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Jumbo
01-10-2008, 01:09 AM
The most interesting development in this game? So many subs! Duke used its eight-man rotation so many different ways with the absence of Zoubek and Thomas. Duke switched lineups 27 (!) times, including 14 unique groups. Smith saw more time with Paulus than we're used to, and that included several occasions when Scheyer was on the floor with them too. In other words, Duke had three guys who've played point guard on the floor at the same time. On to the numbers...

Individuals
DeMarcus Nelson 70-58 (+12)
Kyle Singler 55-46 (+9)
Greg Paulus 51-43 (+8)
Taylor King 28-20 (+8)
Jon Scheyer 55-51 (+4)
Gerald Henderson 42-38 (+4)
Nolan Smith 42-38 (+4)
David McClure 27-26 (+1)

Per 40 Minutes
Taylor King +26.7
Kyle Singler +13.3
DeMarcus Nelson +13
Greg Paulus +10.7
Nolan Smith +8
Gerald Henderson +6.4
Jon Scheyer +5.3
David McClure +2.1

Lineups
Paulus-Nelson-Henderson-McClure-Singler (x3) 12-7 (+5)
Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-King-Singler (x3) 11-6 (+5)
Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson-King (x2) 8-4 (+4)
Paulus-Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-Singler (x3) 10-7 (+3)
Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-McClure-King 6-3 (+3)
Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson-Singler (x4) 14-12 (+2)
Paulus-Smith-Henderson-McClure-Singler 4-3 (+1)
Smith-Nelson-Henderson-King-Singler 3-3 (0)
Paulus-Nelson-Henderson-McClure-King 0-0 (0)
Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson-King (x2) 0-1 (-1)
Paulus-Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-McClure (x2) 5-7 (-2)
Paulus-Scheyer-Henderson-McClure-Singler 0-3 (-3)
Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-McClure-King 0-3 (-3)
Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson-Singler (x2) 1-5 (-4)

Bob Green
01-10-2008, 05:15 AM
With Zoubek hurt and Thomas sick, we are forced to go small. I would like to see Singler and King on the court together more often. King at the high post and Singler down low. The Smith, Scheyer, Nelson, King, & Singler line-up is intriguing to me. They were +5 against Temple and I would really like to see them play more together.

Jeffrey
01-10-2008, 08:58 AM
The Smith, Scheyer, Nelson, King, & Singler line-up is intriguing to me.

Hi Bob,

Would you like to see that much youth on the floor, at the same time, during the last 5 minutes of a big game?

Best regards,
Jeffrey

Jeffrey
01-10-2008, 09:05 AM
Hi,

Last night's numbers illustrate my concern with this measurement. I thought David was much more valuable to our team last night than these figures imply. I think we might have actually lost the game if David hadn't played.

Jumbo, please do not misunderstand me. I think it's very kind of you to take the time & energy to supply our community with these statistics. I'm only saying that there are definite limits as to what these stats reveal.

Best regards,
Jeffrey

Bob Green
01-10-2008, 02:20 PM
Hi Bob,

Would you like to see that much youth on the floor, at the same time, during the last 5 minutes of a big game?

Best regards,
Jeffrey

Jeffrey,

I would have no problem with those five guys being on the court the last five minutes of a big game. Nelson is our our Senior and team captain. Singler is our most versatile player. We are a young team. The only change I could see in your specific scenario is Paulus for Smith due to Paulus' % from the free throw line.

The key is King & Singler together and if you look at Jumbo's stats King, Singler, Smith have been more effective together than King, Singler, Paulus.

CDu
01-10-2008, 03:02 PM
Hi,

Last night's numbers illustrate my concern with this measurement. I thought David was much more valuable to our team last night than these figures imply. I think we might have actually lost the game if David hadn't played.

Jumbo, please do not misunderstand me. I think it's very kind of you to take the time & energy to supply our community with these statistics. I'm only saying that there are definite limits as to what these stats reveal.

Best regards,
Jeffrey


In a single game, players' plus/minus numbers can be hurt by being on the court during a bad stretch or helped by being on the court during a good stretch. That's one of the understood limitations of looking at single-game plus/minus tallies. With basketball, points can be scored so easily (either way) without a player having any influence. And in a single game, a brief period of time can greatly swing the plus/minus. If a guy is in the game when the point guard commits a few straight turnovers for baskets, it's hard for that guy to make up the difference in his remaining minutes. That's why single-game stats can be tough to accurately interpret.

This game turned largely on a 2-3 minute stretch late in the first half in which Temple committed multiple turnovers which resulted in points. McClure happened to not be on the floor during that stretch. He may have also been on the floor during a particularly bad stretch. For a player like McClure (who isn't an impact offensive player), if our offensive players struggle with turnovers while he's out there, his plus/minus is going to suffer.

All that said, plus/minus shouldn't be intended to answer the question of whether or not the team would have won with/without a player. It can do that sometimes, but that's not the intended value. In McClure's case, his +1 plus/minus indicates that he was a positive value. Moreover, if you take him out of the lineup, everyone else's plus/minus may go down indirectly due to fatigue. So whether or not his plus/minus shows it, McClure may have still played a valuable role.

rtnorthrup
01-10-2008, 03:08 PM
Also recognize that Dave was not in the game during the final minute or so (I'm guessing for free throw shooting purposes only), where we ran off a few meaningless points at the end of the game. Given the small difference between Nelson and McClure to begin with, these 4-5 points make a big difference in his total numbers.

CDu
01-10-2008, 03:22 PM
Also recognize that Dave was not in the game during the final minute or so (I'm guessing for free throw shooting purposes only), where we ran off a few meaningless points at the end of the game. Given the small difference between Nelson and McClure to begin with, these 4-5 points make a big difference in his total numbers.

Very true. The difference between +1 and +12 in a single game can in some cases literally be the difference between one guy being on the floor and one guy being off the floor during a quick 6-0 run.

Truth
01-10-2008, 03:50 PM
Also recognize that Dave was not in the game during the final minute or so (I'm guessing for free throw shooting purposes only), where we ran off a few meaningless points at the end of the game. Given the small difference between Nelson and McClure to begin with, these 4-5 points make a big difference in his total numbers.

While true that McClure was not in the game for the final minute or so, keep in mind that Duke actually did not extend their lead during this period. The "few meaningless points" at the end of the game were mainly scored by Temple as they edged a victory against the 11.5 spread.

Clipsfan
01-10-2008, 04:11 PM
In a single game, players' plus/minus numbers can be hurt by being on the court during a bad stretch or helped by being on the court during a good stretch. That's one of the understood limitations of looking at single-game plus/minus tallies. With basketball, points can be scored so easily (either way) without a player having any influence. And in a single game, a brief period of time can greatly swing the plus/minus. If a guy is in the game when the point guard commits a few straight turnovers for baskets, it's hard for that guy to make up the difference in his remaining minutes. That's why single-game stats can be tough to accurately interpret.

This game turned largely on a 2-3 minute stretch late in the first half in which Temple committed multiple turnovers which resulted in points. McClure happened to not be on the floor during that stretch. He may have also been on the floor during a particularly bad stretch. For a player like McClure (who isn't an impact offensive player), if our offensive players struggle with turnovers while he's out there, his plus/minus is going to suffer.

All that said, plus/minus shouldn't be intended to answer the question of whether or not the team would have won with/without a player. It can do that sometimes, but that's not the intended value. In McClure's case, his +1 plus/minus indicates that he was a positive value. Moreover, if you take him out of the lineup, everyone else's plus/minus may go down indirectly due to fatigue. So whether or not his plus/minus shows it, McClure may have still played a valuable role.

Here's another scenario where plus/minus can be very misleading: Let's assume that our opposition has one stellar player on the team, and we have one guy who is best at guarding him. As such, K only plays our guy when the opposition's best player is out there, so that he can be rested to guard him. Now, despite his presence on defense, the other team is likely to do better with their stud on the court and our excellent defender is likely to have a worse plus/minus than the rest of the team, which would have also played against the opposition's worst lineup. This is just one of many factors/scenarios which in my opinion show that plus/minus shouldn't be viewed as the final word on who is most valuable to the team.

jma4life
01-10-2008, 05:37 PM
Yea, I mean I definitely appreciate the stats and I think that they are very telling over the course of the season.

That said, I found it surprising that yesterday, Henderson and Scheyer had the same plus minus in a game where Henderson had probably his worst game whereas in other games where I have thought that Henderson was outstanding, and Scheyer, mediocre, Scheyer has often times had the much higher positive plus minus than Henderson.

Nonetheless, the stats are interesting and the cumulative is definitely quite informative and telling.