Graduation figures for Duke not all good news...

[SeattleIrish]

http://www.bus.ucf.edu/sport/public/downloads/2007_Men's_Basketball_Tournament.pdf

Great graduation figures for Duke athletics as a whole, but Men's basketball was lower than I thought it would be (although higher than MANY other teams in the field.

thoughts?

s.i.

[MarkD83]

With 50% being the FGR (?) and 67% being the transfer corrected rate. I have to believe these statistics are basically telling us that Shavlik Randolph and Luol Deng went pro and Eric Boateng transfered. However, I am not sure about when Luol and Eric will be counted in this statistic.

[JasonEvans]

With 50% being the FGR (?) and 67% being the transfer corrected rate. I have to believe these statistics are basically telling us that Shavlik Randolph and Luol Deng went pro and Eric Boateng transfered. However, I am not sure about when Luol and Eric will be counted in this statistic.

To me the really significant thing is:

A- when a kid uses up his 4 years of elligibility and does not get a degree.
B- when a kid flunks out
C- when a kid graduates but we later hear that he cannot read or write

So long as you can avoid very much of A or B, I think you are doing fine. C is unforgiveable but does happen. All the evidence I have seen shows that Duke does excellent in all sports in avoiding all of these.

-Jason "someone needs to revise the college hoops numbers to reflect guys who leave early for the NBA" Evans

[Clipsfan]

With 50% being the FGR (?) and 67% being the transfer corrected rate. I have to believe these statistics are basically telling us that Shavlik Randolph and Luol Deng went pro and Eric Boateng transfered. However, I am not sure about when Luol and Eric will be counted in this statistic.

Actually, I think that the report refers to Avery and Maggette and Brand etc, as it covers from 96-97 through 99-00. Our basketball numbers will continue to look bad (and get worse) over the next couple of years as we enter the period where Duke players transferred and went pro early.

[Clipsfan]

Sorry for the confusion, I mean that it covers players who were freshmen from 96-97 through 99-00. They give the players 6 years to graduate, if I remember correctly, so there is always a slight lag.

[Exiled_Devil]

With 50% being the FGR (?) and 67% being the transfer corrected rate. I have to believe these statistics are basically telling us that Shavlik Randolph and Luol Deng went pro and Eric Boateng transfered. However, I am not sure about when Luol and Eric will be counted in this statistic.

Your comment made me wonder what timespan the study examined.

Here is what the study said--
The Institute reviewed 1999 – 00 graduation (six-year) rates, with a four class average (freshman classes of 1996 – 97, 1997 – 98, 1998 – 99, and 1999 – 00)

This means that this study has nothing to do with Deng and Shav. I guess they need to look at least 6 years back in order to calculate the Federal graduation rate, but the idea of looking at the classes that graduated 10 years ago and using them to assess a school right now seems flawed to me.

This timeframe includes the graduating classes of 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2003.
That gives us several transfers and early NBA entries.

I need to head to a meeting - can someone throw together a list of who we lost in that time frame? My impression has been we have had pretty dramatic change in our early entry rate in the last 6 years.

Exiled

[Zeke]

Does anyone know what the graduating players are majoring in these days. I think I heard that JJ majored in History which , a hundred years ago when I was an undergrad, was considered a respectable major. I remember once (maybe late 60's) there was a post player who had a 4.0 with a Physics major. I've quit hearing things like that these days.
I was impressed that Florida was graduating so many of there players. I had mentally consigned them to the less than desirable schools catagory.

[crimsondevil]

(freshman classes of 1996 – 97, 1997 – 98, 1998 – 99, and 1999 – 00)
I need to head to a meeting - can someone throw together a list of who we lost in that time frame? My impression has been we have had pretty dramatic change in our early entry rate in the last 6 years.

Off the top of my head, that would mean it includes Brand, Avery, Maggette, and Burgess, as well as Boozer and Dunleavy. J-Will left early but graduated, so he shouldn't count, and I'm assuming the others have not gotten a degree in the time limit (could be mistaken). Andre Sweet was the next year (00/01) I think. So that's quite a few, am I missing any?

It should be clear to anyone that NBA early entries really mess up the intent of this stat...

[crimsondevil]

Does anyone know what the graduating players are majoring in these days.

The example everyone always cites is Battier, who was a very good student and majored in Religion (or something like that).

[phaedrus]

horvath was a physics major.

[SeattleIrish]

I know the most common jibe is "3-year Sociology degree", but I honestly don't know what the most common major is.

I looked at the "major" basketball programs (subjective) and here are the ones that did better than us (67) for the GSR (Graduation Success Rate):
BC
Florida
Illinois
Indiana
Marquette
Michigan State (91!)
UNC
ND
Stanford
Vandy
Nova
UVA (85!)
Virginia Tech

Those that did worse:
Arizona
Ark.
Georgetown
G.T.
Kansas
Louisville
Maryland (18! I remember this being very low in last year's report as well)
Ohio St.
Oregon
Tennessee (18!)
Tx
UCLA
USC
Wisconsin

I guess I had anticipated us having a higher grad. rate than middle-of-the-pack. Many of those that did better than us also have to deal with folks going pro.

s.i.

[wiscodevil]

I know the most common jibe is "3-year Sociology degree", but I honestly don't know what the most common major is.

I looked at the "major" basketball programs (subjective) and here are the ones that did better than us (67) for the GSR (Graduation Success Rate):
BC
Florida
Illinois
Indiana
Marquette
Michigan State (91!)
UNC
ND
Stanford
Vandy
Nova
UVA (85!)
Virginia Tech

Those that did worse:
Arizona
Ark.
Georgetown
G.T.
Kansas
Louisville
Maryland (18! I remember this being very low in last year's report as well)
Ohio St.
Oregon
Tennessee (18!)
Tx
UCLA
USC
Wisconsin

I guess I had anticipated us having a higher grad. rate than middle-of-the-pack. Many of those that did better than us also have to deal with folks going pro.

s.i.

i agree with jason. All that really matters is if someone has been there 4-5 years did they graduate. If they left for the pros or graduated from another school after transferring, I don't see how that reflects negatively on a program. the number of players we're talking about creates such a small sample size that an early entry to the NBA or transfer here and there skew things ALOT.

[ikiru36]

An interesting article which I'd just been perusing yesterday draws from a few different sources to examine graduation rates. http://stanford.scout.com/2/618619.html

As for Duke, on the whole, I'm actually kind of impressed. While I'd love our numbers in basketball to be 100%, given the relatively low "n" in basketball as well as the fact that the ncaa numbers do not take into account most players who went pro early, our number is more understandable.

A few things I noted which jumped out at me which I'll share:
#1: On the whole, especially given the quality of their athletic programs, mad props to Florida, Notre Dame and Duke.
#2: Compared to some other conferences(SEC, Pac 10, Big Ten, ahem), the ACC does impressively uphold academic standards at many of its member schools.
2a-By this standard, Clemson and (surprisingly to me anyways) Maryland are pretty much a disgrace. Maryland's 18% rate in Basketball, for a team with relatively few players leaving early for the NBA, really calls for explanation. I am genuinely disappointed to see this, as for all my minor annoyances with Gary Williams, I assumed he was doing at least an average job of graduating his players.
#3: The stat which struck me as most important, and indicative of whether programs are making the extra effort to assure that each player receives academic opportunity, is the disparity between the graduation rates of caucasian vs. african-american athletes. In this regard, one could argue that Duke is the most impressive of all schools (perhaps this is worth sharing with some sportswriters out there). Duke graduates 98% of its caucasian athletes and 89% of its african-american athletes, a 9% disparity. While any notable disparity is of concern to me, let's compare with a few other major schools(all of which have very good academic reputations).
UNC 86%/66% 20 point disparity
Michigan 91%/64% 27 point disparity
Virginia 90%/63% 27 point disparity
Texas 81%/53% 28 point disparity

Just to give props and shame to the most surprising outliers to me,
Florida 94%/88% 6 point disparity (and 2 recent NCAA championships!)
Cal-Berkeley 78%/54% 24 point disparity (low overall and a big disparity, sad)
Arizona 76%/39% 37 point disparity

[crimsondevil]

i agree with jason. All that really matters is if someone has been there 4-5 years did they graduate. If they left for the pros or graduated from another school after transferring, I don't see how that reflects negatively on a program. the number of players we're talking about creates such a small sample size that an early entry to the NBA or transfer here and there skew things ALOT.

Yes, I agree. The question then becomes: Of the Duke players who didn't graduate, how many did not go pro early? Does anyone actually know the answer to this?

[Clipsfan]

I couldn't find much info on the players, only finding that Joe Pagliuca is majoring in Economics and minoring in Math. This isn't that surprising (the lack of info) given the youth of the team, as you don't need to declare anything until your Junior year. Nelson and McClure have probably declared, but most of the other regulars probably haven't.

[FishStick]

I remember seeing that Markie's major was Cultural Anthropology during a game earlier in the year - a very cool major (one of mine in fact). I haven't seen McClure's anywhere.

[SeattleIrish]

i agree with jason. All that really matters is if someone has been there 4-5 years did they graduate. If they left for the pros or graduated from another school after transferring, I don't see how that reflects negatively on a program. the number of players we're talking about creates such a small sample size that an early entry to the NBA or transfer here and there skew things ALOT.

The GSR (Graduate Success Rate) data that I shared, as opposed to the FGR (Federal Graduation Rate) actually takes that into account. Unlike the FGR, it does not "count against" a school if a player transfers out IN GOOD STANDING and than graduates from another school, and, unlike the FGR, it does count transfers IN who graduate.

s.i.

[ikiru36]

While player's "majors" have often been used as a means of questioning the individual's/school's academic "seriousness," I am loathe to use this as an overly meaningful indicator without knowing greater specifics.

One example might be when a school has athletes majoring in, say, Kinesiology. On an individual basis, I can easily imagine a given student-athlete having an understandable interest in this discipline, and taking it seriously academically. So long as it is a legitimate program(accredited/certified, as appropriate), and some non-athletes also consider coming to the school to major in the discipline, I'd be careful about making assumptions.

Also, different schools have varying focuses on Liberal Arts curriculum vs. being more vocationally oriented. If a school has significant core curriculum expectations, I am less concerned about the specific major. On the other hand, if an institution's general student body is more vocationally oriented (more frequent, I imagine, at agricultural or "State" labeled schools), then an athlete being similarly focused seems less problematic to me.

I guess that my bottom line is, are the student-athletes genuinely part of the student body? Do they attend (at least most of their) classes with non-athlete students? Once they choose a major, do they take upper level/seminar courses as well, as most majors would be expected to do? And finally, of course, are they graded equally with other students (allowing somewhat for taking into account their added schedule burdens).

Of course these things are more difficult to assess, perhaps. But in the meantime, graduating kids seems like a decent proxy measure. While I have no doubt that there may be some cheating to advance kids at many schools, if it were that easy then more schools wouldn't have such embarrassingly low graduation percentages. Seriously, dude, check out those graduation numbers from the SEC (other than Florida) and the Pac 10 (other than, primarily, Stanford). There is seriously something wrong if schools have greater than a, say, 25 point disparity between their graduation rates of Caucasian and African-American student athletes. I just want to know how Ohio State's football program can have respectability while graduating 85% of it's Caucasian football players while simultaneously only graduating 32% of its African-American players, regardless of what the players were majoring in.

[crimsondevil]

The GSR (Graduate Success Rate) data that I shared, as opposed to the FGR (Federal Graduation Rate) actually takes that into account. Unlike the FGR, it does not "count against" a school if a player transfers out IN GOOD STANDING and than graduates from another school, and, unlike the FGR, it does count transfers IN who graduate.

s.i.

Unfortunately for Duke, as has been pointed out, it doesn't account for NBA early entries.

[SeattleIrish]

Nor does it for any of these schools:

BC
Florida
Illinois
Indiana
Marquette
Michigan State (91!)
UNC
ND
Stanford
Vandy
Nova
UVA (85!)
Virginia Tech

Perhaps we had more jump ship during that time - I'm guessing someone might be able to dig that up after work (I'm in PST).

s.i.

[Zeke]

You know graduation rates is a pretty low threshold, but it does tell whether the emphasis of the program is W's vs student education. I love to see Duke win, but I'd like also to think that these are "real" students, not just a tryout camp/minor league for the NBA - there are enough of those already and I had hoped Duke was not one. It sounds as if nobody really knows what Duke's current status is. This could be Coach K's long term legacy - being able to produce competetive program made up of students.

[Clipsfan]

You know graduation rates is a pretty low threshold, but it does tell whether the emphasis of the program is W's vs student education. I love to see Duke win, but I'd like also to think that these are "real" students, not just a tryout camp/minor league for the NBA - there are enough of those already and I had hoped Duke was not one. It sounds as if nobody really knows what Duke's current status is. This could be Coach K's long term legacy - being able to produce competetive program made up of students.

I think that it is very hard for the top programs to produce high graduation rates in this environment. Duke was a bastion for a long time, but if we only recruited players who guaranteed that they would stay 4 years (or somehow pull of the 3 year program) the posts about our recruiting would be incredibly worse than they are at the moment. Just a couple months ago multiple posters were clamoring that our recruits aren't atheletic enough, or good enough, or developing quickly enough. Imagine how bad it would be if we never recruited guys who were good enough/wanted to go pro until they've completed school (or made it far enough and were dedicated enough to finish while trying to make a living).

[SeattleIrish]

I think that it is very hard for the top programs to produce high graduation rates in this environment. Duke was a bastion for a long time, but if we only recruited players who guaranteed that they would stay 4 years (or somehow pull of the 3 year program) the posts about our recruiting would be incredibly worse than they are at the moment. Just a couple months ago multiple posters were clamoring that our recruits aren't atheletic enough, or good enough, or developing quickly enough. Imagine how bad it would be if we never recruited guys who were good enough/wanted to go pro until they've completed school (or made it far enough and were dedicated enough to finish while trying to make a living).

Clips:

I don't think any (many?) folks are upset about players leaving to go pro early; I can't imagine asking anyone to turn down a couple million bucks. Speaking for myself, my concern is that those numbers aren't ALL from folks who went pro, but people who stayed and didn't complete their degree. In my mind, that's a failure of the institution.

Since no one has done it, I'll try to pull the names from each class and post them. I'll have to wait until my son goes to sleep (he's named "Durham", by the way) ;)

s.i.