UNC, Not Buying

[RockyMtDevil]

While UNC is the writers darling this year, I just am not buying it. I do not believe they will be as strong as last year's hole's team, especially with the absence of Terry and Wright.

Terry hit every big shot for the holes last year, he was a defensive stopper and seemed to be the glue for the team. Wright was obviously amazing and without these two, just how pray tell will they be as good or even better than last season?

Where is the Upside of this team? Psycho T is what he is, he's not getting any better. Lawson is a liability from outside, Ellington is an erratic shooter, Copeland and Stepheson are big bodies but lack explosiveness, Ginyard is a poor man's Nate James.

I realize Carolina will win a lot of games this year, but it appears their margin for error is much smaller than even last season's. They remind me of us a couple years ago when we ran up against LSU. Three good, if not great players, but a small margin for error. What if Pyscho gets in foul trouble? They are done.

Am I crazy, I just feel we have much more options than they do this year and believe we have a far greater upside than unc, at least with a ton of moveable parts.

RockyMtDevil

[Stray Gator]

...What if Pyscho gets in foul trouble? They are done.

Am I crazy...

RockyMtDevil

If you're expecting to see TH get into foul trouble, at least in any games worked by ACC officials, then either you haven't been paying close attention for the past two seasons or you are, if not crazy, drifting perilously close to the delusional zone. ;)

[kydevil]

What if Pyscho gets in foul trouble? They are done.

RockyMtDevil

Well Stepheson and Thompson aren't too bad of backups. I believe they are on the same level as Lance Thomas. Thomas has a little more skill but doesn't have the body to bang like those two.

I think your forgetting Quentin Thomas, he is the best backup point guard in the nation :D

[jipops]

You seem to be discounting the improvement that talented players such as Lawson and Ellington will likely show in their sophmore seasons. Thompson showed glimpses of being a very skilled big man last season, he should fill Wright's spot just fine though he does lack the defensive abilities of Wright.

Hansbrough not getting any better? How much better does he have to be for unc to win it all?

I look at UNC's roster and see a very formidable lineup. They are balanced, experienced, with quality depth at every position. Their second string could basically hang with the upper half of the ACC. The only question marks for them are how much better will they be defensively and will everyone stay happy sacrificing shots here and there. Looks like far fewer question marks than what we have. Otherwise, it's another ridiculously loaded team with few weaknesses that will make Roy look good.

For the ACC it's UNC then everybody else. Nationally, they'll be a top 5 team all year if not #1.

[cajundevil74]

...but how good? I can see them losing in the Sweet 16. I can also see them cutting down the nets. I think Duke will be able to get one (maybe two) game(s) from them.

UNC has some issues they will need to address - Terry was a very important piece to the UNC team last year that I don't think Ellington, Green or Ginyard can replace - at least not immediately. I actually think Wright's loss may help UNC - moves Hansblahblah back to focal point and allows a big sturdy guy to bang on other team's bigs. However, UNC will not have the automatic two points that Wright could provide ... should be interesting.

In all ... I don't think you are losing your mind. Of course that comes from a deranged Duke fan...

[sandinmyshoes]

I think the reason UNC is the writer's darlings is because they are the safe pick to be in the mix both for the ACC and national championships. They may not win either, but they'll be in the heat of the chase.

I did read somewhere that Lawson shot 36% from the three point line. That is not bad for a freshman and hardly seems to make him a liability from the out side. I am not sure, however, if that percentage is even correct or how many he actually took.

In addition to the development Thompson is supposed to have shown in whatever summer games he played in, I do worry about Hansblahblah developing a mid range jumper. It is something he is supposed to be working on, evidently with an eye towards improving his stock as a pro player. His free throw shooting and that one three he hit his freshman year against Duke shows enough potential to worry me.

However, UNC's overall three point shooting and their lack of consistent defensive intensity gives me hope they can be had. And there is a legitimate question about who takes the pressure shot when there isn't time or opportunity to get the ball inside.

That is why the games are played.

[Patrick Yates]

I love that Duke's woes in the post will be solved by player improvement, while at the same time it is an accepted conclusion that players at other teams (players that actually produced results on the court last year) will stay exactly the same.

Roy said all last year that Lawson was a better shooter than Felton, that he only needed to do it more. I have to beleive that both Lawson and Ellington spent the summer working on their games, specifically their outside shooting. I don't know that they will be deadeyes this year, but I believe their shooting will be better this year than last year.

And Frasor is finally healthy enough to be a solid backup and outside sniper. As we saw with Paulus, foot and leg injuries simply do not heal completely during the season if one continues to play on it, as did Paulus AND Frasor.

As for Hans, the rumblings from UNC are that he worked assiduously on a midrange J this summer. His bread and butter is still in the low post, but he will be able to step out and keep Defenders honest.

Thompson should be a beast, sooner rather than later. He was a stud on for one of the USA teams this summer, and is in fantastic shape, down to 235. I haven't heard anything about stephenson, but a summer practicing and working out should show.

For all the talk about them missing Terry, he had a subpar Sr year. His shooting was off, and he seemed out of place all year. His D will be missed, but I beleive one of the wings will step up and be a go to defender.

Regardless, UNC can be an extremely poor Defensive team (which Roy won't let happen) and UNC will still blow a lot of teams away. Thier offensive talent is off the charts.

And they are hungry. They were every bit as humiliated as Duke was about how they ended their season. They blew a lead late and played like I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this. down the stretch, and they heard about it from EVERYBODY. They will be playing this season with a big chip on their shoulders. They want a NC more than they wanted it last year, and they now understand what it will take to win it all, unlike last year. Last year, Frosh were key roll players, and most of them are back (they lost a potentially great one, but most other teams took a step back, or still aren't good enough to close the gap). Those frosh are now experienced.

I only see 2-3 teams in the ACC even capable of beating UNC, and that assumes the opposition plays a good to great game, while UNC has a middling game.

Duke has the best shot of beating them, with Clemson close behind. NCSU's strength, the post, is UNC's strength as well. And NCSU doesn't have the guards to play with UNC, at all. Every other team will get destroyed by UNC.

And the teams I listed COULD beat UNC. For the best contender, Duke, I put those odds at no better than 60-40, and that assumes that we get capable post play out of Zoubs and Lance. Even if we are on our games, it will be hard to beat UNC. UNC could have an off day and still beat every other team in the league. (unless that off day includes god awful shooting like 2-18 from three pt land, and under 60% from the line at the same time. That is not an off day, that is horrible day, and on those days, anything can happen. UNC won't have any horrible days this year)

Don't let hate cloud your analysis.

Patrick Yates

[gw67]

Patrick is on the mark, IMO. They may not be a great outside shooting team but Ellington, Lawson and Frasor should be more that adequate, particularly, when you consider their inside game. By the way, Thompson was one of the stars on the USA under 19 team (see link) and I expect for him to be a solid inside player for them this year.

http://www.usabasketball.com/men/2007/07_mu19_stats.html

gw67

[riverside6]

I think one area that will make a significant difference this year is the lack of a true shot blocker. Last season, defensively the Heels could be aggressive in the lanes on the ball and have Brandan Wright (http://www.scacchoops.com/forms/players.asp?search=brandan wright) bail them out. Hansbrough (http://www.scacchoops.com/forms/players.asp?search=tyler hansbrough) is certainly not a shot blocker and the jury is still out on Thompson (http://www.scacchoops.com/forms/players.asp?search=deon thompson) and Stephenson (http://www.scacchoops.com/forms/players.asp?search=alex stephenson), although neither have that reputation.

[dukelifer]

Carolina will be very good. I don't think they are scary good but they will be the team to beat in the ACC because Hansbrough knows how to use his body and get to the line and is just stronger than everyone else- but that is what you expect from a 22 year old. But I doubt they will be blowing teams out- they will have a smaller margin of error this year and an injury here or there will be tough to make up. Losing Terry, Wright and lets not forget Miller with no major pickup makes them a less experienced and thinner team overall. The loss of Wright will be made up - but I would be more concerned about their outside shooting. Miller and Terry hit huge shots last year. Ellington is good- but unless he becomes a JJ- they may struggle to get threes in big moments. They will get tested every night and someone other than Hansbrough will need to be very clutch for them in close games. We shall see. Should be a very interesting year.

[Troublemaker]

Yeah, jipops and Patrick got it right. We expect guys like Henderson, Paulus, Scheyer, Thomas, etc to be improved, so we should expect UNC's players to be improved as well. As PY mentioned, I would not bet my mortgage against Hansbrough coming back this season with a 15-footer. With his work ethic?

That said, if I had a vote in the AP poll, I would've put UCLA #1 to begin the season. They've accomplished more than other teams obviously and they have a post game this season. Louisville arguably has the most NBA talent (very under the radar) in the country and could be the best by March. Memphis might have added the single best talent in the country in Rose and return everyone from back-to-back E8 team. Etc Etc. My point is there are a bunch of very good teams at the top of the polls this season, and if UNC wants to achieve their goals, they'll have to earn it. Within the ACC, Duke can stand up to them this season (so can State and perhaps others, I think), and nationally, their path certainly won't be like Florida's in '06 where they pummel a depleted field.

Ellington is the key to UNC's season, imo. I'm pretty sure Hansbrough will be great and ably supported inside by Thompson and Stepheson. I'm pretty sure Lawson will be one of the best PGs in the country and ably backed up by Frasor and QT. I'm pretty sure Ginyard and Green will provide excellent wing defense for them. Ellington, however, is the question mark. Last season, he was a UNC hater's best friend, often forcing things outside the flow of the offense, missing clutch shots, and overall, just being a rally-killer for them. If he can become the efficient wing scorer he was predicted to be out of HS, then UNC can attack folks at all 3 levels, and they'll be as good as anyone in the country. Needless to say, I hope he fails. Miserably.

[whereinthehellami]

I think they are the team to be beat, they've earned that. I think they are underestimating their loses (Wright, terry, and even Miller) and we are underestimating their player growth. But.....

Hansborough has been lucky on the injury front and his backups don't have the heart and/or drive that Hansborough does (who does?). What happens if the heels lose their heart and soul?

Chemistry issues. There were alot of rumors/smoke coming from that side of town last year regarding Lawson and his relationship with Roy and the rest of the team. They say its fixed, I say we'll see. hansborough is the epitome of hard work and Lawson is, umm, how do you say.....you know...not the epitome of hard work. I'll be curious to see how that playes out.

Ellington and his confidence. You can have everything in the world, athletiscm, agility, flawless technique, and all the intagibles, but if you don't have confidence than you're going to come up short. Granted it was just one year but Ellington has to prove himself under alot of pressure this year. He wouldn't be the first guy to come up short after being thrown into the pressure cooker before he was ready for it.

[DukeDude]

Ellington is the key to UNC's season, imo. I'm pretty sure Hansbrough will be great and ably supported inside by Thompson and Stepheson. I'm pretty sure Lawson will be one of the best PGs in the country and ably backed up by Frasor and QT. I'm pretty sure Ginyard and Green will provide excellent wing defense for them. Ellington, however, is the question mark. Last season, he was a UNC hater's best friend, often forcing things outside the flow of the offense, missing clutch shots, and overall, just being a rally-killer for them. If he can become the efficient wing scorer he was predicted to be out of HS, then UNC can attack folks at all 3 levels, and they'll be as good as anyone in the country. Needless to say, I hope he fails. Miserably.

That is exactly my take on UNC. They have the size, point guard, and wing defenders to make a run at the NC. Lawson and Hansbrough are 2 of the best players at their position. What they really need is a reliable perimieter scoring, and unless Ellington steps up, I think they will fall short in March.

[dukestheheat]

rocky mt devil,

i don't like the holes either, but a couple points i do need to make here. first, Hansbrough is an awesome player and we may have trouble stopping him. we did last year, and we might this year. i'm just sayin'.

and, mr. lawson left some of our guys outside cameron and the silly dean dome last year when we played them. I highly suspect that we'll see a certain freshman on Duke guarding Lawson this year; Lawson may not be the greatest shooter but he runs that show, is a bullet and a great penetrator, and the very last thing we need is for him to push the ball into the paint, dish it and then start getting either Thomas or Singler in foul trouble.

So Mr. Lawson, meet Mr. Nolan SMITH!

my $.02, dth.

[sagegrouse]

I am of two completely different minds when it comes to forecasting sports results.

(1) "That's why they play the games" -- i.e., why would anyone want to forecast or be interested in someone else's guesses about the season yet to be played?

(2) "That's what sportswriters do!" -- Tony Kornheiser on PTI, when someone (not MW) challenged some completely wild forecast about the NBA or NFL by saying: "How can you possibly make that prediction when so little is known."

I hope the Heels stink (I bet they do for at least 2-3 games sometime); I hope the Devils are fabulous; and I can't wait for the season to start!

sagegrouse
'Neither sage nor grousy today'

[gw67]

heat - Do you expect Smith to stop Lawson by himself? This is not one-on-one NBA play. IMO, the Duke team defense may prevent him from penetrating but I will be very surpried if Smith by himself shuts Lawson down. This is not a knock on Smith but just a comment on the expectations many have for this youngster. Robinson (Kansas), Collison (UCLA) and Walton (Mich State) were proclaimed by some to be shutdown defenders last year but I recall Robinson and Collison being beaten often during the NCAA's last year. In the half court, you need to take away something from Lawson and I suspect that most teams will play off him and let him prove that he can hit the outside jump shot. If he is successful, you overplay on his weak hand and force him to use the off hand. Lastly, you try to funnel him into an area where you have help. The really top offensive players, like Lawson, will still score but the best defensive players make them work hard for their points and play defense as part of the team. In the open court, he is extremely difficult to stop because of his speed with the ball.

gw67

[hondoheel]

Two points:

1. Thompson and Stephenson are very much shot blockers.

2. The addition of Graves more than makes up for the loss of Miller. In fact, the loss of Miller is addition by subtraction. Roy loved using him but he couldn't guard anyone and airballed two thirds of his threes. He and a gimpy Frasor together were brutal. IMHO that combo lost the Georgetown, Gonzaga, and Maryland games, and nearly several others.

[greybeard]

Lawson's great on run outs. Otherwise, I'm not sure he has shown me much. Can't shoot particularly well. Breaking down the defense in the half court. Does he really remind anybody of Paul? Let's not fall all over ourselves about him, just yet, because, hello, if the H man is your player-of-the-year, where are you running?

Wright was cat like with his ability to finish on the secondary break and even join the front runners. Don't know if they replace that. Without him as a shot blocker, or backline recoverer/stopper, can Roy amp up the pressure like he did last year without getting hurt? I don't know the answer to that.

If not, and the game is played in the half court, Roy has himself a real nice team. So do other people, including K. Stay tuned; I know I am.

[mepanchin]

UNC will be very good but I think they will just not be without weaknesses.

I echo sentiments about outside shooting. Terry shot 43% from behind the arc last year. Lawson, Ellington will need to step up their outside shooting and a third outside option would help as well. Ginyard and Green have shown almost no offensive ability in their two years, so I'm not super confident that they will suddenly step up huge (usually improvements are pretty incremental).

I also don't think Wright will be particularly missed defensively - but he will offensively. UNC was a pretty bad shotblocking team last year, mainly because in spite of Wright's long arms and athleticism, he was really not that good of a shotblocker, blocking only about 6% of the opposing team's shots while playing. He must look like Hasheem Thabeet next to Hansbrough though, who has blocked 2.4% and 1.5% of shots in his two years respectively. UNC's defense was built on pretty solid all around ball defense, causing a fair number of turnovers (nothing extraordinary) and limiting 2nd shots very well. It's also worth noting, therefore, that Terry was actually UNC's best defensive rebounder.

Offensively, Wright was a force, and Thompson would need to have an amazing season indeed to equal the offensive threat that Wright was. As an 18 year old, Brandan turned the ball over almost never while shooting almost 65% from the field and using 21% of the team's possessions while he was playing (by contrast, Thompson used less than 18% when he played).

I anticipate that for UNC to be as good as they possibly can, they will be a more perimeter oriented team than they were last year and will exhibit superior floor balance mixing slashers, shooters and inside scorers. That being said, UNC under Roy has not typically been one prone to shooting many 3s and will probably keep pounding it into Hansbrough and Thompson for most of the season. This will work well against a lot of teams, but on a cold shooting night and without a dominating perimeter defense or shotblocker, they can certainly be beaten.

[Uncle Drew]

Well on paper to me it looks like UNC will sweep Duke and most of if not all of the ACC. Everyone else lost their key player and while they lost leadership they didn't lose much else in my book. Frankly it's going to be an ugly season to watch as far as UNC goes, but we do have ONE thing in our favor. I can remember MANY years Kansas was ranked in the top 5 if not #1 all year long and made great runs in their conference. But come NCAA time they either choked or ran into a hotter team. Roy never won a title with his own recruits. And I for one pray to God that streak continues. Here's hoping for mononucleosis to hit the entire team in late February!:D

[Lord Ash]

Eh, I am not that impressed. I love Tyler, and they have some nice players otherwise, but... eh. I don't think they are a lock for the ACC title at all, and Carolina can at times have some strange chemistry problems. We'll see if this happens this year, but I think we can easily take at least a game from them and we have a decent shot at the ACC.

[Troublemaker]

Well on paper to me it looks like UNC will sweep Duke and most of if not all of the ACC. Everyone else lost their key player and while they lost leadership they didn't lose much else in my book. Frankly it's going to be an ugly season to watch as far as UNC goes, but we do have ONE thing in our favor. I can remember MANY years Kansas was ranked in the top 5 if not #1 all year long and made great runs in their conference. But come NCAA time they either choked or ran into a hotter team. Roy never won a title with his own recruits. And I for one pray to God that streak continues. Here's hoping for mononucleosis to hit the entire team in late February!:D

Nah, they won't be that dominant. I think they'll be your typical 1st or 2nd place ACC team that will strongly contend for the FF and NC, and they'll certainly have their share of blowouts, but they're not going to 16-0 or 15-1 the league and I'm not going to fear our games with them nor do I think most of their games will be ugly to watch. I agree with those that say Wright and Terry gave them that little extra oomph athletically that made them scary to watch last season. This season, not so much, although Lawson will still be a terror on the break. Overall, I think they'll be a more consistent and better team than last season but not as scary to watch operate, if that makes sense. And again, I think they'll get 13 wins or less in the league. They'll be a first or second place team but not a memorably great ACC team, imo.

[Classof06]

I think UNC is very good and should be on the list of contenders to win a NC, but I think the hype is a bit much. To whoever predicted them to go through the ACC undefeated, that is just ridiculous. That will not happen.

I expect them to be good, but with the changes they've had, I need to see them before I crown them the favorites. I think UCLA would give UNC all it could handle; you think Hansbrough would have his way with Kevin Love? I don't either. I think a team like Memphis, who brings everyone back while adding a piece like Derrick Rose should get more consideration than a UNC team that lost Wright and Reyshawn Terry. Again, UNC will be good, quite good, but they have a lot of players that will be expected to increase production and that is never a lock.

[Lord Ash]

Actually I think Tyler will have his way with almost everyone. However, I don't think the rest of the guys will help deliver some flawless season. They could certainly win it all; I just don't think they will dominate as totally as some think.

[freedevil]

I dunno if this is sacreligious, but I think it will take an enormous upset for UNC to not cut down the nets in March. And I do mean enormous.

I would put my disdain for all things Carolina blue up against anyone - I even root for their women's field hockey team to lose. That being said, Hansbrough is easily the best player in the country, easily, all of his travelling and flailing arms included. I dunno what games many of you were watching last year with Lawson, but he got to the rim at will.

They will lose 5 games max. Hopefully they lose their last one.

[sandinmyshoes]

Let me see if I understand all this. Lawson, and you made me go and look this up, shot 35.something from the three point line last year, and 50% overall is not a good shooter. We have to hope Hansblahblah is injured. We have to hope that they have chemistry issues. Even though last year some here were saying they would have chemistry issues because they were too deep, but this year they aren't quite as deep.

I think there is a lot of wishful thinking involved in all this. To me it looks as if a lack of improvement in team defense and a lack of improvement in team three point shooting is the best chance for the rest of the ACC, and not all this grabbing at straws.

[Jumbo]

My take on UNC:
-Anyone knocking Hansbrough, Lawson and Ellington is smoking something. Hansbrough is an elite college player, and Lawson and Ellington were good as frosh and have major potential.
-Deon Thompson has the potential to be an excellent low-post scorer.
-Marcus Ginyard is severely underrated and UNC will benefit from his defense in the starting lineup.

I do have some concerns, though:
-Even though Hansbrough put up big numbers against Duke, Brandan Wright was the toughest matchup. He was a difference-maker, and while I like Thompson, he's not close to being in Wright's class as an athlete. Wright's length and quickness erased a lot of UNC's mistakes, and I'm not sure how good UNC's interior defense will be. Plus, he was just lethal in transition.
-I'm not sure how well Thompson and Hansbrough will play off one another. I know UNC's thing is to always play two bigs, but both of those guys are most comfortable in the paint, with the ball. Wright could be a factor without the ball -- he could get you 15 points without running a play for him, just by cutting to the hoop, running the floor, and crashing the offensive boards. It could get a little clogged in the lane.
-Perimeter shooting could be an issue behind Ellington. Lawson may have improved. Frasor isn't a great shooter. They'll miss Miller and Terry. Ginyard isn't a shooter and I don't love Danny Green in that role either.

Carolina should be very good. But last year's group had more talent.

[Jumbo]

2. The addition of Graves more than makes up for the loss of Miller. In fact, the loss of Miller is addition by subtraction. Roy loved using him but he couldn't guard anyone and airballed two thirds of his threes. He and a gimpy Frasor together were brutal. IMHO that combo lost the Georgetown, Gonzaga, and Maryland games, and nearly several others.

You own coach has lauded Miller for his defense. In fact, one of the turning points of the game in Cameron was when Miller came in. To that point, Duke's backcourt was having its way with UNC. Miller's tenacity and ability to move his feet changed that. Saying he "couldn't guard anyone" is absolutely wrong.

[AnimalFriendly]

If anything Roy deserves more credit, not less, for winning the '05 title with (mostly) players who weren't his "own" recruits. Coaching them, getting them to buy into his system, etc., etc. after all that went on during the Doherty years couldn't have been all sweetness and light. Winning under those circumstances was just as laudable, if not more so, than if he'd recruited every one of those players. Just as an aside, Valvano didn't recruit the three players most heavily responsible for his NCCA title - a fact never highly publicized and forgotten by most people.

[dukestheheat]

gw67-

my point is that nolan smith is the best equipped guard on duke to slow down lawson. lawson completely embarrassed us many times last year; this year, we have the horse to at least slow him down and to help thwart his lateral movement. smith is a very strong and quick defender who, when beaten off the dribble, can recover and at least compete with the player to the hoop.

so when we play versus carolina or other teams with the lightning quick guards, duke is going to be much, much more competitive if we run Nolan Smith at PG and then run Paulus off screens so he can pop it up and score for Duke. That's where I see Paulus helping Duke most this year.

dth.

[cajundevil74]

I think Ellington is a question mark. He was not as good as advertised as a Frosh, and is lacking athleticism. I am not scared of him at all - in fact, I'd much rather have Scheyer than Ellington.

[hondoheel]

You own coach has lauded Miller for his defense. In fact, one of the turning points of the game in Cameron was when Miller came in. To that point, Duke's backcourt was having its way with UNC. Miller's tenacity and ability to move his feet changed that. Saying he "couldn't guard anyone" is absolutely wrong.

Oh I know Roy loved him, and he hustled and always tried to get right up on his man. But he was too slow to stay with quick guards and so short that taller guards (Fells, Morrow, Raivio etc) shot right over him. I'm not surprised he was able to stay in front of Paulus. I'm hoping that this year Roy will HAVE to play QT more, who is much, much better and more athletic defender.

[freedevil]

Oh I know Roy loved him, and he hustled and always tried to get right up on his man. But he was too slow to stay with quick guards and so short that taller guards (Fells, Morrow, Raivio etc) shot right over him. I'm not surprised he was able to stay in front of Paulus. I'm hoping that this year Roy will HAVE to play QT more, who is much, much better and more athletic defender.

Hondo, we've had this debate before, so I won't laugh at you too hard this time (see the Board Decorum rules). Also, see my post on page 2 of this thread so that you know I do have an incredible amount of respect for the talent of this year's UNC team: they are my incredibly reluctant pick to win the national championship. HOWEVER, "QT" will have very very very little to do with UNC's success this year. He is simply not good at basketball, period.

Back to the subject at hand, UNC will be extremely good. Lawson will be scary good, hopefully not good enough where UNC wins it all, but individually good enough where he goes pro.

[Bob Green]

Two points:

1. Thompson and Stephenson are very much shot blockers.

2. The addition of Graves more than makes up for the loss of Miller. In fact, the loss of Miller is addition by subtraction. Roy loved using him but he couldn't guard anyone and airballed two thirds of his threes. He and a gimpy Frasor together were brutal. IMHO that combo lost the Georgetown, Gonzaga, and Maryland games, and nearly several others.

In regard to the Georgetown loss, I find your statement incredulous. Now I enjoy your posts and I hate Georgetown to the point that I was pulling for UNC to win so this is not a "Carolina hater" post but I would love to hear your explanation for blaming the loss on Miller and Frasor.

http://www.sportsline.com/collegebasketball/gamecenter/playbyplay/NCAAB_20070325_GTOWN@NC

The play-by-play clearly shows that in the last 10 minutes of regulation, Tyler Hansbrough, Brandon Wright, Reyshawn Terry, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, & Danny Green missed shots. Most of those named missed multiple shots. Miller and Frasor didn't miss or make shots because they weren't in the game.

Personally, I believe Carolina lost the game due to poor coaching. Ol' Roy lost control of the team and the players were jacking up shots from all over the place with no regard for protecting their double-digit lead. Moreover, the wrong combination of players were on the court. If Roy Williams had yanked the trigger happy Danny Green off the court and inserted Deon Thompson into the line-up, Carolina would have won the game.

Anxiously awaiting your explanation...

[gw67]

Bob - My memory of the UNC-Georgetown game matched yours and I looked up the box score. Frasor played 2 minutes and had one assist, Miller played 14 minutes and made the only three that he shot. Lawson and Ellington shot 4-20 and had a number of turnovers. It seems to be the "in thing" to throw your white guards under the bus. I note that Williams stated that Miller was his most consistent defensive guard the last two years although he seemed to lose his shot in his senior year.

gw67

[hondoheel]

In regard to the Georgetown loss, I find your statement incredulous. Now I enjoy your posts and I hate Georgetown to the point that I was pulling for UNC to win so this is not a "Carolina hater" post but I would love to hear your explanation for blaming the loss on Miller and Frasor.

http://www.sportsline.com/collegebasketball/gamecenter/playbyplay/NCAAB_20070325_GTOWN@NC

The play-by-play clearly shows that in the last 10 minutes of regulation, Tyler Hansbrough, Brandon Wright, Reyshawn Terry, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, & Danny Green missed shots. Most of those named missed multiple shots. Miller and Frasor didn't miss or make shots because they weren't in the game.

Personally, I believe Carolina lost the game due to poor coaching. Ol' Roy lost control of the team and the players were jacking up shots from all over the place with no regard for protecting their double-digit lead. Moreover, the wrong combination of players were on the court. If Roy Williams had yanked the trigger happy Danny Green off the court and inserted Deon Thompson into the line-up, Carolina would have won the game.

Anxiously awaiting your explanation...

Bob, that game was not just lost in the last 10 minutes. It was lost over the last 32 minutes of the game, when Carolina had AMPLE opportunity to blow the game wide open. Thomas came in and made 2 beautiful assists for layups in 2 minutes late in the first half, then rode the pine the rest of the way as the offense stagnated and settled for jumpers.

[gw67]

heat - I like Smith and, indeed, he may be able to give Lawson some trouble on the defensive end; however, I don't recall Lawson having great games against Duke last year. He scored 15 points in one game and 12 in the other. I would not say that he embarassed us.

I only saw Smith play one game on TV and he looked like a fine, young player. I expect that he will play a bunch of minutes and have a decent year for a freshman.

gw67

[dukestheheat]

gw67-

while he's not the scoring machine, lawson is the proverbial 'bullet' that we could not match on the defensive end last year. he regularly blew right by our defense as a whole and in particular whomever was directly guarding him. right now smith is the only player on duke at the guard spot that has the athleticism to consistently stay with lawson is my point (no pun intended).

dth.

[Troublemaker]

Bob, that game was not just lost in the last 10 minutes. It was lost over the last 32 minutes of the game, when Carolina had AMPLE opportunity to blow the game wide open. Thomas came in and made 2 beautiful assists for layups in 2 minutes late in the first half, then rode the pine the rest of the way as the offense stagnated and settled for jumpers.

Haha, toe-may-toe, toe-mah-toe, I guess. Your team was outscored 31-6 at the end of the game to blow a double-digit lead. I'm pretty sure 99% of observers would say UNC lost the game in the last 10 minutes. Sure, having a bigger lead going down the stretch would've helped, but so would having Georgetown's bus driver forget the directions from the hotel to the arena before the game. You might as well say the game was lost when Georgetown didn't forfeit due to bus driver incompetence. 31-6. Thirty-one to six. That's why you lost. Let that memory taint every game that UNC plays this season.

[hondoheel]

I was disappointed in the way that game played out but I didn't have high expectations of UNC winning the title last year. No shame losing in the elite 8, especially considering what happened to some other high seeds.

[Troublemaker]

I was disappointed in the way that game played out but I didn't have high expectations of UNC winning the title last year. No shame losing in the elite 8, especially considering what happened to some other high seeds.

It was actually a great year for high seeds. Except for Wisconsin, all the top 2 seeds made it to the Elite 8, and the Badgers were replaced by 3 seed Oregon. Two #1 seeds and two #2 seeds made it to the Final Four. And while you say now that you didn't have high expectations for UNC last season, you're either much more conservative than your brethren wrt expectations or you're lying to yourself. High expectations for UNC last season were deserved. You guys were the most efficient team in the country last season ( http://www.kenpom.com/stats.php?y=2007&s=14 ) and you would've been about a 2-pt favorite against Florida in the championship game had you made it there. While there's no shame in losing in the Elite 8, it surely hurts a lot to lose there. It's obviously the "cutoff point" between a good season and a great one, and you lost it by getting outscored 31-6 down the stretch. This season is another season of high expectations. When UNC gets into another battle with a team that can stand up to the bully, will UNC get 31-6'd again? That will be in the back of your mind all season.

[hondoheel]

That game won't be in the back of my mind at all. I do know, and knew many years before that game, that no lead is safe. And yes, my expectations were lowered last season by the way the team played all season long. They were not a dominant team. Plus they were playing with an ill Rey Terry, who had saved the team's bacon several times down the stretch last year.

[Patrick Yates]

Georgetown was a team chock full of experienced, talented players who had been in numerous close, "big" games. They stormed back to beat a talented, if inexperienced, UNC squad.

In Han's frosh year, the outmanned Heels went out fairly early in the NCAA. As was expected given the good but shallow talent roster.

Last year was the first time Hans's class, and the Frosh, had to deal with the scrutiny and pressure of big expectations. Also, they didn't really know how to win on that stage. They didn't understand what it would take to win.

Now they do. Many here on the board point to the G-town game as emblematic on some percieved flaw within this year's UNC team. By that logic, if last year's finish is relevant to this year, Duke is in trouble.

I think that last year's loss has stuck with the Heels, much like Duke's March Swoon has motivated this year's squad. Many UNC fans were disgusted with that finish, and the players, and were not shy about making their feelings known. And after that game, the players really had no way to defend themselves.

That loss lit a fire under UNC. I think it will drive them all year long, and that gives me pause. It this UNC team is focused, they will be tough for anyone to beat, including Duke. By March, Memphis could beat them (if that team doesn't get fat and soft on weak Conf-USA fodder), or UCLA could. But a driven UNC could well cut down the nets for the 2nd time in 4 years. Let's all hope that the loss makes them doubt themselves. But, it could just drive them to greater heights.

Patrick Yates

[cforconservative]

A sophomore Deon Thompson is much much better than a freshman Brandan Wright. He had twice as many post moves than Wright last year and has worked hard this summer.

[Troublemaker]

That game won't be in the back of my mind at all. I do know, and knew many years before that game, that no lead is safe. And yes, my expectations were lowered last season by the way the team played all season long. They were not a dominant team. Plus they were playing with an ill Rey Terry, who had saved the team's bacon several times down the stretch last year.

Fair enough. I'll take your word for it that the game will not be in the back of your mind when UNC gets into another tough game in the NCAAs this season. You should hope it's not in the back of your players' minds.

[mepanchin]

A sophomore Deon Thompson is much much better than a freshman Brandan Wright. He had twice as many post moves than Wright last year and has worked hard this summer.

Yea Lance Thomas worked hard this summer too - now he's as good as Chris Bosh.

Seriously though Deon Thompson had turnover problems and shot almost 10% worse from the field than Wright did. He isn't going to instantly go from turning it over on 22-23% of his possessions and shooting 55% from the field on 18% team possessions to using 21+%, turning it over 14-15% of his possessions and shooting almost 65% in a year... or ever. Thompson is a good big to have but Wright was a sublime offensive force last year. Ain't happening.

[Troublemaker]

Last year was the first time Hans's class, and the Frosh, had to deal with the scrutiny and pressure of big expectations. Also, they didn't really know how to win on that stage. They didn't understand what it would take to win.


PY -- I'm mostly just needling our Heel friend about their painful loss to G'town, as is my duty as a Duke fan. However, this whole "they didn't know what it would take to win" thing strikes me as funny. Here's a hint: Don't get outscored 31-6 at the end of the game. And I'd like to see some evidence that G'town was more experienced in big games or whatever. I honestly don't know.

[cforconservative]

Yea Lance Thomas worked hard this summer too - now he's as good as Chris Bosh.

Seriously though Deon Thompson had turnover problems and shot almost 10% worse from the field than Wright did. He isn't going to instantly go from turning it over on 22-23% of his possessions and shooting 55% from the field on 18% team possessions to using 21+%, turning it over 14-15% of his possessions and shooting almost 65% in a year... or ever. Thompson is a good big to have but Wright was a sublime offensive force last year. Ain't happening.

Never said he was going to be NPOY but he will be better as a sophomore than Brandan was as a freshmen IMO.
Yes Wright was very good offensively but he doesn't have the post moves Thompson has. 99% of Wright's points were dunks and 2 feet frmo the basket. Deon actually has a turaround J.

[hondoheel]

Yea Lance Thomas worked hard this summer too - now he's as good as Chris Bosh.

Seriously though Deon Thompson had turnover problems and shot almost 10% worse from the field than Wright did. He isn't going to instantly go from turning it over on 22-23% of his possessions and shooting 55% from the field on 18% team possessions to using 21+%, turning it over 14-15% of his possessions and shooting almost 65% in a year... or ever. Thompson is a good big to have but Wright was a sublime offensive force last year. Ain't happening.

55%!? Oh Noes!

Brandan getting fouled in the act was as good as a blocked shot or turnover, although not in the Georgetown game. He was also helplessly too weak to defend either Green or Hibbert.

[Patrick Yates]

55%!? Oh Noes!

Brandan getting fouled in the act was as good as a blocked shot or turnover, although not in the Georgetown game. He was also helplessly too weak to defend either Green or Hibbert.

Hondo, I have no great love for you or your heels (and nothing but utter, bone deep, hope they die from a horrible disease hatred for my %$#-weasel high-school classmates who went to UNC), but I have great respect for your team.

All the homers on this board have to cling to is that UNC will absolutely nose-dive without Wright. They will cling to this hope and nuture it, like a sickly bird coaxed back to health, despite any logic or facts to the contrary. Forget that Wright, as you say, was only good from 5 feet in. And that his only defensive ability involved blocking shots helplessly lobbed up by guys half a foot shorter.

They will ignore UNC's overwhelming dominance, sans Mr. Wright, AT Arizona. Never Happened. Deon losing 20 or so lbs, getting into fantastic shape, and kicking I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this. and taking names (all of which rhymed with titch, from his POV) at the Pan Am Games? Nope. That never happened either. It is part of a conspiracy run by the same guys that faked the moon landing.

Hondo, leave us (ie THEM) alone. Our interior consists of a gutty super frosh, one hope, and one prayer. Leave us be. Let us cling to our fervent, whispered hope.

Patrick Yates

[Troublemaker]

Hondo, I have no great love for you or your heels (and nothing but utter, bone deep, hope they die from a horrible disease hatred for my %$#-weasel high-school classmates who went to UNC), but I have great respect for your team.

All the homers on this board have to cling to is that UNC will absolutely nose-dive without Wright. They will cling to this hope and nuture it, like a sickly bird coaxed back to health, despite any logic or facts to the contrary. Forget that Wright, as you say, was only good from 5 feet in. And that his only defensive ability involved blocking shots helplessly lobbed up by guys half a foot shorter.

They will ignore UNC's overwhelming dominance, sans Mr. Wright, AT Arizona. Never Happened. Deon losing 20 or so lbs, getting into fantastic shape, and kicking I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this. and taking names (all of which rhymed with titch, from his POV) at the Pan Am Games? Nope. That never happened either. It is part of a conspiracy run by the same guys that faked the moon landing.

Hondo, leave us (ie THEM) alone. Our interior consists of a gutty super frosh, one hope, and one prayer. Leave us be. Let us cling to our fervent, whispered hope.

Patrick Yates

A bit overdramatic there, PY. Let's not begin to forge a false dichotomy with this stuff about "hopeless homers who think UNC will nosedive" (I don't think that accurately describes ANYONE's stance). I mean, do you believe you represent a chicken-little doomsayers contingent that is convinced Duke will suck and UNC will go undefeated? It's more like a spectrum and almost everyone is in between somewhere, with some more positive than others and some more negative.

I happen to think that if Duke can win an ACC championship with Casey Sanders and Reggie Love splitting time at center, we should compete just fine this season with the post options we have. As for UNC, they have some good players. So does Duke and a bunch of other teams. We'll see how the win-loss results shake out from that foundation soon enough, and there's no need at this point in time to kowtow to the pale blue.

For Duke, it begins with NCC on Friday and NMSU on Monday. Go Devils!

[phaedrus]

55%!? Oh Noes!

Brandan getting fouled in the act was as good as a blocked shot or turnover, although not in the Georgetown game. He was also helplessly too weak to defend either Green or Hibbert.

You two downplaying Wright's importance to last year's team now that he's gone is about as credible as other posters who claim we'll be better because McRoberts is gone.

[mepanchin]

All the homers on this board have to cling to is that UNC will absolutely nose-dive without Wright. They will cling to this hope and nuture it, like a sickly bird coaxed back to health, despite any logic or facts to the contrary. Forget that Wright, as you say, was only good from 5 feet in. And that his only defensive ability involved blocking shots helplessly lobbed up by guys half a foot shorter.

They will ignore UNC's overwhelming dominance, sans Mr. Wright, AT Arizona. Never Happened. Deon losing 20 or so lbs, getting into fantastic shape, and kicking I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this. and taking names (all of which rhymed with titch, from his POV) at the Pan Am Games? Nope. That never happened either. It is part of a conspiracy run by the same guys that faked the moon landing.

Hondo, leave us (ie THEM) alone. Our interior consists of a gutty super frosh, one hope, and one prayer. Leave us be. Let us cling to our fervent, whispered hope.

Patrick Yates

Wow, bit of an overreaction there. Who here said UNC would nosedive?

What "logic and facts" are you referring to? The fact that Wright turned the ball over less than 15% of team possessions that he used, or the fact that he shot 65% from the field? What about the fact that Deon Thompson had the 2nd lowest individual offensive efficiency of any regular player on UNC last year, mostly due to his turnover rate, which was highest on the team? What about the fact that Deon Thompson is normally built, whereas Wright was essentially a freak with respect to his inhuman wingspan?

There's a million reasons why Deon Thompson won't be as good as Brandan Wright. I also don't recall saying anything nearly as dramatic as you characterize, but rather I was responding to someone's delusional claim that Deon Thompson would be "much, much" better than Brandan Wright this year.

Finally, hondo, I never said Deon was bad. Please, go find the statement I made where I said he was a poor player who would never make it. In fact, I have said numerous times that Deon Thompson is a very promising young player with good skills and would make a solid big man. I have also said that Brandan Wright was, in a lot of ways, an offensive prodigy as a freshman in terms of his raw ability to put points on the board. It didn't really matter that he couldn't score outside of 5 feet from the basket, because he scored almost everytime he tried. If he had shot even 70% from the free throw line, he would have been by far the most efficient player on the team because of his amazingly high FG% and very low turnover %.

These stupid discussions always revolve around minor equivocations of terms and nonsense that people overreact to. No one said UNC is a bad team or would nose-dive (or if they did, they're crazy), but people are willing to note that no team in the country right now is without weaknesses that can be exploited or result in a loss come tournament time - UNC included.

[fogey]

The fact is Duke will be better without McRoberts this year, primarily because of the influx of talent replacing him and the improvement of returning players, just check the team record next April. Posters who maintain this may lack credibility in your mind, but time will tell.

[Bob Green]

Bob, that game was not just lost in the last 10 minutes. It was lost over the last 32 minutes of the game, when Carolina had AMPLE opportunity to blow the game wide open. Thomas came in and made 2 beautiful assists for layups in 2 minutes late in the first half, then rode the pine the rest of the way as the offense stagnated and settled for jumpers.

I've got to disagree. The game was lost over the last ten minutes when Carolina was guilty of poor shot selection and clock management. They shouldn't have been taking 3-pointers with 20+ seconds left on the shot clock. Coach Roy should have intervened.

On a different note, IMO, Deon Thompson will be a very solid performer this year. He was impressive over the summer playing with the U.S. under 19 team.

[phaedrus]

The fact is Duke will be better without McRoberts this year, primarily because of the influx of talent replacing him and the improvement of returning players, just check the team record next April. Posters who maintain this may lack credibility in your mind, but time will tell.

I agree that we may be better without McRoberts; what I disagree with is that we'll be better because we're without McRoberts.

[throatybeard]

These stupid discussions always revolve around minor equivocations of terms and nonsense that people overreact to.

Truer words never spoken.

[Jumbo]

Bob, that game was not just lost in the last 10 minutes. It was lost over the last 32 minutes of the game, when Carolina had AMPLE opportunity to blow the game wide open. Thomas came in and made 2 beautiful assists for layups in 2 minutes late in the first half, then rode the pine the rest of the way as the offense stagnated and settled for jumpers.

Oh my God -- Quentin Thomas' cousin is posting at DBR!

[Jumbo]

A sophomore Deon Thompson is much much better than a freshman Brandan Wright. He had twice as many post moves than Wright last year and has worked hard this summer.

And he has none of Wright's length, explosiveness, defensive abilities, speed, anticipation on the offensive boards, etc. As I said, Brandan Wright covered up a huge number of mistakes for UNC last year.

[Jumbo]

Yea Lance Thomas worked hard this summer too - now he's as good as Chris Bosh.

Seriously though Deon Thompson had turnover problems and shot almost 10% worse from the field than Wright did. He isn't going to instantly go from turning it over on 22-23% of his possessions and shooting 55% from the field on 18% team possessions to using 21+%, turning it over 14-15% of his possessions and shooting almost 65% in a year... or ever. Thompson is a good big to have but Wright was a sublime offensive force last year. Ain't happening.

Mepanchin,
Where are you able to find turnover rates on the Internet?

[Jumbo]

Hondo, I have no great love for you or your heels (and nothing but utter, bone deep, hope they die from a horrible disease hatred for my %$#-weasel high-school classmates who went to UNC), but I have great respect for your team.

All the homers on this board have to cling to is that UNC will absolutely nose-dive without Wright. They will cling to this hope and nuture it, like a sickly bird coaxed back to health, despite any logic or facts to the contrary. Forget that Wright, as you say, was only good from 5 feet in. And that his only defensive ability involved blocking shots helplessly lobbed up by guys half a foot shorter.

They will ignore UNC's overwhelming dominance, sans Mr. Wright, AT Arizona. Never Happened. Deon losing 20 or so lbs, getting into fantastic shape, and kicking I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this. and taking names (all of which rhymed with titch, from his POV) at the Pan Am Games? Nope. That never happened either. It is part of a conspiracy run by the same guys that faked the moon landing.

Hondo, leave us (ie THEM) alone. Our interior consists of a gutty super frosh, one hope, and one prayer. Leave us be. Let us cling to our fervent, whispered hope.

Patrick Yates

Spoke in a typical condescending, patronizing tone, Patrick. Bravo. All hail Patrick, Seer of Truth. The rest of us must repent, for we are nothing but mindless lemmings, incapable of the critical analysis that only Patrick can provide.

[mepanchin]

Mepanchin,
Where are you able to find turnover rates on the Internet?

http://kenpom.com/rate.php

Click on 2007, go to a team and click on scouting report