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ShaneRyan
01-13-2020, 02:35 PM
This is the first thread I've started, and I expect the haters to come out firing with two takes:

1. There's no such thing as an ACC regular season title.

2. Even if there was, the regular season doesn't matter.

To those points, I say, "I don't care." I don't care what's officially recognized, I don't care that there's a (very slightly) imbalanced schedule, and I don't care that most people will forget the regular season once the tournament starts. I recognize that the NCAA tournament is a far bigger prize, but I think it's crazy that we don't value regular season conference play way more than we do. It's the only mark of sustained excellence in this sport—everything else is a small sample, single-elimination tournament where luck plays a huge factor in success or failure. National titles are wonderful, but even for Duke they're rare, and we should experience more pride and joy over how the team plays in the grueling cauldron of ACC play.

This will sound pretentious, but I'll risk it—I started following European soccer for the first time this year, and it's opened my eyes to the way we think about success in American sports. We're an enormous country, so playing true round robins in regular season sports used to be impossible, and with the amount of money involved in playoffs across all sports, it makes sense how the systems have evolved and expanded. But it's complete madness that the regular season is seen as nothing more than positioning for the postseason. Winning the league in European soccer is a huge prize, and I wish it was that way here too. Not only does it make more sense, but I really think viewing things that way would make us better fans who are more attuned to the challenges not just of peaking in March, but of grinding out wins on a day-to-day basis.

All that said, Duke hasn't finished first in the ACC regular season since 2010 (and hasn't had a solo first place since 2006), but this year we have a great chance, and are currently the only undefeated team in the ACC (even better, the joy-killing, soulless, pseudo-basketball machine calling themselves UVA have already lost twice). I think, for the first time in a decade, this team is going to win the conference the hard way. Let's enjoy the ride!

fuse
01-13-2020, 02:41 PM
First- are you the “real” Shane Ryan?
Second- is this some sort of double reverse jinx post? 🤣

Post what you want- DBR will make more. 🙄

OldPhiKap
01-13-2020, 02:52 PM
Hard for me to disagree with anything you said; well-stated.

Billy Dat
01-13-2020, 02:53 PM
I have always valued the regular season "best record", even once the conference schedule went unbalanced. I am not sure it's "slightly unbalanced", but I guess we always have the advantage of not having to play ourselves.

If we don't win it this year, it will be extremely disappointing. FSU and Louisville have to play each other twice, and Louisville has to play the fading Hoos twice as well. Assuming that the Heels continue to be pitiful, it's ours for the taking, assuming we keep winning.

We have a chance to post an unseemly, gaudy, regular season record if we stay healthy and keep playing the way we are playing.

uh_no
01-13-2020, 02:54 PM
All that said, Duke hasn't finished first in the ACC regular season since 2010 (and hasn't had a solo first place since 2006), but this year we have a great chance, and are currently the only undefeated team in the ACC (even better, the joy-killing, soulless, pseudo-basketball machine calling themselves UVA have already lost twice). I think, for the first time in a decade, this team is going to win the conference the hard way. Let's enjoy the ride!

duke largely got scroogled by scheduling in '11, '13, and '15, though, and last year every ACC loss was attributable in large amount to injury, losing the NPOY for half the season and half the team for syracuse.

sagegrouse
01-13-2020, 02:55 PM
No problem here -- we have laundry in the rafters of Cameron for regular season titles.

Troublemaker
01-13-2020, 02:57 PM
This is the first thread I've started, and I expect the haters to come out firing with two takes:

1. There's no such thing as an ACC regular season title.

2. Even if there was, the regular season doesn't matter.

To those points, I say, "I don't care." I don't care what's officially recognized, I don't care that there's a (very slightly) imbalanced schedule, and I don't care that most people will forget the regular season once the tournament starts. I recognize that the NCAA tournament is a far bigger prize, but I think it's crazy that we don't value regular season conference play way more than we do. It's the only mark of sustained excellence in this sport—everything else is a small sample, single-elimination tournament where luck plays a huge factor in success or failure. National titles are wonderful, but even for Duke they're rare, and we should experience more pride and joy over how the team plays in the grueling cauldron of ACC play.

This will sound pretentious, but I'll risk it—I started following European soccer for the first time this year, and it's opened my eyes to the way we think about success in American sports. We're an enormous country, so playing true round robins in regular season sports used to be impossible, and with the amount of money involved in playoffs across all sports, it makes sense how the systems have evolved and expanded. But it's complete madness that the regular season is seen as nothing more than positioning for the postseason. Winning the league in European soccer is a huge prize, and I wish it was that way here too. Not only does it make more sense, but I really think viewing things that way would make us better fans who are more attuned to the challenges not just of peaking in March, but of grinding out wins on a day-to-day basis.

All that said, Duke hasn't finished first in the ACC regular season since 2010 (and hasn't had a solo first place since 2006), but this year we have a great chance, and are currently the only undefeated team in the ACC (even better, the joy-killing, soulless, pseudo-basketball machine calling themselves UVA have already lost twice). I think, for the first time in a decade, this team is going to win the conference the hard way. Let's enjoy the ride!

Depends on the definition of "hard". (Ha, before I continue, I will say a good try by you, but one can never predict the DBR response, which very often includes semantics.) Technically, if you have the best team, it's actually harder to win the single-elimination ACC tournament. Because the (now) 20-game regular season gives you a greater sample of games for your superiority to manifest itself, whereas one bad day in the tournament and you're done. Now, here I'm using "harder" to mean lower probability of happening, of course, but maybe you mean something akin to "over a longer period of time" in which case yes, obviously the regular season title would be harder under that definition.

Anyway, I would estimate that Duke has something like an 80% chance of winning the regular season at this point if we stay healthy, but we're probably an underdog to the field for the ACC tournament.

DukieInBrasil
01-13-2020, 02:59 PM
I have always valued the regular season "best record", even once the conference schedule went unbalanced. I am not sure it's "slightly unbalanced", but I guess we always have the advantage of not having to play ourselves.

If we don't win it this year, it will be extremely disappointing. FSU and Louisville have to play each other twice, and Louisville has to play the fading Hoos twice as well. Assuming that the Heels continue to be pitiful, it's ours for the taking, assuming we keep winning.

We have a chance to post an unseemly, gaudy, regular season record if we stay healthy and keep playing the way we are playing.

we've gone undefeated in conference play before (16-0). I don't know if 20-0 is feasible, but this might be the best year to make it happen! FSU, Louisville, and UVA are certainly formidable opponents, and much of the middle tier of ACC teams this year are capable of excellent games when properly motivated. I'm not predicting an undefeated ACC slate this year, but I do believe Duke is well positioned to earn the #1 seed in the ACCT. We've already got a 1-game lead on FSU and L'ville, and a 2 game lead on UVA.

scottdude8
01-13-2020, 03:01 PM
No problem here -- we have laundry in the rafters of Cameron for regular season titles.

100% this. K always talks about the importance of raising banners. Well, we get to raise a banner if we win the regular season title.

It's worth emphasizing that regular season titles are clearly of non-trivial importance to K. Back in 2010, he had the team cut down the nets in Cameron after securing the regular season title in the rout of UNC to both symbolize its importance and also motivate the team to do some more net cutting. In 2012 in his pre-UNC speech to the Crazies, K again talked about the fact that we'd claim a share of the regular season title with a win (many interpreted his speech as even giving the Crazies tacit approval to storm the court to celebrate such an accomplishment were it to happen, which of course it unfortunately didn't).

We have been screwed out of the regular season title by tough scheduling at a few points in the past decade. This year, the schedule is in our favor (as I mentioned elsewhere we only play Louisville and FSU once, at home, and only play UVA once, although on the road). It's time we took advantage of that.

CameronBornAndBred
01-13-2020, 03:03 PM
First- are you the “real” Shane Ryan?


Shane looks good in blue.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ltuKVhcGIlY

PS...Duke fans don't like the "regular season champions" thing only when the folks down the road win it. :)

ndkjr70
01-13-2020, 03:55 PM
Well, let's see. Bart Torvik currently gives us a 77% chance at being the sole ACC Regular Season champion, which is probably about the highest you'll ever see for a Duke team that's only 5-games into the conference slate.

Sticking with Torvik, there are only games left on the schedule that Duke has a <80% chance of winning; vs UL (79%), @NCSU (79%), and @UVA (78%).

There are only two other teams that are really remotely capable of winning the ACC this year. Louisville has 7 games left with a <80% chance at winning, including @Duke (21%), @NCSU (64%), @FSU (46%) and @UVA (64%). Florida State has 8 of those games.

It would surprise me if Duke stayed relatively healthy and wasn't the 1-seed in the ACC tournament this year.

kAzE
01-13-2020, 03:55 PM
You're not wrong. Regular season matters, and the ACC regular season championship does exist, but let's just make sure we have our priorities straight:

1. National Championhip
2. Final Four
3. ACC Tournament Championship
4. ACC Regular Season Championship
5. In-Season Tournament Championship(s)

This is the way.

CameronBornAndBred
01-13-2020, 03:57 PM
You're not wrong. Regular season matters, and the ACC regular season championship does exist, but let's just make sure we have our priorities straight:

1. National Championhip
2. Final Four
3. ACC Tournament Championship
4. ACC Regular Season Championship
5. In-Season Tournament Championship(s)

This is the way.

You have spoken. (wisely, too)

ndkjr70
01-13-2020, 04:00 PM
You're not wrong. Regular season matters, and the ACC regular season championship does exist, but let's just make sure we have our priorities straight:

1. National Championhip
2. Final Four
3. ACC Tournament Championship
4. ACC Regular Season Championship
5. In-Season Tournament Championship(s)

This is the way.

I was having this debate with a friend. Would you rather win the ACCT and split with UNC, or lose the ACCT but sweep UNC on the season? One hangs a banner, the other tastes sweeter.

Also, doing a little more reading on Bart Torvik's site; it seems like 18 wins is basically a guaranteed sole ACC Regular season champion (95.4%). 17 wins gives duke an 82.2% chance at being the sole winner.

CameronBornAndBred
01-13-2020, 04:08 PM
Also, doing a little more reading on Bart Torvik's site; it seems like 18 wins is basically a guaranteed sole ACC Regular season champion (95.4%). 17 wins gives duke an 82.2% chance at being the sole winner.

How is 18 wins not a 100% chance?

uh_no
01-13-2020, 04:15 PM
How is 18 wins not a 100% chance?

20 game season

Troublemaker
01-13-2020, 04:21 PM
You're not wrong. Regular season matters, and the ACC regular season championship does exist, but let's just make sure we have our priorities straight:

1. National Championship
2. Final Four
3. ACC Tournament Championship
4. ACC Regular Season Championship
5. In-Season Tournament Championship(s)

This is the way.

Yeah, it'll be nice and all to hang a banner for the regular season title, and I'll give the team a nice golf clap for it, but it's been 5 years since we've made a Final Four (and won the national title, obviously). We've certainly been close a couple of times since then, but yeah, the program needs to get to Atlanta this season.

CameronBornAndBred
01-13-2020, 04:28 PM
20 game season

Ahhh, forgot they added 2. Thanks :)
I was thinking "I'm no mathematician, but..."

kAzE
01-13-2020, 04:31 PM
I was having this debate with a friend. Would you rather win the ACCT and split with UNC, or lose the ACCT but sweep UNC on the season? One hangs a banner, the other tastes sweeter.

While individual seasons may vary, I think the answer is generally ACC championship > record vs. UNC, but ESPECIALLY if we beat UNC in the ACCT. But in terms of record against UNC specifically in relation to the overall success of the season, I think it depends on the season, and also on what happens later in the postseason.

Some examples

2014-15: We swept UNC in the regular season, but lost in the ACCT to Notre Dame, but then won the National Championship. Even though we didn't win the ACCT, this about the best outcome you can hope for.

2016-17: We split with UNC in the regular season, but win the ACCT, going through UNC. Then we lost in the 2nd round of the NCAAT to South Carolina. Even though we went 2-1 against UNC and won the ACCT, I can't ever remember feeling more bitter about the outcome of a season than this one. To make things even worse, UNC wins the title.

2017-18: Split with UNC in the regular season, lost to UNC in the ACCT semifinals, lost in the elite 8 against Kansas. We go 0/3 on championships, 1 overtime loss from reaching the FF, and have a losing record to UNC. Worst possible outcome.

2018-19: UNC swept us in the regular season, but we win the ACCT, going through UNC. We ultimately lose in the elite 8 by 1 to Michigan State. Even though we had a losing record against UNC (because exploding shoe reasons), we beat them in the postseason en route to a championship. I think this outcome is preferable to the 2016-17 situation, even though we had a winning record against UNC that year.

Edouble
01-13-2020, 04:36 PM
Would you rather win the ACCT and split with UNC, or lose the ACCT but sweep UNC on the season? One hangs a banner, the other tastes sweeter.

This is a no brainer. The ACC Championships in 2017 and 2019 tasted incredibly sweet. The 2017 ACC Championship in particular, as the NCAAs ended in such a terrible fashion following an injury plagued season, was incredibly sweet and somewhat unexpected.

A Championship is the answer for me every time.

wsb3
01-13-2020, 04:40 PM
Would you rather win the ACCT and split with UNC, or lose the ACCT but sweep UNC on the season? One hangs a banner, the other tastes sweeter.

You just made this more difficult but after careful deliberation..I take the split with the ACCT..

ShaneRyan
01-14-2020, 12:41 AM
Thanks for the discussion all, just caught up. I would rank things this way, noting it's only personal and it could change year by year:

1. National title
2. Final Four
3. ACC regular season
4. ACCT
5. Brown
6. In-season tourneys

Just kidding on the last two, but first four are legit. One interesting thing I've found looking at March Madness is that teams that win ONLY the regular season conference title are more likely to make Final Fours than teams that ONLY win the conference title. Not surprisingly, teams that win both are the most likely of all, but if it's one or the other, the regular season is a better predictor of NCAAt success.

devildeac
01-14-2020, 07:26 AM
Thanks for the discussion all, just caught up. I would rank things this way, noting it's only personal and it could change year by year:

1. National title
2. Final Four
3. ACC regular season
4. ACCT
5. Brown
6. In-season tourneys

Just kidding on the last two, but first four are legit. One interesting thing I've found looking at March Madness is that teams that win ONLY the regular season conference title are more likely to make Final Fours than teams that ONLY win the conference title. Not surprisingly, teams that win both are the most likely of all, but if it's one or the other, the regular season is a better predictor of NCAAt success.

I *might* consider adding a win over Wofford at home to the list above ;):rolleyes:.

(expected response from a poster, any poster, later today: I'll see your Wofford win and raise you a victory over SFA :o)

devilish
01-14-2020, 03:49 PM
No problem here -- we have laundry in the rafters of Cameron for regular season titles.

We even hang banners for finishing the regular season ranked #1. That, to me, is at least as big of an accomplishment as winning the conference tournament.

Dr. Rosenrosen
01-14-2020, 09:16 PM
I move that this thread be immediately closed for jinxing our team tonight.

jv001
01-14-2020, 10:07 PM
I move that this thread be immediately closed for jinxing our team tonight.

I'm with you and the team came out and played like they thought first place in the regular season was wrapped up. Our upper class players should make sure this doesn't happen. Alex and Javin were almost invisible. GoDuke!

ShaneRyan
01-15-2020, 12:26 AM
I move that this thread be immediately closed for jinxing our team tonight.

It cannot be confirmed as a jinx until the season is over and we didn't win, and in fact closing it may be the real jinx.

I will issue a preliminary apology for anyone who *feels* jinxed.

HereBeforeCoachK
01-15-2020, 06:21 PM
I move that this thread be immediately closed for jinxing our team tonight.

AGREE....we all know how well that "Bowl Watch" thread came out.....

uh_no
02-14-2020, 11:05 AM
Controls path to 1 seed
Louisville, by virtue of win over duke

Controls path to a share of the title
Duke, having the same record as UL

Eliminated from everything as their best possible record is 10-10
wake
miami
UNC

Also note that KP projects UL to lose 2 more games, having the following toughies:

away at clemson (68%)
away at uva (58%)
away at FSU (45%)

Duke's schedule is much more comfortable, with only

away at NCSU (73%)
away at UVA (68%)

in the uncomfortable range. Kp predicts one more loss.

FSU has the hardest schedule of the bunch:

away at NCSU (56%)
home against UL (55%)
away at clemson (62%)
away at ND (55%)

With a projected record of 15-5.


Given that, it's unlikely FSU will be in the running down the stretch IMO. The polls have consistently overrated them relative to their performances due to their "luck" of games in closer fashion than their record would suggest they should.

This particular banner is there for the taking. We must take care of business the rest of the way.

DavidBenAkiva
02-14-2020, 11:28 AM
Controls path to 1 seed
Louisville, by virtue of win over duke

Controls path to a share of the title
Duke, having the same record as UL

Eliminated from everything as their best possible record is 10-10
wake
miami
UNC

Also note that KP projects UL to lose 2 more games, having the following toughies:

away at clemson (68%)
away at uva (58%)
away at FSU (45%)

Duke's schedule is much more comfortable, with only

away at NCSU (73%)
away at UVA (68%)

in the uncomfortable range. Kp predicts one more loss.

FSU has the hardest schedule of the bunch:

away at NCSU (56%)
home against UL (55%)
away at clemson (62%)
away at ND (55%)

With a projected record of 15-5.


Given that, it's unlikely FSU will be in the running down the stretch IMO. The polls have consistently overrated them relative to their performances due to their "luck" of games in closer fashion than their record would suggest they should.

This particular banner is there for the taking. We must take care of business the rest of the way.

Thanks for posting this, oh_no. Things look good for Duke to claim the best record in the ACC. Still, I am expecting a dog fight at NC State for the same reasons Duke struggled at UNC. That game matters immensely for the State fans and their teams have given Duke a stiff challenge in recent years. For some reason, I am less concerned about UVA even though they are the better team than NC State. Duke and Coach K have a record of success against UVA and has the shooters to counter the pack line defense this year. UVA lacks the firepower on offense. Still, it would not be a surprise to drop that game. The Cavaliers are in need of a signature win, against either or both of Louisville or Duke, to get into the NCAA Tournament.

Personally, I want Duke to win out for the NCAA Tournament seeding implications rather than the conference record. Duke has had an easy path this year with home games against both Louisville and FSU. It's possible this season could end up with Duke having the best conference record since 2014-15 based on losses and the most conference wins ever thanks to the expanded schedule. But that's more a function of the rest of the league and the schedule of teams we played than a true indicator of how good this team is, in my opinion. What I really hope is that, if Duke runs the table the rest of the regular season, it will result in getting the 1 seed in the East bracket of the NCAA Tournament.

MarkD83
02-14-2020, 04:16 PM
Eliminated from everything as their best possible record is 10-10
wake
miami
UNC



Are these 3 teams eliminated from the "double bye" in the ACCT yet? Mathematically, UVA sitting in 4th place with the last "double bye" has 8 wins so they could still end at 8-12. However, practically some other team should finish with 11 wins (besides UofL, Duke and FSU).

Too many possibilities to do the probability calculations.

I am more interested when these 3 teams (one in particular) is locked into the "no bye" scenario and would have to win 5 games in 5 days to win the ACCT. Considering the unnamed team has only won 4 games in the past 2 and 1/2 months, 5 wins in 5 days seems undoable.

crimsondevil
02-14-2020, 04:26 PM
Controls path to 1 seed
Louisville, by virtue of win over duke

Controls path to a share of the title
Duke, having the same record as UL

Eliminated from everything as their best possible record is 10-10
wake
miami
UNC

Also note that KP projects UL to lose 2 more games, having the following toughies:

away at clemson (68%)
away at uva (58%)
away at FSU (45%)

Duke's schedule is much more comfortable, with only

away at NCSU (73%)
away at UVA (68%)

in the uncomfortable range. Kp predicts one more loss.

FSU has the hardest schedule of the bunch:

away at NCSU (56%)
home against UL (55%)
away at clemson (62%)
away at ND (55%)

With a projected record of 15-5.


Given that, it's unlikely FSU will be in the running down the stretch IMO. The polls have consistently overrated them relative to their performances due to their "luck" of games in closer fashion than their record would suggest they should.

This particular banner is there for the taking. We must take care of business the rest of the way.

Interesting, but other than the FSU game, UL and Duke have pretty similar remaining schedules. If UL wins @FSU, they're likely to be the #1 in the ACCT, with all the mythical/non-mythical/technically/technically-not honors that come with it.

We have to take care of business, regardless, for NCAA purposes.

Reddevil
02-14-2020, 04:28 PM
Are these 3 teams eliminated from the "double bye" in the ACCT yet? Mathematically, UVA sitting in 4th place with the last "double bye" has 8 wins so they could still end at 8-12. However, practically some other team should finish with 11 wins (besides UofL, Duke and FSU).

Too many possibilities to do the probability calculations.

I am more interested when these 3 teams (one in particular) is locked into the "no bye" scenario and would have to win 5 games in 5 days to win the ACCT. Considering the unnamed team has only won 4 games in the past 2 and 1/2 months, 5 wins in 5 days seems undoable.

Remember, Roy does not value the ACC Tournament as much as the regular season (or so he says), so they will not mind getting knocked out early so they can rest for..............NEXT YEAR! BWA HA HA HA!

uh_no
02-14-2020, 04:47 PM
Interesting, but other than the FSU game, UL and Duke have pretty similar remaining schedules. If UL wins @FSU, they're likely to be the #1 in the ACCT, with all the mythical/non-mythical/technically/technically-not honors that come with it.

We have to take care of business, regardless, for NCAA purposes.

UL has 3 games as hard as or harder than duke's hardest remaining game.



Considering the unnamed team has only won 4 games in the past 2 and 1/2 months, 5 wins in 5 days seems undoable.

2011 uconn had lost 4/5 and was 9-9 in conference, and had won 4 games since the middle of january. Obviously that uconn team was a lot stronger than this unnamed team...and the big east that year was far stronger than the ACC this year, but it's never undoable.

SCMatt33
02-14-2020, 09:44 PM
I am more interested when these 3 teams (one in particular) is locked into the "no bye" scenario and would have to win 5 games in 5 days to win the ACCT. Considering the unnamed team has only won 4 games in the past 2 and 1/2 months, 5 wins in 5 days seems undoable.

There’s an interesting wrench that could come into play here. Georgia Tech is appealing a postseason ban and while there is unlikely to be a final decision before the season ends, GT has a ton of juniors and they aren’t exactly heading towards a postseason bid this year. If GT has the appeal denied and is banned next season, you could see a potential exodus as all of those juniors would be allowed to transfer freely. Every day that goes by makes it less likely that GT will go this route. For comparison Syracuse and Louisville both self-imposed bans in early February when they went through it, and those teams were also preempting the original NCAA punishment, not dropping an appeal. But if GT does drop the appeal, that lowers the bar significantly as you only need to finish 10th out of non GT teams rather than 9th overall.

As far as the actual purpose of this thread, I won’t start to take stock of Duke’s chances for winning until after the next two. Tomorrow has the hallmarks of a letdown game after the emotional win last weekend and tough turnaround win. And then midweek, Duke has to go to Raleigh, where they’re only 2-4 vs State since 2010, and the wins were not by the teams you’d expect. They won in 2011 with no Kyrie and 2016, and lost in 2010, 2013, 2015 and 2018. If Duke can buck that trend, I think there’s a real shot for hanging a regular season banner.

ShaneRyan
02-15-2020, 08:52 PM
I was about to come here and say "I believe it's time to bring this thread back to the top," but glad to see it already happened yesterday. However, things have changed a bunch in just a day, Duke now controls its own destiny with a one-game lead in the loss column on both Louisville and FSU, and has an easier schedule than both. At this point, the odds favor us completely. It's been a decade since we had a share of the title and 14 years since we won one outright, and I for one am psyched for all the reasons mentioned above.

Acymetric
02-15-2020, 08:59 PM
Shane looks good in blue.

PS...Duke fans don't like the "regular season champions" thing only when the folks down the road win it. :)

Kind of like how ACC fans in general and unc fans in particular "stopped caring" about the ACC Tournament from around 1999 to 2011?

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
02-15-2020, 09:04 PM
I was about to come here and say "I believe it's time to bring this thread back to the top," but glad to see it already happened yesterday. However, things have changed a bunch in just a day, Duke now controls its own destiny with a one-game lead in the loss column on both Louisville and FSU, and has an easier schedule than both. At this point, the odds favor us completely. It's been a decade since we had a share of the title and 14 years since we won one outright, and I for one am psyched for all the reasons mentioned above.

What are the chances NCSU gets us once in the next month?

ShaneRyan
02-15-2020, 09:18 PM
What are the chances NCSU gets us once in the next month?

I'll put myself out there so everyone can get mad if I jinx it: I think people are a little too wrapped up in history on this one. We match up well, and I think we're peaking just in time for the road game, which should be the hardest by far. I like us to win both. I'm also not worried about our "difficult" game against Virginia, I don't think they have a prayer to enforce their style on us, we'll be happy to out-D them. Only game that scares me is Carolina at home.

SCMatt33
02-15-2020, 10:21 PM
I'll put myself out there so everyone can get mad if I jinx it: I think people are a little too wrapped up in history on this one. We match up well, and I think we're peaking just in time for the road game, which should be the hardest by far. I like us to win both. I'm also not worried about our "difficult" game against Virginia, I don't think they have a prayer to enforce their style on us, we'll be happy to out-D them. Only game that scares me is Carolina at home.

I think matchup-wise, this is tougher than it looks on paper. Duke’s biggest weakness has been turnovers and transition D. One of the big things that helped today was ND not being a team that forces turnovers and not being a team that pushes the ball. State does both. They had 21 fast break points against Syracuse this week and that was with Cuse doing a decent job not giving up steals. State only got 7 steals in the game, but got 21 fast break points. You don’t need to turn it over out at the point for them to get fast break points.

uh_no
02-16-2020, 02:15 PM
What are the chances NCSU gets us once in the next month?

about 1 in 3.

uh_no
02-16-2020, 02:30 PM
obvioulsy with duke's win and UL's loss, duke now controls its destiny to the 1 seed and outright regular season.

Pitt joined Wake, Miami, and UNC in being eliminated from everything.

5 teams with 8 losses can still share the regular season title, and the tiebreaking scenarios are still too numerous for the 1 seed.

Thinking of tiebreakers, it's unlikely that any other than duke, UL , and FSU are involved in a tiebreaker, and the scenarios are as follows:

Duke vs UL: UL by virtue of head to head win
Duke vs FSU: Duke by virtue of head to head win
UL vs FSU: FSU if FSU wins next week over UL, otherwise UL by virtue of their win against Duke
All three: Whomever wins the UL/FSU game next week will have a 2-1 record among the group and will be the 1 seed. Duke will be the 2 seed in all cases.

In terms of Byes, without GT, there will only be 2 games on day 1, pitting 14-11 and 13-12. UNC and Wake are eliminated from double-bye contention.

uh_no
02-23-2020, 09:49 PM
Duke vs UL: UL by virtue of head to head win
Duke vs FSU: Duke by virtue of head to head win
UL vs FSU: FSU if FSU wins next week over UL, otherwise UL by virtue of their win against Duke
All three: Whomever wins the UL/FSU game next week will have a 2-1 record among the group and will be the 1 seed. Duke will be the 2 seed in all cases.


updates updates!

so obviously, with our loss, we no longer are in the drivers seat for the 1 seed....but still control our destiny for a share, along with UL and FSU (though obviously, without extenuating circumstances, one of whom will play their way out of that seat).

ASSUMING duke FSU and UL win out but for the FSU/UL game, obviously we prefer FSU to beat UL, as we have the tiebreaker (the full scenarios listed above)

Only the top 4 can still get a share of the title (worst case 14-6) or the 1 seed. Everyone else is eliminated

In terms of seeding:

Clinched double bye:
The three at the top have clinched double byes, with possible finishes of 14-6 which only UVA can top. UVA, despite having a cool 3 game lead can still fall into the wednesday slot with 4 left to play. I'm not going to dig through the tiebreaking scenarios yet.

Clinched Bye:
The math on UVA is a bit tricky. In a worst case scenario, they can finish 11-9. You might say "HEY! but if GT finishes 11-9, UVA has a tiebreak, putting them 8th at worst!" Well, you'd be wrong. If all of GT, UVA, and NCSU finish at 11-9, then UVA is 1-1, GT is 2-1, and NCSU is 1-2, and GT can pass UVA in the standings. But in such a case, UVA would be in front of clemson and state anyway. So one of the 5 teams 8-8/7-9 must finish behind UVA, guaranteeing them at least a bye. In reality, they'll almost assuredly get a double bye...but that's not locked up yet. Also, GT isn't eligible anyway, so none of that math really matters. Along from that, there are too many crappy teams in the ACC for anyone else to be locking up a bye right now, though obviously the gaggle at 8-8 have the fighting chance.

Clinched playing on tuesday:
UNC. world's. smallest. violin.

tl;dr: UNC must play on tuesday, duke won't play until thursday.

sagegrouse
02-23-2020, 09:54 PM
Clinched Bye:
The math on UVA is a bit tricky. In a worst case scenario, they can finish 11-9. You might say "HEY! but if GT finishes 11-9, UVA has a tiebreak, putting them 8th at worst!" Well, you'd be wrong. If all of GT, UVA, and NCSU finish at 11-9, then UVA is 1-1, GT is 2-1, and NCSU is 1-2, and GT can pass UVA in the standings. But in such a case, UVA would be in front of clemson and state anyway. So one of the 5 teams 8-8/7-9 must finish behind UVA, guaranteeing them at least a bye. In reality, they'll almost assuredly get a double bye...but that's not locked up yet. Also, GT isn't eligible anyway, so none of that math really matters. Along from that, there are too many crappy teams in the ACC for anyone else to be locking up a bye right now, though obviously the gaggle at 8-8 have the fighting chance.

Clinched playing on tuesday:
UNC. world's. smallest. violin.

tl;dr: UNC must play on tuesday, duke won't play until thursday.

I am probably wrong about this, but isn't GT ineligible for the ACC Tournament by virtue of its ineligibility to play in the NCAA Tournament? Or did the Jackets wriggle off the hook for 2020 by an appeal?

UrinalCake
02-23-2020, 10:04 PM
I am probably wrong about this, but isn't GT ineligible for the ACC Tournament by virtue of its ineligibility to play in the NCAA Tournament? Or did the Jackets wriggle off the hook for 2020 by an appeal?

I thought that was true as well. If that is the case then UNC only needs to pass two teams to get to the #12 seed in the ACCT. In the loss column they are currently one game behind Wake and two games behind Miami and Pitt with four games left to play. I haven't looked at all of the combinations of which teams play each other, but it feels like they still mathematically have a shot at the first round bye.

tbyers11
02-23-2020, 10:05 PM
I am probably wrong about this, but isn't GT ineligible for the ACC Tournament by virtue of its ineligibility to play in the NCAA Tournament? Or did the Jackets wriggle off the hook for 2020 by an appeal?

They have filed an appeal and AFAIK that appeal has not been ruled upon by the NCAA yet. So at the current time they are still eligible to pay in Greensboro.

uh_no
02-23-2020, 10:10 PM
...
and NCSU finish at 11-9, then UVA is 1-1, GT is 2-1, and NCSU is 1-2, and GT can pass UVA in the standings. But in such a case, UVA would be in front of clemson and state anyway. So one of the 5 teams 8-8/7-9 must finish behind UVA, guaranteeing them at least a bye. In reality, they'll almost assuredly get a double bye...but that's not locked up yet. Also, GT isn't eligible anyway, so none of that math really matters. Along from that, there are too many crappy teams in the ACC for anyone else to be locking up a bye right now, though obviously the gaggle at 8-8 have the fighting chance.
...


I am probably wrong about this, but isn't GT ineligible for the ACC Tournament by virtue of its ineligibility to play in the NCAA Tournament? Or did the Jackets wriggle off the hook for 2020 by an appeal?

I thought that was correct, but apparently penalties are stayed pending appeal. Shrug. Given the NCAA's overall incompetence, I expect we'll get a decision in 8 years or so, and if you just appeal indefinitely, there'll be no penalty anyway.

-jk
02-23-2020, 10:12 PM
I am probably wrong about this, but isn't GT ineligible for the ACC Tournament by virtue of its ineligibility to play in the NCAA Tournament? Or did the Jackets wriggle off the hook for 2020 by an appeal?

If GaTech is ineligible for the ACC tourneys, do their games count for standings and tiebreakers?

-jk

uh_no
02-23-2020, 10:19 PM
If GaTech is ineligible for the ACC tourneys, do their games count for standings and tiebreakers?

-jk

I can't imagine they'd adjust everyone's record to remove the game against GT....but wonder about tiebreaks as well.

If you include GT, and then remove them and just bump everyone's seed, then it has the potential to flip the ordering of two other teams if there is a 3 way tiebreak...which is undesirable.

If you DON'T include them if tied, then how do you resolve the "record against teams from top to bottom" as the secondary tiebreak? Do you just skip over games against GT in THAT case? That's a bit weird given you have a record against them....and if they're in the standings, then you'd have to involve them in tiebreaks of their own.

We're it me, I'd say their record stays, but you don't use them in any tiebreaks they are involved in, but you DO use them for tiebreaking OTHER teams with whom they don't have the same record. It's a bit weird also as they're half involved in tiebreaks...but I don't think there's an optimal outcome here.

Given the ambiguity that the ACC's tiebreaking procedures have had from time to time, it's unsurprising that they don't necessarily explicitly handle this case and will probably YOLO it by whatever they see fit.

uh_no
02-24-2020, 09:15 PM
duke now controls the destiny to the 1 seed. In the event of a 3 way tie, FSU is the 1 seed and duke is the 2. Duke and FSU have approximately the same expected number of wins the rest of the way.

ShaneRyan
02-29-2020, 01:24 PM
duke now controls the destiny to the 1 seed. In the event of a 3 way tie, FSU is the 1 seed and duke is the 2. Duke and FSU have approximately the same expected number of wins the rest of the way.

How does the seeding work in a 3-way tie situation?

UrinalCake
02-29-2020, 02:07 PM
How does the seeding work in a 3-way tie situation?

Pretty sure you know this, but head to head record against the other two is the first tie breaker. So if Duke and Louisville were to win out while FSU drops a game, there would be a three way tie but FSU gets the #1 seed by virtue of being 2-1 against the other two schools. Duke is 1-1 and Louisville is 1-2.

The only way we get the #1 is if both FSU and Louisville lose another game (and we win out). Given the remaining schedules it is more likely that Louisville drops a game than FSU, which would bump us up to #2 but not a huge impact.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
02-29-2020, 02:12 PM
Pretty sure you know this, but head to head record against the other two is the first tie breaker. So if Duke and Louisville were to win out while FSU drops a game, there would be a three way tie but FSU gets the #1 seed by virtue of being 2-1 against the other two schools. Duke is 1-1 and Louisville is 1-2.

The only way we get the #1 is if both FSU and Louisville lose another game (and we win out). Given the remaining schedules it is more likely that Louisville drops a game than FSU, which would bump us up to #2 but not a huge impact.

I will be following FSU/Clemson with great interest.

ShaneRyan
02-29-2020, 02:22 PM
Pretty sure you know this, but head to head record against the other two is the first tie breaker. So if Duke and Louisville were to win out while FSU drops a game, there would be a three way tie but FSU gets the #1 seed by virtue of being 2-1 against the other two schools. Duke is 1-1 and Louisville is 1-2.

The only way we get the #1 is if both FSU and Louisville lose another game (and we win out). Given the remaining schedules it is more likely that Louisville drops a game than FSU, which would bump us up to #2 but not a huge impact.

Got it. yeah, my question was how they determine the seeds in case of a 3-way tie. A little ridiculous, since Duke never had a chance to go 2-1, but oh well, gotta earn it outright.

scottdude8
02-29-2020, 04:11 PM
Back in play! What a crazy finish and incredible play by Clemson at the end.

Let’s do our part tonight!!!

Wahoo2000
02-29-2020, 04:17 PM
Back in play! What a crazy finish and incredible play by Clemson at the end.

Let’s do our part tonight!!!

Crazy finish indeed. FSU gets a steal breakaway to take a 1 point lead with about 18 seconds left, but wait.... inadvertent whistle. Still, alternating possession awards FSU the ball and they end up scoring anyway. Now, FSU actually leads by one with about 7-8 seconds left. Clemson runs the other way and makes a toughly contested lay-in with 1 sec left. FSU's full court heave misses badly. Tigers win.

I'm sure some Noles fans will want to complain about the inadvertent whistle, but it actually ended up benefiting them as they eventually took the lead anyway with way LESS time for Clemson to score. Credit to the Tigers, they were able to score anyway. Noles have to come up with one more stop and couldn't do it.

Louisville, FSU, Duke and (unbelievably) UVA all alive for the 1 seed in the conf tourney. This is more like the ACC baskatball I remember. Hope a pretty middling noncon and bleh Jan/early Feb turns into a terrific March.

Dukehk
02-29-2020, 04:40 PM
We could get a share of the ACC regular season title if we win all our remaining games and if louisville do too, but I believe the tie breaker is with them as they beat us?

So I guess that means we will still end up with a #2 seed in the ACC tournament and have to go through FSU most likely.

scottdude8
02-29-2020, 04:46 PM
Regardless of the seeding, a tie for the best record in the regular season = a banner. Which is a great accomplishment, period

Troublemaker
02-29-2020, 04:46 PM
We could get a share of the ACC regular season title if we win all our remaining games and if louisville do too, but I believe the tie breaker is with them as they beat us?

So I guess that means we will still end up with a #2 seed in the ACC tournament and have to go through FSU most likely.

Nope, FSU wins the tiebreaker because they were 2-1 combined against Duke and Lville. Duke was 1-1 vs the other two. Lville was 1-2.

Troublemaker
02-29-2020, 04:49 PM
Regardless of the seeding, a tie for the best record in the regular season = a banner. Which is a great accomplishment, period

It would be nice to get a share of a regular season title since we haven't accomplished that since 2010.

Still, just based on experience, Duke fans will be very upset/sad if we don't make the Final Four. It's really all about the NCAA tourney.

Wahoo2000
02-29-2020, 04:53 PM
Nope, FSU wins the tiebreaker because they were 2-1 combined against Duke and Lville. Duke was 1-1 vs the other two. Lville was 1-2.

Predictive metrics have FSU@ND being just as big of a toss-up as this FSU-Clemson game was. It's all FAR from over. Honestly, I wouldn't be shocked if the 1 seed (whoever it may be) ends up at 15-5.

FSU certainly still in the driver's seat, as they can rely on UVA/UNC/NCSU to be tough outs for Duke and Louisville. If I had to guess, I think FSU will get right at ND, and hoping my Hoos can take out Louisville on senior day. I think it ends up with FSU 14-4, Duke/Louiville 2/3 in some order, and UVA at 4, though strangely, it's still possible for UVA to get the 1 seed (though admittedly quite unlikely).