Ranking the Most Likely One and Done Players in Duke's 2020 Recruiting Class

[BlueDevilStop]

https://bluedevilstop.com/ranking-the-most-likely-one-and-done-players-in-dukes-2020-recruiting-class/

I have the likelihood ranked:

1-Johnson
2-Steward
3-Roach
4-Brakefield
5-Williams
6-Coleman

How would you rank them and how many do you predict are One and Done?

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

https://bluedevilstop.com/ranking-the-most-likely-one-and-done-players-in-dukes-2020-recruiting-class/

I have the likelihood ranked:

1-Johnson
2-Steward
3-Roach
4-Brakefield
5-Williams
6-Coleman

How would you rank them and how many do you predict are One and Done?

I think Patrick Tape is most likely to be OAD at Duke.

[JasonEvans]

https://bluedevilstop.com/ranking-the-most-likely-one-and-done-players-in-dukes-2020-recruiting-class/

I have the likelihood ranked:

1-Johnson
2-Steward
3-Roach
4-Brakefield
5-Williams
6-Coleman

How would you rank them and how many do you predict are One and Done?

Ranked is really useless without percentages. For example, in 2019 one could have ranked 1-RJ, 2-Zion, and 3-Cam but the reality was that regardless of the order, all three of them were 90%+ to go pro coming into the season. This year, the third guy on the list for Duke is no more than maybe 50-50.

[Kedsy]

https://bluedevilstop.com/ranking-the-most-likely-one-and-done-players-in-dukes-2020-recruiting-class/

I have the likelihood ranked:

1-Johnson
2-Steward
3-Roach
4-Brakefield
5-Williams
6-Coleman

How would you rank them and how many do you predict are One and Done?

I think (a) Roach has a higher chance of being OAD than Steward; (b) if there's no season, then the only one likely to leave is Johnson; and (c) there's no point to having #4, #5, and 6 on your chart, because all three have probabilities approaching zero (Williams might be slightly above zero, but not high enough to be worth discussing).

[JasonEvans]

I think (a) Roach has a higher chance of being OAD than Steward; (b) if there's no season, then the only one likely to leave is Johnson; and (c) there's no point to having #4, #5, and 6 on your chart, because all three have probabilities approaching zero (Williams might be slightly above zero, but not high enough to be worth discussing).

But would you have said the same about Cassius Stanley a year ago? And wouldn't you have thought Matt Hurt was a near lock to turn pro at this time last year?

[Truth&Justise]

I think Patrick Tape is most likely to be OAD at Duke.

Pay the man, Shirley.

[MChambers]

Pay the man, Shirley.

I think we can close this thread now!

[budwom]

Perhaps the question is, who will be none and done? I just don't see this season getting off the ground, period.

[Kedsy]

But would you have said the same about Cassius Stanley a year ago? And wouldn't you have thought Matt Hurt was a near lock to turn pro at this time last year?

Well, I thought Matthew was probably 50/50 a year ago, because sometimes freshman big men are Ryan Kelly, et al.

As far as Cassius is concerned, a year ago I didn't think he'd be OAD, but I was somewhat confident he'd get rotation minutes (and thus an opportunity to showcase his skills), which is something that seems extremely unlikely for Jaemyn or Henry. Mark Williams should get some minutes, which is why I said his OAD probability was slightly above zero, but he's unlikely to get enough minutes to prove himself ready for the NBA. It's a numbers game -- nobody was clearly ahead of Cassius on the wing while too many people are ahead of Jaemyn and Henry at their positions (and it's pretty crowded for Mark).

[kAzE]

I'll play:

1. Johnson - 100%
2. Roach - 50%
3. Williams - 40%
4. Steward - 40%
5. Brakefield - 10%
6. Coleman - <1%

I'll predict 2 OADs, but the O/U would be 1.5

[Steven43]

I think (a) Roach has a higher chance of being OAD than Steward; (b) if there's no season, then the only one likely to leave is Johnson; and (c) there's no point to having #4, #5, and 6 on your chart, because all three have probabilities approaching zero (Williams might be slightly above zero, but not high enough to be worth discussing).

So Johnson will likely never put on a Duke uniform?

[Jaks19]

I think what the write up was touching on might be true.
Johnson- 100%
Brakefield- 75% bc he too, like Stanley is older and has a very highly attractive skillset to the NBA
Steward- 50%
Roach -50%
William's- 50%
Coleman- 10%

[BlueDevilStop]

I'll play:

1. Johnson - 100%
2. Roach - 50%
3. Williams - 40%
4. Steward - 40%
5. Brakefield - 10%
6. Coleman - <1%

I'll predict 2 OADs, but the O/U would be 1.5


Looks about right to me. I think it will be two as well.

[Kedsy]

Brakefield- 75% bc he too, like Stanley is older and has a very highly attractive skillset to the NBA
William's- 50%
Coleman- 10%

Here's the thing: Math. There are only 80 frontcourt minutes. Johnson and Hurt will take up the lion's share of those minutes, probably around 60 mpg, but let's say 55 to give the above percentages more of a chance. Coach K wouldn't have brought over grad transfer Patrick Tape if he didn't think he could play at least 10 mpg (and 15 or even 20 wouldn't be shocking, but let's go with 10, again just to give your theory it's best shot).

That's at least 65 mpg spoken for, leaving no more than 15 mpg for Williams, Brakefield, and Coleman, combined. I'm assuming Williams gets at least 10 (and possibly more, at least in non-blowouts). Which leaves at most 5 minutes for Brakefield and none for Coleman except in blowouts and against early season directional-schools.

If Mark Williams only plays 10 or so mpg as the 4th man in the 4-man big rotation, would anyone reasonably believe he has a 50% chance of being OAD? I'd say more like 5%, and only that high if he can take most of Tape's minutes.

If Jaemyn Brakefield plays 5 mpg as the 5th man in the 4-man big rotation, would anyone reasonably believe he has a non-zero chance of being OAD? Much less 75%?

If Henry Coleman only plays garbage-time minutes, is a 10% chance of OAD anything more than a pipe dream?

And remember that the above estimates are based on Jalen Johnson getting 30 mpg, Matthew Hurt getting 25 mpg, and Patrick Tape getting 10 mpg, so if you think Williams, Brakefield, and/or Coleman will get enough minutes to go pro, please tell me which of Jalen or Matthew will be dropping out of the rotation? Also, if your answer is Jaemyn will see lots of wing minutes, please identify which of Jeremy Roach, DJ Steward, Wendell Moore, Jordan Goldwire, and Joey Baker will fall out of the rotation (and if you pick Joey, you'll still have to find an additional 5 or 10 mpg somewhere else to give Jaemyn enough minutes to come close to justifying your 75% figure).

In other words, it's not just about how well they play, it's about opportunity. Even if the #33 recruit in the country (as Jaemyn is ranked) was capable of playing like a 1st rounder, he'd need to get the minutes to actually be a first-rounder. Yes, Cassius Stanley was #33 and left after one year, but (a) he's the only freshman ranked #30 or worse since they invented the RSCI to get more than 11.5 mpg at Duke; and (b) there are two wing positions and we only had one wing player ranked better than #33 coming out of high school, meaning oodles of minutes were available for Cassius if he could seize the opportunity (which he obviously did).

Sure, anything can happen. Maybe Jaemyn will take all of Mark's and Patrick's minutes and a handful of Matthew's as well and become All-ACC -- but even so, the odds of that happening are nowhere near 75% (more like a fraction of 1%). I know this isn't an exact science, and everyone's entitled to his or her opinion, but the odds you've come up with are just plain crazy.

[SkyBrickey]

I haven't been on the board in a while. Is that the consensus that Hurt + Johnson will dominate the minutes at the 4/5?

I was expecting to see Williams at least get a shot at the 5 with Hurt + Johnson at the 3/4. Williams is challenged offensively but is supposedly an athletic defender and rebounder at 7 feet. I'm not suggesting Williams is OAD, just that he may earn 18-20 min per game at the 5 - more against some teams like FSU where rebounding is at a premium and less against other clubs where we can go smaller ball...

[JasonEvans]

Just make sure the NBA scouts don't see this video of DJ looking silky smooth: https://twitter.com/overtime/status/1285629478518104065

[Truth&Justise]

I haven't been on the board in a while. Is that the consensus that Hurt + Johnson will dominate the minutes at the 4/5?

I was expecting to see Williams at least get a shot at the 5 with Hurt + Johnson at the 3/4. Williams is challenged offensively but is supposedly an athletic defender and rebounder at 7 feet. I'm not suggesting Williams is OAD, just that he may earn 18-20 min per game at the 5 - more against some teams like FSU where rebounding is at a premium and less against other clubs where we can go smaller ball...

I don't know what I'd consider "consensus" on here. Closest to consensus opinion is that Jalen Johnson will get a lot of minutes, and Matthew Hurt will too. Other than that, some folks think Williams will get a lot of time alongside both, some think we'll go with a smaller lineup, and some folks see important roles for Jaemyn Brakefield, Henry Coleman, and Patrick Tape.

But the important thing to remember is that none of us actually know anything.

[Phredd3]

But the important thing to remember is that none of us actually know anything.

Like whether or not anyone gets any minutes. At all.

[Spanarkel]

But would you have said the same about Cassius Stanley a year ago? And wouldn't you have thought Matt Hurt was a near lock to turn pro at this time last year?

Not really, if you had seen Hurt play AAU for D1MN.