Charting Duke vs. NC State

[Jumbo]

Folks, we've got a pretty amazing development tonight. During the second half run, my thoughts drifted to MOTM and Paulus' name was the obvious choice. But then I started to notice that quietly, Kyle Singler was involved in a ton of big plays. Well, wait until I saw the numbers. Kyle Singler was a +30! In other words, when he was off the floor, Duke got outscored by 10 points. And that coincided with Taylor King's playing time, for the most part, as he was a -12. Paulus made some momentum shifting plays and had a truly fabulous night. But I hope Singler's contributions don't get lost in the discussion.

On to the stats...

Individuals
Kyle Singler 84-54 (+30)
Greg Paulus 84-62 (+22)
DeMarcus Nelson 86-65 (+21)
Lance Thomas 50-36 (+14)
David McClure 22-12 (+10)
Jon Scheyer 40-32 (+8)
Gerald Henderson 65-59 (+6)
Nolan Smith 16-15 (+1)
Jordan Davidson 2-2 (0)
Taylor King 11-23 (-12)

Per 40 Minutes
David McClure +44.4
Kyle Singler +36.4
Greg Paulus +26.7
Lance Thomas +26.7
DeMarcus Nelson +22.1
Jon Scheyer +18.8
Gerald Henderson +8.3
Nolan Smith +4
Jordan Davidson 0
Taylor King -53.3

Lineups
Paulus-Nelson-Henderson-Singler-Thomas (x5) 36-20 (+16)
Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-McClure-Singler (x2) 17-8 (+9)
Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-Singler-Thomas (x2) 6-2 (+4)
Paulus-Smith-Nelson-Henderson-Singler (x2) 6-3 (+3)
Paulus-Nelson-Henderson-McClure-Singler (x2) 5-4 (+1)
Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-Singler-Thomas (x2) 2-1 (+1)
Paulus-Davidson-Smith-Scheyer-King 2-2 (0)
Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-McClure-Singler 0-0 (0)
Davidson-Smith-Scheyer-McClure-King 0-0 (0)
Paulus-Scheyer-Henderson-King-Thomas 4-5 (-1)
Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson-Singler (x2) 9-11 (-2)
Paulus-Nelson-Henderson-King-Singler 3-5 (-2)
Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson-King 0-3 (-3)
Smith-Nelson-Henderson-King-Thomas 2-8 (-6)

[Jumbo]

Updated with the per-40 minutes (Sorry, Taylor!).

[dukepsy1963]

Silky Singler... I, for one, am simply amazed by him; game after game! He is the real thing! But, Taylor's days/months/years are coming ....and sooner than we think.

[wumhenry]

He scored what? 18 points, but his +/- rating for the game is way down near the bottom of the list. What accounts for that?

[jma4life]

If I had a dime for every time someone scored 9 and was plus 20, and similarly, for everytime somoene was amongst the leaders and had a relatively poor plus minus, I'd have a few dimes.

That said, Henderson was probably in with King when the team did badly.

Anyway, wow on Singler. + 30 is a huge plus for a single player in an acc game.

[loran16]

@wumhenry, well partially its because you'll notice he was on the floor in all but one time King was (and you'll notice that the one time king was on the floor without henderson, it was the final 30 seconds).

Also, henderson's D isnt the best on the floor, and most of his points came in the 2nd half after NC State had more or less thrown in the towel. While he was also in the game, struggling like the rest of the players in the first half.

[Exiled_Devil]

Henderson didn't struggle in the first half, though. He was 2 for 2 at half time. More likely, he was in when we struggeld offensively and didn't get the bal much. I don't recall his defenxive assignmnet much - but I would guess that he was the 4 when we went small on occasions, which would be challenging against the bigs for State

[loran16]

Henderson didn't struggle in the first half, though. He was 2 for 2 at half time. More likely, he was in when we struggeld offensively and didn't get the bal much. I don't recall his defenxive assignmnet much - but I would guess that he was the 4 when we went small on occasions, which would be challenging against the bigs for State

Well yes, 2 for 2 at halftime. But the team was slacking, and that was in part due to his play.

+/- measures other things besides points.

[Jumbo]

Henderson didn't struggle in the first half, though. He was 2 for 2 at half time. More likely, he was in when we struggeld offensively and didn't get the bal much. I don't recall his defenxive assignmnet much - but I would guess that he was the 4 when we went small on occasions, which would be challenging against the bigs for State

Duke only went small for a brief portion of the first half. With Henderson at the "4" in the first half, Duke did get outscored 9-2, though.

[mus074]

Using Jumbo's excellent work on who's on the floor for numbers of lineups and the net, I looked at just Paulus and Singler, including playing together. Paulus had a good night, but it was when Singler was out there too. Whether it was dependent on him or not is not for me to say.

Paulus was on the floor in 19 lineups, 14 of them with Singler. Singler was on the floor for 17, including the 14 with Paulus. There were only two lineups that did not include either. (Where a lineup was used multiple times, I used that multiple, resulting in 24 total lineups.)

When they were in the lineup together, the 14 lineups scored a net +23. Paulus without Singler, 5 lineups, was a net -1. Singler without Paulus, 3 lineups, a net +4. The two lineups without either... a net -6.

Clearly, they created a good combo on the night.

[Jumbo]

Using Jumbo's excellent work on who's on the floor for numbers of lineups and the net, I looked at just Paulus and Singler, including playing together. Paulus had a good night, but it was when Singler was out there too. Whether it was dependent on him or not is not for me to say.

Paulus was on the floor in 19 lineups, 14 of them with Singler. Singler was on the floor for 17, including the 14 with Paulus. There were only two lineups that did not include either. (Where a lineup was used multiple times, I used that multiple, resulting in 24 total lineups.)

When they were in the lineup together, the 14 lineups scored a net +23. Paulus without Singler, 5 lineups, was a net -1. Singler without Paulus, 3 lineups, a net +4. The two lineups without either... a net -6.

Clearly, they created a good combo on the night.


Excellent work -- thanks!

[Exiled_Devil]

Well yes, 2 for 2 at halftime. But the team was slacking, and that was in part due to his play.

+/- measures other things besides points.

I can't argue with the team play, but I can't let Henderson's success later in the game get dismissed (by another poster, not you) by the Pack mailing it in - if that was the case, then Paulus's second half could be described similarly.

It's interesting to me...I need to look at the patterns more, and also look at a season-to-date number. Because Henderson seems great offensively, and good defensively, but the team numbers with him in against State are not very good. I have a hard time seeing Gerald as a detriment, or even less than top contributor.
Exiled

[ice-9]

Interesting analysis mus074! I didn't get to watch the game, but to those who did, did the combo of Singler and Paulus work well because they ran the pick and pop?

[Jumbo]

Interesting analysis mus074! I didn't get to watch the game, but to those who did, did the combo of Singler and Paulus work well because they ran the pick and pop?

In parts, yes. But Singler was very effective in the corner, and Paulus hit a couple of his threes from the wing.

[DukeDevil]

Jumbo, can you explain how these numbers are calculated? thanks!

[wumhenry]

It's interesting to me...I need to look at the patterns more, and also look at a season-to-date number. Because Henderson seems great offensively, and good defensively, but the team numbers with him in against State are not very good. I have a hard time seeing Gerald as a detriment, or even less than top contributor.
Exiled
On the season, Henderson's +/- per 40 minutes is better than any other starter's and also better than Scheyer's. So his low number for the NCS game is anomalous.

[mehmattski]

Using Jumbo's excellent work on who's on the floor for numbers of lineups and the net, I looked at just Paulus and Singler, including playing together. Paulus had a good night, but it was when Singler was out there too. Whether it was dependent on him or not is not for me to say.

Paulus was on the floor in 19 lineups, 14 of them with Singler. Singler was on the floor for 17, including the 14 with Paulus. There were only two lineups that did not include either. (Where a lineup was used multiple times, I used that multiple, resulting in 24 total lineups.)

When they were in the lineup together, the 14 lineups scored a net +23. Paulus without Singler, 5 lineups, was a net -1. Singler without Paulus, 3 lineups, a net +4. The two lineups without either... a net -6.

Clearly, they created a good combo on the night.

If I had to guess a reason for this, it would be because Singler sets some solid screens, some of the best on the team. A few of Paulus' plays were sprung by Singler screens, whether it was a JJ-like "roll off the screen to hit a 3" or creating a hole for a Paulus drive that ended in a layup or foul shots.

[mus074]

If I had to guess a reason for this, it would be because Singler sets some solid screens, some of the best on the team. A few of Paulus' plays were sprung by Singler screens, whether it was a JJ-like "roll off the screen to hit a 3" or creating a hole for a Paulus drive that ended in a layup or foul shots.

I think that could well be a factor. I also have to think that the perimeter is generally more open for Paulus to launch when our "big" is also out looking for a kick out to shoot a three, perhaps through a defensive hedge since I imagine most times Singler's big guarding him doesn't come all the way out. Moreover, a zone would clearly leave Paulus better looks when Singler is lurking at 19 feet. But I didn't notice enough of the defense NCSU was playing (zones, hedges, etc.) to say whether or not on that. Jumbo always sees these things though. Am I off here?

[CDu]

I think that could well be a factor. I also have to think that the perimeter is generally more open for Paulus to launch when our "big" is also out looking for a kick out to shoot a three, perhaps through a defensive hedge since I imagine most times Singler's big guarding him doesn't come all the way out. Moreover, a zone would clearly leave Paulus better looks when Singler is lurking at 19 feet. But I didn't notice enough of the defense NCSU was playing (zones, hedges, etc.) to say whether or not on that. Jumbo always sees these things though. Am I off here?

Most of Paulus' threes came off the high pick by either Singler or King (usually Singler). In those cases, Paulus got a wide open look, because the NCSU big didn't switch over to contest the shoot. Paulus also hit a transition three in three very early (at 5-4 to make it 8-4, I believe). He may also have had a three due to ball rotation after a cut and kick play, but I can't remember for sure.

[mus074]

Most of Paulus' threes came off the high pick by either Singler or King (usually Singler). In those cases, Paulus got a wide open look, because the NCSU big didn't switch over to contest the shoot. Paulus also hit a transition three in three very early (at 5-4 to make it 8-4, I believe). He may also have had a three due to ball rotation after a cut and kick play, but I can't remember for sure.

Thanks!

[Jumbo]

Thanks!

In addition to CDu's points, State went zone early in the second half. Paulus immediately knocked down a three (I think there was a ball-screen, though). We didn't see that zone again.

He definitely hit one from the right wing/corner. Can't remember if he hit another.

[mehmattski]

In addition to CDu's points, State went zone early in the second half. Paulus immediately knocked down a three (I think there was a ball-screen, though). We didn't see that zone again.

He definitely hit one from the right wing/corner. Can't remember if he hit another.

Yes, according to the CBS Sportsline Shot Chart (http://www.sportsline.com/collegebasketball/gamecenter/live/NCAAB_20080131_NCST@DUKE), Paulus did have one three from the corner. He also had a number of shots from the same spot. In addition to the threes, I think the very long two-pointer he had in the first half was also a Singler/King high screen.

[Jumbo]

Jumbo, can you explain how these numbers are calculated? thanks!

Here (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showpost.php?p=91481&postcount=55)you go!

[ice-9]

Singler-Paulus sounds reminiscent of Battier-Williams, except Paulus is likely a better shooter than Williams but not as strong going inside. Sweet!

[CDu]

Singler-Paulus sounds reminiscent of Battier-Williams, except Paulus is likely a better shooter than Williams but not as strong going inside. Sweet!

Eh, not so much for me, unless I'm misinterpreting your comparison. Battier was a superior defender to Singler and a better outside shooter. Williams was better than Paulus in pretty much every facet except shooting.

You're talking about a 3-time defensive player of the year and national player of the year and a two-time national player of the year. Singler is a talented freshman and Paulus is a decent junior. I just don't see the comparison.

[ice-9]

Oh no, I was not comparing them as players, but more as a tandem. I.e. Battier sets the pick at the top of the key, Williams then either shoots the 3-pointer, drives to the hoop, or passes to a rolling/popping Battier. It seems like Singler and Paulus can be used a similar way...I've seen it a few times and always wondered why they didn't go for it more often. When I saw mus074's analysis I thought perhaps that was something they finally utilized repeatedly in a game.

[Cameron]

Singler-Paulus sounds reminiscent of Battier-Williams, except Paulus is likely a better shooter than Williams but not as strong going inside. Sweet!


Greg is a great three-point shooter but don't joke around. Jason Williams was flat out a better long ball shooter. Their percentages are not that much different, but Jason could extend the defense out to 30 feet any time he touched the ball. He was deadly from anywhere across the timeline.

[ice-9]

The confidence you used to state your assertion made me curious what the actual percentages were, so I looked it up. In terms of 3-point shooting (which is what I had meant):

Jason Williams:
Freshman - 73/206 = 25%
Sophomore - 132/309 = 43%
Junior - 108/282 = 38%

Greg Paulus:
Freshman - 22/70 = 31%
Sophomore - 68/151 = 45%
Junior (thus far) - 41/97 = 42%

Williams took far more 3-pointers than Paulus did, so we can assume Williams' percentages would be higher if he had shot a lower volume. That aside however, based on the stats above, Paulus seems significantly more accurate especially when comparing the junior years. 4% is a lot! It is interesting to see that Williams was so much more accurate as a sophomore than as a junior. My guess is that those Battier screens made a huge difference.

I am not saying that Paulus should be shooting more 3s. This team doesn't need him to...he's really more like the 3rd or 4th offensive option on any given lineup unlike Williams who was always the 1st option. I remember Williams as an amazing shooter, but also a streaky one. (For the record, Williams along with Battier are my favorite Duke players of all time, so please don't take this post to mean that I am hating on the guy.)