MBB: NC State 88, Duke 66 Post-Game Thread

[JBDuke]

Put your post-game thoughts here. And remember - no venting or team/player/staff bashing.

[scottdude8]

Everything about this game was an outlier.

Our inability to make a FT, let alone a layup.

NC State’s insane 3-point shooting, despite being statistically bad from there on the season.

Seemingly every bounce going their way. That darn half court shot before the half. I could go on.

Good news is, historically Duke has done some pretty nice things in seasons we’ve lost in Raleigh. This year, all of our goals are still obtainable. Yes, we need a bit more help for a No. 1 seed, but we were always going to need SOME help. But we still have a great path to raise banners in the conference.

Let’s treat this like the outlier it is, move on, and go win the ACC.

[rsvman]

Hideous.



That is all.

[duke4ever19]

I could feel K's icy handshake to Keatts from my living room.

[weezie]

yikes.....

[WakeDevil]

FSU will reap the benefit of this performance. Seminoles by double digits. The farmers can't stand prosperity.

The bad news for them is that this will help him keep his job. They aren't doing anywhere with that guy.

[Ultrarunner]

The shot just before half time says it all.
Some nights just stink.
A dozen shots half way down that rattled out on our side and a half dozen that bounced in for the Pack.
Hitting some free throws would be nice.
Next game.
Sheesh.

[weezie]

maybe we should try pink shoes

See you March 2, wolfies

[devildeac]

The shot just before half time says it all.
Some nights just stink.
A dozen shots half way down that rattled out on our side and a half dozen that bounced in for the Pack.
Hitting some free throws would be nice.
Next game.
Sheesh.

Shoulda put some comments in the I'm Not Gonna Jinx It thread...

:mad:

[proelitedota]

I understand a 10+ loss. But 20+ point loss is worrying.

We'll be lucky to make it out of the first weekend. There is something off about this team that reminds me of Rivers / Parker teams.

[UrinalCake]

Disappointing to say the least. We were thoroughly outplayed in every facet of the game. No offensive or defensive game plan to speak of. Our habit of coming out flat and failing to match our opponents’ intensity at the start played out once again, and when you give an opponent confidence and a comfortable lead they all of a sudden start playing like NBA all-stars.

Carey was his usual solid self and Jones tried to do everything he could, but was forced to play beyond his abilities and then was exhausted. Nobody else really showed up. O’Connell played okay in the first half I guess. I thought Goldwire played way too many minutes, he’s had some nice offensive games but when we’re behind he doesn’t give us anything and even defensively he wasn’t able to generate much.

I’m not really one who believes in the whole “this will wake the team up, they’ll play better because of this loss” line of thinking. This was just a butt whooping, plain and simple. We had a small window in the second half where we cut the lead to 9 or 10 and could have come back had we played perfectly the rest of the game, but it just wasn’t going to happen tonight. Hard to imagine this is the same team that just beat FSU on 48 hours rest.

[devildeac]

FSU will reap the benefit of this performance. Seminoles by double digits. The farmers can't stand prosperity.

The bad news for them is that this will help him keep his job. They aren't doing anywhere with that guy.

And the cheats who'll beat them by double digits at the Myth Center.

Should be a good win for the Pack's NIT seeding. :mad:

[ncexnyc]

Coach K shouldn't throw anyone under the bus, but hopefully he doesn't let any of the players ride it home.

[Dub]

Wish I could say I was surprised. We came out flat and they didn’t. This is the same team that lost to SFA and can easily lose the first weekend. Won’t go all debbie downer, but we have depth that we should use. When we use it, we can be a thing of beauty. When we go all hero ball, you’ll get results like this. On to the next one.

Also don’t like the poor sportsmanship by K on the handshake to Keats but I guess a convo for another day.

[luvdahops]

For any “This is Spinal Tap” fans out there...this game warrants a merely two-word review

[Ultrarunner]

Shoulda put some comments in the I'm Not Gonna Jinx It thread...

:mad:

My bad.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

The shot just before half time says it all.
Some nights just stink.
.

Syracuse
Arizona
Tonight

We don't do well when someone launches a dagger at us right before half.....

[Pghdukie]

Let's move on. Virginia Tech Saturday night. No sense crying about this fiasco.

[Coballs]

We've seen how good this team can be. And now we see how awful they can be. This performance was atrocious. They looked completely lost and unprepared.

[weezie]

Coach K shouldn't throw anyone under the bus, but hopefully he doesn't let any of the players ride it home.

They can run behind the bus.

[barjwr]

Coach K shouldn't throw anyone under the bus, but hopefully he doesn't let any of the players ride it home.

Including himself. At the risk of blaspheming, I was thoroughly unimpressed with his management of our performance. Very little in terms of personnel adjustments, no defensive changes (zone? 3/4-court trap?). No TO until 2 min left in the first half to slow momentum? I thought I was watching Ol’ Roy.

[gofurman]

Start of game. hit FTs. Hit some 3s. Stop the opponent from hitting so dam many 3s. Just lazy turnovers

[DUKIE V(A)]

Interesting that Coach K saved his timeouts tonight. Usually uses them to try to lengthen games and get his players rest when making late game runs. Wonder if there is a message in that and another in pulling Tre and Vern at the end (as if to see who else would step up and play hard in the last couple minutes). There is always a method to the madness. He looked pissed tonight.

[Devilwin]

Nothing to say.. Always heard if you can't say nothing good, don't say anything..So I will keep quiet..:mad:

[devildeac]

My bad.

I was kidding. Mostly.

[scottdude8]

Disappointing to see so many all of a sudden going off the ledge and saying this is a “first weekend team”. Really? From one game, in a place where we historically have stumbled?

When you wake up tomorrow morning this will be the same team that gave us the Carolina Comeback and looked like world beaters against Notre Dame days ago. This is a solid team in a year without an incredible team in the country. All of our goals are still very achievable.

Breathe guys. Breathe.

[kako]

One thought:

1. One team came to play. The other team didn’t. The one that didn’t lost. As I feared, they thought the big win over Notre Dame was real. That game they could do no wrong. It was not real. Tonight Duke came in and played like the name on their jerseys guaranteed a win. They played slow, made stupid mistakes, couldn't hit FTs, turned the ball over, played hero ball... I could go on. But State came in hungry and ready, and from the tip they played that way. It's clear that State is not a world beater team - they made mistakes, too. But Duke couldn't take advantage, they made more mistakes. So State deserved the win. Now Duke is a very good team, and can be great. But they are also inconsistent – sometimes they show up, sometimes they don’t. At times they play like they believe the hype that’s around them. And that’s what happened tonight. I would not want to be in practice tomorrow. K is going to tear them a new one.

9F

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Yowch.

[CameronBlue]

I have only one thing to say and I never thought I would utter these words in a public forum.

God I missed Bilas.

[gofurman]

Need a third scorer. SOO many lazy turnovers. Let’s see response v VT

[Ultrarunner]

Syracuse
Arizona
Tonight

We don't do well when someone launches a dagger at us right before half....

Arizona still bugs me. On the replay on the shot, Williams couldn't even see the bucket. Didn't matter.

Didn't matter tonight.

Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good.

[Crisker]

Coach K shouldn't throw anyone under the bus, but hopefully he doesn't let any of the players ride it home.
I'm thinking he might walk home with them.

If we are a 10 deep team, we certainly did not show it tonight. The GOAT did not seem very energized or willing to roll out our "reserves" in an effort to spark something. Something was seriously off tonight, for the players and Coach K.

I don't think this was a learning game. It was something else; I hope my foreboding is misplaced.

[DUKIE V(A)]

Wish I could say I was surprised. We came out flat and they didn’t. This is the same team that lost to SFA and can easily lose the first weekend. Won’t go all debbie downer, but we have depth that we should use. When we use it, we can be a thing of beauty. When we go all hero ball, you’ll get results like this. On to the next one.

Also don’t like the poor sportsmanship by K on the handshake to Keats but I guess a convo for another day.

Coach K is not the biggest fan of court storming.

[Music man55]

I really hope we stop coming out flat and uninspired at beginning of games. If coach K doesn't get a handle on this, we won't make it out of the 1st weekend of the ncaa tourney. I hope they can just flush this disaster of a game, and get back to playing like I know they are capable of. Let's go Duke!

[Ultrarunner]

Disappointing to see so many all of a sudden going off the ledge and saying this is a “first weekend team”. Really? From one game, in a place where we historically have stumbled?

When you wake up tomorrow morning this will be the same team that gave us the Carolina Comeback and looked like world beaters against Notre Dame days ago. This is a solid team in a year without an incredible team in the country. All of our goals are still very achievable.

Breathe guys. Breathe.

And drink. And spork if able - which I apparently must spread around some before I can send some your way.

[VA_BDevil]

Anyone know why Jack has fallen out of the rotation the past few games? Tonight he had a couple of minutes in the first half and none in the second. Jack consistently brings rebounding, defense, maturity, and stability to the team.

[weezie]

Anyone know why Jack has fallen out of the rotation the past few games? Tonight he had a couple of minutes in the first half and none in the second. Jack consistently brings rebounding, defense, maturity, and stability to the team.

But no points.

[CameronBlue]

Need a third scorer. SOO many lazy turnovers. Let’s see response v VT

Yes AOC REALLY annoyed me with his lazy pass in the first half near the elbow and Moore had one not long after that was almost as bad. I'm almost as annoyed at K for playing straight up man when the high ball screen was literally KILLING Duke. Daniels' feasted upon that scheme.

[goduke03861]

In a season of mediocrity and awful basketball we're just another team. Nothing wrong with it but is definitely frustrating to get blown out

[Crisker]

Including himself. At the risk of blaspheming, I was thoroughly unimpressed with his management of our performance. Very little in terms of personnel adjustments, no defensive changes (zone? 3/4-court trap?). No TO until 2 min left in the first half to slow momentum? I thought I was watching Ol’ Roy.
My thoughts almost exactly, though I wouldn't go so far as dadgummit.

[CDu]

There were a lot of things that went flukishly wrong (us missing so many FTs; us fumbling the ball so much; them hitting 60% on 3s). If we take those things fluky away, it is a tight game and we don’t resort to trying to hit 10-run HRs in the second half.

That said, I do have one concern moving forward, and that is the defense from our bigs on ball screens. State absolutely torched all of our bigs whenever they could get a guard iso’d on one of our bigs. Carey, Hurt, DeLaurier, didn’t matter who. Now, Markell Johnson I can understand. He is an NBA level talent. But Devon Daniels has no business eating our lunch offensively. We are going to need to figure that out, because I think we will see more of that moving forward.

The loss stinks. If we had won out, we likely get a 1 seed in the NCAAs. Now? That is unlikely, and we also need help to not get stuck as a 2 seed in the ACCs. Bad night all around.

[sagegrouse]

Posted by Sage Grouse this am--

Here's my assessment:

1. At least two of ten players from Duke need to get hot from three territory.
2. Tre and Vernon need to continue to play at a high level.
3. Defense needs to be rock solid.


Are these too much to ask?

Kindly,
Sage
'It's nice having ten players capable of playing really good college hoops'

Lessee... 4-17 from three.
Tre and Vernon were, in fact, solid -- Vernon was outstanding.
State shot 60+ percent from three. Not all defense but still....

I won't name players for playing poorly, but some seemed to show no interest in the game.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Paraphrasing K... they wanted it more, we didn’t play strong, we got our butts beat.

[InSpades]

Disappointing to see so many all of a sudden going off the ledge and saying this is a “first weekend team”. Really? From one game, in a place where we historically have stumbled?

When you wake up tomorrow morning this will be the same team that gave us the Carolina Comeback and looked like world beaters against Notre Dame days ago. This is a solid team in a year without an incredible team in the country. All of our goals are still very achievable.

Breathe guys. Breathe.

The Carolina Comeback makes you think this is a team that is going places? We were down huge to the last place team in the ACC. A team that isn't going to make the NIT.

For a team on a 7-game win streak... we looked not that great.

Duke forced the ball into Carey a bunch (can't say I entirely blame them as he is a beast). Took way too many difficult shots (Tre did not have a good start to the game).

Jones and Carey took 38 of our 69 shots (55%) and 17 of our 22 free throws (77%). Jordan Goldwire took the 3rd most shots at 9 which was almost twice as many as anyone else. Jordan plays with a lot of heart but if he's our 3rd scoring option... we are not going very far. Stanley and Hurt need to step up their games. They've looked great at points this season.

Love this team but... it certainly wouldn't shock me if they lost early w/ the way they play. You can't come out and let teams get a 10 point lead and hope to make a big comeback.

That being said... we always seem to lose a late season game to an ACC team on the bubble. Hope we turn it around and finish the rest of the regular season strong.

[CDu]

Anyone know why Jack has fallen out of the rotation the past few games? Tonight he had a couple of minutes in the first half and none in the second. Jack consistently brings rebounding, defense, maturity, and stability to the team.

Because he doesn’t provide offense, and this team doesn’t have as much dynamic on-ball talent to allow for him to play more.

[bluedev_92]

Yes AOC REALLY annoyed me with his lazy pass in the first half near the elbow and Moore had one not long after that was almost as bad. I'm almost as annoyed at K for playing straight up man when the high ball screen was literally KILLING Duke. Daniels' feasted upon that scheme.

Agree on all counts. At least play underneath the big man screens. Killed us on both drives & rebounds after the switch.

[duke4ever19]

Disappointing to see so many all of a sudden going off the ledge and saying this is a “first weekend team”. Really? From one game, in a place where we historically have stumbled?

When you wake up tomorrow morning this will be the same team that gave us the Carolina Comeback and looked like world beaters against Notre Dame days ago. This is a solid team in a year without an incredible team in the country. All of our goals are still very achievable.

Breathe guys. Breathe.

The Carolina Comeback?

You can buy those in bulk at Costco. Notre Dame grabbed the last off the shelf, but I'll check with 'Ol Roy and see if he has any more in the back.
Plenty of Cheerwine and Sun Drop in the fridge out front too. Glass bottles . . . not that canned stuff.

[Saratoga2]

NCS had a game plan of using their guards to get inside and they were efficient at making their layups. As the game wore on their confidence must have been high as they were making 3 point shots one after another. Funderburke was a load inside and he played with a lot of energy. The State defense was also solid as they protected the rim well. They seemed energized and quick to the ball while we weren't.

For us, Carey played well and went against two solid big players. He did his job as well as anyone could expect. He played 30 minutes, which is about his limit. Unfortunately, DeLauier didn't seem competitive so we sorely missed Carey while he was in. Clearly coach K didn't think much of Jack White's effort and Hurt seemed to be over his head against such an athletic and good sized team. We really had little contribution from big men other than Carey.

Tre had a nice game as well but it must have been exhausting. He gave the team a chance in the second half before seemingly running out of gas. I thought our guards tried to force the ball to Carey, force shots and make poor choice in the passing lanes. Moore plays good defense but he forces the ball and we don't need spinning inside jump shots. Stanley also had issues. Maybe it was just good State defense, but our guards have to find a way to get us better shots. Goldwire also tried to force the ball inside and that is not his game and his outside shot wasn't good tonight.

Joey Baker is a gunner, but when he doesn't hit he has little other value. Alex had some good minutes but he too seemed to telegraph passes and make turnovers. He was only credited with 2, but it seemed like more.

No understanding of why our FT shooting suddenly turned god awful. Do they practice?

[Coballs]

Paraphrasing K... they wanted it more, we didn’t play strong, we got our butts beat.

Link to K's post game presser? It should be a doozy

[BigZ]

No way Duke was going to win at VT and at State .

[azzefkram]

You know, if you're going to get pants'd at least do it during an early game. Cheesy Pete that was dreadful. I'm fairly certain that Duke didn't do a single thing competently the entire game. I'm not even mad. Heck I'm slightly impressed..

I get how people can say this team can lose in the first weekend. I wouldn't be shocked if that happened. I also wouldn't be shocked if Duke won it all.

[rsvman]

No way Duke was going to win at VT and at State .

Possibly true, but we didn't need a 22-point loss.

[knicknut]

The crazy threes from NCSt and in-and-outs from Duke we can put behind us.

The lazy turnovers, the lack of adjustments, and the plays where three NCSt players surrounded the basket for an offensive rebound with no Blue Devils challenging were not.

Hopefully we don't see this team again. In a weak college season like this one, nearly any team is susceptible to these nights, at least.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Someone remind me of when we lost to Georgetown and NCSU and then won the championship, please.

[KandG]

The cliche that may make the rounds is this Duke team isn't as transcendent as the one that beat ND by 34, nor is it as atrocious as the one that got down by as much as 27 to NC State.

Have to say though that while tonight might be somewhat of an outlier (especially with our FT shooting and some of State's overall shooting), this team looked more familiar to me. It's the same team that showed up for big chunks of the BC and UNC games on the road. Getting blitzed early, lots of dumb turnovers on entry passes, bad or non-existent three point shooting, immature or invisible efforts from our young guys.

Now we won the BC and UNC games eventually, and I suppose we could have won this game or made it closer had our FT shooting been even remotely average and a few more bounces gone our way. But one of the supposed advantages of a deep team is if one or two players aren't quite getting it done, someone else steps in and makes plays. It just felt like Tre was trying to do too much on his own when Vernon was being blanketed and most of his teammates couldn't even make a decent pass.

All those high ball screens just killed our guards and Vernon tried, but we gave up way too much penetration. Same thing happened at BC, except they're more turnover prone and we eventually contained them. State tore us apart masterfully and Johnson, Daniels and Funderburk essentially beat us by themselves.

The game was over at the start of the second half when we went down 20, and to that point had one assist and missed 9 of 11 free throws. Bad play by the road team and otherworldly shooting by the home team can always happen, but the other stuff speaks to focus and composure.

I think I'm most disappointed that veterans like Jack and Javin aren't giving us more lately. I was shocked to see Jack enter the game so early, but the game looked too big for him and he left the game contributing nothing beyond a block. My dreams for Javin as a small ball center that can anchor a more potent defensive lineup were dashed yet again, because he looked just as susceptible to the high ball screens and he was beaten to 50-50 balls and rebounds that should be his stock in trade as a backup.

There've been other bad, dispiriting blowouts over the years with teams better than this one, so it's certainly not jump off the ledge time. But there is a lot to figure out right now.

[stingy]

K basically said we weren’t hungry because we had been winning a lot, and they were needing a win so they were really hungry. When those two scenarios meet this is what happens.

[DUKIE V(A)]

Someone remind me of when we lost to Georgetown and NCSU and then won the championship, please.

Two words...”Alarmingly Unathletic”

[stingy]

Also guys carried over bad plays from prior possessions into the next one, trying to make up for something, instead of having amnesia. But this isn’t Xbox, it’s human nature.

[jipops]

After tonight I’m totally convinced we’re a Final Four team.

Grabbing another beer...

[rsvman]

K basically said we weren’t hungry because we had been winning a lot, and they were needing a win so they were really hungry. When those two scenarios meet this is what happens.

Blah blah blah yadda yadda yadda....

[sagegrouse]

Someone remind me of when we lost to Georgetown and NCSU and then won the championship, please.

This seems similar to the loss against Georgetown in DC in front of Obama and Biden.

[Saratoga2]

The Carolina Comeback makes you think this is a team that is going places? We were down huge to the last place team in the ACC. A team that isn't going to make the NIT.

For a team on a 7-game win streak... we looked not that great.

Duke forced the ball into Carey a bunch (can't say I entirely blame them as he is a beast). Took way too many difficult shots (Tre did not have a good start to the game).

Jones and Carey took 38 of our 69 shots (55%) and 17 of our 22 free throws (77%). Jordan Goldwire took the 3rd most shots at 9 which was almost twice as many as anyone else. Jordan plays with a lot of heart but if he's our 3rd scoring option... we are not going very far. Stanley and Hurt need to step up their games. They've looked great at points this season.

Love this team but... it certainly wouldn't shock me if they lost early w/ the way they play. You can't come out and let teams get a 10 point lead and hope to make a big comeback.

That being said... we always seem to lose a late season game to an ACC team on the bubble. Hope we turn it around and finish the rest of the regular season strong.

I agree that we need to find another reliable scoring option on the team. Stanley and Hurt are reasonable options, but neither were that solld tonight. It seems like the team has to work to find quality shots instead of forcing up low probability prayers.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Link to K's post game presser? It should be a doozy
Don’t know. That was just from the locker room interview on the radio.

[UrinalCake]

Have to say though that while tonight might be somewhat of an outlier (especially with our FT shooting and some of State's overall shooting), this team looked more familiar to me.

Very well put. This is the team that lost to SFA, needed a miracle to beat UNC, struggled against BC and GT and even their first exhibition game. Tre becomes our only ball handler, everybody else appears incapable of dribbling. Head-scratching turnovers trying to feed the post by throwing it right to a defender. Lazy defensive switches leading to mismatches, over-helping leading to uncontested offensive rebounds. It’s frustrating to watch some of the same mistakes we’ve seen all season continue to surface.

For all the talk of our “depth” it seems like every game we have multiple players who contribute nothing. Having a rotation in which we randomly substitute players in and out and hope that one of them plays well isn’t going to work. We need an identity.

[uh_no]

Someone remind me of when we lost to Georgetown and NCSU and then won the championship, please.

that georgetown team was significantly better than this NCSU team. Not that I don't agree with the thesis...but the example is not particularly compelling.

[WiJoe]

And remember - no venting or team/player/staff bashing.

Damn Roy.

[camion]

Yep, this was a stinker. I’m hoping we will be able to put it down as our worst game of the season or decade.

[KandG]

For a team on a 7-game win streak... we looked not that great.

Jones and Carey took 38 of our 69 shots (55%) and 17 of our 22 free throws (77%). Jordan Goldwire took the 3rd most shots at 9 which was almost twice as many as anyone else. Jordan plays with a lot of heart but if he's our 3rd scoring option... we are not going very far. Stanley and Hurt need to step up their games. They've looked great at points this season.



There was one offensive sequence in the second half when we were in the midst of our comeback where Tre dribbled around a lot, was swarmed and had no angle to Carey, ended up driving left and throwing a skip pass to Goldwire for a three (which missed badly). This is terrible offense.

It's understandable that role players like our spot up shooters (as well as our freshmen) play better and more confidently at home, but the dynamic between defense heavy lineups, and lineups with better spacing and shooting to give Tre and Vernon some breathing room, still feels like a fraught work in progress for K.

[jipops]

This had to be rather eye popping for any nba scouts that were watching. Markell really abused Tre on a few possessions.

[oakvillebluedevil]

Not great.

But after a bad/borderline inexplicable february loss I'm pretty confident we'll win the Cameron game Mar 2. by 20+ and then win the natty

I'll take the flames now if I get the sporks when I'm right :)

[PackMan97]

9F

Nothing else needs to be said

[Ultrarunner]

9F

Nothing else needs to be said

Well, congrats to the Pack. They earned this one.
But, yeah, 9F applies at all times, too.

[duke2x]

Interesting that Coach K saved his timeouts tonight. Usually uses them to try to lengthen games and get his players rest when making late game runs. Wonder if there is a message in that and another in pulling Tre and Vern at the end (as if to see who else would step up and play hard in the last couple minutes). There is always a method to the madness. He looked pissed tonight.

He does this a lot because it's usually more effective coaching than using the TOs. The only time it irritated me was in the NCAA Tournament against Villanova in 2009.


Disappointing to see so many all of a sudden going off the ledge and saying this is a “first weekend team”. Really? From one game, in a place where we historically have stumbled? When you wake up tomorrow morning this will be the same team that gave us the Carolina Comeback and looked like world beaters against Notre Dame days ago. This is a solid team in a year without an incredible team in the country. All of our goals are still very achievable.

We've been digging ourselves into a big hole to start games a lot: @VT, @GT, @Clemson, Louisville, @BC, @UNC, @NCSU. We had a lead late in the Louisville game, but it really caught up to us tonight.

The numbers on this game look a lot more like a 10 point loss typical of our usual trips over there. And I said not to let Markell Johnson shoot a halfcourt buzzer beater. :eek:

[heyman25]

Wolfpack put a beatdown on Duke. Our playing captains are regressing. After 4 years you would think Jack and Javin would provide some leadership. Passing was so bad and State won almost every 50 50 ball. I agree that Tre keeps saying we can't come out slow and we are down 10-1 in the first 5 minutes.
Anyways one of the worst performances by Duke for the ages.

[Wildling]

This was the same team that beat the wheels off of Notre Dame by 30?

2 observations tonight that drove me up the wall. Lazy pass's and free throws. The carelessness with the basketball was maddening tonight. And for the love of everything that's holy, free throws man! Make your free throws!

[cakerace]

Is it too late to cancel tonight's game over threat of the coronavirus?? It worked for the Tokyo Marathon...

[BD80]

.

Ratfarts.


Coach K shouldn't throw anyone under the bus, but hopefully he doesn't let any of the players ride it home.


They can run behind the bus.

They should push the damn bus.

Next game.

[Mak P]

The hater in me is saying it must be great to treat 1 game at home against a certain team as your championship while we have no days off

The realist in me is saying we did a bad job playing team offense. All I saw was Jones and Carey. Early on they took Carey getting the ball down low away and Duke hasn't responded well when opponents has done that. if we have to pick and roll and let Carey shoot the 3 earlier on so beat it... but in order for that to happen Stanley has to play more than Goldwire. Goldwire is pure struggle from offense and when he does get in the paint he misses layups. I don't get it. FT was very poor

[kako]

Anyone know why Jack has fallen out of the rotation the past few games? Tonight he had a couple of minutes in the first half and none in the second. Jack consistently brings rebounding, defense, maturity, and stability to the team.

I wouldn't say that. Lately his play hasn't been what it sometimes has been, even without scoring. He still plays, but he's near the end of the 10-man rotation. The near absolute lack of scoring puts him behind DeLaurier now, as DeLaurier is bigger and quicker and has been playing better. I'd love to see White make a turnaround, though. His time in a Blue Devil uni is short. If there's a time for him to make a push, it's now.

9F

[kako]

The loss stinks. If we had won out, we likely get a 1 seed in the NCAAs. Now? That is unlikely, and we also need help to not get stuck as a 2 seed in the ACCs. Bad night all around.

Personally, I am hoping for a 2 seed in the East, behind SDSU. I'm rooting for the Aztecs. Would love our chances in the regionals if both teams are in the Elite 8.

9F

[Kedsy]

Well, that was unpleasant. Our worst offensive performance of the season coupled with our worst defensive performance of the season adds up to a 22-point drubbing.

OFFENSE

Possessions: 76.2 (reasonably fast, but should have been in our wheelhouse)
oRtg: 0.87 (0.92 adjusted; just awful, as I said above our worst offense of the season)
eFG%: 40.6% (also awful; 3rd worst eFG of the season)
3pt%: 23.5% (bad)
2pt%: 42.3% (rotten)
%threes: 24.6% (not a lot of threes, but we couldn't hit them anyway)
FT rate: 31.9% (not bad)
OR%: 30.8% (not good but not too terrible)
TO%: 17.1% (not great but acceptable; whoever said if we had under 15 TOs we'd be OK was wrong)
a/to: 0.46:1 (dreadful)
%assisted: 23.1% (ditto)
fast break pts: 25 (37.9% of points; actually our best fb performance of the season)

DEFENSE

dRtg: 1.16 (1.08 adjusted; that's fairly putrid, as I said above our worst defense of the season)
eFG%: 50.7% (not good)
3pt%: 61.5% (appalling; worst opposing 3pt% of the season, by far)
2pt%: 41.4% (actually pretty good)
%threes: 18.3% (very good; 17th time in 26 games that an opponent has taken fewer than 30% of their shots from three)
FT rate: 29.6% (not good, but not awful)
DR%: 64.3% (bad but not bad enough to explain the final score)
TO%: 13.1% (2nd worst defensive TO performance of the season)
a/to: 1:1 (not bad)
%assisted: 31.3% (pretty good)
stl%: 5.2% (blech)
blk%: 7.0% (8.6% of 2pt shots) (somewhat pedestrian)
fast break pts: 21 (23.9% of points; pretty bad)


Our shooting just plain stunk and the rest of our offensive four factors while not dreadful weren't good enough to make up for that. On defense, other than opposing 3pt% and our lack of defensive turnovers, the individual numbers don't look catastrophic but obviously they were, since we gave up an unforgivable 1.16 ppp.

I know it's an overused term around here, but "next play" is about all you can say about this game.

[RollDevils]

We looked like a collective team that had no desire to be playing basketball tonight from the jump. Then when it was clear that State came to play their best game of the season, we packed up and went home...at least mentally. Yeah, we made a brief run in the second half but even that felt half-hearted. It was like "yeah, we could do this, but just dont really feel like it today".

[Dukehk]

We have struggled on the road all year. Same issues remain.

"Young" team needs to grow up quickly as March is fast approaching.

I believe 1 seed is now unattainable unless the other teams collapse (i.e. SDSU). Still, getting a 2 seed in the east is a good path to the final four!

[ncexnyc]

Having just watched several You Tube clips of tonight's debate I'm now kicking myself for sticking with the game.

[Kedsy]

NCS had a game plan of using their guards to get inside and they were efficient at making their layups.

I"m sorry, but this is the opposite of the truth. NCSU made 11 layups/dunks and missed 16, for a percentage of 40.7%. That's about as inefficient as a high-major program can get (for comparison's sake, State has averaged 62.3% at the rim for the season).

For the same reason, I disagree with those who say the PNR killed us, because State was very inefficient at the rim.

And for those who keep harping on the turnovers, admittedly there were a couple egregious ones but for the game we only turned it over 13 times. As a percentage of possessions, this was our 13th best offensive turnover performance out of 26 games, and as a total we average 13.5 turnovers per game. In other words, we turned it over in this game about the same (possibly a little better) than our season average.


We'll be lucky to make it out of the first weekend.

It wouldn't be DBR if we didn't get posts like this after a bad loss.

[TruBlu]

I could not watch the game live last night, since I had to get up early this morning, so I DVR’ed it. After reading the recap and post game thread, I will not watch the replay. My honorary MOTM is the delete function on my DVR.

[lotusland]

That was weird. Shook my head and went to bed right after the half court heave. Glad to to see we only lost the second half by 7.

[DevilYouKnow]

NC State threw up lots of garbage that rimmed far out. Every busted play went their way. They deserved the win regardless, but it was painful nevertheless.

Here’s a tip: mute Seth Greenberg if Duke is losing. Maybe if Duke is winning, too!

[kshepinthehouse]

If not for a late 3 by Goldwire, our 3rd leading scorer for this particular game would have had 4 points. I can’t recall another game in which our 3rd leading scorer for the game had such a low total. Putrid offense tonight for sure.

[wavedukefan70s]

If not for a late 3 by Goldwire, our 3rd leading scorer for this particular game would have had 4 points. I can’t recall another game in which our 3rd leading scorer for the game had such a low total. Putrid offense tonight for sure.

Exactly what stuck out to me. Tj and vc. then noone else scored meaningful points.

[Channel Swimmer]

Also don’t like the poor sportsmanship by K on the handshake to Keats but I guess a convo for another day.

You might be right but if your comment is based on the tv shot of the handshake that I saw, they cut to it quite quickly. it's very possible that K gave him some nice congratulations and all we saw was the handshake at the end.

[dukelifer]

This team can be so frustrating at times. This is a young team and they played that way. All season they have weathered bad starts but not last night. Hard to explain what happened except Duke did not have it and State got some great performances. Maybe State is better than their record but I doubt it. Duke gets them again in a 2 weeks so we will see what was learned tonight. Team was humbled. This is a tough part of the season. Teams are fighting for their playoff lives or trying to get a win to salvage a bad season. Duke has some very tough games ahead. It could make or break them. This team has over achieved and now it is big boy basketball time.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Everything about this game was an outlier.

Our inability to make a FT, let alone a layup.

NC State’s insane 3-point shooting, despite being statistically bad from there on the season.

Seemingly every bounce going their way. That darn half court shot before the half. I could go on.

Good news is, historically Duke has done some pretty nice things in seasons we’ve lost in Raleigh. This year, all of our goals are still obtainable. Yes, we need a bit more help for a No. 1 seed, but we were always going to need SOME help. But we still have a great path to raise banners in the conference.

Let’s treat this like the outlier it is, move on, and go win the ACC.

It was an outlier, but not really an outlier for our games in that building.....be it State, or Mercer. Our house of horrors.


I could feel K's icy handshake to Keatts from my living room.

Kinda felt that too....what's up with that?

[arnie]

Nothing to add except Pack wanted it and needed it more than Duke. Now watch them lay another egg in Chapel Hell next week. Hope we can split with the Pack this year.

[Devilwin]

Can't figure this bunch out. One day they are Golden State, next day they are Little Sisters of the Poor. Bad ft shooting and ridiculous turn overs doomed them. Don't know how many times they all but just handed the Pack players the ball..Pitiful effort.:confused:

[DUKIE V(A)]

This team can be so frustrating at times. This is a young team and they played that way. All season they have weathered bad starts but not last night. Hard to explain what happened except Duke did not have it and State got some great performances. Maybe State is better than their record but I doubt it. Duke gets them again in a 2 weeks so we will see what was learned tonight. Team was humbled. This is a tough part of the season. Teams are fighting for their playoff lives or trying to get a win to salvage a bad season. Duke has some very tough games ahead. It could make or break them. This team has over achieved and now it is big boy basketball time.

NC State is very talented but play a poor brand of basketball relative to their talent. They are sloppy, make poor decisions with the ball, fail to do the little things on either end of the floor, and tend to play hero ball on offense. Kind of like us last night. I will be interested to see whether they are able to duplicate last night’s performance down the stretch.

As for Duke, I still love our chances to win the ACC Regular Season outright. FSU and Louisville have tougher schedules to conclude the season than we do. Gaining the 1 Seed in the ACC Tournament will be huge. I am also not one to quite yet write off a 1 Seed in the NCAA tournament. It won’t be easy but will likely require sweeping the rest of our games throughout the regular season, winning the ACC Tournament, and having a couple teams falter. I believe the ACC is a lot stronger this year than many experts give it credit. What makes the Big Ten so great? Lots of many loss teams in that conference as well. Duke is significantly more battle tested than the likes of Gonzaga, SDSU, and Dayton. To rank Dayton ahead of Duke is an absolute joke IMHO. They are good but not better than Duke on any planet.

[moonpie23]

Benching Jah would have had no effect on how state, or we were playing.........our guys (and coaches for some reason) were just flat. And slow. State was desperate.


Next game!

[Rmarkste]

This game was over in first four minutes. IMHO, our only player that has truly improved this entire season was Goldwire but he had subpar game. Our only statistic that has improved over the season was free throw shooting of late but last night was putrid regression.

Our good defensive players (Goldwire, Tre, and Moore) still cannot shoot but have you noticed how good a shooter Tre can be when he is moving forward to the three point. He truly had great percentage on such shots. I wish I could see the stats on that. He is such a better shooter on the move. Same in the paint for midrange jumpers when moving forward.

Our better three point shooters cannot play defense but a least the stats for Baker and Hurt show potential but AOC is not a good shooter 27% from three.

Our experienced players aren’t doing much lately in their limited minutes but I view this a positive, hoping that Moore, Stanley, Hurt and Baker will play more since they have much higher ceilings.

Moore isn’t as talented as Reddish but his season is easily similar to Reddish. Our of sync in every game with one great buzzer beater game.

I won’t let this game get me down. I am pulling for a number 2 seed in the NCAA tournament (we don’t want to be #1 seed in the year where no one holds onto #1 ranking). Hoping to be in the East region with SD State as the #1. Getting to play in MSG in next rounds will be good path to advance beyond Sweet 16 to Final Four. I see this path to win it all. We just need Kansas to lose in Final Four before they play us (we won’t beat them twice). This season can mirror 2015 just like we got Kentucky to lose to Wisconsin and Tre Stones can win like his brother to carry us to another title. Can’t you see it!!

[Duke76]

I"m sorry, but this is the opposite of the truth. NCSU made 11 layups/dunks and missed 16, for a percentage of 40.7%. That's about as inefficient as a high-major program can get (for comparison's sake, State has averaged 62.3% at the rim for the season).

For the same reason, I disagree with those who say the PNR killed us, because State was very inefficient at the rim.

And for those who keep harping on the turnovers, admittedly there were a couple egregious ones but for the game we only turned it over 13 times. As a percentage of possessions, this was our 13th best offensive turnover performance out of 26 games, and as a total we average 13.5 turnovers per game. In other words, we turned it over in this game about the same (possibly a little better) than our season average.



It wouldn't be DBR if we didn't get posts like this after a bad loss.

This may have been mentioned upstream, but it seems during the season Coach K lets them try to figure it out for themselves. Obviously, they didn't last night and to me it revolved around communication. They didn't communicate with each other and for whatever message he was trying to send to his team, he was not his usual communicative self from the sidelines while the game was being played. During timeouts, this would have been a great time to be in the huddle to hear his message.

[OldPhiKap]

Good game, State. Congrats!

Next play.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

I get the sense from K’s presser that he saw this coming almost immediately after the game started and that, while he certainly wanted and tried to win, he was also accepting of the fact that we had no shot and felt he could use this arse whipping as a wake-up call/teaching moment. We’ll see.

[Saratoga2]

Paraphrasing K... they wanted it more, we didn’t play strong, we got our butts beat.

I am not a believer in wanting it more. Too vague and often obscures the root cause of the problem(s) that were evident during the game.

[Acymetric]

Is that potentially a historic flip from massive blowout to getting massively blown out?

[bundabergdevil]

Is that potentially a historic flip from massive blowout to getting massively blown out?

Sometimes we make our own Kool-Aid and drink it, too.

[CDu]

I"m sorry, but this is the opposite of the truth. NCSU made 11 layups/dunks and missed 16, for a percentage of 40.7%. That's about as inefficient as a high-major program can get (for comparison's sake, State has averaged 62.3% at the rim for the season).

For the same reason, I disagree with those who say the PNR killed us, because State was very inefficient at the rim.

I disagree, on several counts:
1. Looking only at total layups taken has little link to shots off PNR.
2. It also ignores fouls drawn off PNR.
3. It also omits the second-chance points created by the defensive breakdown leaving us out of position for rebounds (part of why a mediocre OReb team thrived on the offensive glass against us).
4. It wasn’t just the success rate on layups off PNR, it was how easy the looks they were getting.
5. It wasn’t just rolls off the high ball screens. They also torched our bigs on jumpers when they got iso’d off those picks.


And for those who keep harping on the turnovers, admittedly there were a couple egregious ones but for the game we only turned it over 13 times. As a percentage of possessions, this was our 13th best offensive turnover performance out of 26 games, and as a total we average 13.5 turnovers per game. In other words, we turned it over in this game about the same (possibly a little better) than our season average.

The problem was that they were largely unforced. This State team doesn’t sell out to force turnovers. So most of those turnovers were just lack of poise

[weezie]

I am not a believer in wanting it more. Too vague and often obscures the root cause of the problem(s) that were evident during the game.

Amen to this. Last night we saw the return of the freshmen. Bigger, stronger wolvies had their way with us. Our guards were bouncing off the picks. Duke couldn't stop long enough to gather their thoughts much less press the entire game.

A few minutes of zone might have slowed state down a bit. Less press might have made them consider their shots a second longer and wobbled them more.

We sure stood around a lot on offense too, watching the "NOT" plays develop.

Ah well, I'm hoping this is similar to the hoo game in what, 1991?

[jv001]

Some things Coach K commented on after the game:
NC State played great and Duke was not competitive. He said we had won 22 games with 12 conference wins and last night we were not hungry. State was because like many ACC teams they needed a win. He said obviously we didn't think we needed the win. He said last night State was an elite team and their fans were great but the State players made the crowd great. He also said it was our worst game and State didn't take us out of the game because we were never in it.

Coach K gave the Wolfpack lots of credit but he was very disappointed in his team.

My thoughts. This team scares me because this is not the first time they have come out flat. Most of the time they have recovered but a few times they have not. In tournament games, this could be deadly. No team is going to feel sorry for Duke University. On the contrary, they want to be the team that knocks the big bad Dukies out of the tournament. It seems we have one good ball handler in Tre. Tre is the only consistent creator on offense. Moore tries to be but his handle is suspect and his decision making is not very good. We only had 13 turnovers last night but that wasn't the whole story because some of the bad passes were not turnovers but led to a bad shot or deflection that where we retained possession. But of the 13 turnovers, most were just stupid passes or loss of the ball that were not caused by the defense. Alex, Cassius, Wendell and Jordan looked to be in another world last night. I'm anxious to see how the team responds to this beat down. Not so much against VT but at Wake and at the HOOS. Those two road games will give us a good idea of how we respond. I'm pretty sure the coaching staff will be in the guys faces the next couple of days.

GoDuke!

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Amen to this. Last night we saw the return of the freshmen. Bigger, stronger wolvies had their way with us. Our guards were bouncing off the picks. Duke couldn't stop long enough to gather their thoughts much less press the entire game.

A few minutes of zone might have slowed state down a bit. Less press might have made them consider their shots a second longer and wobbled them more.

We sure stood around a lot on offense too, watching the "NOT" plays develop.

Ah well, I'm hoping this is similar to the hoo game in what, 1991?

Uh, I think that the concepts in bold are in fact directly related to "wanting it more" or not.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I am not a believer in wanting it more. Too vague and often obscures the root cause of the problem(s) that were evident during the game.

I am a huge believer in wanting it more. The difference in the size, speed and strength among all P5 athletes is relatively little......more or less motivation absolutely makes a huge difference. If this were not the case, you would almost never see upsets or wildly inconsistent results. Wanting it more, intensity, hustle, etc are all related concepts.

[Saratoga2]

I disagree, on several counts:
1. Looking only at total layups taken has little link to shots off PNR.
2. It also ignores fouls drawn off PNR.
3. It also omits the second-chance points created by the defensive breakdown leaving us out of position for rebounds (part of why a mediocre OReb team thrived on the offensive glass against us).
4. It wasn’t just the success rate on layups off PNR, it was how easy the looks they were getting.
5. It wasn’t just rolls off the high ball screens. They also torched our bigs on jumpers when they got iso’d off those picks.

I tend to agree. Teams that have spread the floor and have quality guards have used the PNR to get into our interior defense and our bigs have been unable to stop shots without fouling a lot. We don't pack our defense in, perhaps in an effort to slow down the three point shooting. That didn't work so well either. We made no adjustments other than personnel changes last night. We have had problems all year with teams that play us the way NCst did last night.

The problem was that they were largely unforced. This State team doesn’t sell out to force turnovers. So most of those turnovers were just lack of poise

While the number of TO's weren't ultra high, so many of them were careless passes. It wasn't confined to one player but seemed to apply to AOC, Stanley, Moore and others. State is quick and played the passing lanes and also we seemed to have an edict to get the ball into Vernon and by golly we tried to make passes that weren't there.

Our offense was either Tre going one on one or Vernon getting the ball inside. Bothgot tired. Tre's needs to invollve others in the scoring as we need more balance. It has got to come from coach K to make that happen. I know the guys didn't shoot well but we have to try to get them involved. Stnaley, Hurt, AOC and perhaps Moore need more involvement. Hurt seems a defensive liability and Moore is sound defensively but kind of raw offensive player so we have to expect the involved players will make mistakes, but we do need to stay with them.

As far as FT shooting, was it the crowd that bothered us or did we not practice FT shooting. Hard to imagine such a bad performance.

[jv001]

I am a huge believer in wanting it more. The difference in the size, speed and strength among all P5 athletes is relatively little...more or less motivation absolutely makes a huge difference. If this were not the case, you would almost never see upsets or wildly inconsistent results. Wanting it more, intensity, hustle, etc are all related concepts.

It sounded like Coach K thinks the same way in his post game comments. Not hungry, State needed the win and the Duke players obviously didn't. Of course wanting it more is a real thing. Look at the hustle plays of former Duke players; Winslow, Singler, & Grayson. the ice water in your veins of one Christian Laettner, Shane, Hurley, Jason Williams. I think Coach K is waiting to see who wants it more from this team.

GoDuke!

[sagegrouse]

If not for a late 3 by Goldwire, our 3rd leading scorer for this particular game would have had 4 points. I can’t recall another game in which our 3rd leading scorer for the game had such a low total. Putrid offense tonight for sure.

No one wanted the ball except Tre and Vernon. Well, Wendell did -- but he had a string of awful possessions that more than offset his rebounds. I am not sure why several even got on the bus to Raleigh. We may see some changes in the lineup.

[WakeDevil]

Is that potentially a historic flip from massive blowout to getting massively blown out?

I am assigning this project to you. Report due on Saturday.

[DukieInBrasil]

that was embarrassing. Good for the wolfies, they may have salvaged their season, although they still have several more games they have to win to make the Dance.
This Duke team still hasn't figured how to show up every game. The pre-game interview that Cassius and Tre gave with them talking about showing up right from the whistle and playing tough turned out to be the opposite of what actually happened. Daniels and Johnson just abused the whole team, but especially the guards.
After the tantalizing display Duke got from Matthew Hurt the past couple of games, he was incapable of providing much of value vs the Pack. Well, honestly, the only guy who provided much value was Vernon.
On to the next one...

[Acymetric]

No one wanted the ball except Tre and Vernon. Well, Wendell did -- but he had a string of awful possessions that more than offset his rebounds. I am not sure why several even got on the bus to Raleigh. We may see some changes in the lineup.

Speaking of Tre, can someone please get him to stop those rushed pull-up 3's when bringing the ball up the court? I think he's made like one of those, ever. Feels like it happens at least once or twice a game, not a good shot. I've been complaining about it since he did it 3-4 times against unc.

[DukeDevilDeb]

Someone remind me of when we lost to Georgetown and NCSU and then won the championship, please.

And also the year we lost to State and Miami in a row and won a championship. I'm distressed at the fact that no one except Carey and Jones scored more that 4 points. I know the box score says that Jordan scored 7, but 3 of those came on a meaningless shot at the end of the game. I didn't see a single alley-oop. I didn't see a pass inside and then back out again for a 3.

And our defense... oh my God... nothing you can do about the half-court shot right before half time. But honestly, if we were playing our usual defensive game, we would have winced at that shot and gone on. We couldn't stop anyone. We finally get 3 fouls on their shot blocker, he goes out, we don't try any shots to block.

Carey: 27
Jones: 17


Goldwire: 7

Rest of the team combined: 15!

Carey outscored the combined totals of everyone on the team not named Jones. Really? Did anyone see the bench? They looked like they were napping.

Sigh. Next game. Move on.

[CDu]

Speaking of Tre, can someone please get him to stop those rushed pull-up 3's when bringing the ball up the court? I think he's made like one of those, ever. Feels like it happens at least once or twice a game, not a good shot. I've been complaining about it since he did it 3-4 times against unc.

To be fair, he did hit two of those last night. Not saying that it is a good shot to take. But it's not like he hits an unreasonably low percentage of them.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

It sounded like Coach K thinks the same way in his post game comments. Not hungry, State needed the win and the Duke players obviously didn't. Of course wanting it more is a real thing. Look at the hustle plays of former Duke players; Winslow, Singler, & Grayson. the ice water in your veins of one Christian Laettner, Shane, Hurley, Jason Williams. I think Coach K is waiting to see who wants it more from this team.

GoDuke!

What you said in bold....is, or should be, patently obvious. Athletes don't run the identical speed, jump the identical height, have the identical strength, every single game. They don't process with identical mental sharpness game to game either. There are good games and bad games, good days and bad days...and motivation, intensity, ie, WANT TO is probably the biggest factor there. Other factors include biorhythms, rest, feeling a little sick or not, etc.....but "want to" is way up the list.

[Acymetric]

I didn't see a single alley-oop

There was at least one oop from Tre to Carey.

[BD80]

I am not a believer in wanting it more. Too vague and often obscures the root cause of the problem(s) that were evident during the game.


I am a huge believer in wanting it more. The difference in the size, speed and strength among all P5 athletes is relatively little...more or less motivation absolutely makes a huge difference. If this were not the case, you would almost never see upsets or wildly inconsistent results. Wanting it more, intensity, hustle, etc are all related concepts.

Rocket: Question. What if I see something that I wanna take and it belongs to someone else?
Rhomann Dey: Then you will be arrested.
Rocket: But what if I want it more than the person who has it?
Rhomann Dey: Still illegal.
Rocket: That doesn't follow. No, I want it more, sir. Do you understand me?

[MCFinARL]

I get the sense from K’s presser that he saw this coming almost immediately after the game started and that, while he certainly wanted and tried to win, he was also accepting of the fact that we had no shot and felt he could use this arse whipping as a wake-up call/teaching moment. We’ll see.

Yes, I thought this just from watching him on the bench. He had that look he sometimes gets where he is more resigned than angry.


I am not a believer in wanting it more. Too vague and often obscures the root cause of the problem(s) that were evident during the game.

I agree that saying a team "wanted it more" suggests some kind of psychological deficiency or entitlement in the other team that is seldom accurate or fair--but if you translate "wanting it more" in physical terms--as "being focused and energetic"--I think there is some truth to it for this game. Duke came out less focused, they were outrebounded, they had fewer steals, and--by eyeball test--they got beaten to a lot of loose balls.

[dukelifer]

What you said in bold...is, or should be, patently obvious. Athletes don't run the identical speed, jump the identical height, have the identical strength, every single game. They don't process with identical mental sharpness game to game either. There are good games and bad games, good days and bad days...and motivation, intensity, ie, WANT TO is probably the biggest factor there. Other factors include biorhythms, rest, feeling a little sick or not, etc...but "want to" is way up the list.

The other part is that State has older players - players who have been in a lot of battles together. Duke might have two slightly better players - Tre and Vernon but after that the Duke guys are not as experienced or markedly better at this stage. What is surprising is that this blowout loss came so late in the season. But State needed this. So wanting it much more is a big component. Duke will need to play hungrier and better if they want to make a run. This was a wake up call. We will see if they respond. Still proud of this team- I expected a few more blowouts but until last night they showed an ability to fight back.

[flyingdutchdevil]

1 very close win against a rival, 1 close win against a ranked team, 1 blowout win against a decent team...

I believe this Duke team thought they were invincible. A loss like this could be very good for the ego moving forward, although it likely comes at a cost.

[TNTDevil]

Disappointing to see so many all of a sudden going off the ledge and saying this is a “first weekend team”. Really? From one game, in a place where we historically have stumbled?

When you wake up tomorrow morning this will be the same team that gave us the Carolina Comeback and looked like world beaters against Notre Dame days ago. This is a solid team in a year without an incredible team in the country. All of our goals are still very achievable.

Breathe guys. Breathe.
Can't spork you so, I'll thank you here for this post.

Everybody is so critical of everything Duke MBB just because we got beat by a team that was able to play, quite simply, out of their minds. The truth(s) (as I see them) are:

Tonight, the Pack had "it" and Duke didn't. No combination of substitution(s), time-outs or, coach's scolding was going to change that fact.
The Pack hit every crazy/bad shot they took while we couldn't hit a <bleeping> shot at the rim.
Duke is still a very good team with a legit shot at a great post-season.
State (sadly) will return to being a mediocre team.

This game had all the ingredients of a Duke loss- a focused opponent, a player (or players) playing far above their level and, a Duke team that was flat.

One thing I can't figure...why would State fan storm the court instead of standing up and shouting, loudly and repeatedly "Where the #$%^ has this been the rest of the season?"

[azzefkram]

Is it me, or does Tre's D seem to be a tad on the leaky side recently? I know the numbers have Duke as a top 10 D but it seems like any team with a touch of athleticism can get whatever they want on offense. I would think that Tre, JGold, Cas, Wendell and Vernon would be a pretty good defensive unit.

[wsb3]

22-4 12-3 Conference

If you would have asked me if I would take these numbers back in October. I would have said, Yes. I still really like this team. They have good but not great players and they have to bring it each night and last night they did not bring it. And didn't we all know that the Pack would play out of their minds?

Next play.

I wish you would step back
From that ledge my friend :)

[Reddevil]

I was hoping this would not happen, but here is my take:

Duke drilled Wake 90-59 then lost the next two against Clemson and L'ville.

Duke drilled ND 94-60 then lost to State.

To me this is young team syndrome. They remember how easy it seemed at the end of those blowouts instead of how hard they played in the beginning to reach the coasting point.

They are obviously being coached to come out aggressively and they are saying the right things, but some lessons have to be learned the hard way. Youth always thinks they can turn it on when they need to, and they do not realize it doesn't work that way.

This is were upperclassmen need to take a stand, but even they were just sitting there looking bewildered. K has seen this before so I hope he can fire them up appropriately. It is tough on us fans because they are capable of playing so darned well.

Congrats to State. They won the intensity battle and therefore the game. Hopefully it is a lesson learned. Next play.

[devildeac]

Considering taking NCSU +30 for this weekend offered by someone in chat last PM. You know who you are...

:D

[kAzE]

Disappointing to see so many all of a sudden going off the ledge and saying this is a “first weekend team”. Really? From one game, in a place where we historically have stumbled?

When you wake up tomorrow morning this will be the same team that gave us the Carolina Comeback and looked like world beaters against Notre Dame days ago. This is a solid team in a year without an incredible team in the country. All of our goals are still very achievable.

Breathe guys. Breathe.

I'm not sure I'd use the Carolina comeback as a reason for optimism. We played terribly that game and should have lost. If either UNC or Florida St. had hit their normal percentage from the free throw line, we would have lost those games.

This Duke team is just not that good on the road. Since the January 4 game at Miami, we have failed to defeat a team on their home court by more than single digits, even lowly Boston College.

Certainly, I don't believe Duke is a first weekend team, but does any of this make me think we are national title contenders right now? Not really. Losing by 20+ isn't something that inspires confidence.

We need to see how the team responds from this, but I honestly cannot remember the last time we got beat by 20. That was embarrassing.

[devilirium]

Is it me, or does Tre's D seem to be a tad on the leaky side recently? I know the numbers have Duke as a top 10 D but it seems like any team with a touch of athleticism can get whatever they want on offense. I would think that Tre, JGold, Cas, Wendell and Vernon would be a pretty good defensive unit.

I know what you're driving at (and have seen it) , but I didn't really see that from Tre last nite. He fought over every screen, but the help defense just wasn't there on the contain and the defensive rebounding was pretty atrocious at the conclusion of the possession.

[KandG]

Disappointing to see so many all of a sudden going off the ledge and saying this is a “first weekend team”. Really? From one game, in a place where we historically have stumbled?


"First weekend team" is a pejorative that has a particular sting for Duke over the years and is obviously the go-to around these parts when our team underachieves in a game as badly as they did last night. Clearly this team is good enough to recover and can go far.

However, this is one year that "first weekend team" doesn't feel like an insult to me. Last year's team very nearly lost in the first weekend, and that would have been a massive embarrassment given its talent level and the quality of their opponent (even if we can acknowledge UCF played at another level). But the weaknesses and youth of this particular Duke team means a bad matchup against even a lower-rung team with experience and good coaching can result in a loss. We've seen the signs frequently even in the middle of a seven game winning streak.

(Also, as others have pointed out, many of our best performances since conference play started have been at home by an order of magnitude, which befits a young team. Our tournament games will almost always feel like road games, especially if we maintain our pattern of slow starts).

I would be very disappointed if this group loses early in the tournament because I like them a lot and we always have high expectations of Duke (as we should). But as analytically inclined as I am (the numbers still reflect that Duke has been an excellent team all season), this is such an odd year that the numbers don't hold sway for me the way they have in the past. Barring a jump in level of play and consistency from one or more players outside of Tre and Vernon, a bad matchup or seeding in an unfavorable region can easily mean an early exit.

[CDu]

I'm not sure I'd use the Carolina comeback as a reason for optimism. We played terribly that game and should have lost. If either UNC or Florida St. had hit their normal percentage from the free throw line, we would have lost those games.

This Duke team is just not that good on the road. Since the January 4 game at Miami, we have failed to defeat a team on their home court by more than single digits, even lowly Boston College.

Certainly, I don't believe Duke is a first weekend team, but does any of this make me think we are national title contenders right now? Not really. Losing by 20+ isn't something that inspires confidence.

I agree. While we did woodshed Notre Dame last week, it's worth noting that that Notre Dame team is REALLY limited. The one thing they do well (shoot 3s) is the thing we're most adept at limiting, and they don't have playmakers to break down a defense. That was one of the easier reads of the season: it just came down to whether we shot well/poorly and whether they could make the 3s they got.

The UNC and FSU games, for all intents and purposes, should have been losses. UNC controlled the game but completely blew it at the line, and FSU was uncharacteristically awful from 3 and bad from the FT line. While we had won a lot of games since Louisville, we hadn't exactly looked good doing it. That's not to take anything away from winning those games. Our guys didn't give up against UNC, and capitalized when UNC choked. And we played with real grit to hang on against FSU while tired, taking advantage of their poor shooting. If that FSU game is not in Cameron, we probably lose it.

I also don't think this is a first-weekend-loss caliber team, although it is certainly possible. I also don't think THAT many folks are suddenly saying we are. I think that's a bit of an exaggeration to the overreaction by a couple of posters. But I certainly don't feel as good right now as I did prior to the calendar turning 2020.

Hopefully they can figure out the ball screen defense. In rewatching the game I was surprised at just how pervasive it was in their gameplan last night. They ran it on the VAST majority of their halfcourt sets, and it was easily their most effective plan in the halfcourt. We had very little answer for Johnson and Daniels whenever they got the screen and could attack Carey or DeLaurier. Whenever they tried throwing it into the post or just running conventional attacks (small on small) from the perimeter, we won those matchups pretty consistently. But their half-court offensive success was driven almost exclusively by running (and re-running if necessary) those high ball screens until they could get an iso on a big.

Now, I do think that the actual degree of loss is somewhat fluky. They shot ~7-8 points better on 3s than they should have (when you factor in their expected hit rate and factor out offensive rebounds of missed 3s), and we gave away about 5 points at the FT line. So if those things play to average, we're in a tight game (perhaps even winning if it means we stop taking hero-ball shots trying to HR our way back into the game). Especially if we cut out some of the brutal unforced turnovers that led to transition points.

But still, the half-court defense, which has been a strength most of the year, looked beatable last night. And it did so because of our inability to handle the high ball screens. So hopefully we can figure that out, and soon.

[devildeac]

Office mate, NCSU fan, just stopped in to pat me on shoulder and console me briefly about the game. His main take-away: "Looks like your guys weren't interested in being there and playing hoops last PM." He also agreed with my prognostication that the Pack will look like a high school team this weekend and will likely roll over for the cheats again.

Grrr...

[Kedsy]

We need to see how the team responds from this, but I honestly cannot remember the last time we got beat by 20.

The last time was 2013, a year we made the Elite Eight. It happened twice that season - a 27-point drubbing by Miami, and a 22-point loss to Louisville in the NCAAT.


I disagree, on several counts:
1. Looking only at total layups taken has little link to shots off PNR.
2. It also ignores fouls drawn off PNR.
3. It also omits the second-chance points created by the defensive breakdown leaving us out of position for rebounds (part of why a mediocre OReb team thrived on the offensive glass against us).
4. It wasn’t just the success rate on layups off PNR, it was how easy the looks they were getting.
5. It wasn’t just rolls off the high ball screens. They also torched our bigs on jumpers when they got iso’d off those picks.


I'm not going to re-watch the game to see exactly what happened on State's PNRs. But for the game, in addition to shooting 40.7% on layups, State shot 41.9% on two-point jumpers, which to me doesn't scream "easy looks" or "torched our bigs on jumpers." As for their threes, only three of them were assisted and one of those (by Funderburk) was not a PNR. Not sure if the other two assisted threes were on PNR or not.

To me, our defensive problems were not turning them over and them hitting an unnatural percentage from three. We may not have done great on PNRs, but I just don't think that was the major problem.


Look at the hustle plays of former Duke players; Winslow, Singler, & Grayson. the ice water in your veins of one Christian Laettner, Shane, Hurley, Jason Williams.

Kyle Singler started and played 24 minutes in a game Duke lost 74-47. Justise Winslow started and played 27 minutes in a game we lost by 16 at home. Grayson Allen started and played 38 minutes in a 14-point loss at Pitt, started and played 26 minutes in a 16-point loss at FSU, and played 17 minutes in the second half against South Carolina when we lost the half by 14. Jason Williams lost by double-digits three times to Maryland (and almost twice more). Shane Battier participated in two of those double-digit beatings (and both the "almosts"). Christian Laettner lost by 20 at home to UNC in 1989, and he and Bobby Hurley both lost by 17 at Virginia and 22 to UNC (in a year we won the national championship), not to mention losing by 30 to UNLV in 1990.

Sometimes you just get beat.

[Highlander]

Duke effectively has two reliable offensive weapons:
- Dump it down low to Carey
- Let Jones drive and create something out of nothing.

That's it.

Now don't get me wrong, both of those are above average options. But they are not terribly difficult to defend against if you have a couple of capable bigs, especially when the rest of our team just stands around the perimeter and watches Jones/Carey operate and try to get open. There's very little motion from our wings. And everyone not named Tre is not adept at making entry passes to Carey.

On defense, teams are attacking our m2m by spreading us out, setting a high ball screen, and then driving on our bigs. Lather, rinse, repeat. We haven't shown an ability to stop that with any consistency. And as good as Carey has been on offense, he routinely gets beat on this set. DeLaurier is better, but what he makes up for on Defense is offset by the loss of a major offensive option and a dip in rebounding. I don't know why Carey never hedges on that screen, but he's obviously being coached not to. I remember Bolden was excellent at that last year and it disrupted the timing of the guard coming off the pick.

State certainly played above average for them, especially from the perimeter. Even so, they had at least 5-6 shots that didn't even draw iron. That being said, Duke somehow managed to play worse. We were absolutely awful in almost every facet of the game. Waaay too many unforced errors due to sloppy play. I recall one series in the first half where Duke committed 3 straight turnovers without even attempting a shot - a double dribble, a pass out of bounds, and a lazy entry pass. K finally called a timeout. We made a nice run to put the game into reach, and then reverted back to the norm with 4-5 empty possessions in a row. That we only cut it to 12-14 points is a testament to the size of the hole we dug.

As noted above, Jordan Goldwire was our third leading scorer and third option on offense (based on # of shots). I love what Jordan has brought to the team this year on both sides of the ball, but he should never be the third option on offense, and shouldn't be the fourth option unless we're playing Javin and Jack at the same time. We need a third option on offense, and logically that should probably be Stanley, Moore, or Hurt. All 3 were invisible last night. Duke simply isn't good enough to win with only two reliable scorers.

@Ray_Holloman on Twitter said it best: "On a team defined by depth, there was none. On a team defined by defense, no one could stop a drive. On a team that was angling for a one seed, there was a compete level of an exhibition. Just as bad a game as Duke has ever played."

[Steven43]

Coach K shouldn't throw anyone under the bus, but hopefully he doesn't let any of the players ride it home.

Ha, that’s funny 😆.

Seriously, though, do you not think the coaching staff shares in the loss? It is a team sport — including coaching — after all.

[Steven43]

I'm thinking he might walk home with them.

If we are a 10 deep team, we certainly did not show it tonight. The GOAT did not seem very energized or willing to roll out our "reserves" in an effort to spark something. Something was seriously off tonight, for the players and Coach K.

I don't think this was a learning game. It was something else; I hope my foreboding is misplaced.

What is this hidden darkness to which you allude?

[CDu]

I'm not going to re-watch the game to see exactly what happened on State's PNRs. But for the game, in addition to shooting 40.7% on layups, State shot 41.9% on two-point jumpers, which to me doesn't scream "easy looks" or "torched our bigs on jumpers." As for their threes, only three of them were assisted and one of those (by Funderburk) was not a PNR. Not sure if the other two assisted threes were on PNR or not.

Well, I DID rewatch the game, and came away even more concerned about our handling of the high ball screens than I was when I mentioned it last night. That was clearly the focus of their half-court offense, and they went to it repeatedly. The vast majority of their offense was predicted on running that high ball screen to get a guard isolated on a big. Sometimes the guard drove, sometimes he pulled back to set up the straight iso. But it was pretty effective.

And while they did miss several open looks generated, they were still very open. Through the 5-minute mark of the second half, I had 33 half-court possessions for State in which they ran that high ball screen. We defended it well on 12 of them (note: this doesn't consider the outcome, just the process; sometimes we defended okay/well and they scored - two of Johnson's 3s come to mind, sometimes they defended poorly and got bailed out by bad decisions by State). I had them at just over 1 point per possession in those situations, which is pretty bad for a supposedly good half court defense (usually teams are comfortably under 1 in half court and well over 1 in transition, and the VAST majority of their half court points came out of this action.

They were extremely ineffective whenever they tried other things (guards attacking guards, bigs posting up bigs, bigs posting littles).


To me, our defensive problems were not turning them over and them hitting an unnatural percentage from three. We may not have done great on PNRs, but I just don't think that was the major problem.

To be clear, I think all 3 of those things were problems. If we had turned them over a bit more and if they'd hit fewer 3s, maybe it is a 10 point deficit. And if we make a normal rate of FTs, it's a close game. But we were bad in how we handled high ball screens.

And also to be clear, it wasn't JUST pick and rolls, which is just a subset of the high ball screens. There were only 2 or 3 actual pick and rolls. It was the high ball screens in general: the plays that forced our bigs to play defense out of their comfort zone. That resulted in 4 of Johnson's made 3s (all when either iso'd on a big or when the big sagged way too far off and left him wide open) and Hellems' made 3 (when Johnson drove and drew the entire weakside defense in, leaving Hellems wide open on the wing) and Daniels' made corner 3 late in the game (same concept but to the corner shooter not the wing shooter). It also resulted in almost all of Daniels' points, either on uncontested/lightly contested layups or on drawing fouls on drives.

Also, it's worth noting that 3pt defense and turnovers are not independent of handling the high ball screen. As I mentioned above, the high ball screen did create numerous wide open looks on jumpers, some of them 3s. It more often resulted in shots in/around the paint, but it most certainly led to wide open 3s. And by running those plays and making the big defending the perimeter the focal point, it took the guys who are most adept at forcing turnovers out of the equation.

[House P]

Is that potentially a historic flip from massive blowout to getting massively blown out?

As far as I can tell, last night is the only time that a Duke team under Coach K followed a 30+ point win with a 20+ point loss in the next game.

Since the 1980-81 season, there have been two instances of Duke following a 20+ point win with a 20+ point loss:

In Feb 1998, Duke lost to UNC by 24 after beating Georgia Tech by 21 in the previous game.
In Mar 1991, Duke lost to UNC by 22 in the ACC tournament after beating NC State by 21 in the previous game.

The 1991 season ended OK, so that is the precedent that I am going with! :D

[Kedsy]

To be clear, I think all 3 of those things were problems. If we had turned them over a bit more and if they'd hit fewer 3s, maybe it is a 10 point deficit. And if we make a normal rate of FTs, it's a close game. But we were bad in how we handled high ball screens.

And also to be clear, it wasn't JUST pick and rolls, which is just a subset of the high ball screens. There were only 2 or 3 actual pick and rolls. It was the high ball screens in general: the plays that forced our bigs to play defense out of their comfort zone. That resulted in 4 of Johnson's made 3s (all when either iso'd on a big or when the big sagged way too far off and left him wide open) and Hellems' made 3 (when Johnson drove and drew the entire weakside defense in, leaving Hellems wide open on the wing) and Daniels' made corner 3 late in the game (same concept but to the corner shooter not the wing shooter). It also resulted in almost all of Daniels' points, either on uncontested/lightly contested layups or on drawing fouls on drives.

Also, it's worth noting that 3pt defense and turnovers are not independent of handling the high ball screen. As I mentioned above, the high ball screen did create numerous wide open looks on jumpers, some of them 3s. It more often resulted in shots in/around the paint, but it most certainly led to wide open 3s. And by running those plays and making the big defending the perimeter the focal point, it took the guys who are most adept at forcing turnovers out of the equation.

All fair points.

[PackMan97]

The 1991 season ended OK, so that is the precedent that I am going with! :D

Negative...you miss the part about losing to UNC! Unacceptable. That team was a failure.

[devildeac]

Negative...you miss the part about losing to UNC! Unacceptable. That team was a failure.

Pot. Kettle.

:rolleyes:

[scottdude8]

Is it me, or does Tre's D seem to be a tad on the leaky side recently? I know the numbers have Duke as a top 10 D but it seems like any team with a touch of athleticism can get whatever they want on offense. I would think that Tre, JGold, Cas, Wendell and Vernon would be a pretty good defensive unit.

This is an interesting observation that I wouldn't doubt, although it was hard to pinpoint Tre's defense in an overall subpar team effort yesterday. I will say that last year he was able to focus entirely on his D, and be a secondary offensive piece. Now he's exerting more effort offensively, which may be coming at a price on the defensive end.

It actually reminds me of a similar situation at Michigan: last year, Jon Teske was the fifth option offensively, and focused on cleaning up the glass and being a defensive stopper at the rim. This year he's been the Wolverine's second option offensively, and his defense fell off a cliff. I think that comes from a combination of playing more minutes and having to exert a ton of effort offensively. Notably, over the past few weeks with Michigan's backup center stepping up big time, allowing Teske more rest, his and the team's defense has stepped back up considerably.

[TKG]

I'm late to this thread but having watched K's press conference, I cannot imagine a greater criticism that K can level at his team than "we were not competitive".

[Lar77]

Frustrating game to watch. Hats off to the Pack (now repeat the effort with FSU and @cheats). Johnson was lights out

We were clearly out of focus. If nothing else, free throws are the indicator (10 of 22 - really?). Some horrendous passes. Daniels in the first 10 minutes off the ball screen and Funderburk not being blocked out in the second half. Not communicating on defense or offense. Where is the drive and kick? Lots of poor positioning on rebounds. Even the coaching seemed passive.

We have looked awful in our other 3 losses. This one can go with them.

Next game

PS - Greenberg should not do games. Enough said on that.

[kAzE]

Greenberg should not do games. Enough said on that.

Amen to that. That was one of the least impartial performances I've ever seen from a commentator of a national TV broadcast. It was infuriating to hear him talk nonstop about what State needed to do to win the game, even when they were already up by 20. Somebody just give that guy a NC State cheerleader outfit.

[WakeDevil]

I predict this winter storm will be a bigger debacle than Duke's performance last night. Is that possible?

[kAzE]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uS7Kmil3pTQ

Pretty sobering stuff. I think Coach K is basically saying we're good, but not quite as good as our record would indicate. During the press conference he said "We're not that good. We're 'good', and we've accomplished 'very good.' We don't have the consistency of 'really good' with every player."

Not trying to be pessimistic, it's just being realistic. We're need more consistency, especially from guys not named Tre Jones and Vernon Carey, but we also need those 2 guys to play better.

Tre's shooting 43%, that's not ideal when he's the only guy who can consistently create offense. His shot selection at times has not been great. I'm really not a fan of the contested pull 3s with 25 seconds on the shot clock. He can hit those, but we can get a better shot than that. Vernon has limitations defending on the perimeter that I'm not sure can be fixed. Matthew Hurt is either great, or unplayable, nothing in between. We've looked the best when Cassius Stanley is playing at a high level on both ends, but he has not played his best the past 4 games. Wendell Moore has basically gone MIA since his big game at UNC.

I'm hoping we can get those other guys involved more going forward, and they need to step it up. I'm looking forward to this team playing with some urgency this Saturday.

[KandG]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uS7Kmil3pTQ

Pretty sobering stuff. I think Coach K is basically saying we're good, but not quite as good as our record would indicate. During the press conference he said "We're not that good. We're 'good', and we've accomplished 'very good.' We don't have the consistency of 'really good' with every player."



"We don't have the consistency of 'really good' with every player" really sums up this team better than anything I've ever heard or read.


We've looked the best when Cassius Stanley is playing at a high level on both ends, but he has not played his best the past 4 games.

Cassius Stanley on 3 pointers the first 16 games: 15/34 = 44%
Cassius Stanley on 3 pointers the last 8 games: 6/31 = 19%

Reversing this trend (assuming it's capable of being reversed and the first part of the season wasn't a fluke) would certainly make us a better offensive team, even if three point shooting isn't a big part of his game. It would diversify our offense and open things up for his teammates.

[proelitedota]

Cross posting from the other thread:


If you look at Barttorvik, the number of "bad" (below 80) games we've had each of the past 9 seasons before March. It's unprecedented for us to have so many bad games in season before March.

2020: 6 (59, 66, 69, 75, 73, 21)
2019: 3 (78, 58, 44)
2018: 5 (62, 74, 72, 74, 79)
2017: 4 (40, 71, 62, 79)
2016: 3 (77, 75, 37)
2015: 4 (78, 75, 48, 68)
2014: 4 (72, 76, 76, 70)
2013: 5 (79, 29, 77, 74, 69)
2012: 4 (59, 56, 74, 78, 37)

I am not downplaying the potential of this team, but we should heed K's word that this is merely a good team that has a very good record on paper.

The 2016 played in a very tough ACC so their records and stats were a bit skewed.

[roywhite]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uS7Kmil3pTQ

Pretty sobering stuff. I think Coach K is basically saying we're good, but not quite as good as our record would indicate. During the press conference he said "We're not that good. We're 'good', and we've accomplished 'very good.' We don't have the consistency of 'really good' with every player."

Not trying to be pessimistic, it's just being realistic. We're need more consistency, especially from guys not named Tre Jones and Vernon Carey, but we also need those 2 guys to play better.

Tre's shooting 43%, that's not ideal when he's the only guy who can consistently create offense. His shot selection at times has not been great. I'm really not a fan of the contested pull 3s with 25 seconds on the shot clock. He can hit those, but we can get a better shot than that. Vernon has limitations defending on the perimeter that I'm not sure can be fixed. Matthew Hurt is either great, or unplayable, nothing in between. We've looked the best when Cassius Stanley is playing at a high level on both ends, but he has not played his best the past 4 games. Wendell Moore has basically gone MIA since his big game at UNC.

I'm hoping we can get those other guys involved more going forward, and they need to step it up. I'm looking forward to this team playing with some urgency this Saturday.

Good comments; checked on numbers for Cassius Stanley
Last 4 games played (BC, UNC, FSU, not ND due to eye poke, NCSU)
17-45 FG 37.8%
2-10 3-pt 20%

42 points total, of which 22 were vs UNC, not in double figures in other 3 games

He's an important guy to get going

[jv001]

The last time was 2013, a year we made the Elite Eight. It happened twice that season - a 27-point drubbing by Miami, and a 22-point loss to Louisville in the NCAAT.



I'm not going to re-watch the game to see exactly what happened on State's PNRs. But for the game, in addition to shooting 40.7% on layups, State shot 41.9% on two-point jumpers, which to me doesn't scream "easy looks" or "torched our bigs on jumpers." As for their threes, only three of them were assisted and one of those (by Funderburk) was not a PNR. Not sure if the other two assisted threes were on PNR or not.

To me, our defensive problems were not turning them over and them hitting an unnatural percentage from three. We may not have done great on PNRs, but I just don't think that was the major problem.



Kyle Singler started and played 24 minutes in a game Duke lost 74-47. Justise Winslow started and played 27 minutes in a game we lost by 16 at home. Grayson Allen started and played 38 minutes in a 14-point loss at Pitt, started and played 26 minutes in a 16-point loss at FSU, and played 17 minutes in the second half against South Carolina when we lost the half by 14. Jason Williams lost by double-digits three times to Maryland (and almost twice more). Shane Battier participated in two of those double-digit beatings (and both the "almosts"). Christian Laettner lost by 20 at home to UNC in 1989, and he and Bobby Hurley both lost by 17 at Virginia and 22 to UNC (in a year we won the national championship), not to mention losing by 30 to UNLV in 1990.

Sometimes you just get beat.

My main point was those guys hated losing and busted their rear ends to win. I can't remember Coach K ever saying any of those guys were not competitive. In public anyway. I'm sure there were games the team that those players were on maybe were flat a few times but not as many as this years team. Tre is the one guy that I would say shows toughness every game.
As for the PNR, it seemed State was ready for our man2man and ran that play many times with success. It did seem to me that the State screener would move slightly when setting the pick and I don't think it was called but one time. But that didn't lose the game but coming out flat had a lot to do with the loss.

GoDuke!

[CDu]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uS7Kmil3pTQ

Pretty sobering stuff. I think Coach K is basically saying we're good, but not quite as good as our record would indicate. During the press conference he said "We're not that good. We're 'good', and we've accomplished 'very good.' We don't have the consistency of 'really good' with every player."

Not trying to be pessimistic, it's just being realistic. We're need more consistency, especially from guys not named Tre Jones and Vernon Carey, but we also need those 2 guys to play better.

Tre's shooting 43%, that's not ideal when he's the only guy who can consistently create offense. His shot selection at times has not been great. I'm really not a fan of the contested pull 3s with 25 seconds on the shot clock. He can hit those, but we can get a better shot than that. Vernon has limitations defending on the perimeter that I'm not sure can be fixed. Matthew Hurt is either great, or unplayable, nothing in between. We've looked the best when Cassius Stanley is playing at a high level on both ends, but he has not played his best the past 4 games. Wendell Moore has basically gone MIA since his big game at UNC.

I'm hoping we can get those other guys involved more going forward, and they need to step it up. I'm looking forward to this team playing with some urgency this Saturday.

I tend to agree with all of this. Coming into the season, there were real concerns about the squad talentwise. We came out like gangbusters in November and early December. But since ACC play has started, we haven't looked so good. In short, we're probably now playing more like the team we thought we would have as of September/October rather than the team that we thought we had in November/early December. Fortunately, the conference is historically weak, so some of our struggles have been masked. But there are reasons for concern.

Unlocking Moore, Stanley, and Hurt to be more consistent would be huge. Each of them has had moments (in Stanley's case, more than just moments) where they have been studs. But they also completely disappear. We don't need them to be studs night in and night out, but it's really hard to feel good about the team's chances when there is so much volatility in their performance. Getting at least somewhat more consistency would be huge. Last night was unfortunately a clunker for all 3 at the same time, AND we had a less than stellar night from Jones, AND our defense struggled. Bad combination, and it resulted in the worst performance in over a decade.

[Saratoga2]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uS7Kmil3pTQ

Pretty sobering stuff. I think Coach K is basically saying we're good, but not quite as good as our record would indicate. During the press conference he said "We're not that good. We're 'good', and we've accomplished 'very good.' We don't have the consistency of 'really good' with every player."

Not trying to be pessimistic, it's just being realistic. We're need more consistency, especially from guys not named Tre Jones and Vernon Carey, but we also need those 2 guys to play better.

Tre's shooting 43%, that's not ideal when he's the only guy who can consistently create offense. His shot selection at times has not been great. I'm really not a fan of the contested pull 3s with 25 seconds on the shot clock. He can hit those, but we can get a better shot than that. Vernon has limitations defending on the perimeter that I'm not sure can be fixed. Matthew Hurt is either great, or unplayable, nothing in between. We've looked the best when Cassius Stanley is playing at a high level on both ends, but he has not played his best the past 4 games. Wendell Moore has basically gone MIA since his big game at UNC.

I'm hoping we can get those other guys involved more going forward, and they need to step it up. I'm looking forward to this team playing with some urgency this Saturday.

Coach K's comment that we (the players) were not hungry, implying the team didn't play as hard as they needed to and perhaps didn't care enough to do so. I don't believe the kids don't care or try enough. I see it differently in that NCST played a smart game on offense and defense and they were he better team.

Our kids have been together long enough and been coached enough that their capabilities and weaknesses are established. NCST knew that spreading our defense out and driving against it has worked in the past and they had the right type guards to make it work well. They also knew they could crash the glass and get a lot of opportunities inside. Finally, they knew we sometimes overplayed defense on the ball opening 3 point shooting opportunnites. NCST made the most of their opportunites while we didn't.

Missed FTs was glaring (10-22) and maybe worse since some of those were on 1 and 1 fouls.

Our offense was built around 2 players. We are lucky to have such a capable player as Vernon. Tre was primarily a defesive player last year and have improved offensively this year but is not really a guard that can get anything he wants nor is he a very high percentage shooter. He is good offensively but he needs to involve others so that they can contribute. It was either get the ball to Vernon or try to take NCST on using a one on one basis. Maybe the other alternatives are not capable and if so we are not that good. The alternative is coach K insists on spreading the ball around and trying to see if Hurt, Stanley, Moore and AOC can produce. I don't think enough was done last night to get more out of our 3rd and 4th options.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Coach K's comment that we (the players) were not hungry, implying the team didn't play as hard as they needed to and perhaps didn't care enough to do so. I don't believe the kids don't care or try enough. I see it differently in that NCST played a smart game on offense and defense and they were he better team.

Our kids have been together long enough and been coached enough that their capabilities and weaknesses are established. NCST knew that spreading our defense out and driving against it has worked in the past and they had the right type guards to make it work well. They also knew they could crash the glass and get a lot of opportunities inside. Finally, they knew we sometimes overplayed defense on the ball opening 3 point shooting opportunnites. NCST made the most of their opportunites while we didn't.

Missed FTs was glaring (10-22) and maybe worse since some of those were on 1 and 1 fouls.

Our offense was built around 2 players. We are lucky to have such a capable player as Vernon. Tre was primarily a defesive player last year and have improved offensively this year but is not really a guard that can get anything he wants nor is he a very high percentage shooter. He is good offensively but he needs to involve others so that they can contribute. It was either get the ball to Vernon or try to take NCST on using a one on one basis. Maybe the other alternatives are not capable and if so we are not that good. The alternative is coach K insists on spreading the ball around and trying to see if Hurt, Stanley, Moore and AOC can produce. I don't think enough was done last night to get more out of our 3rd and 4th options.

I agree with that, and would only add that Baker is also a potential 3rd, 4th option.

[CDu]

Coach K's comment that we (the players) were not hungry, implying the team didn't play as hard as they needed to and perhaps didn't care enough to do so. I don't believe the kids don't care or try enough. I see it differently in that NCST played a smart game on offense and defense and they were he better team.

Our kids have been together long enough and been coached enough that their capabilities and weaknesses are established. NCST knew that spreading our defense out and driving against it has worked in the past and they had the right type guards to make it work well. They also knew they could crash the glass and get a lot of opportunities inside. Finally, they knew we sometimes overplayed defense on the ball opening 3 point shooting opportunnites. NCST made the most of their opportunites while we didn't.

Missed FTs was glaring (10-22) and maybe worse since some of those were on 1 and 1 fouls.

Our offense was built around 2 players. We are lucky to have such a capable player as Vernon. Tre was primarily a defesive player last year and have improved offensively this year but is not really a guard that can get anything he wants nor is he a very high percentage shooter. He is good offensively but he needs to involve others so that they can contribute. It was either get the ball to Vernon or try to take NCST on using a one on one basis. Maybe the other alternatives are not capable and if so we are not that good. The alternative is coach K insists on spreading the ball around and trying to see if Hurt, Stanley, Moore and AOC can produce. I don't think enough was done last night to get more out of our 3rd and 4th options.

I think the biggest takeaways I had from last night were:
1. How troublesome the high ball screen action was for us defensively, and how willing and able NC State was at getting it.
2. Offensively, how little "plan B" we had. Everything seemed to be "Route 1" stuff: direct entry passes to a posting Carey; one on one drives from a guard/wing. We seemed very unable to run any semblance of coordinated offense. Considering that State ISN'T a good defensive team, that should be concerning.

The rest I feel like was just somewhat aberrant: State's 3pt shooting, our FT shooting, our unforced turnovers. But even if we take the aberrant part away, I think we still underperformed due to points 1 and 2 above. And I'm not sure how easily it will be to address those two things.

Offensively, we can only really rely on two things: Jones creating midrange shots for himself and sometimes getting to the rim, and Carey posting up. Everything else feels iffy at best. Hurt is skilled but slow and weak, and just disappears too much. Moore is just way too sloppy with the ball to be a trusted offensive player. Stanley doesn't dribble well enough or shoot well enough to be relied upon offensively. O'Connell has talent but makes too many mistakes. Baker is too one-dimensional. And everyone else is just really limited offensively. It feels like we've been playing a delicate balancing act, and the cracks are starting to show. Hopefully they can make adjustments, but it's still a team full of mostly one-way players that Coach K is trying to pull the right strings to make work. And that makes everything iffy. Thankfully it's a down year across college bball and especially so in the ACC. Otherwise, this team might have the potential to be one of our worst since the 2007 season. But because it's a down year overall, we've been just good enough at the right times to make it work. But games like last night show the downside this group is capable of given it's limitations.

[roywhite]

Duke shooting in the 1st half from the boxscore
https://goduke.com/documents/2020/2/20//Duke_NC_State_Box_Score.pdf

FG % 1st Half: 13-37 35.1%
3FG % 1st Half: 1-7 14.3%
FT % 1st Half: 2-7 28.6%

Stunningly bad. Yeah, NCSU was very effective offensively, but the Duke offense bears the responsibility of at least staying within striking distance.

[kAzE]

I think the biggest takeaways I had from last night were:
1. How troublesome the high ball screen action was for us defensively, and how willing and able NC State was at getting it.
2. Offensively, how little "plan B" we had. Everything seemed to be "Route 1" stuff: direct entry passes to a posting Carey; one on one drives from a guard/wing. We seemed very unable to run any semblance of coordinated offense. Considering that State ISN'T a good defensive team, that should be concerning.

The rest I feel like was just somewhat aberrant: State's 3pt shooting, our FT shooting, our unforced turnovers. But even if we take the aberrant part away, I think we still underperformed due to points 1 and 2 above. And I'm not sure how easily it will be to address those two things.

Offensively, we can only really rely on two things: Jones creating midrange shots for himself and sometimes getting to the rim, and Carey posting up. Everything else feels iffy at best. Hurt is skilled but slow and weak, and just disappears too much. Moore is just way too sloppy with the ball to be a trusted offensive player. Stanley doesn't dribble well enough or shoot well enough to be relied upon offensively. O'Connell has talent but makes too many mistakes. Baker is too one-dimensional. And everyone else is just really limited offensively. It feels like we've been playing a delicate balancing act, and the cracks are starting to show. Hopefully they can make adjustments, but it's still a team full of mostly one-way players that Coach K is trying to pull the right strings to make work. And that makes everything iffy. Thankfully it's a down year across college bball and especially so in the ACC. Otherwise, this team might have the potential to be one of our worst since the 2007 season. But because it's a down year overall, we've been just good enough at the right times to make it work. But games like last night show the downside this group is capable of given it's limitations.

Offensively, we've had our best games when everyone on the team is involved, and I think it has be on Tre to create more for others rather than himself. At some point this season, Tre began taking way more early shot clock pull-up jumpers than he ever did before, and our offensive numbers have been in steady decline over the past 2-3 weeks. One of our biggest strengths early on in the year was our offensive rebounding, and that's completely nullified when the point guard takes a pull up jump shot before anyone is position to rebound.

Personally, I think Cassius is extremely underutilized in this offense. He's not an elite dribbler, but I don't think it's a major weakness of his game. He's very capable of going 1 on 1 and creating a decent shot for himself in iso situations. Apart from Vernon, Cassius certainly has as much of a physical/athletic advantage over his typical matchup as anyone. Towards the beginning of the season, and during his best stretch of games, Cassius was attacking the rim, scoring, and getting to the foul line with regularity. Certainly, the lack of steals and transition opportunities hurt him more than anyone last night, but he's probably our best perimeter scorer even in the half court, and I think he should get more touches.

Cassius himself needs to be more aggressive (stop settling for 3s when they aren't going in, you have a freaking 46 inch vertical), but that's somewhat hard to do when the point guard is taking so many possessions for himself. Sometimes, we do need Tre to take over and look to aggressively score, but overall, I think he needs to look to distribute more and shoot less, and understand situations when he needs to look to get others going, as well as knowing when he needs to take over the game himself.

[CDu]

Duke shooting in the 1st half from the boxscore
https://goduke.com/documents/2020/2/20//Duke_NC_State_Box_Score.pdf

FG % 1st Half: 13-37 35.1%
3FG % 1st Half: 1-7 14.3%
FT % 1st Half: 2-7 28.6%

Stunningly bad. Yeah, NCSU was very effective offensively, but the Duke offense bears the responsibility of at least staying within striking distance.

Yep. That was one of the reasons I wasn't completely despondent at halftime (obviously not pleased, but at least hopeful). We had played about the worst half of basketball we'd played all season, but were still within striking distance of a very up-and-down opponent.

Unfortunately, the offense didn't get better quickly enough, and the defense continued to struggle. Uggh, a gross loss all around. Credit to State for maintaining a very good gameplan and executing extremely well. But we certainly helped them out too.

[CDu]

Offensively, we've had our best games when everyone on the team is involved, and I think it has be on Tre to create more for others rather than himself. At some point this season, Tre began taking way more early shot clock pull-up jumpers than he ever did before, and our offensive numbers have been in steady decline over the past 2-3 weeks. One of our biggest strengths early on in the year was our offensive rebounding, and that's completely nullified when the point guard takes a pull up jump shot before anyone is position to rebound.

Personally, I think Cassius is extremely underutilized in this offense. He's not an elite dribbler, but I don't think it's a major weakness of his game. He's very capable of going 1 on 1 and creating a decent shot for himself in iso situations. Apart from Vernon, Cassius certainly has as much of a physical/athletic advantage over his typical matchup as anyone. Towards the beginning of the season, and during his best stretch of games, Cassius was attacking the rim, scoring, and getting to the foul line with regularity. Certainly, the lack of steals and transition opportunities hurt him more than anyone last night, but he's probably our best perimeter scorer even in the half court, and I think he should get more touches.

Cassius himself needs to be more aggressive, but that's somewhat hard to do when the point guard is taking so many possessions for himself. Sometimes, we do need Tre to take over and look to aggressively score, but overall, I think he needs to look to distribute more and shoot less, and understand situations when he needs to look to get others going, as well as knowing when he needs to take over the game himself.

I agree that Stanley is the guy that has the best chance of stepping up. I think a big part of it is that he's stopped hitting his 3s. If you have to contest his 3pt shot, he's far more dangerous off the dribble. If you can sag off of him, he's not dynamic enough a ballhandler to create his shot consistently. Or at least he hasn't shown that to this point. But, yeah, they really need to get Stanley going again. Moore and Hurt have potential, too, but there's much more going on there. Stanley it just feels like he needs to be more aggressive and less deferential.

What definitely needs to happen less is Goldwire chucking up so many shots. One of the backbreaker moments was when we were down 12 and starting to make State sweat in the second half. We got an offensive rebound, and kicked it back out. But rather than run offense to get the ball to one of our scorers, Goldwire forced up a 3. He missed, they got the ball, and I think they went down and scored. And we never really threatened. If we get a good shot in that possession, maybe we chip it to 9 or 10 with a lot of time left, and State's nerves come into play. But that shot felt like a bad shot when he started to take it, and turned out to be a bad shot for the team.

Jones had quite a few bad shots/possessions as well, as you alluded to. But he's actually only shooting slightly more (and probably within the margin for error) in ACC play than overall for the season. I don't know that he's necessarily taking too many shots per se, but perhaps he is taking too many ill-advised shots.

[WakeDevil]

Duke shooting in the 1st half from the boxscore
https://goduke.com/documents/2020/2/20//Duke_NC_State_Box_Score.pdf

FG % 1st Half: 13-37 35.1%
3FG % 1st Half: 1-7 14.3%
FT % 1st Half: 2-7 28.6%

Stunningly bad. Yeah, NCSU was very effective offensively, but the Duke offense bears the responsibility of at least staying within striking distance.

Kudos for know the difference between effective and efficient. You are ahead of Ken Pomeroy and the NFL, among others.

Things were so confusing that Duke had the UNC players shooting its free throws.

[azzefkram]

Offensively, we've had our best games when everyone on the team is involved, and I think it has be on Tre to create more for others rather than himself. At some point this season, Tre began taking way more early shot clock pull-up jumpers than he ever did before, and our offensive numbers have been in steady decline over the past 2-3 weeks. One of our biggest strengths early on in the year was our offensive rebounding, and that's completely nullified when the point guard takes a pull up jump shot before anyone is position to rebound.

Personally, I think Cassius is extremely underutilized in this offense. He's not an elite dribbler, but I don't think it's a major weakness of his game. He's very capable of going 1 on 1 and creating a decent shot for himself in iso situations. Apart from Vernon, Cassius certainly has as much of a physical/athletic advantage over his typical matchup as anyone. Towards the beginning of the season, and during his best stretch of games, Cassius was attacking the rim, scoring, and getting to the foul line with regularity. Certainly, the lack of steals and transition opportunities hurt him more than anyone last night, but he's probably our best perimeter scorer even in the half court, and I think he should get more touches.

Cassius himself needs to be more aggressive (stop settling for 3s when they aren't going in, you have a freaking 46 inch vertical), but that's somewhat hard to do when the point guard is taking so many possessions for himself. Sometimes, we do need Tre to take over and look to aggressively score, but overall, I think he needs to look to distribute more and shoot less, and understand situations when he needs to look to get others going, as well as knowing when he needs to take over the game himself.

This is more of a Cassius problem than a Tre problem. Tre can play a bit of hero ball but it seems to happen when the team is down and needs someone to step up. It might even be instigated by K. Cas' handle is weaker than you are letting on. He's not quite Wendell but he's pretty close. That being said, I, too, would like to see Cas be more aggressive even at the expense of more TOs. Cas gets plenty of touches. I just think he needs to do more with them.

[SouthernDukie]

What you said in bold...is, or should be, patently obvious. Athletes don't run the identical speed, jump the identical height, have the identical strength, every single game. They don't process with identical mental sharpness game to game either. There are good games and bad games, good days and bad days...and motivation, intensity, ie, WANT TO is probably the biggest factor there. Other factors include biorhythms, rest, feeling a little sick or not, etc....but "want to" is way up the list.

Sorry to be late to the after-party today. This is 100% true. Anyone who has played competitive ball knows just how true it is. Not to be rude, but whenever I hear or read dismissive comments about this factor in ballgames I just shake my head. Coach K clearly believes in it as well. And it most certainly was a factor in last night’s loss.

[FerryFor50]

Is it me, or does Tre's D seem to be a tad on the leaky side recently? I know the numbers have Duke as a top 10 D but it seems like any team with a touch of athleticism can get whatever they want on offense. I would think that Tre, JGold, Cas, Wendell and Vernon would be a pretty good defensive unit.

I never thought Tre's D was elite to begin with. He gets blown by quite a bit because he's not super quick, and I think a lot of his defensive reputation was gained last season because he could pressure the ball, not worry about offense, and set up Zion with a steal from behind on a trap.

Now that he has to do more and now that opposing teams make him the focal point, his deficiencies are showing. He's still a *solid* defender. But I think Goldwire is a bit better on the ball.

It also doesn't help him that being called an "elite" defender by the talking heads and being on POY lists brings out the competitive spirit for opposing guards. Markell Johnson is one of those players who *needs* a chip on his shoulder to play well. If he's not motivated, he's a net-negative. But having a matchup with Tre lit a fire under him and we all saw what happened.

[devildeac]

Kudos for know the difference between effective and efficient. You are ahead of Ken Pomeroy and the NFL, among others.

Things were so confusing that Duke had the UNC players shooting its free throws.

Darn shame we didn't wear the "u"nc unis. State would've been in real trouble then. :rolleyes:

[JDNC64]

Wendell with the ball makes me more nervous than anybody this side of freshman Jeff Capel!

[Kedsy]

At some point this season, Tre began taking way more early shot clock pull-up jumpers than he ever did before, and our offensive numbers have been in steady decline over the past 2-3 weeks.

Our offensive numbers haven't really been in steady decline over the past two/three weeks, but they've been very inconsistent. Here's a table showing our adjusted ppp for all February games:



ppp*
Syr 1.29
BC 0.95
UNC 1.11
FSU 1.11
ND 1.28
NCSU 0.92


Following your suggestion, here's an expansion of that table with Tre Jones's offensive numbers:



ppp* FG FGA 3p 3pa FT FTA Pts Asts Tos TS% eFG%
Syr 1.29 3 8 1 3 10 10 17 6 4 1.333 0.438
BC 0.95 7 15 0 3 4 5 18 4 2 1.036 0.467
UNC 1.11 11 25 0 5 6 9 28 6 2 0.956 0.440
FSU 1.11 5 16 0 2 3 5 13 6 5 0.707 0.313
ND 1.28 9 13 1 2 0 0 19 6 2 1.462 0.731
NCSU 0.92 6 18 2 5 3 5 17 4 2 0.834 0.389


* ppp adjusted for competition using Pomeroy numbers

The most obvious takeaway is that Tre's two most efficient games (based on true shooting pct) correspond to the team's two stellar offensive games in the period, but after those two games there doesn't seem to be a strong correlation (with the caveat that we're only talking about six games here). The two games with the fewest Tre FG attempts (as well as "true shooting attempts," including FTs but not in the table) also correspond to the two good offensive games for the team. He had six assists in four of the games and four assists in the two worst team offensive performances, which may mean something but probably doesn't. Turnovers don't seem to tell us anything. That's about it. Six games probably isn't enough to say anything definitive.

[CDu]

I never thought Tre's D was elite to begin with. He gets blown by quite a bit because he's not super quick, and I think a lot of his defensive reputation was gained last season because he could pressure the ball, not worry about offense, and set up Zion with a steal from behind on a trap.

Now that he has to do more and now that opposing teams make him the focal point, his deficiencies are showing. He's still a *solid* defender. But I think Goldwire is a bit better on the ball.

It also doesn't help him that being called an "elite" defender by the talking heads and being on POY lists brings out the competitive spirit for opposing guards. Markell Johnson is one of those players who *needs* a chip on his shoulder to play well. If he's not motivated, he's a net-negative. But having a matchup with Tre lit a fire under him and we all saw what happened.

I disagree. Well, I agree that Jones’ reputation was helped a lot by Zion last year. But I think he IS a really good on-ball defender. He has had plenty of terrific performances even this year without Zion. Now, he is not flawless, and can be beaten. But I think his steps back defensively this year are because he is asked to carry such a load a OFfensively that it is hard to maintain that same effort level defensively. On-ball defense at PG takes a TON of effort. And since he has such an offensive burden and rarely sits, that is exhausting. It is one of the reasons Goldwire is playing more: to try to let Jones take some offensive possessions off. Unfortunately, I think we are gonna need to get Jones his rest elsewhere.

I would also say he is a much better on-ball defender than Goldwire. Goldwire is a menace in transition D and has gotten better at on ball defense. But he isn’t nearly as versatile an on-ball defender nor as consistently effective. He was downright bad at it last year (basically was a gimmick defender for overaggressive full-court press in limited minutes), and now is just solid at it while still being a good opportunistic pressure defender.

[sagegrouse]

My starters against VT gives credit to effort and passion

Tre
Vernon
Joey Baker -- Jeez! He at least showed some moxie
Wendell -- the effort was there if not the results, eclipsing most of the others
Jack White, who always brings it

Instead of White, possibly either
Cassius (who truly deserves to sit) or Matthew (whose size is not really need against a smaller VT team).

Goldwire can come off the bench -- we need scoring -- as can O'Connell, who can contribute quite a bit. DeLaurier can spell Vernon.

Sage

[kAzE]

Our offensive numbers haven't really been in steady decline over the past two/three weeks, but they've been very inconsistent.

Perhaps we should be looking at a larger sample size, then? All I know is, we were a top 5 offense (and top 5 defense) on KenPom not too long ago, and now we are #11/#7. I assume this has a least something to do with perhaps a slightly higher level of competition in our more recent games? But IMO our schedule has been relatively easy throughout.

Or maybe I'm just completely wrong about Tre being part of the issue and these freshman (other than Vernon) are all slamming into the freshman wall at the same time.

[CDu]

Perhaps we should be looking at a larger sample size, then? All I know is, we were a top 5 offense (and top 5 defense) on KenPom not too long ago, and now we are #11/#7. I assume this has a least something to do with perhaps a slightly higher level of competition in our more recent games?

Or maybe I'm just completely wrong about Tre being part of the issue and these freshman (other than Vernon) are all hitting the freshman wall at the same time.

Jones really hasn’t been shooting more in ACC play. Maybe the shots are coming from different spots, but he averaged 20.5 FGA per 100 possessions in pre-conference play and 21.2 per in conference play. Maybe the types of shots are different, but his overall stat line has been remarkably consistent in and out of conference (not necessarily game to game, but on average).

I think it may just be that Stanley is slumping a bit.

[kAzE]

Jones really hasn’t been shooting more in ACC play. Maybe the shots are coming from different spots, but he averaged 20.5 FGA per 100 possessions in pre-conference play and 21.2 per in conference play. Maybe the types of shots are different, but his overall stat line has been remarkably consistent in and out of conference (not necessarily game to game, but on average).

I think it may just be that Stanley is slumping a bit.

I think I just personally get triggered when the point guard brings the ball up and shoots it before anyone else has touched the ball. Too many bad memories from pick up games.

[sagegrouse]

I think I just personally get triggered when the point guard brings the ball up and shoots it before anyone else has touched the ball. Too many bad memories from pick up games.

Don't disagree, but -- aside from Vernon -- who showed any interest in getting the ball and making some offensive plays?

[szstark]

I'm not sure I'd use the Carolina comeback as a reason for optimism. We played terribly that game and should have lost. If either UNC or Florida St. had hit their normal percentage from the free throw line, we would have lost those games.

This Duke team is just not that good on the road. Since the January 4 game at Miami, we have failed to defeat a team on their home court by more than single digits, even lowly Boston College.

Certainly, I don't believe Duke is a first weekend team, but does any of this make me think we are national title contenders right now? Not really. Losing by 20+ isn't something that inspires confidence.

We need to see how the team responds from this, but I honestly cannot remember the last time we got beat by 20. That was embarrassing.

We've lost two games on the road. We've also lost two games at home. Does that make us not good at home? I guess it's a good thing tournament games are played on neutral courts.

[dukelifer]

I'm not sure I'd use the Carolina comeback as a reason for optimism. We played terribly that game and should have lost. If either UNC or Florida St. had hit their normal percentage from the free throw line, we would have lost those games.

This Duke team is just not that good on the road. Since the January 4 game at Miami, we have failed to defeat a team on their home court by more than single digits, even lowly Boston College.

Certainly, I don't believe Duke is a first weekend team, but does any of this make me think we are national title contenders right now? Not really. Losing by 20+ isn't something that inspires confidence.

We need to see how the team responds from this, but I honestly cannot remember the last time we got beat by 20. That was embarrassing.
At the end of last season- a Zionless Duke lost 3 of the last 6 games and only beat a lowly Wake team by 1 on a miracle miss at the buzzer. This stretch of the season is very tough on young teams.

[Kedsy]

Perhaps we should be looking at a larger sample size, then? All I know is, we were a top 5 offense (and top 5 defense) on KenPom not too long ago, and now we are #11/#7. I assume this has a least something to do with perhaps a slightly higher level of competition in our more recent games? But IMO our schedule has been relatively easy throughout.

Here's the adjusted ppp since December 31:



Game Adj oRtg
BC 1 1.26
Mia 1 1.27
GaT 1.12
Wake 1.34
Clem 1.05
L'Ville 1.08
Mia 2 1.23
Pitt 1.30
Syr 1.29
BC 2 0.95
UNC 1.11
FSU 1.11
ND 1.28
NCSU 0.92


The stretch from January 8 (Ga Tech) to January 18 (Louisville) had three not-so-good performances out of four games. The recent stretch of February 4 (BC) to February 19 (NCSU) had four not-so-good (including two horrible) out of five games. Still looks more inconsistent and less trending to me. Though we'll have to see how we do in our next few games to see if that's really the case.

If our next few games are poor then I could be convinced it's a concerning trend. If our next few games are mostly back over 1.20 ppp then the current stretch will look more like an inconsistency.

[hustleplays]

I think the biggest takeaways I had from last night were:
1. How troublesome the high ball screen action was for us defensively, and how willing and able NC State was at getting it.
2. Offensively, how little "plan B" we had. Everything seemed to be "Route 1" stuff: direct entry passes to a posting Carey; one on one drives from a guard/wing. We seemed very unable to run any semblance of coordinated offense. Considering that State ISN'T a good defensive team, that should be concerning.

The rest I feel like was just somewhat aberrant: State's 3pt shooting, our FT shooting, our unforced turnovers. But even if we take the aberrant part away, I think we still underperformed due to points 1 and 2 above. And I'm not sure how easily it will be to address those two things.

Offensively, we can only really rely on two things: Jones creating midrange shots for himself and sometimes getting to the rim, and Carey posting up. Everything else feels iffy at best. Hurt is skilled but slow and weak, and just disappears too much. Moore is just way too sloppy with the ball to be a trusted offensive player. Stanley doesn't dribble well enough or shoot well enough to be relied upon offensively. O'Connell has talent but makes too many mistakes. Baker is too one-dimensional. And everyone else is just really limited offensively. It feels like we've been playing a delicate balancing act, and the cracks are starting to show. Hopefully they can make adjustments, but it's still a team full of mostly one-way players that Coach K is trying to pull the right strings to make work. And that makes everything iffy. Thankfully it's a down year across college bball and especially so in the ACC. Otherwise, this team might have the potential to be one of our worst since the 2007 season. But because it's a down year overall, we've been just good enough at the right times to make it work. But games like last night show the downside this group is capable of given it's limitations.

Excellent analysis, IMO, of our limits in both our game plans on Offense and in individual player effectiveness [whatever their ceiling talents might be], other than Tre and Vernon.

Given those limits, Coach K and our own eyeballs saw a team that came out flat. K said that we were never in it for NCSU to take us out of it. NCSU had more energy, seemed to get most of the 50-50 balls. De Laurier said, “I think we’re all a little bit embarrassed by the product we put on the court tonight.” Well, I wish that he had said that they were all VERY embarrassed by the product they put on the court. I wish that he had said that he was angry about how they played and that he let everybody know about it. I could barely watch after the half, not because of the score, but because of the effort. Again, both Coach and many of the players acknowledged it.

I agree with those that point to a lack of a real MFer to light fires under those who don't approach their practices and the games with total warrior spirit. Tre and Vernon are quite silent. They try very hard individually, but I have NEVER seen them get in the face of one of their teammates. In fact, I have never seen any of our players get in the face of another player. Happy to be corrected. Steve Wiseman said that this team could go all the way or go out the first weekend. This team has enough talent to win most of their games if they would never allow any team to outfight them. The coaching staff appears to be excellent. :-) I think that this team needs some fierce player leadership to bring out everybody's best every game, every possession. Hope that kind of leadership emerges.

[duke2x]

Excellent stats insight. I like relative numbers. Duke is +26 more at home and +13 away in offensive efficiency. The only two negative games were @BC and @NCSU. Nothing in those numbers should be a surprise. Our offensive H/A expectations (based on our average performance) for the last 5 games would be as follows:

VT 1.23
@Wake 1.13
@UVA 1.00 (We probably agree 1.20 is not a realistic goal here.)
NCSU 1.22
UNC 1.23

K will probably focus entirely on defense. The thought of the raw points allowed makes me shudder at PPG.

[kshepinthehouse]

I agree that Stanley is the guy that has the best chance of stepping up. I think a big part of it is that he's stopped hitting his 3s. If you have to contest his 3pt shot, he's far more dangerous off the dribble. If you can sag off of him, he's not dynamic enough a ballhandler to create his shot consistently. Or at least he hasn't shown that to this point. But, yeah, they really need to get Stanley going again. Moore and Hurt have potential, too, but there's much more going on there. Stanley it just feels like he needs to be more aggressive and less deferential.

What definitely needs to happen less is Goldwire chucking up so many shots. One of the backbreaker moments was when we were down 12 and starting to make State sweat in the second half. We got an offensive rebound, and kicked it back out. But rather than run offense to get the ball to one of our scorers, Goldwire forced up a 3. He missed, they got the ball, and I think they went down and scored. And we never really threatened. If we get a good shot in that possession, maybe we chip it to 9 or 10 with a lot of time left, and State's nerves come into play. But that shot felt like a bad shot when he started to take it, and turned out to be a bad shot for the team.

Jones had quite a few bad shots/possessions as well, as you alluded to. But he's actually only shooting slightly more (and probably within the margin for error) in ACC play than overall for the season. I don't know that he's necessarily taking too many shots per se, but perhaps he is taking too many ill-advised shots.

I don’t remember when it occurred but I didn’t appreciate Goldwire’s attempt at a reverse layup circus attempt at the time either.

[DUKIE V(A)]

Excellent analysis, IMO, of our limits in both our game plans on Offense and in individual player effectiveness [whatever their ceiling talents might be], other than Tre and Vernon.

Given those limits, Coach K and our own eyeballs saw a team that came out flat. K said that we were never in it for NCSU to take us out of it. NCSU had more energy, seemed to get most of the 50-50 balls. De Laurier said, “I think we’re all a little bit embarrassed by the product we put on the court tonight.” Well, I wish that he had said that they were all VERY embarrassed by the product they put on the court. I wish that he had said that he was angry about how they played and that he let everybody know about it. I could barely watch after the half, not because of the score, but because of the effort. Again, both Coach and many of the players acknowledged it.

I agree with those that point to a lack of a real MFer to light fires under those who don't approach their practices and the games with total warrior spirit. Tre and Vernon are quite silent. They try very hard individually, but I have NEVER seen them get in the face of one of their teammates. In fact, I have never seen any of our players get in the face of another player. Happy to be corrected. Steve Wiseman said that this team could go all the way or go out the first weekend. This team has enough talent to win most of their games if they would never allow any team to outfight them. The coaching staff appears to be excellent. :-) I think that this team needs some fierce player leadership to bring out everybody's best every game, every possession. Hope that kind of leadership emerges.

I think this team has more toughness and passion than many of us give it credit for. Cassius can be very expressive on the court and to me our guys are together. Not everyone outwardly demonstrates their passion, but it does not mean it is not there. I agree that our competitive fire to open some games has been lacking, but this is natural and something that is fixable. It is something that can be learned and changed (for those that don’t have it already). I love outward passion too but perhaps this group is more like a “Quiet Storm”...but in my mind a Storm nonetheless. 😀

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I think this team has more toughness and passion than many of us give it credit for. Cassius can be very expressive on the court and to me our guys are together. Not everyone outwardly demonstrates their passion, but it does not mean it is not there. I agree that our competitive fire to open some games has been lacking, but this is natural and something that is fixable. It is something that can be learned and changed (for those that don’t have it already). I love outward passion too but perhaps this group is more like a “Quiet Storm”...but in my mind a Storm nonetheless. 😀

I agree. How can anyone watch the UNC game and doubt our toughness? We've scratched out some tough wins this year.

Also, all respect to Coach K, but I think "they wanted it more" is a pretty empty platitude at this point in the season. I mean, was that the difference, really? Or was it NCSU hitting shots early, knocking us back, our guys not reacting well, trying too hard to force things, and then realizing too late that their doors were blown off?

Questioning the teams grit and want might play well in the locker room full of 18 year old kids, but let's get for real. Our team "wants" to win. If not, then what are they even doing out there?

As to the discussion of a tough M---- F---- I nominate Goldwire.

[jv001]

I agree. How can anyone watch the UNC game and doubt our toughness? We've scratched out some tough wins this year.

Also, all respect to Coach K, but I think "they wanted it more" is a pretty empty platitude at this point in the season. I mean, was that the difference, really? Or was it NCSU hitting shots early, knocking us back, our guys not reacting well, trying too hard to force things, and then realizing too late that their doors were blown off?

Questioning the teams grit and want might play well in the locker room full of 18 year old kids, but let's get for real. Our team "wants" to win. If not, then what are they even doing out there?

As to the discussion of a tough M---- F---- I nominate Goldwire.

I've been thinking about the matter you mentioned in your last sentence. We use to see Coach K STANDING on the sideline coaching his team but not so much this season. Yeh, he may get up to discuss a call or no call with the refs but not coaching on his feet like he used to. It would seem this would be the perfect team to take that approach with. We have a young team that plays most of the minutes and we have Javin, Jack and AOC upperclassmen that come off the bench. Those last 3 do not get the minutes on the court that the young guys get. I understand Coach has reached the 70s in age and may not be able to do that any longer but I sure miss those days. Ok, lets beat VT and next play.

GoDuke!

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I agree. How can anyone watch the UNC game and doubt our toughness? We've scratched out some tough wins this year.

Also, all respect to Coach K, but I think "they wanted it more" is a pretty empty platitude at this point in the season. I mean, was that the difference, really? Or was it NCSU hitting shots early, knocking us back, our guys not reacting well, trying too hard to force things, and then realizing too late that their doors were blown off?

Questioning the teams grit and want might play well in the locker room full of 18 year old kids, but let's get for real. Our team "wants" to win. If not, then what are they even doing out there?

As to the discussion of a tough M---- F---- I nominate Goldwire.

With due respect, "they wanted it more" is not a platitude, it's not an excuse, it's not anything said to massage the pain away. It's just plain fact. I think you are misinterpreting what that means, what he meant, what it universally means.

It's not why Duke lost...that had to do with how well State played, and how well they shot, and how great the atmosphere was - as K mentioned about 8 times in the presser...but he was expected to comment on why Duke was so poor, and he did, and accurately.

When Duke loses, and plays well, K is the first to admit it. When they play poorly, in a win or a loss, he is honest about that too. They could have played pretty well in that game and still lost....but that's not at all what happened.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

With due respect, "they wanted it more" is not a platitude, it's not an excuse, it's not anything said to massage the pain away. It's just plain fact. I think you are misinterpreting what that means, what he meant, what it universally means.

It's not why Duke lost...that had to do with how well State played, and how well they shot, and how great the atmosphere was - as K mentioned about 8 times in the presser...but he was expected to comment on why Duke was so poor, and he did, and accurately.

When Duke loses, and plays well, K is the first to admit it. When they play poorly, in a win or a loss, he is honest about that too. They could have played pretty well in that game and still lost...but that's not at all what happened.

No one disputes we played terribly and they played lights out.

I just personally think "wanting it more" doesn't mean anything, it doesn't describe anything, and it isn't actionable in practice. I think you can chastise kids in a timeout or at halftime about hustle plays, getting on the floor, scrapping on defense, hitting the boards, and you can lump that into "wanting it" I guess. I think you can get some 19 year old kids fired up talking about desire, and that's good I guess.

To me, the level of desire in a kid's head is unknowable and not generally relevant, but the idea of "wanting it more" gets tossed around on message boards and sports radio as though it's a measurable and quantifiable thing.

[dukelifer]

No one disputes we played terribly and they played lights out.

I just personally think "wanting it more" doesn't mean anything, it doesn't describe anything, and it isn't actionable in practice. I think you can chastise kids in a timeout or at halftime about hustle plays, getting on the floor, scrapping on defense, hitting the boards, and you can lump that into "wanting it" I guess. I think you can get some 19 year old kids fired up talking about desire, and that's good I guess.

To me, the level of desire in a kid's head is unknowable and not generally relevant, but the idea of "wanting it more" gets tossed around on message boards and sports radio as though it's a measurable and quantifiable thing.

I agree it is not quantifiable but I do think that players play one and done games in the tourney differently than games in the regular season. Players play differently when they have lost 2-3 in a row. There is an intensity and focus that comes with such situations. I am not sure what happened against State except that Duke could handle their guards - they are bigger and more physical than Jones and Goldwire and more experienced than Stanley and Moore. It could just be that this is a bad matchup. I suspect Duke will play them better in a week- or at least I hope so.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I agree it is not quantifiable but I do think that players play one and done games in the tourney differently than games in the regular season. Players play differently when they have lost 2-3 in a row. There is an intensity and focus that comes with such situations. I am not sure what happened against State except that Duke could handle their guards - they are bigger and more physical than Jones and Goldwire and more experienced than Stanley and Moore. It could just be that this is a bad matchup. I suspect Duke will play them better in a week- or at least I hope so.

I agree with everything you stated. Especially about playing better in a week.

[Phredd3]

So, um, what does "ugly" actually look like, then?


Well, that was unpleasant. Our worst offensive performance of the season coupled with our worst defensive performance of the season adds up to a 22-point drubbing.

OFFENSE

Possessions: 76.2 (reasonably fast, but should have been in our wheelhouse)
oRtg: 0.87 (0.92 adjusted; just awful, as I said above our worst offense of the season)
eFG%: 40.6% (also awful; 3rd worst eFG of the season)
3pt%: 23.5% (bad)
2pt%: 42.3% (rotten)
%threes: 24.6% (not a lot of threes, but we couldn't hit them anyway)
FT rate: 31.9% (not bad)
OR%: 30.8% (not good but not too terrible)
TO%: 17.1% (not great but acceptable; whoever said if we had under 15 TOs we'd be OK was wrong)
a/to: 0.46:1 (dreadful)
%assisted: 23.1% (ditto)
fast break pts: 25 (37.9% of points; actually our best fb performance of the season)

DEFENSE

dRtg: 1.16 (1.08 adjusted; that's fairly putrid, as I said above our worst defense of the season)
eFG%: 50.7% (not good)
3pt%: 61.5% (appalling; worst opposing 3pt% of the season, by far)
2pt%: 41.4% (actually pretty good)
%threes: 18.3% (very good; 17th time in 26 games that an opponent has taken fewer than 30% of their shots from three)
FT rate: 29.6% (not good, but not awful)
DR%: 64.3% (bad but not bad enough to explain the final score)
TO%: 13.1% (2nd worst defensive TO performance of the season)
a/to: 1:1 (not bad)
%assisted: 31.3% (pretty good)
stl%: 5.2% (blech)
blk%: 7.0% (8.6% of 2pt shots) (somewhat pedestrian)
fast break pts: 21 (23.9% of points; pretty bad)


Our shooting just plain stunk and the rest of our offensive four factors while not dreadful weren't good enough to make up for that. On defense, other than opposing 3pt% and our lack of defensive turnovers, the individual numbers don't look catastrophic but obviously they were, since we gave up an unforgivable 1.16 ppp.

I know it's an overused term around here, but "next play" is about all you can say about this game.

So, does this answer my question, then? You really didn't have to oblige with an answer....

[dukelifer]

I agree it is not quantifiable but I do think that players play one and done games in the tourney differently than games in the regular season. Players play differently when they have lost 2-3 in a row. There is an intensity and focus that comes with such situations. I am not sure what happened against State except that Duke could handle their guards - they are bigger and more physical than Jones and Goldwire and more experienced than Stanley and Moore. It could just be that this is a bad matchup. I suspect Duke will play them better in a week- or at least I hope so.

Should have said “could not handle”

[jimsumner]

I agree that "they wanted it more" is an over-used platitude. But watching this game from courtside there's no doubt in my mind that State came out with more fire, more passion, more intensity, more focus, call it whatever you want. They knocked Duke back early and Duke never really regained its mojo. It sure looked to me like State wanted it more.

Duke is a young team playing for a storied program. Sometimes young players see the storied program on their jerseys and think that means the game doesn't start at 0-0.

Human nature.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

No one disputes we played terribly and they played lights out.

I just personally think "wanting it more" doesn't mean anything, it doesn't describe anything, and it isn't actionable in practice. I think you can chastise kids in a timeout or at halftime about hustle plays, getting on the floor, scrapping on defense, hitting the boards, and you can lump that into "wanting it" I guess. I think you can get some 19 year old kids fired up talking about desire, and that's good I guess.

To me, the level of desire in a kid's head is unknowable and not generally relevant, but the idea of "wanting it more" gets tossed around on message boards and sports radio as though it's a measurable and quantifiable thing.

I don't think something being measurable or quantifiable is relevant to its importance, dittos to "actionable" in practice. It's like the old saying about a rotten egg....can't define it, but can recognize it when I smell it.

I care not that it is tossed about on message boards and sports radio....speaking narrowly to K's comments vis a vis NC State...it was precisely accurate about Duke's performance.

I thought K's analogy on the vide games was on the money here as well. The human nature element is removed from those games, but it's a very powerful and important factor in actual live sporting events. And he has always talked about that aspect of his games and his teams in pressers.

[Kedsy]

I don't think something being measurable or quantifiable is relevant to its importance

Of course it's relevant. It just might not be the whole story, that's all.

[Lar77]

I'm not sure about measurables, etc.

Free throw shooting - has nothing to do with their effort or ours.

We shot 10 of 22.

That's lack of focus.

Bad passes.

Lack of focus.

Our offense was stagnant. Our defense was not moving.

That's on the coaches.

[hustleplays]

I agree that "they wanted it more" is an over-used platitude. But watching this game from courtside there's no doubt in my mind that State came out with more fire, more passion, more intensity, more focus, call it whatever you want. They knocked Duke back early and Duke never really regained its mojo. It sure looked to me like State wanted it more.

Duke is a young team playing for a storied program. Sometimes young players see the storied program on their jerseys and think that means the game doesn't start at 0-0.

Human nature.

Thanks, Jim. You said it better than I did. I'm surprised that several posters would affirm that Coach K is merely using a platitude, not seeing what he says he saw, not saying -- repeatedly, what he actually thought, and misdiagnosing the most important reason -- not the only reason -- we lost to State. Yes, they played terrific, but we played with insufficient "fire, passion, intensity, focus..." As Coach said, they couldn't knock us out of what we were never in. We don't know what's going on in players' heads, but we can see when they play with "fire, etc.".

As to toughness, this team has shown tremendous toughness...at times...and then at other times not so much. It's the on and off quality that is their challenge. I've greatly enjoyed watching this team when they come out with fire and focus. I like that even more than a W at the end of a game. Go Duke!

[arnie]

I'm not sure about measurables, etc.

Free throw shooting - has nothing to do with their effort or ours.

We shot 10 of 22.

That's lack of focus.

Bad passes.

Lack of focus.

Our offense was stagnant. Our defense was not moving.

That's on the coaches.

The missed throws bothered me. Early on, didn’t seem many of the throws had any chance of growing in/we’re offline, etc. Had to be focus?

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Of course it's relevant. It just might not be the whole story, that's all.

Not sure if you understood my point. Tangibles are measurable...intangibles not so much....and yet intangibles are often very important, and in K's opinion, the 'want to' or intensity or whatever you call it was extremely important. I was not saying that tangibles were not important, I was saying intangibles are and the lack of a way to quantify them does not change the fact that they are important.



I'm not sure about measurables, etc.

Free throw shooting - has nothing to do with their effort or ours.

We shot 10 of 22.

That's lack of focus.

Bad passes.

Lack of focus.

Our offense was stagnant. Our defense was not moving.

That's on the coaches.

Oh, I totally disagree that focus and effort are not related. They are absolutely related. In a Venn Diagram, they don't fully overlap, but they overlap a lot.

[Kedsy]

Not sure if you understood my point.

You're right. I didn't.

[UrinalCake]

It feels to me and my untrained eye that there is a vast difference between how this team plays when it is up by 10 versus how it plays when it is down by 10. I know that sounds kind of obvious, and every team looks better when they have a lead, and the fact that they're up is likely an indication that their opponent isn't as good to begin with. But for this team the difference feels more pronounced. Namely, the role players (everyone besides Jones and Carey) simply disappear when there is game pressure on us. When we have a lead they play loose, Alex and Joey and Hurt can take and make threes, Stanley and Moore can attack the rim. But when we're down then the shooters become afraid to shoot for fear of falling further behind or being yanked, and the wings are afraid to dribble the ball. So everything falls on Tre. And while he was able to single-handedly carry us against BC and UNC in crunch time, if we're being honest the best version of this team does not rely on Tre breaking down his man off the dribble, especially at the end of a game in which he has played 40 minutes.

The other tendency when we are trying to make a comeback is to force the ball into Carey, perhaps at the coaches' directive since he's our most efficient scorer and our best chance at putting points on the board. But good grief, some of those entry "passes" were just us handing the ball right to the defender fronting in the post, or lofting the ball over everyone's heads and praying it falls in someone's hands. This has been a problem all season and doesn't seem to be improving. Carey is perhaps the most efficient scorer in the conference, but I would love to know what his points per possession look like if we factored in the fact that we turn the ball over 25-30% of the time that we attempt to get the ball to him? I don't fault him for that at all, it's totally on the guards.

Sorry for the rant, I know everyone is down after that embarrassing loss. Hopefully we come out strong against VT and can put this game behind us and start a new winning streak.

[Kedsy]

It feels to me and my untrained eye that there is a vast difference between how this team plays when it is up by 10 versus how it plays when it is down by 10. I know that sounds kind of obvious, and every team looks better when they have a lead, and the fact that they're up is likely an indication that their opponent isn't as good to begin with. But for this team the difference feels more pronounced. Namely, the role players (everyone besides Jones and Carey) simply disappear when there is game pressure on us. When we have a lead they play loose, Alex and Joey and Hurt can take and make threes, Stanley and Moore can attack the rim. But when we're down then the shooters become afraid to shoot for fear of falling further behind or being yanked, and the wings are afraid to dribble the ball. So everything falls on Tre. And while he was able to single-handedly carry us against BC and UNC in crunch time, if we're being honest the best version of this team does not rely on Tre breaking down his man off the dribble, especially at the end of a game in which he has played 40 minutes.

The other tendency when we are trying to make a comeback is to force the ball into Carey, perhaps at the coaches' directive since he's our most efficient scorer and our best chance at putting points on the board. But good grief, some of those entry "passes" were just us handing the ball right to the defender fronting in the post, or lofting the ball over everyone's heads and praying it falls in someone's hands. This has been a problem all season and doesn't seem to be improving. Carey is perhaps the most efficient scorer in the conference, but I would love to know what his points per possession look like if we factored in the fact that we turn the ball over 25-30% of the time that we attempt to get the ball to him? I don't fault him for that at all, it's totally on the guards.

Sorry for the rant, I know everyone is down after that embarrassing loss. Hopefully we come out strong against VT and can put this game behind us and start a new winning streak.

Duke's biggest deficits of 2019-20 :



Game Deficit Final Swing
Kansas 9 D2 D11
G-town 11 D8 D19
VaTech 12 D14 D26
GaTech 8 D9 D17
Clem 9 C7 D2
L'Ville 15 L6 D9
Syr 7 D9 D16
BC 10 D8 D18
UNC 13 D2 D15
NCSU 27 N22 D5


I'm not really seeing what you've described. The only game that appears close to your description was our most recent one, and even in that one, after getting down by 21 we cut the lead to 11 before it ballooned back up again.

Also, I assume you're exaggerating for effect but just in case, no way we turn the ball over 25% to 30% of the time we try to get it into Vernon.

[UrinalCake]

I'm not really seeing what you've described. The only game that appears close to your description was our most recent one, and even in that one, after getting down by 21 we cut the lead to 11 before it ballooned back up again.

Well like I said, I was relying on the eye test and not hard stats. It feels like when we get down we rely too much on Tre and Carey and our role players fall off in production. The fact that we managed to cut the deficits after falling behind doesn’t really disprove that.

[sagegrouse]

Well like I said, I was relying on the eye test and not hard stats. It feels like when we get down we rely too much on Tre and Carey and our role players fall off in production. The fact that we managed to cut the deficits after falling behind doesn’t really disprove that.

Well, Wednesday night we did rely too much on Tre and Carey. Some of the blame goes to the other players, especially the explosive Cassius, who turned into shrinking violets.

I do give Wendell credit for aggressiveness, but -- oh boy -- did he make some mistakes!!

[Kedsy]

Well like I said, I was relying on the eye test and not hard stats. It feels like when we get down we rely too much on Tre and Carey and our role players fall off in production. The fact that we managed to cut the deficits after falling behind doesn’t really disprove that.

You’ve described a situation that when we face large deficits, all but two players “disappear,” forcing us to use an ineffective strategy of relying on two players. I would posit that since the hole only got deeper in one game out of ten, it suggests that either the role players don’t disappear or the resulting two-player strategy is not ineffective. Or both.

More likely we just had a really bad game against State.

[arnie]

Well like I said, I was relying on the eye test and not hard stats. It feels like when we get down we rely too much on Tre and Carey and our role players fall off in production. The fact that we managed to cut the deficits after falling behind doesn’t really disprove that.

From my eye test, AOC has played significantly better when he’s with other bench players or Duke is up big. Possibly because he knows K not as likely to pull him?

Haven’t noticed the others struggling when Carey/Jones take over, but will pay more attention to that.

[Saratoga2]

From my eye test, AOC has played significantly better when he’s with other bench players or Duke is up big. Possibly because he knows K not as likely to pull him?

Haven’t noticed the others struggling when Carey/Jones take over, but will pay more attention to that.

When Jones tries to take over, few others get to contribute. There are times when he has to assess the likelihood of him being successful on a shot or drive and if it is low, he needs to involve others. He can take people off the drive, but he is not a lights out scorer who can breakdown defenses. Few guards are. My view is that we need Cassius, Alex and Matthew all to think that they need to be more of an offensive threat.

[sagegrouse]

From my eye test, AOC has played significantly better when he’s with other bench players or Duke is up big. Possibly because he knows K not as likely to pull him?

Haven’t noticed the others struggling when Carey/Jones take over, but will pay more attention to that.


When Jones tries to take over, few others get to contribute. There are times when he has to assess the likelihood of him being successful on a shot or drive and if it is low, he needs to involve others. He can take people off the drive, but he is not a lights out scorer who can breakdown defenses. Few guards are. My view is that we need Cassius, Alex and Matthew all to think that they need to be more of an offensive threat.

There ARE periods of certain games when Tre just takes over, but it lasts only a few minutes and he needs help. Aside from Vernon and the energetic but ineffective Wendell Moore, the others seemed to just stand around against State. And that's a long list of very good college hoops players.