Duke and UNC so far..

[DukeBlood]

Duke 9-0

Points Scored- 780
Points Given Up- 558

PPG 86.7
RPG 38.9
A/TO 1.2/1
STL 7.6
BLK 4.9
FG% 49%
FT% 71.2
3% 42.4

UNC 8-0

Points Scored- 719
Points Given Up- 552

PPG 88.9
RPG 42.6
A/TO 1/1
STL 9.8
BLK 4.0
FG% 49%
FT% 71.5%
3% 38.%

IMO Duke has had a little tougher schedule. Ohio State, Kentucky and Davidson are the toughest they have played while Duke has had Illinois, Marquette, Wisconsin and Davidson.

I know they are only stats, but this has to encourage some of you a little more.. It does me :)

[DUKIECB]

Amazing how similar the numbers are! Obviously it is still early in the season and both teams still have a long way to go before reaching their respective potentials. I agree that we have played the tougher schedule so far and we have another top ten matchup with Pitt coming up next week. It is encouraging though!

[Patrick Yates]

I think that you have to look at that opponent list a little closer. UNC has played three true away games, at the other guy's house. Duke has yet to play anyplace worse than neutral.

Davidson was a wash, both played at the same place.

We got Wisconsin at CIS. A Wisconsin team that has yet to beat a quality oppenent, and one that mnay national pundits are begining to question.

UNC went to OSU. And at Rupp, never an easy place to play, I don't care how bad UK is this year. And those IVY kids at Penn were jacked. Sure, UNC was better than all those teams on paper. Guess what, there are only 2-3 teams in the nation that are not clearly worse, on paper, than UNC. Roy is really getting them ready by going on the road, cause UNC will be hunted all year.

Winning on the road is hard. Winning at Home, or in a neutral arena, is much easier.

I think it is hard to compare, especially since Duke has not had an injury to a key player, while UNC was without its PG for a couple of its hardest games.

It is too early to make this comparison.

Patrick Yates

[juise]

I think it is hard to compare, especially since Duke has not had an injury to a key player, while UNC was without its PG for a couple of its hardest games.

That's what I was thinking, too. If we were playing without... say... Nelson, I think we may have lost a game by now.

[Classof06]

I realize UNC has played true road games and we haven't but you can't argue Duke has had played better teams. I also didn't see UNC travel to Maui, play two solid teams back to back only to fly back to NC and play another game 3 days later. Besides BYU, UNC hasn't played anyone of note, IMO.

I think we'll split with UNC this year but I'd still like to see how we fare against good teams with size. I'm really looking forward to this Pitt game as a barometer. You can only learn so much about this team beating up on Michigan at home..

[crote]

That's what I was thinking, too. If we were playing without... say... Nelson, I think we may have lost a game by now.

I talked about this with a UNC supporting acquaintance recently. UNC's greatest weakness, in my opinion, is that they are extraordinarily dependent upon TH and Lawson. Both are extraordinary talents, for sure, and are probably better than what Duke has on offer at their respective positions. After them, though, the drop off is pretty significant. If either of those guys go out, be it to injury or to foul trouble, Carolina is significantly diminished. Carolina is a completely different team when either one of those guys isn't playing.

You really can't say the same thing about Duke. If any of our wings are hurt or get fouls, their production can be made up pretty easily by the rest of our 2/3 guys. Even if something happens to one of our bigs, we can go four guards and Lance/King/Singler/even Dave and still be very productive, as we were against Michigan. Paulus' skill set is maybe the least redundant, but even there the Nolan/Scheyer/DeMarcus triumvirate seems pretty comfortable distributing the ball should that need arise.

Offensively, we have seven or eight guys who could be our leading scorer on any given night without it being a surprise. We can have a night where four or five guys aren't really feeling it, and still be moderately successful offensively. That's amazing to me.

UNC has more talent in their starters than we do, but our bench depth is leaps and bounds above theirs. It will be interesting to see which one of these wins out in the end. Whatever the case, though, Duke does seem to be the team better built for March.

[Indoor66]

UNC has more talent in their starters than we do, but our bench depth is leaps and bounds above theirs. It will be interesting to see which one of these wins out in the end. Whatever the case, though, Duke does seem to be the team better built for March.

I don't think I agree with you here. I am not sure that UNC has more talent in the starters. As you have pointed out, if Lawson or Hanssssssssss are out, they are in trouble. Not so with Duke. Any one or two starters can be out and Duke is not in trouble. The remaining three starters, with two subs, can carry forward quites as well as before. Carolina's three other starters cannot carry the team.

[crote]

I don't think I agree with you here. I am not sure that UNC has more talent in the starters. As you have pointed out, if Lawson or Hanssssssssss are out, they are in trouble. Not so with Duke. Any one or two starters can be out and Duke is not in trouble. The remaining three starters, with two subs, can carry forward quites as well as before. Carolina's three other starters cannot carry the team.

TH and TL are better than any of our starting five (some may debate the point on TL, but I stand by it). Ellington is comparable to any of our wings. I'd probably take Thompson over Lance. The only clear advantage we have is in the third guard spot. That puts the total at 3-1-1 in favor of UNC.

That we can have two or three starters out without a drop in productivity is, I think, more a testament to the talent of our bench than the talent of our starters.

If any one of TL, TH, WE, or DT go out, and our players on the court come from our top eight, our lineup is AT LEAST as talented as UNC's. Put another way, UNC's top five beats ours, but Duke's top 6/7/8 trumps theirs.

[phaedrus]

I'd probably take Thompson over Lance.

Sure, but why not compare Lance with Hansbrough, then take Singler over Thompson? :)

Also, while I'd agree that Ellington is "comparable" to Henderson, Nelson is one of the, if not the best perimeter defender in the ACC (not to mention the best 6'2 rebounder... ever?). I gotta go with Nelson over either.

Still, given the superiority of TH and TL, I don't disagree that UNC has better starters.

[crote]

Sure, but why not compare Lance with Hansbrough, then take Singler over Thompson? :)

Also, while I'd agree that Ellington is "comparable" to Henderson, Nelson is one of the, if not the best perimeter defender in the ACC (not to mention the best 6'2 rebounder... ever?). I gotta go with Nelson over either.

Still, given the superiority of TH and TL, I don't disagree that UNC has better starters.

But Ellington is a better shooter than DeMarcus... I guess it's near futile to directly compare any two players on a skill by skill basis. In the end, I'd say Ellington is as good as Nelson is as good as Henderson is as good as Scheyer. They each bring different skills to the table, but their total values are pretty close to one another.

I guess that's really the secret to Duke's superior depth. We have three guys (maybe four, depending on Nolan's development) who are as good as UNC's starting two guard, and 3/4 who are better than Ginyard, whereas UNC just has Ellington.

[dukestheheat]

I do like the information provided in the initial post; I do, however, think that UNC's early schedule is tougher (a shade tougher) b/c of the choice of venue; Patrick already spelled that out, and certainly that has to weigh in.

Good information though and thank you for providing it!

dth.

[DukeBlood]

I agree with the points made about playing away. However, Would you rather play a average team away(or neutral)? Or a tough team at home? You can debate either way, but i think it all evens out.

I wasn't saying that Duke is better then UNC, But was more or less saying that Duke is alot better then I thought they would be at this point. Was just using those stats to help me out.

[sandinmyshoes]

This is sure to draw fire, but I think UNC's bench is being under-estimated here. Frasor is closer to being as good as Paulus than Paulus is to being as good as Lawson. He's a solid player. And Danny Green is ACC starter worthy. Stepheson is as well.

I think the teams match up pretty well over all, with UNC being stronger in the paint, but Duke being a better shooting team.

As for schedule, I have to give UNC credit for that long road trip that still isn't over.

Providing there are not major injuries the games this season should be like the classic Duke/UNC matchups of the past. Of course, having said that now Hansbrough will probably kill us and they'll win going away, or they'll have a cold shooting night and we'll walk away with an easy win. :rolleyes:

[dukeENG2003]

Eh, Frasor is a chump IMO. He's almost as good of a PG as Paulus, EXCEPT for that killer shot Greg has (which is really Greg's biggest asset). Thompson, eh, haven't seen enough of him to really evaluate him that well.

Danny Green. . . you have a point there. He's a solid player, a good glue guy.

[mus074]

Couldn't resist. [Just a matter of time before I make it onto some ignore lists.]

UNC: http://kenpom.com/sr.php?team=North%20Carolina&y=2008

Duke: http://kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Duke&y=2008

Our schedule has been statistically tougher. On offense, nearly identical TO%age, we shoot better and they rebound better. On defense, we rebound, defend the shot and turn over the opponent all better than they do.

Overall rankings:

Pomeroy
Duke 3, UNC 12

RPI
Duke 16, UNC 19

Sagarin (still weighted from last year)
Duke 2, UNC 1

None of the rankings have enough sample size or "connection" to be dispositive yet; however, there is very little foundation to say one team has outplayed the other so far.

[mus074]

Eh, Frasor is a chump IMO. He's almost as good of a PG as Paulus, EXCEPT for that killer shot Greg has (which is really Greg's biggest asset). Thompson, eh, haven't seen enough of him to really evaluate him that well.

Danny Green. . . you have a point there. He's a solid player, a good glue guy.

Paulus has a better ORtg than both Frasor and Lawson. He shoots much better than Frasor, while Lawson has a very high TO%age. Lawson is about the only person on their team passing out assists, but a remarkably high rate. Paulus' assist rate is significantly better than Frasor's.

Thompson is marginally offensive blackhole. High number of possessions used and very high number of turnovers.

Green is as important to UNC as King has been to Duke. High impact, efficient offense in mid-level minutes.

[mus074]

On defense, we rebound, defend the shot and turn over the opponent all better than they do.

Correction: they rebound better on defense as well.

[Ben63]

It will be easier to measure the two teams when they play their common ACC opponents at the same venues. The only common opponent was Davidson but that was at a neutral court. It will be interesting to see how Duke and Carolina compare v Maryland in College Park or VT in Blacksburg.

[cbfx3]

From what I have seen of UNC I have to say they look pretty good. I forsee some hardfought games with them. We will see for certain how good we are when we play them and that is for sure. I just hope they dont drop a stupid one and we meet up ranked higher than them. I hate playing UNC in that situation. i was at the Dean Dome the year we got smoked by VC, AJ, and company. We were ranked #1 from what I remember but isnt this when Elton was out with the foot?