I Will Say It

[NYC Duke Fan]

I am sure that there will be posters who will criticize what I am posting and put a ," spin ", on it, but I will say it anyway.

A Duke fan is in some ways similar to a New York Yankee fan in that you get spoiled if your team does not win the whole thing. A Yankee fan feels that if his team does not win the World Series that it has been a disappointing season. While I do not feel that if Duke does not win the NCAA Tournament it has been a disappointing season, the fact that Duke , for the first time in a while, has virtually no chance at all the win the tournament has made for disappointment.

Are we spoiled as Duke fans? The answer is probably YES

Noone is saying that at the beginning of the season there were thoughts of winning the tournament, although there were some who had thought that Duke was the second best team in the ACC, but I think now as the season is coming to a close reality is setting in.

Right now, I do not think that anyone would be surprised if Duke lost the first game of the NCAA tournament....how many would have thought that at the beginning of the seasaon?

I am not going to specify the reason why the expectations were not met, Duke's deficiencies have been posted all year.

While I am sure that most of you will not admit publically that it is a disappointment that Duke cannot win the tournament or even get to the Final Four, in your heart of hearts I think that you know that I am correct.

The final thought is why will Duke be in a much better position next year to win the Tournament ? What deficiencies that were exposed this year will be corrected next year? Is the addition of Singler, Smith and King going to do it?
Forget Patterson, ( all indications are that he is going to Florida or Kentucky).

Will players improve next year..of course. Every great college team has at least one player who will say, "I will not let us lose,,,get on my back". Duke does not have one and I do not know if they will next year.

Maybe it is time that we stop being Yankee fans

[hurleyfor3]

We need to be MORE like Yankees fans in the respect that Yankees fans don't give a damn what others think about them.

[CMS2478]

I actually agree with you. If Josh comes back, it will help a lot. But really what we lack this year is a go-to-guy and I don't think any of the guys are going to fit that bill. Singler, maybe but we have put faith in Freshman before and they came up short and then we are upset that they are a dissapointment. When in reality they are not a dissapointment, we just expect too much too soon. I guess our hope is that Josh comes back and we have our whole team back and we can gel together and become something special without a primary scorer.:confused:

[dukelifer]

For a while there this season- I wasn't sure Duke would even get into the tourney. They are in- so I am pretty happy. If they win a game there- I will be happier- If they win two- happier still. So I have already lowered my expectations for this team. Next year- who knows - we are not there yet.

This current team has probably put pressure on themselves to be at the level of the teams over the past 7 or 8 years. If not for a Duhon rib injury- Duke would have won 8 ACC Championships in a row. This team wanted to be that good- but were not. They probably did not enjoy themselves as much as the very young Duke teams in the past- who took their lumps and then got much better. By the time they were done, the very young 82-83 team eventually won an NCAA game, an ACC championship and got to the NCAA final. But they did not have the recent "tradition" to live up to. They helped build it. This team is not playing with that hunger. It is hard to live up to the past. But you can never tell how a team will grow over time. We just have to wait and see. I expect this team will grow, will get better and will get hungry.

[Jeffrey236]

I'm not sure coming back would mean much, at least not if it's the same Josh. For all the hoopla about his multiple talents, he's severly lacking any offensive punch (sorry, I know that word is loaded these days). Aside from dunks and a drop step move that works once in a while (but which teams are increasingly familiar with), he just can't score. And as teams understand he has no outside shot, they're stopping his drives fairly easily. I'm sorry, but we don't need a big guy racking up 3-4 assists every night. I'd rather see 20 points from him.

We also need a legit point guard. I actually grew fonder of Greg as the season progressed, because he does have the heart of a warrior, and he's turned out to be a very good scorer. Unlike earlier in the year, I now want to see him on the court. But he's not a point guard, and he can't defend any guard with medium or better quickness. He may have a future in college as a small forward or off-guard. But we need a quick ballhandling guard who can also contain the Lawsons of the world.

Sorry for the pessimism, but after seeing the same movie 30 times this year, it's hard to not understand the script.

[CMS2478]

I don't think you are being a pessamist, but rather a realist. Your post was actually pretty darn accurate. (Darn is not a bad word is it?)

[throatybeard]

We need to be MORE like Yankees fans in the respect that Yankees fans don't give a damn what others think about them.

That's not a bad idea. A problem with is that we may have to many high self-monitor Southerners in the fanbase to make that a realistic goal.

[devildownunder]

We need to be MORE like Yankees fans in the respect that Yankees fans don't give a damn what others think about them.

I don't want to be like most of the Yankee fans I have met. They are obnoxious and overbearing and frequently try to tell me that, as a Mets fan, I really do have an inferiority complex WRT their team and them! I tell them I'm not from New York and the rivalry really doesn't affect me that way ... they will hear none of it. I am jealous and envious and want to be just like them.

So no, I think I'll pass on being like the Yankee fans. One thing I will say, though, the Yankees make the playoffs every year -- that's the elite 8. As long as people are going to hate us and srutinize us like they do the yankees, it would be awesome if we actually matched that level of success. It sucks getting the bad without the good.

Not that I'm leaving or getting down on K or the program. I'm just sayin' :)

[devilinindy]

One thing Duke fans need to remember is that Coach K has tried to build the program to show class, and he would expect nothing less from the fans. Yankee fans, for the most part, are so obnoxious that they just make me hate the Yankees because of the fans.
I'm glad Duke fans are classier and smarter than Kentucky fans also. I truely fear for Tubby Smith's life from listening to sports call in shows on the radio. The Kentucky fans really hate the job Tubby has done. That's spoiled. I'd like to think if Duke had another year like this year, which is pretty good overall, but not up to par with what we have come to expect, that the fans wouldn't be calling for Coach K to be fired, or worse. Kentucky fans can't wait to get rid of Tubby. Who would want that job?
Coach K has done it the right way for his entire career, so let's not sink to "not caring what others think". Let's make them know that we support our team through good times and bad, and we won't comprimise our values.

[NashvilleDevil]

To everyone who does not think Duke has a go to guy for next year. What about Gerald Henderson? I think this kid is going to be the one that Duke relies on for scoring next year and I think you will see him do that in the tournament as well.

[CMS2478]

I was one of those guys who said we wouldn't have a go-to-guy next year and I guess I got caught up in the debate over the incoming class and completely forgot about GH:o (or maybe it was bc he didn't play last night) I can admit when I am wrong and I stand corrected and yes I too think he could be the man.

[mcdukie]

You have said what I have been saying all along, we need a legit point guard. Paulus is a good scorer with a lot of heart but not a break down the defense with speed type of point guard we need. He also has trouble guarding quick guards, not to put all of our blame on him.

[MarkD83]

First some observations and then some words of optimism

1) Freshman will defer to upperclassmen until they get to know them and feel comfortable in the system
2) For the past 2 years prior to this year Duke has done alot of JJ and Shelden watching on offense
3) For the past 2 years prior to this year Duke has relied on Shelden to bail them out when they took risks on the defensive end
4) The rest of the ACC has been waiting until this year to take advantage of any Duke weaknesses and they did. Duke did well against teams outside of the ACC that are not as familiar with Duke.

So how do these observations lead to optimism

As a result of 1 and 2 no one on this years team really knew how to step up and take control on offense. Too many times players would drive to the basket and be looking to kick the ball out. Other ACC teams have seen this for years and know how to defend against it (see item 4). Teams outside the conference who are not familiar with this went with their basketball instincts which is to stop the ball (so Duke goes 14-1 outside the ACC -a bit of a stretch but you get the idea). (For a recent example, how many times did a Duke player have the ball going to the the basket and not shoot but instead pass it back out for an NCSU steal or deflection).

So what will happen next year on offense:

I expect that the coaches will tell the players to be much more aggressive individually on offense. (Jon we need 20 points from you a night, Gerald we need 20 points from you a night.) This is not an adjustment that is easy to do during the season. If you are used to defering to another player for a good portion of the season you can not just turn on a switch and be the "go-to" guy. This is an adjustment that needs to be made in the offseason.

Coach K has said recently that the defensive woes have been due to lack of communication. This results from number 1 and 3 up above. If you have a defensive player of the year to back you up you don't need to talk. In addition, if you are willing to defer to others on the offensive end of the floor you are perhaps willing to defer on the defensive end. I again believe that the coaches will tell the players to take charge of the situation when things go wrong. This is once again an offseason adjustment.

My vote for the one player that will fill that role....Gerald Henderson.

I can already hear the argument. "I only have a few chances to play in the ACC tournament and missed one of my chances last year. So if I see any of you slacking off I am going to get right in your face and tell you to play hard." As a sophmore GH can do this because he won't care if he offends anyone. As a freshman you tend to defer (see 1).

[_Gary]

So no, I think I'll pass on being like the Yankee fans. One thing I will say, though, the Yankees make the playoffs every year -- that's the elite 8. As long as people are going to hate us and srutinize us like they do the yankees, it would be awesome if we actually matched that level of success. It sucks getting the bad without the good.

Well said! Championships is where the analogy breaks down. And it really does stink to get all the bad [i.e. the hatred] without getting the good [i.e. the national championships to "validate" the reason for the hatred].

Gary

[hurleyfor3]

Well said! Championships is where the analogy breaks down. And it really does stink to get all the bad [i.e. the hatred] without getting the good [i.e. the national championships to "validate" the reason for the hatred].

Gary

We've won a championship in this millenium. The Yankees haven't.

[imagepro]

"A problem with is that we may have to many high self-monitor Southerners in the fanbase to make that a realistic goal." as said by throaty

ummm, is that a good or a bad thing?????

[Classof06]

I've been on Paulus all year, but he's played very well the 2nd half of the season and should start next year. To say he's more suited as an off-guard or small forward is just ludicrous. As far as this team goes, though, they certainly lack the go-to scorer; enter Gerald. I think Gerald is going to end up the centerpiece of this Freshman class. I'm not as sold on Scheyer as a lot of other people are, even though he's had a phenomenal freshman year. I just don't ever see Jon being the focal point of our offense, as he still lacks the ability to create his own shot. It seems like since the first UNC game, Henderson has really picked it up while Scheyer has been seemingly less assertive on the offensive end. I didn't realize how much Gerald had come along until I saw the offense suffer last night without him. As far as Josh goes, he's never realized how important he is to this team. Last night, in the 2nd half, he got the ball in the post, made an aggressive move and scored. Jimmy Dykes, the color guy said "McRoberts needs to understand this is what this team desperately needs out of him". It was too true but why has it taken so long? The kid took only 7 shots against UNC last Sunday. On defense, he fails to understand that the stupid fouls getting him into 1st half foul trouble absolutely kill us; Lance would've had a totally different freshman year had he understood that earlier as well. The worst part about it all is that Josh is probably going to bolt after this year, even though he is miles and miles away from being ready. IMHO, I'm not so sure Josh leaving is necessarily a bad thing in a few respects. Though if he stays, we have the pieces for a very successful season...

[hurleyfor3]

"A problem with is that we may have to many high self-monitor Southerners in the fanbase to make that a realistic goal." as said by throaty

ummm, is that a good or a bad thing?????

If it's a bad thing, you can always move.

[bhd28]

I don't want to be like most of the Yankee fans I have met. They are obnoxious and overbearing and frequently try to tell me that, as a Mets fan, I really do have an inferiority complex WRT their team and them! I tell them I'm not from New York and the rivalry really doesn't affect me that way ... they will hear none of it. I am jealous and envious and want to be just like them.

So no, I think I'll pass on being like the Yankee fans. One thing I will say, though, the Yankees make the playoffs every year -- that's the elite 8. As long as people are going to hate us and srutinize us like they do the yankees, it would be awesome if we actually matched that level of success. It sucks getting the bad without the good.

Not that I'm leaving or getting down on K or the program. I'm just sayin' :)

Elite 8? Maybe you should look at the percentages. How many baseball teams are there? 30? That is 8/30 or in the top 26%. There are like 300+ D1 teams. If duke is 60/300 that is still top 20%. Making the NCAA tourney is as good or better than makikng the MLB playoffs. (I do wish there were more titles in Dukes history... and if it was a 5 or 7 game series for the NCAA championship, I think we would probably have more titles.)

[mgtr]

While it is true there are 300+ D1 teams, how many have a legitimate shot? Probably 100 tops. The NCAA really ought to take a cue from football, and have Division 1A basketball. Of course, the reason the other 200 exist is to be fodder for the good schools, and pump up their W-L record. Maybe the NCAA ought to only count W-L records among the top 100 teams. I wonder what would have become of Clemson's 17-0 start then?
The point is that the top 20% of 300 is not any great shakes, due to the surplus of bottom feeders.

[_Gary]

We've won a championship in this millenium. The Yankees haven't.

If you aren't counting 2000, I guess that's correct. But it's a tad convenient to use that as your starting point. I believe they won something like 4 out 5 between '96 and 2000. Not that I'm happy about that, because I'm not a Yankees fan.

Gary

[bhd28]

While it is true there are 300+ D1 teams, how many have a legitimate shot? Probably 100 tops. The NCAA really ought to take a cue from football, and have Division 1A basketball. Of course, the reason the other 200 exist is to be fodder for the good schools, and pump up their W-L record. Maybe the NCAA ought to only count W-L records among the top 100 teams. I wonder what would have become of Clemson's 17-0 start then?
The point is that the top 20% of 300 is not any great shakes, due to the surplus of bottom feeders.

Yeah, I can think of a few MLB teams that should probably become a new group of Class AAAA teams as well (you know there are 5 or 6 teams every year that have NO chance of a world series title)... but we have to use realistic qualifiers and actually compare the number of teams in each league, don't we? Then again, we are frustrated, and this is a message board, so what the heck.

Lets say there are about 40 NCAA teams with a 'shot' at a title this year. We are ranked 20-30ish. Oh no, we are horrible! :eek: Just kidding.

[captmojo]

It is after all just a game and we still have another shot in the national tournament with a full compliment of players to cheer for. Never forget, win or lose, the other teams (especially tarholes) always suck.

[jimsumner]

I'm not so quick to dismiss the "bottom feeders". There was a time when Gonzaga was a bottom feeder. How good was Winthrop twenty years ago? Duke once lost to Eastern Michigan in an NCAA Tournament and it wasn't that long ago. Wagner, anyone? One of Bobby Cremins' best Tech teams lost to Southern University in the NCAAs. Elon beat Clemson last season. App State beat Virginia this season, Marshall beat Virginia Tech. How'd Duke do against these teams.

Admittedly George Mason, Bucknell, Weber State, Richmond, UNC-Wilmington, Vermont, Hampton, Cleveland State, Valpo and numerous others don't have the resources to compete with the big dogs year in and year out but they do take a big bite more often than maybe we realize and those upsets give college basketball much of its texture and much of its appeal.

[Clipsfan]

We also need a legit point guard. I actually grew fonder of Greg as the season progressed, because he does have the heart of a warrior, and he's turned out to be a very good scorer. Unlike earlier in the year, I now want to see him on the court. But he's not a point guard, and he can't defend any guard with medium or better quickness. He may have a future in college as a small forward or off-guard. But we need a quick ballhandling guard who can also contain the Lawsons of the world.

I disagree with you on several points, as I do think that Paulus is a good PG. Your knock on his PG abilities appears to be on the defensive end, as he does see the floor well and makes good passes. As has been said before, Duke guards aggressively on the perimiter, which means that quick guards will get past the perimiter defenders. I watched the UCLA game yesterday, and Collison and Afflalo (considered one of the best defenders in the college game) were both driven on several times due to playing a similar style of defense. Paulus isn't as quick as those guys, but does an admirable job with his assignment. There is no way that he can switch to guarding the 3 as you suggest, given the huge size difference he would be giving up.

[devildownunder]

Elite 8? Maybe you should look at the percentages. How many baseball teams are there? 30? That is 8/30 or in the top 26%. There are like 300+ D1 teams. If duke is 60/300 that is still top 20%. Making the NCAA tourney is as good or better than makikng the MLB playoffs. (I do wish there were more titles in Dukes history... and if it was a 5 or 7 game series for the NCAA championship, I think we would probably have more titles.)


The percentages are extremely misleading in this case. I think that it's much more accurate to draw the comparison between making the first round of the baseball playoffs and reaching the elite 8 in college bball because in both cases you are 3 steps away from the title; largely because I think degree of prestige is similar. That's when the games get really, really big.

[devildownunder]

I'm not so quick to dismiss the "bottom feeders". There was a time when Gonzaga was a bottom feeder. How good was Winthrop twenty years ago? Duke once lost to Eastern Michigan in an NCAA Tournament and it wasn't that long ago. Wagner, anyone? One of Bobby Cremins' best Tech teams lost to Southern University in the NCAAs. Elon beat Clemson last season. App State beat Virginia this season, Marshall beat Virginia Tech. How'd Duke do against these teams.

Admittedly George Mason, Bucknell, Weber State, Richmond, UNC-Wilmington, Vermont, Hampton, Cleveland State, Valpo and numerous others don't have the resources to compete with the big dogs year in and year out but they do take a big bite more often than maybe we realize and those upsets give college basketball much of its texture and much of its appeal.

but in any one year there only a handful of teams who have a real shot at the title, just like in baseball.