Wishful Thinking???

[CMS2478]

I am hearing a lot about a potential matchup between UNC/Texas, but does anyone other than me think there is a chance that the Tar Holes could possibly bow out in the 2nd round? When I first saw the brackets I remember the first thing I noticed is how the 2nd round could potentially be as hard for Carolina as for us. This may be wishful thinking but they will get the winner of Marquette and Michigan St. which won't be a laugher. I'm guessing Marquette and we have seen what they are capable of personally, but if it is Michigan St. they have beat the likes of Wisconisn this year. I'm not going to guarantee a 2nd round meltdown by Carolina, but I think either one of those teams will give them all they can handle. Someone tell me if I'm wrong here.............I can take it.

[imagepro]

LOL- Yes you can CMS. Take it I mean. But somobody will surely say "YOu can dish it out, but you can't take it!" LOL

But you know, as much as I hate to agree with you again, I think may be right about UNC.

[mus074]

I think Marquette takes out Michigan State pretty easily.

MSU hasn't won a game of significance away from Breslin all year long. Plus, Marq's biggest correlation to defensive efficiency is how much they can turn the other team over. Marq ranks 31st in causing TOs. MSU's offense ranks an abysmal 307th in TO%, and TO%age is relatively highly correlated to their own offensive success. Looks to me like Marq pushes the pace, causes TOs and runs away from MSU. Which is too bad, because I think the MSU half court style and a hot streaking Neitzel could be a bigger stumbling block for UNC than Marq.

Oh well. I have been very, very, very wrong before.

[CMS2478]

You could be right and Carolina might beat them by 20 and then I look stupid. I just know if our seeds were reversed I would feel just as nervous playing either Marquette/Michigan St. in the 2nd round as I would playing Pitt. Guess we will have to wait and see.............:)

[Troublemaker]

Root hard for Michigan St to win. Marquette stands no chance of even threatening UNC because they like to go and up down the court and don't have the size inside to compete with Hansbrough and Wright. On the other hand, Michigan St slows it down and has two huge goons inside who can at least rebound and foul. Drew Neitzel is someone who might catch fire from outside as well. MSU may only beat UNC 1 out of 10 times but I have a hard time imagining Marquette beating UNC even 1 out of 100 times.

[mus074]

Root hard for Michigan St to win. Marquette stands no chance of even threatening UNC because they like to go and up down the court and don't have the size inside to compete with Hansbrough and Wright. On the other hand, Michigan St slows it down and has two huge goons inside who can at least rebound and foul. Drew Neitzel is someone who might catch fire from outside as well. MSU may only beat UNC 1 out of 10 times but I have a hard time imagining Marquette beating UNC even 1 out of 100 times.

Agreed on all counts.

[Classof06]

Agreed. And while UNC might be expected to win the 2nd round game too, looking at the big picture, UNC is going to have to earn a W in every single round. They have the hardest road of any #1 seed by far, and you have to wonder if that is going to affect a team that has had trouble with focus at times throughout the year.

[Twigmas]

I am not super thrilled with our (Carolina's) bracket. I am more hopeful of our ability to stay focused and play as a team after the ACC Tourney. Those three games were probably the best defense we have played all year. Not happy we let State back in the game, but then we closed out unlike against Va Tech in Chapel Hill. I guess we will find out this weekend if this team is peaking or not.

[hurleyfor3]

Hmmm, who would you rather have coaching your tournament team, Izzo or roy.

Al Featherston's verdict that roy, in general, doesn't give a snit about conference tournaments is quite convincing. This may explain why he faceplants in the NCAAs so often. (Remember, he now has two second-round bounceouts with unc.) I'm not so convinced one can have a separate "conference tournament mode" and "NCAA Tournament mode" and be successful in the latter. Having the right mindset for the former prepares a team mentally for the latter IMO.

[CMS2478]

As much as I dislike Carolina I thinked they have a tough road ahead of them to go all the way, but then they have been inconsistent and not really dominating as a #1 seed should be............but although I don't like Carolina I can be civil so good luck and I will be cheering against you as I'm sure you will be against us. :D

[Troublemaker]

UNC has POTENTIALLY a tough road. We'll see if Texas and Georgetown can advance to face them. I hate talking about UNC's tough road because we'll end up jinxing it.

[CMS2478]

You are exaclty right Troublemaker.........sorry. :o

[Dar95]

Root hard for Michigan St to win. Marquette stands no chance of even threatening UNC because they like to go and up down the court and don't have the size inside to compete with Hansbrough and Wright. On the other hand, Michigan St slows it down and has two huge goons inside who can at least rebound and foul. Drew Neitzel is someone who might catch fire from outside as well. MSU may only beat UNC 1 out of 10 times but I have a hard time imagining Marquette beating UNC even 1 out of 100 times.

I disagree with this - UNC has lost this year when teams were able to score with them - no one has beaten them without scoring 80 points. MSU has played at one of the slowest paces of any team in the country, and although Neitzel and Morgan are good offensive players, the rest of their team is offensively challenged. Marquette isn't that big, but they're not tiny, and they are much better equipped to score with UNC. Not to say that they will win, but I think they have a much better shot than MSU.

[Troublemaker]

I disagree with this - UNC has lost this year when teams were able to score with them - no one has beaten them without scoring 80 points. MSU has played at one of the slowest paces of any team in the country, and although Neitzel and Morgan are good offensive players, the rest of their team is offensively challenged. Marquette isn't that big, but they're not tiny, and they are much better equipped to score with UNC. Not to say that they will win, but I think they have a much better shot than MSU.

If you look at efficiency stats (http://kenpom.com/stats.php ), MSU and Marquette are virtually dead even in offense, but MSU has a better defense. Add in the fact that MSU plays at UNC's unpreferred pace and I'd much rather see MSU face UNC. If Marquette could actually score, I'd agree with you but their offense really isn't any better.

[tbyers11]

Root hard for Michigan St to win. Marquette stands no chance of even threatening UNC because they like to go and up down the court and don't have the size inside to compete with Hansbrough and Wright. On the other hand, Michigan St slows it down and has two huge goons inside who can at least rebound and foul. Drew Neitzel is someone who might catch fire from outside as well. MSU may only beat UNC 1 out of 10 times but I have a hard time imagining Marquette beating UNC even 1 out of 100 times.

I've seen both Mich St and Marquette play 3 or 4 times in the last month. I agree with Troublemaker that Mich St would have a much better chance at beating UNC. Marquette loves to run and cause turnovers, but they don't have the bigs to matchup with Hansborough and Wright. Also, one of their best players Jerel McNeal has missed the last few games with a bad thumb on his shooting hand. If he is healthy, they might score a bunch in a track meet, but I don't think they could keep UNC from scoring alot more.

Michigan State has the big bodies (Suton, Gray, Naymick) to bang up front and can slow the pace down significantly and play solid D. However, I don't know if Mich St has enough scoring to hang with UNC, especially at the rate they turn the ball over, to actually win. But if Neitzel is hot and Ellington cold, they would stand a chance if they play good D and keep the pace slow.

[Cameron]

Carolina will be in plenty of trouble if they have to face Michigan State in the Second Round. There were two teams I was very worried about Duke having to face in the First Round had we been given an 8 seed, and those were Arizona and Michigan State. Tom Izzo is a great, great preparation coach and always seems to have his teams ready to play, especially in the NCAAs. We saw it personally in '05. It is true that State had a much more talented set of players that season, but do not underestimate Drew Nietzel and the rest of the Spartans. They have a ton of game and will be ready. Carolina fans should be plenty worried. Much more so than we shoud if we are to meet Pitt in round two, a game we would have a great chance of winning.

[Dar95]

If you look at efficiency stats (http://kenpom.com/stats.php ), MSU and Marquette are virtually dead even in offense, but MSU has a better defense. Add in the fact that MSU plays at UNC's unpreferred pace and I'd much rather see MSU face UNC. If Marquette could actually score, I'd agree with you but their offense really isn't any better.

There is, however, no evidence to support the idea that MSU's pace (one of the slowest in the nation) is UNC's "unpreferred pace". If you average the pace factors in each of their losses, it is higher than their overall pace factor. In each of their losses, they were essentially outscored. The ACC team that tried to slow it down the most, B.C., was unsuccessful twice.

I'm also not sure why it is assumed that you need to be big to beat NC - in fact, I would think the opposite - I would rather guard Wright with a smaller, athletic PF (like Hayward from Marquette) than a big, slow PF (like Naymick/Suton from MSU).