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DukieInBrasil
12-13-2019, 06:10 PM
Since nobody else did, i figured i might as well use the most of my feeble skills (which are no match for the dark side, i must admit) to make a Phase 2 thread, since it is the shortest, and we're already 1/3 of the way thru it. So mostly it'll be a copy of the last one, with some updates.

Health: We suffered a minor injury to Cassius Stanley, although there was much sturm und drang that he might be out for the entirety of Phase 2. He missed essentially 2 games, the remainder of the game he got injured, the following game vs MSU and played only 7 minutes in the VT game. It may take him a while to recover fully, so this longish break may be just what the doctor ordered. So here’s to good health! (I plagiarized that last sentence...)

Rotation: Ten games in, and we have seen 10 guys average double-digit minutes so far. It's been a beautiful thing to behold for those who have always championed an expanded rotation. There's been a fair amount of discussion about the way the rotation is being used so far, which has been pretty interesting. Mostly that on any given night there's really 7 or 8 guys that are getting "rotation" minutes, but that due to matchups, those 7 or 8 guys might be slightly different in each game. It's still early, so this might not be a feature that remains consistently deployed for this team. One factor that has altered this script since the beginning of Phase 1 is the emergence of Joey Baker, who was red-hot on fire for a a few games, and who also showed enough hustle and grit and, dare i say it?, verve, to probably have earned himself an extended stay in the rotation. Also proving he's got staying power, at least so far, J-Gold. He's put in several unexpectedly high-output offensive performances lately, and his defense remains his calling card.

Turnovers/pressure/defensive identity: Phase 1 saw the team start with an insanely strong penchant for forcing turnovers, which faded somewhat over Phase 1. However, defense as the identity of this team has stayed strong. I for one love it, and really hope that the trend continues. One thing that the 1st game in Phase 2 showed us is that this team is pretty versatile both offensively and defensively. Duke was effective defending a team with multiple, good bigs, and a great PG, as well as defending a small spread and kick outside shooting oriented team. K made the adjustment and we played small really well. That sort of defensive versatility will hopefully pay big dividends down the road.

Wing contributions: We have seen all of our wing players have at least a couple of good games. Almost all of them have also had poor games too, so it's been quite variable, which is why depth is good, because i'm not sure we've had a game yet where every wing played poorly. I'm not sure exactly where to delimit the "wings" but Moore, Stanley, AOC, Baker, certainly fit there. Hurt sometimes plays as a wing, sometimes as a PF, Jack White too. I guess Jack is the only one of the group who hasn't had an eye-opener of a game so far, but he has been great as the glue guy so far, and has improved over the last few games. Duke is stocked with wing player options, and can even borrow from the "bigs" to cover wing minutes when needed. We learned how valuable that can be vs VaTech in game 1 of this Phase, and maybe Wofford will be an opportunity for the wing contingent to take a walk down Faramir Lane, and show their quality.

Shooting: So far... so good here! After a tough start, Duke has really improved withe 3ball, and outside-the-paint shooting in general. Of the top 10, only 7 can shoot (/s/ zing!!!), or better put, 7 guys are shooting over 30% from 3 so far, and as a team the boys are shooting 35% from 3. The emergence of Joey Baker has been a beautiful thing, and though in game 1 of this Phase he threw out a real stinker from the field (0-4) he did a little bit of everything else to show value. However, his insanely good shooting has not only lifted the overall team 3FG% it seems to have inspired others to shoot better too! I don't have mid-range jumper % handy, but J-Bake has proven very adept at that, Tre has shown improvement in that regard, and Hurt has shown some nice jumpers too. Even J-Gold has improved his 3FG% to not-quite-good-but-very-nearly-not-retched (23%). AOC was anointed as Duke's long range bomber coming into the season, and has the lowest 3FG% of regular 3ball shooters. If/when he returns to form, this team looks to be formidable, or at least competent enough from 3 to keep the offense balanced.

Bigs: WOW!!!! Carey has proven himself a revelation so far, absolutely carving up opposing defenses so far, and also racking up the double-doubles! His defense has been adequate, at least. He's proven himself a decent shot-blocker and absolutely bested the MSU bigs. His utility was reduced vs VaTech, but he stilled played a poised game and was valuable when on the court. Javin continues to have no touch away from the rim, but after a dismal start from the field, he has now made 9 strait FGs. With his improved scoring, his value has really picked up since, as Kedsy points out, his other measurable stats are as good or better than last year. White is a stretch 4 who started hitting his shot again, after a far too long absence. He continues to do everything else quite well, and is really valuable as a leader as well. Hurt continues to be really slight and not super athletic, but has played pretty well. I'm hoping he uses the remaining 2 games in this Phase to work on his rebounding. As stated in Phase 1, "It will be fun to watch Coach K mix and match all season." and i think he has shown that he already has a pretty good grasp of how to use these 4 effectively. If he can push the right buttons and extract the most out of the potential of these 4 dudes this year, they could be a truly special group.

Jones & J-Gold: Through ten games, Tre has made it clear he is running the show. He is a defensive hound as usual, but has shown much more offensively. He is getting to the rim, and has hit the midrange at a high rate. Unfortunately, the assist rate and assist/turnover ratio has gotten a lot less attractive lately, but teams have been really focused on getting the ball out of his hands. Enter J-Gold. After watching his on-court presence diminish for a while during Phase 1, his value has grown a lot as a reliever of sorts for Tre. The two have played alongside each other rather extensively lately and it has had a positive impact on the team. Tre is shooting nearly 33$ on 3s, so teams are gonna have to honor his shot. J-Gold continues to be a hound on defense, and continues to get steals and is now actually converting them into made layups. He has also started hitting 3s, and though his 3FG% so far is still mired below the Mendoza-line (pardon the mixed-sports metaphor), it's a heartening trend that portends only good things if he continues to provide the offense he's shown lately to go along with his defense.

(thanks CDu for the template for this Phase post, i plagiarized it liberally and provided almost 0 original thoughts :rolleyes: :cool: :eek: )

Bob Green
12-14-2019, 07:10 AM
Nice Phase post, DIB. Thanks!

Defense wins championships. Okay, cliche box checked. Seriously, I am looking forward to watching team defense develop this season. Early returns are positive so a fair question for Phase II is how much better can the defense become? It is exciting basketball when the defense creates turnovers and converts them into points.

A second item I will be watching is whether or not Alex O’Connell can break out of the funk he has been in. The team is better with a productive AOC in the rotation.

Kedsy
12-14-2019, 10:16 AM
I don't have mid-range jumper % handy, but J-Bake has proven very adept at that, Tre has shown improvement in that regard, and Hurt has shown some nice jumpers too.


[Tre] is getting to the rim, and has hit the midrange at a high rate.

Duke players' percentage so far on two-point jumpers:

Joey Baker: 80.0%
Vernon Carey: 44.0%
Wendell Moore: 41.2%
Cassius Stanley: 38.5%
Matthew Hurt: 38.1%
Tre Jones: 37.5%
Alex O'Connell: 30.0%
Javin DeLaurier: 20.0%
Jordan Goldwire: 20.0%
Jack White: 0.0%
TEAM: 40.0%

(Courtesy of Hoop Math (http://hoop-math.com/Duke2020.php))

arnie
12-14-2019, 10:27 AM
Duke players' percentage so far on two-point jumpers:

Joey Baker: 80.0%
Vernon Carey: 44.0%
Wendell Moore: 41.2%
Cassius Stanley: 38.5%
Matthew Hurt: 38.1%
Tre Jones: 37.5%
Alex O'Connell: 30.0%
Javin DeLaurier: 20.0%
Jordan Goldwire: 20.0%
Jack White: 0.0%
TEAM: 40.0%

(Courtesy of Hoop Math (http://hoop-math.com/Duke2020.php))

Very interesting link. Can’t read too much into the stats due to small sample size, but who’d think Goldwire and O’Connell would have highest FG% at the rim? Also, Javin making 20% of his 2 pt jumpers implies he’s taken 5 of those shots. I can’t remember him doing that.

Anyway, great link.

CamrnCrz1974
12-17-2019, 09:49 AM
Duke players' percentage so far on two-point jumpers:

(Courtesy of Hoop Math (http://hoop-math.com/Duke2020.php))

Great find, Kedsy!
Was very interesting to look at some of the more in-depth and advanced metrics.

MChambers
12-17-2019, 10:34 AM
Great find, Kedsy!
Was very interesting to look at some of the more in-depth and advanced metrics.

It's a good find. T-Rank has some of these numbers, too (scroll down): http://www.barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Duke

Billy Dat
12-17-2019, 01:11 PM
Rotation: Ten games in, and we have seen 10 guys average double-digit minutes so far. It's been a beautiful thing to behold for those who have always championed an expanded rotation. There's been a fair amount of discussion about the way the rotation is being used so far, which has been pretty interesting. Mostly that on any given night there's really 7 or 8 guys that are getting "rotation" minutes, but that due to matchups, those 7 or 8 guys might be slightly different in each game. It's still early, so this might not be a feature that remains consistently deployed for this team. One factor that has altered this script since the beginning of Phase 1 is the emergence of Joey Baker, who was red-hot on fire for a a few games, and who also showed enough hustle and grit and, dare i say it?, verve, to probably have earned himself an extended stay in the rotation. Also proving he's got staying power, at least so far, J-Gold. He's put in several unexpectedly high-output offensive performances lately, and his defense remains his calling card.

Historically, whenever K has been asked about Duke's rotation, his answer has always been that the best players need to play the most minutes. So far, on this team, there are three tiers:
Tier 1 - Tre Jones
Tier 2 - Vernon, Cassius, Wendell, Mathew, Jack
Tier 3 - Jordan, Javin, AOC, Joey

So far, Tre has been the only constant because Vernon, although a dominant offensive weapon, has been forced off the floor in certain match-ups. The only way the rotation will shorten is if one or more of these players emerge above the others, because, as stated earlier, K aint Leonard Hamilton who likes to play a deep rotation because that's what he likes. While I agree that it has been refreshing to see K go so deep, I don't think any of us know if it is ultimately better for the team. I happen to enjoy the fact that K has to play mad scientist every game, figuring out which line-ups are working best, but it is also a bit of a high wire act. While it may make us unpredictable and, theoretically, harder for opponents to prepare for, does it actually make us tougher to play once the ball is tipped, or would we be better served with a core 7 that really knows their role? I don't know. I am just playing a bit of devil's advocate with the depth story.

So, for me, the rotation will continue to be the story line that I am following with the most interest.

Related to the above, and this has been said before within these hallowed pages, I expect teams to continue to try and go small to force Vernon off the court. I am interested to see how often that happens, and how often we'll be forced into line-ups like the ones we used against V.Tech, or will we be able to punish them with Vernon's size?

Defensively, our ability to prevent teams from shooting and converting 3s has led to us being attacked off the bounce and giving up some high 2ptFG%s. Is that a trade off that will continue?

robed deity
12-17-2019, 01:17 PM
Historically, whenever K has been asked about Duke's rotation, his answer has always been that the best players need to play the most minutes. So far, on this team, there are three tiers:
Tier 1 - Tre Jones
Tier 2 - Vernon, Cassius, Wendell, Mathew, Jack
Tier 3 - Jordan, Javin, AOC, Joey

So far, Tre has been the only constant because Vernon, although a dominant offensive weapon, has been forced off the floor in certain match-ups. The only way the rotation will shorten is if one or more of these players emerge above the others, because, as stated earlier, K aint Leonard Hamilton who likes to play a deep rotation because that's what he likes. While I agree that it has been refreshing to see K go so deep, I don't think any of us know if it is ultimately better for the team. I happen to enjoy the fact that K has to play mad scientist every game, figuring out which line-ups are working best, but it is also a bit of a high wire act. While it may make us unpredictable and, theoretically, harder for opponents to prepare for, does it actually make us tougher to play once the ball is tipped, or would we be better served with a core 7 that really knows their role? I don't know. I am just playing a bit of devil's advocate with the depth story.

So, for me, the rotation will continue to be the story line that I am following with the most interest.

Related to the above, and this has been said before within these hallowed pages, I expect teams to continue to try and go small to force Vernon off the court. I am interested to see how often that happens, and how often we'll be forced into line-ups like the ones we used against V.Tech, or will we be able to punish them with Vernon's size?

Defensively, our ability to prevent teams from shooting and converting 3s has led to us being attacked off the bounce and giving up some high 2ptFG%s. Is that a trade off that will continue?
Great post, Billy. Many interesting and important questions.

Billy Dat
12-17-2019, 01:45 PM
Great post, Billy. Many interesting and important questions.

Thanks - I meant to note that my tiers were based on minutes to-date, not based on my assessment of how well guys are playing.

According to the Bart Torvik stats, here are the #s
http://www.barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Duke

Minutes %
Tre - 85.2%
Tier 2 guys - all between 51% - 58%
Tier 3 guys - all between 32% - 38%

superdave
12-28-2019, 09:11 AM
Let’s see if Alex and Wendell can have breakout games the next week. We will need them to be productive come conference play.

DukieInBrasil
12-28-2019, 02:15 PM
Since nobody else did, i figured i might as well use the most of my feeble skills (which are no match for the dark side, i must admit) to make a Phase 2 thread, since it is the shortest, and we're already 1/3 of the way thru it. So mostly it'll be a copy of the last one, with some updates.

Health: We suffered a "minor" injury to Tre Jones, who missed 2 of the 3 games in the Phase. K said that had the games been ACC, he would have played. Hard to know, but i suppose it's better to be cautious with our PG's feet.

Rotation: The rotation continues to be deep. With Tre sidelined the last 2 games, we've seen Wendell pick up the back-up PG duties. It's not pretty but hopefully the reps he's getting now will pay off should we need it.

Turnovers/pressure/defensive identity: The defense continues to be solid.

Wing contributions: Our wing contributions continue to be a strength of this team. We've seen some really lights out games from Joey Buckets, and some real stinkers. Cassius returned from his 2 game absence, and has played like someone recovering from an injury.

Shooting: 3pt shooting was tough in the last 2 games of this rotation. We started off 0fer vs Brown until late in the 2nd half when AOC managed to make our only 2 3s of the game. Overall though, the 3pt shooting has been a strength relative to last year. W/o our star PG to manage the offense, it makes sense to me that Duke would suffer in this category.

Bigs: Carey has shown no signs of slowing down, that's good. Javin had a 10 consecutive made FG streak come to an end vs Brown, and it looks like he's playing almost exclusively as Big Vern's back-up, which is fine. Hurt continues to be a very poor rebounder for a PF, but he may not really be a PF in the classic sense. Jack makes up for what Hurt lacks as a PF though.

Jones & J-Gold: With Tre out the last 2 games J-Gold made hay while the sun shined, as they say. He had probably his best game at Duke against Wofford and followed that up with an adequate job as PG vs Brown. He's not dynamic but he is pretty safe withe ball and rebounds well for a guard. His offense has really come alive lately, relative to his 1st 2 years at Duke.

i put all the comments inside the quote, cuz i'm lazy.