2020-21 minutes thread - or is this redundant

[MarkD83]

Now that JD has published Part III of the preview of Duke's team is it time...…

[Bluedog]

I did. Joey Baker is 10.9, when adjusted for DNP's. AOC is 12.2. I used the ESPN numbers, as opposed to the stats accessed off of GoDuke.com, which are riddled with confusing entries. I see the ESPN data total to 2,558 points, whereas, the sum of Duke scores is 2,488. The GoDuke data leaves out the stats for the Duke-FSU game, which Duke won 70-65. (I said the data was confusing).

Joey played in 28 out of 31 games. Alex played in 29 of 31 per ESPN. Both are above 10.0 when the adjustments are made. Perhaps you have other data.

Right, our numbers are the same. But you used the threshold of 12 mpg, not 10 mpg. 10.9 < 12...

"I don't want to single out anyone above, but we had 10 players average 12 or more minutes per game in 2019-2020."

In any event, we're splitting hairs and it doesn't change the narrative. Perhaps it's possible K has changed a bit with regard to playing depth...and perhaps not. We'll find out!

[sagegrouse]

Right, our numbers are the same. But you used the threshold of 12 mpg, not 10 mpg. 10.9 < 12...

"I don't want to single out anyone above, but we had 10 players average 12 or more minutes per game in 2019-2020."

In any event, we're splitting hairs and it doesn't change the narrative. Perhaps it's possible K has changed a bit with regard to playing depth...and perhaps not. We'll find out!

It was either a typo or a minor brain spasm. In a normal season, I think players getting 350-400 minutes or more are getting enough floor time to learn and improve. Last year was only 31 games, so 300 or so minutes is pretty good. I thought in 2020 Coach K made a reasonable use of his entire roster. Yep -- at the end, there were a couple of games where the playing rotation tightened up. I don't think it's a plan -- it's how K chooses to manage important games where he is intensely focused.

I think the approach to building roster has changed at Duke. With the higher number of one-and-done players and an increased tendency of players to transfer -- there is very little warning about roster vacancies. I have said in the past that the coaches get four months warning of a vacancy, but it takes an 18-month lead time to recruit a new freshman. The answer: have a greater stock of players and don't be afraid to have players that take a couple of years to mature. The prime example is Goldwire, who has become a very good college hoopster and even -- believe it or not -- a decent shooter.

[Kedsy]

With all due respect (and I do have an immense amount of respect for you) we see this same story play out every year. So-and-so player is “too talented not to play.” And every year we see K cut his rotation down to 7 or 8. Last year was the exception to the rule, but as others have said by the end of the season if we’re talking about minutes in close games against competitive opponents we were still only playing 7 or 8 guys.

I could absolutely see a world in which Coleman, Brakefield, Tapé, Williams, Goldwire, Hurt, or even one of Roach or Steward gets buried on the bench.

Was I not clear in my second paragraph? I agree that in close games against competitive opponents, we'll probably only be playing 8 guys. And (though I didn't say this in my earlier post), I'd be less surprised if that was 7 guys than I would if it were 9. And 10 would be a complete shock.

What I meant in my first paragraph is it's hard to figure who will be left out. Tapé is a senior who was recruited for a reason and looks pretty strong offensively; Williams is a true 7-footer who looks like he could be a defensive force with good coordination around the offensive basket; Brakefield was very impressive and unexpectedly polished in the scrimmage video; Goldwire is a senior who has improved every year; Baker is a great shooter whose all-around game appears to have improved; Hurt, Roach, and Steward will all probably end up playing in the NBA after they finish at Duke. The idea that two or three of those guys will hardly play come the end of the season is a difficult one, even if it's likely to happen.

[JasonEvans]

Question for the minutes masses...

How often do guys see their minutes drop by more than maybe a minute or two from year-to-year. I have not done the research, but I think it is fairly rare. I'm not talking about a guy going from 33 down to 30 minutes per game, that can happen without really indicating that the player's role on the team has change. For example, Grayson fell from 36.6mpg as a soph to 29.6mpg as a junior, but it did not mean Grayson's role had meaningfully changed as a junior. Jack White fell from 20 mpg as a juinor to 15 mpg as a senior, but, again, I don't feel like Jack's role was appreciably different on those two teams.

I guess I am asking, how often does someone go from being a rotation player to a non-rotation player when they get older? I feel like that is really rare.

So, with that in mind, I think we can say pretty definitively that Jordan Goldwire (24.1 mpg last season), Wendell Moore (24.0mpg), and Matthew Hurt (20.5mpg) are all going to be pretty significant players this coming season. Similarly, it would be quite surprising if Joey Baker (12.1mpg) failed to have a significant rotation role. So, that's 4 guys where it would be a shock if they were not significant rotation pieces.

As others have mentioned, the very experienced Patrick Tape likely had long conversations with the coaching staff about his role before coming to Duke. Unlike a freshman, who's performance against D1 players can be tougher to project, Tape is more of a finished product. It would be shocking to me if he was brought in as K's first ever grad transfer and K did not have a good idea of what kind of role Tape would play. Put another way, I will be shocked if Tape plays less than 15mpg. That's 5.

Jalen Johnson, by virtue of his recruiting ranking, would appear to be a lock to be in the rotation. That's 6.

So, the question is really the other guys. Will K only find room for 2 of them (if we go on recruiting rankings, that means Roach and Steward)? I suspect we will see 9 guys getting double-digit minutes and there will be games where we play all 11 scholarship players (unless someone decides to redshirt, which I think is unlikely). I could see something where Brakefield, Coleman, and Williams are each given chances and -- depending on matchups -- one plays more one game while another gets more run in a different game.

-Jason "I truly think there is a chance K starts all 5 experienced players at some point... how anti-Duke would that be?!?!" Evans

[Kedsy]

Question for the minutes masses...

How often do guys see their minutes drop by more than maybe a minute or two from year-to-year. I have not done the research, but I think it is fairly rare. I'm not talking about a guy going from 33 down to 30 minutes per game, that can happen without really indicating that the player's role on the team has change. For example, Grayson fell from 36.6mpg as a soph to 29.6mpg as a junior, but it did not mean Grayson's role had meaningfully changed as a junior. Jack White fell from 20 mpg as a juinor to 15 mpg as a senior, but, again, I don't feel like Jack's role was appreciably different on those two teams.

More than a minute or two? Here's a quick (non-comprehensive) list:

Jack White 20.5 (2019) --> 15.6 (2020 -- and I do think his role changed; his last 9 games of 2020, Jack averaged ~6.5 mpg)
Javin DeLaurier 16.3 (2019) --> 13.2 (2019)
Rasheed Sulaimon 29.2 (2013) --> 24.9 (2014) --> 19.2 (2015)
Andre Dawkins 22.4 (2012) --> 12.9 (2014)
Greg Paulus 32.4 (2007) --> 27.7 (2008) --> 15.6 (2009)
Dave McClure 21.7 (2007) --> 7.2 (2008)
Nick Horvath 12.3 (2003) --> 5.9 (2004)
Taymon Domzalski 20.4 (1996) --> 8.6 (1997) --> 7.2 (1998)
Ricky Price 21.3 (1997) --> 4.6 (1998)
Greg Newton 29.6 (1996) --> 20.8 (1997)
John Smith 22.5 (1987) --> 15.7 (1988)

The reason most guys don't have drastic reductions in minutes from year to year is they're still one of the top guys at their position on the team. If that stops being true, their minutes drop.

[Billy Dat]

I think I am getting unreasonably excited about Mathew Hurt's potential this year based on the recent media availability and the spate of media attention that has followed.

In short...
-He's put on 20 pounds
-He's focused on being a better perimeter defender and rebounder
-He is in attack mode on offense and ready to exploit mismatches in the post

Here's Scheyer from a piece in the Athletic:

“He’s made an incredibly big jump, even from last year,” Scheyer says. “He has been our leading scorer. He’s scoring the ball from all over, shooting the ball with really great efficiency. He’s going in the post — I mean, he’s showing everything. And our thing for Matthew is just to take that jump mentally, where you believe you’re as good as anybody, because he is. And he’s been showing it. He’s been terrific.”

That fires me up, especially because his comments about Wendell Moore were along the lines of, "He knows what he is capable of, now he just has to trust the work and show it on the court"...which isn't making me feel as confident about him making a leap this year.

Using Hurt as a small ball 5 could really put a lot of shooting on the floor.

[Kedsy]

Using Hurt as a small ball 5 could really put a lot of shooting on the floor.

I agree with most of this, and think this is where we'll end up at the end of close games, but Matthew needs to shore up his interior defense to pull it off. You (and they) have only mentioned his perimeter defense. But if he can play good defense anywhere, he'll be a big part of this team.

That said, assuming Roach, Moore, and Johnson are going to be on the floor a lot, and either Tapé or Williams are going to be out there for a decent amount, we're still not going to have "a lot of shooting on the floor." The only true shooters we have are Hurt, Baker, and Steward, and if all three are out there at the same time (will probably happen some but not all that much) it would give us a decent amount of shooting, but I still wouldn't call it a lot. And when just two of them (and sometimes just one) are out there, we'll be a bit short on shooting and have to rely on all three of those guys to consistently shoot high percentages.

[Billy Dat]

I agree with most of this, and think this is where we'll end up at the end of close games, but Matthew needs to shore up his interior defense to pull it off. You (and they) have only mentioned his perimeter defense. But if he can play good defense anywhere, he'll be a big part of this team.

That said, assuming Roach, Moore, and Johnson are going to be on the floor a lot, and either Tapé or Williams are going to be out there for a decent amount, we're still not going to have "a lot of shooting on the floor." The only true shooters we have are Hurt, Baker, and Steward, and if all three are out there at the same time (will probably happen some but not all that much) it would give us a decent amount of shooting, but I still wouldn't call it a lot. And when just two of them (and sometimes just one) are out there, we'll be a bit short on shooting and have to rely on all three of those guys to consistently shoot high percentages.

All I have to go on as I think about our rotations is whichever media coverage seems to be coming out of the various media availabilities over the past few weeks. I know it is probably a fool's errand to base anything on that chatter, but I have to gobble whatever morsels come out.

Props to Jason and the DBR Podcast gang because they've been on these media availabilities (as has Jim Sumner, so we are well covered here in DBR land) and the recent clips from Coach Scheyer gave me the following impressions (along with the stuff Brendan Marks is writing for the Athletic):

-No one is talking about Jalen Johnson in a way that reflects the coverage usually given to our top recruit. The most I have heard is Scheyer saying something along the lines of, "He's trying to figure out where he fits, especially in the half court, but his passing is next level." Umm...that doesn't inspire a ton of confidence.

-Wendell Moore - in the Scheyer media availability, he said something along the lines of, "Wendell has to trust the work he's put in and make it happen on the court." Umm...that's not making me anticipate a breakout, either.

Aside from the universal raves about Matthew Hurt (which does make me feel really good), the guy Scheyer pegged as being a huge surprise is Henry Coleman, probably our lowest ranked recruit.

When you factor in the historically weak non-conference schedule (which could be because of COVID caution and because of the 20 game conference schedule), I am guessing that the team is a real work in progress with minutes up for grabs all over the place.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I agree with most of this, and think this is where we'll end up at the end of close games, but Matthew needs to shore up his interior defense to pull it off. You (and they) have only mentioned his perimeter defense. But if he can play good defense anywhere, he'll be a big part of this team.

That said, assuming Roach, Moore, and Johnson are going to be on the floor a lot, and either Tapé or Williams are going to be out there for a decent amount, we're still not going to have "a lot of shooting on the floor." The only true shooters we have are Hurt, Baker, and Steward, and if all three are out there at the same time (will probably happen some but not all that much) it would give us a decent amount of shooting, but I still wouldn't call it a lot. And when just two of them (and sometimes just one) are out there, we'll be a bit short on shooting and have to rely on all three of those guys to consistently shoot high percentages.

What makes you think Roach is getting on the floor a lot? I get he's our second best recruit, but he's ranked #20 in RSCI, which isn't great. I think three factors may impact his playing time (outside of his ranking): 1) even though the ACL tear was more than a year ago, it's still a risk. Hopefully he plays like Dennis Smith at NCSU. 2) he's not a good shooter, and having Roach, Moore, and Johnson out there isn't great for spacing. 3) there are other options for playing the point who may provide other attributes (Johnson, who is great at everything except shooting. DJ, who is a great shooter but not a pure PG and lacks any meaningful weight. Goldwire, who is a senior leader and excellent defender but arguably the worst shooter on the team. Moore, who played a lot of point forward last year).

I'm not suggesting Roach will not play a lot of minutes. I'm just not confident he'll play anywhere near the minutes as Moore, Johnson, and Hurt, the trio who I believe will lead the team in minutes. As a matter of fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Roach played 15 min a game or 35 min a game; he's the one recruit I don't have a good handle on from a playing minutes standpoint.

[Skitzle]

Aside from the universal raves about Matthew Hurt (which does make me feel really good), the guy Scheyer pegged as being a huge surprise is Henry Coleman, probably our lowest ranked recruit.


Excited for the season, always excited to see Freshman, but please remember that the coaches can use public comments to build up/motivate players. Coleman being a surprise could mean they thought he was going to be a non-rotation player and now he has a shot to make the rotation. It could also mean he'll be the top player on the team. :shrug:

[DukieInBrasil]

What makes you think Roach is getting on the floor a lot? I get he's our second best recruit, but he's ranked #20 in RSCI, which isn't great. I think three factors may impact his playing time (outside of his ranking): 1) even though the ACL tear was more than a year ago, it's still a risk. Hopefully he plays like Dennis Smith at NCSU. 2) he's not a good shooter, and having Roach, Moore, and Johnson out there isn't great for spacing. 3) there are other options for playing the point who may provide other attributes (Johnson, who is great at everything except shooting. DJ, who is a great shooter but not a pure PG and lacks any meaningful weight. Goldwire, who is a senior leader and excellent defender but arguably the worst shooter on the team. Moore, who played a lot of point forward last year).

I'm not suggesting Roach will not play a lot of minutes. I'm just not confident he'll play anywhere near the minutes as Moore, Johnson, and Hurt, the trio who I believe will lead the team in minutes. As a matter of fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Roach played 15 min a game or 35 min a game; he's the one recruit I don't have a good handle on from a playing minutes standpoint.

I think J-Gold has earned the right to say he is an above-average shooter, or an above-break-even shooter. He shot 35% from 3 and almost 50% from the floor last year. He was terrible his 1st 2 years and even started his Jr year poorly, but he really hit his stride there and ended the season being a decent offensive option. Wendell Moore shot 21% on 3s although a much lower volume, so i think he has a pretty firm grip on the "worst shooter" label.

[JasonEvans]

If I had to guess right now, I think things are probably looking like this at the moment...


Hurt - 32+ mpg
Moore - 27-30 mpg
Goldwire - 24-27 mpg
Baker - 20-23 mpg
Johnson - 18-21 mpg
Roach 18-21 mpg
Steward - 17-20 mpg
Williams - 15-18 mpg
Tape - 11-14 mpg
Brakefield - 9-12 mpg
Coleman - 6-9 mpg

-Jason "lots of time until the season starts and guys could elevate their role, for sure... but I do think we will play 11 a lot, especially early in the season" Evans

[flyingdutchdevil]

If I had to guess right now, I think things are probably looking like this at the moment...


Hurt - 32+ mpg
Moore - 27-30 mpg
Goldwire - 24-27 mpg
Baker - 20-23 mpg
Johnson - 18-21 mpg
Roach 18-21 mpg
Steward - 17-20 mpg
Williams - 15-18 mpg
Tape - 11-14 mpg
Brakefield - 9-12 mpg
Coleman - 6-9 mpg

-Jason "lots of time until the season starts and guys could elevate their role, for sure... but I do think we will play 11 a lot, especially early in the season" Evans

Goldwire + Baker > Johnson is a helluva prediction. I know Johnson's ranking collapsed during his senior year, but I believe that's more of a reflection of his lack of playing through bouncing from one school to the next moreso than his talent. I think his kid is a real top 5 talent.

[jimsumner]

Goldwire + Baker > Johnson is a helluva prediction. I know Johnson's ranking collapsed during his senior year, but I believe that's more of a reflection of his lack of playing through bouncing from one school to the next moreso than his talent. I think his kid is a real top 5 talent.

Agreed. I'd be gob-smacked if Johnson isn't in the top three in minutes played, along with Hurt and Moore.

[dukelifer]

Excited for the season, always excited to see Freshman, but please remember that the coaches can use public comments to build up/motivate players. Coleman being a surprise could mean they thought he was going to be a non-rotation player and now he has a shot to make the rotation. It could also mean he'll be the top player on the team. :shrug:

Coleman is probably a very hard worker AND is very strong/physical- that will get you a lot of love from the coaching staff.

[Kedsy]

If I had to guess right now, I think things are probably looking like this at the moment...


Hurt - 32+ mpg
Moore - 27-30 mpg
Goldwire - 24-27 mpg
Baker - 20-23 mpg
Johnson - 18-21 mpg
Roach 18-21 mpg
Steward - 17-20 mpg
Williams - 15-18 mpg
Tape - 11-14 mpg
Brakefield - 9-12 mpg
Coleman - 6-9 mpg

-Jason "lots of time until the season starts and guys could elevate their role, for sure... but I do think we will play 11 a lot, especially early in the season" Evans

Johnson getting so few minutes is a bold prediction. I'll make one equally bold: if your minutes distribution is accurate, Duke will end the season outside the top 10, and probably outside the top 15.

[53n206]

Johnson getting so few minutes is a bold prediction. I'll make one equally bold: if your minutes distribution is accurate, Duke will end the season outside the top 10, and probably outside the top 15.

Explain please

[Kedsy]

Explain please

All right, I'll answer but I'm doing it under protest, because I don't really like to say things that could be construed as badmouthing the Duke team or its players.

The top four guys on Jason's minute chart are all basically one-dimensional players. And the guys who should be our superstar, PG, sharpshooter, and best athletes are all relegated to minutes in the teens (meaning they haven't lived up to billing). Plus, not to pick on Jordan Goldwire, who has improved immensely over his career and now looks like a valuable glue guy and true ACC player, but he's just not a guy who you want with the third-most minutes on a top 10 team. Finally, if on a Coach K team we're really playing 10 guys double-figure minutes, with an 11th player close to double-figures, it means too few of our players stepped up to the level you need to be a top 10 team. And you're not going to make up for those deficiencies by having great shooters (only two good shooters among the top 5 minutes guys), or a great, dynamic PG (no clear PG on that team), or an incredible lockdown defense (not with Hurt and Baker playing so many minutes).

Or, if you want to look at it another way, our top 3 minutes guys last year were Tre Jones, Cassius Stanley, and Vernon Carey. Compare that to Hurt, Moore, and Goldwire. And when the season ended last season, Duke was ranked #11.

[JasonEvans]

If I had to guess right now, I think things are probably looking like this at the moment...


Hurt - 32+ mpg
Moore - 27-30 mpg
Goldwire - 24-27 mpg
Baker - 20-23 mpg
Johnson - 18-21 mpg
Roach 18-21 mpg
Steward - 17-20 mpg
Williams - 15-18 mpg
Tape - 11-14 mpg
Brakefield - 9-12 mpg
Coleman - 6-9 mpg

-Jason "lots of time until the season starts and guys could elevate their role, for sure... but I do think we will play 11 a lot, especially early in the season" Evans

So, here is how I would defend some of the controversial stuff in my predictions:

Hurt -- He has clearly been the best player in practice. Matt is the highest rated recruit on the team from any class and is a rare top ten recruit who returned for his soph season. By all accounts, he is just torching the nets in practice on a daily basis (not just Scheyer saying this, DJ Steward told me that Hurt was the best player in practice too). He's going to lead the team in scoring and playing mid-30s minutes should not be controversial for him.

Goldwire - Jordan is a senior who averaged 24+ minutes per game last year. Expecting his minutes to increase by a few should not be controversial.

Moore - Wendell also averaged 24 mins per game a year ago. A year of growth and confidence should also allow him to play more.

Johnson - I am not ragging on the kid but it is telling to me that we have barely seen him do anything in the videos from practice so far and then Scheyer basically said, "he's still trying to figure out what he is good at so he can build on that" when I was chatting with him a few days ago. No, Scheyer did not say it in those words, but it is not hard to read between the lines. Yes, JJ is great on the break and is an excellent passer, but if he was one of the best offensive or defensive players on the team, I am sure Scheyer would have found a way to mention that rather than talking about him "finding his base."

The rest just sorta filled in themselves.


Finally, if on a Coach K team we're really playing 10 guys double-figure minutes, with an 11th player close to double-figures, it means too few of our players stepped up to the level you need to be a top 10 team.

I know Coach K does not use his bench the way other coaches do, but I would merely point out that FSU played 11 guys 9+ minutes per game a year ago and it did not keep them from being a top 10 team and a somewhat trendy Final Four pick (if we had been able to play a NCAA tournament).

-Jason "I suspect that as the season moves along, some players will step up and others will fall back... my minute distribution was what I expect RIGHT NOW. Things could easily change" Evans

[jimsumner]

So, here is how I would defend some of the controversial stuff in my predictions:

Hurt -- He has clearly been the best player in practice. Matt is the highest rated recruit on the team from any class and is a rare top ten recruit who returned for his soph season. By all accounts, he is just torching the nets in practice on a daily basis (not just Scheyer saying this, DJ Steward told me that Hurt was the best player in practice too).



Also expecting a big season from Hurt. But using RSCI Hurt was the no. 12 recruit in the 2019 prep class. Johnson was the no. 11 recruit in the 2020 class.

I really didn't see the level of uncertainty in Scheyer's remarks that you did. Johnson is skilled and versatile and is still trying to figure out the best ways to maximize those virtues.

[JasonEvans]

The top four guys on Jason's minute chart are all basically one-dimensional players. And the guys who should be our superstar, PG, sharpshooter, and best athletes are all relegated to minutes in the teens (meaning they haven't lived up to billing).

One more thing to mention regarding Hurt and Moore being the team leaders in minutes played (something I feel pretty solid about right now). Here are the top 25 Duke recruits who have come back for their soph season since everyone started turning pro ASAP in the mid 2010s.

Tre Jones, Bolden, Jeter, Kennard, and Allen.

Bolden and Jeter struggled as freshmen and that continued as sophs. Jeter averaged less than 8 mpg as a freshman and Bolden averaged only 6.5 mpg and did not play in many competitive games. Obviously, that was not the case with Hurt (20mpg) and Moore (24 mpg).

So, lets look at what happened to the other top 25 recruits who came back for their soph season after playing a meaningful role as a freshman.

Grayson Allen became a 21 ppg scorer, All-ACC First team, and a Wooden Award finalist.
Luke Kennard became a 19 ppg scorer, All-ACC First team, and a Wooden Award finalist.
Tre Jones became a 16 ppg scorer, All-ACC First team, and a Wooden Award finalist.

It is clear that 5-star recruits who are not quite good enough to leave as a freshman often make a huge leap as sophs. We have seen it here at Duke again and again and again in recent years. It is not at all of a stretch to think that one or both of Hurt and Moore will take a tremendous step forward this season and put himself in the conversation for major national and conference awards.

The Matt Hurt and Wendell Moore of 2019-20 were not capable of being the top players on a top ten team... I think projecting them to do that as sophs is not at all outrageous.

-Jason "Duke blue colored glasses... that's how I see my world ;) " Evans

[Kedsy]

Goldwire - Jordan is a senior who averaged 24+ minutes per game last year. Expecting his minutes to increase by a few should not be controversial.

And yet, it is. Earlier in the thread you suggested Coach K's players' minutes rarely drop more than a minute or two from year to year. I offered you more than 10 examples, and I'm sure there are more.
But the biggest reason why your expectation is controversial is because you appear to expect Goldwire's minutes to come at the expense of Johnson, Roach, and Steward. Like I said, that's bold.

But sure, your minutes predictions may come true. If they do, I believe Duke won't be nearly as good a team as most people around here expect.


I know Coach K does not use his bench the way other coaches do, but I would merely point out that FSU played 11 guys 9+ minutes per game a year ago and it did not keep them from being a top 10 team and a somewhat trendy Final Four pick (if we had been able to play a NCAA tournament).

I said "on a Coach K team." K has talked for years about players separating themselves above the rest, and that appears to be a big reason why his rotations are so short and get shorter as the season goes on. This year, there's a very truncated pre-ACC-season, which is when the lower guys in the rotation typically get the bulk of their minutes. So if we have 10 or 11 guys with that many minutes for the whole season, it will mean K didn't see that separation this year, which again will mean the team won't be as good as most of us hope.

[whereinthehellami]

Based on the early reports and the COVID-19 affects on this season, I'm curious about a lineup of:

Goldwire - Solid, veteran. Defense first but now capable enough on offense.
Steward - Natural scorer, willing defender.
Moore - obvious choice, vet, possible star.
Hurt - obvious choice, vet, possible star.
Tape - maturity and seasoning might give him the edge to quickly fill role in the paint.

[Phredd3]

With the talk about Hurt becoming a possible star, have there been any comments from Those In The Know about his defense, specifically? He could always fill up the basket. His main problem was that he was a pretty severe defensive liability. I remember team explicitly forcing switches until they could isolate him. Has that problem been solved, at least partially?

[budwom]

With the talk about Hurt becoming a possible star, have there been any comments from Those In The Know about his defense, specifically? He could always fill up the basket. His main problem was that he was a pretty severe defensive liability. I remember team explicitly forcing switches until they could isolate him. Has that problem been solved, at least partially?

Yeah, I'm not getting too emotionally involved in this season until it's clearer that there will actually be a season. Having said that, I see some potential problems on the defensive end, with two of our most prominent returnees (Baker and Hurt) not being especially fleet of foot.

[jv001]

Yeah, I'm not getting too emotionally involved in this season until it's clearer that there will actually be a season. Having said that, I see some potential problems on the defensive end, with two of our most prominent returnees (Baker and Hurt) not being especially fleet of foot.

Is it too early to say ZONE? :cool:

GoDuke!

[Billy Dat]

With the talk about Hurt becoming a possible star, have there been any comments from Those In The Know about his defense, specifically? He could always fill up the basket. His main problem was that he was a pretty severe defensive liability. I remember team explicitly forcing switches until they could isolate him. Has that problem been solved, at least partially?

This was from the Athletic's piece after Hurt's media availability two weeks ago, "He knows, for example, his defense didn’t cut it. Against larger, stronger opponents, Hurt was outmuscled in the post. Against smaller, quick ones, he didn’t have the lateral foot speed to keep up. Not an easy realization to make, but a necessary one if you want to get better. Hurt did. Still does.
“I just tried to take the weaknesses last year,” he said, “and make them strengths in the offseason.”

That's what I have seen on the subject.

We can now add yesterday's Jeremy Roach media availability to the mix as we consider line-up and minutes possibilities. Based on Jim Sumner's write it, it doesn't sound like there is currently a lot of gap between Goldwire and Roach. One has to assume that Roach has more talent, based on his ranking, but Goldwire has the experience, a significant amount when you consider the important minutes he's logged. Neither is a great shooter, although I feel like Goldwire got a lot better knocking down 3s when they left him open and also was a better finisher than the prior terror he used to exhibit when he drove to the hoop. They seem to have the same strengths - defense and floor generalship. Maybe they can sometimes be let loose as a defensive force the way Jones and Goldwire were paired, but Tre had a few inches of both of them. If Roach is going to earn time, he's going to have to go through Goldwire which won't be done without a major fight. I think he'll have to prove equal defense and to be a much better option on offense to get the minutes.

[flyingdutchdevil]

This was from the Athletic's piece after Hurt's media availability two weeks ago, "He knows, for example, his defense didn’t cut it. Against larger, stronger opponents, Hurt was outmuscled in the post. Against smaller, quick ones, he didn’t have the lateral foot speed to keep up. Not an easy realization to make, but a necessary one if you want to get better. Hurt did. Still does.
“I just tried to take the weaknesses last year,” he said, “and make them strengths in the offseason.”

That's what I have seen on the subject.

We can now add yesterday's Jeremy Roach media availability to the mix as we consider line-up and minutes possibilities. Based on Jim Sumner's write it, it doesn't sound like there is currently a lot of gap between Goldwire and Roach. One has to assume that Roach has more talent, based on his ranking, but Goldwire has the experience, a significant amount when you consider the important minutes he's logged. Neither is a great shooter, although I feel like Goldwire got a lot better knocking down 3s when they left him open and also was a better finisher than the prior terror he used to exhibit when he drove to the hoop. They seem to have the same strengths - defense and floor generalship. Maybe they can sometimes be let loose as a defensive force the way Jones and Goldwire were paired, but Tre had a few inches of both of them. If Roach is going to earn time, he's going to have to go through Goldwire which won't be done without a major fight. I think he'll have to prove equal defense and to be a much better option on offense to get the minutes.

This isn't that surprising. Goldwire is a vocal leader and, more importantly, he's excellent at defense (he and Moore are by far our best defenders. I'm not sure anyone is even close to those two). But Roach is significantly more talented. And this team will, unfortunately, be limited with Goldwire taking a lot of minutes. We need Roach to take that top spot.

I'm nervous about a) Roach's knee and b) Roach's shot. The shot is tough to fix, but he if comes out with a great knee and shows complete confidence in it, we'll be a massive asset. My biggest fear is Roach AND Goldwire play a lot together (like Tre and Goldwire yesterday); this means that known shooters aren't likely to play a lot. Ideally, only Roach or Goldwire play with a mix of Moore, Hurt, Baker, Steward, and 1-2 bigs.

[MChambers]

Yeah, I'm not getting too emotionally involved in this season until it's clearer that there will actually be a season. Having said that, I see some potential problems on the defensive end, with two of our most prominent returnees (Baker and Hurt) not being especially fleet of foot.

It does seem that in recent years many Duke teams have had this issue, with the best offensive players being among the weakest defensive players.

[Monmouth77]

This was from the Athletic's piece after Hurt's media availability two weeks ago, "He knows, for example, his defense didn’t cut it. Against larger, stronger opponents, Hurt was outmuscled in the post. Against smaller, quick ones, he didn’t have the lateral foot speed to keep up. Not an easy realization to make, but a necessary one if you want to get better. Hurt did. Still does.
“I just tried to take the weaknesses last year,” he said, “and make them strengths in the offseason.”

That's what I have seen on the subject.

We can now add yesterday's Jeremy Roach media availability to the mix as we consider line-up and minutes possibilities. Based on Jim Sumner's write it, it doesn't sound like there is currently a lot of gap between Goldwire and Roach. One has to assume that Roach has more talent, based on his ranking, but Goldwire has the experience, a significant amount when you consider the important minutes he's logged. Neither is a great shooter, although I feel like Goldwire got a lot better knocking down 3s when they left him open and also was a better finisher than the prior terror he used to exhibit when he drove to the hoop. They seem to have the same strengths - defense and floor generalship. Maybe they can sometimes be let loose as a defensive force the way Jones and Goldwire were paired, but Tre had a few inches of both of them. If Roach is going to earn time, he's going to have to go through Goldwire which won't be done without a major fight. I think he'll have to prove equal defense and to be a much better option on offense to get the minutes.

Based on recruiting evaluations and what you can see on tape, Roach has elite end-to-end speed, elite finishing skills at the rim, and much better passing and ballhandling skills than Goldwire. If he can play defense at the ACC level, I expect that he'll earn the lion's share of minutes at point, and the best version of this Duke team is going to have Roach on the floor together with multiple shooters (Steward or Baker, and Hurt) and guys who can attack and finish in transition (Moore and Johnson). No doubt Goldwire will get minutes to make stops, set the tone, settle the team down, etc. But my expectation is that if Goldwire is the lead guard in January, this team will not be as good as we all usually hope for.

[Billy Dat]

From Jim Sumner's DBR recap of today K presser:

“Matt Hurt has been terrific. He’s 20 pounds heavier, confident, he doesn’t look like he should be as quick as he is but he is. In the last two weeks Wendell [Moore] has really taken another huge step forward.”

And the point guards. “Goldwire has been outstanding. A kid that has really come on, especially this week, is Jeremy Roach.”

“Mark Williams is something we’ve never really had. He’s 7-1 with a 7-5 wingspan.”

I am happy to see this news about Wendell, especially after Scheyer's lack of major endorsement last week. Per our earlier chatter, also nice to hear Roach may be closing that gap with Goldwire.

[flyingdutchdevil]

From Jim Sumner's DBR recap of today K presser:

“Matt Hurt has been terrific. He’s 20 pounds heavier, confident, he doesn’t look like he should be as quick as he is but he is. In the last two weeks Wendell [Moore] has really taken another huge step forward.”

And the point guards. “Goldwire has been outstanding. A kid that has really come on, especially this week, is Jeremy Roach.”

“Mark Williams is something we’ve never really had. He’s 7-1 with a 7-5 wingspan.”

I am happy to see this news about Wendell, especially after Scheyer's lack of major endorsement last week. Per our earlier chatter, also nice to hear Roach may be closing that gap with Goldwire.

Bolden was 6'11" with a 7'4" wingspan. I believe he and Brand have the longest wingspan in Duke history.

Looks like Mark Williams now joins them.

[Billy Dat]

Here's the full K transcript provided by GoDuke.com, lots of really great quotes about Nolan Smith.

https://goduke.com/news/2020/10/28/mens-basketball-mike-krzyzewski-press-conference-quotes.aspx

Again, no Jalen Johnson quotes. Maybe they are waiting to spring him on the country, like a FIBA coach holding back his best until it matters.

[dukelifer]

Here's the full K transcript provided by GoDuke.com, lots of really great quotes about Nolan Smith.

https://goduke.com/news/2020/10/28/mens-basketball-mike-krzyzewski-press-conference-quotes.aspx

Again, no Jalen Johnson quotes. Maybe they are waiting to spring him on the country, like a FIBA coach holding back his best until it matters.

I think that is pretty telling. It suggests to me that he is not getting something. I was convinced that UNC’s Little was going to be a Freshman Star and he was average at best and fairly unimpressive. That is not to say the current crop of Duke Freshman are not going to be good- but this could be a challenging year as none may be ready for the ACC wars. I think these guys will take the good part of a season to show their ability.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I think that is pretty telling. It suggests to me that he is not getting something. I was convinced that UNC’s Little was going to be a Freshman Star and he was average at best and fairly unimpressive. That is not to say the current crop of Duke Freshman are not going to be good- but this could be a challenging year as none may be ready for the ACC wars. I think these guys will take the good part of a season to show their ability.

Could also be motivational. Coach K is a master at these kind of things.

[Fish80]

Hurt has improved so much they are making a movie featuring his locker. It’s called ..,,

The Hurt Locker 😄

[sagegrouse]

Could also be motivational. Coach K is a master at these kind of things.

When I read his quotes on Hurt and Moore, I thought "He wants Hurt to, in fact, be quicker" and "He wants Wendell to play like the best player on the court." But then, I am probably too cynical. Not everything is "coach speak."

[jimsumner]

Here's the full K transcript provided by GoDuke.com, lots of really great quotes about Nolan Smith.

https://goduke.com/news/2020/10/28/mens-basketball-mike-krzyzewski-press-conference-quotes.aspx

Again, no Jalen Johnson quotes. Maybe they are waiting to spring him on the country, like a FIBA coach holding back his best until it matters.

For the record, these are selected quotes. Nowhere near the whole enchilada.

Somebody asked Scheyer about Johnson and Scheyer talked about Johnson.

Nobody asked K about Johnson and he didn't talk about him.

Only two questions were actually asked about this year's team.

[arnie]

For the record, these are selected quotes. Nowhere near the whole enchilada.

Somebody asked Scheyer about Johnson and Scheyer talked about Johnson.

Nobody asked K about Johnson and he didn't talk about him.

Only two questions were actually asked about this year's team.

Glad to hear that clarification. Was beginning to think Jalen would redshirt this year and stay 5 years.

[rsvman]

Glad to hear that clarification. Was beginning to think Jalen would redshirt this year and stay 5 years.

And then burn that redshirt for a couple of minutes of lackluster play at Syracuse.




Too soon?

[dukelifer]

For the record, these are selected quotes. Nowhere near the whole enchilada.

Somebody asked Scheyer about Johnson and Scheyer talked about Johnson.

Nobody asked K about Johnson and he didn't talk about him.

Only two questions were actually asked about this year's team.

Scheyer's comments a few days ago

“Jalen, there’s no question he’s got ability. He has talent,” Scheyer said. “Jalen’s just figuring out, because he can do so many things—he’s not like exactly a four or a three or a five. I think his game is just figuring out, ‘What’s my base? What are my go-to’s?’ He’s refining that. He’s working on it, working on it every day, particularly in half court. That’s something for him to work on. He’s going to be a guy that can play everywhere for us, really, but we just need to help him find out, ‘What’s your base?’ and we can go from here. He’s been fun to work with. He’s done a really great job. His passing—if you’re Joey (Baker), DJ (Steward) or whoever, you like being on his team, because he’s going to find you.”

Seems like the kid is still figuring it out but there are glimpses. I don't expect that he will be RJ Barrett or Jayson Tatum. Maybe a bit below Cam Reddish. Still he will be a match up problem.

[Troublemaker]

I think that is pretty telling. It suggests to me that he is not getting something. I was convinced that UNC’s Little was going to be a Freshman Star and he was average at best and fairly unimpressive. That is not to say the current crop of Duke Freshman are not going to be good- but this could be a challenging year as none may be ready for the ACC wars. I think these guys will take the good part of a season to show their ability.

That's almost never Duke's progression under Coach K, though. We're likely going to look awesome in November and December even despite being so inexperienced, and then we'll see what happens when ACC play starts.

As for Jalen, going by the various quotes from teammates and coaches, he sounds a lot like what I expected in the spring. He's going to be a terror in transition but in the halfcourt, he's a work-in-progress since he can't shoot, which makes him an uncomfortable fit alongside Wendell, who's going to play a lot, and a center if we opt to play a center a lot.

[JasonEvans]

For the record, these are selected quotes. Nowhere near the whole enchilada.

Somebody asked Scheyer about Johnson and Scheyer talked about Johnson.

Nobody asked K about Johnson and he didn't talk about him.

Only two questions were actually asked about this year's team.

In case ya can't tell, Jim and I were sorta a little bit frustrated at some of the questions asked in today's K newser... not exactly lots of good stuff for the folks who are following the team on a daily basis.

[dukelifer]

That's almost never Duke's progression under Coach K, though. We're likely going to look awesome in November and December even despite being so inexperienced, and then we'll see what happens when ACC play starts.

As for Jalen, going by the various quotes from teammates and coaches, he sounds a lot like what I expected in the spring. He's going to be a terror in transition but in the halfcourt, he's a work-in-progress since he can't shoot, which makes him an uncomfortable fit alongside Wendell, who's going to play a lot, and a center if we opt to play a center a lot.

Yes- I was talking about ACC play. But shooting matters and Duke needs more of it.

[Troublemaker]

But shooting matters and Duke needs more of it.

Oh, absolutely. I hope Matthew, DJ, and Joey are on the court together a lot.

[dukelifer]

Oh, absolutely. I hope Matthew, DJ, and Joey are on the court together a lot.

Shooting matters and D matters. Sadly, hard to find them in the same bodies.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Shooting matters and D matters. Sadly, hard to find them in the same bodies.

Not on this team, that's for sure. Maybe Hurt, DJ, and/or Joey surprise us. Not counting on it, but hoping.

I'm looking forward to seeing a line-up of Goldwire, DJ, Moore, Hurt, and Jalen. I feel like it's a strong combination between defense, offense, shooting, and leadership. Also, I have high hopes for Jalen as a small-ball 5. He's got the athleticism and the toughness to guard the 5 in certain situations.

[budwom]

Shooting matters and D matters. Sadly, hard to find them in the same bodies.

yeah, that's been my take for quite a while...Baker and Hurt can shoot, but who(m) do they defend? Defensive quickness could be challenging.

[Troublemaker]

It does seem that in recent years many Duke teams have had this issue, with the best offensive players being among the weakest defensive players.


Shooting matters and D matters. Sadly, hard to find them in the same bodies.

Sure, that's the lament of pretty much every basketball team and their fans, though. We're always wishing we could combine two players into one.

[sagegrouse]

yeah, that's been my take for quite a while...Baker and Hurt can shoot, but who(m) do they defend? Defensive quickness could be challenging.


Sure, that's the lament of pretty much every basketball team and their fans, though. We're always wishing we could combine two players into one.

This is college hoops, not the NBA. How many college teams have scoring threats at all five positions? Hurt will do fine; Baker will do more than OK, given his feistiness.

[Phredd3]

This is college hoops, not the NBA. How many college teams have scoring threats at all five positions? Hurt will do fine; Baker will do more than OK, given his feistiness.

Elite college teams are getting better and better at forcing switches until they get the match-up they want, and then running clear outs to exploit them. I wish it were as simple as assigning a defensive liability to an offensively ineffective player, but last year showed that didn't always work out so well, especially for these two guys. I'm more hoping that both have gotten significantly better in the off-season, and the post above about Hurt recognizing and working on his defense is the most encouraging thing I've heard about it so far.

[Avenues]

Someone mentioned zone upthread. I could see this team causing problems in an old-school 2-3 anchored by Williams with two smalls upfront and with Hurt/Baker and Moore/Johnson on the sides.

On offense, I hope they are working on some pick & roll/pop sets, there are a number of combos on this team that could be really good.

[jv001]

Someone mentioned zone upthread. I could see this team causing problems in an old-school 2-3 anchored by Williams with two smalls upfront and with Hurt/Baker and Moore/Johnson on the sides.

On offense, I hope they are working on some pick & roll/pop sets, there are a number of combos on this team that could be really good.

A sporkz for your first post. I mentioned zone up thread but was half kidding. Some of us DBR folks have begged for Coach K to use the zone for some of our defenseless teams. And he's gone that direction on a few occasions and it worked. If I'm not mistaken Coach Capel talked K into using it once. Even if the team uses zone, we need the right players to play that kind of defense. In other words, I'll believe it when I see it(zone) for more than a couple of trips down the court.

GoDuke!

[Troublemaker]

This is college hoops, not the NBA. How many college teams have scoring threats at all five positions? Hurt will do fine; Baker will do more than OK, given his feistiness.

Even NBA teams don't typically put 5 scoring threats on the floor.


Elite college teams are getting better and better at forcing switches until they get the match-up they want, and then running clear outs to exploit them. I wish it were as simple as assigning a defensive liability to an offensively ineffective player, but last year showed that didn't always work out so well, especially for these two guys. I'm more hoping that both have gotten significantly better in the off-season, and the post above about Hurt recognizing and working on his defense is the most encouraging thing I've heard about it so far.

If there's rim protection, I'm not that worried about switching into a bad matchup. But *is* there going to be rim protection? The comments from players and coaches on Mark Williams have been promising so far. Side note: typically I'm more concerned about opposing guards beating our big men off the dribble after voluntary or involuntary switches.

[Billy Dat]

This write-up of last night's inter squad scrimmage does little to clarify some of our earlier theories...

http://bluedevilnation.net/2020/11/duke-hoops-holds-scrimmage/

Not one mention of Hurt, Roach the leading scorer, Tape’ prominence...mystery abounds.

[Kedsy]

This write-up of last night's inter squad scrimmage does little to clarify some of our earlier theories...

http://bluedevilnation.net/2020/11/duke-hoops-holds-scrimmage/

Not one mention of Hurt, Roach the leading scorer, Tape’ prominence...mystery abounds.

My question after reading the writeup (and seeing the old scrimmage video from weeks ago): is Steward going to be more of a PG than Roach?

[arnie]

This write-up of last night's inter squad scrimmage does little to clarify some of our earlier theories...

http://bluedevilnation.net/2020/11/duke-hoops-holds-scrimmage/

Not one mention of Hurt, Roach the leading scorer, Tapé prominence...mystery abounds.

Bizarre omission, unless Hurt was hurt.

[jv001]

My question after reading the writeup (and seeing the old scrimmage video from weeks ago): is Steward going to be more of a PG than Roach?

And how many minutes they get together? It seems that both shot the ball well and assisted as well. Like Billy, I wonder how Hurt played. Baker, Coleman, Tape, Johnson and Wendell mentioned but nothing on Matt.

GoDuke!

[MChambers]

Bizarre omission, unless Hurt was hurt.

He's always Hurt, right?

[sagegrouse]

This write-up of last night's inter squad scrimmage does little to clarify some of our earlier theories...

http://bluedevilnation.net/2020/11/duke-hoops-holds-scrimmage/

Not one mention of Hurt, Roach the leading scorer, Tapé prominence...mystery abounds.


My question after reading the writeup (and seeing the old scrimmage video from weeks ago): is Steward going to be more of a PG than Roach?


Bizarre omission, unless Hurt was hurt.

Here's the annotated write-up:


Roach's 22 points over the three periods combined were the most of any player, and his five assists tied with Steward and Goldwire for the scrimmage lead. Roach shot 6-of-9 from the field and hit all eight of his free throw attempts.

Steward and Goldwire had five assists each.

Coleman and Tapé led the way on the glass with 10 rebounds each while also contributing offensively, as Coleman scored 17 points and Tapé added 14.

Sophomore Wendell Moore Jr., finished with 16 total points and went 7-of-9 from the charity stripe, while...

[Jalen] Johnson shot 7-of-11 from the floor for 17 points.

Junior Joey Baker [15 points] totaled five points in each of the three periods and finished the night 6-of-12 from the field and 3-of-6 from long range.

The two squads combined to shoot 36-of-50 (.720) from the free throw line for the scrimmage. After getting more accustomed to the surroundings, the teams shot a combined 31-of-75 (.413) from the field over the final two periods.

Eight players were mentioned. Before we consign Hurt to the end of the bench, maybe we should wait for next Friday's scrimmage.

[dcar1985]

Footage from the Saturday scrimmage

https://youtu.be/x1Jq2H5fK3A

[DukieInBrasil]

Footage from the Saturday scrimmage

https://youtu.be/x1Jq2H5fK3A

do you know the name of the player who played without a jersey? Even Savarino got a lot PT, or at least camera time.
Saw lots of Coleman and Williams, not a whole lot of Brakefiled.
Starting to get that jones for college hoops...

[CDu]

Footage from the Saturday scrimmage

https://youtu.be/x1Jq2H5fK3A

Thanks for posting this link!

My thoughts on viewing, for what little a highlight video is worth for analysis:
1. Mark Williams is REALLY tall
2. It looked like Roach and Goldwire were the primary guys running the offense for each side
3. Not a lot of defense in these scrimmages
4. Coleman looks like a stout young man
5. Hurt still looks skinny

No real analysis to take away as it was just a highlight video and a lot of the video included guys like Savarino and (I think) a manager on the court.

But definitely getting excited about bball coming.

[luvdahops]

Thanks for posting this link!

My thoughts on viewing, for what little a highlight video is worth for analysis:
1. Mark Williams is REALLY tall
2. It looked like Roach and Goldwire were the primary guys running the offense for each side
3. Not a lot of defense in these scrimmages
4. Coleman looks like a stout young man
5. Hurt still looks skinny

No real analysis to take away as it was just a highlight video and a lot of the video included guys like Savarino and (I think) a manager on the court.

But definitely getting excited about bball coming.

Agree on the bolded point above, but I thought DJ also showed a pretty slick handle and good court vision. Roach's shooting looked better than advertised, and it was nice to see Baker scoring off the bounce a few times, too.

[Troublemaker]

My question after reading the writeup (and seeing the old scrimmage video from weeks ago): is Steward going to be more of a PG than Roach?

While DJ's point skills were definitely underrated by almost everyone in the spring (not by me, though, haha), he's going to have a tough time playing more than Roach and JGold at a listed 163 pounds (https://goduke.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster). I know that the official roster weights and heights aren't the Word of God or anything, but typically if they're wrong, they're wrong in the direction of flattering the player.

In the spring, I thought DJ would start but I'm now tempering those expectations a bit. I just didn't know that he'd be a buck sixty.

[Troublemaker]

Footage from the Saturday scrimmage

https://youtu.be/x1Jq2H5fK3A

Too lazy to look up the timestamp, but Jalen had a beautiful rebound-and-then-touch-pass-in-one-motion to Tape for a dunk in that highlight reel. If the coaches have been lukewarm in praise for Jalen, the one thing they've really raved about though is his passing.

[LasVegas]

Footage from the Saturday scrimmage

https://youtu.be/x1Jq2H5fK3A

That was horribly filmed. Way too zoomed in on the action to see anything.

[JasonEvans]

We podded on the footage: https://cms.megaphone.fm/channel/duke-basketball-report?selected=VMP1578575713

Really impressed with Roach and loved seeing him drain some threes. He only missed 3 shots the entire scrimmage so it isn't like he took 8 threes to hit those two.
The speed they are playing at was striking. This team is clearly going to push the ball up the floor in a big way.
I dunno how much he plays, but I can't help but notice that Henry Coleman is always making an impact out there.

Also, I may be wrong but I think the unnumbered player who was not wearing a jersey late in the video was Jeremy Roach playing for a different team than he played for earlier.

[CDu]

Also, I may be wrong but I think the unnumbered player who was not wearing a jersey late in the video was Jeremy Roach playing for a different team than he played for earlier.

Pretty sure the unnumbered player was NOT Jeremy Roach. Different skin tone, different body type, shorter, different hairstyle. It might have been a fill-in for Roach though if Roach had gotten banged up for example.

[JasonEvans]

Pretty sure the unnumbered player was NOT Jeremy Roach. Different skin tone, different body type, different hairstyle.

Other than that...

Sorry, I was just spitballing.

[CDu]

Other than that...

Sorry, I was just spitballing.

Pretty sure it's one of the team managers getting some run at the end of the scrimmage.

[luvdahops]

While DJ's point skills were definitely underrated by almost everyone in the spring (not by me, though, haha), he's going to have a tough time playing more than Roach and JGold at a listed 163 pounds (https://goduke.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster). I know that the official roster weights and heights aren't the Word of God or anything, but typically if they're wrong, they're wrong in the direction of flattering the player.

In the spring, I thought DJ would start but I'm now tempering those expectations a bit. I just didn't know that he'd be a buck sixty.

Not sure if that will be any sort of disqualifier, especially if the flip side is quickness that no one else on the squad appears to possess. It looked to me that Roach and JGold were on the same team at least half the time, which suggests that DJ was running the point for the other side. Either way, I suspect that we will see any two from among Roach, JGold and DJ on the floor together a lot.

[CDu]

Not sure if that will be any sort of disqualifier, especially if the flip side is quickness that no one else on the squad appears to possess. It looked to me that Roach and JGold were on the same team at least half the time, which suggests that DJ was running the point for the other side. Either way, I suspect that we will see any two from among Roach, JGold and DJ on the floor together a lot.

Yeah, I was just typing something similar. From that video, it feels like we'll see a lot of 2-"PG" lineups, which would mean a lot of Roach/Goldwire/Steward in some combination. That would push Moore to the 3, which feels right anyway (he doesn't shoot well enough to be a college 2, and given his size/strength/toughness he can easily handle the 3/4 spots in college). That would leave the battle for PT at the 4/5 between Johnson/Hurt/Tape/Williams/Coleman/Brakefield, with only 3 or 4 of those guys likely to play big minutes just by virtue of limited available minutes to go around.

[DukieTiger]

While DJ's point skills were definitely underrated by almost everyone in the spring (not by me, though, haha), he's going to have a tough time playing more than Roach and JGold at a listed 163 pounds (https://goduke.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster). I know that the official roster weights and heights aren't the Word of God or anything, but typically if they're wrong, they're wrong in the direction of flattering the player.

In the spring, I thought DJ would start but I'm now tempering those expectations a bit. I just didn't know that he'd be a buck sixty.

Agreed that the weight is a bit of a concern and probably wise to temper expectations.

I will say though, DJ looks taller and longer than I expected. While the weight might limit his freshman upside - the height and length (if my perception is accurate) is a good sign for his long-term upside.

Back to the weight (and implicitly, strength) questions... One of the greatest strengths I read in scouting reports on DJS is his remarkable touch, which helps him finish around the basket. I'm anticipating he won't flash that strength this year, that this will be a challenge for him transitioning to a higher level of bball and he'll mostly contribute value as a spot up shooter and above average passer. I'm guessing that makes him a 2 year (at least) player. But, if he does finish in traffic reasonably well in spite of the lack of strength, I could see his NBA stock remaining relatively high due to his shooting upside.

[Troublemaker]

Not sure if that will be any sort of disqualifier, especially if the flip side is quickness that no one else on the squad appears to possess.

I'm not saying it's a disqualifier at all. I still think DJ will play a lot, but I would guess he plays less than the more stout JGold and Roach at this point. In the spring, on my little notepad file where I play around with lineups, I had DJ starting and playing 32 mpg. I've dialed that down to 20 mpg now. But it's early. Maybe the next time I see him play, I'm so impressed I dial it back up again.


Not sure if that will be any sort of disqualifier, especially if the flip side is quickness that no one else on the squad appears to possess.

I think Roach is probably quicker. But DJ's three-ball threat is going to put him in advantageous positions for penetration. In the video, he was able to get by Wendell because Wendell was crowding him far beyond the 3-pt line, hands up, ready to contest a shot.

[CDu]

I'm not saying it's a disqualifier at all. I still think DJ will play a lot, but I would guess he plays less than the more stout JGold and Roach at this point. In the spring, on my little notepad file where I play around with lineups, I had DJ starting and playing 32 mpg. I've dialed that down to 20 mpg now. But it's early. Maybe the next time I see him play, I'm so impressed I dial it back up again.

I think Roach is probably quicker. But DJ's three-ball threat is going to put him in advantageous positions for penetration. In the video, he was able to get by Wendell because Wendell was crowding him far beyond the 3-pt line, hands up, ready to contest a shot.

Yeah, I don't know yet how exactly I feel about each of the 3 guards' playing time will go, except that I expect each to play a lot. In the spring, I figured Roach and Steward would play the most of the 3, with Goldwire still playing significant minutes and perhaps even starting with Steward playing more but off the bench. But if Goldwire's shooting touch is improved (and he was hitting a variety of interesting shots in this game, which suggests that maybe he's progressing) that could make a difference. He shot 35% from 3 last year on very low volume; if he improves upon that, he becomes a legitimate threat to play starter minutes due to his defensive skills.

Either way, I feel like having 3 very capable ballhandlers is a good place to be. Especially as Roach and Steward each seem quite capable of creating off the dribble. Goldwire less so of course. But if he does show improvement on his 3pt shot, that would make him more of a threat off the bounce.

When you combine that with Johnson's playmaking ability and mismatch potential and Hurt's floor spacing potential, it's going to be an interesting team to watch on offense this year. There appear to be potentially way more shot creators than last year, when it was really just Tre Jones who had to create for everyone because 75% of the team couldn't dribble and one of the ones who could dribble was just way too turnover prone (Moore).

[Billy Dat]

From the Steve Wiseman Charlotte Observer article linked on the DBR front page
https://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/article247085217.html

He says the initial starters will probably be the small ball line-up of Goldwire, Roach, Hurt, Johnson and Moore. There is so much buzz around Coleman that he seems destined for minutes. Nate James also called out Tape as someone who seems to have accepted his defend, screen, rebound role as a big.

Per CDu's comments about expanded playmaking options, it will be interesting to see how the scoring gets divided among those starters. Goldwire's shot has really improved, and he was a much better finisher in the lane last year, but the baseline was so low. Roach looks like he can shoot on a limited sample. We know Hurt can shoot but I'll be interested to see if he can become more of a scorer. Johnson seems, by what I read, like a demon on the break but more of a playmaker in the half court. Wendell is a driver, we'll see if he's expanded his offensive repertoire.

Like Troublemaker, I have a feeling about Steward. The kid just feels like someone who is going to get buckets, no matter his build. There has also been very little chatter about Baker, who I'd like to see on the court with all of these playmakers.

Obviously, there will be minutes for guys who can produce on both ends, it'll be fun to find out who they are....I hope.

[CDu]

From the Steve Wiseman Charlotte Observer article linked on the DBR front page
https://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/article247085217.html

He says the initial starters will probably be the small ball line-up of Goldwire, Roach, Hurt, Johnson and Moore. There is so much buzz around Coleman that he seems destined for minutes. Nate James also called out Tape as someone who seems to have accepted his defend, screen, rebound role as a big.

Per CDu's comments about expanded playmaking options, it will be interesting to see how the scoring gets divided among those starters. Goldwire's shot has really improved, and he was a much better finisher in the lane last year, but the baseline was so low. Roach looks like he can shoot on a limited sample. We know Hurt can shoot but I'll be interested to see if he can become more of a scorer. Johnson seems, by what I read, like a demon on the break but more of a playmaker in the half court. Wendell is a driver, we'll see if he's expanded his offensive repertoire.

Like Troublemaker, I have a feeling about Steward. The kid just feels like someone who is going to get buckets, no matter his build. There has also been very little chatter about Baker, who I'd like to see on the court with all of these playmakers.

Obviously, there will be minutes for guys who can produce on both ends, it'll be fun to find out who they are...I hope.

Yeah, I do like the potential of the Johnson/Hurt combo at the 4/5 spots. They could be such a mismatch for opposing teams' bigs. Each can handle and play away from the basket, which is going to make teams uncomfortable. Additionally, their ability to spread the court (Hurt with his shooting, Johnson with his playmaking) will open lanes for Roach and Moore and Steward and (maybe) Goldwire to attack off the dribble. It is interesting that Coleman seems to be getting more chatter than Williams and Baker. He very much fits the grinder mold that Coach K likes, and certainly appears to have the physicality to play inside. Sounds like Tape is ahead of Williams, which shouldn't be too surprising given the age/experience difference.

[luvdahops]

Yeah, I do like the potential of the Johnson/Hurt combo at the 4/5 spots. They could be such a mismatch for opposing teams' bigs. Each can handle and play away from the basket, which is going to make teams uncomfortable. Additionally, their ability to spread the court (Hurt with his shooting, Johnson with his playmaking) will open lanes for Roach and Moore and Steward and (maybe) Goldwire to attack off the dribble. It is interesting that Coleman seems to be getting more chatter than Williams and Baker. He very much fits the grinder mold that Coach K likes, and certainly appears to have the physicality to play inside. Sounds like Tape is ahead of Williams, which shouldn't be too surprising given the age/experience difference.

I still have questions about Coleman's athleticism, but he seems to - at a minimum - have a strong body, great nose for the ball, nice touch around the basket, and to run the floor very well.

[CDu]

I still have questions about Coleman's athleticism, but he seems to - at a minimum - have a strong body, great nose for the ball, nice touch around the basket, and to run the floor very well.

Yeah, I don't see him as an athletic style of player. But at the 4/5 in college, you can get away with that with strength/toughness/tenacity. Which Coleman seems to have.

I don't expect a huge role or anything for him, but I could see a role nonetheless.

[flyingdutchdevil]

From the Steve Wiseman Charlotte Observer article linked on the DBR front page
https://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/article247085217.html

He says the initial starters will probably be the small ball line-up of Goldwire, Roach, Hurt, Johnson and Moore. There is so much buzz around Coleman that he seems destined for minutes. Nate James also called out Tape as someone who seems to have accepted his defend, screen, rebound role as a big.

Per CDu's comments about expanded playmaking options, it will be interesting to see how the scoring gets divided among those starters. Goldwire's shot has really improved, and he was a much better finisher in the lane last year, but the baseline was so low. Roach looks like he can shoot on a limited sample. We know Hurt can shoot but I'll be interested to see if he can become more of a scorer. Johnson seems, by what I read, like a demon on the break but more of a playmaker in the half court. Wendell is a driver, we'll see if he's expanded his offensive repertoire.

Like Troublemaker, I have a feeling about Steward. The kid just feels like someone who is going to get buckets, no matter his build. There has also been very little chatter about Baker, who I'd like to see on the court with all of these playmakers.

Obviously, there will be minutes for guys who can produce on both ends, it'll be fun to find out who they are...I hope.

This feels like a very Coach K starting line-up: multiple ball handlers (including multiple PGs), a small ball 5, upperclassmen leadership, highest rated freshman starting.

What's interesting is the plethora of players who can play the 5: Johnson, Tape, Coleman, Williams, Brakefield, etc. There are a lot of options. This line-up has also convinced me that Johnson is going to paly a lot of minutes as he's going to slide over the 4 a lot. 32+ minutes isn't out of the question.

[JasonEvans]

Yeah, I don't see him as an athletic style of player. But at the 4/5 in college, you can get away with that with strength/toughness/tenacity. Which Coleman seems to have.

I don't expect a huge role or anything for him, but I could see a role nonetheless.

Ummm, I am currently on a media availability with Wendell Moore and... well... lets just say that he just said something about Coleman's athleticism that will leave your jaw on the floor. I guarantee we will play it on the podcast this weekend.

[Truth&Justise]

Footage from the Saturday scrimmage

https://youtu.be/x1Jq2H5fK3A


From the Steve Wiseman Charlotte Observer article linked on the DBR front page
https://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/article247085217.html

He says the initial starters will probably be the small ball line-up of Goldwire, Roach, Hurt, Johnson and Moore.

To me, the biggest moment of the entire video was the three-second clip at the 4:34 mark. In semi-transition, Wendell Moore gets a screen on the wing, sees his defender goes under, and without hesitation he rises for a three. Swish. If Moore's starting and playing big minutes, as we expect, then his ability to shoot the 3 will go a long way to determining this team's ceiling.

As a high school senior, Moore shot 80% from the FT line and 36% from 3. That three-point percentage had risen each of his four years in high school, from 27% on low volume as a freshman to 31%, 32%, and finally 36%.

Last year as a college freshman, he maintained that stellar 80.6% from the FT line, but shot a ghastly 21.1% from three. Yikes. If he can turn the corner to being somewhere in the range of 32-37% from three, then it really opens up options for the team.

I'm not saying Moore will be a sharpshooter, but being good enough that teams can't ignore you goes a long way. I look at it like Justise Winslow's three point shooting--not a main weapon the team relied on, but something that helped turn a good team into a great team.

[Billy Dat]

As a high school senior, Moore shot 80% from the FT line and 36% from 3. That three-point percentage had risen each of his four years in high school, from 27% on low volume as a freshman to 31%, 32%, and finally 36%.

Last year as a college freshman, he maintained that stellar 80.6% from the FT line, but shot a ghastly 21.1% from three. Yikes. If he can turn the corner to being somewhere in the range of 32-37% from three, then it really opens up options for the team.

I'm not saying Moore will be a sharpshooter, but being good enough that teams can't ignore you goes a long way. I look at it like Justise Winslow's three point shooting--not a main weapon the team relied on, but something that helped turn a good team into a great team.

It has been discussed on DBR and elsewhere that that college FT shooting is a better predictor of how a player will shoot from 3 point land in the NBA than their college 3pt %. So, hopefully some extension of that theory will result in Wendell being a good 3 point shooter this year, enough that teams can't sag off and we can maintain space for those drive and kicks.

[JasonEvans]

I look at it like Justise Winslow's three point shooting--not a main weapon the team relied on, but something that helped turn a good team into a great team.

Justise shot 41.8% from three his lone year at Duke while averaging just under 3 3FGA per game. That is like the 3rd highest 3FG% rate at Duke over the past half decade (among players who made at least 1 3FG/game).

I expect this to be Duke's best outside shooting team since 2015 with Baker, Hurt, Steward, and perhaps Moore and Goldwire able to hit 35%+ of their threes on a reasonable volume of shots.

Duke team #FG% by season:
2010 - .385
2011 - .374
2012 - .371
2013 - .399
2014 - .395
2015 - .387
2016 - .385
2017 - .378
2018 - .372
2019 - .308
2020 - .352

-Jason "whew, could that 2019 have used a reliable outside shooter or what? Not to rag on Cam, but if Kennard had been on that team instead of him we cut down the nets with ease" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Doing a media avail with Nate James right now and he is raving about Henry Coleman and Jeremy Roach. Calls Roach the most talented player on the team and says Coleman is the energy guy who lifts his team every time he comes into the game. When asked who the "Nate James bada** on this team," he did not hesitate a moment before saying it is Coleman.

Look, things can always develop in ways you do not anticipate, but I would be a little bit shocked at this point if Coleman is not a rotation player this season.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Doing a media avail with Nate James right now and he is raving about Henry Coleman and Jeremy Roach. Calls Roach the most talented player on the team and says Coleman is the energy guy who lifts his team every time he comes into the game. When asked who the "Nate James bada** on this team," he did not hesitate a moment before saying it is Coleman.

Look, things can always develop in ways you do not anticipate, but I would be a little bit shocked at this point if Coleman is not a rotation player this season.

Coleman is sort of like the antithesis to the projected frontcourt starters, Johnson and Hurt. He's going to be a defense-for-offense substitute or someone that comes in and plays when the team needs an emotional lift. I could see him being a late game substitute at the 5 to hold a lead on account of his rebounding and versatility. KenPom did an analysis a couple years ago and found that teams tend to go smaller as the game goes on. Coleman is ideal in that role as an undersized defensive post player that will fight to get the rebound or cut off a driving lane.

I do love the idea of a Roach, Goldwire, Moore, Coleman, and Williams in the game when the team needs a stop. That could be a really good defensive unit and not so bad offensively since three of those guys are capable of handling the ball and distributing.

[Jaks19]

Roach must really be separating himself from JGold and DJ if he is getting comments like that from Nate.
At this point, I could imagine that Roach has earned being a starter. IMPO, I'd like to see Roach and Moore as the starting back court with Johnson as the 3/4 with Hurt and Williams at the 5. The bench would be so explosive with JGold running the show and DJ, Baker, Coleman, Brakefield and Tape' …. all scorers.

[jimsumner]

Doing a media avail with Nate James right now and he is raving about Henry Coleman and Jeremy Roach. Calls Roach the most talented player on the team and says Coleman is the energy guy who lifts his team every time he comes into the game. When asked who the "Nate James bada** on this team," he did not hesitate a moment before saying it is Coleman.

Look, things can always develop in ways you do not anticipate, but I would be a little bit shocked at this point if Coleman is not a rotation player this season.

That's not what I got on Roach. I thought he was saying between Roach and Goldwire that Roach was the more talented.

Anyway. More later.

[Kedsy]

Look, things can always develop in ways you do not anticipate, but I would be a little bit shocked at this point if Coleman is not a rotation player this season.

How long do you think the rotation will be by mid-season? If you say 7 or 8 (as would be historically the case), who are the three or four players you think will be out of the rotation (if Coleman is in it)?

Almost definitely in: Roach, Steward, Johnson, Moore, Hurt, Goldwire. So (unless you think Steward or Goldwire won't be in the rotation) if Coleman is in the rotation that means the rotation will include at most one out of: Tapé, Williams, Baker, and Brakefield, and quite possibly none of them (in a 7-man rotation). Which makes no sense to me.

Even if the rotation is 9-deep, that means Coleman would be playing ahead of Brakefield (possible, I guess) and one of Tapé or Baker or Williams (seems unlikely to me, but I suppose you never know).

Last season the rotation stayed around 9-deep until late February (at which point it tightened), so if Coach K has truly changed his stripes, your idea is possible if Tapé or Baker or Williams ends up glued to the bench. I just think it's more likely that Tapé and Baker and Williams play rotation minutes ahead of Coleman and Brakefield. I certainly wouldn't be "a little bit shocked" if Coleman was behind those three guys.

And if you think the rotation will be 10-deep (or 11-deep), then Coleman's inclusion is not the shocking part of the prediction.

[DukieTiger]

How long do you think the rotation will be by mid-season? If you say 7 or 8 (as would be historically the case), who are the three or four players you think will be out of the rotation (if Coleman is in it)?

Almost definitely in: Roach, Steward, Johnson, Moore, Hurt, Goldwire. So (unless you think Steward or Goldwire won't be in the rotation) if Coleman is in the rotation that means the rotation will include at most one out of: Tapé, Williams, Baker, and Brakefield, and quite possibly none of them (in a 7-man rotation). Which makes no sense to me.

Even if the rotation is 9-deep, that means Coleman would be playing ahead of Brakefield (possible, I guess) and one of Tapé or Baker or Williams (seems unlikely to me, but I suppose you never know).

Last season the rotation stayed around 9-deep until late February (at which point it tightened), so if Coach K has truly changed his stripes, your idea is possible if Tapé or Baker or Williams ends up glued to the bench. I just think it's more likely that Tapé and Baker and Williams play rotation minutes ahead of Coleman and Brakefield. I certainly wouldn't be "a little bit shocked" if Coleman was behind those three guys.

And if you think the rotation will be 10-deep (or 11-deep), then Coleman's inclusion is not the shocking part of the prediction.

@Kedsy - it's been a while since I've reviewed your classic playing time analyses. I know you have a lot of insight into projected playing time that factors in talent (via RSCI rank) and experience. Do you ever take into account positional (or skill set) scarcity?

Like, it seems to me that in a year where there's little separation (yet), K might be forced to play a deeper lineup?

Factors I'm looking at if I consider your "almost definitely in" list, which I'm assuming was informed by your typical analytical framework...


The list excludes both Duke's centers and (probably) its 3 best post defenders
It also excludes Duke's best shooter
It only really includes 2 guys (out of 4 or 5) who can defend bigger wings


It seems to me that one of Williams or Tape, along with Baker and one of Coleman/Brakefield will almost definitely see substantial time, even in competitive games. It almost feels like it has to when 3 of your top 6 players are 6'3 and under, and a fourth is 6'5.

If I had to wager, I'd predict the regular rotation - even into Feb/Mar, looking something like:

Goldwire
Roach
Steward
Moore
Baker
Johnson
Hurt
Flex spot #1: Either Williams or Tape playing significant minutes, but this spot getting regular minutes each game
Flex spot #2: Same as above but this time with Coleman and Brakefield


That's cheating a bit but it's a 9 man rotation with a few guys filtering in and out. I'd argue last year was a similar situation.

So, to re-state my question, I'm wondering if you've ever looked at lineup height as a factor when predicting the Duke rotation?... Or shooting ability as a similar predictive factor. (yeah, yeah, I know Demarcus Nelson played small ball 4 for a while there... ;) )

[flyingdutchdevil]

How long do you think the rotation will be by mid-season? If you say 7 or 8 (as would be historically the case), who are the three or four players you think will be out of the rotation (if Coleman is in it)?

Almost definitely in: Roach, Steward, Johnson, Moore, Hurt, Goldwire. So (unless you think Steward or Goldwire won't be in the rotation) if Coleman is in the rotation that means the rotation will include at most one out of: Tapé, Williams, Baker, and Brakefield, and quite possibly none of them (in a 7-man rotation). Which makes no sense to me.

Even if the rotation is 9-deep, that means Coleman would be playing ahead of Brakefield (possible, I guess) and one of Tapé or Baker or Williams (seems unlikely to me, but I suppose you never know).

Last season the rotation stayed around 9-deep until late February (at which point it tightened), so if Coach K has truly changed his stripes, your idea is possible if Tapé or Baker or Williams ends up glued to the bench. I just think it's more likely that Tapé and Baker and Williams play rotation minutes ahead of Coleman and Brakefield. I certainly wouldn't be "a little bit shocked" if Coleman was behind those three guys.

And if you think the rotation will be 10-deep (or 11-deep), then Coleman's inclusion is not the shocking part of the prediction.

Can I ask where the optimism from Steward comes from? He can handle the ball, but we don't need that. He can get to the rim, but do you really trust a 163 lb combo guard driving in ACC traffic? He can shoot, which we clearly need. But he's tiny and will undoubtedly get pummeled on D (he'll be up against players 20-40 lbs heavier).

I agree that Roach, Johnson, Moore, Hurt, and Goldwire are rotation locks. You'd like to think a junior Baker is also a lock (he offers a lot of necessary shooting), but I'm not so sure. At least one of the big men (Tape, Williams, Coleman, Brakefield) will be in the rotation. Maybe even two of those cats.

So, to sum up, we have 5 starters + at least 1 of Baker/Steward + at least 1 big man + the other of Baker/Steward or another big man for a total of 8 true rotation players. Bottomline, choose 3 of Baker/Steward/Tape/Wiliams/Coleman/Brakefield.

FOr the record, I agree with your rotation approach, but I'm just not sold on Steward as a guaranteed rotation player.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Regarding Steward, I don't think we should be too concerned about his size in college. There are just not that many teams that run a traditional PG, SG, SF, PF, and C lineup anymore. You see a lot of teams with a 4-out style of play. Take Illinois, Duke's opponent on December 8th. The Illini are one of the few teams with a true center in Kofi Cockburn (7'0" 275 lbs). But their starting "4" most of last season was Da'Monte Williams, a 6'3" 190 lb "G/F." UNC is probably going to run out RJ Davis, all of 5'11" 170 lbs as their SG for a lot of the season. And if the Duke offense is really going to play 5-oout with Hurt and Johnson in the front court, that is going to pull defenders away from the rim and allow Steward to get easy driving lanes to the rim with few defenders.

[Troublemaker]

From the Steve Wiseman Charlotte Observer article linked on the DBR front page
https://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/article247085217.html

He says the initial starters will probably be the small ball line-up of Goldwire, Roach, Hurt, Johnson and Moore. There is so much buzz around Coleman that he seems destined for minutes. Nate James also called out Tape as someone who seems to have accepted his defend, screen, rebound role as a big.


Very excited that we're going to give the two-forwards look a shot in starting Matthew and Jalen as the bigs. I think given Jalen's passing acumen, his best offensive role will be to play as a Draymond-Green-like smallball center. More on that in a second.

First, though, the most interesting quote from Coach James in that article was him talking about Jeremy Roach: "He’s terrific in the ball screen. That’s something that we really haven’t had in a while."

One thing Duke fans may not realize is that we actually run way fewer pick-n-rolls than most teams around the country. From Synergy:
https://i.imgur.com/Uvst9Ri.png


Maybe Jeremy changes that. And if he does, then I think having Jalen set the screen and end up in "short roll" situations while surrounded by shooters like DJ, Matt, and Joey would be very fun to watch and very effective offense.

What does a "short roll" look like? Here's a long compilation of Draymond Green, a forward with excellent passing and handling skills, performing out of the "short roll". Hopefully Jalen can mimic this if PnR becomes more of a staple of Duke's offense.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mB8rqvFNjYk

Like I said, it's a long video, and the highlights are arranged in this order -- (1)Lobs, (2)Dropoffs, (3)Kickouts, (4)Finishes, (5)Floaters -- if you want to skip around. Besides floaters, I suspect Jalen can execute the rest out of the "short roll."

[DukieTiger]

Man, it's bonkers that the Zion team utilized PnR so little, even relative to other recent Duke teams.

Agree that this team has some PnR potential though - finally got the potential for good spacing for the first time since what? 2017?

[Troublemaker]

Roach must really be separating himself from JGold and DJ if he is getting comments like that from Nate.
At this point, I could imagine that Roach has earned being a starter. IMPO, I'd like to see Roach and Moore as the starting back court with Johnson as the 3/4 with Hurt and Williams at the 5. The bench would be so explosive with JGold running the show and DJ, Baker, Coleman, Brakefield and Tapé …. all scorers.

It'd be very surprising at this point to see Williams starting. Have you been doing your reading? For example, here are quotes from a recent Wendell Moore presser (https://goduke.com/news/2020/11/10/mens-basketball-wendell-moore-jr-press-conference-quotes.aspx):

"I would say the strength of our team is our quickness. Coach mentions to us all the time that we're not going to be the biggest team on the floor. There's probably going to be one or two guys on the other team that are always bigger than us, so we have to use our quickness to our advantage, whether it's in transition or whether it's on the defensive end. We just have to pick out mismatches. Like I said, if we have Matt Hurt at the five, there's a chance he's going to have a 6'11 center on him. If he's able to stretch him out to the three-point line, I think we can pick apart our mismatches very easily."

Duke seems intent on playing small and fast this season. Also, playing Jalen as a SF would be a waste of his skills (as would playing Draymond Green at the 3 on offense). What makes him an interesting prospect is that he's a big body who can pass and handle. Have him be one of our "bigs" so he can "grab and go" on rebounds and torture opponents in transition as well as potentially be a tough cover in the halfcourt (perhaps out of the "short roll" and/or perhaps at the elbows when we run Horns). As Wendell alluded to in his presser, opposing centers will have to cover either Matt or Jalen.



Even if the rotation is 9-deep, that means Coleman would be playing ahead of Brakefield (possible, I guess) and one of Tapé or Baker or Williams (seems unlikely to me, but I suppose you never know).

Last season the rotation stayed around 9-deep until late February (at which point it tightened), so if Coach K has truly changed his stripes, your idea is possible if Tapé or Baker or Williams ends up glued to the bench. I just think it's more likely that Tapé and Baker and Williams play rotation minutes ahead of Coleman and Brakefield. I certainly wouldn't be "a little bit shocked" if Coleman was behind those three guys.

FWIW, when we submit for the minutes contest, I'll probably have a 9-man rotation with Coleman playing ahead of Brakefield and Williams.



I do love the idea of a Roach, Goldwire, Moore, Coleman, and Williams in the game when the team needs a stop. That could be a really good defensive unit and not so bad offensively since three of those guys are capable of handling the ball and distributing.

Love ya DBA, but that lineup would be pretty bad offensively, imo.

[Kedsy]

Can I ask where the optimism from Steward comes from? He can handle the ball, but we don't need that. He can get to the rim, but do you really trust a 163 lb combo guard driving in ACC traffic? He can shoot, which we clearly need. But he's tiny and will undoubtedly get pummeled on D (he'll be up against players 20-40 lbs heavier).

I agree that Roach, Johnson, Moore, Hurt, and Goldwire are rotation locks. You'd like to think a junior Baker is also a lock (he offers a lot of necessary shooting), but I'm not so sure. At least one of the big men (Tape, Williams, Coleman, Brakefield) will be in the rotation. Maybe even two of those cats.

So, to sum up, we have 5 starters + at least 1 of Baker/Steward + at least 1 big man + the other of Baker/Steward or another big man for a total of 8 true rotation players. Bottomline, choose 3 of Baker/Steward/Tape/Wiliams/Coleman/Brakefield.

FOr the record, I agree with your rotation approach, but I'm just not sold on Steward as a guaranteed rotation player.

Steward was the #24 recruit and is one of our three proven shooters. In the scrimmages from which we have film, he looked like he should live up to the hype. Whatever his weight, I'll be very surprised if he's not in the rotation.


@Kedsy - it's been a while since I've reviewed your classic playing time analyses. I know you have a lot of insight into projected playing time that factors in talent (via RSCI rank) and experience. Do you ever take into account positional (or skill set) scarcity?

My projections split the players into "perimeter" and "interior" players. Not counting last season (for the moment), K generally plays 4 perimeter players and 3 interior players in his post-January 1, close game rotation. If he has 5 outstanding perimeter options (in my system that's 3.0 rating or better), then he plays 5 perimeter and 3 interior players.

Exceptions were 2010, when we only had four perimeter players so he played four perimeter and four interior (three of whom were 2.0 or better, plus surprise rotation player Miles Plumlee, who the system didn't predict would play so perhaps there is hope for Henry Coleman); and 2020, when K seemed to play a 9-man rotation (although the last six or so games (mid-February on) it was tightening and then the season was cut short so we didn't necessarily get a full picture).

We don't know if last season's longer rotation represents a harbinger for this year and the future. Adding to the uncertainty are Patrick Tapé, as the only grad-transfer Duke has ever had, and Jordan Goldwire's progression despite his extremely low rank coming out of high school. In the RSCI era, we've only had four non-walk-on recruits outside the high school top 150. Two of them (Goldwire and Jack White have progressed as if they were top 150 players and two of them (Andre Buckner and Antonio Vrankovic) have progressed as if they were walk-ons, so it's hard to judge how players like Jordan should be initially ranked. For now, let's initially rank Goldwire and Tapé as if they were halfway between the two.

My numeric system says: for freshmen, 1 to 10 is 1.0; 11 to 20 is 2.0; 21 to 35 is 3.0; 36 to 150 is 4.0. For non-freshmen, subtract half a point for each year in the program.

Like I said, let's rank Goldwire and Tapé as if they came into college as 4.5. Then, putting it all together, here's what we have:

PERIMETER PLAYERS:
Roach 2.0, Moore 2.5, Goldwire 3.0, Baker 3.0, Steward 3.0

INTERIOR PLAYERS:
Hurt 1.5, Johnson 2.0, Tapé 3.0, Williams 3.0, Brakefield 3.0, Coleman 4.0


Note that this is the **only** year in the RSCI era (going back to 1998 or so) where we haven't had one or more players ranked 1.0 or better. In fact, it's only the fifth season in which we haven't had at least three such players (2013 (2, plus senior Seth Curry); 2014 (1); 2016 (1), 2020 (1), and now 2021 (0)). It's only the third season in which we haven't had at least three players ranked 1.5 or better (2013 (2, plus senior Seth Curry); 2016 (1, not counting injured Amile Jefferson); and now 2021 (1)).

Assuming 2020 was an anomaly, the system would predict five perimeter players (we only have five, and they're all 3.0 or better) and three interior players (Hurt, Johnson, and *one of* Tapé, Williams, or Brakefield). Ties usually go to the player with more experience, though none of the three (or four, if you count Coleman) have any experience at Duke. If Ivy League experience ends up counting, the guess would be the tie would go to Tapé; if it doesn't count then it could be any of the three and my money would be on Williams.

The system isn't always right (though it most often is), but in every scenario (even a 9-man rotation), the system would predict Henry Coleman to be outside the main rotation. I guess we'll just have to see.

[DukieTiger]

Steward was the #24 recruit and is one of our three proven shooters. In the scrimmages from which we have film, he looked like he should live up to the hype. Whatever his weight, I'll be very surprised if he's not in the rotation.



My projections split the players into "perimeter" and "interior" players. Not counting last season (for the moment), K generally plays 4 perimeter players and 3 interior players in his post-January 1, close game rotation. If he has 5 outstanding perimeter options (in my system that's 3.0 rating or better), then he plays 5 perimeter and 3 interior players.

Exceptions were 2010, when we only had four perimeter players so he played four perimeter and four interior (three of whom were 2.0 or better, plus surprise rotation player Miles Plumlee, who the system didn't predict would play so perhaps there is hope for Henry Coleman); and 2020, when K seemed to play a 9-man rotation (although the last six or so games (mid-February on) it was tightening and then the season was cut short so we didn't necessarily get a full picture).

We don't know if last season's longer rotation represents a harbinger for this year and the future. Adding to the uncertainty are Patrick Tapé, as the only grad-transfer Duke has ever had, and Jordan Goldwire's progression despite his extremely low rank coming out of high school. In the RSCI era, we've only had four non-walk-on recruits outside the high school top 150. Two of them (Goldwire and Jack White have progressed as if they were top 150 players and two of them (Andre Buckner and Antonio Vrankovic) have progressed as if they were walk-ons, so it's hard to judge how players like Jordan should be initially ranked. For now, let's initially rank Goldwire and Tapé as if they were halfway between the two.

My numeric system says: for freshmen, 1 to 10 is 1.0; 11 to 20 is 2.0; 21 to 35 is 3.0; 36 to 150 is 4.0. For non-freshmen, subtract half a point for each year in the program.

Like I said, let's rank Goldwire and Tapé as if they came into college as 4.5. Then, putting it all together, here's what we have:

PERIMETER PLAYERS:
Roach 2.0, Moore 2.5, Goldwire 3.0, Baker 3.0, Steward 3.0

INTERIOR PLAYERS:
Hurt 1.5, Johnson 2.0, Tapé 3.0, Williams 3.0, Brakefield 3.0, Coleman 4.0


Note that this is the **only** year in the RSCI era (going back to 1998 or so) where we haven't had one or more players ranked 1.0 or better. In fact, it's only the fifth season in which we haven't had at least three such players (2013 (2, plus senior Seth Curry); 2014 (1); 2016 (1), 2020 (1), and now 2021 (0)). It's only the third season in which we haven't had at least three players ranked 1.5 or better (2013 (2, plus senior Seth Curry); 2016 (1, not counting injured Amile Jefferson); and now 2021 (1)).

Assuming 2020 was an anomaly, the system would predict five perimeter players (we only have five, and they're all 3.0 or better) and three interior players (Hurt, Johnson, and *one of* Tapé, Williams, or Brakefield). Ties usually go to the player with more experience, though none of the three (or four, if you count Coleman) have any experience at Duke. If Ivy League experience ends up counting, the guess would be the tie would go to Tapé; if it doesn't count then it could be any of the three and my money would be on Williams.

The system isn't always right (though it most often is), but in every scenario (even a 9-man rotation), the system would predict Henry Coleman to be outside the main rotation. I guess we'll just have to see.

Thanks for the awesome post! This year feels tough to predict, not only because of the Goldwire/Tape dynamic, but also because the 2020 high school class had some unique variables.

Johnson, Roach and Williams all coming off injuries
No ASG circuit for late rankings movement


I'd have to think that there's a bit less certainty in the RSCI order than in past seasons, and there's an easy world where Johnson is a 1.0 - though admittedly, the ASG circuit probably wouldn't have done a ton to generate movement for the rest of the class.

You bring up an interesting point, that this Duke team has an abnormally low amount of 1.0 players (read: none)... The general fuzziness of this team's projections is reinforced in this chart I generated which maps % returning minutes against a talent metric. The diamond is 2021. (Source: Bart Torvik (https://www.barttorvik.com/team-history.php?sort=&team=Duke&t2value=None&avg=conf&top=0&quad=4&venue=All&type=All&pxax=99&pyax=33))

This Duke team's projection is... not favorable compared to any team in the Torvik era. We're depending on guys outperforming their projections, to a degree. Some of them have already done that, so it's not as though the season's outlook should be bleak. But I think it reinforces the idea that the rotation might be tough to predict, since we don't know who will or won't outperform.

11862

[DavidBenAkiva]

Love ya DBA, but that lineup would be pretty bad offensively, imo.

Tough, but fair

[jv001]

Steward was the #24 recruit and is one of our three proven shooters. In the scrimmages from which we have film, he looked like he should live up to the hype. Whatever his weight, I'll be very surprised if he's not in the rotation.



My projections split the players into "perimeter" and "interior" players. Not counting last season (for the moment), K generally plays 4 perimeter players and 3 interior players in his post-January 1, close game rotation. If he has 5 outstanding perimeter options (in my system that's 3.0 rating or better), then he plays 5 perimeter and 3 interior players.

Exceptions were 2010, when we only had four perimeter players so he played four perimeter and four interior (three of whom were 2.0 or better, plus surprise rotation player Miles Plumlee, who the system didn't predict would play so perhaps there is hope for Henry Coleman); and 2020, when K seemed to play a 9-man rotation (although the last six or so games (mid-February on) it was tightening and then the season was cut short so we didn't necessarily get a full picture).

We don't know if last season's longer rotation represents a harbinger for this year and the future. Adding to the uncertainty are Patrick Tapé, as the only grad-transfer Duke has ever had, and Jordan Goldwire's progression despite his extremely low rank coming out of high school. In the RSCI era, we've only had four non-walk-on recruits outside the high school top 150. Two of them (Goldwire and Jack White have progressed as if they were top 150 players and two of them (Andre Buckner and Antonio Vrankovic) have progressed as if they were walk-ons, so it's hard to judge how players like Jordan should be initially ranked. For now, let's initially rank Goldwire and Tapé as if they were halfway between the two.

My numeric system says: for freshmen, 1 to 10 is 1.0; 11 to 20 is 2.0; 21 to 35 is 3.0; 36 to 150 is 4.0. For non-freshmen, subtract half a point for each year in the program.

Like I said, let's rank Goldwire and Tapé as if they came into college as 4.5. Then, putting it all together, here's what we have:

PERIMETER PLAYERS:
Roach 2.0, Moore 2.5, Goldwire 3.0, Baker 3.0, Steward 3.0

INTERIOR PLAYERS:
Hurt 1.5, Johnson 2.0, Tapé 3.0, Williams 3.0, Brakefield 3.0, Coleman 4.0


Note that this is the **only** year in the RSCI era (going back to 1998 or so) where we haven't had one or more players ranked 1.0 or better. In fact, it's only the fifth season in which we haven't had at least three such players (2013 (2, plus senior Seth Curry); 2014 (1); 2016 (1), 2020 (1), and now 2021 (0)). It's only the third season in which we haven't had at least three players ranked 1.5 or better (2013 (2, plus senior Seth Curry); 2016 (1, not counting injured Amile Jefferson); and now 2021 (1)).

Assuming 2020 was an anomaly, the system would predict five perimeter players (we only have five, and they're all 3.0 or better) and three interior players (Hurt, Johnson, and *one of* Tapé, Williams, or Brakefield). Ties usually go to the player with more experience, though none of the three (or four, if you count Coleman) have any experience at Duke. If Ivy League experience ends up counting, the guess would be the tie would go to Tapé; if it doesn't count then it could be any of the three and my money would be on Williams.

The system isn't always right (though it most often is), but in every scenario (even a 9-man rotation), the system would predict Henry Coleman to be outside the main rotation. I guess we'll just have to see.

Thanks for usual great insight on all things Duke. As for last years team, The Admiral's son looked to be joining the rotation in a big way at seasons end.

GoDuke!

[Kedsy]

As for last years team, The Admiral's son looked to be joining the rotation in a big way at seasons end.

GoDuke!

Yes, he did. But he was an actual walk-on and he barely played for three-and-a-half years. Hard to draw any conclusions for the future from that.

[Troublemaker]

Assuming 2020 was an anomaly, the system would predict five perimeter players (we only have five, and they're all 3.0 or better) and three interior players (Hurt, Johnson, and *one of* Tapé, Williams, or Brakefield). Ties usually go to the player with more experience, though none of the three (or four, if you count Coleman) have any experience at Duke. If Ivy League experience ends up counting, the guess would be the tie would go to Tapé; if it doesn't count then it could be any of the three and my money would be on Williams.

The system isn't always right (though it most often is), but in every scenario (even a 9-man rotation), the system would predict Henry Coleman to be outside the main rotation. I guess we'll just have to see.

Thanks as always for posting your model's predictions. That's what I have, except I added Coleman to form a 9-man rotation based on the coaches/players' comments about him, Coach K expanding the rotation last season (so we know he has it in him), and my (and many people's) favorite draft website The Stepien's high opinion of Henry.

Re: the latter, here is Ross Homan recently saying Henry could eventually be a top-20 pick (scroll down past the Keon Johnson scouting): https://www.thestepien.com/2020/10/12/keon-johnson-predicting-improvement/

And Mike Gribanov also has Henry in his very-early (from July 2019) top-20: https://www.thestepien.com/2019/07/29/2021-preview-interview-ignacio-rissotto/
(Incidentally, Gribanov also likes Brakefield a lot).

[DukieTiger]

Thanks as always for posting your model's predictions. That's what I have, except I added Coleman to form a 9-man rotation based on the coaches/players' comments about him, Coach K expanding the rotation last season (so we know he has it in him), and my (and many people's) favorite draft website The Stepien's high opinion of Henry.

Re: the latter, here is Ross Homan recently saying Henry could eventually be a top-20 pick (scroll down past the Keon Johnson scouting): https://www.thestepien.com/2020/10/12/keon-johnson-predicting-improvement/

And Mike Gribanov also has Henry in his very-early (from July 2019) top-20: https://www.thestepien.com/2019/07/29/2021-preview-interview-ignacio-rissotto/
(Incidentally, Gribanov also likes Brakefield a lot).

Yes, you're getting at some of the variables that make rotation prediction challenging for me this year. Are the recruit rankings as reliable this year (given the pandemic) as in years past? Advanced scouts like the Stepien guys were all over Coleman and Brakefield tbh - might the national scouts have caught on between March and June? Hard to say.

Nevertheless, we know rankings are imperfect predictors and there are always exceptions to the rule. And what Troublemaker is highlighting is that there is at least a little bit of reason to believe Duke has landed one or two of these "exceptions" in the same class. It's entirely possible that Coleman, Brakefield, Tape and Goldwire are all exceptions to the typical Duke lineup rules. To me, this implies a deeper lineup that cycles in different guys for spots 7, 8 and 9 depending on matchups. Time will tell - at least I hope!

[Kedsy]

Thanks as always for posting your model's predictions. That's what I have, except I added Coleman to form a 9-man rotation based on the coaches/players' comments about him, Coach K expanding the rotation last season (so we know he has it in him), and my (and many people's) favorite draft website The Stepien's high opinion of Henry.

Re: the latter, here is Ross Homan recently saying Henry could eventually be a top-20 pick (scroll down past the Keon Johnson scouting): https://www.thestepien.com/2020/10/12/keon-johnson-predicting-improvement/

And Mike Gribanov also has Henry in his very-early (from July 2019) top-20: https://www.thestepien.com/2019/07/29/2021-preview-interview-ignacio-rissotto/
(Incidentally, Gribanov also likes Brakefield a lot).

You could be right. I've seen a lot of positive comments about both Coleman and Brakefield (who also looked great in the first scrimmage video). The wild thing is, I think people are sleeping on Mark Williams: he's 7'1" and coordinated. From what I've seen and read, he's a great shotblocker and can catch the ball and convert near the basket. And from the scrimmage video, it looks like he can get up and down the floor pretty well, too. Plus, his sister! I think the guy is clearly a future NBA player, and it's crazy to think he might end up buried on the bench.

One of the things that struck me when I put together my earlier post is how almost everyone on the roster has the same "rating." We have six guys who are exactly 3.0, plus a 2.5, a possibly underrated 4.0, and a 2.0 who would be a 3.0 if his RSCI rating was #21 instead of #20. That covers nine of our eleven players (all but Johnson and Hurt, and those guys aren't soooo far ahead, either). Especially since we have five guys who can handle and pass (Roach, Steward, Goldwire, Moore, and Johnson), six guys who could possibly play center (Johnson, Hurt, Williams, Tapé, Coleman, Brakefield), and three-to-five guys who can play a catch-and-shoot role (Baker, Steward, Hurt, possibly Roach and possibly Goldwire) the roster seems to consist of unusually interchangeable parts.

Looking at each individual on our roster, you can easily see every one of the 11 guys playing a big role on the team. But with Coach K those numbers will never add up. Maybe we'll be in a situation where guys play a lot in some games and hardly any in others, but it varies from game to game.

[dukelifer]

You could be right. I've seen a lot of positive comments about both Coleman and Brakefield (who also looked great in the first scrimmage video). The wild thing is, I think people are sleeping on Mark Williams: he's 7'1" and coordinated. From what I've seen and read, he's a great shotblocker and can catch the ball and convert near the basket. And from the scrimmage video, it looks like he can get up and down the floor pretty well, too. Plus, his sister! I think the guy is clearly a future NBA player, and it's crazy to think he might end up buried on the bench.

One of the things that struck me when I put together my earlier post is how almost everyone on the roster has the same "rating." We have six guys who are exactly 3.0, plus a 2.5, a possibly underrated 4.0, and a 2.0 who would be a 3.0 if his RSCI rating was #21 instead of #20. That covers nine of our eleven players (all but Johnson and Hurt, and those guys aren't soooo far ahead, either). Especially since we have five guys who can handle and pass (Roach, Steward, Goldwire, Moore, and Johnson), six guys who could possibly play center (Johnson, Hurt, Williams, Tapé, Coleman, Brakefield), and three-to-five guys who can play a catch-and-shoot role (Baker, Steward, Hurt, possibly Roach and possibly Goldwire) the roster seems to consist of unusually interchangeable parts.

Looking at each individual on our roster, you can easily see every one of the 11 guys playing a big role on the team. But with Coach K those numbers will never add up. Maybe we'll be in a situation where guys play a lot in some games and hardly any in others, but it varies from game to game.
This is going to be an unusual season and I expect K will be experimenting a lot. There is no superstar or ACC POY on the team- just a lot of solid players who will be learning as they go. Yes Hurt and Moore may surprise but we have to see them in action. My gut tells me that K is going to treat this team in a different way. It is going to be strange year.

[Troublemaker]

The wild thing is, I think people are sleeping on Mark Williams: he's 7'1" and coordinated. From what I've seen and read, he's a great shotblocker and can catch the ball and convert near the basket. And from the scrimmage video, it looks like he can get up and down the floor pretty well, too. Plus, his sister! I think the guy is clearly a future NBA player, and it's crazy to think he might end up buried on the bench.

Oh, I think Mark's an excellent prospect and, if he's patient, is going to produce a lot for Duke in the future. I think you're probably right that he's a future pro, too. Maybe I'm drinking the offseason kool-aid too much, but I think our 10th and 11th men would be playing 15+ minutes on every other ACC team (aside from teams with freaky roster constructions, e.g. maybe Mark isn't in the rotation for UNC just because they're so ridiculously loaded with big men). So, it's just one of those things where Coach K isn't going to play more than 9 players consistently (nor do I think it would be advisable to do so), and *somebody* has to be the 10th and 11th men. For me, I think 10 and 11 are going to be Williams and Brakefield. As always, I could be wrong!

Incidentally, just because we're super deep (unless it's the kool-aid, as mentioned), doesn't mean Duke's going to be a great team, as you know. Ultimately, whether Duke becomes a great team or not will depend on how the top 6 develop. Can someone or two or three emerge into being 1st-team All-ACC caliber players?

[CDu]

Oh, I think Mark's an excellent prospect and, if he's patient, is going to produce a lot for Duke in the future. I think you're probably right that he's a future pro, too. Maybe I'm drinking the offseason kool-aid too much, but I think our 10th and 11th men would be playing 15+ minutes on every other ACC team (aside from teams with freaky roster constructions, e.g. maybe Mark isn't in the rotation for UNC just because they're so ridiculously loaded with big men). So, it's just one of those things where Coach K isn't going to play more than 9 players consistently (nor do I think it would be advisable to do so), and *somebody* has to be the 10th and 11th men. For me, I think 10 and 11 are going to be Williams and Brakefield. As always, I could be wrong!

Incidentally, just because we're super deep (unless it's the kool-aid, as mentioned), doesn't mean Duke's going to be a great team, as you know. Ultimately, whether Duke becomes a great team or not will depend on how the top 6 develop. Can someone or two or three emerge into being 1st-team All-ACC caliber players?

I agree. If we think of Baker/Brakefield/Coleman/Tapé/Williams as the 7th/11th men on the team, I would feel pretty comfortable that any of these guys would be regulars on almost any other team. That 2-3 of these guys are going to get marginalized this year is a testament to the team's depth. That said, the question will be more at the top, as this is one of the lighter teams in terms of top-end star power that we've had in a while.

Because of that, I think we may be a bit more likely to go 8-9 deep than in past years.

Regardless, I'm still really excited to see what this team can do. There is a lot of versatility and playmaking ability from this squad, so hopefully we won't need to be quite as reliant on one or two guys as we have been in the past.

[jv001]

Some great information/speculation on this Duke team. Most of the observations are on what the players bring to offense and we all know Coach K stresses good D. With that in mind, I think Wendell Moore is the key on how good Duke will be 20-21. From what I saw last season, Wendell is a good defender and rebounder. However, his decisions on offense at times were subpar(turnovers). Having Johnson, Roach, Goldwire and Steward as good ballhandlers should take some pressure off Wendell. If he can improve his outside shot, he has a chance to be one of the best players in the conference. Back to the defense, Wendell and Goldwire are good on defense but I have no idea how good the newcomers are. Williams has the reputation of being a good rim protector but DBR folks think he might be at the 10th or 11th player in the rotation. I think minutes(come Jan, 2021) will depend on which players can step up and play good Duke man2man.

GoDuke!

[Kedsy]

Some great information/speculation on this Duke team. Most of the observations are on what the players bring to offense and we all know Coach K stresses good D. With that in mind, I think Wendell Moore is the key on how good Duke will be 20-21. From what I saw last season, Wendell is a good defender and rebounder. However, his decisions on offense at times were subpar(turnovers). Having Johnson, Roach, Goldwire and Steward as good ballhandlers should take some pressure off Wendell. If he can improve his outside shot, he has a chance to be one of the best players in the conference. Back to the defense, Wendell and Goldwire are good on defense but I have no idea how good the newcomers are. Williams has the reputation of being a good rim protector but DBR folks think he might be at the 10th or 11th player in the rotation. I think minutes(come Jan, 2021) will depend on which players can step up and play good Duke man2man.

GoDuke!

I agree that defense will be key for this year's team and also that we don't have a great feel yet about how good (or not) this team will be on defense. We know Wendell Moore and Jordan Goldwire are good defenders. I think the keys will be (a) how good are Jeremy Roach and DJ Steward at defense? and (b) how much have Matthew Hurt and Joey Baker improved on that end of the floor?

Speaking of Matthew Hurt, I just saw video of another scrimmage and Hurt was in street clothes. Is Hurt hurt?

[DavidBenAkiva]

Instead of a traditional Countdown to Craziness experience, Duke's social media is putting together a video for fans, Countdown: The Movie. The movie was premiered to the team this evening and will be available to the public on Friday, November 20th.

https://twitter.com/DukeMBB/status/1327621176886140928

[JasonEvans]

Speaking of Matthew Hurt, I just saw video of another scrimmage and Hurt was in street clothes. Is Hurt hurt?

Nate said that Hurt “tweaked” his knee in last week’s scrimmage. I don’t know if it is something more serious or if it is just precautionary at this point. I will be speaking to the coaching staff again on Tuesday and I am sure someone will ask.

[JasonEvans]

Nate said that Hurt “tweaked” his knee in last week’s scrimmage. I don’t know if it is something more serious or if it is just precautionary at this point. I will be speaking to the coaching staff again on Tuesday and I am sure someone will ask.

Just FYI -- CWell told me today that Matt Hurt and Henry Coleman both had minor injuries that had held them out of practice for a few days but it was nothing serious. If there was a game, both of those guys would play, he said.

He also commented that in their absence, Jalen Johnson has really stepped up. It is clear that there was a lot of rust on Jalen's game but that is starting to come off and it seems like the coaches are really impressed with the JJ they have seen lately.

[MChambers]

Just FYI -- CWell told me today that Matt Hurt and Henry Coleman both had minor injuries that had held them out of practice for a few days but it was nothing serious. If there was a game, both of those guys would play, he said.

He also commented that in their absence, Jalen Johnson has really stepped up. It is clear that there was a lot of rust on Jalen's game but that is starting to come off and it seems like the coaches are really impressed with the JJ they have seen lately.

K said the same thing about the injuries to Hurt and Coleman in a video Duke shared on Facebook.

[DukieTiger]

Don’t look now, but Henry Coleman is popping up in the first round of 2021 mock drafts / big boards.

https://www.sbnation.com/2020/11/19/21567033/nba-mock-draft-2021-cade-cunningham-jalen-green-evan-mobley

I also read an interesting article on DJ Steward (scroll down) http://jakeinthepaint.com/looking-ahead-to-2021-my-guys/

It’s becoming evident that Duke has a bunch of guys with first round potential but likely that not all of them will be featured or get enough minutes to help their stock this year. Will be fascinating to watch the rotation develop. It also boxes tremendously well for next year, but that’s a different thread.