, here's a more general problem:

- Not all teams are equally good at defense.
- Mathematically, you should therefore see a correlation between shooting percentage for two shots within a single game. If you are playing a great defensive team, all your shots are going to be at a lower percentage. If you are playing a bad defensive team, all your shots are going to be at a higher percentage.
- In particular, you should see a correlation between results for one shot and results for the last few shots, simply because they were taken in the same game, against the same defense.

Therefore, even if you don't believe in streak shooting at all, there should still be a correlation between hitting a single shot and hitting previous shots. In fact, I would have predicted this effect to be at least as significant as any correlation resulting from actual streak shooting.

But the article claims there's no such correlation at all. They say this implies shooters aren't streaky, because then the lack of correlation makes sense. Well, it still doesn't make sense to me. Until someone can explain why the effect I mentioned is inconsequential, I am suspicious that either the sample size is too small, or that there is something systematic going on here that hasn't been addressed. Either way, I am not ready to believe the conclusions from the article.

Indoor66
02-02-2008, 11:05 AM
I have only had a chance to read the first few pages of the original article you linked, and I have not looked at the second one. It is interesting, but I am not yet convinced. There are a few technical things in the article that worry me, but I won't comment on them until/if I get a chance to finish reading it and think it over more fully.

However, here's a more general problem:

- Not all teams are equally good at defense.
- Mathematically, you should therefore see a correlation between shooting percentage for two shots within a single game. If you are playing a great defensive team, all your shots are going to be at a lower percentage. If you are playing a bad defensive team, all your shots are going to be at a higher percentage.
- In particular, you should see a correlation between results for one shot and results for the last few shots, simply because they were taken in the same game, against the same defense.

Therefore, even if you don't believe in streak shooting at all, there should still be a correlation between hitting a single shot and hitting previous shots. In fact, I would have predicted this effect to be at least as significant as any correlation resulting from actual streak shooting.

But the article claims there's no such correlation at all. They say this implies shooters aren't streaky, because then the lack of correlation makes sense. Well, it still doesn't make sense to me. Until someone can explain why the effect I mentioned is inconsequential, I am suspicious that either the sample size is too small, or that there is something systematic going on here that hasn't been addressed. Either way, I am not ready to believe the conclusions from the article.

In basketball, you catch, pass, dribble, rebound and shoot. If your shots are going in you are hot. If not, you are not. It is a simple game.

cspan37421
02-02-2008, 01:37 PM
Indoor66 said it succinctly, though I have never heard the triangle offense described as a simple thing to learn.

I just read the "It's OK to believe in the hot hand" article (though one page is missing from the Google link). I found that it mostly talked past the Tversky article, dismissing it as having been the wrong model, and possibly misunderstanding it as well. For example, Tversky et al do not claim that streaks don't exist. I believe their claim is that there aren't more streaks than you would expect by chance, and that knowing the results of a player's last few shots is of no predictive value. That's what it all comes down to, because the theory of the hot hand is that if someone hits, say, 3 in a row, you try to be sure they get the next shot too, because they're "hot". My understanding is that a player who has hit 3 in a row isn't more likely to hit that 4th than their average shooting % suggests.

Now there are probably other ways of looking at it, and perhaps they don't all yield the same indications. I'm sure there's quite a bit more out there on this since both articles date from the mid to late 1980s. For now I still believe that believing in the hot hand offers no predictive advantage. This does not mean that your highest shooting % player (or effective %) gets all the team's shots. For every defensive posture/position, your best player is going to have a range of success possibilities - not all of which are going to be higher than your 2nd best player being wide open, etc. So to me, Tversky et al do not overturn or ignore logical baskeball strategy.

MikeS
02-07-2008, 12:33 AM
I've heard that he wants to become a coach eventually. While he still has two years to play, do you think he will join the coaching staff after he is done playing? While I love him, he might get drafted but I don't see him in the NBA. I think he would be a great replacement if one of the other guys takes a head coaching job.

DukeUsul
02-07-2008, 12:36 AM
I could definitely see him on the bench when his career is over. Although with the recent hire of Nate Dogg as the asst strength and conditioning coach (I think that's the title) I was kinda thinking that might be positioning him to move up if one of the other coaches gets a good offer.

OrangeDevil
02-07-2008, 12:38 AM
Could happen. I suspect he would/will be an excellent coach. I hope there's a spot beside K down the road that Greg can occupy.

dukemomLA
02-07-2008, 07:24 AM
Ain't gonna happen right away, but is OBVIOUSLY on the horizon! I think GP will be an awesome coach.... and especially at Duke. I think some seasoning as a Head Coach in Div II -- or asst at some DivI school for a year of two, will prepare him better (....having experienced the diminish from the frenzy and glory of ACC havoc) to come back to Duke with renewed fever and excitement -- and better for that 'lesser' experience. Similar to the current contributions of NateJ and ChrisC.

DUKE takes care of its own -- when they warrant that. Proud legacy to us --- and derision from others. So be it. If you're part of the family and deserve inclusion -- there's a place for you! Personally, I LOVE it. Warm and fuzzy from he.

Turtleboy
02-07-2008, 08:05 AM
Let's not give up on his pro career. There's a ton of money to be made internationally.

dukegirlinsc
02-07-2008, 08:34 AM
I'm too optomistic about his pro career. I think he has the possibility to do better than expected, especially if he keeps playing the way he has been lately.

Heelkiller1
02-07-2008, 08:39 AM
Greg would be a great coach ,I really don't see any room for him in the near future ,but if one of the other guys gets a head coaching job he would be an awsome replacement.But for now lets see if he can win us a championship shall we.

JStuart
02-07-2008, 09:31 AM
On the Durham radio broadcast late in the second half, Matthew Laurence said that during a time-out Paulus interrupted K to say that 'anyone on the line, we have their back; they aren't alone up there'. Maybe he's already beginning to show coaching tendencies?

freedevil
02-07-2008, 10:18 AM
I have been as hard as anyone on Greg Paulus on this board, but my god did he play out of his mind last night, as well as other nights. This thread, which may be merged into another (I'm hoping it won't), is all about posters like myself owning up and eating crow. So come out, come out, where ever you are. I'm extremely happy to be doing so. Well done Greg.

freedevil
02-07-2008, 10:22 AM
To my favorite UNC poster. We had this exchange a few months back... just wanted to remind you of it:



freedevil wrote:
Originally Posted by hondoheel
Duke would have won several more games last year with QT at the point.

Your original post, and all subsequent posts, minus one line about Paulus not being able to guard Rick Majerus, are about you saying Duke would be better had QT run the point. That is laughable. I am the first one to point out that Paulus is a defensive liability, but the thrust of all your posts, particularly the one about assist to turnover ratios, and how they aren't even close, is about offense, now isn't it?

My question to you is, if QT is so much better than Paulus, why couldn't he get minutes over a hobbled Frasor? I mean, his assist to turnover ratio is awesome, so maybe he can't guard anyone either. But we don't really know now do we, since QT only played 6 minutes a game, in only 70% of UNC's games.

QT didn't play as bad as I thought he would playing major minutes, so I'll give you that. But Paulus destroyed QT on offense and was by no means a defensive liability on the other end.

Wander
02-07-2008, 10:30 AM
He really tried to claim that Quentin Thomas was better than Greg Paulus? Seriously? You're not kidding?

freedevil
02-07-2008, 10:32 AM
That's correct. It even got me laughing, and at that point in time, I was not a Paulus fan. Now, I understand the error of my ways.

VaDukie
02-07-2008, 10:41 AM
Good friend of mine who's a die-hard Tar Heel has blasted Paulus repeatedly, going so far as to say in the days following the VCU loss that he was 'in the bottom half of Division I point guards".

The phone call with him last night was fun.

TillyGalore
02-07-2008, 10:50 AM
Last year, I gave the boy crap, I admit it. Because I knew he could play better than he had been playing. Course I didn't know how injured he was. I've believed in him all along, so I'm glad he is living up to his potential (oh God, I sound like my parents) and that everyone else is starting to see what I've seen.

greybeard
02-07-2008, 11:00 AM
My gut is that he will start at the High School level. The guy is a natural born leader; leading from the sidelines is something that I think he craves. Assistants don't get to do that. Than, a jump to a small program of his own in College. Something in NY State, maybe Army. Just ruminating.

What a terrific leader, competitor, and ballplayer.

Troublemaker
02-07-2008, 11:06 AM
I can definitely see him coming back to Duke to coach, maybe as an assistant under Dawkins in the future. Hopefully he'll be able to play in Europe for a decade or so before this becomes a possibility, though. I suspect the difference in salary between playing in Europe and coaching as an assistant is substantial.

killerleft
02-07-2008, 11:32 AM
All Hail... the Paulus!! I just can't diss anybody who gives the effort that he gives us, no matter how good or bad he might play. He's a Coach K type of player... period. You can ask for more, but if you're getting the best somebody's got game in and game out....!

I bet quite a few teams would trade us a couple bigs so they could have a true point guard named Paulus.

Channing
02-07-2008, 11:42 AM
I have done my fair share of yelling at the television when Paulus makes some of his mistakes. But he has been lights out the last several games.

Bravo Greg.

dukelifer
02-07-2008, 11:58 AM
At this level- the game is all about confidence - confidence in what you can do well and understanding what you cannot do well. Greg is figuring out his comfort zone and getting used to the speed of the game. I suspect we will see his passing improve as well. The kid works very hard.

Indoor66
02-07-2008, 02:30 PM
Paulus Article & Poll

Check out CBS for a great article on Paulus just being Paulus:
http://cbs.sportsline.com/collegebasketball/story/10624699/rss

...and a Poll on: What Do You Think Of Paulus
http://cbs.sportsline.com/mcc/messages/chrono/6241247

hc5duke
02-07-2008, 02:56 PM
also, props to his brother Mike. According to IC, he was cheering for Duke, and some posters there aren't very happy about that to say the least.

shadowfax336
02-07-2008, 03:04 PM
thats a great article...

mr. synellinden
02-07-2008, 03:20 PM
thats a great article...

It sure is. Thanks for posting it, otherwise I probably would have missed it.

freedevil
02-07-2008, 04:54 PM
I know there are more of you out there who need to come clean. Come on!!!

rtnorthrup
02-07-2008, 05:01 PM
The real issue isnt that Greg Paulus is not a good basketball player. Instead, the real issue is that he is not a pure point guard. He is a fantastic shooter, and tough as nails, no question about it, but when he was recruited he was supposed to be a pure pass first point guard. If you want him to be Hurley or Jason Williams getting into the lane and getting 6 assists a game, you will be disappointed in him. If you are looking for a scrappy basketball player who can hit tough shots and make tough plays, you will love him. Personally, I think he adds a toughness to this team that is irreplaceable, and his outside shot is a real weapon. I will live with the 2-3 turnovers a game.

Fish80
02-07-2008, 05:12 PM
Paulus Article & Poll


...and a Poll on: What Do You Think Of Paulus
http://cbs.sportsline.com/mcc/messages/chrono/6241247

Should this be in a poll skewing thread? I just voted, and Love Greg is winning with 81%!

freedevil
02-07-2008, 09:00 PM
More of you are out there... come on.

dukie8
02-07-2008, 09:29 PM
i'm coming clean. i was one of his harsher critics on here last year because he was, at times, downright awful. fast forward to this year and his progression has been nothing short of remarkable. he's never going to be a 1st team all american point guard but he has dramatically improved so many facets of his game and is a key cog in this team. i think it was the mental errors (like picking up his dribble in the backcourt) that drove me the most nuts last year and he has, by and large, eliminated them.

i don't think anyone questioned his attitude, effort or moxie last year and they are just as stellar this year. probably most importantly, i think that he is a tremendous ambassador for the school. could he be any more self-deprecating, humble and complementary of his teammates and coaches? he has been a pleasure to watch this past month and clearly the team is significantly better when he plays well. now that i have posted this, watch him go out and put up a goose egg next game...

Clipsfan
02-07-2008, 09:31 PM
I have been as hard as anyone on Greg Paulus on this board, but my god did he play out of his mind last night, as well as other nights. This thread, which may be merged into another (I'm hoping it won't), is all about posters like myself owning up and eating crow. So come out, come out, where ever you are. I'm extremely happy to be doing so. Well done Greg.

If GP is winning over guys like you, he must really be doing something right :)

Glad that he's winning more people over, and that at least some of those who have bashed him are big enough to come out and make a statement like yours. Well done.

captmojo
02-07-2008, 09:46 PM
I've never been a Paulus detractor. I have always had an appreciation for his hustle and hard work. Last night, and in many other games, his play was crucial and he responded with aplomb. The three pointers he has made of late, came at very pivotal points in the momentum flow of the game, and I'm not just referring to last night's contest.

weezie
02-07-2008, 09:56 PM
Geez, captmojo, your avatar is something else!

Surfsideron
02-07-2008, 10:00 PM
Paulus is exactly what a player should be....he gives 100% of what he has everytime he's on the floor. Flawless? Not by a long shot. His athletic skills are limited but his heart and smarts for the game are limitless!

Nelson may be the captain but Paulus is the leader of this Duke team!

mus074
02-07-2008, 10:45 PM
Check out this piece (http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/special_report_we_win/) from last year and compare the supporting individual stats (http://kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Duke&y=2007) to this year's oeuvre (http://kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Duke&y=2008).

captmojo
02-07-2008, 10:50 PM
Geez, captmojo, your avatar is something else!

Ain't he purdy? :D

I_am_a_Blue_Devil
02-13-2008, 09:28 PM
His play on the offensive and defensive ends of the court have been amazing in the past 10 or so games. He is the pilot light to our gas logs, if you will. I love the intensity and passion that he plays with. It seems to me that Greg loves wearing the Duke jersey just as much as anyone who has ever worn one, and his confidence and fire lately have been just oozing out in all situations. Thank you Greg Paulus, for playing at Duke.

pamtar
02-13-2008, 09:31 PM
Well said. He has earned is role to say the least.

dukestheheat
02-13-2008, 09:50 PM
His play on the offensive and defensive ends of the court have been amazing in the past 10 or so games. He is the pilot light to our gas logs, if you will. I love the intensity and passion that he plays with. It seems to me that Greg loves wearing the Duke jersey just as much as anyone who has ever worn one, and his confidence and fire lately have been just oozing out in all situations. Thank you Greg Paulus, for playing at Duke.

and this guy has totally elevated his leadership and overall game to will Duke to victory this year. this is his break out year, and it's all coming together for him, finally. lastly, he's now getting the accolades and credit that's he's worked for, and this has been simmering within him, probably, for two years running now.

i just want him to CONTINUE to play with passion and verve and with that chip on his shoulder. he's better when he knows he's the Next Great 'Hated' Duke Player, as JJ the Great Redick had predicted that he would be.

All hail Greg Paulus, a great warrior for Duke!

dth.

IUGrad03
02-13-2008, 09:53 PM
I absolutely love watching him when he gets fired up and puts the team on his back. I agree with you about the pride he feels and shows for wearing the Duke jersey. Considering that he was so heralded in football, to give up that future to come here, well, I think that should make any Duke fan proud.

killerleft
02-13-2008, 10:00 PM
He is THE PAULUS.

weezie
02-13-2008, 10:05 PM
And he ain't a-scared of anybody.

IUGrad03
02-13-2008, 10:05 PM
Or Ron Paulus as Mike Patrick so cleverly referred to him this evening.

hc5duke
02-13-2008, 10:13 PM
Or Ron Paulus as Mike Patrick so cleverly referred to him this evening.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/5/58/Ron_powlus_si-cover1996.jpg/192px-Ron_powlus_si-cover1996.jpg

Maybe Mike meant this guy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ron_Powlus) :rolleyes:

ice-9
02-13-2008, 11:22 PM
I've said before I'm a Paulus supporter and fan, but what's up with Nolan Smith? I'm worried that GP is playing too many minutes and that NS is riding the pine too much -- not sure having such an uneven distribution of minutes is good for the long-term. Reasons: 1) GP might lose his legs later in the season and 2) NS might lose confidence and/or get game-time rusty.

Richard Berg
02-14-2008, 12:57 AM
I've said before I'm a Paulus supporter and fan, but what's up with Nolan Smith?
Pay closer attention to what NS has brought to the game recently. For example, tonight's 6 minutes brought 0-2 shooting, 2 turnovers, 2 fouls, 0 everything else. And frankly it was worse than that: both turnovers led to MD transitions -- one of them a completely uncontested bucket. Both missed shots had no chance of going in (one wild layup attempt, one brutal block). At least one of the fouls was because of a missed defensive assignment; I forget about the other.

I love what NS brings to the game -- yet another spark off the bench who could explode at any moment, plus a potential offense/defense substitution at the end of a close match. But he's not ready to take away from our star leader right now.

SeattleIrish
02-14-2008, 01:01 AM
According to SOME, Greg is having the 2nd best season of any player in the ACC.:o

s.i.

http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6870

stickdog
02-16-2008, 04:33 PM
Consider the ACC game only statistical leaders (http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-baskbl/stats/2007-2008/confonly.html):

Paulus is 2nd in three pointers made and assist to turnover ratio, 3rd in free throw percentage and three point percentage, 4th in steals and free throw percentage, and 23rd in scoring (13.3 points per game).