MBB: Duke @ UNC (Sat 2/8 6:00 pm, ESPN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[DavidBenAkiva]

Duke escaped Chestnut Hill with a victory. Somehow. Now the Blue Devils turn their full attention to finish it's 3rd consecutive road game by making a familiar stop against a foe in an unfamiliar position. UNC is in the midst of a nightmare season, having dropped to 10-12 after beginning the year ranked in the top 10 and with a pair of highly touted recruits and respected graduate transfers. Injuries to key players and ineffectiveness have plagued the Tar Heels. The latter has certainly been delightful to many denizens of this board.

UNC is headlined by 6'3" FR G Cole Anthony, the highly touted son of former UNLV Runnin' Rebel Greg Anthony. Cole has a lot of talent and burst onto the scene with a 34-point performance in his first collegiate game against Notre Dame. It has been going downhill since that auspicious debut. He has been plagued by ineffectiveness, shooting under 40% from inside the arc, and generating more turnovers than assists while operating with the ball in his hands frequently. Against Florida State on Monday night, Anthony shot just 5-22 from the floor and had 3 turnovers to go along with 3 steals. He does rebound the ball quite well for a guard. He also missed a big stretch of the season with a knee injury. Anthony isn't getting much help from his teammates.

Part of that is health. Fellow FR G Anthony Harris showed promise after sitting out the early part of the season. He then tore the ACL in his right knee and is out for the rest of the season. SR G Brandon Robinson has been one of the better shooters on the team and a reliable presence when he has been healthy enough to play. He sat our Monday's game is and is unlikely to play this weekend. Grad transfer G Christian Keeling was expected to be a major contributor but has been woeful all year, shooting just 21.4% from 3 and less than 60% from the free throw line while scoring under 5 points per game. The two guards that will see the court with Keeling are JR G Andrew Platek (6'4"), a Luke Maye lookalike that has been having a similar season to Keeling and FR G Jeremiah Francis (6'0"). None of these guards are consistently scoring or providing much of a positive contribution. I am trying to respect the opponent (we all know I have discounted UNC's chances over the years) but it is hard to be charitable and honest at the same time. Platek, Francis, and Keeling have been subpar.

Up front, the story has been a little better. JR F Garrison Brooks has developed into a bright spot for the Tar Heels. He might be the only one. The big man has moved to the PF spot after spending 2 years as an undersized C and glue guy in his first two years at UNC. Brooks has figured out how to score around the rim pretty well, although he is not able to stretch the floor with a jumper and is making less than 60% of his FT attempts on the year. He is a hustle guy and very good rebounder. He also seems to be developing an understanding of how to use his body and angles to score when he is near the rim. Up front, UNC also starts FR C Armando Bacot. The former McDonald's All-American has been ok, averaging 10.5 points, 8 rebounds, an 1.5 blocks a game. He is the sole shot blocking presence on the team. In lieu of adequate guard play, Bacot has not been the interior presence on either offense or defense UNC needed this year to compensate. He has had good games at times, but overall is not scoring the ball efficiently or deterring teams from driving to the hoop. He might be a good player in a few years if he stays.

On the wings, UNC relies on SO G/F Rechon "Leaky" Black (6'8") to provide scoring. He has had an up-and-down year with injuries and is not providing the scoring or shooting presence UNC needs. His shot has regressed from a promising freshman season. He has shot the ball a little better recently and has his 3 double-digit scoring games on the season all within the past 5 games. Grad transfer Justin Pierce (6'7") also plays minutes at the wing or as a backup PF. He was supposed to be a stretch-4 but has been unable to stretch defenses this year.

UNC is an extremely bad shooting team overall, having just a 45.3% eFG%, good for 330th in the nation out of 353 teams. They are awful from behind the arc, at the line, and only marginally better inside the arc. As is the way of things in Chapel Hill, they are a good team on the offensive glass and pretty good on the defensive glass, too. On defense, UNC rebounds the ball well. They do not force turnovers. Teams can run their offense against them. They are better on defense than on offense, but only so-so defending the opposing team.

There are not many numbers or stories that suggest that this UNC team is a threat. They don't shoot. They don't block shots. They don't force turnovers. They don't have much depth this on account of all the injuries. But this is THE GAME. This terrible season can be saved by winning this one game in front of the fans. Cole Anthony is back and ready to prove that he can be that all-everything player he was supposed to be before the year fell off the rails. Ol' Roy is ready to talk about how, in spite of everything else he has said, he really loves this team because they finally figured out how to give effort to compensate for their other flaws. The fans are ready to say "well, at least we beat PUKE when they were supposed to be good!" If Duke shows up and doesn't match that intensity, things could go south in a hurry. Never let a bad team think they can play with you.

[BD80]

Go to Hell carolina. Nuff said.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Borrowed from the latest Status Check thread!


GO TO HELL carolina! GO TO HELL!
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GO TO HELL carolina! GO TO HELL!
GO TO HELL carolina! GO TO HELL!
GO TO HELL carolina! GO TO HELL!
GO TO HELL carolina! GO TO HELL!
GO TO HELL carolina! GO TO HELL!
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[rocketeli]

Even though intellectually I knew it would be better for Duke if UNC beat FSU, I couldn't help rooting for FSU. I'm not sure what's going on with UNC. Maybe Inside Carolina could tell me? Where's that Wheat guy? But this was the game log of their activity at the end of the FSU game. They took a time out at :52 (don't know why--maybe a player called it to avoid a held ball?) and then it went like this(this is just UNC action not FSU): Cole Anthony missed jumper, foul on Cole Anthony, Brooks dunk with assist from Anthony, foul on Leaky Black, Cole Anthony missed jumper, Cole Anthony offensive rebound, Cole Anthony missed layup, Justin Pierce offensive rebound, missed layup.
Trigger warning: if you are offended by discussions of poor shooting don't read any further. Cole Anthony has not shot the ball well since returning from his injury. He is 10-37 (5-18 from three) for 27/28%. Of course, if things take their usual course he'll go 8-11 from three against Duke. Even so, is it really in the Cheaters best interest to let him run around like he's appearing in a high school all-star game?

[OldPhiKap]

Classic trap game, playing a hungry cellar-dweller on the road before the big game Monday gainst the ‘Noles. Gotta stay focused for this one.

[Rogue]

9f
9f
9f
9f

[CoachKville13]

Classic trap game, playing a hungry cellar-dweller on the road before the big game Monday gainst the ‘Noles. Gotta stay focused for this one.

UNC is not a classic trap game, regardless of record.

[dukelifer]

UNC is not a classic trap game, regardless of record.

Pretty sure that was a joke

[jv001]

If our guys comes out like they did against BC and Uncheat makes a few 3s and get's out to an early lead, then all bets are off. Like DAVIDBEN said, it's THEGAME for the cheats and they would love to upset the Blue Devils. I expect the law of averages to not exist in this game for their shooters. I hope Coach K works the guys extra hard this week in preparation for this game. I want to see old roy in his post game press conference, bemoaning how his team did not listen to him and hear him tell everyone this team is not talented. Well, except Anthony.

GTHC!!!

GODUKE!!!!

[Troublemaker]

That Brandon Robinson injury is huge for this game, as he's their best and most prolific 3-pt shooter. If it's true that he's out 2-4 weeks (per TV announcers per Roy), then I think Duke will end up winning by several possessions, i.e. it won't end up a sweat by the end of the game. But if this is UNC playing games with injuries, and Robinson shows up healthy, I think this game is a tossup.

[budwom]

Well, we shouldn't be overconfident after that performance.

[OldPhiKap]

That Brandon Robinson injury is huge for this game, as he's their best and most prolific 3-pt shooter. If it's true that he's out 2-4 weeks (per TV announcers per Roy), then I think Duke will end up winning by several possessions, i.e. it won't end up a sweat by the end of the game. But if this is UNC playing games with injuries, and Robinson shows up healthy, I think this game is a tossup.

Christian Keeling played pretty well filling in for BRob. Pierce not so much. But combined they were 2-5 from downtown (40%) while the rest of the team was 4-14 (28.6%).

Will be interested to see how Tre does defending Anthony. Cole may not be NBA-ready yet but he is an NBA-level talent. This will be a challenge.

[Jaks19]

Although UNC's record and performance has not been what anyone expected this year, they are a capable team that could give Duke an L.

Cole Anthony is a scorer and if Tre doesn't man up his D than Cole could score 30+. I am sure the staff and Tre are very aware of his, and JGold's D duties on Cole.

Also, the UNC bigs are a tough match up for the Duke bigs. Hurt will need to be a man and Duke will have to rely on Javin and Jack to support the D. My guess is that UNC will go right at the Duke bigs and try to get Carey into foul trouble.

Overall, I think Duke is a much better team but this game at UNC could result in an L if Duke doesn't come out locked in on D and making shots/layups.

[moonpie23]

Although UNC's record and performance has not been what anyone expected this year, they are a capable team that could give Duke an L.

Cole Anthony is a scorer and if Tre doesn't man up his D than Cole could score 30+. I am sure the staff and Tre are very aware of his, and JGold's D duties on Cole.

Also, the UNC bigs are a tough match up for the Duke bigs. Hurt will need to be a man and Duke will have to rely on Javin and Jack to support the D. My guess is that UNC will go right at the Duke bigs and try to get Carey into foul trouble.

Overall, I think Duke is a much better team but this game at UNC could result in an L if Duke doesn't come out locked in on D and making shots/layups.

this all day....i hate when a team is sub=par for the year and then has a max output effort against us......that's what we should expect..


i don't like it..

[jv001]

I could see Coach K going zone and some trapping in this game to deny Anthony getting the ball early in the shot clock. At least Coach K gave ole roy something else to think about after last night. Then again maybe Coach K had rather Cole be a stopper of the offense and let him go one on one against Tre. My main concern is a slow start that gets the idiot cheat fans get into a frenzy.

GoDuke!

[Jaks19]

It's the ACC... all teams are capable of winning at home

[gam7]

I put together a little highlight video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A4J_tyrykSc) before a UNC game about three years ago -- meaning in the BZ (before Zion) era -- that gets me a little fired up around this time of year. Enjoy!

[CDu]

This UNC team is far less deep and less talented than previous iterations. Especially so if Brandon Robinson misses the game. They don't have the waves and waves of bodies to throw at opponents as in years past.

Bigs: As you know, UNC prefers to deploy two bigs at a time. This season's starting lineup is no different in that regard. They have two guys who have been very productive this season. Armando Bacot (6'10", 230lb) is technically the center, but those labels are kind of blurred with UNC. Bacot looks bigger than his 230 suggests, with a sturdy base. He's not overly explosive or quick, but he's a good effort player with some polish around the rim. He's got long arms and blocks some shots, but his biggest attribute is his pounding of the glass. Bacot pairs with Garrison Brooks (6'9", 235lb). Brooks seems way more run/jump athletic, and he has developed into a really dangerous finisher for the Heels. He helped carry them while Anthony was injured, averaging 19 and 10 over the 11 games. Brooks is not a great shooter, but he is tenacious and aggressive and opportunistic. He hasn't yet figured out how to play with Anthony, but if he does then the Heels could have a pretty dangerous 1-2 punch. Brooks is the matchup I'm concerned about, as we don't really have a clear match for him. He may overpower and outathlete Hurt, and his size may be problematic for White or Moore. If we can contain him, that will go a long way towards winning. The challenge for UNC is that they don't really have anyone else inside. For long stretches of the game, they'll have to go with one of these two and hope that their big wings can hold up. So that helps mitigate some of the concerns about Brooks (not all, but some). And if those two get in foul trouble, things get really dicey. In a pinch, Brandon Huffman (6'10", 255lb) can come in. But he's basically just an unskilled mauler and doesn't play much. But I could see him stealing a few minutes against Carey if foul trouble causes the Heels trouble.

Forwards: Justin Pierce (6'7", 210lb) is the primary option off the bench at forward. Pierce was a star at George Mason, but hasn't really panned out for the Heels. He's a versatile combo wing forward, with solid rebounding ability and a better shooting touch than his 26% 3pt shooting suggests. He's tough and surprisingly athleticism (kind of like Jack White but more aggressive with the ball in his hands), with some skill to boot. But for whatever reason, he hasn't been able to translate his skills from George Mason to UNC. Part of it may be that he has been a bit neutered by UNC's system, which de-emphasizes wing playmaking. Part of it may just be the increase in quality of opponents. Let's hope it continues.

Wings: There are a bunch of guys here. Brandon Robinson (6'5", 175lb) is the most productive of the bunch. After toiling in anonymity a la Alex O'Connell the past 3 years, Robinson has really emerged as a senior. He's averaging 13 ppg and shooting 35% from 3. He's primarily a 3pt shooter, though he can score inside the paint too. He's not a bad ballhandler, although he's not superlative there. Pretty much a system wing for UNC, but he fits the system well. Unfortunately for the Heels, he suffered an ankle injury late against BC. If he's out (or in but hobbled), the Heels get much less potent. Alongside Robinson is Leaky Black (6'8", 195lb). Black is a decent shooter (not shooting well this year, but is more capable than his stats suggest), good athlete, solid ballhandler, and fairly effective attacking off the dribble. Black will initiate offense a decent amount when he's in the half court, especially so when Anthony is out. His length and skill level can be problematic for opponents as he's a bit unorthodox. Containing him without having to sell out on help defense will go a long way towards the win. If Robinson is out, Andrew Platek (6'4", 200lb) will likely start. Platek is a scrappy but limited player. He isn't quick, doesn't jump well, and isn't a strong ballhandler. He can shoot if left open, but otherwise doesn't provide any threat offensively. He is basically minutes/position filler. Lastly, Christian Keeling (6'3", 180lb) is a combo guard off the bench. Like Pierce, Keeling was a multi-year star at a small school before grad transferring to UNC. And like Pierce, he hasn't seen his skills translate to the major conference level yet. He was terrific against FSU though, and can provide a scoring spark off the bench at all 3 levels when he is playing well.

Guards: The Heels pretty much just have one: Cole Anthony (6'3", 190lb). Anthony is a true lead guard. He's pretty quick and has solid leaping ability, and is pretty strong with the dribble. He's also a really good shooter, though he makes some questionable/bad choices with shot selection. A really good free throw shooter and 3pt shooter, and really capable of attacking off the dribble, but he's been too willing to settle for difficult shots off the dribble (contested midrange, fadeaways, leaners). When he's on, he's hitting 3s and drawing fouls with drives to the rim. He doesn't pass nearly as well as you would like from a PG, having been a score-first guard his entire career. For a team that struggles to create their own shots from other spots, that's been a problem for them. He ends up taking a high volume of shots, often bad ones, and doesn't get his teammates involved enough. I think it's a good matchup for Jones, though, becaue while Anthony is quick he isn't uber-quick to the point that Jones can't stay with him. But that will be a key test. If Jones can force Anthony into a ~6-20 night, we should be in good shape.

But, as always with the Heels, the key to victory is limiting transition opportunities for them and limiting their offensive rebounds. In the half-court, they are fairly pedestrian... until the shot goes up. At that point, they are a terrific offensive rebounding team. We need to hold our own on the glass with them, and not allow easy buckets that build their confidence.

On paper, it should be a comfortable (~10pt) win for us. Hopefully we show up ready to compete from the opening whistle, and play with the type of focus we showed early in the season.

[UrinalCake]

Same old story for Duke - going up against a bottom feeder team who will play lights out because they know a victory over us would be the highlight of their season and the only chance they have at possibly making the tournament.

[Jaks19]

UNC is a very good rebounding team on both ends which is where the issues begins... Matt Hurt. In my eyes, he is the key. If he can knock down some shots, and actually be vested in helping out on the boards and in the paint defensively, then the UNC bigs won't have a big night. Brooks has really come on this season and is arguably their most important player this year. A rotation of Hurt, Javin and Jack on him could keep him in check. Maybe Brooks defensing away from the basket will limit his ability to grab rebounds. Javin and Jack need to stay away from silly fouls and again Hurt must man up and D up.

Duke's wing players of Moore, Stanley, AOC, and Joey all need nights where they have good contributions. UNC doesn't have an answer for Stanley and if AOC and Joey can make shots, this will be a huge swing in Duke's favor.

[dukebluesincebirth]

Anyone know if Robinson is expected to play? I think he makes a difference for them if he's hitting shots, and adds another shooter that Duke must defend. If he does not play, I think K can mix in some zone to keep them off balance. Also, I'm looking forward to the Vernon - Bacot matchup. Vernon needs to stay out of foul trouble. This game makes me very nervous after recent performances by Duke. This would be a great game to get back into the top form we were in a few weeks ago!

[AGDukesky]

Same old story for Duke - going up against a bottom feeder team who will play lights out because they know a victory over us would be the highlight of their season and the only chance they have at possibly making the tournament.

Exactly. I just hope the officiating is reasonable and we are healthy before, during, and after the game...

[budwom]

It's the ACC... all teams are capable of winning at home

It's a lesson too often forgotten...

[jamos14]

I haven't watched UNC play with exception of a few minutes. In reading about Cole Anthony, he sounds like college version of Austin Rivers. Is that a good comparison for him?

[OldPhiKap]

I haven't watched UNC play with exception of a few minutes. In reading about Cole Anthony, he sounds like college version of Austin Rivers. Is that a good comparison for him?

Broadly speaking, it is for me.

[Reddevil]

I would be tempted to throw Cassius at Anthony occasionally. This would spread fouls evenly between Cassius and Tre (because....dean's myth center), and keep him guessing. Goldwire too of course. Wear him out!

[Kedsy]

It's the ACC... all teams are capable of winning at home


Same old story for Duke - going up against a bottom feeder team who will play lights out because they know a victory over us would be the highlight of their season and the only chance they have at possibly making the tournament.

The above quotes are both true. But here's the thing: if we were going to Pitt or Georgia Tech (both of which are rated higher than UNC in both Pomeroy and Torvik), would people be as nervous as they seem to be in this thread?

FWIW, Pomeroy ranks all of the following as better teams than UNC (caveat that UNC with Anthony is better than the ratings which include him in only half the games): Northern Colorado, Davidson, Boise State, San Francisco, Loyola-Chicago, North Texas, SMU, DePaul, UNCG, Vermont, ETSU, Liberty, Richmond, Tulsa, and Yale, among many other teams. Now, we lost to SF Austin at home, so there's nothing to say we might not lose to a team of this caliber on the road, but still.

Finally, for those who say, "It's Duke/UNC! Throw the records out the window," I will make my annual reminder that history does not support trashing the record book. Since Coach K has been here, Duke has played UNC 22 times when one team is top 10 and the other is unranked. In those games, the top 10 team's record is 18-4.

You may now go back to your regularly scheduled angst.

[whereinthehellami]

I would be tempted to throw Cassius at Anthony occasionally. This would spread fouls evenly between Cassius and Tre (because...dean's myth center), and keep him guessing. Goldwire too of course. Wear him out!

I agree. I usually watch all UNC losses, just the way I roll, so I've seen a lot of them this year. Heels yeah!

Anthony is really struggling with fitting into the team. He was before the injury and is struggling even more after the injury. The relentless pressure and having different guys come at him would pay big dividends. It is really something to see how ball dominant he is and how the team defers to him and is constantly looking for him. Very much like Austin Rivers in that regard.

[cato]

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[Kedsy]

Since Coach K has been here, Duke has played UNC 22 times when one team is top 10 and the other is unranked. In those games, the top 10 team's record is 18-4.

For comparison's sake, in the last 10 years (including this season), when Duke is top 10 and our ACC opponent is unranked, our record is 88-22 (including ACC games and ACC tournament games), for a winning percentage of .800, which is a little worse than the .818 success rate that a top 10 Duke/UNC team has over an unranked UNC/Duke team during Coach K's tenure.

I'm not willing to track Duke's overall such record since 1980-81, but my guess is the numbers will be similar, since basically in all college basketball a top 10 team will beat an unranked team between 80% and 85% of the time (a little better in non-conference, non-tournament games, possibly because the vast majority of such games are played on the home court of the top 10 team).

What makes Duke/UNC so special is that both teams are usually really good. But when that's not true, there's nothing to support the idea that in the rivalry the lesser team does better than other non-rival lesser teams might do.

[Jaks19]

Thanks for sharing some good stats but again, this is going to be a tough game; especially because it is at UNC.

2 things stand out the most for me:
1- How Duke manages Cole Anthony
2- How Duke manages the UNC bigs

After that, the Duke roster consistent of just better players

[Troublemaker]

For comparison's sake, in the last 10 years (including this season), when Duke is top 10 and our ACC opponent is unranked, our record is 88-22 (including ACC games and ACC tournament games), for a winning percentage of .800, which is a little worse than the .818 success rate that a top 10 Duke/UNC team has over an unranked UNC/Duke team during Coach K's tenure.

I'm not willing to track Duke's overall such record since 1980-81, but my guess is the numbers will be similar, since basically in all college basketball a top 10 team will beat an unranked team between 80% and 85% of the time (a little better in non-conference, non-tournament games, possibly because the vast majority of such games are played on the home court of the top 10 team).

What makes Duke/UNC so special is that both teams are usually really good. But when that's not true, there's nothing to support the idea that in the rivalry the lesser team does better than other non-rival lesser teams might do.

I largely agree with you but with the caveat that Brandon Robinson really has to be out. I would say UNC's biggest issue this season is their lack of depth, which is very untypical for Roy, but there it is. UNC's bench players mostly stink, and that's been exacerbated by all the injuries they've suffered this season.

However, if you take only the games where UNC is able to start Anthony, Robinson, Black, Brooks, and Bacot, they're a decent team at least. For example, that starting five was available for their three Bahamas (Atlantis) games, which were a win over kenpom #21 Oregon, a win over #47 Alabama, and a loss to #26 Michigan. That's not a championship contending UNC team but it's also not a UNC team that's going to miss the tournament.

So, overall, I think I summarized it upthread well. If Robinson plays, UNC basically has the quality of a 9-seed or so in the NCAA tourney. And a road game at a 9-seed is going to be tough. If Robinson doesn't play, then UNC is not an NCAA tourney team and we should win by a few possessions.

[Jaks19]

is there any reports on if Robinson is or isn't going to play? I am sure it will be a game time decision and he will attempt to play.

[Kedsy]

However, if you take only the games where UNC is able to start Anthony, Robinson, Black, Brooks, and Bacot, they're a decent team at least. For example, that starting five was available for their three Bahamas (Atlantis) games, which were a win over kenpom #21 Oregon, a win over #47 Alabama, and a loss to #26 Michigan. That's not a championship contending UNC team but it's also not a UNC team that's going to miss the tournament.

The five guys you mention all played 25+ minutes in a home loss to BC. No way to know for sure, but I think UNC has earned being unranked. Playing an ACC road game is almost never a gimme, but I'm not more worried about this game than I am about any other ACC road game.

[tbyers11]

is there any reports on if Robinson is or isn't going to play? I am sure it will be a game time decision and he will attempt to play.

The ESPN announcers stated during the FSU game that they were told by the UNC staff that Robinson would be out 2-4 weeks with the injury. Which would presumably lead him to miss the Duke game at 1 week after the injury.

However, I have not seen written confirmation of this timeline anywhere.

[DukeFanSince1990]

I haven't watched UNC play with exception of a few minutes. In reading about Cole Anthony, he sounds like college version of Austin Rivers. Is that a good comparison for him?

Austin passed more

[jv001]

The ESPN announcers stated during the FSU game that they were told by the UNC staff that Robinson would be out 2-4 weeks with the injury. Which would presumably lead him to miss the Duke game at 1 week after the injury.

However, I have not seen written confirmation of this timeline anywhere.

I wouldn't believe the lying cheats either way. GTHC!!

GoDuke!

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Austin passed more

Wow!

[OldPhiKap]

Austin passed more


Wow!

. . . And Cole is the point guard.

[gofurman]

I respect every opponent. We were a 15 pt fav at BC.. BC coulda won easily w a few 3 balls.

[dukelifer]

Same old story for Duke - going up against a bottom feeder team who will play lights out because they know a victory over us would be the highlight of their season and the only chance they have at possibly making the tournament.

Well not the same old story- a huge rivalry game where anything can happen. Duke will be up for this one- but how far up. UNC is good enough to beat Duke in a close game- Duke needs to shoot the ball well and be attentive on D. I am hoping Duke can wear them down and win at the end. UNC has faded at the end of games. Should be a good one. 1pt or 10pts- get out of there and move on.

[ChillinDuke]

The five guys you mention all played 25+ minutes in a home loss to BC. No way to know for sure, but I think UNC has earned being unranked. Playing an ACC road game is almost never a gimme, but I'm not more worried about this game than I am about any other ACC road game.

I get your analysis. Presuming all your numbers are correct, it's a quantitatively sound and reasonable view.

But let's get qualitative for a second. This feels like a match-up that doesn't have great comps. In 17 seasons with Roy Williams at the helm, the Tar Heels have missed the NCAAT only once (82-50; had to say it). And in that season, they had Ed Davis sidelined for a little less than half the year - perhaps an analogue for Cole Anthony's injury this year. But in 2010 they still had pretty good cohesion with Larry Drew-Marcus Ginyard-Will Graves-John Henson-Deon Thompson starting 150 out of 185 available starts (173 out of 185 if you add in Ed Davis in John Henson's spot). In that disastrous season, UNC had better starting lineup cohesion than they've had thus far this year. Further, in that season they started 11-4 in the non-con and beat Va Tech to go 12-4 (1-0) before the wheels came off to finish 16-15 (5-11). So by those two metrics, for whatever they're worth, I'd argue this year's UNC team is the worst of Roy's tenure.

Given that, the game on Saturday is realistically one of three major things UNC (and its fans) has left to play for this year: home vs Duke, away at Duke, and the ACCT to send up a Hail Mary to get into the Tourney. How does that back-against-the-wall mentality translate into what happens in this game? If you believe that humans react to incentives (and I do), then this strikes me as a real strong incentive.

UNC is arguably backed into an even deeper, darker corner than they were when we played at UNC in 2010. At the time, UNC came in 13-10 (2-6) with wins over Sweet 16-bound Ohio State, Final Four-bound Michigan State, and a 2-point loss on the road at Elite Eight-bound Kentucky that suffered only 2 losses all season. In that Duke @ UNC game, Duke won 64-54, but it was a 1-point game with under 6 minutes to play. At the time, UNC appeared to be in directionally stronger shape than they are now, standing at today.

So while I think your math and numbers tell us something, I do think the context matters as well. I don't think it's possible to have a good sense for qualitative concerns in this situation - because we've never seen this level of disparity, at least recently. And for that reason, I find it reasonable for Duke fans to show angst that isn't supported by numbers. This is arguably the most lopsided Duke-UNC matchup in Roy Williams' 17 years at UNC. We're in uncharted waters. And uncharted waters can be scary.

- Chillin

[Kedsy]

. . . And Cole is the point guard.

It's also not true. Austin Rivers had an assist% of 13.0%. Anthony's assist% is 22.8%.


Well not the same old story- a huge rivalry game where anything can happen.

While I suppose anything can happen, the question should be "is it likely to happen," and the answer is no.

(See my earlier posts for my rationale.)


I get your analysis. Presuming all your numbers are correct, it's a quantitatively sound and reasonable view.

But let's get qualitative for a second. This feels like a match-up that doesn't have great comps. In 17 seasons with Roy Williams at the helm, the Tar Heels have missed the NCAAT only once (82-50; had to say it). And in that season, they had Ed Davis sidelined for a little less than half the year - perhaps an analogue for Cole Anthony's injury this year. But in 2010 they still had pretty good cohesion with Larry Drew-Marcus Ginyard-Will Graves-John Henson-Deon Thompson starting 150 out of 185 available starts (173 out of 185 if you add in Ed Davis in John Henson's spot). In that disastrous season, UNC had better starting lineup cohesion than they've had thus far this year. Further, in that season they started 11-4 in the non-con and beat Va Tech to go 12-4 (1-0) before the wheels came off to finish 16-15 (5-11). So by those two metrics, for whatever they're worth, I'd argue this year's UNC team is the worst of Roy's tenure.

Given that, the game on Saturday is realistically one of three major things UNC (and its fans) has left to play for this year: home vs Duke, away at Duke, and the ACCT to send up a Hail Mary to get into the Tourney. How does that back-against-the-wall mentality translate into what happens in this game? If you believe that humans react to incentives (and I do), then this strikes me as a real strong incentive.

UNC is arguably backed into an even deeper, darker corner than they were when we played at UNC in 2010. At the time, UNC came in 13-10 (2-6) with wins over Sweet 16-bound Ohio State, Final Four-bound Michigan State, and a 2-point loss on the road at Elite Eight-bound Kentucky that suffered only 2 losses all season. In that Duke @ UNC game, Duke won 64-54, but it was a 1-point game with under 6 minutes to play. At the time, UNC appeared to be in directionally stronger shape than they are now, standing at today.

So while I think your math and numbers tell us something, I do think the context matters as well. I don't think it's possible to have a good sense for qualitative concerns in this situation - because we've never seen this level of disparity, at least recently. And for that reason, I find it reasonable for Duke fans to show angst that isn't supported by numbers. This is arguably the most lopsided Duke-UNC matchup in Roy Williams' 17 years at UNC. We're in uncharted waters. And uncharted waters can be scary.

- Chillin

I hear you, but how often have we heard, "This (Duke) game is [opponent X]'s Super Bowl"? How often have people said, "Everyone brings their best against Duke"? Every opponent ratchets it up when they play us. Does UNC have some extra gear that other teams don't have? Logic suggests it really shouldn't be any different than any other road game against an unranked and desperate ACC opponent. And objective history supports that.

Could it be a close game? Sure. In just the past week we've played road games against unranked opponents and won by just 9 and 8 points, and both games seemed closer than the final score. Can UNC win? Of course. All I'm saying is the odds of that happening aren't so high -- history would suggest around a 20% chance, which admittedly is far from zero. I also think the argument that, "This is Roy's worst team so they have a better chance to beat us" is kind of counter-intuitive.

[ChillinDuke]

<snip>


I hear you, but how often have we heard, "This (Duke) game is [opponent X]'s Super Bowl"? How often have people said, "Everyone brings their best against Duke"? Every opponent ratchets it up when they play us. Does UNC have some extra gear that other teams don't have? Logic suggests it really shouldn't be any different than any other road game against an unranked and desperate ACC opponent. And objective history supports that.

Could it be a close game? Sure. In just the past week we've played road games against unranked opponents and won by just 9 and 8 points, and both games seemed closer than the final score. Can UNC win? Of course. All I'm saying is the odds of that happening aren't so high -- history would suggest around a 20% chance, which admittedly is far from zero. I also think the argument that, "This is Roy's worst team so they have a better chance to beat us" is kind of counter-intuitive.

I can't argue with numbers. But answering your bolded question, I do think UNC has an "extra gear". The individual players on their team are significantly better than, say, Boston College who just gave us a run at their place. I can't precisely explain why UNC has a worse record than BC, or why UNC recently lost to BC. But directionally, I would say yes, UNC has an extra gear compared to BC. So I dunno, lumping in a road game with BC versus a road game with UNC, it just doesn't feel the same to me. I understand that is perhaps illogical or not quantifiably explainable. And, make no mistake, that also doesn't mean I don't appreciate your analysis and your point. I take your point - as one of many.

- Chillin

[Music man55]

If the Blue devils come out cold and sloppy against the cheats at the dump Sat. nite, they will get themselves into a world of trouble. As bad as the cheats have been this year, that dump over there 9 miles away is going to be full pedal to the metal and rabid for blood. Our guys DO NOT want to give those Tar Heel players a jump start on us because they have a team that can take us down if we're not focused and locked in from the opening tip. I truly hope that K has them prepared and mentally ready. Let's go Duke!

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

I’m looking for one key thing from the good guys on Saturday: defensive rebounding. The cheats can’t shoot worth a damn. But they can push and shove under the basket and go over the back with the best of them. If we get good positioning and box outs, the cheats’ “offense” disintegrates.

[fuse]

Most of the team who gets to play without a legit university affiliation’s losses have been close. While I would love a game like 82-50, all I want to see is a Duke victory.

[moonpie23]

one of their bench guys averaging 3 pts/gm will go unconscious from deep and hang 41 on us.....

[OldPhiKap]

I respect every opponent.

I believe every team has the ability to beat us on a given day.

I have no respect for UNC.

[SkyBrickey]

I watched the FSU game. It was very competitive. Carolina looked better than I expected, especially without Robinson.

[OldPhiKap]

It's also not true. Austin Rivers had an assist% of 13.0%. Anthony's assist% is 22.8%.

Anthony is the UNC point guard, and has 38 assists to 188 shot attempts (20.2%)

Austin was a shooting guard who had 71 assists to 402 shots (17.7%)

So, 2.5% difference which seems negligible to me given that Anthony has only appeared in 11 games. The difference though is that a shooting guard is expected to shoot. A point guard, well — if he is not distributing the ball for UNC then who is?

[MChambers]

I believe every team has the ability to beat us on a given day.

I have no respect for UNC.

I must spread some comments, but yeah, you’ve nailed it.

[Kedsy]

Anthony is the UNC point guard, and has 38 assists to 188 shot attempts (20.2%)

Austin was a shooting guard who had 71 assists to 402 shots (17.7%)

So, 2.5% difference which seems negligible to me given that Anthony has only appeared in 11 games. The difference though is that a shooting guard is expected to shoot. A point guard, well — if he is not distributing the ball for UNC then who is?

That's not actually how assist% is calculated. It's basically how many assists you have compared to how many potential assists were available (adjusted for minutes played). And according to sports-reference.com, the numbers I posted (13 for Rivers; almost 23 for Anthony) are accurate. So while it's true that Anthony has only played 11 games, in those 11 games he got a lot higher percentage of the available assists.

Having said that, the assist% calculation subtracts your own FG attempts from the number of potential assists, and Anthony's usage (34.4%) is a fair amount higher than Austin Rivers's was for Duke (25.2%, even though Austin had the highest usage on the Duke team). I'm not sure what the best way to account for that is (if there is one), but I'd be surprised if the gap is nearly as narrow as you suggest.

[dukelifer]

It's also not true. Austin Rivers had an assist% of 13.0%. Anthony's assist% is 22.8%.



While I suppose anything can happen, the question should be "is it likely to happen," and the answer is no.

(See my earlier posts for my rationale.)



I hear you, but how often have we heard, "This (Duke) game is [opponent X]'s Super Bowl"? How often have people said, "Everyone brings their best against Duke"? Every opponent ratchets it up when they play us. Does UNC have some extra gear that other teams don't have? Logic suggests it really shouldn't be any different than any other road game against an unranked and desperate ACC opponent. And objective history supports that.

Could it be a close game? Sure. In just the past week we've played road games against unranked opponents and won by just 9 and 8 points, and both games seemed closer than the final score. Can UNC win? Of course. All I'm saying is the odds of that happening aren't so high -- history would suggest around a 20% chance, which admittedly is far from zero. I also think the argument that, "This is Roy's worst team so they have a better chance to beat us" is kind of counter-intuitive.

Sure- not likely but not zero and I would suggest even higher than 20% because we don't have much data with Anthony in the lineup as he gets rid of the rust. How does your analysis account for him recovering from a layoff?

[gofurman]

I think UNC has a 25% chance of winning at best if BRob does not play. Then you have 3 tough guys to cover - Anthony, Brooks and Bacot. with Robinson out there he makes the whole team better and the chances hit 30% at least

[Kedsy]

Sure- not likely but not zero and I would suggest even higher than 20% because we don't have much data with Anthony in the lineup as he gets rid of the rust. How does your analysis account for him recovering from a layoff?

Absolutely not zero. And as far as how to account for Anthony missing half the games and now coming back after a layoff, I don't know. My gut tells me even with Anthony, UNC is not a top 25 team, but I don't have definitive data. I do know that UNC's record with Cole in the lineup is an uninspiring 6-5. That's better than their overall record of 10-12, but really not so much better. I'd venture to guess that if the odds are higher than 20%, they're not all that much higher.

All I'm saying is don't look at the name on the jersey. And for your own welfare, don't look at that awful color. Look at the team and its results and tell me how afraid you'd be if Wake Forest had a similar record and we were traveling to Winston Salem on Saturday.

[jv001]

I don't fear this uncheat team but I do fear that our Duke team may come in flat with no energy, even if it is uncheat we're playing. If these players(both teams) are like previous players, they know each other and have played against each other. If Duke has a good start in the game, I don't think uncheat will recover. Anthony will do what he normally does. He will take around 20-25 shots and the other cheat players will stand around and watch him shoot. Then on the other hand, Cole might go the other way and make his team mates better and it will be a close game if Duke doesn't play well. That's my take anyway.

GoDuke!

[left_hook_lacey]

Although UNC's record and performance has not been what anyone expected this year, they are a capable team that could give Duke an L.

Cole Anthony is a scorer and if Tre doesn't man up his D than Cole could score 30+. I am sure the staff and Tre are very aware of his, and JGold's D duties on Cole.

Also, the UNC bigs are a tough match up for the Duke bigs. Hurt will need to be a man and Duke will have to rely on Javin and Jack to support the D. My guess is that UNC will go right at the Duke bigs and try to get Carey into foul trouble.

Overall, I think Duke is a much better team but this game at UNC could result in an L if Duke doesn't come out locked in on D and making shots/layups.

I feel like Goldwire will be on Cole quite a bit in this game. He can rough him up, reach, gamble on D etc. to get Cole out of his game and potentially make some early turnovers and if Jordan gets in foul trouble, no biggie, switch Tre back on him and wear him down. If they do that, the head is cut off of the snake, and the body will die a slow death.

[whereinthehellami]

I watched the FSU game. It was very competitive. Carolina looked better than I expected, especially without Robinson.

I watched it to and was not all that impressed with UNC. It was my first time seeing FSU play this year and came away really unimpressed with them. Very undisciplined, uninspired play. FSU had a lot of unforced turnovers and missed a lot of open 3s. Per the announcers this was an aberration. I thought FSU did more to make UNC look good then UNC did to look good. UNC didn't make a field goal for 16 minutes in the second half and FSU only went up by 10. FSU had something like 6-7 turnovers during that run.

[CDu]

Absolutely not zero. And as far as how to account for Anthony missing half the games and now coming back after a layoff, I don't know. My gut tells me even with Anthony, UNC is not a top 25 team, but I don't have definitive data. I do know that UNC's record with Cole in the lineup is an uninspiring 6-5. That's better than their overall record of 10-12, but really not so much better. I'd venture to guess that if the odds are higher than 20%, they're not all that much higher.

Looking at W/L is an overly simplistic way to look at things, because the quality of competition was much different. With a healthy and not rusty Anthony, they lost only to good teams (OSU, Michigan neutral site, at UVA), and were 3-3 against top-60 teams with two top-50 wins. Without Anthony, they lost to a sub-150 team and went 3-6 against top-100 teams with no top-50 wins and 6 losses outside the top-50.

Or, using W/L, with a healthy Anthony they don’t lose to Wofford, Clemson, or Va Tech. So that would shift them to 7-4 in those games and 6-3 in the games prior. That is a pretty big difference, and would And I would venture that they wouldn’t have lost to BC had Anthony not been playing his first game back from injury and trying to reconnect with his teammates, but obviously that is purely conjecture.

Put another way, in the 9 games before Anthony went down, UNC was playing like a top-50 team, having dropped only from #5 in T-Rank to #28. In the 11 games after that, they played like a team well outside the top-100, dropping from 28 to 98. Clearly a different quality of team than when he was healthy.


All I'm saying is don't look at the name on the jersey. And for your own welfare, don't look at that awful color. Look at the team and its results and tell me how afraid you'd be if Wake Forest had a similar record and we were traveling to Winston Salem on Saturday.

I agree with the first sentence. I would change the the last sentence from Winston Salem to Raleigh or South Bend. I think they are probably a ~50-60 ranked team with Anthony and a sub-120 team without him. Where I disagree is that I think you are underselling how bad they were in the 11 games he missed, and how okay they were in the first 9 games.

[NYBri]

I’m not so concerned about the Cheats playing over their heads as I am about our play. We have, upon occasion, laid eggs offensively. See first half of BC.

We score like we usually do, we win. We lay the egg....?

[NYBri]

Also, any time I see Austin Rivers mentioned in a Cheat week thread, I’m happy.

Never gets old::

https://youtu.be/-7674c0ublk

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Also, any time I see Austin Rivers mentioned in a Cheat week thread, I’m happy.

Never gets old::

https://youtu.be/-7674c0ublk
I admit it. I love the part where they show the stunned crowd in slow motion with their mouths fully agape.

[TruBlu]

I admit it. I love the part where they show the stunned crowd in slow motion with their mouths fully agape.

That’s just their normal breathing pattern.

[UrinalCake]

I’m looking for one key thing from the good guys on Saturday: defensive rebounding. The cheats can’t shoot worth a damn. But they can push and shove under the basket and go over the back with the best of them. If we get good positioning and box outs, the cheats’ “offense” disintegrates.

Yep, and that’s mostly going to fall on Hurt, Jack, or whoever else is playing next to Carey. I trust that Carey will be able to hold his own against Bacot, but our other big needs to have probably his best game if the season in terms of boxing out in order to keep Brooks off of the offensive boards. When one of their bigs takes a shot, we cannot send both of our bigs over to try to block the shot, because that just leaves a wide open path for their other big to get a putback. Forget trying to block shots, just hold your position, stay on your man, and secure the rebound.

If we start getting destroyed on the offensive glass then we’ll be forced to play both Javin and Carey as we did for a stretch against Syracuse. That’s not a great option.

[MChambers]

Yep, and that’s mostly going to fall on Hurt, Jack, or whoever else is playing next to Carey. I trust that Carey will be able to hold his own against Bacot, but our other big needs to have probably his best game if the season in terms of boxing out in order to keep Brooks off of the offensive boards. When one of their bigs takes a shot, we cannot send both of our bigs over to try to block the shot, because that just leaves a wide open path for their other big to get a putback. Forget trying to block shots, just hold your position, stay on your man, and secure the rebound.

If we start getting destroyed on the offensive glass then we’ll be forced to play both Javin and Carey as we did for a stretch against Syracuse. That’s not a great option.

Jack is a good rebounder. If Hurt isn't holding his own, Jack should be fine.

[OldPhiKap]

That's not actually how assist% is calculated. It's basically how many assists you have compared to how many potential assists were available (adjusted for minutes played). And according to sports-reference.com, the numbers I posted (13 for Rivers; almost 23 for Anthony) are accurate. So while it's true that Anthony has only played 11 games, in those 11 games he got a lot higher percentage of the available assists.

Having said that, the assist% calculation subtracts your own FG attempts from the number of potential assists, and Anthony's usage (34.4%) is a fair amount higher than Austin Rivers's was for Duke (25.2%, even though Austin had the highest usage on the Duke team). I'm not sure what the best way to account for that is (if there is one), but I'd be surprised if the gap is nearly as narrow as you suggest.

Thanks for the explanation, and I do not doubt the accuracy of your figures under that approach. I'm not sure what it is that I said that you are disputing though. Rivers and Anthony were both, to use a colloquial term, "black holes" when the ball went to them. Rivers was a shooting guard, and so that makes some sense to me. Anthony is a point guard, which is problematic IMO.

If the disagreement is "who is the bigger black hole," I think that Anthony has not played enough games to make an apples-to-apples comparison. Since he came back, Anthony was 5-14 against BC including 2-8 from downtown (42% of UNC's deep shots). Against FSU Anthony was 5-22 (32% of shots taken) including 3-10 from deep (52.6% of attempts). That is a shot every 1.8 minutes of time on the floor, and against FSU he took more shots than Brooks and Bacot combined. All of this is against only 3 assists in each game.

And with this analysis, shots do not even include the times he was fouled and did not convert. (He has taken 22 free throws in the two games back).

[budwom]

I've seen this movie before. Undermanned unc team manages to give Duke fits via relentless offensive rebounding, a fair number of runouts. I'm expecting a major tussle and then can be pleasantly surprised if the going is easier than that.

[OldPhiKap]

I've seen this movie before. Undermanned unc team manages to give Duke fits via relentless offensive rebounding, a fair number of runouts. I'm expecting a major tussle and then can be pleasantly surprised if the going is easier than that.

Yup, and despite their record UNC has jumped out to some nice first half leads. I will be pleasantly surprised if we do not trail at the half, and I expect a fight the whole way.

[jv001]

I've seen this movie before. Undermanned unc team manages to give Duke fits via relentless offensive rebounding, a fair number of runouts. I'm expecting a major tussle and then can be pleasantly surprised if the going is easier than that.

The uncheat method of going over the back for a rebound or over the back for a slap out to an open 3 point shooter. Either way it's a foul that will not be called. This play was put into their offensive repertoire by Saint Dean many many years ago. I've seen it way too many times. Best we put a body on a player and block out or we'll see it again Saturday.

GoDuke!

[mph]

if you’re having a bad day, take a few minutes to read this 538 breakdown (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/north-carolina-mens-basketball-is-off-the-rails/amp/) of how bad XNC has been this year. I promise you’ll feel better. It has it all. Advanced metrics? Check. Historical win/loss record? Check. Roy Williams blame-shifting quotes? Check.

[budwom]

if you’re having a bad day, take a few minutes to read this 538 breakdown (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/north-carolina-mens-basketball-is-off-the-rails/amp/) of how bad XNC has been this year. I promise you’ll feel better. It has it all. Advanced metrics? Check. Historical win/loss record? Check. Roy Williams blame-shifting quotes? Check.

and so your prediction is?

[bluedev_92]

I admit it. I love the part where they show the stunned crowd in slow motion with their mouths fully agape.

Absolutely! I break that clip out when I’m feeling a little down & it puts a smile on my face!!

[Truth&Justise]

But let's get qualitative for a second. This feels like a match-up that doesn't have great comps. In 17 seasons with Roy Williams at the helm, the Tar Heels have missed the NCAAT only once (82-50; had to say it). And in that season, they had Ed Davis sidelined for a little less than half the year - perhaps an analogue for Cole Anthony's injury this year. But in 2010 they still had pretty good cohesion with Larry Drew-Marcus Ginyard-Will Graves-John Henson-Deon Thompson starting 150 out of 185 available starts (173 out of 185 if you add in Ed Davis in John Henson's spot). In that disastrous season, UNC had better starting lineup cohesion than they've had thus far this year. Further, in that season they started 11-4 in the non-con and beat Va Tech to go 12-4 (1-0) before the wheels came off to finish 16-15 (5-11). So by those two metrics, for whatever they're worth, I'd argue this year's UNC team is the worst of Roy's tenure.
. . .
UNC is arguably backed into an even deeper, darker corner than they were when we played at UNC in 2010. At the time, UNC came in 13-10 (2-6) with wins over Sweet 16-bound Ohio State, Final Four-bound Michigan State, and a 2-point loss on the road at Elite Eight-bound Kentucky that suffered only 2 losses all season. In that Duke @ UNC game, Duke won 64-54, but it was a 1-point game with under 6 minutes to play. At the time, UNC appeared to be in directionally stronger shape than they are now, standing at today.
- Chillin

I thought of the exact same comparison. Here's the box score (https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore?gameId=300410153) and play-by-play (https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/playbyplay?gameId=300410153) from that 2010 game, and two things stand out to me:

1) It was a very close game. And Duke got off to a decent start, taking an early 11-5 lead, so it wasn't the case of Duke laying an egg early and having to claw back. UNC just hung around for the whole game. With 7 minutes left it was tied 45-45, and with 6 minutes left Duke led by 1. In other words, despite Duke being the much better team, this was anyone's game. Ultimately, Duke's defense held stout, and Jon Scheyer hit a pair of huge off-the-dribble threes: one at 5:35 to give Duke a 4 point lead, and the dagger at 2:35 to give Duke a 9 point lead.

2) This Duke team was far from a finished product. It was a good team--the win gave them a record of 20-4 overall, and 8-2 in conference. But Miles Plumlee started the game, and Brian Zoubek played just ten minutes off the bench, missing his only shot attempt. At the time, no one could have foreseen how big of a factor he'd be down the stretch. So even for a good team, there's still a lot of time for growth and change between February and March.

And for fun, here are some highlights from that game (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-R9zBs6vH6U). Scheyer was cold-blooded.

[rsvman]

I have only seen Anthony play a few games this year, but from my observation, Rivers drove better than Anthony does, but Anthony shoots a bit better (games since his return notwithstanding).

Here's a good player, to be sure, but they can't beat us with him alone.

They can be dangerous even though they have a lot of losses. We need to keep focused.

[Truth&Justise]

One more thing to keep in mind: UNC won't quit during this game. This is the big one, and the crowd will show up. If Duke manages to build a lead, it can't take its foot off the gas.

[bundabergdevil]

if you’re having a bad day, take a few minutes to read this 538 breakdown (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/north-carolina-mens-basketball-is-off-the-rails/amp/) of how bad XNC has been this year. I promise you’ll feel better. It has it all. Advanced metrics? Check. Historical win/loss record? Check. Roy Williams blame-shifting quotes? Check.

Very pleasant read, indeed. Here's hoping they get that historic losing record!

[DavidBenAkiva]

Jonathan Alexander at the N&O is reporting that Brandon Robinson is likely to miss the game this weekend.

https://t.co/D4upo3lMqa?amp=1

That's a big blow for UNC. Robinson, while not a dynamic player, was a reliable presence and the best shooter on the team. He can serve as a pressure relief for Cole Anthony in the backcourt. This further thins out the rotation for UNC and puts more pressure on Anthony and Garrison Brooks to shoulder the scoring load.

[CDu]

Jonathan Alexander at the N&O is reporting that Brandon Robinson is likely to miss the game this weekend.

https://t.co/D4upo3lMqa?amp=1

That's a big blow for UNC. Robinson, while not a dynamic player, was a reliable presence and the best shooter on the team. He can serve as a pressure relief for Cole Anthony in the backcourt. This further thins out the rotation for UNC and puts more pressure on Anthony and Garrison Brooks to shoulder the scoring load.

If true, tough break for the Heels. They will need Keeling to step up like he did against FSU. Keeling is smaller but more dynamic with the ball than Robinson, but not nearly as reliable. A lot more pressure on Black as well.

[moonpie23]

, tough break for the Heels.

and well deserved....hopefully, many more to come...

[Fish80]

Put Moore on Anthony. Shut him down.

[DavidBenAkiva]

If true, tough break for the Heels. They will need Keeling to step up like he did against FSU. Keeling is smaller but more dynamic with the ball than Robinson, but not nearly as reliable. A lot more pressure on Black as well.

Keeling has had 2 double-digit scoring games all year. Prior to the 14 point "outburst" at FSU, Keeling scored 0 points in 10 minutes against Boston College.

UNC has three guards that will play off of Cole Anthony, including Christian Keeling, Andrew Platek, and Jeremiah Francis. Francis is more of a backup PG, but he might see a few minutes on the court with Anthony. Each of these three guards have struggled to consistently produce for the Tar Heels. Between the 3, they have put up 5 double-digit scoring efforts all year and are collectively shooting below 25% from 3. Platek and Keeling have a history of making jumpers, but they have really struggled this year. It would be a nice surprise for UNC to have one of these guys provide a spark on offense (or defense).

[MarkD83]

What are the chances that Coach K devises a scheme to keep the ball out of Anthony's hands and let the other guards try to run unc's offense.

On another note, my "fear" is that Brooks figures out how to be as effective as he was when Anthony was injured.

[CDu]

Keeling has had 2 double-digit scoring games all year. Prior to the 14 point "outburst" at FSU, Keeling scored 0 points in 10 minutes against Boston College.

UNC has three guards that will play off of Cole Anthony, including Christian Keeling, Andrew Platek, and Jeremiah Francis. Francis is more of a backup PG, but he might see a few minutes on the court with Anthony. Each of these three guards have struggled to consistently produce for the Tar Heels. Between the 3, they have put up 5 double-digit scoring efforts all year and are collectively shooting below 25% from 3. Platek and Keeling have a history of making jumpers, but they have really struggled this year. It would be a nice surprise for UNC to have one of these guys provide a spark on offense (or defense).

Francis has not really shared the court with Anthony. When Anthony has been healthy, Francis has totaled just 9 minutes this season. He played a bunch while Anthony was out, and not well. In fact, he sat out the Heels’ two wins before Anthony’s return. I would be really surprised if Francis plays more than spot minutes as Anthony’s backup.

It is true that Keeling has scored in double figures just twice this season. But that is a tad misleading. He has had 4 other games with 8 or more points. For a guy averaging just 16 minutes per game in a reserve role behind Robinson, that isn’t bad. And he has a track record as a scorer, averaging over 17 ppl in each of his three seasons at Charleston Southern. And that wasn’t just low-level comp: he scored 16+ in 7 of 8 games against power-6 schools in those seasons. It would not be all that surprising for him to provide scoring punch on the wing.

Platek has averaged 5 more minutes per game, and will likely start over Keeling. But he is pretty unlikely to score. Despite averaging more minutes, he has never scored in double-digits, and has reached 8 just four times. He is more of a glue guy than a scoring threat.

Of those three, Keeling is far and away the most likely to provide some scoring punch. He will play third fiddle to Anthony and Black, but if anyone is going to chip in that third perimeter threat it is almost certainly Keeling.

[Neals384]

I haven't watched UNC play with exception of a few minutes. In reading about Cole Anthony, he sounds like college version of Austin Rivers. Is that a good comparison for him?

except for the ability to hit game winners vs. rivals. I hope.


I watched the FSU game. It was very competitive. Carolina looked better than I expected, especially without Robinson.

uh no.


I watched it to and was not all that impressed with UNC. It was my first time seeing FSU play this year and came away really unimpressed with them. Very undisciplined, uninspired play. FSU had a lot of unforced turnovers and missed a lot of open 3s. Per the announcers this was an aberration. I thought FSU did more to make UNC look good then UNC did to look good. UNC didn't make a field goal for 16 minutes in the second half and FSU only went up by 10. FSU had something like 6-7 turnovers during that run.

Both teams were pretty awful. If they hadn’t been 2 upcom No opponents I would not have watched.

Where is “wheat?” Wheat, are you lurking, ready to post in the unlikely event of an UNC win?

[Spanarkel]

Francis has not really shared the court with Anthony. When Anthony has been healthy, Francis has totaled just 9 minutes this season. He played a bunch while Anthony was out, and not well. In fact, he sat out the Heels’ two wins before Anthony’s return. I would be really surprised if Francis plays more than spot minutes as Anthony’s backup.

It is true that Keeling has scored in double figures just twice this season. But that is a tad misleading. He has had 4 other games with 8 or more points. For a guy averaging just 16 minutes per game in a reserve role behind Robinson, that isn’t bad. And he has a track record as a scorer, averaging over 17 ppl in each of his three seasons at Charleston Southern. And that wasn’t just low-level comp: he scored 16+ in 7 of 8 games against power-6 schools in those seasons. It would not be all that surprising for him to provide scoring punch on the wing.

Platek has averaged 5 more minutes per game, and will likely start over Keeling. But he is pretty unlikely to score. Despite averaging more minutes, he has never scored in double-digits, and has reached 8 just four times. He is more of a glue guy than a scoring threat.

Of those three, Keeling is far and away the most likely to provide some scoring punch. He will play third fiddle to Anthony and Black, but if anyone is going to chip in that third perimeter threat it is almost certainly Keeling.

Can Duke still win if Platek somewhow manages to drain several treys? I hope we don't have to find out. Being Givens'd or Bootsied is one thing but being Platek'd would really hurt.

[Indoor66]

Can Duke still win if Platek somewhow manages to drain several treys? I hope we don't have to find out. Being Givens'd or Bootsied is one thing but being Platek'd would really hurt.

Sounds like a dental problem to me.

[moonpie23]

Lots of talking heads this morning weighing in. All parroting the “I wouldn’t be surprised at Unc winning” bs.

Hope we go in there and crush them.


Oh. 9 to the frickin’ F

[Native]

9f
9f
9f
9f
9f
9f
9f
9f
9f
9f

[Jaks19]

There is no doubt this game will be a tough one especially at UNC. Duke has enough depth and players capable of checking Cole but he will get his points. He is much better that D Thornton from BC and Thornton got 21. I would not be surprised to see Tre, JGold, Moore and Stanley at times manning up against Cole.

Where the game will be interesting is in the front court for Carey will be fine but can he stay out of foul trouble (I expect UNC to go right at him and attempt to get fouls on him) and is Duke deep enough with Javin, Hurt and Jack to manage Bacot and Brooks who may both end up with double doubles. My concerns here are: 1- Foul troubles for Carey and Javin. 2- not enough scoring from Javin, Hurt and Jack. 3- Hurt not hitting shots and having no impact.

So if Duke manages to keep Cole in check but loses the battle of the bigs this gam might come down to who is hitting shots from the wings.

[CDu]

Can Duke still win if Platek somewhow manages to drain several treys? I hope we don't have to find out. Being Givens'd or Bootsied is one thing but being Platek'd would really hurt.

Can we still win? Sure. Would it make life more difficult? Absolutely. That said, I'd be pretty surprised if Platek went off against us. I think Keeling or even Pierce would be the more likely "random dude going off" candidates. And Black would be the most likely Bootsie* candidate.

* Obligatory reminder that we actually won the "Bootsie game."

[jv001]

Can we still win? Sure. Would it make life more difficult? Absolutely. That said, I'd be pretty surprised if Platek went off against us. I think Keeling or even Pierce would be the more likely "random dude going off" candidates. And Black would be the most likely Bootsie* candidate.

* Obligatory reminder that we actually won the "Bootsie game."

I have not watched an entire cheat game this season. Matter of fact if I had to add up the total minutes I've watched them it would be somewhere around 25 minutes. So, my take on the game doesn't mean much on the cheat side of things. For some reason I'm only worried about Brooks and Anthony. Now if Robinson were playing, I would probably be worried about him hitting 10 threes against us. There seems to be "that guy" in road games that go off on us.. If we play to our potential, I don't think they can beat us.

GoDuke!

[Jaks19]

UNC has 3 players (that will play against Duke) that are capable of having good nights, Anthony, Bacot and Brooks. IMO, Anthony will get his points no doubt, and the Bacot and Brooks could both have double-doubles, but it's managing how big of games they each have.

[Troublemaker]

What are the chances that Coach K devises a scheme to keep the ball out of Anthony's hands and let the other guards try to run unc's offense.

Yes, we're going to ball-deny Anthony plenty. The other thing I suspect we're going to do is blitz all ball screens i.e. double-team Anthony on a ball screen to force him to pass it to their big that is screening.

We blitzed some against Syracuse, a team that like UNC, plays two non-shooters at the 4 and 5. (The similarities end there as UNC's bigs are obviously much bulkier). I've primed a youtube video of an example of our blitz here: https://youtu.be/Qu-32UFQHEk?t=190

Notice that because Cuse has two very good shooters on the wings, Duke stuck to them out there so instead of a 4-on-3 behind the blitz, it became essentially a 2-on-1 for Cuse's bigs. With Brandon Robinson reportedly being out, I expect Duke to zone up a lot more behind the blitz so it'll be more of a 4-on-3 with our three guys forming more of a compact triangle. We're going to force Brooks and Bacot to handle the ball, pass, dribble, and generally make plays without turning the ball over instead of allowing Anthony to use a ball screen. Generally, yes, we're going to force UNC's non-Anthony players to try to beat us.

Now, Anthony could try to take Tre 1-on-1 but that's a battle that we would expect to win, i.e. Anthony would hopefully be inefficient doing so.

[roywhite]

Cole Anthony likes to shoot, even when well defended. Fine with me if he goes 7 for 20, which is about his FG% average.

[szstark]

Yes, we're going to ball-deny Anthony plenty. The other thing I suspect we're going to do is blitz all ball screens i.e. double-team Anthony on a ball screen to force him to pass it to their big that is screening.

We blitzed some against Syracuse, a team that like UNC, plays two non-shooters at the 4 and 5. (The similarities end there as UNC's bigs are obviously much bulkier). I've primed a youtube video of an example of our blitz here: https://youtu.be/Qu-32UFQHEk?t=190

Notice that because Cuse has two very good shooters on the wings, Duke stuck to them out there so instead of a 4-on-3 behind the blitz, it became essentially a 2-on-1 for Cuse's bigs. With Brandon Robinson reportedly being out, I expect Duke to zone up a lot more behind the blitz so it'll be more of a 4-on-3 with our three guys forming more of a compact triangle. We're going to force Brooks and Bacot to handle the ball, pass, dribble, and generally make plays without turning the ball over instead of allowing Anthony to use a ball screen. Generally, yes, we're going to force UNC's non-Anthony players to try to beat us.

Now, Anthony could try to take Tre 1-on-1 but that's a battle that we would expect to win, i.e. Anthony would hopefully be inefficient doing so.

The two blitzes I saw in the video didn't have good results. I hope we execute it better on Saturday.

[Jaks19]

UNC will take a lot of shots and game plan on offensive rebounds and limiting Duke's second chance points on the other end. UNC will most likely win the rebounding battle but if Duke is making shots, that might not be a big deal.

[House P]

The two blitzes I saw in the video didn't have good results. I hope we execute it better on Saturday.

I noticed the same thing. That being said, the link was to a highlights video. I has been a while since I have seen a highlight clip which could have been described as "well-defended-screen-which-resulted-in-the-opponent-having-to-reset-their-offense"? :)

I am way too lazy to look at the full game replay to see how many examples Duke had of successfully defending the screen.

Either way, I am all in favor of better execution on Saturday!

[whereinthehellami]

10196

[devildeac]

I noticed the same thing. That being said, the link was to a highlights video. I has been a while since I have seen a highlight clip which could have been described as "well-defended-screen-which-resulted-in-the-opponent-having-to-reset-their-offense"? :)

I am way too lazy to look at the full game replay to see how many examples Duke had of successfully defending the screen.

Either way, I am all in favor of better execution on Saturday!

I'm in favor of executing the cheats any Saturday (or Sunday, or Monday, or...)

9F 'em.

[Kedsy]

UNC will take a lot of shots and game plan on offensive rebounds and limiting Duke's second chance points on the other end. UNC will most likely win the rebounding battle but if Duke is making shots, that might not be a big deal.

UNC is a better defensive rebounding team than Duke, but Duke is actually a little better at offensive rebounding than UNC is. UNC misses a lot more shots than Duke, though, so if you're the kind of person who adds up rebounds on both sides and says one team outrebounded the other, that would slightly ameliorate UNC's defensive rebounding edge.

Based on my quick calculations, Duke's expected number of rebounds is 38 (11 offensive and 27 defensive) and UNC's expected number of rebounds is 37 (13 offensive and 24 defensive).

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Based on my quick calculations, Duke's expected number of rebounds is 38 (11 offensive and 27 defensive) and UNC's expected number of rebounds is 37 (13 offensive and 24 defensive).

That's interesting prediction. I assume you did this on pure anlalytics...or did you factor in anything subjective (like the Heels usually play their best game of the year against Duke, or they'll have great jump in their legs fueled by the home crowd, etc)?

[Kedsy]

That's interesting prediction. I assume you did this on pure anlalytics...or did you factor in anything subjective (like the Heels usually play their best game of the year against Duke, or they'll have great jump in their legs fueled by the home crowd, etc)?

All numbers. No subjective assumptions.

Also, I just perused Torvik's game scores for the past few seasons, and while it's true UNC played really well against Duke last year, in the previous few years they didn't play close to their best game of the year against Duke.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

All numbers. No subjective assumptions.

Also, I just perused Torvik's game scores for the past few seasons, and while it's true UNC played really well against Duke last year, in the previous few years they didn't play close to their best game of the year against Duke.

Well to clarify, by playing their best game...I mean historically (over the decades since K and Duke surpassed them) they have had a totally different level of intensity and fire for Duke. Often Duke was the best opponent they had, so "best game" in that sense cannot be measured by numbers only. I submit the Cheat team Saturday will the most fired up, and play the hardest, they have all season, and that this will be obvious from the eye test.

In a related story: The real hatred with Duke/Cheats (post Bubas era) came about when the Cheats and Dean's Myth just could not accept that they were not cock of the walk any more. They had been used to fighting NCSU and Maryland for supremacy through much of the 70s, spilled over into the 80s....and they did not want Duke to rise again. They dominated Waters, McGeachy and a year or so of Foster...then Foster's "A Dynasty Fostered" lasted but a short time...and they dominated K for a while when he took over.

Once Duke became "the hunted" instead of the hunter in this rivalry, the hate reached new levels...and so did the cheats' intensity in these games. I realize back to the mid 60s with Heyman and so on, the hatred was really thick...but about 12-14 years of Heel dominance toned it down for a while.

[Neals384]

Well to clarify, by playing their best game...I mean historically (over the decades since K and Duke surpassed them) they have had a totally different level of intensity and fire for Duke. Often Duke was the best opponent they had, so "best game" in that sense cannot be measured by numbers only. I submit the Cheat team Saturday will the most fired up, and play the hardest, they have all season, and that this will be obvious from the eye test.


Duke gotta be ready for that. On the other hand, it's tough to get fired up after being run over by the bus multiple times.

[Kedsy]

Well to clarify, by playing their best game...I mean historically (over the decades since K and Duke surpassed them) they have had a totally different level of intensity and fire for Duke. Often Duke was the best opponent they had, so "best game" in that sense cannot be measured by numbers only. I submit the Cheat team Saturday will the most fired up, and play the hardest, they have all season, and that this will be obvious from the eye test.

Honest question: assuming your observation of higher intensity is accurate, but that the higher intensity does not translate into better results (as probably shown by the Torvik game scores -- and I say probably because I haven't run a full analysis), is it really their "best game"?

[PackMan97]

Q. How many Carolina fans does it take to change a lightbulb?
A. All of them. One to replace the lightbulb. Two to hang a banner. The rest to brag they did it better than Duke.

----

Q. How do you get a Carolina graduate off your front porch?
A. Pay them for the pizza.

----

When God was decided where his only son should be born on this earth, he was down to two cities. Bethlehem and Chapel Hill. The problem was he could find three wise men and a virgin in Chapel Hill.

----

One day on Franklin St there was an NC State fan standing over an open manhole cover shouting, "Fifty Seven! Fifty Seven! Fifty Sevent!" A Carolina fan came over and asked him what he was doing standing in the middle of Franklin Street. The State fan just pointed down into the manhole cover. When the Carolina fan bent down to look in, the State fan shoved him in and started shouting, "Fifty Eight! Fifty Eight! Fifty Eight!"

-----

Q. What do you call 30 Carolina fans in a basement?
A. A whine cellar.

-----

One day in an elementary school in Chapel Hill, NC, a teacher asks her class if the North Carolina Tar Heels are their favorite football team. The whole class says yes, except for Little Jimmy.

The teacher asks, "What's your favorite football team Jimmy?"

Little Jimmy says, "The NC State Wolfpack"

The teacher asks, "Well, why is that?"

Little Jimmy says, "Well, my dad is a Wolfpack fan, my mom is a Wolfpack fan, I guess that makes me a Wolfpack fan.";

The teacher angered by his reply says, "If your dad was a moron and your mom was an idiot what would that make you?"

Little Jimmy says, "Well, I guess that would make me a North Carolina fan."

-----

One foggy night, an NC State fan and a North Carolina fan were driving the opposite directions on a road near Raleigh. While crossing a narrow bridge, they hit each other head-on, mangling both cars.

The North Carolina fan manages to climb out of his car and survey the damage. He looks at his twisted car and says, "Man, I'm lucky to be alive!"

Likewise, the Wolfpack fan gets out of his car uninjured, he too feeling fortunate to have survived.

The North Carolina fan walks over to the Wolfpack fan and says, "Hey, man, I think this is a sign that we should put away our petty differences and live as friends instead of being rivals."

The Wolfpack fan thinks for a moment and says, "You know, you're absolutely right! We should be friends. In fact, I'm going to see if something else survived the wreck."

The Wolfpack fan then pops open his trunk and removes a full, undamaged bottle of Jack Daniel's. He says to the Tar Heel fan, "I think this is another sign - we should toast to our newfound friendship." The Tar Heel fan agrees and grabs the bottle. After sucking down half of the bottle, the Tar Heel fan hands it back to the Wolfpack fan and says, "Your turn!"

The Wolfpack fan calmly twists the cap back on the bottle, throws the rest of the bottle over the bridge into the river and says, "Nah, I think I'll just wait for the cops to show up."

---------

...and the best joke of all....

The University of North Carolina

[superdave]

I have not seen Unc much but I think it would be nice for Cole to dominate the ball and shoot his typical %. If that happens and we keep them off the offensive glass, we win.


What are the chances that Coach K devises a scheme to keep the ball out of Anthony's hands and let the other guards try to run unc's offense.

On another note, my "fear" is that Brooks figures out how to be as effective as he was when Anthony was injured.

[Bob Green]

We have a clear advantage on the perimeter especially with Brandon Robinson not playing. Cole Anthony is a ball hog who hasn’t looked good since returning from injury. The more he has the ball in his hands the better.

Brooks and Bacot could give us issues inside so it is vital Vernon Carey avoids foul trouble. We will need a strong defensive performance from another inside player. My gut says it will be Jack White. He is tough as nails and experienced.

On offense, we need to attack the rim and try to get Brooks and/or Bacot in foul trouble. I’d like to see Cassius Stanley be aggressive today slashing to the hole. We have a depth advantage so exploit it.

[OldPhiKap]

Game day. GTHC.

[CDu]

UNC is a better defensive rebounding team than Duke, but Duke is actually a little better at offensive rebounding than UNC is. UNC misses a lot more shots than Duke, though, so if you're the kind of person who adds up rebounds on both sides and says one team outrebounded the other, that would slightly ameliorate UNC's defensive rebounding edge.

Based on my quick calculations, Duke's expected number of rebounds is 38 (11 offensive and 27 defensive) and UNC's expected number of rebounds is 37 (13 offensive and 24 defensive).

Worth nothing that in conference play, Duke hasn’t rebounded as well. UNC is 1st in the ACC in OReb% and 4th in DReb%, whereas Duke is 2nd and 8th, respectively. Of course, that probably amounts to a 1 or 2 rebound swing on average relative to looking at the season long numbers.

[jv001]

Looks like Duke is favored by 7 to 7.5 points, over under 150 pts. Sounds about right for those of us that think it will be a close game.

GoDuke!

[moonpie23]

need to come out on fire......make them know they don't have a chance.....make them give up early...



9f

[devildeac]

Getting one of the cheat players in foul trouble? Great plan but that's about as likely as "u"nc athletes going to class between about 1988 and 2011.

Much more likely for big Vern or Tre to pick up a couple cheap fouls as they get off the team bus. :mad:

[NYBri]

9f! Today and forever!

[lotusland]

We have a clear advantage on the perimeter especially with Brandon Robinson not playing. Cole Anthony is a ball hog who hasn’t looked good since returning from injury. The more he has the ball in his hands the better.

Brooks and Bacot could give us issues inside so it is vital Vernon Carey avoids foul trouble. We will need a strong defensive performance from another inside player. My gut says it will be Jack White. He is tough as nails and experienced.

On offense, we need to attack the rim and try to get Brooks and/or Bacot in foul trouble. I’d like to see Cassius Stanley be aggressive today slashing to the hole. We have a depth advantage so exploit it.

I agree this is a job for Jack. My feeling is that K/Duke is just better at taking away the opponents strength than exploiting their weakness. I would love to see Vern light it up and get UNCs bigs in foul trouble while Hurt rains down 3s over Brooks or Bacot but I fear Carrey in foul trouble and UNCheat killing us on the boards.

[OldPhiKap]

Getting one of the cheat players in foul trouble? Great plan but that's about as likely as "u"nc athletes going to class between about 1988 and 2011.

Much more likely for big Vern or Tre to pick up a couple cheap fouls as they get off the team bus. :mad:

Javin just picked up a foul getting on the East-West bus.

[Bob Green]

Bacot has fouled out of two of Carolina’s last six games:

https://amp.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/unc/unc-now/article240035548.html?__twitter_impression=true

Vernon Carey is #2 in the nation in drawing fouls at 7.8 per game. Bacot will be the primary defender against Carey. How will Bacot approach the assignment?


Just trying to do my work early, front him and stuff like that, so I don’t get in foul trouble, because I mean a lot to the team and I’ve got to be on the floor.

[Rogue]

A Duke fan died and went to heaven to be met by St Peter. St Peter says before I can let you in, you have to answer a couple of questions.
How was it to be a Duke Fan ?? the Duke fan said it was rough,, the tar heels cheated for years and nothing was done about it.
St Peter then ask, how do you spell GOD ? The Duke fan replies, GOD.. St Peter says you can enter.

Next was a NC State fan . St Peter did the same thing.. How was life as a NC State Fan. The fan replied it was rough,, constantly having to compete with their arch rival UNC who was always cheating but never punished . St Peter then asked the NC State fan, how do you spell GOD. The fan replied GOD.. St Peter said he could enter heaven..

Next was a UNC fan.. St Peter asked what he wanted.. in which the UNC fan replied he wanted to go to Heaven.. St Peter explained he'd have to answer a couple of questions.. How was it like being a UNC fan,, the UNC fan replied that it as awful,, having to play on a level playing field,, being called a cheater in public , just awful. St Peter said , I see.. Well,, How do you spell Chrysanthemum ? :D

[devildeac]

I agree this is a job for Jack. My feeling is that K/Duke is just better at taking away the opponents strength than exploiting their weakness. I would love to see Vern light it up and get UNCs bigs in foul trouble while Hurt rains down 3s over Brooks or Bacot but I fear Carrey in foul trouble and UNCheat killing us on the boards.

OPK posted right after this that Jav picked up a foul getting *on* (not under) the team bus on the Duke campus already. :mad:

[devildeac]

A Duke fan died and went to heaven to be met by St Peter. St Peter says before I can let you in, you have to answer a couple of questions.
How was it to be a Duke Fan ?? the Duke fan said it was rough,, the tar heels cheated for years and nothing was done about it.
St Peter then ask, how do you spell GOD ? The Duke fan replies, GOD.. St Peter says you can enter.

Next was a NC State fan . St Peter did the same thing.. How was life as a NC State Fan. The fan replied it was rough,, constantly having to compete with their arch rival UNC who was always cheating but never punished . St Peter then asked the NC State fan, how do you spell GOD. The fan replied GOD.. St Peter said he could enter heaven..

Next was a UNC fan.. St Peter asked what he wanted.. in which the UNC fan replied he wanted to go to Heaven.. St Peter explained he'd have to answer a couple of questions.. How was it like being a UNC fan,, the UNC fan replied that it as awful,, having to play on a level playing field,, being called a cheater in public , just awful. St Peter said , I see.. Well,, How do you spell Chrysanthemum ? :D

Probably responded: f-l-o-u-r

[devildeac]

Duke, NCSU and cheat fan walking on a beach at the NC coast see a shiny object in the sand, pick it up, brush off all the sand and a genie suddenly appeared and grants them three wishes. Of course they argue and the genie puts a quick end to it, granting each fan one wish. The Pack fan goes first but not after some more arguing.

"I really miss Jimmy V and wish for him to be back on the sidelines at the RBC/PNC Center." Wish granted and Jimmy V returns.

cheat fan gets the second wish:

"After decades, I've really come to hate all the damn Yankees that come down to chappaheeya and disturb our Southern culture and traditions. I want a 40 foot high concrete wall built around our town that's 10 feet thick so no more of those carpetbaggers can get in." Wish granted. Wall erected.

Duke fan goes last but has a few questions. The genie is impatient and irritated but asks, "Ok, what are they?

Duke fan says, "That wall you just built is really 40 feet high and 10 feet thick."

"Yea, yea," comes the reply. "What's you point?"

One more question: "No one can get in or out, correct?"

"Yea, yea, get to your wish," the genie screams.

"Fill it with concrete!"

[devildeac]

Eight years ago today. Never, ever forget:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYHtgiRDWbQ

[-jk]

My kid's hype video from last year, still nice (but only viewable on youtube, sorry)!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AMMW6YFBYG0

-jk

[subzero02]

My kid's hype video from last year, still nice (but only viewable on youtube, sorry)!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AMMW6YFBYG0

-jk

Very nice... I'm glad it included Derryck's game saving block. I hadn't thought about that in a while despite the fact that we've faced off against him twice this season.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Eight years ago today. Never, ever forget:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYHtgiRDWbQ

I was not a huge Rivers fan and he frustrated the heck out of me. But, this one shining moment was perfect. I can't remember another Duke/UNC game that felt more like a game we stole. We were down and showed no signs of coming back. I felt it, the fans at UNC felt it - it just wasn't gonna happen for us.

But... It did. We stole that dadgum game and left the crowd shocked. Buzzer, dagger, walk-off.

One of my top Duke fan moments.

[DukieInKansas]

Eight years ago today. Never, ever forget:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYHtgiRDWbQ

It never gets old!

[semper phi 78]

Probably responded: f-l-o-u-r

St Peter knew that the UNC fan spells GOD...”Dean”

[DukieInBrasil]

can we get a chat thread up?

[weezie]

It never gets old!


An all-time "stand on the couch" and scream moment. I've said it before, when my time comes, I'm going to make sure my medical directive includes playing this video. If nothing beeps, I'll be outta here.

Not actually kidding.

[snewman92]

Pardon me if this has been discussed elsewhere, but I'm surprised to see that DBR Chat is not yet open.

GTHC, GTH!

[-jk]

DBR Chat (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/misc.php?do=cchatbox) is open! (Sorry, running late...)

If it gets a bit slow, refresh the page. If you're on a mobile device, you'll need to select "Blue" at the bottom.

If it's running too fast for you, you can always check out the chat archive (https://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/misc.php?do=ccarc) to catch up.

As always - please follow the DBR Posting Guidelines.

Let's Go Duke!

-jk

[DrChainsaw]

I'm standing by.....

[Acymetric]

Does it feel like the main camera is like...a little out of focus or something? All the other angles look fine but the main angle looks a little fuzzy to me.

[rsvman]

Missing some pretty good looks.

Sad to let them get away with the easy basket after we made a shot. Oldest Carolina trick in the book. Gotta stay awake.

[SouthernDukie]

As expected Cheats come out with tons of energy and forge an early lead. Have to match their intensity and be more aggressive on the offensive end. Too tentative right now.

[Mak P]

I don't know why tre is missing those shots lately

[ncexnyc]

Starting off like an 8 vs 5 game. Vernon gets thrown to the ground and doesn't get a call, while Black comes flying in over the back and gets rewarded with free throws.

[Acymetric]

I don't know why tre is missing those shots lately

Distracted by all the ugly blue around him.

[ChrisP]

Did it appear to anyone else that Carey got shoved to the ground under our basket right before he went out?

[Bluedog]

Does it feel like the main camera is like...a little out of focus or something? All the other angles look fine but the main angle looks a little fuzzy to me.

I agree. Very odd.

[Son of Mojo]

anthony is a carrying machine.........and Carey was pushed to the court with no call (not Terping when it's obvious).

[Devilwin]

Not good so far...

[Acymetric]

I agree. Very odd.

Nobody else sees it (of the people in the room watching with me) so thanks for confirming that I'm not crazy!

[ncexnyc]

Hurt needs to toughen up

[ratamero]

oh my god. we're going to be absolutely murdered by the refs today.

[ChrisP]

So...we get Bilas AND Ted Valentine? Awesome.

[Ballboy1998]

Unc with 100% of the 50/50 balls. Great job by Duke saving unc’s season.

[AtlBluRew]

2 great passes by Baker

[arnie]

We’re content to let them run. That wasn’t do it for Duke

[proelitedota]

Game is going about as well as I predicted lol.

[Ballboy1998]

Going to let unc score 100. Embarrassing defense.

[DUKIECB]

Hurt has got to be stronger.

They are hitting everything, we aren’t. Weather the storm.

[rsvman]

If they shot like this all year, they wouldn't be 10-12

[arnie]

Carey looks exhausted and Javin struggles. Not sure how we stay their bigs; need Tre, Stanley and the other guards to defend better.

[Bluedog]

Still very very early guys. I'm expecting a regression to the mean but we need to pick up our execution without panicking, particularly on the defensive end.

[Ballboy1998]

Losing the rebound battle 15-8. That’s an effort stat plain and simple.

[ChrisP]

I wonder what % we would shoot if weren't getting shoved, grabbed or bumped on pretty much every trip into the paint?

[Mak P]

I can't believe they're struggling against this team, then again the last game we had was horrendous. Nobody is stepping up and hitting shots

[DUKIECB]

I can't believe they're struggling against this team, then again the last game we had was horrendous. Nobody is stepping up and hitting shots Really? Have you watched this rivalry before? The records do not matter when these teams play each other.

[DUKIE V(A)]

Love the split screen. NOT!

[DUKIE V(A)]

Carey is finishing strong. Like it.

[Steven43]

What happened with Javin on that layup attempt?

[rsvman]

What happened with Javin on that layup attempt?

Same thing that happened with Moore a few minutes ago. Just shoot it way too hard.

Need to calm down on offense and get more revved up on defense.

[CameronDuke]

Long game folks. They aren’t this much better than Duke. We need to settle in and keep them off the boards. We will start to settle down offensively eventually.

[DUKIE V(A)]

What happened with Javin on that layup attempt?

Perhaps a little too hyped. Pleased with his rebounding so far.

[SouthernDukie]

Anyone who thought this game would start off any other way than it has simply doesn’t understand this rivalry. I knew UNC would come out and blitz us early. That was more predictable than the sun rising tomorrow morning. Just weather the storm and settle down and things will be fine.

[Ballboy1998]

This free throw disparity is obscene.

[Bluedog]

Stinks when we get a tie-up with 1 second left on the shotclock. I feel like it should reset to 20 like an O rebound.

[Steven43]

Holy cow, did you see Stanley float through the air?? Awesome.

[BigZ]

Go to hack a Bacot

[Brockt10]

Holy cow, did you see Stanley float through the air?? Awesome.

The kid is amazing

[DUKIE V(A)]

Joey witth three tremendous assists

[Steven43]

Jay said Florida State played SIXTEEN players today. I didn’t know there were that many players on a team.

[ratamero]

Joey no

[Steven43]

For those who say that Baker can only shoot and nothing else, that was a great pass to Carey.

[ChrisP]

Anthony is fouling Tre pretty much EVERY time down the court. And he just fouled Stanley on that drive

[CameronDuke]

Two words: BIG VERN!

[DUKIECB]

Got em right where we want em😎

[arnie]

Long game folks. They aren’t this much better than Duke. We need to settle in and keep them off the boards. We will start to settle down offensively eventually.

Yep it’s evening out. Vernon is a beast, don’t forget he’s on the floor.

[Steven43]

Give Roy a technical.

[DrChainsaw]

Was Vernon going to go after Roy there? He looked mad about something.

[Bluedog]

For those who say that Baker can only shoot and nothing else, that was a great pass to Carey.

Then follows with a great fake, drive and then missed wide open dunk. D'oh! I'm sure he can dunk it but sometimes you just lay it up.

[rthomas]

#5 on Carolina reminds me of a lure fish.10223

[scottdude8]

Joey no

Literally the words that came out of my mouth.

We’re making their secondary players shoot long 2s. They’re just making them right now. Keep attacking now with their foul trouble.

[rsvman]

Then follows with a great fake, drive and then missed wide open dunk. D'oh! I'm sure he can dunk it but sometimes you just lay it up.

Yeah. Lay it up there and get the points.

Then stop giving them wide open looks from 15 feet....

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

15 foot jumpers are killing us

[Steven43]

Then follows with a great fake, drive and then missed wide open dunk. D'oh! I'm sure he can dunk it but sometimes you just lay it up.

Yeah, I think he jumped off the wrong foot. 😔

Hey, did Carey say something to Roy when he (Roy) was complaining to the refs about Carey? I think he did. Joey pulled him back, thankfully.

[rocketeli]

#5 on Carolina reminds me of a lure fish.10223

and Cole Anthony looks like a "psychlo" from Battlefield Earth.

[Devilwin]

Tre not good tonight so far.

[Ballboy1998]

Lost it in that sequence.

[ChrisP]

I cannot believe we are making their scrubs look like All ACC!

[simplyluvin]

Nearly the worst half ever. Why can’t we stop them?

[Ballboy1998]

What an embarrassing half. This team isn’t winning anything.

[ratamero]

Man, this sucks.

[BigZ]

Getting beat by nerds

[rocketeli]

Ugh. I've heard there's this thing called defense? Maybe Duke should try it.

[dukelifer]

Not looking good right now.

[luvdahops]

Wretched finish to the half at both ends, after we had pulled within 3 and looked to have the momentum. A lot more “want to” on their side so far.

[arnie]

Thank God for Carey; otherwise this game is over. The “non-athletes” are destroying our athletes.

[Devilwin]

Not a good first half at all. Still time to turn it around but we gotta play better on both ends of the floor.

[rsvman]

Really bad end to the half, giving done scrub five quick points and not even getting a shot off in the last possession.

[ChrisP]

Every player not named Vernon Carey should be embarrassed about that half of "basketball" we just saw. I knew Carolina was going to bring it against us. Apparently, most of the team did not.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Yikes. Need good halftime adjustments.

[WakeDevil]

Give Roy a technical.

Why? Because he saw the offensive player bring his arm out?

[BigZ]

Anthony embarrassing Tre

[devildeac]

Just checked score and caught up on in-game thread. Pretty pathetic showing so far. Cheats shooting 59% on their way to about 90 points. Are we playing any defense whatsoever? :mad:

[DUKIECB]

Wretched finish to the half at both ends, after we had pulled within 3 and looked to have the momentum. A lot more “want to” on their side so far.I agree. I thought we had a chance to turn the tide there but nope. They shot 59% for the half. That cannot continue.

[scottdude8]

Law of averages says eventually they’re third and fourth option guys are going to stop making every shot they take. It has to.

I honestly don’t think we’ve played that poorly. They just haven’t missed. Have to come out in the second and attack the basket hard.

[Dukehk]

Sorry but this team just isn’t a national title contender.

Playing scared and getting beat by a hyped up Tarhole team.

I understand Anthony being hard to stop but we are getting beat by their scrubs right now.

Whole team playing scared. Nobody able to play proper defence. Talking about a team with 12 losses and a bunch of d2 level players.

They should be ashamed of themselves. Matthew hurt a pro? What a joke. That kid needs another 3 years before he is even remotely close to ready.

[CameronDuke]

Unc with better ball movement, shot fakes and rebounding so far. Unc has 12 assists on 19-32 shooting. They’re also out rebounding Duke 22-14. Duke has to keep them off the boards next half and get hot from 3 to have a shot in this one. Unc is also doing a good job not turning it over.

[kako]

1. K tears them a new one in the locker room.

2. Carolina is likely not to be so hot shooting in the 2nd half.

3. Foul trouble is worrisome for UNC.

4. Carey needs to park his butt in the post. No shots from outside the paint. I predict a 30 point game for him.

5. It's go time for Stanley or Moore. Or maybe (?) Baker. No one else looks like they can be a third scorer.

9F

[DUKIE V(A)]

Their two grad transfers played well in the first half. It will be interesting to see whether we deploy our zone press in the second half.

[Eternal Outlaw]

Been 3 straight road games were looked like a fringe tournament team and not a top 10 team.

[Steven43]

I cannot believe we are making their scrubs look like All ACC!

Yeah, this is a weird game so far. But I was warning everybody (friends, family, etc.) yesterday and today who were all so sure that Duke was going to crush Carolina that they were not understanding or respecting how this rivalry works. I had a feeling Carolina was going to play above their heads tonight. And that’s exactly what has happened thus far, darn it. Duke will come back and win a close one, I think.

[Dukehk]

Law of averages says eventually they’re third and fourth option guys are going to stop making every shot they take. It has to.

I honestly don’t think we’ve played that poorly. They just haven’t missed. Have to come out in the second and attack the basket hard.

Our defence has been atrocious. Missed assignments and allowing easy layups and dunks.

Got to get tougher and up in their faces. Play with fire and not play so scared.

If we lose here our season is done. We might not even get a 2 seed with that resume.

[Ultrarunner]

Then follows with a great fake, drive and then missed wide open dunk. D'oh! I'm sure he can dunk it but sometimes you just lay it up.

He was worried about pulling a JGold :)

[devildeac]

1. K tears them a new one in the locker room.

2. Carolina is likely not to be so hot shooting in the 2nd half.

3. Foul trouble is worrisome for UNC.

4. Carey needs to park his butt in the post. No shots from outside the paint. I predict a 30 point game for him.

5. It's go time for Stanley or Moore. Or maybe (?) Baker. No one else looks like they can be a third scorer.

9F

Foul trouble never worrisome for "u"nc when they play us. :mad:

[CameronDuke]

11 bench points for unc and 0 for Duke.

[Ultrarunner]

Just checked score and caught up on in-game thread. Pretty pathetic showing so far. Cheats shooting 59% on their way to about 90 points. Are we playing any defense whatsoever? :mad:

They're shooting lights out on low percentage shots. You can't control luck. You can just hope for a reversion to mean

[DUKIECB]

If we lose here our season is done. We might not even get a 2 seed with that resume. Really? Because you lose a rivalry game on the road? Win or lose our season is far from over.

[CameronDuke]

O’Connell did not register any playing time that half.

[ncexnyc]

That's not the way to closeout a half. Javin and Jack give us the toughness we need, but no offense whatsoever. Hopefully Tre will decide to show-up in the 2nd half. I'm also pleased with Baker so far.

[jipops]

Clearly the cheats are the better team tonight. Duke playing worse and worse as the season goes on.

[Dukehk]

Been 3 straight road games were looked like a fringe tournament team and not a top 10 team.

We always struggle on the road.

Mentally we just aren’t strong enough to come out tough and ready from the tip.

A lot of these guys should come back for year 2 and 3. That includes Tre Jones. He might get drafted late first but he will be straight to g league judging by this matchup with cole. Getting ripped apart by an average nba level player.

[Ultrarunner]

Clearly the cheats are the better team tonight. Duke playing worse and worse as the season goes on.

I'm not willing to concede the second half, thanks.

[Dukehk]

Really? Because you lose a rivalry game on the road? Win or lose our season is far from over.

Let’s be real. We need a good seeding to get far this year.

This team is vulnerable to playing on the road or against tough teams.

I was hoping for improvement but other than Carey and Cash, everybody else is stagnant or getting worse (Hurt/Aoc).

[arnie]

11 bench points for unc and 0 for Duke.

Yep and White, normally a reserve didn’t score. We’re shooting 88% from the line and only 4TOs. But getting killed on the boards, defense and hustle plays.

[dukelifer]

Young team playing young so far.

[rsvman]

I feel like a zone might actually do some good. We are giving them short shots. They are not as good at long shots. Plus it would slow them down some.

[DUKIE V(A)]

We have been hesitant to shoot even open three pointers so far. Open threes are must shoot. Period.

Down nine. I still think we have a great shot provided we ball out on the defensive glass. They will tighten up down the stretch.

[SCMatt33]

Nearly the worst half ever. Why can’t we stop them?

They’ve been making shots they haven’t made all year. UNC has to have about 7 or 8 15-17 foot jumpers in this game, most off the dribble. The half court defense has mostly been pretty darn good, but unc has made tough ones. The killer defensively was the first 7 or 8 minutes when they got several easy buckets because Duke didn’t get back. You gotta keep forcing them to make those jump shots. If they keep making them you live with it. Unc would be way better than 10-12 if they shot like that all year. But it’s a rivalry game and you have to expect you’re opponents best...

Which gets you to the real killer, which is Dukes offense outside of Carey. There’s just waaaay too many decent looks missed by everyone else. It’s not that they’re all shots you should always make, but there’s a lot of shots you need to make half the time, and Duke has barely been making any. The same thing happened last game as well, but BC was just so atrocious themselves you could afford it.

And while I hate calling out individual players, but Matthew Hurt has been really bad recently. He single handed lay cost Duke 9 points in only three unc possessions. He got caught looking at Javin dive on the floor and didn’t get back which led to a bacot layup that he fouled on. Missed the blockout on the ensuing free throw that led to a four point possession. Took a horrendous three on the next Duke possession that led to a UNC runout, then leaned in trying to take a charge that led to another and one. None of those plays were about skill or talent, but effort and thought. Now, that being said, he’s a freshman, so it’s not like those aren’t two areas that freshman often struggle at, but freshman who are struggling in those areas are usually relegated to the bench outside of blowouts by this point in the year. The problem becomes that he plays the 4, and White is our only other traditional 4, and White just isn’t a 35 minute per game guy. That’s why you’ve seen more of Duke trying to either play 4 guards with Stanley or Moore trying to cover down low, but more than that, play Javin and Carey together. But that’s also hard to do if either of them get in foul trouble. He had similar stretches against BC and we really didn’t see him after that. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him not play next half, and if he doesn’t improve, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him mostly out of the lineup soon.

[CameronDuke]

Let’s just trust the GOAT right now and see what adjustment he makes. Coach K has won his fair share of these and we’ve experienced worse deficits than this I’m sure. Unc is playing very well, that’s undeniable. Tip of the cap to them but there are 20 minutes left. Adjustments will be made and I think Duke will fight back into this one somehow. Watch for maybe a zone or press from Duke at some point next half to try to get unc to turn it over. I think Duke will look to start getting Cassius and Moore to drive and slash from the wings more and finish or dish off if the defense collapses.

[luvdahops]

Complementary players typically play better at home. We need our core guts to step up. Looking at you Tre to start with.

[Dukehk]

Kind of hoping hurt comes out and plays to his potential. This is supposed to be a top 10 guy but he has really struggled to adapt to college ball. He still lacks the foot speed and coordination to be a star. His only forte is a 3 point shot which isn’t exactly that accurate anyways. He has just not shown the aggression to hit the glass and get some points in the paint.

Really hope coach K lights a fire under their asses for the second half. Bench and rotation guys need to step up and contribute.

[jv001]

This thread sounds like IC.

Tre needs to get the ball to Vernon every trip down the court and don't try to out score Anthony. Bigs block out and for heavens sake get back down court.

GoDuke!

[arnie]

Might be best that Hurt has to sit.

[Music man55]

If Duke don't get tougher in a hurry, we'll get blown out. Pathetic!

[ratamero]

Defense still not working. If it doesn't click, we're not doing this.

[Devilwin]

Horrible shot selection.

[luvdahops]

Really disappointed in the intensity level of our guys other than Carey and Cassius. We are getting outfought and outhustled repreatedly.

[devildeac]

Really disappointed in the intensity level of our guys other than Carey and Cassius. We are getting outfought and outhustled repreatedly.

Yep-outrebounded by 27-17 last I checked.

[CameronDuke]

Cassius starting to assert himself attacking the rim. Good sign.

[DUKIECB]

Yep-outrebounded by 27-17 last I checked. They are the number one rebounding team in the country. I think we’re playing hard, they are just playing above their normal mean.

[Dukehk]

No aggression from anyone other than Carey and Stanley.

Tre is being outplayed big time.

Everyone else can’t even get a rebound.

When did our offense become so stagnant? We are morphing into last years team in that we only throw the ball to Zion/Carey and have him do all the work.

No ball movement or anything that flows at all. On the other end we are giving up dunks.

Come on guys.

[BigZ]

These refs are terrible. No calls on obvious fouls by UNC

[Bluedog]

Did Valentine just do the Joel Berry treatment to Carey?? Didn't want to hear him did the cross arms. Not as dramatic as didn't turn completely around (was sideways) but basically the same...

[CameronDuke]

Down 6 and a corner 3 from Tre rims out. Looked like Duke was going to get it down to 3. Then a couple layups including a Loose ball that ends up in Brooks’ bread basket for an easy stick back and its back up to 10.

[BigZ]

The two biggest momentum swings were missed dunks by Baker and Stanley

[jipops]

One team looks like it is actually coached and prepared. One does not.