SI and perception about the declining strength of Duke's program

[Billy Dat]

I received my SI college hoops preview issue yesterday and each capsule of their top 20 preseason teams (Duke is #12) contains an analysis of the non conference schedule. My interest is not in their analysis of our schedule, which has been discussed recently on this board, but on a comment attached to that assessment...see below:

"Indiana and Michigan State are tops in the Big Ten; the Blue Devils get Wisconsin in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Georgetown and Louisville are Big East powers; Duke will play Pitt and St. John's. There's no must-see TV here, just more fodder for those who believe this It program is slipping."
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/basketball/ncaa/specials/preview/2007/scouting.reports/duke.html

WOW - that's a pretty strong statement. I am assuming last year's performance and losing out on Greg Monroe are fueling speculation that we are in decline? I haven't seen that much discussion that we are slipping...is SI just trying to stir things up here?

[EarlJam]

I received my SI college hoops preview issue yesterday and each capsule of their top 20 preseason teams (Duke is #12) contains an analysis of the non conference schedule. My interest is not in their analysis of our schedule, which has been discussed recently on this board, but on a comment attached to that assessment...see below:

"Indiana and Michigan State are tops in the Big Ten; the Blue Devils get Wisconsin in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Georgetown and Louisville are Big East powers; Duke will play Pitt and St. John's. There's no must-see TV here, just more fodder for those who believe this It program is slipping."
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/basketball/ncaa/specials/preview/2007/scouting.reports/duke.html

WOW - that's a pretty strong statement. I am assuming last year's performance and losing out on Greg Monroe are fueling speculation that we are in decline? I haven't seen that much discussion that we are slipping...is SI just trying to stir things up here?

I heard Steve Shapiro (sp) on Atlanta's 790 The Zone say something to the same effect this morning. Something like, "....and Duke will be in the top tier of the ACC but certainly not as loaded as they have been in the past.....that program may be in decline."

Idiots. Fools. Let them believe that way. We benefit from it. It's certainly not true. Duke just went through a transitional period last year. With Duke's coaching and recruiting talent, those looking for or predicting a Duke death or decline will be greatly dissapointed.

-EarlJam

P.S. I usually down play expectations for the season. Not this year. This team will be much, much better than most people currently believe.

[Classof06]

I don't agree with people saying the program is on the decline; first, it's way too early to say that (we were in the Final 4 just three years ago), and two, it's just a way for fans to try and dismiss Duke because they're tired of seeing the program succeed. Saying Duke is on the decline is a Duke hater's way of trying to make last season live on forever. It won't.

That being said, I have been a huge critic of our schedule since it was released. I didn't like last year's schedule and I like this one even less. The Pitt and Wisconsin games are a year late (though the Wisconsin game isn't Duke's fault), and we really do lack a big-time out of conference game. There's really no way around it. Losing out on Patterson and Monroe definitely didn't help either, especially the fact that Monroe didn't even visit. It also doesn't help that while the program hasn't been as strong as before the past over the past few years, Carolina has emerged from the Doherty era as the hottest college basketball program in the country.

Stuff like that (right or wrong), does perpetuate the "Duke is on the decline" talk. And that's what the SI guy said; he didn't say he personally believed the program was on the decline, he just said that this invigorates those that do think that. And I wholeheartedly agree.

[Scoring Point]

I say bring it on (it being the media hype around the supposed "Duke decline"). Last year's barrage of criticism and grave dancing (along with the very positive Team USA experience) seems to have really motivated K, and he and the team appear to be entering the season with pretty large chips on their shoulders and determination to prove the detractors wrong. Things like the SI article only add fuel to that fire IMHO.

[throatybeard]

"Indiana and Michigan State are tops in the Big Ten; the Blue Devils get Wisconsin in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Georgetown and Louisville are Big East powers; Duke will play Pitt and St. John's. There's no must-see TV here, just more fodder for those who believe this It program is slipping."
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/basketball/ncaa/specials/preview/2007/scouting.reports/duke.html

And if you've seen the print edition, that isn't Billy Dat's typo-it's exactly like that in the magazine.

[juise]

And if you've seen the print edition, that isn't Billy Dat's typo-it's exactly like that in the magazine.

What typo?

[throatybeard]

What typo?

ra cheer:


There's no must-see TV here, just more fodder for those who believe this It program is slipping."

[DukeDude]

Any rumor of a Duke decline is merely wishful thinking the haters. Sure we went a whole season without being ranked #1, but our freshman and sophomore classes hardly scream "program in decline".

[juise]

I'm pretty sure they're using "It program" like "It girl (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/It_girl)."

It's sorta confusing, though.

[juise]

Any rumor of a Duke decline is merely wishful thinking the haters. Sure we went a whole season without being ranked #1, but our freshman and sophomore classes hardly scream "program in decline".

Yeah, I was looking at last year's polls and noticed that we were #5 nine weeks into the season (January). The season really took a turn for the worse, but we did beat the Georgetown team that knocked off UNC. I believe they were at full strength (injury-wise), though they hadn't really hit their stride yet.

[throatybeard]

I'm pretty sure they're using "It program" like "It girl (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/It_girl)."

It's sorta confusing, though.

Oh I see, good call.

In which case, it's even more of a dig on Duke. You can't be an It girl for over two decades, can you? Maryland in the early 00s seems more It girlish.

[EarlJam]

I'm pretty sure they're using "It program" like "It girl (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/It_girl)."

It's sorta confusing, though.

I have a different theory.


The SI writer who more than likely hates Duke was screwing around when he was typing the article and wrote, "...thinks this sh*t program is slipping."

Of course knowing better, he then went to delete the "sh*t" word but missed the "it." He submitted it to his editor and the typo was never caught.

Or better yet, maybe it's an inside joke with the SI people. Those on the "inside" left it there on purpose to leave the "S" word in the copy in a more subtle fashion.

-EarlJam

P.S. Oh yeah and JFK? I DID IT!!!!

[SMO]

Carolina has emerged from the Doherty era as the hottest college basketball program in the country.

Aside from that school down south that just won 2 consecutive NCAA titles. Is this yet another post from Jay Bilas?

[throatybeard]

Jay works for the Mouse, not for the CNN.

[hurleyfor3]

You can't be an It girl for over two decades, can you?

I think the closest anyone came was Raquel Welsh.

[throatybeard]

I think the closest anyone came was Raquel Welsh.

Leonardo DiCaprio may be giving her a run.

This begs for some sort of off-topic poll, hmmm.

[captmojo]

And here I thought Micheal Jackson was the IT girl.

[Billy Dat]

Not to go all Malcolm Gladwell on the board, but for SI to publish a statement like they did points to a new anti-Duke tipping point. People have hated Duke for years, but rarely have respected national publications chosen to try and highlight that we are slipping. One mediocre year and a couple of recruiting losses and suddenly we are slipping? I don't remember a lot of "UNC has lost it" talk after 8-20, and I am not hearing a lot of similar UConn talk after last year. We ARE ranked in the top 10. Trust me, I am not losing any sleep - it's just curious. If anything, I think that recruits watching our up-tempo style this year will salivate (which is why we better keep it up). K is taking more then one tip from D'Antoni - not only is Phoenix fun to watch, but guys want to go and play there (could also have something to so with Steve Nash). This style should help recruiting, which will keep us IT.

[EarlJam]

We ARE ranked in the top 10.

Good post and agreed.

Also, we will be ranked in the top three when Duke first plays UNC.

This is a very, very, very good Duke team.

-EarlJam

[mepanchin]

We have a very good team that will excite recruits. We are looking very good with 2 outstanding recruits in 09 and good (as far as I know) with others in the class. No need to be worried, but its needless bad press.

[ArtVandelay]

It also doesn't help that while the program hasn't been as strong as before the past over the past few years, Carolina has emerged from the Doherty era as the hottest college basketball program in the country.

I'd have to say that Florida is the hottest college basketball program right now.

As for Duke, if there has been a decline, that's only because we were the AP #1 at the end of the season for 4 YEARS IN A ROW (1998-2002). During the 8 seasons from 1998-2006, we were arguably the best team in the country for 4 or maybe even 5 of those years. Andy Katz wrote a great article about how impressive our sweet 16 streak was in the parity era of college basketabll. It's sort of hard not to decline from that sort of success.

At the end of the day, though, one down year, combined with the publicity hit the school has taken from the LAX scandal makes the "Duke is in decline" an easy story for lazy journalists. And in some sense, it's true - we're not at the level of success right now that we were at during the Battier/Jwill and Shelden/JJ years. But that certainly doesn't put a program "in decline" in the general sense - we still project to be a top 10 team for the forseeable future. Possibly a national title contender if a certain guy who shares a last name with our 5th President had decided to come, but that's a story for another day.

Also, I love the journalistic device of citing "those who believe" or "those who say." Translation: I'm saying this, even if it has no basis in reality, but I'm too chicken^$%^$%^$%^$% to attach my own name to it.

[dkbaseball]

The Pitt and Wisconsin games are a year late (though the Wisconsin game isn't Duke's fault), and we really do lack a big-time out of conference game.

Wrong, at least in the case of UW. Having lived in Madison most of the past six years, and followed the program closely, I think they are loaded and might have their best team ever. I'll post a scouting report next week.

You know, some of these wise guys, such as at SI, are pretty clueless. We've only got three more McDonalds all-Americans than any other program in the country.

I heard one of the Vegas wise guys on the radio the other day, one who has been extremely critical of K -- Alan Boston. Somebody called in and asked him to assess the ACC. He revealed just the barest knowledge of the league, and didn't seem to know that NC State is supposed to contend this year. He protested that he hadn't done his reading yet. He's considered one of the top college hoops bettors in Vegas, but I think his winning percentage against the spread is something like 55 percent. He's got enough money to bet, though, that he can make a handsome living getting just over half the games right.

Really, you're probably going to find far more expertise about Duke basketball here than most anyplace else. We are, as Tom Wolfe derisively called us, the "hooples." Do the players really call us that?

[Bluedawg]

I received my SI college hoops preview issue yesterday and each capsule of their top 20 preseason teams (Duke is #12) contains an analysis of the non conference schedule. My interest is not in their analysis of our schedule, which has been discussed recently on this board, but on a comment attached to that assessment...see below:

"Indiana and Michigan State are tops in the Big Ten; the Blue Devils get Wisconsin in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Georgetown and Louisville are Big East powers; Duke will play Pitt and St. John's. There's no must-see TV here, just more fodder for those who believe this It program is slipping."
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/basketball/ncaa/specials/preview/2007/scouting.reports/duke.html

WOW - that's a pretty strong statement. I am assuming last year's performance and losing out on Greg Monroe are fueling speculation that we are in decline? I haven't seen that much discussion that we are slipping...is SI just trying to stir things up here?

I know Duke was on Greg Monroe's list but does anyone know if Greg Monroe was on Coach K's list?

[dukie8]

I heard Steve Shapiro (sp) on Atlanta's 790 The Zone say something to the same effect this morning. Something like, "....and Duke will be in the top tier of the ACC but certainly not as loaded as they have been in the past.....that program may be in decline."

Idiots. Fools. Let them believe that way. We benefit from it. It's certainly not true. Duke just went through a transitional period last year. With Duke's coaching and recruiting talent, those looking for or predicting a Duke death or decline will be greatly dissapointed.

-EarlJam

P.S. I usually down play expectations for the season. Not this year. This team will be much, much better than most people currently believe.

why are they idiots and fools for merely recognizing something that is pretty clearly true? duke DID slip last year. after what seems like a decade straight of #1 rankings and #1 seeds, losing its last 4 games, going .500 in the acc and getting bounced by vcu in the 2nd round of the ncaat was a major step backward. add in the loss of duke's best player last year (yes, as much as he didn't live up to expectations, mcbob was duke's best player last year), the loss of patterson and monroe and no real pre-season buzz, the team entered this year with expectations not seen since maybe 2003 or 1997.

i always get a couple of magazines and, for the first time since i can remember (maybe '96?), duke didn't have a single player on any of the pre-season aa teams, all defensive teams, all offensive teams, etc. it was weird not seeing jj or jwill or brand or battier or laettner all over the place. face it, this team was flying way under the radar screen as of a week ago. however, from the first 2 games, it looks like this team is going to get a lot better as the season progresses (as opposed to last year) and has a lot of upside (particularly going into next year). it therefore isn't that crazy that someone noted that duke has slipped (it did) but it also should be noted that the slip isn't going to last very long.

[Zeb]

I know Duke was on Greg Monroe's list but does anyone know if Greg Monroe was on Coach K's list?

By every account I've read Monroe was a top target for Duke. You'd have to be wearing very royal blue glasses to say his choosing Georgetown was not a loss for us.

That said, we move on and we've got a great team to watch this year.

[Troublemaker]

why are they idiots and fools for merely recognizing something that is pretty clearly true? duke DID slip last year. after what seems like a decade straight of #1 rankings and #1 seeds, losing its last 4 games, going .500 in the acc and getting bounced by vcu in the 2nd round of the ncaat was a major step backward. add in the loss of duke's best player last year (yes, as much as he didn't live up to expectations, mcbob was duke's best player last year), the loss of patterson and monroe and no real pre-season buzz, the team entered this year with expectations not seen since maybe 2003 or 1997.

i always get a couple of magazines and, for the first time since i can remember (maybe '96?), duke didn't have a single player on any of the pre-season aa teams, all defensive teams, all offensive teams, etc. it was weird not seeing jj or jwill or brand or battier or laettner all over the place. face it, this team was flying way under the radar screen as of a week ago. however, from the first 2 games, it looks like this team is going to get a lot better as the season progresses (as opposed to last year) and has a lot of upside (particularly going into next year). it therefore isn't that crazy that someone noted that duke has slipped (it did) but it also should be noted that the slip isn't going to last very long.

Way too literal. You might as well say Florida is "slipping" if they have the just-okay season most are expecting them to have.

[RelativeWays]

Every major college basketball program goes throu its peaks and valleys. UCLA did, Kentucky did (maybe still is) Georgetown, UNC, Indiana. Duke already has from 95 to 97, the team hit a valley and took a couple of years to rebuild.

This is what infuriates me about these insinuations of gloom and doom, its not relative to the rest of other college basketball programs. The UConn collapse last year was a perfect example. The media blows up Duke's 22-11 season like its the College BB equivalent of what Notre Dame football is going through now, yet UConn finishes well below .500 and the media can't be bothered.

I think if Duke wins a NC in the next 2-3 years it'll be quite sweet due to all the nay sayers, skeptics and pundits, who seem to be completely ignorant of college BB history.

[dukie8]

Way too literal. You might as well say Florida is "slipping" if they have the just-okay season most are expecting them to have.

to "slip" you have to be at a sustained level for a significant amount of time. we were on top for almost a decade until last year's "slip." florida was on top for 2 years and now is back to where it historically is. nd in football has slipped down an abyss.

[feldspar]

to "slip" you have to be at a sustained level for a significant amount of time. we were on top for almost a decade until last year's "slip." florida was on top for 2 years and now is back to where it historically is. nd in football has slipped down an abyss.

I think if we fail to finish in the top 2 of the ACC and don't make it past the Sweet 16 again for the fourth straight year, the "slip" talk is only going to continue. Not that I agree that it should.

[phaedrus]

Way too literal. You might as well say Florida is "slipping" if they have the just-okay season most are expecting them to have.

I disagree. Florida had two great years with the same core of players. We went 8-9 seasons - with several completely different rosters - where we were consistently ranked in the top 5 and always ranked #1 at some point in the season. The fact is that we just finished such a great and consistent run that our "slipping" is not really comparable to anything else to happen to any team recently - not UNC, not UConn, not Florida.

We set a standard in that stretch that was impossibly hard to maintain. We had to slip. I would be ecstatic, if not surprised, for us to reproduce our 98-06 run. (Of course, I would be even happier if we reproduced our 86-94 run.)

[Troublemaker]

This debate is a bit too semantical for me to care that much about it. All I'll say is that it strikes me as silly to say Duke is slipping based almost entirely on one season. Once we see what Duke accomplishes the next few seasons, it will also look silly in hindsight.

[Mike Corey]

The writer who penned that jab at Duke--"more fodder for those who believe this 'It' program is slipping"--is using fuzzy logic.

The non-conference schedule isn't worthy of "must see TV," therefore the program is slipping?

Not only is that illogical (and woefully premature), Sports Illustrated is in no position to criticize anyone for floundering in the shadow of the glory years.

[feldspar]

Not only is that illogical (and woefully premature), Sports Illustrated is in no position to criticize anyone for floundering in the shadow of the glory years.

Oh, SNAP!

Good point, Mike. I for one have chosen not to renew my subscription seeing as though they let Rick Reilly jump to ESPN and signed on that buffoon Dan Patrick.

[yancem]

Way too literal. You might as well say Florida is "slipping" if they have the just-okay season most are expecting them to have.

Florida is a completely different situation. Yes they had an amazing 2 years winning back -to -back titles, but they have never had a prolonged run of excellence. They are a lot like UConn in that they has a really good couple of years, then an off year or two to rebuild and then a really couple of good years.

Duke on the other hand had a run of 5-6 straight ACC championships, 8-9 straight sweet sixteens, a bunch of NCAA 1 seeds, 3 final fours and 1 NC. An off year sticks out a little more for Duke.

A while ago I did some digging and if I remember correctly, Wojo and Ricky Price are the only Duke players to play 4 years and not go to a final four since the class before the Dawkins, Bilas Alarie. If we don't go to the final four this year, Nelson will become the 3rd player not to have a F4 on his resume.

Maybe we slipped a little bit. But not by a lot and I highly doubt that it will take long for Duke to get back to where we want to be.

[Uncle Drew]

While most of us real Duke fans loved seeing UNC have an 8-20 season a few years back after so many years of consistency I believe two things to be true.

1. That year when it became apparent that was not your typical UNC team beating them lost the luster for many teams. (Thankfully not us as most of us loved to see The University Of Northern Carborro and it's fans in "the end of the world is coming" mode.) But as the season progressed no one rushed the court as the normally would against UNC teams of old.

2. If Duke were to have another season like 1995 or one like the 8-20 season UNC had I'd bet my bottom dollar teams would still rush the court, rub salt in the wound (like they did last year but ten fold.), and Duke would still get EVERY teams best shot possibly even running the score up if at all possible as payback for all the butt kickings Duke has dealt out over the last ten + years.


Many said the 91-92 team was cocky and arrogant and the 99 team was so good a victory wasn't in question it was only by how much. THAT is the way I want to see Duke again. And as much as it makes Duke that much more hated we're going to be hated anyway. So they may as well play with a chip on their shoulder and dare someone to knock it off. (a la 2007 New England Patriots!)

[Saratoga2]

Good post and agreed.

Also, we will be ranked in the top three when Duke first plays UNC.

This is a very, very, very good Duke team.

-EarlJam

It's hard to believe that we will be ranked in the top three anytime this year. The team is good, but there are other very good teams out there. UCLA, Memphis, UNC and Kansas to name a few. I think Duke is fairly rated currently and I will be happy with whatever they do and really pleased if they can be a top ten team by the end of the year.

[duke74]

....And as much as it makes Duke that much more hated we're going to be hated anyway. So they may as well play with a chip on their shoulder and dare someone to knock it off. (a la 2007 New England Patriots!)

Without the jerk coach and videotaping I hope.

[merry]

Why aren't we playing Georgetown this year anyway? Was that just a two game series?

[-jk]

Why aren't we playing Georgetown this year anyway? Was that just a two game series?

Georgetown wanted a year off (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?p=62649&highlight=georgetown#post62649).

-jk

[Troublemaker]

It's hard to believe that we will be ranked in the top three anytime this year. The team is good, but there are other very good teams out there. UCLA, Memphis, UNC and Kansas to name a few. I think Duke is fairly rated currently and I will be happy with whatever they do and really pleased if they can be a top ten team by the end of the year.

All it would take would be a prolonged winning streak to begin the season, which is certainly possible looking at the schedule. Weird rankings are pretty common with the ladder-system voters use. If we go undefeated in the non-conference schedule, our ranking will be pretty high. Only Pomeroy ratings matter anyway :-).

[rsvman]

.... losing its last 4 games, going .500 in the acc and getting bounced by vcu in the 2nd round of the ncaat was a major step backward......

Um, I think if you check the record, you'll find that Duke lost to VCU in the FIRST round of the tournament, not the second. In other words, it was even WORSE than you remembered it.

Having said that, I still think the "decline" mentioned in the article is premature and poorly thought out.