Miami- North Carolina

[cameroncrazed23]

Who do you think is coming out with the win tonight? i know who i am rooting for.

[BlueDevilJay]

In my wildest dreams, the U would pull the upset tonight but I just don't see it happening, back to back losses. Of course, their soft OOC sched could continue to haunt them and work in Miami's favor. I'll be watching for sure. Go Canes!!

[sandinmyshoes]

Isn't UNC's schedule rated as tougher than ours?

This is a road game in the ACC, so who knows, but like the others two UNC losses in a row seems unlikely. Since Williams has been there, they seem to typically come off of a loss with renewed vigor before gradually sliding back into a kind of neutral emotional state.

[BlueDevilJay]

Im not sure what the ratings are on the schedule, but I looked at ours vs theirs and we have played several ranked teams OOC, with UNC's only games vs ranked opposition coming in ACC play. Depending on what Miami and Clempsun do the rest of the season, UNC could finish the season having only played THREE games vs top 25 ranked teams. (1 vs Clemson, 2 vs Duke). Is that not plain crazy to anyone but me?

[gw67]

According to RPI and Sagarin, the Heels' strength of schedule (SOS) is higher than Duke's. In fact, the Devils' SOS in the RPI is the 6th strongest in the ACC behind Georgia Tech, UNC, Clemson, Florida State and Maryland.

gw67

[pfrduke]

According to RPI and Sagarin, the Heels' strength of schedule (SOS) is higher than Duke's. In fact, the Devils' SOS in the RPI is the 6th strongest in the ACC behind Georgia Tech, UNC, Clemson, Florida State and Maryland.

gw67

According to Pomeroy (http://www.kenpom.com/rate.php?s=SOSPythag), on the other hand, Duke's is 19th and UNC's is 34th. In non-con only, Duke's is 48th and UNC's is 89th. Duke ranks 3rd overall in the ACC, and 2nd in the ACC on the basis of non-con only. Duke got negative pub for not playing tough opponents, but Wisconsin, Pitt, and Marquette have all been better than projected. By contrast, UNC's marquee opponents (OSU, Kentucky) are worse than projected. Goes to show you can't really judge strength of schedule until after all the games have been played.

[gw67]

pfr - To each his own. I really enjoy looking at Pomeroy's stats which are based on how well teams play (The Terps are the 45th best team?). But, as we both know, the selection committee looks at RPI. I threw Sagarin in the mix because I see it as a slightly enhanced RPI. IMO, you are kidding yourself if you think that UNC has played a weak schedule and Duke a difficult one.

gw67

[sandinmyshoes]

Just to be clear, I'm not denigrating our schedule, which I think was pretty decent. But I think true road games for UNC is probably what gives them the edge over Duke. In just a team by team comparison I too think Duke's OOC schedule was somewhat tougher than UNC's. Although I think it is delusional to consider UNC as having played an "easy" schedule.

I also have to give UNC some credit for a very long series of games on the road. What was it, like seven or eight in a row on the road?

But, I don't want to derail this into a strength of schedule argument. I see UNC as probably winning this game and looking strong for at least a couple of more. Then we'll see if that disinterest creeps back into their game the way it often seems to do.

[Classof06]

Well put by sandinmyshoes. I think Duke's played better teams but UNC has played more true road games. I don't think UNC's schedule has been as hard as Duke's and it's illustrated by the fact that 3 of UNC's first 4 ACC games have been down-to-the-wire nailbiters. Duke's wins haven't been cakewalks but none has gone down to the last possession.

Miami's arena is going to be sold out tonight and the Canes seem to have a pretty big buzz here locally, so it'll be a pretty hostile environment for the 'Holes tonight. I still expect them to pull it out.

[Indoor66]

Well put by sandinmyshoes. I think Duke's played better teams but UNC has played more true road games. I don't think UNC's schedule has been as hard as Duke's and it's illustrated by the fact that 3 of UNC's first 4 ACC games have been down-to-the-wire nailbiters. Duke's wins haven't been cakewalks but none has gone down to the last possession.

Miami's arena is going to be sold out tonight and the Canes seem to have a pretty big buzz here locally, so it'll be a pretty hostile environment for the 'Holes tonight. I still expect them to pull it out.

I'll be watching the game on the Sun Channel at 9:00.

[juise]

What was it, like seven or eight in a row on the road?

UNC played 2 neutral court games (Old Dominion, BYU), followed by 4 away games (Ohio State, Kentucky, Penn, Rutgers). That's 4 times as many non-conference road games as Duke has played. But... how many of those games were against ranked opponents? (Answer: None.) Personally, I think that Duke's neutral court games against Marquette and Pitt were more valuable.

[sandinmyshoes]

UNC played 2 neutral court games (Old Dominion, BYU), followed by 4 away games (Ohio State, Kentucky, Penn, Rutgers). That's 4 times as many non-conference road games as Duke has played. But... how many of those games were against ranked opponents? (Answer: None.) Personally, I think that Duke's neutral court games against Marquette and Pitt were more valuable.


I think you could have a point, although it's worth noting that UNC's game against BYU, while on a neutral court was in BYU's time zone and something like three time zones from UNC's homecourt?

My point being that there's often more to what we might consider real strength of schedule than can be figured out by looking at names on a schedule or even road/home games.

For instance, it sometimes matter "when" you play a team. Never minding injuries, where they just not playing that well? Let's take UNC's loss to Maryland, what if the Terps go on a roll? All of a sudden that's a game against a tough team instead of struggling team. Maybe that's when Maryland woke up?

As stated by another poster, that's why SOS is more reliably looked at after the season rather than in the season, or heaven forbid before the games are played.

And, ultimately, we play UNC twice. That's what this is all about, isn't it? To make us feel better about our chances when we play them? Right now everyone is confident, but another loss by the Devils and panic will set in.

[JStuart]

And one of UNC's away games was Davidson in Charlotte...in the Coliseum, where the entire town of Davidson -faculty, stdents, and employees- could fit into, oh, 2-3 sections. The remaining seats were filled with those of the light blue persuasion. Some road game.

[gw67]

The game is at Miami and their squad is intact. Further, they have some big kids in the frontcourt who should make life interesting for Hansbrough. Nevertheless, I see the Heels pulling out a road victory.

gw67

[Olympic Fan]

And one of UNC's away games was Davidson in Charlotte...in the Coliseum, where the entire town of Davidson -faculty, stdents, and employees- could fit into, oh, 2-3 sections. The remaining seats were filled with those of the light blue persuasion. Some road game.

We can argue about the relative merits of the two road schedules, but for the record, the NCAA counts both the Duke-Davidson and UNC-Davidson games as home games for Davidson and road games for Duke and UNC. Jerry Palm, who runs an RPI site, documented his discussion with the NCAA about the two games and after some confusion, the NCAA made a firm ruling -- both home games for Davidson.

The Duke-Temple game is also "officially" a road game for Duke under NCAA rules, even though it was played in the Wachovia Center and not in the Owls on-campus arena. On the other hand, Pitt in New York and the three games in Maui are true neutral court games.

So for the record, Duke has officially played three road games (at Davidson, at Temple and at FSU), four neutral court games and nine home games going into back-to-back road games Thursday and Sunday at Virginia Tech and Maryland.

[dukestheheat]

the holes by about 20 points i do believe it.

dth.

[pfrduke]

pfr - To each his own. I really enjoy looking at Pomeroy's stats which are based on how well teams play (The Terps are the 45th best team?). But, as we both know, the selection committee looks at RPI. I threw Sagarin in the mix because I see it as a slightly enhanced RPI. IMO, you are kidding yourself if you think that UNC has played a weak schedule and Duke a difficult one.

gw67

I'm pretty sure his SOS doesn't take home/road/neutral into account, only who you play. And I never said I thought UNC played a weak schedule, only that Pomeroy rated it as lighter than Duke's. 34th means its in the top 10% of tough schedules, and that's with just 1 game against a ranked opponent (AP, Pomeroy, Sagarin, etc.).

That being said, I don't think the Heels played a tougher schedule than Duke. Marquette, Pittsburgh, and Wisconsin are better than any non-conference opponent UNC played. The Davidson games are a wash. The road games against Penn and Rutgers can only count for so much, because Penn and Rutgers are awful - Duke's Temple road game is better than either of those. UNC gets credit for going to Rupp and Columbus - those two games are better than any on Duke's schedule outside of the three above. And it played more quality mid-majors - the collection of Nevada, Kent St, UCSB, Asheville, BYU, and Valparaiso is better than Cornell, Albany, Eastern Kentucky, New Mexico State, and Princeton.

Duke's schedule is top-heavy, while UNC's is middle heavy. Duke played more "loseable" games in the non-conference schedule than UNC did, even if UNC's schedule seems to have more "solid" teams on it all-around.

Put another way, Duke had 3 games that were probably somewhere between 50/50 and 60/40 odds, plus Davidson at maybe 70/30 and Illinois at around 80/20. It then had 9 other games where the odds of winning were close to 100% (if you wanted to be generous, you could put Temple at between 90/10 and 95/5). UNC had 4 60/40 to 70/30 games (Kentucky, OSU, Davidson, and BYU), maybe 6 games where the odds of winning were somewhere between 90/10 and 95/5 (ODU, Kent St., Asheville, Valparaiso, UCSB, Nevada), and another 5 at close to 100% (Penn, Rutgers, Iona, SC St, Nicholls St). UNC's schedule might look better on paper because it has fewer of the 100% games, but Duke's is a little bit of a better test because it puts the team against better opponents at the top end. Again, not saying UNC's is weak - just not actually as strong as Duke's. But apparently I'm kidding myself...

[jjasper0729]

doesn't matter to me right now.. the REAL question is: do they have the hot tub ready?

[sandinmyshoes]

That "awful" Rutgers team just knocked off Nova by 12.

[Lavabe]

Miami trails by 7 at the half.

BEAT THOSE HOLES!!
Cheers,
Lavabe

[dukie8]

you guys who are dogging unc for its schedule need to remember that when unc put its schedule together it assumed it would play louisville in las vegas. louisville was preseason #6 and it's not unc's fault that they have had some caracter problems and lost to byu. kentucky also was preseason #20. those were supposed to be 2 ranked opponents that never came to be.

[pfrduke]

you guys who are dogging unc for its schedule need to remember that when unc put its schedule together it assumed it would play louisville in las vegas. louisville was preseason #6 and it's not unc's fault that they have had some caracter problems and lost to byu. kentucky also was preseason #20. those were supposed to be 2 ranked opponents that never came to be.

Which is why I said you can't really judge schedule strength until after games have been played. It's not UNC's fault that neither Kentucky nor OSU was as good as planned, or that Louisville laid an egg against BYU (although they haven't played like the #6 team all season). I'm not dogging them for their schedule - they've played a lot of pretty good teams, and not a lot of very bad teams. The only thing they were missing was a non-conference game against a top 10-20 opponent. Duke had 3. UNC may have thought they had 3 in OSU, Kentucky, and Louisville, but that turned out not to be the case.

[pfrduke]

That "awful" Rutgers team just knocked off Nova by 12.

And Gardner-Webb beat Kentucky. Rutgers lost its first five Big East games by an average of 19.6 points per game. They're still awful - now they're just awful with a good win under their belt.

[Patrick Yates]

Dear god can they score.

Ty Lawson tonight was fantastic. I would have to see a better PG than him to believe it, at least on the college level. This SOS is BS. We have to play the games on the court. It only really matters for seeding, and even then it doesn't really matter.

Right now, the way Kansas and Memphis are playing they are the top #1s. UNC, UCLA, Duke, whoever are the next group. Essentially, UNC will play the same, or approximate team in the NCAAs. Either they will be one of the strongest 2s playing the weakest ones, or UNC will be one of the weakest ones playing the strongest 2s. IT DOES NOT MATTER. Heck, it might be the same team either way that UNC has to face.

The games get played on the court, and UNC looks fantastic, on offense at least.

Lawson looks darn near unguardable. I love Nelson and Hendo, but they will have a war on their hands. If he is hitting from the outside, I personally don't see how to guard him. Our guys are great athletes, tis true, but Lawson has a gear our guys just don't posses. I am not knocking our guys. They are faster, or as fast as, better than 95% of the players out there, but Lawson is in the top 1%. Heck, he may be the top 1% all by his lonesome, speed wise.

And Hans looked good as well. Say what you will about him, he has some of the best hands I have ever seen. If he gets his hands on the ball, he generally does not lose it. And his body control is great. He uses his body well.

All in all, I don't really see any weak points when UNC has the ball. They look good.

Defense is another matter. Lawson only seems to use his speed on O. Hans patently refuses to play D. Anybody on this board could score on him. Hans would get 100, but he would not D up anybody. And he must be allergic to passing. Once he gets the ball near the lane, he is going up with it, no matter what. We must exploit this, somehow.

Duke can definitely score on UNC. But, stopping UNC will be the rub. I think we can slow them down enough for our own O to give us a chance. But, the UNC game will come down to who wins the UNC Offense vs Duke Defense struggle. If we can contain them enough, we can beat them. It will not be easy. But it is possible.

Patrick Yates

[jimmymax]

this just in from the unc-miami box -- hasbro now making as many free throws as the opponent attempts...

[sandinmyshoes]

And Gardner-Webb beat Kentucky. Rutgers lost its first five Big East games by an average of 19.6 points per game. They're still awful - now they're just awful with a good win under their belt.


A bit touchy there, aren't we?

I was only pointing out that an "awful" team beat the #18 ranked team. My point being that even awful teams can sometimes be dangerous on their own floor. Although, to be honest, I think Rutgers falls into the not very good category rather than being awful.

[CameronCrazie]

I am so sick of players standing straight up and down only to get a Tyler Hansbrough elbow to the jaw and foul call. I have seen many talented big men come through Carolina but Hansbrough is not one of them. He seems to have capitalized on the title of "hard worker" by convincing all the referees that his thrashing and flailing always leads to somebody fouling him. I saw at least three horrible foul calls in the Miami game tonight that came late when the refs realized that Hansbrough had missed due to contact. The problem here is that the defender had position each time and Hansbrough caused the contact. It just drives me crazy... especially with the constant "Duke gets all the calls" crying we always hear.

[sandinmyshoes]

UNC won that game going away without hitting many threes at all. But, I do think Miami isn't as good as people thought after their hot start (talk about soft schedules). The book on UNC still seems to clog the paint, get physical with their big men and hope they don't have a good night from the arc.

[sandinmyshoes]

I hate to say this, but I think Hansbrough actually gets fouled more than it gets called. It's insane the beating that kid takes but keeps on coming back for more. He's a tough player and I'd be glad to have him on my team any day. The complaining by fellow Duke fans reminds me of all the nonsense we had to endure about Shane or JJ.

[kydevil]

I hate to say this, but I think Hansbrough actually gets fouled more than it gets called. It's insane the beating that kid takes but keeps on coming back for more. He's a tough player and I'd be glad to have him on my team any day. The complaining by fellow Duke fans reminds me of all the nonsense we had to endure about Shane or JJ.

I must watch different Carolina games than you. He just "flails" his arms around and gets the call 90 % of the time.

[sandinmyshoes]

I don't figure my opinion on this will go over well here. :cool:

But I see defensive players hacking at him, or bodying up under him as he goes up for his shots. He's not afraid to move toward the defender because he's so good at changing hands in mid-air lessening the chance of getting it blocked.

I'm not saying that he doesn't get some fouls called that should not be, because he does. I'm saying that despite that I see many calls that could be made that are not.

But, that's enough defending of a UNC player for one night. :rolleyes:

[dukie8]

I hate to say this, but I think Hansbrough actually gets fouled more than it gets called. It's insane the beating that kid takes but keeps on coming back for more. He's a tough player and I'd be glad to have him on my team any day. The complaining by fellow Duke fans reminds me of all the nonsense we had to endure about Shane or JJ.

i completely agree. what's not to like about him? he's not the most gifted players in college, works his butt off, plays his butt off in games, never whines or shows up opponents, doesn't have an attitude problem, is going to win the npoy award, and never has any off-the-court issues so common in sports. if he were at duke, everyone on here would be slobbering all over him.

[A-Tex Devil]

Tyler plays like Shaq and it benefits him. He initiates contact but he also has to deal with a lot of contact others don't. He's certainly mastered the art of jumping into the person, though.

I'm still of the opinion that you gotta push him around early in a "non-flagrant" way and he'll backoff. See the Clemson game as an example. Eat a few fouls, jump into him before he jumps into you, just so he knows he won't be initiating the contact. Watch him back off. Seriously.

[Bob Green]

It just drives me crazy... especially with the constant "Duke gets all the calls" crying we always hear.

So to counter the "Duke gets all the calls" crying, you are crying that TH gets all the calls.

[Lotus000]

i completely agree. what's not to like about him? he's not the most gifted players in college, works his butt off, plays his butt off in games, never whines or shows up opponents, doesn't have an attitude problem, is going to win the npoy award, and never has any off-the-court issues so common in sports. if he were at duke, everyone on here would be slobbering all over him.

I dunno, I think Hans has a little bit of an attitude problem, and I've seen him whine to refs before, AND he definitely whined last year after he caught a 'bow to the face--but it was mainly people at UNC whining (fans).

...the real reason I posted--is there an UGLIER arena/court than Miami's? OOFH.

[Lavabe]

... two minutes with PATRICK DAVIDSON.

Nope ... it wouldn't be pretty. PATRICK DAVIDSON would drive Hans to the point of tears.:p

HEY WAIT A MINUTE ... we now have another Davidson on the team. You think?;)

Cheers,
Lavabe

[cbfx3]

...the real reason I posted--is there an UGLIER arena/court than Miami's? OOFH.


I went to the Duke/UM game down there last year... the "other" sights more than make up for the looks of the arena...

[JStuart]

I hate to say this, but I think Hansbrough actually gets fouled more than it gets called. It's insane the beating that kid takes but keeps on coming back for more. He's a tough player and I'd be glad to have him on my team any day. The complaining by fellow Duke fans reminds me of all the nonsense we had to endure about Shane or JJ.

I'm no official, but in my 50 years of watching ACC basketball (thank you, Jefferson Pilot), I have never seen a player so well-protected by the refs. Even as a freshman, when most big men get called for more fouls than when they've matured some, he rarely fouled out, and he seems to get all the touch fouls that usually get called in the perimeter. It may all be perception, but compared to all the greats in ACC, he surely plays as if he expects to get all the foul calls.
Has he ever fouled out?
JStuart, since Duke-Villanova, 1957

[gw67]

Before last night’s game, one would think that Miami had the goods to play UNC straight up. They had four big men that they could rotate on Hansbrough and tire him out, and they had a number of fast, quick perimeter players who could stay with Lawson. Further, they were a good shooting team who could put some offensive pressure on the Heels. Well, the Canes shot well from the field and foul line, they tried to rough up Hansbrough, and they ran three, possibly, four players at Lawson, and they got their teeth handed to them at home.

Lawson demonstrated in the first half why it takes more than just a series of quick players to stop him. Miami failed to pick him up early and when they did pick him up they played him too close. Lawson showed All American speed and strength and zipped by the Miami players on long dashes to the hoop. When guarded, he generated contact with his shoulder (like Nelson) and used his strength to get to the basket. I’m convinced that in the half court, you need to give him extra space and count on teammates to help. Lawson was also nearly flawless with the ball.

In the second half, Hansbrough came up big. The Canes ran with the Heels and during the second half some of their players, particularly their inside players, looked tired. Hansbrough was relentless and seemed to possess an extra gear when compared to the Miami big men. He also put forth his best JJ imitation at the foul line. He made 15-16 and like Redick, most of his shots had a nice arc and they hit the bottom of the net.

The Heels can be beaten but it will require a solid defensive effort (including rebounding) and good shooting.

gw67

[shadowfax336]

Tyler plays like Shaq and it benefits him. He initiates contact but he also has to deal with a lot of contact others don't. He's certainly mastered the art of jumping into the person, though..

Bingo

Its tough to officiate guys like this who look for contact. Because they are being fouled... They take a lot of beating... but there's nothing the defender can really do about it. Its not cheap, its just taking advantage of his size and playing with extreme passion. Trust me he takes a beating playing this way.

[yancem]

I'm no official, but in my 50 years of watching ACC basketball (thank you, Jefferson Pilot), I have never seen a player so well-protected by the refs. Even as a freshman, when most big men get called for more fouls than when they've matured some, he rarely fouled out, and he seems to get all the touch fouls that usually get called in the perimeter. It may all be perception, but compared to all the greats in ACC, he surely plays as if he expects to get all the foul calls.
Has he ever fouled out?
JStuart, since Duke-Villanova, 1957

I think you're on to some thing. To me it isn't that a foul is called whenever he has the ball, its more that fouls aren't called whenever the man he's guarding has the ball. I truly believe that he takes as much or more physical punishment as anyone in the college game, so if the refs give him the benefit of the doubt, I'm ok with that. But the reverse is also true, he dishes out more physical punishment than anyone in the college game yet he rarely seems to get a foul called on him. It's kind of like having your cake and eating it too.

[yancem]

Bingo

Its tough to officiate guys like this who look for contact. Because they are being fouled... They take a lot of beating... but there's nothing the defender can really do about it. Its not cheap, its just taking advantage of his size and playing with extreme passion. Trust me he takes a beating playing this way.

Danny Ferry used to also draw a lot of fouls by initiating contact. If you are good and know how to position your body, you can almost force the refs to blow their whistle.

[Patrick Yates]

Hans may or may not get unwarranted fouls. The fouls are called, and I doubt that will change any time soon.

What cannot be disputed is that he has great body control, great hands. and is a good overall player.

Once he gets the ball, something positive for UNC usually happens. You have to front Hans, and deny him the ball. I don't know who can do that for us, but you have to limit his touches. And when he does get, the rest of the team needs to collapse on him, cause he won't pass, and might jack up a bad shot.

Though it is an anathema to this team, who ever is guarding Hans cannot help on D. Stay with Hans, regardless, to deny the late pass on penetration.

Hans will still score, and probably hit close to his season average, but we have to make him inefficient. If he has to take lots of shots to get there, it might hurt the overall team effort, and UNC can be beat.

Patrick Yates

[Classof06]

Danny Ferry used to also draw a lot of fouls by initiating contact. If you are good and know how to position your body, you can almost force the refs to blow their whistle.

I agree with Yancem. I think it's a combination of both. Hansbrough gets better post position than any college player I can remember. My senior year on senior night, I sat 2 rows behind the basket in CIS and watched him give Shelden (a senior) all he could handle as a freshman. And a lot of Hansbrough's success was due to excellent positioning in the half court and the fact that he runs extremely well for a big man in transition.

But anyone who really knows the game also sees that Hansbrough gets a ridiculous amount of fouls called. He gets breathed on and it's two shots, no questions asked. Every UNC game I've watched I can't remember how many times TH gets to the line and I'm still saying "where's the foul?" to myself in my living room. McRoberts, a pretty decent college post defender, averaged 2.5 personal fouls a game last year; he averaged 4.5 in 2 games against UNC.

Like Patrick said, it ain't gonna change anytime soon. But it's pretty awful.

[Troublemaker]

Though it is an anathema to this team, who ever is guarding Hans cannot help on D. Stay with Hans, regardless, to deny the late pass on penetration.


...and give up the layup to Lawson, Ellington, whoever. Help defense is fundamental; you stop the ball first when the ballhandler has a clear path.

I do agree that Duke will front Hansbrough and I thought Thomas did a good job with fronting/denying against Clemson.

[bhd28]

I agree with Yancem. I think it's a combination of both. Hansbrough gets better post position than any college player I can remember. My senior year on senior night, I sat 2 rows behind the basket in CIS and watched him give Shelden (a senior) all he could handle as a freshman.

Yes, he was a freshman, but recall... Hansbrough did go to elementary school with Shelden's uncle. He was just held back 17 times.

[Indoor66]

Yes, he was a freshman, but recall... Hansbrough did go to elementary school with Shelden's uncle. He was just held back 17 times.

Hansblahblah needs to go to the league soon or he will be considered too old. :D

[sandinmyshoes]

And Gardner-Webb beat Kentucky. Rutgers lost its first five Big East games by an average of 19.6 points per game. They're still awful - now they're just awful with a good win under their belt.


Well then, now "awful" Rutgers has TWO good wins, having knocked off #17 Pittsburgh by 14 at Pittsburgh today.





Sorry, couldn't resist. :)