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JasonEvans
12-05-2019, 04:17 PM
Ok, we are somewhat overdue for a thread dedicated to this, so...

https://i.ibb.co/TLPF0TQ/Capture.png

538 says (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-college-football-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo) that LSU only has a 63% chance of making the playoffs... if LSU loses to Ga, 538 seems to think there is a very good chance Oklahoma or Utah or Baylor will pass them.

That’s pretty much insane, right? I mean, iF LSU gets blown out and loses two or three star players to injury I could see it but if they merely lose a fairly normal game, they have to still be in. No other 1-loss team has nearly as good a resume as LSU does.

-Jason "someone explain the '1-loss LSU isn't among the 4-best teams' logic to me" Evans

P.S. - And while I am at it, can someone please explain how Ohio State misses the playoff if they lose to Wisconsin? Come on!!

budwom
12-05-2019, 04:20 PM
Still can't believe Utah is in contention for this.

SouthernDukie
12-05-2019, 04:27 PM
It is insane to think that if LSU loses to Georgia they fall out of the Top 4. No way, no how.

What I don't want to see is Ohio State remain #1 and thereby avoid having to play both LSU/Georgia AND Clemson to claim the title. It seems to me like we are setting up for one strong semi-final (whoever is ranked #2 & #3) and one not so strong semi-final (#1 vs a lesser #4, like Utah or even Oklahoma). No offense to those teams intended, but should LSU dispatch of Georgia this weekend I think we'll have three very strong teams and once lesser team. So whoever is ranked #1 will have a distinct advantage. Hope it's not the Buckeyes, whom I actually think should be ranked below both LSU and Clemson.

And no, that's not my southern bias coming out... Well... Maybe it is. :)

Bob Green
12-05-2019, 04:36 PM
And no, that's not my southern bias coming out... Well... Maybe it is. :)

Hopefully, Wisconsin beats Ohio State.

SouthernDukie
12-05-2019, 04:42 PM
Hopefully, Wisconsin beats Ohio State.

From your lips to God's ears.

budwom
12-05-2019, 04:44 PM
It is insane to think that if LSU loses to Georgia they fall out of the Top 4. No way, no how.

What I don't want to see is Ohio State remain #1 and thereby avoid having to play both LSU/Georgia AND Clemson to claim the title. It seems to me like we are setting up for one strong semi-final (whoever is ranked #2 & #3) and one not so strong semi-final (#1 vs a lesser #4, like Utah or even Oklahoma). No offense to those teams intended, but should LSU dispatch of Georgia this weekend I think we'll have three very strong teams and once lesser team. So whoever is ranked #1 will have a distinct advantage. Hope it's not the Buckeyes, whom I actually think should be ranked below both LSU and Clemson.

And no, that's not my southern bias coming out... Well... Maybe it is. :)

I suppose LSU could fall out of the top four IF they got obliterated by GA, but I think is severely unlikely...(FWIW I suspect Oregon will beat Utah).

Acymetric
12-05-2019, 04:46 PM
Ok, we are somewhat overdue for a thread dedicated to this, so...

https://i.ibb.co/TLPF0TQ/Capture.png

538 says (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-college-football-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo) that LSU only has a 63% chance of making the playoffs... if LSU loses to Ga, 538 seems to think there is a very good chance Oklahoma or Utah or Baylor will pass them.

That’s pretty much insane, right? I mean, iF LSU gets blown out and loses two or three star players to injury I could see it but if they merely lose a fairly normal game, they have to still be in. No other 1-loss team has nearly as good a resume as LSU does.

-Jason "someone explain the '1-loss LSU isn't among the 4-best teams' logic to me" Evans

P.S. - And while I am at it, can someone please explain how Ohio State misses the playoff if they lose to Wisconsin? Come on!!

I think there is something a little off about the model (possibly overvaluing conference championships), but I don't think it is totally off. Leaving out two one-loss conference champions in favor of a non-champion would be unprecedented (in the admittedly short history of the CFP). I think that factors in, I expect the committee to lean heavily on the value of conference championships to make these decisions. I also don't think the committee can put OSU in after a loss to Wisconsin, so I have no qualms there.

What is completely insane is that if LSU, Oklahoma, and Utah all lose and Wisconsin beats OSU, 2 loss Wisconsin has a 46% (!) chance at making the playoffs, ahead of 1 loss LSU (35%), 1 loss OSU (32%), and 2 loss conference champion Oregon (4%). This is insanity (in this total chaos scenario it would be Georgia, Clemson, Baylor, and LSU).


FWIW, I believe this is relying somewhat on historical selection data, and I don't think a team that lost its conference championship game has ever made the playoff so that might be where some of the skew is coming from.

uh_no
12-05-2019, 04:52 PM
Ok, we are somewhat overdue for a thread dedicated to this, so...

https://i.ibb.co/TLPF0TQ/Capture.png

538 says (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-college-football-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo) that LSU only has a 63% chance of making the playoffs... if LSU loses to Ga, 538 seems to think there is a very good chance Oklahoma or Utah or Baylor will pass them.

That’s pretty much insane, right? I mean, iF LSU gets blown out and loses two or three star players to injury I could see it but if they merely lose a fairly normal game, they have to still be in. No other 1-loss team has nearly as good a resume as LSU does.

-Jason "someone explain the '1-loss LSU isn't among the 4-best teams' logic to me" Evans

P.S. - And while I am at it, can someone please explain how Ohio State misses the playoff if they lose to Wisconsin? Come on!!

it's postseason. win or go home. Sometimes you might get lucky and still make it in, but I won't shed a tear for a team that gets left out after losing their conference championship.

Bob Green
12-05-2019, 05:02 PM
Are we allowed to root for chaos?

Oregon beats Utah.
Wisconsin beats Ohio State.
Baylor beats Oklahoma.
Georgia beats LSU.
Virginia beats Clemson.

Make the selection committee earn their pay.

Acymetric
12-05-2019, 05:04 PM
it's postseason. win or go home. Sometimes you might get lucky and still make it in, but I won't shed a tear for a team that gets left out after losing their conference championship.

Yep. No team has lost a conference championship game and been selected in the (admittedly small sample size) 5 years of the CFP. No one-loss conference champion has ever been passed over by a team that wasn't either also a 1-loss conference champion or undefeated (Notre Dame).

If LSU and/or OSU lose and are still selected, at least one of those things, possibly all of them, would have to happen this year.

Only one 1-loss conference champion has been left out (Ohio State last year, behind 3 undefeated teams and 1-loss conference champ Oklahoma).

SouthernDukie
12-05-2019, 05:04 PM
Are we allowed to root for chaos?

Oregon beats Utah.
Wisconsin beats Ohio State.
Baylor beats Oklahoma.
Georgia beats LSU.
Virginia beats Clemson.

Make the selection committee earn their pay.

I'm down with that kind of weekend.

Acymetric
12-05-2019, 05:11 PM
Are we allowed to root for chaos?

Oregon beats Utah.
Wisconsin beats Ohio State.
Baylor beats Oklahoma.
Georgia beats LSU.
Virginia beats Clemson.

Make the selection committee earn their pay.

If you try plugging that into the 538 calculator linked in the OP, it literally will not let you do it. One of the first things I tried.

Honestly I think that's pretty easy though.

Georgia
Baylor
Wisconsin
LSU

Fore real chaos, you need Clemson to still win, to make it a competition for 2 open spots instead of 3 (Clemson is 100% eliminated if they lose to UVA).

Utah beats Oregon (this is important because Utah will actually have a case. Oregon isn't getting in no matter what)
Wisconsin beats Ohio State.
Baylor beats Oklahoma.
Georgia beats LSU.

Now you have LSU, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Baylor, and Utah all with pretty valid claims to get in (so 5 teams for 2 spots instead of 5 teams for 3 spots).

Or let Oklahoma win as well (making Clemson, UGA, and Oklahoma all locks) and you get LSU, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Utah (4 teams fighting for 1 spot).

Acymetric
12-05-2019, 05:13 PM
For the TLDR summary of my position: The only team with a chance to make it without winning their championship game is LSU, unless all​ the favored teams lose their conference championships and then OSU also might have a chance.

AustinDevil
12-05-2019, 05:34 PM
Are we allowed to root for chaos?

Oregon beats Utah.
Wisconsin beats Ohio State.
Baylor beats Oklahoma.
Georgia beats LSU.
Virginia beats Clemson.

Make the selection committee earn their pay.

Not just allowed, but preferred. Because I want an 8-team playoff.

Acymetric
12-05-2019, 05:36 PM
Not just allowed, but preferred. Because I want an 8-team playoff.

Still need Clemson to win to push that direction. Virginia beating Clemson would be Exhibit A for why conference champions shouldn't get auto-bids, and we're not getting to 8 teams without auto-bids for the 5 conference champions.

75Crazie
12-05-2019, 05:37 PM
Yep. No team has lost a conference championship game and been selected in the (admittedly small sample size) 5 years of the CFP.
But … at least one team not even playing in their conference championship was selected for the CFP. Given the imperfect nature of the college playoffs, I think just about any scenario is possible.

Acymetric
12-05-2019, 05:38 PM
But … at least one team not even playing in their conference championship was selected for the CFP. Given the imperfect nature of the college playoffs, I think just about any scenario is possible.

The lesson is that losing your conference championship is worse than not playing in it.

Tripping William
12-05-2019, 05:57 PM
Not just allowed, but preferred. Because I want an 8-team playoff.

So, who would be the #8?

HereBeforeCoachK
12-05-2019, 06:03 PM
Not just allowed, but preferred. Because I want an 8-team playoff.

As a commentator, I don't know who, said the other day.....college FB has been in the playoffs for a couple weeks now.

Tripping William
12-05-2019, 06:11 PM
Still can't believe Utah is in contention for this.

Why? They might just have the nation’s best D. And it ain’t like this is Kyle Whittingham’s first rodeo (2008).

AustinDevil
12-05-2019, 06:38 PM
Still need Clemson to win to push that direction. Virginia beating Clemson would be Exhibit A for why conference champions shouldn't get auto-bids, and we're not getting to 8 teams without auto-bids for the 5 conference champions.

Sure, and I was already planning not to support that particular chaos element. The ACC is weak enough with an undefeated Klempson representing it as champion. We don't need #24 UVa to be the champion.

AustinDevil
12-05-2019, 06:41 PM
So, who would be the #8?

Oh, that's easy. The winner of Memphis/Cincinnati.

Tripping William
12-05-2019, 06:51 PM
Oh, that's easy. The winner of Memphis/Cincinnati.

And two loss Cincy (currently #20 in the CFP rankings) keeps out whom? Stray Gator, by way of example, might want a word ....

Bob Green
12-05-2019, 08:11 PM
And two loss Cincy (currently #20 in the CFP rankings) keeps out whom? Stray Gator, by way of example, might want a word ...

Life is not fair. Folks would have to deal with it.

An 8 team playoff would dictate 6 automatic bids and 2 wild cards. Conference Champions are in.

OldPhiKap
12-05-2019, 08:13 PM
Life is not fair. Folks would have to deal with it.

I’m fine with four.

What is more interesting — arguing about who is 4/5, or who is 8/9?

Tripping William
12-05-2019, 08:46 PM
I’m fine with four.

What is more interesting — arguing about who is 4/5, or who is 8/9?

68/69

OldPhiKap
12-05-2019, 08:52 PM
68/69

True. Football would argue about which 2-loss team was left out; in basketball we get to argue about which P5 team with a .500 league average should play an almost-always meaningless play-in game.

(I love hoops, but as Cut said years ago — every weekend is a playoff game in football. Embrace the difference, I say)

Steven43
12-05-2019, 08:56 PM
Ok, we are somewhat overdue for a thread dedicated to this, so...

https://i.ibb.co/TLPF0TQ/Capture.png

538 says (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-college-football-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo) that LSU only has a 63% chance of making the playoffs... if LSU loses to Ga, 538 seems to think there is a very good chance Oklahoma or Utah or Baylor will pass them.

That’s pretty much insane, right? I mean, iF LSU gets blown out and loses two or three star players to injury I could see it but if they merely lose a fairly normal game, they have to still be in. No other 1-loss team has nearly as good a resume as LSU does.

-Jason "someone explain the '1-loss LSU isn't among the 4-best teams' logic to me" Evans

P.S. - And while I am at it, can someone please explain how Ohio State misses the playoff if they lose to Wisconsin? Come on!!
LSU and Ohio State are locks to make the Playoff regardless of whether or not they lose in their conference championship game. And Clemson is almost a lock. The only spot that is most likely available is the fourth spot, and if Georgia beats LSU they get it. And even if Georgia loses they have a good shot at getting the fourth spot if they play LSU close throughout and the game goes down to the wire.

wsb3
12-05-2019, 09:06 PM
LSU and Ohio State are locks to make the Playoff regardless of whether or not they lose in their conference championship game. And Clemson is almost a lock. The only spot that is most likely available is the fourth spot, and if Georgia beats LSU they get it. And even if Georgia loses they have a good shot at getting the fourth spot if they play LSU close throughout and the game goes down to the wire.

Agree with this up to the point where Georgia could be in with a loss. Don't see that happening..

OldPhiKap
12-05-2019, 09:13 PM
I don’t see a two-loss UGA getting in when one of those losses was to South Carolina. Heck, Alabama at that point should get in before the Dawgs although I think a non-SEC team trumps the Tide politically if not on the merits.

Tripping William
12-05-2019, 09:17 PM
Life is not fair. Folks would have to deal with it.

An 8 team playoff would dictate 6 automatic bids and 2 wild cards. Conference Champions are in.

Champions of which conferences? MWC (Boise)? American (Cincy/Memphis)? Sun Belt (App)?

Stray Gator
12-05-2019, 09:38 PM
I don’t see a two-loss UGA getting in when one of those losses was to South Carolina. Heck, Alabama at that point should get in before the Dawgs although I think a non-SEC team trumps the Tide politically if not on the merits.

Either Oklahoma or Baylor will emerge from their game on Saturday as a 1-loss Big 12 conference champion. I can't envision a scenario in which any 2-loss team would be given a berth in the playoff over a 1-loss Power 5 conference champion.

OldPhiKap
12-05-2019, 09:45 PM
Either Oklahoma or Baylor will emerge from their game on Saturday as a 1-loss Big 12 conference champion. I can't envision a scenario in which any 2-loss team would be given a berth in the playoff over a 1-loss Power 5 conference champion.

Exactly. Plus Utah is -6.5 against Oregon, so they could well be two 12-1 teams along with three potential 13-0 teams in LSU, tOSU (-16) and Clemson (-28.5) before we worry about 11-2 teams. (Obviously If UGA +4 beats LSU, there are three or four one-loss teams, plus a likely two undefeated teams who at worse would fall into the one-loss category).

Steven43
12-05-2019, 09:55 PM
Either Oklahoma or Baylor will emerge from their game on Saturday as a 1-loss Big 12 conference champion. I can't envision a scenario in which any 2-loss team would be given a berth in the playoff over a 1-loss Power 5 conference champion.

Baylor hasn’t proven all that much. And frankly, they’re kind of a dud. They don’t have much tradition or name recognition. They don’t have any star players. They don’t have a big name coach. Their fans don’t travel. Their school isn’t exactly exciting or captivating. Why would ANYONE — college football fans, the media, the committee that chooses which teams make the Playoff — want Baylor?

I think they have basically zero shot of getting in, regardless of whether or not they beat Oklahoma. The committee will choose a two-loss Georgia over a one-loss Baylor if Georgia plays an exciting, close game with unbeaten powerhouse LSU. I promise you.

sagegrouse
12-05-2019, 10:13 PM
Baylor hasn’t proven all that much. And frankly, they’re kind of a dud. They don’t have much tradition or name recognition. They don’t have any star players. They don’t have a big name coach. Their fans don’t travel. Their school isn’t exactly exciting or captivating. Why would ANYONE — college football fans, the media, the committee that chooses which teams make the Playoff — want Baylor?

I think they have basically zero shot of getting in, regardless of whether or not they beat Oklahoma. The committee will choose a two-loss Georgia over a one-loss Baylor if Georgia plays an exciting, close game with unbeaten powerhouse LSU. I promise you.

When the Southwest Conference disbanded, the state schools -- Texas, A&M and Texas Tech joined Oklahoma and the Big Eight. One private school joined them -- Baylor -- not SMU, TCU or Rice. Shows the Baptist are stronger there than the Methodists, the Christian sect, or the agnostics. Baylor has a sizable and loyal fan base.

Steven43
12-05-2019, 10:22 PM
When the Southwest Conference disbanded, the state schools -- Texas, A&M and Texas Tech joined Oklahoma and the Big Eight. One private school joined them -- Baylor -- not SMU, TCU or Rice. Shows the Baptist are stronger there than the Methodists, the Christian sect, or the agnostics. Baylor has a sizable and loyal fan base.

You make an interesting point, Sage, but I have to tell you I spent much of my childhood in Texas and I do not remember encountering or even hearing about more than a handful of people who were Baylor fans. There were TONS of Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma fans, quite a few A&M fans, a decent number of SMU fans (especially during the Eric Dickerson/Craig James years), some Tech fans, and even TCU fans here and there. But Baylor? Not really.

By the way, have you ever been to Waco? If not, please don’t go. If you have been, I’m sorry.

uh_no
12-05-2019, 10:28 PM
True. Football would argue about which 2-loss team was left out; in basketball we get to argue about which P5 team with a .500 league average should play an almost-always meaningless play-in game.

(I love hoops, but as Cut said years ago — every weekend is a playoff game in football. Embrace the difference, I say)

for football, 6 w/ 2 byes is ideal for me most years. it's unlikely you're deciding between 2 p5 conference winners with gaudy records, there's space for a "wild card" like utah, and schools like clemson or LSU (assuming they win) get some benefit for being top 2. then we get to argue about the byes as well, so still plenty to argue about!

DU82
12-05-2019, 10:40 PM
When the Southwest Conference disbanded, the state schools -- Texas, A&M and Texas Tech joined Oklahoma and the Big Eight. One private school joined them -- Baylor -- not SMU, TCU or Rice. Shows the Baptist are stronger there than the Methodists, the Christian sect, or the agnostics. Baylor has a sizable and loyal fan base.

It was my understanding that at the time, they had the politicians that forced the state schools to take them with them to the Big Eight/Twelve. Wasn’t really anything about the fan base.

Acymetric
12-05-2019, 10:54 PM
for football, 6 w/ 2 byes is ideal for me most years. it's unlikely you're deciding between 2 p5 conference winners with gaudy records, there's space for a "wild card" like utah, and schools like clemson or LSU (assuming they win) get some benefit for being top 2. then we get to argue about the byes as well, so still plenty to argue about!

I would probably rather just have 8, but 6 with byes would be really good too.

sagegrouse
12-05-2019, 11:12 PM
You make an interesting point, Sage, but I have to tell you I spent much of my childhood in Texas and I do not remember encountering or even hearing about more than a handful of people who were Baylor fans. There were TONS of Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma fans, quite a few A&M fans, a decent number of SMU fans (especially during the Eric Dickerson/Craig James years), some Tech fans, and even TCU fans here and there. But Baylor? Not really.

By the way, have you ever been to Waco? If not, please don’t go. If you have been, I’m sorry.

Let me quote Jerry Jeff Walker's version of Charlie Pride's "Is Anybody Goin' to San Antone?"

Is anybody goin' to San Antone
Or Phoenix Arizona
Anyplace is alright as long as I
Don't have to go to Waco

AustinDevil
12-06-2019, 07:39 AM
It was my understanding that at the time, they had the politicians that forced the state schools to take them with them to the Big Eight/Twelve. Wasn’t really anything about the fan base.

This is 100% true. Ann Richards was Governor and Bob Bullock Lieutenant Governor; both Baylor grads. Also, Rice was pathetic and had been for decades, TCU was almost as pathetic and had been for decades, and SMU post-Death Penalty (1989-94) was also pathetic, and that had more to do with Duke guy Ken Pye than with the DP. If there were to be four teams taken, objectively the fourth should have been UH.

Baylor was a Big XII doormat for 15 years, then got stratospherically better for several years before letting athletes rape other students with impunity caught up with them. They’re good again and usually fill their 45,000-seat stadium, but they are closer to Wake than they are to Alabama.

AustinDevil
12-06-2019, 07:42 AM
I’m fine with four.

What is more interesting — arguing about who is 4/5, or who is 8/9?

Arguing about 4/5 is more interesting. But that is the wrong question. #5 often has roughly as strong a case for inclusion as numbers 3 and 4. The same will not be true of #9. Going to 8 will also make room for one G5 team, meaning that, as with the pre-playoff era, every FBS team, like every D1 MBB team, at least starts the season with a shot at the championship.

AustinDevil
12-06-2019, 07:43 AM
Champions of which conferences? MWC (Boise)? American (Cincy/Memphis)? Sun Belt (App)?

Champions of the P5 conferences, the highest-rated G5 champion, and two at-large.

Tripping William
12-06-2019, 08:01 AM
Champions of the P5 conferences, the highest-rated G5 champion, and two at-large.

But 11-2 Cincy (currently ranked 20th) would get in over 12-1 Boise (currently ranked 19th)? By virtue of splitting with Memphis?

AustinDevil
12-06-2019, 08:16 AM
But 11-2 Cincy (currently ranked 20th) would get in over 12-1 Boise (currently ranked 19th)? By virtue of splitting with Memphis?

Solely my prediction that UC would deserve it, having beaten Sagarin #18 and 11-1 Memphis on the road this week, and assuming Boise handles #76, four-loss Hawaii. Two losses, one avenged and the other on the road at tOSU (albeit a big margin), outweigh Boise’s loss to 5-loss BYU. Plus, it is a very strong AAC; five teams in the Top 40 and two more before you get to the #2 MWC team at #71 (which isn’t even Hawaii).

Tripping William
12-06-2019, 08:34 AM
Solely my prediction that UC would deserve it, having beaten Sagarin #18 and 11-1 Memphis on the road this week, and assuming Boise handles #76, four-loss Hawaii. Two losses, one avenged and the other on the road at tOSU (albeit a big margin), outweigh Boise’s loss to 5-loss BYU. Plus, it is a very strong AAC; five teams in the Top 40 and two more before you get to the #2 MWC team at #71 (which isn’t even Hawaii).

Reinflaming the Idaho congressional delegation, and highlighting OPK's point (with which I agree) that debating 4 vs. 5 seems much more interesting than debating 8 vs. 9.

And then, who are the two at-larges this year? Assume LSU, tOSU, Utah, and Clemson all win, without any particular fireworks (which, of course, introduces the notion of "style points," which adds yet another wrinkle). I would guess it would come down to two of Georgia (recent loser, meaning so much for the notion that "every week is a playoff", plus a loss to South Carolina), Florida (who lost to Georgia and undefeated LSU), Penn St. (losses to Minny and tOSU), and the (recent) loser of the Big XII title game (Baylor or OU).

sagegrouse
12-06-2019, 08:40 AM
This is 100% true. Ann Richards was Governor and Bob Bullock Lieutenant Governor; both Baylor grads. Also, Rice was pathetic and had been for decades, TCU was almost as pathetic and had been for decades, and SMU post-Death Penalty (1989-94) was also pathetic, and that had more to do with Duke guy Ken Pye than with the DP. If there were to be four teams taken, objectively the fourth should have been UH.

Baylor was a Big XII doormat for 15 years, then got stratospherically better for several years before letting athletes rape other students with impunity caught up with them. They’re good again and usually fill their 45,000-seat stadium, but they are closer to Wake than they are to Alabama.

And the disdain for newcomer University of Houston by Texas and Texas A&M cannot be underestimated.

AustinDevil
12-06-2019, 08:59 AM
And the disdain for newcomer University of Houston by Texas and Texas A&M cannot be underestimated.

That’s true; keeping Houston down was and is a major goal, especially then and especially for A&M. (I strongly dislike UH, fwiw.)

AustinDevil
12-06-2019, 09:00 AM
Reinflaming the Idaho congressional delegation, and highlighting OPK's point (with which I agree) that debating 4 vs. 5 seems much more interesting than debating 8 vs. 9.

On point 1: how many divisions have the whopping two Idaho Congress critters got?

On point 2: Absolutely more interesting. Just not fairer. Or better for the game.

AGDukesky
12-06-2019, 09:52 AM
That’s true; keeping Houston down was and is a major goal, especially then and especially for A&M. (I strongly dislike UH, fwiw.)

Why the disdain?

Tripping William
12-06-2019, 09:57 AM
On point 1: how many divisions have the whopping two Idaho Congress critters got?

On point 2: Absolutely more interesting. Just not fairer. Or better for the game.

There are actually four of them now (two Senators, two Congressmen), and they have had at least some history.

We'll have to agree to disagree on point 2.

And point 3?

AustinDevil
12-06-2019, 10:04 AM
Why the disdain?

If you mean A&M, it was just that they viewed Houston as "their" town (Dallas is more a UT town, though both schools are prominent in both areas) and the chance to leave a local rival behind was tempting.

If you mean me, it's lots of stories but in general, UH toward other Texas schools has always been quite a bit like Maryland toward other ACC schools.

AustinDevil
12-06-2019, 10:16 AM
There are actually four of them now (two Senators, two Congressmen), and they have had at least some history.

We'll have to agree to disagree on point 2.

And point 3?

On the at-large teams? Far too much depends on unknowns. But if all favorites won the conference-championship games and none were by overwhelming blowouts, then you've got LSU, Clemson, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Memphis (or Boise, or Cincinnati) and Utah in. Possibly 11-2 Georgia and 11-2 Baylor make the at-large list, neither of which would have two losses--which everyone else already has--but for playing in their conference-championship games.

At 8 teams, that's a fair outcome and no legitimate contender is shut out, nor is half of the FBS shut out. Unlike what is going to occur with the cutoff at 4.

Steven43
12-06-2019, 10:30 AM
If you mean A&M, it was just that they viewed Houston as "their" town (Dallas is more a UT town, though both schools are prominent in both areas) and the chance to leave a local rival behind was tempting.

If you mean me, it's lots of stories but in general, UH toward other Texas schools has always been quite a bit like Maryland toward other ACC schools.

As a former West Texan for 12 years and a resident of Austin for 14, I concur with your thoughts on the University of Houston. Though I’ve never lived in Houston or Dallas, I’ve visited both countless times and have quite a few friends and relatives in each. So I guess my info is secondhand, but it is consistent with what you’re saying. Fair or unfair, U of Houston is kind of an afterthought for most Texans.

AGDukesky
12-06-2019, 10:31 AM
If you mean A&M, it was just that they viewed Houston as "their" town (Dallas is more a UT town, though both schools are prominent in both areas) and the chance to leave a local rival behind was tempting.

If you mean me, it's lots of stories but in general, UH toward other Texas schools has always been quite a bit like Maryland toward other ACC schools.

I meant you. I actually went to UH so I know all about A&M. My impression was that Texas people rarely thought much about UH and - as someone who grew up in Texas - I know a ton of them. Everyone’s experience is unique but you are the first one I’ve heard make that particular complaint. Just curious.

AustinDevil
12-06-2019, 11:02 AM
I meant you. I actually went to UH so I know all about A&M. My impression was that Texas people rarely thought much about UH and - as someone who grew up in Texas - I know a ton of them. Everyone’s experience is unique but you are the first one I’ve heard make that particular complaint. Just curious.

No worries. Can't have rivalries without some combo of respect and disdain.

sagegrouse
12-06-2019, 03:15 PM
I meant you. I actually went to UH so I know all about A&M. My impression was that Texas people rarely thought much about UH and - as someone who grew up in Texas - I know a ton of them. Everyone’s experience is unique but you are the first one I’ve heard make that particular complaint. Just curious.

I spent 4+ years at Rice in grad school. Don't believe anything I say about U of H.

What's happening about plans for UT Houston? A real slap in the face to UH.

AustinDevil
12-06-2019, 03:24 PM
I spent 4+ years at Rice in grad school. Don't believe anything I say about U of H.

What's happening about plans for UT Houston? A real slap in the face to UH.

The 2017 plan? I believe that UT more or less backed off of that. Fertitta did a good job of exposing and pushing back on it.

kmspeaks
12-06-2019, 06:53 PM
Reinflaming the Idaho congressional delegation, and highlighting OPK's point (with which I agree) that debating 4 vs. 5 seems much more interesting than debating 8 vs. 9.

And then, who are the two at-larges this year? Assume LSU, tOSU, Utah, and Clemson all win, without any particular fireworks (which, of course, introduces the notion of "style points," which adds yet another wrinkle). I would guess it would come down to two of Georgia (recent loser, meaning so much for the notion that "every week is a playoff", plus a loss to South Carolina), Florida (who lost to Georgia and undefeated LSU), Penn St. (losses to Minny and tOSU), and the (recent) loser of the Big XII title game (Baylor or OU).

The problem with the "every week is a playoff" or the conference championships are de facto play-in/quarter final games argument is they are a poorly seeded, unbalanced playoff. Using the CFP rankings the conference title games are:
1 Ohio State vs 8 Wisconsin
2 LSU vs 4 Georgia
3 Clemson vs 23 Virginia
5 Utah vs 13 Oregon
6 Oklahoma vs 7 Baylor

So LSU's reward for being ranked 1 or 2 every week is to play #4 Georgia, OSU gets a top ten team, and Clemson plays....Virginia.

OldPhiKap
12-06-2019, 07:00 PM
The problem with the "every week is a playoff" or the conference championships are de facto play-in/quarter final games argument is they are a poorly seeded, unbalanced playoff. Using the CFP rankings the conference title games are:
1 Ohio State vs 8 Wisconsin
2 LSU vs 4 Georgia
3 Clemson vs 23 Virginia
5 Utah vs 13 Oregon
6 Oklahoma vs 7 Baylor

So LSU's reward for being ranked 1 or 2 every week is to play #4 Georgia, OSU gets a top ten team, and Clemson plays...Virginia.

True, but all of the top 8 are playing. They all have their chance to win and maybe move on. And if Whisky, Oklahoma or Baylor win but get knocked out well — two have a bad loss to blame (Whisky v. Illinois; OKlahoma v. Kansas St.). Baylor is the only one that might have a gripe, having only lost to OKlahoma and in this hypothetical having avenged that loss.

So not sure that a final 4 is worse than a final 8; ergo I like the current playoff without expanding. Better than the old days where no one played each other, and we had to argue about two different teams should be the National Champion without ever being on the same field.

jimsumner
12-06-2019, 07:57 PM
The biggest problem with the every-week-is-a-playoff theory is that it is virtually impossible for a college-football-analog to George Mason or Loyola to play itself into title picture. Ask Central Florida.

budwom
12-07-2019, 03:14 AM
so much for Utah's Defense of Considerable Death! Poseurs, not surprised at all. Thud.

Tripping William
12-07-2019, 07:17 AM
so much for Utah's Defense of Considerable Death! Poseurs, not surprised at all. Thud.

Yeah, I figured you & Paul Finebaum would be thrilled. Makes the committee’s job somewhat easier, though.

arnie
12-07-2019, 07:26 AM
Yeah, I figured you & Paul Finebaum would be thrilled. Makes the committee’s job somewhat easier, though.

It should, but the Baylor Bears (even with an ugly win) could throw a wrench into this. If LSU dominates UGA and both OSU/Clemson win as expected, where else can the committee go?

Tripping William
12-07-2019, 08:40 AM
It should, but the Baylor Bears (even with an ugly win) could throw a wrench into this. If LSU dominates UGA and both OSU/Clemson win as expected, where else can the committee go?

That's what makes it easier on the committee: If serve holds in the ACC/SEC/B1G title games, they don't have to debate Pac 12 champ vs. Big XII champ (it'll go to the one-loss Big XII champ).

House P
12-07-2019, 09:09 AM
The problem with the "every week is a playoff" or the conference championships are de facto play-in/quarter final games argument is they are a poorly seeded, unbalanced playoff.

Also, now that Utah has lost, it is hard to make the case that today’s games represent a “playoff” for Ohio State and LSU. Even Clemson has a strong chance of making the playoff with a loss today. This is probably the way it should be if the goal is to have the 4 most “deserving” teams make the actual playoff, but it certainly goes against the notion that “every week (late in the season) is a playoff”.

Earlier in the thread, I believe someone mentioned that no team has ever lost their conference title game and made the actual playoff. However, I wonder if the #1 team overall going into the conference championship games has ever lost their title game. I am too lazy to look this up, but I suspect this hasn’t happened yet.


My personal pet peeve is when a team has the chance to make the playoff without even having to play in a championship game (as would likely have been the case this year if Alabama had defeated Auburn last week). My solution to this would be to add an extra game during conference championship week between the top 2 ranked teams who did not qualify for their conference title games. Heck, you could even set it up so that a very highly ranked group of 5 team could choose to forgo their conference championship game to play the highest ranked power 5 team not eligible for their conference title game.

Bob Green
12-07-2019, 09:25 AM
Heck, you could even set it up so that a very highly ranked group of 5 team could choose to forgo their conference championship game to play the highest ranked power 5 team not eligible for their conference title game.

Theoretically, this is a solid format suggestion but I am not sure it is practical. Conference title game tickets are sold well in advance so fans would be unhappy to discover the conference favorite would not be participating.

Steven43
12-07-2019, 09:50 AM
It should, but the Baylor Bears (even with an ugly win) could throw a wrench into this. If LSU dominates UGA and both OSU/Clemson win as expected, where else can the committee go?

Yeah, if LSU dominates Georgia they (UGA) are done. Hopefully that won’t happen. I just can’t imagine Baylor as one of the final four teams. That would take quite a bit of the fun out of the Playoff. Baylor would be considerably less intriguing than even Washington was in 2016

Bob Green
12-07-2019, 10:03 AM
Here are my predictions prior to today’s games commencing. And yes, I acknowledge that posting predictions after the PAC12 game is over is cheating:

1. Ohio State
2. LSU
3. Clemson
4. Oklahoma

However, I will be rooting for Georgia to beat LSU.

AustinDevil
12-07-2019, 10:05 AM
Theoretically, this is a solid format suggestion but I am not sure it is practical. Conference title game tickets are sold well in advance so fans would be unhappy to discover the conference favorite would not be participating.

P5 tickets are sold well in advance but buyers often do not know if their team will make it until 6-7 days before.

G5 tickets are different. The highest rated team hosts. Often this isn’t even known until 6-7 in advance.

I wouldn’t support the G5 team being in what is essentially a play-in game, AND having to forego a shot at their own conference championship, anyway.

Bob Green
12-07-2019, 10:11 AM
G5 tickets are different. The highest rated team hosts. Often this isn’t even known until 6-7 in advance.



Thanks for the clarification.

House P
12-07-2019, 10:45 AM
Theoretically, this is a solid format suggestion but I am not sure it is practical. Conference title game tickets are sold well in advance so fans would be unhappy to discover the conference favorite would not be participating.


P5 tickets are sold well in advance but buyers often do not know if their team will make it until 6-7 days before.

G5 tickets are different. The highest rated team hosts. Often this isn’t even known until 6-7 in advance.

I wouldn’t support the G5 team being in what is essentially a play-in game, AND having to forego a shot at their own conference championship, anyway.

You both raise excellent points. As long as we are brainstorming, another option would be to have the Group of 5 teams move their conference title games up a week in order to allow them to win their conference championship AND have a shot against a highly ranked Power 5 team the next week. There are probably logistic challenges with this as well, but I suspect they may prefer this to never even having a shot at a championship.

BlueDevil16
12-07-2019, 12:43 PM
Who gets left out if OU win, Clemson win, Georgia win, and Wisco win?

arnie
12-07-2019, 01:31 PM
Who gets left out if OU win, Clemson win, Georgia win, and Wisco win?

Won’t happen, but would enjoy it. Suspect OU left out and LSU, OHiO still in.

Tripping William
12-07-2019, 01:35 PM
Won’t happen, but would enjoy it. Suspect OU left out and LSU, OHiO still in.

{delete; never mind}

Bob Green
12-07-2019, 01:44 PM
Halftime: Baylor 13, Oklahoma 10

Two significant factors:

1. OU QB Jalen Hurts with two turnovers a fumble and interception.

2. Baylor QB Charlie Brewer out of the game. His head hit the ground hard on a sack, he was evaluated on the sidelines and returned to the game for a series or two before the Head Ref approached the Baylor staff and told them Brewer needed additional evaluation. Brewer headed to the locker room and has not returned. 2nd half status unknown.

Ten of Baylor’s 13 points have been scored with the back-up QB on the field.

Bob Green
12-07-2019, 02:08 PM
Baylor Head Coach Matt Rhule just said Charlie Brewer is out for the rest of the game. Makes you wonder how he was cleared to return in the first place.

Bob Green
12-07-2019, 03:32 PM
Big XII Championship game headed to overtime tied at 23.

Faison1
12-07-2019, 03:33 PM
Halftime: Baylor 13, Oklahoma 10

Two significant factors:

1. OU QB Jalen Hurts with two turnovers a fumble and interception.

2. Baylor QB Charlie Brewer out of the game. His head hit the ground hard on a sack, he was evaluated on the sidelines and returned to the game for a series or two before the Head Ref approached the Baylor staff and told them Brewer needed additional evaluation. Brewer headed to the locker room and has not returned. 2nd half status unknown.

Ten of Baylor’s 13 points have been scored with the back-up QB on the field.

Really amazing to think Duke beat Baylor last year. What a tale of two seasons with programs seemingly going in different directions.

Duke absolutely dominated them in Waco, with Quentin at the helm.

Troublemaker
12-07-2019, 03:37 PM
I don't know much about football but it seems to me the 1 seed will be extremely important.

Even if LSU thinks they're already in, they better beat Georgia to (a) knock Ga out, (b) get the 1 seed and force OSU and Clemson to war a week before the title game, and (c) play an opponent that is much preferable to Ga or Clem or OSU.

HereBeforeCoachK
12-07-2019, 03:45 PM
Really amazing to think Duke beat Baylor last year. What a tale of two seasons with programs seemingly going in different directions.

Duke absolutely dominated them in Waco, with Quentin at the helm.

Bizarro world

Bob Green
12-07-2019, 03:45 PM
Oklahoma wins 30 - 23. If LSU beats Georgia, the Sooners should be in the CFP.

WakeDevil
12-07-2019, 04:09 PM
Oklahoma wins 30 - 23. If LSU beats Georgia, the Sooners should be in the CFP.

Georgia should not have to win to make it.

A-Tex Devil
12-07-2019, 04:14 PM
Georgia should not have to win to make it.

Meh. I’ll take the Big Five conference champion with one loss over the 2 loss non conference champion - without even looking at strength of schedule. Every. Single. Time.

I have no love for OU, but if LSU wins, they are in. And Baylor should have been too under same circumstances had they won.

Stray Gator
12-07-2019, 04:24 PM
Meh. I’ll take the Big Five conference champion with one loss over the 2 loss non conference champion - without even looking at strength of schedule. Every. Single. Time.

I have no love for OU, but if LSU wins, they are in. And Baylor should have been too under same circumstances had they won.

Without a doubt. Even if Georgia loses by only 1 point in overtime, that still leaves them as a 2-loss team -- with one of those losses coming at home to a team that finished the season with a 4-8 record. How can such a loss be completely ignored? Unless Georgia beats LSU, I cannot understand what reasoning could justify giving them a berth in the playoff over a 1-loss Power 5 conference champion.

OldPhiKap
12-07-2019, 04:46 PM
Georgia should not have to win to make it.

Georgia lost to South Carolina. In Athens.

If LSU wins, I would argue that Alabama has a better argument to get in that UGA. But neither would so it’s moot.

AGDukesky
12-07-2019, 05:54 PM
To me, LSU and Ohio State have been the most impressive teams all year. Both Oklahoma and Georgia had some pretty unimpressive performances against not the greatest opponents. Clemson has looked better since the UNC head scratcher, but the ACC is garbage. Whoever gets the fourth seed, which I assume will be Oklahoma, is just filling a slot.

wsb3
12-07-2019, 06:09 PM
Georgia lost to South Carolina. In Athens.

If LSU wins, I would argue that Alabama has a better argument to get in that UGA. But neither would so it’s moot.

I agree OPK.

Steven43
12-07-2019, 06:17 PM
Without a doubt. Even if Georgia loses by only 1 point in overtime, that still leaves them as a 2-loss team -- with one of those losses coming at home to a team that finished the season with a 4-8 record. How can such a loss be completely ignored? Unless Georgia beats LSU, I cannot understand what reasoning could justify giving them a berth in the playoff over a 1-loss Power 5 conference champion.

Georgia has three wins — Florida, Notre Dame, and Auburn — that are better than any wins Baylor had, at least as far as I can tell. I don’t see how Baylor compares at all favorably to Georgia.

And frankly, those three Georgia wins are better than any Alabama win. So the way I see it Georgie easily had a more impressive season than Alabama or Baylor.

A-Tex Devil
12-07-2019, 06:23 PM
Georgia has three wins — Florida, Notre Dame, and Auburn — that are better than any wins Baylor had, at least as far as I can tell. I don’t see how Baylor compares at all favorably to Georgia.

And frankly, those three Georgia wins are better than any Alabama win. So the way I see it Georgie easily had a more impressive season than Alabama or Baylor.

If Baylor had beaten OU, Baylor has a conference championship one less loss, and would have beaten OU which would have been better than Florida and arguably Auburn. They would also have not lost to a 4-8 team.

That’s all moot now though, though, so I’ll stop arguing it. Committee has it easy this year. Even if OSU loses. Oregon saw to that.

Stray Gator
12-07-2019, 06:26 PM
Georgia has three wins — Florida, Notre Dame, and Auburn — that are better than any wins Baylor had, at least as far as I can tell. I don’t see how Baylor compares at all favorably to Georgia.

And frankly, those three Georgia wins are better than any Alabama win. So the way I see it Georgie easily had a more impressive season than Alabama or Baylor.

Why is Baylor even a subject of this discussion anymore? The Big 12 champion is Oklahoma, which has only 1 loss. If Georgia doesn't beat LSU, it will have 2 losses -- one of which is unquestionably the worst loss of any other contender -- and it will not be a conference champion. If the Playoff Committee were to award a berth to Georgia over Oklahoma under those circumstances, I believe the outrage would be nearly universal . . . and abundantly justified.

Bob Green
12-07-2019, 06:46 PM
Georgia defense holds LSU to another FG. 20 - 3 LSU. Bulldogs offense has to get something going quickly.

Steven43
12-07-2019, 06:51 PM
Why is Baylor even a subject of this discussion anymore? The Big 12 champion is Oklahoma, which has only 1 loss. If Georgia doesn't beat LSU, it will have 2 losses -- one of which is unquestionably the worst loss of any other contender -- and it will not be a conference champion. If the Playoff Committee were to award a berth to Georgia over Oklahoma under those circumstances, I believe the outrage would be nearly universal . . . and abundantly justified.

My point is that you don’t just count wins and losses. A combination of strength of schedule, signature wins, and wins and losses are what matters the most as far as I see it. So if a team (Georgia) with a tough strength of schedule, three signature wins, but who lost two games is compared to a team (Baylor had they beaten Oklahoma today) with a lesser strength of schedule, only one signature win, but who only lost one game, well, I would take the team (Georgia) with two losses, particularly if one of those losses were to what is quite possibly the best team (LSU) in the nation.

That’s all I was trying to say. I fully understand it is a moot point now, at least as far as Baylor is concerned. However, allow me to also add that if Georgia gets absolutely demolished by LSU, then it weakens their case considerably.

jimsumner
12-07-2019, 07:06 PM
Georgia might--not the qualifier--have had a case with an epic loss to LSU, 38-35 in double OT or some such. But the beatdown they are currently absorbing makes that a moot point.

Bob Green
12-07-2019, 07:10 PM
Georgia might--not the qualifier--have had a case with an epic loss to LSU, 38-35 in double OT or some such. But the beatdown they are currently absorbing makes that a moot point.

LSU is playing for the #1 seed dismantling Georgia 34 - 3.

Steven43
12-07-2019, 07:34 PM
Georgia might--not the qualifier--have had a case with an epic loss to LSU, 38-35 in double OT or some such. But the beatdown they are currently absorbing makes that a moot point.

Yep, Georgia is done. I knew LSU was good, but I didn’t think their defense could do what they are doing today to the Bulldogs. We’ll shortly see what Ohio State has got. It should be interesting.

SouthernDukie
12-07-2019, 08:40 PM
LSU is playing for the #1 seed dismantling Georgia 34 - 3.

And they deserve it, no matter what OSU does later tonight. They are the best team in the country. Then I think it’s a toss up between Ohio State and Clemson for second best. OU will get the fourth slot.

P.S. This is assuming Clemson’s defense decides to show up tonight.

Steven43
12-07-2019, 08:51 PM
Does anyone think Wisconsin has a chance at the fourth spot? They crushed No. 11 Michigan. They beat No. 18 Iowa. They destroyed No. 8 Minnesota on the road. And if they beat Ohio State tonight, on a neutral field, they will have just beaten a No. 1 ranked and previously undefeated demolition machine.

They would be 11-2 and a conference champion. And their only losses would have been by one point on the road at Illinois and at undefeated Ohio State. I would take them over a somewhat unimpressive Oklahoma any day.

A-Tex Devil
12-07-2019, 09:00 PM
Does anyone think Wisconsin has a chance at the fourth spot? They crushed No. 11 Michigan. They beat No. 18 Iowa. They destroyed No. 8 Minnesota on the road. And if they beat Ohio State tonight, on a neutral field, they will have just beaten a No. 1 ranked and previously undefeated demolition machine.

They would be 11-2 and a conference champion. And their only losses would have been by one point on the road at Illinois and at undefeated Ohio State. I would take them over a somewhat unimpressive Oklahoma any day.

I think they’d have to annihilate Ohio St. But it would be hard to justify putting Ohio St in ahead of Wisconsin in that scenario. If Wisconsin wins by 1-20 pts, I think you suggest they split the season series and Wiscy has the loss to Illinois to push Ohio St in.

Steven43
12-07-2019, 09:11 PM
I think they’d have to annihilate Ohio St. But it would be hard to justify putting Ohio St in ahead of Wisconsin in that scenario. If Wisconsin wins by 1-20 pts, I think you suggest they split the season series and Wiscy has the loss to Illinois to push Ohio St in.

No, I’m saying they BOTH get in.

arnie
12-07-2019, 09:11 PM
I think they’d have to annihilate Ohio St. But it would be hard to justify putting Ohio St in ahead of Wisconsin in that scenario. If Wisconsin wins by 1-20 pts, I think you suggest they split the season series and Wiscy has the loss to Illinois to push Ohio St in.

Wisconsin up 14-0 early 2nd quarter. Is it possible both Big 10 teams get in and OK left out?

SouthernDukie
12-07-2019, 09:12 PM
No, I’m saying they BOTH get in.

God forbid. I would vomit.

Steven43
12-07-2019, 09:12 PM
Wisconsin up 14-0 early 2nd quarter. Is it possible both Big 10 teams get in and OK left out?

Yes! Oklahoma has played a mediocre schedule and not even looked very good doing it. What are their signature wins? Barely beating an overrated Baylor team twice? I’m sorry, but OU ain’t all that. Wisconsin would beat them were they to play.

Steven43
12-07-2019, 09:15 PM
God forbid. I would vomit.

Wait....why?

SouthernDukie
12-07-2019, 09:15 PM
Right now I think we have 3 absolutely in: LSU, Clemson, and Oklahoma. No way two Big Ten teams get in. That would be a travesty.

Troublemaker
12-07-2019, 09:15 PM
I'd be interested in a serious debate between tOSU and Wiscy for the 4th spot if this score holds up. I can't see OU getting denied, although they are probably locked into the 4th seed.

If score holds up,

1. LSU vs 4. OU
2. Clemson vs 3. tOSU

SouthernDukie
12-07-2019, 09:16 PM
Wait...why?

I hate the Big Ten. :D

Steven43
12-07-2019, 09:16 PM
Right now I think we have 3 absolutely in: LSU, Clemson, and Oklahoma. No way two Big Ten teams get in. That would be a travesty.

What impressive wins does Oklahoma have? Why should they get in? The Big 12 is not very good. I don’t understand this Oklahoma love at all.

Steven43
12-07-2019, 09:21 PM
I'd be interested in a serious debate between tOSU and Wiscy for the 4th spot if this score holds up. I can't see OU getting denied, although they are probably locked into the 4th seed.

If score holds up,

1. LSU vs 4. OU
2. Clemson vs 3. tOSU

Ohio State, LSU, and Clemson are already locks to get in. The only potential debate is between Wisconsin and OU.

arnie
12-07-2019, 09:25 PM
What impressive wins does Oklahoma have? Why should they get in? The Big 12 is not very good. I don’t understand this Oklahoma love at all.

Can’t stand the arrogant Big 10 either; but in the unlikely event Wisconsin does hold on, not sure OK should go ahead of either team.

SouthernDukie
12-07-2019, 09:27 PM
Can’t stand the arrogant Big 10 either; but in the unlikely event Wisconsin does hold on, not sure OK should go ahead of either team.

Nah, Oklahoma is in.

Steven43
12-07-2019, 09:28 PM
Hey, I’m not really a Big 10 fan, either, but they are clearly one of the two best conferences (the SEC is obviously the other) this year. The Big 12 isn’t even close. And I’m a Texas Longhorns fan.

SouthernDukie
12-07-2019, 09:29 PM
Ohio State, LSU, and Clemson are already locks to get in. The only potential debate is between Wisconsin and OU.

I don’t agree. OSU has to stay home if they lose tonight.

SouthernDukie
12-07-2019, 09:31 PM
Hey, I’m not really a Big 10 fan, either, but they are clearly one of the two best conferences (the SEC is obviously the other) this year. The Big 12 isn’t even close. And I’m a Texas Longhorns fan.

I just can’t see putting 2 Big Ten teams in the playoffs.

Steven43
12-07-2019, 09:32 PM
I don’t agree. OSU has to stay home if they lose tonight.

You may wish for that (OSU staying home) to be the case, but it won’t come close to happening. Ohio State is in, regardless. As an FYI, I always root against Ohio State. I’m just being realistic.

SouthernDukie
12-07-2019, 09:37 PM
You may wish for that (OSU staying home) to be the case, but it won’t come close to happening. Ohio State is in, regardless. As an FYI, I always root against Ohio State. I’m just being realistic.

They may slide in, but there’s no way OSU and Wisconsin are both going while Oklahoma stays home. Talk about riots in the streets.

brlftz
12-07-2019, 09:42 PM
Did Clemson borrow our receivers tonight?

Troublemaker
12-07-2019, 09:47 PM
Hey, I’m not really a Big 10 fan, either, but they are clearly one of the two best conferences (the SEC is obviously the other) this year. The Big 12 isn’t even close. And I’m a Texas Longhorns fan.

Yeah, but the Big 12 is probably still the 3rd-best conference and ahead of the ACC and Pac-12, for example.

The P5 conferences are in this to make money together, and politically, I can't see a 1-loss OU getting denied.

So it's tOSU vs Wiscy as the debate if Wiscy wins, although tOSU is probably heavily favored in that debate.

Steven43
12-07-2019, 09:49 PM
They may slide in, but there’s no way OSU and Wisconsin are both going while Oklahoma stays home. Talk about riots in the streets.

I seriously doubt it. I don’t know even one person who has been all that impressed with Oklahoma this season. Who would be rioting in favor of OU other than biased Sooners fans?

SouthernDukie
12-07-2019, 09:55 PM
Yeah, but the Big 12 is probably still the 3rd-best conference and ahead of the ACC and Pac-12, for example.

The P5 conferences are in this to make money together, and politically, I can't see a 1-loss OU getting denied.

So it's tOSU vs Wiscy as the debate if Wiscy wins, although tOSU is probably heavily favored in that debate.

Yep. That’s my reasoning as well. Although a team losing its conference championship game and still getting in doesn’t sit right with me.

A-Tex Devil
12-07-2019, 10:05 PM
What impressive wins does Oklahoma have? Why should they get in? The Big 12 is not very good. I don’t understand this Oklahoma love at all.

How do we know the Big XII isn’t good? Texas is middle of the pack in that conference and gave LSU a better game than Bama did. The problem is once you get into conference play, it’s all confirmation bias because all you play is who is in your conference. If there are 7 SEC teams in the top 25 in week 4 when conference play starts, “my, didn’t all those teams play a tough schedule.”

I’d love it if OU was squeezed out. But it wouldn’t be right. Wisconsin lost to Illinois.

SouthernDukie
12-07-2019, 10:13 PM
Everyone is clamoring for an eight team playoff. And I’m all for that myself. But what we have right now is effectively that with these conference championship games. I think any team that doesn’t win in their conference championship game has effectively lost a playoff game. That’s why I’m not for OSU getting in if they lose tonight.

Steven43
12-07-2019, 10:13 PM
How do we know the Big XII isn’t good? Texas is middle of the pack in that conference and gave LSU a better game than Bama did. The problem is once you get into conference play, it’s all confirmation bias because all you play is who is in your conference. If there are 7 SEC teams in the top 25 in week 4 when conference play starts, “my, didn’t all those teams play a tough schedule.”

I’d love it if OU was squeezed out. But it wouldn’t be right. Wisconsin lost to Illinois.

I agree with everything you wrote except for your second-to-last sentence.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
12-07-2019, 10:16 PM
Congrats to UVa - the most recent altar division sacrifice to the Atlantic Division.

Steven43
12-07-2019, 10:22 PM
What a catch by OSU’s Ruckert! Wow.

SouthernDukie
12-07-2019, 10:35 PM
What a catch by OSU’s Ruckert! Wow.

That was pedestrian compared to Clemson's Higgins in the first half.

SouthernDukie
12-07-2019, 10:41 PM
Wisconsin looking like the team I thought they were. A team that’s no better than 10th in the nation, if that. I’d take any one of about a half dozen SEC teams over them.

uh_no
12-07-2019, 10:54 PM
Wisconsin looking like the team I thought they were. A team that’s no better than 10th in the nation, if that. I’d take any one of about a half dozen SEC teams over them.

so they are....who you thought they were.....did you let them off the hook?

Steven43
12-07-2019, 10:58 PM
Wisconsin looking like the team I thought they were. A team that’s no better than 10th in the nation, if that. I’d take any one of about a half dozen SEC teams over them.

You do realize Wisconsin is playing the no.1 ranked team in the nation, right? A team that is not only undefeated, but hasn’t really even been challenged all year while crushing their opponents at historic levels. And Wisconsin is still only down by 3 points.

Is Georgia, a team that got annihilated today, one of those half dozen SEC teams you would so readily take over Wisconsin? I personally think that would be a very close game.

SouthernDukie
12-07-2019, 10:59 PM
so they are...who you thought they were....did you let them off the hook?

What hook? I didn’t expect them to give OSU a game. To my delight they did just that for the entire 1st half. But alas, they seem to have reverted to form in the 2nd.

Steven43
12-07-2019, 11:02 PM
What hook? I didn’t expect them to give OSU a game. To my delight they did just that for the entire 1st half. But alas, they seem to have reverted to form in the 2nd.

What form are you referring to? They’ve beaten several good teams this year while losing only twice — by one point on the road and the other to undefeated powerhouse Ohio State.

uh_no
12-07-2019, 11:03 PM
What hook? I didn’t expect them to give OSU a game. To my delight they did just that for the entire 1st half. But alas, they seem to have reverted to form in the 2nd.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SWmQbk5h86w&t=29s

SouthernDukie
12-07-2019, 11:04 PM
You do realize Wisconsin is playing the no.1 ranked team in the nation, right? A team that is not only undefeated, but hasn’t really even been challenged all year while crushing their opponents at historic levels. And Wisconsin is still only down by 3 points.

Is Georgia, a team that got annihilated today, one of those half dozen SEC teams you would so readily take over Wisconsin? I personally think that would be a very close game.

Absolutely. And if we are really going to get into it, I’ll state for the record I think the SEC is so far superior to the Big Ten that I’d take LSU, Georgia, and a healthy Alabama in a relatively easy win over OSU any day of the week and twice on Sundays. Heck, I’d take even money on Florida and Auburn beating OSU as well.

OSU may have started the day as #1, but I’ll be darned if they are any higher than #3 come tomorrow. If not, call for a congressional investigation.

SouthernDukie
12-07-2019, 11:06 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SWmQbk5h86w&t=29s

LOL, totally forgot about that classic! :D:D:D

Steven43
12-07-2019, 11:11 PM
Absolutely. And if we are really going to get into it, I’ll state for the record I think the SEC is so far superior to the Big Ten that I’d take LSU, Georgia, and a healthy Alabama in a relatively easy win over OSU any day of the week and twice on Sundays. Heck, I’d take even money on Florida and Auburn beating OSU as well.

OSU may have started the day as #1, but I’ll be darned if they are any higher than #3 come tomorrow. If not, call for a congressional investigation.

#3, huh? Behind Clemson? Who has Clemson beaten? Who did they play today, a JV team? Ohio State has a roster absolutely bursting at the seams with NFL players. Not sure why you’re trying to discredit them.

uh_no
12-07-2019, 11:11 PM
LOL, totally forgot about that classic! :D:D:D

well, i figured given we're talkin' about playoffs....playoffs? playoffs?!?!? PLAYOFFS! I figured i'd toss in another classic presser

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7fjDS0jKiE&t=14

YmoBeThere
12-07-2019, 11:12 PM
OSU may have started the day as #1, but I’ll be darned if they are any higher than #3 come tomorrow. If not, call for a congressional investigation.

While I agree with you that tOSU is overrated, I think you'll be disappointed that an investigation won't occur. I do think after today that it will be LSU-OU & Clemson-tOSU.

Stray Gator
12-07-2019, 11:13 PM
#3, huh? Behind Clemson? Who has Clemson beaten? Who did they play today, a JV team? Ohio State has a roster absolutely littered with NFL players. Not sure why you’re trying to discredit them.

What difference does it make whether tOSU is ranked #2 or #3? Either way, they'll face Clemson in the semifinal game. Based on the results of today's games, in which LSU beat a higher-ranked team on what is virtually its home turf in far more convincing fashion, I don't think there should be much debate that LSU should now be the #1-ranked team in the CFP.

CrazyNotCrazie
12-07-2019, 11:16 PM
#3, huh? Behind Clemson? Who has Clemson beaten? Who did they play today, a JV team? Ohio State has a roster absolutely bursting at the seams with NFL players. Not sure why you’re trying to discredit them.

I totally agree with you. I'm ok with LSU jumping to #1 but unless something really nutty happens in the next 10 minutes of football, Ohio State is #2. Though it doesn't really matter whether you are 2 or 3.

I have heard a lot about what a great coach Riley is at Oklahoma and how the NFL would love him. Assuming they are 4 and play LSU (or even if they play one of the other top teams), it will be interesting to see what his team can do with 3 weeks to prepare.

SouthernDukie
12-07-2019, 11:27 PM
What difference does it make whether tOSU is ranked #2 or #3? Either way, they'll face Clemson in the semifinal game. Based on the results of today's games, in which LSU beat a higher-ranked team on what is virtually its home turf in far more convincing fashion, I don't think there should be much debate that LSU should now be the #1-ranked team in the CFP.

Oh it won’t matter in the long run whether OSU is ranked number two or number three. Personally I think Clemson easily passed them today with their dominant performance. But I won’t argue the point. As long as LSU is number one everything else will sort itself out.

dudog84
12-08-2019, 12:12 AM
Absolutely. And if we are really going to get into it, I’ll state for the record I think the SEC is so far superior to the Big Ten that I’d take LSU, Georgia, and a healthy Alabama in a relatively easy win over OSU any day of the week and twice on Sundays. Heck, I’d take even money on Florida and Auburn beating OSU as well.

OSU may have started the day as #1, but I’ll be darned if they are any higher than #3 come tomorrow. If not, call for a congressional investigation.

In an internet designed for ludicrous statements, this is still absurd. And I don't like tOSU.

HereBeforeCoachK
12-08-2019, 06:35 AM
Oh it won’t matter in the long run whether OSU is ranked number two or number three. Personally I think Clemson easily passed them today with their dominant performance. But I won’t argue the point. As long as LSU is number one everything else will sort itself out.

Signed,
Paul Finebaum

SouthernDukie
12-08-2019, 07:57 AM
In an internet designed for ludicrous statements, this is still absurd. And I don't like tOSU.

So you think OSU, if they played in the SEC, would just as easily go undefeated there as they did in the Big Ten? That would be ludicrous.

YmoBeThere
12-08-2019, 08:18 AM
So you think OSU, if they played in the SEC, would just as easily go undefeated there as they did in the Big Ten? That would be ludicrous.

They may not go undefeated, but I also don't think they would lose more than a game. There are only three teams of their caliber in the SEC, LSU, UGA and 'bama with a healthy Tua.

Reilly
12-08-2019, 08:21 AM
Do we really need a CFB playoff committee? What if we had an objective rule that we will take the four highest-rated teams in the espn fpi that are conference champs:

http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings

That gives 1 Ohio State; 2 Clemson; 3 LSU; and 9 Oklahoma ... bypassing Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, Oregon, and Florida.

In effect, that is what the humans give us nearly every year, so just make it objective (and reward championships and recent winning).

Reilly
12-08-2019, 08:29 AM
As for the group of 5 NY6 participant, the espn fpi has the contenders as 21 ucf; 24 memphis; 25 boise st; 30 app st

SouthernDukie
12-08-2019, 08:34 AM
They may not go undefeated, but I also don't think they would lose more than a game. There are only three teams of their caliber in the SEC, LSU, UGA and 'bama with a healthy Tua.

That's essentially what I stated upthread, although I think all 3 of those SEC teams would have a better than 50% chance at beating OSU. Then I stated that it would be a coinflip between OSU and a couple of other SEC teams - Florida & Auburn.

Reilly
12-08-2019, 08:59 AM
247 projections: VT to Charlotte; WFU to NYC; Carolina to Annapolis - https://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/bowl-projections-college-football-playoff-rankings-Ohio-State-Michigan-LSU-Clemson-Alabama-Tennessee-Penn-State-Georgia-139999632/#139999632_8

Both espn guys have VT in Charlotte; Pitt in Annapolis; WFU in NYC: https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/28246624/college-football-bowl-projections

CBS has Pitt in NYC; WFU to Sun: https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

CFN says Pitt to Charlotte; VT to Sun: https://collegefootballnews.com/2019/12/bowl-projections-college-football-playoff-predictions-final-picks

Timing today per Stewart Mandel on Twitter:

Your Selection Sunday schedule:

12:15 PM ET: Playoff field announced.

3 PM ET: Remaining New Year's Six bowls, final Top 25.

Other bowl announcements will trickle out from there.

SouthernDukie
12-08-2019, 08:59 AM
Signed,
Paul Finebaum

My handle is "Southern" Dukie. :cool:

vick
12-08-2019, 09:02 AM
That's essentially what I stated upthread, although I think all 3 of those SEC teams would have a better than 50% chance at beating OSU. Then I stated that it would be a coinflip between OSU and a couple of other SEC teams - Florida & Auburn.

OSU would likely be double digit favorites against Florida (16 point edge in Sagarin predictor, 12 in FPI, etc.).

OldPhiKap
12-08-2019, 09:13 AM
Timing today per Stewart Mandel on Twitter:

Your Selection Sunday schedule:

12:15 PM ET: Playoff field announced.

3 PM ET: Remaining New Year's Six bowls, final Top 25.

Other bowl announcements will trickle out from there.

Thanks, this is the info I need for the day!

Am I correct that there is one more qualifying team than there are bowl slots? And if there is a bubble team, how is Seth Greenberg affiliated with them?

dudog84
12-08-2019, 09:14 AM
So you think OSU, if they played in the SEC, would just as easily go undefeated there as they did in the Big Ten? That would be ludicrous.

That is not close, not even in the stadium, to what you wrote.

Reilly
12-08-2019, 09:15 AM
McMurphy: WFU to NYC; Carolina to Annapolis against Temple; VT to Charlotte: https://watchstadium.com/news/brett-mcmurphys-final-college-football-bowl-projections-12-08-2019/

OldPhiKap
12-08-2019, 09:19 AM
I live in SEC country and see more of their games than anyone else (especially with the advent of the locally-absent ACCN). Year in and year out, the SEC is generally the strongest conference in the nation.

But tOSU has been dominant this year, first half of last night notwithstanding. They would be favored, correctly IMHO, against UGA or ‘Bama on a neutral site let alone UF or Auburn.

And I am not a fan of tOSU by any stretch; I was rooting like hell for the Badgers last night just because.

SouthernDukie
12-08-2019, 09:59 AM
I live in SEC country and see more of their games than anyone else (especially with the advent of the locally-absent ACCN). Year in and year out, the SEC is generally the strongest conference in the nation.

But tOSU has been dominant this year, first half of last night notwithstanding. They would be favored, correctly IMHO, against UGA or ‘Bama on a neutral site let alone UF or Auburn.

And I am not a fan of tOSU by any stretch; I was rooting like hell for the Badgers last night just because.

Thankfully, the playoffs will help us to see if OSU is the real deal or not. They might surprise me, but I'm just not convinced they are head and shoulders above the SEC teams I've mentioned, nor with Clemson. Let's see how it plays out and then we'll know more.

duke2x
12-08-2019, 10:23 AM
Do we really need a CFB playoff committee? What if we had an objective rule that we will take the four highest-rated teams in the espn fpi that are conference champs: http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings
That gives 1 Ohio State; 2 Clemson; 3 LSU; and 9 Oklahoma ... bypassing Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, Oregon, and Florida. In effect, that is what the humans give us nearly every year, so just make it objective (and reward championships and recent winning).

That poll also thinks 6-6 UNC is better than 9-4 UVA, 8-4 Wake, 8-4 VT, and 7-5 Pittsburgh. I've seen all of those teams in person. My eye test agrees with the scoreboard result that X > UNC.

What do the composite rankings say that are posted on here? Having 20+ polls helps, but a major problem with football computer rankings is the limited sample size. College football scheduling is a good topic but way beyond the scope of this thread.

YmoBeThere
12-08-2019, 10:30 AM
That's essentially what I stated upthread, although I think all 3 of those SEC teams would have a better than 50% chance at beating OSU. Then I stated that it would be a coinflip between OSU and a couple of other SEC teams - Florida & Auburn.

It really depends on when during the year they played. With Cager and other WR injuries, Georgia’s offense is meager at best as was witnessed yesterday against a good but not great LSU defense. To pick UGA over OSU now would be misinformed. Similar reasoning holds for a Tua less Alabama.

I’m looking forward to Clemson-LSU and a 3rd in 4 years ACC team as National Champion.

AustinDevil
12-08-2019, 10:40 AM
Hey, I’m not really a Big 10 fan, either, but they are clearly one of the two best conferences (the SEC is obviously the other) this year. The Big 12 isn’t even close. And I’m a Texas Longhorns fan.

Just curious—don’t you occasionally comment about Duke and whether high-level football is compatible with the mission of the university? And you also root for Texas?

A-Tex Devil
12-08-2019, 10:48 AM
Absolutely. And if we are really going to get into it, I’ll state for the record I think the SEC is so far superior to the Big Ten that I’d take LSU, Georgia, and a healthy Alabama in a relatively easy win over OSU any day of the week and twice on Sundays. Heck, I’d take even money on Florida and Auburn beating OSU as well.

OSU may have started the day as #1, but I’ll be darned if they are any higher than #3 come tomorrow. If not, call for a congressional investigation.

Username checks out.

The SEC has been living off of Bama’s results as a collective for almost 10 years.

I agree that they are the best conference. I’ll grant that. But statement above sounds straight out of Finebaum show.

Edited to add - SEC middle is soft and bottom is horrible this year even by SEC standards. It protects the top teams (look at all these 1/2 loss teams!) and props them up. Where middle and bottom is less weak in Big 10, Big XII and PAC 12, the conference slate ends up being more ripe for a loss.

I will be interested to see how Auburn, Florida, and A&M do in their bowls this year.

Neals384
12-08-2019, 11:01 AM
Do we really need a CFB playoff committee? What if we had an objective rule that we will take the four highest-rated teams in the espn fpi that are conference champs:

http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings

That gives 1 Ohio State; 2 Clemson; 3 LSU; and 9 Oklahoma ... bypassing Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, Oregon, and Florida.

In effect, that is what the humans give us nearly every year, so just make it objective (and reward championships and recent winning).

Whoa there, Reilly. I hate to crash your Sooner Schooner, but it would be 1 Ohio State; 2 Clemson; 3 LSU; and 7 Oregon. Go Ducks!

OldPhiKap
12-08-2019, 11:09 AM
Whoa there, Reilly. I hate to crash your Sooner Schooner, but it would be 1 Ohio State; 2 Clemson; 3 LSU; and 7 Oregon. Go Ducks!

(i.e. “Okay, Boomer Sooner”)

Bob Green
12-08-2019, 12:24 PM
1. LSU
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Oklahoma

Stray Gator
12-08-2019, 12:26 PM
1. LSU
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Oklahoma

The Committee got it exactly right, IMO.

Bob Green
12-08-2019, 12:48 PM
The Committee got it exactly right, IMO.

I agree.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
12-08-2019, 12:50 PM
The Committee got it exactly right, IMO.

Well, that's no fun.

Steven43
12-08-2019, 01:00 PM
(i.e. “Okay, Boomer Sooner”)

Clever.

Gosh, I really do not like that expression. Probably because a friend of mine continually uses it against me, even though I am too young to be a baby boomer. Soooo annoying.

By the way, LSU is going to beat Oklahoma by double digits. Not exactly a hot take, I know. I have no clue about Ohio State versus Clemson. It should be a truly great game — worthy of being a the National Championship game.

Bob Green
12-08-2019, 01:13 PM
Clever.

Gosh, I really do not like that expression. Probably because a friend of mine continually uses it against me, even though I am too young to be a baby boomer. Soooo annoying.



Boomer Sooner has nothing to do with baby boomer. Two unrelated terms.

Steven43
12-08-2019, 01:26 PM
No, Bob, OPK wrote “Okay Boomer” (and added “Sooner” to be clever). You have heard this phrase recently, no? I assumed that’s what he was doing. Maybe I incorrectly gave him credit. If so, my bad.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/OK_Boomer

Bob Green
12-08-2019, 01:32 PM
No, Bob, OPK wrote “Okay Boomer” (and added “Sooner” to be clever). You have heard this phrase recently, no? I assumed that’s what he was doing. Maybe I incorrectly gave him credit. If so, my bad.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/OK_Boomer

Oops. I missed it.

kshepinthehouse
12-08-2019, 01:33 PM
Clever.

Gosh, I really do not like that expression. Probably because a friend of mine continually uses it against me, even though I am too young to be a baby boomer. Soooo annoying.

By the way, LSU is going to beat Oklahoma by double digits. Not exactly a hot take, I know. I have no clue about Ohio State versus Clemson. It should be a truly great game — worthy of being a the National Championship game.

I think Ohio State is going to romp too depending on Fields health.

Steven43
12-08-2019, 01:52 PM
I think Ohio State is going to romp too depending on Fields health.
Really? You think Ohio State is going to beat Clemson handily? Hmm, I don’t know about that. I think it’s going to be an exciting and close game. Clemson has a HUGE coaching advantage. It would be a mistake to discount that.

SouthernDukie
12-08-2019, 02:03 PM
The Committee got it exactly right, IMO.

They got it almost exactly right. Switch two and three and they would have it exactly right. I think Clemson will win in a competitive game against OSU.

SouthernDukie
12-08-2019, 02:06 PM
I think Ohio State is going to romp too depending on Fields health.

Wow! No faith in Clemson huh? I guess the previous two out of three championships isn’t enough for you to respect them. OK, we will see. A Clemson romp would not surprise me. But neither would a semi-close win by Clemson. Anything involving a Buckeye’s victory other than a very close win would totally surprise me. A romp by them? Can’t see it at all.

HereBeforeCoachK
12-08-2019, 02:07 PM
The Committee got it exactly right, IMO.

And they're very happy that
LSU romped
Ohio State struggled but won
Clemson romped
Oklahoma won.

Made it easier than it could have been......

SouthernDukie
12-08-2019, 02:31 PM
It’s such a shame that we have a bunch of idiots voting in the AP poll. What fools. Five of the Top 10 teams are from the pathetic SEC. Only one from the dominant and best conference, the big ten. Will those AP fools never learn? :rolleyes:

Buckminsterfuller
12-08-2019, 02:59 PM
It’s such a shame that we have a bunch of idiots voting in the AP poll. What fools. Five of the Top 10 teams are from the pathetic SEC. Only one from the dominant and best conference, the big ten. Will those AP fools never learn? :rolleyes:

At least you have been consistent with your Dixie bias. I like LSU and agree that they pass the eye test. So does Clemson, but they are untested this year.

OSU is the first team in the CFP era to win 9 conference games and their conference championship. And they didn't schedule an FBS team, not UNCC and Wofford.

The computers LOVE OSU. Here's something different than the eye test to chew on...

Current Sagarin-PREDICTOR ratings:

Ohio State [#1, 106.22]
Clemson [#2, 101.25]
LSU [#4, 98.27]
Oklahoma [#6, 92.81]

Projected pointspreads for the possible combinations of those teams are:

OSU -5 vs Clemson
OSU -8 vs LSU
OSU -13 vs Oklahoma
Clemson -3 vs LSU
Clemson -8 vs Oklahoma
LSU -5 vs Oklahoma

I hope the Buckeyes burst your bubble like they did in the first CFP.

Bob Green
12-08-2019, 03:06 PM
I hope the Buckeyes burst your bubble like they did in the first CFP.

I’ll be rooting for Clemson to put a beat down on the Buckeyes. Go ACC!

arnie
12-08-2019, 03:19 PM
I’ll be rooting for Clemson to put a beat down on the Buckeyes. Go ACC!

Yea one more beatdown & Big whatever/PAC 12 should withdraw from BCS to emphasize the Rose Bowl. This was actually opined in WSJ years ago and now I think time has come. Less embarrassment for those two small time conferences😂

JasonEvans
12-08-2019, 03:20 PM
Current Sagarin-PREDICTOR ratings:

Ohio State [#1, 106.22]
Clemson [#2, 101.25]
LSU [#4, 98.27]
Oklahoma [#6, 92.81]

Projected pointspreads for the possible combinations of those teams are:

OSU -5 vs Clemson
OSU -8 vs LSU
OSU -13 vs Oklahoma
Clemson -3 vs LSU
Clemson -8 vs Oklahoma
LSU -5 vs Oklahoma

Look, I love me some computer generated pointspreads and all, but if you can find me LSU -5 against Oklahoma I have a LOT OF MONEY to bet on that. And when tOSU and LSU play for the title, LSU plus 8 is extremely attractive.

-Jason "no sportsbook in the world would publish those lines... LSU is gonna be more like 10-12 points over OK" Evans

Reilly
12-08-2019, 03:46 PM
That poll also thinks 6-6 UNC is better than 9-4 UVA, 8-4 Wake, 8-4 VT, and 7-5 Pittsburgh. I've seen all of those teams in person. My eye test agrees with the scoreboard result that X > UNC.

What do the composite rankings say that are posted on here? Having 20+ polls helps, but a major problem with football computer rankings is the limited sample size. College football scheduling is a good topic but way beyond the scope of this thread.


Whoa there, Reilly. I hate to crash your Sooner Schooner, but it would be 1 Ohio State; 2 Clemson; 3 LSU; and 7 Oregon. Go Ducks!

Thanks for catching Oregon over OU based on championship + higher ranking objective criteria. I'd take that.

UNC 40, UVA 44 -- so, flip them. They're middling/good teams. Carolina's higher slot due to 1-point loss to Clemson as opposed to Virginia 1,400-point loss, I'm guessing. Having "champ + computer rating" is going to give the same outcome as the humans 85% of the time, in my wild-guess opinion. Just make it objective. LSU, Ohio State, and Clemson -- all agree on. Cases can be made for Oklahoma or Oregon -- just like in March cases can be made between some 19-13 Georgia team and a 23-5 UTEP team or whatever. Just let the computers decide (computers programmed by humans). Agree on the objective criteria ahead of time.

Stray Gator
12-08-2019, 03:46 PM
At least you have been consistent with your Dixie bias. I like LSU and agree that they pass the eye test. So does Clemson, but they are untested this year.

OSU is the first team in the CFP era to win 9 conference games and their conference championship. And they didn't schedule an FBS team, not UNCC and Wofford.

The computers LOVE OSU. Here's something different than the eye test to chew on...

Current Sagarin-PREDICTOR ratings:

Ohio State [#1, 106.22]
Clemson [#2, 101.25]
LSU [#4, 98.27]
Oklahoma [#6, 92.81]

Projected pointspreads for the possible combinations of those teams are:

OSU -5 vs Clemson
OSU -8 vs LSU
OSU -13 vs Oklahoma
Clemson -3 vs LSU
Clemson -8 vs Oklahoma
LSU -5 vs Oklahoma

I hope the Buckeyes burst your bubble like they did in the first CFP.

This is more than faintly reminiscent to me of the 2006 season, when an Ohio State team, led by their Heisman Trophy-winning QB Troy Smith and All-Universe receiver Ted Ginn, Jr., was widely proclaimed by the overwhelming majority of media experts as one of the most fearsome teams in college football history, even capable of competing with NFL teams. When Kirk Herbstreit's pleas for a rematch of the supposed "Game of the Century" with Michigan failed, he led a chorus of commentators in dismissing Florida's chances of competing with the superior Buckeyes -- I think tOSU was favored by 8 in that game, too -- as silly nonsense. The common refrain was that the Gators "weren't worthy of being in the title game," and "weren't good enough to be on the same field with the Buckeyes" -- taunts that provided the lead for ESPN's postgame article:

https://www.espn.com/college-football/recap?gameId=270080194

I recognize and respect that Ohio State is one of the best teams in college football this season. The Buckeyes deserve to be in the playoff, and it would certainly not surprise me if they win it all. But forgive me if I regard the familiar assertion that they are more than a touchdown better than the champions of the SEC with some degree of skepticism.

Faison1
12-08-2019, 03:47 PM
The Committee got it exactly right, IMO.

No doubt about it....luckily, all the chips fell in the right direction yesterday.

I much prefer having 4 conference champs representing rather than two teams from one conference.

Steven43
12-08-2019, 03:55 PM
I recognize and respect that Ohio State is one of the best teams in college football this season. The Buckeyes deserve to be in the playoff, and it would certainly not surprise me if they win it all. But forgive me if I regard the familiar assertion that they are more than a touchdown better than the champions of the SEC with some degree of skepticism.

To which “familiar assertion” that Ohio State is more than a touchdown better than LSU are you referring? Please explain, thanks.

Indoor66
12-08-2019, 03:58 PM
Wait...what “familiar assertion” that Ohio State is more than a touchdown better than LSU? Who is currently saying that?

All the people who believe that the big ten IS what the big ten believes it is.

Reilly
12-08-2019, 03:58 PM
Neat content from Brett McMurphy on Twitter:

All-time appearances in
@CFBPlayoff
6-year history

Alabama 5 (6-3, 2 titles)
Clemson 5 (5-2, 2 titles)
Oklahoma 4 (0-3)
Ohio State 3 (2-1, 1 title)
Georgia 1 (1-1)
Oregon 1 (1-1)
LSU 1 (0-0)
Florida State 1 (0-1)
Michigan State 1 (0-1)
Notre Dame 1 (0-1)
Washington 1 (0-1)

Stray Gator
12-08-2019, 04:12 PM
To which “familiar assertion” that Ohio State is more than a touchdown better than LSU are you referring? Please explain, thanks.

I thought it would be obvious from my post, but the prediction that an Ohio State football team is more than a touchdown better than an SEC champion is a "familiar assertion" to me because I, and other Gator fans, heard it almost universally from media commentators -- and incessantly from the legions of Buckeye fans in Glendale -- leading up to the 2006 BCS Championship Game.

SouthernDukie
12-08-2019, 04:22 PM
I’ll be rooting for Clemson to put a beat down on the Buckeyes. Go ACC!

Thank you, Bob. Me too!

SouthernDukie
12-08-2019, 04:28 PM
I thought it would be obvious from my post, but the prediction that an Ohio State football team is more than a touchdown better than an SEC champion is a "familiar assertion" to me because I, and other Gator fans, heard it almost universally from media commentators -- and incessantly from the legions of Buckeye fans in Glendale -- leading up to the 2006 BCS Championship Game.

Bingo. I remember that entire lead up well. The Big Ten and its fans always think they are superior.

Devil in the Blue Dress
12-08-2019, 04:33 PM
All things considered, the Committee got it right this time.

BTW While watching the playoff games, you may see Kenny Anunike on tOSU sidelines (graduate assistant).

I'm happy for Jalen Hurts to be in this playoff. He's worked hard to get where he is.

Joe Burrow (aka Joe Burreaux) has had a most remarkable year. His story reminds me of Daniel Jones with even more talent. The kid was told repeatedly he wasn't good enough and got few offers. His time at tOSU was spent always behind somebody else. Fast forward to today when he's mastered the same offensive system Drew Brees and the Saints use and plays it masterfully. He's even more athletic than Daniel and already "throws players open." The other teams are very good and have many outstanding players, but they don't have Joe Burrow. Will Joe's talent and leadership lift the Bayou Bengals to the the championship? A little voodoo says yes.

SouthernDukie
12-08-2019, 04:41 PM
All things considered, the Committee got it right this time.

BTW While watching the playoff games, you may see Kenny Anunike on tOSU sidelines (graduate assistant).

I'm happy for Jalen Hurts to be in this playoff. He's worked hard to get where he is.

Joe Burrow (aka Joe Burreaux) has had a most remarkable year. His story reminds me of Daniel Jones with even more talent. The kid was told repeatedly he wasn't good enough and got few offers. His time at tOSU was spent always behind somebody else. Fast forward to today when he's mastered the same offensive system Drew Brees and the Saints use and plays it masterfully. He's even more athletic than Daniel and already "throws players open." The other teams are very good and have many outstanding players, but they don't have Joe Burrow. Will Joe's talent and leadership lift the Bayou Bengals to the the championship? A little voodoo says yes.

If I had to put money on it, LSU would get the majority of my chips. But I’ll be rooting for the ACC rep, Clemson.

Bob Green
12-08-2019, 05:08 PM
Clemson opens as a 2 points favorite over Ohio State.

Hancock 4 Duke
12-08-2019, 05:46 PM
As a Clemson student, I'd like to see you guys' unbiased opinions on how that game will go. I'm stuck between being absolutely confident and extremely nervous; it depends on the amount of Clemson propaganda I see on Twitter at any given moment.

Also, calling Klemnop

SouthernDukie
12-08-2019, 05:48 PM
As a Clemson student, I'd like to see you guys' unbiased opinions on how that game will go. I'm stuck between being absolutely confident and extremely nervous; it depends on the amount of Clemson propaganda I see on Twitter at any given moment.

Also, calling Klemnop

Don't worry. Clemson wins against an over-hyped and over-confident OSU.

Devil in the Blue Dress
12-08-2019, 06:07 PM
As a Clemson student, I'd like to see you guys' unbiased opinions on how that game will go. I'm stuck between being absolutely confident and extremely nervous; it depends on the amount of Clemson propaganda I see on Twitter at any given moment.

Also, calling Klemnop

I expect Clemson to roll and leave tOSU in the review mirror.

OldPhiKap
12-08-2019, 06:21 PM
As a Clemson student, I'd like to see you guys' unbiased opinions on how that game will go. I'm stuck between being absolutely confident and extremely nervous; it depends on the amount of Clemson propaganda I see on Twitter at any given moment.

Also, calling Klemnop


Don't worry. Clemson wins against an over-hyped and over-confident OSU.


I expect Clemson to roll and leave tOSU in the review mirror.

I think more of tOSU than my esteemed kin quoted above. I think it will be a close game and will come down to a squeaker. Could go either way.

Reilly
12-08-2019, 07:19 PM
McMurphy's record this year (from Twitter):

Final bowl projection numbers for those scoring at home (or bored to death): correctly projected 59 of 78 teams in correct bowl & exact matchup in 27 of 39 bowls, both career highs

DUKIE V(A)
12-08-2019, 07:25 PM
I will be rooting for LSU as the lesser of four evils. I predict Clemson will get it done over LSU in the final.

luvdahops
12-08-2019, 07:31 PM
I think more of tOSU than my esteemed kin quoted above. I think it will be a close game and will come down to a squeaker. Could go either way.

Buckeyes have comparable talent and have played a considerably tougher schedule, especially over the last month or so, which suggests they will come in more battle tested. But while Ryan Day has certainly impressed in his first full year as a head coach, Dabo and staff's experience in playoffs is a clear advantage for Clemson. On balance, I see this game as a genuine toss-up, and have no issue with the Tigers as a slight favorite in the opening lines from Vegas.

AGDukesky
12-08-2019, 07:34 PM
I think more of tOSU than my esteemed kin quoted above. I think it will be a close game and will come down to a squeaker. Could go either way.

Agreed. Clemson looks to be peaking but Ohio State is really talented and explosive. I surprised Clemson is favored.

OldPhiKap
12-08-2019, 07:40 PM
Bowl match-ups beyond the top 4 don’t really excite me. Wisconsin-Oregon in the Rose Bowl looks good, maybe Michigan-Alabama in the Citrus. No faith in Baylor as a team, or UGA showing up, in the Sugar Bowl. Looks like a pretty non-compelling slate of games.

(Not sure if we are having a separate bowl thread, so posting this here).

HereBeforeCoachK
12-08-2019, 07:45 PM
I will be rooting for LSU as the lesser of four evils. I predict Clemson will get it done over LSU in the final.

Funny, I would think LSU is the most evil of the 4, possible exception being Oklahoma.

CrazyNotCrazie
12-08-2019, 07:47 PM
Bowl match-ups beyond the top 4 don’t really excite me. Wisconsin-Oregon in the Rose Bowl looks good, maybe Michigan-Alabama in the Citrus. No faith in Baylor as a team, or UGA showing up, in the Sugar Bowl. Looks like a pretty non-compelling slate of games.

(Not sure if we are having a separate bowl thread, so posting this here).

Generally agree. Minnesota-Auburn could also be fun. Interesting to go through the list and see all of the new sponsors. The "Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl?" Because nothing says El Paso like Frosted Flakes...

OldPhiKap
12-08-2019, 07:50 PM
Generally agree. Minnesota-Auburn could also be fun.

Yeah, thought about that game too, although I think Auburn is opening as a touchdown favorite.

devilsadvocate85
12-08-2019, 08:32 PM
No doubt about it...luckily, all the chips fell in the right direction yesterday.

I much prefer having 4 conference champs representing rather than two teams from one conference.

You have the Gamecocks to thanks for that.

SouthernDukie
12-08-2019, 08:52 PM
Funny, I would think LSU is the most evil of the 4, possible exception being Oklahoma.

Oh my, no. The order is clear. From most evil to least it’s OSU, Oklahoma, LSU and then Clemson. Do not be deceived in this.

WakeDevil
12-09-2019, 12:15 AM
How many Alabama players will skip this "meaningless" game?

elvis14
12-09-2019, 10:28 AM
I’ll be rooting for Clemson to put a beat down on the Buckeyes. Go ACC!

Well said, Bob. I'll be rooting for Clemson as well. Almost losing the the Cheating [redacted] sons of [redacted] from Chapel Hill earlier in the season was all the wake up call Clemson needed. Since then they have been crushing everyone in their way. Dabo has been playing lots of players in the 3rd and 4th quarters as well building depth to get the entire team playoff ready. They are ready.


As a Clemson student, I'd like to see you guys' unbiased opinions on how that game will go. I'm stuck between being absolutely confident and extremely nervous; it depends on the amount of Clemson propaganda I see on Twitter at any given moment.

Also, calling Klemnop

Here's my prediction. Clemson is going to kick the !@#$% out of OSU just like they have the last two times they played them. Clemson fooled me last year when I thought I they would probably lose to Alabama. Nope, they crushed them. I'm not getting fooled by Dabo again!

(note, I may not be completely unbiased)

HereBeforeCoachK
12-09-2019, 11:14 AM
As a Clemson student, I'd like to see you guys' unbiased opinions on how that game will go. I'm stuck between being absolutely confident and extremely nervous; it depends on the amount of Clemson propaganda I see on Twitter at any given moment.

Also, calling Klemnop

I would not be as confident as the other posters are here who think Clemson will rout. I do think Clemson will win, however. I want Clemson to win...for the ACC, and I like Dabo. But I'd not be the ranch on it

And oh, Clemson will be pulling for Duke deep in the NCAAT in hoops if we get that far, right? (is sarc tag needed)

Reilly
12-09-2019, 06:49 PM
Ranking the 39 bowl games: https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/ranking-all-2019-college-football-bowl-games-39-1-fiesta-bowl-rematch-intriguing-sun-bowl/?ftag=SPM-16-10abi8e

Stray Gator
12-09-2019, 07:03 PM
McMurphy's record this year (from Twitter):

Final bowl projection numbers for those scoring at home (or bored to death): correctly projected 59 of 78 teams in correct bowl & exact matchup in 27 of 39 bowls, both career highs

My question is, when did he make those projections? As I recall, this is the same expert prognosticator who forecast at mid-season that Duke would be playing Florida in a bowl game. If these projections were made within the last two weeks, I'm no more impressed than I am each March when ESPN's "bracketology" wizard Joe Lunardi brilliantly scores over 90% in predicting the 68-team field at about the same time as the conference tournaments have been played -- by which point virtually any reasonably informed fan could do as well.

Reilly
12-09-2019, 07:48 PM
My question is, when did he make those projections? As I recall, this is the same expert prognosticator who forecast at mid-season that Duke would be playing Florida in a bowl game. If these projections were made within the last two weeks, I'm no more impressed than I am each March when ESPN's "bracketology" wizard Joe Lunardi brilliantly scores over 90% in predicting the 68-team field at about the same time as the conference tournaments have been played -- by which point virtually any reasonably informed fan could do as well.

I agree with you 100% that picking 90+% in predicting the 68-team field on Selection Sunday is nothing impressive and that an informed fan could do as well. I think correctly slotting 27 of 39 bowl games with both teams is worlds' more impressive given all the moving parts, and I think it's proven true by the picks that were all over the map based on the few I posted yesterday. That said, his record is not just speculation but due, I'm guessing, to reporting and sources -- he's a terrific reporter (ask Jim Leavitt and Urban Meyer). As for the Florida prediction, the gripe I recall was that there was no way a top 10-ish SEC team would fall out of the NY6 bowls ... and 'Bama's placement shows there is a way, and why the Florida (or, insert any other top SEC program) prognostication was correct in the main.

dukelifer
12-09-2019, 08:10 PM
I would not be as confident as the other posters are here who think Clemson will rout. I do think Clemson will win, however. I want Clemson to win...for the ACC, and I like Dabo. But I'd not be the ranch on it

And oh, Clemson will be pulling for Duke deep in the NCAAT in hoops if we get that far, right? (is sarc tag needed)

The ACC has revenue sharing and a Clemson win helps Duke in a big way. Definitely pulling for Clemson.

OldPhiKap
12-09-2019, 08:14 PM
The ACC has revenue sharing and a Clemson win helps Duke in a big way. Definitely pulling for Clemson.

Works for me!

DukieInKansas
12-09-2019, 08:25 PM
I would not be as confident as the other posters are here who think Clemson will rout. I do think Clemson will win, however. I want Clemson to win...for the ACC, and I like Dabo. But I'd not be the ranch on it

And oh, Clemson will be pulling for Duke deep in the NCAAT in hoops if we get that far, right? (is sarc tag needed)

I agree with the above. I will vary on my confidence in a Clemson win until the final seconds tick off the clock - even if they are ahead by 14+. In addition to Dabo, I really like their Director of Applied Science. (Actually, I love the guy ;) but that is an aunt's prerogative!)

If the Director of Applied Science knows what's good for him, he will be pulling for Duke. Although, I'm not sure what he would do if we play Penn State or KU. I've written him out of the will before and can threaten to do it again. However, I don't think he will miss the $20. :D

Stray Gator
12-09-2019, 09:29 PM
I agree with you 100% that picking 90+% in predicting the 68-team field on Selection Sunday is nothing impressive and that an informed fan could do as well. I think correctly slotting 27 of 39 bowl games with both teams is worlds' more impressive given all the moving parts, and I think it's proven true by the picks that were all over the map based on the few I posted yesterday. That said, his record is not just speculation but due, I'm guessing, to reporting and sources -- he's a terrific reporter (ask Jim Leavitt and Urban Meyer). As for the Florida prediction, the gripe I recall was that there was no way a top 10-ish SEC team would fall out of the NY6 bowls ... and 'Bama's placement shows there is a way, and why the Florida (or, insert any other top SEC program) prognostication was correct in the main.

Actually, because of conference tie-ins and the traditional preference not to have bowls feature the same team in successive years, I believe many if not most of the bowl matchups were already correctly slotted by other media sources more than a week ago.

As for the earlier debate regarding Florida's likely bowl destination, McMurphy's forecast that Florida would fall to the Belk Bowl -- on the theory that it would be the fifth best SEC team -- proved wildly erroneous. As it turns out, there are 5 SEC teams ranked in the final AP Top 10. (In the coaches' poll, only three are in the Top 10, with Auburn and Alabama ranked 12th and 13th, respectively.) Three of those SEC teams (LSU, Georgia, and Florida) are in NY6 bowls, while Alabama is in the Citrus and Auburn is in the Outback. While the Citrus and Outback are not NY6 bowls, both are played on New Year's Day, and both are, I think most people would acknowledge, more prestigious than the Belk Bowl.

Reilly
12-09-2019, 10:19 PM
Final SRS of top SEC teams - https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2019-ratings.html

2 - lsu
4 - bama
9 - uga
11 - auburn
14 - uf

Final espn fpi rank of top SEC teams - http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings

3 - lsu
4 - bama
5 - uga
6 - auburn
8 - uf

Final AP rank of top SEC teams - https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2019-polls.html#all_ap

1 - lsu
5 - uga
6 - uf
9 - bama
9 - auburn

Final CFP rank - https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2019-polls.html#all_ap

1 - lsu
5 - uga
9 - uf
12 - auburn
13 - alabama

There are five stellar SEC teams. Three of five made the CFP + NY6 ... and two did not. In the computer polls, UF is ranked 5/5 in each among the stellar SEC teams. In the human polls, UF is ranked 3/5 among the stellar SEC teams. Good for them, UF made the upper cut. Predicting that UF would not make that rarified air -- when in fact two stellar teams did get left out of the CFP + NY6 cohort; and when computer metrics show UF to be 5/5 of the stellar SEC teams -- is not what I'd call wildly inaccurate. That is not to say UF is a bad team or undeserving -- just a realization that there are many stellar teams in the SEC, and only so many Sugar and Orange bowls.

Stray Gator
12-10-2019, 12:06 AM
. . . Predicting that UF would not make that rarified air -- when in fact two stellar teams did get left out of the CFP + NY6 cohort; and when computer metrics show UF to be 5/5 of the stellar SEC teams -- is not what I'd call wildly inaccurate. That is not to say UF is a bad team or undeserving -- just a realization that there are many stellar teams in the SEC, and only so many Sugar and Orange bowls.

The original discussion centered on the prediction by McMurphy that Florida, as the fifth-best SEC team, would fall below the NY6 and below the Citrus Bowl all the way down to one of the mid-to-low level "pool of six" bowls. In defending his forecast against the suggestion that an SEC team finishing in the Top 10 would not drop lower than the Citrus Bowl or Outback Bowl, you stated that "if you're 5th or 6th in the SEC, it's hello Charlotte or Nashville or Jacksonville." But as we now know, none of the top five teams in the SEC fell that far.

For practical purposes, the only poll that really matters at this point is the final rankings of the College Football Playoff Committee. In that list, three SEC teams finished in the Top 10, and each of them is in a NY6 bowl. Auburn and Alabama finished outside the CFP Top 10, yet they are playing in the Citrus Bowl and the Outback Bowl -- both of which are played on New Year's Day, and both of which are, I submit, generally regarded as more prestigious than the Belk Bowl or the Music City Bowl or the Gator Bowl.

If you want to rely on computer rankings to bolster your opinion that McMurphy's midseason prediction of Florida vs. Duke in the Belk Bowl did not prove to be wildly inaccurate, then there's nothing further I can offer that will persuade you otherwise. But the fact remains that no SEC team in the Top 10 fell to the Belk Bowl or another bowl of comparable quality.

HereBeforeCoachK
12-10-2019, 05:54 AM
The ACC has revenue sharing and a Clemson win helps Duke in a big way. Definitely pulling for Clemson.

Ah, well that must explain why all the ACC fans always pull for Duke so hard deep in the NCAAT.......(is sarc tag even needed?)

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
12-10-2019, 05:56 AM
My question is, when did he make those projections? As I recall, this is the same expert prognosticator who forecast at mid-season that Duke would be playing Florida in a bowl game. If these projections were made within the last two weeks, I'm no more impressed than I am each March when ESPN's "bracketology" wizard Joe Lunardi brilliantly scores over 90% in predicting the 68-team field at about the same time as the conference tournaments have been played -- by which point virtually any reasonably informed fan could do as well.

Everyone goes bananas over Joey Brackets. It always inspires at least one rageful tirade from me. People act like because he is so accurate minutes before the selection committee releases their results, there is value to his earlier projections.

If I had the ability to go outside and tell you with supreme accuracy what the weather would be in thirty seconds, would you subscribe to my 45 day forecast?

Reilly
12-10-2019, 06:43 AM
The original discussion centered on the prediction by McMurphy that Florida, as the fifth-best SEC team, would fall below the NY6 and below the Citrus Bowl all the way down to one of the mid-to-low level "pool of six" bowls. In defending his forecast against the suggestion that an SEC team finishing in the Top 10 would not drop lower than the Citrus Bowl or Outback Bowl, you stated that "if you're 5th or 6th in the SEC, it's hello Charlotte or Nashville or Jacksonville." But as we now know, none of the top five teams in the SEC fell that far.

For practical purposes, the only poll that really matters at this point is the final rankings of the College Football Playoff Committee. In that list, three SEC teams finished in the Top 10, and each of them is in a NY6 bowl. Auburn and Alabama finished outside the CFP Top 10, yet they are playing in the Citrus Bowl and the Outback Bowl -- both of which are played on New Year's Day, and both of which are, I submit, generally regarded as more prestigious than the Belk Bowl or the Music City Bowl or the Gator Bowl.

If you want to rely on computer rankings to bolster your opinion that McMurphy's midseason prediction of Florida vs. Duke in the Belk Bowl did not prove to be wildly inaccurate, then there's nothing further I can offer that will persuade you otherwise. But the fact remains that no SEC team in the Top 10 fell to the Belk Bowl or another bowl of comparable quality.

I believe the SEC has its list of bowl groupings on its conference page linked in that earlier discussion. You are making qualitative distinctions not listed there — in effect moving the goalposts of the discussion. Two terrific SEC teams in fact fell down to that lower tier — and that was my point throughout. UF was not one of those two stellar teams that fell out of the marquee tier, as it turned out. They easily could’ve been.

uh_no
12-10-2019, 09:27 AM
Ah, well that must explain why all the ACC fans always pull for Duke so hard deep in the NCAAT....(is sarc tag even needed?)

well, we also don't expect such fans to have those duke smarts to realize that duke winning is beneficial to them...

budwom
12-10-2019, 11:07 AM
Predictions yeah...still waiting on my tickets to the duke - Nebraska bowl game

Stray Gator
12-10-2019, 11:23 AM
I believe the SEC has its list of bowl groupings on its conference page linked in that earlier discussion. You are making qualitative distinctions not listed there — in effect moving the goalposts of the discussion. Two terrific SEC teams in fact fell down to that lower tier — and that was my point throughout. UF was not one of those two stellar teams that fell out of the marquee tier, as it turned out. They easily could’ve been.

Actually, I believe you're the one who's "moving the goalposts" by now characterizing any bowl below a NY6 bowl as "lower tier" or "out of the marquee tier." The whole debate started when you posted Brett McMurphy's mid-season prediction that Florida would play against Duke in the Belk Bowl. When another poster expressed skepticism that a 9 or 10-win Florida team would land in the Belk Bowl, you stated:

It seems the Belk is one of the SEC's "pool of six" ... first comes the CFP, then maybe a NY6 bowl, then Citrus ... then there are six ostensibly the same level and Belk is in there. I trust McMurphy more than any other CFB writer to know what might transpire. 'Bama, LSU, Georgia, and Auburn all may be better than UF, so UF would fall into the "pool of six"

So you acknowledged then that the Citrus Bowl, at least, is not on the same level with the Belk Bowl. But now you're classifying the Citrus Bowl as well as the Outback Bowl among the "lower tier" by declaring that both Auburn and Alabama "fell down to that lower tier." (And frankly, I doubt that you'll find many who would agree that the Outback Bowl is, in terms of tradition, prestige, and payout, on the same level with the Belk Bowl, despite being listed as one of the SEC's "pool of six" bowls.)

Finally, I'll bring this back to the original point by noting that McMurphy's prediction of Florida vs. Duke in the Belk Bowl proved to be erroneous by a considerable margin. And your observation that Florida "easily could've been" relegated to the lower tier Belk Bowl does nothing, in my opinion, to lend credence to his prediction, because the same rationalization can be employed to suggest that any erroneous prediction "could have been" accurate if the events or circumstances had evolved differently.

JasonEvans
12-10-2019, 11:31 AM
If I had the ability to go outside and tell you with supreme accuracy what the weather would be in thirty seconds, would you subscribe to my 45 day forecast?

This is the best description of Joey Brackets prognosticating ability that I have ever seen!! Sporks for you, sir!

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
12-10-2019, 12:05 PM
This is the best description of Joey Brackets prognosticating ability that I have ever seen!! Sporks for you, sir!

I humbly accept your sporkz.

I've called Joey Brackets a charlatan for years. Anyone cam say ANYTHING in December and say "if the brackets were set today, they would look like this." What a crock. The fact that he has made a career out of it is just absurd.

dukelifer
12-10-2019, 12:53 PM
Ah, well that must explain why all the ACC fans always pull for Duke so hard deep in the NCAAT...(is sarc tag even needed?)

Well I just learned that only getting to the final 4 generates the cash for the conference (6M or so), the championship does not pay out any more- so feel free to root against Clemson- they have already helped Duke ;)

AustinDevil
12-10-2019, 02:22 PM
Well I just learned that only getting to the final 4 generates the cash for the conference (6M or so), the championship does not pay out any more- so feel free to root against Clemson- they have already helped Duke ;)

This is pretty indirect, but bad playoff performances definitely color future committee decisions; they make that team and its conference look weaker and discredit them the next time. Oklahoma (and the Big XII) being 0-3 in the semis over the years matters. The Big Ten losing its two most recent semis by a combined 69-0 matters.

So feel free to keep rooting for Clemson, because apart from them, the ACC is no better than the sixth best college football conference.

Bob Green
12-10-2019, 03:59 PM
So feel free to keep rooting for Clemson, because apart from them, the ACC is no better than the sixth best college football conference.

It is extremely difficult to compare the conferences to determine which one is better than the other. The first step is defining best. Is it best top to bottom? Is best most Top 25 teams? So on and so forth...

IMO, the SEC is the best with the Big Ten second. The picture gets fuzzy after those two. I will not concede the ACC in comparisons to Big12, PAC12 or American Conference. Those conferences might very well be better than the ACC but it isn’t unquestionable, especially the American.

AustinDevil
12-10-2019, 04:30 PM
It is extremely difficult to compare the conferences to determine which one is better than the other. The first step is defining best. Is it best top to bottom? Is best most Top 25 teams? So on and so forth...

IMO, the SEC is the best with the Big Ten second. The picture gets fuzzy after those two. I will not concede the ACC in comparisons to Big12, PAC12 or American Conference. Those conferences might very well be better than the ACC but it isn’t unquestionable, especially the American.

Yes, it is difficult and subject to debate. The median Sagarin rating for each conference is almost identical, and indeed is slightly higher for the ACC-C (Louisville's 71.29 barely beats the average between the AAC's Tulane and Temple of 69.86). But Top 25 teams is a slam dunk (#17 Memphis versus a blank for the ACC-C), as are Top 30 (AAC adds #27 UCF and #29 Navy; ACC-C gets its first team with #30 UVa) and Top 40 (AAC adds #32 Cincinnati and #34 SMU, ACC-C adds no one).

The very bottom of the AAC is terrible, but by far the worst team is UConn, who (a) have already played their last football game in the AAC and (b) are terrible in significant part because their administration, in going to the Big East next year with no plan whatsoever for football, has communicated to that team that they do not matter and will be sacrificed on the altar of hoops.

cspan37421
12-10-2019, 04:43 PM
I've called Joey Brackets a charlatan for years. Anyone cam say ANYTHING in December and say "if the brackets were set today, they would look like this." What a crock. The fact that he has made a career out of it is just absurd.

Well, he also got a career boost from his appearance in the Lego Movie.

https://twitter.com/markennis/status/571872535513456643

Bob Green
12-28-2019, 03:38 PM
About 30 minutes until kickoff in the first semifinal game between #1 LSU and #4 Oklahoma. I will be cheering hard for Oklahoma to pull off the upset.

SouthernDukie
12-28-2019, 03:55 PM
About 30 minutes until kickoff in the first semifinal game between #1 LSU and #4 Oklahoma. I will be cheering hard for Oklahoma to pull off the upset.

Were the other game already over and I knew that Clemson were in I’d be with you. But I sure don’t want OSU winning tonight and avoid having to play LSU for a title. If the Buckeyes are going to win the whole thing [shudder to think] then I want them going through two Tigers.

Bob Green
12-28-2019, 04:02 PM
Were the other game already over and I knew that Clemson were in I’d be with you. But I sure don’t want OSU winning tonight and avoid having to play LSU for a title. If the Buckeyes are going to win the whole thing [shudder to think] then I want them going through two Tigers.

Jalen Hurts handled his Alabama situation with class so I want to see him get an opportunity to compete for the National Championship. If his opportunity is against Clemson, conference loyalty will take precedence.

SouthernDukie
12-28-2019, 04:06 PM
Jalen Hurts handled his Alabama situation with class so I want to see him get an opportunity to compete for the National Championship. If his opportunity is against Clemson, conference loyalty will take precedence.

I agree. And I’m fine with either Clemson, LSU or OK winning. But I want OSU going through the toughest path possible if they are to win it all. And that’s Clemson/LSU, not Clemson/OK.

Bob Green
12-28-2019, 04:12 PM
I agree. And I’m fine with either Clemson, LSU or OK winning. But I want OSU going through the toughest path possible if they are to win it all. And that’s Clemson/LSU, not Clemson/OK.

But if Oklahoma beats LSU, they are the better team...

I’m just joking around, kinda/sorta.

SouthernDukie
12-28-2019, 04:16 PM
But if Oklahoma beats LSU, they are the better team...

I’m just joking around, kinda/sorta.

Wish I believed that. ;)

Bob Green
12-28-2019, 04:18 PM
LSU and Oklahoma are both screwed, the refs are from the ACC. ;)

SouthernDukie
12-28-2019, 04:37 PM
Big stop by OK on this 2nd series. Game could of gotten away from them early.

Bob Green
12-28-2019, 04:43 PM
Oklahoma TD set-up by a long pass from Hurts to Lamb. Nice response by the Sooners.

SouthernDukie
12-28-2019, 04:44 PM
Momentum taken right away from LSU. Great drive by OK.

SouthernDukie
12-28-2019, 04:52 PM
Shootout?

Bob Green
12-28-2019, 04:59 PM
LSU and Oklahoma are both screwed, the refs are from the ACC. ;)

OU screwed first. LSU DB tackles OU receiver before ball arrives — no flag.

YmoBeThere
12-28-2019, 05:01 PM
LSU and Oklahoma are both screwed, the refs are from the ACC. ;)

As evidenced by the non-call on the pass interference.

uh_no
12-28-2019, 05:01 PM
OU screwed first. LSU DB tackles OU receiver before ball arrives — no flag.

then screwed 2 plays later when the LSU receiver is out of bounds then runs in and makes a catch.

YmoBeThere
12-28-2019, 05:06 PM
Shootout?
LSU blowout...

LasVegas
12-28-2019, 05:15 PM
then screwed 2 plays later when the LSU receiver is out of bounds then runs in and makes a catch.

He was forced out.....

YmoBeThere
12-28-2019, 05:26 PM
Now, 28-7.

Bob Green
12-28-2019, 05:28 PM
LSU blowout...

Yep. This one is getting out of control already.

tteettimes
12-28-2019, 05:40 PM
C’mon......it’s only the first half..... 😂😂

Devil in the Blue Dress
12-28-2019, 05:41 PM
Folks have underestimated LSU for much of the season. They are very intense today. One factor is a backstory. The daughter-in-law of LSU's OC died in a small plane crash this morning. Carley McCord was a sports reporter well known in Louisiana. She was on the way to this game.