Unheralded ACC Players Off to Good Starts

[gw67]

There are several relatively unheralded, ACC players who have gotten off to terrific starts. They include Swann (FSU), Morrow (GT), McClinton (Miami), Asbury (Miami), Green (UNC) and Scheyer (Duke).

Swann – He had a good junior year but he is outdoing himself this year. His shooting stats are outstanding (97% from foul line) and he is doing a better job handling the ball and distributing it.

Morrow – He has a reputation as a good shooter and he is not only shooting the ball better than ever he is also rebounding.

McClinton – He is simply the best shooter in the ACC. He had good shooting stats last year but this year they are off the chart (57% on 3-pt tries). Majerus has a rule of thumb to measure shooters where he adds the overall shooting %, the shooting % from 3-pt distance and the free throw %. Outstanding shooters are over 1.80. McClinton is at 1.96.

Asbury – He plays like a lottery pick when he faces Maryland. This year, he is playing well against all teams. He is shooting well and is a tough rebounder and defensive player.

Green – If Scheyer is not the best 6th man in the ACC, then Green is. He provides instant offense, grabs rebounds and is a better defensive player than given credit for.

Scheyer – He had a good freshman year but in fewer minutes he has improved in all areas except scoring per game. Based on his freshman year, he was considered an average shooter; however, his shooting stats through ten games are second only to McClinton. Further, his rebounding from the guard position is improved, his ballhandling and passing may be the best on the team and, IMO, his overall play has been second only to Nelson on a loaded team with several youngsters playing very well.

If they continue, I expect McClinton, Swann, Morrow and Scheyer to get some consideration for All-ACC.

gw67

[dcarp23]

Ken Pomeroy gives Jon Scheyer an offensive rating of 133.4, which is 24th best in the nation and tops in the ACC. According to Pomeroy, offensive rating is a "measure of personal offensive efficiency developed by Dean Oliver. The formula is very complicated, but accurate. For a detailed explanation, buy Basketball on Paper. Anything over 110 is good, and 120 is excellent for a player that is the workhorse on his team."

The top five in the conference are:
1) Scheyer
2) Corey Raji (BC)
3) Swann (FSU)
4) Green (UNC)
5) Cliff Hammonds (CLE)

The downside to these numbers is that Scheyer is certainly not "the workhorse" on this team, which might suggest that he is underutilized. Conversely, perhaps he is so efficient and effective because he is adept at picking the spots to assert himself.

Singler is 159th nationally on this list, Paulus is 182, and Nelson is 489.

http://www.kenpom.com/leaders.php?c=ORtg

[mepanchin]

Offensive rating is a very useful stat, but only when coupled with usage rate. It's only partly helpful to know how efficiently a player contributes to his team's offense if you don't know how frequently he uses possessions. Scheyer has a very high efficiency but a fairly low usage rate - suggesting what we know: he doesn't force shots and only takes good looks. Henderson has the highest usage rate on the team, and the lowest efficiency, but that isn't to say that he is a worse player as a result. In fact, it shows that he is handling a bigger load and has greater offensive responsibility than any other player when he's playing, so it's expected that he not produce points as efficiently.

I think if Scheyer's usage rate increased, his efficiency would sharply decline. He is an excellent player and does a lot of little things, as well as being a natural scorer and an excellent shooter, but he doesn't have the kind of superlative physical gifts to allow him to consistently create his own shot.

[Bob Green]

Henderson has the highest usage rate on the team, and the lowest efficiency, but that isn't to say that he is a worse player as a result. In fact, it shows that he is handling a bigger load and has greater offensive responsibility than any other player when he's playing, so it's expected that he not produce points as efficiently.



A contributing factor to Henderson's inefficiency is his lack of court vision. Once Gerald starts a move, he is committed to taking the shot even when it is not there. I would like to see GH drive the lane and dish to a teammate in the corner for an open three once in a while.

[gw67]

I have read Pomeroy for many years and I have enjoyed his blog/stats but I think that his stats have their limits (e.g. Does high usage rate mean taking on a greater responsibility or a ball hog putting up poor shots?) . For instance, I generally don't look at his team and individual stats until late in the season when there is enough data to smooth out the great/terrible games. I've come to rely on my two eyes and old brain to evaluate teams and players.

Based on what I've seen, Nelson and Scheyer have been the best all around players on the team. Other than foul shooting for Nelson, both have played solid basketball to date. Singler is also a very good all around player who only needs to reduce his turnovers.

gw67