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Jumbo
01-10-2008, 11:41 PM
I hadn't been a huge DeMarcus Nelson fan before this season. In fact, he often frustrated me. I lamented the way he (for three years) would simply put his head down and bull his way to the basket, without seeing his teammates or the defenders in his way. Privately, I hoped Henderson and Scheyer would surpass him this season. I assumed this habit would never changed.

I was wrong.

I was very wrong.

No one is going to confuse Nelson's court vision with Steve Nash's. But he is really making an effort to play with more control. He drives to the hoop with greater awareness. He's creating opportunities for others. He's understanding the game better.

Nelson isn't an offensive superstar. You're not going to run a ton of isolation for him an expect him to dominate. But he has grown into an all-around player. He is a fantastic defender. He is tremendous rebounder (and we don't even need to say "for his size" anymore). He is an improved shooter and he has shown the courage to take big shots late in games.

And like many Duke seniors before him, he seems to have grown into the role of a terrific leader, something I never envisioned a couple of years ago. We can't know for sure about the internal dynamics of a team with which we spend no time, but it certainly seems like the guys like and respect him. He appears to be vocal when he needs to be and his grit sets a tremendous example for everyone.

The kid has really grown up, and continues to do so a bit more every game. I'm proud to be able to watch it happen.

Jim3k
01-10-2008, 11:52 PM
Seconded! Hell, Thirded!

Markie has arrived. Just like JJ, whose game became rounded his senior season, the same thing has happened to Markie.

Well, 'happened' doesn't say it. He grew into it through sheer effort and desire. I 'spect it could have occurred sooner, but (fingers crossed, here) the injury bug kept biting him.

Being healthy cures a lot of things and allows for growth. Your observation about his keeping his head up is spot on.

(I do hope, when he cuts to the basket from the top of the key, he is using new sneakers for each game (a la Jeff Mullins, who went through a pair per game), so it minimizes his slipping on those damn decals and shiny paint jobs. Wet spots are one thing, but those painted areas/decals can be just as much trouble and you can't wipe them up.)

365Duke
01-10-2008, 11:54 PM
I think that he has done a lot of growing in his time at Duke also. He is certainly more vocal than ever before.


Gosh, I can't believe that I'm actually agreeing with a unc fan.:rolleyes: :D :eek: ;)

Bob Green
01-11-2008, 01:10 AM
I've been a huge DeMarcus Nelson fan all along so I am very pleased with his maturity as a leader and a player. Thanks for starting this thread. I hope all Duke fans appreciate how much better Nelson is playing.

greybeard
01-11-2008, 01:57 AM
I think Duke's style of play this year on both ends is a contributer. On offense, in particular, allows DeMarcus to move with the ball at a controlled pace to an area slightly above the foul line from which point he can make reliable reads and decisions about whether to pull up and shoot, take it to the basket, or kick. Very empowering and DeMarcus is a bundle to handle with those options and his talents in that context. I agree, it is terrific to see the stature he has come to embody.

SilkyJ
01-11-2008, 02:38 AM
Just like JJ, whose game became rounded his senior season, the same thing has happened to Markie.


jj scored 22 ppg his JUNIOR year. thats more than battier, jwill, brand, laettner, hill, dawkins ever averaged.


On offense, in particular, allows DeMarcus to move with the ball at a controlled pace to an area slightly above the foul line from which point he can make reliable reads and decisions about whether to pull up and shoot, take it to the basket, or kick.

i notice this too, but the only problem I see with that is people will start giving Demarcus the pull up 18 footer b/c his midrange game is pretty weak. Even if you think thats harsh, its certainly much weaker relative to his ability to take it all the way to the rim so people will start laying off him.

Jim3k
01-11-2008, 02:50 AM
jj scored 22 ppg his JUNIOR year. thats more than battier, jwill, brand, laettner, hill, dawkins ever averaged.



We are not talking scoring average, here. We are talking about his whole game. Just as JJ went from being an outside shooter, he reconfigured his offense to become a midrange threat, and a catch and shooter off screens, the willingness to constantly move without the ball, and even to play some better than adequate defense.

Markie's improvements are different, but he, like, JJ, has made himself a threat from more locations than simply driving into traffic. He could still improve his kickouts, but he knows much better what he's doing in the trees. He seems to be turning his FT's around, too, so driving and being fouled becomes a weapon, whereas before, he couldn't take advantage from the line (this is still a major work in progress). Plus his 3-pt shot is pretty effective. And, his defense, always good, has been stepped to an even higher level. He's cut down on his ballhandling mistakes and most importantly, has become the team's actual leader. The value of that cannot be overstated.

jma4life
01-11-2008, 04:34 AM
No doubt on the leadership. I fully expected Demarcus to continue to step up his game and he has not really surprised me in this regard. But the leadership he has (seemingly at least) shown is something I did not really expect to see from him this year. So far, that has probably been as important as any improvements in his overall game and skill.

gw67
01-11-2008, 07:58 AM
jumbo - You are right on. Nelson is not only the senior leader of this team but through the first 13 games he has been their best player, IMO.

gw67

yancem
01-11-2008, 08:13 AM
jj scored 22 ppg his JUNIOR year. thats more than battier, jwill, brand, laettner, hill, dawkins ever averaged.

Actually, JWill averaged 21.6 ppg as a sophomore to JJ's 21.8 as a junior.

Fish80
01-11-2008, 09:12 AM
Like Bob, I too have been a big DeMarcus fan all along. I love his game, and he has really stepped it up this year.

And fans sometimes forget, he's made a number of big time plays with the game on the line. Against VCU last year he drove the length of the court to put us ahead. In the December Davidson game he made the plays to get Paulus his shots in the last two minutes. Versus Pitt, he had that amazing layup at the end of overtime that gave us the lead. There are more examples, but you get the point.

Most importantly, this team is his team. And they are a close group, with great chemistry, having fun and winning.

Jeffrey
01-11-2008, 09:32 AM
Hi,

Yet another prime example of the benefits from staying in college all 4 years.

Best regards,
Jeffrey

whereinthehellami
01-11-2008, 09:44 AM
I was in the same boat as Jumbo. In pre-season I kept wanting to overlook Nelson in favor of another player. Now I'm wondering if we have anyone that will be able to fill his void next year? Nelson has a hand in everything it seems. His inside presence for this small team is huge. If he could ony nail 70% of his FT or better.

CDu
01-11-2008, 09:50 AM
Actually, JWill averaged 21.6 ppg as a sophomore to JJ's 21.8 as a junior.

Well, technically, 21.6 is still less than the 21.8 that Redick averaged. As is the 21.3 Williams averaged as a junior is less than 21.8. Not to say Redick was better than Williams, but Silky's statement was accurate.

SlimSlowSlider
01-11-2008, 10:09 AM
Jumbo,

I know you follow the NBA. Do you think Markie has a shot to stick in the league? He is a great defender. Offensively, he seems too small given his skill set (more of a forward than a guard), but if he works on his handle and shot ....

Slim

dyedwab
01-11-2008, 10:23 AM
I agree with what everyone has said thus far. Here's my question Where among rebounding guards can we place Demarcus. In my limited years of watching the ACC, the two best I remember are Bruce Dalrymple and Phil Henderson.

Other thoughts?

Fish80
01-11-2008, 10:47 AM
Phil Henderson was a good rebounding guard, but not one of the best all time. He averaged 3.8 rpg his senior year, 2.9 overall.

Maybe you're thinking of David Henderson? He averaged 4.8 rpg his senior year. But he was also a combo forward / guard.

gw67
01-11-2008, 10:48 AM
Nelson is certainly one of the best rebounding guards of all time in the ACC. He compares favorably with Dalrymple of Georgia Tech who was a terrific defender/rebounder from the guard position. Another guard who was an outstanding defender/rebounder was Johnny Rhoades of Maryland. The best rebounding guard in ACC history, IMO, was Bob Sura. He averaged 6.0 rpg over his career and 7 rpg over his final three years. He was a very agressive player who had good quickness and jumping ability. He was also an outstanding offensive player who averaged 18 ppg over four years and he was a creative passer who averaged 3.7 apg over his career.

gw67

greybeard
01-11-2008, 11:47 AM
jj scored 22 ppg his JUNIOR year. thats more than battier, jwill, brand, laettner, hill, dawkins ever averaged.



i notice this too, but the only problem I see with that is people will start giving Demarcus the pull up 18 footer b/c his midrange game is pretty weak. Even if you think thats harsh, its certainly much weaker relative to his ability to take it all the way to the rim so people will start laying off him.

I see the point of decision being more maybe a foot behind the foul line (I forget how far that is). With DeMarcus moving at a very controlled pace, in balance and rhythm, it is difficult for a defender to give him that shot. Anyway, if he feels it he shoots it; an open shot from a step behind the foul line in rhythm, either you take that or you are in the wrong sport. Besides, it almost doesn't matter what the defender wants to give. He has to be moving at DeMarcus's pace; no choice here. If he gives ground to DMarcus and allows DeMarcus more freedom to dictate, DeMarcus closes the space himself until there is contact and he is into the interior of the defense, one on one, with his momentum going forward and the other guy waiting on him. I like that position; I'm sure K and DeMarcus do too.

The guy must guard the dribbler as he enters inside the key, and if the dribbler sees a lane, and can explode with a first large attacking step like DeMarcus can, he can and will hurt you. Much more under control; much less time for help to adjust; easy to read the help and know when it calls for a kick. Very nice concept.

Previous years, it was about being dangerous from the 3 line, and starting charges from that distance. I like this much better. Find that it is a bit of a throw back to pre 3 times, and takes away some of what makes the 3-game less interesting and clever to me than the game of old.

jimsumner
01-11-2008, 11:58 AM
Phil Henderson was an ordinary rebounder for 6'4." Dawkins was a better rebounder, as were Spanarkel, Vince Taylor, and Thomas Hill.

Of course, this brings up a taxonomy question. Is Nelson a guard? In conventional terms, a basketball team consists of one center, two forwards, and two guards. We hear a lot about Duke's three-guard lineup. Is one of those guards a de facto forward?

Duke's nominal starting lineup can be defined as Paulus/Smith at the 1, Nelson at the 2, Henderson at the 3. So Nelson is a guard. But when Scheyer comes in for Henderson, Nelson becomes a forward. When Duke goes small, Henderson is the 4, Nelson the 3. Except when Duke plays Paulus, Smith, Scheyer, and Nelson. Then Nelson is the 4.

Of course, Duke doesn't have positions, so this is all hypothetical. :)

Jumbo
01-11-2008, 12:44 PM
Jumbo,

I know you follow the NBA. Do you think Markie has a shot to stick in the league? He is a great defender. Offensively, he seems too small given his skill set (more of a forward than a guard), but if he works on his handle and shot ....

Slim

Sadly, I don't. He's listed at 6'4", but I wouldn't be surprised if he were closer to 6'2". He just doesn't have the requisite skill set to be a successful NBA guard, despite his outstanding defense and athleticism. I really, really hope I'm wrong again, though.

CDu
01-11-2008, 12:54 PM
Sadly, I don't. He's listed at 6'4", but I wouldn't be surprised if he were closer to 6'2". He just doesn't have the requisite skill set to be a successful NBA guard, despite his outstanding defense and athleticism. I really, really hope I'm wrong again, though.

I agree unfortunately. With his lack of a great outside shot, with his lack of a point guard game, and with the fact that he's probably only 6'2", he has little shot at making it. The guys 6'2" and under who succeed as shooting guards in the NBA are few and far between. And those who do make it tend to be either absolutely freakish athletes (like Iverson) or tremendous outside shooters (like Gordon). Nelson has been terrific for us this year, but he's not nearly in either Gordon's nor Iverson's category.

SilkyJ
01-11-2008, 01:08 PM
We are not talking scoring average, here. We are talking about his whole game. Just as JJ went from being an outside shooter, he reconfigured his offense to become a midrange threat, and a catch and shooter off screens, the willingness to constantly move without the ball, and even to play some better than adequate defense.


I feel that JJ developed these things by the time he was a junior. He improved on them going into his senior year, but I think his biggest development came from soph to junior season.


Actually, JWill averaged 21.6 ppg as a sophomore to JJ's 21.8 as a junior.

I'm not sure what your point is. See below.


Well, technically, 21.6 is still less than the 21.8 that Redick averaged. As is the 21.3 Williams averaged as a junior is less than 21.8. Not to say Redick was better than Williams, but Silky's statement was accurate.


Jumbo,

I know you follow the NBA. Do you think Markie has a shot to stick in the league? He is a great defender. Offensively, he seems too small given his skill set (more of a forward than a guard), but if he works on his handle and shot ....

Slim

I think his athleticism and rebounding give him a shot, but its close. FWIW, A friend of mine whose uncle is a scout said her uncle told her Demarc will not make it in the league.


I see the point of decision being more maybe a foot behind the foul line (I forget how far that is). With DeMarcus moving at a very controlled pace, in balance and rhythm, it is difficult for a defender to give him that shot. Anyway, if he feels it he shoots it; an open shot from a step behind the foul line in rhythm, either you take that or you are in the wrong sport. Besides, it almost doesn't matter what the defender wants to give. He has to be moving at DeMarcus's pace; no choice here. If he gives ground to DMarcus and allows DeMarcus more freedom to dictate, DeMarcus closes the space himself until there is contact and he is into the interior of the defense, one on one, with his momentum going forward and the other guy waiting on him. I like that position; I'm sure K and DeMarcus do too.


the foul line is 15 ft, so the area ur talking about is 16/17 feet-ish...

I definitely agree that if he's open he needs to shoot it, but I just think his pull up J from that area is very weak. I dont know if someone has stats on midrange shots but I bet he shoots a very low %.

Good point on him closing out the space, he does it a lot and he's very quick so often draws that contact like you mention. just keep knocking down those FTs!!



Duke's nominal starting lineup can be defined as Paulus/Smith at the 1, Nelson at the 2, Henderson at the 3. So Nelson is a guard.

Of course, Duke doesn't have positions, so this is all hypothetical. :)

Since they dont have set position on offense, you can only really look at it by who they guard on D, and I dont necessarily think that G is the "3" in this situation. Demarcus is better at guarding big guys and is a better rebounder than G. Of course, he is also quicker and can guard the perimeter players better so I think of demarcus as a G/F who guards whoever their best wing player is whether he is a guy who likes to play inside or outside.

I think from a comparative advantage perspective, gerald is better at guarding the 3 than he is a quick 2 so he ends up guarding the 3 more and we think of him as more of the 3 in that lineup, but I see Demarc as a SF for us with this smaller team. Maybe its better to say we play a PG and two SFs...

you know what, who really cares? let's just win!

ArnieMc
01-11-2008, 01:24 PM
Sadly, I don't. He's listed at 6'4", but I wouldn't be surprised if he were closer to 6'2". He just doesn't have the requisite skill set to be a successful NBA guard, despite his outstanding defense and athleticism. I really, really hope I'm wrong again, though.With his physical abilities, he might make a pretty good safety. Can he stick around a year and play for Coach Cut?

Clipsfan
01-11-2008, 02:20 PM
Sadly, I don't. He's listed at 6'4", but I wouldn't be surprised if he were closer to 6'2". He just doesn't have the requisite skill set to be a successful NBA guard, despite his outstanding defense and athleticism. I really, really hope I'm wrong again, though.

With his really long arms, he plays bigger than his height (and as ripped as he is, he's strong enough to play a little bigger as well). I'm afraid that his shot isn't accurate enough as it is, but that with some work on the NBA 3 I would hope that he can find a role as a defensive player. He won't be able to live up to his billing as CA's leading scorer once he gets to the NBA, but he may be able to turn into a defensive stopper?

Fish80
01-11-2008, 02:50 PM
With his really long arms, he plays bigger than his height (and as ripped as he is, he's strong enough to play a little bigger as well). I'm afraid that his shot isn't accurate enough as it is, but that with some work on the NBA 3 I would hope that he can find a role as a defensive player. He won't be able to live up to his billing as CA's leading scorer once he gets to the NBA, but he may be able to turn into a defensive stopper?


DeMarcus shares some traits with Greg Buckner. About the same size, great rebounders and defenders. Greg is having a pretty good NBA career. I think there's a place for DeMarcus in the NBA.

jimsumner
01-11-2008, 02:59 PM
Nelson should get picked in the second round.

Boozer and Duhon were second-round picks. Then again, so were Vince Taylor, Brian Davis, Thomas Hill, Eric Meek, Chris Carrawell, and Dan Ewing. Tony Lang stuck around awhile out of the second round and the jury is still out on Josh McRoberts.

Second-round gets you invited to the dance. Who you go home with depends on a lot of variables, the biggest of which is whether one gets drafted by a team than needs what you provide.

I do think DeMarcus is a tad under 6'4" but he's definitely taller than 6'2". His best bet, IMO, is to stick as a physical defensive stopper. I wouldn't put it past him.

ThatDukeFan1
01-11-2008, 03:00 PM
he hit 6-7 FT's in this past game. i was actually proud of him

and the team as a whole hit 24-29 (83%) good improvement.

gw67
01-11-2008, 03:13 PM
I'm the last person on this board capable of predicting who will or won't be drafted and play in the NBA. I continue to be astounded that Steve Blake has played in the NBA for 4 years and is a valuable starter for Portland. Strawberry has similar skills to Nelson and he made the Pheonix roster. I expect Nelson to be drafted (it appears to me that NBA types like Duke players) and whether he is able to play for a while will depend on the makeup of the team that drafts him and the effort he puts into improving his ballhandling during the summer.

gw67

CDu
01-11-2008, 03:17 PM
I'm the last person on this board capable of predicting who will or won't be drafted and play in the NBA. I continue to be astounded that Steve Blake has played in the NBA for 4 years and is a valuable starter for Portland. Strawberry has similar skills to Nelson and he made the Pheonix roster. I expect Nelson to be drafted (it appears to me that NBA types like Duke players) and whether he is able to play for a while will depend on the makeup of the team that drafts him and the effort he puts into improving his ballhandling during the summer.

gw67

Strawberry has similar skills to Nelson but he also has about 2-3 inches in height. That is, in NBA terms, a big difference. Nelson would be an undersized guy playing shooting guards. Strawberry is actually the right size to be a shooting guard.

SilkyJ
01-11-2008, 04:12 PM
Strawberry has similar skills to Nelson and he made the Pheonix roster. I expect Nelson to be drafted (it appears to me that NBA types like Duke players) and whether he is able to play for a while will depend on the makeup of the team that drafts him and the effort he puts into improving his ballhandling during the summer.

gw67

but strawberry is a way better ball handler. demarcus is lacking in that regard, as you pointed out.

Devilsfan
01-11-2008, 04:14 PM
He's 6'2" and has been 6'2" since entering Duke.

SilkyJ
01-11-2008, 04:28 PM
He's 6'2" and has been 6'2" since entering Duke.

how are you able to state that with such certainty? they've always listed him as 6'4" since entering duke.

IIRC, in HS he was listed as 6'3 or 6'4 depending on the recruiting site...

CDu
01-11-2008, 04:40 PM
how are you able to state that with such certainty? they've always listed him as 6'4" since entering duke.

IIRC, in HS he was listed as 6'3 or 6'4 depending on the recruiting site...

I can't say with any certainty, but he appears closer in height to Greg Paulus than Gerald Henderson. Paulus is listed at 6'1", and Henderson is listed at 6'4".

If he IS actually 6'4", then he may be able to carve a small role as a defensive sub. But that's if he lands with the right team, and even then it's no guarantee (Duke has had plenty of players as good or better than Nelson not make it). If he's 6'2", then I think the odds are very much against him.

jimsumner
01-11-2008, 05:06 PM
Some of Duke's listed heights are a bit funky. Nelson looks more like 6'3" to me, Henderson more like 6'5" yet they're both listed as 6'4". I asked King once how tall he was and he said 6'7 1/2."

So who knows?

Jim3k
01-11-2008, 05:12 PM
His best bet, IMO, is to stick as a physical defensive stopper. I wouldn't put it past him.

Does the name John Brisker ring a bell?

In fact, there are a lot of physical similarities shared by Brisker and Nelson. On a pro court, Brisker was a load.

I haven't looked up his ABA/NBA career stats, but when he played for the Sonics in c. 1972 he was the baddest guy on the court. He looked like a linebacker and played ferociously. Unfortunately, he probably suffered from a mental illness. He was a very prickly sort. He left basketball at the peak of his career, and IIRC, believing he could become some kind of mercenary in Africa.

This 2004 Seattle P-I story (http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/jamieson/180459_robert02.html)is close to, but not exactly, what I recall.

Still, my point is that Markie and Brisker's games and physiques are very similar. Markie can make in the NBA.

CDu
01-11-2008, 05:25 PM
Does the name John Brisker ring a bell?

In fact, there are a lot of physical similarities shared by Brisker and Nelson. On a pro court, Brisker was a load.

I haven't looked up his ABA/NBA career stats, but when he played for the Sonics in c. 1972 he was the baddest guy on the court. He looked like a linebacker and played ferociously. Unfortunately, he probably suffered from a mental illness. He was a very prickly sort. He left basketball at the peak of his career, and IIRC, believing he could become some kind of mercenary in Africa.

This 2004 Seattle P-I story (http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/jamieson/180459_robert02.html)is close to, but not exactly, what I recall.

Still, my point is that Markie and Brisker's games and physiques are very similar. Markie can make in the NBA.

I have two issues with this comparison:

1. Brisker was listed at 6'5", while DeMarcus is more likely 6'2" or 6'3". Now, it may be that Brisker's height is fudged, too. Who knows? But if not, 2-3 inches can make a big difference.

2. Brisker played in the NBA 35 years ago. Back then, 6'5" 210 was a lot more impressive physique than it is today. With strength training, bettter nutrition habits, and (potentially) the emergence of PEDs), today's players are much bigger, stronger, and faster. Nowadays, 6'5" 210 is a pedestrian build for a shooting guard. It is very doubtful that a guy that size would dominate the boards like that (20 points, 9 rebounds) in the NBA today.

Jim3k
01-11-2008, 05:32 PM
Nowadays, 6'5" 210 is a pedestrian build for a shooting guard. It is very doubtful that a guy that size would dominate the boards like that (20 points, 9 rebounds) in the NBA today.

Good points, but I guarantee you that Brisker weighed closer to 235, than 210. I saw him play every home game for a year. He was a wide-body and rock hard. And he ran, not like a deer, but like a locomotive.

Jumbo
01-11-2008, 06:29 PM
Why has this become a debate over Nelson's NBA merits? Don't we have May and June to do that? Let's appreciate that we have him for the time being.

CDu
01-11-2008, 09:55 PM
Good points, but I guarantee you that Brisker weighed closer to 235, than 210. I saw him play every home game for a year. He was a wide-body and rock hard. And he ran, not like a deer, but like a locomotive.

Even more of a difference between Brisker and Nelson. Nelson's nowhere near 235.

CDu
01-11-2008, 09:56 PM
Why has this become a debate over Nelson's NBA merits? Don't we have May and June to do that? Let's appreciate that we have him for the time being.

Agreed. I'm very happy with his progress this year. Hopefully he can lead us to some nice moments in the ACC and NCAA tourney.

Jim3k
01-11-2008, 10:44 PM
Even more of a difference between Brisker and Nelson. Nelson's nowhere near 235.

I was planning to take Jumbo's advice. But it is clear that Nelson weighs much more than his listed 200. The next time you see Nelson standing next to Taylor King, who weighs 230, see if you don't think Nelson is closer to 230 than 200. I'd guess he's about 215-220 right now.

OK, Jumbo. I'll stop now. :)

pete
01-11-2008, 10:58 PM
My prediction is Markie will get drafted mid-second round and become a better NBA player than JJ because of his ability to play defense. Markie is a multi-dimensional college player and will take his skills to the next level even though he undersized. For example JJ was unarguably the best college shooter in the last 10 years but he was excellent in one area. Markie leads this team in points, rebounds, steals, and is second in assists and is more of an all around player and not a one trick pony. When I take a look at this team the guys I see making the NBA one day are Markie, Henderson, and Singler. However I see Markie being a sixth man in the NBA whereas I see Henderson and Singler as starters one day.

watzone
01-12-2008, 12:07 AM
Sadly, I don't. He's listed at 6'4", but I wouldn't be surprised if he were closer to 6'2". He just doesn't have the requisite skill set to be a successful NBA guard, despite his outstanding defense and athleticism. I really, really hope I'm wrong again, though.

I think Markie will be a good NBA player if for no other reason than his strength. He was Cali's all time leading scorer in high school and third in rebounding to boot. Nelson has shown he can suceed at every level thus far. He may actually score more in a "looser" system. He was very streaky in high school and still is a bit. Sometimes, that translates well offensively in the NBA. Markie's desire is relentless.

Ignatius07
01-12-2008, 12:17 AM
I would add Smith to the list of players with a legit shot at making the league. At this point, he seems to be heir apparent for the point guard role. If he can learn how to play PG and develop offensively as he projects to, he will certainly get a look by scouts. Also - who knows what will happen with Lance and Zoubek? Much crazier things have happened.

pete
01-12-2008, 12:52 AM
Watzone - You bring up a good point regarding Markies desire. There are a quite a few lazy players in the NBA who don't have a work ethic like Markie and his will power may get him over the hump. Nolans NBA chances are hard to gauge for me right now. As he gets more PT than it will be easier to determine his chances, he obviously has bloodlines in his favor as does Gerald.

dukelifer
01-12-2008, 07:47 AM
DeMarcus shares some traits with Greg Buckner. About the same size, great rebounders and defenders. Greg is having a pretty good NBA career. I think there's a place for DeMarcus in the NBA.

Buckner is a good analogy but he may be a legit 6' 4". Demarcus is not as tall as he is listed- maybe not even 6' 2"- which in some ways makes what he does do even more remarkable.

One thing that Demarcus has going for him is that he may be the hardest working player Duke has ever had- he is a lunch pail guy who gives his all. His early year injuries set his development back. I suspect he will not get drafted but he will play somewhere and fight his way on to an NBA team at some point. If he does make it- it will come from continuing to work hard.

CDu
01-12-2008, 08:48 AM
I think Markie will be a good NBA player if for no other reason than his strength. He was Cali's all time leading scorer in high school and third in rebounding to boot. Nelson has shown he can suceed at every level thus far. He may actually score more in a "looser" system. He was very streaky in high school and still is a bit. Sometimes, that translates well offensively in the NBA. Markie's desire is relentless.

There are very few systems in the NBA that are "looser" than Duke's system. The NBA is notorious for being all about isolations and set plays. A few teams deviate from that, but most don't.

CDu
01-12-2008, 08:49 AM
I was planning to take Jumbo's advice. But it is clear that Nelson weighs much more than his listed 200. The next time you see Nelson standing next to Taylor King, who weighs 230, see if you don't think Nelson is closer to 230 than 200. I'd guess he's about 215-220 right now.

OK, Jumbo. I'll stop now. :)

Even if you're right, 6'5" 235 from 35 years ago is still a LOT different than 6'3" 215 today.

Jumbo
01-12-2008, 11:36 AM
I think Markie will be a good NBA player if for no other reason than his strength. He was Cali's all time leading scorer in high school and third in rebounding to boot. Nelson has shown he can suceed at every level thus far. He may actually score more in a "looser" system. He was very streaky in high school and still is a bit. Sometimes, that translates well offensively in the NBA. Markie's desire is relentless.

I hate, hate, HATE that this thread is now about Markie's NBA chances. I also hate that I'm allowing myself to get dragged into it. If I'm an NBA scout looking at Nelson (and I've spoken to some about Duke players), here's what I see.

-A 6'3" guy. In the NBA, that's point guard size. Not only is he not a point guard, he hasn't even shown the handle or shooting ability to be an NBA 2-guard. That's a big, big problem.
-A teriffic rebounder ... against college kids. Is he really going to hit the boards as hard when he is matched up with 6'7" wings most nights?
-A very good defender. But, again, he's going to have to guard much bigger players in the NBA who are every bit as athletic as he is.

These are all problems, and they are reasons why the NBA doesn't have high hopes for DeMarcus Nelson. Maybe he can improve in some areas. But the fact that he was the leading scorer in California history and third-leading rebounder means nothing -- he was playing in suburban Sacramento. The level of competition he faced was extremely weak.

Here's to hoping that Markie faces up to his weaknesses and finds a way to conquer them. And if he has to go to Europe for a couple of years to do it (or he spends his pro years making good money there), so be it.

Jumbo
01-12-2008, 11:38 AM
I would add Smith to the list of players with a legit shot at making the league. At this point, he seems to be heir apparent for the point guard role. If he can learn how to play PG and develop offensively as he projects to, he will certainly get a look by scouts. Also - who knows what will happen with Lance and Zoubek? Much crazier things have happened.

From talking to scouts, here's who they thing will definitely play in the league:
-Singler
-Henderson
-Scheyer

In addition, I haven't talked to them much about Smith, but I'm sure that if he develops as expected, he'll have an excellent chance to make the league. Finally, Zoubek always has a chance, just because of his height. It will be interesting to see what he looks like two years from now.

Ignatius07
01-12-2008, 12:11 PM
Scheyer, really? I mean I expect him to continue to improve and he is certainly a gamer, but at this point in time he is just so thin. I wouldn't describe him as unathletic at the college level, but at the pro level he certainly will be. Still, if he continues to improve his handle and makes a big jump between his sophomore and junior years a la JJ, I suppose he could get drafted.

mapei
01-12-2008, 12:26 PM
He was Cali's all time leading scorer in high school.

Watzone is one of my heroes on this board, so I'm not picking on him specifically . . . but can we ban this phrase from the board? It is simply not relevant any more. If there is a knock on DeMarcus, it is that his high school accomplishments still seem to define who he is as a basketball player, even as a senior in an elite college program.

I also agree that he shouldn't be judged on his NBA potential, although it's fun to speculate on who can make it there and who can't. Personally, I don't see DeMarcus being able to do what Carrawell or Trajan couldn't, though I do think he will get a chance.

Jumbo
01-12-2008, 12:55 PM
Scheyer, really? I mean I expect him to continue to improve and he is certainly a gamer, but at this point in time he is just so thin. I wouldn't describe him as unathletic at the college level, but at the pro level he certainly will be. Still, if he continues to improve his handle and makes a big jump between his sophomore and junior years a la JJ, I suppose he could get drafted.

Really. In fact, short of an injury (knock on wood), I feel comfortable calling his NBA chances close to a lock. Don't compare him to J.J. -- their games are in no way similar. Scheyer is a legit 6'5" has better all-around skills and is way more atheltic. Obviously he doesn't shoot it like J.J. But that's not a big deal. To consider him "unathletic" at the pro level is false. He won't be super-quick or play above the rim, but he moves well. It's considered a given that as he gets older, he'll put on weight (who doesn't?). The guy has a knack for scoring, and he's not even really looking for his shot right now. Some NBA types don't love the way Duke utilizing him (he's more clever with the ball in his hands than standing in the corner), but make no mistake, he'll play in the league, and play well.

Ignatius07
01-12-2008, 02:20 PM
I did not really mean to call Scheyer "unathletic" at the NBA level. What I should have said is that he will not be considered athletic at that level. Obviously there is room in-between.

What's wrong with comparing him to JJ? Especially when what I said was that hopefully he will make a big sophomore-to-junior improvement like JJ did. People seem awfully touchy about any mention of Scheyer and JJ in the same sentence. I also hope we see a JJ-like post-sophomore improvement from Lance Thomas, which I think we all expect to happen. To me, Redick comes to mind first for a recent player who's largest improvement (in my view) came between those two seasons. Scheyer is better this year, no doubt, but not vastly improved. He was pretty solid as a freshman.

SilkyJ
01-13-2008, 12:52 AM
From talking to scouts, here's who they thing will definitely play in the league:
-Singler
-Henderson
-Scheyer



fwiw, not the scouts i talked to, but it was only two of them. ur sample could easily be larger. The only real difference was that scheyer was not on their list. they didn't rule it out but both thought it was less than 50% chance. i'm sure there's diversity of opinion on him, though.

henderson was a definitely and singler was basically definitely, but needs one more year.

Jumbo
01-13-2008, 02:08 AM
fwiw, not the scouts i talked to, but it was only two of them. ur sample could easily be larger. The only real difference was that scheyer was not on their list. they didn't rule it out but both thought it was less than 50% chance. i'm sure there's diversity of opinion on him, though.

henderson was a definitely and singler was basically definitely, but needs one more year.

We've had this discussion before, right? Weren't these a couple of guys at a game last season?

SilkyJ
01-13-2008, 03:00 AM
We've had this discussion before, right? Weren't these a couple of guys at a game last season?

Good memory. I did sit next to some scouts last season but there was no talk of singler then. They did say similar things about henderson and scheyer. they basically said they were there to scout mcbob and henderson.


The guys I am referring to in this thread are actually different scouts that I only came to know recently.

I don't have quite as good of a memory so I dont remember from the previous discussion who the scouts you know are...

Jumbo
01-13-2008, 12:59 PM
Good memory. I did sit next to some scouts last season but there was no talk of singler then. They did say similar things about henderson and scheyer. they basically said they were there to scout mcbob and henderson.


The guys I am referring to in this thread are actually different scouts that I only came to know recently.

I don't have quite as good of a memory so I dont remember from the previous discussion who the scouts you know are...

I've spoken to several people, but there is one particular opinion I trust more than others, based on that person's position. Sorry that I can't be more open than that. ;)

I'm willing to bet that the difference we're finding on Scheyer is between guys who are evaluating players with the coming draft in mind and guys who are looking down the road. All the guys I talk to think Scheyer is a four-year player, but they all believe he is an NBA player, too. Either way, we'll know in about 2.5 years! ;)

SilkyJ
01-13-2008, 02:33 PM
I've spoken to several people, but there is one particular opinion I trust more than others, based on that person's position. Sorry that I can't be more open than that. ;)

I'm willing to bet that the difference we're finding on Scheyer is between guys who are evaluating players with the coming draft in mind and guys who are looking down the road. All the guys I talk to think Scheyer is a four-year player, but they all believe he is an NBA player, too. Either way, we'll know in about 2.5 years! ;)

gotcha. let's hope its 2.5yrs and 3.5yrs before we know for hendo and singler as well...

Mudge
01-16-2008, 01:34 AM
I must admit that I too have been mildly (and pleasantly) surprised with Nelson's improved play this year. I also believe that Nelson has never been able to be the player that he might have been, because of the thumb ligament injury that he suffered to his shooting hand, before he had ever played a regular season game for Duke- we will never know what kind of shooter and ball-handler he might have been, because we will never see what his physical skills would have been like without a (permanently) injured dominant hand. I have had the same injury while a varsity athlete for Duke, and I can attest that my hand's grip strength, dexterity, flexibility, etc., have never been the same thereafter, despite years of physical therapy and weighlifting to strengthen the hand.

That said, in the cold light of day, I think it is nearly ridiculous to think that Nelson will be drafted or be an NBA roster player (let alone a 6th man). He still has below average dribbling skills for a guard. He still doesn't pass the ball, unless clubbed over the head. And, for the life of me, (at the risk of aggravating those who want to ban this phrase) I still can't understand how someone (especially a guard who probably got fouled an incredible amount on drives to the basket and offensive rebound stickback attempts against larger opponents) could have become the all-time California HS leading scorer, without being able to shoot better than ~55% from the foul line- that's just a Clemsonian level of ineptitude.

When was the last time that Nelson passed the ball up the court to a breaking teammate, after he collected a defensive rebound? He invariably gets a defensive rebound and then dribbles all the way up the court, then drives to the basket, unless stopped by virtually all 5 opponents gang-tackling him, rugby-style; only then does he (sometimes!) decide to give the ball up to an uncovered teammate. Sometimes, even that scenario is not enough to keep Nelson from forcing up an ill-considered shot against (usually) taller opponents. Occasionally, this drive is concluded by dribbling the ball off his own leg or foot; unfortunately, when he does feel compelled (by the massed bodies of taller opponents) to give the ball up on one of his head-long charges, he is often out of control and ends up passing the ball off the shins or feet of one of his teammates (and out of bounds). Nelson is a virtual black hole when he gets a defensive rebound- the ball goes into his hands, but it never comes back out, except as a shot or a turnover.

Last, on this vaunted defensive skill and quickness that Nelson is alleged to have: to me, Nelson is a classic tweener, but in a different way than Dunleavy, who is too slow to guard the shooting guards and small forwards of the NBA, and not big or powerful enough to guard the power forwards or centers of the NBA. Nelson is too slow to guard the quicker point guards (cf.- Marquette and UNC last season), and he will be too small to guard the shooting guards and small forwards of the NBA, who will be able to match his athleticism, but will be taller by anywhere from 4-6 inches (e.g.- Bryant, James). I was disappointed to see how overmatched Nelson was last year against Lawson; I think Lawson is way overhyped for his quickness- and yet Lawson embarassed Nelson several times last year. (I predict Lawson will be nothing special in the NBA, quickness-wise, and is certainly nowhere near the Iverson, Parker, Van Exel type of quickness that a number of NBA guards possess, but he is too quick for Nelson.)

SeattleIrish
01-16-2008, 02:40 AM
I must admit that I too have been mildly (and pleasantly) surprised with Nelson's improved play this year. I also believe that Nelson has never been able to be the player that he might have been, because of the thumb ligament injury that he suffered to his shooting hand, before he had ever played a regular season game for Duke- we will never know what kind of shooter and ball-handler he might have been, because we will never see what his physical skills would have been like without a (permanently) injured dominant hand. I have had the same injury while a varsity athlete for Duke, and I can attest that my hand's grip strength, dexterity, flexibility, etc., have never been the same thereafter, despite years of physical therapy and weighlifting to strengthen the hand.

That said, in the cold light of day, I think it is nearly ridiculous to think that Nelson will be drafted or be an NBA roster player (let alone a 6th man). He still has below average dribbling skills for a guard. He still doesn't pass the ball, unless clubbed over the head. And, for the life of me, (at the risk of aggravating those who want to ban this phrase) I still can't understand how someone (especially a guard who probably got fouled an incredible amount on drives to the basket and offensive rebound stickback attempts against larger opponents) could have become the all-time California HS leading scorer, without being able to shoot better than ~55% from the foul line- that's just a Clemsonian level of ineptitude.

When was the last time that Nelson passed the ball up the court to a breaking teammate, after he collected a defensive rebound? He invariably gets a defensive rebound and then dribbles all the way up the court, then drives to the basket, unless stopped by virtually all 5 opponents gang-tackling him, rugby-style; only then does he (sometimes!) decide to give the ball up to an uncovered teammate. Sometimes, even that scenario is not enough to keep Nelson from forcing up an ill-considered shot against (usually) taller opponents. Occasionally, this drive is concluded by dribbling the ball off his own leg or foot; unfortunately, when he does feel compelled (by the massed bodies of taller opponents) to give the ball up on one of his head-long charges, he is often out of control and ends up passing the ball off the shins or feet of one of his teammates (and out of bounds). Nelson is a virtual black hole when he gets a defensive rebound- the ball goes into his hands, but it never comes back out, except as a shot or a turnover.

Last, on this vaunted defensive skill and quickness that Nelson is alleged to have: to me, Nelson is a classic tweener, but in a different way than Dunleavy, who is too slow to guard the shooting guards and small forwards of the NBA, and not big or powerful enough to guard the power forwards or centers of the NBA. Nelson is too slow to guard the quicker point guards (cf.- Marquette and UNC last season), and he will be too small to guard the shooting guards and small forwards of the NBA, who will be able to match his athleticism, but will be taller by anywhere from 4-6 inches (e.g.- Bryant, James). I was disappointed to see how overmatched Nelson was last year against Lawson; I think Lawson is way overhyped for his quickness- and yet Lawson embarassed Nelson several times last year. (I predict Lawson will be nothing special in the NBA, quickness-wise, and is certainly nowhere near the Iverson, Parker, Van Exel type of quickness that a number of NBA guards possess, but he is too quick for Nelson.)

Mudge:

I'm not quite sure we can count that as an admision of surprise at his improved performance. ;)

s.i.

jimsumner
01-16-2008, 11:19 AM
With friends like this, who needs . . .

FWIW, Nelson is averaging just over three assists per game so I'm pretty sure he does pass the ball once in awhile.

SilkyJ
01-16-2008, 12:21 PM
He still doesn't pass the ball, unless clubbed over the head.

Thats just not true anymore. A significant part of our offense is generated through drive and kicks and demarcus is our best slasher and has really improved his kickouts.

shadowfax336
01-16-2008, 04:52 PM
So I've been slow to give Nelson a break as far as passing goes as well... But the last few games have really opened my eyes. I'm starting to expect him to make the easy kicks out, and am no longer shocked if he makes a tougher one. He's a good enough scorer that its ok if he takes it in most of the time, but it seems that he's finally figured out that his life will be easier if he makes double teamers pay, and its had a huge effect. Combining this with his recent improved foul shooting, he has been our most effective player over these past 3 games and has been playing like a first team all-ACC type. We'll see what happens the rest of the season, but this has been hugely encouraging.

dukepsy1963
01-16-2008, 06:48 PM
Nelson is a smart guy and player. I always depend on him. Thanks Markie for all you do!!!

MikeS
01-18-2008, 04:57 PM
Number 21 has been one of my favorite players to watch in recent years. Not because of just talent but because what he has brought to the team and his toughness. He has also improved more year to year more than any Duke player that I can remember.

My question is, what do you think about his future in the NBA? In terms of height he is undersized for the NBA SG position but he plays like he is 6'6 or above and I think that he can defend most SGs in the NBA because of his quickness and strength. I see him going in the second round, what do you fellas think?

mpj96
01-18-2008, 05:07 PM
Unless he blows up this year I see him going in the second round. He has the quickness, height and length to guard most 2s. If a team gives him a chance with some time on the floor I think he will earn his paycheck.

Whether or not the big league takes him, he makes the all-star team for heart and toughness.

CDu
01-18-2008, 05:08 PM
Number 21 has been one of my favorite players to watch in recent years. Not because of just talent but because what he has brought to the team and his toughness. He has also improved more year to year more than any Duke player that I can remember.

My question is, what do you think about his future in the NBA? In terms of height he is undersized for the NBA SG position but he plays like he is 6'6 or above and I think that he can defend most SGs in the NBA because of his quickness and strength. I see him going in the second round, what do you fellas think?

This was discussed in detail in a previous thread (within the last week or so). If someone could send him a link to that thread, it'd be helpful, and perhaps prevent another long thread on the topic. I'm not good with links, so I apologize. But it shouldn't be too far back in the queue of topics.

Ultimately, the consensus split between those who thought he could make it on defense and those who thought he was too short and too lacking in ballhandling, passing, and shooting touch to make it.

OZZIE4DUKE
01-18-2008, 05:09 PM
My question is, what do you think about his future in the NBA?

Mike, with all due respect, I don't give a flip about his future in the NBA right now. I care about what he'll do for Duke in the next 3 1/2 months.

I'll care about his draft status and pro career after the middle of April.

CDu
01-18-2008, 05:14 PM
MikeS, I just realized you are the new guy. Please don't take my response as a negative toward you, as it certainly wasn't intended that way. Your timing was just a bit off - it was a long discussion after a couple of big games by him. :)

Since it appears that others are responding, I'll give my quick two cents: I think that if he's 6'2" (as I think he his) and not 6'4", he's going to be too small to be a regular SG defensively. And I think he lacks the ballhandling and shooting touch to be a regular SG. So unless he improves greatly as a shooter, I don't think his NBA prospects are good.

Of course, that doesn't mean he can't be very important to this year's team!

yancem
01-18-2008, 06:39 PM
Actually, JWill averaged 21.6 ppg as a sophomore to JJ's 21.8 as a junior.




I'm not sure what your point is. See below.

You said:

jj scored 22 ppg his JUNIOR year. thats more than battier, jwill, brand, laettner, hill, dawkins ever averaged.

While I assume your point was to point out that Redick had already developed into a star by his junior year I simply didn't see 21.8 ppg as a junior being supior to JWill's 21.6 as a sophomore, which the statement also seems to implies. The difference in averages is .00926% which pretty much negligible so while technically correct is a little mis leading. Not rally a big deal just thought I would point out that as Sophomore JWill scored on par with Redick.

greybeard
01-18-2008, 08:02 PM
Last year it seemed to me that he was under direction to take it inside and attack the rim. Duke desparately needed inside play last year and there were times that McRoberts simply could not provide enough. I thought K let DeMarcus know that he needed him to get to the rim to soften the exterior defense.

Also, last year, the game was to run clock. Again, just guessing, but I thought that K's preference was to have more senior players take the shot when the clock was running down and something easy didn't present. In those moments, I thought K preferred that guys like Scheyer NOT be called upon to shoot, and instructed the guys to get the ball into the hands of either DeMarcus or Paulus, if they couldn't get it to McRoberts deep. So again, DeMarcus did what he could, and made late-in-the-clock charges.

This was all guessing on my part, but it made sense to me on a strategic level and my hero worship of K made me want to believe.

I like watching DeMarcus and I always saw in him what I've seen in other Duke leaders, which when it's not pretty I interpret as courageous. Yeah, I Know CDu, I do tend to see some things that are not there but in this case I'd like to think that what I imagine I see is.

CDu
01-18-2008, 09:42 PM
Last year it seemed to me that he was under direction to take it inside and attack the rim. Duke desparately needed inside play last year and there were times that McRoberts simply could not provide enough. I thought K let DeMarcus know that he needed him to get to the rim to soften the exterior defense.

Also, last year, the game was to run clock. Again, just guessing, but I thought that K's preference was to have more senior players take the shot when the clock was running down and something easy didn't present. In those moments, I thought K preferred that guys like Scheyer NOT be called upon to shoot, and instructed the guys to get the ball into the hands of either DeMarcus or Paulus, if they couldn't get it to McRoberts deep. So again, DeMarcus did what he could, and made late-in-the-clock charges.

This was all guessing on my part, but it made sense to me on a strategic level and my hero worship of K made me want to believe.

I like watching DeMarcus and I always saw in him what I've seen in other Duke leaders, which when it's not pretty I interpret as courageous. Yeah, I Know CDu, I do tend to see some things that are not there but in this case I'd like to think that what I imagine I see is.

Actually, I agree with you on this one. ;)