How many wins will the regular season “champion” end up with?

[BandAlum83]

So with the obvious weakness in the ACC this year, and with the expanded 20 game schedule, how many games will the number one seed for the ACC tournament end the regular season with? This would be the mythical “regular season champion.”

I’m thinking maybe 18, which would, of course, be a record.

Could Louisville possibly go undefeated in the ACC? Could Duke?

While we’re at it, it would seem only 4-5 teams are looking good for the NCAA Tournament. Could it really be that much of a down year?

[OldPhiKap]

I’ll guess 15 wins. Even in a down year, conference games are tough.

[Bob Green]

Where’s the poll? This topic begs for a poll.

[UrinalCake]

I think 18 is high. 16 would be my number. Split with the CHeats (they are terrible now but will get Anthony back and the rivalry games are almost always close), lose one among Louisville/UVA/FSU (each of whom we only play once), then another two random unexpected losses where we just don’t have it that day and/or our opponent is on fire.

[JasonEvans]

Where’s the poll? This topic begs for a poll.

Ask and ye shall receive.


Could Louisville possibly go undefeated in the ACC? Could Duke?

While we’re at it, it would seem only 4-5 teams are looking good for the NCAA Tournament. Could it really be that much of a down year?

I seriously doubt anyone goes undefeated. There is too much parity in college hoops this year for someone to pull that off.

As for NCAA tourney teams, the conference really looks like it is down relative to recent years. I think 5 or 6 bids is very likely and would be surprised if we got more than 6. That likely means that teams are going to have to get to 11 conference wins to make the dance.

[arnie]

I think 18 is high. 16 would be my number. Split with the CHeats (they are terrible now but will get Anthony back and the rivalry games are almost always close), lose one among Louisville/UVA/FSU (each of whom we only play once), then another two random unexpected losses where we just don’t have it that day and/or our opponent is on fire.

16 is correct. We lose a game to Louisville, finally lose to UVA and lose against two other random, non-Cheat teams.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

I never "predict" or expect us to lose a game. Ever. We get 20 conference wins this year! http://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/devil9f.gif

[BandAlum83]

Ask and ye shall receive.


Thanks, Jason!

[OldPhiKap]

I’ll guess 15 wins. Even in a down year, conference games are tough.

Sorry, I was thinking there were 18 games not 20. Bump me up one or two. Let me think . . . .

[BandAlum83]

Sorry, I was thinking there were 18 games not 20. Bump me up one.

It’s ok, OPK. I know you only read the title on my original post. The body had too many damn words!

[Bob Green]

Ask and ye shall receive.

Thanks, Jason. I was temporarily restricted to my phone.

[OldPhiKap]

It’s ok, OPK. I know you only read the title on my original post. The body had too many damn words!

The title was so powerful, it blinded me to the rest!

[ndkjr70]

My bet is that Duke will go 2-1 in the Louisville, FSU, @UVA games. They’ll sweep the Cheats, and lose 1 “wait, what?” game finishing with an 18-2 ACC record.

Praying that “wait, what?” game doesn’t come Saturday in Coral Gables, as it’ll be the first time I see our boys live in three long years — easily the longest stretch of my life without in-person Duke basketball.

EDIT: how fortunate are we that we only play the #2, #3, and #4 teams in the conference once — with two of those games being at home? Luhvlill gets us on the road and 2 games against both UVA and FSU. Really no excuse to not finally win a regular season championship.

[duke2x]

I will say 16-4.

We lose 1 ACC home game but probably not 2. Louisville is going to be more than a little motivated, but I think FSU is more likely given its place on the schedule. It's 48 hours after @UNC on a Monday.

The other losses are going to be as random as SF Austin and on the road.

@NCSU is a strong hidden candidate since we often lost over there when we should not (2010, 2015). They are 4th best in the ACC by computer poll.

[bullettoothtony]

15 wins I think.

[UrinalCake]

EDIT: how fortunate are we that we only play the #2, #3, and #4 teams in the conference once — with two of those games being at home?

We definitely have an easy conference schedule this season, especially if UNC continues to struggle and/or deal with injuries. Similar to what UNC had last season and what we had two seasons ago. We play three out of our first four on the road, but otherwise it’s hard to complain.

I do think that an unexpected team is going to emerge as a contender, perhaps Miami or even NC State.

[BandAlum83]

The title was so powerful, it blinded me to the rest!

Wrapped up like a deuce, another runner in the night?

[HereBeforeCoachK]

15 wins I think.

I voted that this morning.....I think everybody can lose a good number of games....

[OldPhiKap]

Wrapped up like a deuce, another runner in the night?

{Revved up . . . .}

[BandAlum83]

{Revved up . . . .}

Now you’ve done it!

The damn calliope crashed to the ground!

[OldPhiKap]

Now you’ve done it!

The damn calliope crashed to the ground!

Dudulu Dudulu Dudulu Dudulu Dudulu Dudulu Dudulu Dudulu

Dudulu Dudulu Dudulu Dudulu whaaaaaaaaa . . . ..

[brevity]

@NCSU is a strong hidden candidate since we often lost over there when we should not (2010, 2015).

If that were really the pattern, I would take a loss in Raleigh to ensure a national championship later. Unfortunately, according to Sports Reference (http://cbbref.com/tiny/TxGb2), Duke has also lost at NC State in 2013 and 2018.


We definitely have an easy conference schedule this season, especially if UNC continues to struggle and/or deal with injuries. Similar to what UNC had last season and what we had two seasons ago. We play three out of our first four on the road, but otherwise it’s hard to complain.

After those next 4 games, there will likely be some complaining with having three straight home games (Louisville, Miami, Pittsburgh) followed by three straight road games (at Syracuse, at Boston College, at UNC). Not unfair, but not exactly easy either.

Twice this conference season Duke has a game just 2 days after a previous game: 2/8 at UNC and 2/10 vs. FSU; 2/29 at UVA and 3/2 vs. NCSU. I couldn't tell you if that's more or less fair than any other ACC team -- it helps that each time the second game is in Cameron, and dealing with the quick turnaround could prepare Duke for the postseason -- but I can tell you that there will likely be some complaining then as well.

[MChambers]

I think 18 is high. 16 would be my number. Split with the CHeats (they are terrible now but will get Anthony back and the rivalry games are almost always close), lose one among Louisville/UVA/FSU (each of whom we only play once), then another two random unexpected losses where we just don’t have it that day and/or our opponent is on fire.

16 was my pick, for the reasons you list.

[ndkjr70]

16 was my pick, for the reasons you list.

I just cannot see Duke or Louisville finishing their season 14-4. That assumes Duke drops two random games to poor ACC teams AND drops 2 of the FSU/UNC/UL/@FSU/@UNC games.

I think this duke team is better than that.

[Bob Green]

I just cannot see Duke or Louisville finishing their season 14-4.

There are 20 conference games not 18.

[MChambers]

I just cannot see Duke or Louisville finishing their season 14-4. That assumes Duke drops two random games to poor ACC teams AND drops 2 of the FSU/UNC/UL/@FSU/@UNC games.

I think this duke team is better than that.

T-Rank predicts Duke goes 17-3 and L'ville 16-4. I'd take that, but expect Duke to lose more than three.

[ndkjr70]

There are 20 conference games not 18.

Duke is already 2-0, I feel like those should count.

[Bob Green]

Duke is already 2-0, I feel like those should count.

Ah, I interpreted “finishing 14-4” as final record rather than from this point forward.

[Troublemaker]

I just cannot see Duke or Louisville finishing their season 14-4. That assumes Duke drops two random games to poor ACC teams AND drops 2 of the FSU/UNC/UL/@FSU/@UNC games.

I think this duke team is better than that.


Duke is already 2-0, I feel like those should count.

Any interest in wagering that neither team finishes 16-4 or worse? I'll definitely take the side that at least one of them will finish 16-4 or worse, and I believe you are underestimating the conference, even if it is a down year.

[DUKIE V(A)]

I am going to guess 17-3 gets it done. I think that will be Duke with Louisville coming in second at 16-4.

[UrinalCake]

Any interest in wagering that neither team finishes 16-4 or worse? I'll definitely take the side that at least one of them will finish 16-4 or worse, and I believe you are underestimating the conference, even if it is a down year.

Those predicting 2 or 3 losses are also presuming the team stays healthy for the whole season, something that has not happened since as long as I can remember. Of course, I wouldn't mind if it happened this season (starting now)....

[SkyBrickey]

I am going to guess 17-3 gets it done. I think that will be Duke with Louisville coming in second at 16-4.

I agree with this ^ but I will dream of 20-0. It COULD happen.

[ndkjr70]

Any interest in wagering that neither team finishes 16-4 or worse? I'll definitely take the side that at least one of them will finish 16-4 or worse, and I believe you are underestimating the conference, even if it is a down year.

Poorly phrased on my part. I would be happy to wager that ONE team will finish with 17 wins — which was my answer to this thread in an admittedly clumsy way.

[ndkjr70]

Those predicting 2 or 3 losses are also presuming the team stays healthy for the whole season, something that has not happened since as long as I can remember. Of course, I wouldn't mind if it happened this season (starting now)...

This team seems much better equipped to handle an injury or two. I’d even argue that an injury to anyone not named Vernon or Tre wouldn’t do a whole terrible lot to the team as a whole.

But yes, my prediction of 17-3 assumes a reasonable level of health.

[UrinalCake]

At this point the most conference wins any team can achieve is 16, which means that at least 33 of the 47 poll participants have over-estimated. I feel like I was more conservative than most when I said that Duke would go 16-4, with the following breakdown:


I think 18 is high. 16 would be my number. Split with the CHeats (they are terrible now but will get Anthony back and the rivalry games are almost always close), lose one among Louisville/UVA/FSU (each of whom we only play once), then another two random unexpected losses where we just don’t have it that day and/or our opponent is on fire.

As it turns out, the first rivalry game was close, we have lost TWO among UL/UVA/FSU, and we did have have two random unexpected losses PLUS another reasonable loss to Clemson. Hoping we don't split with the CHeats though.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I said 15, and that's looking pretty good right now.

[arnie]

I said 15, and that's looking pretty good right now.

That number is still optimistic. Not so sure we sweep this week.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

That number is still optimistic. Not so sure we sweep this week.

This prediction is a prediction of how many the ACC Winner will have.....that was, and is, not necessarily Duke.

[UrinalCake]

This prediction is a prediction of how many the ACC Winner will have...that was, and is, not necessarily Duke.

Remaining games for the top four schools
FSU (14-4): @ND, vs. BC
Louisville (14-4): vs. VT, @UVA
Virginia (13-5): @Miami, vs. Louisville
Duke (13-5): vs. NCSU, vs. UNC-CHeat

Right now FSU is in the best position, they have two games against weak opponents and they hold the tie-breaker over Louisville. If UVA beats Louisville which is not too hard to imagine then things get interesting. Assuming we can win out, that would leave a three-way tie for second place. And if FSU loses also drops another game, we'd have a crazy four-way tie.

I think the safe money is on FSU to win out leaving 16 as the correct number, in which case I will collectively congratulate myself and my 10 friends who voted that way.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Remaining games for the top four schools
FSU (14-4): @ND, vs. BC
Louisville (14-4): vs. VT, @UVA
Virginia (13-5): @Miami, vs. Louisville
Duke (13-5): vs. NCSU, vs. UNC-CHeat

Right now FSU is in the best position, they have two games against weak opponents and they hold the tie-breaker over Louisville. If UVA beats Louisville which is not too hard to imagine then things get interesting. Assuming we can win out, that would leave a three-way tie for second place. And if FSU loses also drops another game, we'd have a crazy four-way tie.

I think the safe money is on FSU to win out leaving 16 as the correct number, in which case I will collectively congratulate myself and my 10 friends who voted that way.

At this point, FSU with 16 would be the bet to make. And yep, all who picked 16 pre season would have nailed it.

[Wahoo2000]

At this point, FSU with 16 would be the bet to make. And yep, all who picked 16 pre season would have nailed it.

FSU only a projected 3pt fave at ND on Wednesday. With the weight of the regular season "title" on their backs, will they play loose enough to win? Esp if ND comes out playing with their hair on fire seeing this game as their last gasp at staying in contention (or getting into contention rather) for a tourney bid.

I like the Noles to win that game but it's FAAAAAAR from a certainty.