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View Full Version : 6 seconds; tie score; which guy gets the ball this year?



dukestheheat
12-10-2007, 12:30 PM
so we're tied with 6 seconds and we're heading up court to put it in for the W.

1) Which Duke guy gets the ball in that situation, this year?

2) Why do you think so?

((realize that K will have called a timeout and he will have the warriors on the floor needed at that particular time to get the business done for Duke)).

dth.

Duke09
12-10-2007, 12:39 PM
I can't pick out one guy. Maybe its this team, but I think its team effort. Singler, Paulus, Scheyer, Henderson, and King on the court. I guess I have to go Henderson because he can get his own shot. But I would love Paulus on a drive and kick to scheyer and or king.

dukerev
12-10-2007, 12:43 PM
Assuming that K has called a timeout and gotten the guys in that he wants in, it will depend on several factors. In years' past it would have been obvious. JJ gets it (or the shot is set up for him). Or Shane gets it. Or Laettner gets it (fakes left, dribbles right, shoots, scores, Thomas Hill makes a great face). This year I don't think that there is one obvious guy to have the shot set up for them.

I think that the ball will be in Greg's hands to start the play. Or perhaps DeMarcus. Or maybe Jon. Clearly those three guys will be in the game. From there it will depend on what the defense is giving them (and has been giving them for the duration of the game) and who is hot/has been most in the flow of the game.

Perhaps King has been hitting lights out; he'd probably be in and if he got open, he'd have the shot. Perhaps Kyle has been destroying his guy and will be given room to create. Perhaps Greg or DeMarcus or Jon or Gerald will be asked to penetrate and shoot or dish depending on the situation.

I think that this makes it very hard to defend Duke this year. The opposing coach can't diagram a defense to stop everyone and can't know that one certain guy is going to get the ball. A decent coach would know that you better guard JJ (or Shane or Trajan, etc.) and set up his defense accordingly. But this year one never knows who is going to get it.

Furthermore, I think that Coach K has confidence in several of our guys to make THAT play. (I know he has confidence in all of our guys to play hard, be Duke basketball players and so on and so forth.) We don't have any one player this year that you point to and say, "Stop that guy and you can beat Duke." We don't have two of those guys. We have seven or eight.

Because of that, I don't think that there is a clear answer to this delightful question. So much the better for Duke!

dukestheheat
12-10-2007, 12:43 PM
duke09-

you don't think smith would be out there at that particular time of the game?

dth.

wilson
12-10-2007, 12:48 PM
duke09-

you don't think smith would be out there at that particular time of the game?

dth.

Not over those other five. On the other hand, if he's had a game like he did against meeshigan, perhaps he is. That's why I echo the sentiment that we're extremely tough to defend, and in the posited situation, I like our chances.

Fish80
12-10-2007, 12:52 PM
I put the ball in the hands of our senior leader. Just look at the Davidson game. Twice in the final minute (1:23 and 0:42) DeMarcus dished to Greg, who made the shots. Clutch shots, no doubt, but great assists by DeMarcus.

6th Man
12-10-2007, 12:53 PM
I think Henderson would be the best at creating a shot, but there is something about Singler that makes me think he might have a little bit of Laettner's killer instinct in him. Maybe it was the free throws against Marquette, but something tells me he may step up when the game is on the line.

EarlJam
12-10-2007, 12:54 PM
Based on Saturday I'd say Nolan Smith. Quickness, drive to the hoop and make the shot or get fouled trying.

Henderson would probably be my other option. Get it to someone quick, athletic, who can drive to the hoop and make the shot.

-EarlJam

Bluedog
12-10-2007, 12:55 PM
I'd have Paulus bring it up and pass it to DeMarcus or G, who I think are the best at creating their own shot. Then drive to the hoop to try to get the easy deuce or get fouled. If the double team comes, I'd have DeMarcus or G dish it out to Singler (or DeMarcus or G) who would be inside the key on the other side, who then slashes to the basket for a floater or pulls up for a short jumper. If that's not open, then a kick out to an open Scheyer or King beyond the three point line would be my third choice. But I think I'd like to see Nelson or G go hard to the hoop in that situation - I like our chances if our opponents decide not to help on the coverage, and if they do, we've got other options.

freedevil
12-10-2007, 12:55 PM
To take a jumper: Greg. To drive: DeMarcus.

EarlJam
12-10-2007, 01:04 PM
To take a jumper: Greg. To drive: DeMarcus.

Does anyone else on this board see similarities in the way DeMarcus handles the ball and the way Chris Carrawell handled the ball?

-EarlJam

wilko
12-10-2007, 01:06 PM
I dont think theres a right or wrong answer here.

In my mind it really depends on who has fouled out and who has the hot hand, if its away or home, if its been a lacklustre game where we are lucky to be tied or it its a sensational game with lots of energy around it...

I'd be tempted to ride the hot hand to the end... but that would be obvious and the other coach would be planning for it.

In a tie game...
I think I'd bring it upcourt as quickly as possible and look for the 1st open shot no matter who has it. If its McClure, (he hasnt played alot so far so I guess his man would cheat off him a bit) he needs to be ready to recieve and shoot IMMEDIATELY with Zoubek ready to follow the miss. I dont know if you have to run a set and risk an offensive foul. Take what they give.

Down 1pt...
I play for the win. Ride the hot hand. attack and drive to draw the foul in the event of a miss. So I'd look to G, Markie and Schyer (in that order) then Singler and King.

dukestheheat
12-10-2007, 01:08 PM
I think Scheyer might get the shot this year; I also wonder if Smith is in to get the speed and push up court, through defenders, and then to Scheyer? Or Smith to come off a mid-court pick and then sprint to pass to a shooter?

I'd have on the court at that time of the game: Smith, Scheyer, Paulus, Singler and King.

dth.

elvis14
12-10-2007, 01:14 PM
For me, it's Henderson. Here's the current players ranked for this situation:

1) Henderson
2) Singler
3) Jon
4) D-Mark
5) King Taylor
6) Nolan
7) Paulus
8) Lance
9) David
10) Big Z
11) Jordan Davidson :D

The cool thing is that we have 6 very viable options and Paulus. Shame that Marty got hurt he would have been between Nolan and Greg. Man this team is deep and fun to watch.

phaedrus
12-10-2007, 01:18 PM
Scheyer, Nelson, and Singler would all be in the game. Without question.

Paulus would almost definitely be in the game. If he were having a really poor game and Smith a good game, I could see Nolan being in.

Henderson would almost definitely be the fifth guy in, unless we are down by three or King is on fire. Then I could see King being in.

Who gets the shot? Depends entirely on matchups. I think I'd want to see it in the hands of Nelson (game-tying bucket against VCU, anyone?) or Singler, although the others are obviously capable of heroics as well.

Indoor66
12-10-2007, 01:19 PM
I want King, Paulus or Singler to take the shot. Each is a winner with the guts and cool to take any shot.

shadowfax336
12-10-2007, 01:24 PM
The cool thing is that we have 6 very viable options and Paulus. Shame that Marty got hurt he would have been between Nolan and Greg. Man this team is deep and fun to watch.

6 viable options and Paulus?
and did you watch the Davidson game man?

I know he can have trouble getting his shot off so he shouldn't be first option, but if he gets a look there's no way I don't want our 2nd best shooter/junior point guard/vocal leader shooting the ball in that situation.

Against Davidson he showed he had ice in his veins. He had a couple games last year where he just missed being a hero (I'm thinking UVA, that shot was off by about a centimeter from near half court) and I think this year if he gets the chance he's going to show he's ready to knock down the big ones

Duke09
12-10-2007, 01:34 PM
duke09-

you don't think smith would be out there at that particular time of the game?

dth.
I definitely went back and forth with Nolan over King. I love him in there because he can penetrate but ultimately I went with the gunner who can shoot from anywhere. I figure Greg is going to have the ball and Nolans job won't be to penetrate but to hit a shot. And if its deep, I want King.

Ben63
12-10-2007, 01:42 PM
If down two: D Nelson gets to the basket better than anyone on the team and finishes very well.
(Runner up is Henderson for same reasons)

If down 3: Have to say Singler here. His stroke is so smooth and he has the ability to create his own shot if he can't get open off a screen.
(Runner up is Paulus for a 3ball)

killerleft
12-10-2007, 01:43 PM
Half-court or closer- Inbound to Greg. He shoots, or drives and dishes, or drives and scores. To whom he passes to is less important than if they are wide open. Somebody will be, most likely.

Full-court- inbound to Nolan Smith...

SilkyJ
12-10-2007, 01:46 PM
D-MARC!

No question, that K would have him take it as our senior leader who can take it to the rim and pull up.

However, I would rather have Gerald take the shot, b/c they are equal in my mind in terms of driving, but Gerald has a much better pull-up and midrange game.

Also, someone above said they could see Gerald coming out of the game in place of King if we needed a 3 pointer (with paulus, demarc, scheyer, and singler also on the floor). I guess I could see that, but Gerald is shooting 41% from 3 so don't underestimate his ability to shoot the deep ball.


Does anyone else on this board see similarities in the way DeMarcus handles the ball and the way Chris Carrawell handled the ball?

-EarlJam

a little bit. but I can never make real responses to your posts anymore cause your constantly updated avatar makes me laugh so damn hard.

juise
12-10-2007, 01:50 PM
Full-court-

Throw it to Taylor King at the free throw line of our own basket... from way downtown... bang.

Jaymf7
12-10-2007, 02:20 PM
6 viable options and Paulus?...
I think this year if he gets the chance he's going to show he's ready to knock down the big ones

Paulus showed he could knock down big ones last year, where for the last 1/3 of the season he was the only player with the guts to step up consistently and try to take over games. He has already hit many big shots this year. While I agree you might not want him to try to "create" by himself, he needs to be in the game and a key option.

As to the main question posed, we simply have too many weapons to answer this question definitively. It all depends on what the D is giving up. Is there a size/speed mismatch on Singler, Henderson or Markie? Where did the team put their weakest defender (especially if we go small with Singler at the 5)? Who has the hot hand?

I suppose I would want to get the ball to Markie, Henderson or Smith (whichever of them is in and open), then have them drive to draw defense. If it comes, they pass to whoever is open (Paulus, Scheyer, Singler?). If it does not, they go to the rim and we crash.

The beauty of this team is that the opponent's defense cannot focus on a single player (or two) to stop. The downside is we do not have that proven superstar who knows the team expects him to take and make the big shot (and has the confidence to do that). If '06 proved anything, it is that even with a player like that, there are great risks if he is shut down (and other players stand around waiting for him to save the day, as we did too often).

I can't wait to see how this plays out when we are down with 6 seconds to go at some point in the next month or two...

allenmurray
12-10-2007, 02:29 PM
The most fun thing about this team? There are almost no bad choices.

dukestheheat
12-10-2007, 02:52 PM
Jaymf7-

you are right in that Paulus will need to be picked to get his shot; he'd be coming down the middle of the court and he'd need the pick; in the Davidson game, he was already down below the top of the key and his momentum allowed him to separate and get the lean to get open in the blink of an eye and bury the shot.

Nolan Smith could create his shot, however; I'd see Nolan bringing the ball down court, getting picked, driving and dishing. Remember, we only need a two or even one foul shot to seal this win (IF THE REF chooses to call a foul to end the game; many refs will NOT do this as they'd like a game to not be decided on the foul line). Maybe a Singler shot/floater or same from Paulus in the lane after the Smith dish?

dth.

elvis14
12-10-2007, 02:52 PM
6 viable options and Paulus?
and did you watch the Davidson game man?

I know he can have trouble getting his shot off so he shouldn't be first option, but if he gets a look there's no way I don't want our 2nd best shooter/junior point guard/vocal leader shooting the ball in that situation.

Against Davidson he showed he had ice in his veins. He had a couple games last year where he just missed being a hero (I'm thinking UVA, that shot was off by about a centimeter from near half court) and I think this year if he gets the chance he's going to show he's ready to knock down the big ones

I was almost counting the seconds until someone posted this. We would not have been in the situation in the first place if Paulus had not been terrible the first 37 minutes of the Davidson game. So yes, I did see the Davidson game and I remember the GAME not just the last 3 minutes. I remember yelling at least 3 times during that game "Paulus is awful today". It was very nice that Greg did some great things at the end of that game. But it was not this situation. With just 6 seconds left in a tie game the only way you want Paulus touching the ball at all is if Henderson or DeMarcus drives and dishes to an open Greg Paulus. He can be a vocal leader by saying "Nice shot Gerald" right after G hits the game winning pull up jumper! If there's more time or if we are up like we were vs Davidson, sure put Paulus in the mix. But in this situation, I'll take the other 6 guys I listed first.

Note, I like Paulus and his competitive nature. He's scrappy and he can shoot. There are parts of his game that I don't like also. The question as posted was who you want to take a shot with 6 seconds left and a tie game. For me, Paulus is not who I want trying to get his shot off with just 6 seconds left.

greybeard
12-10-2007, 03:17 PM
From what I've seen the last two years, K's preference is to put it in the hands of more mature players. I have my guesses as to why. Most prominently, the difficulty of keeping your head on straight if you succeed. The longer into the season, the longer the list of first option guys becomes. My current guess, Sheyer gets it high left, Singlar screens, and whoever is hot is the second option.

In this case, there might well be some pick and pop at play, as Singlar is a real mature kid.

That said, I defer to more experienced K watchers as to whether my relatively small-sample observations hold water.

allenmurray
12-10-2007, 03:27 PM
We would not have been in the situation in the first place if Paulus had not been terrible the first 37 minutes of the Davidson game. . . . I remember yelling at least 3 times during that game "Paulus is awful today". .. .. .. He can be a vocal leader by saying "Nice shot Gerald" right after G hits the game winning pull up jumper!

Note, I like Paulus and his competitive nature. He's scrappy and he can shoot. There are parts of his game that I don't like also. The question as posted was who you want to take a shot with 6 seconds left and a tie game. For me, Paulus is not who I want trying to get his shot off with just 6 seconds left.

In the Davidson game (where he was "awful" as you say) he had 4 assists, 1 steal, and 3 turnovers - which in that game was the best ratio on the team. He had the best shooting night of any player except for Lance Thomas (who only took two shots). "Awful" is simply not accurate (unless leading the team in both assists and field goal percentage in a very tight game against a very good defensive team is your definition of awful).
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=273350150

For the season Greg has 36 assists and 16 steals to just 17 turnovers this year - the best assist to turnover ratio on the team.

His field goal percentage is the same as Henderson's (Paulus .466, Henderson .465), his 3 point percentage is higher than Henderson's, and his free throw percentage is much higher than Henderson's. Yet you want him to be a vocal leader, cheering for Henderson when Henderson makes the winning shot (by the way, Paulus has a lower ratio of turnovers to minutes played than Henderson - so the ball would be "safer" in his hands as well).

Greg is more than "scrappy". In every category he performs better than the player you claim to want to take the last shot.

If you want somebody else to be in charge at the end of the game - good for you. Just realize that you sure aren't basing that on any data from this season.

Folks on this board did everything they could last year to throw Paulus under the bus. I hope it doesn't start again.

Dukerati
12-10-2007, 03:46 PM
Ultimately, I think Coach K will decide on matchups and on a game-by-game basis. However, more times than not, I think GMoney will get the ball. He is our best one-on-one player and has that smooth pull up jumper that discourages weak-side help. With six seconds to go, it's less about set plays and teamwork and more about individual play and shot making. In such a scenario, there would be a MAX of two passes and preferably one (or none). G is our best bet.

dukeENG2003
12-10-2007, 03:49 PM
depends on the matchups, as well as on who has the hot hand that night on our team. There is no one answer to that question, which is what makes this team so deadly IMO

OZZIE4DUKE
12-10-2007, 03:53 PM
If we're tied, Paulus inbounds and looks for the pass back (can you say "Special!"?), but whomever is open can take the shot. If we're down, the dynamics change but all on the court will be good shooters, and again, get it to the open man within his range. Face it, who would have chosen Sean Dockery to shoot a 35 footer? History has its way of finding its own heroes.

trinity92
12-10-2007, 03:55 PM
All things being equal, I want the ball in Scheyer's hands with Singler ready to receive a pass. Jon is virtually automatic from the FT line, can drive and create his own shot or dish. I trust Singler to hit a layup or sink free throws with the game on the line, and he passes well enough to find the open man if he's double teamed.

Ideally, King is in the game to force a man to stick with him on the perimeter and open the lane. Jon inbounds the ball to Singler, who either shoots if he's open or passes back to Jon for an open shot. They can play a two man game-- think "Special."

yancem
12-10-2007, 03:55 PM
Does anyone else on this board see similarities in the way DeMarcus handles the ball and the way Chris Carrawell handled the ball?

-EarlJam

Yes and while mainly effective I often end up holding my breath when he is dribbling a lot.

Cali-Duke
12-10-2007, 03:56 PM
D-Marc should get the ball. D-Marc is a better at creating his own shot in very little time than anyone else on this team except for maybe Gerald. I give the edge to D-Marc because he has done it before, and he has been in those situations more than anyone else on the team.

The only way I'd give the ball to one of the freshman would be if we had like a second left, and we need Taylor to release the ball quickly.

Kilby
12-10-2007, 04:07 PM
Nolan Smith to bring the ball down and try to penetrate. Paulus and King to be ready for the kick out three if Nolan draws their defender. Henderson to try to attack the basket next with Singler in the mix. Henderson and Singler in addition to being able to get off a good shot against tough defenders would be tough on the boards in case of a miss.

dw0827
12-10-2007, 04:22 PM
So, the score is tied and we're heading up court.

Since the game is tied, it's gotta get into the paint . . . a play for Singler to see if he can seal his man off . . . dump it in and, at worst, he gets fouled and we win (83% from the line).

If Singler is covered, I want a guy to drive for the basket and either put it in or get fouled. Nelson goes up strong but hits 61% from the line. Henderson may not be ready for the pressure yet and he hits 68% from the line. Nope, I go for Scheyer and tell him to go STRONG . . . and he hits for 90% from the line.

So, a play for Singler. Not available? Scheyer to the basket. Actually, the point here is to get an easy bucket or get fouled. But I also trust either one of them to see the court and hit a teammate for an easy score if its available.

No long shot heroics here. Not with the game tied. Get in the paint.

Classof06
12-10-2007, 04:23 PM
I think Henderson would be the best at creating a shot, but there is something about Singler that makes me think he might have a little bit of Laettner's killer instinct in him. Maybe it was the free throws against Marquette, but something tells me he may step up when the game is on the line.

I agree with this. The other reasons I'd probably say Singler is because even though he's not the most athletic player on our team, he has such an arsenal of moves to get himself open and behind Scheyer, he's the most reliable FT shooter we have (83%).

yancem
12-10-2007, 04:29 PM
My gut instinct is to say that I want Paulus taking the shot. He has made several clutch shos in the past and has a penchant for rising to the occasion. the problem is that against teams with athletic guards I'm not sure I want him having to create his own shot. Nelson, Henderson, Singler and Scheyer can all create their own shots. Nelson sometimes tries to do too much and doesn't have much of a mid range game, it's either layup, foul or nothing and I'm not sure I want him on the line. Henderson can get and make just about any shot that he wants and has the guts to take it but if he's cut off is the least accomplished passer of the group. Singler getting the ball would depend mainly on the matchup. While he's got a good handle for a big guy, I'm not sure an isolation for him makes sense.

That leaves Scheyer who I think is who should initiate the play. He has the best combination of shooting ability and decision making ability. So the play, Nelson inbounds to Scheyer. Have Singler set a high screen for Paulus. If he gets open Scheyer passes to him for the jumper. If not then Scheyer can drive to the basket and either take the layup if it's there or kick it to Henderson or Singler. Note, it's not Scheyer's shooting ability that puts the ball in his hand, he just seems to make plays. I think I prefer either Paulus or Henderson actually taking the shot.

elvis14
12-10-2007, 04:32 PM
If you want somebody else to be in charge at the end of the game - good for you. Just realize that you sure aren't basing that on any data from this season.

Folks on this board did everything they could last year to throw Paulus under the bus. I hope it doesn't start again.

Did you watch the Davidson game or just look up the boxscore? Stats do not tell the whole story. They are a nice indicator but they don't tell the whole story, case in point, the Davidson game.

I'm not throwing Paulus under the bus I'm saying that with 6 seconds left, I don't want him to be the guy. People argued back with the Davidson game as an example. I'm refuting that argument saying that he had a bad game until the last couple of minutes (defensively in particular). If you are trying to tell me that he wasn't awful the first 37 minutes of that game because he had all of 4 assists and only 3 turnovers and he shot well (2 of 5), I'm telling you that I'm not buying that statistical argument over what I saw watching the game (twice). He hit 2 of his 4 shots in the last 3 minutes and that 1 steal he had was in the last 3 minutes. All that was great stuff but he was still awful for 37 min. For comparison's sake, take a look at his counterpart for Davidson, 11 assists to 3 TO. Paulus kept interrupting the flow on offense that game and he kept getting lost on defense (particularly on switches). That's what you can't see in the stats and it's why he was awful that game. Again, not throwing him under the bus, just refuting that the Davidson game showed me that Paulus should have the ball with 6 seconds left. With that little amount of time left I want Henderson to drive and pull up for a mid range jumper. In the flow of the offense, Greg is doing a good job this season of taking the right shots at the right time and as a result has good shooting percentages. Which is all good stuff for our team.

Saratoga2
12-10-2007, 04:34 PM
Half-court or closer- Inbound to Greg. He shoots, or drives and dishes, or drives and scores. To whom he passes to is less important than if they are wide open. Somebody will be, most likely.

Full-court- inbound to Nolan Smith...

You want good free thrown shooters, good ball handlers and people who can get their own shots. My best 5 in those categories are Scheyer, Singler, Paulus, Smith and Henderson.

King is an obvious option with his height and range but his free throw shooting has been weak so far. Nelson is not the best ball handler or free throw shooter. I don't think 6 seconds allows for rebounds or the need to get back on defense.

ugadevil
12-10-2007, 04:45 PM
I'm not throwing Paulus under the bus I'm saying that with 6 seconds left, I don't want him to be the guy. People argued back with the Davidson game as an example. I'm refuting that argument saying that he had a bad game until the last couple of minutes (defensively in particular). If you are trying to tell me that he wasn't awful the first 37 minutes of that game because he had all of 4 assists and only 3 turnovers and he shot well (2 of 5), I'm telling you that I'm not buying that statistical argument over what I saw watching the game (twice).

Well good thing he plays bad for the first 37 minutes. Then, he'll be ready to go for the last 6 seconds for the shot! :D

allenmurray
12-10-2007, 04:59 PM
Did you watch the Davidson game or just look up the boxscore? Stats do not tell the whole story. They are a nice indicator but they don't tell the whole story, case in point, the Davidson game.

I'm not throwing Paulus under the bus I'm saying that with 6 seconds left, I don't want him to be the guy. People argued back with the Davidson game as an example. I'm refuting that argument saying that he had a bad game until the last couple of minutes (defensively in particular). If you are trying to tell me that he wasn't awful the first 37 minutes of that game because he had all of 4 assists and only 3 turnovers and he shot well (2 of 5), I'm telling you that I'm not buying that statistical argument over what I saw watching the game (twice). He hit 2 of his 4 shots in the last 3 minutes and that 1 steal he had was in the last 3 minutes. All that was great stuff but he was still awful for 37 min. For comparison's sake, take a look at his counterpart for Davidson, 11 assists to 3 TO. Paulus kept interrupting the flow on offense that game and he kept getting lost on defense (particularly on switches). That's what you can't see in the stats and it's why he was awful that game. Again, not throwing him under the bus, just refuting that the Davidson game showed me that Paulus should have the ball with 6 seconds left. With that little amount of time left I want Henderson to drive and pull up for a mid range jumper. In the flow of the offense, Greg is doing a good job this season of taking the right shots at the right time and as a result has good shooting percentages. Which is all good stuff for our team.

Paulus was 4 for 7, not 2 fior 5 as you say. I gave you the link for the box score, did you even look at it?

No one on the team shot better. Davidson makes everybody look bad - Paulus played as well as anybody on Duke's team in terms of ball handling, defense, and fg%. So hoqw do you describe him? "Scrappy" You don't choose to say he leads in assist to turnover ratio, is one of the highest in FG% and is one of the highest in 3ptfg% - instead you say he is "scrappy". Damning with faint praise is what that is usually called.

Bluedawg
12-10-2007, 05:02 PM
Taylor King. The dude can bomb from anywhere

CY_devil
12-10-2007, 05:24 PM
1. Jon Scheyer
2. Greg Paulus
3. Gerald Henderson
4. Kyle Singler
5. Taylor King
6. Nolan Smith
7. If none of those options are available, we call another timeout.
8. DeMarcus Nelson

Channing
12-10-2007, 05:36 PM
with this bunch - i think the answer is . . . whoever is open.

elvis14
12-10-2007, 05:42 PM
Paulus was 4 for 7, not 2 fior 5 as you say. I gave you the link for the box score, did you even look at it?

No one on the team shot better. Davidson makes everybody look bad - Paulus played as well as anybody on Duke's team in terms of ball handling, defense, and fg%. So hoqw do you describe him? "Scrappy" You don't choose to say he leads in assist to turnover ratio, is one of the highest in FG% and is one of the highest in 3ptfg% - instead you say he is "scrappy". Damning with faint praise is what that is usually called.


Did you watch the Davidson game or just look up the boxscore? Stats do not tell the whole story. They are a nice indicator but they don't tell the whole story, case in point, the Davidson game.

I'm not throwing Paulus under the bus I'm saying that with 6 seconds left, I don't want him to be the guy. People argued back with the Davidson game as an example. I'm refuting that argument saying that he had a bad game until the last couple of minutes (defensively in particular). If you are trying to tell me that he wasn't awful the first 37 minutes of that game because he had all of 4 assists and only 3 turnovers and he shot well (2 of 5), I'm telling you that I'm not buying that statistical argument over what I saw watching the game (twice). He hit 2 of his 4 shots in the last 3 minutes and that 1 steal he had was in the last 3 minutes. All that was great stuff but he was still awful for 37 min. For comparison's sake, take a look at his counterpart for Davidson, 11 assists to 3 TO. Paulus kept interrupting the flow on offense that game and he kept getting lost on defense (particularly on switches). That's what you can't see in the stats and it's why he was awful that game. Again, not throwing him under the bus, just refuting that the Davidson game showed me that Paulus should have the ball with 6 seconds left. With that little amount of time left I want Henderson to drive and pull up for a mid range jumper. In the flow of the offense, Greg is doing a good job this season of taking the right shots at the right time and as a result has good shooting percentages. Which is all good stuff for our team.

To be more clear he was 2 for 5 in the first, awful, 37 minutes. He was 2 for 2 in the last, fantastic, 3 minutes. He was 4 for 7 overall. Sorry if I wasn't more specific earlier. Scrappy is a term that I use as a compliment sorry if you see it as damning with faint praise.

houstondukie
12-10-2007, 05:53 PM
1. Taylor King
2. Because everytime he shoots it, no matter from what distance, I am more suprised when he misses.

Slant
12-10-2007, 05:59 PM
Right now, I would have to vote for Demarcus Nelson, because he can create a shot from just about any angle, drive well to the rim, and also pop a three too. However, if he gets fouled, we may be in trouble, although Demarcus has gotten better at his FTs.

But by ACC or NCAA tournament time, I think it will be Kyle Singler. He has the court vision and a natural feel for the game, has the size to post up or take it outside, can create a shot, draw a foul, and put down the free throws. Kyle is just a natural and, despite being a frshman, seems to be unflappable and plays with great poise.

He is the best player on the court.

Sir Stealth
12-10-2007, 06:46 PM
It seems really apparent to me that Paulus has been the big shot guy for this team, even going back to last year when he was hurt. I don't think he played poorly against Davidson. Not his most masterful game, but certainly not poor - and when it came time to step up and win the game with big shots, he hit them. I would say that he has hit big threes that caused big shifts in momentum in the majority of our games this season.

I still think it was really naive to think (for some people hope) that a freshman point guard would overtake a three year starter at point guard in this program. A three year starter at that position is a big deal. Duke's off to a great start, but now the freshman has one nice game and everyone wants to crown him MVP.

That being said, I could see K going with Demarcus as the senior and captain. Remember giving it to Langdon in '99 (though this didn't work out very well). Free throw shooting is a problem there, as is overall ball control. Still, I think Demarcus has the will and the grit to hit a big shot when it counts. Someone mentioned Singler and how he knocked down clutch free throws in Maui. I agree and could definitely see going to him too. Henderson also makes a lot of sense, and you can't leave Scheyer out, so it really could be anybody. But to this point in time, Paulus has been the big shot guy on this team.

yancem
12-10-2007, 06:51 PM
Did you watch the Davidson game or just look up the boxscore? Stats do not tell the whole story. They are a nice indicator but they don't tell the whole story, case in point, the Davidson game.

I'm not throwing Paulus under the bus I'm saying that with 6 seconds left, I don't want him to be the guy. People argued back with the Davidson game as an example. I'm refuting that argument saying that he had a bad game until the last couple of minutes (defensively in particular). If you are trying to tell me that he wasn't awful the first 37 minutes of that game because he had all of 4 assists and only 3 turnovers and he shot well (2 of 5), I'm telling you that I'm not buying that statistical argument over what I saw watching the game (twice). He hit 2 of his 4 shots in the last 3 minutes and that 1 steal he had was in the last 3 minutes. All that was great stuff but he was still awful for 37 min. For comparison's sake, take a look at his counterpart for Davidson, 11 assists to 3 TO. Paulus kept interrupting the flow on offense that game and he kept getting lost on defense (particularly on switches). That's what you can't see in the stats and it's why he was awful that game. Again, not throwing him under the bus, just refuting that the Davidson game showed me that Paulus should have the ball with 6 seconds left. With that little amount of time left I want Henderson to drive and pull up for a mid range jumper. In the flow of the offense, Greg is doing a good job this season of taking the right shots at the right time and as a result has good shooting percentages. Which is all good stuff for our team.


I'm sorry but aren't we are talking about an end of game situation. You say that Paulus had a horrible first 37 minutes. Ok fine, but when it was crunch time did he come through big? Make the shots, create a steal? That says to me that when the game is on the line, even if he's having a bad game, he's a winner and can find a way to make a play.

Now I don't know that I want him sprinting up the court and creating his own shot but I certainly don't mind if he's the one shooting it. It's kind of like Langdon against UConn in 99. I would have loved for him to be the guy taking the last shot but would have preferred him coming off a screen than driving to the hole. Since that was the strategy, Avery would have been better suited for the job. Much like Henderson would if that's was the play called this year.

Kilby
12-10-2007, 07:01 PM
If Paulus is open for the shot pass it to him and let him take it. He's been money. But with 6 seconds left I want the ball in the hands of someone that can get off a good shot whether he is defended or not. Or, he draws a double can hit the open man. Paulus is not going to get his shot being closely defended.

lavell12
12-10-2007, 07:04 PM
Nelson and Henderson both tend to miss layups a lot so I would actually go with Scheyer b/c he is much better then Greg at creating his shot and Scheyer is also money from the line and has a good turn around jumper.

dukestheheat
12-10-2007, 07:24 PM
kilby,

how might the play work out? who'd bring it up the floor and who's going to hit the shot?

i think greg would definitely be a shooter in this situation, as he's a money shooter and i think one of the most gutty players we have when we need a bucket; i also agree with you in that he'd need a screen to get off his best shot. Scheyer can also be another high option to hit it, or Singler! I don't see Henderson or Nelson being as viable an option for the shot in this particular situation as both depend on driving to get it going; somehow, i see Nolan Smith bringing the ball upcourt at very high speed; a pick set for him around half court by Singler; Singler drops down to receive a back-dish IF smith can't get much further, but more likely a drive into the paint (by Smith) and then the ultimate dish to Scheyer or Paulus for the winning short jumper.

also remember that taylor king is hitting close to 50% of his shots this year from 3 ball range, some of them from waaaay back there. i can't even hit the rim from some of those distances!

certainly we have many options, and what a great 'problem' this is for Duke!

dth.

allenmurray
12-10-2007, 07:43 PM
I'm sorry but aren't we are talking about an end of game situation. You say that Paulus had a horrible first 37 minutes. Ok fine, but when it was crunch time did he come through big? Make the shots, create a steal? That says to me that when the game is on the line, even if he's having a bad game, he's a winner and can find a way to make a play.


Great point. Even if Paulus had an awful 37 minutes as Elvis14 says (which I don't agree with, but we'll let it go for the sake of argument) the question posed is who do you want to have the ball with a tie game and only 6 seconds left? Against Davidson Paulus showed that even after a sub-par performance, with the game on the line he stepped up, nailed the shot, made the defensive play, and sealed the win.

He has already proven he is the answer to the question. He has done it.

kydevil
12-10-2007, 07:54 PM
1. Jon Scheyer
2. Greg Paulus
3. Gerald Henderson
4. Kyle Singler
5. Taylor King
6. Nolan Smith
7. If none of those options are available, we call another timeout.
8. DeMarcus Nelson

A little harsh to Demarcus, but really funny.

elvis14
12-10-2007, 08:39 PM
I'm sorry but aren't we are talking about an end of game situation. You say that Paulus had a horrible first 37 minutes. Ok fine, but when it was crunch time did he come through big? Make the shots, create a steal? That says to me that when the game is on the line, even if he's having a bad game, he's a winner and can find a way to make a play.

A good argument but the difference is that we are talking about hypothetical of tie game with 6 seconds left. Not playing with a lead and a few minutes left. With that little time, I want someone that can create their own shot. I want the ball in Henderson's hands. Paulus had a nice moment against Davidson but I'm playing the odds and going with GMoney. I stand by my first post which lists the players I want to have this shot in order and I continue to be really happy that we have so many viable options.

Zeke
12-10-2007, 08:48 PM
Simple - put it in the hands of the best shooter. Right now that is McClure then Zoubeck.

ugadevil
12-10-2007, 08:50 PM
Simple - put it in the hands of the best shooter. Right now that is McClure then Zoubeck.

Yeah...Zoubek proved against Michigan that he wants the ball at the end of the game and that he can score.:eek:

Bluedog
12-13-2007, 03:51 PM
I just noticed that in the Michigan post-game comments, Coach K said, "Nolan has the ability to create his own shot. He and Gerald (Henderson) are two guys on our team that can do that, and today he did that." What about DeMarcus? I guess he didn't say "He and Gerald are the ONLY two guys that can do that," but that seems to suggest that they do it the best, at least.

dukestheheat
12-13-2007, 05:20 PM
bluedog-

that's why nolan has the ball coming up court, at that particular time of the game, in my opinion.

dth.

yancem
12-13-2007, 06:43 PM
I just noticed that in the Michigan post-game comments, Coach K said, "Nolan has the ability to create his own shot. He and Gerald (Henderson) are two guys on our team that can do that, and today he did that." What about DeMarcus? I guess he didn't say "He and Gerald are the ONLY two guys that can do that," but that seems to suggest that they do it the best, at least.

Nelson can create his own shot if it's a layup or a dunk. I honestly don't think I've ever seen him take a pull up jumper. He either drives all the way to the hole or he sets up behind the 3 point line.

ArnieMc
12-13-2007, 08:32 PM
Nelson can create his own shot if it's a layup or a dunk. I honestly don't think I've ever seen him take a pull up jumper. He either drives all the way to the hole or he sets up behind the 3 point line.You ought to try watching some games this year. If he doesn't have the drive, he veers off for a short jumper.

MChambers
12-13-2007, 08:33 PM
Let's try randomization:

http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/12/11/why-dont-sports-teams-use-randomization-a-guest-post/

Keeps the other team guessing. Also, we've got such a balanced team that it might be the best option.

dukemomLA
12-13-2007, 10:37 PM
For now, early in the season... I'd have Markie bring it down, dish to Paulus -- and either have him shoot it -- or pass for the best shot to WHOMEVER, including DeMac. The possibilities are endless. Depends on the match-ups, who's on the floor, who's got the hot hand that night.

Looking forward to such a game....although I have to admit I LOVE Duke blow-outs.

DukeBlood
12-13-2007, 10:41 PM
Nelson can create his own shot if it's a layup or a dunk. I honestly don't think I've ever seen him take a pull up jumper. He either drives all the way to the hole or he sets up behind the 3 point line.

Nelson has had quite a few times this year where he has drove and pulled up from 15 ft. Have you watched all the Duke games? or Most?

Anyway, I would be comfortable with Nelson, Henderson, Paulus, Scheyer, King(If hes on), Singler and Probably even Smith(48% FG/31% 3) taking the last shot.

The reason I threw Smith in there is because nobody would expect him to take the last shot.

bdh21
12-14-2007, 01:07 PM
Here's my take:

We have a lot of players who can hit open shots as well as players who can drive the ball. The one player I DONT want taking the last shot is Singler. He is our best offensive rebounder and he has an rare sense of where to put himself in order to make plays. Singler will be the one that wins a game on a putback after Gerald just misses a 15' pull up.

OrangeDevil
12-14-2007, 01:12 PM
My vote goes to Henderson. Like Nelson he's strong on the drive, but he can elevate inside to get off a shot. Too many times have I seen Markie get rejected underneath. Most of all, Gerald looks really comfortable and confident at the line. Second option is Markie.

UrinalCake
12-14-2007, 01:34 PM
A little bit off-topic here, but I wish that coaches would NOT call timeouts in these situations, and instead let the offense take the ball right upcourt and make a play. This prevents the defense from being able to set up. Duke's motion offense is predicated on taking what the defense gives you, and on the players being intelligent enough to recognize what the defense is giving them and knowing their teammates well enough to all be on the same page. So Duke should be at an inherent advantage when needing to create a play on the fly, versus the defense that also needs act on the fly.

dukestheheat
12-21-2007, 09:19 AM
So, we're already on the floor, but now we only have 4.7 seconds versus 6.0 that I originally posed, so we're speeding it up a bit.

Last night, we got the ball upcourt very quickly....only to have Scheyer drift over to the right side of the court and toss it up.

What happened on this last play for Duke and why didn't we get near the shot that we wanted or that we can get to win this game?

Forget all the stuff before the shot, I just am curious about our psyche and execution on this one play.

((did anyone see the Duke trailing players on this play? I think we had one or two players filling the lanes (as they should) so Scheyer, in my opinion, could have easily filled over with a quick pass to his left to the one or two Duke players in or near the lane for either a lay-in or shot in the paint!)).

curious as to what your take is on our last shot; Duke is going to be FINE.

dth.