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View Full Version : Looking ahead to our ACC schedule: Not easy at all



VaDukie
11-29-2007, 08:18 PM
Now that we're a little ways into the season, we have an idea of what the other teams in the conference have going for them. The teams we're playing twice:
UNC
Maryland
NC State
Virginia
Miami

UNC is obviously a challenge. You can never count out Maryland. State is struggling early but I think Lowe will have them ready to play. Miami has started out 5-0 and currently is #1 in the RPI standings. It's early, but they have wins against VCU and Providence. Virginia certainly has confidence against us - but I'd be stunned if they take us out in Cameron.

FSU, VaTech, and Wake are all on the road, but don't look too tough. BC is young and we have them at home, along with Clemson (endless clock jokes?), and GT.

12-4 with that schedule would look pretty good to me.

pamtar
11-29-2007, 08:25 PM
We haven't played State twice since the expansion correct?

VaDukie
11-29-2007, 08:26 PM
We haven't played State twice since the expansion correct?

I believe so, yes.

monkey
11-29-2007, 08:34 PM
Bring back the balanced schedule!

throatybeard
11-29-2007, 08:50 PM
Bring back the balanced schedule!

Um so we play 22 conference games? OK.

I'd take it. Fewer EKUs and UNC-Bojangleses.

bdh21
11-29-2007, 08:52 PM
Fewer EKUs and UNC-Boajangleses.

If there were a UNC-Bojangles I'd have matriculated!

captmojo
11-29-2007, 09:29 PM
If there were a Bojangles at .......nah, I'd just throw up.

Sorry. I can't take greasy chicken.

norduck
11-29-2007, 09:44 PM
ditto

Patrick Yates
11-30-2007, 08:33 AM
I have to disagree with the above assesment. I think 12-4 would have to be on the low end of expectations, barring injury.

UNC will be tough. Unless Lawson has a season like Paulus last year in that Lawson is never really 100 percent healthy. As we have seen in the last 2 games for UNC, and at Kansas before that, Roy's scheme is based on having a quick, ball-pushing PG. QT and Frasor aren't those guys. Without Lawson, or a healthy Lawson, UNC is still darned good. Capable of beating us, certainly. But they are a different team when Lawson is healthy. Without Lawson to really attack our guards, UNC is a lot more guardable. Lawson can get arround our guards, forcing help rotations which opens up the interior. He is also a better distributor, getting the ball to Hans and Ellington (who has to be watched at ALL times). Our guards can lock up Frasor or QT (and hold a wounded Lawson in check), which will lessen UNC's ability to get the ball to its superior low post players.

I am not impressed with NCSU. Some in the national media have questioned their ability this year. Lowe seems to have no idea how to use Hickson, Costner, AND McCauly effectively. Since McCauly and Hickson play the same position, almost exclusively, McCauly seems to be relgated to bench, and he is not relishing the move. And their guards are atrocious, and I don't see that changing. Our guards will be able to restrict thier movement and passing, negating any mismatches in the post. And since none of the NCSU players seem interested in D, they are in trouble against Duke. We can/should win both those.

Miami. I don't care what the RPI says at this early point of the Year. Miami does not have the horses to stay with us.

Maryland. I said this in another post, but I am REALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLY looking forward to playing those guys this year. Their guards, while talented, seem to be having some trouble adjusting to being the leaders. Last year they were freshman who only had to compliment talented, experienced Srs. Straw was a great defender, and Jones was the 3 pt man. I think their shoddy perimeter shooting, and relative shallowness on said perimeter, does not bode well vs the Devils. I expect to beat them both time, and I hope to really spank them in CIS.

Virginia. These guys could be trouble. They are better than I thought they would be. Singletary is a hard guy to check. We can put Nolan on him, but Singletary is a crafty Sr. Nelson might do the trick, but I don't know who Paulus guards. In CIS, we win. At UVA, I don't know.

As for the rest of the ACC, I am not worried, at all. FSU might give us a game, but again, our guards may be too much for them.

I can really see us losing only 1-3 games this year. At the Dean Dome looks like a likelihood for a loss (unless Lawson is not healthy, but even then I like UNC at their house for that one). I don't reall see another probable loss. Maybe UVA. UNC at CIS looks like a Duke win, but a healthy Heels squad COULD be rolling then. We may drop another one, but the team seems to be playing with a chip on their shoulders at the way last year ended. For the first time in years I think the kids will be up for every game, within reason (not as up for WFU as UNC, but appropriately Jacked enough in proportion to the team we are playing).

We may/will lose a game sometime when we are not hitting and the other guys are on fire. GT is a team that could fit this mold. I think 14-2 may be realistic, maybe 13-3. 12-4 is acceptable, but anything less would have to be a dissappointment, giving how we have started vs what I have seen from the rest ot the conference.

I still don't know if we are a national elite, but I now believe we are at least capable of beating them.

Patrick Yates

ps on a side note, I am really looking forward to pasting VT this year.

riverside6
11-30-2007, 08:50 AM
Patrick, I think your selling Miami short. They are a very good team, if Jack McClinton (http://www.scacchoops.com/forms/players.asp?search=jack mcclinton) can get healthy. They have two deadly shooters in McClinton and James Dews (http://www.scacchoops.com/forms/players.asp?search=james dews) (they are currently tops in the ACC in 3pt%), a very good slash player in Brian Asbury (http://www.scacchoops.com/forms/players.asp?search=brian asbury) and three legit frontcourt players in Dwayne Collins (http://www.scacchoops.com/forms/players.asp?search=dwayne collins), Anthony King (http://www.scacchoops.com/forms/players.asp?search=anthony king), and Jimmy Graham (http://www.scacchoops.com/forms/players.asp?search=jimmy graham) (they are tops in Offensive Rebound % and 3rd in Defensive Rebound %).

ACC Team Stats page with Miami's stats highlighted (http://www.scacchoops.com/forms/TeamStats.asp?team1=mi)

Throw in the fact that Frank Haith has them playing very hard defensively and I think they are a top 6 ACC team. In my mind they are playing like what NC State should be, but with less talent.

Slackerb
11-30-2007, 09:37 AM
Patrick, Duke is looking really strong in the early going, but keep in mind it is a long season. Saying Duke will only lose 1-3 games this year seems to be a bit premature, and maybe even looking through blue colored shades a bit. Only 1 team in the last 6 years has lost less than 4 times in a season, and that was a 3 loss Duke team.

I think you're not giving quite a few teams enough credit. On paper, maybe Duke should only lose 3-4 games, but that's on paper...we all know about the predictability of the ACC in conference play.

just_wondering
11-30-2007, 03:12 PM
I have to disagree with the above assesment. I think 12-4 would have to be on the low end of expectations, barring injury.
Maryland. I said this in another post, but I am REALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLY looking forward to playing those guys this year. Their guards, while talented, seem to be having some trouble adjusting to being the leaders. Last year they were freshman who only had to compliment talented, experienced Srs. Straw was a great defender, and Jones was the 3 pt man. I think their shoddy perimeter shooting, and relative shallowness on said perimeter, does not bode well vs the Devils. I expect to beat them both time, and I hope to really spank them in CIS.


In the two games last year Maryland shot well from the perimeter in one game but not in the other. Rebounds were even. Duke blocked more shots in one game and Maryland blocked more in the other. In both games Maryland had more assists than Duke. How is Duke going to stop the Maryland from getting assists?
Conference games are ugly games. By the time conference play roles around I think that Maryland will have a lot more ugly games under their belt than Duke. I don't see this team getting rattled when Duke comes out hard.

Classof06
11-30-2007, 03:42 PM
@ UVA, @ FSU, @NC State and @ Maryland are all games Duke should probably win but could easily lose. Yes, I know Al Thornton is gone, but FSU beat Duke before he got there and can beat us without him. They always get up for us.

Like Patrick, 12-4 is the worst I'd be happy with; not ecstatic but by no means disappointed. This reaction is based on the way I've seen us play so far; this is not how I felt a month ago. IMO, the league is going through the youth movement that Duke went through last year and is still somewhat in at this point. So having vets like Demarcus and Greg is crucial and will subtly win games by itself.

sandinmyshoes
11-30-2007, 03:45 PM
A lot of things happen between November and January. Some guys suddenly have the lights go on for them. Other guys suddenly seem lost as the intensity increases. There are injuries, and injuries healed. As I noted on another thread, there is also the freshman wall to worry about.

365Duke
11-30-2007, 03:47 PM
Just for kicks;) I would like to know what Ozzie's prediction for our conference record is going to be.

I would like to place my bet now please:D

cato
11-30-2007, 03:58 PM
In both games Maryland had more assists than Duke. How is Duke going to stop the Maryland from getting assists?


Duke's greatest weakness on D last year was the inability to keep guards from penetrating. With Paulus healthy and the addition of Smith to the backcourt, some of the guards who had a lot of success driving and dishing against Duke last year are going to get locked up this year.

gw67
11-30-2007, 04:50 PM
Based on the few games I've seen, I expect the Devils to go 13-3 and finish runnerup to the Heels. They are talented, deep and have a slew of players who can put the ball in the basket. They also leave their egos in the lockeroom and play as a team. Those are tough combinations to beat but ACC play, particularly away from CIS, is very difficult and I expect the Devils to lose a couple, that on paper, they should win.

I'm sure that j_w will disagree but I think that it is likely that the Devils beat the Terps twice this year. The big advantage for the Devils is the small forward position. The combination of Nelson/Scheyer or Henderson will eat them alive. I've seen the Terps play four times and they are potentially an excellent defensive team. Aside from poor shooting, Vasquez, Gist and Hayes have played as well as I anticipated and their freshmen seem to be playing better as they get some playing time. Backing up j_w, Vasquez and Hayes are both excellent passers (combined 10.7 apg) and rebounders as well as decent defenders. As good as their assist stats are today, I expect them to improve as the season goes and the young players on the Terps begin to put away the layups and open shots.

gw67

Indoor66
11-30-2007, 07:17 PM
Just for kicks;) I would like to know what Ozzie's prediction for our conference record is going to be.

I would like to place my bet now please:D

I don't know what the record will be but I put down $20 on Duke to win the NCAA's at 16x1 in Reno!

mgtr
11-30-2007, 08:38 PM
Well, it all sounds good, but we started strong last year, and, as I recall, at about this point in the season we were #6. We all know what happened later. However, this season we have quality wins against Marquette (a really good team) and Wisconsin (a pretty good team). I am extremely interested in what happens with Davidson (also a pretty good team, but capable of being very good). I think we win by 15-20, in which case I relax a little. But, if we just squeak by, or, heaven forbid, suffer the L-word), then I am worried.
Looking at the players we have, there is not a reason in the world that we should see a repeat of last year. I agree with Coach K {wouldn't I be stupid not too?) -- I am excited about this team. I just want to see a bit more evidence before I get my hopes up too far.

elvis14
11-30-2007, 11:26 PM
Well, it all sounds good, but we started strong last year, and, as I recall, at about this point in the season we were #6. We all know what happened later.

Although I understand the comparison the difference is that last year when we were ranked #6, most of us thought we were overrated (and we were right). Right now we are ranked #7 and I don't think too many people think we are overrated and there are a few of us who think we should be ranked in top 5.

I can't wait for conference games to start. This team has been so much fun to watch and have such good chemistry. I think we can give UNC a run for the conference title and we should give them hell in the Duke Invitational (aka ACC tournament).

just_wondering
12-01-2007, 08:54 AM
Based on the few games I've seen, I expect the Devils to go 13-3 and finish runnerup to the Heels. They are talented, deep and have a slew of players who can put the ball in the basket. They also leave their egos in the lockeroom and play as a team. Those are tough combinations to beat but ACC play, particularly away from CIS, is very difficult and I expect the Devils to lose a couple, that on paper, they should win.

I'm sure that j_w will disagree but I think that it is likely that the Devils beat the Terps twice this year. The big advantage for the Devils is the small forward position. The combination of Nelson/Scheyer or Henderson will eat them alive. I've seen the Terps play four times and they are potentially an excellent defensive team. Aside from poor shooting, Vasquez, Gist and Hayes have played as well as I anticipated and their freshmen seem to be playing better as they get some playing time. Backing up j_w, Vasquez and Hayes are both excellent passers (combined 10.7 apg) and rebounders as well as decent defenders. As good as their assist stats are today, I expect them to improve as the season goes and the young players on the Terps begin to put away the layups and open shots.

gw67

I agree that historically Duke has killed Maryland at the small forward position.

Nelson/Scheyer/Henderson gives Duke a small advantage over Milbourne/Tucker. But by the time conference play roles around the Maryland small forward will be Milbourne/Tucker/GIST. Maryland can play small but can Duke play big?

captmojo
12-01-2007, 09:10 AM
I agree that historically Duke has killed Maryland at the small forward position.

Nelson/Scheyer/Henderson gives Duke a small advantage over Milbourne/Tucker. But by the time conference play roles around the Maryland small forward will be Milbourne/Tucker/GIST. Maryland can play small but can Duke play big?

Ask somebody from Wisconsin.;)

gw67
12-01-2007, 09:30 AM
j_w,

I'm not sure that I see Gist as a small forward although he has a nice jump shot. A problem for the Terps this year is, that unlike Duke, their young players are not ready for prime time. I like Tucker and Milbourne, as well Dupree, Bowie and Burney, but they will need time to develop and grow into Williams' offensive and defensive schemes. In time (late this year or, more likely, next year), I expect these youngsters to be solid contributors. Eventually, I predict that Tucker and Dupree will be very good players and that the other three will be solid complementary players.

gw67

Carlos
12-01-2007, 09:52 AM
I agree that historically Duke has killed Maryland at the small forward position.

Nelson/Scheyer/Henderson gives Duke a small advantage over Milbourne/Tucker. But by the time conference play roles around the Maryland small forward will be Milbourne/Tucker/GIST. Maryland can play small but can Duke play big?

I assume this means that Gist will be spending the Christmas break doing nothing but ball handling drills.