Nugget
07-22-2020, 01:11 PM
KenPom has a piece to fill the summer doldrums that moves past the familiar question whether to foul up 3 to the question whether to foul late if up 2, up 1 or tied. https://kenpom.com/blog/
The takeway - including a statistical note that I hadn't seen pointed out before, but jibes with my "eye test" instinct, that free-throwers tend to do worse on their first shot than their average:
We see that the strategy is most viable for teams up 2, especially for underdogs in the single-bonus. As shown with the USF/BYU case, underdogs up 2 are trading only a slight increase in the chance of overtime for a significantly increased chance of winning in regulation when they foul.
The strategy is also quite useful for underdogs when tied in the single-bonus due to the chance of a poor free-throw shooter missing the first attempt and giving the fouling team the final possession in a tied game. In a tie game, fouling increases one’s chance of winning if the game ends in regulation and reduces the chance of overtime. So there’s a strong underdog effect here since they suffer more than a favorite in an overtime situation relative to ending a game in regulation.
We should note that when implementing this strategy, it’s important to consider that a player’s season-to-date free-throw percentage may not accurately represent his true ability. In particular, players are worse on their first free-throw attempt than their season average. In games involving power conference teams since 2010, players have made 67.4% of their first attempts and 73.1% of their second attempts in two-shot foul situations. That’s important in the single-bonus situation where the chance of making no free throws is extremely beneficial to the fouling team.
At any rate, the math is clear. When tied or up 2 on defense and the shot clock is off, teams can benefit from putting a below-average free throw shooter on the line. Especially underdogs in the single-bonus.
The takeway - including a statistical note that I hadn't seen pointed out before, but jibes with my "eye test" instinct, that free-throwers tend to do worse on their first shot than their average:
We see that the strategy is most viable for teams up 2, especially for underdogs in the single-bonus. As shown with the USF/BYU case, underdogs up 2 are trading only a slight increase in the chance of overtime for a significantly increased chance of winning in regulation when they foul.
The strategy is also quite useful for underdogs when tied in the single-bonus due to the chance of a poor free-throw shooter missing the first attempt and giving the fouling team the final possession in a tied game. In a tie game, fouling increases one’s chance of winning if the game ends in regulation and reduces the chance of overtime. So there’s a strong underdog effect here since they suffer more than a favorite in an overtime situation relative to ending a game in regulation.
We should note that when implementing this strategy, it’s important to consider that a player’s season-to-date free-throw percentage may not accurately represent his true ability. In particular, players are worse on their first free-throw attempt than their season average. In games involving power conference teams since 2010, players have made 67.4% of their first attempts and 73.1% of their second attempts in two-shot foul situations. That’s important in the single-bonus situation where the chance of making no free throws is extremely beneficial to the fouling team.
At any rate, the math is clear. When tied or up 2 on defense and the shot clock is off, teams can benefit from putting a below-average free throw shooter on the line. Especially underdogs in the single-bonus.