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Jumbo
02-05-2008, 01:30 AM
I decided to start a separate strategy thread in addition to the usual pre-game thread, because of this particular opponent. Here's what I'll be looking for Wednesday night:

1) Who guards whom on the perimeter to start the game?

Duke doesn't actually play its "starting lineup" together all that often after the start of each half. Still, assuming Lawson plays, how will the perimeter defensive assignments stack up? Or, more to the point, where do you put Paulus? I really only see two options -- he guards Lawson, or you try to "hide" him on Ginyard. He can't guard Ellington; not only can Wayne beat Greg off the dribble, but I can't see Greg chasing him through all those screens, and Wayne can just shoot over him. The last thing I want to see happen is for Ellington to go off early (more on that later).

Because of my fear of Ellington starting strong, I want DeMarcus to guard him. He's far better defender than Henderson. Plus, even if you hide Paulus on Ginyard, you still run the risk of Ginyard making an impact on the offensive boards. So, I'd bite the bullet early, have Paulus start on Lawson, put Markie on Ellington and stick Gerald on Ginyard. Obviously, this is all moot if Lawson doesn't play. And we'll surely see a ton of Scheyer and Smith -- I can't wait to see Smith on Lawson, Scheyer on Ellington (because of his ability to chase guys through screens) and Nelson on the third wing (which will be a nice little break for him), as I think that's Duke's top defensive perimeter trio. But it's fun to speculate about the first few minutes.

2) How often will Duke use its 4-guard lineup? And how will it match up with UNC's two strong posts?
This question could very well decide the game. The Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson-Singler lineup is Duke's second-most frequently used lineup, after the starters. From a plus/minus (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4862) perspective, it hasn't been as wonderful as I'd hoped, at +32 in 38 shifts. Throw in the fact that K has used that group with Smith in for Paulus another 16 times, and that Thomas has replaced Singler with either of the two PGs in a total of 15 times, and it's clear that we like to go small often.

So, who gets the better of it? Can Duke pull Thompson/Stephenson (there's no way Hansbrough will cover one of the perimeter guys) away from the basket and either beat them to the basket or burn them from the perimeter? Will Carolina go to town with one of those guys posting up G? How will Duke help in the post, and how will that affect Hansbrough on the other side, and Carolina's offensive rebounding? While both teams can adjust (Duke can and will play two forwards much of the night and UNC can move Green to the 4), this is the most fascinating scenario to watch. It's speed vs. strength. Generally, at the college level, I favor speed, especially in a spread attack like Duke's. I think Carolina's bigs will struggle defending the pick-and-roll, especially if it's big-on-big (say, Thompson guarding G on the ball, with Singler, guarded by Hansbrough, setting the screen).

3) Can Duke's depth wear out the Heels?
Yeah, you read that right. Duke has the deeper team. Green is a fantastic sixth man. Stephenson is good reserve in the post. But after that, the talent really drops off. The next two guys in UNC's rotation are Thomas and Graves. Neither is close to McClure and King, Duke's eighth and ninth guys. And if QT has to start, Carolina's backcourt depth is a MAJOR problem. For the people who believe in such things (and I'm not sure I do), Duke has the personnel and the intense ball-pressure to tire out the Heels -- especially their guards.

4) How will UNC defend Duke's pick-and-rolls?
I was watching this during the Florida State game, because FSU plays three guards all the time and ran a lot of spread stuff with high ball-screens. Against FSU, UNC's bigs hedged really wide. FSU struggled agaisnt that until they started to split the hedge off the dribble. Unfortunately, Markie and Nolan are really the only two Duke guards who do that effectively. Scheyer and, in particular, Henderson, like to dribble wide off the ball-screen. And Paulus doesn't look to drive; he looks to shoot off the screen. But there's a catch -- Hansbrough/Thompson/Stephenson were able to hedge wide because FSU's bigs weren't perimeter threats -- they were rolling, not popping. It's a totally different challenge when Singler and King are setting that high screen. They can't hedge nearly as far. So, will UNC trap the ball-handler? Switch everything? Show-and-recover? Hedge as far as they did against FSU? Pick-and-roll defense will be huge.

5. Can Singler avoid foul trouble?

I'm conceding a rebound advantage to UNC. I'm conceding points in the paint. I'm conceding the fact that Lance, who has battled foul problems all year, probably will rack up a few on Wednesday night. But Duke can't afford to lose Singler at the offensive end. So he needs to be judicious in the post and, most of all, he CANNOT commit fouls 30 feet from the basket. I love the kid's hustle and will, but the risk of his gambling so far away from the hoop isn't worth the benefit in this game. Singler's ability to stretch the D and potentially get Hansbrough in foul trouble by facing up on him is critical. The kid needs to stay on the court.

Obviously there are other keys. We've talked all year about converting turnovers into points, minimizing damage in the post, finding more ways to get Scheyer shots, figuring out which Taylor King will show up, etc. But I'll be watching the five issues above particularly closely.

MarkD83
02-05-2008, 06:53 AM
I'll add two more that are related.

1. If UNC pushes the pace, as suggested by Roy Williams, will that negate their size advantage?

Duke, like UNC has shown a tendency to run off of steals, rebounds and made baskets. If both teams do this there could be many times where Hansborough, Thompson and Stephenson or Thomas, Singler and King may be in "no-man's" land at center court watching the action.

2. Related to 1, if the running game gets into full force will UNC go to only 1 big and use Green as the other big? Green as the second big man is not bad but it makes things alot easier for Duke.

gw67
02-05-2008, 08:29 AM
I know this is pretty silly but I’m going to disagree with Jumbo. Since last March, many Duke fans have gotten all nervous and upset thinking about an opponent that has a guard who can drive to the basket. Even if Lawson is ready to go on Wednesday, I would suggest the following are the keys to the game:

• Keep turnovers to a minimum. The Devils cannot let them get easy baskets.
• Make Lawson and Ellington work hard on defense by emphasizing Paulus, Henderson, Scheyer and Smith on offense.
• I expect a close-called game. UNC will likely make their free throws. Duke, particularly, Henderson and Nelson, need to as well.
• On defense, I would rotate Paulus (Yes, Paulus) and Smith on Lawson; Henderson on Ellington (Ellington has had the better college career to date and I expect Henderson to play a strong game against his high school teammate to show that he is a comparable college player); Nelson/Scheyer on Ginyard and more importantly, on Green; Thomas/McClure on Hansbrough; and Singler/King on Thomson/Steveson. The Heels are an outstanding offensive team. They will get their points. The Devils need to make them work hard to get them. I note that I don’t like Nelson on Smith. It takes him away from the basket where the Devils need his rebounding and I think Paulus and Smith will be adequate defensively if they play off Lawson. Besides, I think that their offensive contributions will more than offset what Lawson does.
• The Devils need to score a bunch of points. I think that they can do so with a combination of driving to the hoop and hitting outside shots. FSU gave the Heels a tough game by doing just the former.

In reality, I’ll be very surprised if Lawson plays. I realize that not all high ankle sprains are equal but Hayes of Maryland had one during a practice and he missed 3 games and was not himself until the 3rd game back. If Lawson doesn’t play, then Ellington, Green and Thompson will need to step up. I like the individual matchups on those players but it is a team game and the game is at Chapel Hill. It should be a fun game to watch.

gw67

gw67
02-05-2008, 09:00 AM
I note that I don’t like Nelson on Smith.

My brain said Lawson but my fingers insisted on typing Smith. I don't like Nelson on Smith either.

gw67

blazindw
02-05-2008, 12:19 PM
My strategy is quite simple: have more points than UNC with 00.0 left in the 2nd half. :)

But seriously, if they play as tough as they have played so far this year, I feel we are in for a seriously good game, one we will be in until the very end and have a great chance to win!

Madrasdukie
02-05-2008, 12:20 PM
I decided to start a separate strategy thread in addition to the usual pre-game thread, because of this particular opponent. Here's what I'll be looking for Wednesday night:

1) Who guards whom on the perimeter to start the game?

Duke doesn't actually play its "starting lineup" together all that often after the start of each half. Still, assuming Lawson plays, how will the perimeter defensive assignments stack up? Or, more to the point, where do you put Paulus? I really only see two options -- he guards Lawson, or you try to "hide" him on Ginyard. He can't guard Ellington; not only can Wayne beat Greg off the dribble, but I can't see Greg chasing him through all those screens, and Wayne can just shoot over him. The last thing I want to see happen is for Ellington to go off early (more on that later).

Because of my fear of Ellington starting strong, I want DeMarcus to guard him. He's far better defender than Henderson. Plus, even if you hide Paulus on Ginyard, you still run the risk of Ginyard making an impact on the offensive boards. So, I'd bite the bullet early, have Paulus start on Lawson, put Markie on Ellington and stick Gerald on Ginyard. Obviously, this is all moot if Lawson doesn't play. And we'll surely see a ton of Scheyer and Smith -- I can't wait to see Smith on Lawson, Scheyer on Ellington (because of his ability to chase guys through screens) and Nelson on the third wing (which will be a nice little break for him), as I think that's Duke's top defensive perimeter trio. But it's fun to speculate about the first few minutes.

2) How often will Duke use its 4-guard lineup? And how will it match up with UNC's two strong posts?
This question could very well decide the game. The Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson-Singler lineup is Duke's second-most frequently used lineup, after the starters. From a plus/minus (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4862) perspective, it hasn't been as wonderful as I'd hoped, at +32 in 38 shifts. Throw in the fact that K has used that group with Smith in for Paulus another 16 times, and that Thomas has replaced Singler with either of the two PGs in a total of 15 times, and it's clear that we like to go small often.

So, who gets the better of it? Can Duke pull Thompson/Stephenson (there's no way Hansbrough will cover one of the perimeter guys) away from the basket and either beat them to the basket or burn them from the perimeter? Will Carolina go to town with one of those guys posting up G? How will Duke help in the post, and how will that affect Hansbrough on the other side, and Carolina's offensive rebounding? While both teams can adjust (Duke can and will play two forwards much of the night and UNC can move Green to the 4), this is the most fascinating scenario to watch. It's speed vs. strength. Generally, at the college level, I favor speed, especially in a spread attack like Duke's. I think Carolina's bigs will struggle defending the pick-and-roll, especially if it's big-on-big (say, Thompson guarding G on the ball, with Singler, guarded by Hansbrough, setting the screen).

3) Can Duke's depth wear out the Heels?
Yeah, you read that right. Duke has the deeper team. Green is a fantastic sixth man. Stephenson is good reserve in the post. But after that, the talent really drops off. The next two guys in UNC's rotation are Thomas and Graves. Neither is close to McClure and King, Duke's eighth and ninth guys. And if QT has to start, Carolina's backcourt depth is a MAJOR problem. For the people who believe in such things (and I'm not sure I do), Duke has the personnel and the intense ball-pressure to tire out the Heels -- especially their guards.

4) How will UNC defend Duke's pick-and-rolls?
I was watching this during the Florida State game, because FSU plays three guards all the time and ran a lot of spread stuff with high ball-screens. Against FSU, UNC's bigs hedged really wide. FSU struggled agaisnt that until they started to split the hedge off the dribble. Unfortunately, Markie and Nolan are really the only two Duke guards who do that effectively. Scheyer and, in particular, Henderson, like to dribble wide off the ball-screen. And Paulus doesn't look to drive; he looks to shoot off the screen. But there's a catch -- Hansbrough/Thompson/Stephenson were able to hedge wide because FSU's bigs weren't perimeter threats -- they were rolling, not popping. It's a totally different challenge when Singler and King are setting that high screen. They can't hedge nearly as far. So, will UNC trap the ball-handler? Switch everything? Show-and-recover? Hedge as far as they did against FSU? Pick-and-roll defense will be huge.

5. Can Singler avoid foul trouble?

I'm conceding a rebound advantage to UNC. I'm conceding points in the paint. I'm conceding the fact that Lance, who has battled foul problems all year, probably will rack up a few on Wednesday night. But Duke can't afford to lose Singler at the offensive end. So he needs to be judicious in the post and, most of all, he CANNOT commit fouls 30 feet from the basket. I love the kid's hustle and will, but the risk of his gambling so far away from the hoop isn't worth the benefit in this game. Singler's ability to stretch the D and potentially get Hansbrough in foul trouble by facing up on him is critical. The kid needs to stay on the court.

Obviously there are other keys. We've talked all year about converting turnovers into points, minimizing damage in the post, finding more ways to get Scheyer shots, figuring out which Taylor King will show up, etc. But I'll be watching the five issues above particularly closely.

It makes the game more exciting to look forward to the way you've analyzed it, or to be more precise more exciting in a technical perspective. I can immediately appreciate #3.

Do you know how well Ginyard or for that matter anyone else on their team, can run the point ?

hurleyfor3
02-05-2008, 12:45 PM
My strategy is quite simple: have more points than UNC with 00.0 left in the 2nd half. :)


That's not necessarily enough, as the 1972 US Olympic team knows.

camion
02-05-2008, 01:01 PM
This will be a game of mismatches and the team that can handle it best will have an advantage.

UNC has an advantage in the paint, but one question for them is who will chase our guards for 40 minutes. Is there any one of Paulus, Sheyer, Nelson, Henderson or Smith that you can relax while guarding?

Also, what about a zone? Will either team use it extensively, Duke, to help in the paint or UNC to slow down Duke's guards?

It should be an interesting game.

Classof06
02-05-2008, 01:10 PM
I think you have to put Demarcus on Ellington. As I've said before, Ellington averaged 3.5 points in 2 games against Duke when Demarcus guarded him last year. I'm not saying Ellington will only score 4 points tomorrow but Nelson has shown the ability to give Ellington difficulties. Duke puts themselves in a much better position if they can keep Ellington in check; not totally shut him out, but keep him in check.

You put Smith or Paulus on Lawson/Thomas (whoever the PG is) and wear them out; this is where losing Bobby Frasor should come back to bit UNC in the rear. From a strictly defensive persepective, I think the best option would be to start Nolan and put him on Lawson/Thomas but I don't see Paulus not starting. Gerald and Scheyer will be responsible for locking up Ginyard and Danny Green, whoever is in the game on each team. How we guard those two will be crucial; we can't allow either one to get off.

As far as the post goes, it's going to have to be a team effort on Hansbrough and Thompson/Stepheson. I don't want to put Singler on Hansbrough because that's foul trouble waiting to happen; unfortunately, we really don't have a choice. The upside is that Hansbrough having to chase Singler all over the court is an advantage to Duke; if Singler gets the ball on the perimeter, I don't believe Hansbrough will be able to stay in front of him consistently. Lastly, between Lance and McClure, at least one of them has to stay out of foul trouble.

And keep an eye on McClure, he's a very good defender and most importantly, he's a versatile defender. With our size limitations, he'll be very valuable tomorrow. I look for him to get extended minutes, especially if Lance struggles.

And I wouldn't at all be surprised to see Duke go zone. UNC's weakness is consistent outside shooting (besides Ellington).

SilkyJ
02-05-2008, 02:20 PM
1) Who guards whom on the perimeter to start the game?

Duke doesn't actually play its "starting lineup" together all that often after the start of each half. Still, assuming Lawson plays, how will the perimeter defensive assignments stack up? Or, more to the point, where do you put Paulus? I really only see two options -- he guards Lawson, or you try to "hide" him on Ginyard. He can't guard Ellington; not only can Wayne beat Greg off the dribble, but I can't see Greg chasing him through all those screens, and Wayne can just shoot over him. The last thing I want to see happen is for Ellington to go off early (more on that later).

Because of my fear of Ellington starting strong, I want DeMarcus to guard him. He's far better defender than Henderson. Plus, even if you hide Paulus on Ginyard, you still run the risk of Ginyard making an impact on the offensive boards. So, I'd bite the bullet early, have Paulus start on Lawson, put Markie on Ellington and stick Gerald on Ginyard. Obviously, this is all moot if Lawson doesn't play. And we'll surely see a ton of Scheyer and Smith -- I can't wait to see Smith on Lawson, Scheyer on Ellington (because of his ability to chase guys through screens) and Nelson on the third wing (which will be a nice little break for him), as I think that's Duke's top defensive perimeter trio. But it's fun to speculate about the first few minutes.


This has been the question i've been pondering the most myself, and I just don't know the answer I think we'll see demarcus guard a myriad of players. To start, assuming we go with our standard starting lineup (remember we mixed things up last year...) I think that Greg has improved enough on Defense to merit a chance against lawson and we put demarc on ellington. I think we'll see demarcus guard ellington the most by far, and at some point he will probably guard lawson, and he will probably also help out and guard a big man or danny green whenever we go to our 4 guard lineup...(now if lawson doesnt play, then I dont think demarcus EVER guards the PG spot)

UNC, like us, has a a bunch of interchangeable parts (except at PG right now) so there are just going to be a TON of interesting matchups on both ends.

The BIGGEST question for me: are we going to see zoubek? after the way he gave hansbrough fits last year, it wouldn't surprise me at all if K has been targeting this game for zoub's return. we may only see him for 5 mins, but that may be all we need...

dukerev
02-05-2008, 02:32 PM
I agree with putting DeMarcus on Ellington and Lance/David on Hansblahblah. I know we won't see it from Duke, but at some point, some team is going to try a junk defense against Carolina and it'll work: triangle and two with the two being on Ellington and Hansfoul or a diamond and one with the one being on Ellington.

I do think that our depth will wear them out, particularly their guards.

Carolina has a lot of trouble staying in front of people. F$U got by them all the time. They missed a LOT of layups and also missed a ton of open three-pointers on kickouts. We need to shoot better than we did in the first half of the Miami game (was there a lid on that basket?) - and if so, we'll do just fine. I don't think that Hanstravel will be chasing Singler, though. One of their other bigs will do that. In fact, I see the big mismatch for them being when Hansgoober's man sets a pick on the ball (either Singler or more probably David or Lance). We can either blow by to the basket if they try and go around the screen or hit a 3-ball/mid range jumper if they go under the screen. I don't see Hansismyleastfavoritetarheel able to switch onto G or DeMarcus or even Jon very well.

Bottom line, I bet they are just as worried about defending us as we are about defending them.

tux
02-05-2008, 02:40 PM
I thought I read that Brian will have another Xray on Wednesday and that K was hoping to have him back for BC on Saturday. (Having him tomorrow night would be a tremendous bonus, if only to pester the UNC post players for 5-10 minutes.)

I fully expect Paulus to start and to be guarding UNC's PG, Lawson or Thomas. Greg was not 100% last year (and Lawson had some big buckets but it's not like he torched us). Greg's obviously never going to be a great one-on-one defender, but he plays good team defense (2nd in steals behind Markie) and will play hard. I disagree with Jumbo that Greg needs to be "hidden" on the defensive end. Lawson can turn the corner on any one of our guys, including Smith. The key will be how we defend as a team. As with all great teams, you have to sort of pick your poison. If Lawson doesn't start, then I think Duke can concentrate on limiting Ellington's open looks and let Hansbrough get his 20+ --- plus have our wings crash the boards to limit 2nd chance shots. So far this year Duke has done a good job on the boards.

WeepingThomasHill
02-05-2008, 03:09 PM
Jumbo's list of questions omitted the most important one: How does Duke prevent Hansborough from setting career highs against us?

I was at the Maryland game and watched Osby and Gist have their way with us inside. Thomas and McClure were helpless and useless against them; Maryland may have won if they had taken better care of the ball. As we all know, Hansborough is a much better player and bigger threat and either Osby or Gist. Hansborough's aggressiveness inside will bother the wispy Thomas, and McClure is going to really struggle against UNC's other big (or vice versa, if we put the veteran McClure on Hansborough). If Lawson is out and we can pressure the entry passing of the inept QT, we have a shot. Let's hope our outside shooting is on, and that the incident last year doesn't affect Henderson too much. If we get into a halfcourt game, Hansborough could get 40 on us, and foul out Thomas and McClure early. Singler is too important to us, especially offensively, to have him trying to guard Hansbourgh.

billybreen
02-05-2008, 03:25 PM
I agree with putting DeMarcus on Ellington and Lance/David on Hansblahblah. I know we won't see it from Duke, but at some point, some team is going to try a junk defense against Carolina and it'll work: triangle and two with the two being on Ellington and Hansfoul or a diamond and one with the one being on Ellington.

I do think that our depth will wear them out, particularly their guards.

Carolina has a lot of trouble staying in front of people. F$U got by them all the time. They missed a LOT of layups and also missed a ton of open three-pointers on kickouts. We need to shoot better than we did in the first half of the Miami game (was there a lid on that basket?) - and if so, we'll do just fine. I don't think that Hanstravel will be chasing Singler, though. One of their other bigs will do that. In fact, I see the big mismatch for them being when Hansgoober's man sets a pick on the ball (either Singler or more probably David or Lance). We can either blow by to the basket if they try and go around the screen or hit a 3-ball/mid range jumper if they go under the screen. I don't see Hansismyleastfavoritetarheel able to switch onto G or DeMarcus or even Jon very well.

Bottom line, I bet they are just as worried about defending us as we are about defending them.

Fantastic use of Hansternatives.

365Duke
02-05-2008, 03:26 PM
How does Duke prevent Hansborough from setting career highs against us?



I agree, however, I do not care if Hansborough gets his career highs against us.

For some reason I'm not sure of yet, I'm not concerned about him. Never have been. This is hard for me to figure out. He just does not scare me in the least. Sure, I know he puts up big numbers. I can't put my finger on it, but let him get as much as he walks..uh..works for. ;)

The one's that have killed us through the years, whether we won or not, have been the non-stars having a "career game", or the 8/9 points a game scorer having a 23 point night. Shut down every one else, and see if one man can beat us.

Go Duke!

Duke79UNLV77
02-05-2008, 03:49 PM
And roll from there. It seems to be a formula that works.

SilkyJ
02-05-2008, 03:57 PM
I agree with putting DeMarcus on Ellington and Lance/David on Hansblahblah...Hansfoul...Hanstravel....Hansgoober 's...Hansismyleastfavoritetarheel

i think the boondock saints said it best: "well that certainly illustrates the diversity of the word"

post was solid, but the use of Hans was excellent. potd.


I thought I read that Brian will have another Xray on Wednesday and that K was hoping to have him back for BC on Saturday. (Having him tomorrow night would be a tremendous bonus, if only to pester the UNC post players for 5-10 minutes.)

Link? I hadn't heard that, but i've been pulling 16 hour days at work so I'm a bit out of the loop...




I disagree with Jumbo that Greg needs to be "hidden" on the defensive end. Lawson can turn the corner on any one of our guys, including Smith.

I agree. I at least think greg deserves a shot. his d has been much better, as I said above.

One note, Nolan played at oak hill with ty lawson so they've probably guarded each other quite a few times...interesting to see how well nolan can guard him. i do agree though that lawson is just fast as heck and can get by anybody.



The one's that have killed us through the years, whether we won or not, have been the non-stars having a "career game", or the 8/9 points a game scorer having a 23 point night. Shut down every one else, and see if one man can beat us.

We used to do that quite often when we had Sheld. I remember specifically the Indiana game at Indiana, I BELIEVE during his senior year (I think it was ACC/small ten challenge) and he was guarding that Auburn transfer killingsworth. We didn't double or help shelden out at all, we just left him on an island to guard the guy, and he went off for like 35 and 15, but we won...

wilko
02-05-2008, 03:58 PM
My strategy is quite simple: have more points than UNC with 00.0 left in the 2nd half. :)

This would have been my plan as well.

Heh... Im reminded of this time Leslie Visser was courtside after an IU loss and she stopped Bobby Knight to ask a question.. "What happened out there today, Coach?" Knights reply... "I dont know if you were watching the game Leslie, but we didnt score enough points today".

Still Kills me.

Clipsfan
02-05-2008, 04:01 PM
Hansborough's aggressiveness inside will bother the wispy Thomas, and McClure is going to really struggle against UNC's other big (or vice versa, if we put the veteran McClure on Hansborough). .

Do we really ever play McClure and Thomas at the same time?

As for it coming down to the bigs, they're going to get their points. We need to hit our 3s like we did against NC State and Miami. The team has struggled for the most part from the 3 point line during conference play, shooting 32.5% over the first 5 games before shooting 42% (close to what they shot in the non-conference schedule) during the past 2 games. If they shoot 42% from 3 against UNC I like their chances.

Jumbo
02-05-2008, 04:08 PM
Jumbo's list of questions omitted the most important one: How does Duke prevent Hansborough from setting career highs against us?

I was at the Maryland game and watched Osby and Gist have their way with us inside. Thomas and McClure were helpless and useless against them; Maryland may have won if they had taken better care of the ball. As we all know, Hansborough is a much better player and bigger threat and either Osby or Gist. Hansborough's aggressiveness inside will bother the wispy Thomas, and McClure is going to really struggle against UNC's other big (or vice versa, if we put the veteran McClure on Hansborough). If Lawson is out and we can pressure the entry passing of the inept QT, we have a shot. Let's hope our outside shooting is on, and that the incident last year doesn't affect Henderson too much. If we get into a halfcourt game, Hansborough could get 40 on us, and foul out Thomas and McClure early. Singler is too important to us, especially offensively, to have him trying to guard Hansbourgh.

I didn't omit it. I said I was willing to concede a big night to him. If he goes off, Duke should still have a great chance to win. I did discuss the small lineup vs. Hans/Thompson/Stephenson.

Something we haven't mentioned, though, is how much UNC misses Wright this year. Hansbrough wasn't Duke's toughest frontcourt matchup last season; Wright was. His length was a killer, his offensive boardwork was excellent and he ran the floor well. Plus, he could actually step out and cover someone like Henderson. Thompson can't.

dukelifer
02-05-2008, 04:12 PM
Thompson worries me most on this team. He is capable of a big game. He also has a nice array of shots around the hoop. Duke will have their hands full dealing with him and Hansblah. But I agree that Duke is a tad deeper and if Lawson does not play- much deeper- so they key will be to keep it close and be fresher at crunch time. There will be runs in the game- both ways - and it will be intense- but I expect it to be close with a few minutes remaining - and Duke might shine at that time by spreading the floor. I am looking forward to seeing how K manages this game and how Duke deals with the size mismatches. We will learn a lot about the team for sure.

mehmattski
02-05-2008, 04:18 PM
Do we really ever play McClure and Thomas at the same time?

As for it coming down to the bigs, they're going to get their points. We need to hit our 3s like we did against NC State and Miami. The team has struggled for the most part from the 3 point line during conference play, shooting 32.5% over the first 5 games before shooting 42% (close to what they shot in the non-conference schedule) during the past 2 games. If they shoot 42% from 3 against UNC I like their chances.

According to Jumbo's excellent work, Coach K has played McClure and Thomas together in 9 different lineups, none of which has appeared more than three times. In fact, one time we went "superbig" (as much as this team can) with the two of them AND Zoubek!

Anyway, as I mentioned in another thread, there's not enough attention given to Duke's strengths around here. In the last two games, Duke has generated a lot of offense by:

1) Drive to the hoop and pick up a foul
2) If drive is not there, pull up for 2 or kick it out
3) Singler/King/McClure sets a screen for Paulus/Smith, open 3

Which of these things are most likely to be shut down by Carolina's defense. According to Pomeroy's recorded statistics (http://kenpom.com/sr.php?team=North%20Carolina), Carolina is a very average team in defending the 2-point shot. Henderson (52%), Smith (56%) and Singler (58%) are very good at hitting 2 pointers.

Meanwhile, if Lawson is guarding Paulus and Hansblah is guarding Singler... and Singler comes out for a high screen, does Hansblah follow? More importantly, does Hansblah switch onto Paulus (advantage- Singler on the pick and roll) or does Lawson try to fight through the screen (advantage- Paulus for 3, just like vs State and Miami).

Carolina's defense, prior to ACC play, was ranked in the top 5 in defensive efficiency (points per possession). Since then, they've fallen to 33rd place. Duke keeps defensive efficiency with steals and low field goal percentage. (http://kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Duke) Carolina, meanwhile, does it with an extraordinarily low opponent free throw rate- they just don't foul very often. In addition, they grab a lot of offensive rebounds.

This evidence leads me to believe that Duke can have a decent to great shooting night both from behind the arc and on pullup jumpers. If they can add in a better showing at the free throw line than UNC's other opponents, I think we're looking at a Duke offensive explosion. And I'll trade 3 for 2 all day long....

Stray Gator
02-05-2008, 04:20 PM
Originally Posted by dukerev
I agree with putting DeMarcus on Ellington and Lance/David on Hansblahblah...Hansfoul...Hanstravel....Hansgoober 's...Hansismyleastfavoritetarheel

i think the boondock saints said it best: "well that certainly illustrates the diversity of the word"

post was solid, but the use of Hans was excellent. potd.

*************

Unfortunately, ACC officials know him as "Hans-off"...

wilko
02-05-2008, 04:30 PM
I dont care if several UNC players have career days on us as long as we get the W.

I think the best thing we can do is what we have been doing..spread kick and drive. Draw fouls keep them off the floor, make the extra pass, make smart decisions. Keep them running and running and running... FORCING them into expending energy on D. Wear those SOB's down.

I hope Greg keeps knocking them down. I hope Nolan can continue to develop and be a 3rd "power-driver" (my term, I think I just made it up) to compliment G and Markie.

Kyle has to bust a few 3s to keep the lane open. His play against Miami should get their attention on the perimeter.

Lance and David need to be solid, not spectacular (but I'll darn sure take it if they choose to be spectacular) I think Lance will benefit the most when Zoubek returns..

My hope upon hope was that Zoubek would be ready to go.. just a change of pace they havent scouted for.. 3 or 5 min to get them out of synch if possible. I figure Brian will be the Great Wall of China and slow them down occupy space and give helpside time to recover. and he still may play who knows.. :-)

bottom line.
If Lawson is anything less than 100% I think we wear then down sooner rather than later...

bird
02-05-2008, 04:31 PM
Historically, Duke has good success with small teams defending opposing a big post. I would cite Purdue/Big Dog. Duke also has had good success against teams with a near-superstar individual player. In both scenarios, as noted on this thread, a secondary player sometimes blows up on us as our focus on the big post/superstar creates space for other players. I agree with Jumbo that perhaps the most critical matchup is Ellington, and I hate the idea of anyone other than Nelson guarding Ellington, especially given that the pressure from Hansborough may lead to Ellington getting space and time.

On the other hand, I actually have comfort with Paulus defending the point, especially with relief from Smith and maybe even Nelson at times. Subjectively, I feel like Paulus has been playing good defense during ACC play. Time after time, I see the other side's players who are matched up on Paulus thinking they can take him, with the play ending with a bad shot or a turnover. They are thinking last-year's injured Paulus, and last years' end of season team-defense letdown. Perhaps perception has not yet caught up (even here) with the healthy 2008-09 version of Paulus and a clicking 2008-09 team defense.

devildeac
02-05-2008, 04:41 PM
My brain said Lawson but my fingers insisted on typing Smith. I don't like Nelson on Smith either.

gw67

I would bet that is a helluva matchup (in practice every day):D

Constantstrain 81
02-05-2008, 06:54 PM
Because of our switching on defense, I'm not sure the original match-ups will last past a few high screens. Whether it is Tyler or Thompson down low, if UNC gets the ball down low in their hands and we don't double down quickly, then they will score. So has everyone else this season when we let that happen. The trick for us, is not letting that happen.

Lawson was a big key to them breaking down the ball pressure - if he doesn't play or is not 100%, it is an advantage to us. So ... pressure the dribbler, protect the 3 point line, double down on the big men.

We have to run and we have to pressure in order to use our advantage - depth.

They do not truly have a big shot blocker. Unless we totally tank from 3 point range - they could have a great deal of trouble guarding us. Both teams will get to the line plenty.

Keys? Making free throws and preventing offensive rebounding.

Our strategy - continue to pressure the ball -always. Continue to play a deep bench. Drive and shoot, drive and kick. Make UNC play defense - make them tired. No quick shots leading to easy rebound and no fatigue. Push it up - if no easy layup, then pull it out and run an offense. Make them work. Pressure all over the half court - if they get free for a layup, then shake it off and move on.

We'll need the nerve tonight - UNC will play their best game of the season (with or without Lawson). As Apollo 13's script calls it - we'll need to be a bunch of "steely-eyed missilemen."

DukieInBrasil
02-05-2008, 09:06 PM
When I first saw the espn line that Lawson got hurt my reaction was "Now Holes fans are gonna gripe that they had to play without a star player." Well, that sucks, cuz he's a good player and fun to watch/root against. At any rate, Duke will prob'ly have an advantage that we didn't anticipate before for several reasons. 1) UNC will have a tougher time running their offense with Frasor rather than Lawson 2) UNCs depth will be exposed more; even if Lawson does play he won't be near 100% 3) Duke won't be seeing mismatches with Paulus nearly as much as well as Nelson will be able to D up on someone else 4) our offense will be able to run normally if Paulus stays in at PG rather than being forced to have Nolan run PG 5)Duke will be using its normal line-up to which it is accustomed and comfortable while UNC will be using an alternate line-up with which it may not be comfortable and 6) the refs will be so confused by the absence of Lawson that they'll actually blow whistles on Hansfeetwilltravel when he walks the entire length of the floor without driblling (UNC will try to turn Psycho-Ty into a PG believing that he won't be whistled for traveling and would therefore just be able to carry the ball thru the D rather than dribbling)….

SilkyJ
02-05-2008, 10:42 PM
1) UNC will have a tougher time running their offense with Frasor rather than Lawson .

frasor is out with a knee. happened like a month ago. Quentin thomas is lawson's backup....which probably only helps your point.

Billy Dat
02-05-2008, 11:30 PM
Keys to me are:
-Shoot well from 3
-Play fast with them but make our lay-ups when the opportunity presents
-Try to avoid frontline foul trouble as long as possible
-Intense pressure on the perimeter to limit Psycho T catching the ball deep
-Immediate double on Psycho T when he catches the ball in the post to try and force him to give it up, something he doesn't do well.
-Team rebound to limit 2nd shots
-Score more points

Right now, I think a lot of people have largely given up on Carolina as a serious National Title contender because their D sucks and they have played A LOT of close ACC games (Lawson's injury doesn't help). At the same time, people have not accepted Duke as a serious National Title contender because we're too short up front. At the end of the game, one team will have really changed people's minds - I hope it's us.

mus074
02-06-2008, 02:23 AM
Carolina's defense, prior to ACC play, was ranked in the top 5 in defensive efficiency (points per possession). Since then, they've fallen to 33rd place.

I agree with nearly everything you have had to say; however, I don't know if this part is correct. In fact, I think they have improved some from mid-40's a couple of weeks ago, to No. 30 (thru 2/6). I don't know the exact rank pre-conference, but I am nearly certain it was not top 10 any time this season.

SilkyJ
02-06-2008, 02:23 AM
-Score more points


intriguing.

yet tactical.

dukerev
02-06-2008, 08:15 AM
Another defensive thought:

I think one of the biggest issues is where their bigs get the ball. If Hans-off (I like that) gets it on the low block every time, we won't be able to double fast enough and/or it won't matter. He'll score at will. BUT if we can push him out five-eight feet, and he gets the ball closer to the wing or nearer the free throw line, there will be time to double and he'll have to make a move/lower his shoulder/take a dribble/etc. to score more effectively. By all means, Hansaluiagamedayisfinallyhere can score on jumpers, but he is way more productive on the low block, being able to use the glass. Where their bigs get the ball will make a HUGE difference in how effective their offense is, particularly if Lawson doesn't play/is less effective and can't penetrate (as well).

dukeENG2003
02-06-2008, 08:15 AM
while talking strategy, I think its worth mentioning this. . .

I'd LOVE to see zone D in this game. Who on UNC is really that capable of knocking down the 3? Ellington for sure, as well as Green, but outside of those two, they aren't very good. Marcus Ginyard and Will Graves are the only other players that shoot over 30% from the bonus-sphere, and they haven't taken that many anyways (I'd argue that they aren't very good shooters, but just have a small sample size). Not a "sit back" zone, but a pressure, trapping zone. Make them shoot jumpshots, cuz outside of those two, I don't think they can do it.

Equally important is how well we hit the 3. If we aren't knocking down shots, we could be in trouble. We won't get a lot of foul calls on the drives. Unfortunately, it seems that home court=refereeing advantage thus far in the ACC (its applied about equally both for and against us, but its true).

Indoor66
02-06-2008, 08:48 AM
frasor is out with a knee. happened like a month ago. Quentin thomas is lawson's backup....which probably only helps your point.

ROFLMAO

Troublemaker
02-06-2008, 10:05 AM
Re: Paulus, I would put him on Ginyard, with Nelson/Smith on Lawson, and Henderson/Scheyer on Ellington. Otherwise, if Paulus is on Lawson or Ellington, it would feel like we're "wasting" a good defender on Ginyard when the defender could be applied elsewhere, i.e. Lawson or Ellington. Of course, if Ellington ends up going off on Henderson or Scheyer, or Ginyard ends up killing Paulus on the o-boards, then yeah, switch Nelson onto Ellington and put Paulus on the point. Everything is subject to change.

A poster noted above that screens will change the matchups. Where I'm most concerned about this will be after a Duke made basket. A Carolina big will inbound to Lawson and run alongside him into the halfcourt where each of them will end up on opposite sides of the key from each other beyond the 3-pt line. After an initial look into the post by Lawson, which should be covered if we ran back on defense, the inbounding big will dive down into the post and set a pick for a shooter (let's say Ellington) that is simultaneously popping outside into the vacant space to receive a pass from Lawson. We need to avoid switching on this screen. Otherwise, Ellington will usually be able to enter the ball into the inbounding big who now is matched against a Duke guard on the inside.

It's the only screen I'm terribly worried about. UNC usually doesn't do much high-post screening; if they use it much tonight, it'll be because they changed the gameplan for Duke. As for big-on-big interior screening, we should be fine there given our ball pressure up top not allowing vision for the entry. But I am concerned about the dive down screen described above. My hope is we don't have to switch it in order to prevent an open look for Ellington.

Carlos
02-06-2008, 10:26 AM
I decided to start a separate strategy thread in addition to the usual pre-game thread, because of this particular opponent. Here's what I'll be looking for Wednesday night:

1) Who guards whom on the perimeter to start the game?

....snip....

Because of my fear of Ellington starting strong, I want DeMarcus to guard him. He's far better defender than Henderson. Plus, even if you hide Paulus on Ginyard, you still run the risk of Ginyard making an impact on the offensive boards. So, I'd bite the bullet early, have Paulus start on Lawson, put Markie on Ellington and stick Gerald on Ginyard. Obviously, this is all moot if Lawson doesn't play. And we'll surely see a ton of Scheyer and Smith -- I can't wait to see Smith on Lawson, Scheyer on Ellington (because of his ability to chase guys through screens) and Nelson on the third wing (which will be a nice little break for him), as I think that's Duke's top defensive perimeter trio. But it's fun to speculate about the first few minutes.

There are so many variables in this one that it makes you appreciate how hard it is to be a head coach. Does Lawson play? If Lawson doesn't play how effective will Paulus be against Thomas? How will Nolan Smith handle his first trip to the Dean Dome?

I'm going to assume that Lawson plays - mainly because of the reports of him being seen out and about in Chapel Hill with crutches. Too coincidental for my cynical thought process.

If Lawson is in the game I think you start out with Paulus on him and see if Greg can stay with him given the injury factor. But if he's not then the option is either bring in Nolan Smith or make a switch on defense which is a decision that will be predicated on how well Paulus is playing on offense. Is the team running well with him? Is he hitting his threes at the 52% clip he's put up over the last three games?

If Duke does end up making the switch I'm in favor of putting Demarcus on Lawson and trying Paulus on either Ginyard or Ellington. Again, you don't make that switch unless Lawson has been killing you so at that point you go to your best defender. As for which guy you try to hide Paulus on there are two considerations. With Ellington, you have the much more dangerous offensive player. But you also have a guy who has been less effective over the last few weeks than he was earlier in the season. Since the GaTech game he's shooting just 39% from the floor and 27% on threes. Of course, you know he's a great scorer and you don't want to be the team that is facing him when he does come out of his slump.

With Ginyard he has a huge physical advantage over Paulus but that advantage is primarily in strength, not quickness. With Greg's toughness I think he stands a better chance of mitigating the advantage of a player who is stronger as opposed to quicker. There is always the fear that you mentioned of Ginyard being able to rebound over Paulus but offensive rebounding has a lot to do with positioning on the court and if he's going to be hovering around the glass to take advantage of his size over Paulus then it adds two more bodies congesting the paint and giving Hansbrough less room to work. Likewise, if the Heels were to try and post Ginyard against Paulus it may be successful, but it also takes them out of their normal offense.

So if we're looking at the matchups in just the context of your question then I would favor Paulus on Ginyard. Not that any of that matters because Duke switches so much on D this year that this all goes out the window on the first cut through the lane.




2) How often will Duke use its 4-guard lineup? And how will it match up with UNC's two strong posts?

So, who gets the better of it? Can Duke pull Thompson/Stephenson (there's no way Hansbrough will cover one of the perimeter guys) away from the basket and either beat them to the basket or burn them from the perimeter? Will Carolina go to town with one of those guys posting up G? How will Duke help in the post, and how will that affect Hansbrough on the other side, and Carolina's offensive rebounding? While both teams can adjust (Duke can and will play two forwards much of the night and UNC can move Green to the 4), this is the most fascinating scenario to watch. It's speed vs. strength. Generally, at the college level, I favor speed, especially in a spread attack like Duke's. I think Carolina's bigs will struggle defending the pick-and-roll, especially if it's big-on-big (say, Thompson guarding G on the ball, with Singler, guarded by Hansbrough, setting the screen).

That's the essence of this game. I would suspect that Duke will definitely want to go to the smaller lineup when Stephenson is in the game, whether he's paired with Hansbrough or Thompson. He's not nearly the scorer that Thompson is (and of course, that Hansbrough is) so you have less to worry about with him being able to abuse our smaller lineup.

I would also think that, for reasons listed above, if Duke does go to the smaller lineup it will be primarily with Lawson out of the game for the Heels or Paulus out of the game for Duke. If you have to play Nelson on Lawson it takes away one of the strong defenders and rebounders Duke can use around the basket.

BTW - just typing the preceding paragraph reminds me how great a defender Duke has in Nelson. We're talking about him being used on point guards and power forwards. Not a whole lot of guys in the league that you can say that about.

Last thought on this point - I wouldn't rule out Hansbrough defending away from the basket if Carolina sticks with two bigs. If you watch some of their games he's actually the best of their three big guys at defending on the perimeter. The big difference here is that he's usually defending 6-9 guys out there, not 6-4 guys.

Finally, another huge key to the game will be for Duke to keep Tyler Hansbrough off the free throw line. Easier said than done, but Duke's defenders need to hold their ground and make Hansbrough score over them rather than trying to block his shot. I'd rather Hanbrough score 30 points from the field than see him foul out our entire front line while marching to the FT line every other possession. He's a great player but his biggest asset (other than his incredible motor) is the ability to draw fouls by initiating contact from defenders and then heaving the ball at the basket. Duke's big men have to body up to him but keep their arms straight up rather than trying to reach in for the ball. Let the guards coming down to help try to swipe at the ball.

mkirsh
02-06-2008, 11:47 AM
I think we know that Coach K will line up Nelson with UNC's best perimeter player, which I think will be Ellington to start the game, and that means Paulus matching up with Lawson. The Paulus/Lawson match up doesn't terrify me, mostly because I've never through Lawson to be a really dominant halfcourt player, but from what little I've seen of UNC he is devastating in transition as he can go end to end with the ball faster than anyone I've seen. In this case, the initial assignment matters less, and if we can keep them from scoring on the break I think Paulus can manage ok in half court (especially if Lawson isn't 100%, but in these games people always seem to find a way to play effectively through injury).

I'll be very curious to see how Duke elects to defend the post. Obivously priority #1 will be ball pressure to make the entry pass difficult, but once the ball is in the post will we double down from the wing (and leave Ellington and Green with open looks), double from the weak side (and rely on good defensive rotation), or just let Hansbrough get his 30+ and try to shut down everyone esle (the Marco Killingsworth strategy)? I've never seen Coach K double much, so my guess is that it will be option 3 and Hans will have a big day, with the resulting key for our D being limiting Ellington, Green, and Lawson, and keeping Thompson/Stevenson off the glass. Not sure who K will put as the primary defender to Hans, but if it's Kyle he really needs to be careful with fouls. Might even see TK guard him some (in his 5 first half minutes of course) as he's shown a knack for sliding around post players and stealing entry passes without getting called for fouls, and seems less lost guarding the post compared to being on the perimeter where some of the switching creates problems for him.

On the other end, I would bet that Hans will guard Singler. Last year he guarded Josh out on the perimeter, and while I expected Josh to go right around him he never was able to. I know Singler is way more offensively skilled than Josh so not apples to apples, but Hans isn't a terrible defensive player so Kyle will have to be smart about how he attack him. If he can be effective and make Hans really work on D or maybe pick up a few cheap fouls then it could make our defensive effort a little easier. I would also expect Hans to be VERY physical with Kyle, so how the game is officiated will play a big part.

Looking forward to a great game

gw67
02-06-2008, 11:56 AM
I've really enjoyed reading the posts in this thread. Some very good analyses and thoughts.

gw67

Dbluedevils1530
02-06-2008, 01:32 PM
- Force UNC to turn the ball over.
- Drive to the lane and hopefully we can get Hansbrough into foul trouble
- Use the bench, we have a deep bench and UNC is kind of weak when it comes to their bench.
- We can NOT turn the ball over. If we do we will be in trouble
- Shut down Hansbrough. If we do that we will be in good shape. UNC isn't much when he can't do anything.
- Play tough on defense.

Dukerati
02-06-2008, 01:57 PM
Here's a thought that no one has thrown out there:

Could it be better if Lawson played?

Without Lawson, UNC will probably favor a slower, more half-court style of play that will emphasize pounding the ball inside even more than they are already planning to. Roy always looks to go inside first anyways and without Lawson, he may look to press that advantage even more.

With Lawson in the game, UNC's transition game improves but at what cost? In a halfcourt game, UNC may become easier to defend as Lawson's primary skillset is not shooting but slashing to the basket. Duke has exhibited pretty strong help defense and if everyone crashes down inside when Lawson drives, I could see that being more beneficial than watching the accursed THans bob and travel his way to career highs...

Wander
02-06-2008, 01:58 PM
Could it be better if Lawson played?


Not a chance.

devildeac
02-06-2008, 05:53 PM
I decided to start a separate strategy thread in addition to the usual pre-game thread, because of this particular opponent. Here's what I'll be looking for Wednesday night:

1) Who guards whom on the perimeter to start the game?

Duke doesn't actually play its "starting lineup" together all that often after the start of each half. Still, assuming Lawson plays, how will the perimeter defensive assignments stack up? Or, more to the point, where do you put Paulus? I really only see two options -- he guards Lawson, or you try to "hide" him on Ginyard. He can't guard Ellington; not only can Wayne beat Greg off the dribble, but I can't see Greg chasing him through all those screens, and Wayne can just shoot over him. The last thing I want to see happen is for Ellington to go off early (more on that later).

Because of my fear of Ellington starting strong, I want DeMarcus to guard him. He's far better defender than Henderson. Plus, even if you hide Paulus on Ginyard, you still run the risk of Ginyard making an impact on the offensive boards. So, I'd bite the bullet early, have Paulus start on Lawson, put Markie on Ellington and stick Gerald on Ginyard. Obviously, this is all moot if Lawson doesn't play. And we'll surely see a ton of Scheyer and Smith -- I can't wait to see Smith on Lawson, Scheyer on Ellington (because of his ability to chase guys through screens) and Nelson on the third wing (which will be a nice little break for him), as I think that's Duke's top defensive perimeter trio. But it's fun to speculate about the first few minutes.

2) How often will Duke use its 4-guard lineup? And how will it match up with UNC's two strong posts?
This question could very well decide the game. The Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson-Singler lineup is Duke's second-most frequently used lineup, after the starters. From a plus/minus (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4862) perspective, it hasn't been as wonderful as I'd hoped, at +32 in 38 shifts. Throw in the fact that K has used that group with Smith in for Paulus another 16 times, and that Thomas has replaced Singler with either of the two PGs in a total of 15 times, and it's clear that we like to go small often.

So, who gets the better of it? Can Duke pull Thompson/Stephenson (there's no way Hansbrough will cover one of the perimeter guys) away from the basket and either beat them to the basket or burn them from the perimeter? Will Carolina go to town with one of those guys posting up G? How will Duke help in the post, and how will that affect Hansbrough on the other side, and Carolina's offensive rebounding? While both teams can adjust (Duke can and will play two forwards much of the night and UNC can move Green to the 4), this is the most fascinating scenario to watch. It's speed vs. strength. Generally, at the college level, I favor speed, especially in a spread attack like Duke's. I think Carolina's bigs will struggle defending the pick-and-roll, especially if it's big-on-big (say, Thompson guarding G on the ball, with Singler, guarded by Hansbrough, setting the screen).

3) Can Duke's depth wear out the Heels?
Yeah, you read that right. Duke has the deeper team. Green is a fantastic sixth man. Stephenson is good reserve in the post. But after that, the talent really drops off. The next two guys in UNC's rotation are Thomas and Graves. Neither is close to McClure and King, Duke's eighth and ninth guys. And if QT has to start, Carolina's backcourt depth is a MAJOR problem. For the people who believe in such things (and I'm not sure I do), Duke has the personnel and the intense ball-pressure to tire out the Heels -- especially their guards.

4) How will UNC defend Duke's pick-and-rolls?
I was watching this during the Florida State game, because FSU plays three guards all the time and ran a lot of spread stuff with high ball-screens. Against FSU, UNC's bigs hedged really wide. FSU struggled agaisnt that until they started to split the hedge off the dribble. Unfortunately, Markie and Nolan are really the only two Duke guards who do that effectively. Scheyer and, in particular, Henderson, like to dribble wide off the ball-screen. And Paulus doesn't look to drive; he looks to shoot off the screen. But there's a catch -- Hansbrough/Thompson/Stephenson were able to hedge wide because FSU's bigs weren't perimeter threats -- they were rolling, not popping. It's a totally different challenge when Singler and King are setting that high screen. They can't hedge nearly as far. So, will UNC trap the ball-handler? Switch everything? Show-and-recover? Hedge as far as they did against FSU? Pick-and-roll defense will be huge.

5. Can Singler avoid foul trouble?

I'm conceding a rebound advantage to UNC. I'm conceding points in the paint. I'm conceding the fact that Lance, who has battled foul problems all year, probably will rack up a few on Wednesday night. But Duke can't afford to lose Singler at the offensive end. So he needs to be judicious in the post and, most of all, he CANNOT commit fouls 30 feet from the basket. I love the kid's hustle and will, but the risk of his gambling so far away from the hoop isn't worth the benefit in this game. Singler's ability to stretch the D and potentially get Hansbrough in foul trouble by facing up on him is critical. The kid needs to stay on the court.

Obviously there are other keys. We've talked all year about converting turnovers into points, minimizing damage in the post, finding more ways to get Scheyer shots, figuring out which Taylor King will show up, etc. But I'll be watching the five issues above particularly closely.

Jumbo, This thread was a FABULOUS idea. Lots of education and discussion here. One of the better ideas/efforts on the board since I have been lurking/posting. I have learned a tremendous amount poring over this the last couple days. Hope K read it. too:D .

Jumbo
02-07-2008, 05:26 PM
So how did these issues turn out? Let's see...


1) Who guards whom on the perimeter to start the game?

This turned out to be a non-issue because Lawson didn't play.


2) How often will Duke use its 4-guard lineup? And how will it match up with UNC's two strong posts?

Duke used a four-guard lineup five times and outscored UNC by six points during those stretches. We probably would have seen more of this strategy, if not for Nelson's foul trouble. Duke did a very good job of spreading the floor in this set, and we went small to finish the game, holding our own.


3) Can Duke's depth wear out the Heels?
This didn't end up as a big issue either -- McClure and King didn't play much. Duke's main players logged big minutes as did Carolina's. Having Scheyer available off the bench certainly helped, though.



4) How will UNC defend Duke's pick-and-rolls?
UNC tried the hard hedges early, and did a good job at the beginning of forcing Duke's guards to take wide angles. But Duke eventually exposed their lack of quickness. Thompson got called for at least two fouls on those wide hedges; Hansbrough got hit with one. Nolan Smith split the two defenders once. And then UNC adjusted a bit, and started making mistakes. Their guard went under ball-screens, which gave Paulus room to launch threes. Their bigs showed and couldn't recover, leaving Singler open behind the arc. Duke was successful with half-court stuff beyond ball-screens, but UNC has a real problem figuring out how to guard them. My best guess for the second matchup is that UNC will try to trap them and rotate. At least, that's what I would do.


5. Can Singler avoid foul trouble?
Yup, and getting 37 minutes from him was absolutely crucial.

dukelifer
02-07-2008, 07:27 PM
Thompson worries me most on this team. He is capable of a big game. He also has a nice array of shots around the hoop. Duke will have their hands full dealing with him and Hansblah. But I agree that Duke is a tad deeper and if Lawson does not play- much deeper- so they key will be to keep it close and be fresher at crunch time. There will be runs in the game- both ways - and it will be intense- but I expect it to be close with a few minutes remaining - and Duke might shine at that time by spreading the floor. I am looking forward to seeing how K manages this game and how Duke deals with the size mismatches. We will learn a lot about the team for sure.

For a while there- Thompson looked to be the x factor. What I did not account for was his inability to play D. Fortunately for Duke, his foul trouble kept him off the floor because he was very effective when in there. I am not sure he will fix this problem this year- but he is a very talented offensive player. Duke again did very well at the end of the game spreading the floor and hitting free throws in the last few minutes is going to be key. Nelson is really improving. We need Henderson to do the same. If the team can hit near 80 percent in crunch time- they will be hard to beat.

Clipsfan
02-07-2008, 08:23 PM
And I'm going to stick with my comment that they'd get theirs inside but that if we hit the outside shot (more than 40%) we'd win. It would have been a very close game (hard to tell what would happen with rebounds etc) if we'd only hit 40%...