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NCSU&UNCgrad
11-17-2007, 01:17 PM
What do you think Duke's formula for success needs to be this season? Considering Coach K's personnel, Duke should be able to beat anyone at anytime if the team can:

45% 2pt FG
36% 3pt FG
75% FT
<15% of possessions result in turnovers
30% of all rebounds are offensive
Total rebounds are within 11 of the opponent's total
85+ possessions based on Kenpom's formula for adjusted pace
Apply 40 mins of pressure on their PG and perimeter
Avoid silly fouls.

If Duke can accomplish each of these during a game, they will not lose.

pfrduke
11-17-2007, 03:31 PM
What do you think Duke's formula for success needs to be this season? Considering Coach K's personnel, Duke should be able to beat anyone at anytime if the team can:

45% 2pt FG
36% 3pt FG
75% FT
<15% of possessions result in turnovers
30% of all rebounds are offensive
Total rebounds are within 11 of the opponent's total
85+ possessions based on Kenpom's formula for adjusted pace
Apply 40 mins of pressure on their PG and perimeter
Avoid silly fouls.

If Duke can accomplish each of these during a game, they will not lose.

My comments on the three things bolded above:

1) Considering that only 5 teams in the past four years have a turnover rate under 15%, asking that Duke do this in every game might be a little much (although I guess you're right in the sense that, if they do take such good care of the ball, they should be winning). Anything in the <20% range would be excellent, but the Devils will probably end up closer to 22%.

2) Duke's offensive rebounding numbers should be better than 30%. 30% is not very good (it's in the bottom 1/5 of the country). Duke last year was around 36.6, and this year's team looks to be even stronger in that category (they're at 44% through 2 games). They should end up somewhere between 38-40% on the year.

3) 85+ possessions is a ridiculous pace. It's Paul Westhead LMU level fast. Only 1 team in the past 4 years has an adjusted pace higher than 76, and that was VMI last year, and they played a frenetic press and chuck 3s style popularized at places like Grinnell and Redlands. Duke will not come close to averaging 85 possessions a game. They will, however, play faster than last year's 65.9. Look for it to average out to just about 70-72.

wilson
11-17-2007, 03:37 PM
I'm pretty sure I'm not mathy enough to participate in this thread.

Jumbo
11-17-2007, 03:40 PM
http://upload.wikimedia.org/math/2/a/1/2a102cbc76fff187a11e65966997b729.png

mgtr
11-17-2007, 03:44 PM
Where do all these stats come from? If they are just made up, then I can play, too. If they are legit, then some people probably have too much time on their hands.

Jumbo
11-17-2007, 03:48 PM
Where do all these stats come from? If they are just made up, then I can play, too. If they are legit, then some people probably have too much time on their hands.

http://www.kenpom.com

mepanchin
11-17-2007, 04:20 PM
I really hope we can turn it over less than 22% of our possessions this year. Last year's TO rate of around 23% was the worst we've had at least in the last 20 years. Under 20% would mean this team has improved a lot offensively.

NCSU&UNCgrad
11-17-2007, 04:44 PM
I didn't spend much time on it...i just wrote down what i thought they could reasonably achieve: that's why some of the goals are not too hard to meet.

I didn't say 85+ possessions. I said "85+ possessions based on Kenpom's formula for adjusted pace". There are 14 teams doing that right now... http://www.kenpom.com/stats.php?y=2008&s=4

Also, lowering turnovers/possession from 22% to 15% means that you only cut down by about 5/game....Duke can do that.

This isn't a real formula...it's just what i thought they needed to do to win games.

YmoBeThere
11-17-2007, 04:46 PM
YmoBeThere's attempt at a formula for winning in college basketball: score more points than your opponent?

pfrduke
11-17-2007, 07:39 PM
I didn't say 85+ possessions. I said "85+ possessions based on Kenpom's formula for adjusted pace". There are 14 teams doing that right now... http://www.kenpom.com/stats.php?y=2008&s=4


The adjusted stats are all over the map early in the season, because there's a lack of meaningful data with which to perform the adjustment. My comments about the last 4 seasons were referring to the adjusted pace from those four seasons, and 76 is still the ceiling for teams that play normal basketball (i.e., everyone but VMI). And my take that Duke will be ~ 70-72 in pace, even after the adjustment, still stands.