This team is very perplexing

[77devil]

Never in my 40 plus years of watching Duke BB can I remember a team with such high expectations fall so short. It is clear in hindsight that we expected too much. Yes this team was the youngest in the Coach K era, maybe ever, but that is not sufficient to explain the extent of underachievement. I have no doubt that in life they are great young men and a credit to the university. But there is a lack of fire, passion, or the will to win on the court that has been the hallmark of Coach K teams.

Hopefully the disappointment of this season will motivate everyone to work hard over the summer on individual weakenesses. Hopefully there is someone in the incoming class who can light the fire.

Coach K and the staff have a lot to think about.

[BlueDevilBaby]

I don't know that there were such high expectations for Duke with such a young team this year. Of course, they are Duke, and we always expect excellece. If Josh stays another year, I expect a much difference result next year with the incoming class. :D

[77devil]

I don't know that there were such high expectations for Duke with such a young team this year. Of course, they are Duke, and we always expect excellece. If Josh stays another year, I expect a much difference result next year with the incoming class. :D

Preseason #2 in the ACC, #11/12 in the national polls, #2-4 rated recruting class and as you say-the Duke factor. That is high expectations by the national BB community, let alone Duke nation.

The point though is the performance gap, even if expectations were more modest.

[SharkD]

I think, if, all the players on this team (including Pocius, Zoubek and Thomas) stick around, the next two years will be markedly better.

I think the youth and inexperience of this team was a significant factor in the conference record and ACC Tourney performance. I think there's lots of raw talent, but it needs significant polishing and I think the players need to acclimate to the college game and the ACC. (Both of which, I think, was happening at the end of the season, despite the last three losses.)

Sure, it feels like the sky is falling, but that's only because we, as Duke fans, have been spoiled by 10-straight seasons of being regular season and/or conference tourney champs. Duke still had a 20+ win season, despite the second-hardest schedule in the country, the hardest schedule in the conference and the youngest team in the last quarter century.

I think despite "not living up to expectations" -- which are might high when DUKE is written on the uniform -- there is a lot of positive notes to build on. Sure, there's a lot of room for improvement, but there's a foundation to build on over the summer -- something that wasn't there this year, aside from Greg, Josh and DeMarcus, who lived in the shadows of JJ and Shelden and suffered a series of injuries over the course of the last year. (Marty and Dave had so little playing time, that I practically considered them freshmen, this year.)

[dyedwab]

Earlier this season, I recall an announcer arguing that this team had trouble "being Duke". He went onto explain that this team struggled with the expectations, the intensity of opponents, and the scrutiny that come with the name on the front of the jersey.

Coach K had historically done a masterful job of getting teams to accept that level of microscopic attention and play with it. It strikes me that on some level, this needed it to be more than acceptance - it needed to turn it into a cause, a chip on its shoulder. Since we didn't have accomplished upper classmen, we needed to create an intensity (probably the wrong word) for this team that it doesn't have. Michael Jordan always used perceived slights, real or imagined (mostly the latter) to propel his game to higher levels. This team needs some of that, IMHO.

There is the famous story of Coach K after getting blown out by UVA early in his career. Responding to someone who said "here's to forgetting tonight," Coach K responded, "Here's to NEVER forgetting tonight." Our players who come back next year will hopefully have that attitude.

[A-Tex Devil]

I don't know that there were such high expectations for Duke with such a young team this year. Of course, they are Duke, and we always expect excellece. If Josh stays another year, I expect a much difference result next year with the incoming class. :D

If Josh stays, I hope we focus on him less on offense. We have alot of scoring talent on this offense but Josh isn't it. I think he can be a vital part of a VERY productive offense, but it won't be scoring.

We need someone to be THE MAN next year. We have a lot of guys that can do it -- Greg, DeMarcus, John, Josh, Gerald, perhaps Kyle Singler. But honestly, I hope DeMarcus and Josh take a backseat on the offensive end to guys that have seemed to WANT their shot this year -- Gerald, Greg and occasionally John.

Of course, if Josh would show up like in OT tonight, he might be the 20/10 guy he was hyped to be. Frustrating.

[throatybeard]

I still feel like I haven't learned anything about the team after 32 games.

[imagepro]

GP will become our leader and light the fire, in my opinion. BUt a good post and well stated. Lets hope they are all here TO "work over the summer".

[JStuart]

I still feel like I haven't learned anything about the team after 32 games.
I, too am perplexed, Throaty; I certainly expected them to come out fired up against State after the UNC game. They seemed more subdued than I would have imagined. Next play, but there seems to be a component missing.
JStuart

[gannon4429]

Agreed. It has been refreshing to see us go deeper into the bench and get some type of production, but it seems as thought we've lacked that one guy that could just throw the team on his back and seal a victory. We also seemed to lack "closing" ability in a few games this year and lost "comfortable" leads with under five minutes left. Killer instinct is crucial, especially in league play.

[Gozza]

I, too am perplexed, Throaty; I certainly expected them to come out fired up against State after the UNC game. They seemed more subdued than I would have imagined. Next play, but there seems to be a component missing.
JStuart

I don't think it's that perplexing. Our starting guards can't prevent penetration, nor penetrate against the quicker guards in the league. We don't have anyone who has consistently shown the ability to create his own shot (DeMarcus can get to the rim but has trouble finishing when he gets there). We don't have a post game (this is the most maddening, b/c McRoberts has the ability to be an effective post presence; there's just too much floating on the perimeter, and too much passing when Josh has already attained good position). They're basically a jump shooting team on offense, and play a man-to-man D despite giving up quickness to most of their ACC opponents.

Despite all that (or maybe b/c of it), I actually think K's done a great job getting this team as far as he has. It's amazing he was able to coax what he did out of Paulus after it seemed likely his season was going to disintegrate in January and his confidence was ebbing. Greg turned it around, and despite his athletic limitations, developed a fearlessness on offense that turned him into a clutch scorer for the team. And I would say that was the key element for this team, b/c he was truly the leader for the Devils once league play started.

I hate to be pessimistic, but I don't see this rapidly improving next year, b/c we still won't have the athleticism to lock down opposing guards in the man-to-man D and force steals. That has been the hallmark of Duke's defensive pressure, and Paulus and Scheyer won't be able to do it unless their physical development is swift. Maybe they could attend Demarcus' boot camp from last summer. :(

[CMS2478]

I agree, that it is not a knock on any of our guys.......just stating facts.

[Matches]

Here's my take - we are not an explosive offensive team. We struggle to score points in bunches. Our strength for most of the season has been stellar defense, and we have tried to win games in the 60's.

But we turn the ball over way too much to do that. If you're playing games in the 80's-90's, 17-18 turnovers per game won't kill you. But if you're trying to play a slower pace, you HAVE to limit turnovers. As the game gets slower, every possession gets more precious, and you simply can't afford to waste 18-20 of them.

That said, for all our struggles I have greatly enjoyed watching this team. They seem like a great bunch of kids who (at least until the last few games) have genuinely enjoyed playing together. I think there's a ton of potential there, and that this season's struggles are a speedbump on the way to something greater.

[evrdukie]

I'm sorry to disagree, but there's not enough potential with this group of players to expect next year to be significantly better. It's a discouraging situation.

[bhd28]

I'm sorry to disagree, but there's not enough potential with this group of players to expect next year to be significantly better. It's a discouraging situation.

So what is your prediction for the record next year in wins and losses? Same? One more win?

[captmojo]

Not so much that the Devils were not up to expectations as other teams were better than originally thought. Nationals yet to go, hopes should rise due to coaching staff experience if nothing else.

[willywoody]

I'm sorry to disagree, but there's not enough potential with this group of players to expect next year to be significantly better. It's a discouraging situation.

ya never know. everyone could stay, stay healthy and develop over the summer. an incoming freshman, or one of the current players might be the next great duke player to see his name hang in the rafters.

or

we may suffer losses to the nba or transfer and freshmen may take a couple of years to develop.

ya just never know.

[dukie8]

So what is your prediction for the record next year in wins and losses? Same? One more win?

what kind of a question is that without having seen the schedule? the difference between uconn's ocs and gonzaga's ocs could result in a swing of 10 games either way. i may be wrong, but i think what the previous poster was saying was that the 3 glaring weaknesses of this team -- weak pg play both on the offensive and defensive ends, weak inside presence on the offensive end and lack of a scorer -- likely will not be fixed next year. hopefully gh can address the scorer problem. we learned this year that no matter how much hype freshmen having coming in to temper your expectations. i don't see anything changing at pg.

[Demosthenes]

what kind of a question is that without having seen the schedule?

How did he keep him from looking at the schedule? I think you severly overestimate his power. ;)

[evrdukie]

I'm basically saying that I don't see anything that's likely to take care of the many deficiencies of this year's team. I would guess a won/loss record next year not much different from this year. I'm hoping, of course, but I don't have a very good feeling about it. I don't see a marquee player on the team. Missing athleticism and quickness isn't going to change. No very effective post presence. A team that's going to depend on throwing up predictable three pointers. No amount of good coaching can cancel those impediments. Honestly, I'm a little puzzled concerning how we ended up in this situation. The recruiting forecasts seemed to me to predict a good deal better. The only bright spot I see is Greg Paulus' improved play at point guard. For a while the point guard situation seemed like a developing castrophe. Plus the feeling I have that Paulus really wants to win. He's a competitor and I feel good about that. I really would like to see him succeed. I'm hoping Henderson surprises me and steps up. We'll just have to see, I guess. McRoberts is hard to figure. Once or twice a game he does something so beautiful it makes your jaw drop, then for the rest of the time he's just not much of a presence. I don't understand it.

[VaDukie]

I think Henderson will be a marquee player next year. The way he played against Maryland and UNC made my mouth water. I also think Singler will be a very special Freshmen.

[evrdukie]

I hope you're right. It's definitely possible that will happen. I sure hope so. I understand that we're all spoiled, but that doesn't make this season any less painful.

[dukie8]

I'm basically saying that I don't see anything that's likely to take care of the many deficiencies of this year's team. I would guess a won/loss record next year not much different from this year. I'm hoping, of course, but I don't have a very good feeling about it. I don't see a marquee player on the team. Missing athleticism and quickness isn't going to change. No very effective post presence. A team that's going to depend on throwing up predictable three pointers. No amount of good coaching can cancel those impediments. Honestly, I'm a little puzzled concerning how we ended up in this situation. The recruiting forecasts seemed to me to predict a good deal better. The only bright spot I see is Greg Paulus' improved play at point guard. For a while the point guard situation seemed like a developing castrophe. Plus the feeling I have that Paulus really wants to win. He's a competitor and I feel good about that. I really would like to see him succeed. I'm hoping Henderson surprises me and steps up. We'll just have to see, I guess. McRoberts is hard to figure. Once or twice a game he does something so beautiful it makes your jaw drop, then for the rest of the time he's just not much of a presence. I don't understand it.

i think that paulus's increased scoring is clouding your assessment of his ability to run the offense. i didn't see that improve during the second half of the season. here are some stats to think about:

hurley's AVERAGE assists/game by year:

1990 -- 7.6
1991 -- 7.4
1992 -- 7.6
1993 -- 8.2

paulus's HIGHEST assist total in 2007 -- 7 (twice)

[evrdukie]

You could be right. For a while there it seemed to me that he was really unravelling, so my post might just reflect relief.

[VaDukie]

dukie8,

Paulus doesn't exactly have Hill and Laettner to pass to this year. I'm certainly not saying that he's Hurley, but you have to consider supporting cast.

[dukie8]

i am considering the supporting cast and it doesn't change my mind that we get very little dribble penetration and that the supporting cast more often than not receives the ball in less than ideal spots. good things happen on offense when your point guard gets in the paint (we should know since we have seen so much of it on the wrong end this year).

[DCDevil2]

Wow - this thread has taken a surprising turn. I have been reading this board for many years, but have never posted until now.

It is one thing to be discouraged about the results from this year. I agree with the initial poster that this team has been very perplexing. At times, they play stiffling defense (remember the first half of the BC and St. Johns game), and fairly effective offense. Other times, the defense is soft and the offense is unproductive. Regardless of the struggles this year, however, it is really hard to believe that some appear to have written this group of players off entirely -

Evrdukie said: "There's not enough potential with this group to expect next year to be significantly better."

Maybe, I'm the eternal optimist. But I am floored by this statement. Kids get better, sometimes, much better. It is the rare freshman that can dominate (like Carmelo or Durant). Many don't even contribute that much. Most need time to develop and improve. We have good talent on this team, and they will get better over the summer.

Before you give up entirely on this team, look at how some of these former Duke players who played and/or scored little as a freshman improved during their career.

Chris Carrawell - 5.5 pts as a freshman and best known for defense on Tim Duncan (only 9.9. pts as a junior) / 16.9 pts and ACC player of the year as senior

Phil Henderson - 5.9 pts as a sophmore / 18.5 pts and a key member of the 1990 NCAA runner-up team as a senior

Brian Davis - 2.3 pts as a freshman / 11.2 pts as a senior and important member of two national championship teams

Alaa Abdelnaby - averaged less than 5 pts his first two years / 15.1 pts his senior year

Tony Lang - 4.3 pts as a freshman / 12.5 pts and an important member of the 1994 NCAA runner-up team as a senior

And how about these examples from around the ACC

Tom Gugliotta - 2.0 pts and 6 min as a freshman / 22.5 pts as a senior

Rick Fox - 4 pts as a freshman / 16.9 pts as a senior (and a pretty long NBA career)

Vinny Del Nelgro - averaged 2 pts a game his first two years / 16 pts as a senior (also played in the NBA)

Brendan Haywood - 2.9 pts as a freshman / 12.0 as a sophmore (and still playing in the NBA)

Shammond Williams - 1.7 pts and less than 5 minutes as a fresham / 16.8 pts as a senior

Drew Nichols - averaged less than 7 pts a game for three years / 17.8 pts as a senior

What's my point? Don't give up on these guys. They are talented. Paulus, Scheyer and Henderson will provide a strong nucleus for the backcourt for the next two years. Thomas (who reminds me a lot of Lang) and Zoubek will improve as they gain strength. McClure already improved significantly from his freshman year, and if he adds an offensive game, can become a much more complete player. Of course, Nelson will provide some much needed senior experience next year. And if Josh returns, and if he adds a more polished offensive game, watch out.

A couple of other points -

1. Paulus is not Hurley - there is no question about it. But, Hurley was one of the best college point guards in the past quarter century. Paulus does not need to be able to run the team like Hurley for this team to be very successful. Just look at Quin Snyder and Chris Duhon. Neither were anywhere close to Hurley's league as a pg, but both led Duke to the Final Four

2. Josh has been the focus of a lot of criticism, particularly for his lack of offensive polish. I think people sometimes have a short memory. Remember Shelden Williams his first two years. He could hardly stay on the floor beacuse of foul trouble, and he had only one offensive move - power it straight to the basket. Now his number hangs in the rafters. I guess he got better.

Keep the faith everyone. the season is not yet over. And there is much to look forward to in the years to come.

[Boswell]

Eloquently stated, DCDevil2. Thank you for bringing a welcomed (in my view) perspective and heightened maturity to this thread. We got it darn good.

[jimsumner]

"Never in my 40 plus years of watching Duke BB can I remember a team with such high expectations fall so short."

Never? Really? How about 1994-95 when Duke began the season ranked 8th and finished 13-18. That team started two seniors by the way.

In 1967 Duke started the season ranked 4th and won 18 games. Bob Verga and Bob Riedy were seniors that year. They lost in the first game in the NIT.

Two years later, Vic Bubas' last team, which had five seniors, started the season ranked 17th, started 3-0, jumped to 9th and finished 15-13. Didn't even make the NIT.

Duke started the 1979 season ranked #1 and practically annointed as the national champions. They won 22 games, the same number as this year's team, and ended their season losing to St. John's in their first NCAA game. That team's four seniors included All-America guard Jim Spanarkel

The following season Duke started ranked 3rd, jumped to #1, and went 7-7 in the ACC. Mike Gminski and Bob Bender were seniors.

Duke started 1985 ranked 6th, got as high as 2nd, went 8-6 in the ACC and lost in the ACCT and the NCAAs in the second round. Largely a junior-senior team.

Duke started 3rd in 1993, jumped to #1, finished third in the ACC, lost in the first round of the ACC and the second round of the NCAAs. Couple of seniors named Bobby Hurley and Thomas Hill.

Every one of these teams "underachieved" at least by the standards of today's fans. All had lots of talent, far more experience than this year's incredibly young team and were coached by guys named Bubas, Foster, or Krzyzewski.

What they didn't have was the internet, message boards, and the aura of spoiled entitlement that seems to have innundated much of the Duke fan base.

[vick]

I'm basically saying that I don't see anything that's likely to take care of the many deficiencies of this year's team. I would guess a won/loss record next year not much different from this year.

Without getting into the specifics of how players improve (DCDevil2 covered it nicely I think), just how much do you think we need to improve to be a better team next year? If you just add 2 points to Duke's performances this year (i.e., giving us the OT wins against VaTech and UVA, and the win over FSU), we would have finished the regular season 25-6 (11-5 ACC)--an identical record to UNC this year! That's a total of four points we're talking about that would have made the difference.

In order to win those sorts of close games that we lost this year, you need experience--which is exactly what we will have coming back.

I don't like to get into the game of "if such-and-such good things had happened, we would have been great!" because it ignores all the bad things that could have happened (but didn't), but I have to point out that Duke this year is 0-4 in games decided in OT or by 1 point. With more experience, I have little doubt that we would have performed better in those situations.

[bhd28]

I'm basically saying that I don't see anything that's likely to take care of the many deficiencies of this year's team. I would guess a won/loss record next year not much different from this year. I'm hoping, of course, but I don't have a very good feeling about it. I don't see a marquee player on the team. Missing athleticism and quickness isn't going to change. No very effective post presence. A team that's going to depend on throwing up predictable three pointers. No amount of good coaching can cancel those impediments. Honestly, I'm a little puzzled concerning how we ended up in this situation. The recruiting forecasts seemed to me to predict a good deal better. The only bright spot I see is Greg Paulus' improved play at point guard. For a while the point guard situation seemed like a developing castrophe. Plus the feeling I have that Paulus really wants to win. He's a competitor and I feel good about that. I really would like to see him succeed. I'm hoping Henderson surprises me and steps up. We'll just have to see, I guess. McRoberts is hard to figure. Once or twice a game he does something so beautiful it makes your jaw drop, then for the rest of the time he's just not much of a presence. I don't understand it.

Got it. My bad. I assume a healthy Josh with a summer to work on his game will improve. I also assume Zoubek will be better next year. I assume an incoming Singler will contribute to scoring options and that Nolan Smith will help to provide a good defender for opposing quick guards. I also assume that Henderson will play a bigger role next year and that he, Demarcus, and Smith will provide pretty athletic 2/3 players for Duke (and a pretty athletic backcourt when Smith plays point from time to time). Who knows, maybe Singler won't be as athletic or skilled as he is projected. Maybe Josh and Zoubek won't get any stronger or skilled. Maybe the team won't be any tougher next year than this. (Personally, I think that is the main thing this year that has hurt the team... they aren't menatlly tough enough right now and don't 'believe' that they are going to win those close games... if they can develop that confidence, then I think that itself would make a huge difference in those close games.) Maybe Duke will end up 8-8 again next year. Shoot, maybe Reynolds, Dowdell, and Thornton will be given an extra year of eligibility to help their teams against us again next year. It's possible. I guess I am just an optimist.

[evrdukie]

I guess optimism is a good thing. I tend to believe I'm more of a realist about this, but I hope I'm wrong. I certainly could be.

[Troublemaker]

About next year, Duke will improve tremendously just by getting a year older and being able to go 4-around-1 with 4 legitimate three-point threats. If Kyle Singler were nothing more than some 6'9" dude who can hit threes consistently, it would already improve Duke's offense significantly by spreading things further out, allowing better driving lanes, and allowing whoever the center is all the time and space in the world to score. But Singler is supposed to be so much more than just a three-point shooter. I think we will be much improved.

[evrdukie]

I'm hoping you're right and you might very well be. Frankly, I've lost some confidence in the pre-season assessments of some of these big-time high school players. If Singler turns out to be the real deal, it could mean a lot. He needs to be a game changer, though, for me to change my opinion about next year's prospects.

[bhd28]

I guess optimism is a good thing. I tend to believe I'm more of a realist about this, but I hope I'm wrong. I certainly could be.

That's cool, though I must say that in my opinion thinking players will not improve is more pessimism than realism. I don't worry about skills improving (Josh, Jon, Brian, and Gerald, for example should all have an idea of what they need to 'fix' and should improve skill and strength-wise... if they don't, our assistant coaches and strength and conditioning guys should really be replaced). I just worry that the team may not develop that 'DUKE mindset' by next year. I really hope that they will and trust Coach K to give this team confidence in themselves and trust in their teammates, though.

There is definitely something to be said for aiming low, I guess... it is hard to be dissapointed that way... though it could make for a long summer. Whatver you chose, I hope it helps you enjoy the offseason (mine will for me). :)

[evrdukie]

Thanks. We'll just have to see what happens next year. My off season won't actually be affected too much by this stuff. It's fun, but it's a game, after all, and doesn't play a really central role in my life.

[imagepro]

I bet you aren't the only one who feels that way Throaty!

[CDu]

To whomever said that the team shouldn't be perplexing at all, I completely agree with you.

The original predictions were based on the idea that Paulus and McRoberts would be battling for 1st-Team All-ACC, and that the young guys would fill in to roles, providing depth and balance. Paulus was supposed to expand on his solid freshman year and be the playmaking point guard in an up-tempo style, creating easy buckets for a plethora of offensive talents around him. McRoberts was supposed to step into the "go-to" guy role, replacing Shelden's offense inside. Scheyer would provide a decent 3-point threat, Henderson and Nelson would be the athletic wings that could change the game on defense and in transition, and McClure, Thomas, Boykin, and Zoubek would provide the depth inside.

Well, some of those things were off-target. Paulus has REALLY improved his shooting, but he has struggled handling aggressive perimeter defenses. He's been a huge boost as a shooter, but hasn't been very consistent as a playmaker or game manager this year. And McRoberts hasn't shown the ability to be a consistent scoring presence. Henderson struggled early with injuries and asthma, and is just finally starting to realize his potential. Zoubek and Thomas appear to be later bloomers, and aren't as developed as some prognosticators thought preseason. The others have done basically what was expected.

But there's really nothing that should be surprising with the team. Everything seems very straightforward. We don't have a consistent post presence. We don't have a consistent playmaking point guard. We don't have a "go-to" perimeter scorer. Without any of those things, it is VERY hard to achieve consistency offensively. Defensively, we're scrappy, but we're highly reliant on team defense, and are susceptible to matchup problems. Many of our losses can be attributed to matchups (including NC St, where Lowe is VERY good at finding and exploiting matchup problems).

The original expectations were too high, as Coach K said from the beginning. He knew this team wasn't necessarily a top 2 ACC team, especially given the strength of the conference this year.

The good news is that next year should be better. We'll have a year's growth for Scheyer, Henderson, Thomas, and Zoubek. Nelson will have another summer to work on his game. Paulus can work on his ballhandling more. And if we're lucky, we'll have one (or both) of McRoberts and Patterson to help on the post. We have help coming, too. Smith is a combo-guard with athleticism who can provide more depth on the wing. Singler is a Nowitski/Morrison type of player with size and the ability to score from inside or outside, and should help the offense a lot. And not insignificantly, the ACC may get a little lighter, with BC, FSU, Va Tech, UVa, Clemson, and maybe UNC taking a big step backwards with losses of key players.

[Constantstrain 81]

Our players have the ability. Being able to use that ability comes with strength and age and confidence. It is that simply. There are marvelous freshmen who come along now and then who can dominate right away - but they are few and far between.

Gerald, Jon, Lance - all of them have ability right now. We have seen their moves from time to time. They just lack the consistency and confidence and strength that comes with age.

Turnovers? That will get better once the players know each other better. I know that they have practiced together all year - but the college game is a fast one. You cannot play together at that level without knowing each others thoughts (let alone moves). That takes time.

We are going to be good. We were just points away from being very good this year. That is the fine line of college basketball. Throughout the season, how consistent were Lawson, Ellington, and Wright? They had long stretches of games where they were not a factor. Sometimes that cost UNC a game and sometimes they had enough to win without their "star" freshmen. Our freshmen were not so lucky. They had to perform with no one to pick them up. Josh, Greg, and Markie did a good job - but all coming off of injuries without the experience to shoulder the entire load.

We did good. We could have done better. We might have done worse.

The heck with next year. I want the Sweet 16 and beyond.

Go Duke!!