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Udaman
02-27-2007, 09:42 AM
To a degree the tournament is always about good matchups. Last year, Florida really got a good break with the teams they played in that many did not match up to their style (Georgetown, Villanova, LSU). Of course UCLA did, and they blew them out of the gym - but that had a lot to do with how UCLA played that night.

So this year - who do I want to see us against?

Please, please, please Wisconsin. A slow it down type of defense with no dominant point guard is a dream for us.

Others I think we match up with really well include Georgetown, Air Force, USC, Pittsburgh, BYU, Vanderbilt and Butler.

Teams I don't want any part of, are either quick and deep (like Florida and UCLA) or dominant at the guard position (like Texas A&M and Marquette). The one mid-major I want no part of is Southern Illinois. They are legit.

Worst case would be the #3 seed with Marquette as our #6, Texas A&M as our #2 and Florida as the #1, Or the #5 with S. Illinois as our #4, and Florida as our #1. That would be trouble.

Carlos
02-27-2007, 09:51 AM
Even though they played like dog meat last night, I really don't want to see Kansas anywhere around our bracket at the moment.

Udaman
02-27-2007, 10:00 AM
You are correct Carlos - I want no part of them in the tourney. I should have included them. They could lose in the first round, or win the entire thing. They are deep and talented. Sort of like UNC (only a little worse) in that when they put their mind to it...they are damn hard to beat.

rthomas
02-27-2007, 10:05 AM
Without their starting center (leading rebounder, 3rd leading scorer), Wisconsin is going to be hurting. It will be interesting to see how they fare before the tournament starts. Their tournament seeding could drop.

With or without Butch, I'd like to see them in our bracket.

I wouldn't mind seeing any Big East team witht the exception of Georgetown.

hurleyfor3
02-27-2007, 10:29 AM
This doesn't really answer your question, but I thought they stuffed the bracket against UConn last year also, not just us.

My preferred strategy this year is, "be a three or six seed this year so that maybe someone else will beat the #1 first". As for Flawda, Vandy beat them, so why can't we?

A-Tex Devil
02-27-2007, 10:35 AM
Yeah, Georgetown is really clicking these days. Not the same team we saw in December, and those types of offenses usually do fairly well against Duke -- if executed properly. They ran into a quasi-desparate Syracuse team last night on the road.

I'd love to get some overseeded Pac10 teams (other than UCLA) in our bracket. I'll really be rooting for the ACC to beat down the Pac10 this year. I imagine they'll be at least 2-3 matchups in the tourney, as many teams as both conferences are getting in.

dukie8
02-27-2007, 10:56 AM
i'm not sure how stuffed uconn's bracket was last year -- they got to play gm in the regional finals. that's not exactly a killer. wisconsin would be great with or without butch. other than tucker, they cannot score. our defense shuts down teams that CAN score. i want no part of winthrop. they are finally going to win their first round game this year. they are experienced and not afraid of anyone (ask unc). i also don't think that deep teams are that much a problem for us (at least not compared to last year). k has been giving steady minutes to the bench so i don't see a deep team wearing us down. it's the teams with very quick/athletic point guards that are going to cause the most problems. ucla, florida, marquette and ohio st come to mind (in addition to uva and va tech).

even though gtown is playing much better now, i still think that we match up well with them. they DON'T have great guards. green and hibbert are very good but our stellar defense was very good at neutralizing them and i think that we can do that again.

throatybeard
02-27-2007, 10:59 AM
Predicted Region Final score, if Wiscy is in our bracket:

Wisconsin 32
Duke 29

:eek:

CMS2478
02-27-2007, 11:04 AM
But sadly, that might be close to accurate.

mr. synellinden
02-27-2007, 11:24 AM
I had the same original thought about a Wisco matchup -- first one to 50 wins.

Whatever we are seeded, I'd like to see Nevada as a second round matchup and maybe Pitt in a regional semifinal. I'd much prefer a 3 or a 6 and avoid the 1 seed until the regional final (or hope for an upset before we would get there).

I think this tournament has the potential to be much like last year's with a lot of unexpected teams going far. I would not be surprised to see a mid-major in the Final Four again. None of the potential #1 seeds are without flaws or have that aura of invincibility. Not there haven't been teams like that which have lost early, UConn last year, Duke in 2002, a few Kansas teams, UNC in 1994 (to site a few) but I really believe that any of the top 20-25 teams could get hot and win 6 in a row.

Clipsfan
02-27-2007, 11:26 AM
FLA didn't play LSU last year, UCLA did, but the point is still true: success in the tournament is largely dependent upon the matchups. However, I disagree with the desire to play the PAC-10 schools, as I don't think that Duke matches up very well with them. Of the ones likely to make the tourney, I'd probably rather play Stanford the most, despite the fact that they're playing a ton better as the season goes on (a young team, and their best player may be Brook Lopez, a freshman who was out for the first few games following back surgery.) Despite having two 7 footers, which can be tough, I like them because they play a slower pace. However, we wouldn't get off many shots in the paint, as they block almost everything that goes in there. Markie would have to rediscover his 3-ball. Of the other teams, UCLA would be a very tough game across the board, but Collison is way too quick for us, not to mention Afflalo or Shipp. Even the big men are relatively quick, such as Mbah a Moute. Despite what you said about USC, they're actually a fairly quick team, and I don't know how we'd match up against them. Brooks of Oregon might be our worst nightmare...an incredibly quick little guy who can both hit the 3 with ease and slice to the basket. Not only that, but he's a senior who has stepped up in a lot of games this season. However, Oregon has been on a slide. Arizona hasn't won as many games, but their strength is the incredible athleticism/talent. Their problem is lack of D and that they don't play well as a team. I still wouldn't want them to be our 6 if we were a 3. Maybe the other team to play would be WSU, although they are very good. That game might be another of those 32-29 scores, hopefully with Duke winning... I'd be happy to have WSU be a later round matchup (at least compared to teams like Kansas).

DukeDevilDeb
02-27-2007, 11:28 AM
Thinking back to 1991, I can be happy with any bracket as long as there is no possibility that we would meet UNC in the Final Four!

MulletMan
02-27-2007, 11:32 AM
I would love to play Florida in the tourney. That's right, I said it! We're exactly the kind of team that could take them out... a team that plays hard every posession, and one that plays great defense. Have you watched Florida at all? They're complacent and easily frustrated... not to mention that the guys who didn't leave last year when thier stock in the NBA draft was as high as it will ever be, are starting to worry about getting thier looks and raising theier draft status. We would beat Florida.

The SEC stinks... how about that T-beard?! :cool:

Troublemaker
02-27-2007, 11:46 AM
Walking through Pomeroy's rankings (http://kenpom.com/stats.php ):

1. UNC - NO. not a possibility if Duke gets a top 4 seed, anyway.
2. Kansas - HECK NO. nightmare matchup. too athletic 1 through 5.
3. TAMU - DECENT. preferably not, but if given a choice b/w TAMU and Fla/Kansas, I'll take TAMU. decent athleticism.
4. Florida - HECK NO.
5. UCLA - NO. bad matchup. they're like us (guard-oriented) but better and older. not conducive at all to an upset, which usually requires a contrast in team makeup.
6. OSU - YES. they're athletic but young enough that we can pull this off. probably would get upset by someone else along the way.
7. Wiscy - YES. very much a system team. our defense could hopefully push them away from the basket outside the comforts of their offense, making the game a tossup.
8. Duke
9. Memphis - DECENT. with their lack of competition during the year, a good upset candidate.
10. Georgetown - YES. see Wisconsin. would have confidence of having beaten them before.
11. Michigan St - YES. not a bad matchup. similar team to us but not more talented than us.
12. Maryland
13. Pittsburgh - YES. see Wisconsin
14. Notre Dame - YES. see Michigan St
15. Louisville - NO. athletic. coming together nicely. Caracter = beastly.
16. Indiana - YES.
17. GaTech
18. Kentucky - YES. see Michigan St
19. Villanova - YES. see Michigan St
20. Texas - NO. no answer for Durant. coming on strong right now.

I wouldn't terribly mind any non-ACC team below Texas in our bracket. Maybe Arizona because they're such our polar opposite (all offense, no defense) that I wouldn't know which would carry the day, their O or our D. Plus Lute Olson hate us.

Troublemaker
02-27-2007, 11:48 AM
I would love to play Florida in the tourney. That's right, I said it! We're exactly the kind of team that could take them out... a team that plays hard every posession, and one that plays great defense. Have you watched Florida at all? They're complacent and easily frustrated... not to mention that the guys who didn't leave last year when thier stock in the NBA draft was as high as it will ever be, are starting to worry about getting thier looks and raising theier draft status. We would beat Florida.

I think Florida gets up for the games they need to get up for, like when the smacked OSU around. Or went into Rupp and smacked Kentucky around for a half. I think they'd get up for Duke...

hurleyfor3
02-27-2007, 12:10 PM
i'm not sure how stuffed uconn's bracket was last year -- they got to play gm in the regional finals.

And exactly who predicted Mason would do what it did? Actually uconn's failure to make the Final Four at the hands of an 11 seed proves my point!

Anyway, when the bracket came out I thought uconn would go down to whomever they ran into in the Sweet 16, Washington vs. Illinois. As it turned out that was one of the better second round games in tournament history, and in the Sweet 16 uconn needed a three at the buzzer to force OT with Washington.

Kentucky was the eight seed, in a classic "historically strong program gets the 8 seed to scare the crap out of the #1" selection committee move. As I recall Ky kept it close.

The #2 in uconn's bracket was Tennessee, for whom I had no respect, but the #3 was unc. Remember unc got on quite a roll last year and had their momentum continued would have presented a very tough matchup with uconn in the final eight.

chris13
02-27-2007, 12:43 PM
I had the same original thought about a Wisco matchup -- first one to 50 wins.



I don't think the players would want a 3 hour game.

throatybeard
02-27-2007, 01:02 PM
Chris13, awesome! Long time no see.

phaedrus
02-27-2007, 01:35 PM
Without their starting center (leading rebounder, 3rd leading scorer), Wisconsin is going to be hurting. It will be interesting to see how they fare before the tournament starts. Their tournament seeding could drop.

With or without Butch, I'd like to see them in our bracket.

I wouldn't mind seeing any Big East team witht the exception of Georgetown.

interesting fact: greg paulus lived in appleton, wisconsin, for awhile, where he played basketball for awhile with appleton native brian butch.

TheDuke11
02-27-2007, 01:40 PM
teams I want in Duke's bracket (somehow)
Cal
Louisville
Arkansas
UNLV

MulletMan
02-27-2007, 02:21 PM
teams I want in Duke's bracket (somehow)
Cal
Louisville
Arkansas
UNLV


Nice. Although I don't worry about UNLV. We already took care of that.

A-Tex Devil
02-27-2007, 02:50 PM
I think my anti-Pac 10 football biases may be bleeding over into basketball, and there are certainly some good teams in the Pac 10 this year. But really, only UCLA seems like a team we wouldn't beat more times than not.

There haven't been a whole lot of good non-conference wins by the non-UCLA teams (there are wins against Wichita State, Georgetown, Memphis and Gonzaga, but not much else), and I just haven't understood why they have all been ranked higher than the top 5 ACC teams all year.

They all play each other, including UCLA, tough, though, so I guess we'll see in the tourney.

dukie8
02-27-2007, 03:23 PM
living on the east coast, it is hard to get a feel for how good (or bad) the pac 10 teams are other than ucla (they are very good). arizona has been on tv several times and looks typical arizona -- great individual players, poor team play, great offense and poor defense. if they ever got on the same page, they would be very good. unfortunately for them, they have not been on the same page this year, which explains why they have lost to nearly every good team they have played. i can't see things all of a sudden clicking for them in march and they remind me of the their team from either '04 or '05 with frye who get upset in the first round as an 8 seed.

i would love to see a texas game because something would have to give. durrant has lit everyone up all year long but he hasn't faced a d like ours. his supporting cast is playing A LOT better now, which explains why they are winning the bigger games now. if augustine keeps up his strong play, they are going to be very tough. i wonder how k would deal with him. i agree that the melo comparisons are going to really pick up steam from here on out.

you people are crazy if you want florida in duke's bracket. they have their entire starting 5 back from the defending national champion. i agree that they appear to be sleep-walking at times (a la uconn last year) but if they are clicking, they easily are the best team in the country. if they handle tennessee tonight, all should be well for them. if they don't, then maybe there is something bigger going on. the lsu loss without davis was very bad.

Buckeye Devil
02-27-2007, 06:56 PM
From the Big 10-Wisconsin. They are hurting right now with two straight losses and Butch going down. It could be an ugly game though as already alluded to since the Badgers typically play ugly basketball. Why anyone would want to go that God-forsaken state to play that style of ball is beyond me. And let's face it Duke has not always been pretty either this year. I know some of you think OSU, but I do not think it would be good-as one poster already mentioned-quick guards plus depth to spend in spite of the youth.

From the Big East-probably Pitt in the later rounds, but definitely not G'town at any point. 11 in a row before last night at a hungry Syracuse team playing for its tournament life. Marquette has shown itself to be very mortal, but the quickness factor would make them less desirable. The Big East doesn't seem to scary for some reason.

From the Pac 10-not UCLA. Too consistent. Arizona would be acceptable.

From the Big 12-anyone but Kansas and probably not A & M. If Kansas slips to a #2 seed, pity the #1 in that region.

Mids-not Winthrop or Southern Illinois. Both could make the Sweet 16 if the matchups are right.

Others-how about Penn St, Northwestern, and Louisiana Lafayette.

Clipsfan
02-27-2007, 07:04 PM
you people are crazy if you want florida in duke's bracket. they have their entire starting 5 back from the defending national champion. i agree that they appear to be sleep-walking at times (a la uconn last year) but if they are clicking, they easily are the best team in the country. if they handle tennessee tonight, all should be well for them. if they don't, then maybe there is something bigger going on. the lsu loss without davis was very bad.

I don't think that any of us really want a single one seed in our bracket, but we're going to be stuck with one. I'm not sure which one I'd prefer to have, although by process of elimination it is probably the one that isn't UCLA (better than we are at our strengths, possibly, and just better overall), Ohio St. (too quick and hard to do much inside against. Oden is a one man zone), and maybe FLA (if they hold on to a one seed). We're used to having slightly easier brackets thanks to being the one seed most years, so this year's bracket is going to look like a tougher road no matter what.

Dar95
02-27-2007, 07:35 PM
From observation and a quick review of the stats at kenpom.com, the teams we seem to struggle against are teams that cause turnovers, and teams that can score inside (i.e., don't rely on 3's, which we are particularly effective at preventing).

Here's an inexhaustive list of a few teams that appear to be good at both, which I would like to avoid:
Higher Seeds (possible 2nd/3rd round matchups)
Southern Illinois
Tennessee
Memphis
Louisville

Lower Seeds (possible 1st round matchups)
West Virginia
Toledo
Villanova
Illinois

3intherafters
02-27-2007, 11:38 PM
the teams in the top 10 that I see getting bouced quick are Memphis and Texas A&M.

I see Kansas and UCLA choking, too, but they are too loaded for me to predict their demise before the regional finals.

KyDevilinIL
02-28-2007, 07:51 AM
Around the country, fans of teams in Duke's position are begging for a tourney matchup with Wisconsin. Can't say I blame anyone, but it really strikes me as a "careful what you wish for" situation. Due only to that national senitment, I now fully expect Wisconsin to go to the Final Four.

I always prefer to avoid teams we have tournament histories with, regardless of their actual basketball eptitude. Nothing would wake up a ragged UK team more than playing Duke in the tournament, for example. A game like that strikes more fear into me than meeting UCLA. And it's not beyond the realm of possibility -- in a 3-6 or 4-5 game -- that it could happen in Round 2.

It's the early-round games that give me the willies most. The regional semifinal is dicey too, but only because of the week of hype. For the most part, after the second round, you're not going to get the teams you wanted or predicted anyway.

rsvman
02-28-2007, 08:53 AM
Everybody scares me in the tournament, because it's one-and-done.

Having said that, I think we beat Texas despite Durant, mainly because, IMO, Rick Barnes is probably the worst "big name" coach in the country.

I'm not sure I understand the desire of some people here to play against slow, deliberate teams rather than up-tempo teams. It seems to me that a running team has a lot of problems if you take them out of their running game, which is what Duke's stifling defense often does.

DankeShane
02-28-2007, 02:58 PM
Today's Bracketology has us as the #5 vs #12 VCU. How much do you think Coach K would dread having to play Coach Capel in the 1st round!

tbyers11
02-28-2007, 03:07 PM
I don't think Coach K would mind much since Jeff Capel is now the coach at Oklahoma

A-Tex Devil
02-28-2007, 03:17 PM
I'll be very surprised if A&M bows out early. They've played exactly 2 bad games all year. At home against Texas Tech and against LSU. They can play fast and slow and are extremely well coached. I'm not sure they have what it takes to win it all, but I'll be VERY surprised if they lose to an inferior team. They have been one of the top teams in offensive and defensive efficiency all year.

With respect to that list of teams Kenpom.com says force lots of turnovers and are strong inside, I thought it was interesting and surprising that Tennessee and West Virginia were both on that list. Especially West Virginia since they chuck so many threes. Tennessee relies pretty heavily on Lofton being hot from downtown, too (like we did on JJ last year).

Wintrop is the mid-major and below I hope we avoid. K has a good track record against mid majors, though. When was the last time we lost to one regular season or tourney? Eastern Michigan '96?

DankeShane
02-28-2007, 03:19 PM
I don't think Coach K would mind much since Jeff Capel is now the coach at Oklahoma

Don't I feel like a dope now. :(