ACC Roundup

[gw67]

As mentioned in the DBR write-up, Clemson is now 4-3 but 6 of their remaining league games are on the road, including one against UNC. They are 0-2 on the road this year and, in the past, have not been a good road team. With their good RPI, I suspect that they need to win 4 more games to be on safe ground for the NCAA.

After their win against Virginia, the Hokies are now 5-3 with a good chance to win ½ of their remaining games and go 9-7. Tech should be very good next year but the freshmen are playing well now and Geenburg has developed a good rotation with his players.

Maryland has made a remarkable turnaround and won 8 out 10, including two good road wins. Their starting five is competitive with any team in the ACC; however, their bench is very weak. They have two youngsters who can provide some minutes on the perimeter but so far, none of their big men off the bench have shown that they are capable of playing in the ACC. Yesterday, they defeated a surging Georgia Tech team with all five starters playing more than 30 minutes. If Cremins was their coach, I suspect that he would tell the starters to man up and would continue to play them without much rest.

BC started out 3-0 and are now 3-4. They need to turn it around fast to have a chance at finishing 8-8. They start with the Terps at home.

Virginia and Miami have sunk to the bottom of the ACC and I suspect that they will stay there. Unfortunately, I don’t see Virginia getting well soon. The comments by Scott that were repeated in the DBR write-up were not very positive. Leitao has a wonderful new playing facility and a great school but he has not used them to advantage in getting good recruits, at least, so far.

gw67

[Olympic Fan]

Good points, but before we consign Miami and Virginia to the basement, let's see what happens today. I feel fairly confident that FSU will lose to UNC, which would leave them below Miami at 2-6. And if Wake were to beat N.C. State (much more of a tossup), the bottom of the league would like like this:

NC State 2-5
Miami 2-5
FSU 2-6
Virginia 1-6

I had a really smart guy point out to me yesterday a point to illustrate how strong the bottom of the ACC is -- the league's two worst teams have won at Arizona and at Florida.

Really key game today for NC State -- I could see them recovering from 3-4 in the ACC to get to 8-8 (the bare minimum to even be thinking about an NCAA at-large bid ... although with the New Orleans and ECU games on their resume, it's probably going to take more than that). I can't see how the Pack -- or the other three bottom dwellers -- recover from 2-5 or worse (I know Maryland did last year, but I doubt it happens again).

In a way, that's a positive development. What the ACC doesn't need this year are 10 teams with roughly the same ACC record. As it now seems to be setting up, we'll have Duke and UNC at the top, fighting for a No. 1 NCAA seed. We'll have NCS, Miami, FSU and Virginia at the bottom, fattening up the NCAA resumes of the teams in the middle.

What the ACC needs is for Clemson and Maryland to stay strong. Maryland had a poor pre-ACC start, so the Terps need to finish better than 8-8. Clemson is in a little better shape with its fairly strong pre-ACC showing (although there aren't any real eye-popping non-ACC wins there -- Purdue? DePaul? at Miss State?). But both teams have a really strong chance to qualify for the ACC's third and fourth bids. It would certain help their chances to sweep the bottom feeders. Clemson has four more games against the bottom four and three of them are on the road -- which is good, because the Tigers have GOT to win on the road to get a bid. Maryland also has four games left against the bottom four, a chance to fatten their ACC record.

That leaves Wake, BC, VPI and Ga Tech fighting for one or two more bids. It would help the league if they could sweep the bottom four. It probably would help more if two of the four could sweep the other two. As long as they stay in a muddle in the middle, it's going to be hard for any of them to think about getting an NCAA win.

I hate to say this as a Duke fan, but it would also help some of the borderline teams to beat either UNC or Duke -- those are the only two ACC teams that beating could make a big impact on the selection committee.

Maryland's win at UNC is huge -- it helps offset that terrible American loss. Clemson doesn't have anything like that on its resume.