Gerald and Jon - a modest proposal

[mus074]

I know sometimes I can over-focus on a play or two and call it a microcosm of the whole game, so I try to look at the stats to give a more complete context to the observations. The stats so far tell us G might need to let the game come to him some more, and Scheyer could assert himself even more.

Again, I'm using Pomeroy's tempo-free breakdown of individual performance:
http://kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Duke&y=2008

Henderson is taking the team's second highest percentage of shots while on the floor. Only 3-mad TK is taking more relative to his minutes. Conversely, G has the worst effective FG %age on the team. The worst. (King has the team's highest eFG, clearly warranting his prolific shooting.) I like Henderson a great deal and think he has the most upside on the team. But, his offensive game is just not clicking so far. I don't know if he's forcing too much, but he has a hugely positive margin for improvement. If he starts to click, say in Feb/March, this offense stands to improve a great, great deal. A second successful, strong driver to compliment Nelson makes this guard-heavy team of spread-and-drive offense that much harder to contain.

Everyone else on the team has a relatively proportional eFG to % shots taken, except for Paulus who is shooting only a tiny hair worse than King but among the bottom of the team for % shots taken. That's the nature of his PG duties.

Scheyer has a decent eFG, but his offensive rating (ORtg), which captures turnovers, assists, offensive rebounding and FT shooting, is off the charts. His ORtg is 38th in the country and far and away best on the team. His TO rate (the %age of his possessions ending in a TO) ranks 76th in the country, and we know how many possessions go through his hands - nearly all of them. Yet, he uses fewer possessions and takes fewer shots as a percentage of his minutes than everyone but Lance and McClure. He's got lots of minutes - 2nd most on the team. He just needs to be even more Jon with them.

To apply the old adage of accentuating and eliminating, I'd like to see Jon even more involved in the offense and Gerald look to pass out to others instead of forcing shots on the drive. If this team were a portfolio, we'd be advised to trim down our Gerald and invest a little more heavily in Jon.

[pete]

I totally agree with the assertion that Jon needs to shoot more and be more involved in the offense. What does Gerald do that Jon doesn't. Jon rebounds just as wel,l is a better defender except with blocked shots, passes the ball and does not get tunnel vision, is a better three point shooter, better at the free throw line, and gets the entire team involved. Gerald is on occasion a highlight film but Jon has the better all around game and my opinion should start over Gerald. Besides the opening tip somebody please tell me why Jon is sitting and Gerald is starting. I suppose as long as they play the same amount of minutes its not a big deal but with the game on the line I want Jon with the ball.

[mus074]

i agree. its total minutes and the end of the game.

[SeattleIrish]

I totally agree with the assertion that Jon needs to shoot more and be more involved in the offense. What does Gerald do that Jon doesn't. Jon rebounds just as wel,l is a better defender except with blocked shots, passes the ball and does not get tunnel vision, is a better three point shooter, better at the free throw line, and gets the entire team involved. Gerald is on occasion a highlight film but Jon has the better all around game and my opinion should start over Gerald. Besides the opening tip somebody please tell me why Jon is sitting and Gerald is starting. I suppose as long as they play the same amount of minutes its not a big deal but with the game on the line I want Jon with the ball.

While it seems obvious to ask the guy who contributes most to start, it's certainly hard to argue that the current system ISN'T working - Scheyer off the bench provides that intangible spark that seems to lift the team to another level. Additionally, with Nelson graduating, I'm sure we'll see a lot of scenarios next season (and this season) where both are are on the floor, which is a wonderful dynamic; Henderson can break down a d much better then can Scheyer (although that was a hell of a nice spin move last night!), and should set up a ton of penetrate/dish points. Henderson also seems to play with his head up a bit more than Nelson, which should allow him to pass out of doubleteams better.

Bottom line - gotta love 'em both.:D

s.i.

[mus074]

While it seems obvious to ask the guy who contributes most to start, it's certainly hard to argue that the current system ISN'T working - Scheyer off the bench provides that intangible spark that seems to lift the team to another level. Additionally, with Nelson graduating, I'm sure we'll see a lot of scenarios next season (and this season) where both are are on the floor, which is a wonderful dynamic; Henderson can break down a d much better then can Scheyer (although that was a hell of a nice spin move last night!), and should set up a ton of penetrate/dish points. Henderson also seems to play with his head up a bit more than Nelson, which should allow him to pass out of doubleteams better.

Bottom line - gotta love 'em both.:D

s.i.

Just a little more Jon being Jon. The minutes distribution is fine. Just one or two more trips down the floor for Jon's shot and one or two fewer for G's.

[HumboldtDevil]

I disagree with the idea that Scheyer and henderson should switch places. There's no reason to mess with the mojo of either player or the team as a whole right now. Maybe it could get to the point where Coach K thinks he needs to not start Gerald to light a fire under him or something, but I don't think there is any reason to right now.

Regarding Gerald's effective field goal percentage, I think he needs to do a couple things. First, he needs to catch the ball and go more often. He has spent too much time doing the thing NBA wings do, which is catch the ball on the wing and dribble around and then force a drive. He needs to catch the ball and blow by his man. The second thing, kinda related to the first, is that Gerald needs to use his pull-up jumper more. And shoot it from closer than 18 feet. He could get that shot off all day and all night, but he has been a bit passive when he doesn't have a wide open lane. One last request is that Gerald try to take the ball the way to the rim more often. He has been driving and shooting from a few feet and trying to hang and get around contact too much. Think of his drive at the end of regulation against Pitt. There was great defensive pressure on him, but he could've pulled up for a wide open jumper at any point or gotten all the way to the hoop. Instead he settled for somewhere in between and has been doing so too much.

And with the way Jon has been playing all year off the bench I don't see any reason at all to start him. He gets starter minutes and it doesn't matter if five of those are right off the bat. One nitpick about Gerald is that early in a few games he has drawn some foul calls and gotten into trouble. Still, that's no reason to make him the sixth man.

[mus074]

I disagree with the idea that Scheyer and henderson should switch places. There's no reason to mess with the mojo of either player or the team as a whole right now. Maybe it could get to the point where Coach K thinks he needs to not start Gerald to light a fire under him or something, but I don't think there is any reason to right now.

Regarding Gerald's effective field goal percentage, I think he needs to do a couple things. First, he needs to catch the ball and go more often. He has spent too much time doing the thing NBA wings do, which is catch the ball on the wing and dribble around and then force a drive. He needs to catch the ball and blow by his man. The second thing, kinda related to the first, is that Gerald needs to use his pull-up jumper more. And shoot it from closer than 18 feet. He could get that shot off all day and all night, but he has been a bit passive when he doesn't have a wide open lane. One last request is that Gerald try to take the ball the way to the rim more often. He has been driving and shooting from a few feet and trying to hang and get around contact too much. Think of his drive at the end of regulation against Pitt. There was great defensive pressure on him, but he could've pulled up for a wide open jumper at any point or gotten all the way to the hoop. Instead he settled for somewhere in between and has been doing so too much.

And with the way Jon has been playing all year off the bench I don't see any reason at all to start him. He gets starter minutes and it doesn't matter if five of those are right off the bat. One nitpick about Gerald is that early in a few games he has drawn some foul calls and gotten into trouble. Still, that's no reason to make him the sixth man.

I hope you can see I was not advocating a switch in minutes or starting places.

[SilkyJ]

Scheyer has a decent eFG, but his offensive rating (ORtg), which captures turnovers, assists, offensive rebounding and FT shooting, is off the charts. His ORtg is 38th in the country and far and away best on the team. His TO rate (the %age of his possessions ending in a TO) ranks 76th in the country, and we know how many possessions go through his hands - nearly all of them. Yet, he uses fewer possessions and takes fewer shots as a percentage of his minutes than everyone but Lance and McClure. He's got lots of minutes - 2nd most on the team. He just needs to be even more Jon with them.



very interesting to say the least. thanks for lookin up all those numbers.

Do have to admit that the bolded part above stood out to me as a contradiction. If he uses fewer possesions than everyone but our two least offensively gifted players than to me it seems that "nearly all" of the possessions go through his hand seems way over the top, if not flat out wrong. Which actually enhances your overall argument (which I agree with, though not entirely) which is to get John the ball (the part I don't entirely agree with is the "at Gerald's expense." I think Gerald off a screen to shoot a 12-15 footer is a good play just about any time you run it. I can't understand why we dont do it more...I don't know whose shots you sacrifice, but I don't know if I'd pick Gerald's...)

[mus074]

Do have to admit that the bolded part above stood out to me as a contradiction. If he uses fewer possesions than everyone but our two least offensively gifted players than to me it seems that "nearly all" of the possessions go through his hand seems way over the top

First, a "used" possession is one that ends with a made basket, a defensive rebound or a TO. A possession with several passes could have everyone touch it, but only one person "uses" it. I was referencing his observed knack for always being in the middle of things, even if his role doesn't register on the stat sheet. That said, I was definitely exaggerating.

Thanks for bringing that to light, as I am sure others had the same thought. :)

[OldSchool]

I think the situation reflects the different potential and development stages of the two players.

Gerald, to me, is someone who is still figuring out what his limits are on a basketball court. I think the coaches are encouraging him to explore what he is capable of doing, fully recognizing he will be making mistakes along the way. We occasionally see flashes of the complete game from Gerald, taking his man off the dribble and to the rack, hitting the mid-range jumper, hitting the 3, locking down on D, etc. At the same time he sometimes forces things or is out of control. But his ceiling as a basketball player is very high, and if he continues to develop his game he could develop into an unstoppable offensive force, the go-to guy who is able to get the basket when things are toughest, which is a role this team really needs to go far.

Jon, on the other hand, seems to me to have the highest basketball IQ of anyone on the team. He plays within himself and rarely forces things, and is almost always in the right place at the right time and is very good at recognizing an opportunity when it presents itself and capitalizing on it. I'm sure Jon will continue to improve as a basketball player, but he doesn't have the sky's-the-limit potential Gerald has.

[mus074]

I think the situation reflects the different potential and development stages of the two players.

Gerald, to me, is someone who is still figuring out what his limits are on a basketball court. I think the coaches are encouraging him to explore what he is capable of doing, fully recognizing he will be making mistakes along the way. We occasionally see flashes of the complete game from Gerald, taking his man off the dribble and to the rack, hitting the mid-range jumper, hitting the 3, locking down on D, etc. At the same time he sometimes forces things or is out of control. But his ceiling as a basketball player is very high, and if he continues to develop his game he could develop into an unstoppable offensive force, the go-to guy who is able to get the basket when things are toughest, which is a role this team really needs to go far.

Jon, on the other hand, seems to me to have the highest basketball IQ of anyone on the team. He plays within himself and rarely forces things, and is almost always in the right place at the right time and is very good at recognizing an opportunity when it presents itself and capitalizing on it. I'm sure Jon will continue to improve as a basketball player, but he doesn't have the sky's-the-limit potential Gerald has.

I agree with your premise and like your insights. Maybe its not just about each game, but rather the future. Nice.

[OldSchool]

I just hope we get treated to a good full season of Gerald after he starts putting it all together and he doesn't take his act to the Association too soon.

[mus074]

Which actually enhances your overall argument (which I agree with, though not entirely) which is to get John the ball (the part I don't entirely agree with is the "at Gerald's expense." I think Gerald off a screen to shoot a 12-15 footer is a good play just about any time you run it. I can't understand why we dont do it more...I don't know whose shots you sacrifice, but I don't know if I'd pick Gerald's...)

Do you think G should be shooting 40% more than Kyle or Markie; 70% more than Jon; or, twice as much as Greg? Because he is, relative to minutes played.

I don't think he should be, if our goal is to be as efficient as possible in each game.

[dukemomLA]

Personally I don't think of this team as having a 'sixth man' or even a 'seventh man.' IMO, the joy of watching this team is....that IS a team in the truest sense. I LIKE JonS. coming off the bench. It's a spark -- and especially (for the time being) he seems to relish that role.

Starter-schmarter. Who cares. Same with LT, BZ, NS etc. There isn't anyone out there this season who hasn't grasped the concept that there no "I" in team. Even with the agonizing loss to Pitt, I never get a sense that these guys spend one nanosecond pouting or blaming each other or not focusing on the next play.

My only real complaint with this team is their FTs. It'll kill us, if they don't get it right. So....players who frequent the DBR site -- extra time practicing those throws. It's up to you, this isn't necessarily a coaches thing. There's nary a guy on this team who should be below 70-75% from the line. (Actually I think this team could lead the NCAA in this department -- but I've been shot down here before by suggesting that 80% is out of reach).

And yes, there were stretches in the FSU game where I'm thinking "Ugh, who are these guys? What happened to my team?" And I'm sure you were thinking the same. Do your thinking in practice, game time listen to your coaches, listen to each other, have a great time playing the game you love --a game at which you guys are so good.

I am so enjoying this year's team. They make me smile -- and usually hoot and holler. (And hold my head in disgusted disbelief at times). But it's a young team, learning as they go, but they're gritty, they're fighters, they rely on each other, and we fans are so blessed to have them. HELL -- We FANS are blessed every year...and year...and year. Ain't it grand to be a CAM CRAZIE? Yahoo

[ice-9]

My guess is that the coaching staff is encouraging GH to shoot and be aggressive on offense. I actually think this is good -- GH's biggest potential is in breaking down an opponent's defense and creating shots, and he won't reach that potential if at the back of his mind there's a little voice constantly telling him to be more efficient and not shoot so much.

Where I do think GH can improve significantly is finding open teammates when he has broken down the defense. He doesn't always have to finish the play by himself. Countless times I have seen him make an amazing play and drawing the double team but not passing to an open teammate. GH's next major evolution as a player is to be able to make those assists, but first, he does need to internalize the offensive aggressiveness that makes such plays possible in the first place.

GH's lesson plan:
1. sharpen those offensive instincts
2. assist to open teammates
3. get us a national championship ;)

[gw67]

Scheyer is 2nd on the Devils in mpg and Henderson is 5th which appears about right, IMO. I like Scheyer’s game just the way it is. He doesn’t force much and there is no guarantee that being more aggressive will help him maintain his game at a high level. Henderson is an exceptional player from 15 feet to the basket but he has some big holes in his game. Increased minutes this year have confirmed that he is a below average shooter (29.6% from three-point land and 66% from the foul line). He needs to work on his ballhandling (Can he go to his left?) and his passing. I would like to see the Devils clear out and set him up, back to the basket, down low. This approach has been used successfully with numerous perimeter players over the years who were great jumpers and strong offensive players but were average ballhandlers (West, Griffith and many others).

gw67

[grc5]

Whew- at first I was worried that you were going to propose that we eat Gerald Henderson and Jon Scheyer.

[mus074]

I like Scheyer’s game just the way it is. He doesn’t force much and there is no guarantee that being more aggressive will help him maintain his game at a high level.

The stats I posted above were as of Sunday - not including FSU. In that game, Jon shot an eFG of .769 and took 28.5% of the shots while on the floor - a major increase in involvement and maybe his best offensive performance of the year. Gerald took 20.4% of shots with an eFG of .444. Gerald's average of 29.6% of shots meant he would have shot 13 times instead of 9. Jon's average of 17.7% of shots meant he would have shot 8 times instead of 13.

This is just one game, but it illustrates my post well. Jon can assert himself more and still play at his high level. Gerald did just a little less than normal but still took the second most shots on the team. Its not a major shift, just a balancing toward more efficient use of the ball.

[mus074]

Whew- at first I was worried that you were going to propose that we eat Gerald Henderson and Jon Scheyer.

I'm glad someone picked up on that.

[Saratoga2]

A lesson learned from the FSU game is that Jon should touch the ball on every offensive play. His turnovers are low and he seems to see the floor better than even the point guards do. His offensive explosion was great, but even without that, his defense and ball handling were excellent. I was amazed at how the team seemed to go away from him during a large part of the second half.

Gerald on the other hand should not be a primary ball handler but should have others Jon and the point guards set him up with opportunities where he has an advantage. Limit his dribbling more and I agree that he needs to mature and make a pass when there is nothing for him offensively.

I would say the same applies for Demarcus as for Gerald. The only difference there is that DeMarcus is a little shorter and has a more difficult time getting his shot away over people. He too should look to the point guards and Jon to get him the ball in favorable situations.

[greybeard]

Seems to me that Gerald gives the team something no one else, with the possible exception of DeMarcus, can, and that that something explains his lower than ideal shooting percentage.

In the ebb and flow of games, there are times that other teams lock down on Duke and stop whatever offensive flow that Duke might want to create. It happens. In those moments, Gerald takes the ball, and yes, sometimes puts down his head, and says, "Game on, boys."

Now Gerald steps up big time in those circumstances and, if the other team stops him, they KNOW that they were in it. Those periods Gerald keeps Duke from seeming to sink. What's more, there are a number of times when, hello, he takes the best that the other team has to offer, all five of em if necessary, and rises above a guy who is three inches taller and just as athletic, and puts in a feathery jump shot. Stops the bleeding; also, takes my breath away.

I'd say that that is invaluable to this Duke team. I'd also like to think that more and more Gerald is going to make more and more of those shots when duty calls. Think David Thompson here. Or, Len Bias as a sophomore at the beginning of the season and at the end.

Anyway, in those moments, Scheyer, as talented as he is, is not going to hurt anyone, stand up to the lock down and say, "So what, try stopping this." This team needs that, and thankfully gets it from Gerald.

Come March, it could be real interesting; I like the kid's chances which, in my opinion, will greatly dictate Duke's.

[Indoor66]

Think David Thompson here. Or, Len Bias as a sophomore at the beginning of the season and at the end.

All due respect, but Gerald has a loooooooooooooong way to go before being mentioned in the same breath as David Thompson or Len Bias.

[greybeard]

All due respect, but Gerald has a loooooooooooooong way to go before being mentioned in the same breath as David Thompson or Len Bias.

Agreed. But they ain't on this team; Gerald is: "When you can't beee, with the one you love, love the one you're with."

On the other hand, both those guys were ruined by drugs. Gerald chose to go to Duke; he is young; and, you got to admit, when he elevates off the move for that feathery jump shot, he does sort of remind you of . . . , now don't he Indoor?

[speedevil]

jon can take all the shots he wants after gerald goes pro

[Jumbo]

Scheyer is 2nd on the Devils in mpg and Henderson is 5th which appears about right, IMO. I like Scheyer’s game just the way it is. He doesn’t force much and there is no guarantee that being more aggressive will help him maintain his game at a high level.

I think the minutes issue is fine. But I agree with the idea of changing the way both players are utilized. You guys know I've been singing this tune, but Scheyer HAS to touch the ball more (and that's where I'll respectfully disagree with you, GW). The first half of the FSU was a revelation because, as I wrote earlier, two things happened. 1) Scheyer finally took it upon himself to be more aggressive, and we saw just how awesome he could be (including attacking the hoop) and 2) Duke looked for him more, at least in the first half.

But Duke has to get Scheyer out of the corner. That is not his strength. If this is a derivation of the Suns' halfcourt offense, he is not Raja Bell (strictly a spot-up schooter on offense) and Duke has to stop using him that way. Get him the ball out front and let him create off the bounce. It's worth noting that when the game got tight, Duke made this switch, and he immediately found Singler for the go-ahead three off a pick-and-pop.

The thing I'd like to see out of Gerald (and a couple of announcers have mentioned this too) is posting him up. Duke has a great opportunity to invert its offense. Gerald might not have advanced post moves yet, but he can still take another wing on the block and get a good shot.

[greybeard]

jon can take all the shots he wants after gerald goes pro

He's a terrific player, extremely versatile, and always growing. I particularly like the way he slows now to finish under control with simple layups aka Nash. Classic!

As always, in trying to make one point, I overstate something else. Jon seems to have so many responsibilities that sap energy. That makes playing the role I mentioned problematic. If Jon could simply wait and catch in dangerous position, I'm sure he could give it a good go in the role mentioned above. I don't watch all that much, and, now that I think about it, he probably does.

[Jumbo]

jon can take all the shots he wants after gerald goes pro

What does that even mean? And what does that add to the conversation?

[gw67]

Hey Jumbo! - We at least agree on the minutes for both players and posting up Henderson. As I stated, I like the way Scheyer is currently being used (sort of a wing/point combination) and you and others have convinced me that he should touch the ball more often. I'm still not convinced that he should take on more of the scoring burden but based on the FSU game he came up strong when others were not producing.

gw67

[mus074]

I think the minutes issue is fine. But I agree with the idea of changing the way both players are utilized. You guys know I've been singing this tune, but Scheyer HAS to touch the ball more (and that's where I'll respectfully disagree with you, GW).

just a shill for Jumbo. I take his astute fundamental comments and prove them out with a selective assortment of stats.