MBB: Duke v NCSU (Mon 3/2, 7:00 pm, ESPN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[Edouble]

Not sure where DBA is tonight, but we are 22 hours away from the tip of a huge home game and I'm ready to discuss!

Let's.
Go.
Duke.

[moonpie23]

need some payback.... GO DUKE

[arnie]

Not sure where DBA is tonight, but we are 22 hours away from the tip of a huge home game and I'm ready to discuss!

Let's.
Go.
Duke.

Early line is Duke -13. Again, seems too high.

[jipops]

I would feel a lot better about this if it was Tue or Wed. But with such a quick turnaround I don’t feel good about this one at all. This team and staff has struggled with preparation lately. Not sure they will be prepared tomorrow either.

[gofurman]

I would feel a lot better about this if it was Tue or Wed. But with such a quick turnaround I don’t feel good about this one at all. This team and staff has struggled with preparation lately. Not sure they will be prepared tomorrow either.

Anti-jinx. Don’t know how we win. Wear your lucky underwear everyone

[UrinalCake]

It's difficult to scout or breakdown what we need to do, because in the first matchup we basically got destroyed in every single facet of the game. I tend to think that K's preparation will be more psychological than strategic. At this point in the season we're not going to install a whole new offense or anything, K is just going to want his guys to play hard and compete. Maybe he shakes up the starting lineup or the rotation a bit but we've had so many iterations of guys playing and not playing that I'm not sure how much that would even matter.

[AZLA]

Settle down play with confidence take some jump shots be fine...

[gofurman]

Let’s not post anymore scouting of how “they are really bad at this” and such. Maybe just “they aren’t great at this”. No jinxes. And yes, the first matchup was about the most lackadaisical Duke effort I have seen in years. We couldn’t run a dribble hand off

[Troublemaker]

Early line is Duke -13. Again, seems too high.

The market will not be able to adjust quickly enough to Duke's collapse. If, say, we have 5 games left this season, we're likely to go 2-3 or 1-4 against the spread* in those games. Interestingly, this game is probably our best chance to cover because of the revenge factor.

(* Might as well profit so that something good comes out of this :-) The basketball itself isn't going to be pretty for Duke fans).

[Troublemaker]

Coach K's not going to do it, but one of the adjustments he needs to make is to play ice defense the way Thibs intended it to be played, which is with the big man a step or two closer to the basket. (For those unaware, Duke started icing pick-n-rolls [PnR] after collaborating with Tom Thibodeau on Team USA. "Ice" just means forcing the ball-handler away from the screen in PnR)

Look at the video below. You'll see that Chicago's guards play the ball screens the way our guards do by forcing the ball-handler away from the screen. BUT, look at where Chicago's bigs are positioned in the video, especially slow-footed Carlos Boozer whenever he's the big man defender. Chicago's bigs, especially Carlos, are generally either a step outside the paint or a step inside the paint. They're closer to the basket than Duke's bigs are. By positioning the big men closer to the basket, the big men can bottle up ball screen drives from the ball-handler instead of getting beaten to the basket. Additionally, the bigs are in better position to defend rolls to the basket.

Thibs was able to turn Carlos into an average or even above average defender against PnR using this scheme. We can do the same with Vernon, et al.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=csxCcRieEAs

[HereBeforeCoachK]

The market will not be able to adjust quickly enough to Duke's collapse. If, say, we have 5 games left this season, we're likely to go 2-3 or 1-4 against the spread* in those games. Interestingly, this game is probably our best chance to cover because of the revenge factor.

(* Might as well profit so that something good comes out of this :-) The basketball itself isn't going to be pretty for Duke fans).

I'm not at all sure this team cares enough to have a revenge factor. Tonight will be a very good test of that.

[Saratoga2]

It's difficult to scout or breakdown what we need to do, because in the first matchup we basically got destroyed in every single facet of the game. I tend to think that K's preparation will be more psychological than strategic. At this point in the season we're not going to install a whole new offense or anything, K is just going to want his guys to play hard and compete. Maybe he shakes up the starting lineup or the rotation a bit but we've had so many iterations of guys playing and not playing that I'm not sure how much that would even matter.

We aren't getting any new players, so the best that coach K can do is find the best lineup and sub routines based on the last games. Also he can adjust his defensive schemes. After that, its up to the players to execute.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Coach K's not going to do it, but one of the adjustments he needs to make is to play ice defense the way Thibs intended it to be played, which is with the big man a step or two closer to the basket. (For those unaware, Duke started icing pick-n-rolls [PnR] after collaborating with Tom Thibodeau on Team USA. "Ice" just means forcing the ball-handler away from the screen in PnR)

Look at the video below. You'll see that Chicago's guards play the ball screens the way our guards do by forcing the ball-handler away from the screen. BUT, look at where Chicago's bigs are positioned in the video, especially slow-footed Carlos Boozer whenever he's the big man defender. Chicago's bigs, especially Carlos, are generally either a step outside the paint or a step inside the paint. They're closer to the basket than Duke's bigs are. By positioning the big men closer to the basket, the big men can bottle up ball screen drives from the ball-handler instead of getting beaten to the basket. Additionally, the bigs are in better position to defend rolls to the basket.

Thibs was able to turn Carlos into an average or even above average defender against PnR using this scheme. We can do the same with Vernon, et al.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=csxCcRieEAs
Thanks for sharing this. I too would love to see something different against the pnr. We can’t just keep switching every time and allowing the mismatch against Vern, JDL, Hurt, etc... Well, we can but it’s not likely to result in many good defensive stands. Seems to me the key is the guard stepping up and forcing the ball handler away from the pick. Otherwise you’re just giving away free open shots off the ball screen. I also seem to recall we did this a little bit a few years ago but have gotten away from it for some reason. Hopefully K and staff are tracking these comments! :D

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I'm not at all sure this team cares enough to have a revenge factor. Tonight will be a very good test of that.

Yowch. You don't have think our team cares enough?

Harsh words

[moonpie23]

Yowch. You don't have think our team cares enough?

Harsh words

Fire, they showeth not..........

[Reddevil]

Fire, they showeth not...

Yeah, enough of the slow starts. Begin the game with the full court press. Get after it from the get go. The press is has been used later in the game to get the guys playing D. Start off with it. Step on their neck and don't look back. Ah-ooooh, werewolves in Cameron!

[CDu]

As we saw in Raleigh, when State comes to play, they are a really dynamic offensive team. They have two guards who are extremely adept at scoring off the dribble, plus a few options around them. Duke really needs to figure out a way to limit the opportunities for Daniels and Johnson, who absolutely roasted us with the high ball screens.

One strategy mentioned already is the concept of "icing" the screen (see Troublemaker's excellent post above in the thread). Icing will work best on ball screens set closer to the sideline. In those plays, you essentially create an extra defender with the sideline, and you also eliminate passing options for the ball handler. But the further towards the middle that the screen is set, the less effective icing will be. In the middle of the floor, you don't get the benefit of the "sideline defender", and you don't have the benefit of isolating the ballhandler away from his passing outlets. A lot of State's screens were near the top of the key, which isn't an optimal place to ice.

Another option is to have our guards go under the screen AND have the big play drop coverage (sagging off to protect the lane). That should reduce the amount of downhill action Daniels and Johnson can get, as well as eliminate the alleyoops to the rolling big. It would also help reduce the offensive rebounding opportunities for State that were created by all the scrambling to address the driver. Now, it's certainly not a flawless strategy. What it will do is result in more 3pt attempts. That has historically been anathema to Coach K - we are fourth in the nation in fewest 3pt attempts allowed this year. But it may help protect from the easy baskets State got at the rim. Essentially, we'd be daring them to replicate their crazy 3pt percentage from a couple of weeks ago.

I'd like to see a combination of those two: icing screens nearer the sideline and going under screens combined with drop coverage on ball screens near the top of the key. I want to dare their drivers to drive into double teams and commit turnovers, or make them a jumpshooting, one-shot team. I don't want their drivers getting confidence attacking isos on bigs, and I don't want easy second-chance points.

I'd also like to see more pressure applied to slow them down and/or force turnovers. Give them less time to work through screen progressions that allow them to isolate the ideal matchup. And if you can make them make a few more mistakes that give away possessions, all the better.

Ultimately, State has a couple of really good playmakers at guard, and a couple of bigs who are good in the pick and roll game. It's really hard to take away everything they can do offensively. You kind of have to hope that they make mistakes (which they tend to do) and/or have an off-night, and try to minimize the opportunities they have to get in optimal situations. Again, easier said than done, especially if Johnson and Daniels are playing with confidence. But if we can hold them to about a 1.05 points per possession unadjusted, that will be a reasonably good outcome.

And then we need to talk about the offense...

[jv001]

As we saw in Raleigh, when State comes to play, they are a really dynamic offensive team. They have two guards who are extremely adept at scoring off the dribble, plus a few options around them. Duke really needs to figure out a way to limit the opportunities for Daniels and Johnson, who absolutely roasted us with the high ball screens.

One strategy mentioned already is the concept of "icing" the screen (see Troublemaker's excellent post above in the thread). Icing will work best on ball screens set closer to the sideline. In those plays, you essentially create an extra defender with the sideline, and you also eliminate passing options for the ball handler. But the further towards the middle that the screen is set, the less effective icing will be. In the middle of the floor, you don't get the benefit of the "sideline defender", and you don't have the benefit of isolating the ballhandler away from his passing outlets. A lot of State's screens were near the top of the key, which isn't an optimal place to ice.

Another option is to have our guards go under the screen AND have the big play drop coverage (sagging off to protect the lane). That should reduce the amount of downhill action Daniels and Johnson can get, as well as eliminate the alleyoops to the rolling big. It would also help reduce the offensive rebounding opportunities for State that were created by all the scrambling to address the driver. Now, it's certainly not a flawless strategy. What it will do is result in more 3pt attempts. That has historically been anathema to Coach K - we are fourth in the nation in fewest 3pt attempts allowed this year. But it may help protect from the easy baskets State got at the rim. Essentially, we'd be daring them to replicate their crazy 3pt percentage from a couple of weeks ago.

I'd like to see a combination of those two: icing screens nearer the sideline and going under screens combined with drop coverage on ball screens near the top of the key. I want to dare their drivers to drive into double teams and commit turnovers, or make them a jumpshooting, one-shot team. I don't want their drivers getting confidence attacking isos on bigs, and I don't want easy second-chance points.

I'd also like to see more pressure applied to slow them down and/or force turnovers. Give them less time to work through screen progressions that allow them to isolate the ideal matchup. And if you can make them make a few more mistakes that give away possessions, all the better.

Ultimately, State has a couple of really good playmakers at guard, and a couple of bigs who are good in the pick and roll game. It's really hard to take away everything they can do offensively. You kind of have to hope that they make mistakes (which they tend to do) and/or have an off-night, and try to minimize the opportunities they have to get in optimal situations. Again, easier said than done, especially if Johnson and Daniels are playing with confidence. But if we can hold them to about a 1.05 points per possession unadjusted, that will be a reasonably good outcome.

And then we need to talk about the offense...

I'm calling for you help about the offense in the Virginia thread. :cool:

GoDuke!

[wgl1228]

I'm all for going back to the beginning of the year and just subbing 4 or even all 5 after every 5:00 span.

[CDu]

As much as we lost the game on defense against State, we were pretty bad offensively as well. We shot poorly from 3 and even worse from the FT line. We weren't terribly good inside the 3pt line either. Carey had a monster stat line, although State did make him work for it. But besides Carey, nobody else was good offensively. We need Tre Jones to be a better decision maker in terms of shot selection. We need to see Stanley make an impact in the game. And we need one of our options at PF to step up and be productive. In the State game, Hurt, White, Moore, and Baker combined for 3-9 for 7 points. Somebody needs to provide an alternative so that Jones doesn't feel the need to take ~20 FG attempts per game.

I don't have a good answer here. Part of the problem is that these guys are fairly limited. Hurt has challenges against State's smaller options at the 4 spot (Hellems and Bryce), Baker and Stanley aren't strong off the dribble, and White is essentially a set shooter/screener rebounder, and Moore is just sooooooo sloppy with the ball. Aside from Moore, these guys require you to "scheme them open", which we haven't seemed to figure out. Maybe they could work more high-low action with Hurt and Carey, with either being the post option. Maybe they can get some pick and pop action for Baker if he plays the 4 spot, and they could certainly do that with Hurt. With Stanley and Moore, I think their best chances offensively are in transition and in the weave action, where they can try to attack a seam if it opens. But we need to find a way to get these guys more consistently involved so that teams can't just focus everything on trying to limit or take away Carey.

[Jaks19]

This game is going to be pretty intense. Duke has a lot riding on this one. 1. to even the series. 2. To get back on the winning track. 3. To make some adjustments for the things that recently have gone astray. 4. For Duke not to be looking ahead at the UNC game and SR night.

This is a hard one to figure out. Players just need to come to play besides for Vernon and Tre. Vernon needs to stay in the game and not pick up fouls that limit his game minutes for when he is not on the floor, Duke is clearly not the same team. Tre is scoring points but some of his misses and shot selection are head scratchers.

Not sure what to say about the rest of the team
One of Hurt, Cassius, Moore and JGold have to have a good game(s).
Depth with Javin, Jack, Joey and AOC need to contribute solid minutes …

Same old story

[jv001]

As much as we lost the game on defense against State, we were pretty bad offensively as well. We shot poorly from 3 and even worse from the FT line. We weren't terribly good inside the 3pt line either. Carey had a monster stat line, although State did make him work for it. But besides Carey, nobody else was good offensively. We need Tre Jones to be a better decision maker in terms of shot selection. We need to see Stanley make an impact in the game. And we need one of our options at PF to step up and be productive. In the State game, Hurt, White, Moore, and Baker combined for 3-9 for 7 points. Somebody needs to provide an alternative so that Jones doesn't feel the need to take ~20 FG attempts per game.

I don't have a good answer here. Part of the problem is that these guys are fairly limited. Hurt has challenges against State's smaller options at the 4 spot (Hellems and Bryce), Baker and Stanley aren't strong off the dribble, and White is essentially a set shooter/screener rebounder, and Moore is just sooooooo sloppy with the ball. Aside from Moore, these guys require you to "scheme them open", which we haven't seemed to figure out. Maybe they could work more high-low action with Hurt and Carey, with either being the post option. Maybe they can get some pick and pop action for Baker if he plays the 4 spot, and they could certainly do that with Hurt. With Stanley and Moore, I think their best chances offensively are in transition and in the weave action, where they can try to attack a seam if it opens. But we need to find a way to get these guys more consistently involved so that teams can't just focus everything on trying to limit or take away Carey.

Good job as usual. With all the double and triple teaming on Vernon would it make sense for big V to quickly pass the ball back out to an open shooter? Lately Vernon has tried to beat those double teams by dribbling in an attempt to get his shot off. I think he should trust his perimeter players more. Man, it's hard to knock Vernon as well as he's played this season but our option after Vernon and Tre have been down right pitiful. Especially in road games. The stats I posted in the Virginia thread made me want to cry. Thank God we play in Cameron these last two.

GoDuke!

GoDuke

[Rich]

Coach K's not going to do it, but one of the adjustments he needs to make is to play ice defense the way Thibs intended it to be played, which is with the big man a step or two closer to the basket. (For those unaware, Duke started icing pick-n-rolls [PnR] after collaborating with Tom Thibodeau on Team USA. "Ice" just means forcing the ball-handler away from the screen in PnR)

Look at the video below. You'll see that Chicago's guards play the ball screens the way our guards do by forcing the ball-handler away from the screen. BUT, look at where Chicago's bigs are positioned in the video, especially slow-footed Carlos Boozer whenever he's the big man defender. Chicago's bigs, especially Carlos, are generally either a step outside the paint or a step inside the paint. They're closer to the basket than Duke's bigs are. By positioning the big men closer to the basket, the big men can bottle up ball screen drives from the ball-handler instead of getting beaten to the basket. Additionally, the bigs are in better position to defend rolls to the basket.

Thibs was able to turn Carlos into an average or even above average defender against PnR using this scheme. We can do the same with Vernon, et al.



Didn't we do something similar with Marques Bolden last year to help with his defense given his length but relatively slow speed?

[Music man55]

Does anybody on DBR have any idea of how we can conjure up the N C State team that the cheats always get, instead of the one Duke always gets. I feel that would be a key to getting the win tonight!

[Kedsy]

Does anybody on DBR have any idea of how we can conjure up the N C State team that the cheats always get, instead of the one Duke always gets. I feel that would be a key to getting the win tonight!

A good start is to play them in Durham. In our last ten home games against NCSU, Duke is 9-1 with seven double-digit victories (the one loss was by 2 points in 2017). Duke's average margin of victory in those nine wins was 16.7 points. Of course we'll have to see if that trend continues.

[Billy Dat]

This is an enormous game. We need to stop the bleeding, and it would be nice to do so in convincing fashion.

I expect us to play well. We have played well at home and, more importantly, have shot pretty well at home.

Of course, NC State should be really hungry as they are firmly on the bubble and it's their last shot at a regular season resume win.

I don't expect many defensive adjustments for this game because we wouldn't have had much time to implement them. But, I do expect K will keep trying to stress defense. That usually means more Goldwire, Moore, Javin and Jack and less Hurt, AOC and Baker.

While the defense-first line-ups aren't pretty, I agree with those who feel like if the defense is elite then the offense takes care of itself, no matter how ugly it is. It's tough to judge offense against the Cavs, so let that one slide for a moment. State's defense is 81st in KenPom compared to the Cavs #2. That should be a big difference. If we can keep them below 70, we should be ok.

I'm with Al Davis on this one...

[szstark]

Good job as usual. With all the double and triple teaming on Vernon would it make sense for big V to quickly pass the ball back out to an open shooter? Lately Vernon has tried to beat those double teams by dribbling in an attempt to get his shot off. I think he should trust his perimeter players more. Man, it's hard to knock Vernon as well as he's played this season but our option after Vernon and Tre have been down right pitiful. Especially in road games. The stats I posted in the Virginia thread made me want to cry. Thank God we play in Cameron these last two.

GoDuke!

GoDuke

Agree with this. Vernon needs to relocate the ball quickly out of the double team to Hurt or AOC or Baker for the open three. We did it beautifully in the Notre Dame game - not so much since.

[kAzE]

Coach K's not going to do it, but one of the adjustments he needs to make is to play ice defense the way Thibs intended it to be played, which is with the big man a step or two closer to the basket. (For those unaware, Duke started icing pick-n-rolls [PnR] after collaborating with Tom Thibodeau on Team USA. "Ice" just means forcing the ball-handler away from the screen in PnR)

Look at the video below. You'll see that Chicago's guards play the ball screens the way our guards do by forcing the ball-handler away from the screen. BUT, look at where Chicago's bigs are positioned in the video, especially slow-footed Carlos Boozer whenever he's the big man defender. Chicago's bigs, especially Carlos, are generally either a step outside the paint or a step inside the paint. They're closer to the basket than Duke's bigs are. By positioning the big men closer to the basket, the big men can bottle up ball screen drives from the ball-handler instead of getting beaten to the basket. Additionally, the bigs are in better position to defend rolls to the basket.

Thibs was able to turn Carlos into an average or even above average defender against PnR using this scheme. We can do the same with Vernon, et al.

Not quite. Icing the screen means forcing the ball handler to go baseline, instead of towards the middle of the court. It's less risky than hard hedging, has easier defensive rotations, and makes it tougher for the ball handler to pass to the weak side because he's further away from the middle of the court.

Here's a good explanation of icing:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iPCKVdV7SVU

It's kind of funny, all the clips of Duke in the video show us basically failing to do this properly. It's tough to do consistently without a smart and mobile big man. Vernon just doesn't have the kind of footspeed it takes to keep most guards out of the paint.

[Rickshaw]

Yeah, enough of the slow starts. Begin the game with the full court press. Get after it from the get go. The press is has been used later in the game to get the guys playing D. Start off with it. Step on their neck and don't look back. Ah-ooooh, werewolves in Cameron!

Gotta love warren z.

[CDu]

Not quite. Icing the screen means forcing the ball handler to go baseline, instead of towards the middle of the court. It's less risky than hard hedging, has easier defensive rotations, and makes it tougher for the ball handler to pass to the weak side because he's further away from the middle of the court.

Here's a good explanation of icing:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iPCKVdV7SVU

It's kind of funny, all the clips of Duke in the video show us basically failing to do this properly. It's tough to do consistently without a smart and mobile big man. Vernon just doesn't have the kind of footspeed it takes to keep most guards out of the paint.

Yeah, icing is hard. You have to have a lot of very good communication between the big and the guard, and both have to be in unison to make it work.

That being said, if you have the big always in "drop coverage" on any high ball screens (i.e., not just on side screens where icing is possible) then icing the screen is a bit easier. Then it is just a matter of the big getting the message to the guard in time for the guard to deny the ball screen. Still hard, because it still requires great communication from the big. But at least the big doesn't then also need to worry about whether he needs to jump out in coverage or drop in coverage. So at least from that perspective, it's easier.

But yeah, implementing ice is hard because it relies on the big being able to (a) recognize the screen in a timely manner - not too late for the guard to get in position and not too early such that the ballhandler has space to split it; and (b) recognize whether the screen needs to be iced or allowed. Sometimes, that's not easy to identify. Especially with a young big who isn't a great in-space defender anyway.

[Rickshaw]

Yeah, icing is hard. You have to have a lot of very good communication between the big and the guard, and both have to be in unison to make it work.

That being said, if you have the big always in "drop coverage" on any high ball screens (i.e., not just on side screens where icing is possible) then icing the screen is a bit easier. Then it is just a matter of the big getting the message to the guard in time for the guard to deny the ball screen. Still hard, because it still requires great communication from the big. But at least the big doesn't then also need to worry about whether he needs to jump out in coverage or drop in coverage. So at least from that perspective, it's easier.

But yeah, implementing ice is hard because it relies on the big being able to (a) recognize the screen in a timely manner - not too late for the guard to get in position and not too early such that the ballhandler has space to split it; and (b) recognize whether the screen needs to be iced or allowed. Sometimes, that's not easy to identify. Especially with a young big who isn't a great in-space defender anyway.
Defense.......let em shoot. Kedsy , what are the probabilities they make the jump shot vs the easy score ......( tough one ). Rest our guys.

[Kedsy]

Defense...let em shoot. Kedsy , what are the probabilities they make the jump shot vs the easy score ...( tough one ). Rest our guys.

This season, our opponents have made 62.5% of their shots at the rim; have made 32.1% of their 2-point jumpers; and have made 30.1% of their threes. If we can convince the other team to take two-point jumpers, we should (notwithstanding the first UNC game).

[CDu]

This season, our opponents have made 62.5% of their shots at the rim; have made 32.1% of their 2-point jumpers; and have made 30.1% of their threes. If we can convince the other team to take two-point jumpers, we should (notwithstanding the first UNC game).

And note that this doesn't account for offensive rebounds on missed layups/shots near the rim. A high percentage of those result in easy second-chance points. This would be very difficult to track (would basically require rewatching all the games and/or analyzing play by play data with really good shot charts/descriptions). I suspect that our opponents' ultimate offensive efficiency is better when they get shots close to the basket (within 5 feet) than it is one shots from 3 point range.

But statistically speaking, the most efficient shots we've allowed - ignoring what happens after a miss - are those at the rim. And the least efficient have been "2 pt jumpers". Teams have averaged about a 0.9 ppp on 3s, a better than 1.25 ppp on layups/dunks (considering and-1s), and a .64 ppp on everything else.

[jv001]

Yeah, icing is hard. You have to have a lot of very good communication between the big and the guard, and both have to be in unison to make it work.

That being said, if you have the big always in "drop coverage" on any high ball screens (i.e., not just on side screens where icing is possible) then icing the screen is a bit easier. Then it is just a matter of the big getting the message to the guard in time for the guard to deny the ball screen. Still hard, because it still requires great communication from the big. But at least the big doesn't then also need to worry about whether he needs to jump out in coverage or drop in coverage. So at least from that perspective, it's easier.

But yeah, implementing ice is hard because it relies on the big being able to (a) recognize the screen in a timely manner - not too late for the guard to get in position and not too early such that the ballhandler has space to split it; and (b) recognize whether the screen needs to be iced or allowed. Sometimes, that's not easy to identify. Especially with a young big who isn't a great in-space defender anyway.

Based on your take on icing, I don't expect Duke to use it tonight because there hasn't been enough time to practice it. With the players we have, at this point in the season it is what it is and the only thing I see Coach K changing is defensive concepts. I guess there are a few offensive wrinkles we could use, like double low post, high-low post, etc. But I don't know enough about offensive schemes to suggest any.

GoDuke!

[MrPoon]

I feel fairly optimistic about this one, I’m much more worried about the following game.
Team seems to start better at home and I expect Stanley to play more aggressive as he seems to do after hearing it from the coaches (usually at half time).
At home someone will hit threes.

Lots to lowlights last go around at State but shot selection (poor) really stood out to me. Hope that gets better - ball movement in rhythm not just the Tre/Vernon show.

Its been discussed but I’d like K’s substitutions to dictate the game, not react. To me, he’s been playing the last few games on the terms of the opposition.
Let’s play large with Hurt, help on D and rebound better. Or play one in four out with actual shooters on the perimeter and force the other team to adjust.

Mr.Poon has this as a 12 out win. Don’t check past posts, just assume I’m never wrong. :rolleyes:

[Rich]

I feel fairly optimistic about this one, I’m much more worried about the following game.
Team seems to start better at home and I expect Stanley to play more aggressive as he seems to do after hearing it from the coaches (usually at half time).
At home someone will hit threes.

Lots to lowlights last go around at State but shot selection (poor) really stood out to me. Hope that gets better - ball movement in rhythm not just the Tre/Vernon show.

Its been discussed but I’d like K’s substitutions to dictate the game, not react. To me, he’s been playing the last few games on the terms of the opposition.
Let’s play large with Hurt, help on D and rebound better. Or play one in four out with actual shooters on the perimeter and force the other team to adjust.

Mr.Poon has this as a 12 out win. Don’t check past posts, just assume I’m never wrong. :rolleyes:

What does MrsPoon have to say about that? :p

[House G]

As we saw in Raleigh, when State comes to play, they are a really dynamic offensive team. They have two guards who are extremely adept at scoring off the dribble, plus a few options around them. Duke really needs to figure out a way to limit the opportunities for Daniels and Johnson, who absolutely roasted us with the high ball screens.

One strategy mentioned already is the concept of "icing" the screen (see Troublemaker's excellent post above in the thread). Icing will work best on ball screens set closer to the sideline. In those plays, you essentially create an extra defender with the sideline, and you also eliminate passing options for the ball handler. But the further towards the middle that the screen is set, the less effective icing will be. In the middle of the floor, you don't get the benefit of the "sideline defender", and you don't have the benefit of isolating the ballhandler away from his passing outlets. A lot of State's screens were near the top of the key, which isn't an optimal place to ice.

Another option is to have our guards go under the screen AND have the big play drop coverage (sagging off to protect the lane). That should reduce the amount of downhill action Daniels and Johnson can get, as well as eliminate the alleyoops to the rolling big. It would also help reduce the offensive rebounding opportunities for State that were created by all the scrambling to address the driver. Now, it's certainly not a flawless strategy. What it will do is result in more 3pt attempts. That has historically been anathema to Coach K - we are fourth in the nation in fewest 3pt attempts allowed this year. But it may help protect from the easy baskets State got at the rim. Essentially, we'd be daring them to replicate their crazy 3pt percentage from a couple of weeks ago.

I'd like to see a combination of those two: icing screens nearer the sideline and going under screens combined with drop coverage on ball screens near the top of the key. I want to dare their drivers to drive into double teams and commit turnovers, or make them a jumpshooting, one-shot team. I don't want their drivers getting confidence attacking isos on bigs, and I don't want easy second-chance points.

I'd also like to see more pressure applied to slow them down and/or force turnovers. Give them less time to work through screen progressions that allow them to isolate the ideal matchup. And if you can make them make a few more mistakes that give away possessions, all the better.

Ultimately, State has a couple of really good playmakers at guard, and a couple of bigs who are good in the pick and roll game. It's really hard to take away everything they can do offensively. You kind of have to hope that they make mistakes (which they tend to do) and/or have an off-night, and try to minimize the opportunities they have to get in optimal situations. Again, easier said than done, especially if Johnson and Daniels are playing with confidence. But if we can hold them to about a 1.05 points per possession unadjusted, that will be a reasonably good outcome.

And then we need to talk about the offense...

Would that be the offense that had 29 points and one assist after 22 minutes of play in the first game?

[Bob Green]

Who steps up on offense? Tre Jones and Vernon Carey carried the load by themselves in Raleigh scoring 17 and 27 respectively. No other player scored in double figures.

To win tonight we will need a third and perhaps fourth scoring option.

Matt Hurt? Joey Baker? Alex O’Connell? Jordan Goldwire? Wendell Moore? Cassius Stanley? Jack White? Javin DeLaurier?

[-jk]

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Let's Go Duke!

-jk

[arnie]

Pathetic

Pack playing very poorly; therefore, we’re only down by 3🤬

[dukelifer]

Ugh. Need to stop that drive

[heyman25]

Not a good start. Sloppy and letting Johnson have easy layups.Duke is stressed out and first 4 minutes were a continuation of losing basketball.

[dukelifer]

Team has lost their confidence. Very strange

[arnie]

Not a good start. Sloppy and letting Johnson have easy layups.Duke is stressed out and first 4 minutes were a continuation of losing basketball.

Hey we’re so young.

[downeastdad]

One FG in five minutes. Looks like the dreaded slow start again.

[wavedukefan70s]

We cant hit the ocean sitting in a boat .

[heyman25]

Duke better get their act together. Matthew like that play.

[Ballboy1998]

This team is painful to watch right now. Can’t think of another Duke team that was on more of a downward trajectory without major injuries.

[dukelifer]

Looks like a tired team out there and it is early. Just have no idea who is going to score for this team

[heyman25]

Our top 2 Jones and Carey are having lousy games thus far. Duke needs to calm down and start executing and finishing plays.

[dukelion]

Arrrggghhh

They're pressing so much.....and at this point of the season we can't guard simple ball screens.

Also still trying out lineup combos.....not good signs.

Very disappointing after where we were two weeks ago.

[kAzE]

Nobody on this team looks for Baker. First 4 shots we took were all contested and Joey Baker was wide open on every shot. Baker gets 2 stops on NC state players driving in the paint. Of course he’s out of the game after 1 minute played. What Was the point of starting him?

[simplyluvin]

Why this team can’t start well is completely bewildering. It’s essentially a chronic disease now.

[downeastdad]

Johnson is going through us like a fart through a mitten.

[dukelifer]

Team making way too many mistakes. Not sure Duke can beat this team

[heyman25]

Robinson has given the team some stability.Gives me some hope we can turn this around.

[arnie]

Looks like a tired team out there and it is early. Just have no idea who is going to score for this team

Wonder why State isn’t a tired team? They’re roster not very deep.

[rsvman]

We are playing really bad basketball right now. Lucky we aren't down by 18 points already.
Offense is pathetic, no ball movement, poor shot selection, almost look like they are playing scared. Defense against the ball screen is horrible. Against a bad shooter, why not go underneath the ball screen?

[dukelifer]

Robinson has given the team some stability.Gives me some hope we can turn this around.

Definitely playing like a senior- with poise.

[heyman25]

Moore does it again. Damn he is a turnover king.

[Kjeffrey]

Nobody on this team looks for Baker. First 4 shots we took were all contested and Joey Baker was wide open on every shot. Baker gets 2 stops on NC state players driving in the paint. Of course he’s out of the game after 1 minute played. What Was the point of starting him?

There seems to be little to no margin for error where Baker is concerned. It seems like shooters need to be given more time to get in rhythm.

[Kjeffrey]

Definitely playing like a senior- with poise.

Which he also did against Wake but then got no minutes on Saturday. I don’t get it.

[dukelifer]

Moore does it again. Damn he is a turnover king.

So many mistakes- just not playing smart basketball

[Clocktower]

When did Tre forget how to play basketball?

[szstark]

They have learned nothing from the recent losses - nothing.

[Sixthman]

That was the most passive zone defense I have ever seen. It looked like a walk through in a hotel ballroom.

[arnie]

Starters are 3 of 20 so far. Doesn’t get much worse than this.

[dukelifer]

When did Tre forget how to play basketball?

I think he is wearing down as is Carey. Plus State is a very bad match up. Not looking good

[rsvman]

I don't understand why we play this way against a guy like Johnson. Here's not a good shooter. Here's not going to hurt you thirty feet from the basket.
After he blows by you, though, they have five on four anytime they want it.
I see coach trying zone but maybe the answer is man to man that doesn't extend so far away from the basket.

[barjwr]

How many layups can one team miss in a game? And hitting the underside of the rim?

[nmduke2001]

This team looks like they don’t know any plays on offense nor how to play team defense. It’s crazy.

[jipops]

I figured the quick turnaround would be bad. OFCOURSE we’re unprepared.

Both the team and K are just lost.

[mattyoung18]

I'm worried guys.Stage 5 clinger worried.I dont even think Coach K can help this team.

[barjwr]

I'm worried guys.Stage 5 clinger worried.

I needed that levity.

[rsvman]

Why the one on one offense?

Forget paying the players for use of their likenesses. Pay them for assists!

[dukelifer]

I'm worried guys.Stage 5 clinger worried.

State is way more confident than Duke right now

[kAzE]

WTF happened to Tre’s decision making ability? He seems to think the pull up jumper with a guy right in his face is a great shot.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

The zone looks terrible. Rotations are out of whack. Like they’ve barely practiced it. What a mess this is.

[Sixthman]

Crowd dead; now back.

[dukelifer]

By some miracle Duke shoots in the 30’s, State in the 50’s and up 2. That is hard to do.

[WakeDevil]

Bad call by the offside official. We'll take it.

[heyman25]

Recovered a little. To paraphrase a Temptations song Duke is standing on Shaky Ground. NCSU will not be going away.

[gep]

According to the box score (only way for me to follow the game)... JRob is leading scorer???? Who'd a thunk it:confused:

[kAzE]

Carey ran hard and was wide open for the alley oop, but Moore takes it himself and makes a fool of himself. Lucky to get bailed out by the ref. Just makes me shake my head.

[Kjeffrey]

Carey ran hard and was wide open for the alley oop, but Moore takes it himself and makes a fool of himself. Lucky to get bailed out by the ref. Just makes me shake my head.

He does not make good decisions. His full head of steam reminds me of Cam Reddish. I wish he could shoot like Cam though. :)

[heyman25]

I am glad Jay Bilas brought up the 6 for 34 shooting by the team outside of Jones and Carey against UVA. Just inconsistent and turnover prone. At least we got a lead.

[jipops]

Duke will likely play a similar or tougher opponent in the 1st round. Not comforting.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

He does not make good decisions. His full head of steam reminds me of Cam Reddish. I wish he could shoot like Cam though. :)

It helps if you can dribble....if you're going with full head of steam....

[kAzE]

He does not make good decisions. His full head of steam reminds me of Cam Reddish. I wish he could shoot like Cam though. :)

Nah, cam would have thrown the lob. Last year’s guys knew how to move the ball.

[dukelifer]

Duke will likely play a similar or tougher opponent in the 1st round. Not comforting.

Perhaps the strangest season in a long time. Several huge, blowout wins in the league and then head scratching losses at the end when the team should know their identity. Need Tre to be an assist man tonight. He does seem to have his legs.

[rsvman]

We aren't passing the ball at all like we did early in the season.

[Indoor66]

Hoe the mighty have fallen.

[jv001]

He does not make good decisions. His full head of steam reminds me of Cam Reddish. I wish he could shoot like Cam though. :)

For someone who shoots FTs so well and has good form, Wendell is a poor perimeter shooter. But his ball handling is even worse. In the man2man Tre is playing badly. He seems to be slow to react. I don't know if he's resting on defense and extending more energy on offense. That's opposite of how he played at the beginning of the year. Goldwire has more energy on defense than he does. I like the zone defense so far, as it's taken away the straight line drives to the basket.

GoDuke!

[Indoor66]

A pedestrian team, sorry to say.

[rsvman]

Wow. Another missed layup? What's the Guinness record?

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Nothing is easy for the rest of the season.

[downeastdad]

I've lost count of the missed bunnies. Way too many, though.....

[szstark]

How many layups have we missed? So frustrating.

[barjwr]

They look nervous. How do you look nervous in early March?!?

[dukelifer]

A pedestrian team, sorry to say.

Just very inconsistent. No one who can create their own shot who can get buckets when needed. No Grayson, No Tatum, No Ingram, No Zion, No RJ. That is really the issue. They are on the team- but they are not finished products

[downeastdad]

On the plus side, we are making free throws. And o rebounds. Course, when you miss as many shots as we have, there are lots of boards to be had.

[rsvman]

The rebounding is impressive, and it's really what we are doing best.

The zone works pretty well against State because it takes away their principal offensive strategy. Johnson is quick, but not a great outside shooter.

[rsvman]

We are passing it better now.

[mattyoung18]

Goldwire is my stage 5 clinger!

[wavedukefan70s]

Glad to see Robinson and goldwire having solid play.

[Dukehk]

Nothing is easy for the rest of the season.

Kind of sucks to see us regressing at the most important time of the year.

I hope K can turn it around but our seeding probably won't be favorable this year.

[dukelifer]

Love it when Tre is a passer

[downeastdad]

Love it when Tre is a passer

And when Cash is a dunker!

[BlueandWhite]

Holy. Cow.

[dukelifer]

Holy. Cow.

World class dunk

[AtlBluRew]

Bilas just can’t help but talk about Carolina, can he? He was just talking about Garrison Brooks.

What a sycophant.

[rsvman]

Stanley will be on top ten.

[dukelifer]

Bilas just can’t help but talk about Carolina, can he? He was just talking about Garrison Brooks.

What a sycophant.

Talk him up- I want him to go pro

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

How many layups have we missed? So frustrating.

Dunks seem to work better.

[mattyoung18]

My weeks ruined now Bilas will be back to call his alma mater Uncheat Saturday night.My mute button will be worn out.

[arnie]

Stanley taking over - we need this badly.

[Indoor66]

Somebody caused an awakening....

[Indoor66]

I think he called for a zone...

[TKG]

Can we close?

[szstark]

Somebody caused an awakening...

I think it was us!

[Clocktower]

And with some confidence back we’re even making the little short shots and attacking. Thank God for JRob and for Cassius in attack mode this half. Need to finish strong.

[heyman25]

The return of the real Cassius Stanley. Props to the team and Goldwire for helping Tre out

[Indoor66]

PLEASE don't slow it down!

[heyman25]

I think we can all exhale Duke has gotten its MOJO back. However it is not over by any means. Cryolina needs the same intensity Saturday. Not these crappy tentative starts Duke has displayed all season.

[rsvman]

PLEASE don't slow it down!

I'm ok with the slowdown provided we don't do what we did in that last possession; i.e., have one guy dribble the whole time and then have that guy go one on five.

I actually like wasting some clock in this setting, but run an offense and pass the ball. Keep the motion going.

[arnie]

PLEASE don't slow it down!

Probably ok now to slow it up, but generally agree with you. “Player of the Game” is our FT shooting.

[downeastdad]

Manny Bates with nearly a full Javin.

[HaveFunExpectToWin]

Been wondering this all season. Who is the cameraman wearing the Asian-style straw hat? And why?

[heyman25]

Kind of glad no Alex O'Connell or Jack White today.

[bundabergdevil]

What on earth are the announcers blathering about?

[dukelifer]

Kind of glad no Alex O'Connell or Jack White today.

Justin Robinson was the man tonight

[DarkstarWahoo]

Been wondering this all season. Who is the cameraman wearing the Asian-style straw hat? And why?

I saw that Raiden-looking dude at the NCAA soccer final!