MBB: Duke 88, Va Tech 64 Post-Game Thread

[JBDuke]

Put your post-game thoughts here.

[duke4ever19]

That went well.

[rsvman]

Good bounce back from that horrible loss on Wednesday. Nice team effort. Defense looked a lot better.

[Furniture]

Pleasing win.

[53n206]

Good win.. We were outscored in 2nf half.

[Devilwin]

Simply great first half. Not so much in the second half, but I guess we were coasting. Nice end of game play by JRob..

[scottdude8]

I expect to see the 4 around 1 starting lineup the rest of the way. I think K wants this to be the go-to group.

I also loved Hurt’s effort today. I think the new starting lineup might benefit him... K can find the right matchup for him to exploit, rather than having him have to adjust to whom ever the opponent is starting.

Jack getting only one minute of PT (approximately) is curious. I think this team will need his toughness and grit at some point down the stretch.

[Saratoga2]

Stanley had a big game along with a lot of defensive energy. AOC was aggressive, Hurt was also aggressive and pretty effective. That's 3 guys who had little impact on Wednesday and their combined contribution had to come to at least 35 points along with rebounds, blocks and defensive energy. I didn't check the stats but Stanley was over 20 and AOC got at least 4 and Hurt hit quite often.

These guys have got to show up for us and when they dow, it looks like Duke can go ttoe to toe with anyone.

[weezie]

Why do I think we're on thin ice?
Just uneasy.

[ncexnyc]

It was a really nice win tonight, but we shouldn't get to worked up over it, as VaTech was a really good match-up for us, especially Hurt.

[heyman25]

That was much better.
However Duke was complacent in the second half and lost in points 39-37.
Nitpicking because Duke needs a lot of work to go for for the rest of the season.
Hurt, Stanley and Goldwire put up some points and had good floor games.
Hurt was only 6/10 on Free Throws not good.
O'Connell had the ball pulled from his hands again like the NC State game.
I think Baker and White may be seeing fewer minutes because of their inconsistent play.
This game could have been a confidence builder if both had more minutes.
Carey and Jones remain our stars and Stanley could be if he builds on tonight's game.

[dukelifer]

After Wake, three very tough games to end the season. Important to peak at the right time. Stanley and Hurt with big games. Tre did not have a great game. He is the key to Duke making a run.

[roywhite]

Cassius Stanley was superb:

21 points including 5-7 from 3-pt
7 rebounds
0 turnovers

[duke96]

Why do I think we're on thin ice?
Just uneasy.

Same feeling here. Hope we’re wrong....

[budwom]

Anyone notice Bucky Waters having a nice snooze at 7:43pm? Crowd seemed pretty raucous otherwise...

[uh_no]

That was much better.
However Duke was complacent in the second half and lost in points 39-37.
Nitpicking because Duke needs a lot of work to go for for the rest of the season.
Hurt, Stanley and Goldwire put up some points and had good floor games.
Hurt was only 6/10 on Free Throws not good.
O'Connell had the ball pulled from his hands again like the NC State game.
I think Baker and White may be seeing fewer minutes because of their inconsistent play.
This game could have been a confidence builder if both had more minutes.
Carey and Jones remain our stars and Stanley could be if he builds on tonight's game.

wasn't k looser with the lineup after we got u 30+? i wouldn't read too much into it.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

If you haven't watched K's presser yet, I recommend it. I particularly enjoyed his comments beginning around 9:40 mark regarding how they engaged the team after the loss to State. It seems even clearer to me now that Coach K saw the loss was inevitable and leveraged the heck out of it for the benefit of the team going forward.



https://youtu.be/eJFB0cD4uAI

[Kedsy]

After Wake, three very tough games to end the season. Important to peak at the right time. Stanley and Hurt with big games. Tre did not have a great game. He is the key to Duke making a run.

I only count two tough games, plus the ACC's last place team, at home.

[sagegrouse]

Anyone notice Bucky Waters having a nice snooze at 7:43pm? Crowd seemed pretty raucous otherwise...

Nice catch. I am glad he is coming to games. He was at Duke so long ago, he was my PE coach for boxing and gymnastics sometime in the last millennium.

[Indoor66]

Anyone notice Bucky Waters having a nice snooze at 7:43pm? Crowd seemed pretty raucous otherwise...

Bucky has earned a rest.

[Kedsy]

Nice bounce back. FWIW, our numbers were practically off the charts in the first half -- 1.41 oRating (1.46 adjusted) and 0.69 dRating (0.66 adjusted). Obviously we coasted a bit in the second half, but I suppose that's only natural.

OFFENSE

Possessions: 72.5 (against one of the slowest teams in the country (311th adjusted tempo), Duke won the battle of the pace)
oRtg: 1.21 (1.26 adjusted; very good, including an amazing first half)
eFG%: 52.4% (good, not spectacular)
3pt%: 42.3% (excellent)
2pt%: 44.4% (not so great)
%threes: 41.9% (probably too high in general, but on a night where we were so good from three and not so good from two, taking this many was probably the right decision)
FT rate: 50.0% (great; 3rd highest of the season)
OR%: 35.0% (good but not great)
TO%: 12.4% (outstanding; 4th lowest offensive turnover performance of the season)
a/to: 1.56:1 (good)
%assisted: 51.9%
fast break pts: 17 (19.3% of points; pretty good against a deliberate halfcourt team, especially since we forced so few turnovers)

DEFENSE

dRtg: 0.88 (0.85 adjusted; very good; believe it or not, our third adjusted dRating under 0.86 out of four games)
eFG%: 43.3% (good)
3pt%: 33.3% (acceptable)
2pt%: 39.5% (superb)
%threes: 35.8% (a bit high for Duke, but since VaTech generally takes almost 47% of their shots from three (18th most in the country), this is pretty good)
FT rate: 10.4% (excellent; 2nd lowest defensive FTR of the season; though since VaTech ranks #337 in the nation in this stat, it may not be as impressive as it appears)
DR%: 87.5% (amazing; 2nd best DR% of the season; though since VaTech ranks #321 in the country in offensive rebounding, it (again) may not be as impressive as it looks)
TO%: 11.0% (2nd worst defensive TO performance of the season, but since VaTech coughs up the 5th lowest percentage of turnovers per possession, this was maybe to be expected)
a/to: 1.63:1 (meh)
%assisted: 52.0%
stl%: 5.5% (blech; 7th disappointing steals performance in our last 9 games)
blk%: 13.4% (20.9% of 2pt shots) (outstanding)
fast break pts: 15 (23.4% of points; against a team that rarely runs, this is pretty bad)


Against State, our inability to force turnovers coupled with our opponent's hitting an inordinate percentage of their threes led to our worst defensive performance of the season. Interestingly, despite failing to turn over the Hokies in this game (even lower TO% than against NCSU), by dominating the defensive boards, keeping them off the free throw line, and stifling their two-point shooting, we turned in a stellar defensive performance. On offense, we were pretty good at all four factors, led by our own three-point shooting.

Especially considering how we blew the doors off in the first half, you can't help but give the team an "A" for its bounce back effort after one of our worst performances in years.

[budwom]

Nice catch. I am glad he is coming to games. He was at Duke so long ago, he was my PE coach for boxing and gymnastics sometime in the last millennium.

He seems to get on camera every single game, though his seats vary some...yes, he has rebounded very well from his ignominious tenure at Duke, had a good, long career at the hospital....some of his former players whom I've spoken with agree, say he's "been rehabilitated." Good for him.

[Nugget]

Anyone notice Bucky Waters having a nice snooze at 7:43pm? Crowd seemed pretty raucous otherwise...

I did - that was amusing.

[roywhite]

He seems to get on camera every single game, though his seats vary some...yes, he has rebounded very well from his ignominious tenure at Duke, had a good, long career at the hospital...some of his former players whom I've spoken with agree, say he's "been rehabilitated." Good for him.

Just looked it up; Bucky is 84.

Older than Dick Vitale, who turned 80 last year, but younger than Hubie Brown, who is still going strong at age 86.

[Bob Green]

Anyone notice Bucky Waters having a nice snooze at 7:43pm? Crowd seemed pretty raucous otherwise...

That’s appropriate seeing as he was asleep at the wheel ‘69 to ‘73.

[UrinalCake]

Really impressed with Hurt, it looked like he knew he needed to be more aggressive and play a bigger role in the offense. Early on he took the ball most of the length of the court through multiple defenders before finishing at the rim, which is not something I’ve ever seen him do before. Defensively he was equally engaged, really played a solid game which will be key for us moving forward if the team is to reach its ceiling.

Stanley drilling threes is obviously a great thing to see. Coming into the game I wanted to know how effective our post defense would be, when in the first matchup VT forced us to go small. We got that figured out which is another great sign.

[szstark]

Why do I think we're on thin ice?
Just uneasy.

Okay, I’ll bite - why do you think we are on thin ice?

[Saratoga2]

Having had some time to review the stats and think additionally about the VTech game, I believe the VTech set up their defense to stop Vernon by double teaming and even triple teaming him while daring us to beat them from outside. VTech doesn't have inside players that can match up with Vernon so it was a logical defensive approach, plus it worked to some degree in our game at Blacksburgh. The difference this time is that we were in a friendly and familiar environment and the team was rested. Probably also more than a little upset with getting blown out by NC State.

Turns out we had Cassius go off from long range and also Tre and Matthew and even Vernon were hitting from deep. Our defense was very active and we quickly built a huge lead.

We did expend a lot of energy getting that lead and somehow we got sloppy and careless toward the end of the first half and throughout the second half. I believe part of that was due to switching lineups often with guys that may not have worked as well together, but we never we threatened and starters got some rest and alternates got valuable PT.

We have a stonrg lineup with Tre, Vernon, Cassius, Matthew, Wendell and Jordan used in some combination depending on matchups. A lot of fine defensive players in the group and csollid scorers. I think we also have seen the emergence of Alex who has been flying around from rebounds, defensive plays and aggressive scoring attempts. Based on what I have seen as well as the minutes allocated, Alex seems to be just behind the others as a sub.

So were there some concerns? I would say the old cliche applies. We need to value each golden possession. Making difficult long passes down the court when your clearly beating a team with the half court offensive makes no sense. We had two of those in short order that provided two good scoring opportunities for VT.

Should we be using Javin to handle the ball in high screen situations? Clearly that is not what he does well and if he dribbles he can be enduced to turn the ball over. When Alex dribbles with his back to a defender, and tries to spin into the lane, he is fairly prone to turn the ball over. Wendell is also turnover prone and needs to pick his driving situations and passing situations more carefully.

We need Javin to spell Vernon so he should be used to defend, rebound and try to avoid careless fouls. He can and will help the team in that way. Joey tries very hard and is aggressive but is still raw and has seen his minutes drop as his shot is not as consistent as it may become. Jack really is puzzling. I really don't know what happened to him but he only got 3 minutes last night.

Those are not a large list of concerns so I am optimistic that the team is capable of competing with anyone. I would see 3 of the next 4 games as being significant tests. Is NC State a matchup problem for us? Will UVas defense give us fits? We know UNC will play their hearts out against us. Be fun to watch.

[dukelifer]

I only count two tough games, plus the ACC's last place team, at home.
Yes two tough games and one game that should not be tough on paper but will be tough on game day.

[hustleplays]

If you haven't watched K's presser yet, I recommend it. I particularly enjoyed his comments beginning around 9:40 mark regarding how they engaged the team after the loss to State. It seems even clearer to me now that Coach K saw the loss was inevitable and leveraged the heck out of it for the benefit of the team going forward.



https://youtu.be/eJFB0cD4uAI

I heartily 2nd the motion that K's presser is worth watching. [Dr R, I clocked the section you cite as beginning at around the 7:30 mark, but perhaps we have different feeds/versions.]

I think that this is Must See viewing to understand K's attitude toward lackadaisical effort and how he and his staff handle it. Several highlights: K said that he was angry at them [the players], but they need to be angry at themselves. He said that we don't put them through "animal, crazy I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this." drills, we just tell them and show them the truth: Here is who we are. I noted that he used the "we' word here. For example, the staff showed the players bench shots -- how they were comatose.

K said that the greatest gift God has given each of us is our attitude, and our attitude is something that we can totally control. The key elements that he and his staff inculcated were: Attitude, Belief, Preparation and Execution. K was really pleased that the players responded totally positively, and showed it by demonstrating positive Attitude, Belief, Preparation and Execution against VT.

I felt that K was, deep down, okay with the loss, given how important the teaching lesson was. He said he hoped that the team would not come out again, prior to the Tournament, the way they did against State. But if they do, the coaching staff will go through the same process.

I felt good about our team after watching the presser. Yes, they came out flat against State, but, boy, did K and his staff go after root motivational cause, with skill and care. K seems to be a pretty gifted team motivator. [ironic humor] As someone who also does motivational leadership for a living [in industry], my hat is off, and not for the first time.

I digress, but how many coaches can an ACC team have? Can we just call J Rob something else? How cool would that be to have him on our coaching staff!

Go Duke!

[kshepinthehouse]

Having had some time to review the stats and think additionally about the VTech game, I believe the VTech set up their defense to stop Vernon by double teaming and even triple teaming him while daring us to beat them from outside. VTech doesn't have inside players that can match up with Vernon so it was a logical defensive approach, plus it worked to some degree in our game at Blacksburgh. The difference this time is that we were in a friendly and familiar environment and the team was rested. Probably also more than a little upset with getting blown out by NC State.

Turns out we had Cassius go off from long range and also Tre and Matthew and even Vernon were hitting from deep. Our defense was very active and we quickly built a huge lead.

We did expend a lot of energy getting that lead and somehow we got sloppy and careless toward the end of the first half and throughout the second half. I believe part of that was due to switching lineups often with guys that may not have worked as well together, but we never we threatened and starters got some rest and alternates got valuable PT.

We have a stonrg lineup with Tre, Vernon, Cassius, Matthew, Wendell and Jordan used in some combination depending on matchups. A lot of fine defensive players in the group and csollid scorers. I think we also have seen the emergence of Alex who has been flying around from rebounds, defensive plays and aggressive scoring attempts. Based on what I have seen as well as the minutes allocated, Alex seems to be just behind the others as a sub.

So were there some concerns? I would say the old cliche applies. We need to value each golden possession. Making difficult long passes down the court when your clearly beating a team with the half court offensive makes no sense. We had two of those in short order that provided two good scoring opportunities for VT.

Should we be using Javin to handle the ball in high screen situations? Clearly that is not what he does well and if he dribbles he can be enduced to turn the ball over. When Alex dribbles with his back to a defender, and tries to spin into the lane, he is fairly prone to turn the ball over. Wendell is also turnover prone and needs to pick his driving situations and passing situations more carefully.

We need Javin to spell Vernon so he should be used to defend, rebound and try to avoid careless fouls. He can and will help the team in that way. Joey tries very hard and is aggressive but is still raw and has seen his minutes drop as his shot is not as consistent as it may become. Jack really is puzzling. I really don't know what happened to him but he only got 3 minutes last night.

Those are not a large list of concerns so I am optimistic that the team is capable of competing with anyone. I would see 3 of the next 4 games as being significant tests. Is NC State a matchup problem for us? Will UVas defense give us fits? We know UNC will play their hearts out against us. Be fun to watch.

Also thought Vernon did a good job of passing out of those double teams instead of charging ahead against them. This is a key to our season in my opinion as it can really open up the offense and give our 3 point shooters some good looks from 3.

[dukelifer]

I heartily 2nd the motion that K's presser is worth watching. [Dr R, I clocked the section you cite as beginning at around the 7:30 mark, but perhaps we have different feeds/versions.]

I think that this is Must See viewing to understand K's attitude toward lackadaisical effort and how he and his staff handle it. Several highlights: K said that he was angry at them [the players], but they need to be angry at themselves. He said that we don't put them through "animal, crazy I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this." drills, we just tell them and show them the truth: Here is who we are. I noted that he used the "we' word here. For example, the staff showed the players bench shots -- how they were comatose.

K said that the greatest gift God has given each of us is our attitude, and our attitude is something that we can totally control. The key elements that he and his staff inculcated were: Attitude, Belief, Preparation and Execution. K was really pleased that the players responded totally positively, and showed it by demonstrating positive Attitude, Belief, Preparation and Execution against VT.

I felt that K was, deep down, okay with the loss, given how important the teaching lesson was. He said he hoped that the team would not come out again, prior to the Tournament, the way they did against State. But if they do, the coaching staff will go through the same process.

I felt good about our team after watching the presser. Yes, they came out flat against State, but, boy, did K and his staff go after root motivational cause, with skill and care. K seems to be a pretty gifted team motivator. [ironic humor] As someone who also does motivational leadership for a living [in industry], my hat is off, and not for the first time.

I digress, but how many coaches can an ACC team have? Can we just call J Rob something else? How cool would that be to have him on our coaching staff!

Go Duke!

Give K a few more years and he may develop into a decent coach ;)

[richardjackson199]

Okay, I’ll bite - why do you think we are on thin ice?

I won't say thin ice, but our game AT Wake Forest Tuesday will be very difficult to win I believe. Do not underestimate just how hostile the Winston-Salem Wake fans are toward Duke. I don't understand it. But I've seen it, and seen it recently. We need to bring our A+ game and expect an all-out War. If not we could be looking at another NC State level beat-down on the road. Louisville and FSU have an obvious tough next test. But so do we. Expect nothing like the game in Cameron when they played without Brown.

Let's Go Duke! Get that Dub

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Also thought Vernon did a good job of passing out of those double teams instead of charging ahead against them. This is a key to our season in my opinion as it can really open up the offense and give our 3 point shooters some good looks from 3.
Coach K also commented on this during his presser. Said this year Vernon first learned to play post. Then teams started doubling him because he was so good and so he had to learn how to handle it. Which he has done nicely. And now Duke is running sets to allow the ball to be entered into him from the top instead of the wing since they feel it counters the effort by opponents to double team him. It gives him more space to operate. Really an interesting set of thoughts K shared on Vernon’s learning this year. And pretty amazing that he’s been able to make so much progress in 3/4 of one season. And K gave props to Nate for his great work with Vernon.

[kshepinthehouse]

I won't say thin ice, but our game AT Wake Forest Tuesday will be very difficult to win I believe. Do not underestimate just how hostile the Winston-Salem Wake fans are toward Duke. I don't understand it. But I've seen it, and seen it recently. We need to bring our A+ game and expect an all-out War. If not we could be looking at another NC State level beat-down on the road. Louisville and FSU have an obvious tough next test. But so do we. Expect nothing like the game in Cameron when they played without Brown.

Let's Go Duke! Get that Dub

I wholehearted agree. Just like many other teams, these fans will gear up for Duke. Really hoping we don’t start out slow in this one.

[budwom]

as others have noted, VT tried to surround Carey, leaving our shooters open. State (and other quick teams) do a better job of not letting our shooters get much space. Hurt, for example, needs some time to unwind that large body...State didn't give it to him, VT did.

[Kedsy]

I won't say thin ice, but our game AT Wake Forest Tuesday will be very difficult to win I believe. Do not underestimate just how hostile the Winston-Salem Wake fans are toward Duke. I don't understand it. But I've seen it, and seen it recently. We need to bring our A+ game and expect an all-out War. If not we could be looking at another NC State level beat-down on the road. Louisville and FSU have an obvious tough next test. But so do we. Expect nothing like the game in Cameron when they played without Brown.

Let's Go Duke! Get that Dub

While I don't wish to anger the weauf gods, and I agree we can't overlook any opponent, a road game at State and a road game at Wake are not nearly the same thing. For example, since (and including) 2010, our record @NCSU is 2-5 and our record @Wake is 8-1. For another thing, NCSU is rated #51 by Pomeroy and Wake is rated #104. In fact, Pomeroy currently ranks Wake Forest as the 14th best team in the ACC. Even if we only bring our C+ game, I'd be shocked if we were looking at anything close to "another NC State level beat-down."

[HereBeforeCoachK]

While I don't wish to anger the weauf gods, and I agree we can't overlook any opponent, a road game at State and a road game at Wake are not nearly the same thing. For example, since (and including) 2010, our record @NCSU is 2-5 and our record @Wake is 8-1. For another thing, NCSU is rated #51 by Pomeroy and Wake is rated #104. In fact, Pomeroy currently ranks Wake Forest as the 14th best team in the ACC. Even if we only bring our C+ game, I'd be shocked if we were looking at anything close to "another NC State level beat-down."

And with that 2-5 record, I'm thinking Duke was favored in every game, and sometimes by a lot....to go 2-5 as an underdog is one thing...to go 2-5 as a fave is another. I think K all time is 8-7 in that arena, favored in every single game.

[Indoor66]

No Man of the Match poll?

[devildeac]

No Man of the Match poll?

Our 26 point halftime lead was too much for the board bandwith to handle...

[ncexnyc]

I won't say thin ice, but our game AT Wake Forest Tuesday will be very difficult to win I believe. Do not underestimate just how hostile the Winston-Salem Wake fans are toward Duke. I don't understand it. But I've seen it, and seen it recently. We need to bring our A+ game and expect an all-out War. If not we could be looking at another NC State level beat-down on the road. Louisville and FSU have an obvious tough next test. But so do we. Expect nothing like the game in Cameron when they played without Brown.

Let's Go Duke! Get that Dub

Great points, especially the one about Brown. A lot of people look at final scores, but don't go deeper and understand how those outcomes came to be. Brown's a very good player and his absence in the first game enabled us to focus on Childress.

[sagegrouse]

No Man of the Match poll?

Cassius wants to know.

[-jk]

No Man of the Match poll?

Start one!

-jk

[Music man55]

Great start out of the gate and reaped some very good benefits from it. I like the four around one offense. Spreads out the floor, gives Vernon more space to either kick out or post move toward the basket.Cassius and Tre started the barrage of threes and then Matt came off the bench and played his best all around game this season.Coach K really got their attention after the State game.I'll bet they don't come out of the locker room lackadaisical any more.

[Tooold]

Also thought Vernon did a good job of passing out of those double teams instead of charging ahead against them. This is a key to our season in my opinion as it can really open up the offense and give our 3 point shooters some good looks from 3.

Vernon said (in his post game interview, I believe) that they worked on this in practice. The coaches specifically told him that he would not be able to shoot the first time he got the ball in the paint because of the double team...that he would need to pass back out, and when they passed it back to him he would have a good shooting option.

I guess our guys pay attention to what they are told in practice (as opposed to a team down the road, who, daggumit, cannot remember to do the things they were taught in practice).

[DU82]

Something not mentioned here, I believe, but was said on the post-game radio, we have clinched a double-bye in the ACC tournament.

[du_bb1]

I agree with the comment on Hurt. Believe the end of the FSU was his coming out. Since then he has played with more physicality and is attacking the basket much stronger-and rebounds. Just keep progressing !

[roywhite]

Something not mentioned here, I believe, but was said on the post-game radio, we have clinched a double-bye in the ACC tournament.

Meanwhile, Tuesday basketball in Greensboro will feature the Tar Heels.

[Indoor66]

Start one!

-jk

Don't know how.

[hustleplays]

While I don't wish to anger the weauf gods, and I agree we can't overlook any opponent, a road game at State and a road game at Wake are not nearly the same thing. For example, since (and including) 2010, our record @NCSU is 2-5 and our record @Wake is 8-1. For another thing, NCSU is rated #51 by Pomeroy and Wake is rated #104. In fact, Pomeroy currently ranks Wake Forest as the 14th best team in the ACC. Even if we only bring our C+ game, I'd be shocked if we were looking at anything close to "another NC State level beat-down."

Kedsy, I sincerely want to better understand your reasoning and perspective.

You cite our very disparate away game records between NCSU and Wake. You note NCSU and Wake's disparate Pomeroy ratings. Given those stats, you state that you would be shocked if we would experience anything close to a NCSU level beat-down, even if we brought our C+ game.

I have several questions: Would you be shocked if Wake gave us a very close game, maybe even beating us?

Of the two sets of stats, our road record against these two opponents and their own divergent Pomeroy ratings, which is more predictive, in your view?

I'm thinking of our games against UNC. I don't know our record against them in Chapel Hill, but it probably isn't too lop-sided either way. Our respective Pomeroy ratings are quite different this year. I don't imagine that you were shocked by the taut contest recently at the Dean Dome.

Does the different level of rival intensity [between us and Wake vs. us and UNC] figure into your own expectations?

Thank you for your explanation and your continuous stat edification!

[Kedsy]

Kedsy, I sincerely want to better understand your reasoning and perspective.

You cite our very disparate away game records between NCSU and Wake. You note NCSU and Wake's disparate Pomeroy ratings. Given those stats, you state that you would be shocked if we would experience anything close to a NCSU level beat-down, even if we brought our C+ game.

I have several questions: Would you be shocked if Wake gave us a very close game, maybe even beating us?

I'm never shocked if an ACC road game ends up a tight game. I'm rarely completely surprised if we lose a close ACC road game. But double-digit beatdown Duke losses are very rare, and seem to happen more often at State than elsewhere. (Though the past few years we have also had trouble at Clemson and at Virginia Tech, though neither at the level of Wednesday's loss, other than Clemson's 74-47 win over us in 2009.)


Of the two sets of stats, our road record against these two opponents and their own divergent Pomeroy ratings, which is more predictive, in your view?

The teams' relative rating is more predictive. Against a team of this year's Wake team's caliber, even a not-so-good performance by a team of this year's Duke team's caliber is usually enough to win a close game (see this year's pedestrian road performance at Georgia Tech, a team rated a fair amount higher than Wake Forest, which ended in a 9-point Duke win). A good performance by Duke should mean a not-so-close game (see our road game at Miami, a team rated about the same at Wake, which ended as a 30+ point Duke blowout win). With Wake's team strength, Wake would have to play one of their best games of the season to hang close with Duke and/or Duke would have to put up a real stinker. And sure, that might happen. But again, that would lead to a close game, not a State-level blowout with Wake on top.


I'm thinking of our games against UNC. I don't know our record against them in Chapel Hill, but it probably isn't too lop-sided either way. Our respective Pomeroy ratings are quite different this year. I don't imagine that you were shocked by the taut contest recently at the Dean Dome.

During Coach K's time at Duke, when either Duke or UNC is top 10 and the other is unranked, the better team has a record of 19-4 (9-1 at home; 9-3 on the road; 1-0 in ACCT). Sure, a lot of times the games are closer than you'd expect given the talent disparity, but the better team almost always wins. Which is what happened in Chapel Hill (admittedly much more of a nail biter than I expected) and what will likely happen in Durham.


Does the different level of rival intensity [between us and Wake vs. us and UNC] figure into your own expectations?

Thank you for your explanation and your continuous stat edification!

Perhaps. Certainly, Duke and UNC play with more energy when they meet than Duke and Wake Forest. The Duke and UNC players have also seemed to buy into the idea that "anything can happen" in a Duke/UNC game, and that sort of thing is often a self-fulfilling prophecy. I doubt Duke and Wake Forest players believe any such superstitions about the Duke/Wake series.

[hustleplays]

I'm never shocked if an ACC road game ends up a tight game. I'm rarely completely surprised if we lose a close ACC road game. But double-digit beatdown Duke losses are very rare, and seem to happen more often at State than elsewhere. (Though the past few years we have also had trouble at Clemson and at Virginia Tech, though neither at the level of Wednesday's loss, other than Clemson's 74-47 win over us in 2009.)



The teams' relative rating is more predictive. Against a team of this year's Wake team's caliber, even a not-so-good performance by a team of this year's Duke team's caliber is usually enough to win a close game (see this year's pedestrian road performance at Georgia Tech, a team rated a fair amount higher than Wake Forest, which ended in a 9-point Duke win). A good performance by Duke should mean a not-so-close game (see our road game at Miami, a team rated about the same at Wake, which ended as a 30+ point Duke blowout win). With Wake's team strength, Wake would have to play one of their best games of the season to hang close with Duke and/or Duke would have to put up a real stinker. And sure, that might happen. But again, that would lead to a close game, not a State-level blowout with Wake on top.



During Coach K's time at Duke, when either Duke or UNC is top 10 and the other is unranked, the better team has a record of 19-4 (9-1 at home; 9-3 on the road; 1-0 in ACCT). Sure, a lot of times the games are closer than you'd expect given the talent disparity, but the better team almost always wins. Which is what happened in Chapel Hill (admittedly much more of a nail biter than I expected) and what will likely happen in Durham.



Perhaps. Certainly, Duke and UNC play with more energy when they meet than Duke and Wake Forest. The Duke and UNC players have also seemed to buy into the idea that "anything can happen" in a Duke/UNC game, and that sort of thing is often a self-fulfilling prophecy. I doubt Duke and Wake Forest players believe any such superstitions about the Duke/Wake series.


Thanks very much for taking the time to answer my questions.

Very interesting stats, including the Duke/UNC stats when one team is ranked, the other not. Tre and Wendell sure did their their best to ensure that the better team almost always wins.

Do you think that our relatively paltry record at the PNC Arena is an anomaly, a result of a too small sample size?

[Kedsy]

Do you think that our relatively paltry record at the PNC Arena is an anomaly, a result of a too small sample size?

I don't know. It may be an anomaly, or it may be at least in part due to NC State getting all riled up to face us (as if we're a big rival) but us not getting particularly excited to play them (not viewing them as a big rival). Also, once they won a few against Duke they probably felt more confident, which can only help them play well against us the next time.

Or it could be that State has not been as bad as we think. Our five losses @NCSU came in seasons in which the Wolfpack was rated (by Pomeroy) as #50, #46, #32, #33, and #69. During that same time period, Wake Forest was only ranked inside the top 100 twice, and only once (2017) were they rated better than NC State's worst rating listed above.

[Tripping William]

I won't say thin ice, but our game AT Wake Forest Tuesday will be very difficult to win I believe. Do not underestimate just how hostile the Winston-Salem Wake fans are toward Duke. I don't understand it. But I've seen it, and seen it recently. We need to bring our A+ game and expect an all-out War. If not we could be looking at another NC State level beat-down on the road. Louisville and FSU have an obvious tough next test. But so do we. Expect nothing like the game in Cameron when they played without Brown.

Let's Go Duke! Get that Dub

Yep, all 12 of them. :o

[hustleplays]

Give K a few more years and he may develop into a decent coach ;)

Dukelifer, let's not get carried away here. Let's see if K can notch some more wins and maybe another Natty or two before we jump to that conclusion. We need to see some sustained excellence.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Yep, all 12 of them. :o

The true question is whether Wake fans will be more hostile towards Duke or towards Manning?

I get if Tim Duncan was the coach at Wake, had a terrible record like Manning, and was still the coach. But Manning isn't a Wake grad! In an era where we have plenty of impatience regarding coaches, Manning seems to have gone the other way where we have too much patience and it's clearly not going to get any better.

[UrinalCake]

The true question is whether Wake fans will be more hostile towards Duke or towards Manning?

I almost wonder if Wake fans will be rooting for a Duke win. A Wake win could save Manning’s job for another season.

[sagegrouse]

I almost wonder if Wake fans will be rooting for a Duke win. A Wake win could save Manning’s job for another season.

Along that line of thinking, I would like to give credit to ALL the members of DBR for not grousing about Duke women's basketball winning a bunch of games and -- perhaps -- saving the job of the controversial Joanne P. McCallie. I mean, we should always want Duke to win -- right?

[uh_no]

Along that line of thinking, I would like to give credit to ALL the members of DBR for not grousing about Duke women's basketball winning a bunch of games and -- perhaps -- saving the job of the controversial Joanne P. McCallie. I mean, we should always want Duke to win -- right?

If this run saves Coach P's job, I'll be very disappointed in Dr. White. I'm happy for our team, and rooting for them to take down whatever goliath they end up paired with in the tournament, and if the success of this team means a non-optimal outcome down the road...so be it.

[mkirsh]

I'm a little late to the party on comments about the game, but the yo-yoing of the last week ("we are going to with the NC!" after ND to "first weekend loss!" after NC State and then back again after VT) got me thinking about home and away performance. With apologies for Kedsy about stepping onto their data turf, I looked at home vs away performance for the past few years, and found out that this team has a MUCH larger home/road split on both offensive and defensive efficiency vs any other team in the last 6 years.


Adj O (H) Adj O (A) Adj O Diff Adj D (H) Adj D (A) Adj D Diff Total Diff
2020 119.2 110.8 8.4 85.4 95.7 10.3 18.7
[th] 2019 [td] 111.3 124.6 -13.3 88.9 92.5 3.6 -9.7
2018 [td] 118.3 121.1 -2.8 87.6 94.7 7.1 4.3
2017 [td] 125.6 118.5 7.2 97.6 97.7 0.0 7.2
2016 [td] 119.9 120.8 -0.9 96.2 101.2 5.0 4.2
2015 [td] 126.1 125.7 0.5 90.5 98.9 8.4 8.9 [td]





(Data notes: ACC games only. Source = Torvik data. Did not weight the games for # of possessions, just averaged each game (because I'm lazy)).

Some of this is due to unbalanced schedules, injuries, etc, but I thought it was interesting to look at. Generally we think of home court impacting offense (familiar shooting backgrounds, home rims, etc), but only 2 of our last 6 teams were more efficient at home, and last year's team was much worse at home (even if you take out the last 6 games without Zion, the -13 goes to -11) - I guess they took the "we wear black on the road because it's your funeral" thing seriously. That said, Duke is almost always better defensively at home, whether due to the crowd, more rest from not travelling, home officiating, or whatever. This year's team has the biggest splits of the sample, which matches they eye test of what we've seen all year, but I thought it was interesting to see it relative to recent "one and done" laden teams.

[Lurkingdukedog]

Give K a few more years and he may develop into a decent coach ;)

I think I'd agree with this sentiment. . . . .

[AZLA]

I think I'd agree with this sentiment. . . . .

His coaching, enthusiasm, and engagement against Tech was certainly a lot more present then at State -- I'm sure he was using his Jedi mind tricks -- but one of my favorite things about the last games (in addition to Cassius brilliant play) was how much K looked like he was enjoying coaching that game

[heyman25]

If this run saves Coach P's job, I'll be very disappointed in Dr. White. I'm happy for our team, and rooting for them to take down whatever goliath they end up paired with in the tournament, and if the success of this team means a non-optimal outcome down the road...so be it.
Today
It was revealed Gigi Bryant wanted to go to UCONN. Duke is never mentioned in the media about Women's Basketball in the past few years. Coach P does not inspire greatness. I will be rooting for the team,but it would really be acceptance of Duke remaining a second tier teamif they retain Coach P.