How to handle the best Bigs?

[Jeffrey]

Hi,

I'm very excited about this year's team! They're fast, eager, deep, and talented. They're going to be a lot of fun to watch. I think that many teams are going to have a very hard time matching up with our team. IMO, this is going to be a very high scoring team.

Obviously, the concern will be defending the best Bigs. How do you think we could best handle this issue?

-Jeffrey

[VaDukie]

Hi,

I'm very excited about this year's team! They're fast, eager, deep, and talented. They're going to be a lot of fun to watch. I think that many teams are going to have a very hard time matching up with our team. IMO, this is going to be a very high scoring team.

Obviously, the concern will be defending the best Bigs. How do you think we could best handle this issue?

-Jeffrey

When going against teams with solid bigs, it's hard to distinguish offensive from defensive strategy. The cliche 'best defense is a good offense' certainly comes into play here. If we're running up and down the court we can tire the bigs out. Also if we do a good job with the press we can make it harder for other teams to set up in their normal half-court offense.

From a purely matchup perspective, I think we bring in Z a little more for his size and rebounding. If/when he's healthy, McClure certainly plays a key role. Singler and King are certainly adequate defenders down low but if they're defending too much down low they risk foul trouble.

[Jumbo]

Hi,

I'm very excited about this year's team! They're fast, eager, deep, and talented. They're going to be a lot of fun to watch. I think that many teams are going to have a very hard time matching up with our team. IMO, this is going to be a very high scoring team.

Obviously, the concern will be defending the best Bigs. How do you think we could best handle this issue?

-Jeffrey

It depends on the team we're playing. Are the guards weak outside shooters? We can double down. Is the second big not an offensive force? We can double big-to-big. I think a constant theme, regardless, will be heavy ball pressure on the perimeter to disrupt entry passes.

Let me add this. There are very few bigs around the country who truly concern me as scoring threats. By that, i mean there just aren't a ton of guys who you can dump the ball into the post and say "Go score." So, even if some teams have a size advantage, it might actually give us an edge if they force-feed a big who isn't a natural scorer.

[tux]

Hi,

I'm very excited about this year's team! They're fast, eager, deep, and talented. They're going to be a lot of fun to watch. I think that many teams are going to have a very hard time matching up with our team. IMO, this is going to be a very high scoring team.

Obviously, the concern will be defending the best Bigs. How do you think we could best handle this issue?

-Jeffrey

The strength of this year's team on defense is the ability to apply pressure on the perimeter: create turnovers and disrupt the other team's offense. So, I think one answer is to make it as difficult as possible for the opponent to make easy entry passes into their bigs. Beyond that, I think you will see Duke double team quite often by rotating someone over from the weak side.

Rebounding could also be a sore spot against teams with really good inside players, with the opponent getting multiple shots at the basket. As in the past, there's a trade-off between aggressive defense and good rebounding position. If Duke isn't forcing TOs, then the rebounding becomes really important. Hopefully, Dave comes back healthy and Zou gets to 100%. And, fortunately, we have 2 freshmen who don't seem to mind banging inside for rebounds.

[Highlander]

When going against teams with solid bigs, it's hard to distinguish offensive from defensive strategy. The cliche 'best defense is a good offense' certainly comes into play here. If we're running up and down the court we can tire the bigs out. Also if we do a good job with the press we can make it harder for other teams to set up in their normal half-court offense.

From a purely matchup perspective, I think we bring in Z a little more for his size and rebounding. If/when he's healthy, McClure certainly plays a key role. Singler and King are certainly adequate defenders down low but if they're defending too much down low they risk foul trouble.

Agree. Stated a different way, how are teams with solid bigs going to match up with Duke? I don't see Tyler guarding Singler out on the perimeter for example. If K goes Singler, Scheyer, Paulus, Henderson, and Nelson, he forces their bigs to guard outside. Then we either drain a trey or run right past them. If Duke can dictate the pace and flow of the game, they can force big teams to play small in order to keep up. Reminds me of 96-97 when we had Chris Carawell playing center, and Dave Odom had to sit Duncan down and go small because HE had matchup problems. Another example was in 2001 when Duke beat UNC and Brendan Haywood TWICE playing Reggie Love and Casey Sanders at center. I believe we also won the ACC Tourney and made the Final Four without a serious post presence that year. The key is dictating the tempo and forcing the matchups in your favor.

I think the keys to our defense of the bigs this year will be 1) our ball pressure and 2) our rebounding. If we can pressure the entry pass, we negate the players on the inside b/c they nan't get the ball, and if we can rebound effectively, we reduce the number of posessions the other team has to work with. If we can do those two things effectively, we'll be fine, and I won't worry about our lack of a true center.

On a side note, I'm more worried about the 17 turnovers (many unforced) from last night's game. That's a bad habit Duke needs to break out of, and soon.

[Jumbo]

Reminds me of 96-97 when we had Chris Carawell playing center, and Dave Odom had to sit Duncan down and go small because HE had matchup problems.

That game has become a bit of an urban myth. Duke won 73-68 at Wake. But Duncan played all 40 minutes and scored 26 points on 11-of-13 shooting.

[VaDukie]

It depends on the team we're playing. Are the guards weak outside shooters? We can double down. Is the second big not an offensive force? We can double big-to-big. I think a constant theme, regardless, will be heavy ball pressure on the perimeter to disrupt entry passes.

Let me add this. There are very few bigs around the country who truly concern me as scoring threats. By that, i mean there just aren't a ton of guys who you can dump the ball into the post and say "Go score." So, even if some teams have a size advantage, it might actually give us an edge if they force-feed a big who isn't a natural scorer.

I'd agree very much on the lack of dominating bigs nationwide, although obviously one of them resides a few miles down the road. I will be very intrigued how we try and neutralize TH (force him to chase Singler around the outside? double up and see if Lawson really has a jumper?).

I think the difference between a good season and a great one (San Antonio?) is our ability to dictate the style of play. I like our chances against anybody if they're forced to play our game.

[VaDukie]

That game has become a bit of an urban myth. Duke won 73-68 at Wake. But Duncan played all 40 minutes and scored 26 points on 11-of-13 shooting.

God Bless GoDuke's all time results page (guessing that's where you got it).

[throatybeard]

Another example was in 2001 when Duke beat UNC and Brendan Haywood TWICE playing Reggie Love and Casey Sanders at center. I believe we also won the ACC Tourney and made the Final Four without a serious post presence that year.

Boozer was back in the S16 and the Region Final.

[budwom]

I agree with Jumbo's point about there not being a huge number of high scoring big guys, but I'm a bit more (preliminarily) concerned about teams getting second, third and fourth scoring chances against us. Our help defense can, at times, leave guys wide open for offensive rebounds. In any case, we'll know soon enough....

[EarlJam]

Serious question: When did people start calling basketball's big men, "Bigs?"

I've been around basketball a long time but only recently have heard this term - and I've heard it quite a bit this year.

I don't mind it; just find it interesting.

-EarlJam

[Indoor66]

Serious question: When did people start calling basketball's big men, "Bigs?"

I've been around basketball a long time but only recently have heard this term - and I've heard it quite a bit this year.

I don't mind it; just find it interesting.

-EarlJam

Kind of like the "elbow".

[EarlJam]

Kind of like the "elbow".

Huh?

[Classof06]

Yeah, I agree that there are very few bigs in CBB that we'll have to worry about, but there's one we'll have to face 2 to maybe even 4 times a year in Hansbrough.

When you look at UNC, I think you have to say there's a very real possibility you'll see Duke (GASP!) zone the Tar Heels at certain points in the game. The knock on UNC is their ability to consistently hit perimeter shots, and though I still don't think Duke's post presence is a huge issue, it is against UNC. Even if their bigs don't have great games, I do worry about what someone said earlier, and that's 2nd, 3rd, etc. chance points.

[throatybeard]

Serious question: When did people start calling basketball's big men, "Bigs?"

I think when WBB made its way into the public discourse to the degree that it seemed silly to enough people to be calling Lisa Leslie a "big man." So when we nouned "big," we had a nice gender-netural word. Secondly, "big" is also versatile enough to cover PF and C, which seem to have more to do with each other in today's college game than SF and PF do.

[Jeffrey]

Let me add this. There are very few bigs around the country who truly concern me as scoring threats. By that, i mean there just aren't a ton of guys who you can dump the ball into the post and say "Go score."

Hi Jumbo,

I agree but let's talk about the best Bigs which, certainly, put's UNC in the discussion. What would you do against T.H.?

Seems nobody wants to say a four letter word around here. Will there be a place and time to use a zone this season?

-Jeffrey

[Jeffrey]

Yeah, I agree that there are very few bigs in CBB that we'll have to worry about, but there's one we'll have to face 2 to maybe even 4 times a year in Hansbrough.

When you look at UNC, I think you have to say there's a very real possibility you'll see Duke (GASP!) zone the Tar Heels at certain points in the game. The knock on UNC is their ability to consistently hit perimeter shots, and though I still don't think Duke's post presence is a huge issue, it is against UNC. Even if their bigs don't have great games, I do worry about what someone said earlier, and that's 2nd, 3rd, etc. chance points.

Hi,

Thanks.... somebody else was willing to say it.

-Jeffrey

[throatybeard]

Seems nobody wants to say a four letter word around here. Will there be a place and time to use a zone this season?

Who is this Nobody? I'd love to meet him. The use of zone is one of the most common discussions on the board.

[Jeffrey]

Who is this Nobody? I'd love to meet him. The use of zone is one of the most common discussions on the board.

Hi,

I'll tell ya who Nobody is:

Nobody is the best candidate for President.
Nobody is a totally honest candidate.
Nobody will honor all of their campaign promises.
Nobody will never be influenced by any of their large campaign contributers.

Want to know more about Nobody?

If not, then please let my thread continue even if you feel these topics have been frequently discussed!

-Jeffrey

[throatybeard]

Want to know more about Nobody?

No, on second thought, I think I saw an artist's rendering of him in a Family Circus cartoon

[mepanchin]

I have several thoughts.

1. I actually think we have a team loaded with good rebounders. We have to remember that not every team with good big guys will go after every offensive rebound with 5 guys. In fact, because of the tempo we are likely to play all year, transition defense will likely be one of the big concerns teams address in scouting reports about Duke. Against a bigger NMSU team, we absolutely dominated the defensive glass. They got only 6 offensive rebounds, while we recorded 26 defensive rebounds.

2. I think we will see a lot of what Lance was showing against the Aggies last night: aggressive denial of entry passes. Lance may be smaller than other more prototypically sized power forwards and centers at the college level but he's also more mobile, and he isn't as weak as some make him out to be. Guarding Hansbrough straight up is usually a recipe for disaster for every team in the country, not just Duke.

3. Zones have already been shown and will likely get more play against poor shooting teams with good bigs, or in certain situations where K wants to nurse a lead or keep a player out of foul trouble.

4. I haven't see much of it yet but there's always the possibility of double teams. There are few good passing big men left in college.

5. I firmly believe that good ball pressure on the perimeter that forces turnovers, and fatigues opposing guards over the course of a game is ultimately more important than guarding in the post. Guards are simply in control of the ball more often. Force them to turn the ball over and negate entire possessions, force them to fatigue, force them to make mistakes, and the big guys will slowly vanish.

6. Gonna just go ahead and say it. Zoubek. The guy has his problems, but there is reason enough, I think, to think that he can become a solid, contributing big guy on both sides of the court by his junior year. As for now, he's consistently a good defender and rebounder. He also had no turnovers last night! Good for him. I also don't think he's traveled yet this season.

7. Someone mentioned turnovers being a problem. Yes and no. Yes, we could still improve our turnover rate, but it's worth noting that we play many more possessions this year than last, so we are expecting more raw turnovers. However, that said we still turned it over on more than 1 in 5 of our possessions (about 21%), and that can be improved. This time last year we had turned it over on 28-29% of our possessions against Georgia Southern, UNC-G, Air Force, and Marquette.

[-jk]

Boozer was back in the S16 and the Region Final.

I thought he had his re-debut in the final four, off the bench. I could be wrong, though. I certainly don't claim perfect memory.

-jk

[VaDukie]

I thought he had his re-debut in the final four, off the bench. I could be wrong, though. I certainly don't claim perfect memory.

-jk

He was back in the regionals but played sparingly.

[throatybeard]

Boozer played 22 minutes in both the UCLA and USC games.

[Jumbo]

I agree with Jumbo's point about there not being a huge number of high scoring big guys, but I'm a bit more (preliminarily) concerned about teams getting second, third and fourth scoring chances against us. Our help defense can, at times, leave guys wide open for offensive rebounds. In any case, we'll know soon enough....

Thing is, that's been a problem even on Duke's best teams. Duke's D has always been vulnerable to 1) pull-up jumpers and 2) offensive rebounds. But the trade-offs (contested threes, help on drives and turnovers) usually outweigh the negatives. I feel like Duke will do a good enough job on the boards (particularly given the number of guards who can rebound) to make that strategy work this year.

[Jumbo]

Yeah, I agree that there are very few bigs in CBB that we'll have to worry about, but there's one we'll have to face 2 to maybe even 4 times a year in Hansbrough.

When you look at UNC, I think you have to say there's a very real possibility you'll see Duke (GASP!) zone the Tar Heels at certain points in the game. The knock on UNC is their ability to consistently hit perimeter shots, and though I still don't think Duke's post presence is a huge issue, it is against UNC. Even if their bigs don't have great games, I do worry about what someone said earlier, and that's 2nd, 3rd, etc. chance points.

You know, my memory was that Hansbrough didn't kill us in Cameron last year, and I remember thinking a couple of players did particularly good jobs against him. But just to be sure, I went back and looked at the boxscore. And, yeah, Hansbrough had a solid game -- 16 points, 5-for-9 from the field, three boards -- but it was Wright who killed us (19 pts, 9-for-12, 9 boards). And the two players I remember giving Hansbrough a hard time? Zoubek and McClure. They are such different defenders, and I think the varied styles frustrated Hansbrough. McClure really moved his feet well and forced Hansbrough to try to overpower him. And then Zoubek came in and really bothered him with his strength and length. I think a similar strategy of rotating defenders could work again.

[captmojo]

I believe Zoo will be at 100% by the time tarholia time comes around. As for Henderson, McClure, Thomas and others, remember their vertical capabilities. What they lack in height they make up for with great leaping ability. What they need is to learn how to be wide. Sometimes the wide body is tougher to score against than the tall guy. You can shoot over tall guys, especially if you fake them off their feet, but you can't always get around a wide body.

[sandinmyshoes]

Well, against UNC I think you pack the paint no matter if you are in zone or man. Make them prove they are going to hit the threes. If they do manage to start hitting them, then you pray and go to plan B, whatever that may be.

[dyedwab]

In some games, Duke will just have to decide what they intend to give up and what they intend to concede.

The best example of this in recent memory in the game at Indiana in December of 2005. Marco Killingworth scored 34 pts and grabbed 10 rebounds as Shelden Williams defended him one on one the entire game. Yet Duke won the game 75-67, primarily because they shut down the perimeter game for Indiana, forcing them into a 2-10 shooting from three-point range. In this game, Duke conceded to the inside game while shutting down the outside game.

I think this is a personnel-dependent decision, but it is another option regarding how to shut down big men

[JasonEvans]

While Duke will almost certainly play more zone this year than any year in recent memory (mostly to protect Marty and Zoubek, who are both not good defenders in Duke's man-to-man system), I do not think the answer against Carolina or other teams with good bigs is to play zone a lot more than normal.

Someone earlier in this thread mentioned THE KEY for Duke this year, which is forcing our style, our pace onto other teams. How is playing a zone and "packing it in" our style of game? We are successful when we are pressuring the ball and forcing turnovers/bad shots from teams that are scrambling. That leads to easy baskets for us and frustrates the opposition. While Duke's offense has been fun as heck to watch so far, the big reason I think this team will be quite successful is the aggressive style of D we are playing.

So, I think we defend bigs the way we always have--

we front them and provde great help from the back side
we pressure the guards and force bad feeds into the bigs
we run, run, run and wear down the bigs
we make the big uncomfortable by playing D againts guys who are comfortable on the perimeter
we use our athleticism to block shots (the basket is strill only at 10-feet, right?)
we use our smarts to draw charges


One more point-- several have said (and I agree) that there simply are not all that many teams with great big men to concern us. I don't think "avoidance" is part of K's plan. Make no mistakes, this team will have trouble with Tyler, Costner, and potentially in the NCAAs against studs like Kevin Love, Hibbert and perhaps a few others. But, I would simply point out that no one man beats year. K has, for years, believed that sometimes it is best to let the stud gets his while denying his teammates theirs. It has worked over and over again. I don't want anyone to panic if, at some point, some tough big man is torching us because it may be part of a plan to shut down the rest of the team. It is called losing the battle but winning the war and Coach K has done it a million times in the past.

--Jason "I still recall the first time I saw this when Len Bias came to Cameron and lit us up for what seemed like 60 points (it was actually 41) but Duke won comfortably" Evans

[Jeffrey]

Someone earlier in this thread mentioned THE KEY for Duke this year, which is forcing our style, our pace onto other teams. How is playing a zone and "packing it in" our style of game? We are successful when we are pressuring the ball and forcing turnovers/bad shots from teams that are scrambling. That leads to easy baskets for us and frustrates the opposition.

Hi Jason,

I agree with your assessment and feel that pressure at the point will cause most teams tremendous problems. I still wonder (maybe just due to UNC disdain! :D ) whether we should just concede to Tyler or show UNC many different looks and cause frustration via confusion?

Best regards,
Jeffrey

[ArtVandelay]

Good News: As many of you said, there's a finite number of dominant big men out there that can really hurt Duke. At the end of the day, if we face one of those guys, particularly in the post-season, we have a really good chance of losing. Not that we will, but that's clearly the weakness of the team. But I think we all knew that going into this season. We just need to hope we don't run into one of those teams early.

Bad News: This weakness of the team is particularly problematic because one of those dominant big men happens to play for a team right down 15-501. And he's not a big man that we can neutralize by running on him and using our speed, b/c Tyler runs the floor very well. The upshot is that our frontcourt weakness may not be so terrible in the grand scheme of things, but it SEEMS like a pressing problem because it might mean that we get swept by UNC. This in and of itself is not the end of the world, but hardly an ideal scenario.

Lastly, we should NOT rely on Singler as a 5 for this team. He's just not a 5, and I think it will hurt us all around to have him play "up" a position, with someone like G or McClure at the 4. We can't afford to have Kyle pick up fouls and generally just get banged around and worn down on the defensive end, such that it affects his scoring ability. I'm fine with him guarding an athletic 4 type player, but not a bruiser. This may be obvious, but I've seen some comments around here that seem to think our best lineup involves Singler as the 5. Not to beat a dead horse, but we can't have Singler be a guy that Coach K tries to use out of position as a big man. He really fits ideally in the Battier-mold college 4 position. We need to live or die with Lance and Zoubek as the post defenders, depending on the matchup.

[Jeffrey]

Lastly, we should NOT rely on Singler as a 5 for this team. He's just not a 5, and I think it will hurt us all around to have him play "up" a position......


...... or two. :)

[Highlander]

Boozer was back in the S16 and the Region Final.

Checked and you are correct (my memory was faulty). However, it is worth noting that Boozer only scored a combined 3 points in those two games, so whether he was an effective post presence in those games is debatable.

[Highlander]

That game has become a bit of an urban myth. Duke won 73-68 at Wake. But Duncan played all 40 minutes and scored 26 points on 11-of-13 shooting.

Interesting. Any idea how/where this 'legend' started? Was this the season that Feinstein did his "A March to Madness" on perhaps? I know I've heard it and obviously been guilty of retelling it. Just wondering where I got it from.

[Scoring Point]

That game has become a bit of an urban myth. Duke won 73-68 at Wake. But Duncan played all 40 minutes and scored 26 points on 11-of-13 shooting.

In fairness, while Carrawell certainly did not shut down Duncan, playing him at C did pull the Big Fundamental, who if IIRC averaged 4-5 blocks per game, away from the paint on our end. Carrawell did have a huge block late in the game, too, but it was on Tony Rutland (I think) not Duncan. I also recall Duncan bricking several FTs down the stretch.

[phaedrus]

I also recall Duncan bricking several FTs down the stretch.

Some things never change.

[wilson]

I think when WBB made its way into the public discourse to the degree that it seemed silly to enough people to be calling Lisa Leslie a "big man." So when we nouned "big," we had a nice gender-netural word.

That's an interesting take. But if you pay attention, you'll still hear WBB players and coaches talk about "man-to-man" defense. To be fair, "woman-to-woman" or "person-to-person" defense doesn't exactly roll off the tongue, but it's interesting nonetheless.

Also, in women's softball, there aren't any 1st/2nd/3rd basewomen. Thoughts?

[Classof06]

You know, my memory was that Hansbrough didn't kill us in Cameron last year, and I remember thinking a couple of players did particularly good jobs against him. But just to be sure, I went back and looked at the boxscore. And, yeah, Hansbrough had a solid game -- 16 points, 5-for-9 from the field, three boards -- but it was Wright who killed us (19 pts, 9-for-12, 9 boards). And the two players I remember giving Hansbrough a hard time? Zoubek and McClure. They are such different defenders, and I think the varied styles frustrated Hansbrough. McClure really moved his feet well and forced Hansbrough to try to overpower him. And then Zoubek came in and really bothered him with his strength and length. I think a similar strategy of rotating defenders could work again.

And if I'm not mistaken, Hansbrough got 10 of his 16 points after McRoberts fouled out of the game.

[Jumbo]

And if I'm not mistaken, Hansbrough got 10 of his 16 points after McRoberts fouled out of the game.

Interesting. I seem to remember McRoberts spending some time guarding Wright, because of his length. Also, remember that Josh didn't start that game.

[Slackerb]

What do you guys think about how to defend State's bigs? I think it's interesting that most of the examples or specific worries in here are about Hansbrough and Carolina's frontcourt, but I'd be more worried about Costner, Hickson, and McCauley at State.

Costner's the best player of the three right now and given Duke the most trouble in the past (30 points in the ACC tourney, 20 in the first meeting). Put McClure on him?

And then McCauley and Hickson, Zoubek? And hope they don't play all three at once because of matchups at the other end.

And the scary part is that Hickson might be the best of the bunch, judging by preseason performance and his first game (31 points on 12/12 shooting).

With a lineup like that, you just try to play the matchup game and hope they can't shoot from the outside I think.

[MChambers]

What do you guys think about how to defend State's bigs? I think it's interesting that most of the examples or specific worries in here are about Hansbrough and Carolina's frontcourt, but I'd be more worried about Costner, Hickson, and McCauley at State.

Costner's the best player of the three right now and given Duke the most trouble in the past (30 points in the ACC tourney, 20 in the first meeting). Put McClure on him?

And then McCauley and Hickson, Zoubek? And hope they don't play all three at once because of matchups at the other end.

And the scary part is that Hickson might be the best of the bunch, judging by preseason performance and his first game (31 points on 12/12 shooting).

With a lineup like that, you just try to play the matchup game and hope they can't shoot from the outside I think.

I hope State plays all three against us. We'd kill them. But they won't, Lowe will rotate the three of them.

How does State match up with our perimeter, you might ask? And who from State will cover Singler?

We'll be fine.

[Patrick Yates]

What do you guys think about how to defend State's bigs? I think it's interesting that most of the examples or specific worries in here are about Hansbrough and Carolina's frontcourt, but I'd be more worried about Costner, Hickson, and McCauley at State.

Costner's the best player of the three right now and given Duke the most trouble in the past (30 points in the ACC tourney, 20 in the first meeting). Put McClure on him?

And then McCauley and Hickson, Zoubek? And hope they don't play all three at once because of matchups at the other end.

And the scary part is that Hickson might be the best of the bunch, judging by preseason performance and his first game (31 points on 12/12 shooting).

With a lineup like that, you just try to play the matchup game and hope they can't shoot from the outside I think.


State does not worry me as much as UNC. I think that State's post lineup is the best in the ACC, top to bottom, but they are B-A-D at the guard. Our, almost infinitely superior, guards will shut them down. There will be some posessions when NCSU has trouble advancing the ball past halfcourt in the allotted time. Hopefully, our guards will be able to deny passing lanes and dribble penetration. This is a classic example of two diametrically opposed teams. Our guards are far superior, whereas their posts are better. Their posts will have good nights against us, for sure. But they won't go OFF. Our guards will be able to attack them at will, and by the end of the game it should pay off. And at least 1 of our guards WILL go off on NCSU. Not sure who, or how many players will do it, but there will be some explosions. NCSU is dangerously weak at the guard this year, especially PG.

UNC is a horse of a different color entirely. They do have the guards to play with Duke, even if Duke is slightly better (top to bottom) at the guard. They have the posts to confound us, and I do not believe our theoretical guard superiority is enough to overcome their definite post superiority.

Thus, I have to disagree with an earlier poster who recommended Zoubs on Hans. For short, and I mean incredibly short, spurts, Zoubs will be fine. But, playing Zoubs negates the best way to stop Hans. Make him play D. He looked bad on D vs Davidson. Poor rotations, not much help, etc. It is pretty obvious that he only plays D so he can get back to O. Making Hans chase arround an offensive threat weakens him, and you can attack Hans when Hans is on D and really get into his head. He has poor lateral moves, and gets frustrated by quicker guys.

Unfortunately, Zoubs is not yet a significant enough offensive threat to really attack Hans. Lance clearly needs work on the O end as well, but he is at least mobile enough to manke Hans run arround. I think we can forget about Hans being on Singler. Roy is not stupid enough for that. If Singler is in the game, Roy will assign another defender to Kyle, or go to a three-two zone to focus on our perimeter shooters. If I had to guess, he will assign Green to be Kyle's shadow, using one of the bigs (not Hans if Roy has his way) to help on Kyle when Singler heads to the post. I can't imagine a situation where Roy lets Hans chase Kyle arround. That would be the dumbest coaching decision of the year. Hans would get his points, but he might get a lot of fouls in the process, while barely slowing Singler down.

I can't be too concerned about G-Town, Memphis, or UCLA. If we play those teams in March, we will most likely be playing them late in the tourney, and even a loss would be acceptable. Though, only UCLA really scares me. Zoubs could at least slow Hibbert down, and Memphis's bigs won't kill you. They are like a souped up version of Duke this year. Great on the perimeter (maybe a little better than Duke) with capable to good true post players (a definite step up from Duke in this respect). But I can see Duke beating them if we are on. UCLA, with a healthy squad, well, yikes. But again, late season, ie FF or elite 8 matchup, thus an acceptable loss given this year's roster and experience.

UNC is the one matchup that I truly do not like. Unfortunately, they are our arch rival. I can really see Duke winning all but 3 conference (regular season and Tourney) games this year. Sadly, all those are against UNC. We might beat them, but it is not a great matchup for us.

I mean, if we only lost 3 games in conference total, on paper, that isn't so bad. But if all three were to UNC? Well, there is no way to discuss that scenario without the word Disaster. If we lose the tripple crown to UNC, nothing short of a FF run would salvage the season, I don't care who we beat, or lose to, in the NCAAs. A three loss year to UNC would leave a real bad taste in everybody's mouth.

Patrick Yates

[Slackerb]

IMO, that's a good dose of blue-shaded glasses there, especially the part about only losing to UNC in conference play. I mean, how many teams go all year in the ACC and lose only three games? Only the best.

Anyways, back to bigs:


I hope State plays all three against us. We'd kill them. But they won't, Lowe will rotate the three of them.

How does State match up with our perimeter, you might ask? And who from State will cover Singler?

We'll be fine.

I agree with you that State likely will play all three rarely, but you could see it in short spells. Costner might be able to play mediocre D on a guy like Singler. I don't think he could cover Singler well though. With the normal lineup, Singler will be covered by either Gavin Grant or Courtney Fells. Both have the speed to keep up with Singler, though neither are consistent at good defense in recent years.

State obviously doesn't match up well on the perimeter. Even last year, Scheyer and Paulus played well against State. However, I do think you guys are automatically assuming that State will be rubbish at the PG slot, and that's not a guarantee.

While they lose the steady ball-handler in Atsur, they gain speed in Degand. I've seen Degand play a few times this year, and not only is he fast (and I mean Ty Lawson fast), but he also can control the ball. He's had near zero turnovers so far and looks calm and composed running the point. He just can't score much.

Anyways, just thought I'd chime in my opinion on the matter, and to point out that as much as you may not like it, State's bigs may be a bigger problem than UNC's frontcourt, and that State's backcourt may not be as awful as everyone is counting on.

[MChambers]

Matchups go both ways. If Fells or Grant are on Singler, then that leaves one of the two State big men in the game to cover one of our wings. If you're Sidney Lowe, what do you do? Put Costner or Hickson on Henderson or Nelson (or Scheyer or Pocius)? No matter which you choose, Lowe has a horrible defensive matchup. He'll need 3 bigs, because one will be in foul trouble quickly.

As Jumbo has observed recently, it's easier to cover a big guy with a smaller guy than to cover a smaller guy with a big guy.

Don't get me wrong -- we'd be a much better team if we could add Costner or Hickson to our inside rotation. Still, I like our chances.

[JasonEvans]

A quick comment about matchups--

I think you will see teams that go big against us play a zone on D a lot. We all agree that the notion of Hasbro or Costner chasing Singler or King around on the perimeter is not a good scenario for UNC and State. Well, I think those teams will avoid that just playing a zone and not asking their big men to venture outside too much.

Those may be the perfect kind of games for Taylor King as his range can be a real zone-buster but he can still at least try to matchup inside with the ACC bigs.

--Jason "I worry a ton about the ability of these teams to hurt us on the offensive boards-- that is my biggest concern" Evans

[Slackerb]

^That's something that hasn't really been addressed yet in this thread. Most of the discussion is on offensive or defensive matchups, which can be big factors in the game. But something that WILL be a huge factor against Duke this year, and especially against UNC, State, etc. is rebounding.

[Jeffrey]

A quick comment about matchups--

I think you will see teams that go big against us play a zone on D a lot.

Those may be the perfect kind of games for Taylor King as his range can be a real zone-buster but he can still at least try to matchup inside with the ACC bigs.

--Jason "I worry a ton about the ability of these teams to hurt us on the offensive boards-- that is my biggest concern" Evans

Hi Jason,

I think you're right and I think it will prove to be a mistake against our team which has many guys capable of hitting 3's!

Best regards,
Jeffrey

[Jeffrey]

^That's something that hasn't really been addressed yet in this thread. Most of the discussion is on offensive or defensive matchups, which can be big factors in the game. But something that WILL be a huge factor against Duke this year, and especially against UNC, State, etc. is rebounding.

Hi,

Please read the thread again. Rebounding concerns were discussed on multiple occassions starting on the first page of the thread.

Best regards,
Jeffrey

[Jumbo]

--Jason "I worry a ton about the ability of these teams to hurt us on the offensive boards-- that is my biggest concern" Evans

J,
Duke's always been burned on the offensive boards, simply as a result of its help scheme. I'm not much more concerned this year. Singler is a really good defensive rebounder and as long as the other guys make a concerted effort to box out, Duke should be fine on the defensive boards. Rebounding is more about effort and discipline than pure size. Plus, Duke has some really good rebounding guards. My only concern is that if Duke is sending four or five guys hard to the defensive boards, it'll be harder to get the break going.