Post Game Thread - Duke 73 - Pitt 79

[Billy Dat]

Let er rip

[kshepinthehouse]

Would have liked to have seen what happened if Roach would have hit that reverse layup.

[uh_no]

Let er rip

team has a lot of heart to come back every game. team also isn't a tournament team right now.

[TywinBlue]

Congratulations to Coach Capel.

[-jk]

Signs of life. Hurt/Johnson can be a potent combo.

-jk

[proelitedota]

First game with JJ back, some disruption is expected. Against a good Pitt team at home the score was predictable.

On to the next one. I think we'll get much better with more games played.

[ChillinDuke]

Signs of life. But we need some consistency.

Any semblance of a routine would be nice for a young squad.

In the end there's no excuse for poor first half play game in and game out. This young team needs to figure out for themselves what college and ACC caliber play is - every single game. Come ready.

There's time. But we need wins.

- Chillin

[BigDuke6]

Why the zone? It made the game too easy for Pitt and didn’t generate turnovers and extra possessions this team absolutely needs.

[Troublemaker]

The zone was ill-advised considering Pitt had just played Syracuse twice. I know we sprung a 3-2 zone on them instead of the 2-3 zone but a lot of the principles to beat a 3-2 remain the same -- get the ball to the FT line area, throw it over the zone to cutters, spray the ball to the corners when the zone collapses to the middle, etc.

A lot of good happened in this game, including of course Jalen's performance but also a quintessential 3-and-D outing by Wendell with not much dribbling and zero turnovers, exactly how we need him to play. But I wish we had just spent the week practicing man-to-man and then playing it the entire game (instead of going to it as a last resort after the 3-2 zone had utterly failed and with our players in foul trouble). I think Duke would've won.

[CameronDuke]

The Duke team showed heart to claw back into the game after being down 15. Welcome back Jalen Johnson with a huge 24 and 15 double double. That kid is going to be a force for someone in the NBA.

Duke shot way too many 3s. 8-28 for the night. Would have liked to seen less 3s and more driving to the rim and trying to draw fouls. Pitt did a good job of that. Pitt shot 37 free throws tonight! Duke finished just 11-19 from the line. Duke had more rebounds and steals than Pitt. Duke fouled Pitt 24 times and Pitt fouled Duke just 15 times.

Need to find a way to either start knocking down 3s more efficiently or getting to the line through drawing contact.

Still lots of ACC games to be played but this team is not close to a Top 35-40 team in the country right now. I trust Coach K and his staff to get this team back on the right track sooner rather than later, though.

[Billy Dat]

Another game where we mount a furious comeback after being down 15, get really close, but never take a lead and fail to make the plays we need, on both ends of the court, at winning time.

The major positive was the play of Jalen Johnson who looked like an all conference player, especially in the second half.

The best player on the court, however, was Champagnie. It’s been a while since an opponent schooled us like that. Toney was also a beast. Great effort by Pittt, and Capel slays one of his mentors.

I like the potential of the Johnson, Moore, Hurt + guards line-up. Roach started better than he finished, DJ was fairly ineffective, but K went with him over Jordan.

We move forward. It doesn’t look good now, but the pieces of a solid team are there, maybe Johnson can catalyze a collective jump.

[sagegrouse]

Spirited effort from the team -- after really rotten starts in each half. That is the mark of a very immature team. Happened against VT as well.

[FerryFor50]

Slow start, but not as slow as previous games. But again, dug a hole too deep to get out of.

<ref gripe>
Champagnie is really good, but it’s mind boggling how he only picked up 1 foul with as aggressively he plays. And Pitt shot 37 FTs to Duke’s 19 (could have been 20+ with converted front ends of 1-1s). Wasn’t a case of Duke shooting more threes than Pitt; only 8 more attempts.

I thought the refs let them play to start the 2nd half and Duke made a run, but then they got whistle happy again.

Was the first game this year where I felt officiating was a factor.
<end ref gripe>

Bad passes, missed rotations... I’m surprised the score difference wasn’t greater.

Jalen Johnson had a great game and almost single handedly rescued them. Wendell showed some life. Unfortunately the guard play and Hurt weren’t their usual selves. Maybe we’ll get a game where everyone is playing well some time this season...

They did show some signs down the stretch of improvement. So hopefully that carries over to another tough game against Louisville.

[lmb]

Seemed like we should have gone to m2m defense earlier. Glad to see the energy at the end. Wish we could start seeing it from the beginning. Not sure of the stats but nothing seemed to fall for DJ.
Some bad no calls. Hmmm....trying to find some positive. Jalen had a good game and Hurt wasn't badly hurt

[CDu]

Tough loss. Some definite good things, but some definite bad things, culminating in the ultimate bad which was an important loss. And we still don't have a meaningful win this season.

The good:
- Jalen Johnson returned and made a statement. He is a stud, and the offense needs to work through him. He was also impactful on defense. Easily our best player
- Moore really thrived in this game as well. Solid contributions off the bench. If we're to emerge, he's going to need to be a key contributor
- After an awful first half, Hurt played better offensively in the second half.
- We fought back multiple times, including from a 15 point second half deficit. Unfortunately ...

The bad:
- I hate to question Coach K, but the zone seemed like a bad choice against Pitt. The 3-2 zone does have some nice attributes, but keeping track of Champagnie wasn't one of them. He absolutely lit us up, finding the holes in the zone and nailing nearly everything he put up.
- Virtually no impact from Goldwire tonight. He wasn't making things happen with his defense, and aside from easy looks he was not involved on offense.
- Baker was just awful on offense tonight. He doesn't appear to have any confidence, and consistently made the wrong decisions
- The freshman duo struggled tonight on offense. Especially Roach. 2-8 from Steward and 5-16 from Roach (along with 4 turnovers). The two were impactful defensively, but just really struggled tonight to score. If they are even mediocre, we might have won.
- Hurt was really outplayed by Champagnie in the first half. He just couldn't get it going. And Pitt really went after him on the defensive end, illustrating some of his limitations.
- A no-show from Brakefield
- Just a general lack of awareness by the team. Too many times we had guys forcing the action when we really should have been working everything through Johnson.

We got a phenomenal game from Johnson and a pretty good game from Moore. Hurt had an off-night overall, but was okay. But everyone else struggled. Unfortunately a wasted opportunity as we're now fighting an uphill battle. This was a game we needed to win.

Hopefully the return of Johnson helps clarify things moving forward, but we can't afford many more hiccups if we're going to make the tournament. Our level of play is going to have to step up soon, or the fears of missing the tournament will become a reality.

[kako]

5 thoughts

1. Losing sucks. The obvious silver lining is Johnson’s game. If he can continue, the season could turn around. I’ve thought all along that Johnson is the key to the season. But losing sucks. At this point, the minimum bar for success is just making the NCAAs.
2. Johnson was amazingly only 3 dimes away from a triple double. On the minus side, the man needs to learn to stay in the game. Duke needs his offense. If his defense lags in the near future, I can live with that (for now). We have to have seen Brakefield make his last start of the season, pending another injury (knock on wood). Brakefield looked like a fish out of water in the very short time he was on the floor.
3. I am not seeing Roach making his teammates better. He’s taking too many shots for a PG, he needs to look to set others up more. Too many turnovers. And when he drives, he’s going to shoot. I’d like to see him drive and dish a lot more.
4. The defense keyed on Hurt a lot. If Johnson can really become a force, could they start one of their big bodies for physicality and defense (?), and move Hurt to a forward spot? And keep Moore coming off the bench? Just a thought - could Hurt and Johnson run pick and rolls/pops?
5. A lot of holes in that zone. But perhaps play it more and learn to plug some of them up. And hopefully we don’t see guys light it up like Champagnie. That was a really impressive performance.

9F

[dukelion]

Good effort...eventually.

If this is the Johnson and Moore we get down the stretch then maybe we got a chance to sneak into the tourney.

[jipops]

K’s coaching (or non-coaching) choices continue to mystify.

Looking at the rest of the month, GTech looks like a maybe. But could very well be looking at a 5 game losing streak here.

[simplyluvin]

When all is said and done, this was a poor performance on both ends, and yet we came close. We shot really poorly from the arc and the stripe, yet somehow we got it to within two a couple of times late in the second half. Great effort to get it close from 15 down, but I hope the team learns from this game how to buckle down and push through.

One hope for the future...Jalen and Wendell both played well. Hurt had a sub-par game, but if we can have a "big three" supplmented with stronger guard play, I am starting to like this team's prospects. But this loss hurts. Pitt is good, but this was a road game we needed to win. At this point, I feel like we can sneak into the tournament with playing 10-5 the remainder of the regular season, barring virus-related cancelations. That's a really tall order.

[Troublemaker]

<ref gripe>
Champagnie is really good, but it’s mind boggling how he only picked up 1 foul with as aggressively he plays. And Pitt shot 37 FTs to Duke’s 19 (could have been 20+ with converted front ends of 1-1s). Wasn’t a case of Duke shooting more threes than Pitt; only 8 more attempts.

I thought the refs let them play to start the 2nd half and Duke made a run, but then they got whistle happy again.

Was the first game this year where I felt officiating was a factor.
<end ref gripe>


I thought most of the fouls were called correctly. Really, it seemed like a case of the 3-2 zone surprising/affecting our guys more than it surprised/affected Pitt. Obviously, when playing a brand new defense, you might not slide into the correct positions quickly enough when the offense is attacking because you're not used to the movements required. When that happens, "tweet", foul called on you.

[gofurman]

Another game where we mount a furious comeback after being down 15, get really close, but never take a lead and fail to make the plays we need, on both ends of the court, at winning time.

The major positive was the play of Jalen Johnson who looked like an all conference player, especially in the second half.

The best player on the court, however, was Champagnie. It’s been a while since an opponent schooled us like that. Toney was also a beast. Great effort by Pittt, and Capel slays one of his mentors.

I like the potential of the Johnson, Moore, Hurt + guards line-up. Roach started better than he finished, DJ was fairly ineffective, but K went with him over Jordan.

We move forward. It doesn’t look good now, but the pieces of a solid team are there, maybe Johnson can catalyze a collective jump.

Yup, another game with a big lead for the other team which is asking a lot.. just stay within 8/10...

Not sure why you keep a zone on a guy like Champagnie?? At 28 points for him I told my son .. "watch 'is - pass, shot score by Champagnie" - thats EXACTLY what happened.. he was just smiling up and down the court. Sure he was shocked we would LET him have those shots w a zone and see a basket that big. WHY K WHY? I do get that our D stopper - Goldwire - is too short to cover Champagnie but maybe Moore M2M on him? At least for a little while???
The only answer I have is maybe K felt we couldn't stay in front of the 3 super guards - Toney / Johnson and Champagnie?? Maybe he felt they were too fast? But this team had just blown out Syracuse and just played vs a zone so they were REALLY well prepared to face that zone oof ours which is not as good as the 'Cuse Zone D since they run it all the time and are longer. Really don't get that - Pitt JUST played and beat the Cuse by TWENTY who are better prepared to run that defense.. that makes no sense. n o n e

All that said - good takeaways, HUGE game by JJ and Moore did a ton.. Hurt took too long to get involved unfortunately though he did eventually. Good to see JJ and Moore as we know Hurt will bring it most games.

Other takeaways - YET AGAIN the other team made way more free throws than we did. If you want to simplify a W v L - they made 24 FTs .. we attempted to 19! We HAVE To get to the FT line much more.. If we get to the line just 5 more times we probably win that game. And we need to learn to foul less - though there were a few calls I felt were tough on Duke where we basically got out of the way and they still gave a foul against us. But Pitt was 24-37 FTs.. Duke 11-19. With all we did right and wrong if we get to the line a few more times and hit a few more FTs we may win. 37 attempts vs 19!

Honestly its a decent showing that we went --- 38% shooting overall (BAD), 28% from 3 (BAD) and 57% FT shooting (BAD) and still almost beat a good team

Need to quit getting down 15 points to start the game and get to the FT line more.

[FerryFor50]

I thought most of the fouls were called correctly. Really, it seemed like a case of the 3-2 zone surprising/affecting our guys more than it surprised/affected Pitt. Obviously, when playing a brand new defense, you might not slide into the correct positions quickly enough when the offense is attacking because you're not used to the movements required. When that happens, "tweet", foul called on you.

I had way fewer issues on the fouls called on Duke (other than a few where it looked like Duke players kept arms up) than the non-calls on the other end. Pitt was allowed to play physical defense without penalty.

[KandG]

Really nice comeback and spirited play overall after a lackluster opening, but I feel like I’ve seen variations on this game all season. Doing plenty to stay in the game, also doing just enough to let the game slip away. This was a very winnable game.

Jalen Johnson being as good as he was in the second half is encouraging for the rest of the season if he and Hurt can develop some chemistry. Right now our half court offense struggles so much with the inconsistent shooting and ability to key on Hurt like Pitt did. Johnson drawing double teams and finding open cutters and giving space for Hurt to post can make a big difference moving forward. Johnson’s ability to think and move several steps ahead of everyone else on the court just stands out.

I didn’t think the zone was as bad a decision as some are making it out to be, maybe questionable, but we erased their early lead, forced a fair number of questionable or bad passes from Pitt over the top of the zone, and combined with our pressure stayed in it for the most of the first half and second. However, we were way too soft on the boards to make the zone truly effective and once they found seams for Champagnie, it was definitely a struggle.

Sign of a young immature team: we take our first lead on Hurt’s three in the first half, immediately give up a three on the other end and then get totally flummoxed by Pitt’s zone look and let them build the lead back up quickly. Also, our aggression through most of the second half was encouraging, but after drawing fouls quickly on Pitt once Johnson got going (Pitt had 5 fouls to our 2 early in the second) we end up fouling too much and putting them in the bonus first.

Every time we threatened, we would undercut our own momentum because we couldn’t stop fouling once Pitt breached the top of the zone — back line defense was just too slow or too weak. Johnson fouling out was almost depressingly predictable given the numerous defensive errors and Pitt’s superior ball movement.

Rough game for Roach and Steward and thought Hurt was rattled by Pitt’s D for most of the game and seemed off his game until late in the second: lot of ball watching and passive challenges on defense. Baker was dreadful, that pass for the turnover and driving heads down into four defenders for another turnover felt so damaging happening when they did. Moore thankfully more than made up with his shooting and overall good play.

Hopefully the team stays healthy and develops more of a rhythm with the rest of the conference games coming fast and furious, barring any more COVID related postponements.

[BlueDevilStop]

Game recap and main takeaways. It is a shame this spectacular performance from Jalen did not result in a W.

https://bluedevilstop.com/duke-falls-to-pittsburgh-despite-heroic-performance-from-jalen-johnson/

[BlueDevilStop]

The Duke team showed heart to claw back into the game after being down 15. Welcome back Jalen Johnson with a huge 24 and 15 double double. That kid is going to be a force for someone in the NBA.

Duke shot way too many 3s. 8-28 for the night. Would have liked to seen less 3s and more driving to the rim and trying to draw fouls. Pitt did a good job of that. Pitt shot 37 free throws tonight! Duke finished just 11-19 from the line. Duke had more rebounds and steals than Pitt. Duke fouled Pitt 24 times and Pitt fouled Duke just 15 times.

Need to find a way to either start knocking down 3s more efficiently or getting to the line through drawing contact.

Still lots of ACC games to be played but this team is not close to a Top 35-40 team in the country right now. I trust Coach K and his staff to get this team back on the right track sooner rather than later, though.

It was good to see their effort to get back into the game. There were some bright moments outside of the opening minutes of both the first and second half. This team cannot afford to have anymore slow starts.

[Dukehk]

Outside of Jalen Johnson, nobody should be even thinking of going pro.

This is probably one of the poorest Duke teams I've watched in the last 20 years. Yikes.

I love the effort, but they look lost on defence. Hopefully they keep improving.

[pfrduke]

In a total of 7 minutes of game play (20:00-18:00 in the first; 4:00 in the first to 19:00 in the second) Pitt outscored us 27-3. The other 33 minutes of the game we outscored them by 18. It didn’t necessarily feel like a game where we outplayed them for 3/4 of it, but those 7 minutes really, really hurt. Can’t afford to get blitzed like that at the beginning/ends of halves.

[roywhite]

Coach Capel has learned a few things from Coach K:

His team consistently played harder
His team built a lead by closing out the 1st half strongly, and starting well in the 2nd half
His team made more free throws than his opponents' free throw attempts
Capel's team had better shot selection and better shooting % than his opponent

[Kedsy]

Statistically, this game was almost the exact same as last game. Obviously it's hard to compare a 3-2 zone in this one to the m2m vs. VaTech, but the results were similar.

OFFENSE

Possessions: 74.8 (our 3rd fastest game of the season, and our offense was not so hot in all three)
oRtg: 0.98 (1.07 adjusted; kind of blah, even adjusted, it's the equivalent of #81 in the country)
eFG%: 44.3% (yuck)
3pt%: 28.6% (lousy)
2pt%: 45.2% (blech)
%threes: 40.0% (again too high; our third straight game in which 40% or more of our shots were three-pointers; in those same three games, we shot 29.8% in aggregate from three, a pretty bad combination)
FT rate: 27.1% (not horrible but not good; the fact that this is our 3rd best FTR of the season is kinda embarrassing)
OR%: 30.6% (not good)
TO%: 14.7% (very good; 2nd best offensive TO% of the season)
a/to: 1.63:1
%assisted: 66.7% (highest %assisted of the season, probably due to Jalen Johnson)
fast break pts: 17 (23.3% of points; good)

DEFENSE

dRtg: 1.06 (1.01 adjusted; 6th straight unadjusted defense over 1.04; still poor adjusted, the equivalent of #154 in the nation)
eFG%: 52.8% (bad, for the 6th straight game)
3pt%: 35.0% (not terrible, but we need to get better)
2pt%: 53.1% (ugh; 6th straight game in which our opponents shot 50% or better from two)
%threes: 38.5% (they took a lot of threes and hit at a decent pace; not what you want)
FT rate: 71.1% (OMG; by far our worst FTR performance in a season in which we almost always put our opponents on the line too much)
DR%: 77.8% (excellent; 6th game this season (out of 9) with 75% DR% or better; 8th game 70% or better; this might be Coach K's best defensive rebounding team ever!)
TO%: 17.4% (not so hot; if we're going to give up so many easy shots, we have to turn them over more)
a/to: 1.62:1 (after 7 games in which our opponents failed to top 1:1 in this stat, we've now given up 1.6:1 in two straight)
%assisted: 87.5% (Pitt assisted on 21 of their 24 baskets; quite an achievement (for them))
stl%: 10.7% (adequate, not outstanding)
blk%: 9.6% (15.6% of 2pt shots) (good, again mostly due to Jalen Johnson)
fast break pts: 15 (19.0% of points; unfortunate)


Our D has been pretty bad for most of the season now (6 straight games out of 9). Our offense appeared to have turned a corner, but has slipped into a u-turn the past couple games. Maybe the resurgence of Jalen Johnson can save us, but we need to tighten up our defense and play some actual offense instead of jacking up so many threes.

[heyman25]

No expectations for Duke. Johnson played well but fouling out unfortunate. We got no closers. Perhaps they will get better but think likely no NCAA tournament and a losing record. Hope I am wrong but we always start digging a hole that team can’t recover. Winnable game but no winning time playmaker or players.

[Dukehk]

In a total of 7 minutes of game play (20:00-18:00 in the first; 4:00 in the first to 19:00 in the second) Pitt outscored us 27-3. The other 33 minutes of the game we outscored them by 18. It didn’t necessarily feel like a game where we outplayed them for 3/4 of it, but those 7 minutes really, really hurt. Can’t afford to get blitzed like that at the beginning/ends of halves.

Seems to be a recurring theme where we can't sustain long periods of good basketball.

Chalking it down to a completely new and young team, but time is running out a little now. They need to turn the corner otherwise we are probably going to miss the tournament.

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

Seems to be a recurring theme where we can't sustain long periods of good basketball.

Chalking it down to a completely new and young team, but time is running out a little now. They need to turn the corner otherwise we are probably going to miss the tournament.

Haven't yet learned to play well together, on offense and defense. Don't shoot well. Too many mistakes. Six freshmen, two sophomores, one junior, one senior, one grad transfer. And a short season.

[hsheffield]

disappointing for sure.

but I was glad to see Moore get some of his mojo back. hopefully he's been cured of the yips

JJ has stud potential once he gets his rhythm

Hurt reminds me a little of Single's quiet, stoic MO



did anyone else think that Pitt was playing defense more typical of Duke? aggressive, lots of help...

don't know how many TO we had, but a lot of them were just plain ugly

[jv001]

I think playing zone takes away what Goldwire does best and that's playing very good defense. It limits his steals and reduces our fast break points. I believe Coach K didn't think our small guards could handle their big perimeter players in man defense. I don't like the way Roach plays point guard. He makes too many turnovers and fails to get the ball to open shooters at the right time. DJ has really gone into a funk shooting the three pointer. If our guards play a average game, we win and if we play man2man I think we win. It was too easy for Pitt's best two players to find open holes in that sorry zone defense. I didn't think I'd ever say Coach K don't play a zone tonight but I did last night. There's been years we had the players to play a decent zone but I don't think this is the year. If Jalen can play like he did last night and our guards improve we might get on a run and win the ACCT and that might be the only way we play in the NCAAT.
Congratulations to Coach Capel for his win over his teacher and it looks like he out coached the GOAT.

GoDuke!

[Acymetric]

The team fought really hard to make it a game down the stretch after getting down big, so big props for that. On the other hand, I see a fair amount of optimism about what this team can be this year, and I just don't see it. I don't think we're a very good team, and I don't see the potential for us to develop into a very good team this season. I'm starting to feel a little apprehensive/pessimistic even about next season, although I haven't looked too deep into who our incoming recruits will be.

[Billy Dat]

K presser transcript
https://goduke.com/documents/2021/1/20/Duke_Pitt_Coach_K_Quotes.pdf

Quote about needing all our guys to play well at the same time:

"Jalen had a magnificent game and he's just started to be with us. If he comes close to doing that every game, then that's something that we can count on every game. You're not necessarily going to get 24 and 16, and seven assists and no turnovers, but somebody who can create and manufacturer shots. He did well and Matt [Hurt] has got to play better. You know, he had a horrible first half. Then Wendell [Moore] played well, now he's got to play well again. For us to figure out a team, there has to be some level of consistency of performance by all the kids
so you can define roles."

Quote about how we have lacked a sense of the moment about WHEN we need to make big plays/execute big sequences:

"When you go up, you got to hit both of one-of-ones, not one of them. When you drive the ball off your foul, you gotta put that damn thing in every once in a while, so you don't you, you lose points. We’re 11-for-19 from the free throw line and in just some critical times."

[BlueDevilStop]

Do you think Goldwire has a decrease in minutes moving forward or was last night an outlier?

[weezie]

I had way fewer issues on the fouls called on Duke (other than a few where it looked like Duke players kept arms up) than the non-calls on the other end. Pitt was allowed to play physical defense without penalty.

Yes and Champagnie's constant woofing went unnoticed.
Hurt's ankle added to the disjointedness but Johnson was a delight. Baker has become a liability. He's looking totally confused. Wendell played like an ekg strip. Guards are interchangeably headshaking.
But, if they can beat the holes...

[CDu]

The team fought really hard to make it a game down the stretch after getting down big, so big props for that. On the other hand, I see a fair amount of optimism about what this team can be this year, and I just don't see it. I don't think we're a very good team, and I don't see the potential for us to develop into a very good team this season. I'm starting to feel a little apprehensive/pessimistic even about next season, although I haven't looked too deep into who our incoming recruits will be.

I wouldn’t be worried about next year. We have a couple of studs coming, with the possibility of 1-2 more studs. And if guys like Roach, Steward, and Moore return, we will be in great shape, combining more experience than usual with a star-studded freshman group.

As for this year, I disagree on the potential. We have now two guys capable of first-team All-ACC level, and a third playing on the fringe of third-team level. That alone should keep us competitive. What we lack is cohesion and decision-making, along with few good shooters. Hopefully Coach K can get Roach to stop shooting so many 3s (he seems to have gotten the ballhandling message to Moore) and we build the offense around Johnson and Hurt.

It isn’t likely to be a vintage Duke team for sure. And there is a very real chance we miss the dance. But I do think there is more talent here than you are giving credit for.

[CDu]

Do you think Goldwire has a decrease in minutes moving forward or was last night an outlier?

I think this was a blip, but he clearly wasn’t effective last night. Perhaps it was the zone neutering his skill set (basically on-ball defense). Louisville seems like a good target for a zone too, so if we go zone and he struggles again his minutes could get slashed again. Worth keeping an eye on.

I will say though that if Baker continues to play poorly it will be hard to keep Goldwire on the bench.

[dukelifer]

K presser transcript
https://goduke.com/documents/2021/1/20/Duke_Pitt_Coach_K_Quotes.pdf

Quote about needing all our guys to play well at the same time:

"Jalen had a magnificent game and he's just started to be with us. If he comes close to doing that every game, then that's something that we can count on every game. You're not necessarily going to get 24 and 16, and seven assists and no turnovers, but somebody who can create and manufacturer shots. He did well and Matt [Hurt] has got to play better. You know, he had a horrible first half. Then Wendell [Moore] played well, now he's got to play well again. For us to figure out a team, there has to be some level of consistency of performance by all the kids
so you can define roles."

Quote about how we have lacked a sense of the moment about WHEN we need to make big plays/execute big sequences:

"When you go up, you got to hit both of one-of-ones, not one of them. When you drive the ball off your foul, you gotta put that damn thing in every once in a while, so you don't you, you lose points. We’re 11-for-19 from the free throw line and in just some critical times."

The team is getting into bad habits. The inability to close out halves is a sign of immaturity and lack of on court leadership. There are a number of likable kids and there are individual improvements- Roach in particular- but team play is poor. It is very frustrating to watch the mistakes made over and over again. The long delays between games is not helping. Feels like a lost season for players, coaches and fans alike. Will continue to muddle through.

[jv001]

I think this was a blip, but he clearly wasn’t effective last night. Perhaps it was the zone neutering his skill set (basically on-ball defense). Louisville seems like a good target for a zone too, so if we go zone and he struggles again his minutes could get slashed again. Worth keeping an eye on.

I will say though that if Baker continues to play poorly it will be hard to keep Goldwire on the bench.

I will just add to your two real good posts, Brakefield needs to pick up his play or he needs to sit right beside Baker. Well social distance anyway.

GoDuke!

[peteandpete]

The decision to zone was a good one. Let's be honest; we had no one who could guard their main guy. Hopefully, the foul disparity was an aberration. Teams playing that much zone seldom commit that many fouls. We are also an average team that is: young, inconsistent, doesn't shoot well, lacks protection at the rim, and in spite of quickness at several positions, has had difficulty denying penetration. We start slowly; are inconsistent at the foul line (eight misses and one was a front end, so nine potential points squandered); and settle for too many jump shots (often early in the shot clock) instead of forcing the defense to work harder. As so many of us have said about football, honest assessment is necessary before improvement can take place. Let's go Duke!

[roywhite]

The team is getting into bad habits. The inability to close out halves is a sign of immaturity and lack of on court leadership. There are a number of likable kids and there are individual improvements- Roach in particular- but team play is poor. It is very frustrating to watch the mistakes made over and over again. The long delays between games is not helping. Feels like a lost season for players, coaches and fans alike. Will continue to muddle through.

I was glad to see Coach K being blunt in some of his criticisms.

Lost season? perhaps, but it feels to me like we are now in more of a flow -- regular games, regular practices, school back in session and fellow students around, Coach K determined to bring up the level of play, etc.

[AtlDuke72]

[QUOTE=hsheffield;1326361]disappointing for sure.



JJ has stud potential once he gets his rhythm


Johnson had 18 points, 10 rebounds and 4 assists and a couple of blocks in SECOND HALF! Looked like Grant Hill to me. I am not sure how he can “get his rhythm” any better than that. Couple of very questionable calls on him or Duke might have won.

[bluenorth]

I'm seeing a lot of young players developing their basketball IQ. Unfortunately, that comes at the cost of making mistakes. For example, Johnson's fifth foul was in a situation where a veteran player simply does not even think about reaching for the ball. Another is that even in a zone you do not lose track of Champagnie for one second - the guy put up a double double in the first half, so if he's not scoring he just might be going after a rebound. Yet another: after a nice steal and attacking in transition why throw a long pass to Tape? Even if he manages a clean catch, what is he going to do with the ball in that position? I could go on, but the theme is that these young guys are learning on the fly, and are paying for it. It will take time and repetitions, and the season is getting short.

[kshepinthehouse]

I wouldn’t be worried about next year. We have a couple of studs coming, with the possibility of 1-2 more studs. And if guys like Roach, Steward, and Moore return, we will be in great shape, combining more experience than usual with a star-studded freshman group.

As for this year, I disagree on the potential. We have now two guys capable of first-team All-ACC level, and a third playing on the fringe of third-team level. That alone should keep us competitive. What we lack is cohesion and decision-making, along with few good shooters. Hopefully Coach K can get Roach to stop shooting so many 3s (he seems to have gotten the ballhandling message to Moore) and we build the offense around Johnson and Hurt.

It isn’t likely to be a vintage Duke team for sure. And there is a very real chance we miss the dance. But I do think there is more talent here than you are giving credit for.

While it’s true this year we have some nice individual pieces, it’s also apparent they don’t come together to form a cohesive team. At least not yet anyway and not to the level we are used to at Duke.

[Billy Dat]

Yet another: after a nice steal and attacking in transition why throw a long pass to Tape? Even if he manages a clean catch, what is he going to do with the ball in that position? I could go on, but the theme is that these young guys are learning on the fly, and are paying for it. It will take time and repetitions, and the season is getting short.

You hit upon a key topic here. Our young guys make these kinds of mistakes all the time. The Johnson to Tape attempted fast break is a good one. Another is DJ driving the lane and as I am yelling for him to take a floater, he attempts to dump it off to Goldwire who is right under the rim, among the trees. I think we all know at this point that unless Jordan has a wide open uncontested lay-up (and even those are dicey), or a feet-set squared up uncontested 3 from the wing, he's probably not the right guy to pass to. Roach did the same thing in the second half, I can't remember the sequence but it was in the halfcourt and maybe the target was, again, Goldwire, but I was, again, yelling at the screen, "The PG needs to know who to pass to when, and who not to!!!"

They are young, they are learning, serenity now...

[rsvman]

What can I say that hasn't already been said? Y'all saw the same game that I saw.

THE GOOD
Jalen Johnson can flat-out beast. This should close the mouths of those who said he couldn't play well against decent competition, or that his flashes of brilliance were just a fluke. The guy is a baller. Foul trouble and the injury has hidden that fact from some people, but it's no secret anymore.

Moore looked like a solid ACC player out there and did exactly what we need him to do. His relative maturity on the court was also very welcome.

THE BAD
Team defense was not very good. How to you allow Sham-penny open looks when he's one of only two guys on their team that was hot? It happened over and over again.

Guard shooting/outside shooting in general. Horrible. We had some good looks, and also some forced shots; outcome was the same regardless.

"Big guys that don't start." Collectively, they weren't good. Offensively they don't go up strong enough. On defense their rotations are too slow.

THE UGLY
Baker. I've been a big proponent of Baker, and he played well against Virginia Tech, but holy crap he was awful last night.

Spotting the other team 8-14 points in every single game. THIS HAS GOT TO STOP! For the life of me I can't understand why they come out looking like they're not really sure which sport is being played. After spotting the other team a sizable lead, we generally play them even for the rest of the game, proving that we are just as good as the other team. Why do we want to start the game in the hole, over and over again? I just don't understand what is happening. If Coach K understood it, he would've solved it by now, so I suspect he is just as flummoxed as we are.

[gumbomoop]

I was glad to see Coach K being blunt in some of his criticisms.

Just a few comments about individual players. Following the constructive criticism standard, I’ll be less blunt than K.

Goldwire — Because his offense is improved but still limited, going zone plays against his great strength in m2m. I’d prefer more m2m, with some full-court pressing, to maximize Goldwire’s excellent D.

Brakefield — Among other players, K’s reference to that quick timeout was aimed at Brakefield, who entered the doghouse, I hope only temporarily.

Baker — I am always surprised when perimeter players do not improve their handle over several years. For me, dribbling is the single most important skill for perimeter players. Good handle provides O-rhythm, which Baker lacks. Opposing coaches know his handle is weak, and so instruct players to crowd him. Baker makes a good hustle play or two every game.

Williams — Seems lost on D as much as on O. Perhaps he will have good moments as shot-blocker this season, but he’s a promising project for now.

Tapé — So Tapé seems likely to see his minutes increase. I don’t see an ACC-level player, but he can contribute a bit. His experience probably puts him ahead of Williams going forward.

Rotation — If K sticks mostly with m2m, I would expect 6 players to average 30+ mpg, leaving 15-20 mpg to the other 5 guys. In any game, a couple of those 5 might get 8-10 minutes. I suspect Coleman and Williams will not play much. Brakefield, Baker, and Tapé will be our bench. Moore probably 6th man/starter.

If K decides this has to be a zone team, I’ll be disappointed, as I do enjoy watching Goldwire’s D.

[FerryFor50]

I think this was a blip, but he clearly wasn’t effective last night. Perhaps it was the zone neutering his skill set (basically on-ball defense). Louisville seems like a good target for a zone too, so if we go zone and he struggles again his minutes could get slashed again. Worth keeping an eye on.

I will say though that if Baker continues to play poorly it will be hard to keep Goldwire on the bench.

Baker manages to have 1 or 2 fantastic defensive hustle plays every game, but seems to negate it with a turnover or a bad shooting foul.

Love his motor, but he needs to learn how to control it better.

[azzefkram]

A disappointing loss but I thought Duke played well for most of the game. Jalen and Wendell had great games. Matt had an okay game. DJ had a less than okay but not dreadful game. Everyone else was dreadful. I am definitely not pessimistic about this team's potential but I wouldn't call myself optimistic as it's getting late early. The dreadful stretches of play need to find the exit in an expedient manner. If those stretches could be merely bad as opposed to dreadful, I think this team could make some noise.

This team needs to learn to string together good plays.

[UrinalCake]

I agree with most of the comments that have already been made. Really didn't understand the use of the zone or why we stuck with it so long after giving up 43 points in the first half. My guess is that K wanted to prevent us from picking up so many fouls (it didn't) and maybe protect Johnson from being exposed defensively since he hasn't had as much practice. It also let us play a bigger lineup. But it allowed Pitt to find the gaps and have wide open looks all game long. It also took us away from our full court pressure which is really the best thing that we do, perhaps the only thing we do really well as a team.

Johnson's performance gives us reason for optimism, he showed why he was an elite recruit and his absence certainly impacted us even though he wasn't dominating prior to his injury. He made some sick passes, not just the behind the head out of a triple team but also a kickout prior to that when he overpenetrated and was surrounded in the lane yet still managed to get the ball out to an open shooter. His court vision and passing are really excellent and I agree that we need to run the offense through him since neither Roach nor Steward play like natural point guards. I do wonder how much of Hurt's quiet game was related to having to adjust to having Johnson back. Hopefully they can grow and find ways to keep both involved. Hurt was also in foul trouble all game, keeping him and Johnson out of foul trouble is going to be a recurring theme this season I suspect.

The overall flow of the game felt very similar to VT - fall behind early, claw our way back, briefly take the lead (or in the case of VT come within a point) only to have them pull away to close it out. Roach's missed layup leading to Johnson fouling out was pretty much the nail in the coffin. He hits that and it's a two point game and we keep our momentum going. Baker's performance was a real bummer, he had that bad turnover off an inbounds and another bad pass at his teammate's feet that led to a pick six the other way. I think his confidence is down and the mistakes are compounding on themselves much like what Moore went through earlier.

As a fan I'm just taking things one game at a time. Expectations are low but I still enjoy watching the team and will always root for them no matter what.

[jv001]

Just a few comments about individual players. Following the constructive criticism standard, I’ll be less blunt than K.

Goldwire — Because his offense is improved but still limited, going zone plays against his great strength in m2m. I’d prefer more m2m, with some full-court pressing, to maximize Goldwire’s excellent D.

Brakefield — Among other players, K’s reference to that quick timeout was aimed at Brakefield, who entered the doghouse, I hope only temporarily.

Baker — I am always surprised when perimeter players do not improve their handle over several years. For me, dribbling is the single most important skill for perimeter players. Good handle provides O-rhythm, which Baker lacks. Opposing coaches know his handle is weak, and so instruct players to crowd him. Baker makes a good hustle play or two every game.

Williams — Seems lost on D as much as on O. Perhaps he will have good moments as shot-blocker this season, but he’s a promising project for now.

Tapé — So Tapé seems likely to see his minutes increase. I don’t see an ACC-level player, but he can contribute a bit. His experience probably puts him ahead of Williams going forward.

Rotation — If K sticks mostly with m2m, I would expect 6 players to average 30+ mpg, leaving 15-20 mpg to the other 5 guys. In any game, a couple of those 5 might get 8-10 minutes. I suspect Coleman and Williams will not play much. Brakefield, Baker, and Tapé will be our bench. Moore probably 6th man/starter.

If K decides this has to be a zone team, I’ll be disappointed, as I do enjoy watching Goldwire’s D.

You and I may be disappointed about the use of zone. I'm pretty sure Coach K said in his presser that the zone would be part of the team's defense the rest of the season. This really limits Goldwire's contributions to the team. The zone defense I saw last night was a disaster.

GoDuke!

[SouthernDukie]

Roach's missed layup leading to Johnson fouling out was pretty much the nail in the coffin. He hits that and it's a two point game and we keep our momentum going...

As a fan I'm just taking things one game at a time. Expectations are low but I still enjoy watching the team and will always root for them no matter what.

The missed layup and subsequent Jalen foul-out was a key moment in the game. Like you, I think we have a shot at pulling out the win if Roach can get that relatively easy shot to go in. A shame to be sure.

I'm also in the same boat you are in terms of expectations. Still thinking anything above a .500 record will have to be considered a plus for this particular Blue Devils team.

Some ups and downs in game, which we all know is going to be the norm when you have such a young team. The potential is there for a late season surge if all these guys can continue to grow and eliminate the small mistakes. But there's no predicting that one way or the other. So I'm just going to enjoy the ride and keep my expectations low for the time being.

[DukieInBrasil]

yet again Duke lost by less than the deficit they created right out of the gates: down by 8 less than 3 minutes into the game. Sorry, but that's a coaching thing, somehow or another the coaching staff is just not getting thru to this collection of players as to how to start a game withe energy and focus necessary to win. Also, we missed more FTs than the final difference. The main things i see about this Duke squad are 1) they are still a collection of players and not a team and 2) they haven't figure out how to do the little things that make winning basketball. For example, immediately after Hurt hit the 3 that put Duke up, the team gave up a 3 less than 5 seconds later that gave Pitt back the lead which they never relinquished again.
The Jaemyn Brakefield Experiment has finally come to an end. He had a nice little hot streak for a bit, but has been ice cold ever since the team started looking to him for production.
With all this supposed depth, we don't really have enough players to utilize a legitimate 6.5 man rotation, with Brakefield being the 0.5. Williams, Baker and Tapé are not ACC level bench players at the moment.
Otoh, we did see some good things in the loss. Jalen is back and payed like a stud, and i can't imagine him not starting anymore.
Wendell Moore put up a very nice game, and i hope that this is an indicator that he and the coaching staff have found ways to maximize his skills. JJ driving and kicking to a wide-open Moore worked well. Despite being horrid from 3, Roach played well driving to the rim. Otoh, our PG having more turns than assists and fouling out are not conducive to winning.

[UrinalCake]

Speaking of coaching, how about a shout out to Capel for what I thought was an excellent job? His team was not expecting the zone, and they probably weren't prepared for Johnson to come on so strong in his first full game back, but they made adjustments in game and took advantage of what Duke gave them. All signs of good coaching. They focused their defense on Hurt, knowing that nobody else on the team was likely to do much damage, and put in a zone of their own when they knew we couldn't hit shots.

Capel has signed significantly fewer elite recruits than K since taking over at Pitt, yet he just beat K in a fairly solid win. If we're keeping a tally on who might eventually take over, he scored some big points last night at least in my book

[rsvman]

Speaking of coaching, how about a shout out to Capel for what I thought was an excellent job? His team was not expecting the zone, and they probably weren't prepared for Johnson to come on so strong in his first full game back, but they made adjustments in game and took advantage of what Duke gave them. All signs of good coaching. They focused their defense on Hurt, knowing that nobody else on the team was likely to do much damage, and put in a zone of their own when they knew we couldn't hit shots.

Capel has signed significantly fewer elite recruits than K since taking over at Pitt, yet he just beat K in a fairly solid win. If we're keeping a tally on who might eventually take over, he scored some big points last night at least in my book

I sincerely hope he is not K's successor. I agree that he did a good job last night and that, overall, he has done pretty well at Pitt, which is not a recruiting mecca (although Jamie Dixon was much more successful). I just don't think Capel's body of work is all that impressive. Yes, he is a capable coach, but he is not an excellent one (in my opinion); if he is, he hasn't shown it convincingly yet.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I sincerely hope he is not K's successor. I agree that he did a good job last night and that, overall, he has done pretty well at Pitt, which is not a recruiting mecca (although Jamie Dixon was much more successful). I just don't think Capel's body of work is all that impressive. Yes, he is a capable coach, but he is not an excellent one (in my opinion); if he is, he hasn't shown it convincingly yet.

We haven't had a deep dive into succession for a little bit. I saw a ESPN+ article that was about next coaches at Duke and UNC. I don't have the subscription, but I also doubt there was anything new or of note.

[sagegrouse]

yet again Duke lost by less than the deficit they created right out of the gates: down by 8 less than 3 minutes into the game. Sorry, but that's a coaching thing, somehow or another the coaching staff is just not getting thru to this collection of players as to how to start a game withe energy and focus necessary to win. Also, we missed more FTs than the final difference. The main things i see about this Duke squad are 1) they are still a collection of players and not a team and 2) they haven't figure out how to do the little things that make winning basketball. For example, immediately after Hurt hit the 3 that put Duke up, the team gave up a 3 less than 5 seconds later that gave Pitt back the lead which they never relinquished again.
The Jaemyn Brakefield Experiment has finally come to an end. He had a nice little hot streak for a bit, but has been ice cold ever since the team started looking to him for production.
With all this supposed depth, we don't really have enough players to utilize a legitimate 6.5 man rotation, with Brakefield being the 0.5. Williams, Baker and Tapé are not ACC level bench players at the moment.
Otoh, we did see some good things in the loss. Jalen is back and payed like a stud, and i can't imagine him not starting anymore.
Wendell Moore put up a very nice game, and i hope that this is an indicator that he and the coaching staff have found ways to maximize his skills. JJ driving and kicking to a wide-open Moore worked well. Despite being horrid from 3, Roach played well driving to the rim. Otoh, our PG having more turns than assists and fouling out are not conducive to winning.

Just gonna post the same thing. "Stage fright" is a fatal disease on the basketball court. We went down 0-8 from the git-go. Then, in the second half we gave up the first five points to trail by 14 points. Oh, g-r-r-r-eat!! A freshman-laden team has to dig out of a massive hole on the road against a good team. Almost never.

The team has to GROW UP!!

[Music man55]

Ok, yea I know Dukes’ young team lost . I know they fell behind out of the gate again. I know they need to shoot freethrows better and execute better offense. But I will say right now that we have found our go to guy and his name is Jalen Johnson! What a performance! Just sit back everybody and watch this guy from here on out. If Wendell Moore rounds into shape, which it looks like he is beginning to, to go along with Hurt and now Johnson, lookout! This young team is only going to keep getting better and , yea, I wish they had managed to win. But I am excited to watch this young team grow and improve. Hold on to your seat belts everybody!

[Troublemaker]

The decision to zone was a good one. Let's be honest; we had no one who could guard their main guy. Hopefully, the foul disparity was an aberration. Teams playing that much zone seldom commit that many fouls.

Haha, well the zone certainly didn't help us contain Champagnie at all! If that was the motivation, the zone failed. The zone also got other Pitt players going. Xavier Johnson is a decent PG but he racked up a season high 11 assists because he kept finding teammates who exploited holes in our zone. (Whereas our m2m historically has kept opponent assists low because our switching and pressure take them out of their sets.) You argue that the fouls were an "aberration" as you put it but maybe not if we're literally playing the defense for the first time in a live game; we didn't move well enough in the zone because we're inexperienced in it, and thus we fouled. Coach always talks about the importance of gaining experience and playing instinctively, and going to a brand new defense seems to cut against that.

Finally, another thing is that a 3-2 zone is supposed to be used against an opponent that's very good at shooting the ball but isn't good at attacking the basket; Pitt is the opposite of that, and I'm not surprised that they were able to score well around the basket against our 3-2 zone. It just seems like a bad decision, and I wish we had just taken our chances in m2m against Pitt's #91-ranked offense. Going into the game, I definitely was not thinking, "Oh boy we're not going to be able to guard this team; I hope to see some sort of junk defense to surprise them."

[BlueDevilStop]

Baker manages to have 1 or 2 fantastic defensive hustle plays every game, but seems to negate it with a turnover or a bad shooting foul.

Love his motor, but he needs to learn how to control it better.

Agreed. The hustle plays he makes are always great to see, they can really spark the team at times. He just look lost offensively unfortunately. Playing with zero confidence.

[Troublemaker]

The team fought really hard to make it a game down the stretch after getting down big, so big props for that. On the other hand, I see a fair amount of optimism about what this team can be this year, and I just don't see it. I don't think we're a very good team, and I don't see the potential for us to develop into a very good team this season. I'm starting to feel a little apprehensive/pessimistic even about next season, although I haven't looked too deep into who our incoming recruits will be.



As for this year, I disagree on the potential. We have now two guys capable of first-team All-ACC level, and a third playing on the fringe of third-team level. That alone should keep us competitive. What we lack is cohesion and decision-making, along with few good shooters. Hopefully Coach K can get Roach to stop shooting so many 3s (he seems to have gotten the ballhandling message to Moore) and we build the offense around Johnson and Hurt.

Yeah, I agree with CDu. The potential is pretty easy to see, imo, but the question is the consistency. Jalen put up a Coppin St-like stat line (except it was even more impressive since it came against a pretty good ACC team in Pitt), but when's the next time we will see a great performance from him? He followed up Coppin St with three poor games. If the vast majority of Jalen's remaining games this season are played at yesterday's level (not necessarily meaning he will produce that kind of stat line), then like CDu said, he's a first-team ACC player. Heck, an All-American. Matt had a poor game yesterday (for him, as he still put up a 111 offensive rating), but he's been very consistent before that and could be / should be first-team ACC. Wendell yesterday played like a high-end 3-and-D role player. If we can get him to continue playing that style of ball (one where he doesn't create/dribble much, thus limiting turnovers) and shoot confidently like he did yesterday and against BC, then he's one of the best two-way starting SFs in the league. Overall, if Jalen and Wendell play to their potential with Matt-like consistency, that's one of the best and versatile frontcourts in the country. But it's "show me" time for the consistency, especially in Wendell's case.

As for the guards, DJ is very likely shooting several points below his true shooting ability right now, as he's only 31% from three. So there's upside potential there if he can start shooting like he's capable of. Jeremy probably needs to dial down his usage and shot-hunting and play like more of a role-player. The great news is that if Jalen performs consistently, then there will hopefully be a trickle-down effect where Jeremy won't be forcing things as much, as Duke uses Jalen's great passing ability and court vision to distribute in the halfcourt. Jeremy strikes me as someone who's going to have lot of success cutting to the basket and getting fed by Jalen from the high post.

There are lot of ifs in my post, of course. But the point is that I *can* visualize this team's potential to be very good. The key will be how consistently our guys play to their potential. If, for example, Jalen and Wendell only play well once every three games, that's not going to be good for Duke.

[CDu]

Yeah, I'll definitely echo the comments others have made about decision-making/poise. Even Johnson, who was spectacular, was guilty (as mentioned the pass to Tape on the break and the cheap fouls, but also a pass to Baker who was cutting into traffic). Roach was guilty of poor shot selection and some sloppy misses on good shots. And the team just generally didn't seem to make good game decisions at key moments. That's the sign of a young team trying to figure things out. But we need to get less young quickly.

The good news is that Johnson was a stud. The offense needs to run through him, and we really need to work on creating opportunities for Hurt to play off Johnson (and vice versa). They can potentially be a really dynamic force together. But simply put having both of them is going to make us much more legitimate a threat offensively.

I was pleased with Moore, who really seemed to thrive playing off Johnson. Having Johnson along with the guards really allows us to minimize Moore's dribbling, which is good. And teams will have to focus much more on Johnson as well, which helps clear lanes for Moore. Hopefully Moore can build off of this, because he provides a lot of potential value if he's not a ball-stopping, turnover machine on offense.

The duo of Roach and Steward had some good and some bad. Steward continues to struggle with his shooting, which is a problem as he is supposed to be a good shooter. Roach ISN'T a good shooter, and he's showing that too much. He needs to stop shooting 3s. He can still be a weapon (in fact, perhaps a better one) without forcing 3s. I'm still bullish on those guys, but last night was not a strong night for them.

The decline of Brakefield is a bit more concerning, as it is forcing us to play Tape and Williams too much. Our two centers have just not been good, and I think we need to accept that and hope that Brakefield can rebound to somewhere between his apex and his recent play. The shooting and lack of rebounding have disappeared for him: 2 rebounds per game and 0-6 on 3s in 65 minutes over the past 4 games.

[CDu]

Yeah, I agree with CDu. The potential is pretty easy to see, imo, but the question is the consistency. Jalen put up a Coppin St-like stat line (except it was even more impressive since it came against a pretty good ACC team in Pitt), but when's the next time we will see a great performance from him? He followed up Coppin St with three poor games. If the vast majority of Jalen's remaining games this season are played at yesterday's level (not necessarily meaning he will produce that kind of stat line), then like CDu said, he's a first-team ACC player. Heck, an All-American. Matt had a poor game yesterday (for him, as he still put up a 111 offensive rating), but he's been very consistent before that and could be / should be first-team ACC. Wendell yesterday played like a high-end 3-and-D role player. If we can get him to continue playing that style of ball (one where he doesn't create/dribble much, thus limiting turnovers) and shoot confidently like he did yesterday and against BC, then he's one of the best two-way starting SFs in the league. Overall, if Jalen and Wendell play to their potential with Matt-like consistency, that's one of the best and versatile frontcourts in the country. But it's "show me" time for the consistency, especially in Wendell's case.

As for the guards, DJ is very likely shooting several points below his true shooting ability right now, as he's only 31% from three. So there's upside potential there if he can start shooting like he's capable of. Jeremy probably needs to dial down his usage and shot-hunting and play like more of a role-player. The great news is that if Jalen performs consistently, then there will hopefully be a trickle-down effect where Jeremy won't be forcing things as much, as Duke uses Jalen's great passing ability and court vision to distribute in the halfcourt. Jeremy strikes me as someone who's going to have lot of success cutting to the basket and getting fed by Jalen from the high post.

There are lot of ifs in my post, of course. But the point is that I *can* visualize this team's potential to be very good. The key will be how consistently our guys play to their potential. If, for example, Jalen and Wendell only play well once every three games, that's not going to be good for Duke.

Yeah, this summarizes it nice, Troublemaker. I know you and I are both bullish on Steward's abilities (you probably even moreso than me); he just needs to start making shots, because that opens everything else up for him. I'm also bullish on Roach's abilities, but he's got to learn time-and-place stuff (or in the case of 3pt shooting, it's probably that there isn't a time or place that he should be shooting them). I agree that his ability to attack the rim should play very well off of Johnson's passing from the perimeter, from the elbow, or even from the post. I think as Roach and Steward get more game reps with Johnson as the focal point, they may take off.

Last night was also the near ideal version of Moore: versatile defender, crafty off-ball play, minimal dribbling (keep it simple), hitting open shots. Worth noting that if we DO play more zone moving forward, his length and ranginess are a plus. I don't expect every game to be like last night for him, but if he can be a 10-15 points type of guy with minimal turnovers? Yeah, that's perfect as a 4th/5th option as long as at least one of the guards is solid.

The real key is Johnson. The game against Pitt was not a fluke. Frankly, his per-minute performances have been good to terrific all season. But at the same time, we saw glimpses of the issues that got him in trouble before he got hurt: too many ticky-tack fouls, and occasional sloppy decision-making. But in terms of talent, he's perhaps the most talented player in the conference, and if he can stay on the floor games like last night SHOULD happen often. He just makes himself such a presence when he's on the floor.

If Johnson is playing like a 1st Team guy/PoY candidate and Hurt continues to play like a first-team guy as well, it's hard to imagine the team continuing to struggle. That's even ignoring the potential nightmares that that duo could work together with their theoretically complementary skill set. And there is enough talent around those two guys to win. Whether or not they get there remains to be seen, but I think the talent is there that we COULD be good.

[scottdude8]

I didn't mention this in my front page article, but again I think it's critical to remember where this team is relative to the "typical" season. This was game 9 for these guys, and only game 5 with a full strength Jalen Johnson. In a typical year, our Game 9 likely be against some sort of mid-major competition against whom we could overcome a disjointed effort with a stellar performance by a star. Against a quality ACC opponent, Jalen's performance wasn't enough.

If this was a typical year and we just saw Jalen do what he did, combined with the effect it seemed to have on Wendell, in Game 9, I think we'd be feeling pretty good. This year is anything but typical.

Remember, we aren't the only team struggling like this. Outside of the top tier of Gonzaga and Baylor, and the second tier that is more debatable but likely includes Michigan, Iowa, and maybe Texas/Virginia/Nova, most teams are still developing and will look drastically different in March. With that in mind, more than any season I can remember this year is NOT about what seed we are come tourney time (I think the "sky is falling" crowd talking about us missing the tourney entirely are being way too pessimistic, but I acknowledge the possibility), and more about the type of team we are in March. If we end up a seven seed, but a seven seed with a fully integrated Jalen Johnson and our sophomores in Hurt and Moore having taken the step forward we all envisioned preseason, no one is going to feel confident against us outside of Gonzaga and Baylor.

We're trained as Duke fans to panic at every loss. But this year we have to view things more in terms of the development of this team, sometimes independent of the results. In the last 15 minutes last night I saw a team that took a major step forward. We need to take another one on Saturday.

[UrinalCake]

The decline of Brakefield is a bit more concerning, as it is forcing us to play Tape and Williams too much.

Relative to preseason expectation, I don’t think this is a huge concern. Most of us expected very little from Brakefield and even questioned whether he would redshirt. We did expect Williams to be in the rotation and for Tape to provide about the amount that he has.

Brakefield’s size and skill set overlaps too much with Hurt and Johnson so I’m okay with him not getting much playing time. The fact that Williams is giving us nothing is a concern (perhaps that is indirectly what you meant by your comment). If we could keep a rim protector on the floor I think that would go a long way towards helping our defense, but I think missing the preseason really stunted Williams and there’s not time for him to learn on the fly when we’re in a dogfight every game.

[FerryFor50]

Yeah, this summarizes it nice, Troublemaker. I know you and I are both bullish on Steward's abilities (you probably even moreso than me); he just needs to start making shots, because that opens everything else up for him. I'm also bullish on Roach's abilities, but he's got to learn time-and-place stuff (or in the case of 3pt shooting, it's probably that there isn't a time or place that he should be shooting them). I agree that his ability to attack the rim should play very well off of Johnson's passing from the perimeter, from the elbow, or even from the post. I think as Roach and Steward get more game reps with Johnson as the focal point, they may take off.

Last night was also the near ideal version of Moore: versatile defender, crafty off-ball play, minimal dribbling (keep it simple), hitting open shots. Worth noting that if we DO play more zone moving forward, his length and ranginess are a plus. I don't expect every game to be like last night for him, but if he can be a 10-15 points type of guy with minimal turnovers? Yeah, that's perfect as a 4th/5th option as long as at least one of the guards is solid.

The real key is Johnson. The game against Pitt was not a fluke. Frankly, his per-minute performances have been good to terrific all season. But at the same time, we saw glimpses of the issues that got him in trouble before he got hurt: too many ticky-tack fouls, and occasional sloppy decision-making. But in terms of talent, he's perhaps the most talented player in the conference, and if he can stay on the floor games like last night SHOULD happen often. He just makes himself such a presence when he's on the floor.

If Johnson is playing like a 1st Team guy/PoY candidate and Hurt continues to play like a first-team guy as well, it's hard to imagine the team continuing to struggle. That's even ignoring the potential nightmares that that duo could work together with their theoretically complementary skill set. And there is enough talent around those two guys to win. Whether or not they get there remains to be seen, but I think the talent is there that we COULD be good.

I think Johnson is one of those players whose competitive fire is a good and bad thing.

He can really positively impact the game, but he will also make dumb mistakes (like fouls) and sometimes bark at his teammates too much.

[CDu]

Relative to preseason expectation, I don’t think this is a huge concern. Most of us expected very little from Brakefield and even questioned whether he would redshirt. We did expect Williams to be in the rotation and for Tape to provide about the amount that he has.

Brakefield’s size and skill set overlaps too much with Hurt and Johnson so I’m okay with him not getting much playing time. The fact that Williams is giving us nothing is a concern (perhaps that is indirectly what you meant by your comment). If we could keep a rim protector on the floor I think that would go a long way towards helping our defense, but I think missing the preseason really stunted Williams and there’s not time for him to learn on the fly when we’re in a dogfight every game.

Yes, certainly relative to preseason Brakefield is performing well. But given that it doesn't seem like Tape and Williams are ready to contribute, Brakefield needs to play better than he has. Maybe Tape or Williams gets better with time this year and we get back to preseason rotation expectations. But as is, I feel more confident in Brakefield being useful this year than I do either Tape or Williams. I've at least seen it multiple times from him, whereas the two centers have continually looked overmatched.

As for Brakefield's overlap with Hurt and Johnson, I actually view that as a feature rather than a bug. It should allow us to play a more consistent style of play with him (and Moore) filling in for Johnson and Hurt as needed. He isn't as good a shooter as Hurt and he's far less talented than Johnson, but he can at least play a similar style of game on both ends.

[UrinalCake]

As for Brakefield's overlap with Hurt and Johnson, I actually view that as a feature rather than a bug.

I’ve used that line myself many times in my software development work. It’s not a bug, it’s a “feature”! :D

[Neals384]

What can I say that hasn't already been said? Y'all saw the same game that I saw.

THE GOOD
Jalen Johnson can flat-out beast. This should close the mouths of those who said he couldn't play well against decent competition, or that his flashes of brilliance were just a fluke. The guy is a baller. Foul trouble and the injury has hidden that fact from some people, but it's no secret anymore.

Moore looked like a solid ACC player out there and did exactly what we need him to do. His relative maturity on the court was also very welcome.

THE BAD
Team defense was not very good. How to you allow Sham-penny open looks when he's one of only two guys on their team that was hot? It happened over and over again.

Guard shooting/outside shooting in general. Horrible. We had some good looks, and also some forced shots; outcome was the same regardless.

"Big guys that don't start." Collectively, they weren't good. Offensively they don't go up strong enough. On defense their rotations are too slow.

THE UGLY
Baker. I've been a big proponent of Baker, and he played well against Virginia Tech, but holy crap he was awful last night.

Spotting the other team 8-14 points in every single game. THIS HAS GOT TO STOP! For the life of me I can't understand why they come out looking like they're not really sure which sport is being played. After spotting the other team a sizable lead, we generally play them even for the rest of the game, proving that we are just as good as the other team. Why do we want to start the game in the hole, over and over again? I just don't understand what is happening. If Coach K understood it, he would've solved it by now, so I suspect he is just as flummoxed as we are.

Since slow starts are a huge issue, perhaps we should actually start our 5 best players.

[Neals384]

I didn't mention this in my front page article, but again I think it's critical to remember where this team is relative to the "typical" season. This was game 9 for these guys, and only game 5 with a full strength Jalen Johnson. In a typical year, our Game 9 likely be against some sort of mid-major competition against whom we could overcome a disjointed effort with a stellar performance by a star. Against a quality ACC opponent, Jalen's performance wasn't enough.

If this was a typical year and we just saw Jalen do what he did, combined with the effect it seemed to have on Wendell, in Game 9, I think we'd be feeling pretty good. This year is anything but typical.

Remember, we aren't the only team struggling like this. Outside of the top tier of Gonzaga and Baylor, and the second tier that is more debatable but likely includes Michigan, Iowa, and maybe Texas/Virginia/Nova, most teams are still developing and will look drastically different in March. With that in mind, more than any season I can remember this year is NOT about what seed we are come tourney time (I think the "sky is falling" crowd talking about us missing the tourney entirely are being way too pessimistic, but I acknowledge the possibility), and more about the type of team we are in March. If we end up a seven seed, but a seven seed with a fully integrated Jalen Johnson and our sophomores in Hurt and Moore having taken the step forward we all envisioned preseason, no one is going to feel confident against us outside of Gonzaga and Baylor.

We're trained as Duke fans to panic at every loss. But this year we have to view things more in terms of the development of this team, sometimes independent of the results. In the last 15 minutes last night I saw a team that took a major step forward. We need to take another one on Saturday.

I smell a pie in my future!

[chrishoke]

Here's what we shot last night - 38.6% from the field; 28.6% from 3 pt. line; 57.9% from the free throw line.

Folks, any way you cut it, that's losing basketball.

[CameronDuke]

Duke is now 73-219 from 3 for 33.3%. Making one out of every three 3-point attempts ain’t great. This team still has time to become a better 3-point shooting team but I’ll bet it isn’t their bread and butter this season. I would like to see more on the ball pressure on defense and trying to force turnovers and get out into transition with Duke’s quick guards for easy baskets or layups. Hurt, Brakefield, and Johnson should be shooting the majority of the deep balls.

This Duke team is also just 92-138 from the free throw line for 66.7%. Making 2 out of every 3 free throws ain’t great either.

I am ok with Duke’s rebounding efforts.

The offense continues to appear disjointed at times and the flow gets broken up. I am not counting this team out yet, since some nice pieces are there. I am excited to see how the team responds at Louisville Saturday.

If Duke gets 20 ACC games in, I still think they can win 11-13 which when paired with a couple wins in the ACCT, could get them into the NCAAT.

This team hopefully will look better in February/March than it did in January.

[Sixthman]

Looking at the team from 5000 feet instead of where the games are played, I'd suggest it looks like this. We were expecting to have three lead dogs: Johnson, Hurt and Moore, with a strong defensive stopper and evolving point guard distributor. The three lead dogs have never shown up together and may not, but if you took the best game from each of them and rolled them out on the same night, we'd be in the national title discussion. While that doesn't look like a possibility now, that was kind of what we were hoping for out of the gate. In turn, the failure of Johnson and Moore -- for different reasons -- to have as of yet shown up as consistent offensive forces, required both Roach and Steward to do more scoring than expected and taken them both out of their games a little.

Imagine that we evolve to get a strong night out of two of three contemplated lead dogs every night and that this allows Roach to evolve into the best distributor he can be, for Steward to be an offensive and rebounding wild card, and Goldwire to focus as a defensive stopper. That doesn't seem like a stretch and seems like a fundamentally different team than we have seen. It's at least a reason to believe.

[DukieInBrasil]

Looking at the team from 5000 feet instead of where the games are played, I'd suggest it looks like this. We were expecting to have three lead dogs: Johnson, Hurt and Moore, with a strong defensive stopper and evolving point guard distributor. The three lead dogs have never shown up together and may not, but if you took the best game from each of them and rolled them out on the same night, we'd be in the national title discussion. While that doesn't look like a possibility now, that was kind of what we were hoping for out of the gate. In turn, the failure of Johnson and Moore -- for different reasons -- to have as of yet shown up as consistent offensive forces, required both Roach and Steward to do more scoring than expected and taken them both out of their games a little.

Imagine that we evolve to get a strong night out of two of three contemplated lead dogs every night and that this allows Roach to evolve into the best distributor he can be, for Steward to be an offensive and rebounding wild card, and Goldwire to focus as a defensive stopper. That doesn't seem like a stretch and seems like a fundamentally different team than we have seen. It's at least a reason to believe.

Your 5000ft view coincides with mine quite well. JJ's time away allowed for Roach and Steward to get more comfortable with attacking on offense instead of being passive, which is good. Now, they just need to figure out to be more comfortable in slightly different roles, for Roach, more passing & less 3s, and for Steward to hunt his shots and opportunistic scoring.

[tommy]

More Tape? Really? I think last night was sort of a "OK we're gonna give you some minutes. Let's see what you've got" kind of opportunity for Patrick, and the results were not good. He's trying out there, but I think it's pretty obvious that he is not an ACC-caliber player. He just doesn't have the athleticism, he has no springs, he can't finish inside, and I don't see him really doing much positive out there at all. He's got a big body -- maybe too big below the waist -- but what skills has he exhibited? I'm sure he's a great kid but I'm not sure what the staff saw in him to think he can contribute at this level. So I won't be surprised if his minutes are limited going forward.

Problem is Williams clearly isn't ready. His body and his game aren't developed at all. He may be a contributor in the future, but not this year. If one of them needs to be in the game to provide size -- which I think will be rare -- I'd prefer it to be Williams to give him the opportunity to develop now, as we'll need him next year.

Brakefield got everyone excited with his three point shooting earlier in the year for a few games, but that has fallen off drastically. He's a good athlete and seems comfortable out there, but as others have noted too, his defense is poor. He got beat baseline last night and tried to sort of follow his man or maybe try to recover with his back to the driving Pitt player. Huh? It was almost comically bad. He was pulled very soon thereafter, never to return. We may need him to play some minutes as a bigger guy (although I don't see him at all as a power player as some do) but if he can't play D and his shot isn't falling, then . . .

I could easily be wrong here, but I think last night could be a sign of decreasing playing time to come for Goldwire. It's possible that K is realizing that when Jordan is out there, we are essentially playing 4 on 5 on offense, and with this team we just can't do that. Yes he is really good as an on-ball defender (usually) but his skill set as a distributor and shooter really are problematic. And also maybe K wants to just have Roach and Steward play through all their issues, make their mistakes, learn, and improve, and give them the minutes to do so as a duo, rather than as a trio with JG. Or not. Just a thought.

On the positive side, obviously Jalen Johnson showed why he was so highly touted coming out of high school and why he will be coveted by the NBA. That was a lottery pick performance last night, no question about it. If we can have him playing at a high level, plus last night's Wendell Moore, and a more normal Matt Hurt performance, that is something to build on. Then it really becomes a question of the freshman guards. Can they "get it" in time, learn to make better decisions, set up teammates, and of course hit some jumpshots? Both have had some nice moments and both have frequently struggled. We have to have them playing smarter, and we have to have them making open jumpshots. DJ Steward is the starting shooting guard on a high major team, coming out of HS with a reputation as a knock down shooter. So far, he has simply not been anywhere close to that, and we need him to be. Our guards repeatedly missing wide open jumpers not only hurts us badly on the scoreboard, but it's demoralizing.

I'm hopeful that under K's tutelage, the guys are gonna "get it" and learn to play better both individually and as a team. I'm realistic though as to the overall talent level of this team, which per Duke's standards, is pretty low. Thankfully the ACC is pretty mediocre this year, so there will be lots of opportunities for an improving team to win games. We can be that improving team, but we have to start making those improvements now. Right now.

[Kfanarmy]

Coach Capel has learned a few things from Coach K:

His team consistently played harder
His team built a lead by closing out the 1st half strongly, and starting well in the 2nd half
His team made more free throws than his opponents' free throw attempts
Capel's team had better shot selection and better shooting % than his opponent

My impression for years watching Duke under Coach K is that the team was really aggressive at the start of the game, closing the first half and coming out of the locker room at the half.

It just hasn't seemed the same for the past five or so years (I'm generalizing here I know)...Is it just my perception or do others have the same? Last year, I often thought they looked cold going on to the court...as in not warmed up physically and not revved up mentally.

[flyingdutchdevil]

More Tape? Really? I think last night was sort of a "OK we're gonna give you some minutes. Let's see what you've got" kind of opportunity for Patrick, and the results were not good. He's trying out there, but I think it's pretty obvious that he is not an ACC-caliber player. He just doesn't have the athleticism, he has no springs, he can't finish inside, and I don't see him really doing much positive out there at all. He's got a big body -- maybe too big below the waist -- but what skills has he exhibited? I'm sure he's a great kid but I'm not sure what the staff saw in him to think he can contribute at this level. So I won't be surprised if his minutes are limited going forward.

Problem is Williams clearly isn't ready. His body and his game aren't developed at all. He may be a contributor in the future, but not this year. If one of them needs to be in the game to provide size -- which I think will be rare -- I'd prefer it to be Williams to give him the opportunity to develop now, as we'll need him next year.

Brakefield got everyone excited with his three point shooting earlier in the year for a few games, but that has fallen off drastically. He's a good athlete and seems comfortable out there, but as others have noted too, his defense is poor. He got beat baseline last night and tried to sort of follow his man or maybe try to recover with his back to the driving Pitt player. Huh? It was almost comically bad. He was pulled very soon thereafter, never to return. We may need him to play some minutes as a bigger guy (although I don't see him at all as a power player as some do) but if he can't play D and his shot isn't falling, then . . .

I could easily be wrong here, but I think last night could be a sign of decreasing playing time to come for Goldwire. It's possible that K is realizing that when Jordan is out there, we are essentially playing 4 on 5 on offense, and with this team we just can't do that. Yes he is really good as an on-ball defender (usually) but his skill set as a distributor and shooter really are problematic. And also maybe K wants to just have Roach and Steward play through all their issues, make their mistakes, learn, and improve, and give them the minutes to do so as a duo, rather than as a trio with JG. Or not. Just a thought.

On the positive side, obviously Jalen Johnson showed why he was so highly touted coming out of high school and why he will be coveted by the NBA. That was a lottery pick performance last night, no question about it. If we can have him playing at a high level, plus last night's Wendell Moore, and a more normal Matt Hurt performance, that is something to build on. Then it really becomes a question of the freshman guards. Can they "get it" in time, learn to make better decisions, set up teammates, and of course hit some jumpshots? Both have had some nice moments and both have frequently struggled. We have to have them playing smarter, and we have to have them making open jumpshots. DJ Steward is the starting shooting guard on a high major team, coming out of HS with a reputation as a knock down shooter. So far, he has simply not been anywhere close to that, and we need him to be. Our guards repeatedly missing wide open jumpers not only hurts us badly on the scoreboard, but it's demoralizing.

I'm hopeful that under K's tutelage, the guys are gonna "get it" and learn to play better both individually and as a team. I'm realistic though as to the overall talent level of this team, which per Duke's standards, is pretty low. Thankfully the ACC is pretty mediocre this year, so there will be lots of opportunities for an improving team to win games. We can be that improving team, but we have to start making those improvements now. Right now.

Nice post. I agree with you on a lot of things, but the sad reality is that, if your predictions/conclusions above at true, we're reduced to a 5.5-6.5 man rotation. Which probably suits Coach K just fine (and would upset a lot of fans).

I know it's only been two performances, but Jalen is a stud and an alpha dog. Couple him with Hurt and you have two star players. Moore has calmed down and playing his game: don't force mediocre mid-range shots nor dribble the ball. Roach is a nice player but he shoots too much. I want to see him drive, and drive a lot. Kick it out to Jalen who can do magic with the ball (pass, shoot, or drive). Steward is out of control, but you can see the potential. He needs a lot of work to reign in that energy.

I really like Goldwire. I hate when he has the ball on a fast break or when he has the ball with <5 seconds left on the shot clock. He needs to be an opportunistic scorer and not a key contributor to the offense. Brakefield, like the mentioned, doesn't offer much when his 3pt shot isn't falling. His D isn't good and he doesn't bang down low.

Then there are the others. Oh boy. Williams isn't ready for ACC play. He's too slow for smaller, lighter players and he gets destroyed by heavier players. The number of times his shot is off because he had to alter it last second is astounding. Tape shows why Duke doesn't aggressively go after mid-major type players; he's not an ACC-caliber player. Baker is shooting 18% from 3, and that's with good shot selection (because he's incredibly passive with the ball). He doesn't offer anything on the offensive end other than the perception of being a good shooter. To sum it up, Baker has not been good this year. And Coleman? If options A, B, and C aren't working, let's try D. What's the difference at this point?

I think there is a clear 5 with Goldwire not far behind and Brakefield as needed wing/big man depth in case of foul trouble. But yeah, let's face it. Unlike all of our expectations in the beginning of the year, this isn't a deep team.

[soflabluedevil]

I'm seeing a lot of young players developing their basketball IQ. Unfortunately, that comes at the cost of making mistakes. For example, Johnson's fifth foul was in a situation where a veteran player simply does not even think about reaching for the ball. Another is that even in a zone you do not lose track of Champagnie for one second - the guy put up a double double in the first half, so if he's not scoring he just might be going after a rebound. Yet another: after a nice steal and attacking in transition why throw a long pass to Tape? Even if he manages a clean catch, what is he going to do with the ball in that position? I could go on, but the theme is that these young guys are learning on the fly, and are paying for it. It will take time and repetitions, and the season is getting short.
This team will improve w/experience but I do not see them beating even good (not top) teams consistently. They simply lack both talent and experience to do so. Johnson is the only one not limited in some way(s). Other teams will concentrate on him and dare the rest of team to beat them. We cannot expect 20+ pts/10+ rebs per game from him in the future given how opposition will treat him. Our shooting is lacking and our defense horrible-giving up open 3s and layups by the ton while committing way too many bad fouls.

[Kedsy]

Hurt, Brakefield, and Johnson should be shooting the majority of the deep balls.

Johnson is not a shooter. His long-distance shooting numbers in high school were poor, and his form is questionable. Maybe one or two three-point-attempts per game should be his maximum if you want efficient scoring. Instead, I agree with others who think the offense should run through him so he can find cutters and open three-point shooters who'll have a higher percentage chance of hitting their shots than he would.

Obviously Hurt can shoot. So can Baker, notwithstanding his meh performance so far this season. But I don't know what to make of Brakefield's three-point shooting. His high school shooting numbers were mediocre, but his form looks pretty good. So I don't mind him taking shots but I'm not sure I want him to take so many (currently 54.3% of his shots are three-point attempts). His defense has been improving the past few games, but he still hasn't reached the level of "good." He's probably a 7th or 8th man right now.

Steward is an interesting case. He's not on your list, but he has a shooter's mentality and apparently had shooting success in high school. He should be shooting. That said, to me, he looks like maybe he's a little flummoxed by the longer distance in college (vs. high school). His form looks a little funny, like he's trying to put some extra oomph on his shots. Troublemaker has suggested he's OAD, but I strongly suspect he could follow a Luke Kennard-type path. Kennard couldn't shoot very well his freshman year, either (32.0%, not that much different from Steward's current 30.8%). But Kennard as a sophomore shot 44% from three and got drafted in the lottery. Steward could possibly do the same (maybe not the lottery, but late first round is within his reach), but unless he suddenly starts hitting everything I'll be very surprised if an NBA team is interested in him in this year's draft.

Roach is clearly not a shooter. His high school shooting stats were poor and his college shooting stats to date have been poorer. The problem is, so far he hasn't been a point guard either. His peripheral stats resemble a shooting guard (maybe a combo guard but not really) much more than a point, he doesn't display a great deal of passing vision when he has the ball, and despite his considerable speed and quickness, he doesn't seem to be able to get past his man and wreak havoc inside opposing defenses. And defensively, he's been erratic (his steals% is not terrible, but it is 9th on the team and his dRtg is an atrocious 108.1, by far the worst on the team). There's a lot of potential there for him to become a good player, but right now he's a bit of a liability. If we're only going to play two guards, I'm thinking maybe Goldwire should start ahead of him.

Finally (although having nothing to do with shooting), I'll be disappointed if Mark Williams's and Henry Coleman's minutes dwindle further. They both have turned the ball over too much and the speed of the game seems a bit much for them right now, but some of their other advanced stats seem intriguing. Letting them play through their mistakes (maybe 5 mpg each) might pay dividends down the road. Though of course that's not K's way, so I'm not holding my breath.

[CDu]

Johnson is not a shooter. His long-distance shooting numbers in high school were poor, and his form is questionable. Maybe one or two three-point-attempts per game should be his maximum if you want efficient scoring. Instead, I agree with others who think the offense should run through him so he can find cutters and open three-point shooters who'll have a higher percentage chance of hitting their shots than he would.

Obviously Hurt can shoot. So can Baker, notwithstanding his meh performance so far this season. But I don't know what to make of Brakefield's three-point shooting. His high school shooting numbers were mediocre, but his form looks pretty good. So I don't mind him taking shots but I'm not sure I want him to take so many (currently 54.3% of his shots are three-point attempts). His defense has been improving the past few games, but he still hasn't reached the level of "good." He's probably a 7th or 8th man right now.

Steward is an interesting case. He's not on your list, but he has a shooter's mentality and apparently had shooting success in high school. He should be shooting. That said, to me, he looks like maybe he's a little flummoxed by the longer distance in college (vs. high school). His form looks a little funny, like he's trying to put some extra oomph on his shots. Troublemaker has suggested he's OAD, but I strongly suspect he could follow a Luke Kennard-type path. Kennard couldn't shoot very well his freshman year, either (32.0%, not that much different from Steward's current 30.8%). But Kennard as a sophomore shot 44% from three and got drafted in the lottery. Steward could possibly do the same (maybe not the lottery, but late first round is within his reach), but unless he suddenly starts hitting everything I'll be very surprised if an NBA team is interested in him in this year's draft.

Roach is clearly not a shooter. His high school shooting stats were poor and his college shooting stats to date have been poorer. The problem is, so far he hasn't been a point guard either. His peripheral stats resemble a shooting guard (maybe a combo guard but not really) much more than a point, he doesn't display a great deal of passing vision when he has the ball, and despite his considerable speed and quickness, he doesn't seem to be able to get past his man and wreak havoc inside opposing defenses. And defensively, he's been erratic (his steals% is not terrible, but it is 9th on the team and his dRtg is an atrocious 108.1, by far the worst on the team). There's a lot of potential there for him to become a good player, but right now he's a bit of a liability. If we're only going to play two guards, I'm thinking maybe Goldwire should start ahead of him.

Finally (although having nothing to do with shooting), I'll be disappointed if Mark Williams's and Henry Coleman's minutes dwindle further. They both have turned the ball over too much and the speed of the game seems a bit much for them right now, but some of their other advanced stats seem intriguing. Letting them play through their mistakes (maybe 5 mpg each) might pay dividends down the road. Though of course that's not K's way, so I'm not holding my breath.

I agree with almost all of this. On this team, the primary shooters should be Hurt and Steward. Baker could/should be in that mix, but his play right now makes him borderline unplayable, so it is a bit moot. But if he can settle down and drift to open spots when Johnson has the ball, hopefully he can regain his touch. And as a catch-and-shoot guy if left open by teams focusing on Johnson and Hurt, Baker might become useful. That's one of the things that having a player with such gravity AND willingness to pass can do. The thing that these guys have been missing is a player who can create openings for others. For various reasons, neither Roach nor Steward are ready for that role yet. But Johnson appears to be both ready and willing. I'm excited to see how things evolve now with him back.

I think Steward's rep was more of a scorer than a pure shooter, although he was/is considered a good shooter as well. He takes DEEP 3s, which might be part of the problem. I don't know that he's a 40% type of shooter, but 37+% seems reasonable. I do like the Kennard reference there as I think he has a lot of scoring IQ like Kennard; it's just a matter of getting the shooting touch back. And while I'm bullish on Steward's talent, I tend to agree that unless he blows up in the second half he's probably not on a draft radar this year.

Roach is definitely a work in progress. I agree that he's not a pure PG. In high school, he was a lead guard type more than a passing guard. He averaged under 5 assists per game as a senior in high school, despite playing with Trevor Keels. His strengths in high school were his ability to attack the basket and his athleticism. Very much a "downhill runner" type of guard. It seems like he's still adapting to the college game. Worth noting that his ACC stats are still pretty good: 14.2 ppg, 47.3 fg%, 66.7 2pt%. The low assists (2.8 apg) and high turnovers (3.0 pg) are certainly a concern, but might get mitigated somewhat if we start using Johnson as the primary facilitator rather than relying on the guards to do it. And of course the 3pt shooting (24%) compared with the volume (5 attempts per game) needs to change. But overall, I think he's been pretty good if viewed as a combo guard rather than a PG. Hopefully he continues his growth as a player as he gets more familiar with the ACC level of play. He's already playing much better than he did in his first few games, but still has a ways to go. I'm pretty bullish on his potential, but he is also very much a work in progress.

As for Coleman and Williams, I kind of see Brakefield/Williams/Coleman as a bit of a single player proposition. I can't see us really giving those guys more than 15-20 mpg combined. Williams has looked way too slow and skinny to play at this level yet. Hopefully with time his body control, strength, and mobility make him a real weapon. But I doubt it happens this year. Coleman is a weird case. He went from presumed afterthought to preseason darling back to afterthought. In terms of strength, athleticism, and demeanor, he seems well suited for a role player role. His rebounding and steals rates are spectacular albeit in very limited minutes. His turnover rate looks too high, but it's really just 1 turnover in 12 minutes. I'd need to see more of a trend there. Williams' high turnover rate (5 in 52 minutes) has a bit more credence. But, for whatever reason, Coleman hasn't been given a longer look. Maybe now that Johnson is settling in, we could see more of Coleman? If Brakefield continues to struggle and Williams and Tape continue to not be ready, who knows?

Brakefield is the other enigma. He went from afterthought to on-court darling, but has faded back again. The skill set is a bit limited. Apparently, Coach K was concerned that he was too turnover prone, so he restricted Brakefield's use of the dribble. That effectively made him a post- and spot-up player. When the 3pt shot was falling, he shined. But now the 3pt shot has disappeared (small sample size alert). Hopefully the shooting touch comes back. Brakefield seems like the best bet to hold down the third "big" role, and being a stretch 4 would be key for him to accomplish that.

[GGLC]

I really want to see more of Coleman.

[bluenorth]

It must be quite a shock to these young men as they transition from high school to college. Forgetting the shift to living in a campus environment (which as I recall it was huge, although I was having too much fun at the time to notice), they have had to go from playing dominant roles to being unsure if and/or how much they'll play. From being coveted 5 and 4 star recruits to having their shortcomings exposed. From being McDonald's all-Americans with dreams of being OAD to becoming a project. (Note: Johnson is the obvious exception!). The task for K and his staff is to bring them along to the point that as a coach you can send a player into a game with confidence, not with your fingers crossed. This is the model that has been followed for several years now, so the staff will get it done sooner or later.

It's interesting that UNC and Kentucky are also struggling this year, although they have top recruiting classes too. It's probably partly due to Covid and the resulting delays to training. It could make for a very good NIT this year.

[Bluedog]

I really think if Roach makes that reverse layup, we win the game. Down by 1 with all the momentum, no foul-out for JJ, etc. It was a disappointing result and execution wasn't there for large stretches of the game, but I'm pleased the team showed fight and got back into it. Coulda shoulda woulda and all that I get....But goes to show you the margin for error is small and one bucket can make all the difference.

[CDu]

I really think if Roach makes that reverse layup, we win the game. Down by 1 with all the momentum, no foul-out for JJ, etc. It was a disappointing result and execution wasn't there for large stretches of the game, but I'm pleased the team showed fight and got back into it. Coulda shoulda woulda and all that I get...But goes to show you the margin for error is small and one bucket can make all the difference.

Yes, it's amazing how a result can swing so wildly on a single play. What should have been a make turned into a huge foul-out. From there, it was an uphill climb. Especially because it turned out to be a 3-point swing on top of the loss of Johnson (Champagnie got to shoot free throws as we were over the limit). So instead of being down 1 with momentum and - at that point - the best player on the floor in the game, we are down 4 with the ball and having lost our best player.

Of course, there's no guarantee that Pitt doesn't score with us down just 1 (they scored on each of their next two possessions with us down just 2). But it certainly feels like a crucial point.

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

Looking at the team from 5000 feet instead of where the games are played, I'd suggest it looks like this. We were expecting to have three lead dogs: Johnson, Hurt and Moore, with a strong defensive stopper and evolving point guard distributor. The three lead dogs have never shown up together and may not, but if you took the best game from each of them and rolled them out on the same night, we'd be in the national title discussion. While that doesn't look like a possibility now, that was kind of what we were hoping for out of the gate. In turn, the failure of Johnson and Moore -- for different reasons -- to have as of yet shown up as consistent offensive forces, required both Roach and Steward to do more scoring than expected and taken them both out of their games a little.

Imagine that we evolve to get a strong night out of two of three contemplated lead dogs every night and that this allows Roach to evolve into the best distributor he can be, for Steward to be an offensive and rebounding wild card, and Goldwire to focus as a defensive stopper. That doesn't seem like a stretch and seems like a fundamentally different team than we have seen. It's at least a reason to believe.

I think the problem is that this year's would-be one-year-wonders aren't as good as we've had in recent years. It's the risk that K decided to take when he embraced the strategy of recruiting top ranked high school talent to play at Duke for a year (maybe two years). These guys aren't experienced in playing at the college level; they haven't learned to play together as a team; they're very young. Sometimes this top talent is good enough to come together and excel as a college team; sometimes it doesn't pan out. See what's happening at KY this year; similar to what we're seeing with Duke 2020-21. But there's still time for K to get them together in Feb and March.

[jb75]

I think the problem is that this year's would-be one-year-wonders aren't as good as we've had in recent years. It's the risk that K decided to take when he embraced the strategy of recruiting top ranked high school talent to play at Duke for a year (maybe two years). These guys aren't experienced in playing at the college level; they haven't learned to play together as a team; they're very young. Sometimes this top talent is good enough to come together and excel as a college team; sometimes it doesn't pan out. See what's happening at KY this year; similar to what we're seeing with Duke 2020-21. But there's still time for K to get them together in Feb and March.

Nailed It!!!

[UrinalCake]

I think the problem is that this year's would-be one-year-wonders aren't as good as we've had in recent years.

That shouldn't be a surprise - this year's class isn't in the same ballpark as the classes of 2016, 2017 or 2018. Those years we had multiple top-10 players plus additional top-20's. Last year we had just Carey as a surefire OAD and maybe Hurt was close but we were fortunate that Stanley overperformed and getting Tre back was like landing a top-5 freshman.

This year our freshmen class is ranked by the RSCI:
(11) Johnson
(20) Roach
(24) Steward
(25) Williams
(33) Brakefield
(49) Coleman

I don't know what everyone else was expecting, but I didn't consider anyone except Johnson to be a "one year wonder." I think there's a huge dropoff outside of the top 6 or 8 guys, though I did think that Johnson belonged in that elite group. Players ranked in the 20's don't typically contribute right off the bat, and when you start two or three of them together it compounds the issue. I was hoping that having Hurt and Moore back as experienced sophomores would offset having less talented freshmen, but that hasn't panned out because Moore has struggled big time and neither has emerged as a leader.

For those who have long been clamoring to recruit a single OAD along with multiple lower-ranked players, the past two years haven't proven this to be a winning strategy. Perhaps you could say that it takes time to refill the pipeline, but Baker's lack of development would be evidence to the contrary. I do think we're setting ourselves up quite nicely to have a balanced team next season that could be elite, followed by a major rebuilding team the following season. But I'll wait to see how that plays out.

[kako]

I think the problem is that this year's would-be one-year-wonders aren't as good as we've had in recent years. It's the risk that K decided to take when he embraced the strategy of recruiting top ranked high school talent to play at Duke for a year (maybe two years). These guys aren't experienced in playing at the college level; they haven't learned to play together as a team; they're very young. Sometimes this top talent is good enough to come together and excel as a college team; sometimes it doesn't pan out. See what's happening at KY this year; similar to what we're seeing with Duke 2020-21. But there's still time for K to get them together in Feb and March.

You could be right. But also it could be COVID-related. Less practices, less games, no early tourney, etc. UK is also freshman heavy. The better teams have more upperclassmen this year.

Or a factor could also be the significant upperclassmen left this year are not at the level as previous years. Hurt is doing well, and hopefully Moore is getting better. But compare that to a few previous years after freshmen left:

2015-2016 - Allen, MP3, Jefferson, Matt Jones
2016-2017 - Allen, Matt Jones, Jefferson
2017-2018 - Allen, White, Bolden, DeLaurier
2018-2019 - O'Connell, White, Bolden, Goldwire, DeLaurier
2019-2020 - Tre Jones, O'Connell, White, Goldwire, DeLaurier, Baker
2020-2021 - Goldwire, Baker, Hurt, Moore

Of these classes, sorry to say but objectively I'd have to rank this year's upperclass near the bottom of this list. Perhaps 18'-'19 was also down there, but that year Duke had Zion, Barrett, Reddish and Tre Jones, so...

I personally can't place the root cause on any one area - COVID, the upperclassmen, the freshmen... I still think Johnson this year is the real deal. If he and Hurt can be weapons with a reliable third option scorer (Steward? Moore?), then Duke can right the ship and make it into the tourney. The more Duke plays, the more they could start to jell, particularly with Johnson healthy again, not to mention Tape.

We who follow Duke aren't used to this situation at all, but power conference at-large teams that make it in as 10-11 seeds can tend to beat the lower teams in conference and sneak a few marque victories against the upper teams. Duke isn't dead yet, especially if they can start to click in time to get a few key wins - they have their chances against Ville, UVA, Clemson, FSU and GaTech still ahead of them... not even mentioning Carolina (their games against UNC will draw a lot of viewers - so if Duke looks good beating them, it could make an impression on the committee). Sure, it's wishful thinking right now to believe they will sweep all these games. But keep beating the teams lower than them, win a few against the upper teams, stay above .500 in conference, and they will have a shot. And remember, fair or not - money talks. CBS *wants* Duke in the tournament. If Duke is close, hard to believe they will be shut out.

9F

[flyingdutchdevil]

You could be right. But also it could be COVID-related. Less practices, less games, no early tourney, etc. UK is also freshman heavy. The better teams have more upperclassmen this year.

Or a factor could also be the significant upperclassmen left this year are not at the level as previous years. Hurt is doing well, and hopefully Moore is getting better. But compare that to a few previous years after freshmen left:

2015-2016 - Allen, MP3, Jefferson, Matt Jones
2016-2017 - Allen, Matt Jones, Jefferson
2017-2018 - Allen, White, Bolden, DeLaurier
2018-2019 - O'Connell, White, Bolden, Goldwire, DeLaurier
2019-2020 - Tre Jones, O'Connell, White, Goldwire, DeLaurier, Baker
2020-2021 - Goldwire, Baker, Hurt, Moore

Of these classes, sorry to say but objectively I'd have to rank this year's upperclass near the bottom of this list. Perhaps 18'-'19 was also down there, but that year Duke had Zion, Barrett, Reddish and Tre Jones, so...

I personally can't place the root cause on any one area - COVID, the upperclassmen, the freshmen... I still think Johnson this year is the real deal. If he and Hurt can be weapons with a reliable third option scorer (Steward? Moore?), then Duke can right the ship and make it into the tourney. The more Duke plays, the more they could start to jell, particularly with Johnson healthy again, not to mention Tape.

We who follow Duke aren't used to this situation at all, but power conference at-large teams that make it in as 10-11 seeds can tend to beat the lower teams in conference and sneak a few marque victories against the upper teams. Duke isn't dead yet, especially if they can start to click in time to get a few key wins - they have their chances against Ville, UVA, Clemson, FSU and GaTech still ahead of them... not even mentioning Carolina (their games against UNC will draw a lot of viewers - so if Duke looks good beating them, it could make an impression on the committee). Sure, it's wishful thinking right now to believe they will sweep all these games. But keep beating the teams lower than them, win a few against the upper teams, stay above .500 in conference, and they will have a shot. And remember, fair or not - money talks. CBS *wants* Duke in the tournament. If Duke is close, hard to believe they will be shut out.

9F

Bingo. If Duke is a bubble team, they'll be in. Yes, it will upset lots of anti-Duke fans (screw em).

Duke is the biggest draw in college ball. The NCAA, CBS, all the advertisers, and >75% of casual fan wants them in. It just makes the tournament so much better when there is such a polarized team like Duke.

[GGLC]

Well, then hopefully we can uphold our end of the bargain and scrape together a remotely plausible slate of accomplishments come tourney time. Let's start with maintaining a winning conference record.

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

Well, then hopefully we can uphold our end of the bargain and scrape together a remotely plausible slate of accomplishments come tourney time. Let's start with maintaining a winning conference record.

Let’s start with a win at Louisville.

[sagegrouse]

Bingo. If Duke is a bubble team, they'll be in. Yes, it will upset lots of anti-Duke fans (screw em).

Duke is the biggest draw in college ball. The NCAA, CBS, all the advertisers, and >75% of casual fan wants them in. It just makes the tournament so much better when there is such a polarized team like Duke.

What is a likely "tie-breaker" is our string of 25 consecutive tournament appearances.

[jv001]

I think our freshman players are thinking too much rather than reacting and having fun playing college basketball. The lack of preseason work and postponed games has really hurt our young guys. Even Baker isn't playing offense the way he's capable of playing. He's worked on his defense but he's taken a step back on offense. Both he and DJ need to start hitting those open 3s. Roach needs to be the point guard and get open shots for our shooters.

GoDuke!

[Troublemaker]

I think our freshman players are thinking too much rather than reacting and having fun playing college basketball. The lack of preseason work and postponed games has really hurt our young guys. Even Baker isn't playing offense the way he's capable of playing. He's worked on his defense but he's taken a step back on offense. Both he and DJ need to start hitting those open 3s. Roach needs to be the point guard and get open shots for our shooters.

GoDuke!

Yeah, we have had a number of players who have been playing tight and/or have a mental block about one aspect of their game or another. Wendell was/is the biggest issue with his confidence in his shooting. He's such a smooth and confident FT shooter but was/is so hesistant and often waaay off on his threes. Hopefully he can shoot confidently the rest of the season; it would raise our ceiling a significant amount to have a 3-and-D wing.

[kshepinthehouse]

Duke is 1-8 against the spread this year. If they come out favored against Louisville bet the farm. It’s a win win. If you win the bet you get money if you lose the bet Duke wins!

[Kedsy]

if you lose the bet Duke wins!

Yeah, but you would no longer own the farm.

[jimsumner]

Yeah, but you would no longer own the farm.

:) :)

[dm9e24]

That shouldn't be a surprise - this year's class isn't in the same ballpark as the classes of 2016, 2017 or 2018. Those years we had multiple top-10 players plus additional top-20's. Last year we had just Carey as a surefire OAD and maybe Hurt was close but we were fortunate that Stanley overperformed and getting Tre back was like landing a top-5 freshman.

This year our freshmen class is ranked by the RSCI:
(11) Johnson
(20) Roach
(24) Steward
(25) Williams
(33) Brakefield
(49) Coleman

I don't know what everyone else was expecting, but I didn't consider anyone except Johnson to be a "one year wonder." I think there's a huge dropoff outside of the top 6 or 8 guys, though I did think that Johnson belonged in that elite group. Players ranked in the 20's don't typically contribute right off the bat, and when you start two or three of them together it compounds the issue. I was hoping that having Hurt and Moore back as experienced sophomores would offset having less talented freshmen, but that hasn't panned out because Moore has struggled big time and neither has emerged as a leader.

For those who have long been clamoring to recruit a single OAD along with multiple lower-ranked players, the past two years haven't proven this to be a winning strategy. Perhaps you could say that it takes time to refill the pipeline, but Baker's lack of development would be evidence to the contrary. I do think we're setting ourselves up quite nicely to have a balanced team next season that could be elite, followed by a major rebuilding team the following season. But I'll wait to see how that plays out.

I guess it is what you define as a winning strategy. I thought last years team won quite a bit and were poised to have a nice run in the NCAA tourney. Most would have expected for Stanley to be on this year's team out of last year's freshman class. He certainly wasn't recruited as a sure fire OAD. This year's team also hasn't had the luxury of summer or the early season menu of OOC games. Johnson missed 4 of the games they did play. Take Carey out of 4 of last year's first 5 conference games.
Having experience has worked pretty well for a lot of teams nationally the last 5-6 years, including our 2015 NC's. You do need to develop that 2nd tier recruit. Check out this years top 10 and see how many teams are dominated by OAD's. Or the last 4 national champions.

[DukieTiger]

For those who have long been clamoring to recruit a single OAD along with multiple lower-ranked players, the past two years haven't proven this to be a winning strategy. Perhaps you could say that it takes time to refill the pipeline, but Baker's lack of development would be evidence to the contrary. I do think we're setting ourselves up quite nicely to have a balanced team next season that could be elite, followed by a major rebuilding team the following season. But I'll wait to see how that plays out.

Depends on your perspective - I actually consider this equally to be an example of the downside of going all-in on OADs. If you ever slip up in recruiting, or the incoming classes aren’t as good, etc you can have a relatively extreme down hear. And if you have multiple years where you’re not getting top 10 guys, it can take years to build up that core of non-OADs to be elite.

[UrinalCake]

Depends on your perspective - I actually consider this equally to be an example of the downside of going all-in on OADs. If you ever slip up in recruiting, or the incoming classes aren’t as good, etc you can have a relatively extreme down [year]. And if you have multiple years where you’re not getting top 10 guys, it can take years to build up that core of non-OADs to be elite.

But if your plan is to recruit a single OAD surrounded by a bunch of lower-ranked players, and you don't get that OAD, then you're up the creek. At least if you're pursuing lots of guys each year then you can handle missing out on one and in many cases bring in someone else in that same class.

[CDu]

But if your plan is to recruit a single OAD surrounded by a bunch of lower-ranked players, and you don't get that OAD, then you're up the creek. At least if you're pursuing lots of guys each year then you can handle missing out on one and in many cases bring in someone else in that same class.

On top of that, the other guys aren't guaranteed to stay anyway. Take 2015 and 2016 for example. We recruited one sure-fire one and done (Okafor) and a couple of multi-year guys (Jones, Winslow, Allen) in 2015. But we won the title (no complaints), and as such Jones and Winslow went pro. In 2016, we brought in one one and done (Ingram) and a few multi-year guys (Thornton, Kennard, Jeter). But Thornton transferred after the season, Jeter midway through the next season, and Kennard (thought to be a 3-4 year guy) left after 2.

Both of those seasons fit the "single one-and-done and a bunch of longer-term guys" concept in theory. And neither worked out that way. We were shorthanded in 2016, and again in 2017 (missing a PG again).