Who’s your surprise player for the 2020-2021 season?

[Jaks19]

Who you go there?

I am stuck between picking Patrick Tape' and Henry Coleman. Maybe it's wishful thinking, but I think one of these bigs will exceed expectations.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Wendell Moore, Jr.

He's going to be a different player next season.

For Freshmen, it's Jaemyn Brakefield. He's going to win the "Cassius Stanley Memorial Underrated Recruit" award.

Jalen Johnson will be compared to some of the best forwards Duke has had in recent years, but that won't be a surprise.

[Jaks19]

Can someone edit my typo
The How's to Who's

[budwom]

I'm not so sure about this 2020-21 season of which you speak...

[Troublemaker]

DJ Steward, who might lead the team in scoring.

[Truth&Justise]

How's your surprise player for the 2020-2021 season?

Right now I'd guess he's holding up ok, staying home, a little apprehensive but trying to stay fit and eager to play again when he can. ;)

[CameronBornAndBred]

Mine's about to be kicked in the shins. He needs to stop jumping out from around blind corners and yelling "Boo!"
It's getting kinda old.

[curtis325]

If the season happens, it's Joey Buckets.

[JNort]

Wendell.

Gonna shine.

[camion]

I hear there's this international kid from Spain who's been flying under the radar. He played for el Equipo de Inquisición last year.

[jv001]

I'm going with Matthew Hurt. ACC First team, 2nd team AA and ACCT MVP. Freshman POY will be Mr. Steward.

GoDuke!

[53n206]

Oh! So many to choose from.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Jalen Johnson.

I think he's gonna have a Jabari/Tatum/Ingram-type season. I think I'm in the minority on this.

Watch out.

Amongst the non-superstars, Wendell Moore. Defensive maestro combined with the ultimate glue guy who may take over PG duties.

[lotusland]

I'm going with Matthew Hurt. ACC First team, 2nd team AA and ACCT MVP. Freshman POY will be Mr. Steward.

GoDuke!

I agree on Hurt. I think JGold has been a surprise every year as far as his performance vs pre-season expectations. Last year JGold, Stanley and finally JRob were pleasant surprises. Jav and Hurt probably performed under expectations and everyone else was about on par imo. I think Moore will also improve and surprise but I’ll go with Hurt for be the biggest improvement. I can’t predict the frosh since I haven’t seen them play.

[Kedsy]

Justin Robinson. Hey, it's just as likely as it was at the beginning of last season.

[Nrrrrvous]

So, is no one choosing Jeremy Roach because they feel that it's a given that he is going to be great? (so not a surprise?) Or because no one thinks he's going to be great?

I feel that blowing out his ACL in HS probably cost him a few spots on the recruiting rankings. If he is back at full health, which he seems to be, I think he's got top-5 talent written all over him!

That crossover and explosive first step are going to have the boys in baby blue crying in their Fruit Loops!

He's going to make the Hokies wish they could take their left foot out and shake it all about!

He's going to have the Cavaliers yelling "Wa-who the Hell was that?"

He's going to make Jim Boeheim wish he'd never fallen in love with NC barbecue!

He's going to make the Wolf-Pups circle 18 times before laying down and taking a nap!!

Shall I continue?

[jv001]

Jalen Johnson.

I think he's gonna have a Jabari/Tatum/Ingram-type season. I think I'm in the minority on this.

Watch out.

Amongst the non-superstars, Wendell Moore. Defensive maestro combined with the ultimate glue guy who may take over PG duties.

The reason I didn't pick Jalen was I believe he's going to be a Tatum/Jabari/Ingram type player and that wouldn't be a surprise. Of the freshmen I believe he's the surest of them to get major minutes.

GoDuke!

[sagegrouse]

Read an article a few years ago that argued that the most undervalued player going into a new season is the "veteran on the bench." If true, that's likely to be Joey Baker.

[MartyClark]

Read an article a few years ago that argued that the most undervalued player going into a new season is the "veteran on the bench." If true, that's likely to be Joey Baker.

Hope you are right. I'm pulling for this kid.

[Kedsy]

Patrick Tape'

Henry Coleman

Wendell Moore, Jr.

Jaemyn Brakefield.

DJ Steward

Matthew Hurt

Jalen Johnson.

Jeremy Roach

Joey Baker.

Come on, guys. Somebody pick Mark Williams and Jordan Goldwire so we can cover the whole roster.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

How many Plumleees are left?

[CameronBlue]

How many Plumleees are left?

Dunno, but I think Matt Christensen has another year of eligibility left.

[MartyClark]

It looks like Zion has a little brother, maybe about ten years old. It's probably another year or two before he is ready to come in and dominate.

[Indoor66]

Nick Horvath hasn't missed a jumper all summer.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Come on, guys. Somebody pick Mark Williams and Jordan Goldwire so we can cover the whole roster.

Dude. What’s your problem? If you don’t like this thread, don’t post here.

I understand quarantine is getting to everyone, but still...

[azzefkram]

Does Kuminga count?

[brevity]

Does it have to be a player? Mike Eades has departed to the SEC.

Jeff Goodman @GoodmanHoops

SEC has tabbed Mike Eades coordinator of officials, replacing Mark Whitehead.

1:03 PM · May 5, 2020 (https://twitter.com/GoodmanHoops/status/1257732617878855681)

The first reply says it all: "Is it possible to give the SEC TV Teddy also as a package deal? Asking for a friend."

[weezie]

Does it have to be a player? Mike Eades has departed to the SEC.

Jeff Goodman @GoodmanHoops

SEC has tabbed Mike Eades coordinator of officials, replacing Mark Whitehead.

1:03 PM · May 5, 2020 (https://twitter.com/GoodmanHoops/status/1257732617878855681)

The first reply says it all: "Is it possible to give the SEC TV Teddy also as a package deal? Asking for a friend."


I must have fainted and hit my head. Came too thinking I'd heard that Eades has sailed into the SEC sunset.

Ahhhhhhhhhhh SEEE YAAAA!

[BlueDevil16]

Wasn’t Joey ranked similar to Moore when they were in the same class? Think he could be an instant offense guy off the bench and with a little improvement in defense should see the floor more often.

[Music man55]

I would say Goldwire. He has surprised me his last two years there,no reason he should stop now.

[jimsumner]

I'm going with Matthew Hurt. ACC First team, 2nd team AA and ACCT MVP. Freshman POY will be Mr. Steward.

GoDuke!

I'm trying to figure out how both of these things could happen. Hurt would need a lot of PT and a lot of touches to be 2nd-team All-America. Steward would need lots of PT and lots of touches to be FOY (I'm assuming you mean ACC Freshman of the Year, not national Freshman of the Year)

Does Hurt play the 5? Does Steward play point? Can either Hurt or Steward reach those levels coming off the bench? Assuming the answer to those questions is no, then at least one of Wendell Moore and Jalen Johnson has to be behind Hurt and Steward in the rotation.

Or am I missing something?

Which of these scenarios do you find most likely?

[jv001]

I'm trying to figure out how both of these things could happen. Hurt would need a lot of PT and a lot of touches to be 2nd-team All-America. Steward would need lots of PT and lots of touches to be FOY (I'm assuming you mean ACC Freshman of the Year, not national Freshman of the Year)

Does Hurt play the 5? Does Steward play point? Can either Hurt or Steward reach those levels coming off the bench? Assuming the answer to those questions is no, then at least one of Wendell Moore and Jalen Johnson has to be behind Hurt and Steward in the rotation.

Or am I missing something?

Which of these scenarios do you find most likely?

Well Mr. Sumner since you asked, I do think Hurt will get plenty of PT because I think he'll play the 4 and 5 during the season. I think this team needs perimeter shooting and for that reason, I believe Hurt and Steward will get plenty of playing time. I'm not sold on Wendell's scoring and decision making as some fans are. I know he plays good defense and that will get him minutes but he's going to have to improve his shooting and reduce those head scratching turnovers. Wendell has the talent to become one of the ACC's best player but I'm not sure it will happen this Covid-19 season. As for Steward, I've never seen him play so my prediction on him is just a wag one.

GoDuke!

[jimsumner]

Well Mr. Sumner since you asked, I do think Hurt will get plenty of PT because I think he'll play the 4 and 5 during the season. I think this team needs perimeter shooting and for that reason, I believe Hurt and Steward will get plenty of playing time. I'm not sold on Wendell's scoring and decision making as some fans are. I know he plays good defense and that will get him minutes but he's going to have to improve his shooting and reduce those head scratching turnovers. Wendell has the talent to become one of the ACC's best player but I'm not sure it will happen this Covid-19 season. As for Steward, I've never seen him play so my prediction on him is just a wag one.

GoDuke!

So you see Steward playing ahead of Moore. Not a scenario that I find likely. But not impossible. However, in order for Steward to be the ACC's top newcomer, he would have to have a better freshman season than Johnson. In that case, either Johnson underperforms expectations or Steward has a really, really good freshman season.

Of course, I guess that's implied in "surprise."

[jv001]

So you see Steward playing ahead of Moore. Not a scenario that I find likely. But not impossible. However, in order for Steward to be the ACC's top newcomer, he would have to have a better freshman season than Johnson. In that case, either Johnson underperforms expectations or Steward has a really, really good freshman season.

Most of the Duke fans I know think Johnson will be Duke's best freshmen and he probably will but the title of the thread was "Who's your surprise player for the 2020-2021 season"? So that's why I picked Steward. If Johnson wins, it will not be a surprise for me. He's the highest rated freshmen and from all scouting reports he may be Duke's best player this season. Maybe I read the title of the thread wrong. I've surely been wrong plenty of times before. Just ask my wife.
GoDuke!

[plimnko]

He might not be the best player, but I'm interested to see Henry Coleman. Could he be the biggest surprise?

[rsvman]

I don't necessarily think this will be a particular surprise to anyone, but I think Moore is going to be really good.

[hustleplays]

Justin Robinson. Hey, it's just as likely as it was at the beginning of last season.

Kedsy,

Intriguing proposition. Would you please provide the stats to support?

Full disclosure: I like your non-stats-based humor. :-) Thank you.

[Kedsy]

Dude. What’s your problem? If you don’t like this thread, don’t post here.


I would say Goldwire. He has surprised me his last two years there,no reason he should stop now.

OK, since he's the last one, just to anger fdd further, I'm going with Mark Williams.

I'm saying that primarily so that every single recruited player on the roster will have earned a "nomination" in this thread, but also because I think it's absolutely crazy that nobody has picked him so far. IMO, Mark is far more likely to be a big contributor than Henry Coleman or Jaemyn Brakefield, and personally I think more than Patrick Tape', as well.

[Indoor66]

Based on this thread, they are all going to wear out their shoes between the scorers table and the foul circle going in and out.

[camion]

Based on this thread, they are all going to wear out their shoes between the scorers table and the foul circle going in and out.

That would be the biggest surprise. :)

[jipops]

I expect guys like Moore and Hurt to be reliable contributors next season. I will not be surprised to see them and Jalen Johnson, based on his ranking coming in, to be players that K leans on the most. I think my surprise could come from any one of Steward, Roach, or Brakefield. To me, the player that has the chance to be the biggest surprise would be Mark Williams. It is very, very rare for a big man ranked outside of the top 10 to come in and make any sort of impact his freshman year at Duke. It's far more common that those players spend their freshman seasons as being largely ineffective and either start to make an impact in junior or senior seasons or not pan out at all. So if Mark Williams comes in and plays 10+ minutes while being a real factor defensively and on the boards then I will be very, very surprised. I'm not expecting it, but if it does happen then that will win my surprise award.

Goldwire will provide steady perimeter D as well as give us another ball handler on offense. Joey will give us the occasional big shooting games.

I don't see any way that Henry Coleman gets any sort of significant playing time in his freshman year beyond blowouts in November and December. For one thing we're already crowded at the combo forward position and his talent level is apparently well below the others. Maybe give him a couple seasons, if he is willing to wait that long.

[DevilYouKnow]

Dude. What’s your problem? If you don’t like this thread, don’t post here.

I understand quarantine is getting to everyone, but still...

I thought it was a fun, light hearted post.

[rsvman]

Based on this thread, they are all going to wear out their shoes between the scorers table and the foul circle going in and out.

Better than blowing out their shoes on the way down the lane (too soon?).

[Kedsy]

To me, the player that has the chance to be the biggest surprise would be Mark Williams. It is very, very rare for a big man ranked outside of the top 10 to come in and make any sort of impact his freshman year at Duke. It's far more common that those players spend their freshman seasons as being largely ineffective and either start to make an impact in junior or senior seasons or not pan out at all. So if Mark Williams comes in and plays 10+ minutes while being a real factor defensively and on the boards then I will be very, very surprised. I'm not expecting it, but if it does happen then that will win my surprise award.

It's hard to say exactly where Mark Williams will end up in the final RSCI. Certainly not top 10, my guess is around #25. With that in mind, here's a list of Duke big men freshmen since the RSCI was invented, ranked between 11 and 40 (I've put both centers and power forwards in this list; if you don't want to look at PFs, just pretend they're not there):



Year Player Rank mpg Behind
2000 Casey Sanders #16 4.2 Carlos Boozer, Shane Battier, Matt Christensen
2003 Shavlik Randolph #14 13.5 Shelden Williams, Casey Sanders
2003 Michael Thompson #30 1.9 Shelden Williams, Casey Sanders, Shavlik Randolph, Nick Horvath
2006 Eric Boateng #39 1.4 Shelden Williams, Josh McRoberts
2007 Lance Thomas #20 14.9 Josh McRoberts
2007 Brian Zoubek #25 7.3 Josh McRoberts, Lance Thomas
2010 Mason Plumlee #18 14.1 Brian Zoubek, Lance Thomas, Miles Plumlee
2010 Ryan Kelly #14 5.7 Brian Zoubek, Lance Thomas, Miles Plumlee, Mason Plumlee
2011 Josh Hairston #32 4.5 Mason Plumlee, Ryan Kelly, Miles Plumlee
2013 Amile Jefferson #21 11.4 Mason Plumlee, Ryan Kelly
2016 Chase Jeter #14 7.0 Marshall Plumlee, Amile Jefferson (for 9 games and then Brandon Ingram played PF)
2017 Marques Bolden #11 4.3 Amile Jefferson, Harry Giles, Chase Jeter
2017 Javin DeLaurier #35 2.1 Amile Jefferson, Harry Giles, Chase Jeter, Marques Bolden
2020 Matthew Hurt #12 20.5 Vernon Carey


(note the mpg include DNP-CDs as a game with 0 minutes)

So, first of all, there aren't so many guys outside the top 10 but inside the top 40 (only 14) and 5 of 14 (35.7%) played double-digit minutes (and speaking for myself, I wouldn't consider more than one-third to be "very, very rare"). If you narrow it to those ranked 11 to 30, then it's 5 out of 11 (45.5%), which is pretty close to a coin flip. But the most important variable here is probably who played ahead of the freshman big. For example, last season there wasn't really anybody who played Matthew Hurt's PF position, so he played 20+ mpg. Opportunity similarly allowed Shav Randolph and Lance Thomas to play 13+ mpg as freshmen. On the other hand, we couldn't really expect a freshman Michael Thompson to play very much when we also had Shelden Williams, Shavlik Randolph, senior Casey Sanders, and senior Nick Horvath on the roster.

Next season, we'll have three freshman bigs (Mark Williams, Jaemyn Brakefield, and Henry Coleman) and based on recruiting ranking, Williams is the best of them. Other than those guys, the only center on the roster will be Patrick Tape'. Now it's possible Tape' grabs the center spot and plays 25 or 30 minutes, and it's possible we'll go small with Matthew Hurt or Jalen Johnson primarily guarding the other team's center. The latter scenario makes some sense (and, personally, what I think will probably happen), since we have so many perimeter players (Jeremy Roach, Jordan Goldwire, DJ Steward, Wendell Moore, Joey Baker), along with Hurt and Johnson, so if we end up with an 8-man rotation it would logically contain just one center, and that could be Tape', in which case all three freshman bigs might be playing minimal minutes.

But if neither of the above scenarios play out (or even if one of them does but a freshman moves ahead of Tape' in the rotation), one of the freshmen bigs should play 15+ mpg. Again, based on ranking, Mark Williams should get the first shot at those minutes. And based on the roster and the relative recruiting rankings, that really shouldn't be such a huge surprise.

[Troublemaker]

I'm going with Matthew Hurt. ACC First team, 2nd team AA and ACCT MVP. Freshman POY will be Mr. Steward.

GoDuke!


I'm trying to figure out how both of these things could happen. Hurt would need a lot of PT and a lot of touches to be 2nd-team All-America. Steward would need lots of PT and lots of touches to be FOY (I'm assuming you mean ACC Freshman of the Year, not national Freshman of the Year)

Does Hurt play the 5? Does Steward play point? Can either Hurt or Steward reach those levels coming off the bench? Assuming the answer to those questions is no, then at least one of Wendell Moore and Jalen Johnson has to be behind Hurt and Steward in the rotation.

Or am I missing something?

Which of these scenarios do you find most likely?


Most of the Duke fans I know think Johnson will be Duke's best freshmen and he probably will but the title of the thread was "Who's your surprise player for the 2020-2021 season"? So that's why I picked Steward. If Johnson wins, it will not be a surprise for me. He's the highest rated freshmen and from all scouting reports he may be Duke's best player this season. Maybe I read the title of the thread wrong. I've surely been wrong plenty of times before. Just ask my wife.
GoDuke!

jv001, I love both of your surprise picks, and Mr Sumner doth protest too much, methinks*, for a "name your surprise player" thread, as you mentioned.

To put it simply, yes, for Hurt to be 2nd team AA and for Steward to be frosh POY, they would have to be the two best players on Duke's team. It's really not that far-fetched a scenario and comfortably fits into a "surprise" thread.

* I'm using this line the correct way, if anyone's wondering. I'm a fan of the Bard, too.

[Troublemaker]

Dude. What’s your problem? If you don’t like this thread, don’t post here.

I understand quarantine is getting to everyone, but still...


OK, since he's the last one, just to anger fdd further, I'm going with Mark Williams.

FDD - stop being so oversensitive, lol. Nothing Kedsy has posted in this thread indicates that he doesn't like this thread or is making fun of you or anyone else.

Also, you still owe me a case of beer for when Popovich lost three times (one an exhibition) in the 2019 FIBA championships. I'm never going to get paid, am I?

[elvis14]

Add me to the Wendell Moore list. Note that I didn't list Jalen or Jeremy because it won't be a surprise if they dominate. With Wendell, we have a guy who was't a one and done, had an up and down freshman season but IMHO showed a lot of promise on both ends of the floor. A years worth of growth with Duke's coaching staff can make a difference.

[Troublemaker]

Add me to the Wendell Moore list. Note that I didn't list Jalen or Jeremy because it won't be a surprise if they dominate. With Wendell, we have a guy who was't a one and done, had an up and down freshman season but IMHO showed a lot of promise on both ends of the floor. A years worth of growth with Duke's coaching staff can make a difference.

It would be very surprising for a #22-ranked recruit like Jeremy to dominate as a freshman. To a lesser extent, it would be somewhat surprising for the #11-ranked recruit like Jalen to dominate.

As for Wendell, it depends on what exactly you're predicting. I don't think anyone would be surprised if he's a good player next season; the defense will be there, and then a reasonable/modest amount of offensive improvement (say, going from a 93 offensive rating last season to a 105 next season) makes him "good."