Brand, Boozer, Williams

[NYC Duke Fan]

These are the last of their lot at Duke. Why has Coach K been so unsuccessful in recruiting these kind of rugged interior players, or if he is recruiting them why aren't they coming ?

[Patrick Yates]

If you want something that is really depressing, look to UNC. They got Hans, a tough, rugged, bull of a scorer and rebounder. We got McBob, a kid who was afraid to mix it up inside. Under UNC's previous two regimes, that would have been switched. Duke would have gotten the tough beast inside.

They also have Stevenson and Thompson, two players who fit the mold you described, although admittedly, both are far inferior players than any of the three you described.

Sadly, Duke needs a certain type of player for the post. Rugged, rebounding and defensive minded, but capable around the basket as a freshman. Lots of teams would like players like that, teams from schools far easier than Duke.

Duke has had some misses, and those misses have been compounded by various factors. I am getting ready to beat a dead horse here, but, it must be done.

Duke is scary to an incomming frosh big man. Our situation is really unsettled. Singler, who now looks like at least a 2-3 year player, will obviously eat up a lot of minutes. Beyond him, Lance and Zoubs are really enigmatic if you are a potential recruit. It is certainly possible, but not probable, that one or both could significantly improve by next season. If this were to happen, an incomming frosh, unfamiliar with the system, would be left on the bench.

And, please, before the chorus of "we don't want a player who is afraid to compete for minutes" begins, please be realistic. Great players want to come in an play. They are not eager to enter systems where there are already established players at the position. This is epecially true for Big Men, for whatever reason. This isn't true with Guards, as K has shown a willingness to play several guards extensively. Ironically, neither Lance nor Zoubs have exibited play that would scare off a potential recruit, but every decent big that might get into Duke has already signed. At a guess, I would bet that K will sign 2 or so bigs from this year's Jr class, but that will be too little too late for the Singler-Henderson era.

As I stated this summer, I have this overwhelming fear that Lance and Zoubs are just good enough, with enough potential, to scare off recruits, but not good enough for Duke to be a truly dominant team.

For years now, and into the forseeable future, Duke has and will run an extremely guard oriented offense. K's scheme has not keyed on feeding a post player since Brand left. Boozer and Shel made their baskets off of penetration-and-dishes, or rebounding. All while they were in Durham K ran his offense through the guards. Admittedly, in J-Will and JJ, this was probably the right thing to do given their immense talent. But, that made for 7 years where bigs were not the focus of the O. And with recruits today, many of them were 9 or 10 when Brand was here, and they do not remember his greatness, and they do not now associate him with Duke. Same with Boozer, because he was not the focus at Duke, and many pundits are now wondering how a guy so good in the pros was so underutilized at Duke that he went in the 2nd round. These may be unfair, and incorrect, rationalizations and perceptions, but they do exist.

And finally, K had a huge recruiting blunder this summer. For years, K had focused on Greg Monroe as our key recruit from this class. Unfortunately, he was the only post recruit we really focused on. Even when it became obvious that Duke was not a clear cut favorite, which was pretty obvious by June, K never really expanded his search. It was a huge miss, not to mention slap in the face, when he committed to G-town without even visiting Duke, his supposed childhood favorite. This hurt bad, no matter what anyone else says. It is now obvious that while both are borderline-great players, both Kyle and Gerald need at least 1 more year in school. This year would have been great growing experiences for the entire team, with the addition of Monroe sure to make Duke a truly elite squad next year. All we need is one low post player. It didn't have to be Monroe. A big bodied banger content to rebound and D up as a frosh would have done it, but all of Duke's eggs were in one basket.

Sorry to ramble, but I had posted this early this summer. Unfortunately, some of my more dire predictions are comming to fruition.

Patrick Yates

[Devilsfan]

Or "chicklets" a blazin as Bilas affectionately refered to him last night. 20 boards and he didn't get blocked by a guard when taking it up from 2 feet!

[Classof06]

If you want something that is really depressing, look to UNC. They got Hans, a tough, rugged, bull of a scorer and rebounder. We got McBob, a kid who was afraid to mix it up inside. Under UNC's previous two regimes, that would have been switched. Duke would have gotten the tough beast inside.

They also have Stevenson and Thompson, two players who fit the mold you described, although admittedly, both are far inferior players than any of the three you described.

Sadly, Duke needs a certain type of player for the post. Rugged, rebounding and defensive minded, but capable around the basket as a freshman. Lots of teams would like players like that, teams from schools far easier than Duke.

Duke has had some misses, and those misses have been compounded by various factors. I am getting ready to beat a dead horse here, but, it must be done.

Duke is scary to an incomming frosh big man. Our situation is really unsettled. Singler, who now looks like at least a 2-3 year player, will obviously eat up a lot of minutes. Beyond him, Lance and Zoubs are really enigmatic if you are a potential recruit. It is certainly possible, but not probable, that one or both could significantly improve by next season. If this were to happen, an incomming frosh, unfamiliar with the system, would be left on the bench.

And, please, before the chorus of "we don't want a player who is afraid to compete for minutes" begins, please be realistic. Great players want to come in an play. They are not eager to enter systems where there are already established players at the position. This is epecially true for Big Men, for whatever reason. This isn't true with Guards, as K has shown a willingness to play several guards extensively. Ironically, neither Lance nor Zoubs have exibited play that would scare off a potential recruit, but every decent big that might get into Duke has already signed. At a guess, I would bet that K will sign 2 or so bigs from this year's Jr class, but that will be too little too late for the Singler-Henderson era.

As I stated this summer, I have this overwhelming fear that Lance and Zoubs are just good enough, with enough potential, to scare off recruits, but not good enough for Duke to be a truly dominant team.

For years now, and into the forseeable future, Duke has and will run an extremely guard oriented offense. K's scheme has not keyed on feeding a post player since Brand left. Boozer and Shel made their baskets off of penetration-and-dishes, or rebounding. All while they were in Durham K ran his offense through the guards. Admittedly, in J-Will and JJ, this was probably the right thing to do given their immense talent. But, that made for 7 years where bigs were not the focus of the O. And with recruits today, many of them were 9 or 10 when Brand was here, and they do not remember his greatness, and they do not now associate him with Duke. Same with Boozer, because he was not the focus at Duke, and many pundits are now wondering how a guy so good in the pros was so underutilized at Duke that he went in the 2nd round. These may be unfair, and incorrect, rationalizations and perceptions, but they do exist.

And finally, K had a huge recruiting blunder this summer. For years, K had focused on Greg Monroe as our key recruit from this class. Unfortunately, he was the only post recruit we really focused on. Even when it became obvious that Duke was not a clear cut favorite, which was pretty obvious by June, K never really expanded his search. It was a huge miss, not to mention slap in the face, when he committed to G-town without even visiting Duke, his supposed childhood favorite. This hurt bad, no matter what anyone else says. It is now obvious that while both are borderline-great players, both Kyle and Gerald need at least 1 more year in school. This year would have been great growing experiences for the entire team, with the addition of Monroe sure to make Duke a truly elite squad next year. All we need is one low post player. It didn't have to be Monroe. A big bodied banger content to rebound and D up as a frosh would have done it, but all of Duke's eggs were in one basket.

Sorry to ramble, but I had posted this early this summer. Unfortunately, some of my more dire predictions are comming to fruition.

Patrick Yates

It's hard to argue with this, I agree with Patrick. Not getting big men to stay combined with the unfulfilled expectations of Randolph and McRoberts is starting to scare the hell out of me. Wow, does this team need a post presence. If we had a serviceable big man, we're even more of a contender than we already are.

[Patrick Yates]

Go to SI.com and read the write up of the game. Guess where Blair's first choice college would have been?

Duke.

I hate to say it, but we as fans may be responsible for some of K's failings with regards to recruiting.

Stay with me on this.

I recently read about Miami's troubles in FB. The new coach said that under Butch Davis, the coaching staff threw out any so-called rankings or player evaluations. They watched submitted tape, then personally evaluated players, talked to teachers, coaches, and family to establish if the kid was good enough. They bypassed many higher-ranked kids to go after lower ranked kids who were better fits in the mind of the staff.

The result? There was a time right after Davis left when merely being a regular player for the Caines merited first round draft consideration.

When Davis left, the new staff focused on the professionally provided rankings and evaluations, and the team nosedived.

I am starting to see this at Duke. I think there is overwhelming proof now that the McD's processs is seriously flawed, as are all ranking systems. And unfortunately, our staff seems more focussed on getting kid who are highly regarded by those very recruiting services.

I mean, have you read Rivals, Prep-Stars, and Scout.com lately? Virtually all of their rankings talk about how a kid projects to the NBA, or NFL with FB recruits. They ignore how a kid will do in college. Sanders, Boateng, and Thompson were all McD's AAs, and highly regarded, mostly because their size/upside put them on pro rosters in 2-3 years. But that still would have been on potential to the pros, not actual college production.

Also, these rankings are dependant on the local press coverage of a kid when said kid does not play in a traditional hoops hotbead. Tracy McGrady is a great example of this. He is from FL, and was a center on a middling team at a smallish HS in a football mad area. They didn't care about HS hoops AT ALL. He gets an injury invite to the Addidas camp, and look at him now. He might have ended up at UCF or South FL if not for that last second invite.

A kid like Blair played in a town where FB was KING. No one, and I mean no one, cares about hoops. He suffers in the summer because he is from an area without a lot of hoops talent, so his AAU team is weak because he has weak teammates. Without prototypical size, the recruiting services ignore him. And guess what, he WILL have trouble in the pros. Once you distill the PF talent down into 20-30 teams, there are a bunch of athletic 6-9 to 6-11 guys that will wear Blair out on both ends. Blair will never be a superstar in the pros. After 3 or so years at Pitt, but probably 4, he can be a servicable pro so long as he shores up his D and FT shooting.

He has little upside from a pro prospective. No all-star potential. He will never average 20+ ppg in the pros. Just a quality journeyman, which is nothing to sneeze at.

But his value to a college is immense. He is the type of guy who can get you a double double for 3 or more years. See Tyler Hans. Not much value to the pros, but if they win a NC, he may well get his jersey retired at UNC.

We, as fans, are as much to blame for Duke's recruiting as K. Well, almost. We, and I have been at the forefront of this, want McD's All-americans to crow over to other fans. But that selection process is seriously flawed. Hugely flawed. I love Tyler King, but is he a better player than Blair, or that massive center at Texas A&M? No. He had a great HS career, but he was at a national power surrounded by Div 1 talent playing a national schedule. His rep was bigger. He will be a fine player for us, but he is no patch on a Blair, or a Ginyard, or a Green or a Costner or McCauley, just to name a few triangle competitors.

K needs to get back to work evaluating talent. He has to stop relying on recruiting services. I mean, had he offered Blair, the kid would have committed without ever visiting Duke. I am sure this is true of many kids who are under the radar. Folks, the Radar is malfunctioning. It is time to think outside the player rankings.

Patrick Yates

[Uncle Drew]

If you want something that is really depressing, look to UNC. They got Hans, a tough, rugged, bull of a scorer and rebounder. We got McBob, a kid who was afraid to mix it up inside. Under UNC's previous two regimes, that would have been switched. Duke would have gotten the tough beast inside.

They also have Stevenson and Thompson, two players who fit the mold you described, although admittedly, both are far inferior players than any of the three you described.

Sadly, Duke needs a certain type of player for the post. Rugged, rebounding and defensive minded, but capable around the basket as a freshman. Lots of teams would like players like that, teams from schools far easier than Duke.

Duke has had some misses, and those misses have been compounded by various factors. I am getting ready to beat a dead horse here, but, it must be done.

Duke is scary to an incoming frosh big man. Our situation is really unsettled. Singler, who now looks like at least a 2-3 year player, will obviously eat up a lot of minutes. Beyond him, Lance and Zoubs are really enigmatic if you are a potential recruit. It is certainly possible, but not probable, that one or both could significantly improve by next season. If this were to happen, an incoming frosh, unfamiliar with the system, would be left on the bench.

And, please, before the chorus of "we don't want a player who is afraid to compete for minutes" begins, please be realistic. Great players want to come in an play. They are not eager to enter systems where there are already established players at the position. This is especially true for Big Men, for whatever reason. This isn't true with Guards, as K has shown a willingness to play several guards extensively. Ironically, neither Lance nor Zoubs have exhibited play that would scare off a potential recruit, but every decent big that might get into Duke has already signed. At a guess, I would bet that K will sign 2 or so bigs from this year's Jr class, but that will be too little too late for the Singler-Henderson era.

As I stated this summer, I have this overwhelming fear that Lance and Zoubs are just good enough, with enough potential, to scare off recruits, but not good enough for Duke to be a truly dominant team.

For years now, and into the foreseeable future, Duke has and will run an extremely guard oriented offense. K's scheme has not keyed on feeding a post player since Brand left. Boozer and Shel made their baskets off of penetration-and-dishes, or rebounding. All while they were in Durham K ran his offense through the guards. Admittedly, in J-Will and JJ, this was probably the right thing to do given their immense talent. But, that made for 7 years where bigs were not the focus of the O. And with recruits today, many of them were 9 or 10 when Brand was here, and they do not remember his greatness, and they do not now associate him with Duke. Same with Boozer, because he was not the focus at Duke, and many pundits are now wondering how a guy so good in the pros was so underutilized at Duke that he went in the 2nd round. These may be unfair, and incorrect, rationalizations and perceptions, but they do exist.

And finally, K had a huge recruiting blunder this summer. For years, K had focused on Greg Monroe as our key recruit from this class. Unfortunately, he was the only post recruit we really focused on. Even when it became obvious that Duke was not a clear cut favorite, which was pretty obvious by June, K never really expanded his search. It was a huge miss, not to mention slap in the face, when he committed to G-town without even visiting Duke, his supposed childhood favorite. This hurt bad, no matter what anyone else says. It is now obvious that while both are borderline-great players, both Kyle and Gerald need at least 1 more year in school. This year would have been great growing experiences for the entire team, with the addition of Monroe sure to make Duke a truly elite squad next year. All we need is one low post player. It didn't have to be Monroe. A big bodied banger content to rebound and D up as a frosh would have done it, but all of Duke's eggs were in one basket.

Sorry to ramble, but I had posted this early this summer. Unfortunately, some of my more dire predictions are coming to fruition.

Patrick Yates

While I have been pleased and almost amazed at how well this years team has been playing. Last night showed what can happen when another team truly goes at Duke's main weakness. Granted Lance was still hurting, and Zoubek and Lance have both shown improvement. But when we missed out on Monroe and some of us said the sky was falling, I'm pretty sure I saw a cloud hit the MSG floor last night. And with all due respect DeJuan Blair is a freshman and not really all that big. I'm picturing our next bout with Hansblahblah or a NCAA match up against Kevin Love and it makes me cringe.

Monroe is more of a big man in the role of McRoberts and we all would like to see a true in the post big man ink with Duke. And I don't want ANY present players to transfer, but you look at the guys we have and the only ones who might consider early NBA entry are Henderson or Singler. In some years a player might figure that player A or player B might leave early and free up future playing time. Any true post presence looks at this roster and knows with the exception of probably two guys everyone is a four year player. I know, I know....darn we have players that are going to stay four years, poor Duke fans, poor Duke. I just can't truly understand why we can ink guards and small forwards left and right. But rebounding post guys take their services elsewhere.

Truth be told Laettner, Ferry, McRoberts, Brand, Boozer and Sheldon Williams were all by NBA (and Final Four) standards power forwards. In my book the last great Duke true center was Gminski. (Yes I haven't forgotten about Abdelnaby and Greg Newton.) Sure how many schools get a big Shaquille O'Neal type bruiser? And for that matter how many of those guys could pass a class in basket weaving at Duke? I love this teams depth at four positions and Coach K proved he isn't past his time by revamping the offense and defense this year. This team is much better at taking the ball to the hole and until the second half of last night I would have said their defense had improved. But when a guy penetrates you need a competent guy to pass it off to under the basket when help comes over or get the rebound if he misses. This team has a ton of scoring ability, and it looks great when the shots are falling. But when Jon Scheyer is your leading rebounder (Which I was very impressed with by the way!) that really, really doesn't look good for games like February 6th.

[DevilCastDownfromDurham]

Prolly worth mentioning that we did bring in 4-5 top-5 post studs in the last 6 years (Shel, Shav, Hump, McSobberts, Kyle). We also brought in several top 30-40 "backups" (MT, Boat, Boykin, Lance). We've missed on a few as well (Kaun, Brockman, PPat, Monroe) but that's always been the case.

Our problem, IMO, isn't recruiting, it's talent evaluation and player support. We still bring in guys every bit as highly-rated as any school in the nation. We do, however, seem to have a nose for soft, injury-prone players and malcontents. Of those above, we got +1 healthy season from Shel(4), McBob(2), and Lance(2). Hump, MT, Boat, and Boykin all found something about Duke unacceptable and left us. That, IMO, is the problem, not recruiting.

[bdh21]

We are recruiting Echinique hard for the 09 class. He is the kind of stocky post player and rebounder that people around here seem to think we need.

http://duke.scout.com/a.z?s=167&p=8&c=1&nid=2383054

[mr. synellinden]

But when we missed out on Monroe and some of us said the sky was falling, I'm pretty sure I saw a cloud hit the MSG floor last night.

Can we all just relax here? We lost by 1 in OT. Yes we got hammered on the boards but we also did a pretty good job on the boards against three big teams that people said would give us trouble - Marquette, Illinois and Wisconsin. We also won all of those games.

We went to the final four with John Smith and Robert Brickey playing the post for us. Guys like Blair aren't just out there for the picking - there are not many quality big men. Yes we missed out on Patterson and Brockman and Monroe and we MIGHT be btter with Patterson this year and Monroe next year. But if Singler does in fact stay 3 years, we will be a consistent top 5 team for a while. And if we don't win a national title in the next three or four years, we will be like 295 or so other teams and we will be a team we are all proud to root for.

The glass is more than half full.

[Troublemaker]

PY, your posts are so long and fraught with poor assumptions.


If you want something that is really depressing, look to UNC. They got Hans, a tough, rugged, bull of a scorer and rebounder. We got McBob, a kid who was afraid to mix it up inside. Under UNC's previous two regimes, that would have been switched.

Actually, Doherty recruited Sean May.



Duke is scary to an incomming frosh big man. Our situation is really unsettled. Singler, who now looks like at least a 2-3 year player, will obviously eat up a lot of minutes. Beyond him, Lance and Zoubs are really enigmatic if you are a potential recruit. It is certainly possible, but not probable, that one or both could significantly improve by next season. If this were to happen, an incomming frosh, unfamiliar with the system, would be left on the bench.

Really not digging the whole "if LT and Z improve, it's bad for Duke" logic, especially since I really disagree that any big men recruits fear LT and Z. And especially since any '09 recruits would only have a 1 year overlap with them.


And, please, before the chorus of "we don't want a player who is afraid to compete for minutes" begins, please be realistic. Great players want to come in an play.

I think that's true for every player.


They are not eager to enter systems where there are already established players at the position. This is epecially true for Big Men, for whatever reason.

I follow recruiting and haven't noticed this being especially true for big men.


At a guess, I would bet that K will sign 2 or so bigs from this year's Jr class, but that will be too little too late for the Singler-Henderson era.

That basically just contradicted everything you said previously. If Duke can sign 2 good bigs from '09, then it seems they weren't afraid of LT and Z at all.


As I stated this summer, I have this overwhelming fear that Lance and Zoubs are just good enough, with enough potential, to scare off recruits, but not good enough for Duke to be a truly dominant team.

I thought Duke was going to sign 2 from the junior class? And again, I find it very, very unlikely that any recruit is scared off by LT and Z.


And with recruits today, many of them were 9 or 10 when Brand was here, and they do not remember his greatness, and they do not now associate him with Duke.

Your boy (and my boy) Dejuan Blair specifically mentioned Brand being his favorite player from Duke.


Same with Boozer, because he was not the focus at Duke, and many pundits are now wondering how a guy so good in the pros was so underutilized at Duke that he went in the 2nd round. These may be unfair, and incorrect, rationalizations and perceptions, but they do exist.

Check Boozer's numbers and tell me his draft stock fell because he was underutilized. Was it true that he was only one of several good players on those Duke teams? Yes, but it's somewhat ridiculous to suggest that a player with his numbers on a consistently nationally televised team like Duke had his stock fall because of utilization. Scouts certainly had enough film on him. Their concern was his athleticism.


It didn't have to be Monroe. A big bodied banger content to rebound and D up as a frosh would have done it, but all of Duke's eggs were in one basket.

I thought LT and Z were going to improve? Enough to scare off big men recruits. But I guess not enough to just be a "big bodied banger content to rebound and D up"

[Troublemaker]

We, as fans, are as much to blame for Duke's recruiting as K. Well, almost. We, and I have been at the forefront of this, want McD's All-americans to crow over to other fans.

You should probably speak for yourself there.


But that selection process is seriously flawed. Hugely flawed. I love Tyler King, but is he a better player than Blair, or that massive center at Texas A&M? No. He had a great HS career, but he was at a national power surrounded by Div 1 talent playing a national schedule. His rep was bigger. He will be a fine player for us, but he is no patch on a Blair, or a Ginyard, or a Green or a Costner or McCauley, just to name a few triangle competitors.

Why are you comparing King to Blair? They are completely different players. And I'm pretty sure Duke's logic in recruiting King wasn't "He's going to be a McDonald's All-American." That's terrible. It was more like "We like great shooters."


K needs to get back to work evaluating talent. He has to stop relying on recruiting services.

Can you even begin to substantiate that last statement???????


I mean, had he offered Blair, the kid would have committed without ever visiting Duke.

This one, too???????????????

[Uncle Drew]

"Guys like Blair aren't just out there for the picking - there are not many quality big men."


Ummm, did you read this from Patrick? "Go to SI.com and read the write up of the game. Guess where Blair's first choice college would have been?

Duke."

Look mr. synellinden, don't get me wrong there are 200+ schools that would love to have this Duke team suit up for them. (And probably a few NBA teams too.) And of course the glass is half full from most any angle you want to look at it. Will Duke win the majority of their games, yes. Will they probably make the NCAA tournament, sure. Heck, will they be fun if not interesting to watch all year long, yeah.

We as Duke fans are spoiled and our expectations are perhaps too high every season. For the record THIS Duke team has already passed my expectations. If you'd told me this team would win their first 10 games and lose their 11th to a top 10 team in over time by one point I would have advised you to seek therapy and perhaps submit urine for a drug test. But at the same time, yesterday and in the weeks before posters had this team winning it all, achieving a #1 ranking / seed and beating UNC two or three times this year. Hey it's possible all that could still take place. Patrick and myself are just pointing out the obvious black hole Duke started the season out with that Coach K has done a masterful job of making look like a pin hole. I love optimists like yourself, they keep the world moving forward and focused on the positive things in life. But as a perfectionist pessimist I'm the type that makes the world never get complacent and satisfied. We're both going to watch every game all year long and have a lot of fun hoping for the best. All I'm saying is I wouldn't make any reservations for April in San Antonio just yet.

[Memphis Devil]

To think that if Scheyer had hit one of his two attempts to win the game last night, this thread wouldn't even be here. You (PY & Latta) can't sign every good big man in the country. Had we even signed Blair this site would probably have been littered with threads about "Why are we signing 6'7 300+ pound Forward?" And the two of you would probably have been leading the charge. Who could have predicted that Blair would lose 40+ lbs and be dominant in the post? Believe me more coaches miss on the talented overweight big hoping he will lose a few lbs. and maintain his dominance. You two make me ill with your pessimism and complaints. Would it be nice to have a dominant power forward/center that was a sure fire NBA All-Star? Of course, but how many are out there? Bigs traditionally take more time to develop and in most cases it is kind of a guessing game. Even the NBA gets it wrong a lot.

I am going to go throw up now. Disgusting!

[greybeard]

Patterson made a huge and incomprehensible misstake. Period.

Had he come to Duke, this team would be awesome, and he would have had a terrific, terrific experience.

Who would have predicted he'd go to Kentucky. That one hurt.

McRob's year K had two bona fides bigs. One got impatient, and the other got injured. I think that McRob's career at Duke would have lasted longer and been much, much more productive and enjoyable on all sides were if not for that injury.

If McRob did not have that back and it's short half life to worry about, I think that he would have been back this year. If that was the case, Duke would be the odds on favorite to take it all.

I don't know much about the guy who left, even his name, but I bet a nickel he wishes he hadn't. If he developed as expected, we probably also are not having this conversation.

[Uncle Drew]

To think that if Scheyer had hit one of his two attempts to win the game last night, this thread wouldn't even be here. You (PY & Latta) can't sign every good big man in the country. Had we even signed Blair this site would probably have been littered with threads about "Why are we signing 6'7 300+ pound Forward?" And the two of you would probably have been leading the charge. Who could have predicted that Blair would lose 40+ lbs and be dominant in the post? Believe me more coaches miss on the talented overweight big hoping he will lose a few lbs. and maintain his dominance. You two make me ill with your pessimism and complaints. Would it be nice to have a dominant power forward/center that was a sure fire NBA All-Star? Of course, but how many are out there? Bigs traditionally take more time to develop and in most cases it is kind of a guessing game. Even the NBA gets it wrong a lot.

I am going to go throw up now. Disgusting!

You have fun with that anorexia thing you have going on. Now that we're past all that explain how it's a positive when a 6'7" FRESHMAN forward pulls down 20 rebounds against Duke. Granted they are a top ten team, and that freshman was under everyones radar. (For the record Elton Brand was under the radar for the most part until his Sophomore and only full season in college.) And the past 10 years 90% of the tall bigmen have been going straight to the NBA, many times a huge mistake for their short bench riding NBA careers. Duke was after Ousmane Cisse a few years back, who opted to go pro and ended up being a bust. He for one probably could have used a few years at Duke but went straight for the money.


I'll let Patrick speak for himself, but when it comes to the type of recruits Duke has gone after it often looks like they have sought out finesse more than strength. A PRIME example is McRoberts the #1 rated recruit in his class and an all around really good player. In the very same class UNC got a commitment from Hansblahblah, a top 25 even top 10 guy, but a TOTALLY different type of player. Could Duke have gotten him, did they even go after him and would that have affected attaining McRoberts? I have no idea and hindsight is always 20/20. All I know is McRoberts is now riding an NBA bench for a team of scrubs. (They didn't get the #1 over all pick for being good.) And I've watched Hansblahblah run over Dukes inside players like a bull in a china shop for three years. He will probably contend for player of the year honors in the ACC and nationally and my money is on him staying all four years. Shavlik Randolph was another example of a tall finesse guy who shied away from contact. Duke release Chris Humphries from his letter of intent (and probably rightfully so) but he went on to lead his team in scoring and rebounding as a freshman.


I question and I think Patrick questions how Duke can ink so many awesome guards / small forwards with finesse games. But for whatever reason wide body, rebounding, tall centers / power forwards seem to shy away from Duke. I have no idea if Boateng will ever end up being decent, but he'll never been a rebounding machine for Duke. Remember the Final Four game against UCONN when Emeka Okafor was in foul trouble but still managed to hang in there and beat Duke? Why couldn't Duke get him (other than possibly grades) and did they recruit him at all? Duke got reamed by Patrick Patterson last year and though most of us feel like good riddance, any intelligent person has to ask why not Duke? Again if Duke has not had a dominant CENTER (and we know Coach K tends to use a FFGGG system) since Mike Gminski, I for one wonder why.

[weezie]

To think that if Scheyer had hit one of his two attempts to win the game last night, this thread wouldn't even be here. You (PY & Latta) can't sign every good big man in the country. Had we even signed Blair this site would probably have been littered with threads about "Why are we signing 6'7 300+ pound Forward?" And the two of you would probably have been leading the charge. Who could have predicted that Blair would lose 40+ lbs and be dominant in the post? Believe me more coaches miss on the talented overweight big hoping he will lose a few lbs. and maintain his dominance. You two make me ill with your pessimism and complaints. Would it be nice to have a dominant power forward/center that was a sure fire NBA All-Star? Of course, but how many are out there? Bigs traditionally take more time to develop and in most cases it is kind of a guessing game. Even the NBA gets it wrong a lot.

I am going to go throw up now. Disgusting!


Clap, clap, clap. Standing ovation!

[bdh21]

All I know is McRoberts is now riding an NBA bench for a team of scrubs. (They didn't get the #1 over all pick for being good.)

That team of scrubs has won 9 straight games. None of those games were against the T'wolves either.

[Oriole Way]

If you want something that is really depressing, look to UNC. They got Hans, a tough, rugged, bull of a scorer and rebounder. We got McBob, a kid who was afraid to mix it up inside. Under UNC's previous two regimes, that would have been switched. Duke would have gotten the tough beast inside.

They also have Stevenson and Thompson, two players who fit the mold you described, although admittedly, both are far inferior players than any of the three you described.

Sadly, Duke needs a certain type of player for the post. Rugged, rebounding and defensive minded, but capable around the basket as a freshman. Lots of teams would like players like that, teams from schools far easier than Duke.

Duke has had some misses, and those misses have been compounded by various factors. I am getting ready to beat a dead horse here, but, it must be done.

Duke is scary to an incomming frosh big man. Our situation is really unsettled. Singler, who now looks like at least a 2-3 year player, will obviously eat up a lot of minutes. Beyond him, Lance and Zoubs are really enigmatic if you are a potential recruit. It is certainly possible, but not probable, that one or both could significantly improve by next season. If this were to happen, an incomming frosh, unfamiliar with the system, would be left on the bench.

And, please, before the chorus of "we don't want a player who is afraid to compete for minutes" begins, please be realistic. Great players want to come in an play. They are not eager to enter systems where there are already established players at the position. This is epecially true for Big Men, for whatever reason. This isn't true with Guards, as K has shown a willingness to play several guards extensively. Ironically, neither Lance nor Zoubs have exibited play that would scare off a potential recruit, but every decent big that might get into Duke has already signed. At a guess, I would bet that K will sign 2 or so bigs from this year's Jr class, but that will be too little too late for the Singler-Henderson era.

As I stated this summer, I have this overwhelming fear that Lance and Zoubs are just good enough, with enough potential, to scare off recruits, but not good enough for Duke to be a truly dominant team.

For years now, and into the forseeable future, Duke has and will run an extremely guard oriented offense. K's scheme has not keyed on feeding a post player since Brand left. Boozer and Shel made their baskets off of penetration-and-dishes, or rebounding. All while they were in Durham K ran his offense through the guards. Admittedly, in J-Will and JJ, this was probably the right thing to do given their immense talent. But, that made for 7 years where bigs were not the focus of the O. And with recruits today, many of them were 9 or 10 when Brand was here, and they do not remember his greatness, and they do not now associate him with Duke. Same with Boozer, because he was not the focus at Duke, and many pundits are now wondering how a guy so good in the pros was so underutilized at Duke that he went in the 2nd round. These may be unfair, and incorrect, rationalizations and perceptions, but they do exist.

And finally, K had a huge recruiting blunder this summer. For years, K had focused on Greg Monroe as our key recruit from this class. Unfortunately, he was the only post recruit we really focused on. Even when it became obvious that Duke was not a clear cut favorite, which was pretty obvious by June, K never really expanded his search. It was a huge miss, not to mention slap in the face, when he committed to G-town without even visiting Duke, his supposed childhood favorite. This hurt bad, no matter what anyone else says. It is now obvious that while both are borderline-great players, both Kyle and Gerald need at least 1 more year in school. This year would have been great growing experiences for the entire team, with the addition of Monroe sure to make Duke a truly elite squad next year. All we need is one low post player. It didn't have to be Monroe. A big bodied banger content to rebound and D up as a frosh would have done it, but all of Duke's eggs were in one basket.

Sorry to ramble, but I had posted this early this summer. Unfortunately, some of my more dire predictions are comming to fruition.

Patrick Yates


I really agree with you here, Patrick.

K's biggest flaw recruiting-wise over the past few years has been failing to go after true low-post players besides his top targets. The recruit that got away that really stings is Patrick Patterson. With Patterson, not only do we win the game last night, we're probably the best team in the country, at least certainly capable of countering UCLA's Love and UNC's Hansbrough. Monroe was a more baffling case, but based on evaluations it seems like he will float more on the perimeter than bang inside. Patterson's a pure post-player, a great rebounder who can score when he's fed the ball and shoot for a high percentage. I believe he's shooting 67% for Kentucky, and he's getting a decent amount of touches per game. You put him on this Duke team, and we're lethal.

One promising thing about the Albany game was that K was really trying to develop Zoubek by giving him big minutes in the second half. I think K knows he needs a low post force, but unfortunately Thomas and Zoubek might not be ready to do what it takes to make Duke a final four team until they're seniors, if at all.

Definitely frustrating because we have so many talented pieces. I'd hate to see Singler and Henderson leave without making it to a championship game.

[cspan37421]

Remember the Final Four game against UCONN when Emeka Okafor was in foul trouble but still managed to hang in there and beat Duke? Why couldn't Duke get him (other than possibly grades)

Okafor graduated UConn with a 3.8 GPA and a finance major. If anything, we should have got him specifically because of his grades.

[pfrduke]

In the very same class UNC got a commitment from Hansblahblah, a top 25 even top 10 guy, but a TOTALLY different type of player.

I take no position on either side of this thread in general, but Psycho T was the # 2 rated recruit to come to college that year, behind McRoberts (he was #4 overall, also behind Monta Ellis and Martell Webster - and actually, both he and McRoberts would have been behind Gerald Green except that one service inexplicably decided not to rank him). No one had him outside the top 10 - he was a stud recruit from the start, not just a bruiser who blossomed. IIRC, there was a Carmel-Poplar Bluff nationally televised high school game that year to feature a McRoberts-Hansbrough matchup.

edit: in case anyone needs documentation: 2005 final ratings (http://home.nc.rr.com/rsci/RSCI_100_Final_2005.htm).

[dukie8]

If McRob did not have that back and it's short half life to worry about, I think that he would have been back this year. If that was the case, Duke would be the odds on favorite to take it all.

why would a team that couldn't even win a single ncaat game last year be the "odds on favorite to take it all" this year? vegas isn't that irrational.

[dukie8]

You have fun with that anorexia thing you have going on. Now that we're past all that explain how it's a positive when a 6'7" FRESHMAN forward pulls down 20 rebounds against Duke. Granted they are a top ten team, and that freshman was under everyones radar. (For the record Elton Brand was under the radar for the most part until his Sophomore and only full season in college.) And the past 10 years 90% of the tall bigmen have been going straight to the NBA, many times a huge mistake for their short bench riding NBA careers. Duke was after Ousmane Cisse a few years back, who opted to go pro and ended up being a bust. He for one probably could have used a few years at Duke but went straight for the money.

blair was ranked 40th in the country. that's not exactly flying under the radar.

http://home.nc.rr.com/rsci/RSCI_100_Final_2007.htm

also, how was brand flying under the radar when he was a mcd aa and first team parade aa coming out of high school? yes, he was hurt for a lot of his freshman year, but he also pumped in 20 points and 14 rebounds in the sweet 16 that year? what radar system are you using?

[Uncle Drew]

That team of scrubs has won 9 straight games. None of those games were against the T'wolves either.

That may be true. But the fact they have done it without McRoberts (or Oden for that matter) doesn't say much for his decision to enter the pros. And it will be interesting to see if a possible over .500 record is enough to keep them in Portland.


Okafor graduated UConn with a 3.8 GPA and a finance major. If anything, we should have got him specifically because of his grades.

Thank you CSPAN, I had no idea what his GPA was but your information impresses me that much more so and makes me ask the question why did Duke not go hard after Okafor. (If they actually did.) And the bigger question, did he or would he have considered Duke and if not why?


I take no position on either side of this thread in general, but Psycho T was the # 2 rated recruit to come to college that year, behind McRoberts (he was #4 overall, also behind Monta Ellis and Martell Webster - and actually, both he and McRoberts would have been behind Gerald Green except that one service inexplicably decided not to rank him). No one had him outside the top 10 - he was a stud recruit from the start, not just a bruiser who blossomed. IIRC, there was a Carmel-Poplar Bluff nationally televised high school game that year to feature a McRoberts-Hansbrough matchup.


PFR, thank you for properly getting the final rankings, and as I stated he was a top 10 guy. I get Dave Teleps (sp) recruiting quarterly and their Sophomore year McRoberts was already top 10 if not at the top. Hansblahblah was on the radar for a lot of schools, but not top ten quite yet and I know UNC was one of, if not the first to offer him. Regardless, if Duke was able to reel in the #1 guy, was their any interest in Hansblahblah from Duke or visa versa? And we all know Duke makes EARLY projections of whom it will focus recruiting on. This just backs up what Patrick was saying about assessment of talent / style of play. I can honestly say Hansblahblah will in my mind go down as one of the UNC players I have despised most. (And that's a long freakin' list!!!) But he's the kind of player if he's on your team you love to have. I'll give another example of a UNC player that turned out better than advertised and that was Antawan Jamison. When that freshman class came in all the talk was about Carter, but Jamison in most everyones eyes was the better college player. As to whether he had the GPA to attend Duke you'll have to ask CSPAN about that.

also, how was brand flying under the radar when he was a mcd aa and first team parade aa coming out of high school? yes, he was hurt for a lot of his freshman year, but he also pumped in 20 points and 14 rebounds in the sweet 16 that year? what radar system are you using?



It's flying under the radar when you are the third most hyped recruit in your incoming class. (Perhaps 4th behind Avery?!) But then we know how Burgess turned out and it took Battier a couple of years to become the "Who's your daddy, Battier" he did. I will say a lot of "insiders" at the time were saying Brand could be the best in the bunch, and certainly from a NBA aspect he was. (Which a ton of recruiting analysis's are based on.) This also backs up Patrick's statement and thinking about how so called rankings are often not a true judgment in talent. Anyone here think Burgess was deserving of the #1 ranking out of high school now? Looking back Battier was probably a little less polished and over ranked playing in a day school league. (I don't care if Chris Webber did go to the same school!) Burgess' ranking was based a lot on potential and his height and girth. He wasn't a skinny 6'10" / 6' 11". I will make one correction to my statement however and say Cherokee Parks, though on a losing team in a really bad year was pretty dominant as a center his senior year. Eric Meeks never lived up to his high rating, mostly due to injuries.


blair was ranked 40th in the country. that's not exactly flying under the radar.


Look I am thrilled to the freakin' gills with this years freshman class. Every player has exceeded all expectations I could have had for them and I look forward to watching them as long as they wear a Duke uniform. But we were all disappointed and irked when Patterson shunned us for UK. Yeah it's easy to say good riddance and don't let the doorknob hit you in the rear. But if a good rebounder plan was player A in Patterson why wasn't there a plan B in Blair. (Patterson waiting until the last minute REALLY pigeon holed Duke!!!!!)And perhaps player B knowing he was a Duke fan should have been plan A to start with? I'll give one more example to make my point. Several years back I was glad to find out a guy named Casey Sanders had given a verbal agreement to come to Duke. He was considered raw with athletic ability and a huge upside. When Duke got their verbal from him it meant their plan B, Nick Collison ended up playing for Old Roy at Kansas. And his senior year their team beat JJ's freshman squad in the NCAA's to keep Duke from making the final four. Before and after the game Collison remarked how he'd wanted to go to Duke but signing Sanders meant he had to select from choices B, C and D. It was pretty low class to call Duke out like that. But there is no doubt in my mind on a night when JJ couldn't hit the broad side of a barn, if Collison had been wearing a Duke Jersey instead of a Kansas jersey, well.....Duke wouldn't have been playing Kansas they would have been playing someone else and Duke probably would have won.

[Ben63]

...But how many are out there? Bigs traditionally take more time to develop and in most cases it is kind of a guessing game. Even the NBA gets it wrong a lot. ...

Absolutely agree with you here. Good bigs are so hard to come by sometimes the ones we think will be great will not turn out to be what we thought they were (insert Denny Green joke here) and the ones that fly under the radar end up being studs. It's a fact of life that this happens. So few super hyped players turn out their full potential. One of the only ones in the last 5 years was LeBron James. Oden certainly did the job in college but is missing his 1st NBA season. We'll see how he turns out.

Also, for all of you who complain about the boards being pessimistic and unrealistic, chill out. IMO, we as message boarders (??) live for the hypothetical and the speculation and if you don't like it a message board isn't the place for you.

[Memphis Devil]

It's not that the pessimism bothers me so much. Hey, the glass half-empty guys are the "ying" to the glass half-full guys "yang". I just don't see the point of shoulda-woulda-coulda. Why not just pick a year when we did not win the title, name the best player at a position where we were weak and question why we did not get this guy?

[Uncle Drew]

It's not that the pessimism bothers me so much. Hey, the glass half-empty guys are the "ying" to the glass half-full guys "yang". I just don't see the point of shoulda-woulda-coulda. Why not just pick a year when we did not win the title, name the best player at a position where we were weak and question why we did not get this guy?

It would be easy to go back every year from 1986 to the present since Duke has regained it's status and become the juggernaut of a program it has and point out players Duke didn't get or could have used. That really isn't the point of the whole post in my opinion. The problem is in recent history Duke has not had a dominant true center. And I agree with anyone who says true centers are hard to evaluate and often take MUCH longer to develop. I see improvement in Zoubek from last year to this year. Heck I see improvement most every game from the guy, and you can tell he is truly trying. At his height the only things he is actually lacking is a little more strength and some more fluid footwork. But his footwork has improved ten fold from last year so again I compliment his improvement in that area.

Here's the thing, after Avery left we had J. Williams to be the penetrating guard then came Dockery. Paulus is an excellent point guard but dribble penetration is an area he needs to work on. Nolan Smith comes in and fills that role and I have been mega impressed with his all around game. Then you can trace Brand to Boozer to S. Williams to be a rebounding power forward. Lance isn't in that mold yet due to strength issues mostly, but he is coming along and I hope his ankle doesn't slow down his development. You can name a ton of really good shooting guards and small forwards one after the other who have put on a Duke jersey. One of Dukes strengths is the "tweeners" who are either taller or quicker and cause match up problems.

All I'm asking is how UNC is able to reel in Eric Montross / Tyler Hansblahblah type players like they are growing on trees? (Even subbing a 6'11" guy for a 6'10" guy.) Why is Georgetown suddenly a hot bed for big men again after being down for quite a while? UNC has always had height / rebounding at the center and power forward positions. (I'd give a kidney to have a ref that will call over the back in the last 30 Duke vs UNC games.) Dean believed you can't teach height, and if Zoubek gets some bulk on him he's going to make us all proud(er). The so called gurus of the basketball world say Duke, UNC et al "select" they don't recruit which is true to some extent but no school gets every guy the want. But how many years since 1986 has Duke gotten a letter of intent from the best post BIG MAN that actually attended college? Laettner and Ferry were more tall power forwards, and yes I would have taken their games over a dominant center any day! When Patrick says having one big man already in the stable deters other big men from inking with Duke, I think he may be right. Maybe it's a symptom of todays society / player that they don't want to compete for playing time. Perhaps projects like Boateng think they are going to get immediate playing time and don't want to wait until it's their time to shine.


With the constant TV coverage Duke gets, I for one think top flight big men should be salivating to put on a Duke jersey. It seems we're having to beat away shooting guards and small forwards with a stick.

[Troublemaker]

True centers don't thrive in Duke's system because we rely heavily on quickness both defensively and offensively. Duke has certainly inked highly-ranked true centers before, but for the most part, they've turned out to be disappointments. Boateng, Thompson, Sanders, and Domzalski, for example. I would much rather have a highly-ranked PF because those guys fit Duke's system better.

[AluminumDuke]

Or "chicklets" a blazin as Bilas affectionately refered to him last night. 20 boards and he didn't get blocked by a guard when taking it up from 2 feet!

For all of those in this thread criticizing Duke for not having recruited Blair, are any of you aware of his academic status? I don't claim to know whether he could meet Duke's academic requirements or not, but to assume that he could without any information to that effect is unfair to both the coaching staff and our players (who do meet those requirements).

[dukie8]

We went to the final four with John Smith and Robert Brickey playing the post for us.

excuse me? you conveniently omitted the fact that there also were not 1 but 2 6'10" guys on those teams. ever hear of a mr ferry and a mr abdelnaby? in 1989 you also can toss in the 6'10" mr laettner.


Guys like Blair aren't just out there for the picking - there are not many quality big men.

apparently guys just like blair, as in blair himself, was just right out there for duke picking. duke, for whatever reason, turned him away. it's not like he was some super recruit that everyone was after. he was a virtual unknown and then finished as the 40th rated prospect in his class. there are a ton of big guys out there who can bang, play some d and rebound. they might not be a mcd aa in high school or an aa in college, but they sure could help out this year's team without scoring a single point.


Yes we missed out on Patterson and Brockman and Monroe and we MIGHT be btter with Patterson this year and Monroe next year. But if Singler does in fact stay 3 years, we will be a consistent top 5 team for a while.

based on what? we are nowhere near a top 5 team this year. memphis, unc, ucla, texas and kansas are at an entirely different level. i'd like to see that we can get back to being a constant in the top 5 in the coming years but that is going to take a lot of different factors to work in our favor so to be predicting that we are going to be a consistent top 5 team for years to come is just plain silly.


Can we all just relax here? We lost by 1 in OT. Yes we got hammered on the boards but we also did a pretty good job on the boards against three big teams that people said would give us trouble - Marquette, Illinois and Wisconsin. We also won all of those games.

marquette is big? their starting 5 against us was 6'8", 6'6", 6'5", 6'3" and 5'11"

[Troublemaker]

apparently guys just like blair, as in blair himself, was just right out there for duke picking. duke, for whatever reason, turned him away.

I don't think there was any communication between Duke and Blair. I think Duke targeted other guys and never recruited Blair at all. (Which sucks because he's very good but then again, we have no clue what his academic situation was like).



he was a virtual unknown and then finished as the 40th rated prospect in his class. there are a ton of big guys out there who can bang, play some d and rebound. they might not be a mcd aa in high school or an aa in college, but they sure could help out this year's team without scoring a single point.

Blair is actually much better than the kind of role player you're describing. To me, his combination of feet, hands, reach, smarts, skill, and attitude makes him one of the top freshmen in this very deep and very good freshmen class nationally. The point is, if Duke missed the boat on him, then so did everyone else because he could help out anyone, not just Duke.

As for just needing a big guy to play D and rebound, I'm not counting out the Zoubek/Thomas tandem yet.



based on what? we are nowhere near a top 5 team this year. memphis, unc, ucla, texas and kansas are at an entirely different level.


You really believe that? I'd be willing to wager you that Duke will end up being seeded and advancing as far or farther than at least two of those teams in March.

[dukie8]

You really believe that? I'd be willing to wager you that Duke will end up being seeded and advancing as far or farther than at least two of those teams in March.

i'd like to take a friendly wager on that (and be wrong). memphis and unc are virtual locks for 1 seeds. texas and kansas basically cancel each other out for a 1 seed (there's no way that the big 12 gets 2 1s) so 1 of the 2 won't be a 1 seed. if ucla is the best team in the pac-10, then they will get a 1 seed over wash st. they have the most work ahead of them because they have not looked good and the pac-10 is very good this year.

gtown needs to do A LOT of work to get in the 1 seed picture after scheduling a joke of a pre-conf schedule and then getting smashed by memphis today. the only other teams that could potentially get a 1 seed are michigan st (but the big 10 is simply terrible this year) and then texas a&m, tennessee, pitt or wash st if they more or less run the table, which i don't see happening.

how the original 5 teams do in the tournament is anyone's guess.

my guess is that duke will be a 2 or 3 seed. a 2 if they can win all the gams in cis (including unc) and only lose 3 on the road in the acc. they will slip to a 3 if they start dropping home games and lose more than 3 on the road. fortunately, the bottom half of the acc is looking particularly bad this year (did maryland really lose to american at home today?). how far duke goes will depend entirely on the match-ups. a 6 or 7 seed, which likely will be the opponent in the 2nd round, with a penetrating pg and some bulk inside easily could give this team fits and upset it.

[AtlDuke72]

Go to SI.com and read the write up of the game. Guess where Blair's first choice college would have been?

Duke.

I hate to say it, but we as fans may be responsible for some of K's failings with regards to recruiting.

Stay with me on this.

I recently read about Miami's troubles in FB. The new coach said that under Butch Davis, the coaching staff threw out any so-called rankings or player evaluations. They watched submitted tape, then personally evaluated players, talked to teachers, coaches, and family to establish if the kid was good enough. They bypassed many higher-ranked kids to go after lower ranked kids who were better fits in the mind of the staff.

The result? There was a time right after Davis left when merely being a regular player for the Caines merited first round draft consideration.

When Davis left, the new staff focused on the professionally provided rankings and evaluations, and the team nosedived.

I am starting to see this at Duke. I think there is overwhelming proof now that the McD's processs is seriously flawed, as are all ranking systems. And unfortunately, our staff seems more focussed on getting kid who are highly regarded by those very recruiting services.

I mean, have you read Rivals, Prep-Stars, and Scout.com lately? Virtually all of their rankings talk about how a kid projects to the NBA, or NFL with FB recruits. They ignore how a kid will do in college. Sanders, Boateng, and Thompson were all McD's AAs, and highly regarded, mostly because their size/upside put them on pro rosters in 2-3 years. But that still would have been on potential to the pros, not actual college production.

Also, these rankings are dependant on the local press coverage of a kid when said kid does not play in a traditional hoops hotbead. Tracy McGrady is a great example of this. He is from FL, and was a center on a middling team at a smallish HS in a football mad area. They didn't care about HS hoops AT ALL. He gets an injury invite to the Addidas camp, and look at him now. He might have ended up at UCF or South FL if not for that last second invite.

A kid like Blair played in a town where FB was KING. No one, and I mean no one, cares about hoops. He suffers in the summer because he is from an area without a lot of hoops talent, so his AAU team is weak because he has weak teammates. Without prototypical size, the recruiting services ignore him. And guess what, he WILL have trouble in the pros. Once you distill the PF talent down into 20-30 teams, there are a bunch of athletic 6-9 to 6-11 guys that will wear Blair out on both ends. Blair will never be a superstar in the pros. After 3 or so years at Pitt, but probably 4, he can be a servicable pro so long as he shores up his D and FT shooting.

He has little upside from a pro prospective. No all-star potential. He will never average 20+ ppg in the pros. Just a quality journeyman, which is nothing to sneeze at.

But his value to a college is immense. He is the type of guy who can get you a double double for 3 or more years. See Tyler Hans. Not much value to the pros, but if they win a NC, he may well get his jersey retired at UNC.

We, as fans, are as much to blame for Duke's recruiting as K. Well, almost. We, and I have been at the forefront of this, want McD's All-americans to crow over to other fans. But that selection process is seriously flawed. Hugely flawed. I love Tyler King, but is he a better player than Blair, or that massive center at Texas A&M? No. He had a great HS career, but he was at a national power surrounded by Div 1 talent playing a national schedule. His rep was bigger. He will be a fine player for us, but he is no patch on a Blair, or a Ginyard, or a Green or a Costner or McCauley, just to name a few triangle competitors.

K needs to get back to work evaluating talent. He has to stop relying on recruiting services. I mean, had he offered Blair, the kid would have committed without ever visiting Duke. I am sure this is true of many kids who are under the radar. Folks, the Radar is malfunctioning. It is time to think outside the player rankings.

Patrick Yates

The assumptions made in this quote are astounding. I would be curious to know the source of your claim that Coach K has stopped evaluating talent and relies on recruiting services. Patrick Patterson was not highly rated when Duke started recruiting him. Czyz has never been highly rated. Duke lost out on Patterson and Monroe, but I hate to tell you that there are some other great programs and options for this type of talent and nobody gets them all. Are there three freshman at any school in the country that you would trade for Singler, Smith and King? Elliott Williams looks to be a super talent as well. The team is 10-1 and looks to have a decent chance to go to the final four. The sky is falling mentality in this posting is hard to stomach. Zoubek and Thomas were not McDonald All Americans and seem to fit the description of the type of recruit you you suggest Duke should be recruiting. Enough of this baloney is enough!

[Jumbo]

Sadly, Duke needs a certain type of player for the post. Rugged, rebounding and defensive minded, but capable around the basket as a freshman.

I don't have the stamina to read through this whole thread at the moment. But please tell me that someone has reminded Mr. Yates that Duke managed to win back-to-back national titles without anything resembling that type of player. In fact, for most of K's career, the stereotypical Duke big man was "tall, lanky white dude who plays inside-out."

PY, did you just forget about the pre-Brand era, or were you not following Duke back then?

[mepanchin]

Now that we're past all that explain how it's a positive when a 6'7" FRESHMAN forward pulls down 20 rebounds against Duke.

To be fair, DeJuan Blair is a rebounding prodigy and has been all season. He came in to the Duke game with the 2nd highest offensive rebounding rate in all of Division I, and his rebounding rates (both offensive and defensive) are much higher than Hansbrough's. Or Hibbert's. He's a better offensive rebounder than Love, or Beasley, or even Joey Dorsey. At least, thus far in the season. He may be 6'7", but he has a massive wingspan and huge, powerful hands.

In a lot of ways, Blair is a unique defensive talent. Not only is he a spectacular rebounder on both sides of the court, he also has one of the highest steal rates in the country (and its evident why after the Duke game - he has incredibly quick hands), and a high block rate as well (which will probably get better as he gets in better shape and improves his athleticism).

What Blair did against Duke is what Blair will be doing all year. Consider that he averaged 9 rebounds a game playing about 22 minutes a game on average with games being about 66 possessions. Against Duke, the game was 73 possessions and went into overtime, and Blair played 35 minutes. So yeah, he outperformed his average rates by a bit, but it wasn't exactly a breakout freakish performance by a nobody. Blair is a rebounding freak.

The way I look at it, despite Blair's performance, Duke was in good position to win. We had several open looks rim out, missed way too many free throws, had a couple looks at the end of the game to win it, but didn't. Wouldn't it have been much worse if we had played our best, shot really well when we had open shots, and still lost?

[Uncle Drew]

To be fair, DeJuan Blair is a rebounding prodigy and has been all season. He came in to the Duke game with the 2nd highest offensive rebounding rate in all of Division I, and his rebounding rates (both offensive and defensive) are much higher than Hansbrough's. Or Hibbert's. He's a better offensive rebounder than Love, or Beasley, or even Joey Dorsey. At least, thus far in the season. He may be 6'7", but he has a massive wingspan and huge, powerful hands.

In a lot of ways, Blair is a unique defensive talent. Not only is he a spectacular rebounder on both sides of the court, he also has one of the highest steal rates in the country (and its evident why after the Duke game - he has incredibly quick hands), and a high block rate as well (which will probably get better as he gets in better shape and improves his athleticism).

What Blair did against Duke is what Blair will be doing all year. Consider that he averaged 9 rebounds a game playing about 22 minutes a game on average with games being about 66 possessions. Against Duke, the game was 73 possessions and went into overtime, and Blair played 35 minutes. So yeah, he outperformed his average rates by a bit, but it wasn't exactly a breakout freakish performance by a nobody. Blair is a rebounding freak.

The way I look at it, despite Blair's performance, Duke was in good position to win. We had several open looks rim out, missed way too many free throws, had a couple looks at the end of the game to win it, but didn't. Wouldn't it have been much worse if we had played our best, shot really well when we had open shots, and still lost?


Yeah I guess Blair was under recruited and under rated by everyone. I think Linda Blair got more recruiting interest from schools than he did. But that's only because she got so much hang time, even if it was over a bed while vomiting pea green soup.

And you are absolutely right that Duke didn't play anywhere near it's best and still managed to only lose by 1 to a top 10 team in over time. I've never said it's time to abandon ship, and I don't think anyone else has either. As losses go this was about as quality a loss as you can get. And if nothing else it should keep this team humble and hungry.


Posted by Jumbo: I don't have the stamina to read through this whole thread at the moment. But please tell me that someone has reminded Mr. Yates that Duke managed to win back-to-back national titles without anything resembling that type of player. In fact, for most of K's career, the stereotypical Duke big man was "tall, lanky white dude who plays inside-out."

PY, did you just forget about the pre-Brand era, or were you not following Duke back then?


I think we all know that Jumbo, and no Duke fan would have traded Laettner for any player in America. (Not even Shaquille O'Neal!) The last time I saw a player of his ilk was, well Laettner. (Before him Danny Ferry but he didn't have Laettners killer instinct.) Someone else pointed out tall true centers have never fit well into Coach K's system, and I can't argue with history. (Martin Nestle) But you and I both have seen Duke play physical teams and Duke get man handled here and there. When the refs let em' play I've seen Duke get mugged because finesse basketball doesn't match up very well with brute strength. I just remember certain games where stumble bum gangly tall guys (Warren Martin, Brian Bersticker, Brendan Haywood etc.) used their height (usually going over the back with no call) to get rebounds / put backs. So in your opinion when Duke seeks out a big man, they look for mobility 1st, wide bodies 2nd and height 3rd? (Scratch that intelligence / grades 1st!) All I'm saying is the closer you play to the basket, the higher your shooting percentage is apt to be and the more rebounds you are likely to pull down. I do think Duke can and will offset a lack of a dominant center this year a lot with having so many players who can nail a three pointer. But on a cold shooting night like Thursday there's no better way to heat a team up than get it to your big man and letting him slam it home a couple of times. It opens things up for everyone.

[AtlDuke72]

To be fair, DeJuan Blair is a rebounding prodigy and has been all season. He came in to the Duke game with the 2nd highest offensive rebounding rate in all of Division I, and his rebounding rates (both offensive and defensive) are much higher than Hansbrough's. Or Hibbert's. He's a better offensive rebounder than Love, or Beasley, or even Joey Dorsey. At least, thus far in the season. He may be 6'7", but he has a massive wingspan and huge, powerful hands.

In a lot of ways, Blair is a unique defensive talent. Not only is he a spectacular rebounder on both sides of the court, he also has one of the highest steal rates in the country (and its evident why after the Duke game - he has incredibly quick hands), and a high block rate as well (which will probably get better as he gets in better shape and improves his athleticism).

What Blair did against Duke is what Blair will be doing all year. Consider that he averaged 9 rebounds a game playing about 22 minutes a game on average with games being about 66 possessions. Against Duke, the game was 73 possessions and went into overtime, and Blair played 35 minutes. So yeah, he outperformed his average rates by a bit, but it wasn't exactly a breakout freakish performance by a nobody. Blair is a rebounding freak.

The way I look at it, despite Blair's performance, Duke was in good position to win. We had several open looks rim out, missed way too many free throws, had a couple looks at the end of the game to win it, but didn't. Wouldn't it have been much worse if we had played our best, shot really well when we had open shots, and still lost?

I agree with everything in this post. Blair is phenomenol and nobody saw this in him last year. Otherwise everybody in the country would have been beating his door down. Who could know that he would lose 30 pounds and be a beast? I think it shows how hard it is to predict which guys will be the stars. For example, which of the zillion 6'8" 210 pound guys are going to develop into the rebounding studs that everybody wants? What the team needs is to borrow the retrospectroscope that PY and Latta use to criticize the coaching staff with for not having spent their time recruiting whomever happens to be this years surprise.

[Carlos]

I take no position on either side of this thread in general, but Psycho T was the # 2 rated recruit to come to college that year, behind McRoberts (he was #4 overall, also behind Monta Ellis and Martell Webster - and actually, both he and McRoberts would have been behind Gerald Green except that one service inexplicably decided not to rank him). No one had him outside the top 10 - he was a stud recruit from the start, not just a bruiser who blossomed. IIRC, there was a Carmel-Poplar Bluff nationally televised high school game that year to feature a McRoberts-Hansbrough matchup.

edit: in case anyone needs documentation: 2005 final ratings (http://home.nc.rr.com/rsci/RSCI_100_Final_2005.htm).

Green wasn't rated by HoopScoop because he was a 5th year prep and Clark Francis doesn't rate those guys. Ironically, Francis will rate a 5th grader (no, really, he does that) but he won't include a guy going to prep school.

[Carlos]

I'm a believer in the idea that Duke needs to broaden their targeting of big men but the idea that not recruiting Blair was a mistake only holds up with the benefit of retrospect.

In that HS class Duke went after Kevin Love, Blake Griffin, Gary Johnson, and Patrick Patterson. Things looked really great with Love for a long time until the whole Nike flap blew up and Duke decided to move on with Griffin and Patterson as the primary targets. Unfortunately Duke struck out on both guys but at the time Blair, even though he may have loved Duke, wasn't exactly a really attractive guy because -


He was 6-7 and almost 300 lbs.
He was coming off from surgeries for torn ACL's in BOTH knees.
He played for the Pittsburgh JOTS, an AAU team that's coached by J.O. Stright who openly calls Bob Huggins a good friend. He was also once very close to John Calipari. Make of that what you will.

[jimsumner]

Carlos is correct, as usual. There were concrete reasons why Duke didn't target Blair.

Okafor? Barely ranked in top 100 in high school. He WAS under the radar, developed spendidly at UConn, give credit where it is due.

Elton Brand was a consensus top-five recruit coming out of high school. Chris Burgess may have more highly-ranked going into their senior years but nobody would have ranked Burgess ahead of Brand at the end of that year. Brand was ranked than higher than Battier by many recruiters. He was the ACC's preseason ROY for 1997-98 and likely would have won that award had he not broken his foot. I cannot put this more emphatically. He was NOT under anyone's radar.

"why would a team that couldn't even win a single ncaat game last year be the "odds on favorite to take it all" this year? vegas isn't that irrational."

Odds on might be an exaggeration but not by much. The return of a focused, committed McRoberts would have meant Duke was returning every recruited player from last season and adding three prep A-A, including Singler. I'm more than familiar with the concept of addition-by-subtraction. Note my qualifiers at the beginning of this paragraph. But if Josh wanted to come back and play hard, team ball, then Duke wanted him back and that would have been a formidable team on paper and I suspect a top-3 team pre-season.

[dukie8]

Carlos is correct, as usual. There were concrete reasons why Duke didn't target Blair.

Okafor? Barely ranked in top 100 in high school. He WAS under the radar, developed spendidly at UConn, give credit where it is due.

Elton Brand was a consensus top-five recruit coming out of high school. Chris Burgess may have more highly-ranked going into their senior years but nobody would have ranked Burgess ahead of Brand at the end of that year. Brand was ranked than higher than Battier by many recruiters. He was the ACC's preseason ROY for 1997-98 and likely would have won that award had he not broken his foot. I cannot put this more emphatically. He was NOT under anyone's radar.

anyone who actually thinks that brand was "flying under the radar" AFTER his freshman season either (1) didn't follow duke basketball in 1998 or (2) also thinks that j rose and j howard were flying under the radar in 1991.

[Uncle Drew]

Carlos is correct, as usual. There were concrete reasons why Duke didn't target Blair.

Okafor? Barely ranked in top 100 in high school. He WAS under the radar, developed spendidly at UConn, give credit where it is due.

Elton Brand was a consensus top-five recruit coming out of high school. Chris Burgess may have more highly-ranked going into their senior years but nobody would have ranked Burgess ahead of Brand at the end of that year. Brand was ranked than higher than Battier by many recruiters. He was the ACC's preseason ROY for 1997-98 and likely would have won that award had he not broken his foot. I cannot put this more emphatically. He was NOT under anyone's radar.

"why would a team that couldn't even win a single ncaat game last year be the "odds on favorite to take it all" this year? vegas isn't that irrational."

Odds on might be an exaggeration but not by much. The return of a focused, committed McRoberts would have meant Duke was returning every recruited player from last season and adding three prep A-A, including Singler. I'm more than familiar with the concept of addition-by-subtraction. Note my qualifiers at the beginning of this paragraph. But if Josh wanted to come back and play hard, team ball, then Duke wanted him back and that would have been a formidable team on paper and I suspect a top-3 team pre-season.

Jim we may be debating minor points, and you are by far the mack daddy of DBR posts. I have more respect for what you say on here than anyone. But I distinctly remember in the McDonalds All Star game that year Burgess was called the highest rated / best recruit coming out of high school. In fact I remember actually setting aside time to watch the game just because of him. (Much like I did to see this new #1 rated kid Josh McRoberts a few years ago.) Granted one ranking service will differ from another, and I've even seen kids ranked #1A & #1B depending on what a particular schools needs were. I thought by the time the McDondalds game rolled around rankings were pretty much finalized.


And when we give the due credit are we giving the credit to the UCONN system, Jim Calhoun or Okafor himself?