SFA Loss Looking Less Bad

[hallcity]

Stephen F. Austin is now 19-3 (https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/2617/stephen-f.-austin-lumberjacks). Their NET ranking (https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings)is still only 82 but that's still ahead of Ga. Tech, UNC, Miami, WFU and BC.

[budwom]

speaking of various ratings, I've noted that not only is Vermont ahead of unc now in KenPom, they are also ahead of more than half of ACC schools...make of that what you will.

[Acymetric]

Stephen F. Austin is now 19-3 (https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/2617/stephen-f.-austin-lumberjacks). Their NET ranking (https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings)is still only 82 but that's still ahead of Ga. Tech, UNC, Miami, WFU and BC.

I'm not really surprised.

Well, I'm a little surprised, I didn't necessarily think they'd crack the top 100, but I was pretty sure after they beat us that they weren't going to be at the very bottom of D1 rankings once the model had some actual data points.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Stephen F. Austin is now 19-3 (https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/2617/stephen-f.-austin-lumberjacks). Their NET ranking (https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings)is still only 82 but that's still ahead of Ga. Tech, UNC, Miami, WFU and BC.

More proof that the 28 point betting line was absurd from the get go........"biggest upset ever" is nonsense. Decent program. Win an NCAA game from time to time.

[robed deity]

More proof that the 28 point betting line was absurd from the get go...."biggest upset ever" is nonsense. Decent program. Win an NCAA game from time to time.

And passed the eye test for sure. That one guy who kept finishing in the paint was tough. Although, come to think of it lately, the d has been letting a lot of people get going downhill and finishing. Gotta clean that up.

[JasonEvans]

SFA seems likely to be a 12 or 13 seed in the tourney (assuming they win their conference tourney). No shame at all in losing to a team like that. In fact, you can pretty much bet it will happen multiple times in this year's tourney.

-Jason "of course, the game was at Duke... which makes it a good bit worse, but still not nearly the shock we all thought" Evans

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

SFA seems likely to be a 12 or 13 seed in the tourney (assuming they win their conference tourney). No shame at all in losing to a team like that. In fact, you can pretty much bet it will happen multiple times in this year's tourney.

-Jason "of course, the game was at Duke... which makes it a good bit worse, but still not nearly the shock we all thought" Evans

It sure was shocking on Nov 26.

[BD80]

SFA seems likely to be a 12 or 13 seed in the tourney (assuming they win their conference tourney). No shame at all in losing to a team like that. In fact, you can pretty much bet it will happen multiple times in this year's tourney.

-Jason "of course, the game was at Duke... which makes it a good bit worse, but still not nearly the shock we all thought" Evans

Cause and effect.

Did we lose because they are a pretty good team?

Or is SFA a pretty good team because of the confidence they gained by winning in Cameron?

[Truth&Justise]

This is all in sharp contrast to the other unranked team that upset #1 at home this season: Evansville. Since beating Kentucky on November 12, Evansville has gone 7-14, and now has a record of 9-14 (https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/team/schedule/_/id/339). Worse yet, they are 0-10 in the MVC. I won't bother looking up their NET or Kenpom ratings.

Granted, the team has had a lot of turmoil--head coach Walter McCarty was suspended and then fired following sexual misconduct accusations (https://www.14news.com/2020/01/22/ue-dismissed-walter-mccarty-mens-head-basketball-coach/), and leading scorer/rebounder DeAndre Wililams has missed the last 8 games with injury (https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/gamelog/_/id/4397355/deandre-williams). Still, this team has begun conference play with a ten-game losing streak. That win at Kentucky is now looking like a stronger contender for biggest upset ever.

[JasonEvans]

That win at Kentucky is now looking like a stronger contender for biggest upset ever.

Well, it is worth noting that Kentucky does not appear to be nearly as good as we thought back in November. They are 27 in the NET and 36 in Pomeroy. Sure, Evansville is one of the bottom 100 teams in the land, but Kentucky looks like a 5-7 seed at this point.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Cause and effect.

Did we lose because they are a pretty good team?

Or is SFA a pretty good team because of the confidence they gained by winning in Cameron?

...yes....

[Natty_B]

SFA got 6 votes in the AP poll this week. Ahead of Michigan and UVA.

https://apnews.com/APTop25CollegeBasketballPoll

[Hingeknocker]

SFA got 6 votes in the AP poll this week. Ahead of Michigan and UVA.

https://apnews.com/APTop25CollegeBasketballPoll

Whoa. I have been keeping track of SFA since I claimed in a thread that if they make the tournament, they'd be a 13 or 14 seed. At the time they were around ~100 in T-Rank, but they've fallen back a bit since then. They've only lost once in their conference (a truly perplexing home defeat to Texas A&M-Corpus Christi), but haven't been very convincing in most of their wins. They're #120 in T-Rank as of today. Voting them in the Top 25 is essentially indefensible.

That said, T-Rank currently puts them as a 12 seed if they make the tournament. Six weeks ago I would have easily pulled the trigger on them to win in a first round upset, but I'm less confident now with how they've played lately.

[devildeac]

So, what's our worst game now: the Clemson loss or the win over the cheats?

;):rolleyes:

[BD80]

SFA got 6 votes in the AP poll this week. Ahead of Michigan and UVA.

https://apnews.com/APTop25CollegeBasketballPoll

and unc ...

[kAzE]

SFA got 6 votes in the AP poll this week. Ahead of Michigan and UVA.

https://apnews.com/APTop25CollegeBasketballPoll

That's wild. Still an incredibly bad loss at home, but I'm glad SFA might end up being in a better "quadrant" than they were perceived to have been in back in November.

[Lurkingdukedog]

That's wild. Still an incredibly bad loss at home, but I'm glad SFA might end up being in a better "quadrant" than they were perceived to have been in back in November.

Remember - this was back when we were essentially a bunch of really good high school players learning how to play with one another. If I recall correctly, we left as many points on the foul line as Carolina did against us. And at the end overtime, we were essentially in a position to win it under their basket, got stripped and they scored at the buzzer. One non-conference loss at home every 1-2 decades really isn't a bad record at all.

[Fred G. Unn]

Statistically SFA is a pretty bizarre team. They are literally #1, the top team in the country in defensive turnover percentage and that really showed in the Duke game where they forced Duke into 22 TOs, which is still the most of any game this year. (FSU last night and Georgetown both were 21 TOs.) Oddly, as great as SFA is at forcing turnovers, they are almost last (#346 out of 353) in protecting the ball themselves on offense. They are #4 in the country in offensive rebounds, #7 in free throw percentage, and #10 in 3pt percentage (although near the bottom at #344 in 3pts made). Their two guys with the most 3pt attempts on the team are both shooting 43% from 3. It's pretty bizarre that the same team can be in the top 10 and bottom 10 in the country in several categories. They have a pretty legit shot at running the table for the rest of the regular season, and KenPom has them predicted to go 27-4, 18-2.

The media still thinks the loss is funny because it was at home and who had ever heard of SFA before, but they are shaping up to be a respectable team. I wouldn't be surprised to even see them win a tourney game.

[CameronBornAndBred]

They've only lost once in their conference (a truly perplexing home defeat to Texas A&M-Corpus Christi), but haven't been very convincing in most of their wins. They're #120 in T-Rank as of today. Voting them in the Top 25 is essentially indefensible.


That sounds familiar.

[BD80]

Are the "Quadrant" losses determined by the teams' rankings at the time the game is played or by the ranking at year's end? Can the SFA game become a not-so-bad-loss from a tourney seeding perspective?

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Are the "Quadrant" losses determined by the teams' rankings at the time the game is played or by the ranking at year's end? Can the SFA game become a not-so-bad-loss from a tourney seeding perspective?

The SFA loss won't determine our final seed. Everything that happens in the next few weeks will.

[tbyers11]

Are the "Quadrant" losses determined by the teams' rankings at the time the game is played or by the ranking at year's end? Can the SFA game become a not-so-bad-loss from a tourney seeding perspective?

Ranking at year's end. SFA is currently 81 in NET.

Here is a link to the NCAA site (https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/SitePages/Home.aspx) that tracks NET team sheets, etc. They update it daily. Click on the link for Men 2020 NET team sheets and you will get a pdf for all of the teams. The pdf is order of NET ranking so scroll to the 6th page and you will see Duke's sheet.

[JasonEvans]

SFA will have to get into the top 70 in the land for this to be just a Q2 loss, not a Q3. Right now they are 81 in the NET. It is possible they could get into the top 70, but sorta unlikely unless they get a bit more efficient on both sides of the ball in their remaining games.

[tbyers11]

SFA will have to get into the top 70 in the land for this to be just a Q2 loss, not a Q3. Right now they are 81 in the NET. It is possible they could get into the top 70, but sorta unlikely unless they get a bit more efficient on both sides of the ball in their remaining games.

Top 75 to be exact. 81 is pretty close, but agree that SFA would have to start winning by bigger margins to move up.

[BD80]

Is MSU still a Q1 win?

[scottdude8]

If it comes down to us and Kansas for the final No. 1 seed (which is how things are tracking), the committee could be faced with a very interesting decision: does Duke's head-to-head victory over Kansas carry more weight than having the "worst loss" to SFA?

Over the past couple years I've harped on how the committee seems to judge teams primarily on their "good wins" and not on their "bad losses", a choice which I believe led to Kansas getting a No. 1 seed back in 2018... that year's Kansas team had 7 losses, including multiple home losses (including to an unranked Oklahoma State team), but because the Big 12 was regarded so highly they still got a No. 1 seed. Now, no one is going to say the committee has a great record when it comes to consistency... but given this recent pattern, if we finish the year with a similar resume to Kansas, you would think that the "good win" against the Jayhawks would overshadow the "bad loss" against SFA. Kansas may need to lose one more game than us to even out the resumes though.

[JasonEvans]

Is MSU still a Q1 win?

Easily. It is not even close. One could argue it is the best win on our record. MSU is #11 in the NET and the game was a road game. They would have to drop out of the top 75 teams in the country for it not to be a Q1 win... that is how valuable it is to beat a team on the road.

-Jason "Duke is currently 4-1 in Q1 wins... our only regular season shots at more Q1 wins will be at NCSt and at Virginia" Evans

[mattyoung18]

Think the NCAA committee would dare match us up with SFA agsin?

[uh_no]

Think the NCAA committee would dare match us up with SFA agsin?

it's unlikely at this point, given that today duke would be a 1 or 2 seed, and SFA would almost assuredly not be a 15 or 16.

[Acymetric]

it's unlikely at this point, given that today duke would be a 1 or 2 seed, and SFA would almost assuredly not be a 15 or 16.

Maybe not in the first round, but they could set up a potential rematch in, say, the 2nd depending on how seedings shake out.

[scottdude8]

Maybe not in the first round, but they could set up a potential rematch in, say, the 2nd depending on how seedings shake out.

For that to happen, SFA would likely need to be a 10 seed, which would mean they’d be seeded higher than a lot of traditional “at large” teams. I don’t think that’s gonna happen either.

[UrinalCake]

CBS podcast yesterday mentioned how important it was that we pulled out that UNC win. A loss would have given us three Q2/Q3 losses. No other team in the preliminary field of 16 has more than one.

[mattyoung18]

For that to happen, SFA would likely need to be a 10 seed, which would mean they’d be seeded higher than a lot of traditional “at large” teams. I don’t think that’s gonna happen either.

Given how the tourney likes storylines I could see them making it possible for the 2nd round.There is also a possible matchup with Maryland.When was our last game against Maryland?

[brevity]

When was our last game against Maryland?

No idea, but I bet they would know.

[mattyoung18]

Never mind I just read where K said he wont schedule MD since they left the ACC in 13/14.He says it's hard since now there is a 18 game Acc schedule to deal with.There is a story on ESPN about top feuds in College hoops right now and Duke Md made it.

[Natty_B]

No idea, but I bet they would know.

The last one was the final MD year in the ACC. I believe the Jabari Parker team. It was an uninspired close Duke win at Cameron over a bad MD team. There was no game at MD that year as punishment for the Terps leaving the conference. Duke should never schedule MD again - K is right about that. I noticed the NCAA seeding this weekend had Duke a 2 and MD a 3 in the East. NCAA would love to make it happen.

[jimsumner]

Never mind I just read where K said he wont schedule MD since they left the ACC in 13/14.He says it's hard since now there is a 18 game Acc schedule to deal with.There is a story on ESPN about top feuds in College hoops right now and Duke Md made it.

It's actually a 20-game ACC schedule.

My understanding is that Duke has made it clear to the appropriate authorities that they would not like a Duke-Maryland game in the ACC-Big 10 Challenge and so far the two leagues have not forced the issue. Not sure how long this status quo prevails.

[BD80]

The last one was the final MD year in the ACC. I believe the Jabari Parker team. It was an uninspired close Duke win at Cameron over a bad MD team. There was no game at MD that year as punishment for the Terps leaving the conference. Duke should never schedule MD again - K is right about that. I noticed the NCAA seeding this weekend had Duke a 2 and MD a 3 in the East. NCAA would love to make it happen.

Chances of a 2v3 match up are probably less than 50%

[flyingdutchdevil]

Easily. It is not even close. One could argue it is the best win on our record. MSU is #11 in the NET and the game was a road game. They would have to drop out of the top 75 teams in the country for it not to be a Q1 win... that is how valuable it is to beat a team on the road.

-Jason "Duke is currently 4-1 in Q1 wins... our only regular season shots at more Q1 wins will be at NCSt and at Virginia" Evans

My God the ACC is bad this year.

Doesn't matter how good the top ACC teams play, there is only one 1-seed for an ACC team (and maybe zero if Louisville, Duke, and FSU lose a few more).

[Acymetric]

Chances of a 2v3 match up are probably less than 50%

The chances of any​ matchup after the 2nd round are going to be less than 50%.

[uh_no]

The chances of any​ matchup after the 2nd round are going to be less than 50%.

that's only true if all games are a coinflip. If the 1 and 2 seed each have >70% chance to make the elite 8, which is entirely reasonable in the case of a weak bracket and OP 1 and 2 seed, the chances of the 1-2 matchup is >50%.

[Acymetric]

that's only true if all games are a coinflip. If the 1 and 2 seed each have >70% chance to make the elite 8, which is entirely reasonable in the case of a weak bracket and OP 1 and 2 seed, the chances of the 1-2 matchup is >50%.

It isn't only true if all games are a coinflip...unless your coins hit heads at a >70% rate in which case I have some questions...the odds for each team can be better than 50% and still have the matchup less than 50% likely (as you yourself noted).

It would guess it is more common than not that it is less than that (especially for the 2 seed), I think you are probably estimating the odds of a 1 seed reaching the Elite 8 about right (70-80%) but the 2 seed too high (probably in the 50-65% range at most).

A 1 seed that is 99%, 90%, and 90% in the first 3 rounds still just barely cracks 80, and 90% is probably high for the Sweet 16 even for a strong #1 seed (it might even be too high for the 2nd round game against the 8/9). A 2 seed is going to be notably lower even than that.

[Acymetric]

FWIW, using historical data there is about a 31.5% chance of a 1/2 matchup in the Elite 8. 2 seeds have a 45.6% chance of making it, 1 seeds have a 69.1% chance. Of course, once you know the bracket you can use predictive win probabilities instead, but I expect even using that a >=50% chance of a 1/2 matchup is exceedingly rare, and I wouldn't be shocked if the probability never got that high for any 1/2 pair in any bracket.

[uh_no]

It isn't only true if all games are a coinflip...unless your coins hit heads at a >70% rate in which case I have some questions...the odds for each team can be better than 50% and still have the matchup less than 50% likely (as you yourself noted).

It would guess it is more common than not that it is less than that (especially for the 2 seed), I think you are probably estimating the odds of a 1 seed reaching the Elite 8 about right (70-80%) but the 2 seed too high (probably in the 50-65% range at most).

A 1 seed that is 99%, 90%, and 90% in the first 3 rounds still just barely cracks 80, and 90% is probably high for the Sweet 16 even for a strong #1 seed (it might even be too high for the 2nd round game against the 8/9). A 2 seed is going to be notably lower even than that.

my analysis referred to a hypothetical specific case, not 1 and 2 matchups in general. The committee is bad enough as seeding WRT objective measures that it's reasonable to imagine cases where an underseeded 2 and an overseeded 4 could result in a higher-than-expected change for the 2 seed to make the elite 8. I'd venture to imagine it's happened at least once in the last 5 years that such a team had 70% chance of reaching the elite 8.

I'm not suggesting that such a case is probable or common, just that it is by no means impossible.

An enterprising individual could take the best KP 2 seed, and the worst 15, 7, and 3 seeds and see what the maximum e8% for a individual 2 seed could possibly be.

[House P]

Statistically SFA is a pretty bizarre team. They are literally #1, the top team in the country in defensive turnover percentage and that really showed in the Duke game where they forced Duke into 22 TOs, which is still the most of any game this year. (FSU last night and Georgetown both were 21 TOs.) Oddly, as great as SFA is at forcing turnovers, they are almost last (#346 out of 353) in protecting the ball themselves on offense. They are #4 in the country in offensive rebounds, #7 in free throw percentage, and #10 in 3pt percentage (although near the bottom at #344 in 3pts made). Their two guys with the most 3pt attempts on the team are both shooting 43% from 3. It's pretty bizarre that the same team can be in the top 10 and bottom 10 in the country in several categories. They have a pretty legit shot at running the table for the rest of the regular season, and KenPom has them predicted to go 27-4, 18-2.

SFA is also in the bottom 10 in the country in terms of committing fouls (as measured by FTA/FGA on defense). It is not surprising that the team which forces the most turnovers also commits a lot lots fouls. By committing 22 turnovers while missing 16 of 40 free throws in the game, Duke played into SFA’s biggest strength (forcing turnover) while failing to take advantage of one of their biggest weaknesses (committing lots of fouls). That is a formula for a closer than expected game.