Who Stays - Who Goes

[BigZ]

I didn’t think I’d make this thread on March 12th but here we are.

I think it’s safe to say Vernon will be leaving for the NBA. There have been numerous discussions each year of a lottery pick staying but they always leave as they should.

Had their been a ACC and NCAA tournament I think Tre would have been a near guaranteed guy to go to the NBA, now I’m thinking it’s 50/50 that he stays or leaves.

Stanley should probably stay bc I don’t think he is ready but he is a better prospect than other guys who lest earlier in recent years like Trent Jr.

Hurt and Moore probably fall into the second round if they leave early and I think they stay

[BlueDevilTommy]

Vernon, Tre and Cassius will leave. Probably.

[uh_no]

hurt stays, Moore probably, Cassius unlikely, tre and Carey no chance.

[chrishoke]

Vernon, Tre and Cassius will leave. Probably.

Agreed.

[mattman91]

hurt stays, Moore probably, Cassius unlikely, tre and Carey no chance.

This, but I think Cassius is closer to the no chance category.

[bundabergdevil]

No chance the loss of playing in the spectacle of March Madness weighs on these guys? The year at Duke they've got but they got robbed of March Madness. Hopes and dreams? Probably...

[fuse]

Gone:
Carey, Tre, Cassius

Staying:
Hurt, Moore

[JasonEvans]

With the caveat that the insane way the season ended could impact some of these guys to maybe stay and try to some extra glory, I would rate it like this:

Carey 100%
Tre 90%
Cassius 90%
Hurt 40%
Moore 30%

[Acymetric]

Really? You guys are crazy, Moore is way more likely to go than Hurt.

[mattman91]

Really? You guys are crazy, Moore is way more likely to go than Hurt.

I wouldn't disagree with you...he has more potential. That being said, he's obviously not ready.

[sagegrouse]

Really? You guys are crazy, Moore is way more likely to go than Hurt.

Moore is a year away from being a Justise-type talent; leave now, and he may face a Duval future. He should return.

I don't think Cassius is ready either. Yeah, I know -- he's old. But so what -- he doesn't attack the basket, and he is lacking basic shooting guard skills -- except running the break and shooting.

Hurt didn't show what he is capable of this year and would benefit from a return, but in a way he is more skilled than Wendell. I hope he returns.

[Acymetric]

I wouldn't disagree with you...he has more potential. That being said, he's obviously not ready.

NBA loves reaching for potential. I think Moore is gone.

[simplyluvin]

Cassius coming back would be a dream at this point. He would be All-ACC next year and likely a star if he makes the sophomore jump. Add that to next year's class not really having a true 2 guard (maybe DJ), and he would be in position for a huge year. Honestly, Tre too, and it's a pipe dream, but I hold out a tiny bit of hope that Tre's burning desire to match his brother's legacy with a title would bring him back.

I haven't seen many boards that have Hurt or Moore with even a 2nd round grade, but that hasn't stopped some of our guys in the past.

[proelitedota]

Tre is not leaving.

Come on guys.

[roywhite]

Wendell is IMO a good long-term pro prospect but not ready yet; he needs to shoot and handle better.

He's also young -- doesn't turn 19 until September; according to wiki, he was born 9/18/2001 (a week after 9/11, making many of us feel even older).

No inside info, but I'll guess he returns (and becomes a high level ACC player).

[Barnstormer]

What makes you think there will be sporting events this fall or even next year? The likelihood of finding a cure within 12 months and test it is very small. Everyone is acting like this is short term, but I don't see it being resolved by years end.

[Troublemaker]

Tre - 100%
Vernon - 90%
Cassius - 50%
Matthew - 10%
Wendell - 10%

With Cassius, I've always felt that his age was an indicator for *staying*, as if the guy is in no rush.

[miramar]

I've been looking at some mock drafts, and this could be the year that Duke is out of the lottery.

Vernon is a back-to-the-basket center and there are some concerns about his defense, so he is typically listed as a middle to late first rounder.

There doesn't seem to be a consensus about Tre. He is typically a late first rounder, but I have also seen him the second.

Cassius is always listed in the second round, which used to mean that the player would come back, but this is 2020 so who knows.

As simplyluvin says, Hurt and Moore don't make the mock second round, so I hope they return.

[duke96]

Really? You guys are crazy, Moore is way more likely to go than Hurt.

Which would Hurt Moore?

[Native]

What really intrigues me about this whole situation is: how is the pre-draft process impacted? If players can't get the same information that they normally would and Draft day remains unmoved — you'd see a lot of guys making decisions with imperfect information, whether they choose to stay or leave.

[sagegrouse]

NBA loves reaching for potential. I think Moore is gone.

If the NBA is looking for "potential," why do the draft gurus, who talk to NBA scouts, not even list him in the second round?

[dukelifer]

What makes you think there will be sporting events this fall or even next year? The likelihood of finding a cure within 12 months and test it is very small. Everyone is acting like this is short term, but I don't see it being resolved by years end.

Definitely not clear- but a therapy (not a cure) is possible by summer. There were a number of drugs in the pipeline for other viruses. Some smart folks out there.

[jimmymax]

Wait, where would Hurt and Moore go?

[BlueDevil16]

Wait, where would Hurt and Moore go?

G-league

[kAzE]

Moore is a year away from being a Justise-type talent

IMO, that's a bit of a stretch . . . Justise was already a very good playmaker as a freshman at Duke, and an all-America level defender. Wendell may resemble Justise physically, but talent-wise, Justise is just on a completely different level. He was killing it as a starting POINT GUARD for the Heat before his latest injury. I would envision Wendell as more of a rotation guy in the league, while Justise at full health has, at the bare minimum, starter level talent, and potential for much more.

But at the same time, I sort of agree that Wendell is more likely to go pro than Hurt based on his/his family's quotes from before this season. He fully expected to be a OAD player. I'm sure Hurt did as well, but was much less outwardly demonstrative of it. But neither of them has any business going pro yet.

[proelitedota]

Is there any indication that Tre Jones is leaving? Everyone seems to put that as a certainty.

[Tooold]

Is there any indication that Tre Jones is leaving? Everyone seems to put that as a certainty.

K as much as said that after the UNc game...something to the effect of “Tre’s last game in Cameron”

[Troublemaker]

Is there any indication that Tre Jones is leaving? Everyone seems to put that as a certainty.


K as much as said that after the UNc game...something to the effect of “Tre’s last game in Cameron”

Yes, on the radio broadcast, in the traditional postgame locker room interview segment with Coach, he said that it wasn't just the seniors' final game in Cameron but also Tre's.

Also, we already have 3 point guards next season in JGold, Roach, and Steward. And our centerpiece recruit in Jalen Johnson is a guy that loves to play PG. We've recruited to Tre's departure.


IMO, that's a bit of a stretch . . . Justise was already a very good playmaker as a freshman at Duke, and an all-America level defender. Wendell may resemble Justise physically, but talent-wise, Justise is just on a completely different level. He was killing it as a starting POINT GUARD for the Heat before his latest injury. I would envision Wendell as more of a rotation guy in the league, while Justise at full health has, at the bare minimum, starter level talent, and potential for much more.

But at the same time, I sort of agree that Wendell is more likely to go pro than Hurt based on his/his family's quotes from before this season. He fully expected to be a OAD player. I'm sure Hurt did as well, but was much less outwardly demonstrative of it. But neither of them has any business going pro yet.

The biggest difference (but not the only difference) is that Justise was much more athletic.

I do expect improved decision-making and a fairly big frosh-to-soph jump for Wendell next season.

[Jaks19]

Winslow was bigger and much stronger than Moore, and a better 3pt shooter let in his FR season. I would hope that a 6-5/6-6 Moore doesn't get to 225/230.

I could see how they both could do many things in the court which might give them some comparisons but I think it ends there.

Moore, if he returns, could be the team man-to-man defendive stopper so to speak and he will contribute offensively> If i had to guess he could average around 10pts per game.

[budwom]

The phantom 6-6 Stanley is probably more appealing than the real 6-3 Stanley...having said that, anyone can go these days..but I do agree Moore, while having an NBA body, does precious few things well (e.g. handle, shooting) other than defending.
He may well go, but he'll be riding buses.

[NYBri]

Everything has changed, and I don’t believe just in the short term. The NBA Is part of that. We have no idea what the business of basketball will look like this spring, summer next year or five years from now. The college game will change as well, if there even is a game, and it remains to be seen how they fit together in what will become the eventual new normal.

This senior class is in limbo. Hard to say how it will effect individual players. Who knows. If, for example, there is no basketball for another year or so, these guys may opt to stay in school to get a degree, if there is a “school.”

Like I said, everything has changed.

[Jaks19]

Stanley's athleticism and competitiveness will sure draw the eyes of some NBA teams, and they will watch to see how he shoots the ball. This year he was a surprise because not only did he come in late, but he earned a starting spot as a 4 star and had some great games. With that said, his season was not consistent but will NBA scouts see that as a thing that NBA teams can develop. He for sure checks the boxes for athleticism and potential. IMO, why not declare. See what happens and make a decision. I do feel, he leaves.

Moore is athletic too but not to the Stanley level. Who knows what anyone might be saying about Moore if he didn't miss all of the games because of the injury. If he can knock down shots and be better with the ball, even a little bit better than this year, he is going to be very good next year. Moore on the 2020-2021 roster with all of those players, I think will allow him to be seen. If, and its a big if, Hurt comes back, I am guessing that K might tinker with a line up of Williams, Hurt, Johnson, Moore and Roach.

[Jaks19]

This is from NBA Draftroom.

L.J.'s 2020 NBA Draft Prospect Rankings (March Edition)
1.Cole Anthony/PG/North Carolina Tar Heels
2.Anthony Edwards/SG/Georgia Bulldogs
3.James Wiseman/C/Memphis Tigers
4.RJ Hampton/CG/New Zealand Breakers
5.LaMelo Ball/PG/Illawarra Hawks
6.Obi Toppin/PF/Dayton Flyers
7.Deni Avdija/SF/Israel
8.Saddiq Bey/SF/Villanova Wildcats
9.Isaac Okoro/SF/Auburn Tigers
10.Vernon Carey/PF-C/Duke Blue Devils
11.Tyrese Haliburton/PG/Iowa State Cyclones
12.Jalen Smith/PF/Maryland Terrapins
13.Onyeka Okongwu/PF/USC Trojans
14.Isaiah Stewart/C/Washington Huskies
15.Markus Howard/PG/Marquette Golden Eagles
16.Jahmius Ramsey/SF/Texas Tech Red Raiders
17.Tre Jones/PG/Duke Blue Devils
18.Immanuel Quickley/CG/Kentucky Wildcats
19.Precious Achiuwa/PF/Memphis Tigers
20.Daniel Oturu/C/Minnesota Golden Gophers
21.Myles Powell/SG/Seton Hall Pirates
22.Jordan Nwora/SF/Louisville Cardinals
23.Devon Dotson/PG/Kansas Jayhawks
24.Tyrese Maxey/CG/Kentucky Wildcats
25.Josh Green/SG/Arizona Wildcats
26.Aaron Nesmith/SF/Michigan State Spartans
27.Nico Mannion/PG/Arizona Wildcats
28.Cassius Stanley/SG/Duke Blue Devils
29.Makur Maker/PF-C/High School(Pacific Academy, CA)
30.Aleksej Pokusevski/PF/Serbia
31.Reggie Perry/PF/Mississippi State Bulldogs
32.Killian Hayes/PG/France
33.Matthew Hurt/PF/Duke Blue Devils
34.Luka Garza/PF/Iowa Hawkeyes
35.Kira Lewis jr./PG/Alabama Crimson Tide
36.Jaden McDaniels/PF/Washington Huskies
37.Lamar Stevens/SF/Penn State Nittany Lions
38.Theo Maledon/PG/France
39.Cassius Winston/PG/Michigan State Spartans
40.Zeke Nnaji/C-PF/Arizona Wildcats
41.Kaleb Wesson/PF/Ohio State Buckeyes
42.Ashtan Hagans/PG/Kentucky Wildcats
43.Amar Sylla/PF/Senegal
44.Nick Richards/C/Kentucky Wildcats
45.Payton Pritchard/PG/Oregon Ducks
46.Devin Vassell/SF/Florida State Seminoles
47.Udoka Azubuike/C/Kansas Jayhawks
48.Tyler Bey/SF/Colorado Buffaloes
49.Malachi Flynn/PG/San Diego State Aztecs
50.Leandro Balmoro/SG/Barcelona

[moonpie23]

Tre is not leaving.

Come on guys.

this...after seeing how tyus struggled to stay in the league, tre is not going to top tyus's hype.


also, i'll be leaving college sports if cole anthony goes first in the draft...

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

This is from NBA Draftroom.

L.J.'s 2020 NBA Draft Prospect Rankings (March Edition)
1.Cole Anthony/PG/North Carolina Tar Heels
2.Anthony Edwards/SG/Georgia Bulldogs
3.James Wiseman/C/Memphis Tigers
4.RJ Hampton/CG/New Zealand Breakers
5.LaMelo Ball/PG/Illawarra Hawks
6.Obi Toppin/PF/Dayton Flyers
7.Deni Avdija/SF/Israel
8.Saddiq Bey/SF/Villanova Wildcats
9.Isaac Okoro/SF/Auburn Tigers
10.Vernon Carey/PF-C/Duke Blue Devils
11.Tyrese Haliburton/PG/Iowa State Cyclones
12.Jalen Smith/PF/Maryland Terrapins
13.Onyeka Okongwu/PF/USC Trojans
14.Isaiah Stewart/C/Washington Huskies
15.Markus Howard/PG/Marquette Golden Eagles
16.Jahmius Ramsey/SF/Texas Tech Red Raiders
17.Tre Jones/PG/Duke Blue Devils
18.Immanuel Quickley/CG/Kentucky Wildcats
19.Precious Achiuwa/PF/Memphis Tigers
20.Daniel Oturu/C/Minnesota Golden Gophers
21.Myles Powell/SG/Seton Hall Pirates
22.Jordan Nwora/SF/Louisville Cardinals
23.Devon Dotson/PG/Kansas Jayhawks
24.Tyrese Maxey/CG/Kentucky Wildcats
25.Josh Green/SG/Arizona Wildcats
26.Aaron Nesmith/SF/Michigan State Spartans
27.Nico Mannion/PG/Arizona Wildcats
28.Cassius Stanley/SG/Duke Blue Devils
29.Makur Maker/PF-C/High School(Pacific Academy, CA)
30.Aleksej Pokusevski/PF/Serbia
31.Reggie Perry/PF/Mississippi State Bulldogs
32.Killian Hayes/PG/France
33.Matthew Hurt/PF/Duke Blue Devils
34.Luka Garza/PF/Iowa Hawkeyes
35.Kira Lewis jr./PG/Alabama Crimson Tide
36.Jaden McDaniels/PF/Washington Huskies
37.Lamar Stevens/SF/Penn State Nittany Lions
38.Theo Maledon/PG/France
39.Cassius Winston/PG/Michigan State Spartans
40.Zeke Nnaji/C-PF/Arizona Wildcats
41.Kaleb Wesson/PF/Ohio State Buckeyes
42.Ashtan Hagans/PG/Kentucky Wildcats
43.Amar Sylla/PF/Senegal
44.Nick Richards/C/Kentucky Wildcats
45.Payton Pritchard/PG/Oregon Ducks
46.Devin Vassell/SF/Florida State Seminoles
47.Udoka Azubuike/C/Kansas Jayhawks
48.Tyler Bey/SF/Colorado Buffaloes
49.Malachi Flynn/PG/San Diego State Aztecs
50.Leandro Balmoro/SG/Barcelona

Cole at #1? Holy smokes, what did they see that I missed?

[budwom]

Cole at #1? Holy smokes, what did they see that I missed?

yeah, if that proves to be true, this is a far, far weaker class than I thought...

[scottdude8]

From the sound of it, the idea of seniors getting extended eligibility is not a pie-in-the-sky idea (https://therookiewire.usatoday.com/2020/03/12/multiple-coaches-considering-granting-senior-players-an-extra-season-of-eligibility/). Personally, I think this would be not only the kind, but logical thing for the NCAA to do... which means it probably won't happen.

That said, if it does, it throws EVERYTHING into flux, not just for Duke but everyone across the country. Do all teams want their seniors back if they've planned for a future without them? Would this shift correspond with some sort of increase in scholarships for a year, or would teams have to somehow choose between their seniors and their incoming freshmen? Would freshmen who expect to play right away want to explore their options if a senior at their position were to come back? There are so many darn unknowns at this point.

Before yesterday, I would've agreed with everyone about Tre and Vernon being 99% gone, Cassius being mostly gone, and Hurt and Moore returning. I think that would've left us with a pretty solid core for next year... there's every reason to think Hurt and Moore could take big leaps between their freshmen and sophomore years (just like Tre did), and that could lead to them more closely realizing the sky-high expectations we had for them. A team with them two at the core, alongside a projected lottery pick in Jalen Johnson, would be a pretty insane 2-4 in the starting lineup, with JG likely providing a stabilizing force as a senior PG (and a potential "bridge" while Roach gets up to speed with the college game). The 5 would be a question mark, but that wouldn't be as much of a glaring issue in modern college basketball as it would've been 10 years ago.

Now? Who the heck knows? We know how much Tre loves Duke. Can he really stomach his career ending like this? This team as a whole seemed so close (which is part of why I loved them, even amidst the mid-season skid)... if the opportunity arose, would they want to try and run it back together? If JRob got a chance to come back and continue his growth, could we possibly say no to that?

So many unknowns. And so much time to speculate! Man this is weird.

[dyedwab]

It goes without saying that we are entering this off-season, pre-draft period with more unknowns than ever, which suggests that some things we are used to looking at are gonna change. For example,

1) Adam Silver suggests that if the NBA resumes the season after a month long or six week hiatus, that the finals could be played in mid to late July. Obviously, this would push back every date on the NBA calendar, including declaration dates, draft dates, etc. And it may push the draft close to or after the beginning of the college academic year, which might be a new factor to influence players. https://sports.yahoo.com/commissioner-adam-silver-says-nba-005522242.html

2) Schools - Who knows when the colleges reopen campuses to students, or when the university decides to resume intercollegiate competition. This changes summer plans for players who, for example, might be taking extra classes to complete their eligibility earlier, or other academic changes that effect eligibility

3) Waiver for seniors - With athletic seasons being cut short or eliminated, there is likely to be discussion of waivers for an extra year for senior athletes. We know nothing about this yet, whether it's even possible, how it would effect rosters, whether basketball would even be on the list of sports eligible for waivers if they were granted, etc. But this could change both the shape AND size of rosters in unpredictable ways.

This time of year is always about information gathering and uncertainty. This year we have a lot more uncertainty and a lot less information (What do teams really think of Moore/Stanley/Hurt's NBA potential, which of these players staying another year will improve their stock enough to warrant them staying).

Right now, we are in a situation where everything changes everything and we really don't know what we don't know.

[camion]

Cole at #1? Holy smokes, what did they see that I missed?

Potential.

Also he led the Heels to the best last place finish ever in the ACC. :)

[phaedrus]

this...after seeing how tyus struggled to stay in the league, tre is not going to top tyus's hype.


also, i'll be leaving college sports if cole anthony goes first in the draft...

Tyus has been a career back-up, but he hasn't struggled to stay in the league. The Wolves picked up the team option for his fourth season - without really any speculation that they would do otherwise - and then Memphis signed him to a 3-year, $26M deal a few days after he became an unrestricted free agent for the first time.

[budwom]

this...after seeing how tyus struggled to stay in the league, tre is not going to top tyus's hype.


also, i'll be leaving college sports if cole anthony goes first in the draft...

say what? Tyus worked thru his $6 million initial contract, then signed for $26 million with the Grizz...and he had other offers...

[JasonEvans]

It is worth pointing out that the NBA combine and draft camps may not happen in the current environment, making it even more difficult for players and teams to get info about who fits where in the draft process. It could severely muddy the waters and make decisions even more difficult.

That said, I expect teams to find safe ways to get measurements on players and stage workouts in a reasonably safe way. Also worth noting that it is entirely possible that the virus may start to ease before NBA draft decisions must be made... I hope!

[budwom]

It is worth pointing out that the NBA combine and draft camps may not happen in the current environment, making it even more difficult for players and teams to get info about who fits where in the draft process. It could severely muddy the waters and make decisions even more difficult.

That said, I expect teams to find safe ways to get measurements on players and stage workouts in a reasonably safe way. Also worth noting that it is entirely possible that the virus may start to ease before NBA draft decisions must be made... I hope!

and I would imagine that our man Adam Silver has the power to delay the draft if that is required.

[uh_no]

and I would imagine that our man Adam Silver has the power to delay the draft if that is required.

i wonder how much a hand he had in the degree of response duke had. By all accounts, duke was on the forefront of cancelling the season, and it came the night after the NBA cancelled theirs.

[nmduke2001]

What makes you think there will be sporting events this fall or even next year? The likelihood of finding a cure within 12 months and test it is very small. Everyone is acting like this is short term, but I don't see it being resolved by years end.

Yesterday, Brian Windhorst reported that China is planning on resuming the Chinese pro basketball league in April. Their first case was December 1, if I remember correctly.

[UrinalCake]

Prior to the cancellations, I had envisioned a path where Stanley broke out in the tournament and helped lead the team to a Final Four run, hitting threes and throwing down crazy dunks and scoring 18ppg. Such a run would have boosted his draft stock to borderline lottery, and he'd be 100% gone. Without such opportunity, NBA teams will be forced to rely on what they've seen from him in the regular season which is a great athlete, inconsistent shooter who often disappears in games. I think the late-first round projections are accurate. If the combine happens he'll look great and he would receive a boost. But overall I think Gary Trent is a good comparison for where he fits in the draft (not in terms of playing style obviously). He's 90% gone, but as they say, there's always a chance....

As for seniors getting an extra year, I would think the NCAA would also have to award an additional scholarship or two to each team in order to make that feasible. I think it's highly unlikely, but if it happened then it would certainly be great to have JRob and/or Javin back for another year given our hole at center. White would struggle to earn playing time.

[Stray Gator]

. . . As for seniors getting an extra year, I would think the NCAA would also have to award an additional scholarship or two to each team in order to make that feasible. I think it's highly unlikely, but if it happened then it would certainly be great to have JRob and/or Javin back for another year given our hole at center. White would struggle to earn playing time.

If such an extension of eligibility is implemented, I think that a simple solution, easily and uniformly applicable, would be to declare that those seniors who elect to return will not be counted against the normal scholarship limits.

[nmduke2001]

If such an extension of eligibility is implemented, I think that a simple solution, easily and uniformly applicable, would be to declare that those seniors who elect to return will not be counted against the normal scholarship limits.

I don't see how the NCAA could allow basketball seniors back. The vast majority of teams had already finished their season by the time the tournament was canceled. What if UNC had a Tyler Hansbrough type player that was a senior. He would have literally played out his entire senior year and then get a 5th year?

[richardjackson199]

I don't see how the NCAA could allow basketball seniors back. The vast majority of teams had already finished their season by the time the tournament was canceled. What if UNC had a Tyler Hansbrough type player that was a senior. He would have literally played out his entire senior year and then get a 5th year?

Maybe game after game, we can watch Brandon Robinson flopping all over the court and writhing in pain on the floor again next year, only to come running out of the locker room again to save the day.

[budwom]

i wonder how much a hand he had in the degree of response duke had. By all accounts, duke was on the forefront of cancelling the season, and it came the night after the NBA cancelled theirs.

Indeed, he was the guiding hand behind our rather draconian (i.e. more restrictive than many other venues) Wallace Wade security protocol...it did seem to me, however, that the Cancellation Express was hurtling down the track yesterday with or without his input...only nitwit Swofford lagged behind other commissioners, I guess he had to await direction from Chapel Hill.

[scottdude8]

That said, I expect teams to find safe ways to get measurements on players and stage workouts in a reasonably safe way. Also worth noting that it is entirely possible that the virus may start to ease before NBA draft decisions must be made... I hope!

As much as the last couple days have sucked, the hard choices that have been made make this within the realm of possibility. That's why I think so many college coaches were frustrated by the pure cancellation of the tourney as opposed to a delay... it's possible that by taking all these preventative measures now we can "flatten the curve" so that life can return to normal sooner rather than later. But so much is unknown. All we have as examples are other countries that have experienced this. You mentioned China as one, but remember they have a massively superior testing apparatus (not to mention their, ahem, "different" style of government makes it easier to implement harsh measures to stop the virus' spread). A couple months may be the best case scenario, but it's now a possible best case scenario as opposed to an outlandish one.

[dukelifer]

this...after seeing how tyus struggled to stay in the league, tre is not going to top tyus's hype.


also, i'll be leaving college sports if cole anthony goes first in the draft...

Most college players would love to endure Tyus’s struggles and new $28M guaranteed contract. It is a hard life ;) Now Trevon’s situation is much different. That is a real struggle for a kid that left too early.

[JNort]

Is there any indication that Tre Jones is leaving? Everyone seems to put that as a certainty.

The only thing he had to prove was that his shooting would get better and he proved that. While his athleticism and potential will keep him from being drafted high, he will still be drafted and most likely in the 1st rd. Every team in the league could use a backup pg who makes great passes, plays smart, doesn't turn the ball over, plays intense defense and can hit an open 3.

Stanley probably wouldn't be drafted or drafted in a spot to make it worth it buuut I'm guessing he will test amazingly at the combine and leave too.

Only other person who might leave is Carey.

[sagegrouse]

Moore is a year away from being a Justise-type talent; leave now, and he may face a Duval future. He should return.

I don't think Cassius is ready either. Yeah, I know -- he's old. But so what -- he doesn't attack the basket, and he is lacking basic shooting guard skills -- except running the break and shooting.

Hurt didn't show what he is capable of this year and would benefit from a return, but in a way he is more skilled than Wendell. I hope he returns.


NBA loves reaching for potential. I think Moore is gone.


If the NBA is looking for "potential," why do the draft gurus, who talk to NBA scouts, not even list him in the second round?


IMO, that's a bit of a stretch . . . Justise was already a very good playmaker as a freshman at Duke, and an all-America level defender. Wendell may resemble Justise physically, but talent-wise, Justise is just on a completely different level. He was killing it as a starting POINT GUARD for the Heat before his latest injury. I would envision Wendell as more of a rotation guy in the league, while Justise at full health has, at the bare minimum, starter level talent, and potential for much more.

But at the same time, I sort of agree that Wendell is more likely to go pro than Hurt based on his/his family's quotes from before this season. He fully expected to be a OAD player. I'm sure Hurt did as well, but was much less outwardly demonstrative of it. But neither of them has any business going pro yet.

You are probably right given that Justise was a #10 pick and has had a meteoric career (I am tempted to say, as in, "now you see it, now you don't"), and Wendell won't be drafted as a freshman. Wendell OTOH has the physique, as you mention, but also has the swagger, and as the season developed, serious defensive skills.

Wendell needs a much better handle, and that's one of the things that can be learned -- next season at Duke, I hope. He also needs to score and shoot better. His shooting stats are uneven -- 0.416, 0.211, 0.806 -- but his FT shooting was the best on the team (not counting Joey's 11/12), so there's hope. And he -- and much of this team -- needed to do a better job of finishing around the basket.

[Reddevil]

Which would Hurt Moore?

Tre bien and Carey on.

[Rickshaw]

I don't see how the NCAA could allow basketball seniors back. The vast majority of teams had already finished their season by the time the tournament was canceled. What if UNC had a Tyler Hansbrough type player that was a senior. He would have literally played out his entire senior year and then get a 5th year?

I agree with this. I liken it to a senior who is injured during the last month of the season
And cannot play ( this situation is obviously different, however similar). The injured player does not get an extra year of eligibility, possibly taking a freshman’s spot . A shortened season is unfortunate . Have to work through it without revamping the whole system.

[Troublemaker]

Cole at #1? Holy smokes, what did they see that I missed?


yeah, if that proves to be true, this is a far, far weaker class than I thought...

It's unrealistic. It basically would mean NBA teams put 100% of the blame on Roy's habitual inability to get top-15 high school players to perform at a high level like Coach K usually does.

But, I think most NBA teams will lay the blame as 80% Roy, 20% Cole is overrated. And thus, he'll drop out of the top 5.

[proelitedota]

K as much as said that after the UNc game...something to the effect of “Tre’s last game in Cameron”

Welp.

Hoping something miraculous happens then.

[soflabluedevil]

If such an extension of eligibility is implemented, I think that a simple solution, easily and uniformly applicable, would be to declare that those seniors who elect to return will not be counted against the normal scholarship limits.

Portal would be loaded with kids looking to go where they could play right away instead of sit and watch xtra yr srs.

[Jaks19]

I agree that Tre, Carey and Stanley are gone.
However, I tend to believe that Hurt will too.
Moore on the other hand, I feel will come back

[atoomer0881]

I agree with this. I liken it to a senior who is injured during the last month of the season
And cannot play ( this situation is obviously different, however similar). The injured player does not get an extra year of eligibility, possibly taking a freshman’s spot . A shortened season is unfortunate . Have to work through it without revamping the whole system.

Except in this situation, it would be likened to EVERY single senior on EVERY single team being injured during the last month of the season. I'd say nothing that is going on right now can be likened to anything. This is literally unprecedented. So any response would have to be unprecedented too.


K as much as said that after the UNc game...something to the effect of “Tre’s last game in Cameron”

Except this was said before any of this happened and before Tre knew he had a 0% chance of continuing Tyus's legacy towards winning a national championship. He might still be gone. But I wouldn't put any credence into anything that was said before this unprecedented situation occurred.

[Truth&Justise]

I'll point out that there is already a whole thread tracking draft projections for Duke players:

Tracking 2020 Draft Projections (https://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?43862-Tracking-2020-Draft-Projections)

But it's always worth periodically checking in on different mock draft boards. Take them with a grain of salt (some are a bit outdated) and I make no claims about the accuracy of any particular site, but here you go:

NbaDraft.Net (https://www.nbadraft.net/nba-mock-drafts/)
12. Vernon Carey
36. Cassius Stanely
51. Tre Jones
(2021 Mock Draft (https://www.nbadraft.net/nba-mock-drafts/?year-mock=2021) has Jalen Johnson #5 & Wendell Moore #9)

ESPN (https://www.espn.com/nba/draft/bestavailable/_/position/ovr/page/2)
28. Vernon Carey
33. Tre Jones
50. Cassius Stanley

SportsIllustrated (https://www.si.com/nba/2020/01/07/nba-mock-draft-anthony-edwards-lamelo-ball-james-wiseman)
21. Vernon Carey
(No second round projected)

CBS (https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/2020-nba-mock-draft-james-wiseman-anthony-edwards-and-lamelo-ball-are-top-three-selections/)
22. Tre Jones
26. Vernon Carey
(No second round projected)

NBC Sports (https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/wizards/2020-nba-mock-draft-60-post-trade-deadline-edition#slide-31)
24. Tre Jones
27. Vernon Carey
(No second round projected)

A Recent Bleacher Report Mock (https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2880541-nba-draft-2020-latest-1st-round-order-and-mock-predictions)
27. Tre Jones
(No second round projected)

SportsNaut (https://sportsnaut.com/2020/03/2020-nba-mock-draft/)
14. Vernon Carey
18. Cassius Stanley
30. Tre Jones

A Recent Fansided Mock (https://fansided.com/2020/03/10/2020-nba-mock-draft-lamelo-ball-warriors-boost/)
22. Tre Jones
28. Vernon Carey
(No second round projected)

Make of these what you will.

[MChambers]

I haven't really worried a lot about this since Mike Dunleavy joined the draft in 2002 and Loul Deng joined the draft in 2004. At that point, I realized that I had a very different idea of what players should do compared to what players actually do. Since then, players have become even more willing to jump to the NBA after one year.

Accordingly, for that reason I have rarely thought about this issue. Having said that, with all televised sports canceled, I'll take a shot. I assume that Vernon and Tre will go. I think that Cassius will go, but I have a very hard time seeing him make an NBA team anytime soon. I assume he'll be in the G League for some time to come.

I think it's possible that Moore and Hurt will return, even probable, but I would not be surprised at all if both chose to go pro. I agree that neither seems NBA ready, but I think that stopped being the only criterion many years ago. For many of these kids, getting a shot at the NBA so far outweighs everything else that they will jump at the first opportunity.

Whatever each of the Duke players choose to do, they will have my support and I will not criticize them for their choice.

[kako]

5 thoughts...

1. If the NCAA allows another year for senior BB players, I doubt they would allow increased scholarships. It sounds great to the top schools, but the vast majority would say otherwise. The smaller schools would have even more trouble competing with the big boys.

2. #1 above being said, if seniors are allowed to return, they probably will lose their scholarship. Would the Duke guys stay? Or would they want to move on with their lives? On the hoops front, the more NCAA players overall that stay, the more openings that would be available in the professional leagues worldwide. Guys like DeLaurier and White, who might not have had a chance at starting a pro career, might actually have such a chance (likely overseas, but a chance). Plus, with the incoming freshmen, their PT would be limited anyway. Would White want to take a risk and be a garbage time player? Maybe JRob would be a walk-on again and stay, though. I've heard he doesn't have future playing aspirations.

3. No matter what happens, Jones and Carey are gone. I also can't see Stanley staying given the guards coming in next year. The fact that the tourney won't happen doesn't really matter to the draft (it happebns no matter what), so it won't matter to the players from a draft perspective. First round money is first round money, NBA dreams are NBA dreams.

4. Hurt might get drafted in the 2nd round, but not a guarantee. He had too many almost-DNPs, and that will make scouts wonder. Moore has potential, but his injuries prevented the scouts from seeing him enough. Both would get summer league invites, but that doesn't translate to a roster spot. I think they stay.

5. Duke has a great class coming in next year, guys at all positions. 6 new scholarships. So if Jones, Carey, Stanley and the 3 seniors go, that's balances. Crazy to think that Duke will be getting 10% of the top 50 (though not as crazy as getting last year's class). This will also limit playing time for existing players, so yet another reason why many on this year's team won't be back next year.

9F

[AtlBluRew]

Cole at #1? Holy smokes, what did they see that I missed?

I’m shocked too. All I see in Anthony is a ball hog who didn’t make his teammates better.

[miramar]

Tre bien and Carey on.

But it will still Hurt to see them go.

[Rickshaw]

Except in this situation, it would be likened to EVERY single senior on EVERY single team being injured during the last month of the season. I'd say nothing that is going on right now can be likened to anything. This is literally unprecedented. So any response would have to be unprecedented too.



Except this was said before any of this happened and before Tre knew he had a 0% chance of continuing Tyus's legacy towards winning a national championship. He might still be gone. But I wouldn't put any credence into anything that was said before this unprecedented situation occurred.

Thus the disclaimer

[SouthernDukie]

I’ll play.

Vernon - 100%

Tre - 99%

Cassius - 95%

Wendell - 35%

Matthew - 30%

Jordan - 0%

Just a tad worried about the “T” word, but as not to violate rules on rumors I’ll say no more. :cool:

Go Duke!!!

[johnb]

For 2020, it seems clear that our top 2 guys are gone.

i also think Stanley is gone. He has NBA athleticism and has been playing with pro players for years. He has a dad who’s a longtime sports agent (including being the first African-American agent to represent the 1st pick in the NFL draft). He strikes me as psychologically and physically ready to play with NBA men. Plus, he’ll be 21 in August, which makes him older than Zion or Barrett. One could argue that he is academically oriented (he started at Harvard-Westlake, which is one of the more academic high schools in the country), but that variable has not been a deciding factor since the days of Battier and Williams. He could have cemented a 1st round spot in the next few weeks, but I’d guess he’ll do that at the combine, where he’ll set the all-time record for vertical leap in a hazmat suit.

It may not be a coincidence that all 3 of those guys have 1st degree relatives who’ve earned serious paychecks from pro sports.

As for the rest of the underclassmen, I’d be shocked if they went pro. Ok, I’m shocked at the current state of the world, so let’s say I’m skeptical that Hurt or Moore would get invited to the combine, much less get drafted.

Hurt lost important PT to a 5th year walk on who had never previously gotten significant minutes (okay, Justin was never really a walk on, or even really a preferred walk on, he was always in a unique situation). Regardless, Hurt’s not close, at the moment, to being a Dunleavy or a Deng, both of whom were completely ready for the NBA (especially Luol). To develop into a legit NBA stretch 4, Hurt needs to develop a better shot and more strength, etc. Maybe a team will be confident in his trajectory, but I don’t think a team would burn a pick on that possibility. Would Hurt really prefer serious G league time over another season at Duke? Wendell is terrific at the moment, but more of a Chris Carrawell or Nate James terrific, which would mean several more years as a team leader and glue guy. Maybe these 2 guys don’t like college and want/need to leave, though Wendell was one of our 2 guys on the All ACC academic team (Jack White was the other). Anyway, I’d put their chances of leaving at 0. Which is win/win since I think both will be much improved next year.

Oh, and no way the NCAA lets seniors return. It’d be chaotic, expensive, against their own rules (they’ve completed eligibility), and way too player friendly.

[UrinalCake]

Portal would be loaded with kids looking to go where they could play right away instead of sit and watch xtra yr srs.

A lot of those seniors would also hit the transfer portal, as grad transfers they could play somewhere else right away.

[Dukehk]

Tre stays I believe.

He is one of those special guys that truely has loved Duke since he was a kid.

I don't think he would want it to end this way. The pros will always be there for him. I believe he wants to win a national title.

[CDu]

Tre stays I believe.

He is one of those special guys that truely has loved Duke since he was a kid.

I don't think he would want it to end this way. The pros will always be there for him. I believe he wants to win a national title.

I will be shocked if he returns. Pleasantly shocked, but absolutely shocked.

He did the “hug coach K in the last home game” thing. Coach K himself slipped that it was Tre’s last home game. The signs all point in that direction.

[MartyClark]

I will be shocked if he returns. Pleasantly shocked, but absolutely shocked.

He did the “hug coach K in the last home game” thing. Coach K himself slipped that it was Tre’s last home game. The signs all point in that direction.

Putting aside my selfish, Duke fan interests, I think Wendell and Mathew should stay. I think they will both improve greatly with another season.

I don't know their family financial situations. They may need some more immediate income. Maybe I just hope they stay because I think they will both be very good next year.

[Truth&Justise]

Putting aside my selfish, Duke fan interests, I think Wendell and Mathew should stay. I think they will both improve greatly with another season.

I don't know their family financial situations. They may need some more immediate income. Maybe I just hope they stay because I think they will both be very good next year.

Agree on all counts--both have very tangibles areas they could address to improve their draft chances.

For Matthew Hurt, it's getting stronger and showing better defense. Those are things that typically get better from a freshman to a sophomore year. If he shows some improvements there, his shooting will get him to the NBA. But he's not there yet.

For Wendell Moore, it's 3pt shooting and turnovers. He has NBA athleticism, but 21% from 3pt is a huge red flag. But he's an 80% FT shooter, so there are signs he can improve. If he can get that 3pt % up to a respectable degree than he's your prototypical 3&D wing. If he can do that AND cut down on turnovers, then you're looking at a 3&D wing who can initiate offense. That could make Wendell a lottery pick.

I expect both to be back, and both to have big seasons. Going further, I think the core-four for next year will be Hurt, Moore, Jalen Johnson and Jeremy Roach. Everyone else will be complementary, and we'll go as far as those four take us.

[sagegrouse]

For 2020, it seems clear that our top 2 guys are gone.

i also think Stanley is gone. He has NBA athleticism and has been playing with pro players for years. He has a dad who’s a longtime sports agent (including being the first African-American agent to represent the 1st pick in the NFL draft). He strikes me as psychologically and physically ready to play with NBA men. Plus, he’ll be 21 in August, which makes him older than Zion or Barrett. One could argue that he is academically oriented (he started at Harvard-Westlake, which is one of the more academic high schools in the country), but that variable has not been a deciding factor since the days of Battier and Williams. He could have cemented a 1st round spot in the next few weeks, but I’d guess he’ll do that at the combine, where he’ll set the all-time record for vertical leap in a hazmat suit.

It may not be a coincidence that all 3 of those guys have 1st degree relatives who’ve earned serious paychecks from pro sports.
John B, I could also argue the flip side in these three cases -- ain't no one at home saying, "We need the money -- now," so they can make a professional decision on what's best for them or, heaven forfend, what they would personally prefer to do. Tre and Vernon will leave, but I have some hopes for Cassius sticking around another year.

[sagegrouse]

John B, I could also argue the flip side in these three cases -- ain't no one at home saying, "We need the money -- now," so they can make a professional decision on what's best for them or, heaven forfend, what they would personally prefer to do. Tre and Vernon will leave, but I have some hopes for Cassius sticking around another year.

Also -- not saying I disagree with you.

[Steven43]

For Wendell Moore, it's 3pt shooting and turnovers. He has NBA athleticism, but 21% from 3pt is a huge red flag. But he's an 80% FT shooter, so there are signs he can improve. If he can get that 3pt % up to a respectable degree than he's your prototypical 3&D wing. If he can do that AND cut down on turnovers, then you're looking at a 3&D wing who can initiate offense. That could make Wendell a lottery pick.
Wendell Moore has some talent, but he’s not an off-the-chart athlete by any means. And his level of various skills is fairly average right now for a major conference basketball player. He has a long LONG way to go before he could even think about cracking an NBA lineup.

[53n206]

The tournaments have often made a difference to the drafts. Without them who knows.

[dukelifer]

Wendell Moore has some talent, but he’s not an off-the-chart athlete by any means. And his level of various skills is fairly average right now for a major conference basketball player. He has a long LONG way to go before he could even think about cracking an NBA lineup.

A player should leave when the college game seems easy for them. In his last 8 games, Wendell scored 4 or less points 6 times. I am not convinced this is evidence that he has figured it out. The kid has talent and will get much better but he is not ready. I hope he takes the good advice to wait.

[kAzE]

I will be shocked if he returns. Pleasantly shocked, but absolutely shocked.

He did the “hug coach K in the last home game” thing. Coach K himself slipped that it was Tre’s last home game. The signs all point in that direction.

I'd be with you if this was a normal season. We're all throwing wild guesses out, but I believe the way the season ended puts a Tre return on the table, however unlikely it may be. He does strike me as one of those guys who values this experience, and he was robbed of it.

[budwom]

I thought K already gave Tre a verbal adios...I can't possibly see why he'd return.

[Troublemaker]

I'd be with you if this was a normal season. We're all throwing wild guesses out, but I believe the way the season ended puts a Tre return on the table, however unlikely it may be. He does strike me as one of those guys who values this experience, and he was robbed of it.

That only matters if he had made a snap decision in the immediate aftermath of the NCAA canceling the tournament. Given time, cooler heads will prevail. The family already has an agent afterall (Tyus'), who will remind Tre and the family if needed that athletes have limited earning years, that the 25th pick or so is guaranteed about $3.5M and is very likely (through options) to make another $2M-$5M on top, that injuries can occur, that bad shooting seasons can occur (especially in a smaller NCAA sample), etc etc.

It doesn't break the laws of physics for Tre to return. That's about it.

[freshmanjs]

I thought K already gave Tre a verbal adios...I can't possibly see why he'd return.

If he wants to play in another NCAA tournament. I don’t think he’s likely to stay. But, it’s not at all difficult to imagine why he’d return.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I thought K already gave Tre a verbal adios...I can't possibly see why he'd return.

That was a week ago, which is like a brazillion years ago.

[WillJ]

Wendell Moore has some talent, but he’s not an off-the-chart athlete by any means. And his level of various skills is fairly average right now for a major conference basketball player. He has a long LONG way to go before he could even think about cracking an NBA lineup.

Did Wendell have a dunk this year?

[rsvman]

Did Wendell have a dunk this year?

Are you being serious? Of course he did. Many, in fact.

[budwom]

I don't think the players are as sentimental as we are. Million dollar paycheck or another NCAAT? Tre was already player of the year, can't see him coming back.

[jv001]

I don't think the players are as sentimental as we are. Million dollar paycheck or another NCAAT? Tre was already player of the year, can't see him coming back.

I agree, Tre would be wasting an MVP season on hopes of winning a couple of championships(ACCT and NCAAT). I know he loves Duke University and wants to be champion like his brother, but I just don't see Tre taking that chance. Plus, how good is the OAD freshmen class of next season supposed to be. Are there many point guards that he would have to compete with?

GoDuke!

[UrinalCake]

I remember at the start of Grayson’s junior year, K openly stated that he was on a three year plan to graduate with the intent of leaving at the end of that season. He even took five classes in the fall (which is a huge load even for a “regular” student) in order to get his degree in three years. But then plans changed and he ended up staying a fourth. So even if you believe that K’s statement about Tre meant that he was planning to leave this year, plans can always change. Aside from missing the tournament, who knows what will happen with the draft, the combine, the start of next season, seniors coming back, etc.

[Dukehky]

Are you being serious? Of course he did. Many, in fact.

I asked a buddy of mine who covers the team, because I couldn't remember seeing it and noted that he never dunked when he had the chance during the last few games.

The result: Wendell did not dunk in the 2020 calendar year and had 3 total dunks during the 2019-2020 season.

[rsvman]

I asked a buddy of mine who covers the team, because I couldn't remember seeing it and noted that he never dunked when he had the chance during the last few games.

The result: Wendell did not dunk in the 2020 calendar year and had 3 total dunks during the 2019-2020 season.

This surprises me. I distinctly remember seeing him dunk.

I don't suppose people are trying to say that he is not athletic enough to dunk, right?

[Dukehky]

This surprises me. I distinctly remember seeing him dunk.

I don't suppose people are trying to say that he is not athletic enough to dunk, right?

No. He can definitely dunk. He's also got like a 7'0 wingspan. But, no one can say that he's a particularly explosive athlete, which is why I think he doesn't have big dunk numbers. Doesn't really matter because he doesn't get his shot blocked or he gets a charge when he gets in the paint.

45 second mark. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wycVUNXtF2A

[sagegrouse]

Are you being serious? Of course he did. Many, in fact.

However, his best shot was his lay-up against Carolina at the OT buzzer.

[Devilwin]

Hypothetical question here. What would Roach do if Tre came back? I think Tre is gone..

[BlueDevil16]

Would be great for one of tre, Vernon, or Cassius to come back

[Furniture]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DukeFansZone/status/1239104028375691268

”not a goodbye......just a see you later”.

[scottdude8]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DukeFansZone/status/1239104028375691268

”not a goodbye...just a see you later”.

I have to think these kids are trained enough by the Duke media team about how posts like these will be interpreted to be smart about it. Tre set them example last year. So I view this as a great sign :)

To the naysayers who will say “he was never going pro”... that’s just not the landscape we live in now. Anytime a top-50 caliber recruit stays in school it’s a big plus that was never 100% guaranteed, regardless of draft projections (just think about Trevon).

Wendell has the potential to make a huge leap from year 1 to year 2. Make him go through the Tre Jones/Jordan Goldwire 3 point shooting boot camp this summer and he’s got a completely different offensive game.

This is good news. We’re becoming numb to such things already, but this is good news!

[Devilwin]

I have to think these kids are trained enough by the Duke media team about how posts like these will be interpreted to be smart about it. Tre set them example last year. So I view this as a great sign :)

To the naysayers who will say “he was never going pro”... that’s just not the landscape we live in now. Anytime a top-50 caliber recruit stays in school it’s a big plus that was never 100% guaranteed, regardless of draft projections (just think about Trevon).

Wendell has the potential to make a huge leap from year 1 to year 2. Make him go through the Tre Jones/Jordan Goldwire 3 point shooting boot camp this summer and he’s got a completely different offensive game.

This is good news. We’re becoming numb to such things already, but this is good news!

I agree on Wendell's shooting, but to me his drawback is his ball handling. He lost the ball frequently on drives.

[sagegrouse]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DukeFansZone/status/1239104028375691268

”not a goodbye...just a see you later”.

Yeah!

[scottdude8]

I agree on Wendell's shooting, but to me his drawback is his ball handling. He lost the ball frequently on drives.

That's definitely another point to work on, but I think the shooting is something that's a little bit more immediately attainable. Based on what we saw this year I think Wendell might project best as a "3 and D" type guy with some slashing ability, rather than a "point forward" type player that many thought he might be based on his recruiting profile. Given the likely role he'll have on next year's team, combined with the fact that Jalen Johnson does project as a more polished "point forward" style player, I think his shot will be more critical than his handles in the role we'd like him to carve out.

Man, it's already baseless speculation time about next season when it should be baseless speculation time about Selection Sunday. I just got sad again... no, must stay happy, Wendell's probably back!!!

[Owen Meany]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DukeFansZone/status/1239104028375691268

”not a goodbye...just a see you later”.

FWIW, this could be read as "it's not goodbye, I'll see you around, visit, etc". So i don't think it's an unambiguous statement until more is said.

[kAzE]

Hypothetical question here. What would Roach do if Tre came back? I think Tre is gone..

I'd be really happy with a Jeremy Roach/Tre Jones back court. Roach is a more conventional set up guy with the quickness and explosiveness to blow by defenders, and Tre is the ideal guy to guard the other team's ball handler. I never understood why people are so against two point guard lineups. I love when you can put multiple point guards on the floor. There's no such thing as "too many" ball handlers. The only thing that doesn't work out is when you have too many "ball dominant" players (i.e. if you have Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson together), and I don't believe either of those guys play that way. Heck, the OKC Thunder were doing phenomenally with 3 point guard lineups.

Also, the last couple of times we had an upperclassmen point guard/freshman point guard starting backcourt, it worked out pretty nicely. That was Quinn Cook/Tyus Jones and Jay Williams/Chris Duhon.

[Dukehky]

I'd be really happy with a Jeremy Roach/Tre Jones back court. Roach is a more conventional set up guy with the quickness and explosiveness to blow by defenders, and Tre is the ideal guy to guard the other team's ball handler. I never understood why people are so against two point guard lineups. I love when you can put multiple point guards on the floor. There's no such thing as "too many" ball handlers. The only thing that doesn't work out is when you have too many "ball dominant" players (i.e. if you have Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson together), and I don't believe either of those guys play that way. Heck, the OKC Thunder were doing phenomenally with 3 point guard lineups.

Also, the last couple of times we had an upperclassmen point guard/freshman point guard starting backcourt, it worked out pretty nicely. That was Quinn Cook/Tyus Jones and Jay Williams/Chris Duhon.

Real hot take right there--you would like a line up with Tre Jones.

Just messing with you. I don't think Tre comes back, so it's just a pipe dream. But I don't think we're going to hear about any decisions for the foreseeable future. I think this is especially true this year where there is so much uncertainty regarding where our potentially departing players might be drafted, and K is not going to let these guys make uninformed decisions.

Would be pretty shocked if the deadline to declare and pull your name out is not substantially extended this year.

[KandG]

For 2020, it seems clear that our top 2 guys are gone.

i also think Stanley is gone. He has NBA athleticism and has been playing with pro players for years. He has a dad who’s a longtime sports agent (including being the first African-American agent to represent the 1st pick in the NFL draft). He strikes me as psychologically and physically ready to play with NBA men. Plus, he’ll be 21 in August, which makes him older than Zion or Barrett. One could argue that he is academically oriented (he started at Harvard-Westlake, which is one of the more academic high schools in the country), but that variable has not been a deciding factor since the days of Battier and Williams. He could have cemented a 1st round spot in the next few weeks, but I’d guess he’ll do that at the combine, where he’ll set the all-time record for vertical leap in a hazmat suit.

It may not be a coincidence that all 3 of those guys have 1st degree relatives who’ve earned serious paychecks from pro sports.

As for the rest of the underclassmen, I’d be shocked if they went pro. Ok, I’m shocked at the current state of the world, so let’s say I’m skeptical that Hurt or Moore would get invited to the combine, much less get drafted.



Oh, and no way the NCAA lets seniors return. It’d be chaotic, expensive, against their own rules (they’ve completed eligibility), and way too player friendly.

Agree with all of the above except the bolded. I don’t think Hurt or Moore are ready, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the coaching staff worked especially hard on Moore to convince him to stay another year given his considerable weaknesses at this point. But Hurt is the kind of player the NBA loves the upside of (tall athletic shooter who could go from wing to stretch 5) even if he’s not nearly strong enough yet to actually play with NBA athletes...all it would take is one team drafting him high enough to make him consider going now.

Have to admit I”m surprised Carey is projecting so high on some of the draft boards I’ve seen given how low the stock of traditional centers is in the NBA, unless they’re seeing potential for him playing on the perimeter that we didn’t see much of in the last year. Tre coming back would shock me more than a cure for the virus being developed in the next week.

[DrChainsaw]

Agree with all of the above except the bolded. I don’t think Hurt or Moore are ready, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the coaching staff worked especially hard on Moore to convince him to stay another year given his considerable weaknesses at this point. But Hurt is the kind of player the NBA loves the upside of (tall athletic shooter who could go from wing to stretch 5) even if he’s not nearly strong enough yet to actually play with NBA athletes...all it would take is one team drafting him high enough to make him consider going now.

Have to admit I”m surprised Carey is projecting so high on some of the draft boards I’ve seen given how low the stock of traditional centers is in the NBA, unless they’re seeing potential for him playing on the perimeter that we didn’t see much of in the last year. Tre coming back would shock me more than a cure for the virus being developed in the next week.

I have to agree with your theory on Carey. Some are saying that he's just a back-to-the-basket center, but I think others are betting on the potential for a broader skill set.

[lotusland]

I'd be really happy with a Jeremy Roach/Tre Jones back court. Roach is a more conventional set up guy with the quickness and explosiveness to blow by defenders, and Tre is the ideal guy to guard the other team's ball handler. I never understood why people are so against two point guard lineups. I love when you can put multiple point guards on the floor. There's no such thing as "too many" ball handlers. The only thing that doesn't work out is when you have too many "ball dominant" players (i.e. if you have Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson together), and I don't believe either of those guys play that way. Heck, the OKC Thunder were doing phenomenally with 3 point guard lineups.

Also, the last couple of times we had an upperclassmen point guard/freshman point guard starting backcourt, it worked out pretty nicely. That was Quinn Cook/Tyus Jones and Jay Williams/Chris Duhon.

How about a 2 point guard backcourt with Jeremy Roach and Jordon Goldwire? I think that can be arranged.

[lotusland]

I’m not an NBA fan and don’t watch much which probably explains why I don’t understand why anyone in their right mind would draft Hurt ahead of Stanley. I thought the goal, especially for small market teams, was to swing for the fence and try to land a franchise player. Stanley exceeded my expectations in every way. I was expecting an athletic unskilled Hamid Diallo type player. He’s far more skilled and even more spectacular than I expected. He shoots way better than Andrew Wiggins now. Is it less likely that he will improve passing and ball handling enough to excel in the nba with the spacing these days than for Hurt to improve his PNR defense, ball handling, post offense and rebounding? I love Hurt’s potential next year at Duke but He’s not elite at anything today and he has major deficiencies. I think if he played 3 years he could be Frank Kaminsky or at least Jay Huff.

[uh_no]

I’m not an NBA fan and don’t watch much which probably explains why I don’t understand why anyone in their right mind would draft Hurt ahead of Stanley. I thought the goal, especially for small market teams, was to swing for the fence and try to land a franchise player. Stanley exceeded my expectations in every way. I was expecting an athletic unskilled Hamid Diallo type player. He’s far more skilled and even more spectacular than I expected. He shoots way better than Andrew Wiggins now. Is it less likely that he will improve passing and ball handling enough to excel in the nba with the spacing these days than for Hurt to improve his PNR defense, ball handling, post offense and rebounding? I love Hurt’s potential next year at Duke but He’s not elite at anything today and he has major deficiencies. I think if he played 3 years he could be Frank Kaminsky or at least Jay Huff.

maybe not this year, but in the following couple of years. It's all about potential, and hurt and stanley have it.

[scottdude8]

If we’re at the point of monitoring Twitter accounts (which, come on, we have nothing else to do!), Cassius and Tre were tweeting back and forth this evening. So they seem like real buddies online. Probably nothing. But let’s analyze it intensely!!!

https://twitter.com/cassius_stanley/status/1239384649308274698?s=21

[uh_no]

If we’re at the point of monitoring Twitter accounts (which, come on, we have nothing else to do!), Cassius and Tre were tweeting back and forth this evening. So they seem like real buddies online. Probably nothing. But let’s analyze it intensely!!!

https://twitter.com/cassius_stanley/status/1239384649308274698?s=21

unfinished. business.

I do honestly wonder how being away from campus might affect decisions. Gotta be hard to be separated from your bros like that without any sort of closure.

[kAzE]

Real hot take right there--you would like a line up with Tre Jones.

Just messing with you. I don't think Tre comes back, so it's just a pipe dream. But I don't think we're going to hear about any decisions for the foreseeable future. I think this is especially true this year where there is so much uncertainty regarding where our potentially departing players might be drafted, and K is not going to let these guys make uninformed decisions.

Would be pretty shocked if the deadline to declare and pull your name out is not substantially extended this year.

Well, we had Tre Jones this year, and I wasn't a big fan of our back court. Goldwire is fine as an energy guy off the bench, but he obviously has a lot of limitations. Stanley was an incredible freshman, but ball handling was not one of his strong suits. I think we could have been the type of team to stay at #1 all year if we had another dynamic ball handler who could score.

[rocketeli]

I've been thinking about this...and what I see is that although the NBA is not pro wrestling, they are much further to the entertainment side of "sportsertainment" than the college basketball game and they are not interested in how well someone can play college basketball, except in certain aspects of point guard play. What they are looking for in a basketball player is physicality, athleticism and "star power," because they want players that can do entertaining things on the basketball court and be noteworthy and positive personalities off of it. That's why they were so excited about Zion Williamson, as he rang all their chimes, and why they were totally willing to spend an early draft pick on a player like Cam Reddish, despite his somewhat unpolished play at times.
Tre, as a point guard, had to show he could shoot better than he did as a freshman, and mission accomplished. There is no better time for him to go pro than right now.
Vernon Carey is gone, of course. Stanley can go too, because what NBA execs see if a guy with amazing athleticism, with the capacity to do crowd pleasing dunks and make crazy physical plays like blocks and catches. They figure they can teach him systems and work on dribbling and shooting, but you can't teach the former.
Everyone else would, form the standpoint purely of developing a pro career, benefit from at least another year of building their brand with the NCAA.

[killerleft]

I agree, Tre would be wasting an MVP season on hopes of winning a couple of championships(ACCT and NCAAT). I know he loves Duke University and wants to be champion like his brother, but I just don't see Tre taking that chance. Plus, how good is the OAD freshmen class of next season supposed to be. Are there many point guards that he would have to compete with?

GoDuke!

Yeah, we have three-four that would run the ACC Player of the Year out of town quick!:rolleyes: Several of our celebrated point guards past could compete with Tre, but very few if ANY freshmen. Amaker comes to mind.

[UrinalCake]

Random thought here as I try to keep from going crazy without sports to discuss... the NBA's salary cap is based on revenue, and the league stands to lose a ton of money this season. So it would be reasonable to assume that salary caps will be going down in 2-3 years, or whenever the effects of the current season kick in. When that happens we'll see free agent contracts that are a lot smaller than expected. So I'm wondering if any players are thinking that far ahead and might not want to hit the end of their rookie contracts at the same time that most team's cap space will be at a minimum?

[Channing]

I've been thinking about this...and what I see is that although the NBA is not pro wrestling, they are much further to the entertainment side of "sportsertainment" than the college basketball game and they are not interested in how well someone can play college basketball, except in certain aspects of point guard play. What they are looking for in a basketball player is physicality, athleticism and "star power," because they want players that can do entertaining things on the basketball court and be noteworthy and positive personalities off of it. That's why they were so excited about Zion Williamson, as he rang all their chimes, and why they were totally willing to spend an early draft pick on a player like Cam Reddish, despite his somewhat unpolished play at times.
Tre, as a point guard, had to show he could shoot better than he did as a freshman, and mission accomplished. There is no better time for him to go pro than right now.
Vernon Carey is gone, of course. Stanley can go too, because what NBA execs see if a guy with amazing athleticism, with the capacity to do crowd pleasing dunks and make crazy physical plays like blocks and catches. They figure they can teach him systems and work on dribbling and shooting, but you can't teach the former.
Everyone else would, form the standpoint purely of developing a pro career, benefit from at least another year of building their brand with the NCAA.

The more I read about the draft, the more I, objectively, think Tre should come back. I see him projected anywhere from late first round to mid-second round. We have watched two guards who scratched and clawed and had to really grind to go from the G league to the NBA, and I think that is much more the exception than the rule. Also, both of those guys were seniors and no longer had the option to come back. Could Tre Jones be the ideal backup point guard in the NBA? Maybe. His jump shot is better but still not great and he is still a bit undersized.

I get the injury risk, but buy it a lot more for lottery type guys who may legitimately miss out on millions and millions of dollars if they get hurt. Not only does Tre not have a history of injuries, but an injury to a second round pick in the G league has got to be a worst case scenario (certainly worse than being injured while at Duke and maintaining the flexibility to come back and prove yourself).

I think the same goes for hurt. Ryan Kelly may be an analog at Hurt's current level. By the time he is ready to graduate, if he is able to bulk up, perhaps Frank Kaminsky is an analog. There is a pretty wide gap in career potential between those two (not taking anything away from RK - but he had to scrap and claw for every moment he was given in the NBA).

[uh_no]

The more I read about the draft, the more I, objectively, think Tre should come back. I see him projected anywhere from late first round to mid-second round. We have watched two guards who scratched and clawed and had to really grind to go from the G league to the NBA, and I think that is much more the exception than the rule. Also, both of those guys were seniors and no longer had the option to come back. Could Tre Jones be the ideal backup point guard in the NBA? Maybe. His jump shot is better but still not great and he is still a bit undersized.

I get the injury risk, but buy it a lot more for lottery type guys who may legitimately miss out on millions and millions of dollars if they get hurt. Not only does Tre not have a history of injuries, but an injury to a second round pick in the G league has got to be a worst case scenario (certainly worse than being injured while at Duke and maintaining the flexibility to come back and prove yourself).


Would you compare tre positively or negatively to tyus when he left? By almost all measures, tre is the better player.

[Steven43]

The more I read about the draft, the more I, objectively, think Tre should come back. Could Tre Jones be the ideal backup point guard in the NBA? Maybe. His jump shot is better but still not great and he is still a bit undersized.

Well, Tre is probably going to remain undersized. Not much he can do about that.

By the way, I wanted to highlight the word “undersized” in Channing’s post, but I couldn’t figure out how to do it. Could someone help me with that? I’d like to know how to do it for future use. Thank you.

[jimsumner]

There's an incredible variance in ages amongst the freshmen.

Birth dates

Cassius Stanley-8/18/1999

Matthew Hurt-4/20/2000

Vernon Carey-2/25/2001

Wendell Moore-9/18/2001

And Tre Jones, 1/8/2000

Yes Stanley is almost 2 years older than Moore and is older than Jones or Joey Baker and only a couple of months younger than Goldwire or O"Connell.

Now, how does this impact draft decisions? In Stanley's case I have to assume that would push him towards the draft. Does he want to be a 22-year-old rookie with two years of college under his belt? I suspect not.

But would the opposite apply to Moore and keep him around longer? Perhaps an NBA team would find him more attractive this year than they would a couple of years down the road.

What are the trade-offs between skill, experience and age? All things being equal a 19-year-old is more attractive to an NBA team than an equally skilled 21-year-old. But how much does an extra year (or two, or three) in college change that?

[devilnfla]

I have to agree with your theory on Carey. Some are saying that he's just a back-to-the-basket center, but I think others are betting on the potential for a broader skill set.

Especially since he was not a back-to-the-basket center until arriving at Duke.

[Indoor66]

Well, Tre is probably going to remain undersized. Not much he can do about that.

By the way, I wanted to highlight the word “undersized” in Channing’s post, but I couldn’t figure out how to do it. Could someone help me with that? I’d like to know how to do it for future use. Thank you.

Trey is 6'3". Is that undersized for a point guard?

[jimsumner]

Trey is 6'3". Is that undersized for a point guard?

I believe 6-3 is very, very generous.

[SavDukeGrad]

I’m not sure if this is the correct thread, but I wanted to address something I have seen posted on multiple threads - the issue of how hard this must be for the players not to receive any closure. One minute they were warming up for the ACC tournament and thinking ahead to the NCAAs, and the next minute bam - their season (and in some cases college career) was over. And how much their day to day life had changed - they were no longer with the guys they had been spending every waking hour with since last summer. And if these circumstances would affect their decisions about staying or going.

In Coach K’s most recent post on the dukembb instagram acct, where he thanks Duke fans and tells everyone to stay safe, he mentions that the players went home on Sunday. So hopefully, they were able to gain some closure with their teammates between Thursday and Sunday. I have always heard that Coach K meets with each player individually at the end of each season to evaluate their season and discuss their future. (I think I have read that frequently families are involved in these meetings as well) I have no idea if the abrupt end to the season will affect anyone’ decision, but at least it looks like the staff had a few days to wrap things up.

[budwom]

I believe 6-3 is very, very generous.

it is indeed generous, but not as lavishly so as Stanley's 6-6.

[Channing]

Would you compare tre positively or negatively to tyus when he left? By almost all measures, tre is the better player.

Biggest difference was Tyus’s NCAAT exposure because, if memory serves, he was not a sure thing lottery pick before the tournament.

Also, with respect to size, it won’t change. That mitigates, IMO to having another dominant season, hopefully with the NCAAT to show the goods (and maybe even get in the rafters).

All conjecture because it isn’t my decision, but the stay-side of the equation appears to at least be as strong as the go-side.

[Reddevil]

I’m not sure if this is the correct thread, but I wanted to address something I have seen posted on multiple threads - the issue of how hard this must be for the players not to receive any closure. One minute they were warming up for the ACC tournament and thinking ahead to the NCAAs, and the next minute bam - their season (and in some cases college career) was over. And how much their day to day life had changed - they were no longer with the guys they had been spending every waking hour with since last summer. And if these circumstances would affect their decisions about staying or going.

In Coach K’s most recent post on the dukembb instagram acct, where he thanks Duke fans and tells everyone to stay safe, he mentions that the players went home on Sunday. So hopefully, they were able to gain some closure with their teammates between Thursday and Sunday. I have always heard that Coach K meets with each player individually at the end of each season to evaluate their season and discuss their future. (I think I have read that frequently families are involved in these meetings as well) I have no idea if the abrupt end to the season will affect anyone’ decision, but at least it looks like the staff had a few days to wrap things up.

This is why it is so great that we got to have senior night. We will never forget JRob's performance against unc, and neither will he or his family. Legendary stuff. Now that the dust has settled a bit, the end of the season seems okay under the circumstances.

[rsvman]

There's an incredible variance in ages amongst the freshmen.

Birth dates

Cassius Stanley-8/18/1999

Wendell Moore-9/18/2001



Yes Stanley is almost 2 years older than Moore .....

.....

Um, I could be wrong, but wouldn't Cassius have turned two in August of 2001, one month before Wendell was born? Maybe I'm just using the old math?

[dukelifer]

it is indeed generous, but not as lavishly so as Stanley's 6-6.

Yes- he is much smaller than that. But he jumps really really high/

[Troublemaker]

The more I read about the draft, the more I, objectively, think Tre should come back. I see him projected anywhere from late first round to mid-second round. We have watched two guards who scratched and clawed and had to really grind to go from the G league to the NBA, and I think that is much more the exception than the rule. Also, both of those guys were seniors and no longer had the option to come back. Could Tre Jones be the ideal backup point guard in the NBA? Maybe. His jump shot is better but still not great and he is still a bit undersized.

I get the injury risk, but buy it a lot more for lottery type guys who may legitimately miss out on millions and millions of dollars if they get hurt. Not only does Tre not have a history of injuries, but an injury to a second round pick in the G league has got to be a worst case scenario (certainly worse than being injured while at Duke and maintaining the flexibility to come back and prove yourself).

I think the same goes for hurt. Ryan Kelly may be an analog at Hurt's current level. By the time he is ready to graduate, if he is able to bulk up, perhaps Frank Kaminsky is an analog. There is a pretty wide gap in career potential between those two (not taking anything away from RK - but he had to scrap and claw for every moment he was given in the NBA).

If Tre's drafted in the 20-40 range as expected, he's still making millions on his rookie contract.


Biggest difference was Tyus’s NCAAT exposure because, if memory serves, he was not a sure thing lottery pick before the tournament.

Also, with respect to size, it won’t change. That mitigates, IMO to having another dominant season, hopefully with the NCAAT to show the goods (and maybe even get in the rafters).

All conjecture because it isn’t my decision, but the stay-side of the equation appears to at least be as strong as the go-side.

Unfortunately, I don't think that's the case for 99% of people making this decision. Tre would have to be really unique in how he values certain things over other things.

[Steven43]

Trey is 6'3". Is that undersized for a point guard?

I don’t know. Perhaps you should ask the original source who referred to him in that manner. I was just repeating what had already been written, not offering an opinion.

[sagegrouse]

Biggest difference was Tyus’s NCAAT exposure because, if memory serves, he was not a sure thing lottery pick before the tournament.

Also, with respect to size, it won’t change. That mitigates, IMO to having another dominant season, hopefully with the NCAAT to show the goods (and maybe even get in the rafters).

All conjecture because it isn’t my decision, but the stay-side of the equation appears to at least be as strong as the go-side.

I would go further and speculate that if Duke had lost in the Sweet Sixteen in 2015, Tyus would have stayed at least another year. (Good trade, by the way.)

[uh_no]

Biggest difference was Tyus’s NCAAT exposure because, if memory serves, he was not a sure thing lottery pick before the tournament.

Also, with respect to size, it won’t change. That mitigates, IMO to having another dominant season, hopefully with the NCAAT to show the goods (and maybe even get in the rafters).

All conjecture because it isn’t my decision, but the stay-side of the equation appears to at least be as strong as the go-side.

ACC POY/DPOY as well as his performances vs UNC got him plenty of exposure.

You may be in the vast minority who thinks the stay-side gains him much from a NBA prospects standpoint.

[pfrduke]

By the way, I wanted to highlight the word “undersized” in Channing’s post, but I couldn’t figure out how to do it. Could someone help me with that? I’d like to know how to do it for future use. Thank you.

When replying with the quote, you can make a word in the prior post bolded, italicized, or underlined by selecting the word and using the buttons in the board's software (or, if mobile posting, sticking the relevant tags - without the spaces, [ B ] [ /B ]; [ I ] [ /I ]; [ U ] [ /U ]. I don't think the board software has a true highlighter function.

[jimsumner]

Um, I could be wrong, but wouldn't Cassius have turned two in August of 2001, one month before Wendell was born? Maybe I'm just using the old math?

Technically, that does make him almost two years old then Moore. :)

[Channing]

ACC POY/DPOY as well as his performances vs UNC got him plenty of exposure.

You may be in the vast minority who thinks the stay-side gains him much from a NBA prospects standpoint.

I'm not sure coming back does increase his likelihood of improving his draft status. It may it may not. All I am saying is that if he is currently graded to late first round / mid second round, then the reality that he very well may have to grind through the G-league to try and get his shot and it may or it may not happen. It happened for QC and Seth. Scheyer, Nolan, Demarcus Nelson, and countless others were not able to get there. With that in mind, if it were me (and I know it is not, which makes this all academic), the downside protection for long-term success is playing another year at Duke (I presume he will be in a position to graduate after 3 years) and potentially get your number in the rafters. Certainly, if the NBA does not work out (which I hope it does), the long term options for the version of Tre that graduates are higher (and I know he can always go back to school etc. etc.).

The downside of coming back is the injury risk which, as noted, is (IMHO) greater in the G-league than it is at Duke (not the risk of injury, but the risk of an injury being a death knell for a career).

Anyhow, this is all just discussion board fodder and I hope that one day I get to share my thoughts and opinions with my child who is contemplating leaving early for a pro career (which is the only time someone may care about my opinion).

[uh_no]

I'm not sure coming back does increase his likelihood of improving his draft status. It may it may not. All I am saying is that if he is currently graded to late first round / mid second round, then the reality that he very well may have to grind through the G-league to try and get his shot and it may or it may not happen. It happened for QC and Seth. Scheyer, Nolan, Demarcus Nelson, and countless others were not able to get there. With that in mind, if it were me (and I know it is not, which makes this all academic), the downside protection for long-term success is playing another year at Duke (I presume he will be in a position to graduate after 3 years) and potentially get your number in the rafters. Certainly, if the NBA does not work out (which I hope it does), the long term options for the version of Tre that graduates are higher (and I know he can always go back to school etc. etc.).

The downside of coming back is the injury risk which, as noted, is (IMHO) greater in the G-league than it is at Duke (not the risk of injury, but the risk of an injury being a death knell for a career).

Anyhow, this is all just discussion board fodder and I hope that one day I get to share my thoughts and opinions with my child who is contemplating leaving early for a pro career (which is the only time someone may care about my opinion).

But none of those players were projected to be drafted at all, let alone after their sophomore seasons, and they certainly weren't borderline first rounders. I guess I don't understand how staying is, as you say "downside protection," when you open with concluding that you aren't sure coming back would improve his NBA prospects. So what exactly is he coming back for? A higher risk of injury and an outside shot at a jersey? A year of making money for duke and the NCAA?

What I'm not sure of is what next year's class will look like. I'd suggest looking and taking the weaker class.

I think what might be most compelling is that with Tyus doing Tyus, the family is pretty much set up. So if he feels he has a shot at a better draft position due to next year's class being weaker, stay back. Why not?

[Channing]

I think coming back is better downside protection on an injury and the risk that a later first round to mid-second rounder is going to have to fight for a spot in the league and is not going to get an initial pay-day that is generationally transformative.

[sagegrouse]

But none of those players were projected to be drafted at all, let alone after their sophomore seasons, and they certainly weren't borderline first rounders. I guess I don't understand how staying is, as you say "downside protection," when you open with concluding that you aren't sure coming back would improve his NBA prospects. So what exactly is he coming back for? A higher risk of injury and an outside shot at a jersey? A year of making money for duke and the NCAA?

What I'm not sure of is what next year's class will look like. I'd suggest looking and taking the weaker class.

I think what might be most compelling is that with Tyus doing Tyus, the family is pretty much set up. So if he feels he has a shot at a better draft position due to next year's class being weaker, stay back. Why not?

I'll clutch at any straw that suggests Tre returns, but we all heard his coach say it was his last game at Cameron.

[dukelifer]

I'll clutch at any straw that suggests Tre returns, but we all heard his coach say it was his last game at Cameron.

Unless- they are planning to rename Cameron and K let that out of the bag.

[uh_no]

I'll clutch at any straw that suggests Tre returns, but we all heard his coach say it was his last game at Cameron.

agree. i was playing devils advocate against myself at the nudging of channing

[jaywilliams22]

Not sure which thread to put this, but an interesting candidate to keep an eye on. Doesn't mention Duke, but was nation's leading rebounder last year and available immediately to play.

https://247sports.com/college/basketball/recruiting/Article/Kevin-Marfo-Quinnipiac-Graduate-Transfer-145108032/

[ElliottHoo]

Not sure which thread to put this, but an interesting candidate to keep an eye on. Doesn't mention Duke, but was nation's leading rebounder last year and available immediately to play.

https://247sports.com/college/basketball/recruiting/Article/Kevin-Marfo-Quinnipiac-Graduate-Transfer-145108032/

Something that I always forget and then am surprised to remember is how consistently amazing Quinnipiac is at offensive rebounding. They’ve been down the last couple years and they usually aren’t a particularly good team overall, so there’s no reason for most folks to follow them. But their OReb% tends to be really impressive year after year.

[mattman91]

Not sure which thread to put this, but an interesting candidate to keep an eye on. Doesn't mention Duke, but was nation's leading rebounder last year and available immediately to play.

https://247sports.com/college/basketball/recruiting/Article/Kevin-Marfo-Quinnipiac-Graduate-Transfer-145108032/


Surprisingly this guy is only 6'8. Wonder what his wingspan is...

[MChambers]

Surprisingly this guy is only 6'8. Wonder what his wingspan is...

A picture with cinder blocks would be very helpful.

[gam7]

Surprisingly this guy is only 6'8. Wonder what his wingspan is...

Not sure, but he rebounds like a Marfo.

[Troublemaker]

I think coming back is better downside protection on an injury and the risk that a later first round to mid-second rounder is going to have to fight for a spot in the league and is not going to get an initial pay-day that is generationally transformative.

I still don't understand what the basis for this reasoning is, though. Keeping in mind that if Tre suffers catastrophic injury, he can always come back to Duke and complete his degree for free.

[devilsadvocate85]

agree. i was playing devils advocate against myself at the nudging of channing

Shouldn’t you leave that role for me? ;)

[scottdude8]

Red alert! Red alert! Slight change to Matthew Hurt’s Twitter bio!!!

https://twitter.com/bluedevilball1/status/1239728580470472704?s=21

Now we can overreact to some potentially good news as opposed to bad! ;)

[arnie]

Red alert! Red alert! Slight change to Matthew Hurt’s Twitter bio!!!

https://twitter.com/bluedevilball1/status/1239728580470472704?s=21

Now we can overreact to some potentially good news as opposed to bad! ;)

What? Did Hurt commit to staying all 4 years?🤪

[proelitedota]

Red alert! Red alert! Slight change to Matthew Hurt’s Twitter bio!!!

https://twitter.com/bluedevilball1/status/1239728580470472704?s=21

Now we can overreact to some potentially good news as opposed to bad! ;)

4 year player confirmed.

[scottdude8]

What? Did Hurt commit to staying all 4 years?🤪


4 year player confirmed.

I think COVID-19 may cause this board to spontaneously combust ;)

[jimsumner]

I think COVID-19 may cause this board to spontaneously combust ;)

Well, no live ball games, no sports on TV, no movies, no restaurants, no concerts.

Just message boards.

And binge-watching.

What could possibly go wrong? :)

[sagegrouse]

I think COVID-19 may cause this board to spontaneously combust ;)

The underlying cause, for sure. The proximate reason is that there is no basketball in March.

[Steven43]

4 year player confirmed.
Could you be a little more specific?

[jipops]

Unqualified take:

Vernon - gone (duh)
Cassius - gone
Tre - gone (likely won't sniff a minute in the league, but gone anyways)
Wendell - back (NBA is not big on 6-6 guys who can't shoot)
Hurt - back (he is still catching up to the speed of the game, but he'll get there)
Goldwire - back (just a hunch)
O'Connell - back
Baker - back

[uh_no]

Unqualified take:

Vernon - gone (duh)
Cassius - gone
Tre - gone (likely won't sniff a minute in the league, but gone anyways)
Wendell - back (NBA is not big on 6-6 guys who can't shoot)
Hurt - back (he is still catching up to the speed of the game, but he'll get there)
Goldwire - back (just a hunch)
O'Connell - back
Baker - back

I still don't get this sentiment. Tre is a better player than tyus was in 2015 in almost every facet of the game, and Tyus STILL averaged 15 minutes in 37 games his rookie year. If that's not sniffing a minute...

[Furniture]

https://www.si.com/college/duke/basketball/joey-baker-says-hell-be-back-for-year-three?fbclid=IwAR1nSbEUsywe9oJrMfZIPZIYbIN-uns2XZaVGHsz9_tj3iTcTpzVBTR8bEY

[UrinalCake]

Great to hear Baker is returning! He made some big strides this season and if he continues to improve then he should be in the rotation amidst the highly talented freshmen. He always gave great effort, just needs to get more consistent on the defensive end and gain strength, all of which you would expect to happen. Would love to see him make what amounts to a sophomore year leap next season, similar to what Grayson and Luke did. In our system it is all about earning K’s trust, and so far he has done a lot towards having that next season.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Unqualified take:

Vernon - gone (duh)
Cassius - gone
Tre - gone (likely won't sniff a minute in the league, but gone anyways)
Wendell - back (NBA is not big on 6-6 guys who can't shoot)
Hurt - back (he is still catching up to the speed of the game, but he'll get there)
Goldwire - back (just a hunch)
O'Connell - back
Baker - back

This is my current thinking, besides the missive about Tre Jones. Jones, to me, is a lot like Marcus Smart. Smart couldn't shoot in college. He never cracked 30% from 3 in college but was a decent free throw shooter and was an absolute terror on defense. Jones is not quite as good defensively or as athletic as Smart. but he brings a lot to the table as a lead guard. And now Smart is a good shooter. Go figure.

Fred Van Vleet, Matthew Dellavadova, Smart, Jalen Brunson. There are a ton of guys that weren't great athletes but were great point guards in college that became valuable NBA players. I'm not sure Tre Jones joins that list, but I am not betting against him.

[proelitedota]

Could you be a little more specific?

Sorry it's my fever getting to me.

[sagegrouse]

This is my current thinking, besides the missive about Tre Jones. Jones, to me, is a lot like Marcus Smart. Smart couldn't shoot in college. He never cracked 30% from 3 in college but was a decent free throw shooter and was an absolute terror on defense. Jones is not quite as good defensively or as athletic as Smart. but he brings a lot to the table as a lead guard. And now Smart is a good shooter. Go figure.

Fred Van Vleet, Matthew Dellavadova, Smart, Jalen Brunson. There are a ton of guys that weren't great athletes but were great point guards in college that became valuable NBA players. I'm not sure Tre Jones joins that list, but I am not betting against him.

I think Tre will play in the NBA. He was, at times, an utter magician at Duke, including one of the most memorable plays in NCAA history. Those moments reflect great ability, not blind luck. Although all hoops players heights are exaggerated (allow for 1-2" for sneakers), he is three inches taller than his brother, and while listed as lighter, I expect he will be heavier and taller, which won't hurt among the mesomorphs of the NBA.

Shooting? It seems he made shots when he had to. Otherwise, point guards, who have the ball much of the time, more than occasionally have to force offense to beat the shot clock.

[scottdude8]

Great to hear Baker is returning! He made some big strides this season and if he continues to improve then he should be in the rotation amidst the highly talented freshmen. He always gave great effort, just needs to get more consistent on the defensive end and gain strength, all of which you would expect to happen. Would love to see him make what amounts to a sophomore year leap next season, similar to what Grayson and Luke did. In our system it is all about earning K’s trust, and so far he has done a lot towards having that next season.

Having upperclassmen is ALWAYS good. And Joey still has so much untapped potential. He’s shown flashes. Now he’s got a summer to put it all together, because there should be minutes available once again for a shooter.

Good news!!!

[dukelifer]

Unqualified take:

Vernon - gone (duh)
Cassius - gone
Tre - gone (likely won't sniff a minute in the league, but gone anyways)
Wendell - back (NBA is not big on 6-6 guys who can't shoot)
Hurt - back (he is still catching up to the speed of the game, but he'll get there)
Goldwire - back (just a hunch)
O'Connell - back
Baker - back

I agree with the list but I think you are selling Tre short. He will be a much better player in two years and his shot is not broken. He will improve and play in the league.

[kako]

Tre Jones can make it in the NBA. Case in point is Rajon Rondo. Here are his stats out of UK:

Rajon Rondo

Season School Conf G GS MP FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2004-05 Kentucky SEC 34 34 854 102 200 .510 92 167 .551 10 33 .303 60 103 .583 20 77 97 118 87 8 69 63 274
2005-06 Kentucky SEC 34 28 1054 147 305 .482 129 239 .540 18 66 .273 68 119 .571 37 172 209 167 69 5 79 70 380
Career Kentucky 68 62 1908 249 505 .493 221 406 .544 28 99 .283 128 222 .577 57 249 306 285 156 13 148 133 654

(Sorry about the formatting - here's the link (https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/rajon-rondo-1.html))

- Rondo was the 21st pick in the first round of the '06 draft.
- UK lost in the Elite 8 Rondo's freshman year.


Tre Jones:


Season School Conf G GS MP FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2018-19 Duke ACC 36 36 1230 132 319 .414 105 216 .486 27 103 .262 47 62 .758 32 103 135 192 68 6 53 56 338
2019-20 Duke ACC 29 29 1028 162 383 .423 123 275 .447 39 108 .361 108 140 .771 19 104 123 185 52 10 78 51 471
Career Duke 65 65 2258 294 702 .419 228 491 .464 66 211 .313 155 202 .767 51 207 258 377 120 16 131 107 809

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/tre-jones-1.html

(Really sorry about the formatting. I've tried for a half hour, and it still stinks. How do others do it?)

I could delve into the stats, but overall the give and take between the two players overall is fairly similar. Rondo couldn't really shoot at UK, but he was quick and played defense. Jones also could be accused of average shooting, but his defense is stellar, he's a huge leader and made arguably the highlight play of the year against Carolina. Rondo worked on his offense over the years, and he's had a 15-year career. There's no reason to think that Jones doesn't (and scouts don't) think he can get better. And teams will look at the Duke PG pedigree and give him a chance. I'm sure one of the reasons Duke submitted his name for ACC POY is to give him a boost in the draft - a big thank you for staying. And even though I think Carey should have been POY, I have no problem saying thank you to Jones. He produced well this year, and without him it's doubtful Duke would have beaten UNC in game 1 this year.

The other point about Jones leaving is that unless the NCAA changes scholarships for MBB next year, Duke won't have the scholarships available. Guys will have to leave as Duke's class next year, which has 6 new recruits. I seriously doubt the NCAA lets teams have 18 scholarships next year, coronavirus or not. The smaller schools will revolt if the majors keep a ton of star power. I think Jones, Carey and Stanley are gone, gone, gone, no matter what happens. We should wish them all well. I'd rather start talking about Roach, Johnson, Steward, Williams, Brakefield and Coleman.

9F

[flyingdutchdevil]

https://www.si.com/college/duke/basketball/joey-baker-says-hell-be-back-for-year-three?fbclid=IwAR1nSbEUsywe9oJrMfZIPZIYbIN-uns2XZaVGHsz9_tj3iTcTpzVBTR8bEY

This is news? Isn't this the equivalent of saying, "the sun will rise tomorrow!"? Or is Duke such an OAD school that even roster players between the 9-11 spot need to announce they are coming back?

Sigh...

[UrinalCake]

(Really sorry about the formatting. I've tried for a half hour, and it still stinks. How do others do it?)

Use the button that looks like pound sign, which has the hover text that says "Wrap Code tags around selected text." If you're on a mobile device and don't have all the formatting buttons, you'll have to display the page in Desktop mode which is usually an option along the top part of your browser. Anything inside the CODE tags will be displayed in a fixed-width font so the characters line up nicely. I think it's helpful to first type up your message in Notepad or something else that displays as a fixed width so you can see what it will look like. Then you can do cool stuff like this:


Name Minutes Points Rebounds
UrinalCake 35.1 42.3 20.0

As for the Rondo comparison, he might have been similar to Tre in terms of 3PT shooting percentage, but he was also an athletic freak who could get to the rim at will. Pretty much all of the non-shooting point guards in the league (Westbrook, Rondo, Ball, Ben Simmons) are either athletic freaks, have great size, or both. You can't be that much of an offensive liability in the league, regardless of how good a defender and passer you are.

I do think that Tre could make it onto a roster as a defensive specialist on a playoff team. He'll have to improve his offense, which he could certainly do over time in the league. I also think that his deficiencies are not things that will change by coming back to Duke for another season. If he chooses to stay it's because he loves Duke and wants to play here another year, not because it's going to improve his draft stock.

[Troublemaker]

This is news? Isn't this the equivalent of saying, "the sun will rise tomorrow!"? Or is Duke such an OAD school that even roster players between the 9-11 spot need to announce they are coming back?

Sigh...

Coming back rules out a transfer. That's on point and good news.

[UrinalCake]

This is news? Isn't this the equivalent of saying, "the sun will rise tomorrow!"? Or is Duke such an OAD school that even roster players between the 9-11 spot need to announce they are coming back?

I think it was more a question of whether he would consider transferring. Nice that he has squelched any such rumors before they could surface. I agree that it seems unnecessary to announce that you're staying, but it's not like he held a press conference or anything like that, it was just a simple statement that was released.

[devildeac]

Use the button that looks like pound sign, which has the hover text that says "Wrap Code tags around selected text." If you're on a mobile device and don't have all the formatting buttons, you'll have to display the page in Desktop mode which is usually an option along the top part of your browser. Anything inside the CODE tags will be displayed in a fixed-width font so the characters line up nicely. I think it's helpful to first type up your message in Notepad or something else that displays as a fixed width so you can see what it will look like. Then you can do cool stuff like this:


Name Minutes Points Rebounds
UrinalCake 35.1 42.3 20.0

As for the Rondo comparison, he might have been similar to Tre in terms of 3PT shooting percentage, but he was also an athletic freak who could get to the rim at will. Pretty much all of the non-shooting point guards in the league (Westbrook, Rondo, Ball, Ben Simmons) are either athletic freaks, have great size, or both. You can't be that much of an offensive liability in the league, regardless of how good a defender and passer you are.

I do think that Tre could make it onto a roster as a defensive specialist on a playoff team. He'll have to improve his offense, which he could certainly do over time in the league. I also think that his deficiencies are not things that will change by coming back to Duke for another season. If he chooses to stay it's because he loves Duke and wants to play here another year, not because it's going to improve his draft stock.


I'm calling bovine shenanigans on those stats.

;)

[scottdude8]

I think it was more a question of whether he would consider transferring. Nice that he has squelched any such rumors before they could surface. I agree that it seems unnecessary to announce that you're staying, but it's not like he held a press conference or anything like that, it was just a simple statement that was released.

Agreed. As I've mentioned before (when it came to the Zapruder film level analysis we were doing on Matt and Wendell's social media), I honestly believe these kids understand the age that we live in, where every minuscule thing on social media (or even a lack thereof) will be over analyzed and become fodder for the internet rumor mill. Joey likely wasn't oblivious to the fact that a lot of people (including some on this board!) had speculated he was a transfer possibility. Him coming out and squashing those rumors before they could gain legs is, I think, a great sign not only of his commitment to the program, but of his maturity as a young man.

I'm very excited to see what a junior Joey Baker (and remember, he really is a sophomore in terms of age/playing time, something we were all quick to forget this year!) can do, and I think there's a clear role for him on the team. With the way he provided energy this year I think he could potentially stake a claim to being a captain at some point in his Duke career.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Agreed. As I've mentioned before (when it came to the Zapruder film level analysis we were doing on Matt and Wendell's social media), I honestly believe these kids understand the age that we live in, where every minuscule thing on social media (or even a lack thereof) will be over analyzed and become fodder for the internet rumor mill. Joey likely wasn't oblivious to the fact that a lot of people (including some on this board!) had speculated he was a transfer possibility. Him coming out and squashing those rumors before they could gain legs is, I think, a great sign not only of his commitment to the program, but of his maturity as a young man.

I'm very excited to see what a junior Joey Baker (and remember, he really is a sophomore in terms of age/playing time, something we were all quick to forget this year!) can do, and I think there's a clear role for him on the team. With the way he provided energy this year I think he could potentially stake a claim to being a captain at some point in his Duke career.

Yeah, he's a sophomore/junior in terms of age (turns 20 in September), but he is definitely not a sophomore in terms of playing time. He has two years left, so he should think about playing like a junior and not a sophomore. Cus he ain't getting that first year back.

And for the record, I understand what you meant by "sophomore in terms of playing time"; his ridiculous burned redshirt meant he played 4 minutes as a freshman (exaggeration).

Baker needs to improve his defense, defense, defense, and more defense. Forget the playmaking; if he can be an excellent 3pt shooter with defensive chops, he'll add so much value and see so much time.

[sagegrouse]

Yeah, he's a sophomore/junior in terms of age (turns 20 in September), but he is definitely not a sophomore in terms of playing time. He has two years left, so he should think about playing like a junior and not a sophomore. Cus he ain't getting that first year back.

And for the record, I understand what you meant by "sophomore in terms of playing time"; his ridiculous burned redshirt meant he played 4 minutes as a freshman (exaggeration).

Baker needs to improve his defense, defense, defense, and more defense. Forget the playmaking; if he can be an excellent 3pt shooter with defensive chops, he'll add so much value and see so much time.

Joey Baker played 18 minutes of a potential 1,285 in 2018-2019, or 34 seconds per game.

[Music man55]

Baker,Goldwire,Moore,O'Connell,and Hurt provide a nice core of experience coming back for next season. (Keeping fingers crossed for Hurt).

[killerleft]

This is news? Isn't this the equivalent of saying, "the sun will rise tomorrow!"? Or is Duke such an OAD school that even roster players between the 9-11 spot need to announce they are coming back?

Sigh...

Yes, it IS news. He was gonna stay in college, but he might have transferred to another school. And very good news, too. It is obvious that he is very determined to be a standout basketball player, and a leader. It was fun to watch him several times on the sidelines, when he seemed ready to either tell Coach K to put him in, or maybe offer a little advice. Gotta love him.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Baker,Goldwire,Moore,O'Connell,and Hurt provide a nice core of experience coming back for next season. (Keeping fingers crossed for Hurt).

This foundation would be incredible. But I'm not expecting all five to return. I can't say which cus I don't know, but I'd be pleasantly shocked to see all 5 in a Duke jersey next year.

[JasonEvans]

This foundation would be incredible. But I'm not expecting all five to return. I can't say which cus I don't know, but I'd be pleasantly shocked to see all 5 in a Duke jersey next year.

Not saying it would be an ideal lineup, but if you merely had those 5 guys and added no one else, I suspect you would win more than half of your ACC games next year and make the big dance.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Not saying it would be an ideal lineup, but if you merely had those 5 guys and added no one else, I suspect you would win more than half of your ACC games next year and make the big dance.

Foundation. Not starting line up. Add all the frosh coming in, and that's a helluva deep roster.

[CDu]

Not saying it would be an ideal lineup, but if you merely had those 5 guys and added no one else, I suspect you would win more than half of your ACC games next year and make the big dance.

Maybe. That's probably relying on big jumps from Moore and Hurt, AND the conference being similarly bad next year as it was this year. I suspect that that five this year would probably NOT won half its ACC games, and thus would not have made the hypothetical NCAA tournament.

But, fortunately, likely only a few of those guys would start next year.

[dm9e24]

Holding out hope that if there is no combine that that pushes Cassius back to Duke. I know he is 20 years old, but right now he is looking at possible 2nd round money. Luke Kennard was in the same position after his freshman year. he came back and at 20 years old was making lottery pick money. Cassius could improve is ball handling, shooting, attacking the basket in the G league. But what if he did the same at Duke and put himself in a position to make lottery money at the old age of 21

He, Moore, Roach, Steward, Baker and Johnson would form formidable options 1-4

[Steven43]

And even though I think Carey should have been POY, I have no problem saying thank you to Jones.
As Lt. Cmdr. Joanne Galloway said in ‘A Few Good Men’ , “I STRENUOUSLY object!” I think Tre Jones was far more valuable to this team than was Vernon Carey.

In other words if you were to take Jones off the team Duke would have had a far worse season than if you were to take Carey off the team. Hence, Jones was more valuable.

[Pghdukie]

What's the latest on Hurt ? Staying or going ?

[flyingdutchdevil]

What's the latest on Hurt ? Staying or going ?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xMaE6toi4mk

[scottdude8]

Not saying it would be an ideal lineup, but if you merely had those 5 guys and added no one else, I suspect you would win more than half of your ACC games next year and make the big dance.

I would agree with that. We've seen over and over that experienced teams with chemistry can beat more talented in-experienced teams. Those five guys would be a fantastic core to build around, and I think all indications are we should have that group.

We could be looking again at a deep team next year if nothing unusual happens, but with the difference of having a true "lottery-caliber" talent in Jalen Johnson... not to mention the fact that a developed Wendell could also become a lottery talent.

Again, its all speculation at this point, but potentially we could have a team that's similarly deep, with superior talent on the wings but less talent in the post and at PG, next year. While the center position may be something we are concerned with all year, I think having both JG and Roach at the point will be a much better situation than many anticipate. Heck, if Jordan could have a senior season anything like Zavier Simpson did at Michigan (which is very feasible... Zavier was an experienced senior leader that specializes defensively but had offensive limitations that he found ways to overcome, and that also describes JG quite well... not to mention JG is a superior athlete to Zavier and has more size) we'd be in a pretty good place.

[Truth&Justise]

What's the latest on Hurt ? Staying or going ?



Red alert! Red alert! Slight change to Matthew Hurt’s Twitter bio!!!

https://twitter.com/bluedevilball1/status/1239728580470472704?s=21

Now we can overreact to some potentially good news as opposed to bad! ;)

It's going to be a long, long March.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I would agree with that. We've seen over and over that experienced teams with chemistry can beat more talented in-experienced teams. Those five guys would be a fantastic core to build around, and I think all indications are we should have that group.

We could be looking again at a deep team next year if nothing unusual happens, but with the difference of having a true "lottery-caliber" talent in Jalen Johnson... not to mention the fact that a developed Wendell could also become a lottery talent.

Again, its all speculation at this point, but potentially we could have a team that's similarly deep, with superior talent on the wings but less talent in the post and at PG, next year. While the center position may be something we are concerned with all year, I think having both JG and Roach at the point will be a much better situation than many anticipate. Heck, if Jordan could have a senior season anything like Zavier Simpson did at Michigan (which is very feasible... Zavier was an experienced senior leader that specializes defensively but had offensive limitations that he found ways to overcome, and that also describes JG quite well... not to mention JG is a superior athlete to Zavier and has more size) we'd be in a pretty good place.

I'm not worried about the PG position, even if Roach isn't ready and has a poor freshman year. JG has proved that he is ready at defense. We don't have to worry about guarding the PG position because JG is elite at it.

And playmaking? I assume Moore or one of the frosh will take care of that. JG isn't a natural playmaker, and that's okay. In today's basketball, you don't need a 1 to be a playmaker. You can share the responsibility.

[kAzE]

This foundation would be incredible. But I'm not expecting all five to return. I can't say which cus I don't know, but I'd be pleasantly shocked to see all 5 in a Duke jersey next year.

Would you really be shocked? None of those 5 guys has any business going pro right now. Obviously, the only two who have the potential to even be drafted are Hurt and Moore, and what would actually be shocking is to see either of them go higher than the 40th pick in the draft. I'd be more surprised if any of them go pro.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Would you really be shocked? None of those 5 guys has any business going pro right now. Obviously, the only two who have the potential to even be drafted are Hurt and Moore, and what would actually be shocking is to see either of them go higher than the 40th pick in the draft. I'd be more surprised if any of them go pro.

Transfers. Also, we've seen time and time again and players leave or transfer for a variety of reasons (Bolden, Trent Jr, Jackson, Semi O, Derryck, etc).

Odds are that one of those 5 (maybe more) will not be in a Duke jersey next year. The frosh provide a very crowded space and some players are doing to get squeezed.

[kako]

As Lt. Cmdr. Joanne Galloway said in ‘A Few Good Men’ , “I STRENUOUSLY object!” I think Tre Jones was far more valuable to this team than was Vernon Carey.

In other words if you were to take Jones off the team Duke would have had a far worse season than if you were to take Carey off the team. Hence, Jones was more valuable.

Well, maybe it's semantics. The award is Player Of The Year, not Most Valuable Player. Carey was so hard to stop in the post, defenses set up plans to stop him each game. Without a post threat in Carey, Duke would have been a much weaker team.

Anyway, I don't mean to take anything away from Jones. I just thought Carey was POY. One has to admit that it's great to have 2 options on your own team that were frontrunner candidates.

9F

[kako]

As for the Rondo comparison, he might have been similar to Tre in terms of 3PT shooting percentage, but he was also an athletic freak who could get to the rim at will. Pretty much all of the non-shooting point guards in the league (Westbrook, Rondo, Ball, Ben Simmons) are either athletic freaks, have great size, or both. You can't be that much of an offensive liability in the league, regardless of how good a defender and passer you are.

I do think that Tre could make it onto a roster as a defensive specialist on a playoff team. He'll have to improve his offense, which he could certainly do over time in the league. I also think that his deficiencies are not things that will change by coming back to Duke for another season. If he chooses to stay it's because he loves Duke and wants to play here another year, not because it's going to improve his draft stock.

Sure, Rondo was athletic. As I posted, it's a give and take. Jones was much more mature as a PG and proved himself so in 2 years. Yes, defensive stoppers can make teams, e.g. Tony Allen. If Jones became a Steph Stopper, he could have a full career.

I do think if Jones stayed another year and further improved his shooting, it would improve his draft position some. However, the risk/reward is steep and limiting. If he doesn't improve, his stock will fall drastically. I think he's gone.

9F

[scottdude8]

Transfers. Also, we've seen time and time again and players leave or transfer for a variety of reasons (Bolden, Trent Jr, Jackson, Semi O, Derryck, etc).

Odds are that one of those 5 (maybe more) will not be in a Duke jersey next year. The frosh provide a very crowded space and some players are doing to get squeezed.

I'm just not sure where the transfer possibility lies. Hurt came into the year likely expecting to be a OaD, but the reality didn't match that expectation. If he transfers (assuming he doesn't get a waiver, which I can't see a reason as to why he would) he'd be committing to waiting two more years before going into the draft. Not only would that pose its own problems, but with the likelihood that the OaD rule ends in the near future, he'd be basically committing himself to entering what would likely be a stronger than usual draft class. That doesn't seem to make much sense if the NBA is the end goal.

Meanwhile, for AoC, he's a rising senior who is a Duke legacy. Yes, he might be frustrated with his PT, but he's had many opportunities, and it's clear there will be more such opportunities next year. Does it make sense for him to eschew a senior night at Duke to have to sit out a year and then play one year at a lesser school? Especially given that his father also played for Duke, that doesn't seem to make much sense (side note: I think if AoC was going to consider transferring, last year summer was the time. Now he's essentially "pot committed").

Now, Hurt may decide he's frustrated at Duke and wants to go try to make his way as an NBA second rounder. But I don't think a transfer makes much sense. But then again, a lot of young men do things that don't make sense from an external point of view, so who knows.

[kAzE]

I'm just not sure where the transfer possibility lies. Hurt came into the year likely expecting to be a OaD, but the reality didn't match that expectation. If he transfers (assuming he doesn't get a waiver, which I can't see a reason as to why he would) he'd be committing to waiting two more years before going into the draft. Not only would that pose its own problems, but with the likelihood that the OaD rule ends in the near future, he'd be basically committing himself to entering what would likely be a stronger than usual draft class. That doesn't seem to make much sense if the NBA is the end goal.

Meanwhile, for AoC, he's a rising senior who is a Duke legacy. Yes, he might be frustrated with his PT, but he's had many opportunities, and it's clear there will be more such opportunities next year. Does it make sense for him to eschew a senior night at Duke to have to sit out a year and then play one year at a lesser school? Especially given that his father also played for Duke, that doesn't seem to make much sense (side note: I think if AoC was going to consider transferring, last year summer was the time. Now he's essentially "pot committed").

Now, Hurt may decide he's frustrated at Duke and wants to go try to make his way as an NBA second rounder. But I don't think a transfer makes much sense. But then again, a lot of young men do things that don't make sense from an external point of view, so who knows.

Matthew Hurt, from an improvement and playing time standpoint seems to have the most to gain from returning to Duke. He showed some incredible flashes during his freshman year, and with more consistency and improved defense, could be an All-ACC type of player next season. I do think it's possible that Wendell Moore decides to take his chances as a second rounder, since he also said at one point that he intended to be a one and done. Furthermore, Jalen Johnson is basically a much better version of him, and could possibly eat into his playing time.

I really don't want to speculate about transfers, but I do agree with the sheer number of players incoming that it's possible. I hope not.

[907bluedevils]

I'm not worried about the PG position, even if Roach isn't ready and has a poor freshman year. JG has proved that he is ready at defense. We don't have to worry about guarding the PG position because JG is elite at it.

And playmaking? I assume Moore or one of the frosh will take care of that. JG isn't a natural playmaker, and that's okay. In today's basketball, you don't need a 1 to be a playmaker. You can share the responsibility.

i get worried about JG due to his limited offensive contributions. We saw it this year with issues being able to score, hopefully he builds off this year and becomes a more consistent catch and 3 shooter over the summer.

[sagegrouse]

Matthew Hurt, from an improvement and playing time standpoint seems to have the most to gain from returning to Duke. He showed some incredible flashes during his freshman year, and with more consistency and improved defense, could be an All-ACC type of player next season. I do think it's possible that Wendell Moore decides to take his chances as a second rounder, since he also said at one point that he intended to be a one and done. Furthermore, Jalen Johnson is basically a much better version of him, and could possibly eat into his playing time.

I really don't want to speculate about transfers, but I do agree with the sheer number of players incoming that it's possible. I hope not.

Wendell is hinting at returning. "Though Moore has not given confirmation of his plan, the 6-foot-6, 215-pound small forward did hop on Snapchat over the weekend to post a picture of Coach K Court with the following cryptic message: "it's not a goodbye...just a see you later ❤∞.""

[Lifted from Ball Durham]

[Nrrrrvous]

Well, no live ball games, no sports on TV, no movies, no restaurants, no concerts.

Just message boards.

And binge-watching.

What could possibly go wrong? :)

10386

[jimsumner]

. I do think it's possible that Wendell Moore decides to take his chances as a second rounder, since he also said at one point that he intended to be a one and done. Furthermore, Jalen Johnson is basically a much better version of him, and could possibly eat into his playing time.



I don't think Duke would have any trouble playing Johnson and Moore together next season. Johnson is a 6-8 3/4, Moore a 6-6 2/3. Highly unlikely, IMO, that Johnson eats into Moore's playing time.

I see a sophomore Moore developing into an All-ACC player at the least, with the real possibility he would be in the ACC POY mix. He just oozes potential. Once he figures it out.

[UrinalCake]

(side note: I think if AoC was going to consider transferring, last year summer was the time. Now he's essentially "pot committed").

There does exist the possibility of him doing a grad transfer, assuming he has the credits. And to be honest, it wouldn't surprise me if he did. I certainly hope he stays, like Baker he showed moments of growth this season and I think he was really working on expanding his game outside of 3pt shooting. Having depth on the wing, especially guys who can shoot, is always a good thing.

[JasonEvans]

I'm just not sure where the transfer possibility lies. Hurt came into the year likely expecting to be a OaD, but the reality didn't match that expectation. If he transfers (assuming he doesn't get a waiver, which I can't see a reason as to why he would) he'd be committing to waiting two more years before going into the draft. Not only would that pose its own problems, but with the likelihood that the OaD rule ends in the near future, he'd be basically committing himself to entering what would likely be a stronger than usual draft class. That doesn't seem to make much sense if the NBA is the end goal.

Meanwhile, for AoC, he's a rising senior who is a Duke legacy. Yes, he might be frustrated with his PT, but he's had many opportunities, and it's clear there will be more such opportunities next year. Does it make sense for him to eschew a senior night at Duke to have to sit out a year and then play one year at a lesser school? Especially given that his father also played for Duke, that doesn't seem to make much sense (side note: I think if AoC was going to consider transferring, last year summer was the time. Now he's essentially "pot committed").

Now, Hurt may decide he's frustrated at Duke and wants to go try to make his way as an NBA second rounder. But I don't think a transfer makes much sense. But then again, a lot of young men do things that don't make sense from an external point of view, so who knows.

Before society went into the @#$^@&!@ there was a lot of talk that the NCAA was fast-tracking for this summer a new rule which would allow players to transfer one time without sitting out at all. So, Hurt or anyone else who wanted more guaranteed playing time could leave and be immediately eligible.

I have no idea, in this brave new world, if the rule change will happen nor do I have any idea if players from Duke would be interested in taking advantage of it. But, it needs to factor into the calculus as we think about the 2020-21 roster.

-Jason "of note, while players could leave Duke, other players could transfer in without sitting out at all... which could be very interesting" Evans

[Steven43]

Without a post threat in Carey, Duke would have been a much weaker team.

That’s debatable. Without Carey Duke would have played a much different style, particularly on offense. They would have had more outside shooters in the game at all times, would have shot more 3-pts, and played at a faster tempo. On defense they would have defended the basket with a rotating combination of players to make up for Carey’s absence.

I think without Carey it would have been more like Golden State Warriors 2018 style versus with Carey being more Detroit Pistons 2018 style. Crude comparisons for sure, but I think you get what I’m saying. It would have been interesting to see how it played out. Of course, we didn’t even get to see this season fully play out, which is very sad.

[uh_no]

What's the latest on Hurt ? Staying or going ?

anyone checked his twitter later?

[Truth&Justise]

I do think it's possible that Wendell Moore decides to take his chances as a second rounder, since he also said at one point that he intended to be a one and done. Furthermore, Jalen Johnson is basically a much better version of him, and could possibly eat into his playing time.

I think it's very unlikely that Moore goes pro for one simple reason: that 21.1% from three is weighing him down like an anchor. NBA teams will not draft a wing who shoots that poorly--unless he is other-worldly at other parts of the game, and Moore just isn't that yet.

It's possible Moore could have shown a better shooting stroke in workouts and combines to improve his draft position, but who knows if any of that will happen this year. So really, his only path forward is to stay in school and try to improve that percentage next year. Since he's an 80% free throw shooter, I believe it will get better.

Honestly, that shooting percentage may be a blessing in disguise for Duke, as I believe Moore can be a real star in college.

[mattyoung18]

I think Carey is the only 1 player that should consider leaving.Unfortunately all the players see are $ signs while they are throwing away hundreds of thousands worth of education on and off the court.I miss the days of players that want to get better playing college ball.

[MChambers]

Holding out hope that if there is no combine that that pushes Cassius back to Duke. I know he is 20 years old, but right now he is looking at possible 2nd round money. Luke Kennard was in the same position after his freshman year. he came back and at 20 years old was making lottery pick money. Cassius could improve is ball handling, shooting, attacking the basket in the G league. But what if he did the same at Duke and put himself in a position to make lottery money at the old age of 21

He, Moore, Roach, Steward, Baker and Johnson would form formidable options 1-4

If Cassius wants to go to the NBA now, I hope he can. I'm sure it's his dream.

[jaywilliams22]

Seth Towns - harvard transfer receiving Duke interest

https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/status/1240311193283297281?s=20

[Truth&Justise]

Without a post threat in Carey, Duke would have been a much weaker team.


That’s debatable. Without Carey Duke would have played a much different style, particularly on offense. They would have had more outside shooters in the game at all times, would have shot more 3-pts, and played at a faster tempo. On defense they would have defended the basket with a rotating combination of players to make up for Carey’s absence.

I think without Carey it would have been more like Golden State Warriors 2018 style versus with Carey being more Detroit Pistons 2018 style. Crude comparisons for sure, but I think you get what I’m saying. It would have been interesting to see how it played out. Of course, we didn’t even get to see this season fully play out, which is very sad.

Going to disagree hard with this take that Duke could have been better without Carey. Without him we'd have played Javin as our primary center--and maybe Bolden would have stayed. That would not have gotten us to the "five out" basketball you're talking about. We would have played the same style, just with worse scoring and rebounding.

And as good as Carey is, if there was a 2018 Warriors team lurking below the surface without him, K would have found it. Playing one traditional big does not mean Duke was behind the times (a la the 2018 Pistons). And do you think there are any reasons Carey was first on the depth chart, ahead of Javin, Justin Robinson and Matthew Hurt?

So yeah, I'll go out on a limb and defend the idea that Duke was a better team with ACC FOTY and All-American candidate Vernon Carey.

[scottdude8]

anyone checked his twitter later?

He added "Duke basketball" back into his bio. And apparently him, Cassius and Severino have been playing video games together. That is all the internet stalking of teenagers I feel comfortable doing, so I will leave it at that.

[dukelifer]

That’s debatable. Without Carey Duke would have played a much different style, particularly on offense. They would have had more outside shooters in the game at all times, would have shot more 3-pts, and played at a faster tempo. On defense they would have defended the basket with a rotating combination of players to make up for Carey’s absence.

I think without Carey it would have been more like Golden State Warriors 2018 style versus with Carey being more Detroit Pistons 2018 style. Crude comparisons for sure, but I think you get what I’m saying. It would have been interesting to see how it played out. Of course, we didn’t even get to see this season fully play out, which is very sad.

Yes- if we had Steph and Klay in the back court- Duke would have done just fine.

[CDu]

Seth Towns - harvard transfer receiving Duke interest

https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/status/1240311193283297281?s=20

Interesting player. Good shooter. But at 6'7" 215, he would seem to create more of a logjam at the forward spot. Unless the team plans to go all in on the "Bobby Knight All-6'6"/6'8" guy" lineup.

[mattman91]

Interesting player. Good shooter. But at 6'7" 215, he would seem to create more of a logjam at the forward spot. Unless the team plans to go all in on the "Bobby Knight All-6'6"/6'8" guy" lineup.


Johnson
Moore
Towns
Baker
Hurt


Sounds exciting. Should be fun to (maybe) watch on TV in January, played in an empty Cameron Indoor.

[Steven43]

Going to disagree hard with this take that Duke could have been better without Carey. Without him we'd have played Javin as our primary center--and maybe Bolden would have stayed. That would not have gotten us to the "five out" basketball you're talking about. We would have played the same style, just with worse scoring and rebounding.

And as good as Carey is, if there was a 2018 Warriors team lurking below the surface without him, K would have found it. Playing one traditional big does not mean Duke was behind the times (a la the 2018 Pistons). And do you think there are any reasons Carey was first on the depth chart, ahead of Javin, Justin Robinson and Matthew Hurt?

So yeah, I'll go out on a limb and defend the idea that Duke was a better team with ACC FOTY and All-American candidate Vernon Carey.
My goodness, you clearly did not interpret my post accurately. I merely said it’s “debatable” that without a post threat in Carey, Duke would have been a MUCH WEAKER TEAM (the words of another poster).

I suggest it would be best to respond to what is actually written rather than putting words into the mouths of posters that were never said.

[Steven43]

Yes- if we had Steph and Klay in the back court- Duke would have done just fine.

I was talking about style of play, not individual players.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Interesting player. Good shooter. But at 6'7" 215, he would seem to create more of a logjam at the forward spot. Unless the team plans to go all in on the "Bobby Knight All-6'6"/6'8" guy" lineup.

Yeah. If he was a 5, I’d be more optimistic.

Also, if you’re a coveted transfer, wouldn’t you want a program where you’re basically guaranteed a starting - maybe even starring - role on a good/great team?

Lots of players at the 3/4 next year, with or without Moore.

[killerleft]

I don't think Duke would have any trouble playing Johnson and Moore together next season. Johnson is a 6-8 3/4, Moore a 6-6 2/3. Highly unlikely, IMO, that Johnson eats into Moore's playing time.

I see a sophomore Moore developing into an All-ACC player at the least, with the real possibility he would be in the ACC POY mix. He just oozes potential. Once he figures it out.

I'm glad that came from you, Jim. If I'd said it, people would start throwing tomatoes. He is almost impossible to put in a box. He is kind of like a poor man's Luol Deng. So much fun to watch. I sure hope he comes back.

[Dukehky]

Yeah. If he was a 5, I’d be more optimistic.

Also, if you’re a coveted transfer, wouldn’t you want a program where you’re basically guaranteed a starting - maybe even starring - role on a good/great team?

Lots of players at the 3/4 next year, with or without Moore.

I think this is probably due diligence with a kid Duke will have some good information on in the event that one or more of the wings makes a decision in short order. It sounds and looks like OSU, NOVA, and UVA are really gunning for the kid.

I agree with FDD, I don't think he's looking to come to Duke and compete with all of Steward, AOC, Stanley, and Moore/Baker/Hurt.

FWIW, Johnson isn't competing with anyone for minutes. That dude is incredible.

Assuming there is a 2020-2021 basketball season, that is....

[Steven43]

Going to disagree hard with this take that Duke could have been better without Carey.
You know, I just reread your post and realized you wrote “could” rather than “would” (which is what I mistakenly thought you had written). That changes things. I would like to officially take back my sort of snarky comment to you. You didn’t deserve that.

Now then, as to who comes back and who doesn’t, I desperately want Cassius Stanley to have a sophomore season at Duke. Matthew Hurt, also. That’s my wish list. 😊

[DukieInBrasil]

I'm glad that came from you, Jim. If I'd said it, people would start throwing tomatoes. He is almost impossible to put in a box. He is kind of like a poor man's Luol Deng. So much fun to watch. I sure hope he comes back.

Deng was 6'10, Moore is 6'6. And Deng was a surprisingly good 3pt shooter, which Moore was not this year. Deng was also not a turnover machine like Moore was this past year.
I like Moore's versatility, particularly on defense, and sometimes he shows signs of being a good offensive player. I just don't think Deng is a particularly good comparison because Deng was better on offense at everything compared to Moore, and his defensive versatility was comparable. Moore makes me think more of Chris Carawell, and if Wendell's career path follows that of Chris's, i'd be ecstatic!

[killerleft]

Deng was 6'10, Moore is 6'6. And Deng was a surprisingly good 3pt shooter, which Moore was not this year. Deng was also not a turnover machine like Moore was this past year.
I like Moore's versatility, particularly on defense, and sometimes he shows signs of being a good offensive player. I just don't think Deng is a particularly good comparison because Deng was better on offense at everything compared to Moore, and his defensive versatility was comparable. Moore makes me think more of Chris Carawell, and if Wendell's career path follows that of Chris's, i'd be ecstatic!

I was thinking more that both players did not fit into any mold, and that Moore is unlike anyone I've seen in a Duke uniform. He plays with an exuberance that, this year, caused him to get into trouble on offense.

Carawell would work for me, too. That's a heck of a goal for Wendell. But Chris was a straight-up tough guy. Moore is still evolving, maybe into something different. I can't figure out exactly what, but I sure hope we get to find out while he's at Duke.

[Kedsy]

As for the Rondo comparison, he might have been similar to Tre in terms of 3PT shooting percentage, but he was also an athletic freak who could get to the rim at will. Pretty much all of the non-shooting point guards in the league (Westbrook, Rondo, Ball, Ben Simmons) are either athletic freaks, have great size, or both. You can't be that much of an offensive liability in the league, regardless of how good a defender and passer you are.

In addition to his athleticism, Rondo reportedly has a 6'9" wingspan. That alone weakens the draft comparison for Tre Jones (6'4" wingspan), and Rondo only went #21.

[Troublemaker]

Rondo also is a career 60% FT shooter while Tre was high-70s / 80% at Duke and in high school. That's a huge difference, of course, with the implication to scouts being that Tre has better shooting touch (the clay that can be molded/honed into a 3-pt shooter) than Rondo. Overall, not a fan of the Rondo comparison for all the reasons already listed.

[superdave]

Yeah. If he was a 5, I’d be more optimistic.

Also, if you’re a coveted transfer, wouldn’t you want a program where you’re basically guaranteed a starting - maybe even starring - role on a good/great team?

Lots of players at the 3/4 next year, with or without Moore.

Any big guys out there for transfer? That's the need - 20 minutes from an established veteran who can play the 5.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Any big guys out there for transfer? That's the need - 20 minutes from an established veteran who can play the 5.

If you want to see who is in the transfer portal, Verbal Commits (http://verbalcommits.com/transfers/2020?division=D1) has a running list that gets updated frequently each day. A couple of centers and forwards pop out to me:

Hayden Koval, 7'0" C, Central Arkansas: He's a career 34% 3P%/ 73% FT%, looks fairly mobile with a reasonable post game or can hit a step-back jumper. He averaged about 3 blocks per game, too. He could be useful, although I am not sure if he is immediately eligible as a grad transfer. He might be a sit one/play one type.

Taurean Thompson, 6'11" F, Syracuse, Seton Hall: After a promising freshman season for the Orange where he averaged 9 points and a block per game, Thompson transferred to Seton Hall and sort of got lost. He only played in 1 game this year for the Pirates. A former Top 100 recruit, Thompson is immediately elligible.

Patrick Tape, 6'10" F/C, Columbia: From Charlotte, Tape got an expanded role in 2019-20 and turned about 22 minutes a game into better than 11 points, 6 rebounds, an assist, a steal, and a block per game. He seems like a near perfect fit for Duke from an athletic and academic standpoint and a guy that probably wouldn't expect to be more than a role player. Immediately eligible.

Jordan Bruner, 6'9" F, Yale: Speaking of the Ivy League, Bruner is a rugged and athletic forward that gives you a bit of everything. He's had knee issues and may elect to go pro in Europe. But he added a 3-point shot to his game this past season for the Bulldogs (32.3% on 3+ attempts per game) and also gives you interior scoring and some shot blocking. He's an excellent rebounder and passer for a big man, too. I expect he'll be in high demand.

[dukelifer]

If you want to see who is in the transfer portal, Verbal Commits (http://verbalcommits.com/transfers/2020?division=D1) has a running list that gets updated frequently each day. A couple of centers and forwards pop out to me:

Hayden Koval, 7'0" C, Central Arkansas: He's a career 34% 3P%/ 73% FT%, looks fairly mobile with a reasonable post game or can hit a step-back jumper. He averaged about 3 blocks per game, too. He could be useful, although I am not sure if he is immediately eligible as a grad transfer. He might be a sit one/play one type.

Taurean Thompson, 6'11" F, Syracuse, Seton Hall: After a promising freshman season for the Orange where he averaged 9 points and a block per game, Thompson transferred to Seton Hall and sort of got lost. He only played in 1 game this year for the Pirates. A former Top 100 recruit, Thompson is immediately elligible.

Patrick Tape, 6'10" F/C, Columbia: From Charlotte, Tape got an expanded role in 2019-20 and turned about 22 minutes a game into better than 11 points, 6 rebounds, an assist, a steal, and a block per game. He seems like a near perfect fit for Duke from an athletic and academic standpoint and a guy that probably wouldn't expect to be more than a role player. Immediately eligible.

Jordan Bruner, 6'9" F, Yale: Speaking of the Ivy League, Bruner is a rugged and athletic forward that gives you a bit of everything. He's had knee issues and may elect to go pro in Europe. But he added a 3-point shot to his game this past season for the Bulldogs (32.3% on 3+ attempts per game) and also gives you interior scoring and some shot blocking. He's an excellent rebounder and passer for a big man, too. I expect he'll be in high demand.

Bruner would be a great fit (and a graduate from a top University to boot) - a bit like Amile and he has played in Cameron! K needs to make a big play for him. He could get a lot of PT at Duke.

[Jaks19]

The difficulty with grad transfers is "expectations". Lots of them move on from one program to another and have some ideal situation that they would like be in. Playing time, position, playing style, exposure and impact. It's hard for a player to leave a program where they were successful and had a big role on a team to come to anther team for a limited role such as a back up or playing behind a stud. I think it's all about the mind set and the foundation of why the player is moving colleges.

My example is Joe Cremo. He was highly sought after as a grad transfer and picked a program where he thought he might have a greater chance to show his abilities, but it didn't work out that way. An di used this example as a player who transferred as a coming of the bench player; not a starter

But my point is the expectation the player has set in his mind and that of the program in which he attends has to not only match, but there needs to be the buy in.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

If you want to see who is in the transfer portal, Verbal Commits (http://verbalcommits.com/transfers/2020?division=D1) has a running list that gets updated frequently each day. A couple of centers and forwards pop out to me:

Hayden Koval, 7'0" C, Central Arkansas: He's a career 34% 3P%/ 73% FT%, looks fairly mobile with a reasonable post game or can hit a step-back jumper. He averaged about 3 blocks per game, too. He could be useful, although I am not sure if he is immediately eligible as a grad transfer. He might be a sit one/play one type.

Taurean Thompson, 6'11" F, Syracuse, Seton Hall: After a promising freshman season for the Orange where he averaged 9 points and a block per game, Thompson transferred to Seton Hall and sort of got lost. He only played in 1 game this year for the Pirates. A former Top 100 recruit, Thompson is immediately elligible.

Patrick Tape, 6'10" F/C, Columbia: From Charlotte, Tape got an expanded role in 2019-20 and turned about 22 minutes a game into better than 11 points, 6 rebounds, an assist, a steal, and a block per game. He seems like a near perfect fit for Duke from an athletic and academic standpoint and a guy that probably wouldn't expect to be more than a role player. Immediately eligible.

Jordan Bruner, 6'9" F, Yale: Speaking of the Ivy League, Bruner is a rugged and athletic forward that gives you a bit of everything. He's had knee issues and may elect to go pro in Europe. But he added a 3-point shot to his game this past season for the Bulldogs (32.3% on 3+ attempts per game) and also gives you interior scoring and some shot blocking. He's an excellent rebounder and passer for a big man, too. I expect he'll be in high demand.

The numbers you reference for Tape were in the 18-19 season. Right before the 19-20 season began (late October) he quit the team and sat out this year to become eligible for a grad year in 20-21. I am fairly sure that he was healthy. He has spent much of the season shopping himself to other schools, and I don't think that Duke has been on that list, though you never know what is happening behind the scenes.

[brevity]

We've got to create a Transfer Portal thread and move these posts over there.


Hayden Koval, 7'0" C, Central Arkansas: He's a career 34% 3P%/ 73% FT%, looks fairly mobile with a reasonable post game or can hit a step-back jumper. He averaged about 3 blocks per game, too. He could be useful, although I am not sure if he is immediately eligible as a grad transfer. He might be a sit one/play one type.

Duke played Central Arkansas this (last?) season. GoDuke has a recap here (https://goduke.com/news/2019/11/12/mens-basketball-no-2-duke-rolls-past-central-arkansas-105-54-for-3-0-start.aspx). Click over to the box score and you'll see Hayden Koval played 33 minutes and had 6 points, 4 rebounds, 4 blocks, 2 assists, and 2 steals with 1 foul and 2 turnovers.

[fgb]

We've got to create a Transfer Portal thread and move these posts over there.



Duke played Central Arkansas this (last?) season. GoDuke has a recap here (https://goduke.com/news/2019/11/12/mens-basketball-no-2-duke-rolls-past-central-arkansas-105-54-for-3-0-start.aspx). Click over to the box score and you'll see Hayden Koval played 33 minutes and had 6 points, 4 rebounds, 4 blocks, 2 assists, and 2 steals with 1 foul and 2 turnovers.

Not a bad stat line, given who they were playing.

[JasonEvans]

We've got to create a Transfer Portal thread and move these posts over there.

Done: https://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?45054-2020-Offfseason-transfer-thread

Please continue the discussion of transfer prospects in that thread.

[FerryFor50]

Deng was 6'10, Moore is 6'6. And Deng was a surprisingly good 3pt shooter, which Moore was not this year. Deng was also not a turnover machine like Moore was this past year.
I like Moore's versatility, particularly on defense, and sometimes he shows signs of being a good offensive player. I just don't think Deng is a particularly good comparison because Deng was better on offense at everything compared to Moore, and his defensive versatility was comparable. Moore makes me think more of Chris Carawell, and if Wendell's career path follows that of Chris's, i'd be ecstatic!

Deng was listed at 6'8" when he played at Duke and is listed as 6'9" now.
https://247sports.com/Player/Luol-Deng-68093/college-119918/

So the Moore comparison isn't that far off, height-wise.

But Moore definitely isn't the same level of scorer that Deng was. But he is a better passer than Deng was. Carrawell is a decent comparison, or even Nate James.

[CDu]

Deng was listed at 6'8" when he played at Duke and is listed as 6'9" now.
https://247sports.com/Player/Luol-Deng-68093/college-119918/

So the Moore comparison isn't that far off, height-wise.

But Moore definitely isn't the same level of scorer that Deng was. But he is a better passer than Deng was. Carrawell is a decent comparison, or even Nate James.

Yeah, I don't see any reasonable comparison between Deng and Moore. Very different skill sets, and Deng was just SOOOOOO much better a player overall. I would suggest a cross between Carrawell and Winslow, but closer to Carrawell.

[dm9e24]

Carrawell, for sure

[wilson]

The G-League has announced that there will be no resumption of their season even when the pandemic dust eventually settles (https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28908561/sources-g-league-year-expected-cancelled). Wondering what ripple effects that might have on rosters, pay, etc., and the decision-making process of would-be early entrants who've come to see the league as a viable backup/development option in recent years.

[Natty_B]

IMO The Athletic has one of the better mock drafts because Sam Vecenie makes an effort to talk with front offices. A new mock is up today:

https://theathletic.com/1684759/2020/03/19/vecenie-2020-nba-mock-draft-version-4-0-frozen-in-time/

23. Jones
26. Carey Jr.
33. Stanley

In the comments somebody asks about Hurt getting drafted and Vecenie replies:

Yeah sure, if he decides to leave Duke, that's very possible. I had him staying in college in some capacity (don't know that I'd be stunned with a transfer given the way his role diminished late in the year, and Duke's options coming in at the 4).

[UrinalCake]

I trust Vecine, but Carey at 26 seems way too low. His ceiling is Joel Embiid.

[Steven43]

IMO The Athletic has one of the better mock drafts because Sam Vecenie makes an effort to talk with front offices. A new mock is up today:

https://theathletic.com/1684759/2020/03/19/vecenie-2020-nba-mock-draft-version-4-0-frozen-in-time/

23. Jones
26. Carey Jr.
33. Stanley

In the comments somebody asks about Hurt getting drafted and Vecenie replies:

Yeah sure, if he decides to leave Duke, that's very possible. I had him staying in college in some capacity (don't know that I'd be stunned with a transfer given the way his role diminished late in the year, and Duke's options coming in at the 4).

Transfer??!!!

[dukelifer]

I trust Vecine, but Carey at 26 seems way too low. His ceiling is Joel Embiid.

Not according to Joel Embiid who claims himself to be the best basketball player in the world.

[UrinalCake]

Transfer??!!!

Yeah, it doesn't make sense that Vecine says that Hurt could be drafted, and simultaneously says he would consider a transfer. Why would he stay in college two more seasons if he was even a borderline second round pick?

[CDu]

I trust Vecine, but Carey at 26 seems way too low. His ceiling is Joel Embiid.

Their skill sets are similar, but Embiid is 2-3 inches taller with a wingspan edge of like 7 inches. He can play over defenders in a way that Carey can’t.

[Troublemaker]

I trust Vecine, but Carey at 26 seems way too low. His ceiling is Joel Embiid.

DBR is really bad with player comparisons :-)

Embiid has a higher ceiling than Vernon at everything except perhaps staying healthy. Embiid has Hall-of-Fame talent, and Vernon will be a backup center.

[scottdude8]

Yeah, it doesn't make sense that Vecine says that Hurt could be drafted, and simultaneously says he would consider a transfer. Why would he stay in college two more seasons if he was even a borderline second round pick?

My thoughts exactly, especially since I imagine any changes to the transfer rules (getting rid of the waiting year) isn’t gonna happen soon considering the focus on COVID. Hurt may leave (we all hope he doesn’t!) but I‘d personally be surprised if it’ll be to transfer.

[DukieInKansas]

Their skill sets are similar, but Embiid is 2-3 inches taller with a wingspan edge of like 7 inches. He can play over defenders in a way that Carey can’t.

I'm curious about the 7 inch wingspan. I don't remember him looking like a T.Rex. :D

[jimsumner]

I'm curious about the 7 inch wingspan. I don't remember him looking like a T.Rex. :D

I think you missed the word "edge."

[UrinalCake]

DBR is really bad with player comparisons :-)

Embiid has a higher ceiling than Vernon at everything except perhaps staying healthy. Embiid has Hall-of-Fame talent, and Vernon will be a backup center.

When I say ceiling, I'm talking about the best possible outcome. And I think there exists a universe in which Carey averages 24 points and 11.5 boards like Embiid did this past season. It's not the most likely scenario, but the potential is there. And I'm not sure you can say that about 25 other players.

Anyways, I would love for the low draft projection to cause him to return to Duke, but he also has to ask whether anything is likely to change a year from now. He's already accomplished almost all he could at the college level, and the NBA isn't going to suddenly start valuing non-mobile centers. The only way for him to improve his stock is by showcasing his perimeter game, but if he returns he'll be primarily used in the low post again.

[lotusland]

When I say ceiling, I'm talking about the best possible outcome. And I think there exists a universe in which Carey averages 24 points and 11.5 boards like Embiid did this past season. It's not the most likely scenario, but the potential is there. And I'm not sure you can say that about 25 other players.

Anyways, I would love for the low draft projection to cause him to return to Duke, but he also has to ask whether anything is likely to change a year from now. He's already accomplished almost all he could at the college level, and the NBA isn't going to suddenly start valuing non-mobile centers. The only way for him to improve his stock is by showcasing his perimeter game, but if he returns he'll be primarily used in the low post again.

Who is a mobile center if Carrey is non-mobile? I thought the knock on Carrey was only average length and shot blocking ability. He’s not Bagley but Carrey moves pretty well for a guy his size.

[Fish80]

Who is a mobile center if Carrey is non-mobile? I thought the knock on Carrey was only average length and shot blocking ability. He’s not Bagley but Carrey moves pretty well for a guy his size.

Too many rr’s. It’s Carey.

[DukieInKansas]

I think you missed the word "edge."

Yes, I did. But now I'm always going to picture him as a TRex.

[Troublemaker]

When I say ceiling, I'm talking about the best possible outcome. And I think there exists a universe in which Carey averages 24 points and 11.5 boards like Embiid did this past season. It's not the most likely scenario, but the potential is there. And I'm not sure you can say that about 25 other players.

Anyways, I would love for the low draft projection to cause him to return to Duke, but he also has to ask whether anything is likely to change a year from now. He's already accomplished almost all he could at the college level, and the NBA isn't going to suddenly start valuing non-mobile centers. The only way for him to improve his stock is by showcasing his perimeter game, but if he returns he'll be primarily used in the low post again.

I understand what "ceiling" means as I use the word often. But when we're talking about a range of outcomes, even Vernon's 99th percentile outcome does not include being as good as Embiid (or averaging 24/11.5). I think the disconnect here is perhaps you not realizing how average Vernon's physical tools are. For example, even Steven Adams, an average starting center, is more athletic and longer than Vernon. And then when you compare Vernon to Embiid, arguably the best center in the league (when healthy) with amazing physical tools, it becomes a bit of a joke.

[MarkD83]

I understand what "ceiling" means as I use the word often. But when we're talking about a range of outcomes, even Vernon's 99th percentile outcome does not include being as good as Embiid (or averaging 24/11.5). I think the disconnect here is perhaps you not realizing how average Vernon's physical tools are. For example, even Steven Adams, an average starting center, is more athletic and longer than Vernon. And then when you compare Vernon to Embiid, arguably the best center in the league (when healthy) with amazing physical tools, it becomes a bit of a joke.

roof (and not Ted)

[luvdahops]

Who is a mobile center if Carrey is non-mobile? I thought the knock on Carrey was only average length and shot blocking ability. He’s not Bagley but Carrey moves pretty well for a guy his size.

From what I can tell, the biggest knock on Carey right now is his ability to defend in space generally, and in pick and roll situations in particular. He is viewed as being better at protecting the rim than doing this, and I think we saw that in the way teams attacked us as the year progressed. Defending in space is seen as a key attribute for NBA bigs these days, probably even more than rim protection.

[jv001]

From what I can tell, the biggest knock on Carey right now is his ability to defend in space generally, and in pick and roll situations in particular. He is viewed as being better at protecting the rim than doing this, and I think we saw that in the way teams attacked us as the year progressed. Defending in space is seen as a key attribute for NBA bigs these days, probably even more than rim protection.

Sort of like how teams attacked Hurt during the 2nd half of the season. Neither were above average in defending on the picknroll.

GoDuke!

[Saratoga2]

From what I can tell, the biggest knock on Carey right now is his ability to defend in space generally, and in pick and roll situations in particular. He is viewed as being better at protecting the rim than doing this, and I think we saw that in the way teams attacked us as the year progressed. Defending in space is seen as a key attribute for NBA bigs these days, probably even more than rim protection.

I also would think of Vernon for some of his positive attributes rather than point out those that are negative. He has size and will continue to improve his conditioning. He has soft hands and a soft touch around the basket and I thought he improved his FT shootiing during the season. He also has the ability to shoot from 3. I fully expect time in the pros will allow him to refine his game. I also don't remember his having a lot of injury bugs so prevalent with some of the NBA bigmen. I expect Carey to be picked by a club like the Celtics who need a backup big man and can afford to develop him.

[Kedsy]

I understand what "ceiling" means as I use the word often. But when we're talking about a range of outcomes, even Vernon's 99th percentile outcome does not include being as good as Embiid (or averaging 24/11.5). I think the disconnect here is perhaps you not realizing how average Vernon's physical tools are. For example, even Steven Adams, an average starting center, is more athletic and longer than Vernon. And then when you compare Vernon to Embiid, arguably the best center in the league (when healthy) with amazing physical tools, it becomes a bit of a joke.

I agree with this. This is not a knock on Vernon, rather it's the reality of the NBA. I think for NBA purposes, Vernon is basically Jahlil Okafor but with a passable jump shot. Now, having a passable jump shot might put him a level above Jahlil (who basically only plays if someone is hurt), but it still makes him a backup with maybe a path to decent minutes on a non-contender. I'd say his ceiling is more like Julius Randle and not even in the same universe as Joel Embiid.

[kAzE]

When I say ceiling, I'm talking about the best possible outcome. And I think there exists a universe in which Carey averages 24 points and 11.5 boards like Embiid did this past season. It's not the most likely scenario, but the potential is there. And I'm not sure you can say that about 25 other players.

They must not care about defense in that universe, because Embiid is a 2-way player at the highest level, and Carey is very similar to Jahlil Okafor on the defensive end of the floor. Both Jah and Vernon could obviously put up 20 and 10 if they played 25-30 minutes in an NBA game, but they will absolutely kill you trying to guard even just average NBA guards on switches, much less guys like Steph Curry or Dame Lillard (not that even Embiid could hope to guard those guys).