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gw67
03-13-2007, 09:23 AM
Every year, I enter two brackets in our office pool. One is based on my best judgment (guess!) while the other is based on the teams that I would like to win (ACC teams, GWU, local teams like Georgetown, Gonzaga and a few others). I generally do poorly on both although I can usually count on the ACC teams doing well in the early rounds. This year the ACC has seven teams in the tournament and although they are all fine teams, I am not sure many will survive beyond the first weekend. My brief thoughts on the 1st round games are as follows:

Duke – VCU VCU is small, quick and a good shooting team. They start three guards and protect the ball well but their number of assists per game is not that high leading me to conclude that they have a lot of one-on-one in their game. The brief highlights I have seen showed their guards stealing the ball off the opposition dribble. Based on the quickness and size of VCU, I expect the Devils to play four guards for some of the game with Henderson playing forward. The keys for the Devils, IMO, will be for the guards and wing players to value the ball (dribble less and pass more?) and for the big men to take advantage of their size/skill advantage. I expect the Devils to win but VCU is the type of team that should keep the game close.

UNC – Eastern Kentucky The Heels should win easily but Hansbrough needs to get back to his normal playing level for them to go far in the tournament.

Virginia – Albany Albany is a typical mid-major in that they shoot well and are not big (although larger than VCU). Under normal circumstances, a #4 seed would be expected to run them off the court but Virginia is not your typical 4 seed. By almost any rating system (RPI 55), they don’t deserve a 4 seed. They are a terrific team on their home court but have been less than stellar on the road and at neutral sites. They rely on their excellent backcourt for scoring and much will depend on their combined performance. I will not be surprised if the Hoos don’t survive the first weekend.

Maryland – Davidson Davidson is a young team that relies on the three-point shot (about 26 per game). They are well coached and should be a handful for the Terps. The keys will be how well Davidson shoots the threes and whether Strawberry and Ibekwe play well. If the Terps win this game, I expect them to reach the Sweet Sixteen but if the play like they did in games against Miami, Notre Dame and Virginia, they will go home early.

Virginia Tech - Illinois Illinois is big and a good rebounding and defensive team; however, they can’t shoot straight. I expect a low scoring, ugly game. If Tech can keep them off the offensive boards then they have a chance to advance. At times, Tech looks unbeatable but they have lost to several inferior opponents and Illinois is better than most of them. I expect Illinois to win this one.

BC – Texas Tech I’ve not seen Tech play but I expect that they are well coached. They are also an excellent three-point shooting team. At one point during the season they lost five straight games and they were run off the court by Kansas State in their tournament. I think Skinner will have Dudley and Rice ready to play but, IMO, it is 50-50 whether they advance.

Georgia Tech – UNLV UNLV is not the Running Rebels of the early 90’s but they are 28-6 and beat out BYU and Air Force in the MWC. They are small, quick and take care of the ball. It is not very often that a 10 seed boasts two, NBA first rounders but Tech has a lot of talent on their team. IMO, Tech has underachieved this year and they probably feel that the tournament offers them a second chance. It will be interesting whether they can take advantage. I expect a close game with Tech advancing.

gw67

Troublemaker
03-13-2007, 10:28 AM
Nice writeup, gw. I expect the ACC to go 5-2 in the first round with BC and GaTech losing. I would love to see 7-0, though, and think it's possible. I especially want BC to win because they'd be easy pickings for Georgetown in the next round. Georgetown advancing is very important to me until UNC loses.

CMS2478
03-13-2007, 10:31 AM
I prefer to see the ACC go 6-1.............GO EASTERN KENTUCKY.............did I mention they are now my second favorite team (at least through the first round.) ;)

elvis14
03-13-2007, 10:37 AM
Every year, I enter two brackets in our office pool. One is based on my best judgment (guess!) while the other is based on the teams that I would like to win (ACC teams, GWU, local teams like Georgetown, Gonzaga and a few others). I generally do poorly on both although I can usually count on the ACC teams doing well in the early rounds.

Interesting, I pretty much do the same thing. One bracket with my head, the other with my heart. Duke always wins on my heart bracket....although even I will have a hard time picking them this year. I appreciate the analysis. As much as I'm all about beating the ACC teams in the regular season, my ACC pride kicks in right now and I want to see all 7 of these teams win (OK, lets say 6/7 GTHC).

I was looking at the second round as well to see what are chances of getting teams into the sweet 16 look like. Here are some thoughts:

Maryland - I expect Maryland to come out and try to prove that their 1st round exit from the ACC tournament was a fluke. Plus Maryland has Butler or ODU in the second round so I think they should be a good pick to make the sweet 16.

Georgia Tech - I'd like to see GT play at the level they are capable because they could but they are going to have a tough time getting past Wisconsin in the second round.

Virginia Tech - They get Southern Ill or Holy Cross in the second round. I don't know anything about either team, SI is from the MVC and Holy Cross is from the Patriot League. If you are a VT fan, I'm guessing you like this draw.

Boston College - They have Texas Tech and then Georgetown (who is playing much better than when we played them). I don't like BC's chances of making the sweet 16.

Virginia - UVA has Albany and then probably Tenn. I think they are going to have trouble getting past Tenn.

Carowina - They will get either Michigan State or Marquette in the second round. I'd love to see Marquette win this game. UNC's chances are pretty good to make the SS.

Duke - We are making the sweet sixteen. Period.

I'm really looking forward to the start of his tournament and hope that Duke comes out and plays well. Funny thing about UNC, for an ACC fan like myself who likes when the ACC plays this tournament well and proves we are the best, it looks like we almost need UNC to win a few games to make us look good. I really hate feeling like I should be rooting for UNC because I just can't.

Elvis

JBDuke
03-13-2007, 11:15 AM
I think UVA goes down in the first round to Albany. UVA is horrible outside of Charlottesville, with a 3-9 record at away or neutral sites vs. Div I competition. Those wins were at NC State (no Atsur), at Clemson, and at Maryland (their one really good road win). Losses include at Purdue, at App St., at Miami, and Utah in Puerto Rico. They closed the regular season with a loss at Wake, and then lost in the first round of the ACC Tourney to State.

Albany is a veteran team, with 2 seniors and 3 juniors leading their scoring. This is the team that gave UCONN fits in last year's tourney. And they beat Utah. In Salt Lake City.

On top of all that, I understand Reynolds is ailing with a hip problem that limits him. He's 9-44 in their last 3 games.

If Reynolds is in fact limited, Singletary can't do it all - even against a 13 seed like Albany. Unless Diane and Joseph both step it up, or unless Reynolds is fully recovered, look for the Hoos to make an early exit.

feldspar
03-13-2007, 11:44 AM
And they beat Utah. In Salt Lake City.

To be fair, with this year's Ute squad, that's not really saying all that much. They went 11-19 with an RPI of 140 this year. And Albany only beat them by 1. And then turned around and lost to Utah Valley - only in it's second or third year as a DI school.

I'm not buying the hype on the Great Danes. They only played one Top 25 team (Connecticut) back when UConn was actually ranked, and still lost to them.

Same reason why I'm not buying the hype on Davidson, either.

JBDuke
03-13-2007, 12:12 PM
To be fair, with this year's Ute squad, that's not really saying all that much. They went 11-19 with an RPI of 140 this year. And Albany only beat them by 1. And then turned around and lost to Utah Valley - only in it's second or third year as a DI school.

I'm not buying the hype on the Great Danes. They only played one Top 25 team (Connecticut) back when UConn was actually ranked, and still lost to them.

Same reason why I'm not buying the hype on Davidson, either.

My point in mentioning Albany's victory over Utah was to compare them to UVA, who lost to Utah in Puerto Rico. I was not suggesting that a win over Utah was something to hang your hat on.

feldspar
03-13-2007, 12:21 PM
My point in mentioning Albany's victory over Utah was to compare them to UVA, who lost to Utah in Puerto Rico. I was not suggesting that a win over Utah was something to hang your hat on.

Fair enough. I'm just not enamored with Albany's schedule. While Virginia stumbled a lot in the beginning of the season, it says a lot to me (for the 1st round, at least) that they tied for 1st in the ACC.

Bob Green
03-13-2007, 04:22 PM
Great summary gw67. Thanks!

I desire for the ACC to go 7-0 in the first round because it is important for the repetition of the conference. A strong showing in the tournament will have a positive impact on our national repetition next year.

However, we go 6-1 in the first round with BC dropping their game to TTU. In the second round, we go 4-2 with VT losing to SIU and Virginia losing to Tennessee.

So I have four ACC schools making it to the Sweet 16: Duke, UNC, GT, & Maryland.

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan