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DukieInBrasil
11-08-2019, 09:44 PM
Can't believe this didn't get started already.
Post your post-game thoughts here.
Duke wins by 34, covering the spread!

DukieInBrasil
11-08-2019, 09:50 PM
Good: Overall FG shooting, Tre Jones at PG, AOC shooting, Wendell Moore emerges, Cassius Stanley stays strong.
Meh: Rebounding, we were +9, but they shot so poorly that there were lots of boards to get. Hurt (9n5) & Carey (11n3), both were decent, but Carey fouled out. Bench production, where only Wendell was earned an A grade. Joey Baker made his season debut though! Going for 4 pts, 1 reb, and 2 stl.
Bad: 3FG shooting, 4-22 ain't good.
Ugly: Bench 3FG shooting, 0-8.

We didn't generate an ungodly number of turnovers, and forced a pretty mediocre team into a bad shooting night. It seems that Cassius Stanley, Tre Jones, and tonight Wendell Moore, were able to convert 2FGs very efficiently. That's nice.

NYBri
11-08-2019, 10:06 PM
Offense felt labored. Through my eyes, this looked the kind of game where we score 100.

CDu
11-08-2019, 10:08 PM
Through two games, Stanley is looking like a find. He is sooooo active on both ends of the court. Really good court awareness to go along with great athleticism.

Also nice to see O’Connell follow up his strong all-around game against KU with a strong performance tonight. His shot went down better tonight, but I was more pleased with his 6 defensive boards and two steals.

And the cherry on top was Moore getting it going in the second half. Hopefully this game helps build his confidence. If he can emerge and Stanley and O’Connell don’t disappear, that is a potentially terrific, versatile, active, and athletic trio of wings to rotate.

Goldwire went from the starting lineup to the “Tre backup” role, which is probably his long-term fit. Especially so if the wing trio sticks.

Jones was a stud. He didn’t hit a 3, but he did almost everything else. After a shaky preseason, it is nice to see him dialing it in now.

The frontcourt rotation was... interesting. Coach K benched the two frosh bigs to start the second half, and the two seniors came in and helped spark a defensive run. DeLaurier and White are so active and I could see a nightmare defensive lineup of those two, Moore, Stanley, and Jones at times. But I think we have an interesting mix and match quartet up front, each bringing a different valuable attribute to be used as needed. It will be fun to watch the chess match each night as Coach K tried to find the right matchups inside throughout the season.

What has been most interesting though is the aggressiveness of the team defensively. The guards and wings are REALLY getting after it. We don’t have the star power of last year’s team - obviously - but there is a blue collar, frenzied effort feel to this team. They don’t relent in the pressure. It will be interesting to see how teams handle that as the season goes on, as well as whether we sustain it or ease off. Especially if Coach K falls back into his usual habit of tightening the rotation later on.

Regardless, another fun win. Hopefully next week continues the trend!

Durham Blue Devil
11-08-2019, 10:37 PM
This is the third “game” I’ve attended at Cameron this season including Countdown and the second preseason game. I don’t need Kedsy to provide any defensive efficiency stats...excluding possessions with turnovers...including possessions with turnovers...it doesn’t matter. The team defense has been ELITE. It has been suffocating. This the hardest working most relentless defense I can remember in my time the past 12 years as a season ticket holder. They are fun to watch and it starts with Tre’s unrelenting ball pressure..

Obviously the offense has a ways to go and three point shooting remains a concern. Good win overall.

dukelifer
11-08-2019, 11:14 PM
Through two games, Stanley is looking like a find. He is sooooo active on both ends of the court. Really good court awareness to go along with great athleticism.

Also nice to see O’Connell follow up his strong all-around game against KU with a strong performance tonight. His shot went down better tonight, but I was more pleased with his 6 defensive boards and two steals.

And the cherry on top was Moore getting it going in the second half. Hopefully this game helps build his confidence. If he can emerge and Stanley and O’Connell don’t disappear, that is a potentially terrific, versatile, active, and athletic trio of wings to rotate.

Goldwire went from the starting lineup to the “Tre backup” role, which is probably his long-term fit. Especially so if the wing trio sticks.

Jones was a stud. He didn’t hit a 3, but he did almost everything else. After a shaky preseason, it is nice to see him dialing it in now.

The frontcourt rotation was... interesting. Coach K benched the two frosh bigs to start the second half, and the two seniors came in and helped spark a defensive run. DeLaurier and White are so active and I could see a nightmare defensive lineup of those two, Moore, Stanley, and Jones at times. But I think we have an interesting mix and match quartet up front, each bringing a different valuable attribute to be used as needed. It will be fun to watch the chess match each night as Coach K tried to find the right matchups inside throughout the season.

What has been most interesting though is the aggressiveness of the team defensively. The guards and wings are REALLY getting after it. We don’t have the star power of last year’s team - obviously - but there is a blue collar, frenzied effort feel to this team. They don’t relent in the pressure. It will be interesting to see how teams handle that as the season goes on, as well as whether we sustain it or ease off. Especially if Coach K falls back into his usual habit of tightening the rotation later on.

Regardless, another fun win. Hopefully next week continues the trend!
I was impressed. I agree that Stanley is a keeper- he is confident and has some capacity to create. AOC is going to be a different player this year. He is Duke’s best outside shooter and can drive if need be. He will need to be more consistent if this team is going to play well on O. Tre ran the show AND hunted his shot in the mid range- fine with that. The defense is disruptive and relentless. That is a good sign. They will hang their hat on D and the O while not great has potential. K may use everyone in the first half to wear down teams. Looking forward to seeing this young team develop.

rsvman
11-08-2019, 11:31 PM
I thought Moore looked generally better and more comfortable in this game than he did under the big lights in NYC.

Stanley reminds me a great deal of Gerald Henderson, and that's a good thing.

Jeffrey
11-08-2019, 11:40 PM
Surprised Stanley was substantially underrated and there were widely varied opinions of his game. He is lightning quick and fast, jumps through the roof, and is very smooth with the ball. Everyone should have known his speed and vertical. His HS always gets substantial attention.

Really looking forward to seeing how well Carey scores and passes when we start spending more time and energy feeding him the ball. He is going to get a lot of attention.

Kedsy
11-08-2019, 11:52 PM
Can't fairly compare a performance against Colorado State to one against Kansas, but here are the unadjusted numbers:

OFFENSE

Possessions: 76.5 (not too fast, not too slow)
oRtg: 1.16 (decent but not great)
eFG%: 56.5% (not bad)
3pt%: 18.2% (really, really bad)
2pt%: 70.2% (really, really good)
%threes: 31.9% (probably a little high for a team that shot so poorly, but acceptable)
FT rate: 26.1% (oddly low for a team who scored so many two-point baskets)
OR%: 25.7% (dreadful for the second straight game; could be a point of concern)
TO%: 11.8% (outstanding)
a/to: 1.55:1 (acceptable)
%assisted: 37.8% (kinda low)
fast break pts: 8 (9.0% of points; poor)

DEFENSE

dRtg: 0.72 (very good)
eFG%: 37.8% (also very good)
3pt%: 23.8% (ditto)
2pt%: 38.2% (ditto ditto)
%threes: 38.1% (if they're going to shoot poorly, I guess you don't mind that they jacked up so many)
FT rate: 40.0% (pretty bad for the second straight game; point of concern?)
DR%: 81.0% (outstanding)
TO%: 23.5% (good; not as good as against Kansas, but we may not hit 35% again this season)
a/to: 0.28:1 (incredibly low, which I guess is good)
%assisted: 27.8% (same)
stl%: 15.7% (good)
blk%: 10.9% (17.6% of 2pt shots) (strong)
fast break pts: 10 (18.2% of points; not so great for the second straight game; point of concern?)


So, level of competition several levels lower than our first game, but at least we had decent offense and a well-rounded defense. On D, other than free throw rate this was a very strong performance all around. On O, low turnovers and very high pct on 2-point shots, but somewhat bleh for pretty much everything else.

BlueDevil16
11-09-2019, 12:09 AM
Liking the team but we’ll have to find more outside shooting and Carey will have to play smarter. Funny how most of the recent Duke teams have been good on O or D but not both.

Kedsy
11-09-2019, 12:13 AM
Funny how most of the recent Duke teams have been good on O or D but not both.

In each of the past two seasons, Pomeroy has rated Duke in the top 10 in both offense and defense.

kAzE
11-09-2019, 02:27 AM
Echoing what others have said about Stanley. This guy can play, and it's still very early to speculate, but I'm starting to think he might be on the path to one and done. To come in and play that well against Kansas, and then follow it up with another strong effort, it's just really really impressive. He's 13 for 17 through 2 games right now. I wouldn't be shocked if he ends up leading this team in scoring. He clearly is capable of shouldering a bigger load on offense than he's being asked to right now.

But having said that, I also think Matthew Hurt is being underutilized as a scorer so far, as we are still figuring out the pecking order. I can't wait for him to have a huge 25+ point game. I know it's coming.

AOC is vastly improved in every way from last year. I was beginning to give up on him, but he's taken a big step forward.

Loved that Moore had a much better game than his first outing, but he also has 7 turnovers in 27 minutes through two games. He needs to take better care of the ball. I don't see him overtaking Stanley/O'Connell in the wing rotation in the short term.

Luckily, we have a pretty cupcake schedule in the non-conference this year, outside of our date with Michigan St. next month. That's going to allow our young players to round into form as we approach the ACC slate. Should be fun to watch this team grow together.

Music man55
11-09-2019, 07:08 AM
Defense looks great, offense a work in progress, but it'll get there.C.Stanley definitely the best of the freshmen so far.Vernon Carey needs to learn he can't be fouling out with eight minutes to go. But I'll take a 34 pt.win anytime,anywhere.

Troublemaker
11-09-2019, 07:20 AM
That was a very enjoyable way to be wrong about CSU +24 -- props to Chillin and English in the pregame thread for being right! I also suffered in the Degenerates league, which I've always felt is great for accountability. If we have to endure reading your bad opinion, you should receive punishment in some way when it turns out that you're wrong. And I did!

I knew it was going to be a blowout a couple of minutes in. Our ball pressure and denial were forcing CSU to start their sets so far out, but at the same time, CSU wasn't able to extract any price from us for playing that way -- very few or no successful backdooors, 1-on-1 drives, offensive rebounds, etc. Long-term, we'll have to see what happens when future opponents plan specifically to attack our pressure; I would say both KU and CSU mostly tried to run their sets instead. And also, as previously mentioned, we'll have to see if this team remains close to as fresh, athletic, and healthy in March/April as they are now. Theoretically, if Coach K continues playing a long rotation, that should help.

revmel53
11-09-2019, 07:24 AM
C S is the real deal... athleticism and desire... and isn't just an athlete. This team will find it's offensive self, but it's great to have the potential to have an elite defense. Go Devils!

uh_no
11-09-2019, 07:36 AM
nice to see two dynamic guards out there.

This team has all the tools....but still not totally sold on either of our first two games. not that the team owes convincing me or anything.

slower
11-09-2019, 08:32 AM
Echoing what others have said about Stanley. This guy can play, and it's still very early to speculate, but I'm starting to think he might be on the path to one and done. To come in and play that well against Kansas, and then follow it up with another strong effort, it's just really really impressive. He's 13 for 17 through 2 games right now. I wouldn't be shocked if he ends up leading this team in scoring. He clearly is capable of shouldering a bigger load on offense than he's being asked to right now.

But having said that, I also think Matthew Hurt is being underutilized as a scorer so far, as we are still figuring out the pecking order. I can't wait for him to have a huge 25+ point game. I know it's coming.

AOC is vastly improved in every way from last year. I was beginning to give up on him, but he's taken a big step forward.

Loved that Moore had a much better game than his first outing, but he also has 7 turnovers in 27 minutes through two games. He needs to take better care of the ball. I don't see him overtaking Stanley/O'Connell in the wing rotation in the short term.

Luckily, we have a pretty cupcake schedule in the non-conference this year, outside of our date with Michigan St. next month. That's going to allow our young players to round into form as we approach the ACC slate. Should be fun to watch this team grow together.

Stanley is definitely a huge, VERY pleasant surprise. He looks legit, so far.

AOC still seems under-confident of his ability, whereas Moore seems over-confident of his own ability. Moore looks like he may have potential "black hole" (get the ball and keep it) danger. We shall see.

I agree that Hurt seems poised to go off at some point. He was almost invisible last night.

Tre is Tre. Without him, we're not even close to a Top 10 team.

Javin is going to kill somebody this year. He's so out of control.

Carey will be okay, but he's not Okafor or Wendell Carter.

ncexnyc
11-09-2019, 08:43 AM
I know Tre came up super clutch in the KU game, but I felt his decision making was a bit shaky. I think last night he played a better overall game.

Looks like we have two foul magnets playing the 5 this year. Hopefully Vernon will ease up on those cheap fouls he's been picking up so far.

Alex has looked very good so far, maybe it's the extra year or it's the fact that there isn't anyone looking over his shoulder and the job is his to lose.

All in all a very nice game with everyone getting some solid playing time.

jipops
11-09-2019, 08:50 AM
Can't fairly compare a performance against Colorado State to one against Kansas, but here are the unadjusted numbers:

OFFENSE

Possessions: 76.5 (not too fast, not too slow)
oRtg: 1.16 (decent but not great)
eFG%: 56.5% (not bad)
3pt%: 18.2% (really, really bad)
2pt%: 70.2% (really, really good)
%threes: 31.9% (probably a little high for a team that shot so poorly, but acceptable)
FT rate: 26.1% (oddly low for a team who scored so many two-point baskets)
OR%: 25.7% (dreadful for the second straight game; could be a point of concern)
TO%: 11.8% (outstanding)
a/to: 1.55:1 (acceptable)
%assisted: 37.8% (kinda low)
fast break pts: 8 (9.0% of points; poor)

DEFENSE

dRtg: 0.72 (very good)
eFG%: 37.8% (also very good)
3pt%: 23.8% (ditto)
2pt%: 38.2% (ditto ditto)
%threes: 38.1% (if they're going to shoot poorly, I guess you don't mind that they jacked up so many)
FT rate: 40.0% (pretty bad for the second straight game; point of concern?)
DR%: 81.0% (outstanding)
TO%: 23.5% (good; not as good as against Kansas, but we may not hit 35% again this season)
a/to: 0.28:1 (incredibly low, which I guess is good)
%assisted: 27.8% (same)
stl%: 15.7% (good)
blk%: 10.9% (17.6% of 2pt shots) (strong)
fast break pts: 10 (18.2% of points; not so great for the second straight game; point of concern?)


So, level of competition several levels lower than our first game, but at least we had decent offense and a well-rounded defense. On D, other than free throw rate this was a very strong performance all around. On O, low turnovers and very high pct on 2-point shots, but somewhat bleh for pretty much everything else.

I think the offensive rebounding is really an even bigger concern than the 3pt shooting. This team is simply not going to be a good 3pt team this season, much like last season. The shooters just aren't there. But only getting one shot per possession is what really gets us in big trouble down the road. That's where we offset our terrible 3pt% last season. I hope this is a point of emphasis in practice going forward or there could be some nail biting going on as we get into the meat of the season.

lotusland
11-09-2019, 08:51 AM
Surprised Stanley was substantially underrated and there were widely varied opinions of his game. He is lightning quick and fast, jumps through the roof, and is very smooth with the ball. Everyone should have known his speed and vertical. His HS always gets substantial attention.

Really looking forward to seeing how well Carey scores and passes when we start spending more time and energy feeding him the ball. He is going to get a lot of attention.

Yeah Zion and Stanley were both late commits that I vastly underestimated and assumed they would provide some sizzle but not key contributions. As Chuck Berry sang, “Goes to show you never can tell.”

accfanfrom1970
11-09-2019, 10:20 AM
Free throw shooting % is my biggest concern. I long for the days of 75% and higher for the team.

Native
11-09-2019, 11:17 AM
Stanley reminds me a great deal of Gerald Henderson, and that's a good thing.

I see shades of Rasheed Sulaimon, off-court behavior notwithstanding. (Also intended as a compliment.)

Jeffrey
11-09-2019, 01:00 PM
Carey will be okay, but he's not Okafor or Wendell Carter.

I definitely think Carey will be better than okay and be in Carter’s overall league. It appears D has been the strong initial focus and feeding Carey will be addressed later.

I’m glad he’s not Okafor. Okafor’s D was pathetic and would have materially hurt this team’s level of D.

LasVegas
11-09-2019, 01:16 PM
I definitely think Carey will be better than okay and be in Carter’s overall league. It appears D has been the strong initial focus and feeding Carey will be addressed later.

I’m glad he’s not Okafor. Okafor’s D was pathetic and would have materially hurt this team’s level of D.

I agree. He’s averaging 22 points, 9 boards, and 4 blocks per 40 minutes. What more do we want besides him fouling less and getting more minutes?

Kedsy
11-09-2019, 02:32 PM
Free throw shooting % is my biggest concern. I long for the days of 75% and higher for the team.

You mean 2017?

slower
11-09-2019, 02:51 PM
I definitely think Carey will be better than okay and be in Carter’s overall league. It appears D has been the strong initial focus and feeding Carey will be addressed later.

I’m glad he’s not Okafor. Okafor’s D was pathetic and would have materially hurt this team’s level of D.

Yeah, good point. Carey was actually quicker than I thought he'd be on defense.

UrinalCake
11-09-2019, 03:29 PM
Lots of little positives to take from the game. If our ultimate goal is to show steady improvement across our balanced roster throughout the course of the season, then this game was one encouraging step. Tre has established the short pull-up jumper and is getting pretty comfortable with it, which is nice to have in his arsenal. I know midrange shots are bad according to the analytics, but for him I feel it’s often a better shot than trying to get all the way to the rim (which he also did pretty effectively). Love Alex’s play, we tend to focus on his threes but he is attacking the basket and making good decisions with the ball. Last season he often went for flashy behind-the-back type stuff but this season he has been much more fundamentally sound.

Stanley continues to impress, I saw on another site someone mentioned that Boogie Ellis made six three in the first half of their game, While it would be great to have that kind of shooting, I think Stanley fits the DNA of this team much better so I’m glad we ended up with him instead.

Javin didn’t have a great game but he did have a couple nice plays so that was good. Overall I think our team is focusing so much on defense that our offensive flow has suffered, but that’s ok at this point in the season and preferable over the reverse being true. It felt to me while watching the game that we were being kind of loose with the ball, but our turnover stats disagree so I won’t worry about that.

Jeffrey
11-09-2019, 03:48 PM
Yeah, good point. Carey was actually quicker than I thought he'd be on defense.

I’m having similar reactions. Many players are exceeding my initial expectations. I loved last year’s team (especially, Zion and R.J.) but this year’s may win more in March.

accfanfrom1970
11-09-2019, 04:00 PM
You mean 2017?

Let me rephrase - I long for the days when the team had 3-4 knock down free throw shooters, 80-85%. Money from the line. You knew when Grayson or Luke, Quinn or Tyus went to the line they were going to make it. Back in the day - Christian or Bobby. I don't think we've had that the last couple of years. Seems like free throws are an adventure...

ChillinDuke
11-09-2019, 04:06 PM
A very nice step (game) on this year's journey.

I didn't see a single player on the roster that I thought looks particularly unqualified to play. Everyone seems reasonably playable (pre-Buckmire on the pecking order. There depth is important when inevitably some guys miss time.

People talking about this team having future nailbiters. Duhhh. That's a given in any season, even last season, multiple times. So I'm not sure why we should pay heightened attention to that this season. The team is good but it's incredibly rare to have a transcendent team just crush almost everyone in their path. I actually welcome the early indications that this is a balanced and versatile, if skill-wise still unclear, team.

Tre has yet to hit a 3 through 4 games (including preseason). That's not good. And something I really don't like seeing. But other than that he's been largely what we hoped for. It all starts with him on both sides.

Cassius and AOC are the two players surprising to the upside thus far for me. And in different ways. Which is awesome to see. It's early but I very much have my eye on them.

I'm not worried about Carey or Hurt. They look solid already and will only get better. I actually like that they aren't black holes and are being selective with their shots. It seems having Javin and White gives them a leash that to my eye appears helpful in tempering their zeal. I think we will increase their usage (and our reliance on them) as we go. But easing in freshman bigs is a welcome luxury.

Moore is looking a little like early Tatum or early Reddish to me. Forcing at times and the ball is sticking. The question is which trajectory he stays on. Could be the most important question of all, if it plays out in such a binary we. (Spoiler: it won't.)

Goldwire is still a nice backup to have. I have no issue with him playing minutes nightly and potentially increased minutes in an injury scenario. He's fine out there. People expecting big things or big offense or heavy usage from him are in la la land.

Baker is still a question mark. I want to say he looks fine out there, but that's being slightly generous. Need to see a bit more out of him against a team that isn't CSU facing a 30-point deficit.

Duke's 3pt shooting is of concern at the moment. But I will remind everyone that the 3pt line moved from 20'9" to 22'1.75" this season, a not insignificant increase. I imagine 3pt% has fallen nationwide (although I've done no research on the matter). Nonetheless we need to convert at a better clip, but I am taking some solace in the assumption that everyone is dealing with some lower percentages. Hopefully.

A lot to like. Keep building.

- Chillin

HereBeforeCoachK
11-09-2019, 05:32 PM
Let me rephrase - I long for the days when the team had 3-4 knock down free throw shooters, 80-85%. Money from the line. You knew when Grayson or Luke, Quinn or Tyus went to the line they were going to make it. Back in the day - Christian or Bobby. I don't think we've had that the last couple of years. Seems like free throws are an adventure...

...and traditionally one of those was your point guard.......or anyone who was a coaches son......maybe the grand kid can do it.

Troublemaker
11-10-2019, 08:45 PM
Echoing what others have said about Stanley. This guy can play, and it's still very early to speculate, but I'm starting to think he might be on the path to one and done. To come in and play that well against Kansas, and then follow it up with another strong effort, it's just really really impressive. He's 13 for 17 through 2 games right now. I wouldn't be shocked if he ends up leading this team in scoring. He clearly is capable of shouldering a bigger load on offense than he's being asked to right now.

I'm pretty optimistic at this point that we're going to keep him for another year. So far, Cassius has shown to be a good defender and a guy who can take it to the bucket and finish, but his offense would have to expand for me to become concerned* about him leaving. The most logical reason why he's reluctant to shoot from outside is because he can't shoot, and so where does an athletic but non-shooting wing without point guard skills go? Probably not even the high second-round, imo.

* To be clear, if Cassius all of a sudden shows that he's a good shooter, I'd be elated because it would improve our chances at a national title.



Stanley continues to impress, I saw on another site someone mentioned that Boogie Ellis made six three in the first half of their game, While it would be great to have that kind of shooting, I think Stanley fits the DNA of this team much better so I’m glad we ended up with him instead.

Most likely, Boogie and Cassius would be starting together alongside Tre, imo. Duke did want them both and for a short time, we did have them both committed. Boogie's shooting would've been awesome to add to this team.


I think the offensive rebounding is really an even bigger concern than the 3pt shooting. This team is simply not going to be a good 3pt team this season, much like last season. The shooters just aren't there. But only getting one shot per possession is what really gets us in big trouble down the road. That's where we offset our terrible 3pt% last season. I hope this is a point of emphasis in practice going forward or there could be some nail biting going on as we get into the meat of the season.

Both 3-pt shooting and offensive rebounding will increase from current levels. That said, I'm as dubious of this team becoming very good at offensive rebounding as you are of it becoming very good at shooting 3s. I mean, afterall, we're going to play a lot of three guards and a stretch 4 (by definition someone who's outside the paint more often than a non-shooting 4), so I think being average at O-rebounding is what I'd expect.

That does raise an interesting stat nerd question. Which of the "4 Factors" can we expect to be really good at offensively? What's the pathway to being a top-10 offense at the end of the season?

Kedsy
11-10-2019, 11:23 PM
That does raise an interesting stat nerd question. Which of the "4 Factors" can we expect to be really good at offensively? What's the pathway to being a top-10 offense at the end of the season?

Low turnovers is the only reasonable possibility.

SkyBrickey
11-11-2019, 08:07 AM
Posted this in another thread. I was at the game Friday night and had the opportunity to watch the guys in shoot around. Stanley has a very nice looking outside stroke. Perfect form. His misses were good misses landing softly on the rim. Teams have to respect his driving ability, so I think he’s got the potential to lead this team in scoring if he can start knocking down 3s.

Troublemaker
11-11-2019, 09:40 AM
Posted this in another thread. I was at the game Friday night and had the opportunity to watch the guys in shoot around. Stanley has a very nice looking outside stroke. Perfect form. His misses were good misses landing softly on the rim. Teams have to respect his driving ability, so I think he’s got the potential to lead this team in scoring if he can start knocking down 3s.

Unfortunately, someone else who was at the game reported that Tre looks great shooting in shootaround. I'm sure Jack White looks great in shootaround, too. It's just different in game conditions, as you know.

I'm skeptical. As recently as the summer of 2018, Cassius was 59.8% on FTs and 25.6% on 3s in EYBL (https://www.d1circuit.com/roster_players/24357687) (with a shorter 3-pt line, to boot). The good news is that he had a lot of FT attempts.

phaedrus
11-11-2019, 09:45 AM
Low turnovers is the only reasonable possibility.

I think we could hit a lot of free throws. Unfortunately, I think we will also miss a lot of free throws.

SkyBrickey
11-11-2019, 10:07 AM
Unfortunately, someone else who was at the game reported that Tre looks great shooting in shootaround. I'm sure Jack White looks great in shootaround, too. It's just different in game conditions, as you know.

I'm skeptical. As recently as the summer of 2018, Cassius was 59.8% on FTs and 25.6% on 3s in EYBL (https://www.d1circuit.com/roster_players/24357687) (with a shorter 3-pt line, to boot). The good news is that he had a lot of FT attempts.

Actually I didn't think Tre or Jack or Wendell looked good in shoot around from 3. Unorthodox mechanics - not always good rotation on the ball. All the great shooters - at Duke this includes guys like Reddick and Trajan Langdon and Andre Dawkins - all release the ball with one hand, with a tucked elbow and with good rotation on the ball - just like Stanley (and like AOC and Joey Baker Beard). I'm really shocked at those EYBL numbers based on what I watched. Just one man's observation...

SkyBrickey
11-11-2019, 10:14 AM
Actually I didn't think Tre or Jack or Wendell looked good in shoot around from 3. Unorthodox mechanics - not always good rotation on the ball. All the great shooters - at Duke this includes guys like Reddick and Trajan Langdon and Andre Dawkins - all release the ball with one hand, with a tucked elbow and with good rotation on the ball - just like Stanley (and like AOC and Joey Baker Beard). I'm really shocked at those EYBL numbers based on what I watched. Just one man's observation...

It's a micro-sample I know, but Stanley is 2-3 on 3-pointers and 7-11 from the line through 2 exhibition games and 2 regular season games.

DukieInBrasil
11-11-2019, 10:21 AM
Posted this in another thread. I was at the game Friday night and had the opportunity to watch the guys in shoot around. Stanley has a very nice looking outside stroke. Perfect form. His misses were good misses landing softly on the rim. Teams have to respect his driving ability, so I think he’s got the potential to lead this team in scoring if he can start knocking down 3s.

he's already leading the team in scoring, while shooting only 1 3 per game, hitting 1 of 2. Hitting 1 3 every other game might be enough to keep defenses honest, anyway. We're only 2 games in, but the signs are good so far.

flyingdutchdevil
11-11-2019, 10:31 AM
A very nice step (game) on this year's journey.

I didn't see a single player on the roster that I thought looks particularly unqualified to play. Everyone seems reasonably playable (pre-Buckmire on the pecking order. There depth is important when inevitably some guys miss time.

People talking about this team having future nailbiters. Duhhh. That's a given in any season, even last season, multiple times. So I'm not sure why we should pay heightened attention to that this season. The team is good but it's incredibly rare to have a transcendent team just crush almost everyone in their path. I actually welcome the early indications that this is a balanced and versatile, if skill-wise still unclear, team.

Tre has yet to hit a 3 through 4 games (including preseason). That's not good. And something I really don't like seeing. But other than that he's been largely what we hoped for. It all starts with him on both sides.

Cassius and AOC are the two players surprising to the upside thus far for me. And in different ways. Which is awesome to see. It's early but I very much have my eye on them.

I'm not worried about Carey or Hurt. They look solid already and will only get better. I actually like that they aren't black holes and are being selective with their shots. It seems having Javin and White gives them a leash that to my eye appears helpful in tempering their zeal. I think we will increase their usage (and our reliance on them) as we go. But easing in freshman bigs is a welcome luxury.

Moore is looking a little like early Tatum or early Reddish to me. Forcing at times and the ball is sticking. The question is which trajectory he stays on. Could be the most important question of all, if it plays out in such a binary we. (Spoiler: it won't.)

Goldwire is still a nice backup to have. I have no issue with him playing minutes nightly and potentially increased minutes in an injury scenario. He's fine out there. People expecting big things or big offense or heavy usage from him are in la la land.

Baker is still a question mark. I want to say he looks fine out there, but that's being slightly generous. Need to see a bit more out of him against a team that isn't CSU facing a 30-point deficit.

Duke's 3pt shooting is of concern at the moment. But I will remind everyone that the 3pt line moved from 20'9" to 22'1.75" this season, a not insignificant increase. I imagine 3pt% has fallen nationwide (although I've done no research on the matter). Nonetheless we need to convert at a better clip, but I am taking some solace in the assumption that everyone is dealing with some lower percentages. Hopefully.

A lot to like. Keep building.

- Chillin

Nice review.

I want to highlight a few points:

-Tre is an atrocious 3pt shooter. In four games, he's 0-13. Hell, if he made 2-13, it would still be very bad. I think we have to accept this is the only negative part of Tre's game. He's really good-to-great at nearly everything else (mid-range, driving, ball protection, steals, defense, passing, etc). But he is downright awful at 3pt shooting. Which means he needs teammates who can shoot.

-And speaking of shooting, I love the starting line-up. It's balanced and could only be achieved if a) AOC improved greatly from sophomore to junior year (check) and b) Stanley is better than advertised (check). AOC is our best 3pt shooter, and I don't think it's close at this point. Stanley is an opportunist and looks to be an okay 3pt shooter (and maybe even good). Hurt and Carey aren't as productive as advertised, but I think it will just take a little time.

-Our "core" rotation looks to be Tre, AOC, Stanley, Hurt, Carey, White, Javin, and Moore. Goldwire and, to a lesser extent, Baker are in there right now, but I think the more Goldwire and Baker play, the lower our ceiling will be. Goldwire is a very, very one dimensional player (one ball defense) and Baker is a shooter with a bunch of liabilities. The more they play, the more the "core's" defense and/or shooting is really, really struggling.

SkyBrickey
11-11-2019, 12:41 PM
I think the 8 man core with Jordan available to give Tre a breather or bring defensive energy and maybe Joey available as a designated zone buster feels right. 4 of the 5 starters should all shoot 33%+ from 3 - not including Tre in that group unless he suddenly discovers his shot.

kAzE
11-11-2019, 05:08 PM
I'm pretty optimistic at this point that we're going to keep him for another year. So far, Cassius has shown to be a good defender and a guy who can take it to the bucket and finish, but his offense would have to expand for me to become concerned* about him leaving. The most logical reason why he's reluctant to shoot from outside is because he can't shoot, and so where does an athletic but non-shooting wing without point guard skills go? Probably not even the high second-round, imo.

* To be clear, if Cassius all of a sudden shows that he's a good shooter, I'd be elated because it would improve our chances at a national title.


Are we sure he's reluctant shoot? I don't recall any specific instance thus far where he's been left wide open and he hesitated to take the shot. I think he's just taken what the defense has given him. He didn't hesitate one bit on that 3 pointer at the end of the Kansas game. That was a big time shot, which he took with confidence.

I'm not going to judge whether he's a good or bad shooter with this sample size, but he certainly hasn't proven he's a bad shooter yet. He just hasn't taken lots of threes, and rightfully so, given his ability to get in the paint and either score the bucket or get to the foul line. Speaking of which, his form and stroke at the free throw line has been pretty good, and he's getting to the stripe consistently. These are very positive signs of a guy who we can rely on as a scorer. We will see whether or not his 3 ball is consistent.

roywhite
11-11-2019, 05:51 PM
Are we sure he's reluctant shoot? I don't recall any specific instance thus far where he's been left wide open and he hesitated to take the shot. I think he's just taken what the defense has given him. He didn't hesitate one bit on that 3 pointer at the end of the Kansas game. That was a big time shot, which he took with confidence.

I'm not going to judge whether he's a good or bad shooter with this sample size, but he certainly hasn't proven he's a bad shooter yet. He just hasn't taken lots of threes, and rightfully so, given his ability to get in the paint and either score the bucket or get to the foul line. Speaking of which, his form and stroke at the free throw line has been pretty good, and he's getting to the stripe consistently. These are very positive signs of a guy who we can rely on as a scorer. We will see whether or not his 3 ball is consistent.

Stanley is 13-17 from the field, including 1-2 from 3-point. He's shooting 76.5% which is very good start for a guy 2 games into his college career. And, yeah, dunks help a shooting percentage, but that's okay.

Troublemaker
11-12-2019, 12:00 PM
Are we sure he's reluctant shoot? I don't recall any specific instance thus far where he's been left wide open and he hesitated to take the shot. I think he's just taken what the defense has given him. He didn't hesitate one bit on that 3 pointer at the end of the Kansas game. That was a big time shot, which he took with confidence.

No doubt the shot against KU was huge, but I think taking only 3 three-pt attempts in 4.5 games (if we count CTC as a half game) combined with his EYBL stats referenced above speaks for itself. Your mileage may vary on that.



I'm not going to judge whether he's a good or bad shooter with this sample size, but he certainly hasn't proven he's a bad shooter yet. He just hasn't taken lots of threes, and rightfully so, given his ability to get in the paint and either score the bucket or get to the foul line. Speaking of which, his form and stroke at the free throw line has been pretty good, and he's getting to the stripe consistently. These are very positive signs of a guy who we can rely on as a scorer. We will see whether or not his 3 ball is consistent.

Yeah, but he's only hit 5 of 8 FT attempts so far. I like him a lot, as mentioned, but I just doubt that he can shoot.

If it helps, this guy on youtube shows some of Cassius' inconsistency in high school from long range: https://youtu.be/lda1Jtr5koU?t=274 . I've primed the video to 4:34 when the discussion of his shooting struggles begins.

COYS
11-12-2019, 02:06 PM
No doubt the shot against KU was huge, but I think taking only 3 three-pt attempts in 4.5 games (if we count CTC as a half game) combined with his EYBL stats referenced above speaks for itself. Your mileage may vary on that.



Yeah, but he's only hit 5 of 8 FT attempts so far. I like him a lot, as mentioned, but I just doubt that he can shoot.

If it helps, this guy on youtube shows some of Cassius' inconsistency in high school from long range: https://youtu.be/lda1Jtr5koU?t=274 . I've primed the video to 4:34 when the discussion of his shooting struggles begins.

If Duke and Cassius get a little bit of good fortune, I could see him having a Winslow-esque season from three. Winslow probably took a few more than Cassius will (he took over 100 and shot just over 40%), but the vast majority of them were of the extremely wide open variety. Justise was a mediocre-to-poor free throw shooter, had a questionable shot coming out of high school, and has continued to be streaky in the NBA. But he hit a good percentage at Duke because he was only taking them when he was completely unguarded. Granted, the 2015 team had excellent floor spacing after Matt Jones moved into the starting lineup as Tyus, Justise, Matt, and Quinn were all credible shooters surrounding Jah. This year's team won't be able to put THAT many shooters on the court at once, consequently, I'm not sure that Cassius will be completely uncovered on the perimeter as often as Justise was.

However, as long as Cassius picks his spots, I think he stands to get more than few wide open looks thanks to his driving ability and explosive first step. Defenders are going to back off of him. Teams are going to pack the lane. Vernon is going to command double-teams in the post. As long as he anticipates this and is ready to catch and fire away from three, I wouldn't be surprised if he is able to shoot a decent percentage, say 35%+ on 60-70 attempts this season. It doesn't mean that he's a good pure shooter. But hopefully it means that he will make teams pay once or twice per game for leaving him completely unguarded. Like Justise, though, I think Cassius have much better shooting numbers if he's a complementary scorer rather than the primary threat. If one or two of Vernon, Tre, or Matthew are better able to establish themselves as scorers, I think it will help Cassius overall shooting numbers.

(As an aside: Justise was really impressive across the board in 2015. While checking his free throw percentage and three point attempts, I happened to notice that he had a better defensive rebounding rate than Jah AND Amile that season. Defense, rebounding, three point shooting, a little ball-handling, Justise was an absolutely perfect complement to Tyus and Jah.)

flyingdutchdevil
11-12-2019, 02:16 PM
If Duke and Cassius get a little bit of good fortune, I could see him having a Winslow-esque season from three. Winslow probably took a few more than Cassius will (he took over 100 and shot just over 40%), but the vast majority of them were of the extremely wide open variety. Justise was a mediocre-to-poor free throw shooter, had a questionable shot coming out of high school, and has continued to be streaky in the NBA. But he hit a good percentage at Duke because he was only taking them when he was completely unguarded. Granted, the 2015 team had excellent floor spacing after Matt Jones moved into the starting lineup as Tyus, Justise, Matt, and Quinn were all credible shooters surrounding Jah. This year's team won't be able to put THAT many shooters on the court at once, consequently, I'm not sure that Cassius will be completely uncovered on the perimeter as often as Justise was.

However, as long as Cassius picks his spots, I think he stands to get more than few wide open looks thanks to his driving ability and explosive first step. Defenders are going to back off of him. Teams are going to pack the lane. Vernon is going to command double-teams in the post. As long as he anticipates this and is ready to catch and fire away from three, I wouldn't be surprised if he is able to shoot a decent percentage, say 35%+ on 60-70 attempts this season. It doesn't mean that he's a good pure shooter. But hopefully it means that he will make teams pay once or twice per game for leaving him completely unguarded. Like Justise, though, I think Cassius have much better shooting numbers if he's a complementary scorer rather than the primary threat. If one or two of Vernon, Tre, or Matthew are better able to establish themselves as scorers, I think it will help Cassius overall shooting numbers.

(As an aside: Justise was really impressive across the board in 2015. While checking his free throw percentage and three point attempts, I happened to notice that he had a better defensive rebounding rate than Jah AND Amile that season. Defense, rebounding, three point shooting, a little ball-handling, Justise was an absolutely perfect complement to Tyus and Jah.)

Last year, 35% would rank second in 3pt shooting amongst players who shot more than 10 3s all year long (AOC at 37.5%). I'd take 35% in a heartbeat from Stanley. I'm expecting him to shoot 32-33%, which could possibly be top 3 on this team.

robed deity
11-12-2019, 03:02 PM
If Duke and Cassius get a little bit of good fortune, I could see him having a Winslow-esque season from three. Winslow probably took a few more than Cassius will (he took over 100 and shot just over 40%), but the vast majority of them were of the extremely wide open variety. Justise was a mediocre-to-poor free throw shooter, had a questionable shot coming out of high school, and has continued to be streaky in the NBA. But he hit a good percentage at Duke because he was only taking them when he was completely unguarded. Granted, the 2015 team had excellent floor spacing after Matt Jones moved into the starting lineup as Tyus, Justise, Matt, and Quinn were all credible shooters surrounding Jah. This year's team won't be able to put THAT many shooters on the court at once, consequently, I'm not sure that Cassius will be completely uncovered on the perimeter as often as Justise was.

However, as long as Cassius picks his spots, I think he stands to get more than few wide open looks thanks to his driving ability and explosive first step. Defenders are going to back off of him. Teams are going to pack the lane. Vernon is going to command double-teams in the post. As long as he anticipates this and is ready to catch and fire away from three, I wouldn't be surprised if he is able to shoot a decent percentage, say 35%+ on 60-70 attempts this season. It doesn't mean that he's a good pure shooter. But hopefully it means that he will make teams pay once or twice per game for leaving him completely unguarded. Like Justise, though, I think Cassius have much better shooting numbers if he's a complementary scorer rather than the primary threat. If one or two of Vernon, Tre, or Matthew are better able to establish themselves as scorers, I think it will help Cassius overall shooting numbers.

(As an aside: Justise was really impressive across the board in 2015. While checking his free throw percentage and three point attempts, I happened to notice that he had a better defensive rebounding rate than Jah AND Amile that season. Defense, rebounding, three point shooting, a little ball-handling, Justise was an absolutely perfect complement to Tyus and Jah.)

There were a lot of reasons that 2015 team got hot and won the title, but in my brain, Justise Winslow on both ends (as he got healthier) was reason no. 1.

SkyBrickey
11-12-2019, 03:56 PM
I think Stanley, AOC, Carey and Hurt will all shoot 33%+ from 3 and we will shoot 33%+ as a team. At some point this will require Tre, Jack and Wendell to either make shots or dial back their number of attempts. 33% is not great, but it’s good enough given our other strengths as a team.

DukieInBrasil
11-12-2019, 05:07 PM
I think Stanley, AOC, Carey and Hurt will all shoot 33%+ from 3 and we will shoot 33%+ as a team. At some point this will require Tre, Jack and Wendell to either make shots or dial back their number of attempts. 33% is not great, but it’s good enough given our other strengths as a team.

if that quartet can collectively shoot that well, i'll be pleased, but i'm not sold on Stanley fulfilling your and statement. In fact i think that AOC and Hurt will shoot such a higher volume of 3s that it'll lift whatever Stanley shoots above 33%. The early returns look good re: Mr Carey, but i think it's pretty likely he'll also be above 33%. My hope is that Tre can get himself to 30%, but early returns are not good on that one either.
If Hurt and AOC end up shooting pretty well (add in just a pinch of Baker's touch), then i'm hopeful that they can lift the rest of the team, who honestly ought to have a relatively low 3FG volume, above 33% for the year. So, even though my initial reaction was to disagree with you, i remain hopeful that you will end up being mostly right.
To me Carey is kinduva wild card, in that, i wasn't really expecting him to launch 3s very often, but if he ends up taking 1 or more 3s per game, and hits at a decent rate, that would change the complexion of this team.
Even though after 2 games we've shot poorly from 3 (26.1%), if you remove the delinquents who haven't hit 3s yet, and who won't shoot with much frequency (hopefully), those being J-Gold, J-Rob, Javin, and Buckmire, the team is shooting 30%, which is not great, and just a touch below last year's gang that couldn't shoot strait. Not all that encouraging.

HereBeforeCoachK
11-12-2019, 05:24 PM
I think Stanley, AOC, Carey and Hurt will all shoot 33%+ from 3 and we will shoot 33%+ as a team. At some point this will require Tre, Jack and Wendell to either make shots or dial back their number of attempts. 33% is not great, but it’s good enough given our other strengths as a team.

I predict Jack will be back at some point this season with good 3 point shooting. I'm not sold on Tre, or Wendell, at this point (regarding treys)

Troublemaker
11-12-2019, 06:16 PM
It should be noted that at the current very slow rate that Cassius is attempting 3-pters, the difference between season-long 32% vs 35% vs 38% is going to be roughly one extra 3-pter made.

If he really can shoot them at 35%, the first thing I'd like to see is for him to shoot more often.