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gw67
02-07-2008, 09:05 AM
While the Devils appear to have a stranglehold on 1st place in the ACC and it is likely that UNC will right their ship to maintain 2nd place, the remaining ten teams continue to fight it out to see which team(s) can separate themselves from the rest. Some thoughts on last night’s games:

Maryland over BC - The Terps won for the ninth time in eleven games with another victory on the road. Vasquez continues to put together games that other ACC point guards rarely achieve. Last night, he had 25 points, 8 assists (3 TO), 6 rebounds and 2 steals, and he helped limit Rice to 10 points. The Terps are probably playing as well as any team in the ACC except for Duke and appear to be set up to win at least 9 games. Their Achilles heel is their inept bench. BC lost their fifth league game in a row and with an away game at Duke this weekend, that losing string will probably reach six.

Georgia Tech over Wake Forest – Tech won for the fourth time in five games (a tough loss to Maryland) and three of those wins have come on the road. Their point guard situation has settled down, their perimeter shooters (Morrow, Clinch) are scoring and their four-player inside rotation is playing well. I think that they have a decent chance to win nine games and finish toward the top of the ACC. They have a rough road game at UConn this weekend. Wake has lost five of seven and I don’t see them getting back to .500.

Florida State over Miami - The Noles won for only the second time in the last eight ACC games. They have a relatively easy schedule for the rest of the season but they dug themselves too big a hole to get back to .500. The Canes have lost six of their last seven games and I suspect that they will wind up near the bottom of the ACC regular season, regardless of their relatively good RPI (before last night).

gw67

CDu
02-07-2008, 09:26 AM
Maryland and NC State are very interesting teams right now. Maryland has really seemed to figure it out in 2008. They are on a big roll, and I don't see them missing the tournament at this point the way they're playing. State has battled through injuries and inexperience at PG. But their freshman seems to be playing well lately. They're 4-4 in conference despite having to play Duke, UNC, and Clemson on the road. If they can steal one against Clemson at home and beat BC or Maryland this week, I like their chances to sneak into the tourney as well.

Miami looks done. FSU is tough, but they HAD to win that game to keep their tourney hopes alive. At 2-6, they look like they might need to go 7-1 down the stretch (which includes Maryland, Duke, and @Clemson).

FSU just has too many losses and too few games remaining. They need to go at least 6-1 to have any tourney hopes, and they have to play @UNC, @Maryland, @NCSU, and against Clemson. That's a daunting schedule to run the table against.

Clemson needs to win tonight. They're playing @UVa, and it has the potential to be a trap game for them. A win would move them to 5-3. They have a pretty good schedule the rest of the way, with only @UNC and @Maryland as games in which they shouldn't be favored (MAYBE @NCSU as well). They should get to at least 9 wins (probably 10), and that should be enough.

Ga Tech has looked better ever since the UNC game. But at 11-10 and just 4-4 in conference, they'd pretty much have to go 7-1 in the second half of the ACC schedule (likely needing a win at Duke as well) to get to the tournament. With two games against Clemson and a game @Duke, I just don't see it happening for them.

Va Tech benefited from an easy early season schedule, and they have one of the easiest schedules overall. But they have to play @UNC, @Maryland, and @Clemson in the second half. They have to steal one of those (or more) or win the rest of their games to even be in consideration.

Ultimately, I think Duke, UNC, Clemson, and Maryland will get in comfortably. NC State and Va Tech have work to do, but could sneak in with a strong second half. Ga Tech has a REALLY outside chance, and FSU's and Miami's chances are on life support right now.