Phase III - 2008

[Jumbo]

We dealt with Phase II of Duke's season in this (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4881) thread. Now it's on to the third segment of the team's development, which we'll define as the Cornell and Temple games, plus the first half of the ACC season (so it ends with the first Carolina game). Once again, here are the key questions that I believe need to be answered as Duke tries to take the next step toward becoming a better team.

First, two holdovers:

*Can Nolan Smith become more confident with the ball?
*Can Jon Scheyer find his place in this offense, and can Coach K find better ways to utilize him?
I've discussed both of those issues at length in the other thread. They haven't changed, so I want to keep them alive for this period.

Now, onto the other stuff:

*Can Kyle Singler become an elite scorer in big games?
This one is on Coach K as much as Kyle, and is fresh in my mind because of the Pitt game. That night, Singler had a distinct matchup advantage over Blair on the perimeter, but Duke rarely got him the ball outside with a chance to create off the dribble. Everyone -- Kyle, Coach K, the rest of the team -- needs to realize that this kid has a distinct matchup advantage most nights. He can take smaller guys down low, beat bigger guys off the dribble and hit a variety of shots from the perimeter. Duke needs to start running more of the offense through Kyle. Is he ready to handle it? Is K ready to make that commitment?

*Can Kyle Singler avoid foul trouble?
The kid has also proven foul prone (although he did an excellent job of playing with four fouls against Pitt). Still, one of the side effects of playing small a lot is that Singler is exposed to more potential fouls. Duke takes a big hit when he's on the bench too long -- he needs to figure out a way to be effective without fouling as often as he has.

*Can Gerald Henderson make his teammates better?
Gerald can get into the lane almost whenever he wants. He can slash, he can make tough shots, he can force defenses to help. But, as I've documented, he does this with his head down. To go from good to great, this is the biggest thing Gerald needs to improve. I know he can do it, because DeMarcus is doing a much better job of seeing the floor this year after bulling his way to the hoop for three seasons. This might be asking too much of Gerald right now, because he's just a sophomore, and this type of stuff is easier to improve during the offseason. But if he can start to make quicker decisions with the ball and hit open teammates off the drive (like he did for Singler's game-tying three against Pitt) Duke will become a much, much, much better team.

*How will Duke handle "big" teams?
Was the Pitt game an aberration? Only time will tell. But, clearly, Duke needs to prove that it can do a better job on the boards against a big, strong frontcourt. Duke did a good enough job guarding guys in the post in that game, but gave up way too many second shots, which negated some excellent D. You can lump any concerns about individual improvement for Thomas and Zoubek into this category. Obviously, this is a critical area of improvement.

*Can Duke generate more offense off its defense? And can the team maintain a fast pace?
Lost in much of the post-Pitt analysis is that Duke forced 22 turnovers, yet only had two fast break points. Duke has to get more easy buckets than that. And that means Duke has to be committed to running -- regardless of the opponent. The pace in that game was often reminiscent of last year. Duke must force the tempo to be a true running team.

*Can Taylor King elevate his play against good teams?
This one is simple. King has been excellent against average or below-average teams. But he has struggled in Duke's toughest games. Can he get his shot off against really good defenders? Can he guard good players? Can he be effective in other ways besides shooting? Now's the time to prove it.

*Can Duke work more movement into its offense?
In certain games -- particularly Pitt -- Duke's spacing has devolved into little more than Henderson and Nelson taking turns going one-on-one against a defender. Just because Duke is spreading the floor to create driving lanes doesn't mean the ball shouldn't move quickly and that players shouldn't cut and screen.

Let's see how these issues shake out over the next 10 games.

[dukestheheat]

jumbo,

you're asking some excellent questions; i'm in the camp that rebounding advantages TO other teams aren't a big deal for Duke this year because we've shown the ability so score so well early this year (example: Pitt game whereby we were outrebounded and only lost by one but really lost due to factors well outside any type of rebounding disadvantage in my opinion..).

so do you believe that we must win at rebounding this year, or at least hold it 50/50? (i don't, but am wondering what you're thinking).

thanks,

dth.

[Jumbo]

jumbo,

you're asking some excellent questions; i'm in the camp that rebounding advantages TO other teams aren't a big deal for Duke this year because we've shown the ability so score so well early this year (example: Pitt game whereby we were outrebounded and only lost by one but really lost due to factors well outside any type of rebounding disadvantage in my opinion..).

so do you believe that we must win at rebounding this year, or at least hold it 50/50? (i don't, but am wondering what you're thinking).

thanks,

dth.

I don't think rebounding is an essential stat. I think Duke can get outrebounded and win, as long as Duke is winning the turnover battle. But Duke still can't get decimated on the boards.

[dukestheheat]

I did think that we were rather soundly outperformed by Pitt on the boards and still managed to lose that game (it was ours to lose) for several other reasons (other than rebounding), so again if we can keep the tempo on the up-side and then hit free throws, make good decisions on shots and keep control of the basketball, as you assert and as we normally do, I think we're looking really good.

dth.

[greybeard]

Terrific service to the board!

Couple of off the cuff thoughts (so what else is new, greybeard, like anybody expects forethought):

1. Sheyer's offense will come around when he has to do less on the defensive boards and less on the defensive end. That means when Lance's ankle is strong. I like what I'm seeing from Lance. I thought his short minutes were the difference in the Pitt game.

2. I get where you are with Henderson. However, in addition to my earlier point that he was I think in the Pitt game trying to score when the rest of the team was stymied, I have two things to add to the mix to think about, in addition to those you raised:
a. I think that he is extremely confindent in his one on one game and we have yet to see anything approaching where he will get with it this season. I think that he might well prove to be as unstoppable as he seems to think he is.

b. I also think that when the wings dribble laterally, they have the freedom to turn the corner if they see a lane to the rim AND are supposed to get there if they can as their first and primary option. Passing the ball only is to happen if there is an easy drop off for a dunk or if you find you cannot get there. I am not saying that this is so, just that I think that it might be, and might partially explain, but not excuse, the head down play that drives Jumbo nuts (appropriately, it seems to me). If I am correct or in the ballpark, the questions I would add are 1, does H make good choices or does he take it to the hoop improvidently at times, and 2, which is where Jumbo is, is he not seeing the floor and not seeing when the odds of him finishing are not there but other attractive options are.

This kid excites me.

3. Jumbo's observations about Singlar identify apt questions and also an underlying dilemma. Lance might help resolve the latter, in which case let's hope that Jumbo's vision of Singlar as the man down the stretch becomes more and more manifest.

Again, I have to say that this was a pro job in all respects. Too bad my boyz from Cornell are up next, especially if K and his boyz read Jumbo's post. :o

[greybeard]

I think it would help if Taylor saw the floor earlier, for a planned short stint, to get his feet wet. The next time, I would commit to giving him some minutes. I have no doubt that he is a gamer and can play with anybody; coming off the bench in a game in which he has not had an influence on tempo and is not a central figure might explain some of the difficulty, especially since the tempo is probably a tad brighter than really suits him. In this case, I put it on the other guys to change tempo, especially the point, to tell Taylor he belongs and that they, the other guys, can and want to dance to a rhythm that suits him. Intuition talking.

[devildeac]

GREAT stuff, Jumbo. Thanks for taking the time to analyze and post. Just the insight I/we had hoped for with your knowledge.

Now, a couple questions:

1. The TO battle is more important than the rebound battle in the Duke scheme and we won it against Pitt, but barely. Did we lose because we only converted their TO's into 2(or was it 4) points or was because we had more TO than we usually do?
2. In another post you said (paraphrasing), we will win if we do not get decimated on the boards. Was this margin simply too much to overcome(39-53, I think) or does it relate to #1 above. And, as a corollary, what does K do to rectify such discrepancies(sorry, that's a third question;) ). Is it simply blocking out better or do we need to go 'big' more often with BZ or send more guys to the glass?

Thanks!

[Bob Green]

*How will Duke handle "big" teams?
Was the Pitt game an aberration? Only time will tell. But, clearly, Duke needs to prove that it can do a better job on the boards against a big, strong frontcourt. Duke did a good enough job guarding guys in the post in that game, but gave up way too many second shots, which negated some excellent D. You can lump any concerns about individual improvement for Thomas and Zoubek into this category. Obviously, this is a critical area of improvement.



The season has had so many positives that it is difficult, at least for me, to pinpoint where we need to improve. The two keys, in my opinion, for success over the next ten games are:

1. Continue all the positives: defensive pressure, Gerald Henderson and DeMarcus Nelson's improved play, Jon Scheyer being a force as the 6th man, three point shooting, bench scoring, etc...

2. Now on to my real point: We need more production from the combination of Lance Thomas and Brian Zoubek. Presently, their numbers combine to 31.7 mpg, 9.6 ppg, and 6.1 rpg. I think we need the two to combine for around 13 to 15 ppg and 10+ rpg. Increased offensive rebounds with points off put backs would be nice.

I thought Zoubek played well the six minutes he was in the Pitt game. He grabbed three rebounds. I'm hoping his performance improves as his physical condition continues to get better.

[slower]

especially about the issues surrounding Nelson and Henderson.

I started keeping track of Duke's shots and possessions at about the 12:00 mark of the second half of the Pitt game. I wanted to note who was making passes and taking shots after the PG (usually Paulus) crossed half-court. By my unofficial tally, more than half of our possessions wound up with either Nelson or Henderson (or in some cases, one would pass to the other) exclusively handling the ball and taking shots, WITHOUT PASSING TO ANY OTHER DUKE PLAYERS. And slightly more than half of those possessions resulted in missed shots or turnovers.

On our last possession of the second half, Henderson dribbled from 13 down to 4 seconds before missing his shot, all while Singler was mismatched on Ramon and calling for the ball.

Now I'm a big fan of both Nelson and Henderson, but I sure hope that some "adjustments" are made in future games.

[Saratoga2]

We dealt with Phase II of Duke's season in this (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4881) thread. Now it's on to the third segment of the team's development, which we'll define as the Cornell and Temple games, plus the first half of the ACC season (so it ends with the first Carolina game). Once again, here are the key questions that I believe need to be answered as Duke tries to take the next step toward becoming a better team.

First, two holdovers:

*Can Nolan Smith become more confident with the ball?


His development is really important to the team going forward. He has both the quickness and the length to be an outstanding defender. He has also shown the ability to get to the basket, and when he does, finish the play. I agree that he still needs more confidence, but given the fact that Paulus had 5 turnovers in the game, we could us Nolan as a serious option and give him more minutes.

Zoubek has such a size advantage in most games that he will get rebounds if used. I am also pleased with his outlet passes that lead to pressure on the opponents defense. One thing he could do a lot better is to be aware of blocking people out with his body. He seemed to be standing in front of the basket with his arms down while Pitt rebounders were getting to the basket unimpeded. When the ball came to him he got it, but he wasn't blocking out very well.

[Jim3k]

Can you say"free throws?" FTs, FTs, FTs

DTH mentioned it in passing, but he's the only one. Look back at the PItt Box and tell me that 14 of 26 (-54%) is good enough to win games. Then notice that 2 more FTs would have won it. 16 of 26 is 61%. Then tell me that 61% is good enough to win against top 20 teams. When you (the collective you) decide to make that argument, I will be happy to sell you the Bay Bridge for $50 and you will be gullible enough to buy it.

Can you say: Improve the FT shooting, fellas?

[Bob Green]

Can you say "free throws?" FTs, FTs, FTs

Can you say: Improve the FT shooting, fellas?

You are 100% correct. Of our ten scholarship players, six are shooting less than 70% from the charity stripe. Only Scheyer, Singler, Smith, and Paulus are shooting better than 70%.

[tommy]

You are 100% correct. Of our ten scholarship players, six are shooting less than 70% from the charity stripe. Only Scheyer, Singler, Smith, and Paulus are shooting better than 70%.

This continues a trend over the last handful of years for Duke. Last year we shot only .689 as a team from the line. In fact, even with the phenomenal JJ Redick on board for four years, over the last 7 years, we've shot over 71% only twice -- .736 in 2003-04 and .761 in 2005-06. We were below 70% not only last year, but in 2000-01 and 2001-02 as well.

[JasonEvans]

To me the great unmentioned in this thread (aside from Jumbo's opening statement) is Jon Scheyer. The kid is an underutilized weapon, IMO. I am not sure if it is the way K is using him or Jon's own reluctance to take a more active role in the offense, but I think he can do much, much more.

Look at his stats-- the kid has clearly learned a great deal about what works and what does not this season versus last.

His shooting percentage is waaay up (46.3% vs 39.8%)
Especially on 3-pointers (44.7% vs. 36.5%)
His rebounding has skyrocketed (5.1 vs. 3.3-- he's our 3rd leading rebounder)
Despite no longer playing any backup PG, his assists are higher (2.4 vs. 1.8)
And his turnovers are lower (1.6 vs. 1.2)
Leading to a team leading 2-1 ATO ratio (vs. 1.17-1 last season)


Scheyer must be more assertive on offense-- he needs to have the ball in his hands to create the way Nelson and Henderson do because he is a much better decision-maker than either of those guys (if Henderson could learn a bit from Scheyer it would be HUGE for Duke). He needs a quicker trigger finger on his shot-- shoot more Jon!!! Please!!

Clearly, Duke is already an excellent team, but I think some steps need to be made to join the next tier where the elite teams are playing (I am talking about Kansas, Carolina, Memphis, and maybe one or two others). We have identified some of those steps-- most notably Singler becoming more aggressive and Henderson making better decisions with the ball. However, I think the step that is most likely to happen is Scheyer becoming more assertive on offense. I think his extensive experience last year and the obvious improvements in his game make him the most likely of the three to make in-season adjustments necessary to help this team reach the next level.

Maybe I am wrong-- I'd certainly love to see any of these guys step up in the subtle but important ways we have all identified. Heck, the other change that could happen that could vault Duke higher would be for Thomas or (less likely) Zoub to emerge as a post threat and better rebounder. Again, I just think the most likely of all these scenarios is for Scheyer to elevate his play.

--Jason "we are oh-so-tantalizingly-close to being a really special club" Evans

[greybeard]

The eyes tell alot, and are tremendous offensive tools. Great defenders read them, the subtler changes. Great offensive players manipulate them, even the subtler changes, to get a false read by the defender, that can lead to a lean, in which case he is beat.

Now, and this would not explain all of it, some offensive players keen on eyes know that most defenders are at a loss somewhat if they can't see them, the offensive player's eyes. Also disarms them. If you ain't looking at the basket, no danger you'll be shooting it. So, you can be on the dribble, usually at a slow speed, looking down, which will tell you exactly how far you are and where the rim is; a quick stop and really keen eyesight permitting you to pick up the rim's exact location while in the air, and you beat even a superior athlete of greater size. Only problem is, in my experience, it works terrfically in the flow of casual runs when you really got it going or in one on one. Personally, for me, it didn't work in the heat of a real contest, even when I was having my way.

Jumbo's on the money here, at least I think. But, what do I know, I think that Henderson might prove to be a scoring phenom. :o

[Bob Green]

To me the great unmentioned in this thread (aside from Jumbo's opening statement) is Jon Scheyer.

--Jason "we are oh-so-tantalizingly-close to being a really special club" Evans


...The two keys, in my opinion, for success over the next ten games are:

1. Continue all the positives: defensive pressure, Gerald Henderson and DeMarcus Nelson's improved play, Jon Scheyer being a force as the 6th man, three point shooting, bench scoring, etc...



Jason, your post is excellent. Jon Scheyer's productivity is awesome and it has the potential to increase as the season progresses. I recognized him as "being a force" in my first post in this thread, but I believe you are accurate with your concern that many Duke fans are overlooking Scheyer.

[jma4life]

I agree with Jason that Scheyer's increased aggressiveness and just overall improvement is the likeliest way this team can improve.

[Classof06]

The season has had so many positives that it is difficult, at least for me, to pinpoint where we need to improve. The two keys, in my opinion, for success over the next ten games are:

1. Continue all the positives: defensive pressure, Gerald Henderson and DeMarcus Nelson's improved play, Jon Scheyer being a force as the 6th man, three point shooting, bench scoring, etc...

2. Now on to my real point: We need more production from the combination of Lance Thomas and Brian Zoubek. Presently, their numbers combine to 31.7 mpg, 9.6 ppg, and 6.1 rpg. I think we need the two to combine for around 13 to 15 ppg and 10+ rpg. Increased offensive rebounds with points off put backs would be nice.

I thought Zoubek played well the six minutes he was in the Pitt game. He grabbed three rebounds. I'm hoping his performance improves as his physical condition continues to get better.

I'm in total agreement with this. This team (especially Singler) needs to start getting production from Lance and Brian. I think it that was quite apparent during the Pitt game and I'm still a bit surprised that Zoubek only played 6 minutes; in the 2nd half we were getting killed on the boards and Zoubek only had 1 foul. I think Duke's fatal flaws right now are in the post and on the boards but I also believe Lance and Brian are capable of making those much less of a concern. I'm confident that Lance's peformance vs. Pitt was due to his injury and I hope I'm right. But the bottom line is that these two need to give the team more than they are right now.

[dw0827]

I agree with Jason that Scheyer's increased aggressiveness and just overall improvement is the likeliest way this team can improve.

This may be a matter of semantics, but . . . I think it is more IMPORTANT to the team that Greg and Lance show some improvement than it is for Scheyer to show improvement . . . but it may be true that it is more LIKELY that Scheyer will show the improvement suggested by these posts before we see the improvements from Greg and Lance.

Whew. I'm exhausted. Gotta rest.

[dukemomLA]

I agree that Jon S. is underutilized. And more importantly agree with Jim3K that FT's and more FT's are one of the answers. This is something that each individual needs to address!!!! Not a coach's problem, but excellence calls for each player to give it more minutes....AFTER practice! It will make the difference in ACC play -- and more importantly when March Madness begins.

This team (with soooo many 'shooters' on the team, they should be hitting FTs at AT LEAST 80%) ..........so GUYS, get with the program.

Again, I LOVE this team. Win or lose, they are exciting to watch and root for. Every day, every minute. But, step it up. Be the team that you can be.

You have the chemistry and fun and drive to be special. Embrace that....and shoot for it all. (....just work on those FTs and the inside game).

[Jumbo]

This team (with soooo many 'shooters' on the team, they should be hitting FTs at AT LEAST 80%) ..........so GUYS, get with the program.

There is exactly one out of 319 Division I teams that shoots over 80% from the line: IUPUI. I'd gladly take 72% or so.

[devildeac]

There is exactly one out of 319 Division I teams that shoots over 80% from the line: IUPUI. I'd gladly take 72% or so.

I am surprised there are THAT many(;) ) with FT>80%. I think the national leader is typically about 77-78%. IIRC, we have 'won'(or perhaps finished 2nd) in the FT 'title' in the last 10-20 years with something close to the 77-78% range. I'm greedy though, Jumbo, I'd take 73-74%(just for a little larger margin of error) :D .

[Charles Wicker]

I like your thoughts Jumbo; particular about Smith being more confident with the ball, as I feel would result in better court balance, more open looks for perimeter oriented players and add to our team "THE THREAT," that's missing. May be a bit much to ask of a freshman, but I believe he can develop into that kind of player for this years team. Again, we may have to lose a battle to win the war in March. Projections: he is Johnny's project, look for rapid improvements to his game and the effect it will have on this team.

Zoubek: at 7 foot, he can be good for something! Jim Valvano was fond of project players, and getting the most out of them. This SOPHMORE McDONALDS ALL AMERICAN, can offer more to this team; we just need to find out HOW!

I like one of the posters who suggested King seeing the floor earlier in games to get his feet wet. I believe we need to shake things up drastically, there's just too much potential on this team, to have a set rotation of players and combination, even at this phase of the season. Let's see what these players can do; again this approach is substantiated by the thought of lose a battle or two, to win the war in March.

Lance should log more minutes and should help sufficiently on the boards and scoring. I'm not that concerned with Gerald and Markie; because they aside from Singler are the strongest with the ball, and they both are better finishers than our other players. I feel that K and Johnny need to find better ways to utilize the skills and abilities of Scheyer. He can do many things well, rebound, see the court well, shoot and is an overall asset to have on the court in terms of his knowledge and awareness of the game. I'm not quite sure of all the minutes he gets; they may be better spent mining and developing other weapons. I don't know about this one.

Coaching staff: I don't know. Coach is heralded as the class act of college basketball,the elite program with a stellar coaching resume. Year in and year out, expectations are high for the program he's built. But the question I'm wondering is; is he being out-coached in some of these key losses? Opposing coaches/teams have figured out how to beat Duke. Can K and Johnny create a strategy to combat this blueprint teams have created. This will be the task they have ahead. I believe they can. Much will depend on his approach toward developing players and the willingness to take risks to see what does and what doesn't work. Coach K is a master coach, and I believe we will see his genius in the work of this team.

[Waynne]

Great post, Jumbo, very thought-provoking, thank you. I think the team is much better than last year's, and that we are witnessing the emergence of at least 4 premier players- Singler, Henderson, Nelson, and Scheyer, with several others hopefully not far behind. The team has the potential to do some serious damage this year, IMO, and I agree with Jumbo and other posters that there are at least 4 keys to its continued development:

1) Integrate Singler better into the offense. He is our best player. He was open at least 3 or 4 times sliding to the basket in the second half of the Pitt game, yet the other players did not seem to be looking for him. Part of the reason is that in the second half Pitt was successful in getting us to play their game, and our offense degenerated into one-on-one basketball. That will not happen as frequently if Singler becomes a focal point of the offense.

2) Increased production from Zoubek and Lance. Zoubs is a project who is not ready for high-level games, but the more playing time he gets, especially against big men, the faster he will develop. He cannot get this experience in practice, because we have no other players his size. Lance is a very good defensive player, but he does not offer much offensively, and his rebounding, the thing we need most from him, has been quite disappointing- 24 rebounds in 199 minutes of playing time simply does not get it done. He has the talent to be a good rebounder, but must work hard on positioning, blocking-out, and following the ball off the rim.

3) Continued development of Smith, who has the skills and athleticism to be an elite player. He has the ability to play in high level games, and we need both his offensive and defensive talent, but he needs to develop confidence and hopefully a swagger so that he can get more PT.

4) Improvement with free throw shooting and rebounding. Shooting 54% from the line and getting out-rebounded 53 to 39 means we cannot play with the big boys and expect to win. Poor FT shooting is usually fatal in close games, and I am not as sanguine as other posters about our lack of rebounding, because it gives our opponents too many second and third chances and disrupts our offense. We have got to improve on both in order to stand a chance of making a deep run.

[dukemomLA]

Haven't seen much on this thread about King Taylor. Personally I LOVE this kid's game! He brings fire and intensity -- and has help create the 'swagger' that sure wasn't there with last year's team.

He reminds me of Boozer in the NBA (....more than his time at Duke). He's a spark that can light a fire. (....and I think he might be the Duke player 'most hated' for this year).

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

Haven't seen much on this thread about King Taylor. Personally I LOVE this kid's game! He brings fire and intensity -- and has help create the 'swagger' that sure wasn't there with last year's team.

He reminds me of Boozer in the NBA (....more than his time at Duke). He's a spark that can light a fire. (....and I think he might be the Duke player 'most hated' for this year).

Look for a different perception of Taylor King about February.

[Jumbo]

[Taylor King] reminds me of Boozer in the NBA (....more than his time at Duke).

I don't understand what you mean by this. Could you explain?

[Jumbo]

Look for a different perception of Taylor King about February.

I don't really understand this either.

[Turtleboy]

This SOPHMORE McDONALDS ALL AMERICAN, can offer more to this team; we just need to find out HOW!
IIRC, Zoubek was not a Mickey Dee.

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

I don't really understand this either.
A previous poster had commented about not seeing much said about Taylor King on this thread. My comment means that I think his game will develop by February or there abouts to a level that will attract much attention and many more comments.

What is your assessment of King?

[MChambers]

I'm in complete agreement with Jumbo on most of these issues, but I think there is one matter that's being overlooked a little bit. That's how successful Duke is in integrating Dave McClure back into the rotation. Our defense has been very good, but McClure has the potential to improve it, if he truly is healthy. (Of course, he's not a strong offensive player.)

[Jumbo]

A previous poster had commented about not seeing much said about Taylor King on this thread. My comment means that I think his game will develop by February or there abouts to a level that will attract much attention and many more comments.

What is your assessment of King?

Well, as I said in the intial post, he's shown that he can light it up against lesser teams, but has really struggled against Duke's top opponents. I think he's a work in progress. At this point in his career, he's still mostly just a spot-up shooter (and a decent defensive rebounder). I hope he can improve in other areas, though I suspect most of that skill development will come during the summer. For now, I'll be happy if he finds away to get off good shots against good teams.

[Jumbo]

I'm in complete agreement with Jumbo on most of these issues, but I think there is one matter that's being overlooked a little bit. That's how successful Duke is in integrating Dave McClure back into the rotation. Our defense has been very good, but McClure has the potential to improve it, if he truly is healthy. (Of course, he's not a strong offensive player.)

I feel like Duke has already integrated McClure back in. That was one of my Phase II concerns, and he played key minutes against Pitt. As you said, the big concern is his health. If he's truly okay, I feel comfortable in his role.

[tommy]

I looked at Jumbo's Phase III things to look for, and based upon the last few games, especially the Clemson game, I see 8 of the 9 have either been accomplished or are being accomplished.

The most exciting one to me is the development of Nolan Smith. I know Paulus does some good things, primarily as a 3 point shooter and makes some gutty plays at the end of games. But I just think we're a stronger team with Nolan out there. He has learned to play with confidence, learned that he is good enough to be out there. His ballhandling is more confident. His shot is more confident. He isn't playing like a scared freshman anymore.

And because some of his tools are just superior to Greg's -- like his ballhandling, his ability to move his feet on defense, his ability to penetrate and make shots for his teammates -- he gives us another guy that the opponent has to worry about, and another way to apply pressure to the opponent's defense, the inability of which in my opinion, is a very big hole in Greg's game . If Greg is a little better stand-up shooter it's not that Nolan can't shoot. And because he brings so much more to the table than just shooting, I think -- and I sense that K is starting to think -- that we're stronger in many respects with Nolan. I wouldn't be surprised to see Nolan continue to take minutes from Greg, and take more and more crunch-time minutes. I just love what this kid brings to the table, and that we've got hopefully three more years of him. Awesome.

[SeattleIrish]

I'm with you, mostly, on this one, Tommy. Early this season, Nolan really looked like a 2 guard when he had the ball - his handle wasn't ACC point-guard material and I sure didn't think it would become so in 1/2 a season.

I'm amazed at his play the last three games; his handle has improved tremendously and you can see the confidence growing. I simply didn't think he would contribute much this year and I was wrong.

Now, I'm not advocating Greg loose minutes, but that's probably because I love his passion and intensity, and I feel for him after all he's been through here. But, it sure is great to have a quality point guard coming off the bench (are there any other teams in the ACC that have TWO McD point guards?).

Great game, Nolan.

s.i.

[Ignatius07]

I also agree with most of what you said. Nolan's ballhandling has seemed to improve dramatically, though I do think Paulus has the clear edge in decision-making at this point. Nolan is also improving with this, but - like most any freshman not named Kyle Singler - offensive decision-making might be the most difficult skill to hone. Also Nolan has a ways to go on his half-court passing skills, but certainly all the physical tools are there and he's starting to realize - as you said - that he deserves to be out there. One thing I disagree with:


I wouldn't be surprised to see Nolan continue to take minutes from Greg, and take more and more crunch-time minutes.

Nolan has already "taken" a bunch of minutes from Greg; case in point being the FSU game went both played 20 minutes. But this isn't a bad thing - remember when we all complained endlessly about our players being too tired for the NCAA Tournament after having played endless minutes? I also think the FSU game illustrates that Coach K is very, very far from giving Paulus's crunch-time minutes to Smith. Paulus was having an awful game, and - much to my surprise - K put him back in with around 4 minutes to play and the game very much in jeopardy. If that wasn't a display of faith in Paulus, I don't know what is. You may see Smith and Paulus out there sometimes in late-game situations (though I think Scheyer and/or D-Marc would have to have fouled out), but it looks like Smith won't be replacing Paulus in that respect any time soon.

[shadowfax336]

You won't find a bigger Paulus fan than me, but Nolan has really won me over. I would love to continue to see a 50/50 split between the two of them, with Paulus starting and finishing (Nolan brings energy off the bench, and still looks like a freshman towards the ends of games, while Paulus is a leader and therefore it is good to have him starting, and as the main page noted, he seems to really step it up at the end of tight games) but Nolan playing significant minutes in the middle. I really liked the way K used them today, giving them both lots of rest so they were fresh to attack and putting them in situations where they're likely to succeed. I think its one of the main reasons we're better late in the game this year. We have energetic solid PG play at all times.

[dukestheheat]

He runs like a deer in the open court; watch the replays of his tomahawk down-the-middle ty lawson worryin ol roy frettin dadgummit hole fans cryin and channelin easy ed cota to slow nolan foot inside the foul line afterburner on THROTTLE UP DUKE and you will move OUT of your seat!

The man turned on the jets just over half-court and that ball was going down soon thereafter; seriously, three quick pumps and he was in the paint! He consumed the basket!

surely, Carolina delenda est and they shiver at the thought of NOLAN SMITH!

dth.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

He runs like a deer in the open court; watch the replays of his tomahawk down-the-middle

The man turned on the jets just over half-court and that ball was going down soon thereafter; seriously, three quick pumps and he was in the paint! He consumed the basket!

Nolan Smith can do things on the drive that Greg Paulus can't even dream about. The speed and elevation are a wonder to behold. And his outside shot has been impressive in the last couple of games.

But I prefer to have Greg Paulus on the court as our point guard to start and finish the games - this year at least. Playing both in the delay would also be a good thing, along with Nelson, Scheyer and Singler, with Henderson next choice when needed due to foul trouble.

[Jumbo]

I'm going to move this thread into my existing Phase III thread (and respond to it when I get a chance), unless there are any objections.

[Bob Green]

Nolan Smith's development is exciting and I believe his role will continue to expand as the season marches forward. However, Greg Paulus brings skills to the court that Duke needs to be successful so he to will continue to play significant minutes. As I've posted before, I like to look at combinations of players. Yesterday, Smith and Paulus combined for 22 points, 7 assists, 2 steals, 2 rebounds, and 4 turnovers in 44 minutes of action. That equates to seriously good point guard productivity.

[Saratoga2]

Nolan Smith's development is exciting and I believe his role will continue to expand as the season marches forward. However, Greg Paulus brings skills to the court that Duke needs to be successful so he to will continue to play significant minutes. As I've posted before, I like to look at combinations of players. Yesterday, Smith and Paulus combined for 22 points, 7 assists, 2 steals, 2 rebounds, and 4 turnovers in 44 minutes of action. That equates to seriously good point guard productivity.

Greg is at a time in his development where he has to realize that trying to make a spectacular play is not always in the interest of the team. The point guard has to value the ball and set up the offense. He is not too old to improve on his problem areas. Look at the improvement that DeMarcus has made in his senior year and you know that players can continue to improve throughout their career.

[mapei]

He runs like a deer in the open court; watch the replays of his tomahawk down-the-middle ty lawson worryin ol roy frettin dadgummit hole fans cryin and channelin easy ed cota to slow nolan foot inside the foul line afterburner on THROTTLE UP DUKE . . . surely, Carolina delenda est . . .

I have no idea what you were trying to say, but I'm enjoying watching Smith's growth as a player. Love his quickness.

[Jumbo]

So, we're five games into Phase III, with five to go. Given that a couple of posters addressed this already, I thought the time was right to see how we were doing in these goals I'd stated.

*Can Nolan Smith become more confident with the ball?
Uh, yeah, you think? Nolan's still got plenty of room for improvement, but there is on doubting the strides he has made in this area. He attacked Clemson's pressure as soon as he entered the game, and that was an early turning point for Duke.

*Can Jon Scheyer find his place in this offense, and can Coach K find better ways to utilize him?
This is getting better, but we're still not all the way there yet. Here's what I like: In the last three games, if Scheyer's jumper hasn't gone down early, he has found other ways to score by attacking the basket. Scheyer is becoming more aggressive. And Coach K -- especially in the FSU game -- has run more stuff through him late.
Still, Duke sticks him in the corner too much. He needs to handle the ball out front more often, with room to operate. I don't know if that fall on Jon or on K. I imagine it's a combo job.

*Can Kyle Singler become an elite scorer in big games?
Elite? Not yet. Clutch? It's sure looking that way. He hit a huge three against FSU. He hit another one against Clemson. I'd really like Duke to post him up more often. I'd like to see Kyle take bigger guys off the dribble more often and get to the line. There's a part of me that wishes he wouldn't settle for so many threes, except he's almost always wide open, and when he misses, the shot is almost always right online -- just a little short. In other words, he isn't far from becoming a really deadly shooter from deep.

*Can Kyle Singler avoid foul trouble?
Any way you slice it, this is still a big problem. Improvement from Dave and Lance, plus the return of Zoubek, will help. Singler's own aggressiveness is part of the problem too -- the kid just doesn't back down. But Duke needs Kyle on the court and he has to avoid the cheap fouls 35 feet from the basket.

*Can Gerald Henderson make his teammates better?
I''m not really seeing it yet. Well, scratch that -- I've seen a couple more flashes lately, especially in the Clemson game. Gerald still drives with his head down, which is a major problem. But he's starting to recognize when other guys are hot and hasn't been as much of a "ball-stopper" in recent games. These are baby steps, and Gerald has a long way to go to maximize his talent and potential in this area. But he seems to be trying.

*How will Duke handle "big" teams?
The Clemson game certainly provided a glimpse. I loved the pressure D. I loved the renewed commitment to running on offense. And I'm not at all worried that Duke's success was a mirage because of particularly good shooting, because most of Duke's shots were WIDE OPEN. As long as Duke can force the tempo, pressure the heck out of the guards and switch actively on D, I can live with a rebonding disadvantage and a few easy buckets for an opposing big man. If Duke plays its style -- and plays it well -- the team can beat anyone on a given night.

*Can Duke generate more offense off its defense? And can the team maintain a fast pace?
I would've said this was still a major concern until the Clemson game. That performance really raised my spirits because, as I mentioned elsewhere, it was a vintage Duke performance in this area. Part of it was the fact that Clemson likes to play fast, too. But I hope that game serves as a lesson to both K and the kids that when they force the tempo, good things happen.

*Can Taylor King elevate his play against good teams?
Yes. He did it against Florida State with some of his best rebounding and defense of the season. He did it reasonably well against UVA. Obviously, he struggled against Clemson. But my only hope for Taylor King this year was that he could develop into a situational player. So, as long as a team doesn't have particularly athletic bigs (like Clemson), I'm a lot more confident that King can hold his own than I was before Phase III.

*Can Duke work more movement into its offense?
This still remains to be seen. The drive-and-kick game can be very effective, and at times you see some excellent ball movement. At other times, Duke stands around too much. The Suns-style offense doesn't involve a ton of cutting or screening without the ball. But Duke is at its best when guys make quicker decisions to pass, drive or shoot. When that happense, that's enough movement to make this system work right.

[Jumbo]

I have no idea what you were trying to say, but I'm enjoying watching Smith's growth as a player. Love his quickness.

I love the way the kid guards people. His offensive improvement is just gravy.

[Saratoga2]

*How will Duke handle "big" teams?
The Clemson game certainly provided a glimpse. I loved the pressure D. I loved the renewed commitment to running on offense. And I'm not at all worried that Duke's success was a mirage because of particularly good shooting, because most of Duke's shots were WIDE OPEN. As long as Duke can force the tempo, pressure the heck out of the guards and switch actively on D, I can live with a rebonding disadvantage and a few easybuckets for an opposing big man. If Duke plays its style -- and plays it well -- the team can beat anyone on a given night.

Against Clemson, the rebounding disadvantage often turned to fast break opportunities against our team. I see it as due to the way we spread to the corners and have at least one of our bigger people in the middle. When the rebound is caught, we have a 3 on 2 disadvantage getting back. In the case of quick threes by Paulus, we had only two of our smaller people back and they couldn't handle the quick strike by Clemson. If we hit a good percentage of our threes and make sure are corners are on the run back on defense when the ball goes up, we concede the rebound but at least are not shorthanded on defense. Any other thoughts?

[CDu]

Greg is at a time in his development where he has to realize that trying to make a spectacular play is not always in the interest of the team. The point guard has to value the ball and set up the offense. He is not too old to improve on his problem areas. Look at the improvement that DeMarcus has made in his senior year and you know that players can continue to improve throughout their career.

I think Paulus has made the adjustment regarding trying to make the spectacular play at this point. His turnovers are WAY down from last year. We rarely if ever see him attempt the spectacular pass these days, and most of his mistakes are at least within the offense.

What we have now is a guy playing entirely within the offense, in a very muted role as point guard. Part of this is that the scheme seems to be more based on passing around the perimeter and on shots or kickouts from slashes to the basket. Another key is that the scheme uses a number of different players to attack from the perimeter, which has de-emphasized the role of the pure point guard and thus takes a lot of the playmaking pressure off Paulus.

The question is whether Paulus can learn how to integrate the passing gifts that made him a high-school All-American while still minimizing the mistakes. This can be very difficult. It's easier to play it safe and protect the ball and avoid turnovers than it is to learn how to make impact passes while still avoiding the turnovers.

[DukeBlood]

I couldnt find your Phase post. Perhaps I just missed it.

My question, When does your Phase IV come out? I believe the last Phase was III. Thanks for your help, and look forward to it.

[Bob Green]

The "Search" function is very useful:

http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5669

[Jumbo]

I couldnt find your Phase post. Perhaps I just missed it.

My question, When does your Phase IV come out? I believe the last Phase was III. Thanks for your help, and look forward to it.

After the UNC game. I figured the third phase was the first game after the long layoff through the first half of the ACC season.

[Jumbo]

Someone asked a few days ago if I'd wrap up Phase III. Now's the time. Remember all the gnashing of teeth after the Pitt game? Remember how worried people were after the layoff and poor performances against Cornell and Temple? That seems so long ago. I'll post a Phase IV version later, but here's a look back. At the issues I identified back then:


*Can Nolan Smith become more confident with the ball?
Without a doubt. He's still inconsistent, but you can't say he's afraid to attack anymore. He averaged 7.6 ppg in Phase III and his FT/3PT shooting both improved. One concern -- he hasn't had an assist in his last three games.

*Can Jon Scheyer find his place in this offense, and can Coach K find better ways to utilize him?
It's still yes/no here. I don't want to go off on a rant here, so suffice it to say that we saw flashes, particularly against FSU, Clemson and UNC. His teammates and coaching staff still need to mae an effort to get him the ball and let him work on the wing, not just the corner.

*Can Kyle Singler become an elite scorer in big games?
He's not "elite" scorer yet. But he's very reliable. Plus, I had been really concerned that Duke wasn't using his perimeter skills to exploit bigs (I commented at length on his lack of attacking DeJuan Blair off the dribble). Last night, Duke made a conscious effort to give the ball to Singler and let him create against Hansbrough. And it worked.

*Can Kyle Singler avoid foul trouble?
This is still a problem. He averaged 3.4 fouls per game during Phase III. But last night was a great step forward -- only three fouls in 37 minutes against an outstanding frontline.

*Can Gerald Henderson make his teammates better?
Let me start by saying I think Henderson is trying to make more of an effort in this area. It's just not a skill that comes natrually, and it's really hard to improve during the season. I expect/hope he'll work on his court vision and passing during the summer. That said, he can still take fewer bad shots and use his ability to beat his man to get better shots for his teammates.

*How will Duke handle "big" teams?
The answer is "well enought to win." As I've been saying all year, there are many ways to skin a cat. If a team wants to get the bulk of his points down low, that's fine. As long as Duke doesn't have multiple players foul out and can exploit those bigs at the other end, we should be fine. And we have been. Size alone can't beat Duke.

*Can Duke generate more offense off its defense? And can the team maintain a fast pace?
Yup! There's something wrong with last night's gamebook -- it has zero fast break points for both teams. But Duke has been playing at a fast pace lately. We're scoring a ton of points. We're forcing 18.6 turnovers against ACC opponents. The worry about a slow-down combined with a return to last year's offensive struggles was short-lived and misguided.

*Can Taylor King elevate his play against good teams?
Not really. At this point, TK is what I thought he'd be coming into the season -- a situational player. That doesn't mean he won't have a role going forward. As someoone (Olympic Fan?) said elsewhere, when Zoubek returns, he and King problem won't make a contribution in a few games, but will then pop up in the right matchup and come up huge. It's great to know that Taylor can go scoreless in two minutes one night (and still win) and that he could just as easily put up 10 points and 15 minutes in his next game. For now, let's consider him an extra post defender and a streak shooter, and take whatever he gives us as gravy. His contributions aren't vital to success, but they make success come easier.

*Can Duke work more movement into its offense?
A little bit. I've come to accept that this offense will naturally involve a ton of screen/roll and iso ball. But Duke has zipped the ball around a big more, and run some more set plays with screens off the ball. Also, the drive-and-kick game has improved dramatically.