2020-2021 Men's Basketball Schedule Speculation

[TywinBlue]

After reading the home page that Appalachian State will return to " the friendly confines" next season, I started thinking about what we know and don't know about next season's schedule. Hard as the ending to this season was, we have to listen to the poet Bob Seger and " turn the page:"

On November 25-27, Duke will play in the always ferocious Battle for Atlantis in the Bahamas.
While no bracket has been released as of yet, participants include a few who should be nationally ranked at the start of the season:Creighton, Ohio State and West Virginia. Also in the field:Memphis,Wichita State, Utah and Texas A&M.

Additionally our second year of an ACC 20 game conference schedule has us home and away with Kerolina;Wake; Georgia Tech; Louisville; Notre Dame and Pitt.
Home only with Boston College; Clemson;Syracuse and Virginia.
Away only at Florida State; Miami-Fla;NC State and Virginia Tech.

Because we will be facing Michigan State in the State Farm Tip Off (presumably)on Election Day, they will not be our opponent in the ACC-BIG TEN CHALLENGE. Probably not Ohio State either as we may face them in Atlantis.

Please correct any mistakes and add whatever facts or speculation you have.

[BlueDevil16]

Who does that leave for Big 10 ACC challenge? Iowa? Michigan?

[arnie]

Who does that leave for Big 10 ACC challenge? Iowa? Michigan?

Northwestern😀

[UrinalCake]

Who does that leave for Big 10 ACC challenge? Iowa? Michigan?

Michigan would be a fun matchup. Have we played them since Kyrie's team beat them in the Sweet 16? I can't recall playing them in Ann Arbor since Big Baby and Elton Brand faced off.

Purdue would be another good opponent, though I'm not sure how good they'll be next year.

We've played Indiana several times recently, I wouldn't be surprised if we got another game against them.

While we're on the subject of the ACC/B10 Challenge, does UNC get left out as the last place team in the conference? That would be hilarious.

[arnie]

Michigan would be a fun matchup. Have we played them since Kyrie's team beat them in the Sweet 16? I can't recall playing them in Ann Arbor since Big Baby and Elton Brand faced off.

Purdue would be another good opponent, though I'm not sure how good they'll be next year.

We've played Indiana several times recently, I wouldn't be surprised if we got another game against them.

While we're on the subject of the ACC/B10 Challenge, does UNC get left out as the last place team in the conference? That would be hilarious.

Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

After reading the home page that Appalachian State will return to " the friendly confines" next season, I started thinking about what we know and don't know about next season's schedule. Hard as the ending to this season was, we have to listen to the poet Bob Seger and " turn the page:"

On November 25-27, Duke will play in the always ferocious Battle for Atlantis in the Bahamas.
While no bracket has been released as of yet, participants include a few who should be nationally ranked at the start of the season:Creighton, Ohio State and West Virginia. Also in the field:Memphis,Wichita State, Utah and Texas A&M.

Additionally our second year of an ACC 20 game conference schedule has us home and away with Kerolina;Wake; Georgia Tech; Louisville; Notre Dame and Pitt.
Home only with Boston College; Clemson;Syracuse and Virginia.
Away only at Florida State; Miami-Fla;NC State and Virginia Tech.

Because we will be facing Michigan State in the State Farm Tip Off (presumably)on Election Day, they will not be our opponent in the ACC-BIG TEN CHALLENGE. Probably not Ohio State either as we may face them in Atlantis.

Please correct any mistakes and add whatever facts or speculation you have.

Duke-MSU game at Champions Classic is Tuesday, Nov 10, in Chicago.

[scottdude8]

It wouldn’t shock me if we face Michigan... and selfishly I hope it’s in Ann Arbor so I can go see it! But that would also make sense since we did host the Wolverines in Cameron back in 2013 (approximately).

I hope against hope we don’t play Iowa. Playing them is NOT fun. Playing Luke Garza will NOT be fun. Let’s avoid that physical nonsense of a game at all costs.

Could also be Wisconsin, who should be a preseason Top 25 team. Just hopefully not in the Trohl Center... they also owe us a return date from us going there in 2010!

[hallcity]

Let’s hope we have a 2020-21 season!

[brevity]

Who does that leave for Big 10 ACC challenge? Iowa? Michigan?

Now is as good a time as any to make a wild guess. I am going to assume three things:

1. The Big Ten opponent will be ranked. Based on generous early opinion (https://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?45051), the candidates are Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Rutgers, and Wisconsin.

2. The opponent will not appear or potentially appear elsewhere on Duke's schedule. This eliminates Michigan State (Champions Classic) and Ohio State (Battle 4 Atlantis) and leaves Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Purdue, Rutgers, and Wisconsin.

3. The opponent played at home in last year's Challenge. No way Duke gets two consecutive road games in the Challenge; the game will be at Cameron. So the opponent will probably be a team that played at home last year and is due a road game. This eliminates Iowa, Michigan, Rutgers, and Wisconsin and leaves Illinois, Indiana, and Purdue.

Well, that approach backfired. The matchups are set over the summer, and those may be the three teams on the list that are the least likely to be ranked in the preseason. Sticking with these assumptions, I think Illinois is probably the best positioned of the three, with Indiana a remote possibility based on name recognition. If we remove the last assumption -- the opponent will now play on the road two consecutive years -- that opens up the possibility of a more marquee matchup. Iowa, maybe.

Keep in mind that Virginia and Florida State also played road games last year, so that's the consensus Top 3 ACC teams all likely to play home games next season. Unless they don't.

[sagegrouse]

Duke-MSU game at Champions Classic is Tuesday, Nov 10, in Chicago.

Good! Election Day is Tuesday, November 3.

[TywinBlue]

Duke-MSU game at Champions Classic is Tuesday, Nov 10, in Chicago.

Thank you !

[duke2x]

This is the 2nd year of the ACC/B10 cycle. B10 teams that owe a road game include Purdue, IN, IL, MN, PSU, MSU, and yes, MD.

[Faustus]

Does Duke play at VT EVERY year? I swear it seems like we do.

[duke2x]

Does Duke play at VT EVERY year? I swear it seems like we do.

Thanks to the schedule changes, we drew 5 trips to VT in a row and haven't played a home-home with Clemson since 2010.

[BlueDevil2K]

According to this article:

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-proposing-new-scheduling-rules-for-college-basketball-next-season/

the rules regarding in-season tournaments may be changing (IMO, for the better). No more add-on games to game the system and get to a full complement of 31 regular season games.

This past year, the Empire Classic was really a 4-team tournament - Duke, Georgetown, Texas, and Cal. But in reality, the tournament was a convoluted mess of 16 games, structured as follows:

Central Arkansas played @ Duke and @ Georgetown
Georgia State played @ Duke and @ Georgetown
Prairie View A&M played @ Cal and @ Texas
Cal Baptist played @ Cal and @ Texas

Duke, Georgetown, Texas, and Cal had a 4-team tournament in MSG
Central Arkansas, Georgia State, Prairie View A&M, and Cal Baptist had a 4-team tournament in Riverside, CA

Why? Because each team was allowed to count the 4 tournament games as "1 game" with respect to the 28-game maximum. With 20 conference games, it was becoming increasingly inexcusable to lock up 1 or 2 of them with these pseudo-tournament games just to take advantage of this loophole.

By my count, Duke's schedule under the current rules would set up like this:

- 20 ACC games
- Champions Classic
- ACC/Big 10 Challenge
- 4 in-season tournament games
- 5 other games, often including one "home" game in NY

This rule change would result in that last group of games going to 6 (when playing in a 3-game tournament such as Maui or Atlantis) or 7 (when playing in a 2-game tournament such as the Empire Classic), allowing a bit more flexibility. Now, I don't expect Duke to fill those one or two extra slots with power conference opponents...but if this maybe results in us adding a school such as Davidson back onto the schedule every year, I'm all for it.

One other nice thing is that this might allow the schedule to become a bit more balanced. I'm guessing that it was a requirement that the on-campus games for a given tournament happen in close proximity on the calendar to the neutral site games, and that contributed to the burst of games in early/mid-November and the huge gaps between the ACC/Big 10 Challenge and New Year's. In 2016-17, would we really have started the season with home games on November 11 and 12 if they hadn't both been part of the Hall of Fame Tip-Off Classic? I suspect not...

[jv001]

Michigan would be a fun matchup. Have we played them since Kyrie's team beat them in the Sweet 16? I can't recall playing them in Ann Arbor since Big Baby and Elton Brand faced off.

Purdue would be another good opponent, though I'm not sure how good they'll be next year.

We've played Indiana several times recently, I wouldn't be surprised if we got another game against them.

While we're on the subject of the ACC/B10 Challenge, does UNC get left out as the last place team in the conference? That would be hilarious.

That settles it. No ACC basketball season this year. Swofford won't let his cheating tarheels be embarrassed that way. They're not called the cheats for no good reason.

GoDuke!

[duke2x]

One other nice thing is that this might allow the schedule to become a bit more balanced. I'm guessing that it was a requirement that the on-campus games for a given tournament happen in close proximity on the calendar to the neutral site games, and that contributed to the burst of games in early/mid-November and the huge gaps between the ACC/Big 10 Challenge and New Year's.

Good post, but too long to quote in full. I didn't read it that way. The maximum number of games stays at 31. I do agree we could choose to schedule Davidson instead of Central Arkansas next year. I'm not sure we will this coming year due to Covid-19 and the composition of the team.

The biggest reason that we frontload our schedule is Coach K's preference. In order to block out exams, and the longest December break possible, we only have 3 weeks in November and about 2 weeks in December to fit 11 games. You are correct about the early season tournaments, but you still have to play 2 games a week without fail. Atlantis might force you to play Sunday/Tuesday/Friday earlier to compensate for the 3 in 3 format. Fitting St. John's/Georgetown/Seton Hall into our ACC bye would also help.

[BlueDevil2K]

The biggest reason that we frontload our schedule is Coach K's preference. In order to block out exams, and the longest December break possible, we only have 3 weeks in November and about 2 weeks in December to fit 11 games. You are correct about the early season tournaments, but you still have to play 2 games a week without fail. Atlantis might force you to play Sunday/Tuesday/Friday earlier to compensate for the 3 in 3 format. Fitting St. John's/Georgetown/Seton Hall into our ACC bye would also help.

Agreed that it's still 31 games. I'm not sure that I agree that Coach K wants the longest December break possible. Here are the breaks from the past ten years:

2010-11: Dec 20-29
2011-12: Dec 19-30
2012-13: Dec 20-29
2013-14: Dec 19-28
2014-15: Dec 18-29
2015-16: Dec 19-28
2016-17: Dec 21-31
2017-18: Dec 20-30
2018-19: Dec 20-Jan 5
2019-20: Dec 19-28

It's held pretty steady at 9-11 days (mostly 9) other than two years ago when it was 16. What's changed is the number of games between December 7 and January 2 (inclusive):

2010-11: 5
2011-12: 5
2012-13: 5
2013-14: 4
2014-15: 4
2015-16: 5
2016-17: 4
2017-18: 3
2018-19: 3
2019-20: 3

I'll admit that I chose those dates somewhat arbitrarily, but I picked them first based on intuition (it feels like we play the first week of December, then stop, then pick up after the first couple of days of the new year) and filled in the data second.

If this proposal goes through, I guess we'll see how the replacements for the tournament games get distributed throughout the season...

[BlueDevil2K]

Actually, looking at the schedules more, Dec 11-Jan 1 (the last three weeks of the year through New Year's) is interesting as well:

2010-11 3 (12/11, 12/20, 12/29)
2011-12 3 (12/19, 12/30, 1/1)
2012-13 3 (12/19, 12/20, 12/29)
2013-14 4 (12/16, 12/19, 12/28, 12/31)
2014-15 4 (12/15, 12/18, 12/29, 12/31)
2015-16 4 (12/15, 12/19, 12/28, 12/30)
----
2016-17 3 (12/19, 12/21, 12/31*)
2017-18 2 (12/20, 12/30)
2018-19 2 (12/18, 12/20)
2019-20 3 (12/19, 12/28, 12/31*)

*ACC

There used to be 3-4 non-conference games during that stretch. For the past four seasons, it's dropped to 2 (plus an early ACC game some years). I'm hoping that we see one of the early games migrate back into that Dec 11-Jan 1 window thanks to the proposed rule change.

[Nugget]

Not Duke-related, but Kentucky released most of its non-con schedule today and Cal should be commended for agreeing to play Richmond (albeit what is surely going to be a one-shot deal at Rupp rather than a home and home) on Nov. 23.

If Richmond's guys who have declared for the NBA Draft come back as expected, they will have 5 Senior starters and should be ranked in the pre-season top 25.

[duke2x]

On November 25-27, Duke will play in the always ferocious Battle for Atlantis in the Bahamas.
While no bracket has been released as of yet, participants include a few who should be nationally ranked at the start of the season: Creighton, Ohio State and West Virginia. Also in the field: Memphis,Wichita State, Utah and Texas A&M...Please correct any mistakes and add whatever facts or speculation you have.

Duke has been understandably silent about opponents this year. Only 1 exhibition and App. State have been announced. With the changes to the academic year, Atlantis now immediately follows final exams and Cameron will resemble the holiday break for 1/2 the year (say 11/30-1/16 for 8 games.) This assumes, of course, games are played at all and with fans in the stands at all.

[hallcity]

Duke has been understandably silent about opponents this year. Only 1 exhibition and App. State have been announced. With the changes to the academic year, Atlantis now immediately follows final exams and Cameron will resemble the holiday break for 1/2 the year (say 11/30-1/16 for 8 games.) This assumes, of course, games are played at all and with fans in the stands at all.

I wonder about schedule adjustments. Does the season start earlier? Does it start later -- after exams? After exams makes more sense to me. Remember, you won't need an exam break in December. If you start the season on the Saturday before Thanksgiving, is there enough time to get all the games in? This is assuming the plan to have students back on campus this Fall works. I hope it can work.

[MarkD83]

Since the season is in flux, perhaps 2020-21 should be the relegation year. In a year with a shortened season the ACC should take the top 10 in the conference from 2019-20 and have them play a full round-robin. Only these 10 are eligible for the ACC tournament and NCAAs.

The bottom 5 can also play a round-robin but since they did not do well in 2019-20 they are relegated to the group that is not eligible.

Since there was a 3 way tie for 10th perhaps we can make it 12 in the "eligible" round-robin and 3 in the "ineligible" round robin. OK maybe that isn't fair to Pittsburgh so make this 14 and 1.

1 Florida State 16-4
2 Duke 15-5
2 Louisville 15-5
2 Virginia 15-5
5 Georgia Tech 11-9
6 Notre Dame 10-10
6 North Carolina State 10-10
6 Syracuse 10-10
9 Clemson 9-11
10 Virginia Tech
10 Miami (FL) 7-13
10 Boston College 7-13
13 Pittsburgh 6-14
13 Wake Forest 6-14
13 North Carolina 6-14

[DU82]

Since the season is in flux, perhaps 2020-21 should be the relegation year. In a year with a shortened season the ACC should take the top 10 in the conference from 2019-20 and have them play a full round-robin. Only these 10 are eligible for the ACC tournament and NCAAs.

The bottom 5 can also play a round-robin but since they did not do well in 2019-20 they are relegated to the group that is not eligible.

Since there was a 3 way tie for 10th perhaps we can make it 12 in the "eligible" round-robin and 3 in the "ineligible" round robin. OK maybe that isn't fair to Pittsburgh so make this 14 and 1.

1 Florida State 16-4
2 Duke 15-5
2 Louisville 15-5
2 Virginia 15-5
5 Georgia Tech 11-9
6 Notre Dame 10-10
6 North Carolina State 10-10
6 Syracuse 10-10
9 Clemson 9-11
10 Virginia Tech
10 Miami (FL) 7-13
10 Boston College 7-13
13 Pittsburgh 6-14
13 Wake Forest 6-14
13 North Carolina 6-14

Since we now play a 20 game conference schedule, eleven teams would fit. (ten teams home-away. Other than the bottom team, you can't beat yourself.)

[Indoor66]

Since we now play a 20 game conference schedule, eleven teams would fit. (ten teams home-away. Other than the bottom team, you can't beat yourself.)

Unless you are unCheat.

[DU82]

Duke has been understandably silent about opponents this year. Only 1 exhibition and App. State have been announced. With the changes to the academic year, Atlantis now immediately follows final exams and Cameron will resemble the holiday break for 1/2 the year (say 11/30-1/16 for 8 games.) This assumes, of course, games are played at all and with fans in the stands at all.

My hunch is that we won't play in the Bahamas this year. Don't see the team traveling out of the country, even just to Nassau.

[DU82]

Unless you are unCheat.

That would be the bottom team.

[Natty_B]

i'm moving this back from the hinterpages because schedule stuff is about to heat up and get weird.

To start with Seth Davis is reporting the Battle 4 Atlantis is going to take place in South Dakota??

https://theathletic.com/2070863/2020/09/16/college-basketball-finally-has-a-start-date-now-its-about-to-get-weird/

Will be fascinating (in a slightly morbid) way to see how this all shakes out.