we are #3

[dukie8]

http://sports-ak.espn.go.com/ncb/rankings

[dukie8]

and lunardi has us as a 2 with tennessee as the 1:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

[kramerbr]

I was curious, what was Duke's highest ranking last year. I remember them starting off pretty hot and was thinking they were ranked as high as #5-#6 before the losing streak?

Can anyone refresh my memory?

[jzp5079]

Seeing us above North Carolina makes for a satisfying afternoon

[CDu]

and lunardi has us as a 2 with tennessee as the 1:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

As it should be (for now). Lunardi doesn't speculate on the actual skill of the teams. He bases it solely on performance to date, and Tennessee's resume is currently better. They have the top RPI and the #4 strength of schedule, and they have wins over four teams in the RPI top 25 and seven top-50 teams. Comparatively, we have the #6 RPI and #59 strength of schedule, with just four wins against the RPI top 50.

All that said, Lunardi's bracket right now is meaningless. There's the entire conference schedule still to play. Anything could happen from here on out. I suspect we'll wind up a #2 seed this year.

[dukeENG2003]

Can someone explain to me HOW UNC is ranked ahead of the Vols? Tenn is #1 RPI, has played 4 ranked teams (to UNC's 1). They both have one loss, UNC's at home to a sub 100 RPI team, while Tennessee lost AT Texas. WTF?

[SilkyJ]

Can someone explain to me HOW UNC is ranked ahead of the Vols? Tenn is #1 RPI, has played 4 ranked teams (to UNC's 1). They both have one loss, UNC's at home to a sub 100 RPI team, while Tennessee lost AT Texas. WTF?

i agree that unc should be ranked below tennessee based on those #'s but the rankings are subjective and so its based on who you think is a better team even if some of the #'s disagree...personally, I think UNC is a better team then Tennessee...which is actually saying a lot cause i'm very bullish on tennessee

[MikeS]

Can someone explain to me HOW UNC is ranked ahead of the Vols? Tenn is #1 RPI, has played 4 ranked teams (to UNC's 1). They both have one loss, UNC's at home to a sub 100 RPI team, while Tennessee lost AT Texas. WTF?

B/c they are named "North Carolina" and Tennesse is just Tennessee good thing for us however if we were Tennesse and Tennesse was "Duke" they would be ranked 3rd not us.

[DoubleDuke Dad]

Not only are we #3 and UNC is #4 but even more apropos their point total is 666!

[tbyers11]

As it should be (for now). Lunardi doesn't speculate on the actual skill of the teams. He bases it solely on performance to date, and Tennessee's resume is currently better. They have the top RPI and the #4 strength of schedule, and they have wins over four teams in the RPI top 25 and seven top-50 teams. Comparatively, we have the #6 RPI and #59 strength of schedule, with just four wins against the RPI top 50.

All that said, Lunardi's bracket right now is meaningless. There's the entire conference schedule still to play. Anything could happen from here on out. I suspect we'll wind up a #2 seed this year.

I don't really have a quibble with UT as #1 with us as #2 because 1) it is the middle of January and 2) the RPI numbers back it up.

However, the Sagarin (http://www.kiva.net/~jsagarin/sports/cbsend.htm), Pomeroy (http://kenpom.com/rate.php) and Basketball State (http://www.bbstate.com/) ratings all have us in front of Tennessee.

The Massey compilation ratings (http://www.masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm) also have us in front of Tennessee and will have us in front of UNC when they update for this week's polls.

I guess the point that I am trying to make is that with the huge increase of sabermetric data out there does the Selection Committee solely use the RPI, IMO the most flawed metric, in their decision-making process.

[CDu]

I don't really have a quibble with UT as #1 with us as #2 because 1) it is the middle of January and 2) the RPI numbers back it up.

However, the Sagarin (http://www.kiva.net/~jsagarin/sports/cbsend.htm), Pomeroy (http://kenpom.com/rate.php) and Basketball State (http://www.bbstate.com/) ratings all have us in front of Tennessee.

The Massey compilation ratings (http://www.masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm) also have us in front of Tennessee and will have us in front of UNC when they update for this week's polls.

I guess the point that I am trying to make is that with the huge increase of sabermetric data out there does the Selection Committee solely use the RPI, IMO the most flawed metric, in their decision-making process.

Yeah, I was just explaining why Lunardi ranked Tennessee where he did. I agree that the selection-committee probably doesn't use the most appropriate measures to select teams.

Ultimately, I don't see Tennessee being a #1 seed come tournament time (probably a #2 like us), so it really doesn't matter.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Not only are we #3 and UNC is #4 but even more apropos their point total is 666!

Nice first post, DDDad! Welcome to the boards!

3. Duke 15-1 682
4. North Carolina 18-1 666

[DoubleDuke Dad]

Thanks, OZZIE4DUKE. Given the results of the games this weekend and the new rankings, I am sure that our UNC “friends” are feeling a little bedeviled.

[grossbus]

"Not only are we #3 and UNC is #4 but even more apropos their point total is 666!"

LOL

i love it. GTHC

[Olympic Fan]

I guess the point that I am trying to make is that with the huge increase of sabermetric data out there does the Selection Committee solely use the RPI, IMO the most flawed metric, in their decision-making process.

As a matter of fact, the selection committee DOES consider several ranking systems beyond RPI. They have access to Sagarin, Pomeroy and several others. How much weight they give to each of of those, I can't tell you -- but I know that they are awash in information. If you can find it on the net, they have it.

FWIW, RPI-guru Jerry Palm has made it clear that the two major polls (AP and ESPN/USA TODAY) are the best predictors of NCAA Tournament seed -- better than RPI or any other ranking system.

So if you have two teams at the end of the year -- one ranked No. 2 with a No. 10 RPI and one ranked No. 6 with a No. 2 RPI -- the odds are good that the first team would get a higher seed.

[tbyers11]

As a matter of fact, the selection committee DOES consider several ranking systems beyond RPI. They have access to Sagarin, Pomeroy and several others. How much weight they give to each of of those, I can't tell you -- but I know that they are awash in information. If you can find it on the net, they have it.

FWIW, RPI-guru Jerry Palm has made it clear that the two major polls (AP and ESPN/USA TODAY) are the best predictors of NCAA Tournament seed -- better than RPI or any other ranking system.

So if you have two teams at the end of the year -- one ranked No. 2 with a No. 10 RPI and one ranked No. 6 with a No. 2 RPI -- the odds are good that the first team would get a higher seed.

Thanks for the info. I'm glad that the committee is using all of the info available to them.

[DukePA]

Thanks, OZZIE4DUKE. Given the results of the games this weekend and the new rankings, I am sure that our UNC “friends” are feeling a little bedeviled.

I love it!!! I know more than a few of my co-workers are bumming today. I didn't rub it in, but I sure wanted to :) Welcome to the best site on the web.

Donna

[rsvman]

FWIW, RPI-guru Jerry Palm has made it clear that the two major polls (AP and ESPN/USA TODAY) are the best predictors of NCAA Tournament seed -- better than RPI or any other ranking system.


Interesting, but to me the question of how well they predict the tournament seed is less important than the question of how they predict the tournament OUTCOME.

Over the past two years, I have filled out three brackets. In one I use the RPI exclusively, in one I use the Sagarin exclusively, and on the third I make my own picks based mostly on gestalt/watching a lot of basketball games/etc. My picks have been better than either Sagarin or the RPI in both years; Sagarin has finished second and the RPI a distant third. My 10-year-old can outpick the RPI. Just FYI.

[mr. synellinden]

I know how silly these projections are this early in the season, but it at least made me think that being #2 in the east - with a Raleigh - Charlotte track, and with UT as the #1 seed would be an outstanding draw for Duke. If someone offered that to me today, I'd take it in a second.

I think the real advantage of being ahead of UNC is that it increases the likelihood that we will be in the "Charlotte/East" Region versus UNC being in that region. Again, it's way to early to be speculating on that stuff but not having to leave the state of NC for the whole month of March (other than one game at UVA) would be a huge advantage.

[SilkyJ]

FWIW, RPI-guru Jerry Palm has made it clear that the two major polls (AP and ESPN/USA TODAY) are the best predictors of NCAA Tournament seed -- better than RPI or any other ranking system.

So if you have two teams at the end of the year -- one ranked No. 2 with a No. 10 RPI and one ranked No. 6 with a No. 2 RPI -- the odds are good that the first team would get a higher seed.

That definitely jives with what I remember for the last couple of years, outside of lousville two years ago getting a 4 seed when they were ranked in the top 5 or 10.

I guess the selection committee figures that people who watch the games and see the teams play (the poll voters) know a little better than the computers. Certainly a combination of the two seems to be best way...of course figuring out the right combination of both, good luck...

[VaDukie]

I know how silly these projections are this early in the season, but it at least made me think that being #2 in the east - with a Raleigh - Charlotte track, and with UT as the #1 seed would be an outstanding draw for Duke. If someone offered that to me today, I'd take it in a second.

I think the real advantage of being ahead of UNC is that it increases the likelihood that we will be in the "Charlotte/East" Region versus UNC being in that region. Again, it's way to early to be speculating on that stuff but not having to leave the state of NC for the whole month of March (other than one game at UVA) would be a huge advantage.

Word of caution on staying in NC for the tournament: there are a lot of UNC grads with free time on their hands that love showing up to our tournament games and cheering against us, especially with this new pod system. I think the opening round in Raleigh would be much better than Charlotte (aka West Chapel Hill) but still not fantastic.

Minor quibble, but hey, isn't that what these boards are for? ;)

[jjasper0729]

i absolutely despise the pod system. it makes it so if you're winning your first/second round games, you can't see the potential opponents in the next two rounds. they should go back to the way it was in my opinion. not that it matters for much :)

[VaDukie]

i absolutely despise the pod system. it makes it so if you're winning your first/second round games, you can't see the potential opponents in the next two rounds. they should go back to the way it was in my opinion. not that it matters for much :)

I wholeheartedly agree. I can see the arguments in favor, but I remain nostalgic for the old system.

The one thing that I would completely go crazy over is if they re-seeded the Final Four or expand the tournament beyond 64/65.

[The1Bluedevil]

I agree UNC shouldn't be ahead of Tennessee but what about UCLA? UCLA has beaten Stanford on the road, Mich State neutral court (w/out Collison) and Wash State.

Most important point is Duke winning the ACC. If Duke wins the the ACC and splits with Carolina then Duke is looking at 4 home games.

13-3 wins it for sure
12-4 pushing it

[Classof06]

Word of caution on staying in NC for the tournament: there are a lot of UNC grads with free time on their hands that love showing up to our tournament games and cheering against us, especially with this new pod system. I think the opening round in Raleigh would be much better than Charlotte (aka West Chapel Hill) but still not fantastic.

Minor quibble, but hey, isn't that what these boards are for? ;)

I've maintained that Duke is on the list of about 8-10 teams with a realistic chance of winning it all. And, as I've said before, some teams on this list have better chances than others and I think Duke would be in the middle towards the bottom of this list given our deficiencies down low.

It's early, but if Duke was to land as a 2 seed in the East Regional and start in Raleigh, this would be the exact kind of break Duke would need to get to a Final Four this year. Not having to jump on a plane until the Final Four would be a huge advantage for this team. Not to mention, Duke's already played Davidson at Charlotte and would've played NC State at Raleigh by the time March rolls around, another subtle advantage for this team. Also, if Lunardi's current bracket holds up, who wouldn't want to see a Tennessee-Duke game in the Elite 8? That's a classic in the making. Seeing the two best pressure defense teams in America with that much at stake would be amazing.

Alas, we're far away from a scenario like this. But it doesn't hurt to hypothesize :D

[Wander]

Also, if Lunardi's current bracket holds up, who wouldn't want to see a Tennessee-Duke game in the Elite 8?

I saw that too. First team to 120 points wins!

[JStuart]

Word of caution on staying in NC for the tournament: there are a lot of UNC grads with free time on their hands that love showing up to our tournament games and cheering against us, especially with this new pod system. I think the opening round in Raleigh would be much better than Charlotte (aka West Chapel Hill) but still not fantastic.

Minor quibble, but hey, isn't that what these boards are for? ;)

Yeah, but if UNC were in those two pods, the light blue fans would give Roy a super boost. If we could arrange for UNC to be sent elsewhere, then it would disappoint Heel fans immensely. Remember 1994, when UNC had virtually bought out Charlotte's hotel space for the final four, only to see UNC lose early, and Duke beat Purdue to arrive in Charlotte, and come darn close to beating Arkansas in the finals? They had expected that final four, and the disappointment was palpable from Chapel Hill all the way over here in Durham.

[SilkyJ]

Most important point is Duke winning the ACC. If Duke wins the the ACC and splits with Carolina then Duke is looking at 4 home games.

13-3 wins it for sure
12-4 pushing it

The winner of the ACC Tournament is the team that "wins the ACC" as you put it. There is no regular season title.

That aside, I think you are saying that, given a split with UNC, if we go 13-3 in league play then we can get those 4 home games in the tourney. I think that even if we go 14-2, split with the heels and they win the ACC tournament (meaning we'd have to lose to someone else in order to split) then theres a real good shot they could get a better seed than us and we wouldnt get those 4 home games. So I'd have to say that your "13-3 wins it for sure" isn't true if you take "wins it" to ultimately mean that it gets us those 4 homes games.


then it would disappoint Heel fans immensely.

ooh. i like 'it'. whatever 'it' is.

[heath_harshman4]

Hey guys!!!

Why don't we just give the BCS a try?!?!?

instead of a 64 team tourney, we could get a bunch of useless "bowl" games with other teams! that way we'll get a "TRUE" national champion.

[sandinmyshoes]

There is an awful lot of basketball left to be played. It's always humorous the way the emotions and definitive statements from fans swing with every loss or big win.

Not too long ago we lost a game and it was doom and gloom from many of our fans. Then we get a nice win over Clemson and those same fans are inking us in as a number one seed.

Meanwhile, down the road eight miles, UNC stomps NCSU and their fans are giddy. Just a bit later they lose to Maryland and the talk is of a flawed team that can be easily had.

And then there is Maryland. Those of us who have seen enough ACC basketball over the years know that Maryland's win over UNC could be a fluke, or the awakening of the Terps, a team we have to play twice.

It's just too early to get super excited or super worried.