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geeveebee
02-27-2007, 08:11 AM
First of all, Duke can finish no higher than the 3 seed and they'd need an awful lot of help for that to happen. They would need Virginia to beat Virginia Tech, and the other 10 win teams to lose out. Virginia would win the title, Tech would be second, Duke 3rd, and UNC 4th.

To finish 4th, Duke only has to tie with Boston college at 10-6. That means Duke needs to win out, and BC needs to lose to Georgia Tech. Tech is playing for their tournament lives and the game is at Tech, so that is conceivable. Of course, Duke would still need to beat MD and UNC.

Duke and Maryland are tied right now. Maryland gets NC State at MD after the Duke game. Nothing's easy in the ACC, but let's assume Maryland wins that game regardless of the outcome of the Duke game. Should Duke beat them and lose to UNC, they'd finish tied and most likely, MD's win over UNC would give them the tie-breaker sending Duke to the 6th seed.

Basically it comes down to this. If Duke want to avoid playing that first Thursday of the ACC tournament, they have to win out. No other option. Winning out assures them of the 5 seed. And if BC loses, the 4 seed. The 3 seed is probably a pipe dream. Losing one game will most likely send them to the 6 seed and a Thursday night game with NC State.

Let's win out.
prop

mullslaw6383
02-27-2007, 09:43 AM
obviously we want to win out and try to get a bye on Thursday. But a 6 seed may not be all that bad. 1st it would expose our young freshmen to what the ACC Tournament is all about, against a weaker team like Wake or State. 2nd, we would most likely avoid playing the holes again until the ACC Tournament Championship game.

GO DUKE!

feldspar
02-27-2007, 09:46 AM
obviously we want to win out and try to get a bye on Thursday. But a 6 seed may not be all that bad. 1st it would expose our young freshmen to what the ACC Tournament is all about, against a weaker team like Wake or State. 2nd, we would most likely avoid playing the holes again until the ACC Tournament Championship game.

This is my feeling as well. I've got no problem with a 6 seed to get our feet wet, especially as young as this team is and how far of a trip it's going to be to Tampa. We've got the depth to play 4 games in 4 days, especially if we blow out our first round opponent and really spread out the minutes in that game.

Chard
02-27-2007, 10:30 AM
Four games in four days would be a big challenge. If I were the coach I'd want to have a first round bye.

KBCrazie
02-27-2007, 03:24 PM
Ideal scenario would be we win out and BC loses to Tech. We'd be 4, they'd be 5. We'd get the first round bye and face them with fresh legs on Friday. I know it's tough to win three-in-a-row vs. the same team (BC), but I feel that's our best chance to win on Friday.

WIN OUT!!! GTHC!!! 9F!!!

vango
02-27-2007, 03:39 PM
Say we go 1-1 (win vs. MD and lose @ UNC)
Say MD goes 1-1 (lose @ Duke and win vs. NCSU)

We're each 1-1 and both 9-7 in conference.

What is the tie breaker?

Geeveebee, from your post I assume it is a "best wins" scenario? How does that work with an unbalanced schedule?

Just curious...thanks...

geeveebee
02-28-2007, 08:18 AM
Tie breaker rules start with head to head. If Duke and MD split, the tiebreaker goes to success against the highest seed in the standings and going down until one team gains an advantage. It's based on winning percentage, not wins. So 1-1 does beat 0-1 and 1-0 beats 1-1. Maryland will probably win the tiebreaker because of their win over UNC. However if Boston College somehow sneaks ahead of UNC in the standings, Duke's 2 wins against them would be the difference. Not likely, though.

Here is a link to the official tie-break rules:
http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/022607aaa.html

dukeimac
02-28-2007, 08:37 AM
First things first, Duke must beat Maryland tonight, first thins first.

Maryland is coming in on a high and I think they will have a let down but if they don't Duke will be in a tough game.

If Duke looses they will finish 6th and if they win they will finish 5th.

BC is 10-5 and plays a G Tech. At worse they will finish 10-6. This is a possibility for Duke to leap frog BC.

But Duke MUST beat Maryland AND UNC to get 4th with a BC lose. I hope Duke can do it but I think the Maryland game is a 70/30 bet and the UNC game is a 50/50 bet.

I would not mind seeing Duke be 5th or 6th, win the first game and lose the second just to get some extra rest. If they finish 4th the pressure to win will increase and I think they need rest. This disappoint of a lose with them finishing 4th might be tougher on some psyches too.

CMS2478
02-28-2007, 09:16 AM
I think winning 4 games in 4 days will be tough for us........not impossible..........just really tough. Judging from the way the ACC has gone so far this season, you have to assume that even if we play NC State or Wake the first day, it will not be a push-over. I know we beat both of them convincingly, but State has proven what they are capable of and Wake is no slouch. I just don't see us beating any team by 30 in the ACC tourney and being able to use our bench to rest the starters. In the past we were able to do that in the first or second game bc we got up big. I expect most of the ACC tournment games to be close and whoever wins it all will be exhausted from playing so many intense close games. Just my prediction. If we are going to win it all Coach K will have to use that bench!!!

Stray Gator
02-28-2007, 09:42 AM
I think those of you who are saying it would be preferable for Duke to be the #6 seed rather than the #5 seed are overlooking a fact that could be significant: The #5 seed plays in Game 2 on Thursday, which will tip off around 2:30 p.m.; but the #6 seed plays in Game 4 on Thursday--the late game that doesn't tip until about 9:30 p.m. and usually ends near midnight. Even though the winners of both games will have approximately 21 hours before the tip of their quarterfinal games on Friday, the #6 seed is on a schedule not conducive to normal rest. Then they have to play the late game again on Friday. But if they manage to win that game (against the #3 seeded team) they'll be back on the court for a semifinal game by mid-afternoon Saturday. That's pretty grueling for any team, especially one that depends so much on freshmen players who have never experienced the war of attrition that is the ACC Tourney. For that reason alone, I'd prefer the #5 seed to the #6 seed. (Of course, if the stars align so that we could sneak in and grab the #4 seed, all of this agonizing would become moot.)

Stray ~~~;~~~;~http://mudlizard.com/users/icons/emoticons/chomp.gif