Do slow starts doom Duke?

[rocketeli]

Doesn’t it always seem that if Duke gets off to a “slow start,” for example, missing shot after shot, that the game isn’t going to go well? It does seem that way to me lately, but I got to wondering, maybe this is just confirmation bias on my part?
So, I took a closer look at this going back to the loss to Clemson, but also including all the wins, and compared the first five minutes scoring by Duke to the overall game shooting percentages.
What I found was not quite what I expected, but first the data (if TL;DR skip to the discussion after):

Clemson L 72-79 First 5: overall 80% 3-pt 50%; for game, overall 50%, 40% from 3; Clemson 56.6% overall and 42.1% from 3. (Clemson 3pt season average 32.1)

Louisville L 73-79 First 5: overall 33.3% 3-pt 33.3%; for game overall 37.1%, 24% from 3; Louisville 48.3% overall and 50% from 3 (Louisville 3pt season average 37.9)

Miami W 89-59 First 5 overall 62.5% 3pt 66.7; for game overall 53.1%, 3pt 44%; Miami 30% overall 22.2% from 3

Pitt W 79-67 First 5 overall 42.9% 3pt 33.3%; game overall 48.4, 3pt 34.6; Pitt overall 43.9 3pt 33.3%

Syracuse W 97-88 First 5 overall 40%, 3pt 0%; game overall 57.4%, 3pt 35.5% Syracuse 38.6% overall, 3pt 23.1%

BC W 63-55 First 5 overall 16.7%, 3 pt 0%; game overall37.7% 3pt 6.7%; BC overall 37.5% 3pt 11.1%

UNC W 98-96 (probably because UNC’s contract with Satan may have expired) First 5 overall 22.2%, 3pt 50%; game overall 42.5% 3pt 22.2% ; UNC overall 52.2%, 3pt 25%

FSU W 70-65 First 5 overall 50%, 3pt 66.7%, game overall 45.1% 3pt 41.2%; FSU overall 37.9% 3pt 16.7%

ND W 94-60 First 5 overall 57.1% 3pt 0%, game overall 56.5% 3pt 45.5%; ND overall 36.5% 3pt 23.8%

NCSU L 66-88 First 5 overall 14.3% 3pt 0%, game overall 37.7% 3pt 23.5%; NCSU overall 45.1% 3pt 61.5% (NCSU season 3pt average 32.4)

VT W 88-64 First 5 overall 77.8% 3pt 80%, game overall 43.5%, 3pt 42.3; VT overall 37.5% 3pt 33.3%

WFU L 113-101 First 5 overall 37.5% 3pt 50%; game overall 42.7% 3pt 26.1%; WFU overall 51.5%, 3pt 54.5% (WFU 3pt season average 34.1)

In the immortal words of Rudy Rucker, “The universe is like a dish of hard candy; everything sticks together.” So, looking at shooting in isolation is of limited utility, as there are many other facets of the game that a team can succeed or fail at doing. But was there any huge trend in this admittedly small sample vis a vis the first 5 minutes versus the game and the outcomes?

Quick answer: not really.
In 9 wins, the overall shooting in the first five minutes was better than the overall game shooting in 5 games and worse in 4.
In 4 loses, the overall shooting in the first five minutes was better than the overall game shooting in 2 games and worse in 2.

BUT… as I highlighted above there was one constant factor in all four loses: Duke allowed the opponent to shoot way better than usual from 3-point range.

I don’t have the resources to really break down why this might be so. Luck? Matchups? Our defensive scheme? Their offensive scheme? Some combination of the above? (and FWIW Stephen F. Austin did not do well from 3 against Duke.)

If this really is an important or even deciding factor, hopefully the coaching staff is on it and can make necessary adjustments.

[uh_no]

i'm not sure shooting % is the best proxy for slow start. It's certainly a component, but not the be-all-end-all, as it doesn't consider total number of shots, which is affected by boards and turnovers.

[rasputin]

i'm not sure shooting % is the best proxy for slow start. It's certainly a component, but not the be-all-end-all, as it doesn't consider total number of shots, which is affected by boards and turnovers.
The problem last night was with the end of regulation, not the beginning.

[CDu]

The problem last night was with the end of regulation, not the beginning.

Well, it was a bit of both. We got behind by 12 over the first 14 minutes by playing with malaise. That meant that the +21 differential we produced over the next 25 minutes only left us up by 9. But yes, the crumble was much more drastic in the last 81 seconds.

[jv001]

The problem last night was with the end of regulation, not the beginning.

I agree the problem was the last 1:21 in regulation. J-Rob came off the bench in the first half when Vernon and Javin were in foul trouble. Coach K commented if not for J-Rob, we would probably would have been down by 10-15 points. The last 1:21 in regulation spoiled a performance Duke fans would have been talking about today. Most of the blame goes on two guards that have played a lot of minutes and are supposed to be good ball handlers. One a junior guard that looked shaky under the pressure and the other a freshmen that's had problems with turnovers for most of the season. I agree with CDu that maybe the problem is most of these players are just not that good. If they were, we would see more improvement since the beginning of the year. Tre, Cassius and Vernon are better than average college players. Hurt and Wendell are average college players with some good points and some bad ones. Jordan maybe could be average because of his defense but his offense is below average. I have no idea what to expect the rest of the season but I'll be watching and rooting for our guys to win.

GoDuke!