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View Full Version : Mid-Season Selection Committee Top 16 is Out



scottdude8
02-08-2020, 01:36 PM
Can be found here: https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2020-02-08/top-16-teams-revealed-ncaa-committees-first-season-look-2020

The keys: Duke is the top No. 2 seed, which gets us placed in the East with San Diego State as our No. 1 seed. In this scenario Maryland would be our No. 3 and Butler our No. 4.

As I’ve mentioned in some of my articles, if things hold form this would likely be the best case scenario for us if we don’t get a 1 seed, so nice to see that the committee is going that route. I was mildly concerned they might place San Diego State ahead of Gonzaga. Now, it’s quite clear that if both hold serve and win out Gonzaga will be the 1 out west. I think we can all agree we’d rather be in a bracket with the Aztecs than the Bulldogs.

Baylor was the consensus No. 1 overall seed which is no surprise. But with Kansas as the third top seed, it’s clear that the path is there for us to live up if/when the Jayhawks lose. With San Diego State as the last top seed it’s also clear that they have no room for error.

If we take care of our business we’ll be in great shape.

DavidBenAkiva
02-08-2020, 01:46 PM
Can be found here: https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2020-02-08/top-16-teams-revealed-ncaa-committees-first-season-look-2020

The keys: Duke is the top No. 2 seed, which gets us placed in the East with San Diego State as our No. 1 seed. In this scenario Maryland would be our No. 3 and Butler our No. 4.

As I’ve mentioned in some of my articles, if things hold form this would likely be the best case scenario for us if we don’t get a 1 seed, so nice to see that the committee is going that route. I was mildly concerned they might place San Diego State ahead of Gonzaga. Now, it’s quite clear that if both hold serve and win out Gonzaga will be the 1 out west. I think we can all agree we’d rather be in a bracket with the Aztecs than the Bulldogs.

Baylor was the consensus No. 1 overall seed which is no surprise. But with Kansas as the third top seed, it’s clear that the path is there for us to live up if/when the Jayhawks lose. With San Diego State as the last top seed it’s also clear that they have no room for error.

If we take care of our business we’ll be in great shape.

This is a good spot for Duke at this moment. One or both of Baylor is going to take a loss. They play each other later this month. And both have to play at West Virginia. If, big if, Duke is able to close out the season in the ACC on a high note, they could jump one for a 1 seed.

Te other big factor in this is Gonzaga. They do not have the cupcake conference schedule of normal years. They play at Saint Mary's later today, a game they are only favored by about 3 points. Later in the month, they travel to BYU, a team that is even better than Saint Mary's. If Gonzaga loses one or both of those, I think SDSU slides over to the West #1 seed and Duke is the East #1.

Dukehk
02-08-2020, 02:58 PM
Can be found here: https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2020-02-08/top-16-teams-revealed-ncaa-committees-first-season-look-2020

The keys: Duke is the top No. 2 seed, which gets us placed in the East with San Diego State as our No. 1 seed. In this scenario Maryland would be our No. 3 and Butler our No. 4.

As I’ve mentioned in some of my articles, if things hold form this would likely be the best case scenario for us if we don’t get a 1 seed, so nice to see that the committee is going that route. I was mildly concerned they might place San Diego State ahead of Gonzaga. Now, it’s quite clear that if both hold serve and win out Gonzaga will be the 1 out west. I think we can all agree we’d rather be in a bracket with the Aztecs than the Bulldogs.

Baylor was the consensus No. 1 overall seed which is no surprise. But with Kansas as the third top seed, it’s clear that the path is there for us to live up if/when the Jayhawks lose. With San Diego State as the last top seed it’s also clear that they have no room for error.

If we take care of our business we’ll be in great shape.

SDSU hasn't played a single rank team this entire season.

Honestly not sure why they are a one seed. We should be there or will be once they lose.

SCMatt33
02-08-2020, 03:11 PM
A couple of things to add. Kevin White, when asked, said there was a wide gap after San Diego State. I think that implies there’s no room for Duke to pass them or Gonzaga without one of them slipping up. I’d also guess that Duke would need to win out to pass the Zags if they picked up exactly one more loss. I personally think no matter what happens in front of Duke, they likely can’t get a 1 picking up more than one loss and would need significant help to get one with one more loss. That’s just life in the ACC this year, there aren’t enough good wins out there for a 5 loss one seed and even 4 losses needs a bit of help.

A quick correction to the original post, Kansas was number 2 overall, not 3. If Kansas and Baylor only lose two total games (they’re upcoming rematch and one of them losing in the B12 tourney, I don’t see Duke passing either, unless it’s Kansas picking up both losses. Kansas still has tough trips to West Virginia and Texas Tech aside from the one to Waco and presumably tough Big 12 tourney matchups, so Kansas picking up 2 losses is not all that unlikely, but the other side is that if they manage that schedule with just one more loss, I can’t see even a 3 loss Duke team passing them even with the H2H win.

Right now, Duke is in a good spot to get NY, but there are some dangers. The first is that, while the rest of the current 2 seeds would have Indy as their preference (Dayton, Louisville and West Virginia), they’d also all have NY as their second choice. Additionally, most of the current three seeds would prefer NY. This has several implications. First, Duke could afford to drop only as far as 6 overall and still get NY. If Duke drops to 7, Someone else is getting NY as either their first or second choice before Duke is slotted. Second, if KU climbs up to 1 overall, Duke could get bounced from NY even as 6 overall, because bracketing rules would discourage the committee from sending 5 overall to the same region, so a team like Louisville, Dayton or WVU could get shipped to NY just to avoid that. This scenario could also see Duke getting sent to Indy to play number 1 overall Kansas as 6 overall, though it’s possible they’d ship Duke to Houston instead and and let whoever’s 7 go to Indy, especially a team like WVU, Dayton or Louisville.

Also, while the good news is that Duke doesn’t have much competition this year for Greensboro, the only other current top 4 seed that would have that as a close destination would be Maryland, so if you have Greensboro tickets, be prepared for that one, unless one of us falls out of protected seed range.

MChambers
02-08-2020, 05:18 PM
Also, while the good news is that Duke doesn’t have much competition this year for Greensboro, the only other current top 4 seed that would have that as a close destination would be Maryland, so if you have Greensboro tickets, be prepared for that one, unless one of us falls out of protected seed range.

Why would a team from Alaska play in Greensboro?

duke2x
02-09-2020, 12:09 AM
Also, while the good news is that Duke doesn’t have much competition this year for Greensboro, the only other current top 4 seed that would have that as a close destination would be Maryland, so if you have Greensboro tickets, be prepared for that one, unless one of us falls out of protected seed range.

Unless MD rises to a 3 seed, Greensboro is the 3rd choice for a lot of Big 10/Dayton/UK/Louisville/WVA group over Albany. They all can't play in St. Louis and Cleveland. At your own risk you probably can buy Greensboro tickets very soon. I already bought mine in October.

SCMatt33
02-09-2020, 12:58 AM
Unless MD rises to a 3 seed, Greensboro is the 3rd choice for a lot of Big 10/Dayton/UK/Louisville/WVA group over Albany. They all can't play in St. Louis and Cleveland. At your own risk you probably can buy Greensboro tickets very soon. I already bought mine in October.

Right now, MD at 9 overall is the only B1G team in the top 16 picture with MSU barely in this morning and then promptly losing and UK was just on the outside. Oregon just lost so if they don’t climb back up to a top 4, that would make two teams have to travel out West. But there are definitely permutations where a 4 seeded Maryland gets Greensboro. Not a guarantee, but not unlikely either. Nova and Seton Hall both would go to Albany, FSU, Auburn and LSU (who was just on the outside of the top 16) would likely all prefer Tampa. Baylor is the real wild card. If they keep 1 overall, they can choose, and I’d bet they’d choose St Louis to stay away from the Kansas fans with no close option for them. Baylor in St Louis would really put a crunch on it by leaving another Omaha spot open, so it would be tough to see a 4 seeded Maryland get Greensboro in that scenario, but still, it’s weird to even be discussing 3/4 seeds in Greensboro or teams ending up there as a 3rd choice.

brevity
02-09-2020, 02:35 AM
The question we should be asking is, “What would it take to keep Maryland out of Greensboro?”

1. Maryland collapses in the next few weeks, falling to the 5 seed line or lower.

2. Auburn finishes higher than Maryland in the 1-68 hierarchy, but lower than two teams going to Tampa. This seems extremely unlikely because there is no second team (after FSU) that fits.

3. Virginia wins out, including the ACC Tournament, and finishes higher than Maryland. Not a great alternative because it requires Duke to lose twice.

4. Maybe a glut in Albany? Villanova, Seton Hall, and Penn State all jump ahead of Maryland.

The short answer is that it would take a lot. Maryland is likely going to Greensboro whether a 1, 2, 3, or 4 seed, and even if they slip to a 5 or worse, there’s nothing to stop the Selection Committee from sending them to Greensboro as part of some other team’s pod.

duke2x
02-09-2020, 04:20 PM
Having been to College Park for Duke basketball games, my past experience with Louisville, KY, and WVA fans would tell you they are equal to or worse than MD fans. MD just has more publicity here because of the battery toss. That 2nd team won't be obvious until the night before the brackets, but it's safe to assume they won't be benign like TN, Rocky Top notwithstanding.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
02-09-2020, 04:33 PM
Having been to College Park for Duke basketball games, my past experience with Louisville, KY, and WVA fans would tell you they are equal to or worse than MD fans. MD just has more publicity here because of the battery toss. That 2nd team won't be obvious until the night before the brackets, but it's safe to assume they won't be benign like TN, Rocky Top notwithstanding.

Maryland fans had their claws out for Duke, but that was nearly twenty years and a conference ago. I doubt that the current students or fan base would be as riled up.

duke2x
02-09-2020, 04:38 PM
Maryland fans had their claws out for Duke, but that was nearly twenty years and a conference ago. I doubt that the current students or fan base would be as riled up.

It was still evident at the end of the Gary era. MD also has a brutal schedule to end the year. I could very easily see them being our 2nd round opponent if they can't shoehorn Wojo into that spot.

scottdude8
02-10-2020, 12:36 PM
The question we should be asking is, “What would it take to keep Maryland out of Greensboro?”

1. Maryland collapses in the next few weeks, falling to the 5 seed line or lower.

2. Auburn finishes higher than Maryland in the 1-68 hierarchy, but lower than two teams going to Tampa. This seems extremely unlikely because there is no second team (after FSU) that fits.

3. Virginia wins out, including the ACC Tournament, and finishes higher than Maryland. Not a great alternative because it requires Duke to lose twice.

4. Maybe a glut in Albany? Villanova, Seton Hall, and Penn State all jump ahead of Maryland.

The short answer is that it would take a lot. Maryland is likely going to Greensboro whether a 1, 2, 3, or 4 seed, and even if they slip to a 5 or worse, there’s nothing to stop the Selection Committee from sending them to Greensboro as part of some other team’s pod.

It's worth noting that Maryland's current ranking may be a bit inflated by a relatively easy early schedule in the B1G. The Terps have two games against MSU remaining, three additional challenging road games against teams who may need a victory for their tourney resumes (Ohio State, Rutgers, and Minnesota), and end the year against a Michigan team that looked solid this weekend with the return of Isaiah Livers. It's not out of the realm of possibility that Maryland loses 4+ more regular season games.

sagegrouse
02-10-2020, 04:31 PM
SDSU hasn't played a single rank team this entire season.

Honestly not sure why they are a one seed. We should be there or will be once they lose.

Creighton is now #23 but may not have been ranked when it lost by a bunch to the Aztecs.