AP and Coaches' 2020 Polls

[Edouble]

Duke is #1 in both the AP poll and the Coaches' poll this week.

We usually have a thread following the polls throughout the season, so I thought I'd start one up.

I noticed something very unusual, but I have yet to see it anywhere, so I guess I will be the one to point it out: I'd say that this is without a doubt the first time that any team has been ranked #1 nationally, while sitting way down in eighth place in their own conference.

[uh_no]

Duke is #1 in both the AP poll and the Coaches' poll this week.

We usually have a thread following the polls throughout the season, so I thought I'd start one up.

I noticed something very unusual, but I have yet to see it anywhere, so I guess I will be the one to point it out: I'd say that this is without a doubt the first time that any team has been ranked #1 nationally, while sitting way down in eighth place in their own conference.

I'm skeptical that's true. All it would take is for the team ranked #1 to lose their first conference game, in which case they'd be ranked last.

[JasonEvans]

I'm skeptical that's true. All it would take is for the team ranked #1 to lose their first conference game, in which case they'd be ranked last.

Or if a #1 team happened to play their first conference game after a bunch of other teams (perhaps they had a bye in the first set of games) then they would sit in the middle of the conference. Really not all that remarkable in my mind.

[cakerace]

Duke is #1 in both the AP poll and the Coaches' poll this week.

We usually have a thread following the polls throughout the season, so I thought I'd start one up.

I noticed something very unusual, but I have yet to see it anywhere, so I guess I will be the one to point it out: I'd say that this is without a doubt the first time that any team has been ranked #1 nationally, while sitting way down in eighth place in their own conference.

Maybe not in the "without a doubt" category, but rising to #1 while 8th in your conference sounds pretty rare to me. And I don't see our conference record getting any better for at least two weeks. Or more... :)

[Saratoga2]

Maybe not in the "without a doubt" category, but rising to #1 while 8th in your conference sounds pretty rare to me. And I don't see our conference record getting any better for at least two weeks. Or more... :)

Our ineffective offense makes us vulnerable, even Thursday. We have to show improvement on offense or our #1 rating will not last long.

[sagegrouse]

Maybe not in the "without a doubt" category, but rising to #1 while 8th in your conference sounds pretty rare to me. And I don't see our conference record getting any better for at least two weeks. Or more... :)

As my father explained to me when I was six years old and beginning to play with sports stats, a 0-0 record is not 0.500. Or, maybe I misunderstand your comment.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

As my father explained to me when I was six years old and beginning to play with sports stats, a 0-0 record is not 0.500. Or, maybe I misunderstand your comment.
But it is true that 0-0 is a half game ahead of 0-1 and a half game behind 1-0. As I keep telling my significant other during baseball season, only the loss column matters because you can't un-lose a game (and assuming that the total number of games to be played is equal, whether 162 or 18 or 20).http://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/devil9f.gif

[subzero02]

But it is true that 0-0 is a half game ahead of 0-1 and a half game behind 1-0. As I keep telling my significant other during baseball season, only the loss column matters because you can't un-lose a game (and assuming that the total number of games to be played is equal, whether 162 or 18 or 20).http://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/devil9f.gif

the concept of it being impossible to un-lose a game is something i have discussed since I was a teenager... and I have used that exact term. It's really the most important factor when discussing standings in any sport.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

the concept of it being impossible to un-lose a game is something i have discussed since I was a teenager... and I have used that exact term. It's really the most important factor when discussing standings in any sport.

....true, and then there's the wrinkle you get in hockey with the point system, and therefore having "games in hand" is a very key metric in assessing standings.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

the concept of it being impossible to un-lose a game is something i have discussed since I was a teenager... and I have used that exact term. It's really the most important factor when discussing standings in any sport.
I will give credit to John Sterling, Yankees famed radio broadcaster, for my learning the term many years ago! LGD GTHc!

[jv001]

the concept of it being impossible to un-lose a game is something i have discussed since I was a teenager... and I have used that exact term. It's really the most important factor when discussing standings in any sport.

I've had this same argument with some of my baseball friends for years. I tell them to look at the loss column when the season gets to August 1st, but they just want to look at the games behind number. Like you said, you can't un-lose a game. GoDuke!

[Rich]

As I keep telling my significant other during baseball season, only the loss column matters because you can't un-lose a game (and assuming that the total number of games to be played is equal, whether 162 or 18 or 20).


the concept of it being impossible to un-lose a game is something i have discussed since I was a teenager... and I have used that exact term. It's really the most important factor when discussing standings in any sport.


I've had this same argument with some of my baseball friends for years. I tell them to look at the loss column when the season gets to August 1st, but they just want to look at the games behind number. Like you said, you can't un-lose a game. GoDuke!

Patrick Davidson can un-lose a game (https://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?8690-Patrick-Davidson-is-an-Urban-legend&highlight=patrick+davidson)

[killerleft]

As my father explained to me when I was six years old and beginning to play with sports stats, a 0-0 record is not 0.500. Or, maybe I misunderstand your comment.

I agree. We have no record within the conference yet. We're in the void. We're pinin' for the fjords (not really, but I was yearning to type that).

[moonpie23]

kansas had a more "crappy" game than we did.....UK didn't show on it's home floor......I don't think we're the best team in the country...

[UrinalCake]

MSU was ranked #1 and tied for last place in the country after their first game.

[Edouble]

I'm skeptical that's true. All it would take is for the team ranked #1 to lose their first conference game, in which case they'd be ranked last.

Very true, like when we lost to BC at BC on (if memory serves) 12/12/2017 during a horrendous snowstorm, in our first conference game. I believe we were undefeated (5-0) and ranked #1 in the country.


Duke is #1 in both the AP poll and the Coaches' poll this week.

We usually have a thread following the polls throughout the season, so I thought I'd start one up.

I noticed something very unusual, but I have yet to see it anywhere, so I guess I will be the one to point it out: I'd say that this is without a doubt the first time that any team has been ranked #1 nationally, while sitting way down in eighth place in their own conference.


Maybe not in the "without a doubt" category, but rising to #1 while 8th in your conference sounds pretty rare to me. And I don't see our conference record getting any better for at least two weeks. Or more... :)

Cake, you stated it better than I did, but what I meant was that this must be the first time that a team achieved the #1 ranking (rose to the rank, as you put it so well) while already sitting in eighth place in their conference.

The difference to me is that we were first in 8th place and then rose to the #1 ranking, as opposed to being ranked #1, then dropping to a low standing in the conference. I'm sure the latter has happened many times, but in the reverse order, sitting at 8th in the conference, then rising up in the polls to #1 nationally... that can't have ever happened.

[arnie]

Caught part of the ACC network last night - yes I am privileged😀

The talking heads said K at Duke has played more games while ranked #1 than games while unranked. If I heard that correctly, just WOW.

[English]

kansas had a more "crappy" game than we did....UK didn't show on it's home floor...I don't think we're the best team in the country...

I initially was thinking this too--especially after CTC and our exhibitions--and it could be true. Mostly I think this is confirmation bias, since I've now watched a number of games this year among "top teams" and they all look super vulnerable. With the exception of tOSU trouncing Nova (and my God, Nova looked inept), nobody has looked like a complete team. Either you have teams like UMd or Gonzaga shellacking JV squads or you have really raw, choppy play in bad-but-competitive games.

[SkyBrickey]

I'm totally fine with #1. We did beat KU. We are undefeated. There's no other team that has a strong case to be ahead of us.

And I don't worry so much about this team getting complacent or over-confident. If anyone shows signs of that - and it usually shows up on defense - then that player sits and the next highly-talented guy steps in. It's a huge luxury with this team having the option to go 10-11 deep.

[slower]

I'm totally fine with #1. We did beat KU. We are undefeated. There's no other team that has a strong case to be ahead of us.


Which will probably end by 12/3, at the latest. Sparty in East Lansing? Based on what we've seen so far, there's no way we beat them. Unless this is just the weakest college basketball season in recent memory. This current Duke team being ranked #1 fails the eye test miserably.

Maybe things completely change in 12 days. It's possible, I suppose.

[SkyBrickey]

Which will probably end by 12/3, at the latest. Sparty in East Lansing? Based on what we've seen so far, there's no way we beat them. Unless this is just the weakest college basketball season in recent memory. This current Duke team being ranked #1 fails the eye test miserably.

Maybe things completely change in 12 days. It's possible, I suppose.

Maybe you’re right or maybe you aren’t giving our defense enough credit. I’m definitely expecting us to drop several games this year. And Mich St should be favored at home - but by 2-3, not 10.

[budwom]

Maybe you’re right or maybe you aren’t giving our defense enough credit. I’m definitely expecting us to drop several games this year. And Mich St should be favored at home - but by 2-3, not 10.

at this ultra early juncture, Ken The Pomeranian has us losing to MSU by 6....

[Edouble]

Which will probably end by 12/3, at the latest. Sparty in East Lansing? Based on what we've seen so far, there's no way we beat them. Unless this is just the weakest college basketball season in recent memory. This current Duke team being ranked #1 fails the eye test miserably.

Maybe things completely change in 12 days. It's possible, I suppose.

Half the board said the same thing about Kansas.

[jv001]

at this ultra early juncture, Ken The Pomeranian has us losing to MSU by 6...

I just hope the Michigan State football, I mean basketball team doesn't injury any of our guys. I know the refs will swallow their whistles. GoDuke!

[BD80]

Which will probably end by 12/3, at the latest. Sparty in East Lansing? Based on what we've seen so far, there's no way we beat them. ...

That is why they play the games …

Until a recent one point game, Coach K had done pretty well against Izzo.

We'll have the most athletic Cassius on the floor ...

[slower]

That is why they play the games …

Until a recent one point game, Coach K had done pretty well against Izzo.

We'll have the most athletic Cassius on the floor ...

So, you're saying there's a chance? :p

[killerleft]

So, you're saying there's a chance? :p

No pie bet, but I wouldn't bet on Izzo to beat K at any time. We know it can happen:(, but it usually doesn't.:)

[uh_no]

No pie bet, but I wouldn't bet on Izzo to beat K at any time. We know it can happen:(, but it usually doesn't.:)

ouch. the hurt runs deep.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Duke to 10th in latest AP. Knew we'd drop, but that seems silly.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings

[Rich]

Duke to 10th in latest AP. Knew we'd drop, but that seems silly.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings

Looks like those ESPN promos for Duke v. Michigan State are gonna take a beating! From 1v3 to 10v11.

Michigan up 22 spots? Wow!

[Saratoga2]

Duke to 10th in latest AP. Knew we'd drop, but that seems silly.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings

Even coach K says a lot of teams could beat us.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Duke to 10th in latest AP. Knew we'd drop, but that seems silly.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings

Meh, they are still sorting things out. Michigan's rise shows us that. Early polls are pretty meaningless.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Duke to 10th in latest AP. Knew we'd drop, but that seems silly.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings

Doesn't seem silly at all. We lost to a bad team. At home. When we were the #1 team in the country.

I thought we'd hit the teens. I'll take 10.

[53n206]

Meh, they are still sorting things out. Michigan's rise shows us that. Early polls are pretty meaningless.

Agree vs early polls. Think rated #10 may be generous.

[uh_no]

Duke to 10th in latest AP. Knew we'd drop, but that seems silly.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings

not really, given our relatively poor showings against ga st and winthrop, and given the injury to stanley. Georgetown is looking less good after up and getting beat by UNCG, and cal struggled against a bad UC davis team. On top of that, we have the worst loss among the top 10.

Borderline top 10 sounds about right if you look at our recent play.

[OldPhiKap]

Meh. It's a young team without a horde of OAD players. For those (like me) who have yearned for a larger share of multi-year players, well -- this is the growing pains we should expect.

Ten sounds about right, but you could bump us a few either way and it would still be ballpark.

[UrinalCake]

By comparison, when Kentucky lost to Evansville they dropped from #1 to #9. But of course it’s not an equal scenario, because we have a little more data to go on now plus there were teams like Michigan that shot up and jumped everybody.

Ten feels about right given the way the polls work. If you watched us against SFA and Winthrop, you wouldn’t have us ranked. But we do still have that win over Kansas.

[W&LHoo]

Every 2-3 years the basketball pundits seem to declare that it's a "down year" for college basketball.

In-general I've always found that useless as it has no real predictive value, nor, relatedly, can it be verified. But this is the first year it has felt accurate to me. None of the "top teams" seem to be that strong given the eye test. Moreover, bunches of teams are losing games they ought not lose.

I can tell you that the general consensus among Wahoos is that it's absurd that we're ranked where we are; I'm . . . reasonably confident we're the 4th or 5th best team in the ACC, but 5th in the nation in the AP and 2nd (!?!) in the coaches poll seems absurd. This VA squad is good, sure. But this is a rebuilding year, and we don't rebuild as speedily as do our southern cousins.

Where do you guys think this Duke team really shakes out currently, and where would you guess by year's end?

[SkyBrickey]

#10 feels right. I think the consensus on this team was that it would improve a lot this season as its offense developed to catch up with its stellar defense.

Unfortunately, this team seems to have regressed against SFA and Winthrop. Our dominant defense has gone dormant. Now with Cassius Stanley out, we are missing a key weapon on both ends.

But it's the drama and the promise of improvement - possibly even a breakthrough performance against Michigan State - that keeps us all tuning in.

Devils by 8 tomorrow night...

[Devilwin]

I will take ten. And would not be one bit surprised if we win tomorrow. Right now to me, this team is anywhere from 13 to 17. By year's end they could be a top five team. Lots of basketball to be played..

[bullettoothtony]

Every 2-3 years the basketball pundits seem to declare that it's a "down year" for college basketball.

In-general I've always found that useless as it has no real predictive value, nor, relatedly, can it be verified. But this is the first year it has felt accurate to me. None of the "top teams" seem to be that strong given the eye test. Moreover, bunches of teams are losing games they ought not lose.

I can tell you that the general consensus among Wahoos is that it's absurd that we're ranked where we are; I'm . . . reasonably confident we're the 4th or 5th best team in the ACC, but 5th in the nation in the AP and 2nd (!?!) in the coaches poll seems absurd. This VA squad is good, sure. But this is a rebuilding year, and we don't rebuild as speedily as do our southern cousins.

Where do you guys think this Duke team really shakes out currently, and where would you guess by year's end?



Hard to say what's an appropriate ranking for you guys but, once again, Bennett puts your team in such great position to have success by continuing to utilize outstanding defensive strategy. It may not be pretty but it is effective. Period.

So I have no problem where you're ranked.

I have no idea about us. Once again our team evolution is derailed by a key injury. And I wasn't terribly impressed before Stanley got hurt, to this point. Top 10 for us at this point is probably generous in my opinion. But I still like our potential.

And of course the rankings at this point don't mean much. Let's see where we are MLK-Day-ish.

[jv001]

Every 2-3 years the basketball pundits seem to declare that it's a "down year" for college basketball.

In-general I've always found that useless as it has no real predictive value, nor, relatedly, can it be verified. But this is the first year it has felt accurate to me. None of the "top teams" seem to be that strong given the eye test. Moreover, bunches of teams are losing games they ought not lose.

I can tell you that the general consensus among Wahoos is that it's absurd that we're ranked where we are; I'm . . . reasonably confident we're the 4th or 5th best team in the ACC, but 5th in the nation in the AP and 2nd (!?!) in the coaches poll seems absurd. This VA squad is good, sure. But this is a rebuilding year, and we don't rebuild as speedily as do our southern cousins.

Where do you guys think this Duke team really shakes out currently, and where would you guess by year's end?

Currently, I'd say somewhere from 10-20 on a national basis and in the top 4 or 5 in the ACC. But I this Duke team has room to grow and will improve by tournament time. Losing Cassius really hurts right now because he looks to be one of the best wing defenders we've had in a while. But that's just my opinion. When he returns our stock goes up. Other players that should get better include; Moore who some Duke fans are down on right now, but I think he will become a more consistent player as he get's more confidence and the staff finds how to best use his skills. Baker can shoot and looks like he can improve his defense. Those are two of the players that come to mind and there are some wild cards who might step up as well. I guess what I'm saying is it's too early to tell how good Duke can be because there isn't a sure fire top ten draft choice on the team as in past seasons, but we do have the GOAT on the bench and I'm not counting them out.
GoDuke!

[JasonEvans]

I bet less than 2% of the posters on this site have watched more than a couple minutes of the rest of the top 25. Maybe you saw some of the Battle For Atlantis or one of the other Thanksgiving tourneys. Maybe you watched Kansas and Kentucky play on opening day. You likely watched at least some of the other ACC teams in action... but raise your hand if you have seen more than 5 minutes of Ohio St, Maryland, Gonzaga, Baylor, Purdue, Auburn, Seton Hall, and Oregon.

If you, like me, have not seen those teams play much (at all) then I don't know how you could possibly make any meaningful comparison between Duke and those teams (to say nothing of more "watchable" teams like UNC, Virginia, Louisville, Kentucky, Michigan, and so on). It is simply too early in the season to have much data based on game results (many of the top teams have not played any meaningful opponents) so we are all just largely guessing based on reputation and looking at boxscores.

So, the polls say Duke is #10... fine. Whatever. It could have said 6 or it could have said 16 and I would not have had any real data to say it was a good or bad spot for us. We've shown we are more than capable of playing with what appear to be other elite teams and we have shown we are more than capable of playing down to teams who would be thrilled to even make the tournament (and would likely be #15 or #16 seeds if they did). At this stage of the season, the reality is that we know very, very little.

-Jason "we will start to know more in coming days as the ACC-Big Ten happens" Evans

[Rich]

I bet less than 2% of the posters on this site have watched more than a couple minutes of the rest of the top 25. Maybe you saw some of the Battle For Atlantis or one of the other Thanksgiving tourneys. Maybe you watched Kansas and Kentucky play on opening day. You likely watched at least some of the other ACC teams in action... but raise your hand if you have seen more than 5 minutes of Ohio St, Maryland, Gonzaga, Baylor, Purdue, Auburn, Seton Hall, and Oregon.

If you, like me, have not seen those teams play much (at all) then I don't know how you could possibly make any meaningful comparison between Duke and those teams (to say nothing of more "watchable" teams like UNC, Virginia, Louisville, Kentucky, Michigan, and so on). It is simply too early in the season to have much data based on game results (many of the top teams have not played any meaningful opponents) so we are all just largely guessing based on reputation and looking at boxscores.

So, the polls say Duke is #10... fine. Whatever. It could have said 6 or it could have said 16 and I would not have had any real data to say it was a good or bad spot for us. We've shown we are more than capable of playing with what appear to be other elite teams and we have shown we are more than capable of playing down to teams who would be thrilled to even make the tournament (and would likely be #15 or #16 seeds if they did). At this stage of the season, the reality is that we know very, very little.

-Jason "we will start to know more in coming days as the ACC-Big Ten happens" Evans

"Watchable Virginia" seems like an oxymoron

[weezie]

I bet less than 2% of the posters on this site have watched more than a couple minutes of the rest of the top 25...

I tell ya what, Nico Mannion at AZ is a force to be reckoned with. That young man knows how to play point guard, maybe not so much on the defense but his 3 is unconscious at times. He's making Chase Jeter look pretty darned good...even with the still dopey pant leg affectation.

[sagegrouse]

I tell ya what, Nico Mannion at AZ is a force to be reckoned with. That young man knows how to play point guard, maybe not so much on the defense but his 3 is unconscious at times. He's making Chase Jeter look pretty darned good...even with the still dopey pant leg affectation.

Chase Jeter is a bit of a mystery, but I am pulling for him. Loved Duke academics (Academic All-ACC); did not love Duke athletics.

[OldPhiKap]

I bet less than 2% of the posters on this site have watched more than a couple minutes of the rest of the top 25.

Thanks to the ACC Network (which I am told exists outside of Comcast world) my viewing of Dike is not too far ahead of that.

[mattman91]

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/associated-press


Up to #7 in the AP.

[flyingdutchdevil]

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/associated-press


Up to #7 in the AP.

Louisville, OSU, and Maryland all deserve to be ranked above Duke. Maryland has had a fairly weak schedule, and good for them for not losing. OSU has beat a few ranked teams and haven't lost. And the 'ville have an impressive resume plus they are playing the best basketball in the country right now.

I also get Michigan, given that they lost to Louisville.

Not sure I agree behind Kansas and the Zags above Duke. Kansas lost to Duke and has looked okay. The Zags lost to Michigan and are ranked #9 in KenPom.

I guess the morale of the story is, if you lose, don't lose to really bad teams at home.

[hudlow]

Louisville, OSU, and Maryland all deserve to be ranked above Duke. Maryland has had a fairly weak schedule, and good for them for not losing. OSU has beat a few ranked teams and haven't lost. And the 'ville have an impressive resume plus they are playing the best basketball in the country right now.

I also get Michigan, given that they lost to Louisville.

Not sure I agree behind Kansas and the Zags above Duke. Kansas lost to Duke and has looked okay. The Zags lost to Michigan and are ranked #9 in KenPom.

I guess the morale of the story is, if you lose, don't lose to really bad teams at home.

I prefer to think Duke lost at home to a highly overlooked team... :)

[Rich]

Louisville, OSU, and Maryland all deserve to be ranked above Duke. Maryland has had a fairly weak schedule, and good for them for not losing. OSU has beat a few ranked teams and haven't lost. And the 'ville have an impressive resume plus they are playing the best basketball in the country right now.

I also get Michigan, given that they lost to Louisville.

Not sure I agree behind Kansas and the Zags above Duke. Kansas lost to Duke and has looked okay. The Zags lost to Michigan and are ranked #9 in KenPom.

I guess the morale of the story is, if you lose, don't lose to really bad teams at home.

There's a huge recency bias built into the polls. The fact that we beat Kansas the first game of the season carries little weight in the polls after a week or two.

[flyingdutchdevil]

There's a huge recency bias built into the polls. The fact that we beat Kansas the first game of the season carries little weight in the polls after a week or two.

Possibly. But the SFA loss, which was ~2 weeks ago, is still very, very fresh in voters' minds. As is Kentucky's Evansville loss.

Terrible losses are much more impactful than amazing wins.

[Reddevil]

I prefer to think Duke lost at home to a highly overlooked team... :)

You just know the "committee" is already planning to pit Duke and SFA against each other in the first weekend of the NCAA's.

[Rich]

You just know the "committee" is already planning to pit Duke and SFA against each other in the first weekend of the NCAA's.

A. That would be great because we are and will be a much better team but will also have the revenge mindset and KNOW that we could lose

and

B. I believe the committee tries to keep from matchups that took place during the season, except for the later rounds when it's pretty much outside their control

[CameronBornAndBred]

Duke is 5 in the Coaches, with the difference being both Zags (6) and Michigan (7) behind us.

What's most important is that the baby blues had the biggest drop in both polls, to 17 (AP) and 16. :D:D

[devildeac]

Duke is 5 in the Coaches, with the difference being both Zags (6) and Michigan (7) behind us.

What's most important is that the baby blues had the biggest drop in both polls, to 17 (AP) and 16. :D:D

They could descend to Hades as far as I'm concerned.

[moonpie23]

i'm fine with 6 or 7

[cakerace]

What's the over/ under on "teams getting first place votes" this week???

[JasonEvans]

What's the over/ under on "teams getting first place votes" this week???

I'll say 3. Kansas and Gonzaga for sure... and maybe Duke or someone else.

-Jason "Carolina falls out of the top 20... and if they lose again to Gonzaga they may be unranked next week" Evans

[CameronBornAndBred]

I'll say 3. Kansas and Gonzaga for sure... and maybe Duke or someone else.

-Jason "Carolina falls out of the top 20... and if they lose again to Gonzaga they may be unranked next week" Evans

I bet they are gone from the top 25 today. With the injuries to Anthony and Black, they are not a top 25 team and voters know it. Wofford proved it to them.

[fisheyes]

Looking good at #4!

Kansas (47)
Gonzaga (15)
Louisville (1)
Duke (2)

Don't bother searching for the cheaters!

[JasonEvans]

Don't bother searching for the cheaters!

6 years, 106 consecutive polls... buh-bye.

[Hartford Dukie]

First NET rankings are out and has Duke crazily at 13 - though Duke has the most Quad 1 wins (4) of any team - but only top 30 team with a Quad 3 or 4 loss. cheaters are #95 :)

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/net-rankings-debut-ohio-state-is-no-1-in-ncaas-official-metric-followed-by-kansas-and-san-diego-state/

Didn't mean to post smily next to NET rankings - except for cheats.

[SkyBrickey]

Taking a look at our schedule and it sets up pretty well for us this year. Our three toughest remaining games (on paper) are:

Louisville (3) - home - 1/18
Florida St (19) - home - 2/10
Virginia (9) - away - 2/29

We also have to go play at Clemson, Wake Forest, Syracuse, NC State, and UNC - all I'm sure will be battles as usual. And GT has a couple of players coming back and may be a tough game in Atlanta.

[DU82]

First NET rankings are out and has Duke crazily at 13 - though Duke has the most Quad 1 wins (4) of any team - but only top 30 team with a Quad 3 or 4 loss. cheaters are #95 :)

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/net-rankings-debut-ohio-state-is-no-1-in-ncaas-official-metric-followed-by-kansas-and-san-diego-state/

Didn't mean to post smily next to NET rankings - except for cheats.

The UK home loss to Evansville was quad 2? Or are they not top 30?

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

6 years, 106 consecutive polls... buh-bye.
How’d they even get 1 vote let alone 41?

[Hartford Dukie]

The UK home loss to Evansville was quad 2? Or are they not top 30?

Kentucky is #58!

[devildeac]

How’d they even get 1 vote let alone 41?

One vote for each point The Old Ball Coach and his crew hung on them "back in the day." ;)

[uh_no]

First NET rankings are out and has Duke crazily at 13 - though Duke has the most Quad 1 wins (4) of any team - but only top 30 team with a Quad 3 or 4 loss. cheaters are #95 :)

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/net-rankings-debut-ohio-state-is-no-1-in-ncaas-official-metric-followed-by-kansas-and-san-diego-state/

Didn't mean to post smily next to NET rankings - except for cheats.

worrying about NET rankings at this point doesn't mean too too much as they have no pre-season bias.

Also a friendly reminder that NET is not meant to be a predictor...therefore doing things like actually rewarding wins, or having a heavy fall off in weight as victory margin grows are reasonable things to do. (not that it's prerfect...but it incentivizes the type of scheduling the ncaa (and us) would like to see far better than RPI ever could)

[JasonEvans]

First NET rankings are out and has Duke crazily at 13 - though Duke has the most Quad 1 wins (4) of any team - but only top 30 team with a Quad 3 or 4 loss. cheaters are #95 :)

SFAustin is a very respectable 74 in the NET ratings... but playing that game at home still makes it a Quad 3 loss for Duke. Ouch.

[brevity]

How’d they even get 1 vote let alone 41?

College Poll Tracker (https://collegepolltracker.com/basketball/) is your new best friend.

The breakdown of votes for UNC (https://collegepolltracker.com/basketball/team/north-carolina-tar-heels/2019) shows that only 8 of the 65 AP voters kept them in the Top 25. For 7 of them, UNC was ranked #20 or lower.

Then there's Scott Wolf (https://collegepolltracker.com/basketball/pollster/scott-wolf/2019/week-7), who has them at #14. He also is one of three voters putting Duke at #10, lower than everyone else.

10013

Normally I wouldn't call out anyone based on their looks, but he has not aged well since Party of Five.

[uh_no]

SFAustin is a very respectable 74 in the NET ratings... but playing that game at home still makes it a Quad 3 loss for Duke. Ouch.

does quad factor in much at all anymore?

NVM: i see. they take net and then use that to make the quads.

[Hartford Dukie]

Behind Kansas and Gonzaga

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings

But unbelievably have the cheats at #23

[Bob Green]

But unbelievably have the cheats at #23

Gonzaga will take care of that.

[MartyClark]

Gonzaga will take care of that.

Maybe wishful thinking but hopefully UCLA, the next game, puts another nail in the Carolina coffin

[CameronBornAndBred]

But unbelievably have the cheats at #23

Eh, they have the embarrassing honor of being the only team with 4 losses. Question is, who is it more embarrassing for...the team or the folks that voted for them.

[sagegrouse]

Behind Kansas and Gonzaga

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings

But unbelievably have the cheats at #23

This is a "failure to penalize" UNC for poor results on the court due to the anticipation that Cole and Leaky will return (or else Roy is paying his friends in the coaching profession).

[Reddevil]

This is a "failure to penalize" UNC for poor results on the court due to the anticipation that Cole and Leaky will return (or else Roy is paying his friends in the coaching profession).

In fairness, the losing is not limited to the basketball team and is available to the entire student body so....:rolleyes:

[scottdude8]

SFAustin is a very respectable 74 in the NET ratings... but playing that game at home still makes it a Quad 3 loss for Duke. Ouch.

Actually, that makes it a Q2 loss: Q2 is Home 31-75. That said, I've got a sneaky suspicion that SFA's NET rating is artificially skewed by that win, and it will more than likely end up being a Q3 loss by season's end.

I was curious about this loss, so I went back and looked at the final "Team Sheets" from last season. The highest NET ranked team with a Q3 loss was No. 7 Texas Tech, which earned a 3-seed in the Tourney. Purdue also had one, was NET No. 11, and a 3-seed. The next "major conference" (i.e. not Buffalo) team with a Q3 loss was Maryland, who were NET No. 25 and a 6-seed. All of this is to say the following: there doesn't seem to be a comparable situation to Duke and Kentucky's bad losses in last year's NET rankings (i.e. a team in real contention for a No. 1 seed with this bad of a loss), which means we're heading into uncharted waters this year. How the committee ends up viewing those losses is going to be a huge wild-card!

An interesting note: while there are officially the four "quadrants", on the team-sheets each quadrant is further split in half for more differentiation. Not only does Duke have four Q1 wins that are likely to hold up, they also have two "top-half" Q1 wins in N Kansas and @ MSU that will likely hold up. That, along with the obvious possibility for us to get more wins of that caliber playing in the ACC, is going to be a potential differentiator and something that could offset the SFA loss.

Something else interesting: Gonzaga has already played four "top-half Q1" games and is 3-1 in them. The UNC game will probably end up a low end Q1 or at worst a Q2 game by season's end, and BYU and Saint Mary's are good enough this year that the conference schedule should provide another one or two Q1 opportunities for the Zags when they play those teams on the road. With that setup and their non-conference resume, it's going to be hard to knock the Zags off of the one-line in the West barring an unusual string of losses. So we may be competing with teams like Ohio State, Maryland, Kansas, Louisville, Virginia, etc. for just three obtainable No. 1 seeds.

Almost time for me to get back to my deep-dive "Net News" articles... that means it's officially official that it's CBB season :)

[UrinalCake]

worrying about NET rankings at this point doesn't mean too much as they have no pre-season bias.

Yeah, I remember last season when the first NET rankings came out they were largely lambasted as they contained many statistical outliers. But by the end of the season they turned out to be pretty accurate. That first ranking even had Texas Tech at #1 if I remember correctly, which everyone said was absurd but then they wound up making the Final Four.

This season the NCAA waited for a couple more weeks into the season before releasing the first set of rankings, but I think everyone knows to be patient and let them adapt as the season progresses. The tournament isn’t being played today. For us to be #35 with that terrible (on paper) SFA loss on our resume and a small total number of games is perfectly reasonable.

[fisheyes]

Duke stays at #4 with 1 first place vote.

Cheaters now in Lunardi's first four out of the tourney and sinking like a rock.

Gonzaga (54)
Ohio State (9)
Louisville (1)
Duke (1)
Kansas
Oregon
Baylor
Auburn
Memphis
Villanova


UVa 16
Fla St 17
Kentucky 19

[buddy]

How can you have a headline that says Duke moved up in both polls when they stayed in the same position in each?

[OldPhiKap]

How can you have a headline that says Duke moved up in both polls when they stayed in the same position in each?

“New Math”

(although maybe they meant we moved up in votes?)

[gam7]

How can you have a headline that says Duke moved up in both polls when they stayed in the same position in each?

It is possible to move higher in the polls by earning a greater number of aggregate points than in the prior week, even if your absolute ranking number does not change. I am not able to easily verify that this occurred last week vs. the prior week for Duke, but it is possible that this is what the headline means.

[BlueDevil16]

Duke stays at #4 with 1 first place vote.

Cheaters now in Lunardi's first four out of the tourney and sinking like a rock.

Gonzaga (54)
Ohio State (9)
Louisville (1)
Duke (1)
Kansas
Oregon
Baylor
Auburn
Memphis
Villanova


UVa 16
Fla St 17
Kentucky 19

Ohio State looks overrated there

[NYBri]

Gonzaga is likely to stay there for quite some time, because they play cupcakes.

[Bluedog]

Gonzaga is likely to stay there for quite some time, because they play cupcakes.

I mean, true, but we lost at home to SFA so anything can happen and you still have to come ready to play.

[msdukie]

How can you have a headline that says Duke moved up in both polls when they stayed in the same position in each?

Kind of like how can you have an article on the front page about Dick Groat retiring at the end of this season and that we should savor his last trip to Cameron, when the article cited is a year old and he retired at the end of the 18-19 season and this was discussed back then? Look, I love DBR but the front page articles aren't exactly what they used to be and there have been tons of incorrect statements in recent years....

[fisheyes]

Duke really does move up this week to #2 in the AP poll.

The best part is that Yale got 1 vote! Cheaters: none! Go Bulldogs!

1. Gonzaga 63
2. Duke 1
3. Kansas 1
4. Oregon
5. Ohio State

[OldPhiKap]

The best part is that Yale got 1 vote! Cheaters: none! Go Bulldogs!


That means if UNC beats Yale tonight, IC will be talking about the great upset pulled off by the Heels.

[devildeac]

That means if UNC beats Yale tonight, IC will be talking about the great upset pulled off by the Heels.

Think they'll storm the court at dean's myth center if they pull off the upset?

:rolleyes:

[OldPhiKap]

Think they'll storm the court at dean's myth center if they pull off the upset?



What? And put down their wine glasses?

Puh-lease.

[devildeac]

What? And put down their whine glasses?

Puh-lease.

FIFY as the young'ins say...

;)

[OldPhiKap]

FIFY as the young'ins say...

;)

I am just glad that the last game ever played in Carmichael (for now) was a loss to an unranked team.

[SkyBrickey]

I am perfectly happy at #2, but we are #1 and 5 spots ahead of Gonzaga in KenPom...

Some solid work over the past 2 weeks by our guys without their PG leader.

[JasonEvans]

The number that really matters is do you get a #1 seed... and do you get to play in a preferred venue in the tourney. At the moment, Duke would be a lock to get a #1 and would get Greensboro in the first two rounds and then (if we advance) Madison Sq Garden for the SW16 and regional final. That is just how we want it this season.

-Jason "Gonzaga gets LA, Kansas gets Houston, and either Louisville or Ohio St gets Indianapolis... at this moment" Evans

[AtlBluRew]

The number that really matters is do you get a #1 seed... and do you get to play in a preferred venue in the tourney. At the moment, Duke would be a lock to get a #1 and would get Greensboro in the first two rounds and then (if we advance) Madison Sq Garden for the SW16 and regional final. That is just how we want it this season.

-Jason "Gonzaga gets LA, Kansas gets Houston, and either Louisville or Ohio St gets Indianapolis... at this moment" Evans

True, but I hope that K gets to add to his record "games coached at #1".

[budwom]

The number that really matters is do you get a #1 seed... and do you get to play in a preferred venue in the tourney. At the moment, Duke would be a lock to get a #1 and would get Greensboro in the first two rounds and then (if we advance) Madison Sq Garden for the SW16 and regional final. That is just how we want it this season.

-Jason "Gonzaga gets LA, Kansas gets Houston, and either Louisville or Ohio St gets Indianapolis... at this moment" Evans

We're all of one game into the ACC schedule, but yeah, we're a number one now for what that's worth. As a famous man has been wont to say, let's see what happens.

[brevity]

The best part is that Yale got 1 vote! Cheaters: none! Go Bulldogs!

College Poll Tracker (https://collegepolltracker.com/basketball/) tells us that John Feinstein gave Yale that 1 point (https://collegepolltracker.com/basketball/team/yale-bulldogs/2019) by ranking them 25th both last week and this week.

[fisheyes]

College Poll Tracker (https://collegepolltracker.com/basketball/) tells us that John Feinstein gave Yale that 1 point (https://collegepolltracker.com/basketball/team/yale-bulldogs/2019) by ranking them 25th both last week and this week.

Cool site. Thanks for sharing. Scott Wolf (voted Duke as 7) is a DB, clearly. He's a USC grad so maybe he's got a Trojan covering his eyes.

[pfrduke]

I’m sure not a ton of voters are watching Gonzaga-Pepperdine until almost midnight eastern on a Saturday night, but...

I wonder whether Duke will see an increase in #1 votes after a 33-point shellacking of Miami on the road while Gonzaga survived 7-9 Pepperdine by 5 at home (after struggling against Portland earlier this week).

[uh_no]

I’m sure not a ton of voters are watching Gonzaga-Pepperdine until almost midnight eastern on a Saturday night, but...

I wonder whether Duke will see an increase in #1 votes after a 33-point shellacking of Miami on the road while Gonzaga survived 7-9 Pepperdine by 5 at home (after struggling against Portland earlier this week).

i don't think too highly of the amount of thought the voters put into their votes on average, but I wouldn't be surprised if some took note.

[pfrduke]

i don't think too highly of the amount of thought the voters put into their votes on average, but I wouldn't be surprised if some took note.

Duke’s week: +39 over BC (KP 143); +33 @ Miami (KP 90) - collective +40 against the KP spread
Gonzaga’s week: +13 @ Portland (KP 272); +5 over Pepperdine (KP 177) - collective -23 against the KP spread

[CameronBornAndBred]

I think we'll have an increase in #1 votes merely because the other options outside the top two performed so poorly.
I doubt we'll see Gonzaga lose again til tourney time, they have an embarrassingly pitiful cupcake schedule in front of them. Unless St. Mary's pulls off an unlikely upset, they get to coast til March. It's almost criminal that they are in the one spot at this point in the season.

[uh_no]

I think we'll have an increase in #1 votes merely because the other options outside the top two performed so poorly.
I doubt we'll see Gonzaga lose again til tourney time, they have an embarrassingly pitiful cupcake schedule in front of them. Unless St. Mary's pulls off an unlikely upset, they get to coast til March. It's almost criminal that they are in the one spot at this point in the season.

I think you're overselling how good gonzaga is or underappreciating st marys or bYU.

I'm not sure whether it says more about the weakness of the ACC, gonzaga, or the strength of Duke, but KP gives duke twice as much chance as gonzaga at winning out...KP doesn't think particularly highly of gonzaga such that they're projected to lose at st marys and barely scrape by at BYU.

[duke4ever19]

Does anyone know at what point Pomeroy dispenses with the pre-season polls he uses at the start of the season?

Is there 'moment of truth' when he cuts the polls loose and we get to see some interesting changes, or is it a gradual filtering out of pre-season influence, which we don't actually notice without doing a bit of digging into the numbers?

[pfrduke]

Does anyone know at what point Pomeroy dispenses with the pre-season polls he uses at the start of the season?

Is there 'moment of truth' when he cuts the polls loose and we get to see some interesting changes, or is it a gradual filtering out of pre-season influence, which we don't actually notice without doing a bit of digging into the numbers?

It’s around now. Virginia and UNC have had big downward movements that are only partially explained by recent results.

[Bob Green]

I think you're overselling how good gonzaga is or underappreciating st marys or bYU.


I agree. WCC is a competitive league. It isn’t the ACC or Big10 but the Zags will be challenged before March. It remains to be seen if they rise to the challenge.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I think you're overselling how good gonzaga is or underappreciating st marys or bYU.

I'm not sure whether it says more about the weakness of the ACC, gonzaga, or the strength of Duke, but KP gives duke twice as much chance as gonzaga at winning out...KP doesn't think particularly highly of gonzaga such that they're projected to lose at st marys and barely scrape by at BYU.

I don't think so. Before commenting, I made sure to look up both BYU's and St Mary's' schedules.
BYU has less losses (one being to SDSU, who is legit), but the others are to Utah and Boise State and some of the wins against lesser teams are squeekers.
St. Mary's has lost to Winthrop, Dayton (#20), and Pacific.
Neither of those teams scream world beaters. While it's possible they beat Gonzaga, I doubt it.
So I'll stick to my statement that Gonzaga has a cupcake schedule. Definitely not one worthy of a "#1" team.

[tbyers11]

Does anyone know at what point Pomeroy dispenses with the pre-season polls he uses at the start of the season?

Is there 'moment of truth' when he cuts the polls loose and we get to see some interesting changes, or is it a gradual filtering out of pre-season influence, which we don't actually notice without doing a bit of digging into the numbers?

The effect the pre-season influence in the KenPom rankings degrades over the course of the season until they go away completely about mid-January

[arnie]

I don't think so. Before commenting, I made sure to look up both BYU's and St Mary's' schedules.
BYU has less losses (one being to SDSU, who is legit), but the others are to Utah and Boise State and some of the wins against lesser teams are squeekers.
St. Mary's has lost to Winthrop, Dayton (#20), and Pacific.
Neither of those teams scream world beaters. While it's possible they beat Gonzaga, I doubt it.
So I'll stick to my statement that Gonzaga has a cupcake schedule. Definitely not one worthy of a "#1" team.

Tend to agree with this.

What’s surprising, despite Duke the clear No. 1 in all nerd rating systems, Gonzaga has all but two 1st place votes in both AP and Coaches polls. Duke and Kansas each have 1 and I’m surprised Gonzaga has so much love with the same # of losses as Duke.

Anyway, Gonzaga will likely lose no more than 2-3 total games this year and finish No.1 in polls unless Duke turns this into a 1998-1999 season. Also, when Kansas or Duke is given the tourney overall No. 1 seed, all the West Coast will howl.

[OldPhiKap]

I don't think so. Before commenting, I made sure to look up both BYU's and St Mary's' schedules.
BYU has less losses (one being to SDSU, who is legit), but the others are to Utah and Boise State and some of the wins against lesser teams are squeekers.
St. Mary's has lost to Winthrop, Dayton (#20), and Pacific.
Neither of those teams scream world beaters. While it's possible they beat Gonzaga, I doubt it.
So I'll stick to my statement that Gonzaga has a cupcake schedule. Definitely not one worthy of a "#1" team.

Gonzaga is sorta like Clemson football. Clearly an elite team, but without a lot of strong competition to test just how good.

[uh_no]

Gonzaga is sorta like Clemson football. Clearly an elite team, but without a lot of strong competition to test just how good.

barely beating pepperdine, and close games against each of the teams ranked 10-20kp they've played doesn't scream elite to me. they're good, no doubt... but i haven't seen much to suggest they're better than any of the other rabble of teams up there. id put them at 5-10 eye test, and coincidentally that aligns with kp.

[MChambers]

barely beating pepperdine, and close games against each of the teams ranked 10-20kp they've played doesn't scream elite to me. they're good, no doubt... but i haven't seen much to suggest they're better than any of the other rabble of teams up there. id put them at 5-10 eye test, and coincidentally that aligns with kp.

Interestingly, T-Rank has Gonzaga at #16, and predicts three more regular season losses for them. Lot of games still to be played.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Gonzaga is sorta like Clemson football. Clearly an elite team, but without a lot of strong competition to test just how good.
If I were a Zags fan come tourney time, I'd be way nervous.

[robed deity]

Interestingly, T-Rank has Gonzaga at #16, and predicts three more regular season losses for them. Lot of games still to be played.

They lost so much from last year. Tillie and Kispert remain, and they have other quality guys. But hard not to take a step back with Hachimura, Clarke, Norvell,and Perkins gone.

[BandAlum83]

Stephen F Austin is slowly moving up the KenPom rankings. They are now at 119. The loss is looking less bad than the day it happened.

[53n206]

Stephen F Austin is slowly moving up the KenPom rankings. They are now at 119. The loss is looking less bad than the day it happened.

Some "less bad"is still terribly bad.

[DoubleBlue]

Some "less bad"is still terribly bad.

Right, but the sting of that loss is still fresh and it keeps the team from getting overconfident. Its very difficult to be undefeated and one loss right now relieves the pressure.

[ice-9]

There are no elite teams this year, and that includes Gonzaga and us. It's going to be a grind it out season where consistency and effort are paramount.

[ndkjr70]

Gonzaga is sorta like Clemson football. Clearly an elite team, but without a lot of strong competition to test just how good.

I disagree with this pretty strongly. Gonzaga has routinely gotten the benefit of a 1/2 seed despite playing in a poor talent truck stop conference and has rarely ever actually won anything of significance. Clemson, on the other hand...

I also think — this year aside, for being a truly terrible ACC year — clemson’s conference competition is much stronger than the WCC. And their nonconference games hold much more weight because they take up a greater percentage of their schedule.

[DUKIE V(A)]

College basketball on the whole is down this season, but it remains incredibly compelling to me. In terms of this Gonzaga team, it is one of the weakest they have fielded in recent memory. Not even close to last year’s team which IMO was one of the best in the country. Gonzaga remains talented and well coached, but it is more vulnerable than usual to being upset (even in the WCC).

[fisheyes]

Duke gains some #1 votes this week:

1. Gonzaga (54)
2. Duke (9)
3. Kansas (2)
4. Baylor

10. Fl. State

13. Louisville

18. UVa

unCheaters still in Hell

Saw the Pepperdine game and not impressed with Gonzaga

[Hartford Dukie]

Up to nine first place votes

1 Gonzaga (54) 1607

2 Duke (9) 1545

3 Kansas . (2) 1513

4 Baylor 1386

5 Auburn 1317

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings

[CameronBornAndBred]

SFA gets a vote.

[budwom]

Gonzaga barely scraped by two crappy teams this week, KenPom #260 Portland, and #166 Pepperdine....

[weezie]

Left coast teams are ppppbbbbtttttt!

[NYBri]

Gonzaga will be #1 for awhile. They play no one of consequence. 😎

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

Gonzaga will be #1 for awhile. They play no one of consequence. ��

Zags will play St Mary's twice and BYU twice. St Mary's is way better than a number of ACC teams. BYU beat VA Tech by 13 in Maui.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Zags will play St Mary's twice and BYU twice. St Mary's is way better than a number of ACC teams. BYU beat VA Tech by 13 in Maui.

A number of ACC teams are really bad. (Although I don't think St. Mary's is "way better" than many of them.)

[Hingeknocker]

A number of ACC teams are really bad. (Although I don't think St. Mary's is "way better" than many of them.)

Yeah, while it's true that the WCC is not a good conference, and if getting a 1-seed were the only consideration at play, I would absolutely trade places with Gonzaga to increase the odds of getting a 1-seed, people are overstating how bad the WCC is and how "easy" Gonzaga's path is.

Again, I would trade places with them (if only to get a 1-seed; for actual tournament preparation, I'd prefer to be in the ACC), but T-Rank can tell us the chances of Duke/Gonzaga to finish their conference seasons undefeated. We're at 3.2% to go 20-0, whereas Gonzaga is at 1.1% to go 16-0. And actually, BYU is currently projected by T-Rank to win the WCC!

[ndkjr70]

Yeah, while it's true that the WCC is not a good conference, and if getting a 1-seed were the only consideration at play, I would absolutely trade places with Gonzaga to increase the odds of getting a 1-seed, people are overstating how bad the WCC is and how "easy" Gonzaga's path is.

Again, I would trade places with them (if only to get a 1-seed; for actual tournament preparation, I'd prefer to be in the ACC), but T-Rank can tell us the chances of Duke/Gonzaga to finish their conference seasons undefeated. We're at 3.2% to go 20-0, whereas Gonzaga is at 1.1% to go 16-0. And actually, BYU is currently projected by T-Rank to win the WCC!

We've got a better chance to go 20-0 because we're a better team. I would guess Gonzaga's chances to go 20-0 in the ACC is 0.00%, rounding up.

It is true that the other top two teams in the WCC are currently pretty okay (Kenpom 29 and 30). So, Gonzaga will play four more games the rest of the season against top-30 teams. They then also play zero other teams in the top-100. The ACC, in a down year, has 14 of their 15 teams in the top-100. Miami, for example, would currently be the clear #4 team in the WCC.

If you think some people are underestimating the top-3 teams in the WCC, you might be right. But you're dramatically underestimating how much of a cakewalk they have for their other 12 non-BYU/SMC games on their schedule.

[Hingeknocker]

We've got a better chance to go 20-0 because we're a better team. I would guess Gonzaga's chances to go 20-0 in the ACC is 0.00%, rounding up.

It is true that the other top two teams in the WCC are currently pretty okay (Kenpom 29 and 30). So, Gonzaga will play four more games the rest of the season against top-30 teams. They then also play zero other teams in the top-100. The ACC, in a down year, has 14 of their 15 teams in the top-100. Miami, for example, would currently be the clear #4 team in the WCC.

If you think some people are underestimating the top-3 teams in the WCC, you might be right. But you're dramatically underestimating how much of a cakewalk they have for their other 12 non-BYU/SMC games on their schedule.

Oh, yeah, I absolutely think Duke is better than Gonzaga this year. Gonzaga is almost certainly going to get a 1-seed that they will not deserve one bit. Similar to when Kansas got one in 2018, and got to play a home game in the Elite 8 against a Duke team that should have been the one with the 1-seed, and Kansas was able to squeak by in overtime in said home game, and I attended that game in person with my son for the first Duke game of his life, and no I definitely am not still bitter. With any luck at all, teams with the profile of '20 Gonzaga will not be in the discussion for 1-seeds in some version of the improved future.

But really I was just responding to the notion that "Gonzaga is not going to lose because the WCC is so easy!" which seems to be pervasive here and elsewhere in the college basketball internet, and it's just not true.

[UrinalCake]

We are up to #2 in the NET behind Kansas. This is a significant jump; just a week or two ago we were still down at #8. Still some anomalies generates by the formula, but as of today we would be the #1 seed in the East (or maybe the South, I never know which is “better.”)

[Troublemaker]

We are up to #2 in the NET behind Kansas. This is a significant jump; just a week or two ago we were still down at #8. Still some anomalies generates by the formula, but as of today we would be the #1 seed in the East (or maybe the South, I never know which is “better.”)

East is better. We would play in our home away from home, Madison Square Garden.

Also, that's probably misuse of the NET, unless I'm reading you wrong. For example, SDSU is #3 in the NET and they would **not** be a 1-seed as of today. Duke **would** be a 1-seed but that's largely because of our wins over Kansas and MSU, not just because we're top-4 in the NET.

[JasonEvans]

that's probably misuse of the NET, unless I'm reading you wrong. For example, SDSU is #3 in the NET and they would **not** be a 1-seed as of today. Duke **would** be a 1-seed but that's largely because of our wins over Kansas and MSU, not just because we're top-4 in the NET.

I've said it before and will say it again... the NET is a lousy predictor of top seeds. It is a great tool for seeing which teams will form the bubble but, historically, the polls are a much better indicator of who will get #1 and #2 seeds.

[uh_no]

I've said it before and will say it again... the NET is a lousy predictor of top seeds. It is a great tool for seeing which teams will form the bubble but, historically, the polls are a much better indicator of who will get #1 and #2 seeds.

NET is only 1 year old, right?

[Nugget]

NET is only 1 year old, right?

True, but I think Jason's point also holds about prior usage by the Committee of RPI -- it was also less good as a predictor of Top 4 seeds than were the polls.

[arnie]

https://apnews.com/APTop25CollegeBasketballPoll

We fell to No. 3 behind Baylor - somewhat predicted

[atoomer0881]

So Baylor jumps Duke this week to #2, while we slide to #3.
https://apnews.com/APTop25CollegeBasketballPoll

No disrespect to Baylor as they are playing very, very well right now. But really don't understand how they jump us. It feels like straight up disrespect to Duke. Baylor went into #22 Texas Tech and won, as they should have. And they went into #4 Kansas and pulled off an "upset." When 4 beats 3, they can move to 3. We went on the road to Georgia Tech, who Kenpom rates as having the 25th best defense in the country, and pulled out a gutty win and then came home to play a crappy Wake Forest team and win by over 40 points. How do you justify dropping us? Especially when you read an article like this (great read btw) from one of the AP Voters (https://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2020/01/13/college-basketball-top-25-power-rankings-gonzaga-kansas-baylor-gonzaga-duke/), we are literally an overtime buzzer-beater away from being 16-0 (5-0) with a top 4 offense and defense on Kenpom and the largest scoring margin in college basketball (21.5 ppg). I feel like this team is continuing to quietly roll on all cylinders with absolutely no respect from the media. It honestly reminds me a lot of 2015 -- except rather than Kentucky getting all the praise, it's literally just every other top 5 team except Duke.

I know I probably sound ridiculous, because what's the poll really matter in January, but this just leaves such a sour taste in my mouth. Every two weeks there's a new flavor the moment (Michigan, Ohio State, Baylor) and Duke just keeps doing what it does best -- win. Though maybe I shouldn't really complain as I do like flying under the radar haha.

[uh_no]

https://apnews.com/APTop25CollegeBasketballPoll

We fell to No. 3 behind Baylor - somewhat predicted

it's kind of head scratching how the one loss is being treated. ESPN had an article the other day about how baylor is easily the best team in the country, which given the desparity in the computer numbers, is hardly indisputable.

Duke is unfortunatly punished right now due to the weak ACC....and MSU getting their doors blown off didn't help things. A win against UL this weekend would go a long way in helping prove that we're actually as good as the computers say, and hopefully finally drive the narrative away from SFA.

In any case, there's little doubt in my mind that Duke is being judged more harshly than they ought right now....especially given we're 5-0 with 3 30+ point wins.

[budwom]

Lying in the weeds among the top five is not a bad place to be...I couldn't really care less whether we are ranked 1, 2 or 3 as long as we keep winning.

[JasonEvans]

it's kind of head scratching how the one loss is being treated. ESPN had an article the other day about how baylor is easily the best team in the country, which given the desparity in the computer numbers, is hardly indisputable.

You cannot find a computer that has Duke lower than #3 or maybe #4 and the vast majority have us #1. Baylor is routinely #5-#8 and you can find several computers who have them outside the top 10.

But none of this matters. Duke would be a mortal lock to be a #1 seed in our preferred region if the tournament were today. Get past Louisville this weekend and it starts to become very difficult to come up with reasonable scenarios where Duke is not a #1 seed.

-Jason "Kansas, SFA, and Ga Tech are the only games we have played where the outcome was in doubt at all with 5 minutes to go, right? I'm trying to think if there were any others" Evans

[Troublemaker]

So Baylor jumps Duke this week to #2, while we slide to #3.
https://apnews.com/APTop25CollegeBasketballPoll

No disrespect to Baylor as they are playing very, very well right now. But really don't understand how they jump us. It feels like straight up disrespect to Duke. Baylor went into #22 Texas Tech and won, as they should have. And they went into #4 Kansas and pulled off an "upset." When 4 beats 3, they can move to 3. We went on the road to Georgia Tech, who Kenpom rates as having the 25th best defense in the country, and pulled out a gutty win and then came home to play a crappy Wake Forest team and win by over 40 points. How do you justify dropping us? Especially when you read an article like this (great read btw) from one of the AP Voters (https://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2020/01/13/college-basketball-top-25-power-rankings-gonzaga-kansas-baylor-gonzaga-duke/), we are literally an overtime buzzer-beater away from being 16-0 (5-0) with a top 4 offense and defense on Kenpom and the largest scoring margin in college basketball (21.5 ppg). I feel like this team is continuing to quietly roll on all cylinders with absolutely no respect from the media. It honestly reminds me a lot of 2015 -- except rather than Kentucky getting all the praise, it's literally just every other top 5 team except Duke.


It's probably more just disrespect of Stephen F Austin than of Duke. I've noticed weird human rankings of us all season since the SFA loss.

Even if it continues, no big deal. All that matters is that we are likely the #1 seed in the East region if the tournament started today. Hopefully that continues to be the case.

For me, it's all about Bracket Matrix, not the AP or coaches' polls.

[uh_no]

You cannot find a computer that has Duke lower than #3 or maybe #4 and the vast majority have us #1. Baylor is routinely #5-#8 and you can find several computers who have them outside the top 10.

But none of this matters. Duke would be a mortal lock to be a #1 seed in our preferred region if the tournament were today. Get past Louisville this weekend and it starts to become very difficult to come up with reasonable scenarios where Duke is not a #1 seed.

-Jason "Kansas, SFA, and Ga Tech are the only games we have played where the outcome was in doubt at all with 5 minutes to go, right? I'm trying to think if there were any others" Evans

georgetown was a bit of a nailbiter in the last minute....but that game was overshadowed by the next game...

Don't get me wrong, baylor has a heck of a team and resume, and duke is relatively untested recently compared to baylor.

[cakerace]

https://apnews.com/APTop25CollegeBasketballPoll

We fell to No. 3 behind Baylor - somewhat predicted

Which one of our sixteen missed free throws against Stephen Freakin Austin is now in the running for costliest FT of all time?

This sounds like a paraphrase of the old Cleveland State story: uNC looses at home to Clemson and the pollsters punish Duke for it!

[CameronBornAndBred]

Duke is unfortunatly punished right now due to the weak ACC.

And Gonzaga is rewarded for winning in the powerhouse WCC.

I'm ok with getting jumped by Baylor; they have a standout record with some excellent wins, but Gonzaga is going to irritate me 'til no end.

[kAzE]

Clearly, Gonzaga with it's #242 strength of schedule is the superior team, especially with their impressive 5 point win over Pepperdine at home. Crushing ACC teams by 40 on the road is way out of style.


Which one of our sixteen missed free throws against Stephen Freakin Austin is now in the running for costliest FT of all time?

Of all time? Seriously? Remember when we lost to Michigan State by 1 in the NCAA tournament . . . literally like 8 months ago? Come on, regular season rankings mean nothing.

[robed deity]

Clearly, Gonzaga with it's #242 strength of schedule is the superior team, especially with their impressive 5 point win over Pepperdine at home. Crushing ACC teams by 40 on the road is way out of style.



Settle down, there. Just about any free throw in the post season is worth 1000 times any regular season free throw.

I also think that that SFA loss might have been the closest thing to a "good" loss as there can be.

[UrinalCake]

A number of pollsters subscribe to the theory of “if the #1 team doesn’t lose, they will not drop from #1 no matter what.” I don’t particularly agree with this, but it’s a common philosophy. However, the same pollsters have no problem dropping a team from #2 to #3 without losing, which seems inconsistent to me.

Duke, Gonzaga, and Baylor all have a case for #1. Each has one loss. We have the best computer rankings but also the worst loss. Baylor has the most Q1 wins and is #1 in the NET. Gonzaga has the weakest strength of schedule but also the “best” loss.

I’m not going to sweat it too much; by the time March gets here we will have much more data to work with and a better case for who the #1’s should be.

[uh_no]

I also think that that SFA loss might have been the closest thing to a "good" loss as there can be.

how is SFA a good loss? Sure they're not the 250 ranked team people thought they were, but they're still outside the top 100 teams in the country.

This was the equivalent of duke losing to a 16 seed. At home.

I'm not sure I can see I can paint that as a good loss in any stretch.

[UrinalCake]

And Gonzaga is rewarded for winning in the powerhouse WCC.

Gonzaga and Duke each have three quadrant 1 wins. They only have one Q2 win while we have three. But their lone loss was against a good Michigan team (Q1) while ours was a Q3. I believe that if SFA is able to move up to 75 in the NET, it will become a Q2 loss. Currently they are 89.

Gonzaga’s overall SOS is weak and I do believe that we have the better resume. The pressure is on them to go undefeated in conference because if they do take a loss then it will be difficult to make up ground.

[OldPhiKap]

how is SFA a good loss? Sure they're not the 250 ranked team people thought they were, but they're still outside the top 100 teams in the country.

This was the equivalent of duke losing to a 16 seed. At home.

I'm not sure I can see I can paint that as a good loss in any stretch.

I assume the poster meant that the loss focused the team. At least that is how I read it.

[AGDukesky]

how is SFA a good loss? Sure they're not the 250 ranked team people thought they were, but they're still outside the top 100 teams in the country.

This was the equivalent of duke losing to a 16 seed. At home.

I'm not sure I can see I can paint that as a good loss in any stretch.

I took it as “good” in the sense of a wake-up call that got the team’s attention and resulted in more wins on the season- plus didn’t hurt conference standings or postseason chances. You can argue it might ultimately affect seeding if Duke loses a few more games, but other than the immediate embarrassment may not be very costly....

[robed deity]

how is SFA a good loss? Sure they're not the 250 ranked team people thought they were, but they're still outside the top 100 teams in the country.

This was the equivalent of duke losing to a 16 seed. At home.

I'm not sure I can see I can paint that as a good loss in any stretch.

I mean sure. But they've played and coached their butts off since and have made a few adjustments. Would it have been better to lose at Mich St? Or Kansas? Georgetown? I kind of like having those wins in the bank. Not sure I'd trade a conference loss either.

Or course you're right that it's a "bad loss" by any statistical measure, but it may not mean all that much in the long run, and it has sort of helped Duke fly under the radar, inasmuch as Duke can.

[uh_no]

I took it as “good” in the sense of a wake-up call that got the team’s attention and resulted in more wins on the season- plus didn’t hurt conference standings or postseason chances. You can argue it might ultimately affect seeding if Duke loses a few more games, but other than the immediate embarrassment may not be very costly...

I'm not sure I agree totally, as the team came out equally lackluster against an equally bad winthrop team, with the game tied 32-32 16 minutes in, and only a 4 point game with 9:30 to go, before pulling away slightly. Including the close game against GT the week earlier, many of us were very worried about the game against MSU. It's really starting at that game that we've played spectacularly.

[Hingeknocker]

This was the equivalent of duke losing to a 16 seed. At home.


It doesn't really matter, but I'm going to keep pushing back against this point as long as it's being made. SFA is miles better than a 16-seed. They just are. If they make the tournament - and they are definitely favorites to win their conference tournament - they will be a 13 or 14-seed. There is virtually no scenario in which SFA qualifies for the tournament and gets a 16-seed.

Now, it doesn't mean that losing to them wasn't a "bad loss." It just helps to calibrate that SFA is a lot better than some think they are.

[uh_no]

It doesn't really matter, but I'm going to keep pushing back against this point as long as it's being made. SFA is miles better than a 16-seed. They just are. If they make the tournament - and they are definitely favorites to win their conference tournament - they will be a 13 or 14-seed. There is virtually no scenario in which SFA qualifies for the tournament and gets a 16-seed.

Now, it doesn't mean that losing to them wasn't a "bad loss." It just helps to calibrate that SFA is a lot better than some think they are.

they lost at home last week to #292 Texas A&M Corpus Christi, and have lost by double digits to the other two potential tournament teams they've played. If they keep losing games like that, and then win their conference tournament, they could easily slip down to a 16. Gardner webb was ranked 163.

They're ranked 122 or so...lets look at the rankings of seeds from last year
13:73, 89,106,76
14:77, 96,113,124
15:161,137,126,152

13 seed seems way out of the picture. 14/15 is where they'd live today, depending on other AQ, and they could easily slip down to GW territory, given they've climbed to where they are.

Also note that the rankings given here will be artificially suppressed due to all those teams losing in the tournament. If anyone wants to download the pre-tourney data and dig it up, feel free.

In any case, it's totally plausible for SFA to slip down into the 160+ rank and end up as a 16, perhaps unlikely given what we've seen of them, but "virtually no scenario" is way too strong a statement.

And regardless if it is a 14, 15, or 16 seed, it's still a very bad loss for what we want to believe and the computers claim is the best team in the country.

[AGDukesky]

I'm not sure I agree totally, as the team came out equally lackluster against an equally bad winthrop team, with the game tied 32-32 16 minutes in, and only a 4 point game with 9:30 to go, before pulling away slightly. Including the close game against GT the week earlier, many of us were very worried about the game against MSU. It's really starting at that game that we've played spectacularly.

Understood but Winthrop was the next game so the team was in shock still and really pressing (and then Stanley gets injured on top of things). That one game hangover was the outlier.

[scottdude8]

FWIW, there are at least SOME of the talking heads/analysts I've heard recently who have stated the obvious: if it weren't for the SFA blip, this whole "there's no great teams this year" storyline would be for naught and Duke would be the consensus best team in the country. That said, I don't begrudge AP voters for punishing us for that: after all, they can't ignore that the event happened. The committee won't be able to either come March. But, as many have mentioned, the various respected computer metrics do seem to be showing some separation between us and the other top teams right now. Humans can and are obviously swayed by outliers; computers, not so much.

It's also worth remembering that the randomness of the ACC regular season schedule was kind to us this year: we only play Louisville and FSU once a piece, both at home. We also only play Virginia once, but on the road. If we take care of business and claim the No. 1 seed in the ACC Tourney, I think everything else will sort itself out quite nicely.

[CameronBornAndBred]

they lost at home last week to #292 Texas A&M Corpus Christi, and have lost by double digits to the other two potential tournament teams they've played. If they keep losing games like that, and then win their conference tournament, they could easily slip down to a 16. Gardner webb was ranked 163.

They're ranked 122 or so...lets look at the rankings of seeds from last year
13:73, 89,106,76
14:77, 96,113,124
15:161,137,126,152

13 seed seems way out of the picture. 14/15 is where they'd live today, depending on other AQ, and they could easily slip down to GW territory, given they've climbed to where they are.

Also note that the rankings given here will be artificially suppressed due to all those teams losing in the tournament. If anyone wants to download the pre-tourney data and dig it up, feel free.

In any case, it's totally plausible for SFA to slip down into the 160+ rank and end up as a 16, perhaps unlikely given what we've seen of them, but "virtually no scenario" is way too strong a statement.

And regardless if it is a 14, 15, or 16 seed, it's still a very bad loss for what we want to believe and the computers claim is the best team in the country.

FWIW, (debatabley not much) Lunardi has them as a 13.

[uh_no]

FWIW, (debatabley not much) Lunardi has them as a 13.

so a lock for a 15 then.

[DevilYouKnow]

how is SFA a good loss? Sure they're not the 250 ranked team people thought they were, but they're still outside the top 100 teams in the country.

This was the equivalent of duke losing to a 16 seed. At home.

I'm not sure I can see I can paint that as a good loss in any stretch.

Yes, but it’s way early in a season for a young team, that’s a huge difference from a 1 seed losing to a 16 in March.

[English]

so a lock for a 15 then.

And if they do get their AQ, their team sheet will likely list @DUKE in the notable wins column. That's bound to be meaningful to the human people who assign seeds. I suspect the other prospective 13, 14, 15, and 16 seeds will have less notable achievements to consider.

Caveat: obviously, still a lot of season left to play.

[Kedsy]

Also note that the rankings given here will be artificially suppressed due to all those teams losing in the tournament. If anyone wants to download the pre-tourney data and dig it up, feel free.

Pre-Tournament Pomeroy:

13-seeds: 75, 79, 80, 104
14-seeds: 82, 100, 111, 112
15-seeds: 129, 137, 145, 165

SFU is currently at #122, so between #14 and #15 sounds about right. Hard to say which way the committee would lean, though SFU does have that big Q1 win...

[ice-9]

Regardless of 13, 14, 15 or 16, a "dominant" and "elite" team wouldn't lose to SFA at home.

We're most likely a very good team that's currently top 1-3 in the country but can also lose to anyone in the tournament.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Regardless of 13, 14, 15 or 16, a "dominant" and "elite" team wouldn't lose to SFA at home.

We're most likely a very good team that's currently top 1-3 in the country but can also lose to anyone in the tournament.

Or... We're much better than we were six weeks ago

[OldPhiKap]

Or . . . We’re a dominant team that had a single slip. KenPom has us as the #2 offense, #4 defense, and #1 overall. TeamRankings has our schedule 3rd-hardest to date.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other

We are not perfect. But with the exception of one slip, we’ve been pretty dominant by and large.

[weezie]

Or... We're much better than we were six weeks ago


Bingo.

I have no problem since it give the chance to scoff...I love scoffing.

[ice-9]

Haha well....I guess I'm the glass half empty guy.

I do think this team's better self-identity is not one of an elite team expecting to roll over teams...this team IMO needs a blue-collar identity, playing hard on defense and accepting of roles in the offense.

[Indoor66]

Win games and all works out. Polls on 1/14 don't mean much.

[uh_no]

Win games and all works out. Polls on 1/14 don't mean much.

polls on any date don't mean much

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Haha well...I guess I'm the glass half empty guy.

I do think this team's better self-identity is not one of an elite team expecting to roll over teams...this team IMO needs a blue-collar identity, playing hard on defense and accepting of roles in the offense.

No one is suggesting our team ease up, but when you look at the results the last two weeks, what do you think would happen if SFA came to Cameron this coming weekend?

Our team didn't peak in December (thank God) as some of our previous squads seemed to. We're getting better on both ends of the floor, our leaders are emerging, and we've got the most balanced and deep roster most of us can remember.

I'm not saying we're going to run the table here, but if you don't see our team has it together better at this point in the season, we will have to agree to disagree.

[OldPhiKap]

polls on any date don't mean much

True. But it is a thread on polls . . . .

[CameronBornAndBred]

polls on any date don't mean much

They do on April 7th. :p:rolleyes:

[Indoor66]

They do on April 7th. :p:rolleyes:

That will not be a poll. 😎

[ice-9]

No one is suggesting our team ease up, but when you look at the results the last two weeks, what do you think would happen if SFA came to Cameron this coming weekend?

Our team didn't peak in December (thank God) as some of our previous squads seemed to. We're getting better on both ends of the floor, our leaders are emerging, and we've got the most balanced and deep roster most of us can remember.

I'm not saying we're going to run the table here, but if you don't see our team has it together better at this point in the season, we will have to agree to disagree.

Still think that though?

Don't get me wrong I love this team I just don't think it's dominant and elite like the 1999 and 2001 teams. This year's is a very good team that needs to play well and hard to win.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Still think that though?

Don't get me wrong I love this team I just don't think it's dominant and elite like the 1999 and 2001 teams. This year's is a very good team that needs to play well and hard to win.

Yeah, my post aged poorly.

99 and 01 are an awfully high bar.

[Hartford Dukie]

Still in top 10.

Louisville and FSU make big jumps. Louisville 6th in AP and 5th in Coaches. FSU 5th in AP, 6th in Coaches.

As one would expect, nobody else from ACC in top 25. Virginia only other team that even gets any votes.

AP - Baylor jumps ahead of Gonzaga
1 Baylor
2 Gonzaga
3 Kansas
4 San Diego State
5 Florida State
6 Louisville
7 Dayton
8 Duke
9 Villanova
10 Seton Hall

Coaches

1 Gonzaga
2 Baylor
3 Kansas
4 San Diego State
5 Louisville
6 Florida State
7 Dayton
8 Duke
9 Michigan State
10 Seton Hall

[bundabergdevil]

Still in top 10.

Louisville and FSU make big jumps. Louisville 6th in AP and 5th in Coaches. FSU 5th in AP, 6th in Coaches.

As one would expect, nobody else from ACC in top 25. Virginia only other team that even gets any votes.

AP - Baylor jumps ahead of Gonzaga
1 Baylor
2 Gonzaga
3 Kansas
4 San Diego State
5 Florida State
6 Louisville
7 Dayton
8 Duke
9 Villanova
10 Seton Hall

Coaches

1 Gonzaga
2 Baylor
3 Kansas
4 San Diego State
5 Louisville
6 Florida State
7 Dayton
8 Duke
9 Michigan State
10 Seton Hall

Apparently with Baylor’s ascension to number 1 in the AP there have been 7 different 1st place teams this season which ties for the most ever. The season is still pretty young so could break the record. Makes me excited for a wide open tournament!

[JasonEvans]

Apparently with Baylor’s ascension to number 1 in the AP there have been 7 different 1st place teams this season which ties for the most ever. The season is still pretty young so could break the record. Makes me excited for a wide open tournament!

With two losses last week by Butler, it would appear San Diego St and FSU are the most likely candidates to be #8. I am not sure SDSU's schedule will ever allow them to rise to the top and there are selfish reasons I don't want FSU to get there (because a win at Cameron is almost certain to be a part of FSU's potential #1 spot resume).

-Jason "my bet is that we don't find a 7th #1 team this season" Evans

[brevity]

Duke stays at #8 in the Coaches Poll (no one ahead of Duke lost last week), but moves down to #9 in the AP poll, leapfrogged by Villanova, who beat Butler and Providence.

What's weird is that if you look at the voting breakdown (https://collegepolltracker.com/basketball/team/duke-blue-devils/2019), more voters put Duke in their Top 10 than last week, and Duke gained ten points, from 1065 to 1084. Villanova just enjoyed a bigger increase, from 1055 to 1110. (This is despite one rogue voter (https://collegepolltracker.com/basketball/pollster/jesse-newell/2019/week-13) who has Duke #2 and Villanova #21.) This week they play at St. John's and then a home game vs. Creighton.

Keep an eye on #10 Seton Hall, who has a pair of home games against unranked DePaul and Xavier. There's a chance they jump Duke as well, even if Duke beats Pitt and Syracuse. Just behind them is #11 Oregon and #12 West Virginia, the latter of which can impress if they win at Texas Tech this week.

I don't know if poll voters feel better about the Big East or Big XII, but they seem to have noticed the ACC's off-year and have adjusted accordingly. Win or lose, Duke's Top 10 streak is at risk.

[brevity]

Duke stays at #8 in the Coaches Poll (no one ahead of Duke lost last week), but moves down to #9 in the AP poll, leapfrogged by Villanova, who beat Butler and Providence.

What's weird is that if you look at the voting breakdown (https://collegepolltracker.com/basketball/team/duke-blue-devils/2019), more voters put Duke in their Top 10 than last week, and Duke gained ten points, from 1065 to 1084. Villanova just enjoyed a bigger increase, from 1055 to 1110. (This is despite one rogue voter (https://collegepolltracker.com/basketball/pollster/jesse-newell/2019/week-13) who has Duke #2 and Villanova #21.) This week they play at St. John's and then a home game vs. Creighton.

Keep an eye on #10 Seton Hall, who has a pair of home games against unranked DePaul and Xavier. There's a chance they jump Duke as well, even if Duke beats Pitt and Syracuse. Just behind them is #11 Oregon and #12 West Virginia, the latter of which can impress if they win at Texas Tech this week.

I don't know if poll voters feel better about the Big East or Big XII, but they seem to have noticed the ACC's off-year and have adjusted accordingly. Win or lose, Duke's Top 10 streak is at risk.

As far as staying in the AP Top 10, things played out kind of ideally for Duke, seeing as how #12 West Virginia lost on Wednesday and #8 Villanova, #10 Seton Hall, and #11 Oregon all lost on Saturday. (As did #13 Kentucky, #14 Michigan State, and #16 Butler.) #15 Maryland, #17 Auburn and #22 LSU will move up significantly, but no one is jumping over Duke.

#5 Florida State was the highest ranked team to lose this week, so Duke might move up to #7.

[fisheyes]

Duke stays in Top Ten at #7. Seems fair...

1 Kansas (24-3)
2 Baylor (24-2)
3 Gonzaga (27-2)
4 Dayton (25-2)
5 San Diego State (26-1)
6 Florida State (23-4)
7 Duke (23-4)
8 Kentucky (22-5)
9 Maryland (22-5)
10 Creighton (22-6)
11 Louisville (23-5)

[Duke79UNLV77]

Duke stays in Top Ten at #7. Seems fair...

1 Kansas (24-3)
2 Baylor (24-2)
3 Gonzaga (27-2)
4 Dayton (25-2)
5 San Diego State (26-1)
6 Florida State (23-4)
7 Duke (23-4)
8 Kentucky (22-5)
9 Maryland (22-5)
10 Creighton (22-6)
11 Louisville (23-5)

I wonder when the last year was that 3 of the top 5 were from small conferences this late in the season?

[UrinalCake]

How long until idiot fans with zero context for what happened to other teams will start complaining that Duke lost to an unranked team and only dropped one spot?

[kAzE]

How long until idiot fans with zero context for what happened to other teams will start complaining that Duke lost to an unranked team and only dropped one spot?

I wouldn't argue if anyone said we should have dropped more. I thought the AP would drop us to 9 or 10. We had probably the worst loss of anyone in the top 10. Yes, NC State is a much better team than BYU or UNLV, but we lost by 22. That was a bad, bad loss.

We should still be on the 2 line for seeding, because one can reasonably anticipate that we'll climb back up the polls being favored in the rest of our regular season games, but the polls are weekly snapshot type of thing, so I'm actually surprised we're still #7.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

How long until idiot fans with zero context for what happened to other teams will start complaining that Duke lost to an unranked team and only dropped one spot?

We do have the head to head victory against the team ahead of us too

[robed deity]

I wouldn't argue if anyone said we should have dropped more. I thought the AP would drop us to 9 or 10. We had probably the worst loss of anyone in the top 10. Yes, NC State is a much better team than BYU or UNLV, but we lost by 22. That was a bad, bad loss.

We should still be on the 2 line for seeding, because one can reasonably anticipate that we'll climb back up the polls being favored in the rest of our regular season games, but the polls are weekly snapshot type of thing, so I'm actually surprised we're still #7.

Agree, and the advanced metrics would disagree with you about BYU. They are actually a pretty dangerous team, especially offensively.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Agree, and the advanced metrics would disagree with you about BYU. They are actually a pretty dangerous team, especially offensively.
And they were ranked 23 last week. Now 17. While NC state has 0 votes.

[Bluedog]

I wouldn't argue if anyone said we should have dropped more. I thought the AP would drop us to 9 or 10. We had probably the worst loss of anyone in the top 10. Yes, NC State is a much better team than BYU or UNLV, but we lost by 22. That was a bad, bad loss.

We should still be on the 2 line for seeding, because one can reasonably anticipate that we'll climb back up the polls being favored in the rest of our regular season games, but the polls are weekly snapshot type of thing, so I'm actually surprised we're still #7.

For whatever reason, poll voters seem to typically weigh outcomes the same whether the win (or loss) is by 1 or 20. Only on the fringes does it enter into their decision-making. Theoretically, barely beating the CHeats could have dropped us, but it didn't.

[jv001]

I wouldn't argue if anyone said we should have dropped more. I thought the AP would drop us to 9 or 10. We had probably the worst loss of anyone in the top 10. Yes, NC State is a much better team than BYU or UNLV, but we lost by 22. That was a bad, bad loss.

We should still be on the 2 line for seeding, because one can reasonably anticipate that we'll climb back up the polls being favored in the rest of our regular season games, but the polls are weekly snapshot type of thing, so I'm actually surprised we're still #7.

I thought the same thing about BYU until I watched them beat the Zags. And they were rated #23 before the win. I was impressed with that group of young men.

GoDuke!

[Kedsy]

I wonder when the last year was that 3 of the top 5 were from small conferences this late in the season?

You have to go back to 1987, when UNLV, DePaul (then an independent), and Temple were all in the top 5 on February 24.

February 21, 2006 was close, with Memphis and Gonzaga in the top 5 and George Washington #6. Only other years since 1987 that had even two such teams in the top 5 were 2004 (St. Joseph's and Gonzaga), 2000 (Cincinnati and Temple), and 1988 (Temple and UNLV).

[richmclean]

SFA receiving votes in AP and Coaches polls. Jus sayin’ ...

[JasonEvans]

I forget how long it is, but we have a pretty impressive streak of being in the Top Ten that is sure to end this coming week.

I would guess we will be down around #12.

I can sense an 11 game win streak though...

[brevity]

I forget how long it is, but we have a pretty impressive streak of being in the Top Ten that is sure to end this coming week.

I would guess we will be down around #12.

I can sense an 11 game win streak though...

According to page 4 of the PDF Pregame Notes (https://goduke.com/documents/2020/2/28//02_29_20_Virginia_.pdf) for the Virginia game, Duke has been in the Top 10 of 41 consecutive AP polls.

I'm of two minds on this subject. I don't think Duke deserves a Top 10 ranking (and I haven't for a while), but I can't name ten teams that definitely deserve it more. I felt darkly relieved that the streak would be over after losing 2 games this week, one to a really bad opponent, but now I wonder what will happen to #7 Duke when you also factor in losses by #6 Florida State, #9 Maryland, #10 Creighton, #11 Louisville, #12 Villanova, #15 Auburn, and #16 Penn State.

If we assume the Top 5 teams stay in the top 5 positions (with Baylor moving down somewhat), you can imagine a poll stringing along Duke in the Top 10 for another week:

6. Kentucky
7. Seton Hall
8. Florida State
9. Oregon
10. Duke
11. Maryland
12. Creighton
13. Louisville
14. BYU
15. Villanova

I know what you're thinking, and it looks wrong to me too. FSU at #8 looks about right, but not the rest of them. Kentucky #6? They're a 4 seed now, maybe a 3. Pollsters may have to stop blindly raising major conference teams that win out the week and start paying attention to likely seeding.

[OldPhiKap]

I'm of two minds on this subject. I don't think Duke deserves a Top 10 ranking (and I haven't for a while), but I can't name ten teams that definitely deserve it more.

this, in a nutshell.

[Tripping William]

Duke checks in at #12 in the AP poll today.

[robed deity]

this, in a nutshell.

Does anyone have an opinion on who might win this thing? Because I really have no idea this year.

[OldPhiKap]

Does anyone have an opinion on who might win this thing? Because I really have no idea this year.

I do not, for sure.

[Wahoo2000]

Does anyone have an opinion on who might win this thing? Because I really have no idea this year.

Yeah for sure - I could make a list and guarantee the national champion is on that list.


......it's ok if there are about 40 teams on the list, right?

[jv001]

Duke checks in at #12 in the AP poll today.

Another streak stopped this season. :cool::cool:

GoDuke!

[kAzE]

I do not, for sure.

Well, Kansas is the unanimous #1 team on the AP poll. They should probably be the betting favorite. Udoka Azubuike's been really good this year on both ends.

[Rich]

Another streak stopped this season. :cool::cool:

GoDuke!

I hate to say it because I really like this group of guys, but unless this team makes some significant noise in the tournament the 2019-20 team is going to go down in infamy with all of the streaks they ended. :(

[uh_no]

Does anyone have an opinion on who might win this thing? Because I really have no idea this year.

i don't have expectation that it will be us. i have hope, but not optimism.

[sagegrouse]

I hate to say it because I really like this group of guys, but unless this team makes some significant noise in the tournament the 2019-20 team is going to go down in infamy with all of the streaks they ended. :(

Let me suggest some ways to minimize the difficulties this season. "Home winning streak against unranked non-ACC opponents?" Just need to add -- "... decided in regulation.

Also, "Consecutive weeks in the Top Twelve."

Any others that worry you?

Kindly,
Sage
'I read Animal Farm as a boy'

[brevity]

I'm of two minds on this subject. I don't think Duke deserves a Top 10 ranking (and I haven't for a while), but I can't name ten teams that definitely deserve it more.


this, in a nutshell.

You know who else can't agree on ten teams that deserve it more? The AP poll voters. (https://collegepolltracker.com/basketball/)

This week they voted 20 different teams into their Top 10, including #21 Houston and #22 Virginia. The only ranked teams to appear in no poll voter's Top 10 were the second-tier Big Ten teams: #18 Iowa, #20 Penn State, #23 Illinois, #24 Wisconsin, and #25 Michigan.

Furthermore, they voted 20 different teams outside of their Top 10, starting with #6 Kentucky. So what you see a weird collection of very diverse opinion (despite having a unanimous #1 Kansas). It's how Maryland can stay #9 after losing to #24 Michigan State, but Michigan State moves up 8 places to #16 because they beat #9 Maryland.

[jv001]

You know who else can't agree on ten teams that deserve it more? The AP poll voters. (https://collegepolltracker.com/basketball/)

This week they voted 20 different teams into their Top 10, including #21 Houston and #22 Virginia. The only ranked teams to appear in no poll voter's Top 10 were the second-tier Big Ten teams: #18 Iowa, #20 Penn State, #23 Illinois, #24 Wisconsin, and #25 Michigan.

Furthermore, they voted 20 different teams outside of their Top 10, starting with #6 Kentucky. So what you see a weird collection of very diverse opinion (despite having a unanimous #1 Kansas). It's how Maryland can stay #9 after losing to #24 Michigan State, but Michigan State moves up 8 places to #16 because they beat #9 Maryland.

Pollsters love the Big Ten but love MSU even more. As for the Twerps, I hope they don't ever win another game unless they beat the cheats and I'm not so sure about that.

GoDuke!

[fisheyes]

Duke starts a new streak in the top 10 at #10.


1 Kansas (28-3)
2 Gonzaga (29-2)
3 Dayton (29-2)
4 Florida State (26-5)
5 Baylor (26-4)
6 San Diego State (30-2)
7 Creighton (24-7)
8 Kentucky (25-6)
9 Michigan State (22-9)
10 Duke (25-6)
11 Villanova (24--7)

Only 6 points separate #9-11.
Can't see why Michigan State is ahead of us, even now, but whatever.

[uh_no]

Can't see why Michigan State is ahead of us, even now, but whatever.

Because in the past month, they have 5 wins better than any we have against 1 loss that's a far better loss than any of the 3 we suffered.

You can't undersell how bad the ACC is this year, and how bad our losses are on paper.

[sagegrouse]

Duke starts a new streak in the top 10 at #10.


1 Kansas (28-3)
2 Gonzaga (29-2)
3 Dayton (29-2)
4 Florida State (26-5)
5 Baylor (26-4)
6 San Diego State (30-2)
7 Creighton (24-7)
8 Kentucky (25-6)
9 Michigan State (22-9)
10 Duke (25-6)
11 Villanova (24--7)

Only 6 points separate #9-11.
Can't see why Michigan State is ahead of us, even now, but whatever.

We have three wins over the top ten -- #1, #4, #10 -- no one else can say that. Plus, we beat ourselves a few times.

[DUKIE V(A)]

Because in the past month, they have 5 wins better than any we have against 1 loss that's a far better loss than any of the 3 we suffered.

You can't undersell how bad the ACC is this year, and how bad our losses are on paper.

Great points but three less losses and a head-to-head win on the road vs. MSU. I don’t see it nor do I see Kentucky or Creighton ahead of us either. I will admit I am biased. 😀

Honestly, I don’t think the BIG is that much better than the ACC — especially at the top.

[pfrduke]

47 teams receiving votes in the AP poll, including Stephen F. Austin as the #26 team, as well as teams like East Tennessee State, Northern Iowa, Liberty, Richmond, Vermont, and Belmont.

2016 was the last time there were this many teams receiving votes in the equivalent week's poll.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Great points but three less losses and a head-to-head win on the road vs. MSU. I don’t see it nor do I see Kentucky or Creighton ahead of us either. I will admit I am biased. 😀

Honestly, I don’t think the BIG is that much better than the ACC — especially at the top.

At the top, you are probably right. Both the B10 and the ACC have 3 teams in the top 15 according to KenPom (FSU, Duke, 'Ville; Mich St, OSU, Maryland). But that's where the similarities end.

In the top 40, the ACC still has only 3 teams. B10? 12 teams!!!

The B10 is muuuuuuch better than the ACC, and it isn't close this year.

[uh_no]

Great points but three less losses and a head-to-head win on the road vs. MSU. I don’t see it nor do I see Kentucky or Creighton ahead of us either. I will admit I am biased. ��

Honestly, I don’t think the BIG is that much better than the ACC — especially at the top.

It's not the top that's the issue. It's the 10-30 range, where the B10 has 9 teams, and the ACC has 1. Duke made some of those ACC teams look a lot better than they actually are (and other times, a lot worse)

[DUKIE V(A)]

At the top, you are probably right. Both the B10 and the ACC have 3 teams in the top 15 according to KenPom (FSU, Duke, 'Ville; Mich St, OSU, Maryland). But that's where the similarities end.

In the top 40, the ACC still has only 3 teams. B10? 12 teams!!!

The B10 is muuuuuuch better than the ACC, and it isn't close this year.

I am going by the eye test. Lol. Based on my eyes, I don’t think the BIG stands out — other than MSU. They are legit. The other teams are good but I don’t see them as legitimate threats to win the whole thing. I am sure the stats are better than my ACC colored eyeballs.

[Wahoo2000]

I am going by the eye test. Lol. Based on my eyes, I don’t think the BIG stands out — other than MSU. They are legit. The other teams are good but I don’t see them as legitimate threats to win the whole thing. I am sure the stats are better than my ACC colored eyeballs.

You're not alone - I visit all the more active ACC boards and there's a strong contingent of people who straight up refuse to believe what all of the advanced stats indicate. The B1G is absolutely GREAT this year - they don't have much in the way of elite/top5/title contenders, but they are rife with top 25-30ish teams.

The numbers say they are LIGHT YEARS ahead of the ACC - they could get 8-10 teams in the tourney. B1G is even well in front of the B12 and BE, who are again a cut above the ACC (who is basically neck and neck with the P12 this year - yuck).

It seems like the hardcore ACC fans have a bit of a case of "SEC football-itis" this year. By that I mean they have that "we're always the best or close to the best" mindset, which while *usually* true, is just WAY off this season.

[flyingdutchdevil]

You're not alone - I visit all the more active ACC boards and there's a strong contingent of people who straight up refuse to believe what all of the advanced stats indicate. The B1G is absolutely GREAT this year - they don't have much in the way of elite/top5/title contenders, but they are rife with top 25-30ish teams.

The numbers say they are LIGHT YEARS ahead of the ACC - they could get 8-10 teams in the tourney. B1G is even well in front of the B12 and BE, who are again a cut above the ACC (who is basically neck and neck with the P12 this year - yuck).

It seems like the hardcore ACC fans have a bit of a case of "SEC football-itis" this year. By that I mean they have that "we're always the best or close to the best" mindset, which while *usually* true, is just WAY off this season.

Yeah. The ACC has 3 tiers this year: 4 teams that could compete for a B10 title, 5 teams that would be bottom of the B10, and 6 teams - including UNC - that wouldn't be allowed to play in the B10 this year.

Folks rightly rip on the B10 year in, year out due to their underperformance in the dance. And this year, that may happen again. But let's not lie to ourselves that this conference is on par with the ACC; it's so much better.

[throatybeard]

We have three wins over the top ten -- #1, #4, #10 -- no one else can say that. Plus, we beat ourselves a few times.


Ademola Okulaja points don't move you up the poll.

[Duke79UNLV77]

Yeah. The ACC has 3 tiers this year: 4 teams that could compete for a B10 title, 5 teams that would be bottom of the B10, and 6 teams - including UNC - that wouldn't be allowed to play in the B10 this year.

Folks rightly rip on the B10 year in, year out due to their underperformance in the dance. And this year, that may happen again. But let's not lie to ourselves that this conference is on par with the ACC; it's so much better.

Yes, that's why the B10 smashed the ACC 11-3 in the Challenge this year. Wait, that didn't happen? It was just 8-6?

I agree the ACC is down and the B10 is deeper, but I don't buy that the gap is so chasmic that the #11 or 12 team in the B10 is clearly better than the #5 team in the ACC, which seems to be the general group think consensus. Or, that Duke should be ranked behind Mich State, despite 3 fewer losses and a dominating win at Mich State, not to mention the Kansas win on a neutral court.

[Skydog]

FWIW Kenpom has the median B10 team with a +17.4 AdjEM (meaning they would beat the ave DI school by 17pts on a neutral floor). After that are B12 & BE at +15.7 and +15.5 respectively. Third tier is P12 and ACC at 11.44 and 11.41. Very down year for ACC.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Yes, that's why the B10 smashed the ACC 11-3 in the Challenge this year. Wait, that didn't happen? It was just 8-6?

I agree the ACC is down and the B10 is deeper, but I don't buy that the gap is so chasmic that the #11 or 12 team in the B10 is clearly better than the #5 team in the ACC, which seems to be the general group think consensus. Or, that Duke should be ranked behind Mich State, despite 3 fewer losses and a dominating win at Mich State, not to mention the Kansas win on a neutral court.

Louisville finished 2nd in the ACC for the reg season. They beat Duke at Duke in the only game this year. They have 7 loses, which is only 1 more than Duke. And yet they are ranked 15 in the polls compared to 10 for Duke. Shouldn't they be ranked higher than Duke? And do we do the math so every team is ranked worse than Duke just to make ourselves feel better?

I'm not making the argument for MSU being ranked higher than Duke. But MSU tied for 1st in the B10 reg season. To me, that counts for a lot given the insanity that is the B10 this year.

[Wahoo2000]

Yes, that's why the B10 smashed the ACC 11-3 in the Challenge this year. Wait, that didn't happen? It was just 8-6?

I agree the ACC is down and the B10 is deeper, but I don't buy that the gap is so chasmic that the #11 or 12 team in the B10 is clearly better than the #5 team in the ACC, which seems to be the general group think consensus. Or, that Duke should be ranked behind Mich State, despite 3 fewer losses and a dominating win at Mich State, not to mention the Kansas win on a neutral court.

I'd look at the challenge as a small sample size. And I think the point is not that the #11 or 12 is clearly better than ACC 5, it's that the 5-9/10 are all clearly better than acc #5. That's a large chasm.

[Kedsy]

FWIW Kenpom has the median B10 team with a +17.4 AdjEM (meaning they would beat the ave DI school by 17pts on a neutral floor).

Actually that’s not what it means. It means 17.4 points per 100 possessions. Since the average game is about 68 possessions, a 17.4 means they would beat the average D1 school by approximately 11.8 points on a neutral floor. Minor point, perhaps, but I think worth mentioning.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Yes, that's why the B10 smashed the ACC 11-3 in the Challenge this year. Wait, that didn't happen? It was just 8-6?

I agree the ACC is down and the B10 is deeper, but I don't buy that the gap is so chasmic that the #11 or 12 team in the B10 is clearly better than the #5 team in the ACC, which seems to be the general group think consensus. Or, that Duke should be ranked behind Mich State, despite 3 fewer losses and a dominating win at Mich State, not to mention the Kansas win on a neutral court.

I mean, we all like the Big Ten Challenge, but the final record says more about how they figured the matchups than anything else.

[Kedsy]

Louisville finished 2nd in the ACC for the reg season. They beat Duke at Duke in the only game this year. They have 7 loses, which is only 1 more than Duke. And yet they are ranked 15 in the polls compared to 10 for Duke. Shouldn't they be ranked higher than Duke?

This is not a very good counter-example. Louisville finished tied with Duke for 2nd in the ACC, they have one more loss than Duke, and they are ranked worse than Duke in all the major computer rankings. The only thing they have over Duke is the h2h win (something they share with Stephen F Austin).

Duke vs Mich St is a lot closer call, which may make the h2h result more relevant ( though certainly not determinative).

[jhmoss1812]

I'd look at the challenge as a small sample size. And I think the point is not that the #11 or 12 is clearly better than ACC 5, it's that the 5-9/10 are all clearly better than acc #5. That's a large chasm.

The ACC also had way more turnover this year than in past years. This year's recruiting class is also not as high end as previous years. In addition, the top end recruits are more spread out this year. Thus, it's not surprising that the ACC struggled more than usual at the beginning of the year.

[devildeac]

Yes, that's why the B10 smashed the ACC 11-3 in the Challenge this year. Wait, that didn't happen? It was just 8-6?

I agree the ACC is down and the B10 is deeper, but I don't buy that the gap is so chasmic that the #11 or 12 team in the B10 is clearly better than the #5 team in the ACC, which seems to be the general group think consensus. Or, that Duke should be ranked behind Mich State, despite 3 fewer losses and a dominating win at Mich State, not to mention the Kansas win on a neutral court.

Simple answer from me: blame the cheats...

9F

[Duke79UNLV77]

Louisville finished 2nd in the ACC for the reg season. They beat Duke at Duke in the only game this year. They have 7 loses, which is only 1 more than Duke. And yet they are ranked 15 in the polls compared to 10 for Duke. Shouldn't they be ranked higher than Duke? And do we do the math so every team is ranked worse than Duke just to make ourselves feel better?

I'm not making the argument for MSU being ranked higher than Duke. But MSU tied for 1st in the B10 reg season. To me, that counts for a lot given the insanity that is the B10 this year.

If we had 3 more total losses than Louisville and they blew us out at our gym (as is the case between us and Mich State), then I would fully expect them to be ranked ahead of us.

[uh_no]

If we had 3 more total losses than Louisville and they blew us out at our gym (as is the case between us and Mich State), then I would fully expect them to be ranked ahead of us.

you're understating how bad our losses are, especially in the past month, and how good their wins are, especially in the past month.

[DukeWarhead]

you're understating how bad our losses are, especially in the past month, and how good their wins are, especially in the past month.

Even with all that, 3 more total losses simply can't be overlooked, regardless of a nice win at Maryland. That's just not enough.

[uh_no]

Even with all that, 3 more total losses simply can't be overlooked, regardless of a nice win at Maryland. That's just not enough.

neither can 4 losses outside the top 50 vs 1.

Duke's wins this week, despite being satisfying, are not particularly good wins. NCSU is #51, UNC is #84.

[Rich]

Even with all that, 3 more total losses simply can't be overlooked, regardless of a nice win at Maryland. That's just not enough.

The polls have always been, and will always be, clouded by recency bias and do not account for the whole season. The prior week is more important than the week before and so on. It's just the way it is.

[CDu]

neither can 4 losses outside the top 50 vs 1.

Duke's wins this week, despite being satisfying, are not particularly good wins. NCSU is #51, UNC is #84.

Depends on your metric. KenPom, for example, favors Duke over MSU. BartTorvik, on the other hand, gives MSU a slight edge.

[uh_no]

Depends on your metric. KenPom, for example, favors Duke over MSU. BartTorvik, on the other hand, gives MSU a slight edge.

No doubt, and I totally agree it's a close rank. My comments here are largely in opposition to those who seem offended that writers dare put someone like MSU in front of us after two wins against relatively mediocre teams absolve the 4 game stretch with 3 losses, two of them bad.

It shows two of the major biases that come up here: 1) duke/ACC centrism, and 2) recency bias.

We haven't won a top-50 game in a month, and have only won a single one in all of 2020. Heck, we only have three for the entire season. MSU has 4 in the past 4 games, and 12 overall.

Sure, As KP numbers demonstrate, duke and MSU are close, but pretending that MSU (or insert a few other teams) don't have some claim, if not a pretty darn good claim, to be ranked in front of duke (as some have suggested) is silly.

[Duke79UNLV77]

No doubt, and I totally agree it's a close rank. My comments here are largely in opposition to those who seem offended that writers dare put someone like MSU in front of us after two wins against relatively mediocre teams absolve the 4 game stretch with 3 losses, two of them bad.

It shows two of the major biases that come up here: 1) duke/ACC centrism, and 2) recency bias.

We haven't won a top-50 game in a month, and have only won a single one in all of 2020. Heck, we only have three for the entire season. MSU has 4 in the past 4 games, and 12 overall.

Sure, As KP numbers demonstrate, duke and MSU are close, but pretending that MSU (or insert a few other teams) don't have some claim, if not a pretty darn good claim, to be ranked in front of duke (as some have suggested) is silly.

Actually, Mich State may be lucky they aren't in the ACC since they are 0-2 against the conference this year, with home losses to Duke and Va Tech, which I assume is one of the many ACC schools that someone said wouldn't even be allowed to play gamed in the Big 10 this year because they're so bad. Again, I agree that the Big 10 is deeper, but don't think it has any great teams and I don't see the gap as quite as huge as many do. I also think there's a smaller gap than normal this year between the Power 5 conferences and several others.

Duke is hard to read in that we have some bad losses (SFA isn't that bad) and not as many huge wins as usual, but Kansas, Mich State, and FSU is as good of a trio as anyone has, and I don't think you can just ignore the fact that we've had so many 30+ point wins. Interestingly, how many other teams have a trio of wins as good as Clemson's over us, Ville, and FSU?

[brevity]

Duke starts a new streak in the top 10 at #10.


1 Kansas (28-3)
2 Gonzaga (29-2)
3 Dayton (29-2)
4 Florida State (26-5)
5 Baylor (26-4)
6 San Diego State (30-2)
7 Creighton (24-7)
8 Kentucky (25-6)
9 Michigan State (22-9)
10 Duke (25-6)
11 Villanova (24--7)

Only 6 points separate #9-11.
Can't see why Michigan State is ahead of us, even now, but whatever.

The AP released a final poll for the 2019-2020 season Wednesday. At least Duke ended up in the Top 10. Oh wait, we didn't. We swapped places with Villanova and ended up #11. (https://collegepolltracker.com/basketball/2019/final-rankings) The top 9 teams stayed put.

Meanwhile, the Coaches Poll (https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaab/polls/coaches-poll/2019-2020/2020-03-16/) released Monday moved us up to #8, ahead of Villanova, Creighton, and Michigan State.

[Truth&Justise]

The AP released a final poll for the 2019-2020 season Wednesday. At least Duke ended up in the Top 10. Oh wait, we didn't. We swapped places with Villanova and ended up #11. (https://collegepolltracker.com/basketball/2019/final-rankings) The top 9 teams stayed put.

Meanwhile, the Coaches Poll (https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaab/polls/coaches-poll/2019-2020/2020-03-16/) released Monday moved us up to #8, ahead of Villanova, Creighton, and Michigan State.

Odd that Duke and Villanova swapped places when neither team played any games after the last poll.