Wisconsin scouting report

[dkbaseball]

I'm going to be pretty busy for the next couple of weeks, so thought I'd file this report now. It's based on having spent most of the last six years in Madison and following Bo Ryan's program closely.

This team is ridiculously underrated because they lost their star from last year, Alando Tucker. But my view is that they relied too much on Tucker, who was a terrific player and great leader, but basically a shooting guard without a good outside shot that he was nonetheless auditioning for the NBA. The pieces will fit together much better this year, and this could be Ryan's best team. The pieces include eight guys who played regular minutes in the Big Ten schedule last year, and a freshman class that Ryan says is the most fundamentally sound and ready to play he has ever coached.

For the basic seven-man rotation: in the post you have two six-eleven seniors, with complementary skills. While Brian Butch has never lived up to the McD's AA hype that had Carolina recruiting him so hard, he is capable of going off any game and can score from all over the floor. He also knows how to rebound. Greg Steimsma is a burly guy who can block shots -- had four in one half in their last game. He is a real defensive force if he can stay out of foul trouble -- a big problem in the past, but not so far this year. I believe Bo Ryan does as good a job coaching non-athletic bigs as anybody in the country.

At forward/wing, there are two juniors, again with complementary skills. Joe Krabbenhoft has taken Tucker's place as team leader, a role Tucker groomed him for. He is a weight room warrior and a real roughneck who does all the glue guy things. But he also has skills, and regularly fills in all the stat columns. Marcus Landry is a high-flying athlete, a poor man's Grant Hill. Has a big upside, and many expect him to emerge as a star this year.

There are three guards back from last year's rotation. Senior Michael Flowers started last year, and is a real energy guy who has always been considered a defensive specialist but is competent enough on the offensive end. Gets lots of steals and conversions. He is coming off the bench so far this year, after leaving the team for two weeks, for reasons unknown, though the speculation is that he tried unsuccessfully to force Ryan to give his brother a scholarship.

Ryan has a natural point guard this year, sophomore Trevon Hughes, for the first time since Devin Harris in 2004, and so far he is emerging as a huge star. His line the first game gives some indication of the potential -- 25 points (on 9 for 17), 5 assists (2 turnovers), 5 rebounds, six steals. Following that he was named MVP of a three-game tournament UW won easily.

Ryan, who has been in the game 50 years, calls Hughes the quickest basketball player he has ever seen. Grok on that statement for a minute. I might agree. Certainly, you notice his footwork right away -- sort of poetry in motion, like a Joe Montana. And he has super quick hands -- picked Dominic James clean a couple of times last year in limited minutes. Needless to say, Paulus and company are going to have to be very conscious of taking care of the ball, especially when Hughes and Flowers are on the court together, which will be most of the game.

The third guard from last year's rotation is soph Jason Bohannon (son of Iowa quarterback Gordy Bohannon). He is the team's best outside shooter, and has a very good feel for the game.

An eighth player, junior Kevin Gullickson, has played plenty of minutes since being forced into action as a walk-on freshman due to shorthandedness. He is a burly six-seven inside player, competent enough, but it looks as if two very talented freshman bigs have passed him in the rotation. Jon Leuer is six-ten with real good footwork, who apparently is a star in waiting. Keaton Nankivil is a very ready-to-go power player who is quite fundamentally sound. When these two replace Butch and Steimsma next year, the team may be even better, if Hughes and Landry don't get tempted away by the NBA.

When this team finds its confidence, I believe it is a solid top ten unit. They usually don't run, and it will be interesting to see if Duke can dictate the pace. Occasionally Ryan will turn his athletes loose, as in the regional final in '05 against the Heels, when they hung in there the whole game. If it does turn into a running game, it will be interesting to see what Hughes does, as he will be the most made-for-running player on the floor. The trick for UW is getting the rest of the team to catch up with him. The bench, of course, is as deep as Duke's, and Ryan is probably more likely than K to make full use of it.

I think this could be an awfully interesting match-up.

[Troublemaker]

Thanks, man. We'll need to bump this thread next week. It's good to hear that Duke will be challenged in the Challenge, not that I expected any less from Bo Ryan. BTW, have you seen him dance to Soulja Boy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BAFKGhHiLII . He automatically made my top 5 favorite coaches list for that.

[ugadevil]

BTW, have you seen him dance to Soulja Boy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BAFKGhHiLII . He automatically made my top 5 favorite coaches list for that.

Wow! After watching that video, Wisconsin is now my favorite team in the Big Ten.

[gw67]

The Washington Post had an article about Bo Ryan a couple of years ago before Maryland played Wisconsin. He came across as a good guy who loves basketball and had worked his way up from a high school coach to an assistant at a small college to a coach at a small college to a coach at Wisconsin. He doesn’t just say that he doesn’t assign positions to his players, he proves it with his 1-4 offense where players take turns rotating into the post position. His teams generally don’t have McDonald’s players (Butch is exception) but they value the ball, take good shots and play team defense. I would like to see them play before the Duke game but, in any case, I wouldn’t be surprised if they are better than last year even though they lost their best player (sorta like Duke).

gw67

[phaedrus]

I hate to disagree with you, since you have obviously put much more thought into this than me, but I don't see the Badgers as a top-flight team this year. I live in Madison as well and have seen them play a few times this year (and a lot last year).

I certainly disagree that losing Alando Tucker is anything but devastating. In my view, he alone is the reason this team overachieved last year. They had trouble scoring even then - I hardly see where the points are coming from to replace him. Besides that, I thought that Chris Rock - I mean Kammron Taylor - was far and away their second most valuable player last year.

So what does that leave them with? They have a big, experienced frontcourt with a lot to prove. Butch and Stiemsa are solid, but neither can be counted on for points. They are solid rebounders and defenders but not game-changers. Landry is rangy and athletic but lacks the basketball skills to take advantage of it. I like Bohannon and Krabbenhoft, but they really have to grow this year for this team to be successful. Hughes, as you mention, is maybe their most interesting player. He really stood out athletically in the first game I saw, which made me wonder if the Badgers had scored a top freshman that I hadn't noticed - when I realized he was a sophomore whom I hadn't even noticed as a freshman, because he played 7 mpg and scored 1 ppg.

I think you have been deceived by the Badgers' early schedule. Most of their games have been against NC Central-level teams, with the exception of Colorado, who is merely the worst team in the Big 12. I'd like to see this team surprise me, and I think they can if some of their players show a lot of improvement. Certainly they will be an interesting team to follow. But I see them as a middle of the Big 10 team this year, and I would be almost shocked if they scored 60 points against us.

[juise]

Ryan has a natural point guard this year, sophomore Trevon Hughes, for the first time since Devin Harris in 2004, and so far he is emerging as a huge star. His line the first game gives some indication of the potential -- 25 points (on 9 for 17), 5 assists (2 turnovers), 5 rebounds, six steals. Following that he was named MVP of a three-game tournament UW won easily.

You piqued my curiosity, so I found a YouTube video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vXsoTWyWUqg) of that first game performance. A brief look at scores makes it appear as though Wisonsin has blown out their first four opponents, but the video shows that IPFW hung with them for a while. In any event, I think they'll be a good test for Duke with a couple strong post players and a quick point guard. I'm looking forward to it. Thanks for the preview, dkbaseball.

[dkbaseball]

I hate to disagree with you, since you have obviously put much more thought into this than me, but I don't see the Badgers as a top-flight team this year. I live in Madison as well and have seen them play a few times this year (and a lot last year).

I certainly disagree that losing Alando Tucker is anything but devastating. In my view, he alone is the reason this team overachieved last year. They had trouble scoring even then - I hardly see where the points are coming from to replace him. Besides that, I thought that Chris Rock - I mean Kammron Taylor - was far and away their second most valuable player last year.

So what does that leave them with? They have a big, experienced frontcourt with a lot to prove. Butch and Stiemsa are solid, but neither can be counted on for points. They are solid rebounders and defenders but not game-changers. Landry is rangy and athletic but lacks the basketball skills to take advantage of it. I like Bohannon and Krabbenhoft, but they really have to grow this year for this team to be successful. Hughes, as you mention, is maybe their most interesting player. He really stood out athletically in the first game I saw, which made me wonder if the Badgers had scored a top freshman that I hadn't noticed - when I realized he was a sophomore whom I hadn't even noticed as a freshman, because he played 7 mpg and scored 1 ppg.

I think you have been deceived by the Badgers' early schedule. Most of their games have been against NC Central-level teams, with the exception of Colorado, who is merely the worst team in the Big 12. I'd like to see this team surprise me, and I think they can if some of their players show a lot of improvement. Certainly they will be an interesting team to follow. But I see them as a middle of the Big 10 team this year, and I would be almost shocked if they scored 60 points against us.

Well, you have an advantage over me in that I left Madison in February and haven't seen this bunch play. To some extent, I'm basing my opinion on potential that wasn't permitted to be developed last year because Tucker had to have a certain number of shots each game.

Keep in mind that Ryan is a pay-your-dues guy, and usually starts his seniors. So while Kam Taylor was a good, quick player who could get his own shot (and was the guy besides Tucker who was given that privilege), by the end of the season I think Hughes will be seen as a big upgrade at that position, mainly because he is a natural point. Taylor is still looking for his first assist, and Flowers wasn't a point guard either. Hughes is going to penetrate and dish almost at will.

Outside shooting can certainly be a concern, as it was last year. While Butch can go off in any game, he can also disappear in any game, and Ryan yanks him quickly when it appears that is going to happen. If he and Bohannon aren't on the court, three point shooting is a possibility, but definitely not a strength. There is another outside shooting option -- the third freshman who I didn't mention, wing Tim Jarmuscz. He beat Bohannon in the three-point contest at the Red-White game. He has been injured, and there was some thought he would redshirt. But that isn't going to happen, and Ryan seems to love him, so he may get into the rotation by the Duke game.

If Steimsma can stay out of foul trouble, he's going to be a big upgrade over Chappell as designated interior defender, because he has the shot blocking ability.

Krabbenhoft has scoring ability that he always kept under wraps in deference to Tucker. I'm a bit higher than you are on Landry's ball skills, though comparing him to Grant Hill was definitely a big stretch in any category but athleticism. There's no reason why these two shouldn't be solid scorers as starters.

And if scoring becomes a big concern, Leuer apparently has lots of potential, more than they thought when they recruited him. He dropped 20+ on Edgewood in an exhibition. Apparently, he's a Butch, with good footwork and more energy.

Defensively, this should be the best team Duke faces this year. They're giving up about 45 points a game this season, admittedly to a bunch of hamburgers. We'll know a little more after they play Georgia this weekend.

Maybe I'm looking more at potential than I should be, but I think this group has a lot, as well as plenty of experience. They also have very complementary skill sets, not unlike this year's Duke team. And don't underestimate Ryan. The first group he took on at UW wasn't supposed to have anything but an outside shooter from New Zealand, and indeed, they looked pretty sorry early in the season. But they ended up winning the Big Ten.

[badgerfan]

As a Badger fan, I have to agree with dkbaseball. Wisconsin is usually underrated every season due to the previous season's star leaves and everyone assumes no one will pick up the slack. It happened when Kirk Penney (1st Team B10, that outside shooter from New Zealand the dk mentioned) left, when Devin Harris (B10 POY, 2nd Team AA) left, when Mike Wilkinson (1st Team B10) left, and now when Alando Tucker (B10 POY, 1st Team AA) leaves.

Tonight they beat Georgia 68-49 but it wasn't as solid a win as that looks. They were actually down 32-23 at halftime, due to 25% shooting (poor shot selection) and 10 turnovers, overall very sloppy for a Bo Ryan team. But they opened the second half on an 11-0 run and finished it on a 31-6 run. Here's my breakdown of the guys that would see playing time...

PG - Trevon Hughes 6'1" (SO) = PG, the definition of a NYC PG, he defends and passes well, has great vision, and can take it to the hoop at any time, in his 5 starts this season has 19.4 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 3.2 apg, 2.6 spg, and leads team in 3PT% at 42%

SG - Joe Krabbenhoft 6'8" (JR) = SF/PF/SG, <- as you can tell, he's very versatile, scrappiest player on the floor at all times, good enough ballhandler to be able to break a press on his own, 7.4 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 3.4 apg, 5.7:1 A/TO ratio, and leads team in FT% at 87% so far

SF - Marcus Landry 6'7" (JR) = SF/PF, great shot blocker, most athletic player on team, is talented enough in the post both on off and def to play PF but often disappeared in games (could be due to Alando Tucker and Kammron Taylor's presence on offense), 9.4 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 1.8 apg, 1.4 bpg, and leads team in FG% at 58% so far

PF - Brian Butch 6'11" (SR) = PF/C, of the European big man mold - knocks down 3's, adequate in the post, much improved stamina has led to 7 minutes a game more but still a bit of a liability on D, has 14.4 ppg, 10.2 rpg, and 1 apg so far

C - Greg Stiemsma 6'11" (SR) = will probably be the best shot blocker in the Big 10 this season, knocks down 15 fters and get some putbacks regularly but isn't a big threat on offense but is a deft passer from the top of the key into the post, 4 ppg, 5 rpg, 2.4 bpg, and 1.6 apg so far

6 - Michael Flowers 6'3" (SR) = SG/PG, lock-down defender and was 3rd in Big 10 in stls last yr, a bit wild offensively with questionable uncontrolled drives, has 9 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2.8 apg, and 2.4 spg so far

7 - Jason Bohannon 6'2" (SO) = SG/PG, below-average defender cuz of knee injury, has ability to knock down jumpers from anywhere but is 3-pt specialist (41% so far), led Big 10 freshman in FT% last season, 6.4 ppg and 1.2 apg so far

8 - Jon Leuer 6'10" (True FR) = SF/PF, deceivingly strong as he looks like a twig, great slasher and shooter for his size, quick enough to defend an avg SF but probably not strong enough to guard an avg PF, 4.4 ppg and 2 rpg so far

9 - Keaton Nankivil 6'9" (True FR) = PF/C, offensively he's the best post player on the team with great footwork and finishing ability, mirrors Butch in ability to hit 3's, average defender, 7 points, 9 boards, 2 asts, and 1 blk in 25 min so far

10 - Kevin Gullickson 6'7" (Junior) = PF/SF, very smart player on both ends of the floor, doesn't make mistakes but won't make a great play either, 4 pts, 2 boards, 1 ast, 1 stl in 28 min so far

I honestly can't say what I expect out of this game. It depends heavily on which team's pace the game is played at and how the other team adjusts to it. I think Wisconsin would be better at running with Duke than Duke slowing into a mostly half-court game with Wisconsin, but who knows. If Trevon Hughes plays well, I like the Badgers' chances but if he plays like he did tonight (5 TOs and more shots than points) they lose.

[ikiru36]

Just wanted to thank you all (including, perhaps especially, Badger Fan). This is a lot of useful and interesting material re: the Badgers and I'm now even more excited about the game!

Clearly, it has the potential to be a very good challenge and test for the team, particularly as regards issues of dictating tempo, handling interior size and further working on our half-court offensive efficiency (always a challenge against Wisconsin, it seems.)

Go Duke!!!!!! Go Devils!!!!!! Go ACC ('cept holes)!!!!!! GTHCGTH!!!!!!

[Carlos]

I think the jury is still very much out on the Badgers. Any time you have a team that lost as much as they did from last year (Tucker and Taylor accounted for nearly half of the team's points) you're going to need to see them against some real competition in order to figure out what to expect for the year.

Thus far this season their best win is against a Georgia team that is anything but strong. The Bulldogs lost their top three players from a team that went 8-8 in the SEC last year. For perspective the Dawgs were only able to defeat Elon by 10 at home before traveling to Wisconsin where they lost by 18 as noted above.

Other than that, the Badgers' wins have been against Indiana-Purdue Fort Wayne, Savannah State, Florida A&M, and Colorado. Here are the wins for that group:


Manchester (IPFW)
Carver Bible College (Sav. St, FAMU)
South Carolina Aiken (Sav. St.)
Florida A&M (Sav. St., Col.)
Emmanuel (Sav. St.)
Kennesaw (FAMU)
Savannah State (Col.)
Colorado Christian (Col.)


In short, it's not exactly murder's row for both Wisconsin or their opponents thus far. Pomeroy has their Strength of Schedule at 290 out of 341 right now.

Hughes is a nice player, but he's going from playing under 10 mpg to being the team's leading scorer. That's a lot to ask from anyone and his numbers are likely inflated by the level of competition. His assist to turnover ratio is hovering around 1:1 which is never a great sign for point guard.

Butch has all the tools but has never had the drive to become the star that he's supposed to be. He's the kind of guy you just don't know what to expect out of. He hung 27 points on Aaron Gray and Pitt last season and then disappeared in other big games.

The biggest thing that Wisconsin has going for them is Ryan who is really a fabulous coach. It should be an interesting matchup from a style perspective as Ryan has traditionally preferred a slower pace.

[southfew]

The idea that Bo Ryan prefers a slower pace is not exactly accurate.

From the Big Ten Wonk: (http://bigtenwonk.blogspot.com/2006/11/wisconsin-has-shot-if-they-can-shoot.html)

Another part of the Ryan script is his willingness to play at the pace that works best in that particular game. The Badgers still suffer from a misconception that they go slow; on the contrary, they actually play at a surprisingly fast pace. Here's a snippet from the industry-standard Blue Ribbon Yearbook:

Ryan said it wasn't a matter of changing the team's style, but rather taking advantage of opportunities. "Sometimes it's just about the number of possessions you have, or whether you're playing with the lead or playing from behind," he said.

"We've never held the ball. We've always tried to get the easiest basket you can get, and if it comes in transition, we'll go get it. But sometimes the way the tempo dictates the game, your number of possessions is higher. With me, it's always about the number of points per possession. We scored one point per possession last year pretty steady, and we were happy with that."

[Saratoga2]

Just wanted to thank you all (including, perhaps especially, Badger Fan). This is a lot of useful and interesting material re: the Badgers and I'm now even more excited about the game!

Clearly, it has the potential to be a very good challenge and test for the team, particularly as regards issues of dictating tempo, handling interior size and further working on our half-court offensive efficiency (always a challenge against Wisconsin, it seems.)

Go Duke!!!!!! Go Devils!!!!!! Go ACC ('cept holes)!!!!!! GTHCGTH!!!!!!

Wisconsin has the advantage on the boards and will no doubt get a lot of extra opportunities and second chance points. They are even bigger and are also as experienced as Illinois.

To counter the Wisconsin advantage, I believe Duke has to pressure the ball and cut down the Wisconsin shooting percentage. In addition, Duke has to drive and dish and hit the ourside shots. We have at least 4 players capable of hitting a decent percentage from three. We also have to get much better from the free throw line. Percentages in the 50's will lose this game. Singler and Scheyer are capable of 90 %, while the others have to be at least in the mis 70's to be competitive.

It will be interesting to watch. Hope we don't foul out our bigs.

[SilkyJ]

It will be interesting to watch. Hope we don't foul out our bigs.

certainly a concern, but singler has shown himself to be very heady and lance has shown marked improvement in this area (and other areas) from last year so I'm not worried.

Zoub should see considerable minutes too, although its clear that K's best (or maybe the better word is favored) all-around lineup is with Singler & Lance on the floor, so it would be encouraging to see them be able to keep pace on the boards and on defense with these taller guys.

Not specifically related to this game, but I also want to see greg shoot more. He hasn't shot great so far, but he's been fine and we know he is a really good shooter so I'd like to see him look for his jumper a little more.

[phaedrus]

Good pre-game article from Madison.

http://www.madison.com/tct/sports/uw/basketball/men/258750

Someone should turn this into the official pre-game/in-game thread.

[kramerbr]

This is quite interesting. If Coach K did this.......................

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BAFKGhHiLII

[tbyers11]

It will be interesting to watch. Hope we don't foul out our bigs.

Foul trouble is always a concern, but the offensive games of Wisconsin's bigs (especially Butch and Steimsma) aren't of the typical back-to-the basket variety. Because of the principles of Bo Ryan's swing offense (all players rotate through the post) and the big mans' skill sets (Butch is much more of a European mold and Steimsma's best offensive weapon is a 15 foot jumper and his passing skills from the high post), Duke's big men are not going to be guarding players down low on the block as frequently as they would against bigs like Hansbrough or Hickson.

[SilkyJ]

I honestly can't say what I expect out of this game. It depends heavily on which team's pace the game is played at and how the other team adjusts to it. I think Wisconsin would be better at running with Duke than Duke slowing into a mostly half-court game with Wisconsin, but who knows. If Trevon Hughes plays well, I like the Badgers' chances but if he plays like he did tonight (5 TOs and more shots than points) they lose.

I think you are saying that you think Wisconsin would have an easier time adjusting (successfully, meaning well enough to win) to Duke's running pace then Duke adjusting (successfully) to a half-court game with Wisconsin. I'm not sure if I agree with that although I do think Wisconsin would want to turn this into a half court game with total pts around 120-130.

[badgerfan]

I think you are saying that you think Wisconsin would have an easier time adjusting (successfully, meaning well enough to win) to Duke's running pace then Duke adjusting (successfully) to a half-court game with Wisconsin. I'm not sure if I agree with that although I do think Wisconsin would want to turn this into a half court game with total pts around 120-130.

Yes, I'm saying I think Wisconsin has a better chance at winning if the total points are 160-180 than Duke does if it's 110-130.

[whereinthehellami]

Starters
Hughes SO 6-1
Krabbenhoft JR 6-7
Landry JR 6-7
Butch SR 6-11
Steimsma SR 6-11

Bench, over 10 MPG
Flowers SR 6-2
Bohannon SO 6-2
Leuer FR 6-10

Notables

Wisconsin as a team is shooting 46% Fg, 76% FT, and 34% from 3.
Duke is shooting 52% FG, 71% FT, and 42% from 3.
Hughes leads the team in MPG (32), PPG (19), and 3 pt % (42).
Butch averages a double double, PPG (14) and RPG (10, leads team).


Key to game
Hughes is the key to the game. Wisconsin struggles when he is out of the game which is why he plays over 30 MPG. I gotta think that this bodes well for Duke and can be summed up with three words....Nelson, depth, and tempo. I predict that Wisconsin will look good early, maybe even lead late in the first half and as Hughes runs out of gas, so does the Badgers.

[mepanchin]

Duke played 65 possessions against Illinois, who gave up .91 ppp last year, and scored 79 points (1.2 ppp). I think this Duke team doesn't have trouble scoring in any situation - the issue is whether we protect the ball or not.