Wait till next year football

[arnie]

Duke football season over next Saturday. Next year we play Middle Tennessee, Elon and Charlotte all at home and ND on the road. At the Pack is our revolving Atlantic opponent.

Any chance of getting to 6 wins with the likely improving Coastal teams or is 4 wins a reasonable goal? I assume Gunnar will be our QB if healthy, just don’t know that much about him and guess any success in O highly dependent on OL and play calling improvement.

[devilish]

Do we play state at home or away? For me, it will be the difference in season tickets again or not.

[arnie]

Do we play state at home or away? For me, it will be the difference in season tickets again or not.

State game is in Carter Finley.

[Troublemaker]

Duke football season over next Saturday. Next year we play Middle Tennessee, Elon and Charlotte all at home and ND on the road. At the Pack is our revolving Atlantic opponent.

Any chance of getting to 6 wins with the likely improving Coastal teams or is 4 wins a reasonable goal? I assume Gunnar will be our QB if healthy, just don’t know that much about him and guess any success in O highly dependent on OL and play calling improvement.

I don't follow football all that closely, so could someone answer this for me? Are we 100% out of the bowl picture, or is it still technically possible to beat Miami for 5 wins and then land a bowl game using our outstanding graduation rates?

Thanks!

[chrishoke]

I don't follow football all that closely, so could someone answer this for me? Are we 100% out of the bowl picture, or is it still technically possible to beat Miami for 5 wins and then land a bowl game using our outstanding graduation rates?

Thanks!

The latter.

[YmoBeThere]

I don't follow football all that closely, so could someone answer this for me? Are we 100% out of the bowl picture, or is it still technically possible to beat Miami for 5 wins and then land a bowl game using our outstanding graduation rates?

Thanks!


The latter.


Many are expecting that there will be enough bowl eligible teams such that they won't need to fill any spots based on APR.

One site:

https://collegefootballnews.com/2019/11/bowl-projections-college-football-playoff-predictions-after-week-13

"As we see it right now, there will be exactly enough bowl eligible teams for the slots – there won’t be any need to dive into the APR tie-breaker (if you don’t know what that is, don’t worry about it for now)."

[Bob Green]

I assume Gunnar will be our QB if healthy, just don’t know that much about him and guess any success in O highly dependent on OL and play calling improvement.

QB is a major unknown next season!

Holmberg gained zero experience this season due to injury. There is an incoming freshman, Luca Diamont, from Los Angeles who, obviously, will have no experience. Coach Cutcliffe has not opted to give Katrenick significant playing time this year so he appears not to be a viable option.

Playing an inexperienced QB is not a formula for success. The situation is exacerbated by an inability to run the football. A strong running game is an inexperienced QB’s best friend. Duke cannot run the ball.

Perhaps Coach Cutcliffe will search the transfer market but that is something he has shown a reluctance to do.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Duke football season over next Saturday. Next year we play Middle Tennessee, Elon and Charlotte all at home and ND on the road. At the Pack is our revolving Atlantic opponent.

Any chance of getting to 6 wins with the likely improving Coastal teams or is 4 wins a reasonable goal? I assume Gunnar will be our QB if healthy, just don’t know that much about him and guess any success in O highly dependent on OL and play calling improvement.
There is always a chance. A greater chance if someone other than Zac Roper is calling the plays.

[hallcity]

Do we play state at home or away? For me, it will be the difference in season tickets again or not.

At NCSU.

Duke has made some terrible decisions about its football program but few more foolish than turning down NCSU on an annual home and home nonconference series. The reason given was that since Duke is a national school, it needs a national schedule. The school may be national but the football program is dying from lack of fan support. We desperately need games with NCSU, ECU, App State or anyone else who helps sell tickets.

We also need to knock off the excessive security, sell beer at games and do ANYTHING else anyone can think of to encourage attendance.

No one can recruit well when the stands at WW are as empty as they are and no one can win without good recruiting.

In the end, Duke’s football problem isn’t so much its coaches or its players; it’s lack of fan support. Find a way to fix that and one way or another, the wins will come.

[arnie]

At NCSU.

Duke has made some terrible decisions about its football program but few more foolish than turning down NCSU on an annual home and home nonconference series. The reason given was that since Duke is a national school, it needs a national schedule. The school may be national but the football program is dying from lack of fan support. We desperately need games with NCSU, ECU, App State or anyone else who helps sell tickets.

We also need to knock off the excessive security, sell beer at games and do ANYTHING else anyone can think of to encourage attendance.

No one can recruit well when the stands at WW are as empty as they are and no one can win without good recruiting.

In the end, Duke’s football problem isn’t so much its coaches or its players; it’s lack of fan support. Find a way to fix that and one way or another, the wins will come.

And yet next years OOC schedule is Elon, Charlotte and Mid Tennessee (ND is mandated). Not exactly National and sounds like Duke Admin talking out both sides of proverbial mouth. I’ve posted before in agreement, games against the three you mentioned would be fantastic and provide excitement to game days. Can’t blame the above on Alleva.

[CameronBornAndBred]

And yet next years OOC schedule is Elon, Charlotte and Mid Tennessee (ND is mandated). Not exactly National and sounds like Duke Admin talking out both sides of proverbial mouth. I’ve posted before in agreement, games against the three you mentioned would be fantastic and provide excitement to game days. Can’t blame the above on Alleva.

FWIW, Charlotte does not suck, and I could see us losing that game.

[budwom]

And yet next years OOC schedule is Elon, Charlotte and Mid Tennessee (ND is mandated). Not exactly National and sounds like Duke Admin talking out both sides of proverbial mouth. I’ve posted before in agreement, games against the three you mentioned would be fantastic and provide excitement to game days. Can’t blame the above on Alleva.

Before this year, Duke and Cut were pretty savvy in scheduling highly winnable out of conference games, usually 3-4 of them/year. That has often allowed us to win only three conference games and still go to a bowl...e.g. 2017 and 2018.
Cut emphasizes the importance of going to a bowl for both recruiting purposes, and for the extra weeks of practice it provides.

So OK, replace Elon or Charlotte with some more illustrious opponents, but do understand that it will almost certainly decrease our chances of a bowl.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Duke has made some terrible decisions about its football program but few more foolish than turning down NCSU on an annual home and home nonconference series. The reason given was that since Duke is a national school, it needs a national schedule. The school may be national but the football program is dying from lack of fan support. We desperately need games with NCSU, ECU, App State or anyone else who helps sell tickets.

We also need to knock off the excessive security, sell beer at games and do ANYTHING else anyone can think of to encourage attendance.

No one can recruit well when the stands at WW are as empty as they are and no one can win without good recruiting.

In the end, Duke’s football problem isn’t so much its coaches or its players; it’s lack of fan support. Find a way to fix that and one way or another, the wins will come.

Agree with all of this above....and I'm thinking that our Alabama game did precious little for recruiting. Middle Tennesse? We'll see. All I know is the best atmosphere in Wade in many a year was probably the NCSU game in 2013. Of course, Devon Edwards had a lot to do with that, but the stadium, from all the angles I saw, was packed....you can sell that atmosphere to recruits.

[BlueDevil16]

Know Cut hasn’t gone after grad transfers too much but with the fall in recruiting we need to start going after them again.

[BlueDevil16]

Agree with all of this above...and I'm thinking that our Alabama game did precious little for recruiting. Middle Tennesse? We'll see. All I know is the best atmosphere in Wade in many a year was probably the NCSU game in 2013. Of course, Devon Edwards had a lot to do with that, but the stadium, from all the angles I saw, was packed...you can sell that atmosphere to recruits.

Bama game was one of the stupidest ideas the program has had. Do you know how much money we got from it or what we did with it?

[dm9e24]

It is getting to the point where you don't enjoy the beatdowns of NC A&T and NCCU and MSTU because we don't back those wins up with any kind of consistency in our own conference. A conference, who by the way, has 2 whole teams in the top 25.

[TKG]

Cynic alert: cut has all the leverage. Kevin White is not going to fire him. Cut is not going to fire assistants and he is not going to dip into the grad transfer market. We need to manage our expectations with 4-8 as a typical season. Cut’s 7, 8 and 10 win seasons were outliers . Just as the awful period of Roof and Franks were outliers. We are a below average to average program.

[OldPhiKap]

Bama game was one of the stupidest ideas the program has had. Do you know how much money we got from it or what we did with it?

It was not a simple scheduled game. It was the Chic-fil-A Kickoff Classic. It is an honor to be asked to play in it, and I cannot see us turning down the chance to play in a nationally-televised game.

Would you really feel better if we had scheduled a cupcake, was now 5-6, and struggling to go play in Detroit again if we beat Miami? ‘Cause I sure as hell did not see many Duke fans there last time we played.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

It was not a simple scheduled game. It was the Chic-fil-A Kickoff Classic. It is an honor to be asked to play in it, and I cannot see us turning down the chance to play in a nationally-televised game.

Would you really feel better if we had scheduled a cupcake, was now 5-6, and struggling to go play in Detroit again if we beat Miami? ‘Cause I sure as hell did not see many Duke fans there last time we played.

Replace the Bama loss with a cupcake win, and the entire season may be different. You can't take one piece out of the puzzle and think the other pieces still fit exactly as they are.

[OldPhiKap]

Replace the Bama loss with a cupcake win, and the entire season may be different. You can't take one piece out of the puzzle and think the other pieces still fit exactly as they are.

We won three straight after that game, including a blow-out win in Blacksburg. We then came within three points against Pitt of winning five straight, blowing out GT after the narrow Pitt loss to get to 4-2. What am I missing that made the opening game somehow impact our future results?

[arnie]

Cynic alert: cut has all the leverage. Kevin White is not going to fire him. Cut is not going to fire assistants and he is not going to dip into the grad transfer market. We need to manage our expectations with 4-8 as a typical season. Cut’s 7, 8 and 10 win seasons were outliers . Just as the awful period of Roof and Franks were outliers. We are a below average to average program.

I can out-cynic you. If White is willing to extend McCallie with all that was happening with women’s b-ball; he’s not gonna make or suggest any changes to football program. There’s no pressure on him or others for any sport to succeed except for the elephant in the room. Obviously he doesn’t want player/coach major embarrassments, but with the ACC payments in place, “minor sports” successes such as football/women’s b-ball are not required.

Now if he pisses off K or screws up with Ks replacement all hell breaks loose.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

We won three straight after that game, including a blow-out win in Blacksburg. We then came within three points against Pitt of winning five straight, blowing out GT after the narrow Pitt loss to get to 4-2. What am I missing that made the opening game somehow impact our future results?

What are you missing? Maybe nothing, but the burden of proof is on you. Or maybe you are missing the very nature of team mentalities and psychology....you think you know what it would have been through Pitt, (and you may be right) - but that's merely your assumption. I'm making no assumption, I'm just stating that teams are a product of their seasons to date, and just like when analyzing a single key play in a game in the first few minutes, you can't take that play out and assume the rest of the game would play out exactly the same. You can't take out one game and assume the season flows the same way.

Perhaps an unbeaten Duke team does not lose to Pitt. Maybe they do. MAYBE.

[OldPhiKap]

What are you missing? Maybe nothing, but the burden of proof is on you. Or maybe you are missing the very nature of team mentalities and psychology...you think you know what it would have been through Pitt, (and you may be right) - but that's merely your assumption. I'm making no assumption, I'm just stating that teams are a product of their seasons to date, and just like when analyzing a single key play in a game in the first few minutes, you can't take that play out and assume the rest of the game would play out exactly the same. You can't take out one game and assume the season flows the same way.

Perhaps an unbeaten Duke team does not lose to Pitt. Maybe they do. MAYBE.

I have to prove your assertion that losing to Alabama in the first game caused us to lose the fifth game by three points?!? That’s absurd.

Show me a single fact supporting your thesis, since you obviously are not making any assumptions. To me, the fact that we won four of our next five is fairly compelling evidence that your theory is pure speculation without factual support.

[fuse]

Cynic alert: cut has all the leverage. Kevin White is not going to fire him. Cut is not going to fire assistants and he is not going to dip into the grad transfer market. We need to manage our expectations with 4-8 as a typical season. Cut’s 7, 8 and 10 win seasons were outliers . Just as the awful period of Roof and Franks were outliers. We are a below average to average program.

The acceptable target ought to be 6-5 with a bad year being 5-6 and missing a bowl while having played competitively in the losses.

Given what the program has accomplished in recent years, the next 2-3 seasons are going to be trying.

[hallcity]

The acceptable target ought to be 6-5 with a bad year being 5-6 and missing a bowl while having played competitively in the losses.

Given what the program has accomplished in recent years, the next 2-3 seasons are going to be trying.

Are you under the impression that the college football schedule is 11 games?

In any case, can you get excited about Duke winning about half of its football games? Will you buy season tickets if that’s all anyone can hope for? How do you sell recruits on such a modest goal?

In my opinion, if that’s all you’re aiming for, you’re pretty much guaranteed to get a lot less. Terry Sanford talked about “outrageous ambitions.” I think that’s what we need to have when it comes to football.

[AtlDuke72]

We won three straight after that game, including a blow-out win in Blacksburg. We then came within three points against Pitt of winning five straight, blowing out GT after the narrow Pitt loss to get to 4-2. What am I missing that made the opening game somehow impact our future results?

Nothing

[TKG]

The acceptable target ought to be 6-5 with a bad year being 5-6 and missing a bowl while having played competitively in the losses.

Given what the program has accomplished in recent years, the next 2-3 seasons are going to be trying.

A small nit, but we play 12 regular season games. So is the acceptable target 6-6? If so, then we are an average program that plays in a bowl season that amounts to a participation trophy.

[fuse]

Are you under the impression that the college football schedule is 11 games?

In any case, can you get excited about Duke winning about half of its football games? Will you buy season tickets if that’s all anyone can hope for? How do you sell recruits on such a modest goal?

In my opinion, if that’s all you’re aiming for, you’re pretty much guaranteed to get a lot less. Terry Sanford talked about “outrageous ambitions.” I think that’s what we need to have when it comes to football.

Would I like Duke to do better? Absolutely.

Do I think it is a rational or reasonable assertion for Duke, on average, to be better than a .500 football team? Not at present.

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

Would I like Duke to do better? Absolutely.

Do I think it is a rational or reasonable assertion for Duke, on average, to be better than a .500 football team? Not at present.

Thank you!

[sagegrouse]

Would I like Duke to do better? Absolutely.

Do I think it is a rational or reasonable assertion for Duke, on average, to be better than a .500 football team? Not at present.

Instead of "assertion," I expect you meant "expectation." I dunno, Fuse, we have had winning records five of the last seven years. Why isn't winning football a reasonable expectation? What has changed, except that we are having a below-par season this year?

Pessimism on football is not surprising to me among folks in the Duke community and who can blame them? I was on a Duke tour with my grandson almost exactly five years ago. We had just lost badly to UNC the night before. The student tour guide, who was less than exceptional, was asked about football by a parent who didn't follow football. She said, "I am really down on the Duke football team." I had to interject, "Our record so far this season is eight and three." When the tour guide plead ignorance to a question about the swimming and diving team, I got to brag, "I don't know about swimming, but at the London Olympics two years ago, the USA won four medals in diving, two by Duke students." Then I decide to button my lips for the rest of the tour.

Kindly,
Sage Grouse
'I was even more obnoxious earlier. The guide pointed to a building and said, "There's the Fuqua business school," and nothing else. I said, "It was just ranked number one in the country by Bloomberg Business Week."'

[DUKIE V(A)]

I tend to think losing Daniel Jones to the NFL Draft a year early was hugely impactful to this season. Perhaps the presence of Jones, who had a strangle hold on the QB position, limited high rated guys who wanted to play right away from coming to Duke. Now that Jones is gone and has had a successful start to his NFL career maybe it will help gain us a big time QB prospect or two in the future. In Cut, I trust.

[Acymetric]

I tend to think losing Daniel Jones to the NFL Draft a year early was hugely impactful to this season. Perhaps the presence of Jones, who had a strangle hold on the QB position, limited high rated guys who wanted to play right away from coming to Duke. Now that Jones is gone and has had a successful start to his NFL career maybe it will help gain us a big time QB prospect or two in the future. In Cut, I trust.

Jones was known to be likely to leave early well before the 2018 season started, it did not catch anyone by surprise.

[roywhite]

Are we at the point in the season where injuries accumulate and weaken our defense?


I think it is wise, given our past record, to win everything we can in October.

Some veteran posters saw trouble ahead back in mid-October. :(

[Scorp4me]

Jones was known to be likely to leave early well before the 2018 season started, it did not catch anyone by surprise.

Jones in general caught people by surprise. A little known recruit who walked on his first year. Scared off Jack Sears (whose own commitment probably kept a few other recruits away). Sears may not have turned out great, but he was certainly highly rated. And then Jones was drafted 6th which again surprised everyone. I'd say Jones kinda made a profession of surprising people haha.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Jones was known to be likely to leave early well before the 2018 season started, it did not catch anyone by surprise.

That's not how I remember it. There was chatter about maybe him leaving, but hardly known as likely. And after 59-7, that talk died. The bowl game revived it.....


Some veteran posters saw trouble ahead back in mid-October. :(

Yes, we did.....I predicted 4-8 after Pitt. I just smelled it coming....

[duke2x]

I don't follow football all that closely, so could someone answer this for me? Are we 100% out of the bowl picture, or is it still technically possible to beat Miami for 5 wins and then land a bowl game using our outstanding graduation rates? Thanks!

By a quick count, which easily could be wrong, there are 72 bowl slots claimed. There are 14 that could be claimed this weekend, and Army must win its 2 remaining games. There are 80 slots this year. Of academic schools that could match Duke's graduation rate, Stanford (4-7) and Army (5-6) are the other competition. Note that UNC (5-6) could also have a high graduation rate but does not count as an academic school in my book.

We need to beat Miami and to have the 14 schools that are 5-6 to go 7-7 or worse.

[jimsumner]

The idea that Cutcliffe will not make changes to the coaching staff is based largely on a data point from 15 years ago. He does value loyalty but he also values winning football games. Duke has had some coaching turnover and not all of it has been because people jumped for better jobs.

[Troublemaker]

Many are expecting that there will be enough bowl eligible teams such that they won't need to fill any spots based on APR.

One site:

https://collegefootballnews.com/2019/11/bowl-projections-college-football-playoff-predictions-after-week-13

"As we see it right now, there will be exactly enough bowl eligible teams for the slots – there won’t be any need to dive into the APR tie-breaker (if you don’t know what that is, don’t worry about it for now)."

Thanks (and sporks) for the link. According to the link, unless I'm reading it wrong, we're just one MissSt over Ole Miss upset away from APR being a factor, and Ole Miss is only a 3-pt favorite this week.

There's hope here.

Obviously the most important (and perhaps unlikely) result is Duke beating Miami. But if we do happen to pull off an upset, I'm going to additionally root for Miss St so that bowl hopes stay alive.

[budwom]

Over the past four seasons, we are 9-22 in conference...but we managed to go to bowl games in 2017 and 2018 with 3-5 conference records, because we scheduled easy OOC games. It's pretty clear what we did and how we did it.
And I'm generally OK with that methodology*...HOWEVER, I think it's pretty clear that the program has some real problems right now, and even getting to 3-5 in conference in the future is going to be VERY difficult with the present coaching (and talent).
The rest of our division is improving.

I completely agree, White is not going to pressure Cutcliffe...any change we see will have to be initiated by Cutcliffe...I have no idea what he'll do...he's been very hesitant to discard coaches in the past, but as Jim says he's capable of it.**
We'll see.

I guess what I simply want to see is competent offensive coaching, and right now I've seen enough of our offense to conclude we're well short of that relatively low bar. It will be an interesting off season, that's for sure.

* yes, I wouldn't mind seeing better seasons as we had in what, 2013 and 2014...I think White's happy place has been to see football win 6-7 games/year, go to a minor bowl, with occasionally better years. I can live with that. But that's not where we're heading.
** unfortunately one previously ousted coach was John Latina, and our OL has never been the same after he left, despite having some pretty highly touted recruits.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I have no interest in bowling at 5-6.(Also, I'm not too optimistic we make it to 5.)

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Thanks (and sporks) for the link. According to the link, unless I'm reading it wrong, we're just one MissSt over Ole Miss upset away from APR being a factor, and Ole Miss is only a 3-pt favorite this week.

There's hope here. Obviously the most important (and perhaps unlikely) result is Duke beating Miami. But if we do happen to pull off an upset, I'm going to additionally root for Miss St so that bowl hopes stay alive.

IMO this is to miss the point. Sneaking into a bowl game at 5-7 with this dumpster fire is perhaps not even a good thing to hope for. We need to sneak off and hide and hope people/recruits etc don't really remember this crash and burn season - and hope we can solve at least some of the foundational problems in the program. This was never like two years ago when we rallied from 4-6 to 6-6 and then a bowl win...even as we were 4-6 before Saturday. Something broke last year. It's still broke.


Over the past four seasons, we are 9-22 in conference...but we managed to go to bowl games in 2017 and 2018 with 3-5 conference records, because we scheduled easy OOC games. It's pretty clear what we did and how we did it.
And I'm generally OK with that methodology*...HOWEVER, I think it's pretty clear that the program has some real problems right now, and even getting to 3-5 in conference in the future is going to be VERY difficult with the present coaching (and talent).
The rest of our division is improving.

I completely agree, White is not going to pressure Cutcliffe...any change we see will have to be initiated by Cutcliffe...I have no idea what he'll do...he's been very hesitant to discard coaches in the past, but as Jim says he's capable of it.**
We'll see.

I guess what I simply want to see is competent offensive coaching, and right now I've seen enough of our offense to conclude we're well short of that relatively low bar. It will be an interesting off season, that's for sure.

* yes, I wouldn't mind seeing better seasons as we had in what, 2013 and 2014...I think White's happy place has been to see football win 6-7 games/year, go to a minor bowl, with occasionally better years. I can live with that. But that's not where we're heading.
** unfortunately one previously ousted coach was John Latina, and our OL has never been the same after he left, despite having some pretty highly touted recruits.

Sporks and all that...I would only add that I'm extremely negative on the long term future. I think there's just too many inherent challenges for Duke. Cutcliffe is not the problem of course, but he alone is apparently short of being the solution. That's not his fault, although short term staffing is. I also think Cut might have missed what Spurrier understood about coaching at Duke...and that was, "pitch it around a bit" and just try to outscore them. Forget trying to be balanced and so on. That's not Duke's identity and never will be. Admit it, we're all surprised that Duke's D has been better than the O for a number of years now. I'd say since 2013. And yet, Duke does not have a D identity and never can. The only identity available to Duke is that of an offensive first factory for QBs and receivers - and a nice band box stadium where 20,000 looks good would help too. That could sell.

But the Wade re do was bungled due to wrong priorities...and that's not gonna change for many years, if ever. I know people are probably sick of me saying this, but all this about coordinators and free tix and concessions is merely deckchairs on the Titanic. Wade IS the Titanic.

First half of the 2013 Bowl game is the high point of Duke FB in my lifetime. I think it will remain that way.

[budwom]

yup, having watched 53 years of Duke football, the first half of the Chicken Bowl vs Texas A&M was the most impressive showing I've ever seen, and by a wide margin. Thrilled to have been there, even if we couldn't hold on for the win.

[YmoBeThere]

Characterizing this season as a dumpster fire is laughable...

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Characterizing this season as a dumpster fire is laughable...

What would you call the last 6-7 weeks? 4-1 is forgotten. Might as well not have happened.

[Troublemaker]

I have no interest in bowling at 5-6.(Also, I'm not too optimistic we make it to 5.)

You don't want the team to get an early start on next season? Use the extra bowl practices for reps to improve?


IMO this is to miss the point. Sneaking into a bowl game at 5-7 with this dumpster fire is perhaps not even a good thing to hope for. We need to sneak off and hide and hope people/recruits etc don't really remember this crash and burn season - and hope we can solve at least some of the foundational problems in the program. This was never like two years ago when we rallied from 4-6 to 6-6 and then a bowl win...even as we were 4-6 before Saturday. Something broke last year. It's still broke.

It's not like the team gets deleted from history if you don't go to a bowl. The choice is between people/recruits knowing you went 5-7 with no bowl game, or people/recruits knowing you went 5-7 and went to a bowl. One seems obviously preferable to me.

But, as mentioned, the first thing we have to do is beat Miami.

[Troublemaker]

You know, I actually prefer going to a bowl at 5-7 than at 6-6. (Obviously I would always choose bowl regardless).

If you're going to be mediocre, might as well accentuate the one thing that you're great at -- graduation.

[OldPhiKap]

4-1 is forgotten. Might as well not have happened.

True. I miss all those seasons where we didn't win a single game.

(Although we were 3-1 then 4-2, never 4-1 this year IIRC).

We have had some very bad losses lately. Very disappointing. But I just don't get your statement quoted above at all. Weren't you just arguing that past is prologue, and that one's future events depend upon the games that came before it?

[CameronBornAndBred]

You don't want the team to get an early start on next season? Use the extra bowl practices for reps to improve?


I know Cut likes to trot that out as being useful, and I'm sure in a way that it is, but it didn't help us this year. Right now, with this staff and our current players, I don't think much can happen to help this squad improve.
On to next season with new personnel.

[Acymetric]

I have no interest in bowling at 5-6.(Also, I'm not too optimistic we make it to 5.)

I have mixed opinions on this. On the one hand, extra practices and TV time. On the other hand, IF we beat Miami and the chips fall such that we get invited to a bowl at 5-7 (we need some help by way of some 5-6 teams losing this weekend for it to happen), I have a strong suspicion that we would end the season with the uncomfortable record of 5-8 (would that be an NCAA first?). Ultimately don't think it will matter as I don't think we can beat Miami, but I guess we'll see.


yup, having watched 53 years of Duke football, the first half of the Chicken Bowl vs Texas A&M was the most impressive showing I've ever seen, and by a wide margin. Thrilled to have been there, even if we couldn't hold on for the win.

The second half was really good too...I don't see it really any worse than the first. Possibly the only game I will rewatch even though my team lost...really great game.


True. I miss all those seasons where we didn't win a single game.

(Although we were 3-1 then 4-2, never 4-1 this year IIRC).

We have had some very bad losses lately. Very disappointing. But I just don't get your statement quoted above at all. Weren't you just arguing that past is prologue, and that one's future events depend upon the games that came before it?

Not to speak for him, but 4-1 (or whatever our record was at the beginning of the season) is "forgotten" in the sense that it just doesn't mean anything. Nobody (recruits, media, most fans) care that we went 4-1 by beating lower tier schools except in the sense that it set up our huge slide once we started facing stiff(ish) competition. It isn't a selling point or a source of optimism...so it just kind of doesn't matter.

[75Crazie]

If there is one optic that epitomizes the absurdity that college football has become, it is this: a 5-7 team playing in a bowl game. What a crock.

[Acymetric]

If there is one optic that epitomizes the absurdity that college football has become, it is this: a 5-7 team playing in a bowl game. What a crock.

I just want to take this as an opportunity to point out that while the current bowl run is impressive relative to Duke's prior bowl history, if the modern standards (6-6 gets you a bowl) were in place the last few decades we would have been to something like 9 additional bowls over that span, despite our general awfulness over that time.

[CameronBornAndBred]

If there is one optic that epitomizes the absurdity that college football has become, it is this: a 5-7 team playing in a bowl game. What a crock.

I also feel for the poor team that has to play a 5-7 school. Your reward for not having a losing season is to face a team that did have one.
As soon as Duke has been bowl eligible in the past, we kick up the "who are we going to play?" thread, and not once have I ever seen anyone say "I sure hope it's those losers over there". We have always wanted the best opponent available, and that same attitude would of course apply to every team that makes it to 6 wins and wonders who their opponent is.

[Troublemaker]

I know Cut likes to trot that out as being useful, and I'm sure in a way that it is, but it didn't help us this year. Right now, with this staff and our current players, I don't think much can happen to help this squad improve.
On to next season with new personnel.

Hard to say. Maybe we're sitting on 3 wins instead or a worse point differential. I'd agree that no amount of bowl practices was going to make us a 9-win team.

[Acymetric]

I also feel for the poor team that has to play a 5-7 school. Your reward for not having a losing season is to face a team that did have one.
As soon as Duke has been bowl eligible in the past, we kick up the "who are we going to play?" thread, and not once have I ever seen anyone say "I sure hope it's those losers over there". We have always wanted the best opponent available, and that same attitude would of course apply to every team that makes it to 6 wins and wonders who their opponent is.

Another reason our bowl wins don't inspire a great deal of excitement for me. I just can't get super hyped for wins over Northern Illinois or Temple (no matter how much people insist that was a "really good" Temple team).

[jv001]

yup, having watched 53 years of Duke football, the first half of the Chicken Bowl vs Texas A&M was the most impressive showing I've ever seen, and by a wide margin. Thrilled to have been there, even if we couldn't hold on for the win.

Thankfully I can go back further and be blessed to have seen Duke football in the days of Wray Carlton, Mike Curtis, Carlton Hines, etc. One of my most enjoyable games was the win over Arkansas and Lance Alworth. As for this season, the Alabama game did not cause the year to go down hill. It was having a QB who is not D-1 talented and having an OC who was so predictable in his play calling, a YMCA little league coach would know what the game script was. Our defense had to stay on the field far too long. I will say that our offensive line did not help matters either. I'm hoping to see a new OC next season and better quarterbacking as well. Having better line play will go along way in making the offense a success. GoDuke!

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

True. I miss all those seasons where we didn't win a single game.

(Although we were 3-1 then 4-2, never 4-1 this year IIRC).

We have had some very bad losses lately. Very disappointing. But I just don't get your statement quoted above at all. Weren't you just arguing that past is prologue, and that one's future events depend upon the games that came before it?

I am too lazy to research, but I thought most prognosticators had us at 5 or 6 wins before the season started.

[TruBlu]

Another reason our bowl wins don't inspire a great deal of excitement for me. I just can't get super hyped for wins over Northern Illinois or Temple (no matter how much people insist that was a "really good" Temple team).

And just imagine if we go bowling this year at 5-7, and end up losing to Middle Indiana State Teachers College. Probably wouldn't help our recruiting.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

True. I miss all those seasons where we didn't win a single game.

(Although we were 3-1 then 4-2, never 4-1 this year IIRC).

We have had some very bad losses lately. Very disappointing. But I just don't get your statement quoted above at all. Weren't you just arguing that past is prologue, and that one's future events depend upon the games that came before it?

You may soon get back to those seasons you miss.

As far as past is prologue, yeah, it is, and the last 5 games indicate the team is at present a dumpster fire. So I'm not saying give back the 4 wins...I'm saying that in analyzing where the team is today (utterly incapable of beating Ga Tech or Va Tech for sure, and likely not capable of beating MTSU) - that those four wins might as well have not happened.

Past is prologue, but the first six games are not effective prologue given where the last 5 have taken up. The last 5? That's who we are.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Past is prologue, but the first six games are not effective prologue given where the last 5 have taken up. The last 5? That's who we are.

What?

Why would the more recent games be any more "who we are" than ones two months ago?

I mean, in a way you are correct. Games in September are "who we were then" as much as games last weekend are "who we are this week."

If you are saying our team's identity is the 7 losses, but not the 4 wins, well... I don't know what to say.

There's a lot of understandable frustration on this board, but this team never looked like a 9 or 10 win team. If we had made one more good play, we'd be 5-6 and UNC would be 4-7. I suspect that might change some of the angst.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

What?

Why would the more recent games be any more "who we are" than ones two months ago?

.

I'll assume you are kidding, right?

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I'll assume you are kidding, right?

No?

Feel free to reply to the rest of my post where I explain my statement if you'd like to actually address my point.

[killerleft]

The idea that Cutcliffe will not make changes to the coaching staff is based largely on a data point from 15 years ago. He does value loyalty but he also values winning football games. Duke has had some coaching turnover and not all of it has been because people jumped for better jobs.

I suspected as much. Thanks.

It is hard to believe that a head coach preaching 'accountability' has a blind spot just for assistant coaches.

[AustinDevil]

The idea that Cutcliffe will not make changes to the coaching staff is based largely on a data point from 15 years ago. He does value loyalty but he also values winning football games. Duke has had some coaching turnover and not all of it has been because people jumped for better jobs.

Wasn’t “I want to bring my staff with me” one of the primary reasons Cut’s return to the Vols did not happen a few years ago?

[budwom]

Wasn’t “I want to bring my staff with me” one of the primary reasons Cut’s return to the Vols did not happen a few years ago?

it was, but those guys were uniformly competent. TBD how Cut deals with the current state of affairs.

[Acymetric]

it was, but those guys were uniformly competent. TBD how Cut deals with the current state of affairs.

We have mostly the same staff we had in 2017 when that was going on.

[budwom]

We have mostly the same staff we had in 2017 when that was going on.

true, though Bridge wasn't yet the OL coach

[arnie]

What?

Why would the more recent games be any more "who we are" than ones two months ago?

I mean, in a way you are correct. Games in September are "who we were then" as much as games last weekend are "who we are this week."

If you are saying our team's identity is the 7 losses, but not the 4 wins, well... I don't know what to say.

There's a lot of understandable frustration on this board, but this team never looked like a 9 or 10 win team. If we had made one more good play, we'd be 5-6 and UNC would be 4-7. I suspect that might change some of the angst.

My concern is related to how we were destroyed from the beginning to the end by UVA, ND and Syracuse as well as by WF on offense and defense last Saturday. I think if we had been marginally competitive in those games this discussion would have a different look. The ole “Wait till next year” slogan is very important now.

[BigWayne]

By a quick count, which easily could be wrong, there are 72 bowl slots claimed. There are 14 that could be claimed this weekend, and Army must win its 2 remaining games. There are 80 slots this year. Of academic schools that could match Duke's graduation rate, Stanford (4-7) and Army (5-6) are the other competition. Note that UNC (5-6) could also have a high graduation rate but does not count as an academic school in my book.

We need to beat Miami and to have the 14 schools that are 5-6 to go 7-7 or worse.

Only 78 slots. The 40th bowl game is the CFP championship game, so only 39 games need to be filled.

This link is usually updated almost realtime as the games get finished.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_NCAA_football_bowl_games

Of the 13 teams that are needing to win one more game, 6 of them are favored, so it's pretty likely all 78 slots get filled, but not guaranteed. The last two years, there have been 3 or 4 eligible teams that did not get invites. Three years ago, two conditional teams got in.

Duke is 3rd in APR this year. #1 is Air Force which is eligible already at 9-2. #2 is Northwestern, who are 2-9 this year.

[Highlander]

My concern is related to how we were destroyed from the beginning to the end by UVA, ND and Syracuse at the as well as by WF on offense and defense last Saturday. I think if we had been marginally competitive in those games this discussion would have a different look. The ole “Wait till next year” slogan is very important now.

Agreed. We have been awful the last few weeks on both sides of the ball, particularly on offense. Wake (a team we should be competitive with) spotted us 14 points on kickoff returns and still beat us soundly for the second year in a row. Syracuse was winless in the conference, but came into WW and absolutely beat us like a drum. We managed a pair of field goals against Cuse; this week, UL hung 55 on them. And we were never at any point in the UVA or ND games. Even the UNC game was absolutely gifted to us on a silver platter and we managed to throw it away.

The effort on some of our plays vs. Wake was just atrocious. Two to three guys required for every tackle. Secondary repeatedly failing to locate the ball. Linebackers getting run over by RB's. Wake's first TD of the second half was a great example - we blitzed and never even got within 3 yards of the QB, who had all day to throw. He wouldn't need it, because his receiver had not one, but two or three steps on our safety. Boom. 62 yard TD pass that was just waay to easy.

Sadly, we look more like the teams from the Franks/Roof era right now than we do a typical Cutcliff team.

[AustinDevil]

it was, but those guys were uniformly competent. TBD how Cut deals with the current state of affairs.

My intent wasn’t to comment on their competence, it was to gently refute the notion that the Ole Miss data point was all we had regarding Cut being unusually eager to protect his staff.

[Acymetric]

true, though Bridge wasn't yet the OL coach

Yeah, but the OL coach in 2016-2017 (Marcus Johnson) was as bad or maybe worse (with no position coaching experience prior to being promoted to OL coach). Not sure how he is doing at Mississippi State in his two years there so far.

[budwom]

Yeah, but the OL coach in 2016-2017 (Marcus Johnson) was as bad or maybe worse (with no position coaching experience prior to being promoted to OL coach). Not sure how he is doing at Mississippi State in his two years there so far.

maybe it takes time for bad coaching to percolate thru the ranks, who knows? For the past few years, we've had quite a few examples of guys with very limited experience getting position coaching jobs...that may have finally caught up with us...that and having some guys, like Bridge, who just don't seem to be very good...Jeff Faris for example became wide receivers coach after two years of being a grad assistant at Duke, no prior position coaching jobs. This year they brought in Trooper to coach the receivers presumably because we needed help there...

[richmclean]

Our records reflect the relative talent level compared to the other schools in the conference and as compared with other premium academic schools that play Power 5 football.

We play in the ACC with teams that graduate their players to the NFL, so to speak. Again Duke has 9 ex-players in the NFL who are mostly from the 2012-2016 years.

Heres the NFL player count for ACC teams from ESPN.com:
Duke 9
Wake 9
Georgia Tech 11
Syracuse 11
VT 14
BC 17
UVA 17
Louisville 18
UNC 21
NC State 25
Pitt 25
Clemson 33
FSU 39
Miami 48

Other comparative schools:
Northwestern 14
Vanderbilt 16
Stanford 32
ND 38

While not perfect as a metric our average recruiting ratings are usually in the 50s-80s range.

Who on this team projects as an all-ACC much less an NFLer? Maybe Monk the OT? Calhoun? Jackson? Dimukuje?

We can tinker with coaches and play calling but I can't believe for example that the DBs are being coached to never look for the ball. Ever. Not once. Anyway in the end its on the players. When say Pitt lines up with Duke they have 3 future NFL Players to each one of Dukes. When Duke has done well it reflects on the players. Same as where we are now.

[sagegrouse]

Six-year-old data but too depressing to update. Here are the NFL draft picks by school for years 2001-2013. Omits Syracuse, L'ville and Pitt and includes Maryland

DU 2 (as in "two")
BC 21
WF 21
GT 26
MD 30
VA 33
ST 38
CL 43
NC 43
VT 55
FS 70
MI 78

This is clearly a Whiskey Tango Foxtrot table.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Six-year-old data but too depressing to update. Here are the NFL draft picks by school for years 2001-2013. Omits Syracuse, L'ville and Pitt and includes Maryland

DU 2 (as in "two")
BC 21
WF 21
GT 26
MD 30
VA 33
ST 38
CL 43
NC 43
VT 55
FS 70
MI 78

This is clearly a Whiskey Tango Foxtrot table.

So, powerhouses BC and Wake have more than 10 fold what Duke has? Wow, what a stat.

[AustinDevil]

Six-year-old data but too depressing to update. Here are the NFL draft picks by school for years 2001-2013. Omits Syracuse, L'ville and Pitt and includes Maryland

DU 2 (as in "two")
BC 21
WF 21
GT 26
MD 30
VA 33
ST 38
CL 43
NC 43
VT 55
FS 70
MI 78

This is clearly a Whiskey Tango Foxtrot table.
OK, I’m not pleased with recent performance but you ^cannot* look at that set of years and say it’s representative of the Cut era in any meaningful way.

[sagegrouse]

OK, I’m not pleased with recent performance but you ^cannot* look at that set of years and say it’s representative of the Cut era in any meaningful way.

OK, try this! While I am not going to update the table, here is an additional column of stats -- draft choices per year from 2001-2013:


DU 2 0.2
BC 21 1.6
WF 21 1.6
GT 26 2.0
MD 30 2.3
VA 33 2.5
ST 38 2.9
CL 43 3.3
NC 43 3.3
VT 55 4.2
FS 70 5.4
MI 78 6.0

Since 2013 -- six years -- we have had four draft choices, which is 0.7 per draft -- less than one-half of any of the other schools listed in the table.

Take another look at the last six years. There are from 224 to 256 selections each draft (up to 32 compensatory picks). That's about 1,400 over six years -- four of those 1,400 came from Duke. Now we got quite a few guys in the league who were not drafted, but the lack of players picked should say something about the talent level.

Now 0.7 per year from 2014-2019 is quite a bit better than 0.2 per year for the 13 preceding years.

[OldPhiKap]

OK, try this! While I am not going to update the table, here is an additional column of stats -- draft choices per year from 2001-2013:


DU 2 0.2
BC 21 1.6
WF 21 1.6
GT 26 2.0
MD 30 2.3
VA 33 2.5
ST 38 2.9
CL 43 3.3
NC 43 3.3
VT 55 4.2
FS 70 5.4
MI 78 6.0

Since 2013 -- six years -- we have had four draft choices, which is 0.7 per draft -- less than one-half of any of the other schools listed in the table.

Take another look at the last six years. There are from 224 to 256 selections each draft (up to 32 compensatory picks). That's about 1,400 over six years -- four of those 1,400 came from Duke. Now we got quite a few guys in the league who were not drafted, but the lack of players picked should say something about the talent level.

Now 0.7 per year from 2014-2019 is quite a bit better than 0.2 per year for the 13 preceding years.

What that also shows me is how much our coaches get out of non-pro talent compared to several others.

How many five stars do we have on the team right now? Or four stars? We seem to specialize in "diamonds in the rough" three and two stars. Which is not unexpected at a small university with high academic admissions compared to the competition.

[duke2x]

QB is a major unknown next season!

Holmberg gained zero experience this season due to injury. There is an incoming freshman, Luca Diamont, from Los Angeles who, obviously, will have no experience. Coach Cutcliffe has not opted to give Katrenick significant playing time this year so he appears not to be a viable option.

This is the biggest reason why extra bowl practice isn't going to help as much this year. While I'm looking forward to seeing his 3rd TD at Duke this Saturday, Katrenick would be your 2020 #1. I hope Diamont decides to graduate HS a semester early.

[Acymetric]

This is the biggest reason why extra bowl practice isn't going to help as much this year. While I'm looking forward to seeing his 3rd TD at Duke this Saturday, Katrenick would be your 2020 #1. I hope Diamont decides to graduate HS a semester early.

I have seen that Holmberg might be able to play in the bowl game, although I don't know if we would want to waste the year of eligibility to get him snaps (although that assumes he'll be granted a 6th year since he already redshirted last season). I don't think Diamont is a clear-cut favorite, I expect it will probably be an open competition between he and Holmberg. I haven't heard whether Diamont plans to enroll early, if not I would assume Holmberg is the starter at least to begin the season.

[OldPhiKap]

I have seen that Holmberg might be able to play in the bowl game, although I don't know if we would want to waste the year of eligibility to get him snaps (although that assumes he'll be granted a 6th year since he already redshirted last season). I don't think Diamont is a clear-cut favorite, I expect it will probably be an open competition between he and Holmberg. I haven't heard whether Diamont plans to enroll early, if not I would assume Holmberg is the starter at least to begin the season.

I think you can play up to four games and not lose your redshirt (assuming he gets one for this year). Wiser folks may know better though.

[Acymetric]

I think you can play up to four games and not lose your redshirt (assuming he gets one for this year). Wiser folks may know better though.

Ah, right, good point.

[AustinDevil]

OK, try this! While I am not going to update the table, here is an additional column of stats -- draft choices per year from 2001-2013:


DU 2 0.2
BC 21 1.6
WF 21 1.6
GT 26 2.0
MD 30 2.3
VA 33 2.5
ST 38 2.9
CL 43 3.3
NC 43 3.3
VT 55 4.2
FS 70 5.4
MI 78 6.0

Since 2013 -- six years -- we have had four draft choices, which is 0.7 per draft -- less than one-half of any of the other schools listed in the table.

Take another look at the last six years. There are from 224 to 256 selections each draft (up to 32 compensatory picks). That's about 1,400 over six years -- four of those 1,400 came from Duke. Now we got quite a few guys in the league who were not drafted, but the lack of players picked should say something about the talent level.

Now 0.7 per year from 2014-2019 is quite a bit better than 0.2 per year for the 13 preceding years.


Sure, less than 1/2 of anyone else, but a 350% increase over our own 2001-13 numbers! Woohoo! /s

Obviously, still a valid point; thanks for the later data.

[DU82]

I think you can play up to four games and not lose your redshirt (assuming he gets one for this year). Wiser folks may know better though.

Since he’s already had a redshirt year, playing in a game this year may jeopardize a chance at a sixth year medical redshirt.

[devilirium]

Bama game was one of the stupidest ideas the program has had. Do you know how much money we got from it or what we did with it?


About 4 M. Helps if the big daddy donors are in wait and see mode.

[devilirium]

Our records reflect the relative talent level compared to the other schools in the conference and as compared with other premium academic schools that play Power 5 football.

We play in the ACC with teams that graduate their players to the NFL, so to speak. Again Duke has 9 ex-players in the NFL who are mostly from the 2012-2016 years.

Heres the NFL player count for ACC teams from ESPN.com:
Duke 9
Wake 9
Georgia Tech 11
Syracuse 11
VT 14
BC 17
UVA 17
Louisville 18
UNC 21
NC State 25
Pitt 25
Clemson 33
FSU 39
Miami 48

Other comparative schools:
Northwestern 14
Vanderbilt 16
Stanford 32
ND 38

While not perfect as a metric our average recruiting ratings are usually in the 50s-80s range.

Who on this team projects as an all-ACC much less an NFLer? Maybe Monk the OT? Calhoun? Jackson? Dimukuje?

We can tinker with coaches and play calling but I can't believe for example that the DBs are being coached to never look for the ball. Ever. Not once. Anyway in the end its on the players. When say Pitt lines up with Duke they have 3 future NFL Players to each one of Dukes. When Duke has done well it reflects on the players. Same as where we are now.

Re: the DBs, that has to be coaching. With very few exceptions, it's been that way since Derek Jones has been here. Our DB's look to drive kids to the sideline and rake the ball out of their hands on the catch (if we are lucky).

[HereBeforeCoachK]

About 4 M. Helps if the big daddy donors are in wait and see mode.

Is that 4 M Duke money, or ACC money, where Duke will get the biggest share but not all of it....like most bowl/TV monies...

BTW, full disclosure...I'm on record as saying it was a bad decision....but if Duke got a full 4 M, I revise my statement. Wade Stadium tickets haven't generated 4 M this decade combined I bet.

[DukeDTD]

OK, I’m not pleased with recent performance but you ^cannot* look at that set of years and say it’s representative of the Cut era in any meaningful way.

Agreed. But you can look at this set of data which covers 2009-2018 and say it is representative of the Cut era. Duke placement of players in the NFL draft is an extreme low outlier again and is a fraction of any other ACC team, including WF.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ADavidHaleJoint/status/990379736617668608

This chart tells several stories. First of all, it can be argued that Duke got more wins with less talent - I think that definitely applied from 2009-2015. That time frame was where Cut got his rep for doing more with less talent by having extremely disciplined teams that did not make mistakes. That time frame is also where all 4 draft picks were.

On the other hand, it would be difficult to say that WF, UVA, Cuse, BC and GT have been recruiting significantly better rated talent, especially from 2015 forward. Yet they continue to produce draft picks almost every year and exponentially greater over the 10 year time frame. As a point of reference, 247 shows that this year's Duke roster has equal or higher rated recruited talent than every ACC school except Clemson, Miami, FSU, VT and UNC.

DJ went in the 2019 draft. In the 2020 draft, for the 4th time the 5 drafts starting with 2016, Duke will not have a player drafted. You can argue about how much to attribute the low number of drafted players to recruiting issues vs talent development issues. Either way, the same folks are responsible.

[Acymetric]

Agreed. But you can look at this set of data which covers 2009-2018 and say it is representative of the Cut era. Duke placement of players in the NFL draft is an extreme low outlier again and is a fraction of any other ACC team, including WF.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ADavidHaleJoint/status/990379736617668608

This chart tells several stories. First of all, it can be argued that Duke got more wins with less talent - I think that definitely applied from 2009-2015. That time frame was where Cut got his rep for doing more with less talent by having extremely disciplined teams that did not make mistakes. That time frame is also where all 4 draft picks were.

On the other hand, it would be difficult to say that WF, UVA, Cuse, BC and GT have been recruiting significantly better rated talent, especially from 2015 forward. Yet they continue to produce draft picks almost every year and exponentially greater over the 10 year time frame. As a point of reference, 247 shows that this year's Duke roster has equal or higher rated recruited talent than every ACC school except Clemson, Miami, FSU, VT and UNC.

DJ went in the 2019 draft. In the 2020 draft, for the 4th time the 5 drafts starting with 2016, Duke will not have a player drafted. You can argue about how much to attribute the low number of drafted players to recruiting issues vs talent development issues. Either way, the same folks are responsible.

Not only is it a fraction of the next worse ACC team, I would venture to guess that it is significantly worse than every single other P5 team. It is likely the lowest number of draft picks in all of D1-FBS. There are probably several FCS schools with more as well.

I agree with pretty much everything in this post, but especially the last sentence, a sentiment I thin I have repeated several times over the course of this season and especially the last couple weeks.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

. As a point of reference, 247 shows that this year's Duke roster has equal or higher rated recruited talent than every ACC school except Clemson, Miami, FSU, VT and UNC.
.


WHOA, wow, I wouldn't have thought that. Amazing. And disturbing and encouraging all at once.

[Acymetric]

WHOA, wow, I wouldn't have thought that. Amazing. And disturbing and encouraging all at once.

FWIW, when I look on the numbers I also see us noticably behind NC State and Louisville. We look to be roughly on par with Pitt and GT, and (according to the rankings) a fair bit ahead of Wake, BC, Syracuse, and Virginia.

https://247sports.com/Season/2019-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/?Conference=ACC

I'm focusing on total points, average, and number of 4 stars.

[TruBlu]

FWIW, when I look on the numbers I also see us noticably behind NC State and Louisville. We look to be roughly on par with Pitt and GT, and (according to the rankings) a fair bit ahead of Wake, BC, Syracuse, and Virginia.

https://247sports.com/Season/2019-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/?Conference=ACC

I'm focusing on total points, average, and number of 4 stars.

It’s a good thing we didn’t play BC this year. Didn’t do too good against teams where we had more talent. SMDH.

[DukeDTD]

FWIW, when I look on the numbers I also see us noticably behind NC State and Louisville. We look to be roughly on par with Pitt and GT, and (according to the rankings) a fair bit ahead of Wake, BC, Syracuse, and Virginia.

https://247sports.com/Season/2019-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/?Conference=ACC

I'm focusing on total points, average, and number of 4 stars.

Fair enough. I was only comparing the average rating. No matter how you look at it, we no longer have a significant recruited talent gap with many ACC teams.

[Acymetric]

Fair enough. I was only comparing the average rating. No matter how you look at it, we no longer have a significant recruited talent gap with many ACC teams.

Yeah, my only issue with focusing on average is that I think a class with (simplified example) 20 4 stars, 30 3 stars, and 40 2 stars is better than a team with 10 4 stars, 70 3 stars, and 10 2 stars even though the averages come out pretty similarly. Depth is important (and we have improved there) but your top-end (best starters) is important too and that is an area where we still lag behind a large chunk of the conference.

Honestly, that is an area where we seem to be lagging behind ourselves from previous years in the 2009-2015 range (based on results on the field). I have hopes for some of our young WRs, but so far the last few years up to this year we aren't seeing any of the Connor Vernon, Donovan Varner, Jamison Crowder, Laken Tomlinson, Ross Cockrell, DeVon Edwards, Matt Daniels, Jeremy Cash, Vincent Rey (to name a few) type impact players. Maybe along the d-line a little bit (which is admittedly a welcome improvement!).

[devilirium]

Before this year, Duke and Cut were pretty savvy in scheduling highly winnable out of conference games, usually 3-4 of them/year. That has often allowed us to win only three conference games and still go to a bowl...e.g. 2017 and 2018.
Cut emphasizes the importance of going to a bowl for both recruiting purposes, and for the extra weeks of practice it provides.

So OK, replace Elon or Charlotte with some more illustrious opponents, but do understand that it will almost certainly decrease our chances of a bowl.

Its emblematic of a program that hasnt recruited very well in about 6 to 7 years...with a coach that has all the energy of Droopy Dawg in public settings.

[budwom]

Yeah, my only issue with focusing on average is that I think a class with (simplified example) 20 4 stars, 30 3 stars, and 40 2 stars is better than a team with 10 4 stars, 70 3 stars, and 10 2 stars even though the averages come out pretty similarly. Depth is important (and we have improved there) but your top-end (best starters) is important too and that is an area where we still lag behind a large chunk of the conference.

Honestly, that is an area where we seem to be lagging behind ourselves from previous years in the 2009-2015 range (based on results on the field). I have hopes for some of our young WRs, but so far the last few years up to this year we aren't seeing any of the Connor Vernon, Donovan Varner, Jamison Crowder, Laken Tomlinson, Ross Cockrell, DeVon Edwards, Matt Daniels, Jeremy Cash, Vincent Rey (to name a few) type impact players. Maybe along the d-line a little bit (which is admittedly a welcome improvement!).

Indeed, there is at least some irony in that fact that while our average recruit ratings have gone up, Cut used to find some genuine diamonds in the two star rough....IIRC guys like DeVon Edwards, some of the other guys you mention (Vernon?) who were lightly recruited but proved to be big time playmakers. This current team is VERY short on playmakers. Which is why, as of two weeks ago, we were 129th out of 130 teams in terms of explosive plays.

[sagegrouse]

DJ went in the 2019 draft. In the 2020 draft, for the 4th time the 5 drafts starting with 2016, Duke will not have a player drafted. You can argue about how much to attribute the low number of drafted players to recruiting issues vs talent development issues. Either way, the same folks are responsible.

How about Koby Quansah?

[Acymetric]

How about Koby Quansah?

He might get a look as a UDFA but I don't think anyone is projecting him as even a late round draft pick (or at least I haven't seen it). Cerenord might have gotten some late round looks if not for the injuries (although he seems to have recovered nicely) but realistically he would be looking at UDFA too if he gets a chance.

[budwom]

He might get a look as a UDFA but I don't think anyone is projecting him as even a late round draft pick (or at least I haven't seen it). Cerenord might have gotten some late round looks if not for the injuries (although he seems to have recovered nicely) but realistically he would be looking at UDFA too if he gets a chance.

FWIW, I heard on one broadcast earlier in the year that pro scouts wandering by Duke rated McSwain as perhaps our best prospect...I have no idea how that translates into draftability...we've had stuff like that happen before, i.e. not highly touted guy making it with a team, Bernard Holsey comes to mind.

[DukeDTD]

FWIW, I heard on one broadcast earlier in the year that pro scouts wandering by Duke rated McSwain as perhaps our best prospect...I have no idea how that translates into draftability...we've had stuff like that happen before, i.e. not highly touted guy making it with a team, Bernard Holsey comes to mind.

Same. At the beginning of the season, I read where McSwain was the only guy that had a chance of being drafted and his chances were slim. Quansah is likely too slow for the NFL - I think he runs something like a 4.8 (which is why we were asking for pass interference or worse in the Pitt game by employing a scheme that had Quansah isolated on Carter with no help over the top....oops....I digress). JGH had the same issue with his speed (also around 4.8) hurting his draft stock.

Have loved Quansah as a college player. Unfortunate that his last two years were injury-riddled.

[jimsumner]

Same. At the beginning of the season, I read where McSwain was the only guy that had a chance of being drafted and his chances were slim. Quansah is likely too slow for the NFL - I think he runs something like a 4.8 (which is why we were asking for pass interference or worse in the Pitt game by employing a scheme that had Quansah isolated on Carter with no help over the top...oops...I digress). JGH had the same issue with his speed (also around 4.8) hurting his draft stock.

Have loved Quansah as a college player. Unfortunate that his last two years were injury-riddled.

Duke expects McSwain, Quansah and Singleton to get some NFL attention, perhaps 7th round, perhaps UFA.

[budwom]

Singleton missed so many tackles vs Wake I lost track....would love to see some of our guys find their ways onto NFL rosters, but pickings are slim with this class.

[DukeDTD]

Duke expects McSwain, Quansah and Singleton to get some NFL attention, perhaps 7th round, perhaps UFA.

Hope it happens for those guys if that is the path they choose.