Henderson and the NBA

[houstondukie]

Just curious, but what is everyone's best "guess" on how many years Gerald stays at Duke. I've heard some people say they think he is a 4-yr player. Is this based on something he has said in the past or something his dad has said? I would love to see Gerald stay all 4 years and graduate from Duke (hopefully with a couple national championships) because he has the talent to be a NPOY and have #15 up in the rafters.

[jimsumner]

Duke expects Henderson to stay for at least three seasons.

[ugadevil]

Things like this are almost impossible to predict because you just never know. Some guys have a great season, but then decide to return because of a number of different reasons. Yet, some guys have a decent year but end up playing great in the tournament and then decide to go pro. Regardless of how many years he stays, I hope Gerald, his family, and the coaching staff are all in agreement about the best decision for him when he does to decide to go to the NBA.

[freedevil]

I think 3 years sounds reasonable. My only worry is that should he have an awesome March, and see his stock rise, that he jump too early and then waste away on some crappy NBA team's bench for a few years before he gets his footing.

I would wish him the best if he jumped after this year, I just think it's in his best interests to spend at least 3 years in college.

[dukelifer]

Even with a great March- which would mean Duke in the Final Four or better- he has much to work on. Three years sound right- plus he has a father who will have a lot to say about that decision.

[houstondukie]

Since we're on the topic, anyone expect Singler to stay for 3-4 years? He already has said he will be back next year.

[wilson]

Since we're on the topic, anyone expect Singler to stay for 3-4 years? He already has said he will be back next year.

I put the over/under on the length of Gerald's Duke career at 3.5. I think we can comfortably anticipate 3 years and hold out reasonable hope for 4. While his game is suited excellently for the NBA, I think he needs more consistency from his jump shot and perhaps a bit more muscle.
I expect Singler to stay at least as many years as Gerald. I think he needs more work on his shot and not quite as much muscle as Gerald. I don't think he'll be able to play as much of an inside/outside game in the League. He reminds me in a number of ways of Mike Dunleavy (with perhaps a heftier dose of athleticism). Remember, Dunleavy initially struggled in the NBA, even after staying for three seasons at Duke.

[jma4life]

My guess would be on three years. An amazing March this year in addition to Dunleavly like information that he is going to go lottery this year could put the odds of a third year a little lower but even then, I think there's a good chance he'd stay. Similarly, a very disappointing junior year could result in a fourth year and even then, he still could decide to leave after his junior year.

Ultimately, I would expect three years with small chances that he could leave after two or four years. That said, without getting into the kid's mind this is nothing more than speculation.

[CatfiveCane]

if Henderson has an awesome March (and April!) that would be good news for Duke. I rather use make the Final Four!

[pamtar]

Three years sound right- plus he has a father who will have a lot to say about that decision.

Plus, they're probably not hurting for money - the main attraction of the league.

[jimsumner]

"Plus, they're probably not hurting for money - the main attraction of the league."

True. But neither were the Dunleavys. The NBA has other attractions.

[freedevil]

"Plus, they're probably not hurting for money - the main attraction of the league."

True. But neither were the Dunleavys. The NBA has other attractions.

Completely agree.

[dukie8]

I put the over/under on the length of Gerald's Duke career at 3.5. I think we can comfortably anticipate 3 years and hold out reasonable hope for 4. While his game is suited excellently for the NBA, I think he needs more consistency from his jump shot and perhaps a bit more muscle.
I expect Singler to stay at least as many years as Gerald. I think he needs more work on his shot and not quite as much muscle as Gerald. I don't think he'll be able to play as much of an inside/outside game in the League. He reminds me in a number of ways of Mike Dunleavy (with perhaps a heftier dose of athleticism). Remember, Dunleavy initially struggled in the NBA, even after staying for three seasons at Duke.

how is he suited excellently for the nba? he's 6'4" so he is way too small to be a 3 and doesn't shoot the way a typical 2 does. i'd say his game is more suited excellently for college.

[MikeS]

He is athletic enough and has a great turn around jumper, but he really needs to work on his long range shot and 3 point shots. Foul shooting to, but that isn't a big issue in the draft.

[darthur]

how is he suited excellently for the nba? he's 6'4" so he is way too small to be a 3 and doesn't shoot the way a typical 2 does.

Really? I've been wrong in the past, but I think his game is very well suited to playing a 2 in the NBA. He needs to work on his range sure, but assuming good progress over the next year or two, I think NBA teams would be happy to take a gamble. His crazy pull-up jumper and his fantastic athleticism are the kinds of things that NBA teams drool over.

[zingit]

Before they came to college, I remember seeing an interview with Henderson and Ellington, and the interviewer asked them about the NBA, and Ellington said something along the lines of, "I can't promise anything; if you get an opportunity you want to take advantage of it," and Henderson said flat-out, "I want to stay four years and win some championships." Sure, plenty of players have said one thing and then done another, but still, it made me glad we got who we got, and UNC got who they got.

[Classof06]

I expect Gerald to stay for three years at least. There's no financial incentive to leave early and the kid is still getting better, admitting that there's a lot he needs to improve on. Most importantly, he genuinely seems to be enjoying his collegiate experience.

Do I think Gerald could get by in the NBA if he left early? Yes. With his athleticism, scouts would take Henderson whenever he decided to come out. He has what NBA scouts covet and that's the old "P" word: potential. I remember the performance Gerald had against Pitt and he his some NBA-difficulty shots that night. He still needs to improve from behind the arc but his mid-range game and ability to penetrate the defense are clearly there.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Gerald stay 4 years and I think both he and Duke would benefit greatly from that. Could you imagine Gerald as a senior? I personally think he could give a serious run at National Player of the Year his senior year.

[Troublemaker]

Gerald is shooting only 62% from the stripe and 31% from the arc and he has to improve his court vision. Don't get me wrong. I love his game and athletic wings in general but he's at least a year away.

[speedevil]

I would love to see henderson at duke for another 2 years. staying 4 years just isnt nessasary for him, unless he wants another shot for the championship. i say 3 years would be best for his development, ft shooting, ball handling, jump shot, defense can all use improvement, but he can get all the development in the nba against better competition. that being said, i would not be surprised if he declares for the nba draft after this year. he will be drafted in the first round and he will get paid, plus he can always get a duke degree later on.

[Acymetric]

Before they came to college, I remember seeing an interview with Henderson and Ellington, and the interviewer asked them about the NBA, and Ellington said something along the lines of, "I can't promise anything; if you get an opportunity you want to take advantage of it," and Henderson said flat-out, "I want to stay four years and win some championships." Sure, plenty of players have said one thing and then done another, but still, it made me glad we got who we got, and UNC got who they got.

He's also said something like that again this year, so he doesn't seem to have changed much in 1 and a half years.

"(I want to be remembered as) an explosive player. One of the best to ever play at Duke," Henderson said. "That was one of my goals coming here as a high school player — to be one of the best to ever play at Duke and leave my mark."

http://www.wral.com/sports/story/2321014/

I wouldn't say he's one of the best this year (I consider "the best" to be a pretty exclusive group). With some improvements he could really be great next year, but to achieve his current "one of the best" goal I'd say he has to stay 4 years. Which is separate from whether he needs 4 for the NBA (I say no) of course. My impression is almost that he knows he'll be good for the NBA, and he really wants to leave something behind in college. And based on the way his dad reacted to some missed free throws it seems like he would support (and possibly instilled) that desire.

[CMS2478]

Duke expects Henderson to stay for at least three seasons.

Is this something you have heard from the basketball program or just a guess?

Not questioning you....just asking.

[greybeard]

I see Gerald's understanding of the game, and his skills, improving in the next two years in ways that they will never in the pros. I also somehow think, guess, that he and his family see the value in continuing with a first class education and earning his degree. Unlike Dunleavy whose stock could only have gone down with a fourth year, I do not see how Gerald could possibly hurt his chances, absent a serious injury, by staying.

If he wants to max out on the rest of his life, he stays. If financial security is an issue (a serious injury and it could all slip away type of scenario), he will go after three if he has the kind of next season I expect. I think that he stays at least 3.

[MrBisonDevil]

how is he suited excellently for the nba? he's 6'4" so he is way too small to be a 3 and doesn't shoot the way a typical 2 does. i'd say his game is more suited excellently for college.

See Dwayne Wade.

[Clipsfan]

See Dwayne Wade.

Wade was also an assist machine at times in college, something which Gerald isn't at this point. He had a triple double in the tournament even, if I remember correctly. I'd love to see Gerald do that, but it is probably a ways off.

[MrBisonDevil]

Singler & Henderson, in my opinion, are a junior or senior NBA draft prospects. I briefly (unscientifically) looked at the top-10 picks of the past 5 NBA drafts (and a '08 speculative draft). Here is what I see:

Freshmen & Soph drafted in the top-10 were:
- Superstars on the college team from day one
- He was the clear cut team leader or he was an "athletic specimen" who put up huge numbers
- Mostly top-10 ranked as HS seniors who would have been lottery str8 from HS
(G Oden, M Conley, B Wright, Rudy Gay, Tyrus T)

Juniors drafted in the top-10 were:
- Good freshmen who took 2 seasons to became recognized superstars
- Team leaders
- Had a single superstar junior year season or tourney performance
(A Morrison, All of Florida, Okafor)

Seniors drafted in the top-10 were:
- Good players who stacked numbers to became reliable & consistent superstars
(Shelden, Foye, Frye, Araujo, Hinrich, Hibbert ('08))

[Classof06]

Much like the Pitt game, last night's Maryland game serves (to me) as an example of why I think Gerald can leave for the NBA now and get by. If he stays 3-4 years at Duke (which is what I expect), he'll go to the NBA and hit the ground running.

[dukerev]

I agree with Classof06 that Gerald could go to the L and "get by" now. However, I also have a sneaky suspicion that Coach K, Gerald and Gerald's dad have hopes and plans for Gerald to do more than "get by" and probably recognize that an additional year will make that more likely. BTW, who doesn't love seeing shots of Gerald's dad on TV? That dude is awesome! My wife and I chuckle every time they show him - it seems like he's always muttering to himself. We speculate that he's either talking (to himself, mind you), that he would have done it a little different/better or that he's willing Gerald to do better. While I certainly don't know what is going on in his mind, it sure looks like he's really rooting for Gerald to do well and have fun (and at the same time for Duke to do well and have fun). I guess I'm getting off topic a little here, but Gerald's dad is getting into Jason's mom and Duhon's brother territory for me as far as Duke player family members I've enjoyed watching.

[pamtar]

"Plus, they're probably not hurting for money - the main attraction of the league."

True. But neither were the Dunleavys. The NBA has other attractions.

Such as...?

[MrBisonDevil]

"Plus, they're probably not hurting for money - the main attraction of the league."

True. But neither were the Dunleavys. The NBA has other attractions.


Such as...?

Free admission to the Champagne Room.

[CDu]

Such as...?

Aside from the off-color answer by BisonDevil (which certainly may be a legit reason!), other attractions include:

1. Chasing a lifelong dream
2. Don't have to worry about classwork
3. Minimizing risk (injury in college can rob you of millions and your dreams)
4. Chance to play against the best competition

Of course, there are some downsides as well. But money isn't the only reason someone might jump to the NBA.

[houstondukie]

I agree with Classof06 that Gerald could go to the L and "get by" now. However, I also have a sneaky suspicion that Coach K, Gerald and Gerald's dad have hopes and plans for Gerald to do more than "get by" and probably recognize that an additional year will make that more likely. BTW, who doesn't love seeing shots of Gerald's dad on TV? That dude is awesome! My wife and I chuckle every time they show him - it seems like he's always muttering to himself. We speculate that he's either talking (to himself, mind you), that he would have done it a little different/better or that he's willing Gerald to do better. While I certainly don't know what is going on in his mind, it sure looks like he's really rooting for Gerald to do well and have fun (and at the same time for Duke to do well and have fun). I guess I'm getting off topic a little here, but Gerald's dad is getting into Jason's mom and Duhon's brother territory for me as far as Duke player family members I've enjoyed watching.

Add me to Gerald Sr. fan club. I have also noticed his "mutterings" and most of the time, if I'm reading his lips correctly, it is some sort of criticism of Gerald, especially with his FT shooting.

I recall in the Va. tech game, Gerald missed a free throw and when they showed Gerald Sr. his lips said something along the lines of "how can a player shoot well from the field but then be terrible from the free throw line." I'm sure he wasn't happy either when Gerald missed the front end of the 1 and 1 at the end of the Maryland game.

No doubt he has been a great influence on Gerald and a big reason he has improved so much from last yr. Keep it up Dad!

[Clipsfan]

Freshmen & Soph drafted in the top-10 were:
- Superstars on the college team from day one
- He was the clear cut team leader or he was an "athletic specimen" who put up huge numbers
- Mostly top-10 ranked as HS seniors who would have been lottery str8 from HS
(G Oden, M Conley, B Wright, Rudy Gay, Tyrus T)


I think Tyrus Thomas is a glaring example above. Either the comments about Tyrus Thomas' ranking in HS in the Czyz thread (saying he was only a 3-star recruit) or a comment calling him a lottery straight from HS are wrong. He wasn't a team leader, and while he's an athletic specimen I wouldn't call his numbers anywhere near huge. He is a lot rawer than Henderson, but was drafted on potential.

I think that there is always room in the top 10 for someone who shows a ton of potential, and Henderson has shown that. I like hearing that he's looking to enjoy the Duke experience and work on his game at Duke rather than ride the pine in the NBA as he works on it, but I don't think that means he wouldn't get a nice contract if he declared. He's made huge strides over the past year and I look forward to seeing him continue to make them while wearing the Duke uniform. If he chooses to declare, I'll wish him the best and root for him in the NBA.

[Jumbo]

I don't want to open a can of worms, but I also don't want everyone to be completely shocked if it happens -- there's a chance Gerald could be gone as early as this spring. I'm heartened by Jim's post, though.

[theasem]

Kyle's plan is to stay 3 years. I know this for a fact.

Gerald will definitely stay for at least one more year, he is not leaving after this year. Other than that, it is up in the air.

[freedevil]

I don't want to open a can of worms, but I also don't want everyone to be completely shocked if it happens -- there's a chance Gerald could be gone as early as this spring. I'm heartened by Jim's post, though.

There's nothing fun about this post.

[Jumbo]

Kyle's plan is to stay 3 years. I know this for a fact.

Gerald will definitely stay for at least one more year, he is not leaving after this year. Other than that, it is up in the air.

I'd ask where you got that, because it's not a fact. That said, from your lips to, errr, Kyle's and Gerald's ears.

[Ignatius07]

Even if they said that, it would not be a fact. Way too much can happen between now and the end of the tournament (for Henderson) and between now and the end of NEXT year's tournament (for Singler).

If Henderson leaves after this season - given how well the team is playing overall - it means we probably advanced fairly deep in the tourney. If he and D-Marc lead us to a Final Four or beyond, it'd be hard to argue with his decision. Still, let's try to continue to enjoy the season regardless of what he does. He did play great last night, but let's not forget that Henderson has not been remotely as consistent as Nelson thus far.

[BD80]

You have got to believe that G's decision will be one of the best informed decisions of any potential NBA draftee since Mike Dunleavy's. I personally don't anticipate the perfect storm that led to Dunleavy's early departure, particularly because there are 3 guys G's size that will probably go before him (Rose, Gordon and Mayo) and at least several big guys as well. He is a bit small for the 2 in the NBA, but I think he will have great success once he finds the right situation. None of the teams at the "top" of the draft seem to offer a compelling situation for G. If he blows up so much that he is a top five pick, that means that we will have a long post season, and thus cause for celebration. If he goes this year knowing he will go lower but to a team with the right situation, more power to him.

Can anyone explain why NBADraft.net does not list ANY of UNC's players or UA's Chase Budinger?

[theasem]

I'd ask where you got that, because it's not a fact. That said, from your lips to, errr, Kyle's and Gerald's ears.

Well I'm Singler's friend on FaceBook and he openly states that in his "About Me" section. And it is him because the other Duke players are friends with him, too. There's not much you can refute there if it comes out of his own mouth.

Gerald hasn't had a spectacular year, though it has been good, so I just don't see him jumping to the NBA. He has too many things to work on, particularly shooting and ball-handling, if he wants to make it to the league. As earlier posts said, he is enjoying the college experience. And money isn't an issue as his dad was in the NBA for a good amount of time. I would say with a pretty big deal of certainty, as would anyone else, that he will be back for his junior year.

I don't get the logic that if someone goes deep into the tourney, they will leave. I understand that their stock may be high and so will good publicity, but given a deep loss, wouldn't they want to come back and go deeper next year? That would be my way of thinking, I don't know.

[KandG]

I don't want to open a can of worms, but I also don't want everyone to be completely shocked if it happens -- there's a chance Gerald could be gone as early as this spring. I'm heartened by Jim's post, though.


Ugh, this makes me sad. Also a little surprised, only because Gerald seems like the classic "tweener". He obviously has incredible athleticism and continues to improve and impress, but I was under the impression that he's still a bit rough with both ballhandling and shooting, and could use another year before going to the big league. And he's 6'4".

I'm not one of those that would moralize about how bad this is for all parties involved -- if it's really what Gerald and his dad feel is most prudent, and there's strong interest from the NBA, then so be it. But I sure hope this doesn't come to pass.

[Jumbo]

Well I'm Singler's friend on FaceBook and he openly states that in his "About Me" section. And it is him because the other Duke players are friends with him, too. There's not much you can refute there if it comes out of his own mouth.

Gerald hasn't had a spectacular year, though it has been good, so I just don't see him jumping to the NBA. He has too many things to work on, particularly shooting and ball-handling, if he wants to make it to the league. As earlier posts said, he is enjoying the college experience. And money isn't an issue as his dad was in the NBA for a good amount of time. I would say with a pretty big deal of certainty, as would anyone else, that he will be back for his junior year.

I don't get the logic that if someone goes deep into the tourney, they will leave. I understand that their stock may be high and so will good publicity, but given a deep loss, wouldn't they want to come back and go deeper next year? That would be my way of thinking, I don't know.

OK. With all due respect, I don't put much stock in someone's Facebook profile. And even if he means that now, it doesn't mean he'll feel the same way down the road.
That said, I'm confident that Kyle will be at Duke next year, and hopeful that he'll stick around longer than that. I don't have as much of a read on G -- I think there's a good chance he'll stay, but I think he'll entertain the idea of leaving if his stock is high enough. I don't think Tourney performance will have much to do with it, unless it strongly enhances his stock (See: Conley, Mike)

[Jumbo]

Ugh, this makes me sad. Also a little surprised, only because Gerald seems like the classic "tweener". He obviously has incredible athleticism and continues to improve and impress, but I was under the impression that he's still a bit rough with both ballhandling and shooting, and could use another year before going to the big league. And he's 6'4".

I'm not one of those that would moralize about how bad this is for all parties involved -- if it's really what Gerald and his dad feel is most prudent, and there's strong interest from the NBA, then so be it. But I sure hope this doesn't come to pass.

I'm not saying he's going to leave. I'm just saying it's way too early to dismiss the possibility that he might.